Author Archives: Cindy Hurst

China Blurs Lines Between Military Drills and War

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PLAAF Sukhoi Su-30s like this one participated in Joint-Sword-2024B in October 2024.

“As China’s military drills around Taiwan increase, it is becoming harder to discern when Beijing might be transitioning from a training exercise to war.”

China’s military exercises, which include many incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zones (ADIZ), have begun to blur the lines between military exercises and actual war, according to the first article excerpt, published in the online newspaper Taiwan News. In May 2024, after Taiwan’s newly elected president, Lai Ching-te delivered a pro-independence speech, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched Joint-Sword-2024A, a series of exercises surrounding Taiwan and its outer island territories. China referred to these exercises as a “powerful punishment for separatist forces seeking independence.”[i] Five months later, while Taiwan celebrated National Day of the Republic of China (Taiwan Independence Day),[ii] the PLA launched Joint-Sword-2024B, during which they sent planes across the median line in the Taiwan Strait. This was another stern warning against Taiwan’s independence. The second excerpt published on Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense website noted the exercises lasted multiple days, with the biggest incursion taking place on 14 October. On that day, as many as 153 PLA aircraft, 14 PLAN vessels, and 12 official ships operating around Taiwan were detected, with 111 of the aircraft crossing the median line and entering Taiwan’s western, southwestern, and eastern ADIZ.

According to the Taiwan News article, Defense Minister Wellington Koo believes China is testing its ability to attack in various ways, including through gray zone tactics and cognitive operations, joint sea and air training, and targeted military exercises. Its gray zone tactics and cognitive operations can be seen in the ongoing military exercises, which could instill a sense of complacency within Taiwan and among its allies as Chinese military exercises surrounding Taiwan become more normalized. However, one day, a training scenario could unexpectedly escalate into all-out war.[iii] Koo warns that as the scale of China’s exercises grows, it will be increasingly difficult to discern when the PLA is transitioning from “training to a large exercise, and from a large exercise to war.”

Sources:

Lily LaMattina, “Taiwan Says China’s Growing Military Activity Makes Exercise and War Harder to Differentiate,” Taiwan News (Taiwan-based English language news service), 19 September 2024. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5938651

As China’s military drills around Taiwan increase, it is becoming harder to discern when Beijing might be transitioning from a training exercise to war, said Defense Minister Wellington Koo (顧立雄).

Koo stressed, “We must consider how we differentiate between peacetime and wartime.” He said that as the scale of China’s exercises grows, it will be more difficult to discern when Chinese troops are transitioning from “training to a large exercise, and from a large exercise to war.”

Taiwan has counted 2,076 incursions this year by China’s People’s Liberation Army into its air defense identification zone (ADIZ). Beijing has also sent non-military government ships such as coastguard, marine research, and maritime safety vessels.

“Ministry of National Defense, ROC(Taiwan),” Ministry of National Defense website (official website of the Ministry of National Defense), accessed 17 October 2024. https://x.com/mondefense?lang=en

October 10: Taiwan celebrates its National Day of the Republic of China.

14 October (up until 0600): 153 PLA aircraft, 14 PLAN vessels, and 12 official ships operating around Taiwan detected. 111 of the aircraft crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s western, southwestern, and eastern ADIZ.

Notes:

[i] For more information, see Cindy Hurst, “Taiwan President’s Inaugural Speech Prompts Chinese Military Drills,” OE Watch, 07-2024. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/taiwan-presidents-inaugural-speech-prompts-chinese-military-drills/

[ii] National Day of the Republic of China commemorates the start of the Wuchang Uprising, overthrowing the Qing Dynasty in 1911. Shortly after, on 1 January 1920, they established the Republic of China. In 1949, pushed out of power by Mao Zedong’s Communists, the Republic of China relocated to Taiwan.

[iii] There are similarities between the recent Chinese exercises and events that led up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine when Russian forces began massing troops near the borders of Ukraine, calling it military exercises, right before the invasion. “Timeline: The Events Leading Up to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” Reuters, 1 March 2022. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/events-leading-up-russias-invasion-ukraine-2022-02-28/

OE Watch Insight Summary:

CHN’s increasing military exercises, gray-zone tactics, and cognitive warfare, could blur the lines between peacetime and wartime, causing TWN and its allies to grow complacent. 

Image Information:

Image: PLAAF Sukhoi Su-30s like this one participated in Joint-Sword-2024B in October 2024.
Source: Dmitriy Pichugin, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Air_Force#/media/File:PLAAF_Sukhoi_Su-30_at_Lipetsk-2_(modified).jpg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0

Possible New Chinese Frigate Offers Clues on Future Weapons Testing

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A People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) 8 round HQ-10 short range surface to air missile system shown on a Type 056 corvette used by both PLAN and Chinese Coast Guard. Other sources note this image as the 8 round FL-3000N short range surface to air missile. However, the FL-3000N is basically the export version of the PLAN HQ-10, with relatively the same capabilities.

“The fact is that this frigate is more like a technology verification platform. Through it, the PLA can test new technologies and designs on a smaller scale and accumulate experience for future large stealth ships.”

An image of a new stealth corvette or possibly light frigate[i] moored to a pier appearing on Chinese social media and blogs has drawn significant attention and speculation. According to the excerpted article published in the popular pro-government Chinese website Sohu, some observers speculate that the new warship will be classified as a Type-057 frigate and replace the Type-056. Despite being smaller than the Type-056, the Type-057 frigate incorporates a unique stealth design, featuring an integrated mast design that can significantly reduce enemy radar detection. The hull’s surface is smooth and inclined, with no edges or corners, which gives it a smaller optical and infrared signature, making it difficult to detect.[ii]

Notably, the ship fields what looks to be the Hongqi-10 short-range air defense missile launcher. However, according to the second excerpted article published on the tightly regulated website hosted by China’s largest multinational technology conglomerate, Tencent, some sources believe the apparatus could be a ship-borne laser weapon system used to counter threats from drones, missiles, and small speedboats. Laser weapons can attack targets at the speed of light, as the first article points out, which significantly improves the response time. Additionally, a high-energy weapon system operates without emitting detectable electromagnetic signals during operation, which further reduces the likelihood of being detected by the adversary, increasing its survivability.[iii]

However, the Type-057 likely lacks combat effectiveness because of its smaller design, which allows limited space for weapons. Hence, as the excerpted article from Sohu speculates, the ship’s existence could serve as a platform to test some of China’s newer technologies on a smaller scale and to gain experience for future large stealth ships, but at a lower cost. There is no evidence that the PLAN will ultimately populate its fleet with this new stealth frigate. However, at the very least, its presence, according to the Tencent article, has “already given people a glimpse of future warfare.”

Sources:  

“我国再添重器，解放军057隐形护卫舰再次亮相！台媒眼馋：科幻产物 (my country adds another heavy weapon, the PLA 057 stealth frigate makes its debut again! Taiwanese media are jealous: a science fiction product),” sohu.com (popular pro-government Chinese-language website targeting a youth and gaming readership), 1 September 2024. https://roll.sohu.com/a/805465679_121966179

It is speculated that this new warship will be named 057 frigate and will shoulder the heavy responsibility of replacing 056 frigate…

The biggest feature of this frigate is It is its unique stealth design – the surface of the hull is inclined and smooth, with almost no edges or corners. This design can not only effectively reduce the exposure of optical and infrared signals, but also significantly reduce the chance of being detected by radar and sonar. When facing enemy reconnaissance, it can almost “come without a trace and go without a trace”.

From a distance, it seems to be equipped with Hongqi 10 short-range air defense missiles. But upon closer inspection, this is most likely an advanced ship-borne laser weapon. This configuration will greatly enhance its survivability and combat capabilities in complex battlefield environments.

The introduction of laser cannons is actually a revolutionary advancement. This weapon is launched at the speed of light and hits the target instantly, which is a perfect solution for the modern battlefield that requires rapid response…

So, what is the significance of the existence of the Type 057? The fact is that this frigate is more like a technology verification platform. Through it, the PLA can test new technologies and designs on a smaller scale and accumulate experience for future large stealth ships. This approach not only reduces the risk of testing new technologies on full-scale warships, but also saves costs.

Source: Meng Yan, “解放军新型护卫舰亮相，一大装置让台媒直呼科幻 (The PLA Unveiled Its New Frigate, Large Device Prompts Taiwanese Media to Call It Science Fiction),” Tencent (China’s largest multinational technology conglomerate, operating within a tightly regulated media and tech environment), 08 September 2024. https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240906A07E7Z00

At the same time, the frigate adopts an integrated mast design. This integrated structure can significantly reduce radar reflection signals and improve stealth performance.

The most important thing is that an “unprecedented” device appeared on this stealth frigate, which looks similar to the HQ-10 ship-to-air missile launcher. U.S. media speculated that this might be a ship-borne laser cannon weapon system. Generally speaking, light stealth frigates undertake regional defense and maritime patrol missions and may face threats from drones, missiles and small speedboats. If equipped with laser cannons, they can attack targets at the speed of light, further improving the response speed.

Some analysts said that the emergence of this new stealth frigate not only means technological progress, but also a concrete manifestation of the strategic transformation of the Chinese Navy. Now that the Chinese Navy is shifting from coastal defense to blue water escort, this type of ship with advanced stealth technology and equipped with more lethal weapons will become an important pillar of the PLA’s future operations.

But it is different as a test ship. By testing and verifying key technologies such as the ship design and stealth design of the new generation of ships on board, it can lay the foundation for the birth of more advanced ships in the future.

Notes:

[i] There have been differing opinions on what type of ship this is. Some observers are referring to it as a corvette class and others as a frigate. The difference between the two classifications is that

[ii] For more information and an image of the ship, please see “China’s New Stealth Warship Unveiled: Possible Laser Weapon Testing Sparks Speculation,” Army Recognition Group website, 6 September 2024. https://armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2024/chinas-new-stealth-warship-unveiled-possible-laser-weapon-testing-sparks-speculation

[iii] An earlier report published on bulgarianmilitary.com, talks about China putting high-energy weapons on it Type 057 warship. See Boyko Nikolov, “China is Putting High-Energy Weapons on Its Type 057 Warship,” bulgarianmilitary.com, 8 February 2024. https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/02/08/china-is-putting-high-energy-weapons-on-its-type-057-warship/

Image Information:

Image: A People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) 8 round HQ-10 short range surface to air missile system shown on a Type 056 corvette used by both PLAN and Chinese Coast Guard. Other sources note this image as the 8 round FL-3000N short range surface to air missile. However, the FL-3000N is basically the export version of the PLAN HQ-10, with relatively the same capabilities.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HQ-10 – /media/File:Type_056_corvette_FL-3000N_8-round_SAM_launcher.jpg

China Introduces New Unmanned Systems in Combat Exercises

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China’s DJI Mavic Air 2 drone in flight.

“In many exercises during the second half of this year, there will be more intelligent AI armaments unveiled.”

China introduced and employed some of its unmanned systems during recent combat exercises, highlighting how it plans to dominate the future battlefield. In the exercise, “Peace Unity-2024,” Chinese participants worked closely with Tanzanian military personnel on new drone combat techniques.[i] According to the article excerpt, published by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology’s official newspaper Science and Technology Daily, the exercise involved combatting a group of (imaginary) armed terrorists infiltrating town blocks to carry out attacks and take hostages. Reconnaissance, armored personnel, special warfare, artillery, and other combat units from both China and Tanzania worked together, while relying on infantry fighting vehicles, assault vehicles, and unmanned reconnaissance aircraft to locate and eliminate the “terrorists.” The article explains that once the drones took off, the Chinese reconnaissance team was able to transmit intelligence to the joint command post for Tanzanian and Chinese commanders to analyze and determine the battlefield situation. A Tanzanian reconnaissance team guided Chinese special forces in from the sea undetected. Once on station, blockading the perimeter, they used a “multi-channel concentric attack” approach to attack the terrorists at multiple points, expelling and eliminating them.

In a previous exercise, “Golden Dragon-2024,” which took place with Cambodia in May, the PLA featured a combat robot dog. Equipped with an automatic rifle, these battery-operated robot dogs could one day replace soldiers. A video published by the Chinese majority state-owned television network Phoenix News Media, shows the combat robot dog entering a building with soldiers. As described in the video transcript, the robot dog can reportedly navigate obstacles and fire at targets. Another video[ii] claims that the combat robot dog can even plan routes, approach targets, and avoid obstacles, making it ideal for urban combat operations. The first video also showcased an unmanned combat vehicle. The combat vehicle is said to have the same type of rifle and machine gun weapon stations as the robot dog.[iii] It also reportedly can be equipped with grenade launchers, bomb disposal arms and other mission-related features. A heavy-lift drone can airdrop it to the enemy’s rear, where it can work in coordination with the combat robot dog. While the robot dog is responsible for clearing buildings and alleys, able to go up and down stairs, the combat vehicle would be responsible for outdoor operations.[iv] While these systems can now be used for remote surveillance and attack, in the future, China envisions using unmanned systems to develop and deploy logistics, transporting supplies, and other items. In short, as the CCTV video explains, we can expect to see unmanned weapons systems appear more and more in future Chinese combat exercise scenarios.

Sources:

Zhang Qiang et al., “‘平团结-2024’联合演习——东非演兵场打出联合反恐’组合拳’ (Peace Unity 2024 Joint Exercise: Joint Anti-Terrorism ‘Combination Punch’ Launched on the East African Military Training Ground),” Keji Ribao (Official newspaper of the PRC’s Ministry of Science and Technology), 20 August 2024. https://www.stdaily.com/web/gdxw/2024-08/20/content_216923.html

During the operation and training phase of reconnaissance equipment, the Chinese participants demonstrated different drone combat and reconnaissance operations… and worked closely with Tanzanian officers and soldiers on new drone combat operations…

During the “Peace and Unity-2024” joint exercise… Chinese participants displayed a lot of the new equipment.

As the drones took off, the Chinese reconnaissance team took the lead and sent intelligence back to the command post. In the joint command center, Chinese and Tanzanian commanders jointly analyzed and assessed the battlefield situation and ordered the joint combat group to advance quickly from the left and right sides, using “ground assault, elite troops, information blocking” and other means to attack the imaginary enemy. At the same time, Chinese special forces took the approach of infiltrating from the sea to engage the enemy covertly. Guided by the Tanzanian reconnaissance team, they effectively located and identified suspicious targets. After completing the joint reconnaissance and perimeter blockade, participating troops from both sides collaborated to adopt a “multi-channel concentric attack” approach, attacking the [imaginary] “terrorists” stationed at multiple points and the eliminating them.

“This joint exercise has a large amount of a wide variety of equipment, including some new domains of equipment such as unmanned and special warfare equipment, which is a distinct feature.”

“解放军8月持续实弹演习 凸显人工智能军事化 (The PLA’s continued live-fire exercises in August highlight the militarization of artificial intelligence),” Phoenix News Media (a majority state-owned television network that serves mainland China, Honk Kong, Macau, and other Chinese-language viewers), 17 August 2024. https://mil.ifeng.com/c/8c41qSICUbG 

The [“Peace and Unit-2024”] joint exercise between China and Tanzania focused on exploring Chinese and foreign joint performances…(they called it) A new model of joint training…

In many exercises during the second half of this year, there will more intelligent AI armaments unveiled. According to Hong Kong Sing Tao Daily, a variety of unmanned equipment developed by China has been put into actual combat exercise. For example, equipped with an automatic rifle, the assault robot dog is able to accurately snipe targets…

In the future, the PLA will use unmanned equipment in field search and rescue operations. According to Hong Kong South China Morning Post the PLA is exploring integrating unmanned equipment into combat operations. A greatly improved special operations team will have battlefield awareness and fire-strike capabilities.

In May of this year, China’s PLA unveiled the intelligent unmanned combat robot dog during the joint Cambodian “Golden Dragon-2024” Exercise, which attracted much attention… some analysts pointed out that a robot dog equipped with automatic rifle in military drills demonstrates that China is changing its traditional battlefield rules… The four-legged robot dog… conducted reconnaissance first and fired upon discovering the enemy. He is a new member of our offensive and defensive operations. In the future, (unmanned systems might) develop and deploy logistics to treat the wounded, transport supplies and other items, even be directly linked to satellites. Integrated AI armaments for remote surveillance and attack might appear in future PLA combat exercises.

Notes:

[i] Peace Unity-2024,” was a joint exercise with Mozambique and Tanzania that took place late-July through mid-August 2024.

[ii] Mikhaila Friela, “China’s Latest Weapon of War is a Gun-Toting Robot Dog,” Business Insider, 28 May 2024. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-weapon-war-machine-gun-toting-robot-dog-military-drills-2024-5

[iii] “前方高能！国产新型战斗无人车曝光 演示视频发布！搭载战斗机器狗同型步枪 可由无人机空投至“敌”后方！ (High Energy Ahead! New Domestic Unmanned Vehicle Exposed, Released Video Demonstration! Equipped With the Same Type of Rifle as the Combat Robot Dog, It Can Be Airdropped by a Drone to the Enemy Rear, Military Fans World),” CCTV Youtube channel (Chinese Government News Network), 12 July 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poHfVmg0QAg

[iv] See also CCTV Youtube video, 12 July 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poHfVmg0QAg

OE Watch Insight:

Autonomous systems, such as a unmanned combat vehicles and robotic dogs are becoming increasingly prominent in CHN’s combat training exercises.

Image Information:

Image: China’s DJI Mavic Air 2 drone in flight.
Source: Data derived from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:DJI_-_Drohne_Mavic_Air_2.JPG
Attribution: C. Stadler/Bwag, CC-BY-SA-4.0

Taiwan President’s Inaugural Speech Prompts Chinese Military Drills

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A schematic representation of Joint Sword-2024A exercises.

“Lai-style Taiwan independence” will only exacerbate the confrontation and instability across the Straits, inevitably leading to self-overestimation and self-destruction.

Summary: The inauguration of Taiwan’s new pro-independence president prompted Chinese outrage, leading Beijing to conduct large-scale military exercises which represented a “powerful punishment for the separatist forces seeking ‘independence.

During his inaugural speech on 20 May, Taiwan’s eighth president, Lai Ching-te, reaffirmed that Taiwan is a “sovereign, independent nation” and not subordinate to the People’s Republic of China, infuriating Beijing. The first article excerpt, published by Chinese Communist Party flagship newspaper Global Times, blasted Lai’s speech, calling it “a declaration of harm to Taiwan,” and “extremely dangerous.” It warned that China “will inevitably be unified… regardless of changes in the situation on the island or who holds power.”

Three days after Lai’s speech, China’s Eastern Theater Command[i] launched “Joint Sword-2024A,” a series of military exercises surrounding Taiwan and its outer island territories. The second article excerpt, from the Communist Youth League of China’s official newspaper Beijing Youth Daily, describes the exercise as a “powerful punishment for separatist forces seeking ‘independence,’” and a serious warning to external forces against “interfering and provoking” Taiwan. The article noted that “Joint Sword-2024A” focused on joint sea and air combat readiness patrols, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, and joint precision attacks on key targets surrounding Taiwan as well as around the four outlying islands. The goals of the exercise varied. Operations south of Taiwan were to strike a heavy blow to the Tainan region[ii] politically and economically: they aimed to attack Taiwan’s largest port and navy base, Kaohsiung Port, and designed to impact Taiwan’s foreign trade. Operations east of Taiwan were intended to block the country’s lifeline to energy imports, an escape route for “Taiwan independence” forces, and a support line for the United States and its allies attempting to provide assistance. At the same time, the Fujian Coast Guard conducted a comprehensive law enforcement exercise to test their joint patrol, rapid response, and emergency handling capabilities around Taiwan-controlled Wuqiu and Dongyin islands, each located within 10 nautical miles of mainland China. These islands are the main transportation routes to the Taiwan Strait and the “most advanced outposts of Taiwan Strait defense operations.” The goal of these exercises was to constrain Taiwan’s military operational capacity. While not the first time Taiwan’s actions have prompted China to launch aggressive military exercises,[iii] according to Beijing Youth Daily, this is the first time the Eastern Theater Command (publicly) mentioned the mission of “Jointly seizing comprehensive control of the battlefield.”

Sources:

“‘Lai-Style Taiwan Independence’ Agenda is a Dead-End: Global Times Editorial,” Global Times, 21 May 2024. https://tinyurl.com/259ntad3

On May 20, Lai Ching-te assumed the role of Taiwan region’s new leader and delivered his inaugural speech. Lai shamelessly stated in his speech that “the Republic of China Taiwan is a sovereign, independent nation” and “the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other,” spewing various “Taiwan independence” fallacies and hostile provocations against the Chinese mainland, once again exposing his stubborn nature as “a worker for Taiwan independence.” This speech can be described as a blatant “Taiwan independence manifesto” and “a declaration of harm to Taiwan.” It is extremely dangerous, and the Taiwan compatriots should be particularly vigilant and united in opposition.

“Lai-style Taiwan independence” will only exacerbate the confrontation and instability across the Straits, inevitably leading to self-overestimation and self-destruction.

“东部战区位台岛周边演习，三个罕见表述透露重要信号！(The Eastern Theater Command Conducts Exercises Around Taiwan; Three Rare Statements Revealed Important Signals),” Beijing Youth Daily (Official newspaper of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the Communist Youth League of China), 23 May 2024.
https://tinyurl.com/t8c4rsfa

On May 23, Li Xi, a Navy colonel and spokesperson for the Eastern Theater Command, disclosed:

From May 23 to 24, the Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army of China organized the theater army, navy, air force, rocket force and other forces to carry out the “Joint Sword-2024A” exercise around Taiwan Island, focusing on joint sea and air combat readiness patrols, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, and joint precision attacks on key targets. Ships and aircraft approached the periphery of Taiwan Island for combat patrols… This is also a powerful punishment for the separatist forces seeking “independence” and a serious warning to external forces for interference and provocation.

On May 23, the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army continued to carry out training in subjects such as sea assault, land strike, air defense and anti-submarine in the sea and air areas north and south of Taiwan Island, to test the theater troops’ actual combat capabilities in multi-domain coordination and joint strike.

On the same day, Gan Yu, spokesperson for the China Coast Guard, disclosed:… the Fujian Coast Guard organized a fleet of ships to conduct a comprehensive law enforcement exercise in the waters near Wuqiu Island and Dongyin Island to test its joint patrol, rapid response and emergency handling capabilities.

This exercise reflects the integrated design of Taiwan’s main island and outlying islands.

The outer islands cover Kinmen, Matsu Island, Wuqiu Island, and Dongyin Island…

In addition, Zhang Chi from the National Defense University also explained in an interview with CCTV that Wuqiu Island and Dongyin Island are outlying islands of Taiwan Province. Their geographical location is very important. They are the main transportation routes to the Taiwan Strait. The Taiwan military regards them as the most advanced outposts of the Taiwan Strait defense operations. ……In recent years, it has become normal practice for the Eastern Theater Command to organize military forces to conduct exercises around Taiwan Island. However, Zhengzhijun sorted out previous public reports and found that several new statements appeared in the Eastern Theater Command’s announcement. Regarding the key exercise subjects, the Eastern Theater Command’s report mentioned for the first time “Jointly seize comprehensive control of the battlefield”… In addition, CCTV News reports on the specific subjects of the first day of the exercise, which was rare as they mentioned “intelligence” many times…

Notes:

[i] China has five theater commands. The Eastern Theater Command is responsible for Taiwan and the East China Sea. For more information on the Eastern Theater Command, see “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, 2021,” Annual Report to Congress: Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2021, p. 98. https://tinyurl.com/jdredmwb

[ii] The article refers to Tainan as “The political base of Taiwan Independence.”

[iii] Previously China launched two separate rounds of exercises around Taiwan. First after former U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s August 2022 visit to Taiwan and again after former Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen visited former U.S. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy in April 2023.

OE Watch Insight:

The inauguration of TWN’s new pro-independence president prompted CHN outrage, leading Beijing to conduct large-scale military exercises which represented a “powerful punishment for the separatist forces seeking ‘independence.’”

Image Information:

Image: A schematic representation of Joint Sword-2024A exercises
Source: Data derived from https://tinyurl.com/yc55e7wd
Attribution: Cindy Hurst

China Introduces People’s Liberation Army-Information Support Force

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“The Information Support Force is a newly created strategic force and a key support for coordinating the construction and application of network information systems. It plays an important role and has a major responsibility in promoting the high-quality development of the army and winning modern wars.”

On 19 April, the Chinese Communist Party joined the Central Military Commission to unveil the new People’s Liberation Army-Information Support Force (PLA-ISF), a strategic arm of the PLA responsible for overseeing the development and application of the network information system. The PLA-ISF appears to have replaced the PLA Strategic Support Force, which was responsible for strategic missions including space-based intelligence, reconnaissance, electronic countermeasures, signals intelligence, information warfare, and communications.[i] The role and responsibilities of the PLA-ISF are expected to be much broader and will integrate artificial intelligence into military operations.

While there are still few specifics available about the PLA-ISF, the first article, published in one of Asia’s largest English-language pan-Asia digital news platforms, Asia Times, opines that the aim of the PLA-ISF is to “better integrate emerging AI, Quantum, and other technologies into multi-domain operational concept against the United States and its allies.” The author argues that this new development underscores the importance to the PLA of shifting its warfare strategy from informationized to intelligentized.  The establishment of the PLA-ISF is being hailed as a significant move. According to the second excerpted article from the PLA’s official newspaper PLA Daily, the PLA-ISF is the key support for coordinating the construction and application of network information systems.  It will improve the army’s joint combat capability and multi-domain combat capability by having a network information system at its core. Finally, it will help to achieve China’s goal of becoming a world-class force by  the 100th anniversary of the founding the PLA in 2027. This sentiment is echoed in the third excerpted article published on the website of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense. In it, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, Director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense, gave a press conference in which he explained that establishing the PLA-ISF will accelerate the pace of China’s national defense and military modernization and give the country “the ability to fight and win in modern warfare.”

Sources:

Gabriel Honrada, “New PLA Unit Underscores Intelligentized Warfare Shift,” Asia Times, (one of the region’s largest English-language pan-Asia digital news platforms.), 22 April 2024. https://asiatimes.com/2024/04/new-pla-unit-underscores-intelligentized-warfare-shift/

PLA-ISF aims to better integrate emerging AI, quantum and other technologies into multi-domain operational concept against the US and its allies.

China has just unveiled its People’s Liberation Army-Information Support Force (PLA-ISF), a rebranding of its previous PLA-Strategic Support Force (PLA-SSF) to reflect new responsibilities and capabilities and guide the military’s technology-driven integrated combat concept, Chinese state media reports said.

In contrast to traditional PLA services such as the Ground Force, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force, the PLA’s strategic arms, such as the Aerospace Force, Cyberspace Force and Joint Logistics Support, focus on more specialized areas critical to modern warfare.

Source:  “解放军报评论员：努力建设一支强大的现代化信息支援部队 (PLA Daily Commentator: Strive to Build a Strong Modern Information Support Force),” Chinese Ministry of National Defense, reposted from PLA Daily (Official newspaper of the PLA), 20 April 2024. http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/16302172.html

… As a newly created strategic branch of the military, the information support force is the key support for the coordinated construction and application of network information systems, and plays an important role in promoting the high-quality development of our army and winning the battle against the enemy. The information support force plays an important role and has great responsibilities in modern warfare. Reform will be successful and a strong army can be expected. The establishment of the information support force will definitely help improve our army’s joint combat capability and all-domain combat capability based on the network information system, and will definitely help achieve the goal of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the army as scheduled and accelerate the construction of the people’s army into a world-class army.

The reform and strengthening of the army is in full swing, and the clarion call is sounded to open a new chapter. At present, the entire army is going all out to fight a tough battle to achieve the goal of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the army. The responsibility is heavy and the mission is urgent.

Source: “信息支援部队是全新打造的战略性兵种 (The Information Support Force is a New Strategic Branch of the Military),” Chinese Ministry of National Defense website, 19 April 2024. http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/qwfb/16302053.html

Question: The conference inaugurates the Information Support Force. What kind of force is it?Wu Qian: The adjustment and establishment of information support forces is a major decision made by the CPC Central Committee and the Central Military Commission from the overall perspective of strengthening the military. It is a strategic move to build a new type of military structure and layout and improve the modern military force system with Chinese characteristics. It has great and far-reaching significance for accelerating the modernization of national defense and the military and effectively fulfilling the mission and tasks of the people’s army in the new era…

Notes:

[i] China’s Strategic Support Force was responsible for strategic missions including space-based intelligence, reconnaissance, electronic countermeasures, signals intelligence, information warfare, and communications. See Kevin McCauley, “People’s Liberation Army Changing Mission Of Civilian Personnel,” OE Watch, 06-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/peoples-liberation-army-changing-mission-of-civilian-personnel/; and Tim Thomas, “China’s New ‘4+2’ Service Branch Structure,” OE Watch, Volume 06, Issue 10, p27. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-past-issues/195241

China Rehearsing Possible Taiwan Decapitation Operation

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Taipei Taiwan Presidential Office Building

“In the past, the PLA had created a Presidential Office Building replica in another location. However, he said this mockup covered much of the Bo’ai Special Zone and appears to be an aerial bombing and gunnery training range.”

China is expanding its capability to train for a decapitation operation against Taiwan. On 26 March, Joseph Wen, a Taiwanese defense analyst, posted satellite images of a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) training ground in southwest Inner Mongolia. The images appear to show a mockup of the Bo’ai Special Zone, a restricted area that houses key government buildings, including the Presidential Office Building in Taipei. The first excerpted article, taken from the popular Taiwan English news source Taiwan News, highlights some of the concerns and speculation resulting from the images. For example, it explains that while this is not the first time the PLA has created a replica of Taiwan’s Presidential Office Building, this mockup is different in that it “covered much of the Bo’ai Special Zone and appears to be an aerial bombing and gunnery training range,” which indicates where China is likely to be focused. Lu Te-yun, a satellite imagery expert, explains that “visually speaking, the degree of realism in comparison with the actual location is quite high.” However, some experts, such as a former Kuomintang legislator cited in the article, believe the PLA would be unable to swiftly launch a decapitation strike. Instead, he believes, the exercise is more likely part of psychological and cognitive warfare effort to pressure Taiwan into believing that it must negotiate.[i] As seen in the second excerpted article, taken from an editorial published in Taiwan’s English-language newspaper Taipei Times, the PLA has repeatedly held other military exercises at its Zhurihe Training Base,[ii] also located in Inner Mongolia, during which they used a scale replica of the Presidential Office Building to simulate a decapitation strike. Published one month after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the article explains that the media had been predicting a potential “decapitation strike” from Moscow. The author, Yao Chung-yuan, former deputy director of the Taiwan Ministry of National defense strategic planning department goes on to stress the importance of Taiwan preparing for such an event. Today, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict drags on with no victory in sight for Moscow, China could be placing more urgency into honing its own capabilities to prevent a protracted conflict should it one day invade Taiwan.

Sources:

Keoni Everington, “China Creates Taipei Mockup to Train for Invasion,” Taiwan News (popular online English-language news source in Taiwan), 28 March 2024. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5131830

Joseph Wen …posted satellite images of a mockup of the Bo’ai Special Zone (博愛特區), which is a restricted zone in Taipei’s Zhongzheng District where the Presidential Office Building and other key government buildings are situated. The training ground is located in the Alxa Left Banner administrative division of Alxa League in the southwest of China’s Inner Mongolia.

Wen said in the past, the PLA had created a Presidential Office Building replica in another location. However, he said this mockup covered much of the Bo’ai Special Zone and appears to be an aerial bombing and gunnery training range.

Lu Te-yun (盧德允), a satellite imagery expert who once served as an inspector for the Ministry of National Defense (MND) told UDN that the proportions of the training grounds need to be measured. However, Lu said that “visually speaking, the degree of realism in comparison with the actual location is quite high.”

On the TVBS program “Situation Room” on Wednesday, former Kuomintang (KMT) Legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁方) said that given Taiwan’s extensive air defenses, it is unlikely that the PLA could swiftly launch a decapitation strike on Taipei. Lin said, “This is psychological and cognitive warfare. China will not relax and will continue to put pressure on Taiwan, telling Taiwan that it can negotiate or fight, simultaneously employing a dual strategy of negotiation and confrontation.”

Yao Chung-yuan, “Prepare for ‘Decapitation’ Attempts,” Taipei Times (Taiwan’s English-language daily newspaper), 28 March 2022. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2022/03/28/2003775565

At the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the media predicted a potential “decapitation strike” from Moscow. An in-depth discussion of the issue seems necessary in Taiwan.

There are many ways of launching a decapitation strike, which seeks to assassinate a national leader. ….

Despite Russia’s failure to kill Zelenskiy, Ukraine must remain extremely vigilant.

“Decapitation” is a military term for the use of ballistic and precision-guided missiles to assassinate a national leader or destroy a presidential office, to demoralize and severely weaken an enemy.

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has repeatedly held military exercises at its Zhurihe Training Base in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, during which it used a scale replica of the Presidential Office Building in Taipei to simulate a decapitation strike…

The purpose of Russia’s supposed decapitation attempts was to hijack Zelenskiy, not assassinate him, but as tension mounts during a continued war, whether Russia attempts other decapitation methods is a possibility. In Taiwan’s 2020 Han Kuang exercises, the military simulated strikes against PLA and Chinese secret agents targeting the Presidential Office Building and other central government agencies in Taipei’s Boai Special Zone (博愛特區), while training for countermeasures against the CCP’s hijacking of the Taiwanese president. From the situation in the Russia-Ukraine war, the scenario set in the Han Kuang military drill is not impossible.

Notes:

[i] For more on this, see: Cindy Hurst, “Chinese Cognitive Operations Might Impact Taiwan’s Will to Resist,” OE Watch, 09-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/chinese-cognitive-operations-might-impact-taiwans-will-to-resist/

[ii] Zhurihe is the PLA’s largest military training base. For more information, see: Chen Zhuo, “8 Things to Know About China’s Biggest Army Training Base,” South China Morning Post and reposted to China Military, 13 May 2019. http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/CHINA_209163/Features_209191/9501757.html

Image Information:

Image: Taipei Taiwan Presidential Office Building
Source: CEphoto, Uwe Aranas, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Taipei_Taiwan_Presidential-Office-Building-01a.jpg
Attribution:

The Philippines Plans Purchase of First Submarines To Counter China

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China’s maritime claim (red), compared to other countries. The Philippines has recently expressed interest in procuring submarines to protect itself against Chinese maritime aggression.

“China is willing to resolve differences with the Philippines through bilateral dialogue and consultation, but if the Philippines insists on going its own way, China will resolutely counterattack.”

The Philippines recently announced its plans to acquire submarines. According to Japan-based weekly news magazine, Nikkei Asia, the plan is the third part of a three-phase military modernization strategy and indicates the Philippines is “taking a more assertive approach to defending its interests beyond its borders.” The first and second phases were focused on bolstering the Philippines’ “land-centric” assets.[i] It is unknown where the Philippines will acquire its submarines but, according to the first article, “Spain, South Korea and Italy have shown an interest in supplying it with submarines.”

While the exact number of submarines the Philippines plans to purchase is unknown, the second excerpted article, published in the pro-independence, Taiwan newspaper, Liberty Times, suggests that one submarine is not enough. Ian Story, a senior researcher from ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore argues that the Philippines should purchase three so that one can be operational while another is in training and the last one undergoing maintenance. He also estimates that it could take more than 10 years to acquire and integrate submarines into Philippines’ military capabilities. While other experts agreed with three submarines being an ideal number to start, Joshua Bernard Espeña, vice president of the Philippine think tank International Development and Security Cooperation argued that two to three submarines would not be enough to deter China because China’s southern theater could deploy more than 30 diesel-electric submarines in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, in response to these plans, Chinese state-controlled Xinhuanet went on the offensive, saying that while buying a submarine was the Philippines’ own business, China will not tolerate anything that infringes on its sovereignty “and undermines regional peace and stability.” According to Chinese Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Colonel Wu Qian, the Philippines has already “betrayed its trust, colluded with major powers outside the region, and continued to engage in malicious activities in the South China Sea.” He went on to warn that China will counterattack if the Philippines “insists on going its own way.” However, he did not offer any specifics as to steps China might take.

Sources:

Ramon Royandoyan, “Philippines ‘Breaking From Its Shell’ With Submarine Purchase,” Nikkei Asia (major Japan-based English-language weekly news magazine), 2 February 2024. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/Philippines-breaking-from-its-shell-with-submarine-purchase

The Philippines’ plan to buy its first submarine marks a step toward the Southeast Asian nation taking a more assertive approach to defending its interests beyond its borders, analysts say.

On Thursday, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. approved the planned submarine purchase, which is included in the third phase of the military’s modernization strategy….The first and second phases of the military modernization plan focused on bolstering “land-centric” defense assets. Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr. said acquisitions under the third phase will focus on stepping up capabilities in domain awareness, intelligence and deterrence in maritime and aerial spaces.

The moves will prepare the Philippines “for future warfare of multi-domain attacks,” (Chester) Cabalza (founder of International Development and Security Cooperation, a think tank in Manila) added. In December, Manila installed Japan-made radar at an airbase some 300 kilometers from the Scarborough Shoal, the site of recent incidents involving China.

Friction between Beijing and Manila has escalated in recent months, as the Philippines Coast Guard accused a Chinese ship of using water cannons and deliberately ramming maritime vessels to disrupt the Philippines’ resupply missions to its outpost within the disputed waters.

The Philippine Navy on Thursday said France, Spain, South Korea and Italy have shown interest in supplying it with submarines.

Sun Yuqing, “菲律賓擬採購潛艦 專家：至少需要3艘才能嚇阻中國 (The Philippines Plans to Purchase Submarines. Experts: At Least Three Submarines Needed to Deter China,” Ziyou Shibao (also known as Liberty Times, a highly influential, pro-independence, Taiwan newspaper), 19 February 2024. https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/4583036

The report pointed out that in recent months, tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea have intensified, with military and police officers from both sides having numerous confrontations, and both sides later accusing the other of inciting conflicts. This prompted the Philippine government to decide to promote the modernization of the military. One of the measures is to purchase submarines.

Roy Trinidad, spokesman for the Philippine Navy’s West Philippine Sea Affairs, did not disclose how many submarines Manila plans to purchase, but he said “it will definitely be more than one.”

Ian Story, a senior researcher at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute) in Singapore Storey said that if one submarine is to be put into service at any time, Manila will need to purchase at least three. He explained that “3 is a magic number” that applies to all types of military equipment, one is operating, one is training, and one is being modified or maintained. For example, Vietnam has 6 submarines, which ensures that at least 2 are operational at any time.

However, since Manila has never operated a submarine, the process of acquiring and integrating the submarines will take at least 10 years, including the construction of infrastructure such as bases, docks, dry docks, and other support services. He added that if the Philippines orders two to three submarines, they will not be able to operate effectively until at least the mid-2030s.

However, Joshua Bernard Espeña, vice president of the Philippine think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, believes that 2 to 3 submarines are not enough to deter China, because China’s southern theater may deploy more than 30 diesel-electric submarines in the South China Sea. Power submarine.

“马科斯批准军队建设计划，包括购买菲律宾第一艘潜艇 (Marcos approves military construction plan, including purchase of Philippines’ first submarine),” Xinhuanet (Chinese state-controlled newspaper), 2 February 2024. http://www.news.cn/mil/2024-02/02/c_1212332825.htm

According to previous media reports, the Chief of Staff of the Philippine Armed Forces recently stated that the Philippines plans to develop islands and reefs in the South China Sea and purchase more ships and radars. Some analysts believe that the Philippines also intends to build outposts in the South China Sea.

In this regard, Colonel Wu Qian, spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, said on January 25 that whether or not to buy a ship is the Philippines’ own business, but China will never allow anything that infringes on China’s sovereignty and security and undermines regional peace and stability.Wu Qian said that China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands and their adjacent waters, which has sufficient historical and legal basis. China firmly opposes any form of construction activities carried out by the Philippines on the illegally occupied islands and reefs of China’s Nansha Islands. The current difficulties facing China-Philippines relations lie in the fact that the Philippines has betrayed its trust, colluded with major powers outside the region, and continued to engage in malicious activities in the South China Sea. Infringement and provocation harm China’s legitimate rights and interests. We ask the Philippines to respect history, recognize reality, and not go down the wrong path. Wu to resolve differences with the Philippines through bilateral dialogue and consultation, but if the Philippines insists on going its own way, China will resolutely counterattack.

Notes:

[i] The country’s plan to introduce submarines to its defense forces, comes in the wake of escalating tensions between Beijing and Manila with the Philippine Coast Guard accusing a Chinese ship of “using water cannons and deliberately ramming maritime vessels” on resupply missions to Philippine outposts within the disputed waters. Over the past months, China has been putting mounting pressure on the Philippines in the South China Sea. In one example of aggression in the South China Sea, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel used a water cannon to redirect an unarmed Philippines Navy supply ship near the Second Thomas Shoal. Despite an international court saying both the shoal and surrounding waters belong to the Philippines, China claims it all owns the area. For more information, see: Carla Freeman et al, “China, Philippines Tensions Risk Wider Conflict that Could Draw in the U.S., United States Institute of Peace, 10 August 2023. https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/08/china-philippines-tensions-risk-wider-conflict-could-draw-us. See also Dodge Billingsley, “China And Philippines Spar Over Grounded Ship In Spratly Islands,” OE Watch, 08-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/china-and-philippines-spar-over-grounded-ship-in-spratly-islands/

Image Information:

Image: China’s maritime claim (red), compared to other countries. The Philippines has recently expressed interest in procuring submarines to protect itself against Chinese maritime aggression.
Source: Goran Tek-en, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:South_China_Sea_vector.svg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0

China Increases Presence in East China Sea To Change Status Quo

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The East China Sea. The pink line represents the both the regular Chinese ADIZ and the ECS ADIZ.

“We can only move forward, not backward. We will never let even 1 millimeter of our territory taken.” -Xi Jinping

China is reportedly deploying multiple warships near the borders of its East China Sea (ECS) air defense identification zone (ADIZ) for at least the next year.[i] The action by the PLA Navy raises concern for nearby Japan. According to the first article excerpt published in one of Japan’s leading newspapers, Yomiuri Shimbun, Japanese sources have observed a Jiangkai II-class [RG1] guided missile frigate and a highly capable air defense missile destroyer in the ECS.[ii] Japan is concerned by China’s operational posture within its unilaterally established ECS ADIZ. As the article explains, instead of allowing freedom of navigation in international airspace recognized in international law, China is operating as if its ECS zone falls under their jurisdiction, often warning foreign aircraft within the ADIZ that it will take “defensive emergency measures” if they do not leave immediately.

Concern surrounding the ECS ADIZ is not new. This zone differs from others as it intentionally overlaps portions of ADIZs maintained by Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.[iii] The overlapping zones could create potential flashpoints, especially in areas in which disputed territories are involved. For example, both ADIZs maintained by China and Japan overlap the highly disputed, Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands, located adjacent to Taiwan. According to the second article excerpt, published through Tokyo-based nonprofit news agency Kyodo News, China’s Coast Guard drafted a plan to maintain its presence around the Senkakus, (also known as Diaoyu in China) throughout 2024. This decision came after Chinese President Xi Jinping pointed out the need for China to “constantly strengthen” its efforts to safeguard the sovereignty of the islands. The last excerpted article, also published in Yomiuri Shimbun, points out that China is strengthening its anti-access/area denial strategy while also exerting military pressure on Taiwan.[iv] The article describes China having four ships deployed around the clock, working closely with fighters, and increasing military activities. It adds that China will likely aim to block U.S. and Japan Self Defense Forces aircraft from entering the airspace in the event of a conflict over Taiwan. Meanwhile, an expert cited in the article points out that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could include a concurrent “Senkaku contingency” because China claims the Senkakus are part of Taiwan.

Sources:

“China Deploys Multiple Warships Around Self-Claimed ADIZ,” Yomiuri Shimbun (one of Japan’s five major newspapers), 28 January 2024. https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/defense-security/20240128-165250/
China is deploying multiple warships around the clock in waters near the borders of the air defense identification zone that it has unilaterally established, The Yomiuri Shimbun has learned.

China is operating the zone on the premise that it is Chinese airspace. Aircraft that fly within its ADIZ are told to immediately leave.
Contrary to international custom, China unilaterally demands that aircraft flying in the zone follow Chinese authorities’ instructions. It also claims it will take “defensive emergency measures” if an aircraft fails to do so.

China started deploying at least three navy warships around the clock in waters around its claimed ADIZ, according to Japanese government sources. The three include an air defense missile destroyer, which is the Chinese version of an Aegis-equipped destroyer, and a frigate warship. Equipped with high-performance radar, air defense missile destroyers are highly capable of shooting down aircraft. The Chinese military aircraft repeatedly scramble in response to SDF aircraft, according to the sources. The Chinese military is believed to be strengthening its monitoring of SDF and U.S. military aircraft and warships in the East China Sea.

China’s monitoring capabilities were initially believed to be low, and it was thought that its establishment of the ADIZ would have no substantial impact. However, some observers are warning that China will have its warships, which are deployed around the clock, and fighters work together and increase its military activities. “It’s intended to block the SDF and U.S. military aircraft [from entering the airspace] in the event of contingencies in the Taiwan Strait,” said an SDF source.

“China Plans To Keep Ships Near Senkakus 365 Days in 2024,” Kyodo News (Tokyo-based non-profit news agency), 30 December 2024. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2023/12/eb55266c4a9f-china-plans-to-keep-ships-near-senkakus-365-days-in-2024.html?phrase=Senkaku&words=Senkakus,Senkaku

 China plans to keep its ships near the Japan-controlled Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea for 365 days in 2024 as leader Xi Jinping has called for bolstering Beijing’s sovereignty claim over the islets, sources familiar with the matter said Saturday.

During a rare visit by Xi on Nov. 29 to the command office for the East China Sea area of the China Coast Guard in Shanghai, the president pointed out the need for Beijing to “constantly strengthen” its efforts to safeguard the sovereignty of the islands, which China calls
Diaoyu, the sources said.

Xi, who also heads the Central Military Commission, the highest national defense organization, commented on a bilateral row over the Senkaku Islands, saying, “We can only move forward, not backward. We will never let even 1 millimeter of our territory taken,” the sources added.

“4 Chinese Warships Deployed Around Taiwan, Sources Say; Believe Ships Will Collaborate with Other Warships in East China Sea,” Yomiuri Shimbun (one of Japan’s five major newspapers), 30 January 2024. https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/defense-security/20240130-165702/

China is believed to be using the ships to exert military pressure on Taiwan. If China and Taiwan enter an armed conflict with each other, an envisaged situation known as a Taiwan contingency, China likely will aim to block U.S. and other forces by using the ships in conjunction with other warships nearby. These warships are continually being deployed near the border of China’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), which China has unilaterally declared over an area of the East China Sea.

China is strengthening its anti-access/ area denial (A2/AD) strategy, which restricts the military activities of other countries in its vicinity. The strategy aims to prevent U.S. forces from entering the first island chain that connects the Nansei Islands and the Philippines. The Chinese warships deployed near the ADIZ and around Taiwan are said to be almost in line with the island chain.“There’s a good chance that China will use force to make a move on the Senkakus in the future if Japan lets its guard down,” former Self-Defense Fleet Commander in Chief Yoji Koda said. “Japan needs to be fully prepared.”

Notes:

[i] A buffer zone set up by a country outside its sovereign airspace is intended to help prevent incursions. China’s zones can be broken down into the “China ADIZ” and the “ECS ADIZ,” the latter of which is contested. For more information on China’s ECS Air Defense Identification Zone, see: “East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zones: A Primer,” Center for International Maritime Security, 10 November 2022. https://cimsec.org/east-china-sea-air-defense-identification-zones-a-primer/

[ii] While the article does not identify the exact destroyer type, it refers to it as “The Chinese version of an Aegis-equipped destroyer,” which is likely the Type 052D. The Type 052D, is equipped with an advanced active electronically scanned array radar system and a 64-cell missile vertical launch system capable of firing surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles. Liu Xuanzun, “China Launches Two New Type 052D Destroyers: Media,” Global Times, 12 March 2023. globaltimes.cn/page/202303/1287149.shtml  

[iii] Japan established its ADIZ in 1969, while the United States established Taiwan’s after WWII and South Korea’s during the Korean War. Ibid.

[iv] For additional information on China’s position regarding Taiwan, see: Dodge Billingsley, “Chinese Officials Justify Reaction to Western In Taiwan Strait,” OE Watch, 07-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/chinese-officials-justify-reaction-to-western-presence-in-taiwan-strait-2/

Image Information:

Image: The East China Sea. The pink line represents the both the regular Chinese ADIZ and the ECS ADIZ.
Source: Maximilian Dörrbecker (Chumwa), https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Defense_Identification_Zone_(East_China_Sea)#/media/File:JADIZ_and_CADIZ_and_KADIZ_in_East_China_Sea.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 2.0


Chinese Strategists Consider Weaponizing “Complexity Science”

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“The network information system … can be damaged or controlled by destroying key nodes in the network information system, creating a destruction ‘multiplier’ effect of ‘100-1=0.’”

The complexity of warfare increases as new capabilities, such as unmanned aircraft, loitering munitions, cyber warfare, and others, are introduced. As complexity increases, so do the risks, prompting Chinese military thinkers to explore the possibilities of using “complexity science,” the study of complex systems, to their advantage. The first excerpted article, published by the People’s Liberation Army’s official newspaper, PLA Daily, and reposted to the Ministry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of China’s website, underscores the importance of understanding basic science versus the concept of “complexity science.”  A traditional, cause-and-effect system assumes a linear outcome, which is predictable. However, as the article points out, in a complex system, the topic of study of “complexity science,” one slight change could have a huge impact on the course or outcome of the war.[i]

Complexity science is important in both defensive and offensive operations. For example, offensively, the article explains that destroying a key node of an opponent’s network information system, the glue that holds together the joint operations system, can serve as a force multiplier. In defensive operations, to protect their own systems, PLA commanders need to completely understand the emerging nature of complex war systems so that they can predict or anticipate where the adversary might attempt to degrade their systems. In offensive operations, on the other hand, they should use their insight to shape the war and create winning opportunities for themselves. The article explains that coming up with countermeasures and improving the ability to predict emerging technology can be facilitated through modeling and simulation. It also suggests taking advantage of the unpredictable and “fighting opportunities” in combat “to catch the opponent off guard with thunderous momentum.” The second article, published by China’s top military decision-making command body, the Central Military Commission’s authorized news source, China Military Online, details “complexity” in command-and-control (C2) systems. It explains that complexity science offers a new way to understand, guide, and practice war. It also recommends using complexity, around C2, as a weapon to complicate the opponent’s decision-making capacity, while also facilitating one’s own abilities. The key to accomplishing this is by breaking the traditional decision-making methods and reshaping those of the opponent. Humans, becoming increasingly intertwined with machines in the decision-making process at all levels, will create “unprecedentedly prominent battlefield management issues,” the article argues. As variables become more complex it is easier to reshape the opponent’s decision-making process by limiting the adversary’s intelligence capabilities, impairing their reflexes, creating confusion at the intersection, and pushing the opponent to their breaking point.

Sources:

Liu Haiye et al, “认真研究并加以把握运用，战争复杂系统的涌现性 (Carefully Study and Understand the Emergence of Complex War Systems),” PLA Daily (official news source of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army), 17 November 2023. http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/16267413.html.

Informatization and intelligentization in the network information system is the “glue” and “catalyst” of the joint operations system. However, it does not always guarantee the network’s effectiveness in driving the entire joint combat system. The network information system not only can serve as a “multiplier” of “1+1>2”in aggregating combat forces that are widely distributed and have heterogeneous functional role, it can be damaged or controlled by destroying key nodes in the network information system, creating a destruction “multiplier” effect of “100-1=0”.

Make good use of the emergent nature of complex war systems: …In recent years, the continued advances in modeling and simulation, artificial intelligence, big data and other technologies, has provided new support for commanders to grasp the emergent nature of complex war systems. If commanders can fully grasp the emergent nature of complex war systems, they might be able to perceive, foresee, utilize or even create “points” where war emerges before their opponents do, thereby becoming more proactive in shaping the war situation and creating winning opportunities.

Gain insights in advance and implement changes before the enemy. Once the emergence of complex war systems occurs, it could cause major global or local changes in the entire battlefield. “Forewarned is forearmed, without prejudging the waste”. Only by sensing and anticipating the possible emergence of key nodes in the war system and key turning points in the combat process before the opponent does, can we implement changes before the enemy and disrupt their operations…(we should) implement various countermeasures for war preparations, and improve the pertinence and predictability of military training and preparations…Methods such as modeling and simulation, which can provide insights into the emergence of complex war systems, should be actively applied to build, restore, and simulate real combat environments and operations in virtual war spaces.

Hu Xiaofeng, “从复杂性科学看指挥控制领域变革趋势 (A Look at Changing Trends in Command and Control From the Perspective of Complexity Science),” China Military Online (news source authorized by the Central Military Commission and sponsored by the People’s Liberation Army), 2 January 2024. http://www.81.cn/ll_208543/16277640.html

Complexity science has provided new possibilities for understanding war and guiding war practice. In the field of command and control, complexity can be used as a weapon to make the opponent’s decision-making more complicated, while oneself can easily deal with it. The key to achieving this effect is to break the original traditional decision-making method and reshape the opponent’s decision-making process.

How to create complexity

In future wars, as the combat system becomes larger and larger, humans and machines become more intertwined in decision-making at all levels, especially the widespread use of intelligent combat platforms, resulting in unprecedentedly prominent battlefield management issues.

Traditional decision-making only changes the decision-making parameters, not the decision-making process, so the decision-making complexity is constant… If complexity methods are introduced, the opponent’s decision-making process can be reshaped, forcing the opponent to introduce new parameters, leading to an increase in decision-making complexity. For example, if one’s own camouflage effect exceeds the opponent’s existing reconnaissance capabilities, it forces it to find new reconnaissance and positioning methods, thereby prompting it to change its decision-making process and make decision-making more complex. So, how to create complexity? It is generally believed that there are mainly the following four methods.

Limit intelligence capabilities. By creating uncertainty to enhance complexity and reduce the adversary’s situational awareness, the adversary can only act with the support of limited information…

Impaired reflexes. Create complexity by leveraging adaptive characteristics to weaken adversaries’ operational responsiveness…

Create confusion at the intersection. Creating chaos and complexity by crossing boundaries to create new emergent effects… Facilitate tipping point transitions. Push your opponent to the breaking point and create complexity, resulting in non-linear transitions…

Notes:

[i] The first article uses an old the British proverb as an example. “For want of a nail, the shoe was lost. For want of a shoe, the horse was lost. For want of a horse, the rider was lost. For want of a rider, the battle was lost. For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost. And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.” This analogy underscores the importance of each node, down to the most basic one (the nail). For more on this proverb, see “A Little Neglect May Breed Great Mischief,” Citadel website, accessed 20 January 2024. https://web.citadel.edu/root/images/commandant/assistant-commandant-leadership/for-the-want-of-a-nail.pdf

China Celebrates New Turbofan Engine Design as Giving It a Strategic Advantage

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China’s WZ-7 (“Soaring Dragon”) is a high-altitude, long-endurance drone, shown here
on display during the 2022 Zhuhai Airshow.

“With its inherent advantages of having a world-leading industrial system and strong production capacity, China already has an absolute advantage in the Sino-US arms race around UAVs, loitering munitions, and cruise missiles.”

China claims its new turbofan could give it an edge during a high-intensity war. According to the first article posted on the publicly owned Chinese Internet platform Tencent, the Institute of Engineering Thermophysics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has developed a new-generation, low-cost, easy-to-manufacture turbofan engine, which can be used in high-speed, long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and missiles. A turbofan engine, first conceptualized in the 1930s is also known as a fanjet, is a modern variant of the gas turbine engine.

What makes the recent Chinese version unique is that it has a significantly reduced number of parts. According to the second article, published by leading Chinese Internet and gaming provider NetEase, there are only two stages, a fan stage and a high-pressure compressor stage. In contrast, according to the article, the U.S. Global Hawk’s turbofan engine has 13 additional stages. This less complex structure makes it 20 to 30 percent lighter and less expensive to manufacture than other turbofans. The first article argues that these simpler turbofan engines will allow China to produce them faster and increase “the operational efficiency of frontline combat forces.” For example, the People’s Liberation Army will be able to turn to private enterprise with lower technical capabilities than specialized military industrial complex to manufacture the new variant. Noting lessons learned from the Ukraine conflict, the article argues that “the side able to dominate the battlefield is often not the Ukrainian military with its advanced NATO equipment, but the Russian military, which can steadily supply less advanced equipment to the frontlines.” The article also notes that by leveraging its cost and production capacity to provide a continuous supply of units to power its weapons, China can ensure that “when a conflict does break out between [it] and the United States,” the U.S. military will not be able to “engage in a high-intensity war of attrition.”

Sources:

Jiang Fuwei, “中美无人机军备竞赛,中国抢先立于不败之地,可以让美军更清醒 (In Sino-U.S. UAV Arms Race, China’s Advanced, Invincible Position Can Make the U.S. Military Sober Up),” Tencent (a major Chinese platform company that connects users, businesses, and industries with technology and innovation, 1 November 2023. https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20231101A03WF100

“Zhu Junqiang, director of the Institute of Engineering Thermophysics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that they have developed a new-generation low-cost turbofan engine, and this new engine has been used in a certain type of high-speed, long-endurance UAV.

This type of turbofan engine reportedly adopts a very unusual single-shaft high-pressure direct-drive configuration, which integrates the compressor and fan that must be arranged separately in conventional twin-shaft engines, reducing the number of engine parts by more than 60 percent. This reduces the overall weight and size of this type of engine by 20 to 30 percent compared to conventional twin-shaft configuration engines with the same thrust, and it also reduces fuel consumption by 10 percent.

In other words, the emergence of this type of engine not only signifies that the performance of domestic UAVs, loitering munitions, and even cruise missiles using turbofan engines will be significantly improved, but also that the manufacturing costs of these types of equipment will be further reduced to what can be called a “formidable” level. With its inherent advantages of having a world-leading industrial system and strong production capacity, China already has an absolute advantage in the Sino-US arms race around UAVs, loitering munitions, and cruise missiles…

Once China can produce a new turbofan engine, which costs only 20 percent of that of the existing turbofan engine, even if [the engine] currently can only be used in weapons such as UAVs and cruise missiles, significantly reducing the overall cost can increase the output and equipment quantity of these weapons systems, thereby increasing the operational efficiency of frontline combat forces…

Due to the significant reduction in the number of parts, the degree of difficulty in producing this type of engine is greatly reduced…

Looking at the experience of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the side able to dominate the battlefield is often not the Ukrainian military with its advanced NATO equipment, but the Russian military, which can steadily supply less advanced equipment to the frontlines.

At this point, once the PLA can leverage these advantages in cost and production capacity, it can establish strong anti-loss capabilities and continuous supply capabilities for weapons such as UAVs and cruise missiles.

So, when a conflict does break out between China and the United States, the US military in the Western Pacific will not have the ability to engage in a high-intensity war of attrition with the PLA….

Jianduan Fangu, “我国研制成功高空低油耗涡扇发动机,战略无人机将傲视全球 (My Country Has Developed a Successful High-Altitude, Low-Fuel-Consumption Turbofan Engine and Will Dominate the World of Strategic Drones),” NetEase, (A leading Chinese Internet and gaming provider centered around premium content.), 26 October 2023. https://www.163.com/dy/article/IHVD86H205565PRU.html

The Institute of Engineering Thermophysics of the Chinese Academy of Science developed a high-performance, high-altitude, low-fuel-consumption turbofan engine, with greatly improved technology… First, the Institute of Engineering Thermophysics’ high-altitude, low-fuel-consumption turbofan engine has greatly simplified the engine structure. There is only one stage for the fan and one stage for the high-pressure compressor. The first stage uses a diagonal flow compressor, and the second stage uses a centrifugal compressor. The pressure ratio of each stage is very high, which significantly reduces the number of compressor stages. Comparing it to the Global Hawk’s engine, there are 13 fewer stages, which greatly reduces the number of parts. This reduces the complexity of the engine, which reduces fuel consumption and makes it cheaper.

Image Information:

Image: China’s WZ-7 [R1] (“Soaring Dragon”) is a high-altitude, long-endurance drone, shown here on display during the 2022 Zhuhai Airshow.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:WZ-7_at_Airshow_China_Zhuhai_2022.jpg
Attribution: CCA-Share Alike 4.0 Int