Category Archives: OE Watch

Iran’s Supreme Leader Hints at His Own Succession

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Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks to the Assembly of Experts in Tehran, 7 November 2024.

“There will be no pause or interruption in the system….”

On 7 November 2024, Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 years old,[i] appeared before the 88-member Assembly of Experts, a clerical body charged with selecting the new supreme leader, to discuss—obliquely but still more directly than ever before—his own succession. Published on his official website, Khamenei.ir,Khamenei’s speech discussed the possibility of his own “absence” and the need for a rapid transition. While his comments were oblique, they nevertheless represented the bluntest discussion of an increasingly sensitive subject. To hint at his own mortality and the looming succession risks not only transforming Khamenei himself into a lame duck but can also be destabilizing as regime officials begin to maneuver for the post-Khamenei scramble.

Whenever it occurs, the leadership transition in Iran will have an important impact on the operational environment, because, constitutionally, the supreme leader is also the commander-in-chief with authority to hire and fire military commanders in both the Revolutionary Guard and the regular Iranian Army. The speed of succession could also affect both domestic and regional stability. Quick acceptance of a new leader lessens the chance of domestic unrest. However, there is the risk a new leader may resort to military action, terrorism, or through proxies, to establish his revolutionary bona fides. One major question is whether Khamenei’s successor will launch a cultural revolution to try to tamp down dissent in a way that could lead to a public backlash and exacerbate unrest.

Beyond nods to his succession, Khamenei’s speech included other notable takeaways. While Khamenei has previously voiced concern about declining revolutionary fervor among Iranian youth, the speech was also the first time that Khamenei raised the possibility that the gains that resulted from the 1979 Islamic Revolution could be reversible.[ii] Khamenei also criticized former Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin for allowing the Soviet experiment to descend into dictatorship at the expense of “communist democracy,” but does not appear self-aware that many within Iranian society see him as a dictator and that Iran as a regime has betrayed its promised values: chants of “death to the dictator” during last year’s “Woman, Life, Freedom” are one example of this public sentiment.

Sources:

“بیانات در دیدار اعضای مجلس خبرگان رهبری”(Statements in the Meeting of the Assembly of Experts),” Khamenei.ir (official website of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei), 7 November 2024. https://tinyurl.com/48rfb7rj

Within the structure and general framework of the Islamic system, the primary role of the Leader is to ensure that the system’s orientation is directed toward the goals of the Revolution. This is the main responsibility of the Leader. The Revolution took place for a purpose. Of course, all revolutions have goals. They have fundamental goals that lead them to reshape and transform the order of life… [Those opposed to revolution] were able to prevent [previous] revolutions from achieving their goals and reverse their course. For instance, in the great French Revolution, which was one of the most significant revolutions in our contemporary history, barely 15 years had passed since the start of that revolution when the previous authoritarian monarchy and dictatorship were reestablished. All the efforts of the people, the endeavors of renowned French intellectuals, the efforts and struggles of the masses, the casualties, the massacres, the conflicts — all of these were essentially nullified and destroyed in less than 15 years!

A similar but worse case was what happened to the Soviet Revolution, which was also another major revolution. There too within less than a decade, the claims, the rhetoric, the professed justice and so-called “communist democracy” all vanished. A dictator, a ruthless tyrant like Stalin, seized power and that was the end of it. So this is a risk that all revolutions face.

The Quran repeatedly emphasizes and warns about this matter, not just once or twice, but perhaps tens of times. The holy verses of the Quran repeatedly speak about regression and returning to the previous state from which people had been liberated and saved. This warning is directed toward both the believers and the unbelievers.

An element is necessary to prevent this [regression]. In the Islamic system, this element is the position of the Leader. Such a deviation must be prevented by a leader. This is very important. It is very important…! The establishment and creation of the Assembly of Experts signifies the uninterrupted progress of the Islamic system. This means that there will be no pause or interruption in the system. The Assembly of Experts exists to be able to designate a successor. Therefore, this succession will continue with full strength, power, and ability. This readiness and presence of the Assembly of Experts has such a meaning. If the current Leader were to be absent, the Assembly of Experts would immediately take action to select a successor. It is like this.

Notes:

[i] Ali Khamenei’s health struggles are not entirely secret: a 1981 assassination attempt left him partially paralyzed, and the regime photographed him in the hospital five years ago as he received treatment for prostate cancer.

[ii] For discussion of Khamenei’s concern about declining revolutionary fervor, see: Michael Rubin, “Iran’s Supreme Leader Warns of Declining Fervor of New Generation,” OE Watch, 08 2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/irans-supreme-leader-warns-of-declining-fervor-of-new-generation/ . See also: Michael Rubin, “Iran’s Supreme Leader Speaks on Martyrdom” OE Watch, December 2021. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-past-issues/399678/download and Michael Rubin, “Khamenei Warns Veterans of Declining Revolutionary Fervor” OE Watch, February 2020. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-past-issues/310925/download

Image Information:

Image: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks to the Assembly of Experts in Tehran, 7 November 2024.
Source: https://idc0-cdn0.khamenei.ir/ndata/news/58257/C/14030817_0758257.jpg
Attribution: Khamenei.ir

Russian Volunteer Force Highlights the Evolution of UAV Missions in Ukraine

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Ukrainian Soldiers handling a Baba Yaga UAV.

“Now everything that concerns combat UAVs is developing rapidly, if you stop, you fall behind.”

The accompanying excerpted article from the Russian daily newspaper Izvestia discusses the activities of the Volunteer Corps of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s Española Brigade. The Española Brigade—currently numbering no more than 100 individuals, according to the founder—began as a volunteer formation of soccer enthusiasts, which now provides trained UAV operators and UAVs to support Russia’s conventional force in the special military operation in Ukraine.[i] According to the Izvestia article, the Española Brigade operates its own UAV training center and is developing its own UAVs for use in Ukraine. Although state UAV development programs are entrenched in both Russia and Ukraine, the development of UAV technologies by volunteer units and their personnel in the field also appears to be increasingly common on both sides of the front. It would now seem that the traditional model of governments procuring defense articles from private industry and then supplying these materials to the military is simply no longer effective given UAVs’ rapidly evolving technology and newfound tactical uses. Indeed, both the Russian and Ukrainian militaries are now collaborating closely with industry to quickly deliver new capabilities to the battlefield as the requirements are recognized.

The article also mentions the importance of the Baba Yaga class of large UAVs. The primary mission of the Baba Yaga-class of UAVs is not reconnaissance or bomb dropping, but logistics support. This development illustrates the expanding role of UAVs on the modern battlefield—UAVs are no longer being used just as a means of reconnaissance (intelligence) and/or fires. UAVs are now becoming key capabilities to enable success for other war-fighting functions.

Overall, although volunteer formations like Russia’s Española Brigade are relatively small, they help fill critical shortages of UAV expertise that the conventional force would be hard-pressed to stand up on its own.[ii]

Sources:

Dmitry Korneev, “«Птичья» школа: как в бригаде «Эспаньола» готовят операторов дронов

БПЛА (“Bird” school: how the “Espanola” brigade trains drone operators),” Izvestiya (major Russian daily newspaper), 7 November 2024.  https://iz.ru/1786422/dmitrii-korneev/ptica-skola-kak-v-brigade-espanola-gotovat-operatorov-dronov

The volunteer “Española Brigade”, the backbone of which is football fans, has a unique UAV combat training center…the commander and founder of the UAV Combat Training Center is respectfully called Petrovich…“With the start of the special operation, the idea came to organize a UAV combat training center. But it didn’t work out right away. It only opened in May 2023.  He notes that a wide variety of people came to the center.  “We invited those who had experience working with UAVs, even if it was minimal,” he recalls…They started training and preparing people on “commercial” UAVs. Gradually training switched to FPV [first-person-view] UAVs. The trainees first master the theory, and then go to the training grounds. The final stage of the program involves training on a relatively calm section of the front…There, people receive their first combat experience.  The center itself is relatively small. Its resources are designed mainly for the Española Brigade, Petrovich emphasizes…“We have been operating for only a year and a half. However, during this time, we have trained more than 100 qualified UAV operators in various areas” says Petrovich…

“Española”, like many other volunteer units, received special weapons manufactured by the so-called people’s defense industry, that is, developed and released outside the framework of the defense order…Now everything that concerns combat UAVs is developing rapidly, if you stop, you fall behind…, – Petrovich points out, moving on to the scientific and practical activities of the center’s employees.  At Española, they work with the entire spectrum of UAVs…In cooperation with a young design bureau, we are currently developing and conducting experimental tests on two types of d UAVs: a night reconnaissance UAV and a high-speed Baba Yaga UAV.  Due to the abundance of FPV [first-person-view] UAVs, the enemy has problems supplying units on the front line.  “Five, seven, ten kilometers is a dead zone”, he explains.  The fact is that people who sit directly at the front, paradoxically, are sometimes safer than those who are trying to resupply them from the rear. And so the first request for such a Baba Yaga [class UAV] came from such rear detachments.

Petrovich says that the troops needed a fast “bird” that could carry a good load and do it quickly.  The primary mission is supplying provisions, ammunition, and medicine.  The secondary mission is to carry powerful munitions.  A load capacity of, for example, 10 kg allows you to transport an anti-tank mine. Moreover, ammunition can be varied. Now there is a whole line [of UAV munitions]. We call this project “Kikimora”. The active testing phase is underway…The center is also working on countering enemy electronic warfare…The second UAV currently being developed at the center is a night reconnaissance UAV. “It can stay in the air for up to an hour and a half…in terms of range, it’s at least 12 km, we want to increase it to 15-17 km”

Notes:

[i] Moscow uses the term spetsial’naya voyennaya operatsiya (“special military operation”) or spetsoperatsiya (“special operation”) to describe its campaign in Ukraine.

[ii] Additional Russian volunteer units have filled critical positions in Russia’s war in Ukraine, especially in the field of UAVs. See Charles Bartles, “Russia Gains Combat Power From Volunteer Service,” OE Watch, 07-2024, https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/russia-gains-combat-power-from-volunteer-service/

Image Information:

Image: Ukrainian Soldiers handling a Baba Yaga UAV
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baba_Yaga_(aircraft)#/media/File:UA_Vampire_UCAV_01.jpg 
Attribution: АрміяІнформCC BY-SA 4.0

Russia Expands Its Arctic Research Capabilities

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Russian President Vladimir Putin at Admiralty Shipyards to inspect the Petropavlovsk Kamchatsky submarine, the Ivan Papanin icebreaker patrol ship, and the Viktor Chernomyrdin icebreaker in 2019. Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg is the sight of construction of the newly announced Ivan Frolov Arctic capable research vessel.

“Prime Minister of Russia Dmitry Patrushev underlined that the new vessel is aimed at strengthening Russia’s positions in the polar regions.”

In October, Russia announced the construction of its latest Arctic-capable research vessel, the Ivan Frolov. According to the first excerpted article from the Norway-based The Barents Observer, the Ivan Frolov, set for completion in 2028, will be the largest Arctic research vessel of its kind in the world and “the new flagship of Russia polar science.”[i] Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev noted the Ivan Frolov will collect data “for the development of navigation on the Northern Sea Route and to clarify the boundaries of the continental shelf of Russia.”

According to the second excerpted article from The Barents Observer, Russia’s research platform, the Severny Polyus, commissioned in 2022, recently began its second polar expedition.[ii] The expedition, “North Pole-42,” is expected to continue until 2026. This article also notes that while the Severny Polyus is a scientific research vessel,[iii] it could also serve Russian military purposes, as Russia’s new marine doctrine “includes a high stress on the use of civilian ships and infrastructure for military purposes.” This doctrinal emphasis not only affects the Severny Polus and the forthcoming Ivan Frolov but also all other nations with Arctic exposure.

Together, these developments underscore Russia’s continued focus on the Arctic region at a time when all nations with an Arctic foothold are also dedicating resources to the area.

Sources:

Elizaveta Vereykina, “Construction begins on a “new flagship of Russian polar research,”The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 30 October 2024. https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/news/construction-begins-on-a-new-flagship-of-russian-polar-research/419705

On 29 October, the Russian Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute reported on an official ceremony held at the Admiralty shipyards in St Petersburg to start the construction of a new scientific vessel named the Ivan Frolov.   The vessel – with a length of 165 meters and displacement about 25,000 tons – is planned to be able to accommodate up to 240 people. In addition to the announced 20 scientific laboratories on board, it will also have a helicopter platform.

“In 2028, the vessel will join the fleet of the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute and become the new flagship of Russian polar science,” the news report says. At the ceremony, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Dmitry Patrushev underlined, that the new vessel is aimed at strengthening Russia’s positions in the polar regions:

“The vessel will have powerful scientific equipment that will allow conducting research even in the harshest conditions, including research on the ocean floor, in the atmosphere and space,” – “The study of the Arctic and Antarctic is one of the key areas of activity of the Russian Environmental Monitoring Service. More than 20 expeditions are already carried out annually.  They allow tracking climate change, collecting data for the development of navigation of the Northern Sea Route and clarifying the boundaries of the continental shelf of Russia”.

The Governor of St Petersburg, Alexander Beglov, called the new ship “the largest scientific research vessel in the world”. The two well-known large scientific -the RV Kronprins Haakon (Norway) or RRS Sir David Attenborough (UK), are smaller than the new Russian vessel. The technology used in the construction has previously been tested at the floating Arctic research station “North Pole” [“Severny Polyus”], according to the head of the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute Alexander Makarov.

Atle Staalesen, “With the North Pole platform, Russia has returned to the Arctic for good,” The Baltic Observer,(independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 17 September 2024. https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/arctic/with-the-north-pole-platform-russia-has-returned-to-the-arctic-for-good/142846

Russia’s North Pole (Severny Polyus) research platform has started its second comprehensive Arctic expedition.  The 83-meter-long vessel this week set out from Murmansk with course for the high Arctic.  It will sail into the polar sea-ice north of the New Siberian Islands and drift with the currents for the next two years.  Experts at the Russian Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute are now scanning satellite images for the most suitable icefloe for the drift. The search will continue as the vessel approaches the area.

“With the expeditions of the ice-protected self-propelled platform Severny Polyus Russia has returned to the Arctic for good,” says Aleksandr Kozlov, the Russian Minister of Natural Resources.  According to the minister, who is also known for his key role in Russia’s cooperation with North Korea, the researchers will gather materials of great importance for the protection of Arctic ecology, understanding of climate change, as well as safe sailing on the Northern Sea Route.  The expedition is named “the North Pole-42” and is expected to continue until 2026.

The Severny Polyus has the shape of a bathtub and is often referred to as a platform. It has a ship crew of 16 and a research team of up to 34 people. Ship operator is Roshydromet, the Russian state meteorological service.  The Severny Polyus is capable of geological, acoustic, geophysical and marine research under the harshest Arctic conditions.  In temperatures down to minus 50°C it is reportedly able to provide comfortable living and working conditions for researchers and crew.

On board are 15 labs where researchers can work year-round.  The research platform has replaced Russia’s Arctic expeditions based on ice floes organized since the 1930s. The quickly vanishing Arctic sea-ice has made it increasingly hard to organize the expeditions and last real ice station, the “North Pole-40”, was held in the winter of 2012.  Albeit built for research purposes, the vessel could ultimately also be applied by the Russian military. The country’s new Marine Doctrine includes a high stress on use of civilian ships and infrastructure for military purposes. That could include not only trawlers and icebreakers, but also the Severniy Polus.

Notes:

[i] The Soviet Union and its successor state, Russia, have conducted a sustained Arctic maritime research effort since the 1930s and a sustained Antarctic research effort since 1955. The Arctic and Antarctic Scientific Research Institute (Арктический и антарктический научно-исследовательский институт) was founded in 1920 and still heads the country’s polar exploration with close to a thousand land and sea expeditions to its credit.

[ii] For additional reporting on the Severny Polyus, see: Les Grau, “Russian Drift Station Vital To Arctic Research Effort,” OE Watch, 07-2024. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/russian-drift-station-vital-to-arctic-research-effort/

[iii] For additional reporting on Russian research efforts in the Arctic, see: Les Grau, “China and Russia Expand Agreement For Arctic Strategic Resource Development,” OE Watch, 08-2024. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/china-and-russia-expand-agreement-for-arctic-strategic-resource-development/

Image Information:

Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin at Admiralty Shipyards to inspect the Petropavlovsk Kamchatsky submarine, the Ivan Papanin icebreaker patrol ship, and the Viktor Chernomyrdin icebreaker in 2019. Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg is the sight of construction of the newly announced Ivan Frolov Arctic capable research vessel.
Source: Office of the Russian President, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62143
Attribution: Public Domain

Russia Offers Financial Incentives To Meet Troop Recruiting Targets

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Russian soldiers fast-rope from helicopter during Centre 2019 strategic command-and-staff exercises.

“Russians are actively signing contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry for service in the special operation zone.”

In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for the “mobilization” of an additional 180,000 new service members. However, the meaning of “mobilization” appears to be a question of semantics: Russian media has reported that there is no talk in Moscow of a partial mobilization similar to the one conducted in the autumn of 2022, which led to tens of thousands of Russians fleeing the country. According to the first excerpted article from the pro-Kremlin Russian news source Izvestia, the press secretary for the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, stated in November that “there is no talk of mobilization,” instead claiming that Russians are actively signing contracts for service in Ukraine.

Russia is mobilizing troops, not by traditional forced means, but financial inducements are now a key component of Russia’s recruitment tactics. According to the second excerpted article from the Russian news agency Interfax, a new debt law is the most recent incentive passed to encourage participation in the military. The new law allows up to 10 million rubles ($96,000) of outstanding debt facing collection, previously incurred by a recruit and/or his or her spouse, to be written off if a recruit joins the force.[i] Further, according to the third excerpted article from the Russian news tabloid Ragnum News Agency, on 25 November, Russia extended a one-time 400,000 ruble ($3,800) payment to those who sign a contract with the Russian Guard (Rosgvardiya) “for participation in the special military operation” in Ukraine.

The combination of financial incentives, which amounts to a windfall for many Russians, dead or alive, may well help the Russian armed forces continue to meet its recruiting goals, extending the war in Ukraine.[ii]

Sources:

“Песков сообщил об отсутствии планов по проведению мобилизации в России (Peskov reported no plans to conduct mobilization in Russia),” Izvestia (pro-Kremlin Russian news source), 23 November 2024. https://iz.ru/1795673/2024-11-23/peskov-soobshchil-ob-otsutstvii-planov-po-provedeniiu-mobilizatcii-v-rossii

Russia is not planning to conduct mobilization. This was announced on November 23 by the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov.

The official representative of the Kremlin added that at present, Russians are actively signing contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry for service in the special operation zone.

“There are a lot of these people — hundreds of people sign contracts every day and go to a special military operation,” Peskov noted.

Assembly point: Putin announced the completion of mobilization within two weeks

At the same time, the president emphasized that the conscription process needs to be improved.

Earlier, on October 27, when the agency asked whether there were enough volunteers and whether mobilization might be required, Peskov also answered that there was no talk of mobilization in Russia.

Before that, in May, Peskov stated that there was no need for mobilization in Russia, commenting on an article in the Financial Times (FT) that the country was actively recruiting volunteer contract soldiers.

“Правительство доработало программу списания кредитов военнослужащих (The government has finalized the program for writing off military personnel’s loans),” Interfax (Russian news agency), 15 November 2024. https://www.interfax.ru/russia/992965

The government proposes to write off overdue loans of up to 10 million rubles for which judicial collection has already begun for mobilized personnel, conscripts (except for cadets) and military contract soldiers during military service to perform the tasks of the Air Defense Forces, from December 1, 2024, follows from the amendments submitted to the State Duma.

We are talking about writing off obligations under loan agreements that were concluded before December 1, 2024 and for which a court order on debt collection has already entered into legal force or enforcement proceedings have been initiated. Up to 10 million rubles can be written off for a certain category of citizens – these are conscripts for military service upon mobilization; conscripted military personnel (except for cadets of military schools or universities); other citizens who are not undergoing military service, but who concluded a contract for military service for a period of one year or more to perform the tasks of a special military operation no earlier than December 1, 2024. The write-off also applies to spouses of this category of citizens.

“The obligations of a citizen called up for military service upon mobilization into the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, a serviceman who has served in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation by conscription (except for a serviceman holding a military position as a cadet in a military professional educational organization, a military educational organization of higher education under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation), another citizen who is not serving in the military, who concluded no earlier than December 1, 2024, a contract for military service in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation for a period of one year or more to perform the tasks of a special military operation, and (or) his (her) spouse, arising from a loan agreement, if before December 1, 2024 a judicial act on the collection of debt on these obligations entered into legal force and (or) in order to fulfill such obligations, a writ of execution was issued to a bank or other credit organization and (or) enforcement proceedings were initiated based on the applications of the said organizations (the writ of execution was presented for execution), shall be terminated in parts, not exceeding in total 10 million rubles, from the date of conclusion of the said contract,” the text of the amendment says.

“Путин распространил на Росгвардию разовую выплату в 400 тыс. Рублей (Putin Extends One-Time Payment of 400,000 Rubles to the Russian Guard),” Regnum News Agency (Russian tabloid), 25 November 2024. https://regnum.ru/news/3931489?utm_source=iz&utm_campaign=vidjet&utm_medium=8&utm_content=3931489

The Russian Guard has been extended a one-time payment of ₽400,000 upon signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense.

Russian President Vladimir Putin extended the provision on a one-time payment of 400,000 rubles to the Russian Guard upon signing a contract for participation in a special military operation. The corresponding decree was published on November 25.

“This decree shall enter into force on the date of its signing and shall apply to legal relations that arose from August 1, 2024,” the document says.

Putin introduced a payment of 400 thousand rubles for participants in the special operation who signed a contract with the Ministry of Defense for a period of one year or more in August. Foreign citizens who decided to go to the combat zone also received the right to it.

The press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov explained that the payment is aimed at supporting the fighters of the special operation. He emphasized that this does not mean a change in the goals of the SVO.

Notes:

[i] In April 2024, the Russian government clarified its position vis-a-vie Russian banks regarding debt and interest reduction for those serving in Ukraine. As per when the article was written, the price tag for the debt forgiveness would be in the neighborhood of 11 billion rubles, half of which will be paid by the banks. The other half would be paid for by the government, adding an additional 5-6 billion rubles to defense expenditures. See: “Принят закон о компенсации банкам 50% потерь от списания процентов по кредитам военных (A law has been adopted to compensate banks for 50% of losses from writing off interest on military loans),” Interfax (Russian news agency), 2 April 2024. https://www.interfax.ru/russia/953642

[ii] For reporting on the positive economic impact of financial payment to family members of deceased service members, see: Georgi Kantchev and Matthew Luxmoore, “The ‘Deathonomics’ Powering Russia’s War Machine,” The Wall Street Journal, 13 November 2024. https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-ukraine-war-military-death-pay-6cfe936e?mod=world_lead_pos3

Image Information:

Image: Russian soldiers fast-rope from helicopter during Centre 2019 strategic command-and-staff exercises.
Source: Russian Office of the President, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61584
Attribution: Public Domain

Russia and Belarus To Strengthen Security Guarantees

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The Polish-Belarusian border, photo taken on 11 November 2021.

“This is also a very important strategic document. Work on these two documents has been completed, and we plan, together with the Secretariat of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, to submit [them] for approval by the heads of our states at the Supreme State Council.”

Russia and Belarus have nearly finalized a “Treaty on Security Guarantees of the Union State,” according to an interview with Secretary of the Security Council of the Republic Alexander Wolfovich in Izvestia, a pro-Kremlin Russian newspaper. The document, which will be sent for ratification by the Supreme State Council in December, will replace the 1999 union concept. Belarus will receive substantial security guarantees, including the use of nuclear and conventional weapons, “due to external threats.”

The intention of the original treaty was to achieve a federation not unlike the Soviet Union, whereby Belarus and Russia would share a head of state, legislature, flag, currency, coat of arms, anthem, and other insignia of a unified state.[i] The full extent of the Union State never came to fruition, largely because both leaders of the federation, Presidents Boris Yeltsin (Russia) and Alexander Lukashenko (Belarus), quickly lost interest in the provisions of the treaty because both feared it would weaken their own power. Belarus suspended the customs union a few years later, and they never developed a common currency. 

The revised treaty comes amid heightened tensions along Belarus’ borders with Ukraine and Poland, due to a migrant crisis (involving asylum-seekers from the wider Middle East),[ii] nuclear drills conducted on Belarusian territory summer 2024,[iii] and rumors that Belarusian soldiers may be sent to fight in Ukraine.[iv] The security guarantees of the new document suggest that an attack against Belarus, conventional or otherwise, would be considered an attack against Russia.

Interestingly, the original intention of signing the 1999 treaty was economic, not security related. Back then, commercial and economic interests trumped security concerns.[v] Going back to the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia has been Belarus’ largest economic and political partner. Vladimir Putin has sought greater integration of the two countries’ economies. As reported by Izvestia, trade between the two neighbors in the first half of 2024 ($25 billion) was up 6.4 percent from the same time last year, with some 133 investment projects underway in the fields of agriculture, energy, tourism, IT, medicine, and pharmaceuticals, according to Deputy Minister of Economic Development of Russia Dmitry Volvach. The revised treaty should strengthen economic integration and trade between the two neighbors.

More importantly, the revised Union State treaty signals greater security cooperation and guarantees between Minsk and Moscow. Belarus has long acted as a strategic buffer zone between Russia and NATO. Although President Alexander Lukashenko sought greater autonomy after the 2014 annexation of Crimea, a disputed election in 2020 and a popular uprising forced the Belarusian leader to seek greater integration with Russia. The revised Union State treaty will further isolate Belarus from Europe and make it more dependent on Russia for its security, both internal and external. While the long-term consequences of the revised Union State remain uncertain, given that Russia and Belarus have both sought to maintain their post-Soviet era borders and independence, greater military cooperation between Belarus and Russia is expected, including closer economic and potential territorial integration and even Belarus playing a larger role in the war in Ukraine, beyond just hosting Russian nuclear and military assets.

Sources:

Elizaveta Borisenko, “Взаимное действие: Москва и Минск подготовили договор о гарантиях безопасности (Union proposal: Moscow and Minsk strengthen cooperation against Western pressure),” Izvestia (a pro-Kremlin Russian newspaper), 11 November 2024. https://iz.ru/1787861/elizaveta-borisenko/vzaimnoe-deistvie-moskva-i-minsk-podgotovili-dogovor-o-garantiah-bezopasnosti

According to [Wolfovich], the provisions of the document will be published in the near future. The document will include the principle of the use of nuclear and conventional weapons, as well as other methods of protecting the Union State. “What our president recently said, what Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin recently said that, God forbid, there will be some aggressions towards the Republic of Belarus, is all true. If today it has the character of protecting the joint and protection of Belarus through the deployment of nuclear weapons on our territory, de facto in December, by the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty on the establishment of the Union State, this treaty will already be legally signed,” Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov said earlier.

Russia previously decided to amend the nuclear doctrine, which was last updated in 2020. In particular, we are talking about the expansion of scenarios in which the Russian authorities reserve the right to use nuclear weapons. In the updated version of the document, aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of nuclear, is proposed to be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation. In addition, there are provisions that concern Belarus.

“We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression against Russia and Belarus as a member of the Union State. All these issues have been agreed with the Belarusian side and the President of Belarus. Including if the enemy, using conventional weapons, creates a critical threat to our sovereignty,” Vladimir Putin said on September 25.

As for the new concept of the security of the Union State, which will replace the document adopted back in 1999, it will enshrine a provision on joint counteraction to the policies of the United States, unfriendly NATO states and the European Union to achieve strategic goals for mutually beneficial and equal international cooperation. Such strengthening of cooperation in the field of security is primarily related to the foreign policy situation, Dmitry Zhuravlev, scientific director of the Institute of Regional Problems, associate professor of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, tells Izvestia.

Notes:

[i] “The Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation signed the Union State Treaty on 8 December 1999,” Press Service of the President of the Republic of Belarus, https://president.gov.by/en/belarus/economics/economic-integration/union-state?TSPD_101_R0=08eaf62760ab20008e25be59f2426da6e735002c3eb769d3b553a73ed46fd82fa95c1f4983143a0a086c7a2488143000ed156aeeac2db1eb09822ff7aca3ea7bcda21c0e8cb9ef3c1a0b6b7c0271930783b0b327184c7aa97f0896aae08327fc

[ii] See: “Poland to temporarily suspend asylum rights amid Belarus border tensions,” Al-Jazeera, 12 October 2024. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/12/poland-to-temporarily-suspend-asylum-rights-amid-belarus-border-tensions

[iii] See: “Belarus launches nuclear drills a day after Russia announces them amid tensions with West,” AP News, 7 May 2024. https://apnews.com/article/russia-belarus-nuclear-drills-ukraine-war-144422347bb168878cebc0b78071dd99

[iv] See: Mark Temnycky, “Will Belarus join North Korea in fighting Russia’s war?” The Hill, 17 November 2024. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4993006-ukraine-north-korean-fighting/

[v] For analysis, see Helene Alstad Dyndal, “The Union State of Russia and Belarus at the present stage,” Strategem, 11 April 2024 https://www.stratagem.no/the-union-state-of-russia-and-belarus-at-the-present-stage/

Image Information:

Image: The Polish-Belarusian border, photo taken on 11 November 2021.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/premierrp/51674607554
Attribution: Irek Dorozanski

China’s Expands Its Influence in Africa Through Economic and Security Cooperation

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Chinese trade cooperation with Tanzania dates back to 1965, but now not only includes large-scale infrastructure projects, such as bridges, but also joint military exercises.

“The start of [China’s] joint naval exercise with Mozambique came after the conclusion of joint naval exercises with Tanzania…”

China is supporting African countries in economic and infrastructure development alongside its growing military presence in the continent. Tanzania, where China has been showing increasing interest in both the security and economic realms, is indicative of this trend. In late July China held Peace-Unity 2024, a joint military drill with Tanzania, which involved counter-terrorism exercises. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) newspaper Global Times argued those exercises “reflected China’s power projection capabilities” in Africa.[i] After the exercises in Tanzania, China held similar counterterrorism and counter-piracy exercises in neighboring Mozambique, which has borne the brunt of Islamic State (IS) affiliated militant attacks in East Africa.

Consistent with China’s game plan in Africa to combine security with economic partnerships, on 8 October, the CCP website cctv.com published the excerpted Chinese-language article discussing the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation and China Railway 15th Bureau Group’s finalizing the construction of a bridge in Tanzania after four years of work. The article touts the two-mile long bridge, which connects Kigongo and Busisi on the banks of the Gulf on Mwanza in Tanzania’s north, as the longest low-tower cable-stayed bridge in Africa. Given that the China Railway 15th Bureau Group, like other railway companies,[ii] has historically performed military-related construction missions, this bridge also has military significance for China’s power projection in Africa.

The combination of constructing major infrastructure projects in Tanzania followed by joint military training exercises with the same country and its strife-ridden neighbor reflects China’s modus operandi in Africa. Developing African infrastructure not only opens economic opportunities for Chinese commerce on the continent but also enables China to expand its military influence in Africa. In addition, large-scale Chinese infrastructure projects in Africa can obscure the arguably more significant military influence China is acquiring there, which China does not wish to highlight internationally for fear it could be perceived as threatening.

China will continue to exert influence and enhance its military footprint in African countries by linking its ability to support economic development and infrastructure projects with joint military exercises and potentially other objectives in those countries, such as basing rights. This promotes China’s Belt and Road Initiative and broader global security objectives. If there is a new “great game” in Africa, Tanzania is among the numerous countries on the continent where China is playing aggressively.

Sources:

“China-Tanzania joint military drill kicks off, ‘reflects Chinese continental power projection capabilities,” Global Times (Chinese Communist Party news service focusing on international affairs from a Chinese nationalist and populist perspective). 6 August 2024. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202408/1317509.shtml

On its way to Mozambique from Tanzania, the Qilianshan conducted joint search and rescue as well as counter-terrorism and counter-piracy training in preparation of the joint exercises, the PLA Navy confirmed. The start of the joint naval exercise with Mozambique came after the conclusion of joint naval exercises with Tanzania, also under the banner of the “Peace-Unity 2024” joint exercises.

With a focus on counter-terrorism and counter-piracy in the joint exercises, Zhang Junshe, a Chinese military expert, told the Global Times that the drills are of pragmatic significance in Africa where terrorist and pirate attacks occur frequently

“中企承建非洲最长矮塔斜拉桥顺利合龙 (The longest low-tower cable-stayed bridge in Africa built by a Chinese company was successfully closed),” news.cctv.com (website of national television broadcaster of China, which reports to the Chinese Communist Party), 8 October 2024. https://news.cctv.com/2024/10/08/ARTIEo5gdghwYT812Y5y9lRG241008.shtml

The Magufuli Bridge in Tanzania, jointly constructed by China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation and China Railway 15th Bureau Group, was successfully completed. After more than four years of non-stop construction, the longest low-tower cable-stayed bridge in Africa has been fully connected, and the countdown to the completion and opening of the entire line has begun. The Magufuli Bridge is located on the southern shoreline of Lake Victoria, which is the largest lake in Africa.

There was no underwater casting during the entire pedestal construction process, which minimized the impact of construction on the water quality of the lake and effectively protected the “Mother Lake” of the African people. During the construction process, the construction team strictly implemented quality control standards. After completion, it will become the first bridge project on Lake Victoria, which is of great significance for enhancing Tanzania’s national image and promoting local social and economic development.

Notes:

[i] See Liu Xuanzun and Guo Yuandan, “China-Tanzania joint military drill kicks off, ‘reflects Chinese continental power projection capabilities’”, Global Times (daily English language newspaper under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party’s People’s Daily newspaper), 30 July 2024. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202407/1317046.shtml

[ii] The China Railway 15th Bureau Group was formerly the fifth and sixth divisions of the Chinese Railways Corps, which was considered a “special force” of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) since 1949. https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80-00809A000700070455-8.pdf

Image Information:

Image: Chinese trade cooperation with Tanzania dates back to 1965, but now not only includes large-scale infrastructure projects, such as bridges, but also joint military exercises.
Source: Xinhua, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:China-Tanzania_trade_agreement_signed.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

China Sets Sight on Gabon for Second African Military Base

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Gabon’s Port Gentil is the country’s second largest city and its airport and seaport will likely increasingly host military and business visitors from China as China courts Gabon as a close partner in West Africa.

“The visit of the [Chinese] Peace Ark highlights the friendly relations between Gabon and China, and brings glory and well-being to the Gabonese people.”

Beijing is targeting Gabon to host the second Chinese military base on the African continent, marking its first military base on Africa’s western coast. On 9 October, the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation website published the excerpted Chinese-language article, which highlighted the Chinese naval visit to Gabon. The visit came amid a Chinese push to possibly establish its first military base on the western coast of Africa—and Gabon is a prospect to host this base.[i] The article indicates China’s goal was to cultivate goodwill in Gabon through the visit of its Peace Ark naval hospital ship to Gabon’s Owendo Port in the country’s capital. Among the participants in the farewell ceremony with the Gabonese Navy, for example, were non-military personnel, such as overseas Chinese businesspeople in Gabon, Confucius Institute[ii] representatives, and Chinese diplomatic personnel and medical teams.

The Peace Ark naval hospital ship held joint exercises with the Gabonese Navy on maritime rescue and evacuation between 26 September and 3 October. Yet, the most impactful mission of the hospital ship during the visit to Gabon was related to “soft power,” with it providing medical treatment to 6,934 Gabonese civilians, including 171 surgeries, and delivering four babies. Further, as part of the visit, Chinese medical teams were dispatched from the naval hospital ship to schools to promote health education and to hospitals to support Gabonese doctors, while also playing a friendly soccer match with the Gabonese military.

The Chinese campaign for influence in Gabon differs from Russia, which is unable to provide the same breadth of combined military and medical support to a country like Gabon. China is able to parlay its military support with significant investment, including more than 4 million Euros to Gabon in the weeks prior to this naval hospital ship’s visit to the country, which again Russia is unable to match.[iii] The Chinese campaign in Gabon is seeing results, with the Gabonese president publicly welcoming the Belt and Road Initiative’s expansion into the country.[iv] China is, therefore, primed to increase its influence in Gabon, including potentially establishing a base in the country, while also outflanking other geopolitical powers, such as Russia, for influence in Africa in the long run.

Sources:

““和平方舟”号医院船结束访问加蓬，离港时与加蓬海军举行联合演练 (The “Peace Ark” Hospital Ship Ends Visit to Gabon, Conducting a Joint Exercise with the Gabonese Navy When Leaving the Port),” focac.org, (official website of FOCAC, which is the official forum between all African states except Eswatini and China), 9 October 2024. https://www.focac.org/zfgx/hpaq/202410/t20241009_11504024.htm

The Chinese Navy’s Peace Ark hospital ship slowly sailed away from the Port of Owendo, Gabon, after successfully completing its visit to Gabon. More than 300 people, including Ambassador to Gabon Zhou Ping, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Gabonese Navy Diwaku, embassy staff, overseas Chinese in Gabon, representatives of the Confucius Institute and the medical aid team to Gabon attended the farewell ceremony. This was the first joint maritime search and rescue exercise between the Chinese and Gabonese navies.

In addition to the main platform for treatment, the hospital ship also sent expert teams and patrol teams to local hospitals for diagnosis and treatment The visit of the Peace Ark hospital ship was highly appreciated by the Gabonese government.

Notes:

[i] See: Jacob Zenn, “China’s Initiates Push To Establish A Military Base In Gabon,” OE Watch, 06-2024. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/chinas-initiates-push-to-establish-a-military-base-in-gabon/

[ii] China’s Confucius Institutes are often situated at university campuses abroad “to promote the Chinese language and cultural activities among students and researchers” but they “unswervingly” serve the Communist Party’s goals and are, therefore, part of Chinese soft power projection. As a result of Confucius Institutes’ ties with the Communist Party, an increasing number of them have been shut down in the West, but they are still expanding in Africa and the Middle East. Mordechai Chaziza, “China’s Soft Power Projection Strategy: Confucius Institutes in the MENA Region,” Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, 25 July 2023. https://besacenter.org/chinas-soft-power-projection-strategy-confucius-institutes-in-the-mena-region/

[iii] “Le Gabon attire 4,3 milliards $ d’investissements chinois (Gabon attracts $4.3 billion of Chinese investment),” Agence Ecofin [Cameroon— and Switzerland-based French-language website primarily covering African political economics]. 4 September 2024. https://www.agenceecofin.com/economie/0409-121241-le-gabon-attire-4-3-milliards-dinvestissements-chinois

[iv] See: “(FOCAC) Interview: China is a true friend that stands with Gabon through thick and thin, says Gabonese president,” news.cn [website of the official state news agency of the People’s Republic of China]. 5 September 2024. https://english.news.cn/20240905/11512527b9eb47799078488bbb0c3e31/c.html

Image information:

Image: Gabon’s Port Gentil is the country’s second largest city and its airport and seaport will likely increasingly host military and business visitors from China as China courts Gabon as a close partner in West Africa.
Source: Brian Ecton, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:POG-Airport.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

China Debuts Fifth-Generation Stealth Fighter

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An image of the J-35A released by CCTV Military’s official Weibo account.

“The debut of the J-35A marks China becoming the second country in the world, after the United States, to simultaneously field two stealth fighter jets.”

China hosted the 2024 International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition in Zhuhai from 12 to 17 November 2024. The event showcased a range of new and upcoming advanced weapons, including attack helicopters, UAVs, and robots. Notably, it marked the debut of China’s newest fifth-generation stealth fighter, the J-35A.[i]

The first excerpted article, published by the Global Times, a CCP tabloid newspaper, features an interview with Wang Yongqing, director of the Science and Technology Committee at Shenyang Aviation Industry Corporation of China.[ii] Wang Yongqing highlights that the J-35A incorporates enhanced stealth capabilities through breakthrough technologies, with a focus on all-domain warfare. The J-35A could be tasked with a range of missions, including seizing and maintaining air superiority, engaging ground and sea air defense systems, and intercepting enemy fighters, bombers, cruise missiles, and other airborne threats. Furthermore, Wang Yongqing elaborates that the J-35 is a “one machine with multiple types” platform, highlighting its versatility in supporting the development of multiple variants tailored to specific mission requirements while enabling efficient scaling for rapid production. This versatility includes a J-35 variant’s anticipated deployment aboard China’s Type 003 Fujian aircraft carrier.[iii]

The second excerpted article, published by Direct News, a news outlet controlled by the propaganda department of the Shenzhen municipal committee, disputes claims that the J-35 is merely a copy of the U.S. F-35. The article states the two stealth jets share some design similarities but differ in stealth effectiveness, bomb bay design, engine performance, and aerodynamic shape, reflecting China’s unique combat assumptions and tactical approaches, which diverge from those of Western countries. The debut of the J-35A demonstrates China’s advancement in stealth technology and broader aviation engineering, yet challenges and uncertainties remain in achieving parity with the United States.

China’s progress in fighter development is undeniable; however, noticeable differences exist in the operational and combat experience of Chinese fifth-generation fighters compared to their U.S. counterparts.[iv] For example, U.S. F-22s and F-35s have flown numerous combat missions in the Middle East and Afghanistan, providing invaluable real-world insights into their capabilities while also demonstrating the proficiency of their pilots. Additionally, while the unveiling of the J-35A underscores China’s ambition to challenge U.S. military capabilities, the absence of detailed specifications and lack of real-world operational insights make it difficult to assess whether the J-35A’s technological sophistication and performance rival or exceed the U.S. fifth-generation fighters.[v]

Sources:

Fan Wei and Liu Xuanzun, “歼-35A研制单位首席专家：研制新装备，根本还是为了让人民过上好日子 (The chief expert of the J-35A development unit: the fundamental purpose of developing new equipment is to ensure a better life for the people),” Global Times (a tabloid newspaper under the CCP), 11 November 2024. https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1815388616265828340&wfr=spider&for=pc

The debut of the J-35A positions China as the second country in the world, after the United States with its F-22 and F-35, to operate two stealth fighters simultaneously. Wang Yongqing, director of the Science and Technology Committee at the Shenyang Institute of Aviation Industry Corporation of China, told the Global Times during the Zhuhai Airshow that the J-35A strengthens China’s combat system network. He emphasized that the development of new equipment is fundamentally aimed at preventing aggression, promoting national development, and ensuring a better quality of life for the people.

In response to questions from Global Times about the new features of the J-35A, Wang highlighted the aircraft’s advancements in stealth, information integration, networking, and intelligence. He explained that the J-35 adopted several new technologies to enhance its stealth capabilities and noted the significant progress and innovation made in these areas. Wang also emphasized the aircraft’s focus on information warfare, coordinated warfare, and all-domain operations.

Regarding the J-35A’s technical features and its potential to cooperate with other fighter jets, Wang provided insight into the aircraft’s design. He stated that the J-35A is capable of seizing and maintaining air control, attacking enemy third and fourth-generation fighters, and defending against ground and sea-based air defense systems. The fighter is also designed to intercept enemy aircraft, bombers, cruise missiles, and other aerial threats.

Wang further asserted that the J-35A can engage previous-generation aircraft while staying outside the enemy’s effective detection range, achieving “one-way transparency” on the battlefield. This gives China an overwhelming advantage, allowing for the detection and neutralization of the enemy first. Against aircraft of the same generation, the J-35A’s lethality and survivability, along with its advanced coordinated combat capabilities, allow it to disrupt the enemy’s targeting abilities and gain a tactical advantage. He correlates the role of the J-35A as the “point guard on the basketball court.”

Wang also discussed the J-35’s development as a “one aircraft, multiple types” platform. The aircraft’s overall layout and technology research have matured key technologies, reducing research and production costs. This approach, he explained, will enable China’s air defense forces to scale up quickly and enhance their combat capabilities.

Qiu Yatong, “美媒承认：所谓“歼-35抄袭F-35”根本是无稽之谈 (US media acknowledges: the so-called “J-35 copying the F-35” is completely nonsense),” Direct News (news outlet controlled by the propaganda department of the Shenzhen municipal committee), 09 November 2024. https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1815256338816862194&wfr=spider&for=pc

On November 12, the 15th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition will be held in Zhuhai, featuring the much-anticipated J-35A stealth fighter, which recently made a surprise appearance at Zhuhai Jinwan Airport. Reuters confirmed the J-35A’s participation, describing it as a medium-stealth, multi-purpose fighter and highlighting it as the biggest draw of the air show. Reuters emphasized that advancing aerospace design and manufacturing capabilities, exemplified by the J-35, has become a critical strategic priority for China.

The debut of the J-35A positions China as the second country, after the United States, to operate two stealth fighters simultaneously, marking the beginning of its “double fifth-generation aircraft” era. While little is publicly known about the fighter’s performance and combat specifications, it is widely believed that the J-35A will serve aboard the Chinese Navy’s Type 003 aircraft carrier, Fujian.

For years, Western media have baselessly accused China of copying weapons designs, including claims that the J-35 is a direct imitation of the U.S. F-35. However, significant differences exist between the two aircraft, such as nose shape, engine tail nozzle, wing shape, and tail design, making these accusations unfounded and misleading.

Wu Wei, senior editor at Direct News, remarked that the Western tendency to compare the J-35 with the F-35 stems from subconscious bias. He noted that while the two aircraft share similar model numbers and overall appearance, the J-35 is distinct in reflecting China’s unique assumptions about combat scenarios and tactical priorities. Differences include stealth effectiveness, bomb bay design, engine performance, and aerodynamic shape, all of which highlight China’s independent approach to stealth fighter development and application.

Notes:

[i] To watch an official news segment on the J-35A unveiling, see CCTV7 news coverage, CCTV7 Military Report, 14 November 2024. https://tv.cctv.com/2024/11/14/VIDEf28pCkOpF9xOoD1NcEKJ241114.shtml

[ii] To watch an interview with Wang Yongqing discussing the J-35A, see Global Times’ official video interview, Global Times, 12 November 2024. https://haokan.baidu.com/v?pd=wisenatural&vid=5212300448341909343

[iii] Maya Carlin, “J-35A vs. F-35: Can China’s New Fighter Jet Match Up?,” National Interest, 18 November 2024. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/j-35a-vs-f-35-can-chinas-new-fighter-jet-match-213760

[iv] Lin Nai-Chuan, “China showcases new stealth fighter at Zhuhai air show,” Voice of America, 13 November 2024. https://www.voanews.com/a/china-showcases-new-stealth-fighter-at-zhuhai-air-show/7863356.html

[v] Sebastien Roblin, “China Is Unleashing a New Stealth Fighter, And It’s a Direct Challenge to America,” Popular Mechanics, 14 November 2024. https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a62906352/china-new-stealth-fighter-j-35a/

Image Information:

Image: An image of the J-35A released by CCTV Military’s official Weibo account.
Source: https://weibo.com/6189120710/OEODkqT6a?layerid=5097277586408330
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

China Unveils New High-Power Microwave Weapon Systems

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“High-power microwave weapons represent not only a leap forward in military technology, but also a major shift in the future war model. Whoever can seize the strategic commanding heights may gain the upper hand in future wars.”

China unveiled at least three mobile, ground-based, high-power microwave-directed energy weapon systems during the Zhuhai Air Show in November. According to the excerpted article published on Chinese blog and news outlet Sina, these weapons are capable of paralyzing hundreds of drones with one strike and could give China an advantage in future wars. The article argues that the new weapon system will be an especially important counter-drone technology. The article outlines several key advantages of the high-power microwave weapons:

  1. They can quickly deploy, lock onto, and attack a target the moment it comes into range
  2. They produce electromagnetic pulses over a wide area and can attack multiple drones simultaneously
  3. They are economical to employ, do not consume ammunition, such as missiles and artillery, and can be launched multiple times in succession
  4. They are ideal in more complex environments, including urban settings, compared to traditional kinetic weapons, preventing civilian casualties and preserving necessary infrastructure

Specifically, China North Industries Group Corporation unveiled the Hurricane 2000 and Hurricane 3000 high-power microwave weapons systems. The article describes the first system as a large, flat array mounted on top of an 8×8 light armored vehicle chassis[i] or similar variant. The system features a small rotating radar for target detection and tracking. The second system, larger than the first, is mounted on a Shaanxi Auto SX2400/2500 series 8×8 truck. It also includes “planar arrays and radars.” Some sources claim the Hurricane 2000 and Hurricane 3000 have an effective range of 2000 to 3000 meters, an order of a magnitude higher than the U.S. manufactured Leonidas high-power microwave weapon system.[ii] The article also describes a third high-power microwave weapon system, which comes from China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation. Like the Hurricane 3000, it rides atop the Shaanxi Auto SX2400/2500 series 8×8 trucks.

According to the article, China has achieved major breakthroughs in the field of high-energy microwave weapons, which could indeed give it an edge in future warfare. Finally, China’s microwave weapon systems underscore its commitment to developing advanced weapons technologies, particularly to counter emerging aerial threats, such as UAVs.

Sources:

“无人机的新克星：国产高功率微波武器现身 (A New Drone Opponent: Unveiling the Domestic High-Powered Microwave Weapon),” Sina (Chinese blog and news outlet), 18 November 2024. https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2024-11-18/doc-incwmras0246638.shtml

At this year’s China Air Show, at least three domestically-produced large-scale mobile ground-based high-power microwave directed energy weapons were unveiled. This type of weapon can be regarded as a killer weapon to deal with drone swarm attacks. It has not only become a hot spot of the air show, but also once again highlighted the strength of China’s military industry.

In recent years, the use of drones for reconnaissance and attack on the battlefield by militaries around the world has increased… This has made armies of various countries strongly aware of the urgency to expand their defense systems against drone threats. However, traditional air defense systems are not always effective against these types of small and flexible aerial targets. In this context, high-energy microwave weapons have emerged as a new way to counter drones and have significant advantages in actual combat.

The primary advantages of high-energy microwave weapons in anti-UAV operations are: First…rapid response… Second, they cover a wide area. The third is they are more efficient… The fourth is non-lethal…

China North Industries Group Corporation (NORINCO) has launched two high-power microwave weapons systems, the “Hurricane 2000” and the “Hurricane 3000.”

The first system consists of a large flat array mounted on the top of an 8×8 light armored vehicle chassis. The system is equipped with a small rotating radar, which is likely used for target detection and tracking. Its chassis resembles the one used in the 625E self-propelled short-range air defense system. The latter system is larger than the former, mounted on the Shaanxi Auto SX2400/2500 series 8×8 trucks. It also includes planar arrays and radars. Video broadcast at the scene showed a small drone being shot down by one of the systems, and infrared camera footage was also seen. Electro-optical and infrared cameras are usually used with directional It can be combined with anti-UAV systems to help accurately identify and track targets. It is estimated that the “Hurricane 2000” should be mainly used for field mobile accompanying air defense, while the “Hurricane 3000” may be used for fixed-point air defense missions in key areas.

In addition, photos of a third high-power microwave weapon system also appeared at the air show. This system comes from China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation and is also installed on Shaanxi Automobile SX2400/2500 series trucks. The microwave array is mounted on an articulated bracket of a different style at the rear of the vehicle. There should also be sensors such as radar in the dome on the retractable mast at the end of the cab…

China has made major breakthroughs in the field of high-energy microwave weapons and has begun to enter the international arms market. As the frequency of use of weapons such as drones and cruise missiles in modern warfare increases, countries are also increasingly demanding means to counter these threats. High-energy microwave weapons, as a type of weapon with strong anti-drone capabilities and relatively The lower-cost option is likely to attract global attention. In the future, China is expected to become a leading country in the export of such equipment.

Notes:

[i] The referenced Hurricane 2000 sits on top of a vehicle resembling one used in China’s Type 625E self-propelled short-range air defense system, which the country unveiled during the November 2022 Zhuhai Air Show. To read more about the Type 625E air defense system and view an image, see Emma Helfrich, “This is China’s Beastly New Air Defense Vehicle,” The Warzone (a U.S. online magazine that looks at national security and geopolitical coverage and analysis, with an emphasis on military technology, strategy, and foreign policy), 18 November 2022. https://www.twz.com/this-is-chinas-beastly-new-chinese-air-defense-vehicle

[ii] “反无人机利器，“飓风”微波武器，有效距离比美高出一个数量级 (The“Hurricane Anti-Drone Weapon has an Effective Range an Order of Magnitude Higher Than That of the United States),” Net Ease (one of China’s largest internet companies, subject to government regulatory oversight and censorship), 18 November 2024. https://www.163.com/dy/article/JHA8HFMA0553OOJA.html

Damage to Undersea Cables in Baltic Hint at China – Russia Collusion

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The Baltic Fulmar was sold to a Chinese shipowner in 2023 and renamed the NewNew Polar Bear. The NewNew Polar Bear is suspected of severing undersea cables in the Baltics.

“Investigators suspect that a Chinese vessel is the perpetrator of the incident. The incident was sharply reacted to by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who said that it ‘is not an accidental accident, but a deliberate sabotage.”

On 19 November, the Danish Navy detained the Chinese-flagged bulk carrier Yi Pang 3 under the suspicion that it had damaged undersea cables connecting Finland and Germany and cables connection Sweden and Lithuania. As per the first excerpted article in the Polish defense publication Defense24, the Yi Pang 3 had sailed from the Russian port of Ust-Lugu before passing through the Baltic Sea. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius called the incident deliberate sabotage but did not delineate a responsible party. According to the second excerpted article from the Indian publication The Week, Russia may be the culprit, given that the Yi Pang 3 was captained by a Russian. Additional western sources point to Russia as well.[i] However, the incident is the second involving a Chinese-flagged ship damaging undersea cables in the Baltic.[ii] It also comes on the heels of Western efforts to isolate China from the undersea cable network in the Indo-Pacific and suspicion of Chinese hacking into existing undersea cables in the region.[iii] Two months prior, in September 2024, Chinese officials excoriated the U.S. and its allies’ efforts to control the global undersea cable network.[iv]

It is highly probable that both Russia and China are complicit in the acts of sabotage against critical Western infrastructure. Both China and Russia have a shared interest in degrading Western capabilities: China’s confrontations with the West regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea and Russia’s confrontations with the West over control of Ukraine. Both China and Russia have recently engaged in hybrid or non-lethal forms of warfare, leading multiple Western leaders to suspect and accuse them of sabotage.

Sources:

“Danish Navy Stopped Chinese Ship Suspected of Damaging Undersea Cables,” Defense24 (Polish based security focused news outlet), 20 November 2024. https://defence24.com/armed-forces/danish-navy-stopped-a-chinese-ship-suspected-of-damaging-undersea-cables?utm_source=archives.internationalintrigue.io&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=tense-moments-at-this-year-s-g20&_bhlid=0108ca30f9c9a3a247f66f2e0da3ce1af250d1cd

The detention took place in the area of Danish territorial waters, in the Danish Straits at the exit of the Great Belt. The detention of the vessel was carried out by the Danish Navy patrol vessel P525. After a few hours, another vessel HDMS Soeloeven, which is specialised for underwater work, reached both vessels. The detention of the vessel occurred on the evening of 19 November.

There is no information on whether there was an inspection of the vessel by the Danish MW’s boarding group. The Chinese vessel was sailing from the Russian port of Ust-Luga.

There is no official announcement from the Danish authorities as yet either, but the Chinese bulk carrier is suspected of damaging telecommunications cables lying on the bottom of the Baltic Sea. The vessel was said to have sailed over the damaged cables between Finland and Germany, the so- called C-Lion1, and between cables connecting Sweden and Lithuania.

Investigators suspect that a Chinese vessel is the perpetrator of the incident. The incident was sharply reacted to by German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, who said that it “is not an accidental accident, but a deliberate sabotage.”

This is not the first time that a Chinese naval vessel has been responsible for damaging strategic infrastructure in the Baltic. In October 2023, the Balticconenctor gas pipeline connecting Estonia and Finland was unsealed. The gas pipeline was damaged by an anchor dropped from the deck of the Chinese container ship NewNew Polar Bear. The vessel was suspected of being the perpetrator of that incident from the outset, but it was not decided to detain it and it escaped from the Baltic Sea without consequences.

Source: “Not Russia? Chinese cargo vessel “Yi Peng 3” likely behind the sabotage of undersea cables in Baltic,” The Week (India based news service), 21 November 2024. https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2024/11/21/not-russia-chinese-cargo-yi-peng-3-likely-behind-the-sabotage-of-undersea-cables-in-baltic.html

A Chinese cargo vessel ‘Yi Peng 3’ is said to be “of interest” in connection with the alleged sabotage of two undersea communication cables in the Baltic Sea. The ship is said to have passed two cables on Sunday and Monday around the same time they were found to be severed, said reports.

Though there is no official confirmation in this regard, the Danish Navy is said to have detained the Chinese-registered cargo ship, allegedly helmed by a Russian captain. The detention allegedly took place inside the Danish territorial waters by the Danish Navy patrol vessel P525. Soon another vessel HDMS Soeloeven, which specialises in underwater work, joined the P525.

However, it is not clear whether the Danish Navy officials boarded the Chinese vessel which was said to be sailing from the Russian port of Ust-Luga.

Besides Denmark, Sweden too is taking an active interest in the ship. Sweden’s National Operative Department said it is “part of the sphere of interest, but there may be more.”

As per the data by Vesselfinder tracking data, Yi Peng 3’s last port visit was on November 15 in Ust-Luga in western Russia, close to the border with Estonia.

It stopped overnight on Tuesday to Wednesday in the Kattegat strait between Denmark and Sweden. The ship was then said to be moving along a strange route and stopped overnight on Tuesday to Wednesday in the Kattegat strait between Denmark and Sweden.

The ship was travelling 78 km at an average speed of 10.4 km/h and the transponder, which relays the data of the ship, at the time was inactive. Though the vessel’s AIS data shows that it circled just off Bornholm for about an hour, this is attributed to strong winds at that time and in that region.

However, Russian maritime pilot Alexander Stechentsev, who boarded the ship to guide it out of port, told The Guardian that there “was nothing unusual about the vessel.” He added that he took the ship to a receiving buoy located 11 miles offshore before disembarking.This isn’t the first that a Chinese vessel is destroying an underwater asset in the Baltic Sea. In 2022, the Chinese container vessel, the ‘NewNew Polar Bear’ had damaged a gas pipeline after its anchor dragged it across the seabed. China acknowledged the incident but claimed that the vessel accidentally damaged the pipeline due to stormy conditions that were prevailing at the time.

Notes:

[i] The view that Russia is behind the sabotage is also supported by at least one article in the U.S press. See: “Chinese-Registered Ship Is Held in Baltic Sea Sabotage Investigation,” The Wall Street Journal, 20 November 2024. https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/chinese-registered-ship-is-held-in-baltic-sea-sabotage-investigation-27929472

[ii] In October 2023 the Chinese flagged NewNew Polar Bear cut an undersea pipeline and communications cable in the Baltic. That ship was also piloted by a Russian crew and escaped the area without being detained.  China eventually said the NewNew Polar Bear had indeed damaged the critical undersea infrastructure but noted it was an accident. For an Australian perspective see: Cynthia Mehboob, “Commentary: Beijing’s Baltic confession exposes undersea vulnerability,” Channel News Asia (Singapore-based news service), 15 August 2024. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/china-ship-pipeline-accident-sabotage-damage-undersea-cable-europe-asia-4545766

[iii] For background information on the recent undersea cable dispute with China, see: Dodge Billingsley, “China Creating Undersea Cable Network In Response To United States Isolation Efforts, OE Watch, 07-2024. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/china-creating-undersea-cable-network-in-response-to-united-states-isolation-efforts/; and Dodge Billingsley, “Potential Flashpoint Stemming From Undersea Cable Network Access Restrictions,” OE Watch, 06-2024. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/potential-flashpoint-stemming-from-undersea-data-cable-network-access-restrictions/

[iv] “US politicization of undersea cables opposed,” Global Times (English language newspaper under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party’s flagship newspaper, the People’s Daily), 24 September 2024. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202409/1320312.shtml

Image Information:

Image: The Baltic Fulmar was sold to a Chinese shipowner in 2023 and renamed the NewNew Polar Bear. The NewNew Polar Bear is suspected of severing undersea cables in the Baltics.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newnew_Polar_Bear – /media/File:Baltic_Fulmar_(ship,_2005)_IMO_9313204,_Maasmond,_Port_of_Rotterdam_pic4.JPG
Attribution: Public Domain