Tag Archives: Russia

Iranian Self-Sufficiency in Aircraft Spare Parts May Benefit Sanctioned States

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Inspecting Airbus jet engines, April 2022

“Some countries that were sanctioned… are coming to Iran and entrusting their planes to Iranian experts.”

Iran’s air transportation industry is under stress due to international sanctions.[i] In response to the sanctions, the Mehr News Agency reports that Iran’s Ministry of Defense has developed the industrial and technical capacity to develop spare aircraft parts and conduct maintenance on critical systems like aircraft engines.[ii] While this follows a known pattern of Iranian claims to immunize themselves from international sanctions, the current iteration differs because Iranian officials openly say they will use their new capacity to help other countries subject to international sanctions.

The willingness to help Russia or other countries evade sanctions, for example, by shipping drones to Russia, signals both a sense of impunity among Iranian officials but could also reflect growing substance to Iran’s alliances with other states that find themselves international pariahs. For Iran to help Russia service its leased Boeing or Airbus aircraft fleshes out bilateral relations beyond simply a one-way drone trade. Iran’s stated willingness to bypass sanctions to maintain or potentially upgrade Russian aircraft can have broad ramifications on the operational environment, not only in the Middle East but elsewhere around the world. First, Iranian efforts to help subjected states bypass sanctions blunt a major tool of international diplomacy meant to deter rogue or aggressive behavior. Second, supplying sanctioned states much-needed aviation hardware would be a boon to Iranian defense industries both financially and by allowing them greater opportunities to reverse engineer platforms such as the Sukhoi-35S [R1].[iii] Finally, money earned by Revolutionary Guard-run factories could also help support or subsidize Revolutionary Guard or proxy activities across the region.

Sources:

“خودکفایی ایران در ساخت قطعات هواپیماهای مسافربری”(Iran’s self-sufficiency in the manufacture of passenger plane parts),” Mehr News Agency (semi-official news agency owned by Iranian government’s Islamic Development Organization), 9 March 2024. https://www.mehrnews.com/news/6049371

In an interview with Mehr, Javad Mashayekh, with reference to Iran’s self-sufficiency in the field of manufacturing passenger aircraft parts that researchers and specialists in knowledge-based companies have achieved, stated, “In the field of commercial and passenger planes, Iran was once dependent on procurement of aircraft parts, even for maintenance but because of sanctions,
we were unable to procure parts from other international suppliers. The deputy of the scientific department of knowledge-based economy development added, “This is what happened after the imposition of sanctions: Some of Iran’s knowledge-based companies used their power to develop car parts, and repair and maintenance of aircraft engines locally.” Mashayekh also said that the most complex part of an aircraft is its engine and, he noted, maintenance requires a high degree of technical knowledge. We promise that in these fields, our country has achieved self-sufficiency so we do not need to send out planes to foreign countries for almost any kind of repair or to have maintenance done there.

He continued, “In fact, we are currently witnessing that some countries that were sanctioned for various reasons and are not able to supply parts and get maintenance services are coming to Iran and entrusting their planes to Iranian experts…. For example, Russia has suffered many sanctions in the aviation sector due to the Ukraine crisis, and for this reason, it has concluded good contracts for maintenance services with Iranian knowledge-based companies.”

Notes:

[i] In 2016 Iran sought to purchase nearly 200 passenger jets split between Boeing and Airbus. At the time, the Iranian government justified the deals as an air safety matter. However, ambitions for a new fleet faltered as seating capacity of the new jets outstripped Iranian passenger traffic projections. Critics claimed the proposed deals were meant to provide spare parts to keep Iran’s military aircraft aloft. While Boeing and Airbus planes do not contain parts suitable for jet fighters, passenger jets and military cargo planes can share many parts. Boeing ultimately cancelled its deal, while Airbus delivered only four planes.

[ii] For discussion of Iranian turbojet engine development, see: Michael Rubin, “Iran: New Heavy Engines on the Drawing Board,” OE Watch, November 2016. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-past-issues/195245/download

[iii] For discussion of the Iranian desire for Sukhoi-35s, see: Michael Rubin, “Iran Wants Sukhoi-35 Fighters From Russia,” OE Watch, 10-2022. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2022/iran-wants-sukhoi-35-fighters-from-russia/

Image information:

Image: Inspecting Airbus jet engines, April 2022
Source: https://media.mehrnews.com/d/2024/03/08/3/4894679.jpg?ts=1709893408775
Attribution: Mehr News Agency

Russia Celebrates 10th Anniversary of Crimean Annexation

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A view of the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge, linking Crimea to Russia.

“[The railway] will be another, alternative road instead of the Crimean Bridge,” said President Vladimir Putin.

On 18 March, Russians celebrated the tenth anniversary of their “reunification” with Crimea and the city of Sevastopol. One of the Kremlin’s major priorities for the peninsula was the construction of a $2.5 billion land bridge, known as the Kerch Bridge, to link the annexed region with the Russia-controlled provinces of eastern Ukraine. At 19 kilometers (11.8 miles), the bridge is Europe’s longest. The excerpted feature article in pro-Kremlin newspaper Kommersant, celebrated Russia’s modernization of the peninsula, including a gleaming new $350 million international airport at Simferopol shaped like a sea wave; the extension of a new water pipeline; a large mosque for Crimea’s Tatars; and refurbished statues to commemorate what Russians call the “Crimean Spring.” The article notes that the Kerch Bridge has come under attack by Ukraine at least twice during the special military operation. As an insurance policy—announced at a rally on Red Square to honor President Vladimir Putin’s March presidential victory and the 10th anniversary of the annexation of Crimea—Russia will restore a railway linking Rostov-on-Don with Donetsk and Mariupol, eventually reaching Sevastopol, according to the excerpted article in nationalist online newspaper Lenta.ru. The announced railway connection could suggest that the Russian authorities are concerned about the vulnerability of the Kerch Bridge to attack. Some Western analysts have called on Ukraine’s military to target it with advanced missiles[i] The railway extension project could simply be meant to symbolize the connection of mainland Russia with its annexed peninsula. Either way, the Ukrainian military will have an additional target as it seeks to take back Crimea and weaken Russia’s grip on the peninsula.

Sources:

“Крым десятилетней выдержки: Как обжился полуостров в составе России, (Crimea after 10 Years of Improvements: How the Peninsula has Taken Shape within Russia),” Kommersant.ru (center-right Kremlin newspaper), 17 March 2024. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6535646

After the “Crimean Spring” the peninsula was in a land blockade, so the construction of a transport corridor through the Kerch Strait was declared a priority. On March 19, 2014, President Vladimir Putin instructed to connect new entities with the “big land” by rail and roads. The construction of the bridge worth 228 billion rubles began in February 2016 and lasted a little more than two years. The 19 km long structure was the longest in Europe. After the start of the special operation, the crossing was twice attacked by Ukraine.

“Путин анонсировал появление альтернативы Крымскому мосту” (Putin announced the emergence of an alternative to the Crimean Bridge), Lenta.ru (right-wing nationalist online newspaper), 18 March 2024. https://lenta.ru/news/2024/03/18/putin-anonsiroval-poyavlenie-alternativy-krymskomu-mostu/

The restored railway from Rostov-on-Don to Donetsk, Mariupol and Berdyansk will be an alternative to the Crimean Bridge. Its appearance was announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin at a rally-concert in honor of the tenth anniversary of the reunification of Crimea with Russia, his words are quoted by the TASS agency.

The Head of State noted that the country will continue to restore the railway, which goes from the Rostov region through Donbass and Novorossiya. The President promised that the railway trains would soon go to Sevastopol. “And it will be another, alternative road instead of the Crimean Bridge,” he added. Putin also stressed that Russia and Crimea will go together and further hand in hand. He pointed out that this will be proved not in words, but in deeds, which will only make the country and the peninsula stronger.In November, Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin reported that the new railway from the Rostov region to Crimea, which will become an alternative to the route along the Crimean Bridge, is at the design stage.

Notes:

1 Ben Hodges, Led Klosky, Robert Person, Eric Williamson, “Putin’s Weak Link to Crimea: Kyiv Should Target the Kerch Bridge—but Needs Missiles to Take It Out,” Foreign Affairs, 5 December 2023. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/putins-weak-link-crimea

Image Information:

Image: A view of the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge, linking Crimea to Russia.
Source: Rosavtodor.ru https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Crimean_Bridge#/media/File:Крымский_мост_13_сентября_2019_года_(1).jpg
Attribution: CC By 4.0

Russia Invoking Heroic Military Heritage To Frame Current War

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The city cemetery of Kherson contains a military plot with 122 Soviet graves from the Second World War. The soldiers buried here, belonging to the 49th Guards Rifle Division and the 295th Infantry Division, fell while liberating the city in 1944.

“This is how our valiant warriors reminded the invaders that victory will be ours, just like 80 years ago.”

Russia continues to use memories of past battles and heroic sacrifice to fuel domestic support for its war in Ukraine. According to the excerpted article published by Russian news outlet RTVI, a detachment of Russian soldiers recently conducted a “daring raid” across the Dnieper River, attacking Ukrainian troops near Kherson before retreating across the Dnieper River. Although this story is barely newsworthy considering the larger and more significant battles for Mariupol, Bakhmut, and Avdeevka, it illustrates Moscow’s determination to attach Russia’s rich and heroic military history to the current conflict in Ukraine. Sources quoted in the article claim, “up to 30 [Ukrainian] personnel lost,” and that Russian troops returned “without irreparable losses.” However, the article compares the raid to the  strategic seizing of Kherson from the Germans in March 1944 by General Margelov and the 49th Guards Rifle Division. The 49th was awarded the title “Kherson” an honorific denoting the unit’s role in liberating the city from the Germans, while Margelov was awarded the title of Hero of the Soviet Union. Margolev was later instrumental in developing Soviet paratroop forces and became known as the father of Russian airborne forces.[i] The reference to Margelov in  the article was to connect Russian actions on today’s Ukrainian battlefields with past Russian battlefield heroics. This particular historical comparison augments the recent renaming of the Northern Military District to be the Leningrad Military District, and the renaming of Artic icebreakers to honor Lenin and Stalin.[ii] This is part of a broader Russian effort to use its military history, and Russia’s ongoing heroic fight for survival, to strengthen Putin’s position on Ukraine domestically.[iii] It is not for nothing that Russia refers to the Second World War as The Great Patriot War. Indeed, Russian invocation honoring the past appears to be an integral part of Moscow’s IO campaign surrounding its special military operation in Ukraine. Using Margolev as an example illustrates Russia’s position that this land has been fought for and liberated once before and belongs to Russia.

Sources:

“Сальдо рассказал о «дерзком рейде» на подконтрольный ВСУ правый берег Днепра (Saldo spoke about the “daring raid” on the right bank of the Dnieper controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces),” RTVI (Russian news service), 13 March 2024. https://rtvi.com/news/saldo-rasskazal-o-derzkom-rejde-na-podkontrolnyj-vsu-pravyj-beregdnepra/?utm_source=24smi&utm_medium=referral&utm_term=10949&utm_content=6021008&utm_campaign=14335&utm_referrer=24smi.info

On the night of March 13, an assault group of employees from the Dnepr group of troops conducted a “daring raid” on the right bank of the Dnieper River, said the governor of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo. According to him, the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered losses.

“Last night, a joint assault group of fighters from the Dnepr group of troops carried out a daring raid on the right bank of the river,” Saldo wrote in his Telegram channel.

According to the governor, marines, paratroopers and volunteers disembarked from watercraft at the base of the Antonovsky Bridge, “the enemy did not have time to react in time.” The military destroyed several positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, “including a UAV control center and an electronic warfare station, observation, communications and temporary concentration of manpower points,” Saldo wrote.

He added that the Russian military after this “managed to retreat to the left bank without irreparable losses,” and the Ukrainian side lost up to 30 military personnel.Saldo emphasized that “the landing force landed at the same place where in 1944 Margelov’s soldiers captured the first bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper, which became the key to breaking the fascist defense.” “This is how our valiant warriors reminded the invaders that victory will be ours, just like 80 years ago,” the governor is confident.

OE Insight Summary:

In effort to instill patriotism and increase domestic support for its operation in Ukraine, Russia compares the special military operation to past battlefield heroics, usually from World War II.

Notes:

[i] See: “Troops of Uncle Vasya. Why General Margelov is called the father of Airborne,” Rusreality, 27 Dec 2018. https://rusreality.com/2018/12/27/troops-of-uncle-vasya-why-general-margelov-called-the-father-of-airborne/ and also Vasily Margelov, Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Margelov

[ii] See Les Grau, “Russia Changes Arctic Icebreaker Names To Honor History,” OE Watch, 02-2024.  https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/russia-changes-arctic-icebreaker-names-to-honor-history/

[iii] Multiple western organizations track Russian use of its history to maintain domestic popular support. A RUSI publication noted that “Kremlin narratives about the Soviet Union’s role in the Second World War are uncritical, mythologised by the authorities. They have become an identifying feature of Russia’s foreign and domestic policy, based mostly around the Soviet Union’s heavy losses and military greatness.” See: Royal United Service Institute (RUSI), 27 July 2022. https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/how-russias-narratives-ukraine-reflect-its-existential-crisis

Image Information:

Image: The city cemetery of Kherson contains a military plot with 122 Soviet graves from the Second World War. The soldiers buried here, belonging to the 49th Guards Rifle Division and the 295th Infantry Division, fell while liberating the city in 1944.
Source: TracesofWar.com, https://www.tracesofwar.com/sights/9948/Soviet-War-Graves-Kherson-City-Cemetery.htm
Attribution: CC BY SA

Russia Bids Farewell to the Northern Military District

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“Given NATO’s desire to build up military potential near the Russian borders, as well as to expand the North Atlantic Alliance at the expense of Finland and Sweden, retaliatory measures are required to create an appropriate grouping of troops in Northwest Russia.”

The Russian Northern Military District is deactivated and the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts are back—albeit with changes to reflect Russia’s current security situation. According to the excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer, the restructuring of the Russian Northern Military District to the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts comes in response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.[i] With the move, the Northern Fleet, headquartered in Murmansk, is now “officially absorbed into a renewed Leningrad Military District.” St. Petersburg, Russia is again the command center of the extended Leningrad Military District.[ii] According to a defense expert quoted in the article, “as seen by Russia, it is necessary to improve the ability to fight full-scale land operations along the Finnish border and in the Baltic theatre of military operations.” The Northern Fleet will be subordinate to the Moscow Military District. These recent changes are more than just a re-ordering, as Russia continues its military reform and restructuring to give Russia an advantage in Ukraine and strengthen its position vis-a-vis a much longer frontier with NATO given the inclusion of Sweden and Finland.

Sources:

Thomas Nilsen “Putin signs northwestern regions into Leningrad military district,”The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 26 February 2024. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2024/02/putins-signs-northwestern-regions-leningrad-military-district

Vladimir Putin on Monday signed a decree reestablishing the Soviet-era Moscow and Leningrad military districts which means an end to the Northern Fleet as a military district.

With the move, the Northern Fleet is now officially absorbed into a renewed Leningrad Military District. The Northern Fleet Joint Strategic Command was given the status of a military district on 1 January 2021, a move seen to mirror the importance of Russia’s Arctic regions. In geographical size, the Northern Fleet was until today the third largest of Russia’s five military districts. At the same time, what was the Western Military District is now split into the new Moscow and Leningrad districts.

The Leningrad Military District includes the Republic of Karelia, the Komi Republic, and the oblasts of Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Vologda, Kaliningrad, Leningrad, Novgorod and Pskov, as well as the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the City of St. Petersburg.

Dictator Putin’s decree was signed the same day as the Hungarian Parliament voted to ratify Sweden as NATO’s 32nd member state.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu last December said “retaliatory measures are required” as both Finland and Sweden join NATO.

“Given NATO’s desire to build up military potential near the Russian borders, as well as to expand the North Atlantic Alliance at the expense of Finland and Sweden, retaliatory measures are required to create an appropriate grouping of troops in Northwest Russia,” Shoigu said.

Katarzyna Zysk, a professor with the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS), agrees that the ongoing restructuring is linked to the fact that Russia has got a much longer land-border with NATO.

“The dividing of the Western Military District into the Moscow Military District and Leningrad Military District, as well as possibly subordinate the Northern Fleet to the latter, is a response to NATO enlargement in Northern Europe and expected further changes in allied defense posture,” Zysk previously said to the Barents Observer. She explains that seen with Russian eyes, it is necessary to improve the ability to fight full-scale land operations along the Finnish border and in the Baltic theatre of military operations.In addition to the new Leningrad- and Moscow military districts, Putin’s decree also adds the illegally occupied Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson as part of the Southern Military District. The changes in Russia’s military districts take effect from March 1, Putin wrote in his decree.

Notes:

[i] For an additional European perspective on the restructuring of its military districts, see: “Russia Restructures Military Districts Amid Warnings of NATO War,” Euronews. 27 February 2024. https://www.euronews.com/2024/02/27/russia-restructures-military-districts-amid-warnings-of-nato-war

[ii] After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the city of Leningrad was renamed St. Petersburg, but the regional oblast designation remained Leningrad.

The Race to Incorporate Artificial Intelligence Into Attack Drones in Ukraine

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Russian military prepares Orlan-10 drones for launch during Russia’s Vostok-2018 Maneuvers.

“The Russian Army will receive weaponized drones, operated with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) – their delivery to the troops in the Special Military Operation (SMO) zone is already planned.”

The Russian Defense Ministry has announced that it will incorporate artificial intelligence (AI) into its attack drones to increase their accuracy and precision. According to the excerpted article published by the government news agency RIA News, Russia conducted around 700 successful drone attacks on Ukrainian targets in Avdiivka during the first half of February 2024. The article states that Russia plans to introduce AI to further refine its attack drones as part of a wave of military modernization incorporating more advanced technology and electronics into military systems. The aim is to allow AI to control the drones, increasing the battlefield efficacy of Russia’s drone complex. However, it is important to note that Ukraine is also working to incorporate AI capability in its attack drones. According to the second excerpted article from private Ukrainian media outlet Focus Media, Ukraine’s effort to implement AI on the battlefield has support from the West as well as internally from Ukrainian technology developers. In addition to testing AI-capable drones from the United Kingdom, the Ukrainian Minister for Technology Development reports having more than 20 different teams developing similar technologies. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry believes that AI-capable attack drones could overwhelm Russian positions, while Russia believes the same to be true in reverse. Thus far, Ukraine has developed two AI-capable drones approved for battlefield use, the Saker Scout[i] and SkyKnight2.[ii] While neither Russia nor Ukraine have fully implemented AI into their drone fleets, they are racing against each other to gain this advantage. Should Russia succeed in its goal of increased tactical efficacy in attack drones, it may be able to set a pace of sky-borne destruction that cannot be countered by the Ukrainian and Western technologies currently being employed in the war effort.[iii] AI integrated into attack drones will provide Russia with a technological advantage that is unmatched by regional forces.

Sources:

“Армию России вооружают беспилотниками с искусственным интеллектом (The Russian Army will be armed with drones with artificial intelligence),” RIA News (one of the largest Russian government news agencies), 24 February 2024. https://crimea.ria.ru/20240224/armiyu-rossii-vooruzhayut-bespilotnikami-s-iskusstvennym-intellektom-1135183675.html

The Russian Army will receive weaponized drones, operated with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) – their delivery to the troops in the Special Military Operation (SMO) zone is already planned. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced this during an inspection visit to the Russian central grouping of troops. His words are quoted by the Ministry of Defense. “We have come to this point. This is becoming a pretty serious weapon.” – said the minister, noting that the deliveries of the latest unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to Russian troops will increase the effectiveness of their application.”

… in the last two weeks of February attack drones have destroyed upwards of 700 different enemy targets in Avdiivka, including armored vehicles, artillery systems, radar facilities, and enemy manpower. In particular, during the liberation of Avdiivka the reconnaissance UAV complex, Orlan-30 [R1] , proved itself well…

Based upon the results of the report, Shoigu set the task to further strengthen the Russian central grouping of troops via electronic warfare, chiefly at the tactical level.

A few days prior, the head of the Russian government Mikhail Mishustin gave instructions to maximize the process of modernizing combat systems used as a part of the SMO and to expand their combat capabilities.

Alexander Zalata, “Украина вооружается дронами с ИИ: чем лучше обычных и когда массово появятся на фронте (Ukraine is arming itself with AI drones: better than the usual and when will they appear en masse on the front),” Focus Media (a privately-owned Ukrainian media company), 22 February 2024. https://focus.ua/digital/628357-ukraina-vooruzhaetsya-dronami-s-ii-chem-luchshe-obychnyh-i-kogda-massovo-poyavyatsya-na-fronte

More than 20 teams are already working on artificial intelligence (in drones) and many of them are already in the final stages, but before launching it must be ensured that the UAVs don’t attack everyone. 

In his article, published on the site Ukrainian Truth, the Minister for Technology Development Mikhail Fedorov, wrote that currently around 20 companies are working on developing AI for implementation in UAVs, in particular, the computer vision technologies (CV) for additional guidance. As the official explained, they will allow UAVs to analyze video streams in real-time, to find and identify objects, such as Russian vehicles, manpower, and artillery. 

At the beginning of autumn, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry stated that one of these drones, the Saker Scout, had been approved for use in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Specialists assure that thanks to the newest optical system this drone can independently recognize and record the coordinates of the enemy’s equipment… Later the Defense Ministry allowed yet another Ukrainian-made UAV to be used in the armed forces that is equipped with artificial intelligence and an autonomous flight system – the SkyKnight2. “And this will already be a decisive advantage, because then we can send a swarm of drones either on their own or with a queen, and they will perform the function of an assault unit. There are many problems, but everyone is moving in that direction,” said Alexey Teplukhin.

Notes:

[i] For further information on the AI-enabled Saker Scout drone, from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s Telegram, 4 September 2023. https://t.me/ministry_of_defense_ua/7951?single

[ii] For further information on the AI-enabled SkyKnight2 drone, from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s Telegram, 19 August 2023. https://t.me/ministry_of_defense_ua/7884

[iii] Kristen Thompson, “How the Drone War In Ukraine Is Transforming Conflict,” Council on Foreign Relations, 16 January 2024. https://www.cfr.org/article/how-drone-war-ukraine-transforming-conflict

Image Information:

Image: Russian military prepares Orlan-10 drones for launch during Russia’s Vostok-2018 Maneuvers.
Source:  
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Belarus Agrees To Host Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons

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Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko (Left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (Right) at a joint press conference.

“As a part of the response to possible threats to the military security of our country, we clearly defined and communicated the views of Belarus on the use of the tactical nuclear weapons deployed in our territory.”

Belarus has agreed to allow Russian tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) to be deployed in the country, a decision that has led it to revise its national military doctrine. According to the first excerpted article from Russian state-managed RIA News, presidents Lukashenko and Putin confirmed the successful deployment of Russian TNWs onto Belarusian soil in December 2023. Under the agreement, Russian TNWs in Belarus would remain under Russian control.[i] The placement of these weapons in Belarus would put them close enough to strike NATO members.

As a result of this move, in January 2024, Belarus revised its military doctrine, which is now known as the New Military Doctrine. Belarus’s newly revised military doctrine is unequivocal in declaring the West as an aggressor actively seeking to disrupt the integrity of Belarussian national security. Notably, the New Military Doctrine states that the Russian TNWs are an acceptable means of national defense, citing a willingness to work with Moscow to deploy these weapons against perceived threats from the West. Belarus’s New Military Doctrine underscores its willingness to use TNWs, citing reasons of national security and an explicit list of enemies, including the United States and NATO, with Poland and the Baltic states as its primary adversaries. The excerpted article from Belarus Today, a government publication closely linked to the Belarussian presidential administration, points out that the “Aggressive nature of the military policy of Western nations has ceased to be masked by formulations about the exclusively defensive orientation of their military doctrines. These national and coalition documents establish claims to global and regional dominance. They openly name states that are hostile to them, including Belarus.” For Russia, the move to station TNWs in Belarus has expanded its strategic footprint.[ii] Furthermore, as detailed in the third excerpted article, from the Belarusian state-run media organization BELTA –News of Belarus, Belarus has revised its doctrine to increase its defense by focusing on Belarussian military strategy in the likelihood of escalating conflicts with neighboring states such as Poland. Russia arming its ally with nuclear devices, Belarus revising its military doctrine to allow for deployment of Russian TNWs and explicitly naming enemies serves to further heighten regional tensions, especially between Poland and Belarus.[iii]

Sources:

RIA News, “Лукашенко назвал последствия появления ядерного оружия в Белоруссии (Lukashenko identifies the consequences of the appearance of nuclear weapons in Belarus),” RIA News (One of Russia’s largest state news agencies), 19 January 2024. https://ria.ru/20240119/belorussiya-1922400028.html

In March (of 2023) Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Moscow and Minsk had agreed to put tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. … In June the President of Russia communicated that in accordance with Belarussian-Russian plans the first nuclear charges had been delivered to Belarus. In December (of 2023), Lukashenko informed journalists that all Russian tactical nuclear weapons, agreed upon by the two countries, had been delivered to the (Belarussian) Republic, and were “in place, in good condition,” and that the military is training daily.

Nikolai Buzin, “На чем сделан акцент в проекте новой Военной доктрины Беларуси (What is the emphasis of the New Military Doctrine of Belarus),” Belarus Today (official government news channel), 24 January 2024. https://www.sb.by/articles/v-mire-uvazhayut-silnykh.html

“As a part of the assessment of trends in the development of the military-political situation (we have) clearly named the sources of military threat to Belarus. (These are) the United States, NATO, Poland and the Baltic nations. In particular, article 9 states that the “aggressive nature of the military policy of Western nations has ceased to be masked by formulations about the exclusively defensive orientation of their military doctrines. These national and coalition documents establish claims to global and regional dominance. They openly name states that are hostile to them…, which includes the Republic Belarus.”

“Какой будет новая Военная доктрина Беларуси. Хренин раскрыл подробности документа (What will be the new Military doctrine of Belarus. Khrenin revealed the details of the document),” BELTA – News of Belarus (official government news channel), 6 January 2024. https://www.belta.by/society/view/kakoj-budet-novaja-voennaja-doktrina-belarusi-hrenin-raskryl-podrobnosti-dokumenta-610049-2024/

Among important innovations, (Viktor Khrenin) describes, for instance, targeting, that is, a clear indication of the sources of military threats to Belarus. At the same time, unlike NATO countries, which in their war documents explicitly name (their) enemies, listing specific countries, Belarus states likely sources of threats. “We expressly name sources of threats and from the countries which they emanate.” – explained Viktor Khrenin. He also brought attention to the strengthened concepts of national security. “For existing challenges of military security there is a clearly formulated line of threats.” The head of the Ministry of Defense explained. “Based on this, we have formulated measures that the state will take in case of risks, challenges, and threats. We have clearly defined what government agencies should do and what functions they will perform. As a part of the response to possible threats to the military security of our country, we clearly defined and communicated the views of Belarus on the use of the tactical nuclear weapons deployed in our territory.”

Notes:

[i] TNWs are designed for the battlefield and can greatly range in impact. A tactical nuclear weapon is any nuclear weapon not classified as “strategic” by U.S.-Russian arms control agreements, such as SALT. For more information, see: “What are ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons?,” The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), https://www.icanw.org/what_are_tactical_nuclear_weapons; Most TNWs have a maximum range of 500km if land-based or 600km if airborne. For additional information, see: “Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNW),” Nuclear Threat Initiative, 30 April 2002. https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/tactical-nuclear-weapons/

[ii] Previous reporting notes that the withdrawal of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons would only be negotiable if the United States were to completely withdraw American nuclear arms from the European continent. See: RIA News (one of Russia’s largest state news agencies), 31 July 2023. https://ria.ru/20230731/tyao-1887278977.html

[iii] For the Polish perspective on Belarus’s tactical nuclear weapons, see: Andrezj Wilk and Piotr Zochowski, “Russian nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus: the consequences,” Center for Eastern Studies (Warsaw based think tank) 6 June 2023. https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2023-06-06/russian-nuclear-weapons-deployed-belarus-consequences

Image Information:

Image: Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko (Left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (Right) at a joint press conference.
Source: Kremlin.ru, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66648
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Russia Developing Sixth-Generation Combat Aircraft

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Rendition of BAE Systems Tempest 6th generation fighter.

“Currently, we are thinking about the concept of a sixth-generation aircraft, conducting search research, exchanging views with military specialists. Such an aircraft should appear sometime by 2050, but already now it is necessary to understand what the armed conflicts of the future will be like.” – Evgeny Fedosov, Scientific Director of the State Research Institute of Aviation Systems.”

Russia hopes to have a sixth-generation combat aircraft prototype by 2050, according to the excerpted analysis of a report written by Evgeny Fedosov of the Russian Academy of Sciences published by state news agency TASS.  Sixth-generation aircraft, still in their early phase of development, are expected to have advanced digital features like artificial intelligence (AI) integration and data fusion, as well as other enhanced command, control, and communication (C3) capabilities. The aircraft would be similar to fifth-generation combat aircraft—designed for greater air-to-air capability, battlefield survivability in anti-access/area denial environments, and ground support—but with greater focus on enhanced integration of AI systems and less focus on close-in dogfighting, which is a less common feature of current and future war scenarios.  This is not the first time that the Russians have announced plans to develop a sixth-generation combat aircraft. TASS first reported these developments in 2017[i] and the article touts Russia’s Su-57 [RG1] Felon as “almost” possessing capabilities or easy upgradable features to become a sixth-generation aircraft. These capabilities include supercruise (i.e. sustained supersonic flight without use of an afterburner) and advanced avionics (i.e. an aircraft’s communications, navigation, and flight control systems). 

The second excerpted article from the The EurAsian Times is a commentary on Fedosov’s report. It notes that AI technology will provide the aircraft with advanced digital and C3 capabilities, as well as data fusion and remote or autonomous piloting. Fedosov expects the pilot to be integrated into the airframe, with cockpits and helmet-mounted displays allowing for 360-degree vision similar to the F-35 [RG2] . Stealth, as before, will continue to play a huge role in sixth-generation aircraft capabilities. Several other nations have announced plans to develop sixth-generation combat aircraft to include Turkey[ii] as well as the UK, Italy, and Japan, which announced a joint plan to develop a similarly advanced fighter.[iii] The Russian military’s development of advanced combat aircraft has been notorious for delays, cost overruns, and faulty features evident in the deployment of its fifth-generation Su-57 aircraft. Discussing the aircraft, Fedosov acknowledged the complication of designing future combat aircraft as they become larger, heavier, and costlier to make. The TASS article suggests that the U.S. Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance plan to roll out a sixth-generation combat aircraft to replace its F-22 Raptor fighters by 2030 is unlikely to be eclipsed by the Russians anytime soon.[iv] The report further highlights divisions among the engineers, strategists, and aviators of Russia’s ministry of defense, over which capabilities to emphasize. The main divide is whether to focus on producing fighters designed for beyond visual range engagement or models (not unlike its previous Sukhoi or Mikoyan versions) capable of close-range dogfights, but there is also major disagreement over whether future models should be manned or unmanned.[v]

Sources:

“Боевой самолет шестого поколения может появиться в России к 2050 году (A Sixth-Generation Combat Aircraft may Appear in Russia by 2050),” TASS (Russian state news agency), 25 February 2024. https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/20081017

A sixth-generation combat aircraft may appear in Russia by 2050, now there is an exchange of views with the military regarding its concept. This is written in a column for TASS by the scientific director of the State Research Institute of Aviation Systems (GosNIIAS), Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Evgeny Fedosov.

“Currently, we are thinking about the concept of a sixth-generation aircraft, conducting search research, exchanging views with military specialists. Such an aircraft should appear sometime by 2050, but already now it is necessary to understand what the armed conflicts of the future will be like,” he writes.

Touching upon the design of future aircraft, Fedosov suggested that “to go further according to the logic of complication is a vicious practice.” He also pointed out that combat aircraft are becoming more complex from generation to generation and, as a result, becoming heavier. “And the larger and heavier the plane, the more expensive it is,” the academician concluded.

GosNIIAS is a leading center in the development of on-board aviation systems and equipment. The founder of modeling methods for designing automatic systems of any degree of complexity. The Institute participates in the creation of aircraft at all stages: from the development of the concept of aircraft creation to modernization during operation. 

Ashish Dangwal, “Russia’s 6th-Gen Fighter Jet to be Deployed by 2050; Will not Dump Pilots for Robots – GosNIIAS,” The EurAsian Times (a privately owned digital news site specializing in defense and global news) 26 February 2024. https://www.eurasiantimes.com/russias-6th-gen-fighter-jet-to-be-deployed-by-2050/

According to state media TASS, Russia is actively setting its sights on developing a sixth-generation fighter jet that could be deployed by 2050.

The development was disclosed by Evgeny Fedosov, Scientific Director of the State Research Institute of Aviation Systems (GosNIIAS) and a distinguished member of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Fedosov outlined the initiative in a column published by TASS, shedding light on the ongoing discussions and research surrounding the conceptualization of the sixth-generation aircraft.

According to Fedosov, the development process involves extensive consultation and collaboration with military specialists to anticipate the demands of future armed conflicts.

“Currently, we are thinking about the concept of a sixth-generation aircraft, conducting research and exchanging views with military specialists,” he said. Fedosov, however, highlighted a critical concern regarding the design complexity of next-generation combat aircraft, describing it as a potentially “vicious practice.”

He pointed out that with each successive iteration of military aviation, the size and weight tend to increase, inevitably impacting the cost of such equipment.

He also added that the sixth-generation combat aviation group will include both manned aircraft and unmanned vehicles.

“There is an opinion that the air group should be mixed and consist of drones and manned aircraft. Such a mixed park, in principle, can exist,” Fedosov remarked. He said that the size and speed of the drones would enable them to function as wingmen within a group.

Building upon the success of fifth-generation platforms, sixth-generation fighters would be designed to adapt to evolving trends in aerial warfare, where traditional dogfighting scenarios are giving way to long-range engagements utilizing beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile capabilities.

In recent years, numerous countries have declared their intention to embark on the development of indigenous sixth-generation aircraft programs, illustrating a global push toward advancing military aviation capabilities.

The United States Air Force is a key player in this arena, actively advancing its efforts to develop a next-generation fighter jet through the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) stealth fighter program.

Multinational initiatives have also emerged, reflecting a strategic approach to leveraging shared resources and expertise while mitigating development costs.

…

China is also believed to be in the process of developing its sixth-generation fighter jet, having previously demonstrated its capabilities with the construction of the fifth-generation J-20 fighter jet.On the other hand, Russia has encountered difficulties in deploying its stealth fighter jet, the Su-57, in large numbers. Moreover, discussions concerning the development of a sixth-generation fighter jet have previously faced obstacles.

Notes:

 [i] “Russia may upgrade advanced Su-57 aircraft to 6th-generation fighter jet,” TASS, 1 November 2017. https://tass.com/defense/973625

 [ii] Dilara Aslan Ozer, Türkiye starts works on AI-backed 6th-generation fighter jet,” Daily Sabah, 12 January 2024. https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/turkiye-starts-works-on-ai-backed-6th-generation-fighter-jet

[iii] Josh Luckenbaugh, “UK-Italy-Japan Cite Steady Progress Developing Next-Gen Jet Fighter,” National Defense, 30 October 2023. https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2023/10/30/uk-italy-japan-cite-steady-progress-developing-next-gen-jet-fighter

[iv] Ryan Finnerty, “US defense spending bill could expose new details of sixth generation fighter development,” FlightGlobal, 19 December 2023. https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing/us-defence-spending-bill-could-expose-new-details-of-sixth-generation-fighter-development/156256.article

[v] Boyko Nikolov, “Su-57 Felon is a step towards the 6th-gen, but Russians are at odds,” BulgarianMilitary.com, 24 November 2023. https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/11/24/su-57-felon-is-a-step-towards-the-6th-gen-but-russians-are-at-odds/

Image information:

Image: Rendition of BAE Systems Tempest 6th generation fighter
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BAE_Systems_Tempest#/media/File:Team_tempest.jpg
Attribution: Fair Use

Russian Engineer Troops Gain Assault Combat Mission

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Universal Armored Engineer Vehicle (UBIM)

“The engineer troops are being transformed from a support role into an independent strike force capable of participating in a modern war.”

In most militaries, engineer units are combat enablers (support units) for maneuver units (infantry, armor, etc). Due to Russia’s combat experience in Ukraine, this may be changing, as Russia is envisioning engineer units assuming a combat role, capable of accomplishing independent assault operations in addition to typical engineer missions. The accompanying excerpted article from the Russian newspaper Izvestia attributes this change to the fact that Russian troops have frequently had to assault heavily fortified areas.  The article also delves into how this reform will be implemented, to include organizational changes such as forming “assault detachments” in engineer units and engineer reconnaissance-assault brigades in combined arms armies, as well as the addition of new types of equipment such as the universal armored engineer vehicle. If this effort is perceived as a success, it is possible other militaries will consider emulating such reforms.

Source:

Alexey Mikhailov, Yulia Leonova, Andrey Fedorov, “В дело с техникой: инженерные войска переориентируют на штурмовые действия: Их оснащают боевыми машинами для разведки и разрушения долговременных укреплений (In business with technology: The engineer troops are reoriented to assault operations:), Izvestiya (major Russian daily newspaper), 23 January 2024. https://iz.ru/1638123/aleksei-mikhailov-iuliia-leonova-andrei-fedorov/v-delo-s-tekhnikoi-inzhenernye-voiska-pereorientiruiut-na-shturmovye-deistviia

The Russian Ministry of Defense has approved a program to increase the combat capabilities of engineer regiments and brigades – this year they will get new units equipped with specialized assault and reconnaissance equipment…We are talking about universal armored engineer vehicles (UBIM) [Универсальная бронированная инженерная машина (УБИМ)]

From the first months of the special military operation, Russian troops were faced with the need to regularly storm fortified areas of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.[i]  Particularly strong field fortifications were encountered in the Donbass that were erected over the course of eight years. This required Russian troops to adapt to new conditions and change tactics. Specialized assault detachments were formed with weapons and equipment to break through enemy defenses. Since last year, the military department decided to scale up this experience and create [engineer] reconnaissance-assault brigades in combined arms armies.In recent years, the Ministry of Defense has been carrying out a large-scale reform of the engineer troops. The engineer troops are being transformed from a support role into an independent strike force capable of participating in a modern war. The actions of the engineers are no longer limited to the construction of field fortifications, route clearance, and bridge building — now they also storm fortified areas, covertly place mines, and quickly conduct ​​explosive ordinance disposal.

Note:

[i] Moscow uses the term spetsial’naya voyennaya operatsiya (“special military operation”) or spetsoperatsiya (“special operation”) to describe its campaign in Ukraine.

Image Information:

Image: Universal Armored Engineer Vehicle (UBIM)
Source: https://www.vitalykuzmin.net/Military/ARMY-2021-Static-part-3/i-PfWbh5c/A 
Attribution: Vitaly Kuzmin, CC BY-SA 4.0

Russia Increases Defense Spending for 2024

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Early variant of the 152mm self-propelled gun 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV on parade in Moscow, 2015. The Koalitsiya-SV is set to be fielded in 2024.

“It became clear that a large-scale war requires a lot of equipment. It needs to be constantly improved, adapting to new weapons that the enemy has, damaged vehicles need to be repaired somewhere. And the priority in rearmament shifted towards the army.”

According to the 10 January excerpted article from the Russian state-owned domestic news outlet RIA Novosti, Russia will increase its defense spending in keeping with the release of Russia’s federal budget in October 2023 that dedicated “almost 11 trillion rubles” ($117 billion) to the armed forces.[i] The article notes plans to grow the armed forces by nearly half a million men, while most of the funds will be earmarked for weapons and equipment, whose procurement is informed by lessons learned in Ukraine. The emphasis is on ground forces but includes new spending on air and naval assets. As it articulates: “In recent decades, the ground forces of many countries have been financed on a residual basis—the United States relied on the Air Force and Navy. Russia was no exception in this regard, but the Ukrainian conflict put everything in place.”

Increasing the quantity and quality of its armor, tanks, and artillery is a primary focus, according to the article. Russia will ramp up production of improved variants of the T-90M Proryv [RG1] , T-72B3M [RG2] , and T-80BVM [RG3] main battle tanks. Artillery is also being updated with the introduction of the upgraded 152-mm Msta-S [RG4] self-propelled gun[ii] and the latest Malva [RG5] -wheeled howitzer, which entered service in late 2023.[iii] Russia’s newest artillery system, the 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV [RG6] , is projected to be fielded in 2024. The weapon systems and upgrades reflect immediate application of lessons learned from the Ukrainian battlefield. Ukraine seemed to have an edge when NATO-manufactured long-range weapons arrived on the battlefield and Russian units were forced to move their command and logistic lines farther from the front lines. The article notes that the Koalitsiya-SV “will become the longest-range weapon in the Russian Army, able to fire a “high-explosive fragmentation projectile at a range of 40 kilometers, and a guided projectile at 70 kilometers…more than enough [distance] for effective counter-battery warfare.” Drones are also featured in Russia’s defense plans for this year.[iv] The “long-awaited Izdeliye-53, another version of the Lancet [RG7] kamikaze drone,” is projected to be fielded in 2024. Like long-range artillery, the Izdeliye-53 could have an immediate battlefield impact as it is said to have a range of more than 60 kilometers. The much-publicized increase in Russian defense spending, and the types of weapons Russia will field, based on lessons learned in Ukraine, could put additional pressure on Ukraine and its Western partners just to maintain the status quo.

Sources:

Andrey Kots, “Приоритеты на будущее. Чем вооружат армию России в 2024-м (Priorities for the future. What will the Russian army be armed with in 2024?)” RIA Novosti (Russian state-owned domestic news outlet), 9 January 2024. https://ria.ru/20240109/perevooruzhenie-1917044593.html?in=t

… Earlier, back in January 2023, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced an increase in the size of the army to one and a half million people by 2026.

…

At the end of October, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced the total amount of defense spending in 2024 – almost 11 trillion rubles. The lion’s share will go to the purchase of military equipment. The domestic defense industry has to work hard: it is necessary to saturate not only new units, but also units on the front line with everything necessary.

“Taking into account additional budgetary allocations in 2024, the volume of purchases and repairs of weapons and military equipment will increase,” Sergei Shoigu said at the end of November. “In the current conditions, it is necessary to ensure an advanced supply of weapons, military and special equipment to the troops, as well as to increase the production capabilities of enterprises military-industrial complex for the production and repair of the most popular models.”

In recent decades, the ground forces of many countries have been financed on a residual basis – the United States relied on the Air Force and Navy. Russia was no exception in this regard, but the Ukrainian conflict put everything in place. It became clear that a large-scale war requires a lot of equipment. It needs to be constantly improved, adapting to new weapons that the enemy has, damaged vehicles need to be repaired somewhere. And the priority in rearmament shifted towards the army.

The Ground Forces will continue to receive modern main battle tanks. First of all, the T-90M Proryv, T-72B3M and T-80BVM, which have proven themselves well in combat. New tanks are significantly different from pre-war ones. They received additional armor, equipment to suppress UAVs, and modern communications equipment. Many are equipped with a factory “visor” – a lattice superstructure over the turret with dynamic protection modules for defense against “roof-killing ATGMs” and kamikaze drones.

Motorized rifle units will receive vehicles, BTR-82A [RG1] armored personnel carriers, BMP-3 [RG2] infantry fighting vehicles and modernized BMP-2M [RG3] . The latter began to enter the troops only in 2020. Their difference from the early “twos” is the Berezhok combat module, equipped with a 30-mm automatic cannon, an automatic grenade launcher, a machine gun and four Kornet ATGMs. The vehicle has an updated fire control system, ensuring round-the-clock use, automatic target tracking and increased shooting accuracy.

The artillerymen will receive 152-mm Msta-S [R4]  self-propelled guns and the latest Malva wheeled howitzers, which first entered service with the troops in the fall of 2023. What’s even more important: next year, the promising self-propelled gun “Coalition-SV,” which the troops have been waiting for a long time, will go into serial production. It will become the longest-range weapon in the Russian army… .In 2024, the long-awaited Izdeliye-53, another version of the famous Lancet kamikaze drone, should go into service with the troops. All that is known about the new UAV is that its range is over 60 kilometers and it will be designed to operate in a “flock.”

Notes:

[i] For more information regarding defense spending within Russia’s new federal budget, see: Dodge Billingsley, “Russia’s Federal Budget Puts Economy on War Footing,” OE Watch, 01-2024. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/russias-federal-budget-puts-economy-on-war-footing/

[ii] For a look back at Russian efforts to increase the effective firing range of the Msta, see: Charles Bartles, “New Artillery Rounds Will Extend Russian Artillery Range,” OE Watch, January 2018. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-singular-format/294224

[iii] The Msta-S is an old system introduced in 1989. For information on recent modifications and upgrades, see: “Artillery of the future: modernization of the ACS 2S19 “Msta-S” and its prospects,” Military Review, 16 December 2023. https://military-review.com/12479016-artillery-of-the-future-modernization-of-the-acs-2s19-msta-s-and-its-prospects; the 2S43 Malva wheeled artillery is also a legacy system but previous Russian claims refer to the new variant as the Russian HYMARS, although the effective range as been disputed. See: Ellie Cook, “What Is 2S43 Malva? Soviet Self-Propelled Howitzer Dubbed ‘Russian HYMARS’,” Newsweek, 17 August 2023. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-military-2s43-malva-howitzer-ukraine-himars-artillery-1820411

[iv] Drones, or UAVs, have become ubiquitous in the war in Ukraine at every level. For additional insight on Russia’s use of drones, see: Charles Bartles, “Russia Plans To Add Remote Mining UAV Platoons To Engineer Units,” OE Watch, 09-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/russia-plans-to-add-remote-mining-uav-platoons-to-engineer-units/; see also, Dodge Billingsley, “Russia Details Plan To Overcome Military Drone Deficiencies,” OE Watch, 01-2024. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/russia-details-plan-to-overcome-military-drone-deficiencies/

Image Information:

Image: Early variant of the 152mm self-propelled gun 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV on parade in Moscow, 2015. The Koalitsiya-SV is set to be fielded in 2024.
Source: Vitaly Kuzman, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S35_Koalitsiya-SV – /media/File:9may2015Moscow-35_(cropped).jpg
Attribution: CCA BY-SA 4.0

Ecuador Faces Reprisals for Indirect Support to Ukraine

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A Russian military Mi helicopter of the kind Ecuador was prepared to donate to Ukraine.

“The decision unleashed the fury of the Kremlin, which defended the parts sold to Ecuador years ago.”

Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, Latin American and Caribbean countries have been reticent to get involved.[i] Specifically, they have resisted calls to send Russian military equipment stockpiles to support either side of the conflict. For this reason, Ecuador stood out when, following the recent declaration of an “internal armed conflict,” Spanish wire agency EFE reports that President Noboa expressed his country’s desire to trade Soviet-era military equipment for a $200 million security package of new equipment from the United States. This security package is meant to bolster the government’s position in the current domestic security crisis.[ii] The Soviet-era equipment, six Mi-8 [RG1] helicopters, a rocket launcher, and anti-aircraft systems, from previous arms deals with Russia would then be transferred to Ukraine.  To avoid provoking the ire of Russia by signaling overt support for Ukraine’s cause, EFE reports that the Noboa government has referred to this equipment, as inoperative “junk.” Nevertheless, Russia responded angrily and referred to original contracts for the equipment, which allegedly prohibit the export of this equipment to third parties. In addition, following Noboa’s announcement, according to the second excerpted article from the Argentine regional outlet Infobae, Russia’s phytosanitary agency halted imports of Ecuadorian bananas, claiming an uptick in flies. The article also notes that Russia is Ecuador’s second-largest customer for banana exports, and a halt in Russia’s imports of Ecuadorian bananas will hurt Ecuador economically and force it to quickly divert exports to other countries. While the quantity and types of weapons Ecuador plans to send to the United States (and eventually on to Ukraine) will not, by themselves, change Ukraine’s fortunes on the battlefield, the decision is a potential watershed moment for Latin America because its governments have generally pursued a studious policy of “non-alignment,” with several regional leaders declining to send Soviet-era equipment in their stockpiles.[iii] It is possible that Ecuador may pave the way for the region to assist Ukraine despite the threat of economic reprisals.

Sources:

“EE.UU. confirma que equipos soviéticos de Ecuador irán a Ucrania para guerra contra Rusia (The US confirms that Soviet equipment from Ecuador will go to Ukraine for war against Russia),” EFE (Spanish wire agency), 8 February 2024. https://es-us.finanzas.yahoo.com/noticias/ee-uu-confirma-equipos-sovi%C3%A9ticos-215123186.html

The president of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, described the equipment as ‘scrap’ so his country will receive new equipment worth about 200 million dollars…the Russian government transmitted to the Ecuadorian government its position regarding these supplies, ‘indicating the specific points of the agreements and contracts’ linked to Russian military supplies to Ecuador that the South American nation would violate if it re-exported them.

“Ecuador se ve obligado a buscar nuevos mercados para sus bananas tras el cese de exportaciones a Rusia (Ecuador is forced to look for new markets for its bananas after the cessation of exports to Russia),” Infobae (Argentine regional outlet), 14 February 2024. https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2024/02/14/ecuador-se-ve-obligado-a-buscar-nuevos-mercados-para-sus-bananas-tras-el-cese-de-exportaciones-a-rusia/ 

The decision unleashed the fury of the Kremlin, which defended the parts sold to Ecuador years ago…The measure ordered by Vladimir Putin will considerably affect Ecuadorian exporters and, consequently, the profits that the Ecuadorian government receives from bananas. Now, Noboa must campaign to relocate one of its top products in the world, outside of nations that interpose their political interests on commercial ones. At the same time, the president continues with his war against gangs, launched in early January, which he hopes to promote with new equipment.

Notes:

[i] For greater detail on how the region has remained “non-aligned,” see: Ryan C. Berg, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Juliana Rubio, Henry Ziemer, and Rubi Bledsoe, “A Hesitant Hemisphere: How Latin America has been Shaped by the War in Ukraine,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, 27 February 2023. https://www.csis.org/analysis/hesitant-hemisphere-how-latin-america-has-been-shaped-war-ukraine

[ii] For more, see: Ryan Berg “Rising Violence Prompts Ecuador To Declare ‘Internal Armed Conflict’,” OE Watch, 02-2024. Need Link

[iii] For more on Latin America’s response to the war in Ukraine, read: Ryan C. Berg, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Juliana Rubio, Henry Ziemer, and Rubi Bledsoe, “Two Years Later: LAC and Russia’s War in Ukraine,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, February 22, 2024, https://www.csis.org/analysis/two-years-later-lac-and-russias-war-ukraine.

Image Information:

Image: A Russian military Mi helicopter of the kind Ecuador was prepared to donate to Ukraine.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mil_Mi-8MTV-5_Hip_82_yellow_%288587491042%29.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 2.0 DEED