“IRGC Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini speaking at an armed forces presser for the Eghtedar drill,” Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (state broadcaster), 6 January 2025.

“We tell the enemy that we are always ready to act at the moment, we are not complacent and procrastinators. When the command is given, we will demonstrate our power as before and change the enemy’s cognition and calculations once again.”

Despite the severe weakening of the Iran-led Resistance Axis[i] in recent months, Tehran continues to seek to show itself projecting power. According to state broadcaster Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, on 6 January, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spokesman and deputy of public relations Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini said, “We tell the enemy that we are always ready to act at the moment,” adding, “When the command is given, we will demonstrate our power as before and change the enemy’s cognition and calculations once again.” The comments were made at an armed forces presser for the Eghtedar drill[ii] on the fifth anniversary of the U.S. assassination of IRGC Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani.

Naeini emphasized that Iran’s enemies—the United States and Israel—have “a false enthusiasm and misconception” of recent regional developments. Particularly, he noted their use of “psychological and cognitive warfare” to hide the truth, which, in Tehran’s mind, is that it continues to be in a position of strength. Naeini appeared to be referring to the major setbacks experienced by Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, as well as the ouster of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. Despite these major blows to the Resistance Axis, the IRGC spokesman argued, “We never had an intelligence defeat from the enemy. It’s the enemy that always engages with cognitive warfare to make up for its intelligence and military defeats.”

Naeini, presumably taking note that morale was low after Assad’s downfall, emphasized that “Today’s generation of the armed forces is more revolutionary and anti-American than the previous generations” and that it will continue to sacrifice itself for the “Iranian people” and the “oppressed worldwide.” Par for the course of commentary coming out of Tehran for the past four decades, the United States and Israel are to blame for the breakdown of the Resistance Axis.

Sources:

“برای امنیت ایران هر اقدام نظامی متعارفی انجام می‌دهی (For Iran’s security any military action will be done),” Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (state broadcaster), 6 January 2025. https://www.iribnews.ir/00IZ2n.

According to IRIB, the full statement of deputy of public relations and spokesman [of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini]…

We also commemorate the fifth anniversary of the martyrdom of IRGC Commander Qasem Soleimani and his comrades…

In the past few weeks, due to new developments in the region, a false enthusiasm and misconception have formed in the enemy (the United States and Israel), and the enemy has tried with cognitive warfare to portray the ongoing developments as a weakening of Iran’s power. We know the reality is something else.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has long been fully prepared for large, complex, and heavy battles on any scale. We trust in the infinite divine power and our endogenous strength, especially the people-based deterrent power…

The dear nation of Iran should know that the enemy has never had an advantage over us in any battle. We never had an intelligence defeat from the enemy. It’s the enemy that always engages with cognitive warfare to make up for its intelligence and military defeats against the Islamic Republic of Iran to weaken its national spirit.

We are in an environment of psychological and cognitive warfare.

Every day, the enemy creates issues and casts doubt to influence national will and spirit. We tell the enemy that we are always ready to act at the moment, we are not complacent and procrastinators. When the command is given, we will demonstrate our power as before and change the enemy’s cognition and calculations once again…

Supporting the broad resistance front and developing global basij cores are key principles of the Islamic Republic of Iran and is a serious agenda for the IRGC in realizing Islamic civilization. The enemy’s military threats have increased the convergence of society and made our armed forces more synergic and integrated. The IRGC moves to strengthen the foundations of security and national power by solidifying its combined power infrastructure with the people and for the people.

Today’s generation of the armed forces is more revolutionary and anti-American than the previous generations. Unity and empathy in the IRGC have always been a thorn in the enemy’s side. The culture of obedience in the IRGC is based on Quranic culture and the path of leadership. The IRGC considers itself sacrificing its life for the Iranian people and the oppressed worldwide, and the power exercises conducted by the IRGC show the determination and readiness of Islam’s guardians to defend Iran’s sovereignty and ensure the peace and security of the Iranian people.

Notes:

^[i] The Axis of Resistance is a self-described informal coalition of Iranian supported militias and political organizations across the Middle East. The Axis includes Hamas in Gaza, the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon; the Houthi movement in Yemen; and various Shi’ite armed groups in Iraq and Syria. See: “What is Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’?,” Reuters (global news service), 13 April 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/what-is-irans-axis-resistance-which-groups-are-involved-2024-01-29/

[ii] The Eqtedar drill is part of a larger joint air defense exercise. See: “Iran Launches ‘Eqtedar 1403’ (Great Prophet 19) Drills Near Natanz Nuclear Facility,” Islamic World News, 7 January 2025. https://english.iswnews.com/37209/iran-launches-eqtedar-1403-great-prophet-19-drills-near-natanz-nuclear-facility/

Image Information:

Image: “IRGC Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini speaking at an armed forces presser for the Eghtedar drill,” Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (state broadcaster), 6 January 2025.
Source: https://www.iribnews.ir/00IZ2n
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl

The Tehran headquarters of Tavanir, a subsidiary electricity company of Iran’s Ministry of Electricity.

“There will be electricity cuts in the domestic and commercial sectors.”

While Iran boasts the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves after Russia, it is increasingly difficult for it to provide enough supply to its electrical generating stations to power its electric grid. The problem is especially severe in the winter as consumption increases. Iran’s failure to provide electricity has ramifications for domestic stability and could affect the larger regional operational environment.[i]

The excerpted notice, first posted on the Iranian Ministry of Electricity’s website, noted that there will be forthcoming power disruptions, partially due to the decision not to use mazut. This heavy, low-quality fuel oil is a byproduct of refining but degrades electrical generating plants and causes heavy air pollution. President Masoud Pezeshkian’s decision to shutter mazut-burning plants suggests regime fear of popular backlash to air pollution trumps the discord of suffering power cuts.[ii] He is right to worry; Iran has experienced nationwide protests over poor stewardship of the environment.[iii]

While Iranian analysts place responsibility for the energy shortfall on growing consumption, especially during the cold winter months, such an explanation may be too straightforward and exculpatory toward the regime: Iran’s population growth rate is only 0.8 percent. More likely is that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which dominates the power industry, is diverting resources for its own aims and agendas. It is unclear if the pending energy cuts will spare the IRGC’s manufacturing base, but, if so, it will likely spark popular antagonism against the elite military force and its domination of Iran’s industrial sector.

Because Iran’s refinery network is decrepit, Iran cannot adequately refine gasoline domestically. This forces the regime to export gas for refining and then reimport it for use in power generation and to inject into oil fields to enable further oil extraction. This creates a lose-lose situation for the Iranian leadership: either it reverts to burning highly polluting substances and risks public protest, or it suffers more frequent power shortfalls and risks public unrest and industrial shortfalls. The danger of either scenario for those outside Iran is similar: When Iran faces domestic unrest, it often lashes out militarily to distract its own public around the nationalist flag.

Sources:

 “اطلاعیه شماره ۱ شرکت توانیر درباره برنامه قطع برق”(Announcement No. 1 of Tavanir Company about the power cut program),” Donya-e-Eqtesad.com (nominally independent center-right financial newspaper), 9 November 2024. https://donya-e-eqtesad.com/بخش-سایت-خوان-62/4121436-فوری-اطلاعیه-شماره-شرکت-توانیر-درباره-برنامه-قطع-برق  

“We would like to inform our dear compatriots that due to the onset of the cold season and the increase in gas consumption in the domestic sector and the restriction of the supply of gas fuel to power plants, and in accordance with the decisions taken not to consume mazut in some power plants, there will be electricity cuts in the domestic and commercial sectors. Respected subscribers can be informed about the time schedule for imposing electricity restrictions from the relevant electricity distribution companies on the My Electricity System website.”

Notes:

[i] For previous discussion of Iranian blackouts, see: Michael Rubin, “Blackouts in Bushehr Province Risk Unrest,” OE Watch, August 2021. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-past-issues/387127/download/

[ii] For previous discussion of Iranian air pollution, see: Michael Rubin, “Iran’s Pollution Problems Peak,” OE Watch, September 2021. https://community.apan.org/cfs-file/__key/telligent-evolution-components-attachments/13-21393-00-00-00-39-51-99/2021_2D00_09_2D00_01-Iran_1920_s-Pollution-Problems-Peak-_2800_Rubin_2900_.pdf?forcedownload=true&_=465e6ac6175646f29c3498916f3fcd2f

[iii] For discussion of Iran’s arrests of environmental activists, see: Michael Rubin, “Iranian Environmentalists Arrested as Spies,” OE Watch, April 2018. https://community.apan.org/cfs-file/__key/telligent-evolution-components-attachments/13-17883-00-00-00-28-50-74/2018_2D00_04_2D00_01-Iranian-Environmentalists-Arrested-as-Spies-_2800_Rubin_2900_.pdf?forcedownload=true&_=401ef985fd9b4fb89199f41137332cb3

Image Information:

Image: The Tehran headquarters of Tavanir, a subsidiary electricity company of Iran’s Ministry of Electricity.
Source: https://static.neshanmap.ir/places/images/dca/1043877_3901745–شرکت-توانیر.jpeg
Attribution: Nashan.ir

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks to the Assembly of Experts in Tehran, 7 November 2024.

“There will be no pause or interruption in the system….”

On 7 November 2024, Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 years old,[i] appeared before the 88-member Assembly of Experts, a clerical body charged with selecting the new supreme leader, to discuss—obliquely but still more directly than ever before—his own succession. Published on his official website, Khamenei.ir,Khamenei’s speech discussed the possibility of his own “absence” and the need for a rapid transition. While his comments were oblique, they nevertheless represented the bluntest discussion of an increasingly sensitive subject. To hint at his own mortality and the looming succession risks not only transforming Khamenei himself into a lame duck but can also be destabilizing as regime officials begin to maneuver for the post-Khamenei scramble.

Whenever it occurs, the leadership transition in Iran will have an important impact on the operational environment, because, constitutionally, the supreme leader is also the commander-in-chief with authority to hire and fire military commanders in both the Revolutionary Guard and the regular Iranian Army. The speed of succession could also affect both domestic and regional stability. Quick acceptance of a new leader lessens the chance of domestic unrest. However, there is the risk a new leader may resort to military action, terrorism, or through proxies, to establish his revolutionary bona fides. One major question is whether Khamenei’s successor will launch a cultural revolution to try to tamp down dissent in a way that could lead to a public backlash and exacerbate unrest.

Beyond nods to his succession, Khamenei’s speech included other notable takeaways. While Khamenei has previously voiced concern about declining revolutionary fervor among Iranian youth, the speech was also the first time that Khamenei raised the possibility that the gains that resulted from the 1979 Islamic Revolution could be reversible.[ii] Khamenei also criticized former Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin for allowing the Soviet experiment to descend into dictatorship at the expense of “communist democracy,” but does not appear self-aware that many within Iranian society see him as a dictator and that Iran as a regime has betrayed its promised values: chants of “death to the dictator” during last year’s “Woman, Life, Freedom” are one example of this public sentiment.

Sources:

“بیانات در دیدار اعضای مجلس خبرگان رهبری”(Statements in the Meeting of the Assembly of Experts),” Khamenei.ir (official website of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei), 7 November 2024. https://tinyurl.com/48rfb7rj

Within the structure and general framework of the Islamic system, the primary role of the Leader is to ensure that the system’s orientation is directed toward the goals of the Revolution. This is the main responsibility of the Leader. The Revolution took place for a purpose. Of course, all revolutions have goals. They have fundamental goals that lead them to reshape and transform the order of life… [Those opposed to revolution] were able to prevent [previous] revolutions from achieving their goals and reverse their course. For instance, in the great French Revolution, which was one of the most significant revolutions in our contemporary history, barely 15 years had passed since the start of that revolution when the previous authoritarian monarchy and dictatorship were reestablished. All the efforts of the people, the endeavors of renowned French intellectuals, the efforts and struggles of the masses, the casualties, the massacres, the conflicts — all of these were essentially nullified and destroyed in less than 15 years!

A similar but worse case was what happened to the Soviet Revolution, which was also another major revolution. There too within less than a decade, the claims, the rhetoric, the professed justice and so-called “communist democracy” all vanished. A dictator, a ruthless tyrant like Stalin, seized power and that was the end of it. So this is a risk that all revolutions face.

The Quran repeatedly emphasizes and warns about this matter, not just once or twice, but perhaps tens of times. The holy verses of the Quran repeatedly speak about regression and returning to the previous state from which people had been liberated and saved. This warning is directed toward both the believers and the unbelievers.

An element is necessary to prevent this [regression]. In the Islamic system, this element is the position of the Leader. Such a deviation must be prevented by a leader. This is very important. It is very important…! The establishment and creation of the Assembly of Experts signifies the uninterrupted progress of the Islamic system. This means that there will be no pause or interruption in the system. The Assembly of Experts exists to be able to designate a successor. Therefore, this succession will continue with full strength, power, and ability. This readiness and presence of the Assembly of Experts has such a meaning. If the current Leader were to be absent, the Assembly of Experts would immediately take action to select a successor. It is like this.

Notes:

[i] Ali Khamenei’s health struggles are not entirely secret: a 1981 assassination attempt left him partially paralyzed, and the regime photographed him in the hospital five years ago as he received treatment for prostate cancer.

[ii] For discussion of Khamenei’s concern about declining revolutionary fervor, see: Michael Rubin, “Iran’s Supreme Leader Warns of Declining Fervor of New Generation,” OE Watch, 08 2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/irans-supreme-leader-warns-of-declining-fervor-of-new-generation/ . See also: Michael Rubin, “Iran’s Supreme Leader Speaks on Martyrdom” OE Watch, December 2021. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-past-issues/399678/download and Michael Rubin, “Khamenei Warns Veterans of Declining Revolutionary Fervor” OE Watch, February 2020. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-past-issues/310925/download

Image Information:

Image: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks to the Assembly of Experts in Tehran, 7 November 2024.
Source: https://idc0-cdn0.khamenei.ir/ndata/news/58257/C/14030817_0758257.jpg
Attribution: Khamenei.ir

“In this session, various aspects and details of the recent terrorist operation in Lebanon and the explosion of the pagers were thoroughly examined.”

Iran is concerned about Israel infiltrating its own electronic devices after twin communications attacks in mid-September targeting Hezbollah members in Lebanon killed at least 39 and injured 3,000 people.[i] As per the excerpted article from the semi-official Iranian Mehr News Agency, the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission held an emergency meeting during a 23 September session in parliament to discuss “various aspects and details of the recent terrorist operation in Lebanon, and the explosion of the pagers was thoroughly examined.” According to committee spokesperson Ebrahim Rezaei, part of the session focused on measures to prevent similar incidents in the country, which were widely attributed to Israeli intelligence agency Mossad.[ii] Rezaei noted that the booby-trapped pagers were “the result of industrial contamination,” in other words, that the devices had explosive substances inserted.[iii] According to Rezaei, Iran is “moving toward the localization of telecommunications equipment” and that it is “already capable of exporting some of this equipment,” likely a reference to providing Hezbollah with these domestically made devices.

Israel’s mid-September communications attacks in Lebanon have shaken the Iranian clerical establishment enough to prompt them to conduct investigations and make ensure their electronic devices are not also compromised. With Iran and Israel out of the shadow war since Tehran’s first direct attack against Israel in April, Iran—which has become the Mossad’s playground for operations—is taking further precautionary measures to make sure they are not compromised yet again.

Sources:

“ماجرای پیجرها هیچ ارتباطی با موضوع شهادت «شهید رئیسی» ندارد (Pagers incident has no connection to the martyrdom of ‘martyr [Ebrahim]  Raisi’),” Mehr News Agency (semi-official news agency), 23 September 2024. mehrnews.com/x35Znz

According to the correspondent of Mehr [News Agency], Ebrahim Rezaei, in explaining the extraordinary session held this morning (Monday, September 23) by the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the parliament… He continued: “In this session, various aspects and details of the recent terrorist operation in Lebanon and the explosion of the pagers were thoroughly examined.”

The communications minister provided explanations on this matter as well as on measures to prevent similar incidents in the country and said the recent operation in Lebanon was the result of industrial contamination and was a combined operation. He also stated that these pagers were primarily used in the healthcare sector.

The spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of parliament emphasized: “The Communications Minister stated that we are moving toward the localization of telecommunications equipment. This issue has been and continues to be on our agenda to support domestic production by localizing telecommunications equipment, and we are committed to supporting this effort. In fact, we are already capable of exporting some of this equipment.”

Rezaei added: “Regarding imported telecommunications items, the Minister of Information and Communications Technology said that we have sample verification laboratories aligned with our missions, and he stressed that the registry system must be strengthened…”

The spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of parliament added that during this session, the director general for West Asia and North Africa at the Foreign Ministry presented a report on the situation of the region. He emphasized that the recent terrorist operation in Lebanon will not affect Hezbollah’s and the Resistance [Axis]’s support for Gaza. Although the goal of the Zionist regime in carrying out this operation was to deter Hezbollah from supporting Palestine and Gaza, they will not achieve their objectives.

Rezaei, referring to the views expressed by the members of the National Security Commission during the session, said: “The members expressed concern that a similar action might take place in Iran and stressed the importance of preventing and taking precautionary measures to ensure that such incidents are not repeated…”

The importance of electronic warfare and preparedness to counter the enemy’s electronic warfare was also emphasized. Additionally, strengthening the Passive Defense Organization was stressed. Moreover, during this session, it was clarified that the pagers incident had no connection to the issue of the martyrdom of martyr [President Ebrahim] Raisi and his companions.

Rezaei emphasized: “The members of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the parliament unanimously stressed the need for readiness to confront the enemy’s conspiracies, including in the field of cyber and electronic terrorism, and to counter the inhumane actions of the Zionist regime.”

Notes:

[i] On 17 and 18 September, beepers and walkie-talkies belonging to members of the militant group Hezbollah exploded simultaneously. Among those injured in the pager attacks on 17 September was the Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, who reportedly lost one eye with the other severely injured. Iranian officials and his family said the ambassador was in “good and stable condition.” See: Holly Dagres, “Iranian ambassador blinded in one eye,” The Iranist, 27 September 2024. https://www.theiranist.com/i/149068347/iranian-ambassador-blinded-in-one-eye

[ii] At the time, there were rumors that members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had been killed in the twin attacks, but per state broadcaster IRIB, IRGC spokesman Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini was quick to dispel media reports and online accounts as false. See: “هیچ نیروی سپاه در ماجرای پیجر‌ها شهید نشده است (No IRGC forces were martyred in the pagers incident),” Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (state broadcaster), 18 September 2024. https://www.iribnews.ir/00IBdr

[iii] David Gritten, “Death toll from Hezbollah pager explosions in Lebanon rises to 12,” BBC News, 18 September 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2kn10xxldo.