Tag Archives: Russia

Nigerian Security Services Crackdown on Russian Flag Protesters

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Protests against the corruption of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) in Lagos in the past resemble the current protests across Nigeria over hardship and hunger, but the sight of Russian flags as an anti-government symbol in the north is a radically new development.

“The nationwide protests against hardship and hunger took a dangerous dimension, with protesters in some Northern states waving the Russian flag….”

Russian influence in Francophone West African countries that have experienced military coups in the last few years is a clear trendline. One of the most notable examples of this influence has been the expansion of the Wagner Group – or Africa Corps as the company is now known – in the region. However, the excerpted punch.ng report about Russian flags being seen at anti-government protests in northern Nigeria is a new and unexpected development, and a possible indication that Russian information operations are contributing to a positive image of Russia in parts of Nigeria. This is despite Russia’s dubious counter-insurgency record in the Sahel and its support for anti-democratic military juntas in West Africa.[i] According to the article, certain northern elite politicians provided Russian flags to #EndBadGovernance protesters, who are disappointed with the government’s inability to address hunger and hardship in the country. The article further suggests that these elites seek to remove the current Nigerian president, Bola Tinubu, from power. The Russian flags served as a threat to Tinubu’s administration that what happened to leaders deposed in coups in Francophone West Africa could occur in Nigeria as well. According to the article, the response of the Nigerian military to these Russian flags could lead to an excessive reaction towards the flag holders and their alleged sponsors. The military has a history of cracking down on dissent with excessive violence.[ii] The article quotes top military officials as stating the protesters holding the Russian flags are treasonous could indicate harsh action will be taken against them, including at least 10 protesters and flag makers who have already been arrested.

Sources:

“Russian flag: FG probes four northern political bigwigs,” punch.ng (Lagos-based publication with a southern Nigerian perspective often critical of the government and northern Nigerian powerbrokers) 7 August 2024. https://punchng.com/russian-flag-fg-probes-four-northern-political-bigwigs/

The nationwide protests against hardship and hunger took a dangerous dimension, with protesters in some Northern states waving the Russian flag as they chanted “Tinubu must go.” Russia, an Eastern power currently mired in a cold war with the West, has been blamed for several unconstitutional changes of government in West African countries such as Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, and among others. The Nigerian military said persons flying the Russian flag were committing treason and will, therefore, be “prosecuted”.

This act not only disrespects our national symbols but also commits treasonable felony and related offences. Hence, 10 suspects were arrested flying Russian flags,” Public Relations Officer ASP Buhari Abdullahi stated while parading the suspects.

Notes:

[i] See, for example, Human Rights Watch, “Mali: Army, Wagner Group Atrocities Against Civilians,” 28 March 2024. https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/03/28/mali-army-wagner-group-atrocities-against-civilians

[ii] Just five years ago, in 2019, for example, the Nigerian military cracked down on the Shia Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN) and killed several dozen of its members who had been protesting in the streets and nearly killed their leader, Ibrahim al-Zakaky. He was forced to recover from his injuries while under long-term house arrest. See Faiza Mawani, “Persecution of the Shia Islamic Movement of Nigeria,” October 19, 2020, UAB Institute for Human Rights Blog. https://sites.uab.edu/humanrights/2020/10/19/persecution-of-the-shia-islamic-movement-of-nigeria/

OE Watch Insight:

NGA protesters with RUS flags during anti-govt protests indicate desire to remove NGA president from office as has occurred in other Sahelian states. NGA mil officials allege northern elites sponsor the flags but risk excessively cracking down on flagholders for their “treason.”


Image Information:

Image: Protests against the corruption of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) in Lagos in the past resemble the current protests across Nigeria over hardship and hunger, but the sight of Russian flags as an anti-government symbol in the north is a radically new development.
Source: TobiJamesCandids, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Protest_against_the_Special_Anti-Robbery_Squad_(SARS)_in_Lagos,_Nigeria.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

Armenia Continuing Its Move Away From Russian Reliance

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French Caesar self-propelled howitzer fires into the Middle Euphrates River Valley, 2 December 2018.

“Yerevan and Paris signed a contract for the supply of Caesar self-propelled artillery units, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said.”

Armenia continues taking steps away from Russia by working with other partners. The majority of Armenia’s weapons inventory is made up of Russian systems, leaving the Armenian government largely reliant on Russia. However, the accompanying excerpted articles report that Armenia reached a military-technical cooperation agreement with France in June 2024. The first excerpted article from the independent Russian-language news website Eurasia Daily reports that Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyansigned a military-technical cooperation agreement with the French company KNDS during his visit to France in June. The article notes that Papikyan also met with his French counterpart during his visit, but the details of their meeting were not disclosed. It is also mentioned that Armenia purchased French armored personnel carriers and radar systems in the past year, with negotiations still underway for Armenia to acquire the Mistral 3 short-range air defense system.

The second excerpted article from the independent news website Kavkazskiy Uzel reports that the meeting between the defense ministers of Armenia and France resulted in an agreement for Armenia to purchase an unknown number of French CAESAR 155mm self-propelled artillery systems. The article also includes a statement from Secretary of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan that Armenia has significantly reduced its military-technical cooperation with Russia since 2020.[i] Overall, Armenia’s recent acquisition of the French CAESAR 155mm artillery provides another system of non-Russian origin for the country’s inventory in the short-term, while the military-technical agreement with France could provide additional systems over the next several years. Both will help Armenia rely less on Russia going forward.[ii]

Sources:

“Армения и Франция достигли новых договорённостей в сфере ВТС (Armenia and France reached a new agreement on military-technical cooperation),” Eurasia Daily (an independent Russian-language news website), 18 June 2024.

https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2024/06/18/armeniya-i-franciya-dostigli-novyh-dogovoryonnostey-v-sfere-vts

As part of a working visit of Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan to France, an agreement on military-technical cooperation (MTC) was signed between the Ministry of Defense of the Armenia and the military-industrial company KNDS on 17 June…

Before that, Suren Papikyan met with his French counterpart Sebastien Lecornu…The parties noted the importance of military-technical cooperation, around which new agreements were reached, the Armenian Defense Ministry reported, without disclosing their content…

In October 2023, in Paris, the Ministers of Defense of Armenia and France signed agreements on the supply of weapons to Armenia. France has already supplied Armenia with 24 Bastion armored personnel carriers, with another 26 combat vehicles in the production stage. Yerevan has also placed an order for three GM200 radars, and negotiations are underway on the supply of Mistral 3 portable anti-aircraft missile systems…

“Армения договорилась с Францией о поставке самоходок Caesar (Armenia reached an agreement with France on the delivery of the self-propelled Caesar),” Kavkazskiy Uzel (independent news website reporting on the Caucasus), 18 June 2024.

https://www.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/401043

Yerevan and Paris signed a contract for the supply of Caesar self-propelled artillery units, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said. The document was signed during the visit of Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan to France…

The Caesar self-propelled artillery unit is equipped with a 155-mm cannon and is capable of hitting targets at a distance of 40 kilometers…

In March, Secretary of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan noted that since 2020, Russia’s share in military-technical cooperation has decreased from 96% to less than 10%…

Notes:

[i] In the years since the end of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in November 2020, the government of Armenia stated that it will reduce the number of weapon systems it acquires from Russia, because it does not believe Russia has been a reliable partner.

[ii] Armenia has acquired a few weapon systems from India in the years since, but these were not part of a long-term agreement with India. The systems from India included counter battery radar, multiple rocket launchers, and towed 155mm artillery. For more information on Armenia’s acquisitions of new weapon systems from India, see: Matthew Stein, “Armenia Takes Another Step Away From Russia,” OE Watch, 02-2023.
https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/armenia-takes-another-step-away-from-russia/

OE Insight Summary:

In June 2024, ARM signed a military-technical agreement with FRA, including for the purchase of CAESAR artillery systems. The move marked another example of ARM moving away from RUS as a security cooperation partner since 2023.

Image Information:

 Image: French Caesar self-propelled howitzer fires into the Middle Euphrates River Valley, 2 December 2018.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:French_Caesar_self-propelled_howitzer_in_Iraq.jpg
Attribution: Public Domain

Russia’s Africa Corps Personnel Redeploy From the Sahel to Kursk

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Russian Wagner fighters have been active along the border of Belarus since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2021, but now they are operating along the border with Ukraine, including some who reportedly returned to Russia from Africa.

“He emphasized that the Wagner fighters are returning to Russia, which means that they are being transferred from foreign missions.”

On 28 July, Tuareg rebels in the Coordination of Azawad Movements, a mostly secular Tuareg ethnonationalist militant and political coalition, together with the al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), massacred dozens of Africa Corps fighters (formerly the Wagner Group) and Malian soldiers in northern Mali near the Algerian border.[i] This was the most severe loss of life in a battle for Africa Corps since the mercenary contingent increased its presence on the continent in 2020. It would be politically untenable for Russia to reveal weakness and pressure Africa Corps to fully cut and run from its mission in Mali. However, this disaster in northern Mali and the simultaneous difficulties Russia is facing in responding to the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk on Russian territory could lead to the redeployment of Africa Corps fighters from Mali and the Sahel region to Kursk. This, in turn, could result in a reduction of Russian counter-insurgency support to Mali and Sahelian states, which are already being engulfed by JNIM and its rival Islamic State in Greater Sahara.

This possibility is furthered in the pro-Russian government Russian-language website gazeta.ru, which reported that the Ukrainian offensive into Russia’s Kursk oblast is requiring Russia to call for assistance from Africa Corps. The article notes that Wagner Group, forces are returning from missions abroad to Ukraine and highlights how many Africa Corps fighters died in the ambush by Tuareg rebels and JNIM in Mali on 28 July. It further implies, based on a message from a prominent Russian Telegram user, that Africa Corps fighters who participated in conflicts in Africa would be among those transferred to Kursk. While details about this transfer are scant in the gazeta.ru article, such reports have also emerged from Russian-language websites critical of the Russian government. The second excerpted article in the Moscow Times also claims that Africa Corps fighters are being transferred from Africa to Kursk. The article emphasized that Africa Corps forces were previously sent to “distant” African countries, including Mali, where the junta leader extended the group’s contract. However, after the Russian Army’s encirclement in Kursk, those same forces are needed on the Russian home front. It remains unclear how this massacre and the fighting in Kursk will ultimately affect Africa Corps, but it is likely Africa Corps’ presence—and certainly its confidence—is less sustainable now than at any time in the recent past.

Sources:

“Бойцы «ЧВК Вагнер» прибыли в Курскую область. Что происходит в регионе на четвертые сутки боев? (Wagner ‘PMC fighters’ arrived in Kursk Oblast. What is happening in the region on the fourth day of fighting?),” www.gazeta.ru (Russian-language website that tends to be pro-Russian government but with a focus on social issues often more than politics) 9 August 2024. https://www.gazeta.ru/social/2024/08/09/19545865.shtml

Wagner PMC fighters and Akhmat special forces arrived in Kursk Oblast to join the battles against the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The situation in the region is tense: a State of Smergency was declared, and border area residents of were evacuated. President Putin ordered that help be provided to the population.

Wagner PMC fighters arrived in Kursk Oblast and entered into battles against the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Sudzha, the SHOT Telegram channel reported. The total number of fighters sent to the combat zone was not specified. According to the channel, brigades of the Ministry of Defense’s volunteer corps are also joining in the fighting.

Military correspondent Yegor Guzenko, who publishes under the pseudonym Thirteenth, also reported that fighters from Wagner PMC were sent to the Kursk region. He emphasized that the fighters are returning to Russia, which means that they are being transferred from foreign missions. Recently, Wagner PMC fighters participated in African conflicts, and especially fought against the Tuaregs in Mali. As a result of these battles, the PMC endured losses, which numbered several dozen people.

В Курскую область начали перебрасывать бойцов «Вагнера» из Африки (Wagner fighters from Africa began being transferred to Kursk region), Moscow Times (independent Russian bi-lingual on-line newspaper previously located in Russia, but since relocated to Amsterdam to avoid government sensorship), 8 August 2024. https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/08/08/vkurskuyu-oblast-nachali-perebrasivat-boitsov-vagnera-izafriki-a138964

Russia is transferring Wagner PMC fighters from Africa to the Kursk region amid a successful offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the region, Z-blogger and the Telegram channel “Novorossiya Militia Reports” claim.

At the end of July in Mali, a contingent of government troops and Russian Wagner fighters near the border with Algeria were ambushed by Tuareg rebels. During the battle, Wagner and government troops were destroyed, and the losses of the Russian PMCs alone, according to various sources, may have reached 80 people.

Notes:

[i] Both al-Qaeda-affiliated JNIM and the Tuareg rebel group Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) claimed the massacre of Wagner and Malian army fighters. However, both groups denied any cooperation with each other due to their conflicting Islamist and secular ethno-nationalist ideologies, respectively, if not also the CMA’s desire to receive international support for its cause, which would be jeopardized by any association with an al-Qaeda affiliate. See “Au Mali, le lourd revers des mercenaires russes de Wagner (In Mali, a large setback for Wagner’s Russian mercenaries),” Le Figaro, 29 July 2024. lefigaro.fr/international/au-mali-le-lourd-revers-des-mercenaires-russes-de-wagner-20240729

OE Watch Insight:

Former RUS Wagner paramilitary forces, now referred to as Africa Corps, have been redeployed from MLI to RUS in wake of UKR invasion of RUS’s Kursk region.


Image Information:

Image: Russian Wagner fighters have been active along the border of Belarus since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2021, but now they are operating along the border with Ukraine, including some who reportedly returned to Russia from Africa.
Source: Информационное агентство БелТА, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:PMC_wagner_in_belarus_3.png
Attribution: CC x 2.0

China and Russia Expand Agreement for Arctic Strategic Resource Development

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Russian nuclear-powered icebreaker, the Sabir, in Arctic waters. The Sabir is operated by Rosatom, which was appointed administrative control of the Northern Sea Route infrastructure in 2018.

“The Chinese company will be a main partner in the development of the major lithium field located in the far northern Russian region.”

Russia has signed an agreement with China to partner in the development of a major lithium field in Russia’s far north according to the excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer. It is likely that Russia would like to mine its lithium fields on its own, but the contract demonstrates Russia’s need for a partner. China has already partnered with Russia for Arctic development of oil, LNG, and other resources. The agreement gives China some latitude to exploit territory it would not otherwise have access. At the same time, Russia would be hard-pressed to develop the lithium field without outside capital investment that only China can provide at this time. The partnership agreement also comes at a time when China has shown it is eager to expand its presence in the Arctic and gain access to unexploited Arctic resources.[i]

Sources:

Atle Staalesen and Denis Zagore, “Chinese Developers come to mine lithium in Murmansk”, The Berents Observer,(independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 1 August 2024. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/2024/08/chinese-developers-come-lithium-mine-murmansk

The company MCC International Incorporation Ltd will join the development of the Kolmozerskoye lithium resources in the Kola Peninsula. The Chinese company will be a main partner in the development of the major lithium field located in the far northern Russian region. The company will take part in exploration of resources, development of technology, as well as production, the Russian license holder stated. The accompanying Nornickel Telegram photo is captioned “Hun Ventao, Vice President of Chinese company MCC International Incorporation Ltd signs deal with Igor Demidov, head of the Polar Lithium.”

The Russian edition of the Barents Observer reports that the Kolmozerskoye field is owned by Polar Lithium, a company controlled by Nornickel and Rosatom’s ore mining division. Nornickel’s Telegram channel stated that “The MCC International knows how to project mine processing plants, it possesses its own ore enrichment and lithium production technology.”

The Chinese company will reportedly also take part in the development of battery production.  “The experienced Chinese partner will help us more quickly create a high-tech battery industry in Russia,” according to Nornickel.

According to the developers, the new mine and processing plant are planned to be ready for production in year 2030. It is to be able to annually process up to 2 million tons of ore and produce 45,000 tons of lithium hydroxide and carbonate.

Nornickel is running the major nickel and copper mines and metallurgical plants in and around Monchegorsk, Kola Peninsula. The joint venture with Rosatom’s ore mining division was established in 2021.

Notes:

[i] See: Les Grau, “Chinese Icebreaker Sails to The Arctic,” OE Watch, 09-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/chinese-icebreaker-sails-to-the-arctic/

OE Insight Summary:

CHN and RUS will partner to mine lithium in the Arctic, giving CHN additional access to the Arctic, while providing RUS a much-needed partner.

Image Information:

Image: Russian nuclear-powered icebreaker, the Sabir, in Arctic waters. The Sabir is operated by Rosatom, which was appointed administrative control of the Northern Sea Route infrastructure in 2018.
Source: https://c4.wallpaperflare.com/wallpaper/645/918/543/the-ocean-sea-icebreaker-the-ship-wallpaper-preview.jpg
Attribution: Public Domain

Russian Security Forces Face Rise of Domestic Terrorism Threats

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Russian Ministry of Emergency firefighters standing outside Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, site of a March 2024 terrorism attack.

In June, the FSB’s director, Aleksandr Bortnikov, revealed that the agency had prevented a total of 134 acts of terrorism and sabotage in central Russia alone since the outbreak of the conflict between Moscow and Kiev in February 2022. The country’s security agencies have also dismantled 32 international terrorist cells operating in the country over this period, he stated.

Russia’s Investigative Committee and the Federal Security Service (FSB) announced in early August it had foiled a plot by two Russian religious preachers to recruit fighters of the Islamic State (formerly ISIS) to carry out terrorist attacks inside the country. The plan was to enlist 19 Russian nationals living in the Tyumen region to join a jihadi movement in Syria. According to the excerpted article in the pro-Kremlin Russian news site RT, one of the suspects made public statements condoning terrorism and they urged Russians to send donations to ISIS, which violates Russian laws on material support of terrorism.

This comes amid a new report by the Interior Ministry of the highest number of terrorist crimes in Russia recorded in over two decades, as reported in the second excerpted article, also published by RT. Between January and June of 2024, some 1,651 crimes were reported, a nearly 40 percent spike over the same period the previous year.  In June the director of the FSB, Aleksandr Bortnikov, announced that his agency had foiled 134 acts of terrorism or sabotage this year in central Russia alone, as well as 32 international terrorist cells operating in the country. Even a youth wrestling coach born in Tajikistan was arrested in July for suspicion of abetting terrorist groups.[i] The following month, Ukrainian forces launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, what constituted, according to Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “acts of terrorism.”[ii] Prior to that, last March, one of the deadliest terror attacks in Russia’s history occurred, after four gunmen shot up a concert venue outside Moscow, killing 145, before setting the building on fire. The gunmen were linked to a terrorist outfit known as Islamic State-Khorasan.

The rise in jihadi attacks is due to several factors, including an overextension of Russia’s roughly 360,000-strong Rosgvardiya, or Russian National Guard, a number of whom were carrying out rear-guard missions in Ukraine even before the latest incursion into Kursk.[iii]  The ability to respond to Ukrainian operations and simultaneously address Islamist extremist groups will stretch the Rosgvardiya and Russia’s domestic intelligence services even further.

Sources:

“ISIS recruiters arrested in Russia – security officials,” RT (formerly Russia Today, a Kremlin-back news outlet), 5 August 2024. https://www.rt.com/russia/602155-isis-recruiters-arrested-siberia/

The arrest warrants were executed in Tyumen Region in Western Siberia, Russia’s Investigative Committee and the Federal Security Service (FSB) jointly reported. The two individuals are accused of committing crimes between February 2015 and November 2022.

According to investigators, the pair convinced 19 people living in the region to join jihadists in Syria. One of the suspects allegedly made public statements condoning terrorism. Both urged people to send donations to IS, which amounted to material support of terrorism under Russian law, the statements claimed. Footage released by the FSB indicated that the suspects did not resist arrest. Neither agency has named them.

IS originated from radical Islamist forces in Iraq and came to international prominence after gaining strength in 2014, when it capitalized on the lack of security in the country as well as the turmoil in neighboring Syria. The jihadists’ lightning offensive that year allowed them to capture Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, as well as large swathes of territory in Syria.

The group has since been largely defeated militarily and fractured under local and international pressure, though some splinters remain active, particularly in Afghanistan. Terrorist cells affiliated with IS remain a threat in southern parts of Russia.

“Russia reports record level of terrorism,” RT, (formerly Russia Today, a Kremlin-back news outlet), 3 August 2024. https://www.rt.com/russia/602085-russia-terrorism-crimes-surge/

According to a document posted to the ministry’s official website earlier this week, 1,651 crimes classified as terrorism were recorded in the country in January-June 2024, a nearly 40% increase over the same period in 2023. The ministry noted that for the same period from 2006 to 2023, the figure did not reach 1,400. The previous record high was registered in the first half of 2022, when 1,332 terrorism-linked crimes were recorded.

Crimes associated with extremist activities have also reached a record high. From January to June, 819 such crimes were registered, a nearly 12% increase year-on-year. This figure had not surpassed 800 since 2018.

Crimes designated as terror-linked in Russia include making preparations for carrying out a terrorist attack, public calls for terrorism and justification of terrorism, as well as hostage-taking. Extremist crimes include those committed on the basis of political, ideological, racial, national or religious hatred, or enmity towards any social group.

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) routinely makes public information on foiled terror plots, often describing the suspects as people linked with either Islamist terrorist groups or Ukrainian nationalists or collaborators.

In June, the FSB’s director, Aleksandr Bortnikov, revealed that the agency had prevented a total of 134 acts of terrorism and sabotage in central Russia alone since the outbreak of the conflict between Moscow and Kiev in February 2022. The country’s security agencies have also dismantled 32 international terrorist cells operating in the country over this period, he stated.Russia saw one of the deadliest terror attacks in its history this past March, when four gunmen went on a shooting rampage at the Crocus City Hall concert venue outside Moscow. The attackers shot everyone in sight before setting the building on fire. The tragedy left 145 people dead and over 500 injured. A terrorist organization known as Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K) claimed responsibility for the attack, but the FSB has alleged that Kiev was behind the massacre, possibly using Islamists as proxies.

Notes:

[i] “Russian youth wrestling coach changed with terrorism offenses,” RT, 4 July 2024. https://www.rt.com/russia/600432-russian-wrestling-coach-terrorism/

[ii] “Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova’s comment on events around Ukraine,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, 14 August 2024. https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1965546/

[iii] Mark Galeotti, “In Moscow’s Shadows,” Episode 153: Geopolitics, Nepotism, Terrorism, and Sabotage, 30 June 2024. https://inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/15334481-in-moscow-s-shadows-153-geopolitics-nepotism-terror-and-assassination-all-the-nice-things

OE Insight Summary: 

The breakup of an alleged Islamic State recruitment ring in western Siberia has rattled RUS security forces, given the country’s recent spike in terrorist attacks.

Image Information:

Image: Russian Ministry of Emergency firefighters standing outside Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, site of a March 2024 terrorism attack.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2024_Crocus_City_Hall_terrorist_attack_5.jpg
Attribution: Пресс-служба Губернатора Московской области (Press Office for Governor of Moscow Oblast)

Russia Creating New Officer Academies to Support Armed Forces Expansion

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Saratov Higher Artillery Command School.

“Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed an order to establish the Saratov Higher Artillery Command School.”

In December 2022, Russia announced that it would increase the number of uniformed personnel in the Ministry of Defense from approximately 1 million to 1.5 million personnel at a Collegium of the Russian Ministry of Defense, attended by President Putin, former Minister of Defense General Shoigu, and Chief of the General Staff General Gerasimov.[i]  At this event, and by way of subsequent pronouncements, Russia has made it clear that it will not revert back to its previous end strength when its special military operation ends.[ii] Although Russia has had to resort to partial mobilization to fill its ranks for the ongoing war in Ukraine, permanently raising the end-strength to 1.5 million will almost certainly entail recruiting more contract personnel and increasing the standard one-year conscription period to two years. It will also involve adding additional officers. In the Soviet/Russian system, inducting and training enlisted personnel can be done relatively quickly, but officer accessions are a different matter. Officers are typically only trained at specialized 4-to-5-year academies making the officer creation pipeline a long one.  This is problematic for Russia, as it shuttered many officer academies during major reforms in the early 2010s, so it does not have institutional training capacity to train the necessary number of officers for a 1.5 million personnel force.  The accompanying excerpted article from Russian newspaper Izvestiya, discusses how Russia is reopening military officer academies to support an expansion of the force that will likely not be fully implemented until well after the special military operation ends.

Sources:

“Мишустин поручил создать Саратовское высшее артиллерийское командное училище (Mishustin orders creation of Saratov Higher Artillery Command School),” Izvestiya (daily Russian newspaper), 8 July 2024.  https://iz.ru/1724553/2024-07-08/mishustin-poruchil-sozdat-saratovskoe-vysshee-artilleriiskoe-komandnoe-uchilishche

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed an order to establish the Saratov Higher Artillery Command School. The document was signed on July 6 and published on the official legal information portal on July 8.

“To create a federal state military educational institution of higher education, the Saratov Higher Artillery Command School, of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation,” the document states.

The staffing level of military and civilian personnel at the school should be 6,000 personnel…Several more military academies may be created in Ulyanovsk. As Governor Alexey Russkikh reported on social networks in February, the issue has already been discussed with representatives of the Ministry of Defense. Thus, an inter-university military training center may be created in the city. Its base may be the former educational building of the Suvorov School in Krasnoznamenny Lane. In addition, a higher school of military transport aviation is planned to be located in Ulyanovsk on the basis of a former technical school.

Notes:

[i] “Изменение призывного возраста и увеличение армии. Путин и Шойгу выступили в Минобороны (Changing the conscription age and increasing the size of the Army: Putin and Shoigu spoke at the Ministry of Defense),” TASS, 21 December 2022.  https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/16655079

[ii] Moscow uses the term spetsial’naya voyennaya operatsiya (“special military operation”) or spetsoperatsiya (“special operation”) to describe its campaign in Ukraine.

OE Insight Summary:

RUS creating new officer academies to support expansion of the Russian Armed Forces to 1,500,000 uniformed personnel.

Image Information:

Image: Saratov Higher Artillery Command School
Source: https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Саратовское_высшее_военное_командно-инженерное_училище_ракетных_войск#/media/Файл:Артиллерийская_ул_2_Саратов.jpg 
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0

Rumors of Russian Military Cargo Activity Underscore Tunisia’s Eastward Turn Away From the United States

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Tunisian President Kais Saied on Inauguration Day, 23 October 2019.

“Kais Saied is a ripe fruit waiting to fall into the hands of the Russians”

Summary: Recent rumors of Russian military cargo flights into Tunisia highlight President Kais Saied’s “eastward turn”— including toward China and Iran — and the potential erosion of Tunisia’s security partnership with the United States.

On 19 May, the Italian daily La Repubblica published a report claiming that Russia may be using a Tunisian airport to transport military equipment, raising questions about Moscow’s designs in the country. Russia exerts substantial military influence in both Libya and Algeria, Tunisia’s neighboring countries.[i] Tunisia, however, is a historical Western security partner in which Russia has traditionally had little to no military influence. The rumors of Russian activities in Tunisia may not amount to much, but they should nonetheless be taken seriously in light of evident Russian attempts to deepen its influence in Libya and the Sahel,[ii] along with Tunisian President Kais Saied’s seeming “eastward turn.”

The report suggests that entities linked to Russia’s Wagner Group had flown equipment and personnel into the international airport of Djerba, a southern Tunisian island popular with local travelers and European package tourists.[iii] There is no open-source evidence supporting claims of Russian military-related movements in Djerba, but speculation among Tunisians is nonetheless rife, as noted in the first accompanying excerpt, from the Qatari-aligned English-language daily al-Araby al-Jadeed. Theories on Russian activities in Djerba include that former Wagner personnel are vacationing in Djerba; that Russia is “transporting migrants to overwhelm Tunisia’s border crossing points”; or that the planes are transporting “personnel and crates of vodka for Russian soldiers on leave in Tunisia.” The Russian embassy was quick to ridicule claims of any military connection to these flights, as shown in the second accompanying excerpt, from the Russian Embassy in Libya’s Facebook page. The week after the publication on Russian flights to Djerba, President Saied flew to Tehran to attend Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi’s state funeral. The last time a Tunisian head of state visited Iran was 1965. The following week, Saied flew to Beijing to attend the China-Arab Cooperation Forum. While Saied’s recent engagement with Iran and China has been more overt than any gestures toward Russia, most analysts see these developments as part of a broader eastward turn in Saied’s foreign policy. Saied’s eastward turn, particularly toward China, as largely motivated by economics explains a Tunisian political activist cited in the third accompanying excerpt, from Qatar’s al-Jazeera. However, there are also ideological affinities between members of Saied’s inner circle and Iranian political leadership.[iv] This confluence of circumstances, according to a Tunisian researcher cited in the fourth accompanying excerpt, from the Kuwaiti daily al-Jarida, makes Saied’s Tunisia a “ripe fruit waiting to fall into the hands of the Russians.”

Sources:

“Tunisia: alleged Russian military activity in Djerba raises concerns,” The New Arab (Qatari-aligned daily), 24 May 2024, https://www.newarab.com/news/tunisia-alleged-russian-military-activity-raises-concerns

Theories on the suspicious events at Djerba airport have become a “culture de trottoir” in Tunisia for months. Some speculate it involves Wagner personnel, while others suggest it’s about vodka shipments. According to some Tunisian analysts, these aircraft are believed to be “cargo planes” and civilian “charters,” not the military aircraft mentioned by La Repubblica. Some sources claim that the aircraft transported Russians affiliated with the former security company Wagner (now “Africa Corps”), who came to rest on the island of Djerba. Others suggest they transported personnel and crates of vodka for Russian soldiers on leave in Tunisia. A far more speculative hypothesis suggests that some aircraft might be transporting migrants to overwhelm Tunisia’s border crossing points, thereby creating a crisis. Wagner’s presence in neighbouring Libya mainly fueled all these rumours… While rumours continue circulating, one thing may seem to be agreed on: Russian aircraft have been seen on Djerba Island. President Kais Saied, known for publicly addressing rumours targeting his country, has refrained from commenting on the situation at Djerba airport.

Russian Embassy in Libya, Facebook Page, 20 May 2024, https://www.facebook.com/RussEmbLib/posts/122143879226177351

Now the Italian “La Repubblica,” having clearly decided to keep up with the task of creating and replicating horror stories about “Wagner,” scares the inexperienced reader with the idea of ​​​​Russian combat aircraft at the airport of the tourist island of Djerba in Tunisia, neighboring Libya. One can only envy their imagination. But as a reaction, we have to say: this is a lie and a fake. A complete lack of respect for the reader, whether in Italy or abroad.

توجه تونس شرقا.. خطة للانسلاخ من الغرب أم مناورة؟

“Tunisia’s eastward orientation… a plan to ditch the West or a maneuver?” al-Jazeera (Qatari news channel), 4 June 2024, https://www.aljazeera.net/politics/2024/6/4/%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%AC%D9%87-%D8%AA%D9%88%D9%86%D8%B3-%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82%D8%A7-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AE-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%BA%D8%B1%D8%A8

Political activist Ahmed Al-Kahlawi views the Tunisian-Chinese rapprochement as an important step taken by President Saied to revive historical relations with China, stressing that the Tunisian orientation towards the East was dictated by the economic difficulties that the country is experiencing as a result of dysfunctional cooperation to benefit the interests of Western powers. Al-Kahlawi told Al-Jazeera Net that President Saied chose to lead Tunisia to establish new partnerships with the East because he was certain that Tunisia would reap many economic and investment advantages, especially with China, the rising economic power, considering that Tunisia would achieve great growth that would free it from the hegemony of Western countries.

تونس بين التوجه شرقاً أو الحفاظ على حلفها مع الغرب

“Tunisia between an eastward turn and maintaining its alliance with the West,” al-Jarida (Kuwaiti daily), 30 May 2024, https://www.aljarida.com/article/64205For his part, Tunisian researcher at the Institute for Defense and Security Studies, Jalal Harchaoui, explained that in a context characterized by Russian penetration of the Sahel region and Libya, “Kais Saied is a ripe fruit waiting to fall into the hands of the Russians.”

Notes:

[i] See: Lucas Winter, “Russia Uses Diplomacy To Increase Military Influence In Libya,” OE Watch, 10-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/russia-uses-diplomacy-to-increase-military-influence-in-libya/; Lucas Winter, “Algeria Seeks Non-Alignment By Preserving Russia Ties While Welcoming NATO Overtures,” OE Watch, 03-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/algeria-seeks-non-alignment-by-preserving-russia-ties-while-welcoming-nato-overtures/; Lucas Winter, “Algerian Military Deepening Ties To Russia,” OE Watch, 09-2022. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2022/algerian-military-deepening-ties-to-russia/

[ii] See: Lucas Winter, Jason Warner, and Amelia Cheatham. “Instruments of Russian Military Influence in Burkina Faso,” Foreign Military Studies Office M-DIME Report, January 2024, https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/burkina-faso-russia-m-dime-report/;  Lucas Winter, Jason Warner, and Amelia Cheatham. “Instruments of Chinese Military Influence in Burkina Faso,” Foreign Military Studies Office M-DIME Report, January 2024, https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/burkina-faso-china-m-dime-report/; Lucas Winter, Jason Warner, and Christopher Betts. “Instruments of Russian Military Influence in Mali,” Foreign Military Studies Office M-DIME Report, June 2024, Lucas Winter, Jason Warner, and Christopher Betts. “Instruments of Chinee Military Influence in Mali,” Foreign Military Studies Office M-DIME Report, June 2024. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/mali-china-m-dime-report-2/

[iii] The La Repubblica article is unavailable without a subscription. It can be found at: https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2024/05/19/news/aerei_militari_russi_tunisia_allarme_usa_migranti_saied_timori_governo_meloni-423030975

[iv] Per Le Monde, “certain circles surrounding Saied have long-standing links with the Islamic Republic,” in particular his brother Naoufel Saied. “Tunisia: Kais Saied’s inclination to turn to Iran,” Le Monde, 25 May 2024. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2024/05/25/tunisia-kais-saied-s-inclination-to-turn-to-iran_6672647_124.html

OE Insight Summary:

Recent rumors of RUS military cargo flights into TUN highlight President Kais Saied’s seeming “eastward turn”— including toward CHN and IRN— and the potential erosion of TUN’s security relationship with USA.

Image Information:

Image: Tunisian President Kais Saied on Inauguration Day, 23 October 2019.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kaïs_Saïd_2.jpg
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

Kazakhstan Imposes New Language Requirements for Citizens

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Statue of man and camels from Türkistan, Kazakistan.

“Knowledge of the language is necessary,” Interior Ministry spokesman Shyngys Alekeshev told reporters, adding that the new amendments were similar to those in countries like Germany, Canada and Turkey.”

Summary: Kazakhstan imposes stricter language requirements for naturalized citizens to reduce the role of Russia in Kazakhstani society.

Kazakhstan has made it stricter for noncitizens to become naturalized citizens by requiring applicants to pass a series of history and language tests. According to the excerpted article from state-run news outlet Kazinform, “ignorance of the state language… as well as the basics of the history and Constitution… can become grounds for refusal to admit citizenship.” The move is part of a broader push by the government to promote and preserve the Kazakh language and possibly distance itself from Russian influence. The move comes amid remarks made by Russian commentators and academics who have called into question the legitimacy and sovereignty of Kazakhstan as a country. It may be interpreted as a move to reduce the role of the Russian language in schools, business, and other aspects of Kazakhstani life. In January, a Russian historian, Mikhail Smolin, claimed on Russia’s state-owned television that Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan did not exist as nations.[i] The charge drew widespread condemnation in the region.

The new language rules, under the leadership of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, are just one manifestation of Kazakstan’s pivot away from Russia toward other regional powers like China. Part of the Soviet legacy, particularly along its northern border with Russia, large portions of Kazakhstan’s population do not speak Kazakh. There are proposals underway to regulate the country’s media to require that a majority (55 percent) of all content on radio and television be broadcast in Kazakh by 2025. The widely heard phrase “Qazaqsha soyle” (Speak Kazakh) is now commonly heard on the street and has even emerged as an internet meme.

Tokayev has defined his “multi-vector” foreign policy as one of pragmatism defined by “national interests and strategic tasks.”[ii] Russian soft power and influence is arguably on the wane in Kazakhstan, whose youthful population – half of its population is under the age of 30 – did not grow up under the Soviet Union and have absorbed the “de-colonization” discourse ascendant among other countries in the Global South.[iii]

Sources:

“Ignorance of the state language at the elementary level can prevent admission to citizenship of the Republic of Kazakhstan – Ministry of Internal Affairs,” (Незнание госязыка на элементарном уровне может помешать в приеме в гражданство РК- МВД),” Kazinform (Kazakhstani state news agency) 20 May, 2024. https://www.inform.kz/ru/neznanie-gosyazika-na-elementarnom-urovne-mozhet-pomeshat-v-prieme-v-grazhdanstvo-rk-mvd-0aabd6

“Ignorance of the state language at the elementary level, as well as the basics of the history and Constitution of our country can become grounds for refusal to admit citizenship. The elementary level will be determined by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education. The purpose of the amendments is rapid adaptation and integration into society. Knowledge of the language is first of all necessary for the citizens themselves who want to obtain our citizenship in order to quickly join society and participate in the life of the state,” said Shyngys Alekeshev at a briefing in the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

“To prevent dual citizenship, a new basis for registering the loss of citizenship of the Republic of Kazakhstan is being introduced. Citizenship of our country will be lost if the passports of another state are used after acquiring citizenship of Kazakhstan. Previously, it was planned to lose citizenship of the Republic of Kazakhstan only for the acquisition of citizenship of a foreign state,” added Shyngys Alekeshev.

Notes:

[i] “Russian historian Mikhail Smolin: ‘Uzbekistan did not exist at all before the revolution’,” Anhor.uz (online Uzbek newspaper), 23 January 2024. https://anhor.uz/news/there-were-no-uzbeks/

[ii] “President Tokayev: Kazakhstan Continues Constructive, Balanced Foreign Policy Considering National Interests,” The Astana Times (English-language weekly), 3 January 2024.

https://astanatimes.com/2024/01/president-tokayev-kazakhstan-continues-constructive-balanced-foreign-policy-considering-national-interests

[iii] In May 2022, months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not a single leader of Central Asia commemorated Victory Day in Moscow—a symbolic blow to the Kremlin and a demonstration of the region’s growing autonomy. See: Temur Umarov, “Kazakhstan is Breaking out of Russia’s Grip,” Foreign Policy, 22 September 2022. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/16/kazakhstan-russia-ukraine-war/

OE Insight Summary: 

KAZ is set to impose tougher Kazakh language requirements to obtain citizenship, which some interpret as a slight at Moscow and a move to assert greater autonomy.

Image Information:

Image: Statue of man and camels from Türkistan, Kazakistan
Source: Ekrem Osmanoglu, Unsplash, https://unsplash.c om/photos/statue-of-man-and-camels-during-daytime-2qbAZ7RGPNM
Attribution: Free to use under the Unsplash License

Russia Demonstrating Power Projection Capabilities With Havana Port Call

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An Admiral Gorshkov class frigate at sea was part of the five Russian warships that paid a port of call to Cuba in June 2024.

“Cuba is Russia’s most important partner in the Western Hemisphere from a purely geopolitical and geostrategic point of view.”

Summary: The Russian government has sent a flotilla of three warships and one nuclear-powered submarine to port in Havana, Cuba. Its stated intentions are both to punish Western countries for supporting Ukraine and to display its own power projection capabilities. 

Latin America holds an important place in Russia’s foreign and defense policy.[i] Most importantly, Latin America is a key battleground for pushing back against the United States’ operations in the European theater—specifically Ukraine.

According to the excerpted article in the Spanish daily El País, the recent port call of four Russian naval vessels in Havana, Cuba should be seen within this context. Prior to arriving in Cuba, the three surface warships and a nuclear-powered submarine participated in missile exercises in the Atlantic Ocean. While Russia’s Navy had been visiting the Caribbean more frequently in the past, COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine have curtailed the number of these visits. El País also reports that once the Russian warships leave Cuba they will conduct exercises in the Caribbean before continuing onwards to Venezuela. The Cuban government was quick to point out that none of the vessels are nuclear armed. However, as reported in the second excerpted article by the Argentine outlet Infobae, Russians assured the media that the submarine carried hypersonic missiles. Furthermore, Infobae concluded that the timing of the visits was not mere coincidence: the visit came approximately one week after Russian President Vladimir Putin mused about placing weapons in countries close to the United States in response to  Washington’s support of Ukraine.

This development is significant because it reaffirms Russia’s close ties with Cuba and Venezuela and indicates that Russia continues to view Latin America as a central region in near-peer competition. It is also notable that regional responses to the visit have been muted. Few Latin American governments have said anything publicly—possibly a harbinger of broader Russian influence in keeping Latin American countries non-aligned on geopolitical issues.[ii]

Sources:

“Llega al puerto de La Habana una flotilla de buques de guerra rusos con un submarino nuclear (A flotilla of Russian warships arrives at the port of Havana with a nuclear submarine),” El País (a Spanish daily with excellent regional coverage), 12 June 2024. https://elpais.com/america/2024-06-12/llega-al-puerto-de-la-habana-una-flotilla-de-buques-de-guerra-rusos-con-un-submarino-nuclear.html

Until June 17, the ships will remain in Cuban waters…Before arriving in Havana, the Russian ships carried out exercises and maneuvers in the Atlantic. These are not the first naval maneuvers involving Cuba and Russia. In July the Russian Navy training ship Perekop spent several days in Havana. The frigate Almirante Gorshkov was there in 2019…Cuba is Russia’s most important partner in the Western Hemisphere from a purely geopolitical and geostrategic point of view and the meaning of this naval presence is not essentially different from the past: Russia wants to demonstrate that its navy is capable of crossing the oceans and reaching the coasts of Florida.

“Cuba profundiza su relación con Rusia: tres buques de guerra y un submarino llegarán a La Habana para ejercicios militares (Cuba deepens its relationship with Russia: three warships and a submarine will arrive in Havana for military exercises),” Infobae (an Argentine outlet with excellent regional coverage), 6 June 2024. https://www.infobae.com/america/mundo/2024/06/06/cuba-profundiza-su-relacion-con-rusia-tres-buques-de-guerra-y-un-submarino-llegaran-a-la-habana-para-ejercicios-militares/  

Although the military maneuvers have been planned in advance, they follow the words of the President of Russia about possible retaliation due to Ukrainian attacks against Russian territory with Western weapons. The president mentioned the possibility of Moscow delivering military material to other countries to carry out ‘attacks against sensitive targets’ of Kyiv’s partners.

Notes:

[i] For more information on how Russia views Latin America, especially in the context of its war against Ukraine, see: Ryan C. Berg et al., “Two Years Later: LAC and Russia’s War in Ukraine,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 22 February 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/two-years-later-lac-and-russias-war-ukraine

[ii] To read more about Russia’s strategy and how Latin America has remained relatively silent on Russia’s recent activities, and especially its war in Ukraine, see: Ryan C. Berg et al., “A Hesitant Hemisphere: How Latin America has been Shaped by the War in Ukraine,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 22 February 27 2023. https://www.csis.org/analysis/hesitant-hemisphere-how-latin-america-has-been-shaped-war-ukraine

OE Insight Summary:

RUS government sends flotilla of three warships and one nuclear-powered submarine to port in Havana, CUB. Stated intentions are to punish Western countries for support of Ukraine and display power projection capabilities. 

Image:

Image: An Admiral Gorshkov [RG1] class frigate at sea was part of the five Russian warships that paid a port of call to Cuba in June 2024.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_frigate_Admiral_Gorshkov – /media/File:Admiral_Gorshkov_frigate_03.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

 [RG1]WEG Name: Admiral-Gorshkov Class (Project 22350 Class) Russian Frigate

WEG Link: https://odin.tradoc.army.mil/WEG/Asset/f47d39c5501f875d0c0e85489359679a

Russian Drift Station Vital to Arctic Research Effort

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Admiralty Shipyards in St Petersburg, Russia built the Severny Polyus drift station.

“Since it set out from St.Petersburg in early September 2022, the Severny Polyus (“North Pole”) has drifted more than 3,000 nautical miles through the sea-ice from the East Siberian Sea to the Greenland Sea.”

Summary: Russia is using a large drift station called Severney Polyus (North Pole) in the Arctic to gather information.

The Arctic has always been important to Russia[i] and according to the excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer, Russia is conducting Arctic research using a large drift station, the Severny Polyus, or North Pole.[ii] The Severney Polyus is a self-propelled platform vessel that houses 34 scientists, 15 laboratories, and crew on board and is designed to autonomously drift through Arctic sea ice for up to two years. According to Russian Minister of Natural Resources, Aleksandr Kozlov, the data collected from the Severney Polyus will form the basis for “understanding of climate change and climate prognosis, development of climate adaptation measures, they are important for providing security to shipping on the Northern Sea Route.” The article notes that Russia’s new Marine Doctrine includes the use of civilian ships and infrastructure for military purposes, including not only trawlers and icebreakers, but also platforms like the Severney Polyus. The deployment of the Severney Polyus to conduct Arctic research is yet another indication of Russia’s vision of the operational environment in the Arctic region, giving Russia a continued presence in the vital region.

Sources:

Atle Staalesen, “Russia says its North Pole platform is key to understanding climate change,” The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 23 May 2024. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/2024/05/russia-says-its-north-pole-platform-key-understanding-climate-change

Since it set out from St.Petersburg in early September 2022, the Severny Polyus (“North Pole”) has drifted more than 3,000 nautical miles through the sea-ice from the East Siberian Sea to the Greenland Sea. On board has been a crew of 16 and a research team of 34.  The ship in late April made it out of the ice north of Svalbard and in early May sailed southwards.  On the 10th of May it was located to the west of the Ice Fjord at Svalbard and shortly later made it to the waters north of the Bear Island. For unclear reasons, the vessel for several days stayed in the waters of the Bear Island before it proceeded towards Murmansk.

According to Russian Minister of Natural Resources Aleksandr Kozlov, the Severny Polyus offers Russia unique insights into the Arctic.  “With the start of the operations of the self-propelled and ice-protected platform Russia has gotten the possibility to undertake long-term scientific experiments on high latitudes,” Kozlov said in a comment delivered in connection with the arrival of the Severny Polyus in Murmansk.

“The researchers have access to 50 types of research work: from meteorology to geophysics, glaciology, seismology and aerology. The data will form the basis for understanding of climate change and climate prognosis, development of climate adaptation measures, they are important for providing security to shipping on the Northern Sea Route.”  Kozlov has been Minister of Natural Resources since 2000 and was reappointed in May 2024.  He has also been closely engaged in natural resource cooperation with several foreign countries, among them China and North Korea.

…In the course of the 20-month expedition, the geologists took a number of samples from the Arctic seabed.  The samples will be used as part of Russia’s efforts to expand its borders on the Arctic shelf, representatives of the expedition say.

The Severny Polyus is designed to be able to autonomously drift through Arctic sea-ice for up to two years.  On board are 15 labs where researchers can work year-round.  The ship is operated by Russia’s meteorological service Roshydromet…

The research platform has replaced Russia’s Arctic expeditions based on ice floes organized since the 1930s.  The quickly vanishing Arctic sea-ice made it increasingly hard to organize the expeditions and the last real ice station, the “North Pole-40”, was held in the winter of 2012.

Albeit built for research purposes, the Severny Polyus  could ultimately also be applied by the Russian military.  The country’s new Marine Doctrine includes a high stress on use of civilian ships and infrastructure for military purposes.  That could include not only trawler and icebreakers, but also the Severniy Polus.“The researchers have access to 50 types of research work: from meteorology to geophysics, glaciology, seismology and aerology.  The data will form the basis for understanding of climate change and climate prognosis, development of climate adaptation measures, they are important for providing security to shipping on the Northern Sea Route” Kozlov explained….

Notes:

[i] Russia began exploring the Arctic in the 11th century.  Trans-Artic navigation continued into the 16th century during voyages to Spitzbergen-Gruman and Novaya Zemlya. In 1764-1776, Captain Chichagov attempted an expedition across the North Pole to the Pacific Ocean. Chichagov’s attempt failed, but much scientific knowledge on the Arctic waters were gained.

[ii] In 1902, Fritjof Nansen, a famous Norwegian Arctic explorer, proposed the idea of a scientific drifting ice station to chart the Arctic waters. In the 1930s, Soviet scientists conducted studies of the Arctic on drifting ships. In 1937, the Soviets built a drifting ice station, “North Pole 1,” on an Arctic ice floe supported by Soviet aviation, followed by “North Pole 2”and so on until “North Pole 40” was built. North Pole 40 had to be evacuated in 2013 as the ice floe was breaking up.

OE Watch Insight:

RUS is using a large drift station called Severney Polyus (North Pole) in the Arctic to gather information.

Image Information:

Image: Admiralty Shipyards in St Petersburg, Russia built the Severny Polyus drift station
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admiralty_Shipyards – /media/File:Admiralty_Shipyard.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 3.0