Category Archives: OE Watch

Russian Iskandar Brigade Moves Closer to Finland

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A member of the Finnish Army watches a K-9 Thunder [RG1] 155mm Self-propelled Howitzer drive by after a live fire exercise with U.S. Army Soldiers assigned to the 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division, on a range near Rovaniemi, Finland, May 17, 2024.

“Iskanders performed very well during the Special Military Operation [read: war], so the Finns should know that if something happens, such joy can come to them,” military expert Dmitry Boltenkov said to Izvestia.”

With the reestablishment of the Leningrad Military District, previously neutral Finland has become a focus of Russian and NATO interests. The excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer highlights Russia’s decision to form a missile brigade featuring Iskander missiles in the Republic of Karelia, near Finland. Former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu noted that due to Finland’s decision to join NATO, and “NATO’s desire to build up military potential near the Russian borders, as well as to expand the North Atlantic Alliance at the expense of Finland and Sweden,” Russia was required to undertake “retaliatory measures…to create an appropriate grouping of troops in Northwest Russia.” Russia’s decision to form a missile brigade so close to Finland also coincided with the annual U.S.-led Immediate Response 2024 exercise which took place in northern Europe in April and included Finland. Immediate Response featured U.S. equipment sent to Europe to support the exercise.[i] What probably interests Russia most is how much of what equipment the U.S. leaves behind and where they leave it.

Sources:

Source: Thomas Nielsen, “Finland relaxed over Moscow’s plans to deploy Iskander-M missiles near border”, The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 24 April 2024. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2024/04/finland-relaxed-over-moscows-plans-deploy-iskander-missiles-near-border

In its Kremlin-loyal newspaper Izvestia the Russian Defense Ministry reports on the new formation of a separate missile brigade in the Republic of Karelia. “Iskanders performed very well during the Special Military Operation [read: war], so the Finns should know that if something happens, such joy can come to them,” military expert Dmitry Boltenkov said to Izvestia.

Iskander-M [RG1] is mobile and each vehicle can carry two missiles. The missile flies ballistic at a hypersonic speed of Mach 6 and has a range of 400-500 kilometers.  Several different conventional warheads can be attached to the missiles, including a cluster munitions warhead, enhanced-blast warhead, high-explosive fragmentation warhead, an earth penetrator for bunker busting and an electromagnetic pulse device for anti-radar missions. The missile can also carry nuclear warheads.

Moscow has repeatedly said Finland’s decision to join NATO is provocative and will destabilize the security landscape in northern Europe. “Given NATO’s desire to build up military potential near the Russian borders, as well as to expand the North Atlantic Alliance at the expense of Finland and Sweden, retaliatory measures are required to create an appropriate grouping of troops in Northwest Russia,” Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu previously stated.

The fact is that it was Russia’s brutal and unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine that destabilized geopolitics in all of Europe. Finnish NATO-membership was not on the political agenda in Helsinki before February 24, 2022.

Finland shares a 1,340 km border with Russia from the Baltic Sea in the south to the Kola Peninsula in the north. The border has been closed by Helsinki since last fall when Russia’s FSB directed huge crowds of migrants to enter Finland in what Finnish authorities have called a hybrid operation.

…Finland joined NATO in April 2023, a move that caused Russia to restructure its military forces by depriving the Northern Fleet of the status as a military district. Reestablishing the Leningrad Military District is considered a sign that Russia’s military planners now see the entire western border as one theater of operation in case of war.

Notes:

[i] Equipment belonging to the US Army 3rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team of the 10th Mountain Division has been sent to support Immediate Response 2024 (IR24). The exercise includes allied training in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Germany, Czechia and Poland taking place between 21 April – 31 May, according to the Norwegian Armed Forces. See: Atle Staalesen, “US Army sends heavy equipment to Norwegian Arctic port of Narvik for transfer to Finland”, The Barents Observer, 24 April 2024. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2024/04/us-army-sends-heavy-equipment-norwegian-arctic-port-narvik-transfer-finland

Image Information:

Image: A member of the Finnish Army watches a K-9 Thunder [RG1] 155mm Self-propelled Howitzer drive by after a live fire exercise with U.S. Army Soldiers assigned to the 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division, on a range near Rovaniemi, Finland, May 17, 2024. 
Source: DVIDS, https://www.dvidshub.net/image/8418866/northern-forest-exercise
Attribution: Public Domain

Russian Import-Substitution Impacts Armored Vehicle Production

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Typhoon K-4386 “Typhoon-VDV” at Armiya-2021. Issues in bringing the Typhoon-VDV to serial production, due to the number of imported components and sophistication in design, illustrates the gap between Russia’s military modernization aspirations and industrial base capabilities.

“Currently, measures are being taken to engage specialized enterprises and organizations in the development and manufacturing of domestic components necessary for the production of protected military vehicles. Solving these issues is now considered by military leadership as one of the priority directions for enhancing combat readiness and reducing combat losses of the troops.”

Recent articles in Russian military publications regarding Typhoon [RG1] [i] armored vehicle production  highlight the advantages – and tradeoffs – of import-substitution measures across Russia’s defense industry. Moscow’s inability to import critical components has forced Russian manufacturers to simplify designs and shift component production to domestic manufacturers. According to the Russian military journal Material’no-tehnicheskoe obespechenie Vooruzhennyh Sil Rossiiskoi Federatsii, initial development of the Typhoon series of 4×4 and 6×6 armored vehicles in the 2010s was in response to the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) order to create vehicles capable of protecting crews on par with foreign offerings through 2020. The Typhoon-Kand Typhoon-Y capable of carrying a variety of armaments depending on mission requirements were Russia’s answer to the American-made Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle. Despite their official adoption by the Russian MoD, the number of components of foreign origin prevented mass production of initial models.

The journal further details how the military invasion of Ukraine in 2022 underscored the urgent need for armored transport. While domestic production has been a Russian military focus prior to the Ukrainian conflict, the war has accelerated import-substitution measures. Using existing multi-purpose vehicle chassis and domestic components, Russian military manufacturers began rapidly producing armored vehicles to meet pressing battlefield needs. However, current Typhoons suffer from reduced payload capacity, mobility, and less protection than initial test models using foreign produced parts. Some variants, such as the Typhoon-VDV, remain in limited production due to continued reliance on foreign parts.

The second excerpted article from the Russian military journal Armeiskii sbornik noted the extent of these changes in manufacturing and capability to the current Ground Forces model BMM [RG2] ,[ii] the ZCA-T “Linza,” a Typhoon-K variant. The “simplified chassis” version of the Linza features transmission, transfer block, bridge, power steering, and armor made by domestic manufacturers—primarily KamAZ but lacks a multi-functional command and control terminal. The case of the Typhoon demonstrates the impacts of import-substitution measures on the Russian defense industry and the rapid tradeoffs being made to maintain the current manufacturing tempo.

Sources:

Source: Evgeniy I. Kotyga, Vasily A. Novikov, Ksenia N. Moskalyuk, “Броня На Колесах (Armor on Wheels),” Logistics of the Military Forces of the Russian Federation (Monthly Russian military periodical), No. 4, April 2024. https://on-demand.eastview.com/browse/publication/144326

Pg. 75-76: “Following the tests, the protected vehicles OKR “Typhoon-K” and “Typhoon-U” were accepted for supply to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation by orders of the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation. However, due to the high complexity of the design and the large number of imported components, they were not mass-produced.

With the beginning of a special military operation, the issue of equipping the forces with protected vehicles became acute. To meet the urgent operational needs of the troops, the production of protected vehicles was organized based on the chassis and components of existing domestic multi-purpose vehicles (similar to unrealized projects with codes “Vodnik,” “Medved,” “Karatel,” etc.).

Pg. 78: “To address technical issues related to “import substitution” in protected vehicles of the “Typhoon-K” 4×4 wheeled formula and “Typhoon-VDV” families, a series of measures have been taken and is currently being implemented in the following main directions:

  • Utilization of domestic armored steels, titanium alloys, and composite ceramic panels instead of foreign-produced armor materials like Armox and Plasan.
  • Full localization of Cummins engines and ZF transmissions by domestic enterprises.
  • Import substitution of automotive components in suspension systems, steering control, electrical equipment, and other vehicle systems and assemblies with domestic counterparts.”

Pg. 80: “The effectiveness of the introduced changes in the design of protected vehicles has been positively evaluated based on the results of the conducted tests. Samples of modernized protected vehicles were accepted for supply to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation at the beginning of 2023. Thus, summing up the creation of new and modernization of existing protected vehicles, it should be noted the effectiveness of measures for ‘import substitution,’ simplification of sample designs, and the use of domestic materials, components, and assemblies, which meets the high demand of the troops for this type of equipment.

Source: R. Pokutny, R. Kurmaev, V. Stolbunov, “Красный Крест На Броне (A Red Cross on Armor),” Army Digest (Monthly Military journal), No. 4 (128-129), April 2024. https://dlib.eastview.com/browse/publication/470

Pg. 129: However, during the operation of the BMM (Armored Medical Vehicle), a number of shortcomings related to the excessive complexity of the design were identified. Taking into account the changes made (Table 1), on the basis of the ZSA-T “Linza” was created with a simplified design. The goals of creating this modification are to eliminate unnecessary complexity, reduce cost and time indicators at the production and operation stage, and replace imported components with domestic ones. The main changes to the ZSA-T “Linza” of a simplified design include the use of a single-volume body layout formula with a simultaneous increase in the protection class of the medical department, the provision of a spare wheel, and the installation of a “Tucha” smoke screen system, while BIUS (multifunction command and control system) and ABS (most likely the acronym for “anti-brake system”) are excluded.”

Notes:

[i] The Typhoon armored vehicle is produced by ROSOBORONEXPORT, a subsidiary of Rostec State Corporation and manufacturer of military equipment across the Russian Ground, Air, Naval, and Air Defense Forces. Products range from the T-90 tank to the Orlan family of UAVs.

[ii] “BMM” is the overarching term in the Russian Ground Forces for armored medical vehicles.

Image Information:

Image: Typhoon K-4386 “Typhoon-VDV” at Armiya-2021. Issues in bringing the Typhoon-VDV to serial production, due to the number of imported components and sophistication in design, illustrates the gap between Russia’s military modernization aspirations and industrial base capabilities. 
Source: ROSOBORONEXPORT, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Air-droppably_special-purpose_protected_vehicle_%28ZASN-D%29_during_the_%22Armiya_2021%22_exhibition.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0 DEED

Russia Evaluates Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Combat Missions

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“One of the main military-technical features of the special military operation in Ukraine, along with the use of high-precision and hypersonic missiles, has been the massive use of small commercial UAVs.”

The accompanying excerpted article in a monthly journal of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Armeisky Sbornik, discusses the importance of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on the modern battlefield. Russia believes that current UAV usage is not just a feature of the current conflict, but also indicative of the changing character of war. Therefore, Russia is now considering how UAV usage will be employed for all types of combat actions (offense, defense, raid, meeting battle) and when on the march.[i] Although not explicitly stated, the article suggests that UAVs will no longer be concentrated in a single unit as they were before 2022.[ii] Russia’s understanding of the situation suggests that individual units will likely each have their own UAVs and counter-UAV technologies. In the Russian view, success on the modern battlefield requires that all types of units, not just electronic warfare and air defense personnel, need some degree of UAV and counter-UAV technologies to accomplish their respective missions.

Sources:

Source: V. Dyatchin and I. Starodubtsev, “Влияние беспилотных летательных аппаратов на способы действий общевойсковых подразделений (The influence of unmanned aerial vehicles on the methods of action of combined arms units),” Armeisky Sbornik (monthly journal of the Russian Ministry of Defense), May 2024.  https://army.ric.mil.ru/Stati/item/573847/

One of the main military-technical features of the special military operation in Ukraine, along with the use of high-precision and hypersonic missiles, has been the massive use of small commercial UAVs. [i] Without UAVs, it is impossible to imagine the actions of assault detachments and groups, the destruction of the enemy by tube artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, including the use of high-tech weapons, the conduct of actions by reconnaissance elements, the fight against special detachments of foreign states and illegal armed groups, and other armed sabotage and terrorist formations. This also applies to the work of the command staff of combined arms formations in assessing the current situation and organizing combat actions.

Combined arms units participating in military conflicts use various forms and methods of action in the defense; on the offense; conducting combat, route, and direct security; enforcing martial law; during administrative movements; maneuvering on the battlefield, when locating targets.

The method of action means the sequence of use of all available forces and means, chosen by the unit commander and approved by the higher-level commander. When combined arms units are saturated with UAVs, unit commanders make changes to all methods of action, thereby achieving high efficiency when performing combat missions.

In the defense, UAVs conduct the following tasks in support of combined arms units:

  • conduct reconnaissance of enemy targets in front of the forward edge of the defense and in the immediate depths of their combat formations, transmit enemy target coordinates to artillery, combat vehicles, and air defense systems in real time;
  • support air, missile, artillery and combat vehicle (tanks, infantry fighting vehicles) fires in order to increase their accuracy, increase damage and reduce the combat potential of attacking enemy units;
  • inflict effective defeat on the opposing group of troops with fires from the defending combined arms formations;
  • help unit commanders study the terrain in combat areas and assess the nature of the actions of advancing enemy units;
  • monitor the nature of the actions of the enemy’s second echelons and reserves, and changes in the combat area;
  • control the actions of enemy units, their sabotage, reconnaissance and terrorist groups in the gaps between defensive strongpoints and on the flanks of units;
  • provide assistance to combat, route, and direct security elements in carrying out their tasks;
  • intensify electronic warfare against enemy electronic zones in order to disrupt the work of troops and weapons control centers;
  • perform other tasks in the interests of achieving defensive tasks by combined arms units.

In the offense, UAVs conduct the following tasks in support of combined arms units:

Laying fires, correcting air and artillery fires, increasing the accuracy of the destruction of targets by determining their coordinates in real time, reducing ammunition consumption, and assisting in creating the required superiority [of forces and means] over the defending enemy. They also help carry out the tasks of assault, raid and encircling detachments to destroy strongpoints, fortified areas (objects) and command posts of the opposing group.  Thanks to UAVs, which perform tasks to identify strongpoints, artillery and mortar firing positions, and the nature of the defending enemy’s actions, the losses of friendly personnel and equipment in an offensive are significantly reduced.When combined arms units are on the march, UAVs are used to strengthen route security and inflict preemptive fires on enemy formations that attempt to impede the movement of the column, as well as when encountering an enemy group and conducting meeting combat. When units occupy rest areas, UAVs take an active part in protecting them and repelling surprise enemy attacks…

Notes:

[i] For additional recent analysis on Russian drone development and operations, see: Dodge Billingsley, “Russia Details Plan To Overcome Military Drone Deficiencies,” OE Watch, 02-2024. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/russia-details-plan-to-overcome-military-drone-deficiencies/; and Charles Bartles, “Russia Plans To Add Remote Mining UAV Platoons To Engineer Units,” OE Watch, 09-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/russia-plans-to-add-remote-mining-uav-platoons-to-engineer-units/

[ii] Typically, a UAV company for a maneuver brigade or division.

Peru’s Stance On Megaport Is a Test of China’s Influence

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“Now the National Port Authority is trying to rescind the exclusivity, claiming it made a mistake…The Chinese company, however, remains firm and even hints that it could withdraw if it does not obtain exclusive access.”

China’s megaport in Chancay, Peru, just north of Lima, is set to be inaugurated by Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year during the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference. One of the largest deep-water ports of its kind, Chancay represents one of China’s most ambitious projects in South America. Built by state-owned enterprise Cosco Shipping, Chancay is meant to catalyze the China’s food security and dominance over critical minerals, while cutting shipping times to Asia by around one week. However, according to Argentine media outlet Infobae, Peruvian officials have announced an “administrative error” permitting Cosco Shipping to both build and operate the port exclusively.[i] According to the article, Peruvian regulators have rejected Cosco’s exclusivity, declaring it incompatible with having built the port under domestic law.[ii] As per the second excerpted article from Infobae, Cosco has said it will initiate legal action against Peruvian regulators, insisting on its economic model of exclusivity. The fallout from the Port of Chancay legal wrangling is notable, and likely to have a lasting impact. China sees the moment as precedent-setting for other countries with Chinese state-owned enterprises controlling key infrastructure projects, while Peru finds itself in a major bind after years of burgeoning Chinese influence over strategic sectors in the country. If Cosco manages to win exclusive control of Chancay, China will further solidify its control over strategic infrastructure in the Western Hemisphere; if Peru manages to safeguard its autonomy, it may furnish a blueprint for other regional powers willing to test the limits of China’s infrastructure ownership models.

Sources:

Source: “El ‘error administrativo’ que pone en jaque al Perú: dio el control total a China del Megapuerto de Chancay (The ‘administrative error’ that puts Peru in check: it gave China full control of the Chancay Megaport),” Infobae (an Argentine outlet with excellent regional coverage), 14 May 2024. https://www.infobae.com/peru/2024/05/14/el-error-administrativo-que-pone-en-jaque-al-peru-dio-el-control-total-a-china-del-megapuerto-de-chancay/  

With a projected investment of more than three billion, China is now bringing out its true intentions and at the same time taking advantage of an ‘administrative error’ on the part of Peruvian officials by granting operational exclusivity to Cosco, which has put the project in check…a situation that the National Port Authority of Peru is currently trying to solve…The Peruvian government assumed that the Chinese shipping giant would simply use the port of which it will be the majority owner and would not have exclusive rights over it. But during the negotiations, Cosco somehow obtained precisely these rights. Now the National Port Authority is trying to rescind the exclusivity, claiming it made a mistake…The Chinese company, however, remains firm and even hints that it could withdraw if it does not obtain exclusive access.

Source: “Megapuerto de Chancay: Cosco Shipping no da su brazo a torcer y anuncia sus acciones legales por conflicto con el Estado peruano (Chancay Megaport: Cosco Shipping does not give in and announces its legal actions due to conflict with the Peruvian State),” Infobae (an Argentine outlet with excellent regional coverage), 8 May 2024. https://www.infobae.com/peru/2024/05/07/megapuerto-de-chancay-consorcio-chino-no-dara-su-brazo-a-torcer-y-anuncia-sus-acciones-legales-por-conflicto-con-el-estado-peruano/  Through a statement, the Chinese consortium Cosco Shipping Ports Chancay Peru SA, in charge of the megaproject, recognized that the port infrastructure work in the country has been ‘seriously harmed’ by a change in the regulatory scheme…the company reported that they have found it necessary to initiate legal actions to defend its operating model and ensure its classification as private infrastructure, despite the public benefits it offers.

Notes:

[i] At an earlier period, U.S. officials warned Peru about China exerting control and exclusivity over Chancay. See: Michael Stott and Joe Daniels, “U.S. Raises Concern with Peru over Chinese Control of Infrastructure,” Financial Times, 3 October 2023. https://www.ft.com/content/2c77be69-60d7-4d5c-a0c6-c7978bde3888

[ii] According to noted analyst Elisabeth Braw, this situation is likely the result of Peru failing to read the fine print of the agreement. See: Elisabeth Braw, “Peru Learns to Read the Fine Print in China Deals,” Foreign Policy, 13 May 2024. https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/13/peru-learns-to-read-the-fine-print-in-china-deals/

Potential Flashpoint Stemming From Undersea Data Cable Network Access Restrictions

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Underwater fiber optic cable on the ocean floor

China has arisen as an economic superpower rivaling the U.S. and now consumes large amounts of data… [however] China’s presence in subsea cable networks is fading rapidly.”

The United States is working with global technology companies, and regional neighbors, to actively exclude China from future undersea cable networks that will connect the region to the rest of the world according to the excerpted article from Japan-based Nikkei news agency. Subsea cables form the backbone of the exchange of global information, carrying 99% of the world’s data traffic—including information considered important to national security. While the Nikkei article doesn’t delve into the geopolitical concerns between the United States and China, the move to restrict the flow of data available to China via these undersea cables, should be seen as a mechanism to isolate China. China, which was once expected to be the future hub for subsea networks that form vital arteries of international communication, is on schedule to receive only three cables laid after this year. All three to Hong Kong, which was relatively more independent when the contracts to lay those undersea cables were struck. By comparison, in the next few years an additional 11 cables are scheduled to be laid in the region: four cables to Japan and seven to Singapore. According to a researcher interviewed for the article, the moves to isolate China from the conduit that carries global information is manifestation of a “subsea cold war” going on between the United States and its partners and China.[i] The U.S. process to isolate China began in 2020 when the Trump administration, “adopted The Clean Network initiative[ii] to freeze Chinese businesses out of telecom infrastructure projects.” This initiative has continued under the Biden administration, citing the “need to ensure data security.”[iii] The article notes that with the decrease in this important data conduit, the share of data centers in China will stay stagnant or begin to recede as well, while increasing in other Asian countries such as Japan, Philippines, and Southeast Asia. This hi-tech form of economic blockade will be a risk to China as its technology prowess begins to lag behind its regional competitors. These second and third order of effects make the subsea cable issue another potential flashpoint between U.S. – China relations, which given the numerous flashpoints between the two super powers, could result in additional tension and possible military action.[iv]

Sources:

Kentaro Takeda, “More subsea cables bypass China as Sino-U.S. tensions grow,” Nikkei, 11 May 2024. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/More-subsea-cables-bypass-China-as-Sino-U.S.-tensions-grow?utm_campaign=IC_asia_daily_free&utm_medium=email&utm_source=NA_newsletter&utm_content=article_link&del_type=1&pub_date=20240513123000&seq_num=3&si=91811959-21c4-44f4-9028-13136a8d0104

Growing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China have begun to affect the flow of global data due to an expected sharp fall in new undersea cables linking China with the rest of the world…

China is expected to see only three cables laid after this year — fewer than half the number planned for Singapore. The lack of undersea projects is also expected to weigh on the construction of data centers in the country.

Subsea cables form the backbone of the internet, carrying 99% of the world’s data traffic. Roughly 140,000 kilometers of such cables will be completed this year, three times more than five years ago… The increase reflects growing demand for data traffic prompted by the spread of video streaming and cloud services.

On April 10, Google announced a $1 billion project to build two submarine cables to connect Japan, Guam and Hawaii…The leaders said in a joint statement that they welcomed the investment “to improve digital communications infrastructure between the United States, Japan and Pacific Island Nations.”

Behind this seemingly coordinated public-private initiative was “the subsea cold war” between the U.S. and China, said TeleGeography’s research director, Alan Mauldin.

China has arisen as an economic superpower rivaling the U.S. and now consumes large amounts of data. Fifteen 1,000-km-plus submarine cables, all put into use since 1994, link China and the rest of the world….

The tide began to change around 2020, when the U.S., led by then-President Donald Trump, adopted the Clean Network initiative to freeze Chinese businesses out of telecom infrastructure projects. The U.S. has since kept this tough stance against Beijing, citing the need to ensure data security…

China’s presence in subsea cable networks is fading rapidly. Three international cables to connect Hong Kong are due for completion in 2025, but no undersea projects are scheduled for the country thereafter. There are plans to lay four cables to Japan and seven to Singapore after 2024. In addition, nine cables will be laid to Guam, midway between the U.S. mainland and Southeast Asia.Subsea cables and call centers are two pillars of digital infrastructure that move large amounts of data. Their presence could determine the power and influence of host countries and the businesses operating within them.

Notes:

[i] See: “US-China tech war’s new battleground: undersea internet cables,” South China Morning Post,” 14 December 2019. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3042058/us-china-tech-wars-new-battleground-undersea-internet-cables

[ii] For more information on The Clean Network, see U.S. Department of State summary. https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-clean-network/

[iii] In 2021 Google and Facebook announced they had halted efforts to lay undersea cable connecting California and Hong Kong due to U.S.-China tension. See: “Google, Facebook unveil new Asia undersea data cable plan linking Singapore, Japan, others,” South China Morning Post, 16 August 2021. https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3145253/google-facebook-unveil-new-asia-undersea-data-cable-plan?campaign=3145253&module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article

[iv] The gradual restricting of subsea cables to China is occurring at the same time that the U.S. officials are warning that existing subsea cables could be sabotaged or tampered with by Chinese maintenance vessels contracted to maintain existing subsea cables. See: “U.S. Fears Undersea Cables Are Vulnerable to Espionage From Chinese Repair Ships,” The Wall Street Journal, 19 May 2024. https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/china-internet-cables-repair-ships-93fd6320

Image Information:
Image: Underwater fiber optic cable on the ocean floor
Source: https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/article/protecting-submarine-cables-enhanced-connectivity-subsea/155612/
Attribution: CC by 4.0

China Introduces People’s Liberation Army-Information Support Force

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“The Information Support Force is a newly created strategic force and a key support for coordinating the construction and application of network information systems. It plays an important role and has a major responsibility in promoting the high-quality development of the army and winning modern wars.”

On 19 April, the Chinese Communist Party joined the Central Military Commission to unveil the new People’s Liberation Army-Information Support Force (PLA-ISF), a strategic arm of the PLA responsible for overseeing the development and application of the network information system. The PLA-ISF appears to have replaced the PLA Strategic Support Force, which was responsible for strategic missions including space-based intelligence, reconnaissance, electronic countermeasures, signals intelligence, information warfare, and communications.[i] The role and responsibilities of the PLA-ISF are expected to be much broader and will integrate artificial intelligence into military operations.

While there are still few specifics available about the PLA-ISF, the first article, published in one of Asia’s largest English-language pan-Asia digital news platforms, Asia Times, opines that the aim of the PLA-ISF is to “better integrate emerging AI, Quantum, and other technologies into multi-domain operational concept against the United States and its allies.” The author argues that this new development underscores the importance to the PLA of shifting its warfare strategy from informationized to intelligentized.  The establishment of the PLA-ISF is being hailed as a significant move. According to the second excerpted article from the PLA’s official newspaper PLA Daily, the PLA-ISF is the key support for coordinating the construction and application of network information systems.  It will improve the army’s joint combat capability and multi-domain combat capability by having a network information system at its core. Finally, it will help to achieve China’s goal of becoming a world-class force by  the 100th anniversary of the founding the PLA in 2027. This sentiment is echoed in the third excerpted article published on the website of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense. In it, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, Director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense, gave a press conference in which he explained that establishing the PLA-ISF will accelerate the pace of China’s national defense and military modernization and give the country “the ability to fight and win in modern warfare.”

Sources:

Gabriel Honrada, “New PLA Unit Underscores Intelligentized Warfare Shift,” Asia Times, (one of the region’s largest English-language pan-Asia digital news platforms.), 22 April 2024. https://asiatimes.com/2024/04/new-pla-unit-underscores-intelligentized-warfare-shift/

PLA-ISF aims to better integrate emerging AI, quantum and other technologies into multi-domain operational concept against the US and its allies.

China has just unveiled its People’s Liberation Army-Information Support Force (PLA-ISF), a rebranding of its previous PLA-Strategic Support Force (PLA-SSF) to reflect new responsibilities and capabilities and guide the military’s technology-driven integrated combat concept, Chinese state media reports said.

In contrast to traditional PLA services such as the Ground Force, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force, the PLA’s strategic arms, such as the Aerospace Force, Cyberspace Force and Joint Logistics Support, focus on more specialized areas critical to modern warfare.

Source:  “解放军报评论员：努力建设一支强大的现代化信息支援部队 (PLA Daily Commentator: Strive to Build a Strong Modern Information Support Force),” Chinese Ministry of National Defense, reposted from PLA Daily (Official newspaper of the PLA), 20 April 2024. http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/16302172.html

… As a newly created strategic branch of the military, the information support force is the key support for the coordinated construction and application of network information systems, and plays an important role in promoting the high-quality development of our army and winning the battle against the enemy. The information support force plays an important role and has great responsibilities in modern warfare. Reform will be successful and a strong army can be expected. The establishment of the information support force will definitely help improve our army’s joint combat capability and all-domain combat capability based on the network information system, and will definitely help achieve the goal of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the army as scheduled and accelerate the construction of the people’s army into a world-class army.

The reform and strengthening of the army is in full swing, and the clarion call is sounded to open a new chapter. At present, the entire army is going all out to fight a tough battle to achieve the goal of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the army. The responsibility is heavy and the mission is urgent.

Source: “信息支援部队是全新打造的战略性兵种 (The Information Support Force is a New Strategic Branch of the Military),” Chinese Ministry of National Defense website, 19 April 2024. http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/qwfb/16302053.html

Question: The conference inaugurates the Information Support Force. What kind of force is it?Wu Qian: The adjustment and establishment of information support forces is a major decision made by the CPC Central Committee and the Central Military Commission from the overall perspective of strengthening the military. It is a strategic move to build a new type of military structure and layout and improve the modern military force system with Chinese characteristics. It has great and far-reaching significance for accelerating the modernization of national defense and the military and effectively fulfilling the mission and tasks of the people’s army in the new era…

Notes:

[i] China’s Strategic Support Force was responsible for strategic missions including space-based intelligence, reconnaissance, electronic countermeasures, signals intelligence, information warfare, and communications. See Kevin McCauley, “People’s Liberation Army Changing Mission Of Civilian Personnel,” OE Watch, 06-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/peoples-liberation-army-changing-mission-of-civilian-personnel/; and Tim Thomas, “China’s New ‘4+2’ Service Branch Structure,” OE Watch, Volume 06, Issue 10, p27. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-past-issues/195241

China Unveils Its Most Advanced Aircraft Carrier

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China’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian, docks at the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai.

“The construction of the People’s Navy aircraft carriers has achieved a remarkable transformation from nothing to something.”

On 1 May 2024, China’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian, began its maiden sea trial[i] marking a pivotal stride in Chinese power projection. The Fujianis the largest and most advanced carrier in China’s fleet and will significantly enhance Beijing’s capacity to project power over greater distances and expand its ‘blue water’ capabilities.

According to the first excerpted article published by one of China’s largest internet companies NetEase, Fujian is China’s first domestically designed and built aircraft carrier featuring an electromagnetic catapult system. This key capability allows Fujian to launch heavier and larger aircraft than its predecessors, the Liaoning [RG1]  and the Shandong [RG2]. With increased payload capacity and extended range, Fujian enhances the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN)  ‘blue-water’ capabilities.[ii] Notably, Fujian surpasses its predecessors in tonnage and technological capabilities. Its construction also underscores China’s growing expertise in domestic carrier construction and development, marking a departure from reliance on Soviet designs. After completing sea trials and officially entering service, Fujian will significantly advance the PLAN capabilities, marking the beginning of the “three carrier era,” wherein one carrier can undergo maintenance, another can maintain training readiness, and the third can undertake carrier presence operations in strategically important maritime areas.

The second excerpt, published by the Chinese Communist Party newspaper China Daily, states that the sea trials of Fujian may be considerably longer than its two predecessors. This is due to Fujian’s technology upgrades, particularly the electromagnetic catapult, the evolution from a Soviet foundation, and its ability to accommodate additional equipment and aircraft. Further, an expert cited in the article details that Fujian’s sea trials will be divided into two primary components: equipment and personnel.[iii] He states that sea trials related to equipment are based on six characteristics, reliability, maintainability, testability, supportability, environmental adaptability, and safety. The sea trials related to personnel include habitability and people’s experience of the work environment. While the recent launch of Fujian marks significant progress for China, the United States still maintains a considerable lead in aircraft carrier application, experience, and technology.[iv] The US Navy’s operational experience with carriers, dating back to World War II, provides a depth of knowledge that China cannot match. Through decades of maritime experience, the US Navy has developed a mature and highly effective doctrine for carrier combat operations, integrating them into broader joint and combined arms strategies. In contrast, the PLAN lacks this historical, practical, and combat experience.[v] Despite this, through rigorous sea trials, Fujian will not only enhance China’s technological prowess but also gain invaluable operational experience, positioning itself for greater maritime prominence in the future.

Sources:

Fu Qianshao, “超燃！我国将进入“三航母时代”！(Super Hot! My Country Enters the “3 Aircraft Carrier Era), Netease (one of China’s largest internet companies, subject to regulatory oversight and censorship by China’s Cyberspace Administration), 02 May 2024. https://m.163.com/dy/article/J16ADKLT0514R9KQ.html

On June 17, 2022, China marked the launch and naming of its third aircraft carrier, christened ‘Fujian Ship of the People’s Liberation Army Navy.’ On May 1, 2024, the carrier embarked on its inaugural sea trial. With the addition of Fujian, China now boasts three aircraft carriers, each with unique performance and combat capabilities, joining the Liaoning and Shandong in its naval fleet.

The Liaoning, originally a Soviet carrier commissioned in 1985, serves as China’s inaugural aircraft carrier, boasting a 60,000-ton displacement. Despite its origins, extensive upgrades have rendered it a crucial asset for China’s maritime and aerial operations expansion. In contrast, the Shandong represents China’s first indigenous medium-sized aircraft carrier, featuring a design, development, and construction entirely undertaken within the country. Slightly larger than the Liaoning, the Shandong features an expanded flight deck and significant advancements in internal systems, elevators, and shipboard weaponry. The latest addition, Fujian, marks a significant technological leap for China’s naval capabilities. As the country’s first carrier equipped with an electromagnetic catapult system, Fujian boasts a load displacement exceeding 80,000 tons, surpassing its predecessors in both size and technological sophistication.

As with new surface vessels across naval fleets worldwide, Fujian will undergo rigorous sea trials before entering active service. These trials encompass two primary aspects: equipment and personnel evaluation. Equipment trials scrutinize the ship’s reliability, maintainability, testability, supportability, environmental resilience, and safety standards. Meanwhile, personnel trials assess aspects such as habitability and operational effectiveness.

With the successful completion of sea trials and Fujian’s official commissioning, it is poised to significantly advance the capabilities of the PLAN. This heralds the commencement of the ‘three carrier era,’ wherein one aircraft carrier can undergo maintenance, another can maintain training readiness, and the third can undertake crucial carrier presence operations in strategically important maritime areas.

With its adoption of cutting-edge electromagnetic catapult technology, Fujian will have a higher dispatch rate for carrier-based aircraft compared to its predecessors. Furthermore, its integration of domestically developed technologies underscores China’s commitment to indigenous innovation and self-reliance. Through rigorous sea trials, the PLAN will not only enhance its technological prowess but also gain invaluable operational experience, positioning itself for greater maritime prominence in the future.

Source: Gao Linlin, “你好，18舰！欢迎，福建舰！(Hello, Ship 18! Welcome, Fujian Ship!),” China Daily (a daily newspaper owned by the Publicity Department of the Chinese Communist Party), 02 May 2024. https://cn.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202405/02/WS6633074fa3109f7860ddc054.html

On 01 May 2024, China’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian, unmoored and set sail from the docks of Jiangnan Shipyard to conduct its inaugural sea trials. These sea trials aim to access the reliability and stability of Fujian’s power, electricity, and other essential systems. Fujian stands as a significant emblem of the navy’s evolution and the emergence of high-quality combat forces. The rapid expansion of China’s aircraft carrier force underscores a deliberate effort to enhance combat capabilities. Progressing from a single carrier to three, China has charted a distinct trajectory in the construction of its aircraft carrier force, reflecting a transformation tailored with Chinese characteristics.

Before new ships are commissioned, navies worldwide conduct sea trials to assess their performance across various metrics through actual navigation at sea. The sea trials of Fujian are divided into two primary components: equipment and personnel evaluation. Equipment trials scrutinize reliability, maintainability, testability, supportability, environmental adaptability, and safety. Concurrently, personnel trials focus on factors such as habitability and operational experience within the work environment.

Fujian marks a significant leap forward in technology and tonnage compared to its predecessors, garnering attention as the first Chinese aircraft carrier not based on a Soviet template. With its considerably larger tonnage, Fujian has increased capacity to accommodate additional equipment and aircraft. Furthermore, the incorporation of new technologies such as the electromagnetic catapult underscores its cutting-edge capabilities. Given these substantial upgrades and the absence of a Soviet foundation, the sea trials for Fujian may be longer compared to those of the two previous carriers.With the official commissioning of Fujian, the navy will transition into a ‘three carrier era,’ facilitating a rotation system where one carrier can undergo repairs, another can maintain training readiness, and the third can engage in combat training. This strategic deployment enables the PLAN to always ensure the presence of an aircraft carrier in strategically important sea areas. Furthermore, equipped with an electromagnetic catapult, Fujian is poised to play a pivotal role in executing key tasks within critical maritime domains.

Notes:

[i] To watch the full CCTV-7 video report of Fujian’s unmooring, see CCTV’s video post, CCTV, 02 May 2024.

https://tv.cctv.com/2024/05/02/VIDEtGTVEkVgMH4Cp34Hli4M240502.shtml?spm=C53074552346.P4BWJvVoMUky.S51904.6

[ii] Brandon Lendon, “China’s newest aircraft carrier heads to sea for first time,” CNN, 01 May 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/01/china/china-navy-newest-aircraft-carrier-fujian-sea-trial-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

[iii] CCTV-13 features a special military commentator, a former PLAN officer commissioned from Dalian Academy, to provide insights into Fujian’s sea trials, CCTV-13 News Channel, 09 May 2204. https://tv.cctv.com/2024/05/09/VIDEYJxMXBbSzJFnn5zSoBNr240509.shtml

[iv] Greg Torode, Eduardo Baptista, Tim Kelly, “China’s aircraft carriers play ‘theatrical’ role but pose little threat yet” Reuters. 05 May 2023. https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-aircraft-carriers-play-theatrical-role-pose-little-threat-yet-2023-05-05/

 [v] Benjamin Brimelow, “US vs. Chinese aircraft carriers: How the world’s top flattops stack up,” Business Insider,01 June 2024. https://www.businessinsider.com/us-vs-chinese-navy-aircraft-carriers-2024-5

Image Information:

Image: China’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian, docks at the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai.  
Source: https://english.news.cn/20240501/72b54c6bb8f34058a011c44971de3c0e/c.html
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

Russia To Reintroduce Military Training Into High Schools

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“The course of basic military training (NVP) will again appear in schools from next year.”

The accompanying excerpted article from the official Russian Government daily newspaper, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, discusses Russian plans to reintroduce a “basic military training” course into high schoolers’ educational curricu- lum. In Soviet times, rudimentary military skills (small arms familiarization, first aid, close order drill, etc.) were taught to all students, with differing training regimens for male and female students. These courses were supplemented by the Volunteer Society for Cooperation with the Army, Aviation, and Navy (DOSAAF), a paramilitary organization that sponsors after-school activities involving militarily useful skills associated with sports, weapons, automobiles, and aviation.1 Although military training was removed from the high school curriculum in the 1990s, DOSAAF has remained in continuous operation. Undoubtedly, the reintroduction of military training into high school curriculums is directly related to ongoing events in Ukraine, continuing the trend of the growing militarization of Russian civil society.

Source:

Maria Agranovich, “Курс начальной военной подготовки вернется в школьную программу в 2023 году (The course of basic military training will return to school curriculums in 2023),” Rossiyskaya Gazeta (official Russian Government daily newspaper), 9 November 2022. https://rg.ru/2022/11/10/klass-na-marshe.html

The course of basic military training (NVP) will again appear in schools from next year.2

This was announced by the Minister of Education of Russia Sergey Kravtsov. “We will prepare such a course before January 1, 2023, then it will be tested, and schools will be able to use it from the next academic year,” Kravtsov said.

Recall that the “basic military training” course was removed from school curriculums in the 1990s, and discussion of its return started this spring. Now the Ministry of Education plans to integrate this knowledge into the Federal Basic Educational Program for students in 10-11 grade, the draft of which is posted on the Internet for public discussion. This training will not be taught as a separate subject, but as modules within the course “Fundamentals of Life Safety” (OBZh).

In the draft educational program for high school students in the course “OBZh” there are two options for program, one of which is basic and contains the usual sections about safety at home, in transport, in society and in natural conditions, as well as basic knowledge of state security, defense and the basics of military service.
In the second version there is a separate module “Elements of initial military training.” In this version there is training on close order drill, military greetings, and small arms. Pupils in grades 10-11 will learn how to provide first aid and get acquainted with personal protective equipment…

Notes:

[1] Volunteer Society for Cooperation with the Army, Aviation, and Navy (DOSAAF) [Добровольное общество содействия армии, авиации и флоту (ДОСААФ)].

[2] Basic military training (NVP) [начальной военной подготовки (НВП)].

Iran Highlights Recent Missile Achievements

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The Shafagh missile on display. The sign at the bottom reads “Death to Israel” in both Persian and Arabic.

“Iran is among the four countries with hypersonic technology.”

In the wake of simulated test fires and direct strikes on Israel, the semi-official Iranian news outlet Mehr News Agency highlighted the previous year’s missile developments. The Mehr News Agency article states some of Iran’s missiles are short-range, deployable on helicopters, and designed for use both on land and at sea. This reflects Iran’s growing military capability in the Persian Gulf and over the rough terrain of the Makran Coast, once a relatively lawless backwater whose strategic importance has grown as Iran seeks to develop a greater footprint in the northern Indian Ocean. The article suggests that Iran is focused on the development of smart weapons capable of identifying new targets while en route rather than simply being point-and-shoot. Such claims likely reflect actual progress, as the Iranian military has succeeded in developing all-weather GPS guided drones. The article also describes the Khorramshahr-4 missile in greater detail than others in its arsenal, a possible indication that Iranian reports regarding the Khorramshahr-4’s ongoing development may be accurate. Given its touted range and the explosive power of its warhead, deployment of the Khorramshahr-4 in large numbers could significantly change the operational environment across the region. The Persian Gulf, northern Indian Ocean, Red Sea, and Eastern Mediterranean, are within range and could be targeted although it is unclear if it would be successful against Israeli missile defense. The article reflects Iran’s aspirations to build the weapons necessary to alter the region’s decades-long status quo.

OE Insight Summary:

IRN continues to diversify its missile arsenal and extend their range and capabilities. Even if IRN claims about hypersonic capability are false, the IRN missile threat now extends from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean.

Sources:

” دستاورد موشکی در سال ۱۴۰۲ ۸”(Eight Missile Achievements in Year 2023-24),” Mehr News Agency (semi-official news agency owned by Iranian government’s Islamic Development Organization), 21 March 2024. https://www.mehrnews.com/news/6057908

In Persian year 1402 [20 March 2023 – 19 March 2024], developments in the missile field experienced a glorious period. In this year, we revealed several strategic and precision missiles, such as the hypersonic “Fatah,” the “Paveh,” and the ballistic Khorramshahr-4.

Below we briefly examine the capabilities of some of the most important indigenous missiles unveiled during the Persian year:

  • Shafagh Missile: On 4 January 2024, Maj. Gen. Sayyed Abdolrahim Mousavi, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, presided over a ceremony unveiling the upgraded Shafaq missile. The Shafaq missile is accurate up to a range of 12 miles.[i]
  • Qadr-29: On the same day, the Qadr-29 missile system with a range of 100 miles, equipped with four-kilogram warheads, was also unveiled. It is used in suicide and reconnaissance operations. This missile system can also be installed on all types of [Bell] 206 helicopters….
  • Haider Cruise Missile: The commander-in-chief of the army also unveiled the Haider long-range cruise missile. This missile system can also be installed on most helicopters equipped with heat-seeking warhead with a range of 120 miles…. Thus system is able to target all land and sea targets in difficult mountainous terrain, sea coasts, and sandy and desert areas with minimum time and with maximum surprise….
  • Talaiyeh and Nasir Cruise Missiles. The Talaiyeh missile system was added to the regular navy this past year. This missile has a range of more than 600 miles and is smart, with the ability to autonomous detect and adjust to new targets during its flight…. The Nasir Maritime Cruise Missile was deployed to the third maritime zone this year. It is a smart missile with a range of 60 miles, and it has very high destructive capability….
  • Paveh Cruise Missile. On 22 September 2023, the long-range Paveh ground cruise missile was unveiled during an armed forces’ parade near the Holy Shrine of Imam Khomeini.
  • Hypersonic Fattah Missile. On 6 June 2023, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Aerospace Force was unveiled at its headquarters in the presence of President Ebrahim Raisi, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander-in-Chief Maj.-Gen. Hossein Salami and Revolutionary Guard Aerospace Force Commander General Amir Ali Hajizadeh. With the unveiling of this missile, Iran became one of the four countries with this technology…. Hajizadeh stated at the ceremony of the unveiling of the hypersonic Fattah missile, stated, “The missile that was unveiled today is a missile that is unique in the world, so that with the launch of this missile Iran is among the four countries with hypersonic technology….”
  • Khorramshahr-4 Long-Range Strategic Missile. The Khorramshahr-4 long-range strategic missile was another missile unveiled in 2023-24. On 25 May 2023, on the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr [during the Iran-Iraq War], the Khomrramshahr-4 long-range strategic missile was unveiled in the presence of Minister of Defense Mohammad-Reza Gharaei Ashtiani. The Khorramshahr missile is one of the most advanced missiles designed by experts of the Aerospace Organization of the Ministry of Defense. It has a range of 1,200 miles and is equipped with a severe blast type combat head weighing 3,300 pounds. The rocket is equipped with one of the most advanced liquid fuel engines to create tactical capabilities and is designed in such a way that the engine is placed in a fuel tank, which reduces the length of the rocket to about 40 feet
  • Fattah-2 Hypersonic Missile. On 19 November 2023, His Excellency Ayatollah Khamenei, the commander-in-chief, visited Ashura University of Aerospace Sciences and Technologies for an hour and a half to see the latest achievements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In this exhibition, which included missile, drone, defense and space products, young scientists from the Aerospace Force displayed their achievements under the slogan, “From Idea to All-Iranian Product.”  … [Here,] the Fattah-2 hypersonic cruise missile, classified as a hypersonic glide vehicle was unveiled.

Notes:

[i] For previous discussion of the Shafagh, see: Michael Rubin, “Iran Installs New Precision Missiles On Army Helicopters,” OE Watch, 05 2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/iran-installs-new-precision-missiles-on-army-helicopters/

Image Information:

Image: The Shafagh missile on display. The sign at the bottom reads “Death to Israel” in both Persian and Arabic.
Source: https://media.mehrnews.com/d/2024/02/03/3/4842101.jpg?ts=1706943630686
Attribution: Mehr News Agency

India Successfully Tests Agni-V Ballistic Missile Upgrade

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Agni-V ICBM Range Envelope centered at Integrated Test Range, Odissa. Declared range of 5500 km in pale indigo and estimated expanded range of 7000+ km in faded circumference.

“The opacity surrounding this MIRV missile is about the number of warheads it can carry, which in all likelihood would remain classified.”

India’s ability to carry out a strategic or tactical nuclear strike has been limited compared to that of its adversary, China. However, in recent years, India has made efforts to match Chinese capabilities. In early March 2024, India announced the successful test of a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) for its Agni-V [R1] ballistic missile, further strengthening India’s nuclear strike capabilities even as it maintains a “no first use” policy.[i] The accompanying excerpted article from the conservative-leaning English-language newspaper The Hindu, reports on the recent MIRV test for the Agni-V and considers what it means for India. The article suggests that with a MIRV capable 3100 mile range Agni-V missile, India has now achieved more balance in its nuclear deterrence capability with China. The article acknowledges that some of its specific capabilities remain unknown, critical being how many warheads it can carry (the authors speculate that it carries three) and whether it can carry decoys. Finally, the article mentions that India’s defense industry will test a long-range submarine-launched ballistic missile, likely the latest variant of the K-series, at some point in the future.[ii] Altogether, the successful MIRV test for the Agni-V, and future testing for its submarine-launched ballistic missile, indicate that India will continue to seek nuclear parity with China.

OE Insight Summary:

In March 2024 IND successfully tested a MIRV, with a reported three-warhead capacity, for its Agni-V ICBM as part of a long-term deterrence effort to match CHN strategic nuclear strike capabilities.

Sources:

Harsh V. Pant and Kartik Bommakanti, “The MIRV leap that fires up India’s nuclear deterrence,” The Hindu (privately owned, conservative-leaning English-language newspaper in India), 19 March 2024. https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-mirv-leap-that-fires-up-indias-nuclear-deterrence/article67965762.ece

The Agni-5 ballistic missile test dubbed the “Divyastra”, that was conducted by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), is strategically consequential. With a range of over 5,000 kilometres, the Agni-5 is the longest-range missile India has tested so far. But it is not simply its range but, equally, its potency which represents a watershed moment for India’s nuclear deterrent. The potency of India’s nuclear deterrent is enhanced because this variant is integrated with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs)…

Though MIRV technology is not new, it is to India…MIRV-tipped missiles are a necessity simply because they strike multiple targets simultaneously and help evade ballistic missiles defences. China is building ballistic missile defences such as the Hongqi (HQ-19) ground-based ballistic missile interceptors, which have been tested, but their capacity to intercept Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMS) such as the Agni-5 is still suspect…

Now that India has integrated the Agni-5 with multiple warheads, greater balance has been restored in the Sino-Indian nuclear deterrent relationship. To be sure, more testing of the MIRV-capable Agni-5 will be required…

The opacity surrounding this MIRV missile is about the number of warheads it can carry, which in all likelihood would remain classified. Going by speculation, it is improbable that it can carry more than three warheads. Further, the yield of the nuclear warheads is likely to be limited due to the small number of atomic tests India has conducted. In addition, it is unclear whether the Agni-5 can carry decoys and chaff, especially during the boost and intermediate phase of the missile’s flight. Agni-5 will in all probability be launched from a road mobile platform.This is a China-specific missile. There could be more to come from the DRDO and AEC with India adding more punch to its nuclear arsenal when it tests a long-range Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM), which India’s nuclear ballistic missile submarines can launch. The Agni-5 with MIRV capability bolsters India’s nuclear capabilities vis-à-vis China. It puts China on notice — that India is preparing itself to counter the advances Beijing has made with its missile and missile defence programmes…

Notes:

[i] India adopted its “no first use” policy shortly after its first successful nuclear test in the late 1990s. In August 2019, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh mentioned that India’s policy might change depending on the circumstances, but India continues to have a no first use policy when it comes to its nuclear arsenal.

[ii] In November 2018, Indian officials announced the country had joined the ranks of nuclear triad governments when the INS Arihant, a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, carried out its first deterrence deployment that month. While India reportedly only maintains the triad when one of its ballistic missile submarines are deployed, the 2018 deployment demonstrated India’s long-term goals of nuclear deterrence. For background, see: Matthew Stein, “Is India’s Nuclear Triad Complete?,” OE Watch, January 2019. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-singular-format/296884