Category Archives: OE Watch

Russia Offers Financial Incentives To Meet Troop Recruiting Targets

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Russian soldiers fast-rope from helicopter during Centre 2019 strategic command-and-staff exercises.

“Russians are actively signing contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry for service in the special operation zone.”

In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for the “mobilization” of an additional 180,000 new service members. However, the meaning of “mobilization” appears to be a question of semantics: Russian media has reported that there is no talk in Moscow of a partial mobilization similar to the one conducted in the autumn of 2022, which led to tens of thousands of Russians fleeing the country. According to the first excerpted article from the pro-Kremlin Russian news source Izvestia, the press secretary for the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, stated in November that “there is no talk of mobilization,” instead claiming that Russians are actively signing contracts for service in Ukraine.

Russia is mobilizing troops, not by traditional forced means, but financial inducements are now a key component of Russia’s recruitment tactics. According to the second excerpted article from the Russian news agency Interfax, a new debt law is the most recent incentive passed to encourage participation in the military. The new law allows up to 10 million rubles ($96,000) of outstanding debt facing collection, previously incurred by a recruit and/or his or her spouse, to be written off if a recruit joins the force.[i] Further, according to the third excerpted article from the Russian news tabloid Ragnum News Agency, on 25 November, Russia extended a one-time 400,000 ruble ($3,800) payment to those who sign a contract with the Russian Guard (Rosgvardiya) “for participation in the special military operation” in Ukraine.

The combination of financial incentives, which amounts to a windfall for many Russians, dead or alive, may well help the Russian armed forces continue to meet its recruiting goals, extending the war in Ukraine.[ii]

Sources:

“Песков сообщил об отсутствии планов по проведению мобилизации в России (Peskov reported no plans to conduct mobilization in Russia),” Izvestia (pro-Kremlin Russian news source), 23 November 2024. https://iz.ru/1795673/2024-11-23/peskov-soobshchil-ob-otsutstvii-planov-po-provedeniiu-mobilizatcii-v-rossii

Russia is not planning to conduct mobilization. This was announced on November 23 by the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov.

The official representative of the Kremlin added that at present, Russians are actively signing contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry for service in the special operation zone.

“There are a lot of these people — hundreds of people sign contracts every day and go to a special military operation,” Peskov noted.

Assembly point: Putin announced the completion of mobilization within two weeks

At the same time, the president emphasized that the conscription process needs to be improved.

Earlier, on October 27, when the agency asked whether there were enough volunteers and whether mobilization might be required, Peskov also answered that there was no talk of mobilization in Russia.

Before that, in May, Peskov stated that there was no need for mobilization in Russia, commenting on an article in the Financial Times (FT) that the country was actively recruiting volunteer contract soldiers.

“Правительство доработало программу списания кредитов военнослужащих (The government has finalized the program for writing off military personnel’s loans),” Interfax (Russian news agency), 15 November 2024. https://www.interfax.ru/russia/992965

The government proposes to write off overdue loans of up to 10 million rubles for which judicial collection has already begun for mobilized personnel, conscripts (except for cadets) and military contract soldiers during military service to perform the tasks of the Air Defense Forces, from December 1, 2024, follows from the amendments submitted to the State Duma.

We are talking about writing off obligations under loan agreements that were concluded before December 1, 2024 and for which a court order on debt collection has already entered into legal force or enforcement proceedings have been initiated. Up to 10 million rubles can be written off for a certain category of citizens – these are conscripts for military service upon mobilization; conscripted military personnel (except for cadets of military schools or universities); other citizens who are not undergoing military service, but who concluded a contract for military service for a period of one year or more to perform the tasks of a special military operation no earlier than December 1, 2024. The write-off also applies to spouses of this category of citizens.

“The obligations of a citizen called up for military service upon mobilization into the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, a serviceman who has served in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation by conscription (except for a serviceman holding a military position as a cadet in a military professional educational organization, a military educational organization of higher education under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation), another citizen who is not serving in the military, who concluded no earlier than December 1, 2024, a contract for military service in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation for a period of one year or more to perform the tasks of a special military operation, and (or) his (her) spouse, arising from a loan agreement, if before December 1, 2024 a judicial act on the collection of debt on these obligations entered into legal force and (or) in order to fulfill such obligations, a writ of execution was issued to a bank or other credit organization and (or) enforcement proceedings were initiated based on the applications of the said organizations (the writ of execution was presented for execution), shall be terminated in parts, not exceeding in total 10 million rubles, from the date of conclusion of the said contract,” the text of the amendment says.

“Путин распространил на Росгвардию разовую выплату в 400 тыс. Рублей (Putin Extends One-Time Payment of 400,000 Rubles to the Russian Guard),” Regnum News Agency (Russian tabloid), 25 November 2024. https://regnum.ru/news/3931489?utm_source=iz&utm_campaign=vidjet&utm_medium=8&utm_content=3931489

The Russian Guard has been extended a one-time payment of ₽400,000 upon signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense.

Russian President Vladimir Putin extended the provision on a one-time payment of 400,000 rubles to the Russian Guard upon signing a contract for participation in a special military operation. The corresponding decree was published on November 25.

“This decree shall enter into force on the date of its signing and shall apply to legal relations that arose from August 1, 2024,” the document says.

Putin introduced a payment of 400 thousand rubles for participants in the special operation who signed a contract with the Ministry of Defense for a period of one year or more in August. Foreign citizens who decided to go to the combat zone also received the right to it.

The press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov explained that the payment is aimed at supporting the fighters of the special operation. He emphasized that this does not mean a change in the goals of the SVO.

Notes:

[i] In April 2024, the Russian government clarified its position vis-a-vie Russian banks regarding debt and interest reduction for those serving in Ukraine. As per when the article was written, the price tag for the debt forgiveness would be in the neighborhood of 11 billion rubles, half of which will be paid by the banks. The other half would be paid for by the government, adding an additional 5-6 billion rubles to defense expenditures. See: “Принят закон о компенсации банкам 50% потерь от списания процентов по кредитам военных (A law has been adopted to compensate banks for 50% of losses from writing off interest on military loans),” Interfax (Russian news agency), 2 April 2024. https://www.interfax.ru/russia/953642

[ii] For reporting on the positive economic impact of financial payment to family members of deceased service members, see: Georgi Kantchev and Matthew Luxmoore, “The ‘Deathonomics’ Powering Russia’s War Machine,” The Wall Street Journal, 13 November 2024. https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-ukraine-war-military-death-pay-6cfe936e?mod=world_lead_pos3

Image Information:

Image: Russian soldiers fast-rope from helicopter during Centre 2019 strategic command-and-staff exercises.
Source: Russian Office of the President, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61584
Attribution: Public Domain

Russia and Belarus To Strengthen Security Guarantees

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The Polish-Belarusian border, photo taken on 11 November 2021.

“This is also a very important strategic document. Work on these two documents has been completed, and we plan, together with the Secretariat of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, to submit [them] for approval by the heads of our states at the Supreme State Council.”

Russia and Belarus have nearly finalized a “Treaty on Security Guarantees of the Union State,” according to an interview with Secretary of the Security Council of the Republic Alexander Wolfovich in Izvestia, a pro-Kremlin Russian newspaper. The document, which will be sent for ratification by the Supreme State Council in December, will replace the 1999 union concept. Belarus will receive substantial security guarantees, including the use of nuclear and conventional weapons, “due to external threats.”

The intention of the original treaty was to achieve a federation not unlike the Soviet Union, whereby Belarus and Russia would share a head of state, legislature, flag, currency, coat of arms, anthem, and other insignia of a unified state.[i] The full extent of the Union State never came to fruition, largely because both leaders of the federation, Presidents Boris Yeltsin (Russia) and Alexander Lukashenko (Belarus), quickly lost interest in the provisions of the treaty because both feared it would weaken their own power. Belarus suspended the customs union a few years later, and they never developed a common currency. 

The revised treaty comes amid heightened tensions along Belarus’ borders with Ukraine and Poland, due to a migrant crisis (involving asylum-seekers from the wider Middle East),[ii] nuclear drills conducted on Belarusian territory summer 2024,[iii] and rumors that Belarusian soldiers may be sent to fight in Ukraine.[iv] The security guarantees of the new document suggest that an attack against Belarus, conventional or otherwise, would be considered an attack against Russia.

Interestingly, the original intention of signing the 1999 treaty was economic, not security related. Back then, commercial and economic interests trumped security concerns.[v] Going back to the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia has been Belarus’ largest economic and political partner. Vladimir Putin has sought greater integration of the two countries’ economies. As reported by Izvestia, trade between the two neighbors in the first half of 2024 ($25 billion) was up 6.4 percent from the same time last year, with some 133 investment projects underway in the fields of agriculture, energy, tourism, IT, medicine, and pharmaceuticals, according to Deputy Minister of Economic Development of Russia Dmitry Volvach. The revised treaty should strengthen economic integration and trade between the two neighbors.

More importantly, the revised Union State treaty signals greater security cooperation and guarantees between Minsk and Moscow. Belarus has long acted as a strategic buffer zone between Russia and NATO. Although President Alexander Lukashenko sought greater autonomy after the 2014 annexation of Crimea, a disputed election in 2020 and a popular uprising forced the Belarusian leader to seek greater integration with Russia. The revised Union State treaty will further isolate Belarus from Europe and make it more dependent on Russia for its security, both internal and external. While the long-term consequences of the revised Union State remain uncertain, given that Russia and Belarus have both sought to maintain their post-Soviet era borders and independence, greater military cooperation between Belarus and Russia is expected, including closer economic and potential territorial integration and even Belarus playing a larger role in the war in Ukraine, beyond just hosting Russian nuclear and military assets.

Sources:

Elizaveta Borisenko, “Взаимное действие: Москва и Минск подготовили договор о гарантиях безопасности (Union proposal: Moscow and Minsk strengthen cooperation against Western pressure),” Izvestia (a pro-Kremlin Russian newspaper), 11 November 2024. https://iz.ru/1787861/elizaveta-borisenko/vzaimnoe-deistvie-moskva-i-minsk-podgotovili-dogovor-o-garantiah-bezopasnosti

According to [Wolfovich], the provisions of the document will be published in the near future. The document will include the principle of the use of nuclear and conventional weapons, as well as other methods of protecting the Union State. “What our president recently said, what Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin recently said that, God forbid, there will be some aggressions towards the Republic of Belarus, is all true. If today it has the character of protecting the joint and protection of Belarus through the deployment of nuclear weapons on our territory, de facto in December, by the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty on the establishment of the Union State, this treaty will already be legally signed,” Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov said earlier.

Russia previously decided to amend the nuclear doctrine, which was last updated in 2020. In particular, we are talking about the expansion of scenarios in which the Russian authorities reserve the right to use nuclear weapons. In the updated version of the document, aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of nuclear, is proposed to be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation. In addition, there are provisions that concern Belarus.

“We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression against Russia and Belarus as a member of the Union State. All these issues have been agreed with the Belarusian side and the President of Belarus. Including if the enemy, using conventional weapons, creates a critical threat to our sovereignty,” Vladimir Putin said on September 25.

As for the new concept of the security of the Union State, which will replace the document adopted back in 1999, it will enshrine a provision on joint counteraction to the policies of the United States, unfriendly NATO states and the European Union to achieve strategic goals for mutually beneficial and equal international cooperation. Such strengthening of cooperation in the field of security is primarily related to the foreign policy situation, Dmitry Zhuravlev, scientific director of the Institute of Regional Problems, associate professor of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, tells Izvestia.

Notes:

[i] “The Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation signed the Union State Treaty on 8 December 1999,” Press Service of the President of the Republic of Belarus, https://president.gov.by/en/belarus/economics/economic-integration/union-state?TSPD_101_R0=08eaf62760ab20008e25be59f2426da6e735002c3eb769d3b553a73ed46fd82fa95c1f4983143a0a086c7a2488143000ed156aeeac2db1eb09822ff7aca3ea7bcda21c0e8cb9ef3c1a0b6b7c0271930783b0b327184c7aa97f0896aae08327fc

[ii] See: “Poland to temporarily suspend asylum rights amid Belarus border tensions,” Al-Jazeera, 12 October 2024. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/12/poland-to-temporarily-suspend-asylum-rights-amid-belarus-border-tensions

[iii] See: “Belarus launches nuclear drills a day after Russia announces them amid tensions with West,” AP News, 7 May 2024. https://apnews.com/article/russia-belarus-nuclear-drills-ukraine-war-144422347bb168878cebc0b78071dd99

[iv] See: Mark Temnycky, “Will Belarus join North Korea in fighting Russia’s war?” The Hill, 17 November 2024. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4993006-ukraine-north-korean-fighting/

[v] For analysis, see Helene Alstad Dyndal, “The Union State of Russia and Belarus at the present stage,” Strategem, 11 April 2024 https://www.stratagem.no/the-union-state-of-russia-and-belarus-at-the-present-stage/

Image Information:

Image: The Polish-Belarusian border, photo taken on 11 November 2021.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/premierrp/51674607554
Attribution: Irek Dorozanski

China Expands Its Influence in Africa Through Economic and Security Cooperation

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Chinese trade cooperation with Tanzania dates back to 1965, but now not only includes large-scale infrastructure projects, such as bridges, but also joint military exercises.

“The start of [China’s] joint naval exercise with Mozambique came after the conclusion of joint naval exercises with Tanzania…”

China is supporting African countries in economic and infrastructure development alongside its growing military presence in the continent. Tanzania, where China has been showing increasing interest in both the security and economic realms, is indicative of this trend. In late July China held Peace-Unity 2024, a joint military drill with Tanzania, which involved counter-terrorism exercises. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) newspaper Global Times argued those exercises “reflected China’s power projection capabilities” in Africa.[i] After the exercises in Tanzania, China held similar counterterrorism and counter-piracy exercises in neighboring Mozambique, which has borne the brunt of Islamic State (IS) affiliated militant attacks in East Africa.

Consistent with China’s game plan in Africa to combine security with economic partnerships, on 8 October, the CCP website cctv.com published the excerpted Chinese-language article discussing the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation and China Railway 15th Bureau Group’s finalizing the construction of a bridge in Tanzania after four years of work. The article touts the two-mile long bridge, which connects Kigongo and Busisi on the banks of the Gulf on Mwanza in Tanzania’s north, as the longest low-tower cable-stayed bridge in Africa. Given that the China Railway 15th Bureau Group, like other railway companies,[ii] has historically performed military-related construction missions, this bridge also has military significance for China’s power projection in Africa.

The combination of constructing major infrastructure projects in Tanzania followed by joint military training exercises with the same country and its strife-ridden neighbor reflects China’s modus operandi in Africa. Developing African infrastructure not only opens economic opportunities for Chinese commerce on the continent but also enables China to expand its military influence in Africa. In addition, large-scale Chinese infrastructure projects in Africa can obscure the arguably more significant military influence China is acquiring there, which China does not wish to highlight internationally for fear it could be perceived as threatening.

China will continue to exert influence and enhance its military footprint in African countries by linking its ability to support economic development and infrastructure projects with joint military exercises and potentially other objectives in those countries, such as basing rights. This promotes China’s Belt and Road Initiative and broader global security objectives. If there is a new “great game” in Africa, Tanzania is among the numerous countries on the continent where China is playing aggressively.

Sources:

“China-Tanzania joint military drill kicks off, ‘reflects Chinese continental power projection capabilities,” Global Times (Chinese Communist Party news service focusing on international affairs from a Chinese nationalist and populist perspective). 6 August 2024. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202408/1317509.shtml

On its way to Mozambique from Tanzania, the Qilianshan conducted joint search and rescue as well as counter-terrorism and counter-piracy training in preparation of the joint exercises, the PLA Navy confirmed. The start of the joint naval exercise with Mozambique came after the conclusion of joint naval exercises with Tanzania, also under the banner of the “Peace-Unity 2024” joint exercises.

With a focus on counter-terrorism and counter-piracy in the joint exercises, Zhang Junshe, a Chinese military expert, told the Global Times that the drills are of pragmatic significance in Africa where terrorist and pirate attacks occur frequently

“中企承建非洲最长矮塔斜拉桥顺利合龙 (The longest low-tower cable-stayed bridge in Africa built by a Chinese company was successfully closed),” news.cctv.com (website of national television broadcaster of China, which reports to the Chinese Communist Party), 8 October 2024. https://news.cctv.com/2024/10/08/ARTIEo5gdghwYT812Y5y9lRG241008.shtml

The Magufuli Bridge in Tanzania, jointly constructed by China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation and China Railway 15th Bureau Group, was successfully completed. After more than four years of non-stop construction, the longest low-tower cable-stayed bridge in Africa has been fully connected, and the countdown to the completion and opening of the entire line has begun. The Magufuli Bridge is located on the southern shoreline of Lake Victoria, which is the largest lake in Africa.

There was no underwater casting during the entire pedestal construction process, which minimized the impact of construction on the water quality of the lake and effectively protected the “Mother Lake” of the African people. During the construction process, the construction team strictly implemented quality control standards. After completion, it will become the first bridge project on Lake Victoria, which is of great significance for enhancing Tanzania’s national image and promoting local social and economic development.

Notes:

[i] See Liu Xuanzun and Guo Yuandan, “China-Tanzania joint military drill kicks off, ‘reflects Chinese continental power projection capabilities’”, Global Times (daily English language newspaper under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party’s People’s Daily newspaper), 30 July 2024. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202407/1317046.shtml

[ii] The China Railway 15th Bureau Group was formerly the fifth and sixth divisions of the Chinese Railways Corps, which was considered a “special force” of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) since 1949. https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80-00809A000700070455-8.pdf

Image Information:

Image: Chinese trade cooperation with Tanzania dates back to 1965, but now not only includes large-scale infrastructure projects, such as bridges, but also joint military exercises.
Source: Xinhua, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:China-Tanzania_trade_agreement_signed.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

China Sets Sight on Gabon for Second African Military Base

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Gabon’s Port Gentil is the country’s second largest city and its airport and seaport will likely increasingly host military and business visitors from China as China courts Gabon as a close partner in West Africa.

“The visit of the [Chinese] Peace Ark highlights the friendly relations between Gabon and China, and brings glory and well-being to the Gabonese people.”

Beijing is targeting Gabon to host the second Chinese military base on the African continent, marking its first military base on Africa’s western coast. On 9 October, the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation website published the excerpted Chinese-language article, which highlighted the Chinese naval visit to Gabon. The visit came amid a Chinese push to possibly establish its first military base on the western coast of Africa—and Gabon is a prospect to host this base.[i] The article indicates China’s goal was to cultivate goodwill in Gabon through the visit of its Peace Ark naval hospital ship to Gabon’s Owendo Port in the country’s capital. Among the participants in the farewell ceremony with the Gabonese Navy, for example, were non-military personnel, such as overseas Chinese businesspeople in Gabon, Confucius Institute[ii] representatives, and Chinese diplomatic personnel and medical teams.

The Peace Ark naval hospital ship held joint exercises with the Gabonese Navy on maritime rescue and evacuation between 26 September and 3 October. Yet, the most impactful mission of the hospital ship during the visit to Gabon was related to “soft power,” with it providing medical treatment to 6,934 Gabonese civilians, including 171 surgeries, and delivering four babies. Further, as part of the visit, Chinese medical teams were dispatched from the naval hospital ship to schools to promote health education and to hospitals to support Gabonese doctors, while also playing a friendly soccer match with the Gabonese military.

The Chinese campaign for influence in Gabon differs from Russia, which is unable to provide the same breadth of combined military and medical support to a country like Gabon. China is able to parlay its military support with significant investment, including more than 4 million Euros to Gabon in the weeks prior to this naval hospital ship’s visit to the country, which again Russia is unable to match.[iii] The Chinese campaign in Gabon is seeing results, with the Gabonese president publicly welcoming the Belt and Road Initiative’s expansion into the country.[iv] China is, therefore, primed to increase its influence in Gabon, including potentially establishing a base in the country, while also outflanking other geopolitical powers, such as Russia, for influence in Africa in the long run.

Sources:

““和平方舟”号医院船结束访问加蓬，离港时与加蓬海军举行联合演练 (The “Peace Ark” Hospital Ship Ends Visit to Gabon, Conducting a Joint Exercise with the Gabonese Navy When Leaving the Port),” focac.org, (official website of FOCAC, which is the official forum between all African states except Eswatini and China), 9 October 2024. https://www.focac.org/zfgx/hpaq/202410/t20241009_11504024.htm

The Chinese Navy’s Peace Ark hospital ship slowly sailed away from the Port of Owendo, Gabon, after successfully completing its visit to Gabon. More than 300 people, including Ambassador to Gabon Zhou Ping, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Gabonese Navy Diwaku, embassy staff, overseas Chinese in Gabon, representatives of the Confucius Institute and the medical aid team to Gabon attended the farewell ceremony. This was the first joint maritime search and rescue exercise between the Chinese and Gabonese navies.

In addition to the main platform for treatment, the hospital ship also sent expert teams and patrol teams to local hospitals for diagnosis and treatment The visit of the Peace Ark hospital ship was highly appreciated by the Gabonese government.

Notes:

[i] See: Jacob Zenn, “China’s Initiates Push To Establish A Military Base In Gabon,” OE Watch, 06-2024. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/chinas-initiates-push-to-establish-a-military-base-in-gabon/

[ii] China’s Confucius Institutes are often situated at university campuses abroad “to promote the Chinese language and cultural activities among students and researchers” but they “unswervingly” serve the Communist Party’s goals and are, therefore, part of Chinese soft power projection. As a result of Confucius Institutes’ ties with the Communist Party, an increasing number of them have been shut down in the West, but they are still expanding in Africa and the Middle East. Mordechai Chaziza, “China’s Soft Power Projection Strategy: Confucius Institutes in the MENA Region,” Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, 25 July 2023. https://besacenter.org/chinas-soft-power-projection-strategy-confucius-institutes-in-the-mena-region/

[iii] “Le Gabon attire 4,3 milliards $ d’investissements chinois (Gabon attracts $4.3 billion of Chinese investment),” Agence Ecofin [Cameroon— and Switzerland-based French-language website primarily covering African political economics]. 4 September 2024. https://www.agenceecofin.com/economie/0409-121241-le-gabon-attire-4-3-milliards-dinvestissements-chinois

[iv] See: “(FOCAC) Interview: China is a true friend that stands with Gabon through thick and thin, says Gabonese president,” news.cn [website of the official state news agency of the People’s Republic of China]. 5 September 2024. https://english.news.cn/20240905/11512527b9eb47799078488bbb0c3e31/c.html

Image information:

Image: Gabon’s Port Gentil is the country’s second largest city and its airport and seaport will likely increasingly host military and business visitors from China as China courts Gabon as a close partner in West Africa.
Source: Brian Ecton, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:POG-Airport.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

China Debuts Fifth-Generation Stealth Fighter

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An image of the J-35A released by CCTV Military’s official Weibo account.

“The debut of the J-35A marks China becoming the second country in the world, after the United States, to simultaneously field two stealth fighter jets.”

China hosted the 2024 International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition in Zhuhai from 12 to 17 November 2024. The event showcased a range of new and upcoming advanced weapons, including attack helicopters, UAVs, and robots. Notably, it marked the debut of China’s newest fifth-generation stealth fighter, the J-35A.[i]

The first excerpted article, published by the Global Times, a CCP tabloid newspaper, features an interview with Wang Yongqing, director of the Science and Technology Committee at Shenyang Aviation Industry Corporation of China.[ii] Wang Yongqing highlights that the J-35A incorporates enhanced stealth capabilities through breakthrough technologies, with a focus on all-domain warfare. The J-35A could be tasked with a range of missions, including seizing and maintaining air superiority, engaging ground and sea air defense systems, and intercepting enemy fighters, bombers, cruise missiles, and other airborne threats. Furthermore, Wang Yongqing elaborates that the J-35 is a “one machine with multiple types” platform, highlighting its versatility in supporting the development of multiple variants tailored to specific mission requirements while enabling efficient scaling for rapid production. This versatility includes a J-35 variant’s anticipated deployment aboard China’s Type 003 Fujian aircraft carrier.[iii]

The second excerpted article, published by Direct News, a news outlet controlled by the propaganda department of the Shenzhen municipal committee, disputes claims that the J-35 is merely a copy of the U.S. F-35. The article states the two stealth jets share some design similarities but differ in stealth effectiveness, bomb bay design, engine performance, and aerodynamic shape, reflecting China’s unique combat assumptions and tactical approaches, which diverge from those of Western countries. The debut of the J-35A demonstrates China’s advancement in stealth technology and broader aviation engineering, yet challenges and uncertainties remain in achieving parity with the United States.

China’s progress in fighter development is undeniable; however, noticeable differences exist in the operational and combat experience of Chinese fifth-generation fighters compared to their U.S. counterparts.[iv] For example, U.S. F-22s and F-35s have flown numerous combat missions in the Middle East and Afghanistan, providing invaluable real-world insights into their capabilities while also demonstrating the proficiency of their pilots. Additionally, while the unveiling of the J-35A underscores China’s ambition to challenge U.S. military capabilities, the absence of detailed specifications and lack of real-world operational insights make it difficult to assess whether the J-35A’s technological sophistication and performance rival or exceed the U.S. fifth-generation fighters.[v]

Sources:

Fan Wei and Liu Xuanzun, “歼-35A研制单位首席专家：研制新装备，根本还是为了让人民过上好日子 (The chief expert of the J-35A development unit: the fundamental purpose of developing new equipment is to ensure a better life for the people),” Global Times (a tabloid newspaper under the CCP), 11 November 2024. https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1815388616265828340&wfr=spider&for=pc

The debut of the J-35A positions China as the second country in the world, after the United States with its F-22 and F-35, to operate two stealth fighters simultaneously. Wang Yongqing, director of the Science and Technology Committee at the Shenyang Institute of Aviation Industry Corporation of China, told the Global Times during the Zhuhai Airshow that the J-35A strengthens China’s combat system network. He emphasized that the development of new equipment is fundamentally aimed at preventing aggression, promoting national development, and ensuring a better quality of life for the people.

In response to questions from Global Times about the new features of the J-35A, Wang highlighted the aircraft’s advancements in stealth, information integration, networking, and intelligence. He explained that the J-35 adopted several new technologies to enhance its stealth capabilities and noted the significant progress and innovation made in these areas. Wang also emphasized the aircraft’s focus on information warfare, coordinated warfare, and all-domain operations.

Regarding the J-35A’s technical features and its potential to cooperate with other fighter jets, Wang provided insight into the aircraft’s design. He stated that the J-35A is capable of seizing and maintaining air control, attacking enemy third and fourth-generation fighters, and defending against ground and sea-based air defense systems. The fighter is also designed to intercept enemy aircraft, bombers, cruise missiles, and other aerial threats.

Wang further asserted that the J-35A can engage previous-generation aircraft while staying outside the enemy’s effective detection range, achieving “one-way transparency” on the battlefield. This gives China an overwhelming advantage, allowing for the detection and neutralization of the enemy first. Against aircraft of the same generation, the J-35A’s lethality and survivability, along with its advanced coordinated combat capabilities, allow it to disrupt the enemy’s targeting abilities and gain a tactical advantage. He correlates the role of the J-35A as the “point guard on the basketball court.”

Wang also discussed the J-35’s development as a “one aircraft, multiple types” platform. The aircraft’s overall layout and technology research have matured key technologies, reducing research and production costs. This approach, he explained, will enable China’s air defense forces to scale up quickly and enhance their combat capabilities.

Qiu Yatong, “美媒承认：所谓“歼-35抄袭F-35”根本是无稽之谈 (US media acknowledges: the so-called “J-35 copying the F-35” is completely nonsense),” Direct News (news outlet controlled by the propaganda department of the Shenzhen municipal committee), 09 November 2024. https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1815256338816862194&wfr=spider&for=pc

On November 12, the 15th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition will be held in Zhuhai, featuring the much-anticipated J-35A stealth fighter, which recently made a surprise appearance at Zhuhai Jinwan Airport. Reuters confirmed the J-35A’s participation, describing it as a medium-stealth, multi-purpose fighter and highlighting it as the biggest draw of the air show. Reuters emphasized that advancing aerospace design and manufacturing capabilities, exemplified by the J-35, has become a critical strategic priority for China.

The debut of the J-35A positions China as the second country, after the United States, to operate two stealth fighters simultaneously, marking the beginning of its “double fifth-generation aircraft” era. While little is publicly known about the fighter’s performance and combat specifications, it is widely believed that the J-35A will serve aboard the Chinese Navy’s Type 003 aircraft carrier, Fujian.

For years, Western media have baselessly accused China of copying weapons designs, including claims that the J-35 is a direct imitation of the U.S. F-35. However, significant differences exist between the two aircraft, such as nose shape, engine tail nozzle, wing shape, and tail design, making these accusations unfounded and misleading.

Wu Wei, senior editor at Direct News, remarked that the Western tendency to compare the J-35 with the F-35 stems from subconscious bias. He noted that while the two aircraft share similar model numbers and overall appearance, the J-35 is distinct in reflecting China’s unique assumptions about combat scenarios and tactical priorities. Differences include stealth effectiveness, bomb bay design, engine performance, and aerodynamic shape, all of which highlight China’s independent approach to stealth fighter development and application.

Notes:

[i] To watch an official news segment on the J-35A unveiling, see CCTV7 news coverage, CCTV7 Military Report, 14 November 2024. https://tv.cctv.com/2024/11/14/VIDEf28pCkOpF9xOoD1NcEKJ241114.shtml

[ii] To watch an interview with Wang Yongqing discussing the J-35A, see Global Times’ official video interview, Global Times, 12 November 2024. https://haokan.baidu.com/v?pd=wisenatural&vid=5212300448341909343

[iii] Maya Carlin, “J-35A vs. F-35: Can China’s New Fighter Jet Match Up?,” National Interest, 18 November 2024. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/j-35a-vs-f-35-can-chinas-new-fighter-jet-match-213760

[iv] Lin Nai-Chuan, “China showcases new stealth fighter at Zhuhai air show,” Voice of America, 13 November 2024. https://www.voanews.com/a/china-showcases-new-stealth-fighter-at-zhuhai-air-show/7863356.html

[v] Sebastien Roblin, “China Is Unleashing a New Stealth Fighter, And It’s a Direct Challenge to America,” Popular Mechanics, 14 November 2024. https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a62906352/china-new-stealth-fighter-j-35a/

Image Information:

Image: An image of the J-35A released by CCTV Military’s official Weibo account.
Source: https://weibo.com/6189120710/OEODkqT6a?layerid=5097277586408330
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

China Unveils New High-Power Microwave Weapon Systems

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“High-power microwave weapons represent not only a leap forward in military technology, but also a major shift in the future war model. Whoever can seize the strategic commanding heights may gain the upper hand in future wars.”

China unveiled at least three mobile, ground-based, high-power microwave-directed energy weapon systems during the Zhuhai Air Show in November. According to the excerpted article published on Chinese blog and news outlet Sina, these weapons are capable of paralyzing hundreds of drones with one strike and could give China an advantage in future wars. The article argues that the new weapon system will be an especially important counter-drone technology. The article outlines several key advantages of the high-power microwave weapons:

  1. They can quickly deploy, lock onto, and attack a target the moment it comes into range
  2. They produce electromagnetic pulses over a wide area and can attack multiple drones simultaneously
  3. They are economical to employ, do not consume ammunition, such as missiles and artillery, and can be launched multiple times in succession
  4. They are ideal in more complex environments, including urban settings, compared to traditional kinetic weapons, preventing civilian casualties and preserving necessary infrastructure

Specifically, China North Industries Group Corporation unveiled the Hurricane 2000 and Hurricane 3000 high-power microwave weapons systems. The article describes the first system as a large, flat array mounted on top of an 8×8 light armored vehicle chassis[i] or similar variant. The system features a small rotating radar for target detection and tracking. The second system, larger than the first, is mounted on a Shaanxi Auto SX2400/2500 series 8×8 truck. It also includes “planar arrays and radars.” Some sources claim the Hurricane 2000 and Hurricane 3000 have an effective range of 2000 to 3000 meters, an order of a magnitude higher than the U.S. manufactured Leonidas high-power microwave weapon system.[ii] The article also describes a third high-power microwave weapon system, which comes from China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation. Like the Hurricane 3000, it rides atop the Shaanxi Auto SX2400/2500 series 8×8 trucks.

According to the article, China has achieved major breakthroughs in the field of high-energy microwave weapons, which could indeed give it an edge in future warfare. Finally, China’s microwave weapon systems underscore its commitment to developing advanced weapons technologies, particularly to counter emerging aerial threats, such as UAVs.

Sources:

“无人机的新克星：国产高功率微波武器现身 (A New Drone Opponent: Unveiling the Domestic High-Powered Microwave Weapon),” Sina (Chinese blog and news outlet), 18 November 2024. https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2024-11-18/doc-incwmras0246638.shtml

At this year’s China Air Show, at least three domestically-produced large-scale mobile ground-based high-power microwave directed energy weapons were unveiled. This type of weapon can be regarded as a killer weapon to deal with drone swarm attacks. It has not only become a hot spot of the air show, but also once again highlighted the strength of China’s military industry.

In recent years, the use of drones for reconnaissance and attack on the battlefield by militaries around the world has increased… This has made armies of various countries strongly aware of the urgency to expand their defense systems against drone threats. However, traditional air defense systems are not always effective against these types of small and flexible aerial targets. In this context, high-energy microwave weapons have emerged as a new way to counter drones and have significant advantages in actual combat.

The primary advantages of high-energy microwave weapons in anti-UAV operations are: First…rapid response… Second, they cover a wide area. The third is they are more efficient… The fourth is non-lethal…

China North Industries Group Corporation (NORINCO) has launched two high-power microwave weapons systems, the “Hurricane 2000” and the “Hurricane 3000.”

The first system consists of a large flat array mounted on the top of an 8×8 light armored vehicle chassis. The system is equipped with a small rotating radar, which is likely used for target detection and tracking. Its chassis resembles the one used in the 625E self-propelled short-range air defense system. The latter system is larger than the former, mounted on the Shaanxi Auto SX2400/2500 series 8×8 trucks. It also includes planar arrays and radars. Video broadcast at the scene showed a small drone being shot down by one of the systems, and infrared camera footage was also seen. Electro-optical and infrared cameras are usually used with directional It can be combined with anti-UAV systems to help accurately identify and track targets. It is estimated that the “Hurricane 2000” should be mainly used for field mobile accompanying air defense, while the “Hurricane 3000” may be used for fixed-point air defense missions in key areas.

In addition, photos of a third high-power microwave weapon system also appeared at the air show. This system comes from China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation and is also installed on Shaanxi Automobile SX2400/2500 series trucks. The microwave array is mounted on an articulated bracket of a different style at the rear of the vehicle. There should also be sensors such as radar in the dome on the retractable mast at the end of the cab…

China has made major breakthroughs in the field of high-energy microwave weapons and has begun to enter the international arms market. As the frequency of use of weapons such as drones and cruise missiles in modern warfare increases, countries are also increasingly demanding means to counter these threats. High-energy microwave weapons, as a type of weapon with strong anti-drone capabilities and relatively The lower-cost option is likely to attract global attention. In the future, China is expected to become a leading country in the export of such equipment.

Notes:

[i] The referenced Hurricane 2000 sits on top of a vehicle resembling one used in China’s Type 625E self-propelled short-range air defense system, which the country unveiled during the November 2022 Zhuhai Air Show. To read more about the Type 625E air defense system and view an image, see Emma Helfrich, “This is China’s Beastly New Air Defense Vehicle,” The Warzone (a U.S. online magazine that looks at national security and geopolitical coverage and analysis, with an emphasis on military technology, strategy, and foreign policy), 18 November 2022. https://www.twz.com/this-is-chinas-beastly-new-chinese-air-defense-vehicle

[ii] “反无人机利器，“飓风”微波武器，有效距离比美高出一个数量级 (The“Hurricane Anti-Drone Weapon has an Effective Range an Order of Magnitude Higher Than That of the United States),” Net Ease (one of China’s largest internet companies, subject to government regulatory oversight and censorship), 18 November 2024. https://www.163.com/dy/article/JHA8HFMA0553OOJA.html

Damage to Undersea Cables in Baltic Hint at China – Russia Collusion

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The Baltic Fulmar was sold to a Chinese shipowner in 2023 and renamed the NewNew Polar Bear. The NewNew Polar Bear is suspected of severing undersea cables in the Baltics.

“Investigators suspect that a Chinese vessel is the perpetrator of the incident. The incident was sharply reacted to by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who said that it ‘is not an accidental accident, but a deliberate sabotage.”

On 19 November, the Danish Navy detained the Chinese-flagged bulk carrier Yi Pang 3 under the suspicion that it had damaged undersea cables connecting Finland and Germany and cables connection Sweden and Lithuania. As per the first excerpted article in the Polish defense publication Defense24, the Yi Pang 3 had sailed from the Russian port of Ust-Lugu before passing through the Baltic Sea. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius called the incident deliberate sabotage but did not delineate a responsible party. According to the second excerpted article from the Indian publication The Week, Russia may be the culprit, given that the Yi Pang 3 was captained by a Russian. Additional western sources point to Russia as well.[i] However, the incident is the second involving a Chinese-flagged ship damaging undersea cables in the Baltic.[ii] It also comes on the heels of Western efforts to isolate China from the undersea cable network in the Indo-Pacific and suspicion of Chinese hacking into existing undersea cables in the region.[iii] Two months prior, in September 2024, Chinese officials excoriated the U.S. and its allies’ efforts to control the global undersea cable network.[iv]

It is highly probable that both Russia and China are complicit in the acts of sabotage against critical Western infrastructure. Both China and Russia have a shared interest in degrading Western capabilities: China’s confrontations with the West regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea and Russia’s confrontations with the West over control of Ukraine. Both China and Russia have recently engaged in hybrid or non-lethal forms of warfare, leading multiple Western leaders to suspect and accuse them of sabotage.

Sources:

“Danish Navy Stopped Chinese Ship Suspected of Damaging Undersea Cables,” Defense24 (Polish based security focused news outlet), 20 November 2024. https://defence24.com/armed-forces/danish-navy-stopped-a-chinese-ship-suspected-of-damaging-undersea-cables?utm_source=archives.internationalintrigue.io&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=tense-moments-at-this-year-s-g20&_bhlid=0108ca30f9c9a3a247f66f2e0da3ce1af250d1cd

The detention took place in the area of Danish territorial waters, in the Danish Straits at the exit of the Great Belt. The detention of the vessel was carried out by the Danish Navy patrol vessel P525. After a few hours, another vessel HDMS Soeloeven, which is specialised for underwater work, reached both vessels. The detention of the vessel occurred on the evening of 19 November.

There is no information on whether there was an inspection of the vessel by the Danish MW’s boarding group. The Chinese vessel was sailing from the Russian port of Ust-Luga.

There is no official announcement from the Danish authorities as yet either, but the Chinese bulk carrier is suspected of damaging telecommunications cables lying on the bottom of the Baltic Sea. The vessel was said to have sailed over the damaged cables between Finland and Germany, the so- called C-Lion1, and between cables connecting Sweden and Lithuania.

Investigators suspect that a Chinese vessel is the perpetrator of the incident. The incident was sharply reacted to by German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, who said that it “is not an accidental accident, but a deliberate sabotage.”

This is not the first time that a Chinese naval vessel has been responsible for damaging strategic infrastructure in the Baltic. In October 2023, the Balticconenctor gas pipeline connecting Estonia and Finland was unsealed. The gas pipeline was damaged by an anchor dropped from the deck of the Chinese container ship NewNew Polar Bear. The vessel was suspected of being the perpetrator of that incident from the outset, but it was not decided to detain it and it escaped from the Baltic Sea without consequences.

Source: “Not Russia? Chinese cargo vessel “Yi Peng 3” likely behind the sabotage of undersea cables in Baltic,” The Week (India based news service), 21 November 2024. https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2024/11/21/not-russia-chinese-cargo-yi-peng-3-likely-behind-the-sabotage-of-undersea-cables-in-baltic.html

A Chinese cargo vessel ‘Yi Peng 3’ is said to be “of interest” in connection with the alleged sabotage of two undersea communication cables in the Baltic Sea. The ship is said to have passed two cables on Sunday and Monday around the same time they were found to be severed, said reports.

Though there is no official confirmation in this regard, the Danish Navy is said to have detained the Chinese-registered cargo ship, allegedly helmed by a Russian captain. The detention allegedly took place inside the Danish territorial waters by the Danish Navy patrol vessel P525. Soon another vessel HDMS Soeloeven, which specialises in underwater work, joined the P525.

However, it is not clear whether the Danish Navy officials boarded the Chinese vessel which was said to be sailing from the Russian port of Ust-Luga.

Besides Denmark, Sweden too is taking an active interest in the ship. Sweden’s National Operative Department said it is “part of the sphere of interest, but there may be more.”

As per the data by Vesselfinder tracking data, Yi Peng 3’s last port visit was on November 15 in Ust-Luga in western Russia, close to the border with Estonia.

It stopped overnight on Tuesday to Wednesday in the Kattegat strait between Denmark and Sweden. The ship was then said to be moving along a strange route and stopped overnight on Tuesday to Wednesday in the Kattegat strait between Denmark and Sweden.

The ship was travelling 78 km at an average speed of 10.4 km/h and the transponder, which relays the data of the ship, at the time was inactive. Though the vessel’s AIS data shows that it circled just off Bornholm for about an hour, this is attributed to strong winds at that time and in that region.

However, Russian maritime pilot Alexander Stechentsev, who boarded the ship to guide it out of port, told The Guardian that there “was nothing unusual about the vessel.” He added that he took the ship to a receiving buoy located 11 miles offshore before disembarking.This isn’t the first that a Chinese vessel is destroying an underwater asset in the Baltic Sea. In 2022, the Chinese container vessel, the ‘NewNew Polar Bear’ had damaged a gas pipeline after its anchor dragged it across the seabed. China acknowledged the incident but claimed that the vessel accidentally damaged the pipeline due to stormy conditions that were prevailing at the time.

Notes:

[i] The view that Russia is behind the sabotage is also supported by at least one article in the U.S press. See: “Chinese-Registered Ship Is Held in Baltic Sea Sabotage Investigation,” The Wall Street Journal, 20 November 2024. https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/chinese-registered-ship-is-held-in-baltic-sea-sabotage-investigation-27929472

[ii] In October 2023 the Chinese flagged NewNew Polar Bear cut an undersea pipeline and communications cable in the Baltic. That ship was also piloted by a Russian crew and escaped the area without being detained.  China eventually said the NewNew Polar Bear had indeed damaged the critical undersea infrastructure but noted it was an accident. For an Australian perspective see: Cynthia Mehboob, “Commentary: Beijing’s Baltic confession exposes undersea vulnerability,” Channel News Asia (Singapore-based news service), 15 August 2024. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/china-ship-pipeline-accident-sabotage-damage-undersea-cable-europe-asia-4545766

[iii] For background information on the recent undersea cable dispute with China, see: Dodge Billingsley, “China Creating Undersea Cable Network In Response To United States Isolation Efforts, OE Watch, 07-2024. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/china-creating-undersea-cable-network-in-response-to-united-states-isolation-efforts/; and Dodge Billingsley, “Potential Flashpoint Stemming From Undersea Cable Network Access Restrictions,” OE Watch, 06-2024. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/potential-flashpoint-stemming-from-undersea-data-cable-network-access-restrictions/

[iv] “US politicization of undersea cables opposed,” Global Times (English language newspaper under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party’s flagship newspaper, the People’s Daily), 24 September 2024. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202409/1320312.shtml

Image Information:

Image: The Baltic Fulmar was sold to a Chinese shipowner in 2023 and renamed the NewNew Polar Bear. The NewNew Polar Bear is suspected of severing undersea cables in the Baltics.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newnew_Polar_Bear – /media/File:Baltic_Fulmar_(ship,_2005)_IMO_9313204,_Maasmond,_Port_of_Rotterdam_pic4.JPG
Attribution: Public Domain

India’s UAV Development Struggles to Take Off

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India’s Rustom-II in Flight during a testing phase. Note: the Rustom UAV is now referred to as the TAPAS.

“The TAPAS underwent tests before the armed services and the Ministry of Defence (MoD) proceeded to acquire the MQ9s.”

As India has made a push to build up its defense industry, it occasionally allows the armed forces to make acquisitions of weapon systems outside of Indian production venues. This occurs when there is an urgent operational requirement and no viable alternative available from Indian companies.[i] To that end, officials in the Indian armed forces announced earlier this year they had purchased 31 MQ-9B Reaper Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) from the United States under an Acceptance of Necessity acquisition.[ii]

India’s acquisition of the MQ-9B UAVs, instead of a system from India, brought to light ongoing issues with UAV development in India as reported on by the accompanying excerpted article from India’s independent think tank, the Observer Research Foundation. The article notes that Indian officials chose the MQ-9Bs over an equivalent Indian system, the TAPAS, due to numerous issues with the latter’s development and testing. The author points out that TAPAS is being revived by the Indian Air Force despite the MQ-9B purchase, but significant issues remain. One of the most notable challenges is that TAPAS is apparently reliant on Chinese parts like other Indian-developed UAVs. While importing parts for UAVs from China is more cost-effective, it could compromise security, and India’s Ministry of Defense has warned the defense industry about sourcing parts for UAVs from China.

The article concludes by stating that while India has yet to produce a UAV suitable for the military, like TAPAS, there is still potential for domestically produced UAVs if the government, the armed forces, the Defense Research Development Organization,[iii] and the Indian defense industry all continue to push for it. However, the impact of the Indian armed forces continued acquisitions from outside the country’s defense industry on this situation remains uncertain.

Sources:

Kartik Bommakanti, “Despite MQ9B purchase, the Indian Air Force and Indian Navy revive TAPAS,” Observer Research Foundation (independent think-tank in India), 13 September 2024.

https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/despite-mq9b-purchase-the-indian-air-force-and-indian-navy-revive-tapas

Earlier this year, the Modi government’s announcement that India will purchase 31 MQ9-B Reaper Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAVs), also known as Predators, developed by the United States’ General Atomics, came as a shot in the arm for the Indian armed forces. The Indian Navy (IN) will get 15 naval variants of the MQ9 UAVs dubbed the Sea Guardians for maritime missions, whereas the Indian Army (IA) and the Indian Air Force (IAF) will get eight each…The Reapers are primarily geared for ISR missions, but they can also perform strike missions, and the ones being purchased by India are multirole…even if this purchase is not consistent with the government’s flagship Atma Nirbhar Bharat (ANB) initiative…

All the factors mentioned above outweighed whatever capabilities the Tactical Airborne Platform for Air Surveillance (TAPAS), India’s native Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) drone, could bring to the armed forces…[TAPAS] was consumed by excessive development time and cost overruns, after its initial launch was pegged at a price of INR 1,650 crores or roughly US$ 200 million. By early January of 2024, the revised costs surged to INR 1,786 crores or US$ 215 million…

A key technical deficiency of the TAPAS drone is its engine, which is a fundamental weakness plaguing other Indian aircraft development programmes…The TAPAS underwent tests before the armed services and the Ministry of Defence (MoD) proceeded to acquire the MQ9s…

Thanks to the IAF and IN, the TAPAS is being revived despite its technological deficiencies. The IAF sees the TAPAS, notwithstanding its lack of endurance, worth improving on progressively, which it seeks to deploy along the Line of Actual Control (LaC)…

More recently, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has warned against both private sector enterprises and government-run entities like the DRDO sourcing drone parts from the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) for military UAVs. Nevertheless, private industry still relies on Chinese supplied spares…The TAPAS may have the support of the IAF and IN, but more broadly the domestic drone industry is heavily compromised by its dependence on spares and components from China. India confronts a trade-off—allow spares for military drones in particular to be sourced exclusively from non-Chinese sources, especially from native industry, thereby driving up costs and prolonging development time, or in a bid to keep procurement costs low for UAV components, allow the security of its drones to be compromised in key areas such as camera functions, communications, radio transmission and software security that are vital to military operations…

Although there is not a single Indian drone that can be considered militarily worthy…there is no reason to feel completely bleak about the future of military drone development in India, provided there is sustained effort by the government, the armed services, the DRDO and industry.

Notes:

[i] The Indian government set this requirement as part of Prime Minster Modi’s Atma Nirbhar Bharat initiative, or the “Make in India” initiative, beginning in 2014. The initiative mandates that the Ministry of Defense make acquisitions from the Indian defense industry to bolster growth and development of Indian companies. In recent years, India’s Ministry of Defense has gone outside of the Indian defense industry under government allowed exceptions to the initiative for what Indians have called “fast track” acquisitions, which fulfill urgent operational requirements for items such as new assault rifles. For a recent example of this, see: Snehesh Alex Philip, “Indian Army orders fresh batch of 73K SIG SAUER 716 rifles from US under emergency procurement,” The Print, 27 August 2024. https://theprint.in/defence/indian-army-orders-fresh-batch-of-73k-sig-sauer-716-rifles-from-us-under-emergency-procurement/2240975/

[ii] The Acceptance of Necessity differs from the “fast track” acquisitions to allow for more expensive acquisitions, like the MQ9-B UAVs. For other recent examples of Acceptance of Necessity acquisitions, see: Dinakar Peri, “Defence Acquisition Council clears heavy weight torpedoes, mid-air refuelling aircraft among major deals,” The Hindu, 16 February 2024. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/defence-acquisition-council-clears-heavy-weight-torpedoes-mid-air-refuelling-aircraft-among-major-deals/article67854256.ece  

[iii] India’s Defense Research Development Organization (DRDO) is an organization within the Ministry of Defense that has a history of working with companies in the defense industry to develop and produce various weapon systems.

Image Information:

Image: India’s Rustom-II in Flight during a testing phase. Note: the Rustom UAV is now referred to as the TAPAS
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Rustom_flight_2_(cropped).jpg
Attribution: CCA 4.0

Terrorist Attack in Togo Reveals Turkish Counter-Terrorism Role

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Togo’s Savanes Region is JNIM’s latest area of expansion, but it remains unclear whether Turkish PMCs can support the Togolese army to repel JNIM over the long term.

“The [JNIM] attack targeted soldiers who were patrolling the trenches under construction, and who were trying to prevent terrorist incursions at the border.”

The littoral West African country of Togo, along with its neighbor Benin, is a main target of expansion for the al-Qaeda affiliated Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims (JNIM).[i] As discussed in a French-language article in the Burkinabe publication, 24heures.bf, on 2 October, JNIM attacked a construction site in northern Togo engaged in the building of trenches to defend against JNIM incursions. The attack claimed the lives of nine Togolese soldiers and 10 civilians. This is not the first time JNIM has specifically destroyed trench-building projects and killed construction workers. The article notes that Togolese Army reinforcements accompanied by Turkish instructors in helicopters, finally repelled the attack by firing on the JNIM militants.

Although Turkish instructors have reportedly operated in Niger alongside Russian Africa Corps personnel, it was previously unclear whether Turkish instructors operated in Togo.[ii] The article, in fact, asserts that two Turkish instructors have been killed in previous JNIM attacks in Togo, which suggests Turks may be more involved in counter-insurgency operations in Togo than previously known.

The involvement of Turkish instructors in Togo seemingly differs from that of African Corps personnel operating in the Sahel, who not only engage in counterinsurgency operations against JNIM but are also involved in propping up post-coup junta military regimes in the Sahel, including Burkina Faso. Notably, Africa Corps has suffered numerous setbacks in battles with JNIM. The Turkish private military company, Sadat, had reportedly been active in Niger and Burkina Faso. The presence of Turkish instructors in Togo implies a likely expansion of the Turkish PMC and instructor presence in West Africa

Sources:

“Attaque terroriste au Togo: 19 morts près de la frontière du Burkina (Terrorist attack in Togo: 19 dead near the Burkina border),” 24heures.bf (independent French-language Burkina Faso-based publication with a focus on defense and security affairs), 4 October 2024. https://www.24heures.bf/attaque-terroriste-au-togo-19-morts-pres-de-la-frontiere-du-burkina/

A terrorist attack struck, on October 2, the town of Fanworgou in the Kpendjal region in northern Togo, exactly on the border with Burkina. The [JNIM] attack targeted soldiers who were patrolling along the trenches under construction, and who were trying to prevent terrorist incursions at the border. The result: 19 dead, including 9 soldiers and 10 civilians, including EBOMAF machine operators and technicians.

Reinforcements, especially airborne, were deployed to the site to counter the attackers, who were repelled by military units supported by helicopters and piloted by Turkish instructors. Despite the construction of trenches, the terrorists seem to continue to adapt their tactics.

Notes:

[i] Jacob Zenn, “Al-Qaeda’s Sahel Affiliate Targets Togo,” OE Watch, 07-2022, 2022. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/420353?pi296680=2

[ii] According to Africa Defense Forum, “some of Sadat’s Syrian fighters in Niger have ended up under Russian command fighting violent extremist organizations affiliated with al-Qaida and the Islamic State group in the Liptako-Gourma region, the tri-border area between Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.” Africa Defense Forum, “Turkish PMC ‘Sadat’ Competes for Sahel Influence,” adf-magazine.com, 30 July 2024. https://adf-magazine.com/2024/07/turkish-pmc-sadat-competes-for-sahel-influence/

Image Information:

Image: Togo’s Savanes Region is JNIM’s latest area of expansion, but it remains unclear whether Turkish PMCs can support the Togolese army to repel JNIM over the long term.
Source: EC-JRC/ECHO, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Togo_Base_Map.png
Attribution: CC x 2.

Mexico’s Sheinbaum Launches Plan To Address Security Crisis

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Journalists protest rising violence in Mexico.

“During López Obrador’s six-year term, crime claimed a record number of more than 190,000 lives, but the new president has ruled out confronting violence with more violence.”

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power in October in the middle of a full-blown security crisis. In just a few weeks, the State of Sinaloa has witnessed hundreds of deaths at the hands of warring factions within the Sinaloa Cartel.[i] Several public officials were assassinated, in one case—the mayor of Chilpancingo, the capital of Guerrero State—within a week of assuming office. Therefore, Sheinbaum presented her new security plan for Mexico at a critical moment. The excerpted article from left-center Argentine daily Página 12 emphasizes the continuity of Sheinbaum’s plan with that of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s, security plan, dubbed “hugs, not bullets.” The article characterizes López Obrador as seeking to attack crime at its social roots. However, there will also be some innovations in Sheinbaum’s security plan. The Página 12 article reports that Sheinbaum will concentrate security efforts on the top ten most violent cities in Mexico. The second excerpted article from Mexican business-focused daily El Economista notes that almost half of all homicides occur in six districts in Mexico. In these districts, the fight for territorial control between the two largest cartels, Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation, is most intense.

The success or failure of Sheinbaum’s security plan will have significant implications for the operational environment. Given their importance in the illicit drug and human smuggling routes, Mexico’s criminal cartels operate transnationally and drive much of Latin America’s criminal dynamics. A successful security plan in Mexico may have salutary effects for other countries, such as Ecuador, which are suffering from the expansion efforts of Mexican criminal organizations throughout Latin America.[ii]

Sources:

“Sheinbaum presentó su nuevo plan de seguridad (Sheinbaum presented her new security plan),” Página 12 (an Argentine daily known for a leftist bent), 9 October 2024. https://www.pagina12.com.ar/773339-sheinbaum-presento-su-nuevo-plan-de-seguridad

The former mayor of the federal district, who took office on October 1, pledged to maintain the strategy of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who chose to employ a series of social policies to attack crime at its roots during his term…In her proposal, Sheinbaum projects what she calls a ‘100-day security strategy,’ according to which national security would focus on the 10 most dangerous cities and states in the country…During López Obrador’s six-year term, crime claimed a record number of more than 190,000 lives, but the new president has ruled out confronting violence with more violence…‘What are we going to use? Prevention, attention to the causes, intelligence and presence,’ she said.

“Sheinbaum presenta su plan de seguridad que busca abatir la espiral de violencia de otros sexenios (Sheinbaum presents her security plan that seeks to reduce the spiral of violence of other six-year terms),” El Economista (a Mexican daily focused on business and economy), 8 October 2024. https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/sheinbaum-presenta-plan-seguridad-busca-abatir-espiral-violencia-otros-sexenios-20241008-729110.html 

The president will launch her strategy after the mayor of Chilpancingo, the capital of the state of Guerrero, one of the six districts of the country that account for almost half of all homicides, was beheaded last Sunday, a few days after taking office. Violence in Mexico is concentrated in strategic points (drug routes, borders, ports of entry for Chinese fentanyl components, and avocado and lemon producing regions). In these areas, the two main cartels in the country, the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG), operate and fight each other…Sheinbaum has only been in office for a week and the violence is relentless: the decapitation of the mayor of Chilpancingo, the discovery of 12 bodies in the state of Guanajuato, and some 150 people killed in three weeks in the state of Sinaloa.

Notes:

[i] For more on the internecine fighting within the Sinaloa Cartel, see: Christine Murray, “US Arrests Spark Cartel ‘War’ in Northern Mexico: ‘Like a Narco Pandemic,’” Financial Times, 28 September 2024. https://www.ft.com/content/0f883ce4-c922-48a7-b9e8-7793fccbf0c9

[ii] For more information on the presence of Mexico’s criminal organizations in Ecuador, see: Ryan Berg, “Why Ecuador’s Security Crisis Demands Global Action,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 July 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-ecuadors-security-crisis-demands-global-action

Image Information:

Image: Journalists protest rising violence in Mexico.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/knightfoundation/5569178904. 
Attribution: CC BY-SA 2.0