Category Archives: OE Watch

India Successfully Tests Agni-V Ballistic Missile Upgrade

Posted on by

Agni-V ICBM Range Envelope centered at Integrated Test Range, Odissa. Declared range of 5500 km in pale indigo and estimated expanded range of 7000+ km in faded circumference.

“The opacity surrounding this MIRV missile is about the number of warheads it can carry, which in all likelihood would remain classified.”

India’s ability to carry out a strategic or tactical nuclear strike has been limited compared to that of its adversary, China. However, in recent years, India has made efforts to match Chinese capabilities. In early March 2024, India announced the successful test of a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) for its Agni-V ballistic missile, further strengthening India’s nuclear strike capabilities even as it maintains a “no first use” policy.[i] The accompanying excerpted article from the conservative-leaning English-language newspaper The Hindu, reports on the recent MIRV test for the Agni-V and considers what it means for India. The article suggests that with a MIRV capable 3100 mile range Agni-V missile, India has now achieved more balance in its nuclear deterrence capability with China. The article acknowledges that some of its specific capabilities remain unknown, critical being how many warheads it can carry (the authors speculate that it carries three) and whether it can carry decoys. Finally, the article mentions that India’s defense industry will test a long-range submarine-launched ballistic missile, likely the latest variant of the K-series, at some point in the future.[ii] Altogether, the successful MIRV test for the Agni-V, and future testing for its submarine-launched ballistic missile, indicate that India will continue to seek nuclear parity with China.

OE Insight Summary:

In March 2024 IND successfully tested a MIRV, with a reported three-warhead capacity, for its Agni-V ICBM as part of a long-term deterrence effort to match CHN strategic nuclear strike capabilities.

Sources:

Harsh V. Pant and Kartik Bommakanti, “The MIRV leap that fires up India’s nuclear deterrence,” The Hindu (privately owned, conservative-leaning English-language newspaper in India), 19 March 2024. https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-mirv-leap-that-fires-up-indias-nuclear-deterrence/article67965762.ece

The Agni-5 ballistic missile test dubbed the “Divyastra”, that was conducted by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), is strategically consequential. With a range of over 5,000 kilometres, the Agni-5 is the longest-range missile India has tested so far. But it is not simply its range but, equally, its potency which represents a watershed moment for India’s nuclear deterrent. The potency of India’s nuclear deterrent is enhanced because this variant is integrated with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs)…

Though MIRV technology is not new, it is to India…MIRV-tipped missiles are a necessity simply because they strike multiple targets simultaneously and help evade ballistic missiles defences. China is building ballistic missile defences such as the Hongqi (HQ-19) ground-based ballistic missile interceptors, which have been tested, but their capacity to intercept Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMS) such as the Agni-5 is still suspect…

Now that India has integrated the Agni-5 with multiple warheads, greater balance has been restored in the Sino-Indian nuclear deterrent relationship. To be sure, more testing of the MIRV-capable Agni-5 will be required…

The opacity surrounding this MIRV missile is about the number of warheads it can carry, which in all likelihood would remain classified. Going by speculation, it is improbable that it can carry more than three warheads. Further, the yield of the nuclear warheads is likely to be limited due to the small number of atomic tests India has conducted. In addition, it is unclear whether the Agni-5 can carry decoys and chaff, especially during the boost and intermediate phase of the missile’s flight. Agni-5 will in all probability be launched from a road mobile platform.This is a China-specific missile. There could be more to come from the DRDO and AEC with India adding more punch to its nuclear arsenal when it tests a long-range Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM), which India’s nuclear ballistic missile submarines can launch. The Agni-5 with MIRV capability bolsters India’s nuclear capabilities vis-à-vis China. It puts China on notice — that India is preparing itself to counter the advances Beijing has made with its missile and missile defence programmes…

Notes:

[i] India adopted its “no first use” policy shortly after its first successful nuclear test in the late 1990s. In August 2019, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh mentioned that India’s policy might change depending on the circumstances, but India continues to have a no first use policy when it comes to its nuclear arsenal.

[ii] In November 2018, Indian officials announced the country had joined the ranks of nuclear triad governments when the INS Arihant, a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, carried out its first deterrence deployment that month. While India reportedly only maintains the triad when one of its ballistic missile submarines are deployed, the 2018 deployment demonstrated India’s long-term goals of nuclear deterrence. For background, see: Matthew Stein, “Is India’s Nuclear Triad Complete?,” OE Watch, January 2019. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-singular-format/296884

Image Information:

Image: Agni-V ICBM Range Envelope centered at Integrated Test Range, Odissa. Declared range of 5500 km in pale indigo and estimated expanded range of 7000+ km in faded
circumference.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Agni-V_ICBM_Range_Envelope_
centered_at_Integrated_Test_Range,_Odissa.jpg;
Attribution: CCA 4.0

Ecuador’s Raid on Mexican Embassy Fractures Regional Comity

Posted on by

EcuadorianPresident Daniel Noboa has sought to project an image of being tough on crime and impunity. He has come under fire for authorizing the raid of Mexico’s embassy in the country.

“Glas was to receive safe passage from the Ecuadorian authorities allowing him to fly to Mexico City, but instead, Noboa ordered his immediate capture.”

Tensions between Ecuador and Mexico have been simmering since Mexican President Obrador questioned the legitimacy of Ecuadorian President Noboa’s election victory in October 2023. A short time later, in December 2023, Ecuador’s former Vice President, Jorge Glas, thrice convicted of corruption, exiled himself to Mexico’s embassy in Quito to avoid another prosecution.[i] According to the excerpted article in the Spanish daily El País, President Noboa gave the order to raid Mexico’s embassy and detain Glas. The trigger for the action appears to have been President Obrador’s decision to grant Glas political asylum, which the Noboa government argues would have served the cause of impunity. In response, as the article from El País reports, Mexico accused Ecuador of contravening the Vienna Convention and broke diplomatic relations. The regional outcry was swift, according to the second excerpted article from the Argentine daily Clarín. Nicaragua immediately broke relations with Ecuador, while other countries expressed grave concerns, rebuked Ecuador’s actions and threatened to rupture their own bilateral relations. At the center of the debate appears to be the interpretation of the inviolability of embassies in the Vienna Convention and the need to balance with the Caracas Convention, which states that political asylum cannot be abused by those already convicted in competent domestic courts. The nature of the Noboa government’s raid on Mexico’s embassy and the uproar of condemnation has impacted the entire region. Latin America has fractured along familiar political lines in response to the raid, with leftist governments generally taking Mexico’s side and moving to sever relations with Ecuador, and governments ruled by the right decrying Ecuador’s actions while emphasizing Mexico’s abuse of asylum procedure. Many countries have observed others’ responses as a litmus test for their own sets of bilateral relations.[ii] For Noboa’s part, domestic politics likely drove much of the decision-making, as a truncated presidential term and the country’s security crisis have led him to project an image of tough-on-crime. Glas’ connection to organized crime, and foreign criminal organizations driving some of Ecuador’s surge in violence, made the decision to seize him politically popular among Ecuadorians.

OE Insight Summary:

ECU government raid of MEX government embassy in Quito has sent regional relations spiraling and generated conversations about the appropriate use of granting political asylum.

Sources:

“México rompe relaciones con Ecuador tras el asalto policial a su Embajada en Quito (Mexico breaks relations with Ecuador after the police assault on its Embassy in Quito),” El País (Spanish daily with excellent regional coverage), 6 April 2024. https://elpais.com/mexico/2024-04-06/mexico-rompe-relaciones-con-ecuador-tras-el-asalto-policial-a-su-embajada-en-quito.html 

Mexico has broken relations with Ecuador. The measure was adopted after the Ecuadorian police attacked the Mexican Embassy in Quito with armored cars and masked agents…and forcibly took away former vice president Jorge Glas, who hours before had received political asylum from the Government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador…In the following hours, Glas was to receive safe passage from the Ecuadorian authorities allowing him to fly to Mexico City, but instead, Noboa ordered his immediate capture.

“La canciller de Ecuador afirma que México violó primero las normas diplomáticas: ‘Hubo incumplimientos y respuestas negativas’ (The Foreign Minister of Ecuador affirms that Mexico first violated diplomatic norms: ‘There were non-compliance and negative responses’),” Clarín (Argentine daily that covers most of Latin America), 8 April 2024. https://www.clarin.com/mundo/canciller-ecuador-afirma-mexico-violo-primero-normas-diplomaticas-incumplimientos-respuestas-negativas_0_ozE6HjUzaH.html  

For Mexico, Ecuador violated the Vienna Convention, which has some 115 countries, and which regulates relations between states through treaties. It is considered one of the main sources of international law and its compliance is mandatory for the states that have ratified it…In response, [Foreign Minister] Sommerfeld noted that Mexico did not respect Article 1 of the Montevideo Convention of 1933 or Article 3 of the Caracas Convention of 1954, regarding the fact that it is not lawful to grant asylum to people accused of common crimes, as was the situation of Glas in a case for alleged embezzlement of funds in the reconstruction of the province of Manabí after the 2016 earthquake.

Notes:

[i] President Noboa is grappling with a surge of gang-related violence, and Glas stands convicted of corruption, including links to transnational criminal organizations. For more information on the origins of Ecuador’s insecurity crisis, see: Ryan C. Berg, “President Lasso Calls for ‘Plan Ecuador’ Amid Growing Security Concerns,” OE Watch, December 2021. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/400849

[ii] For more information on how the international fallout could negatively impact the Noboa government, see: James Bosworth, “The Mexican Embassy Raid in Ecuador Will Backfire for Noboa,” World Politics Review, 8 April 2024. https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/ecuador-mexico-embassy-corruption/

Image Information:

Image: EcuadorianPresident Daniel Noboa has sought to project an image of being tough on crime and impunity. He has come under fire for authorizing the raid of Mexico’s embassy in the country.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/presidenciaecuador/53497882306 
Attribution: PDM 1.0 DEED.

Islamic State Resurgence Demoralizes Mozambican Soldiers

Posted on by

Mozambique army personnel are demoralized in their fight with IS-loyal fighters.

“Despite all efforts by the government to prove that the situation is returning to normal in Cabo Delgado province, terrorists continue to carry out attacks with a greater number of fighters”

Until recently, Mozambique asserted that the insurgents were retreating, and the country’s vital economic activities, including the export of natural gas from Cabo Delgado, would resume. However, the excerpted article from the Portuguese-language Evidencias.com reveals the insurgents are not just increasing in number, but also in sophistication and coordination. According to the article, more than 500 IS-loyal fighters[i] recently attacked a 40-man contingent of Mozambique’s Rapid Intervention Unit (RUI)[ii] near Quissanga—forcing its retreat to the Quirimbas islands. The article emphasized that only days before the attack on the RUI, the government claimed the IS-loyal fighters were only capable of small unit hit-and-run tactics. The article challenges government narratives about the insurgents’ impending demise. Based on interviews with Mozambican soldiers, the article describes that low morale, largely due to false information presented about the insurgency by the government, is manifest in the soldiers’ ranks. According to the article, only a true accounting of the insurgency will lead to the military receiving the support, weapons and equipment necessary to defeat the insurgents.

OE Insight Summary:

MOZ soldiers face resurgent IS-loyal fighters in Cabo Delgado and are demoralized by lack of sufficient weaponry and equipment for counter-insurgency, despite government assurances that the fighters are weakened.

Sources:

“Terroristas atacaram Quissanga com mais de 500 homens e perseguiram batalhão da UIR até Quirimbas (Terrorists attacked Quissanga with more than 500 men and pursued the UIR battalion to Quirimbas),” evidencias.com (Portuguese-language website specializing in investigative journalism on Mozambican affairs), 5 March 2024. https://evidencias.co.mz/2024/03/05/terroristas-atacaram-quissanga-com-mais-de-500-homens/

Terrorists attacked Quissanga with more than 500 men and pursued the UIR battalion to Quirimbas several after the President of the Republic, Filipe Nyusi, supported by the Minister of Defense, stated that the terrorists attack in small cells of three or four individuals and then flee.

Despite all efforts by the Government to prove that the situation is returning to normal in the province of Cabo Delgado, terrorists continue to carry out attacks with a greater number of fighters, which contradicts the discourse that has been propagated by the President and Minister of National Defense. UIR elements told Evidências that the insurgents in operations are accompanied by women (including pregnant women) and children and apparently use them as human shields…. In fact, the military has no doubt that the government has been providing false information about the real situation of terrorism in the province of Cabo Delgado.

Notes:

[i] This report about 500 total IS-loyal fighters involved in the attack near Quissanga was consistent with other major attacks by the group, including, for example, in 2020 when Voice of America (VOA) Português reported on 500 attackers in another operation in Cabo Delgado. See “Cabo Delgado: “A rede de terroristas está a ser desmantelada”, repete o chefe da polícia moçambicana,” VOA Português, July 20, 2020, https://www.voaportugues.com/a/cabo-delgado-a-rede-de-terroristas-est%C3%A1-a-ser-desmantelada-repete-o-chefe-da-pol%C3%ADcia-mo%C3%A7ambicana/5507231.html

[ii] The Unidade Intervenção Rapida (Rapid Intervention Unit, or RUI) was formed after the first IS-loyal insurgents’ attacks in 2017 and were supported by units of the national police and the national military. The RUI as intended to focus on the IS-loyal insurgents, but from the RUI’s inception it was insufficiently equipped and trained, partly because the insurgency commenced suddenly and caught the government off guard and because the government had prioritized economic development and not the military in the prior decade. As a result, the RUI suffered from low morale for years even before the resurgence of the IS-loyal fighters in 2024. See Meryl Demuynck and Gijs Weijenberg, “The Upcoming SADC Intervention: A New Way Ahead to Combat Terrorism in Mozambique?,” ICCT, July 22, 2021, https://www.icct.nl/publication/upcoming-sadc-intervention-new-way-ahead-combat-terrorism-mozambique.

Image Information:

Image: Mozambique army personnel are demoralized in their fight with IS-loyal fighters
Source: Steve Evans, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mozambique_army_personnel.jpg
Attribution: CCA 2.0

Turkey Conducts Counterterrorism Operations Against the Islamic State

Posted on by

Turkish Army vehicles in south-eastern Turkey. In light of recent regional attacks by the Islamic State, Turkey is ramping up counterterror measures in the country, especially targeting Tajiks.

“Turkish security services have carried out continuous campaigns against the [terrorist] cells and members of the organization, which resulted in the arrest of thousands, in addition to the deportation of nearly 3,000.”

Turkey’s Anti-Terrorism Division continues its offensive against the Islamic State (IS) and other groups as the government attempts to restrict Tajik nationals access after a string of international attacks. Turkey is actively attempting to disrupt the remaining cells of the IS in the country after several deadly terrorist attacks linked to the group have occurred throughout the globe. Over a week period in January 2024, IS conducted bombings in Kerman, Iran, conducted a shooting at the Santa Maria Catholic Church in Istanbul, Turkey, and finally, the group killed over 130 people during an attack at the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, Russia. According to the first excerpted article from the Saudi-owned international newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, in April 2024, the Turkish Anti-Terrorism Division personnel arrested 48 IS members in Istanbul. Thirty of those arrested were said to be connected to the Santa Maria Catholic church attack. 18 additional members were arrested in Ankara, many of whom are Tajik. The article also notes that at least two of the perpetrators of the Crocus attack in Moscow spent time in Istanbul immediately before the attack. IS fighters traveling through Turkey or using the country as a temporary place to stay is not a new phenomenon, as thousands of fighters and recruits have passed through Turkish borders since 2013. IS fighters and supporters have consistently used Turkey as a hub, despite counter-terrorism efforts. Many IS-affiliated individuals will cross the border from Syria, and Ankara’s primary countermeasure has been deportation to the country of origin with over 9,000 deported to date.[i] According to the second excerpted article from the Turkish-based news outlet TürkRus, Tajik nationals now face deportation and rescinded visa exemptions as a result of the Tajik connection to the recent terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, the Santa Maria Catholic church attack, and a planned attack in Istanbul. Tajiks in Turkey were given a deadline of 20 April 2024 to leave or be under the threat of being forcibly expelled. Although Tajikistan is a small former Soviet republic just north of Afghanistan, approximately half of IS fighters are recruited there. A combination of poverty, lack of religious freedom, and an oppressive dictatorial regime give citizens few options, which IS has capitalized on. Through primarily online recruitment methods, IS appears to have been able to appeal to many Tajik’s grievances with Russia and the West. As for Turkey, the effects of its most recent countermeasures for Tajik nationals are yet to be seen.

OE Insight Summary:

TUR’s Anti-Terrorism Division continues its offensive against the Islamic State and other groups as the government attempts to restrict access to Tajik nationals after a string of international attacks.

Sources:

Saeed Abdul Razik, “طاجيكستان دون تأشيرة تركيا توقف العشرات من «داعش» وتلغي دخول مواطني (Turkey arrests dozens of ISIS members and cancels visa-free entry of Tajik citizens),” Asharq Al-Awsat (Saudi news site), 6 April 2024. https://aawsat.com/شؤون-إقليمية/4952726-تركيا-توقف-العشرات-من-داعش-وتلغي-دخول-مواطني-طاجيكستان-دون-تأشيرة

Counter-terrorism forces in Turkey arrested 48 members of the terrorist organization ISIS, including 30 members linked to the perpetrator of the attack on the Santa Maria Catholic Church in Istanbul on January 28. 18 members of the terrorist organization were also arrested in the Turkish capital, Ankara.

Last February, a Turkish court decided to imprison 25 defendants and conditionally release 9 others who were involved in the armed attack on the Santa Maria Church in the Sariyer district of Istanbul, which was carried out by two ISIS members: the Tajikist Amerjon Khalikov and the Russian David Tandev, who were charged. They were charged with: “belonging to a terrorist organization” and “premeditated murder.” They were among 60 Russian and Tajik suspects who were arrested in connection with the attack, and 26 of them were referred to deportation centers outside the country.

The Turkish security forces arrested 147 ISIS members as part of the investigations, and 17 members of what is known as the “Khorasan Province” affiliated with ISIS were arrested after their identities were identified by Turkish intelligence and the Anti-Terrorism Division in the Istanbul Security Directorate. Confirming their connection to the armed attack on the church and planning to establish an entity to train and deploy ISIS militants in Middle Eastern countries. ISIS, which Turkey has classified as a terrorist organization since 2013 and which was responsible for or attributed to the killing of more than 300 people in attacks in Turkey between 2015 and 2017.

Turkish security services have carried out continuous campaigns against the cells and members of the organization, which resulted in the arrest of thousands of them, in addition to the deportation of nearly 3,000, and preventing the entry of more than 5,000 into the country.

“Turkey 20 Nisan’dan itibaren Tacikistanlıları deport edecek (Turkey will deport Tajikistan citizens as of April 20),” TurkRus (Turkish news site), April 7, 2024. https://www.turkrus.com/3167873-turkiye-20-nisandan-itibaren-tacikistanlilari-deport-edecek-xh.aspx

After the terrorist attack in Moscow, it was revealed that the terrorists were Tajik nationals. Turkey also recently announced that it has lifted visa liberalization for Tajikistan. Turkey announced that it had lifted visa liberalization with Tajikistan. Speaking to Sputnik, Turkish diplomatic sources stated that Turkish officials informed the Tajikistan authorities that Tajik nationals who did not leave the country as of April 20 would be deported from the country.

It is noteworthy that the decision was taken after it was announced that some of the defendants, who were Tajik citizens, who were announced to have carried out the terrorist attack in Crocus City in Moscow, had traveled to and from Turkey before this action, and after many news about this issue appeared in the Russian press.It was noted that Tajikistan is considering the issue of imposing a visa requirement for Turkish citizens in accordance with the principle of reciprocity.

Notes:

[i] The International Crisis Group provides a detailed analysis of the overall challenge Türkiye faces with ISIS-linked foreigners in Türkiye. For more information, see:

“An Enduring Challenge: ISIS-Linked Foreigners in Turkiye,” International Crisis Group, 28 February 2023. https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/western-europemediterranean/turkiye/267-enduring-challenge-isis-linked-foreigners

Image: Turkish Army vehicles in south-eastern Turkey. In light of recent regional attacks by the Islamic State, Turkey is ramping up counterterror measures in the country, especially targeting Tajiks.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Turkish_Army_vehicles_in_south-eastern_Turkey.jpg
Attribution: Public Domain

Venezuela’s Maduro Targets Previous Allies Under Anti-Corruption Campaign

Posted on by

El Aissami campaigns for governor of the state of Aragua. President Maduro recently had him arrested under the auspices of a national anti-corruption campaign.

“The Venezuelan Prosecutor’s Office has announced the arrest of former minister Tareck El Aissami, a politician who until a year and a half ago belonged to Nicolás Maduro’s circle of trust.”

The Maduro government in Venezuela has launched an anti-corruption probe into politically motivated transnational criminal elements within its regime.[i] According to the first excerpted article in the Spanish daily El País, top targets of the probe include Tareck El Aissami, a former vice president and oil minister, as well as his business partners Samark Lopez, former finance minister Simon Zerpa, and others yet to be identified. El Aissami and his associates stand accused of stealing billions via a cryptocurrency payment scheme at the state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA). Maduro blames El Aissami and his associates for Venezuela’s moribund economy.

Meanwhile, according to the second excerpted article from the Spanish-language outlet CNN en Español, Maduro organized the extraterritorial assassination of a dissident member of the Venezuelan armed forces, Ronald Ojeda, who was living in Chile. The CNN story quotes the prosecutor in the case, who rules out any other cause of death. Given that Maduro faces a difficult scenario this year, discarding erstwhile allies now considered disloyal, such as El Aissami, appears to be crucial for him to consolidate and maintain his regime’s hold on power in an election year. Formerly, El Aissami was considered one of Maduro’s top allies.[ii] However, as the extraterritorial assassination of Ronald Ojeda shows, the Maduro regime’s criminal links remain strong and capable of operating transnationally within Latin America in service of his regime’s consolidation.

OE Insight Summary:

VEN regime of Nicolas Maduro has undertaken a highly questionable anticorruption campaign that seeks to eliminate challengers to the regime and blame those arrested for its economic woes.

Sources:

“Venezuela detiene al exministro del Petróleo Tareck El Aissami, hasta hace poco un político íntimo de Maduro (Venezuela detains former Oil Minister Tareck El Aissami, until recently an intimate politician of Maduro),” El País (a Spanish daily with excellent regional coverage), 9 April 2024. https://elpais.com/america/2024-04-09/venezuela-detiene-al-exministro-del-petroleo-tareck-el-aissami-hasta-hace-poco-un-politico-intimo-de-maduro.html

The Venezuelan Prosecutor’s Office has announced the arrest of former minister Tareck El Aissami, a politician who until a year and a half ago belonged to Nicolás Maduro’s circle of trust. El Aissami was in legal limbo since a mega corruption scheme was uncovered that affected PDVSA, the state oil company that he managed as minister. There is talk of embezzlement in the realm of 21 billion dollars.

“Caso Ronald Ojeda: fiscal de Chile dice que el crimen se ‘organizó y se solicitó’ desde Venezuela (Ronald Ojeda case: Chilean prosecutor says the crime was ‘organized and requested’ from Venezuela),” CNN en Español (the Spanish-language version of the Atlanta-based outlet), 12 April 2024. https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2024/04/12/caso-ronald-ojeda-chile-venezuela-orix/

Héctor Barros, prosecutor in charge of the case investigating the murder of former Venezuelan military officer Ronald Ojeda in Chile, stated in an interview with Chilevisión broadcast…that, according to the investigations, the crime ‘was organized and requested from Venezuela.’ Asked by the Chilevisión journalist about the possibility that the motive for the crime was political, Barros said that he has ‘no precedents that point us in the other direction.’

Notes:

[i] For more information on the criminal nature of the Maduro regime, see: Moises Rendon and Mia Kazman, “Maduro’s Mafia State,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 31 October 2018. https://www.csis.org/analysis/maduros-mafia-state

[ii] The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project has an excellent profile of El Aissami and his importance to the Maduro regime: “Former Venezuelan Oil Minister and Vice President Arrested for Corruption,” OCCRP, 11 April 2024. https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/18646-former-venezuelan-oil-minister-and-vice-president-arrested-for-corruption

Image Information:

Image: El Aissami campaigns for governor of the state of Aragua. President Maduro recently had him arrested under the auspices of a national anti-corruption campaign.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/tareckpsuv/8139341461/
Attribution: CC BY-NC 2.0 DEED.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Says Western Civilization is the Enemy

Posted on by

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks at the Imam Khomeini Hussainiyah on 24 February 2024.

“Western civilization has revealed its true nature. Despite their preaching about humanity and human rights, Western civilization has shown itself to be deceitful, hypocritical, and filled with lies.”

For Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the conflict between Iran and the West is ideological. Khamenei, in an address to the Participants of the Second Congress for the Commemoration of the 24,000 Martyrs of Khuzestan Province, used his speech to lionize their sacrifice as representing the best of Iranian solidarity and piety. He suggested the fighting in Khuzestan during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war gave birth to “a widespread cultural movement” that helped define Iran.[i] Khamenei further argued that the United States has sought to undermine Iran’s development for ideological reasons.[ii] Khamenei assured his audience, however, that Iran’s revolutionary vision was winning. He conflated the progressive turn against Israel with an acceptance of Islam. He stated “Many young people in Western countries, in America and Europe, have started reading the Quran in order to see what… has inspired the people who believe in it to be able to demonstrate this kind of resistance.”  In his mind, Gaza is a symbol of a dispute not over sovereignty, but rather ground zero in a clash between civilizations. Khamenei doubles down on this concept and argues that while the United States views itself as the main pillar of liberalism and democracy, “They are neither liberal nor democratic. They are liars,” he explains. “Western civilization and its misguided values” cannot prevail, he argues, for they are inimically opposed to “culture based on truth and the correct reasoning of Islam” that Iran represents. Khamenei’s antagonism to Western civilization and liberalism suggests he envisions Iran to be in perpetual war and as such, will continue to invest in the weaponry necessary to fight this ideological war without end.

OE Insight Summary:

IRN’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei frames perpetual conflict with the West as being fundamentally ideological in nature.

Sources:

“دیدار دست‌اندرکاران دومین کنگره ۲۴ هزار شهید استان خوزستان با رهبر انقلاب”(The Participants of the Second Congress for the Commemoration of the 24,000 Martyrs of Khuzestan Province Met with the Leader of the Revolution),” Khamenei.ir (Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s personal website), 24 February 2024.

Western civilization has revealed its true nature. Despite their preaching about humanity and human rights, Western civilization has shown itself to be deceitful, hypocritical, and filled with lies. They oppose the execution of a criminal. For instance, when a murderer who has killed several people is to face retribution and has been given the death penalty, they start raising a commotion against his execution and saying that execution is bad. However, when 30,000 people have been executed by the Zionist regime over the course of three or four months, they close their eyes as if nothing has happened. Some of them, not even all of them, raise the question, “Why is Israel doing these things and slaughtering people.” They say this verbally, but in practice, they continue to support [the Zionist regime], providing them with weapons and necessary goods.

The United States shamelessly vetoes the resolution for a ceasefire for stopping the bombing of the people for the umpteenth time. Western civilization has shown itself here. This is the true nature of Western civilization. Western culture, Western civilization, and these well-dressed Western politicians, this is their true nature. On the outside, they appear with a smile on their faces, but on the inside, they are like a rabid dog and a bloodthirsty wolf. This is the true nature of Western civilization. This is the liberal democracy of the West. They are neither liberal nor democratic. They are liars. They do what they want with their hypocrisy. We hope that, God willing, people around the world will gain a better understanding of the facts in these various events and learn more about Islam and the West. And we are certain, we are sure, that this Western civilization and its misguided values will not prevail. It will not continue, and, God willing, the culture based on truth and the correct reasoning of Islam will ultimately triumph over all of these. That day will come soon, by the will of God.

Notes:

[i] Khomeini outlined religious arguments for clerical rule in a series of lectures delivered in 1970 in Najaf, Iraq. These were latter compiled and published as Hukumat-e Islami (Islamic Government). His exegesis, however, did not detail how “Guardianship of the Jurists” would work in a practical sense. q

[ii] Khomeini’s position is historically inaccurate, or at least subject to debate. The 1979 hostage crisis occurred nine months after Khomeini’s Islamic Revolution succeeded in part because the Carter administration maintained the U.S. embassy in Tehran in order to negotiate rapprochement with the new regime. See, Michael Rubin, Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes. New York: Encounter, 2014.

Image Information:

Image: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks at the Imam Khomeini Hussainiyah on 24 February 2024.
Source: https://idc0-cdn0.khamenei.ir/ndata/news/55340/C/14021205_6455340.jpg
Attribution: Khamenei.ir

Iranian Senior Advisor Believes Resistance Axis Already Defeated Israel

Posted on by

Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi speaking at ceremony honoring Syria martyrs in Esfahan. He recently articulated that he believes that the Resistance Axis cannot be defeated.

“The Soviet Union,…invaded and occupied Afghanistan in 1979 [and] finally ran away… American occupiers from 2001 to 2021 occupied Afghanistan and Iraq, but you saw how they ran away.”

On 1 April 2024, around six months into the Israel-Hamas war, Israel killed several senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in an air strike at the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus, Syria.[i] Speaking to IRGC members and the families of those killed, assistant and senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of the armed forces (referring to the Supreme Leader), Major General Rahim Safavi said that the Resistance Axis—Iran’s proxies in the Middle East such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad—have defeated Israel already. GEN Safavi’s remarks, which were published by the Iranian state broadcaster IRIB on 14 April, are noteworthy because they showed that he believes the international community and public opinion have turned against Israel. GEN Safavi argues that the fight against Israel will prevail because “occupiers… don’t have the durability and survivability.” Despite the high death toll and Israel’s continued push to eradicate Hamas in Gaza, he notes that the demise of the militant group was not possible since it is a deeply embedded ideology in the psyche of Palestinians as part of their “culture of resistance.”[ii]

Using history as a reference, GEN Safavi pointed out how the Soviet Union was unable to defeat the Mujahideen in Afghanistan during the Soviet-Afghan war. This view, which is shared by many in the upper echelons of the Iranian clerical establishment, suggests that the Resistance Axis, despite taking heavy hits by Israel in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, will not be vanquished. In GEN Safavi’s view, the Resistance Axis is winning the battle of hearts and minds, given how the international community and international public opinion have turned against Israel. Thus, regardless of the war’s outcome, GEN Safavi believes that “America and [Israel] have been defeated… and the Resistance Axis has been victorious.” This thinking is what incentivizes Iran to continue materially and financially supporting its proxies in the region because, inevitably, it believes Israel will no longer exist as a country and will be replaced by Palestine.

OE Insight Summary:

Senior advisor to IRN Supreme Leader believes Resistance Axis already defeated ISR because Hamas ideology cannot be eradicated, and ISR is losing international public opinion.

Sources:

“محور مقاومت تعیین کننده سرنوشت آینده منطقه خواهد بود (The Resistance Axis will determine the future fate of the region),” Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (state broadcaster), 7 April 2024.

https://www.iribnews.ir/fa/news/4199860/%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%B1-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%85%D8%AA-%D8%AA%D8%B9%DB%8C%DB%8C%D9%86-%DA%A9%D9%86%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%B3%D8%B1%D9%86%D9%88%D8%B4%D8%AA-%D8%A2%DB%8C%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%82%D9%87-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%AF

Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, assistant and senior adviser to the commander in chief of the armed forces (referring to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei), said on April 14 in a ceremony honoring and celebrating the efforts and sacrifices of the terrorized martyrs of Damascus (referring to the high-ranking IRGC Quds Force members killed by Israel on April 1, 2024)…

Addressing the martyrs’ families and the IRGC, he referenced three concepts that change events, trends, and strategies and said: The blood of your oppressed martyrs, the blood of the defenders of the shrine (IRGC-linked personnel dispatched overseas separate from Quds Force), the resistance (axis), and the oppressed Palestine—at least 100,000 martyrs and injured in Gaza—will make a big change in events, trends, and strategies of the region and our country will determine the future fate of the region under the leadership of Iran.

He clarified: The events that are happening now and in the future in the West Asian region (Middle East) or in the international environment and the Islamic World are different during the past four decades in terms of politics, culture, economy, and security…

In the last six months, the Zionist regime (Israel) has committed all kinds of crimes and war crimes, genocide, rape, and famine against two million, which is considered to be the summary of the 75-year record of this regime. These criminal actions change the face of the security, international, media, and culture systems of the world.

Major General Rahim Safavi added: Of course, all the crimes that are currently happening in occupied Palestine are being done with the backing/support of America, some Western countries, and the treacherous silence of some Arab and non-Arab countries (Turkey) in the region…

Contrary to what the criminal [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu announced that (Israel) wants to destroy Hamas’ movement and free its prisoners (hostages), we must say that Hamas’ movement is an ideology, a culture of resistance, and a cause of liberation for Palestinians to freely return to their land, the holy Jerusalem’s Dome of the Rock and al-Aqsa Mosque as the first qibla of Muslims…

Pointing out that no occupying force has been able to remain in any land forever during the past 100 years, he states: by studying history, we see that, for example, the Soviet Union, which at the beginning of the victory of the revolution, invaded and occupied Afghanistan in 1979, finally ran away… American occupiers from 2001 to 2021 occupied Afghanistan and Iraq, but you saw how they ran away…

The powerful occupiers in Islamic and even non-Islamic lands don’t have the durability and survivability because nations fight for the freedom of their lands, and defend their rights, land, and this is a rational and divine tradition…In this very Gaza war, until today, the Palestinian fighters have maintained most of their strength and are resisting and carrying out offensive operations. Whatever happens after the Gaza war indicates that thanks to the blood of the Gaza martyrs, defenders of the holy shrine, Yemen, Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraq, and Syria, America and the Zionists (Israel) have been defeated in this six-month war, and the Resistance Axis has been victorious. With God’s grace, the new Islamic Middle East will be formed, centered on the resistance and Islamic Iran.

Notes:

[i] Susannah George and Mohamad El Chamaa, “Israeli strike on Iranian Consulate in Damascus kills key commander, Iran says,” The Washington Post, 1 April 2024. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/01/syria-iran-embassy-strike-israel/

[ii] Aaron Boxerman “What We Know About the Death Toll in Israel From the Hamas-Led Attacks,” The New York Times, 12 November 2023. 1https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/12/world/middleeast/israel-death-toll-hamas-attack.html

Image Information:

Image: Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi speaking at ceremony honoring Syria martyrs in Esfahan. He recently articulated that he believes that the Resistance Axis cannot be defeated.
Source: Iranian Students’ News Agency (semi-official news agency), 12 April 2024. https://www.isna.ir/photo/1403012412626/%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%85-%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%AA-%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B4%D9%87%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%87-%D9%82%D8%AF%D8%B3-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%81%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%86#7
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

Iranian Warships Conduct Joint Naval Drills With China and Russia

Posted on by

“Shahid Sayyad Shirazi (FS313-03),” Khabar Online (Iranian news website affiliated with reformist political faction), 21 January 2024.

“The new ships added to the IRGC Navy are participating in this joint exercise for the first time and are conducting operations.”

In March, China, Iran, and Russia held joint naval drills in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, known as the 2024 Maritime Security Belt.[i] As part of the fourth group exercise since 2019, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Navy (IRGC-N) deployed two new warships, the Shahid Hassan Bagheri [R1] and Shahid (Ali) Sayyad Shirazi. As noted in the excerpted article from the Iran-based Mehr News Agency, both warships are heavily armed, guided-missile catamarans of the Shahid Soleimani class launched in 2022.[ii] Shahid Soleimani class warships are believed to be the most advanced IRGC-N ships to date and have an operational reach of 5,600 miles.[iii]

According to the second excerpted article from IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency, both ships are named after martyrs of the Iran-Iraq War. The article also provides tech-specs noting, that the warships are powered by four engines, are 67 meters long, travel 45 knots, and carry an array of defense and offensive missiles, and an armed combat helicopter. According to Tasmin, the warships are reportedly capable of traveling 5,500 nautical miles—a slight discrepancy to the 5,600-mile range reported for Shahid Soleimani class ships by Mehr News Agency. In January 2024, another Shahid Soleimani class warship was revealed: the Shahid Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis The ship is named after the commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella group of Shia militias, whose commander was assassinated along with Soleimani in Iraq. While the Shahid Soleimani class warships are no match for U.S. capabilities, they should not be underestimated. The new additions are part of Iran’s plans to expand its presence in the Persian Gulf and extend its reach from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.

OE Insight Summary:

IRN recently added three warships to its navy and deployed two of them during military drills with CHN and RUS in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

Sources:

“حضور ناوهای جدید سپاه در رزمایش مشترک با چین و روسیه دراقیانوس هند (The presence of new IRGC ships in the joint exercise with China and Russia in the Indian Ocean),” Mehr News Agency (semi-official news agency owned by Iranian government’s Islamic Development Organization), 13 March 2024. https://www.mehrnews.com/news/6054031/%D8%AD%D8%B6%D9%88%D8%B1-%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AC%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%B3%D9%BE%D8%A7%D9%87-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%B1%D8%B2%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B4-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%B1%DA%A9-%D8%A8%D8%A7%DA%86%DB%8C%D9%86-%D9%88-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%88%D8%B3

According to Mehr News, the 2024 (Maritime) Security Belt exercise was conducted with the participation of the countries China, Russia, and Iran with shooting at the designated surface targets.

In this exercise, the Shahid Mahmoudi, Shahid Haj Qasem Soleimani, Shahid Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis warships, Tondar-class Shahid Tavassoli frigate, as well as IRGC maritime helicopters and the heroic soldiers of the Islamic Republic are present.

The new ships added to the IRGC Navy are participating in this joint exercise for the first time and are conducting operations.

“الحاق ۲ ناو رزمی شهید صیاد شیرازی و شهید حسن باقری به نیروی دریایی سپاه (Addition of two warships Shahid (Ali) Sayyad Shirazi and Shahid Hassan Bagheri to the IRGC Navy),” Tasnim News Agency (IRGC-affiliated outlet), 21 January 2024. https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1402/11/30/3041554/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%82-2-%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%88-%D8%B1%D8%B2%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%B4%D9%87%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%B5%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%B4%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B2%DB%8C-%D9%88-%D8%B4%D9%87%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%AD%D8%B3%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B1%D9%88%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%D8%B3%D9%BE%D8%A7%D9%87

According to Tasnim News Agency’s defense correspondent, this morning in Bandar Abbas (a port city), the combat patrol vessels the Shahid (Ali) Sayyad Shirazi and Shahid Hassan Bagheri were joined by the IRGC Naval Combat Organization in the presence of chief of staff of the armed forces Major General Mohammad Bagheri.

These two stealth vessels are of the Shahid (Qasem) Soleimani class, and recently the Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis vessel of this class was unveiled and joined the IRGC-Navy. These ocean-going vessels are catamaran-type with a speed of 45 knots and many offensive and defensive missiles.

These vessels are equipped with a Navab vertical launch missile defense system and a Sayyad cruise missile with a range of 700 kilometers. They are capable of carrying three light missile launchers and an armed combat helicopter. These two IRGC naval vessels are 67 meters long, 20 meters wide, weigh 600 tons, and have four engines. Shahid Bagheri’s vessel was built at the IRGC-N’s specialized vessel center in Bushehr. The Shahid (Ali) Sayyad Shirazi vessel is equipped with Sayyad long-range defense missiles and Navab defense missiles. These vessels are capable of sailing 5,500 nautical miles.

Notes:

[i] According to Iranian Rear Adm. Amrollah Nozari, the exercises cover 6,500 square miles of sea “in an area of strategic importance to the whole world.” See: Brad Lendon, “China, Russia and Iran put on show of force with Mideast naval drills,” CNN, 14 March 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/13/middleeast/china-russia-iran-navy-drills-intl-hnk/index.html

[ii] The Shahid Soleimani class warships are named in honor of assassinated Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed via a U.S. drone strike in Iraq in 2020. For a review of the U.S. strike on Soleimani, See: Michael Crowley, Falih Hassan and Eric Schmitt, “U.S. Strike in Iraq Kills Qassim Suleimani, Commander of Iranian Forces,” The New York Times, 2 January 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/world/middleeast/qassem-soleimani-iraq-iran-attack.html

[iii] Eric Wertheim, “Iran’s first VLS missile catamaran,” U.S. Naval Institute, December 2023. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/december/irans-first-vls-missile-catamaran; Farzin Nadimi, “New Iranian Warship Signals Longer Maritime Reach, More Aggressive Strategy,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 16 September 2022. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/new-iranian-warship-signals-longer-maritime-reach-more-aggressive-strategy

Image Information:

Image: “Shahid Sayyad Shirazi (FS313-03),” Khabar Online (Iranian news website affiliated with reformist political faction), 21 January 2024.
Source: https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/1874777/%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%87-%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B3-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%B3%D9%BE%D8%A7%D9%87-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%87%DB%8C-%D8%B4%D8%AF%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%AC%D8%B2%D8%A6%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B9%DA%A9%D8%B3
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

Belarussian Military Undertakes Mass Training Mobilization

Posted on by

103rd Mobile Brigade of Belarus, BTR-ZD [R1] tank with an installed ZU-23-2[R2] . Belarus has recently mobilized parts of its military along Lithuanian and Polish borders.

“A situation has been created where there is not yet a war today, but the enemy prepares for one. Our actions demonstrate our determination to protect our country. We are prepared to protect our homeland.”

Belarus has mobilized 5,000 reserve troops to conduct extensive military training along two NATO borders, according to the first excerpted article from the state-run news agency Belarus Today. The first site is located along the border of Lithuania, seven miles from the Lithuanian capital city Vilnius, near the Belarussian village Grodzie. The second training site sits along the Polish-Belarussian border in Brest. Additionally, the Belarussian Ministry of Defense reports that its 19th Mechanized Brigade and the 120th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade are fully combat-ready. Belarus Today also reports that Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin stressed that Belarus cannot react calmly to the growing threats and militant rhetoric of its neighbors and that Belarus must learn from its history and apply the lessons learned to the modern day. The minister further emphasized that although Belarus is monitoring the situation, the defense ministry will not hesitate to act in defense of its homeland. The Belarus Today article reports that Defense Minister Khrenin noted that the function of these combat readiness checks is to “train military personnel, improve issues of combat and mobilization preparedness, and to improve skills operating on unfamiliar terrain.”[i] Among the delivered supplies, the Belarussian Ministry of Defense showcased T-72B [R1] tanks and BMP-2 [R2] armored vehicles.

The second excerpted article from the prominent Polish public news service Polskie Radio 24 describes these training movements as “disturbing” with soldiers simulating realistic combat situations with large quantities of heavy military equipment being stationed on the frontier with NATO. The exercises were noted to be in response to NATO exercises in nearby nations, according to Deputy Minister of Defense General Viktor Gulevich. Belarus’s recent military activities suggest the nation may be actively preparing for a wartime footing to engage in armed conflict by training and improving military readiness, or that the nation is utilizing its military to posture, understanding the close watch the NATO border states of Lithuania and Poland maintain. While the exact intentions of these exercises are unclear, in either scenario, these movements bear monitoring.

OE Summary Insight:

BLR mobilizes an extensive network of military personnel and equipment to complete combat readiness checks and training along the borders of LTU and POL.

Sources:

“Хренини: Вооруженные Силы Беларуси повышают уровень проверок боеготовности (Khrenin: The Armed Forced of Belarus increase the level of combat readiness checks),” Belarus Today (Belarussian state-run media outlet), 26 March 2024.  https://www.sb.by/articles/khrenin-vooruzhennye-sily-belarusi-povyshayut-uroven-proverok-boegotovnosti.html 

There are increasing challenges and threats, and we are increasing the level of checks. According to the scale carried out, this check is one of the largest. The 19th Mechanized Brigade and the 120th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade are on full combat readiness. Nearly 5,000 reserve soldiers are taking part in these events (combat readiness checks).

“Today we are seeing many challenges and threats growing. It is the militant rhetoric which is heard from our neighbors. We cannot, of course, treat this calmly because we have learned our lessons from the history of our time,” stressed Viktor Khrenin.

Concerning combat readiness checks, (they are being) held in order to train military personnel, improve issues of combat and mobilization preparedness, and to improve skills operating on unfamiliar terrain. 

“Therefore, units did not go to the training ground, but to real places, real routes, and real borders. The tasks (these places) fulfill are educational. For them a situation has been created where there is not yet a war today, but the enemy prepares for one. Our actions demonstrate our determination to protect our country. We are prepared to protect our homeland,” stressed the minister (Viktor Khrenin). 

“We must watch and track the situation. If needed, (we are) determined to act. We will not stand on ceremony if we experience provocation. This is our main task,” added Viktor Khrenin. 

“Niepokojące ruchy białoruskich wojsk. Ćwichzenia tuż przy granicy z Polską (Disturbing movements of Belarusian troops. Exercises right next to the border with Poland),” Polskie Radio 24 (Polish national public-service radio broadcasting network), 21 March 2024. https://polskieradio24.pl/artykul/3353184,niepokojace-ruchy-bialoruskich-wojsk-cwiczenia-tuz-przy-granicy-z-polska 

The squadron of the 115th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the Belarussian Army is conducting tactical exercises at the “Brest ” training ground, informed the Ministry of Defense of Belarus. The “Brest” training ground is located near the border with Poland. 

Soldiers shoot at training targets, operating in a situation as close to combat conditions as possible. The Ministry of Defense emphasized that the units take into account the experience of the Russian army in the war in Ukraine.

The exercises are part of the control of the combat readiness of the Belarusian armed forces, which has been carried out for 10 days, mainly in the western part of the country. Deputy Minister of Defense and Chief of the General Staff, General Viktor Gulevich, stated at the beginning of this operation that it was being carried out as a reaction to military exercises of NATO countries near the borders of Belarus. 

…Railway transports carrying elements of the 19th mechanized Brigade of the Belarusian Armed Forces arrived in Ashmyany in the Grodno Oblast, Belarus. A total of 50 wagons with soldiers and military equipment. 

The amount of equipment delivered corresponds to an incomplete mechanized Battalion reinforced by a tank company. These are four passenger cars with staff, three covered wagons with equipment and ammunition and 39 platform wagons…Ashmyany is located just over 50 km from the capital of Lithuania, Vilnius. The arrival of the transport at the station there was confirmed by the Belarussian Ministry of defense. The resort even published photos, among others T-72B tanks and BMP-2 to armored vehicles. After unloading, the equipment will go to the position scheduled for inspection. The field camp where the Belarusian soldiers with equipment will stay is to be located near the village of Grodzie, 12 kilometers from the border with Lithuania.

Notes:

[i] Belarussian opposition website Belarusian Hajun Project, which reports on the movements of the Belarussian military within Belarus, noted 50 rail cars-worth of soldiers and equipment arrived at the Lithuanian-Belarussian border for inspection and combat readiness checks. For more, see: “Large-scale combat readiness inspection, drills with the territorial defense, and rearmament of the army: review of the main military events in Belarus in March,” Belarusian Hajun Project, 14 April 2024. https://hajun.info/analytics/large-scale-combat-readiness-inspection-drills-with-the-territorial-defense-and-rearmament-of-the-army-review-of-the-main-military-events-in-belarus-in-march/

Image Information:

Image: 103rd Mobile Brigade of Belarus, BTR-ZD [R1] tank with an installed ZU-23-2[R2] . Belarus has recently mobilized parts of its military along Lithuanian and Polish borders.
Author: Serge Serebro
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_Belarus#/media/File:Btr-d_Belarus.jpg 
Attribution: CC BY-SA 3.0

Russian-Finnish Tensions Rise Amidst Border Closures and “Hybrid” Tactics

Posted on by

Russian border crossing at Paljakka, Kuusamo, Finland. In light of rising tensions, Finland shut down its border with Russia.

“There are hundreds and possibly thousands of people close to Finland’s border on the Russian side that could be instrumentalized against Finland.”

In December 2023, Finland closed its 800-mile border with Russia, which included three maritime crossings for smaller boats, in the wake of Finland formally joining NATO. These closures have heightened tensions between Russia and Finland.

According to the first article from the Norway-based The Barents Observer, the closure includes three maritime border crossings for smaller boats, which will impact leisure boating in the Barents Sea.  As per a second article, also from The Barents Observer, Finland had been overwhelmed with over a thousand migrants and asylum seekers from the Middle East and Africa. According to the article, Moscow has orchestrated the influx of migrants in a deliberate “hybrid” tactic by the Russian government – so-called “instrumentalized immigration” – to overwhelm the country and its border police as a punishment for closing the border to Russians. Authorities in Moscow have organized flows of asylum seekers on Finland’s eastern border since last fall, the Finish prime minister has argued. A representative for the Finnish border guard said that the maritime border was important to close because reaching Finland by sea is “life threatening,” given the Baltic Sea’s much harsher conditions than the Mediterranean.[i]

In response, the European Union has voiced its support for Finland. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, paid a visit to the Finnish-Russian border in April to say that “Europe stands by your side” as it seeks to secure its border against such “hybrid attacks.”[ii] With the weather warming up, officials there expect an even larger influx of migrants and asylum seekers in the weeks and months ahead. For the latter half of the 20th century, following a war between the Soviet Union and Finland in 1939, relations between the two neighbors were relatively peaceful. The recent rise in tensions and border closures have drawn concerns that Russia, beyond staging hybrid operations like “instrumentalized immigration,” could stage a false-flag border intervention to test NATO resolve and its Article Five protections.

OE Insight Summary:

As the RUS-FIN border remains indefinitely closed, RUS has employed hybrid tactics and ‘instrumentalized immigration’ to protest FIN joining NATO.

Sources:

“Finland’s eastern border to remain shut indefinitely (Восточная граница Финляндии останется закрытой на неопределенный срок),” The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 8 April 2024. https://thebarentsobserver.com/ru/granicy/2024/04/vostochnaya-granica-finlyandii-ostanetsya-zakrytoy-na-neopredelennyy-srok

In the past, the closure has been reconsidered every couple of months, but this time the decision is open-ended…

With warmer weather on the way, this time the decision also covers border crossing points at three small-boat harbours: Haapasaari, an island off the southeastern city of Kotka, Santio, an island in Virolahti, Finland’s southeasternmost municipality, and Nuijamaa lake harbour in Lappeenranta on the Russian border. They will be closed to pleasure boat traffic from mid-April. “By closing border crossing points for maritime traffic to leisure boating, the Government is preparing for the possibility that instrumentalised migration could expand to maritime traffic as spring progresses,” the Interior Ministry said in a statement.

“This would be dangerous to people seeking to enter Finland and would burden maritime search and rescue,” it went on to say.

The frontier has been closed since December, when Finnish authorities accused Russia of orchestrating the flow of third-country asylum seekers across the border as a means of hybrid influence.

Nearly two months ago, the government led by Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (NCP) extended the closure until 14 April. Another extension was widely expected, with officials predicting that favourable spring weather conditions would spur more arrivals across the border.

The cabinet also plans to ask Parliament soon to approve a more stringent border law that would allow migrants deemed to have no grounds for seeking asylum to be immediately sent back to Russia. That bill, which was still being finalised on Thursday, has come under criticism for violating international border treaties.

Atle Staalesen, “As Helsinki prepares new measures against Russian hybrid operations, President Stubb makes visit to the border,” The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 27 March 2024. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/borders/2024/03/helsinki-prepares-new-measures-against-russian-hybrid-operations-president-stubb

Together with his wife, President Alexander Stubb on Wednesday arrived at Niirala checkpoint where he met with representatives of the Finnish Border Guard. Captain of the border guard station Mikko Sorasalmi gave the president an introduction to equipment applied by the border patrols. On site were also representatives of the EU border agency Frontex and the discussion took place in Finnish, English and German, Yle reports.

The Niirala border-crossing point used to be site buzzing with travellers, but since mid-December the border between Finland and Russia has been closed and travellers forced to use checkpoints in the Baltic states or northern Norway. The closure came after several thousands of migrants flocked from Russia and into the Schengen zone through the Finnish border-crossing points. Finnish authorities are confident that the migrant flows were orchestrated by Moscow as part of a hybrid influence operation. 

This week’s visit of Alexander Stubb comes as Finland is preparing new measures to counter Russian hybrid influence on the country. Last week, the government completed a draft law that is aimed at preventing asylum seekers from entering the country. The bill aims at preventing asylum seekers from entering the country. The acceptance of asylum applications would be significantly limited. The bill is balancing between national security concerns and international human rights consideration, representatives of the government admit … It is aimed at influencing Finland’s national security and public order, the government leader underlines. “We have to prepare for the fact that the situation may get more difficult when spring arrives,” he said in last Friday’s press conference. “The authorities need tools to manage the terrain border.”

Notes:

[i] Mariia Yemets, “Finland closes sea checkpoints near border with Russia until mid-April,” Ukrainska Pravda, 5 April 2024. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/5/7449951/

[ii] Doug Cunningham, “Ursula von der Leyen visits border to stand by Finland against Russian ‘hybrid attacks’,” UPI, 19 April 2024. https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2024/04/19/Finland-EU-Russian-hybrid-attacks/1921713541719/

Image Information:

Image: Russian border crossing at Paljakka, Kuusamo, Finland. In light of rising tensions, Finland shut down its border with Russia.
Source: Fanny Schertzer, (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Finland-Russia_border#/media/File:Finnish-Russian_border,_Paljakka-2.jpg)
Attribution: CC BY-SA 3.0