Author Archives: Paris Gordon

Belarus Agrees To Host Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons

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Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko (Left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (Right) at a joint press conference.

“As a part of the response to possible threats to the military security of our country, we clearly defined and communicated the views of Belarus on the use of the tactical nuclear weapons deployed in our territory.”

Belarus has agreed to allow Russian tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) to be deployed in the country, a decision that has led it to revise its national military doctrine. According to the first excerpted article from Russian state-managed RIA News, presidents Lukashenko and Putin confirmed the successful deployment of Russian TNWs onto Belarusian soil in December 2023. Under the agreement, Russian TNWs in Belarus would remain under Russian control.[i] The placement of these weapons in Belarus would put them close enough to strike NATO members.

As a result of this move, in January 2024, Belarus revised its military doctrine, which is now known as the New Military Doctrine. Belarus’s newly revised military doctrine is unequivocal in declaring the West as an aggressor actively seeking to disrupt the integrity of Belarussian national security. Notably, the New Military Doctrine states that the Russian TNWs are an acceptable means of national defense, citing a willingness to work with Moscow to deploy these weapons against perceived threats from the West. Belarus’s New Military Doctrine underscores its willingness to use TNWs, citing reasons of national security and an explicit list of enemies, including the United States and NATO, with Poland and the Baltic states as its primary adversaries. The excerpted article from Belarus Today, a government publication closely linked to the Belarussian presidential administration, points out that the “Aggressive nature of the military policy of Western nations has ceased to be masked by formulations about the exclusively defensive orientation of their military doctrines. These national and coalition documents establish claims to global and regional dominance. They openly name states that are hostile to them, including Belarus.” For Russia, the move to station TNWs in Belarus has expanded its strategic footprint.[ii] Furthermore, as detailed in the third excerpted article, from the Belarusian state-run media organization BELTA –News of Belarus, Belarus has revised its doctrine to increase its defense by focusing on Belarussian military strategy in the likelihood of escalating conflicts with neighboring states such as Poland. Russia arming its ally with nuclear devices, Belarus revising its military doctrine to allow for deployment of Russian TNWs and explicitly naming enemies serves to further heighten regional tensions, especially between Poland and Belarus.[iii]

Sources:

RIA News, “Лукашенко назвал последствия появления ядерного оружия в Белоруссии (Lukashenko identifies the consequences of the appearance of nuclear weapons in Belarus),” RIA News (One of Russia’s largest state news agencies), 19 January 2024. https://ria.ru/20240119/belorussiya-1922400028.html

In March (of 2023) Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Moscow and Minsk had agreed to put tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. … In June the President of Russia communicated that in accordance with Belarussian-Russian plans the first nuclear charges had been delivered to Belarus. In December (of 2023), Lukashenko informed journalists that all Russian tactical nuclear weapons, agreed upon by the two countries, had been delivered to the (Belarussian) Republic, and were “in place, in good condition,” and that the military is training daily.

Nikolai Buzin, “На чем сделан акцент в проекте новой Военной доктрины Беларуси (What is the emphasis of the New Military Doctrine of Belarus),” Belarus Today (official government news channel), 24 January 2024. https://www.sb.by/articles/v-mire-uvazhayut-silnykh.html

“As a part of the assessment of trends in the development of the military-political situation (we have) clearly named the sources of military threat to Belarus. (These are) the United States, NATO, Poland and the Baltic nations. In particular, article 9 states that the “aggressive nature of the military policy of Western nations has ceased to be masked by formulations about the exclusively defensive orientation of their military doctrines. These national and coalition documents establish claims to global and regional dominance. They openly name states that are hostile to them…, which includes the Republic Belarus.”

“Какой будет новая Военная доктрина Беларуси. Хренин раскрыл подробности документа (What will be the new Military doctrine of Belarus. Khrenin revealed the details of the document),” BELTA – News of Belarus (official government news channel), 6 January 2024. https://www.belta.by/society/view/kakoj-budet-novaja-voennaja-doktrina-belarusi-hrenin-raskryl-podrobnosti-dokumenta-610049-2024/

Among important innovations, (Viktor Khrenin) describes, for instance, targeting, that is, a clear indication of the sources of military threats to Belarus. At the same time, unlike NATO countries, which in their war documents explicitly name (their) enemies, listing specific countries, Belarus states likely sources of threats. “We expressly name sources of threats and from the countries which they emanate.” – explained Viktor Khrenin. He also brought attention to the strengthened concepts of national security. “For existing challenges of military security there is a clearly formulated line of threats.” The head of the Ministry of Defense explained. “Based on this, we have formulated measures that the state will take in case of risks, challenges, and threats. We have clearly defined what government agencies should do and what functions they will perform. As a part of the response to possible threats to the military security of our country, we clearly defined and communicated the views of Belarus on the use of the tactical nuclear weapons deployed in our territory.”

Notes:

[i] TNWs are designed for the battlefield and can greatly range in impact. A tactical nuclear weapon is any nuclear weapon not classified as “strategic” by U.S.-Russian arms control agreements, such as SALT. For more information, see: “What are ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons?,” The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), https://www.icanw.org/what_are_tactical_nuclear_weapons; Most TNWs have a maximum range of 500km if land-based or 600km if airborne. For additional information, see: “Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNW),” Nuclear Threat Initiative, 30 April 2002. https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/tactical-nuclear-weapons/

[ii] Previous reporting notes that the withdrawal of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons would only be negotiable if the United States were to completely withdraw American nuclear arms from the European continent. See: RIA News (one of Russia’s largest state news agencies), 31 July 2023. https://ria.ru/20230731/tyao-1887278977.html

[iii] For the Polish perspective on Belarus’s tactical nuclear weapons, see: Andrezj Wilk and Piotr Zochowski, “Russian nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus: the consequences,” Center for Eastern Studies (Warsaw based think tank) 6 June 2023. https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2023-06-06/russian-nuclear-weapons-deployed-belarus-consequences

Image Information:

Image: Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko (Left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (Right) at a joint press conference.
Source: Kremlin.ru, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66648
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Belarus and Iran Form Alliance Against the West

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“Our answer is one: we must work closely with one another and cooperate together to resist these attacks.”

In response to perceived Western aggression, Belarus and Iran have deepened their pre-existing relationship into a strategic alliance that now includes a developing partnership in military, economic, and political affairs. According to the excerpted press statement published by The Press-Service of the President of Belarus, the goal of the alliance is to “work closely with one another and cooperate together to resist…attacks.” In an additional press statement featured on the Belarus Ministry of Defense website, Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin, stated “from the beginning of the victory of the Islamic Revolution, the coalition of Western states, led by the United States, has always tried to hinder the development and prosperity of Iran. But, despite the imposed eight-year war, numerous territorial acts, unprecedented sanctions and political pressure, Iran has built a strong and independent government.” Underscoring this alliance, earlier this year the two nations signed a comprehensive cooperative roadmap that runs through 2026.[i] Prospective discussions between the two Ministries of Defense see the possibility of collaborative military training as well as bilateral cooperation of their Armed Forces. Through their alliance, Belarus and Iran seek to strengthen their military position in response to perceived threats from the West. This could indicate the possibility that Belarus and Iran are actively preparing for a military engagement, fueled by shared feelings of Western aggression. The new agreement has set a precedent for military resources and information to be shared openly and freely, as we have seen from the discussions by the Defense Ministers about beginning joint field training. This new alliance strengthens the two nations through political, military, and economic preference and support on the perceived hostile global stage. From this accord, each nation has now gained a resource to increase their resiliency both in and out of military conflict. Iran and Belarus mutually benefit from sharing military training to increase proficiency, and outside of wartime, they each have a partner in economic and political growth globally.

Sources:

“Встреча с первым вице-презмдентом Ирана Мохаммадом Мохбером (Meeting with the First-Vice President of Iran Mohammad Mokhber),” Пресс-служба Президента Республики Беларусь (The Press-Service of the President of Belarus), 17 October 2023. https://president.gov.by/ru/events/vstrecha-s-pervym-vice-prezidentom-irana-mohammadom-mohberom-1697531352

“I hope that you will not be disappointed with your visit. There are a lot of questions to discuss. Therefore, I also hope that our conversation will have a good practical result,” the head of state welcomed the Iranian guest. “You know the situation that Belarus is in. It is a similar situation to your own. Pressure, exerted on our states, without precedent, but you have already learned to resist it somewhat, and your experience for us is most important”…Alexander Lukashenko remarked that the situation in the world is heating up, and the crisis in the Middle East contributes to the fact that unfriendly Western states, led by the United States, are constantly directing this conflict against Iran. “You feel it better. Our answer is one: we must work closely with one another, and cooperate together to resist these attacks,” stated the President (Lukashenko).

“Официальный визит Министра обороны Беларуси в Исламскую Республику Иран (дополнено) (Official Visit of the Minister of Defense of Belarus to the Islamic Republic of Iran (Updated)),” Министерство Обороны Республики Беларусь (The Ministry of Defense of Belarus), 01 September 2023. https://www.mil.by/ru/news/162070/

“The history of relations between Belarus and Iran has shown, that our people know how to be friends and highly value the relationship between our countries, built on the principles of mutual respect and common values,” stated the Minister of Defense of the Republic of Belarus Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin during the meeting with the Minister of Defense and Support of the Armed Forces of Iran Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani.  

Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin also noted that from the beginning of the victory of the Islamic Revolution, the coalition of Western states, led by the United States, has always tried to hinder the development and prosperity of Iran. 

But, despite the imposed eight-year war, numerous territorial acts, unprecedented sanctions and political pressure, Iran has built a strong and independent government. “And in this our nations are similar. We, like you, clearly and consistently defend our sovereignty and independence. We are brought together by the similarity of our positions in many international issues. It is not only the independent and pragmatic political leadership of our governments but the unity of views on the establishment of a just world order based on the development of multipolarity and non-interference in internal affairs. Our nations together defend the inviolability of international law,” noted the Minister of Defense…The parties discussed the state and prospects for bilateral cooperation in field training and usage of the Armed forces, also further steps were planned to deepen and intensify bilateral collaboration.

Notes:

[i] For a more comprehensive understanding of the types of cooperation, military and other, that Belarus and Iran have agreed upon, see: “Лукашенко и Раиси подписали дорожную карту всестороннего сотрудничества до 2026 года (Lukashenko and Raisi sign roadmap of comprehensive cooperation until 2026),” Gosstandart (Belarussian State Media), 13 March 2023. https://gosstandart.gov.by/lukashenko-i-raisi-podpisali-dorozhnuyu-kartu-vsestoronnego-sotrudnichestva-do-2026

Poland And The Baltic States Express Concern About Regional Stability

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Members of the Wagner group training Belarusian troops in summer 2023.

“It can be expected that the Wagner troops will be used for border provocations against Polish uniformed services… It also cannot be ruled out that some of the mercenaries will try to infiltrate Poland and other countries mainly on the Eastern Flank.”

Since the Wagner Group, a private Russian military company known for its brutality and criminal activities, began training in Belarus in July, concerns amongst the neighboring states have steadily risen regarding regional border security. Belarussian President Lukashenko offered the Wagner Group employment in Belarus — with the goal of increasing the effectiveness of the Belarusian military — following its attempted run on the Russian capital in June of 2023.[i]

As the excerpted publication from the Polish Institute of International Affairs (Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych) indicates, despite interacting under the auspices of improving Belarusian military readiness and effectiveness, Belarus’s neighbors fear that Belarus is readying additional means of offense against its neighbors. Poland’s concern is that as Belarus’ offensive forces become better trained, they may create instability in the delicate border peace that the two countries have reached. Furthermore, the article suggests that the Wagner Group’s location in Belarus suggests the possibility of a larger-scale engagement within Poland and other border countries like Lithuania. In essence, Belarussian “Wagner-trained fighters” could enter the open border zones with a Belarussian passport with the intent to identify viable targets in Poland, specifically within the critical infrastructure.[ii]  Additionally, the statement requests the Wagner Group be declared a terrorist organization. Such a designation would significantly broaden the legal bounds of recourse and response available to both Poland and NATO, both as a preventative measure to increase border security but also as a guarantee of support from NATO should Belarus pursue further provocative actions. As expressed in the second excerpted piece, a joint statement from Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia released on Poland’s Ministry of Internal Affairs X (formerly Twitter) feed, Belarus, by collaborating with Wagner and, more broadly, with Russia, is taking deliberate steps to destabilize the region. The joint statement declares that the four nations would take decisive and swift action should further provocation occur, noting that any border infractions would result in the immediate shutdown of all Belarussian border crossings. In addition, the governments called for the immediate removal of all Wagner Group members and holdings from Belarussian borders. Their statement asserts that the Wagner Group poses a threat not only to each country’s respective national security but to the security of the free world as well.

Sources:

Anna Maria Dyner, “Grupa Wagnera na Białorusi – potencjalne zagrożenia dla Polski (Wagner Group Arrives in Belarus – Potential Threats to Poland),” Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych (official website of Polish Institute of International Affairs), 27 July 2023. https://pism.pl/publications/wagner-group-arrives-in-belarus-potential-threats-to-poland

The mercenaries in Belarus give the Belarusian and Russian authorities additional tools for hybrid action against NATO countries, in particular Poland and Lithuania. It can be expected that the Wagner troops will be used for border provocations against Polish uniformed services, including the possible use of arms or attempts to destroy barriers. They may also be used to coordinate and command operations at the border. It also cannot be ruled out that some of the mercenaries will try to infiltrate Poland and other countries mainly on the Eastern Flank (both illegally and, for example, with the use of Belarusian passports) with the task of identifying critical infrastructure facilities. Some of them may also be prepared to carry out acts of sabotage on Polish soil. … These activities will increase tensions and have a psychological impact on Polish society in the context of, among other things, the Belarusian-Russian military exercise Union Shield, scheduled for the end of September, or the October parliamentary elections in Poland.

It may also be necessary to recognize the Wagner Group as a terrorist organization. This would allow the use of the Anti-Terrorist Activities Act, which, among other things, broadens the spectrum of activities that can be undertaken by the relevant security services and authorities against persons suspected of seeking to carry out terrorist activities. In addition, Poland may hold consultations within NATO and propose a common approach by Alliance members to the Wagner Group, chiefly by pointing out that they are being used by Belarus and Russia as a tool of hybrid action that requires a coordinated response from the Alliance, for example, in the form of an increased Allied presence at the border.

At the same time, Poland and NATO should announce that they will use all available instruments to fight the Wagner Group mercenaries if they pose a threat, with Belarus and Russia fully responsible for their actions on the border.

Mariusz Kamiński, Angé Bilotaité, Māris Kučinskis, Lauri Läänemets, “Oświadczenie Ministrów Spraw Wewnętrznych Polski,  Litwy, Łotwy i Estonii po spotkaniu konsultacyjnym w Warszawie (Statement by the Ministers of the Interiors of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia after the consultation meeting in Warsaw),” Twitter@MSWiA_GOV_PL, 28 August 2023. https://twitter.com/MSWiA_GOV_PL/status/1696123142249283636

We emphasize that the actions taken by Russia and Belarus cooperating as an attempt to deliberately destabilize the situation in the region. We declare we are determined to oppose this together. Our answer will be joint, decisive and appropriate to the current situation- up to the possibility of further isolating both regimes by closing border crossings. We are determined to defend the borders of the democratic world, leaving access to our territories for the…Belarussian oppositionists.In this regard we call on the Belarussian regime to remove the “Wagner” group from the territories of Belarus…

Notes:

[i] For a Belarussian perspective on the Wagner Group’s presence, as well as their views regarding Polish and neighboring states reactions, see: “Тенденции военно-политической обстановки и обновленную Концепцию нацбезопасности обсудили в Витебске (Trends in the military-political situation and the updated National Security Concept were discussed in Vitebsk)” Белта (A news service of Belarus), 13 September 2023. https://www.belta.by/amp/regions/view/tendentsii-voenno-politicheskoj-obstanovki-i-obnovlennuju-kontseptsiju-natsbezopasnosti-obsudili-v-587792-2023/

[ii] For more information on the operational tactics of Wagner Group from their previous engagements in Ukraine, see: Charles Bartles, “The Composition And Tactics Of Wagner Assault Detachments,” OE Watch, 03-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/the-composition-and-tactics-of-wagner-assault-detachments/

Image Information:

Image: Members of the Wagner group training Belarusian troops in summer 2023.
Source: https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcommons.wikimedia.org%2Fwiki%2F, File%3APMC_wagner_in_belarus_2.png&psig=AOvVaw3nFw9Wep8soItuzbytxYTa&ust=1695536938589000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=2ahUKEwi799i4jcCBAxUeW_EDHdRvBoQQjRx6BAgAEAw
Attribution: CC By 3.0 Deed