Category Archives: OE Watch

The Race to Incorporate Artificial Intelligence Into Attack Drones in Ukraine

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Russian military prepares Orlan-10 drones for launch during Russia’s Vostok-2018 Maneuvers.

“The Russian Army will receive weaponized drones, operated with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) – their delivery to the troops in the Special Military Operation (SMO) zone is already planned.”

The Russian Defense Ministry has announced that it will incorporate artificial intelligence (AI) into its attack drones to increase their accuracy and precision. According to the excerpted article published by the government news agency RIA News, Russia conducted around 700 successful drone attacks on Ukrainian targets in Avdiivka during the first half of February 2024. The article states that Russia plans to introduce AI to further refine its attack drones as part of a wave of military modernization incorporating more advanced technology and electronics into military systems. The aim is to allow AI to control the drones, increasing the battlefield efficacy of Russia’s drone complex. However, it is important to note that Ukraine is also working to incorporate AI capability in its attack drones. According to the second excerpted article from private Ukrainian media outlet Focus Media, Ukraine’s effort to implement AI on the battlefield has support from the West as well as internally from Ukrainian technology developers. In addition to testing AI-capable drones from the United Kingdom, the Ukrainian Minister for Technology Development reports having more than 20 different teams developing similar technologies. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry believes that AI-capable attack drones could overwhelm Russian positions, while Russia believes the same to be true in reverse. Thus far, Ukraine has developed two AI-capable drones approved for battlefield use, the Saker Scout[i] and SkyKnight2.[ii] While neither Russia nor Ukraine have fully implemented AI into their drone fleets, they are racing against each other to gain this advantage. Should Russia succeed in its goal of increased tactical efficacy in attack drones, it may be able to set a pace of sky-borne destruction that cannot be countered by the Ukrainian and Western technologies currently being employed in the war effort.[iii] AI integrated into attack drones will provide Russia with a technological advantage that is unmatched by regional forces.

Sources:

“Армию России вооружают беспилотниками с искусственным интеллектом (The Russian Army will be armed with drones with artificial intelligence),” RIA News (one of the largest Russian government news agencies), 24 February 2024. https://crimea.ria.ru/20240224/armiyu-rossii-vooruzhayut-bespilotnikami-s-iskusstvennym-intellektom-1135183675.html

The Russian Army will receive weaponized drones, operated with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) – their delivery to the troops in the Special Military Operation (SMO) zone is already planned. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced this during an inspection visit to the Russian central grouping of troops. His words are quoted by the Ministry of Defense. “We have come to this point. This is becoming a pretty serious weapon.” – said the minister, noting that the deliveries of the latest unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to Russian troops will increase the effectiveness of their application.”

… in the last two weeks of February attack drones have destroyed upwards of 700 different enemy targets in Avdiivka, including armored vehicles, artillery systems, radar facilities, and enemy manpower. In particular, during the liberation of Avdiivka the reconnaissance UAV complex, Orlan-30 [R1] , proved itself well…

Based upon the results of the report, Shoigu set the task to further strengthen the Russian central grouping of troops via electronic warfare, chiefly at the tactical level.

A few days prior, the head of the Russian government Mikhail Mishustin gave instructions to maximize the process of modernizing combat systems used as a part of the SMO and to expand their combat capabilities.

Alexander Zalata, “Украина вооружается дронами с ИИ: чем лучше обычных и когда массово появятся на фронте (Ukraine is arming itself with AI drones: better than the usual and when will they appear en masse on the front),” Focus Media (a privately-owned Ukrainian media company), 22 February 2024. https://focus.ua/digital/628357-ukraina-vooruzhaetsya-dronami-s-ii-chem-luchshe-obychnyh-i-kogda-massovo-poyavyatsya-na-fronte

More than 20 teams are already working on artificial intelligence (in drones) and many of them are already in the final stages, but before launching it must be ensured that the UAVs don’t attack everyone. 

In his article, published on the site Ukrainian Truth, the Minister for Technology Development Mikhail Fedorov, wrote that currently around 20 companies are working on developing AI for implementation in UAVs, in particular, the computer vision technologies (CV) for additional guidance. As the official explained, they will allow UAVs to analyze video streams in real-time, to find and identify objects, such as Russian vehicles, manpower, and artillery. 

At the beginning of autumn, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry stated that one of these drones, the Saker Scout, had been approved for use in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Specialists assure that thanks to the newest optical system this drone can independently recognize and record the coordinates of the enemy’s equipment… Later the Defense Ministry allowed yet another Ukrainian-made UAV to be used in the armed forces that is equipped with artificial intelligence and an autonomous flight system – the SkyKnight2. “And this will already be a decisive advantage, because then we can send a swarm of drones either on their own or with a queen, and they will perform the function of an assault unit. There are many problems, but everyone is moving in that direction,” said Alexey Teplukhin.

Notes:

[i] For further information on the AI-enabled Saker Scout drone, from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s Telegram, 4 September 2023. https://t.me/ministry_of_defense_ua/7951?single

[ii] For further information on the AI-enabled SkyKnight2 drone, from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s Telegram, 19 August 2023. https://t.me/ministry_of_defense_ua/7884

[iii] Kristen Thompson, “How the Drone War In Ukraine Is Transforming Conflict,” Council on Foreign Relations, 16 January 2024. https://www.cfr.org/article/how-drone-war-ukraine-transforming-conflict

Image Information:

Image: Russian military prepares Orlan-10 drones for launch during Russia’s Vostok-2018 Maneuvers.
Source:  
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

China’s Initiates Push To Establish a Military Base in Gabon

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The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation has become a core component of China’s promoting its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

“[Transitional President of Gabon] Nguema’s regime may not be transparent and may allow China to establish a permanent [naval] presence in Gabon.”

Gabon has become a key nation for China to expand its political, economic and, increasingly, military influence in Africa. Not only has China become Gabon’s primary trading partner, the two countries also upgraded their relations to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership when their foreign ministers met in Beijing last October.[i] Questions remain about whether China will develop naval bases or station troops in Gabon under Gabon’s new leadership, which came to power two months before the foreign ministers’ landmark meeting.

On 13 February, the Taiwanese newspaper Shijie Ribao, published the excerpted article on Bejing’s efforts to station troops in Gabon under the country’s former president, Ali Bongo. Had President Bongo not been overthrown by his own presidential guard in August 2023, China may have already been on the path to meeting that goal.[ii] Gabon could, therefore, have become the first country to provide China access to sought-after Atlantic Ocean naval bases.[iii]

The article also claims that although President Bongo’s successor, General Brice Oligui Nguema, states he will not allow any Chinese bases in Gabon, he may eventually prove unable or unwilling to resist Chinese pressure. Gabon is a uniquely oil-rich country, which, in addition to its strategic location, could make it more attractive for China to assert its influence beyond its geopolitical position. China has already built base and port infrastructure in East Africa, such as its naval base in Djibouti. However, stationing troops in West Africa has remained elusive. Should a Chinese naval base be built in Gabon, it would represent a victory for China’s global Belt and Road Initiative.[iv]

Sources:

“美中非洲角力 传北京拟于加蓬驻军未果 (U.S.-China rivalry over Africa: Beijing plans to station troops in Gabon but fails),” worldjournal.com (Largest Chinese-language newspaper in the U.S, which is moderately critical of the Chinese Communist Party), 13 February 2024. https://www.worldjournal.com/wj/story/121480/7767824?zh-cn

Bongo, the former president of Gabon, revealed he promised Beijing to station its troops [in Gabon], but Bongo was later overthrown by his own presidential guard.

According to the Chinese government, Chinese companies have constructed around 100 commercial ports in Africa since 2000, from Mauritania on the western end of Africa to Kenya on the Indian Ocean coast. But there is currently only one African port that has been built as a permanent base that can dock Chinese ships and troops. This was built by the People’s Liberation Army in Djibouti seven years ago. Aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines can dock at this Chinese base.Even though Nguema states that he understands the U.S.’s concerns, senior U.S. officials also expressed concerns that Nguema’s regime may not be transparent and may allow China to establish a permanent presence in Gabon.

Notes:

[i] Fmprc.gov.cn, “Wang Yi Meets with Gabonese Foreign Minister Hermann Immongault,” October 7, 2023, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202307/t20230725_11117519.html#:~:text=In%20April%20this%20year%2C%20President,the%20development%20of%20bilateral%20relations.

[ii] The overthrow of Ali Bongo on 30 August 2023 was related to the overthrow only five weeks earlier of Niger’s president Mohamed Bazoum by his own military entourage. Ali Bongo had been officially declared the winner of Gabon’s presidential election for his third term in office. However, a group of military officers, who were influenced by the events in Niger and were displeased with Ali Bongo’s attempt to continue his tenure as Gabon’s leader, announced his removal from office, arrested him, and suspended the constitution. Besides Niger, Guinea (September 2021), Mali (August 2020 and May 2021), Burkina Faso (January 2022) had also underwent coups before Gabon’s, which made attempting a coup in Gabon more palatable in the region, and especially among other post-coup countries. See “Question Time: Situation in west and central Africa in the light of the recent coups d’état,” European Parliament, Plenary—September 2023. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2023/751465/EPRS_ATA(2023)751465_EN.pdf

[iii] On Beijing’s plans to establish a naval base in Gabon, see North Africa Post, “Ousted Ali Bongo nodded to establishment of Chinese military base despite concerns of France, U.S.A.,” September 8, 2023, https://northafricapost.com/71098-ousted-ali-bongo-nodded-to-establishment-of-chinese-military-base-despite-concerns-of-france-u-s-a.html

[iv] For more information on the BRI’s previous expansion, see Les Grau, “China Belt and Road Initiative Test on Trans-Eurasian Rail,” OE Watch, September 2020. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/360893

Image Information:

Image: The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation has become a core component of China’s promoting its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Source: Stephen Walli https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Forum_on_China-Africa_Cooperation.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

China Accuses United States of Being Largest Proliferator of Space Militarization

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Long March 5 Y7 Carrier Rocket Launch Preparation on 23 February 2024.

“The United States uses the so-called threats from other countries as an excuse to expand its military power. China is firmly opposed to this.”

China is downplaying U.S. concerns over Beijing’s intentions in the space domain, and instead, claiming that the U.S. is the state most responsible for the militarization of space. The first excerpted article from Chinese state-owned media outlet The Paper, reported that General Stephen Whiting, Commander of the United States Space Force, expressed strong concerns about China’s rapid development of space military capabilities, describing China as a “major threat” in the space domain and the pace of development as “alarming.”[i] The second excerpt from China’s Ministry of Defense offers China’s official response. Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, criticized the U.S. for using “so-called threats” from other countries as excuses to expand its own military power in space. Zhang also accused the U.S. as the biggest promoter of space militarization, while firmly asserting that China insists on the peaceful use of space, opposes a space arms race, and urges the U.S. to cease spreading false statements and to refrain from expanding its arms and war preparations in space. Chinese rhetoric of peaceful space development follows the release of the 2023 “Blue Book” by China’s Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation. The document declares China’s plans to conduct a record-breaking 100 launch missions in 2024, including 70 space mission launches, involving 290 spacecraft, and a series of major carrier rocket tests.[ii] China sent an experimental communication satellite into space on 23 February 2024. The launch marks the eleventh satellite launched by China under a classified military program, with no additional details publicly disclosed by state media, except that the satellite will primarily be used for “multi-band and high-speed communication technology experiments.”[iii] In the past six months, China has launched more than 15 Yaogan reconnaissance satellites, primarily to support the People’s Liberation Army’s Strategic Support Force.[iv] The Yaogan-41, launched on 20 December 2023, involved a military geostationary earth observation/signals intelligence satellite that provides unprecedented capabilities for tracking and identifying U.S. and allied movements in the Indo-Pacific region.[v]

Sources:

Yan Shanshan, “美高官：在这一领域，中国正以惊人速度发展 (US senior official: In this field, China is developing at astonishing speed),” The Paper (official Chinese site), 03 March 2024. https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_26540782

Stephen Whiting, commander of the US Space Command, testifies to the US SASC that China has “dramatically improved its ability to monitor, track and target US and allied forces on Earth and in orbit.” The top commander declared space as a “expanding security challenge”, with China and Russia identified as the main competitors. Space is now deemed the “core of security activities in all fields,” and China is committed to making progress in satellite meteorology, manned spaceflights, robotic space explorations, and the ability to track and target US and allied forces. Furthermore, General Whiting said that China “will reach world-class levels in all fields except a few areas of space technology by 2030.”

Ye Mengyuan, “美国是太空军事化战场化的最大推手” (The United States is the biggest promoter of militarization of space),” China Ministry of National Defense (Ministry of National Defense Website), 29 February 2024. http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/qwfb/16289660.htmlSenior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, deputy director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense and spokesperson of the Ministry of National Defense, responded to a reporter’s question regarding China’s comments on the United States strategic competition in space, long range missiles, and anti-satellite weapons. Senior Colonel Zhang rebuffed the United States as having defined space as “combat territory” and developing and deploying offensive space weapons, organizing military offensive and defensive exercises and technological experiments, and maliciously tracking and dangerously approaching other countries’ spacecraft which creates risk of collision. He states that the United States is the biggest promoter of the militarization of space and the biggest threat to space security. Furthermore, he claims that China always insisted on the peaceful use of space, opposes a space arms race, and is actively promoting the building of community for mankind. He urges the United States to stop spreading false statements, stop expanding its arms and war preparation in space, and prevent damaging global strategic security and stability.

Notes:

[i] In his testimony, General Whiting identified both China and Russia as significant space competitors. He urgently raises the need for the U.S. to expand its military power, as well as to sustain and improve its capabilities and strength in the space field to maintain its competitive advantage. Wu Zhichao, “国防部：美国是太空军事化战场化的最大推手 (Ministry of Defense: America is Space Militarization’s Biggest Driver),” The Paper, 29 February 2024. https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_26506145

[ii] Feng Hu, “2024年预计实施100次发射！中国航天科技活动蓝皮书发布 (An Estimated 100 Launches Will Be Carried Out in 2024! China’s Aerospace Science and Technology Activities Released Blue Book),” China Economic Daily, 26 February 2024. http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/202402/26/t20240226_38912226.shtml

[iii] Ryan Woo, “China Launches Classified Communication Satellite with Powerful Rocket,” Reuters, 23 February 2024. https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-classified-communication-satellite-with-powerful-rocket-2024-02-23/

[iv] To obtain a list of Chinese satellites and their purpose description, see NASA Space Science Data Coordinated Archive, NASA, 28 March 2024. https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/query

[v] Clayton Swope, “No Place to Hide: A Look into China’s Geosynchronous Surveillance Capabilities,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 19 January 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/no-place-hide-look-chinas-geosynchronous-surveillance-capabilities

Image Information:

Image: Long March 5 Y7 Carrier Rocket Launch Preparation on 23 February 2024.
Source:  
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

New Details Emerge About China’s H-20 Stealth Bomber

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The cover of the June 2021 issue of the Chinese military magazine “Modern Weaponry” features an artist’s rendition of a next-generation bomber.

“Since 2016, details regarding the H-20 have been largely withheld from the public. However, a few small details have gradually emerged.”

Although China announced the development of its first dedicated strategic stealth bomber, the H-20, in 2016, many details surrounding the aircraft remain a mystery. However, according to the first excerpted article posted on the publicly owned Chinese Internet Platform Tencent, Deputy Commander of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, Lieutenant General Wang Wei, stated that the H-20 is “almost here.” This statement was provided at the conclusion of the second session of the 14th National People’s Congress in Beijing. Despite external skepticism of the H-20’s development and progress, Wei stated that the H-20 currently has not encountered any technological bottlenecks.[i] Wei also noted that after test flights, the H-20 can very quickly enter mass production. When asked how the new H-20 would compare to the United States capabilities (presumably, the B-21 bomber), Wei replied that it is not a matter of comparison between China and the United States. Rather it is a matter to “protect our own security.” [ii] The second excerpt published by the majority Chinese state-owned television network, Ifeng, suggests that the unveiling of the new H-20 will send two significant messages to the outside world. First, the H-20 will elevate China into the top ranks of the world’s air powers. Second, the H-20 will serve as an effective deterrent against external forces infringing upon China’s national sovereignty and airspace. The source also suggests that the H-20 will enable China to break through the first, and potentially the second, island chain that surrounds the country, thus expanding its strategic space.[iii] Furthermore, the source suggests that the H-20 will “shock” the forces of Taiwan and constrain their strategic intentions, with the author referring to Taiwan simply as ‘the island.’[iv]

Sources:

Yanbingchang, “时隔8年再获官方确认，空军副司令员“剧透”轰-20：快了，你们等着吧 (After an Official Confirmation Following an Eight Year Hiatus, the Air Force Deputy Commander ‘Spoiled’ the H-20: It’s Almost Here, Just Wait for It),” Tencent (a major Chinese platform company that connects users, businesses, and industries with technology and innovation), 11 March 2024. https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240311A04C1F00

After the conclusion of the second session of the 14th National People’s Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, a reporter from the Hong Kong Commercial Daily asked Lieutenant General Wang Wei, Deputy Commander of the Chinese Air Force, a series of questions regarding China’s new and upcoming strategic stealth bomber, the H-20. Lieutenant General Wang Wei stated that the H-20 will soon be announced to the public and emphasized that production of the plane would proceed ‘very fast’ following test flights.

The development of the H-20 was publicly revealed in 2016, and details of the aircraft have not been made public since then. There were suspicions that China may have encountered technical bottlenecks during its development. However, Lieutenant General Wang Wei categorically denied this in the interview, stating that there were no such bottlenecks.

Military experts estimate that the H-20 boasts a range of approximately 13,000 kilometers, a combat radius of around 5,000 kilometers, and a bomb load ranging from 30 to 40 tons. Such capabilities would render the H-20 five times more effective than China’s current most advanced bomber, the H-6K, and enable it to fly directly to the United States.

Since 2016, details regarding the H-20 have been largely withheld from the public. However, a few small details have gradually emerged. In a 2018 episode by the CCTV Documentary Channel, it was stated that significant progress had been made in the development of the H-20. Additionally, in 2021, a promotional video commemorating the tenth anniversary of the J-20 [R1] ‘s maiden flight, released by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, showcased an aircraft featuring a flying wing design. Similarly, an Air Force recruitment video from the same year revealed a winged aircraft being unveiled, as seen through the reflection of a pilot’s visor. Lastly, at the conclusion of a CCTV program on military technology, viewers were shown an image of an object draped with a curtain, its outline strongly resembling a flying wing layout without vertical tail fins, reminiscent of the design of the B-2 [R2] or B-21 bomber.

Nanyouhui, “轰20将亮相，向外传递两大信号 (The Unveiling of the H-20 will Send Two Messages to the Outside World),” ifeng.com (a majority state-owned television network), 12 March 2024. https://news.ifeng.com/c/8XtHAuKtOs5

The statements from Deputy Commander Wang Wei regarding the H-20 development send two signals to the outside world. Firstly, they suggest that China is on track to possess a stealth strategic bomber comparable to those of the US Air Force. American experts speculate that the H-20 developed by China may be akin to the B-2 stealth bomber, boasting a range of more than 8,500 kilometers and capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons. The emergence of the H-20 is poised to rival the American B-2 and position China among the world’s leading air force powers.

Secondly, the H-20 is expected to significantly enhance the deterrence capability of the Chinese Air Force. In light of efforts by the United States to contain China’s rise, including the construction of first and second island chains aimed at restricting China’s access to the Pacific, the H-20 represents a strategic asset. With its potential capability to penetrate these containment barriers, the H-20 will serve as a potent deterrent against foreign forces.The development of the H-20 is not intended to compete against the United States or pursue world hegemony. Rather, it represents a strategic breakthrough for China, expanding its strategic capabilities. Importantly, once the H-20 is operational, it will significantly impact forces positioned on ‘the island’—a reference to territories dependent on American military presence for defense against mainland China. China has consistently demonstrated restraint and tolerance, and the deployment of the H-20 will serve as a deterrent, influencing the intentions of these forces.

Notes:

[i] Daqiqi, “台媒, 轰-20迟迟没有露面, 是因为研发出了问题, 要走的路还很长! (According to Taiwan Media, H-20 Bomber Has Not Appeared for a Long Time Because It Encountered Development Problems, There Still is a Long Way To Go!),” NetEase (a leading Chinese internet and gaming provider centered around premium content), 08 December 2023.  https://www.163.com/dy/article/ILEICUTM05534DZW.html

[ii] To watch the full interview with Lieutenant General Wang Wei, see Hong Kong Commercial Daily’s Weibo video post on 11 March 2024, Weibo (biggest social media platform in China), 11 March 2023. https://weibo.com/hkcdCN?layerid=5010657889487439

[iii] Mark Carlin, “China’s New H-20 Stealth Bomber Is a Giant Question Mark”, National Interest, 15 November 2023.https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-new-h-20-stealth-bomber-giant-question-mark-207290

[iv]Peter Suciu, “China’s B-21 Raider: The Xi’an H-20 Stealth Bomber is Coming Soon”, National Interest, 12 March 2024. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-b-21-raider-xian-h-20-stealth-bomber-coming-soon-209973

Image Information:

Image: The cover of the June 2021 issue of the Chinese military magazine “Modern Weaponry” features an artist’s rendition of a next-generation bomber.
Source: https://www.zazhipu.com/magnews228725.html
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

China’s Strategic Bomber Puts United States and Allies Within Range

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Artist’s rendering of what China’s H-20 strategic bomber could look like.

“When commissioned, the H-20 will become a new quality combat force, serve as a powerful strategic deterrent and contribute to the safeguard of [Chinese] national sovereignty, security, and development interests, as well as peace and stability in the region and around the world.”

Eight years after its initial announcement, China’s new long-range bomber, the H-20, is about to be realized.[i] The H-20 is planned to replace China’s most advanced current bomber, the H-6K. According to the first excerpted article from the Chinese Communist Party affiliated Global Times, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) commander Wang Wei announced that the project was moving forward with no “bottlenecks” and all issues resolved. The H-20 will be a significant step up from the H-6K [R1] in both range and payload. When commissioned, the H-20 will use stealth technologies to avoid detection and will be able to launch a variety of weapons with both conventional and nuclear payloads. The second excerpted article from a Chinese news source. NetEase, describes the H-20’s utility and assesses the need for a stealth bomber. Notably, the article suggests that the H-20 will have a range up to 10,000 kilometers, giving it the ability to strike intercontinental military targets. An additional, though contradictory, statement from the PLAAF notes that the H-20 boasts a range of 8,500 kilometers with a payload of at least 10 metric tons.[ii] Should the H-20 live up to expectations, the H-20 will give China the ability to strike the United States, Australia, and other Pacific allies while remaining entirely undetected.

Sources:

Liu Xuanzun, “China’s in-development H-20 bomber worth the excitement: PLA Air Force deputy commander,” Global Times (English language newspaper affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party), 11 March 2024. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202403/1308604.shtml

China’s long awaited first strategic stealth bomber, the H-20, is worth the excitement, as it faces no technical difficulties in development and will be unveiled to the public soon, said the deputy commander of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force at the two sessions in Beijing.

The H-6 series, which is China’s current main combat bomber that has served for decades, is a medium-range subsonic platform without stealth capability, so despite many upgrades and modernization, the aircraft itself cannot penetrate modern air defense, and relies on launching standoff munitions to attack targets, said experts reached by the Global Times.

A next generation stealth bomber, capable of avoiding hostile detection, will enable the launch of more powerful or more cost-efficient munitions at closer range in larger numbers, experts said.

When commissioned, the H-20 will become a new quality combat force, serve as a powerful strategic deterrent and contribute to the safeguard of national sovereignty, security and development interests, as well as peace and stability in the region and around the world

Yangmen Bojin, “轰20航程或超预期！中国用一流反隐身能力铸剑，美应抓紧撤往东太 (The range of the H-20 may exceed expectations! China uses first-class anti-stealth capabilities to forge swords, the United States should hurry up and withdraw to the East Pacific),” NetEase (Chinese news site), 15 March 2024. https://m.163.com/dy/article_cambrian/ITAHENIN0553AA62.html

“The H-6 series bombers have serious shortcomings in terms of stealth, speed, and bomb load. In this context, it is very necessary to develop a new strategic bomber. H-20’ bomber’s range is expected to be at least 8,000 kilometers, with a maximum range of more than 10,000 kilometers.”

“The distance from our country to San Francisco is about 9,600 kilometers. If the ‘H-20’ bomber has a range of more than 10,000 kilometers, it can only reach Alaska and some islands in the Pacific, as well as the U.S. deployment bases in Australia.”“It should be pointed out that the reason why my country’s H-20 bomber has not reviled is likely due to it being continuously upgraded. For stealth bombers, the most fatal problem is that the stealth capabilities is seen by the other party. Once the stealth advantage is lost, the stealth bomber is not even comparable to a conventional bomber.

Notes:

[i]Zhao Lei, “PLA Air Force commander confirms new strategic bomber,” China Daily, 2 September 2016. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2016-09/02/content_26683883.htm

[ii]Liam Gibson, “US Air Force secretary says new planes must intimidate China,” Taiwan News, 5 December 2021. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4365995

Image Information:

Image: Artist’s rendering of what China’s H-20 strategic bomber could look like.
Source: https://desarrollodefensaytecnologiabelica.blogspot.com/2020/05/china-presentara-el-bombardero-sigiloso.html
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

 

China’s Utilization of Domestic Information Operations Tactics

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Models of rockets of JAXA, are shown at the Mitsubishi Minatomirai Industrial Museum. Following the launch of one such rocket, CHN has undertaken information operations to achieve its own goals.

“The development of rocket-themed merchandise and culinary offerings has not only diversified Tanegashima’s economy but has also enriched its cultural landscape… “Specialty foods, rocket-themed rice wine, and more have gained popularity among tourists.”

In an effort to advance its goals, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) uses comprehensive information operations (IO) to influence and shape the global information landscape. The first excerpted article from the official CCP news outlet Xinhua demonstrates a nuanced tactic of CCP’s domestic IO—”喧宾夺主” (“the tail is wagging the dog”). On 17 February 2024, Japan’s flagship H3 space rocket, jointly developed by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, successfully deployed two small observation satellites into orbit from the Tanegashima Space Center. While the global media predominantly highlighted JAXA’s breakthrough and Japan’s manufacturing competitiveness, Xinhua’s coverage of the event focused on local Japanese infrastructure and tourism, with the economic revitalization of the Japanese Tanegashima Island taking the center stage. By doing so, the CCP not only obscured the intensified competition in the space race, but also promoted a narrative of fostering a global community united by a shared pursuit of economic growth. The CCP consistently develops nuanced IO tactics targeting the Chinese people during domestic peacetime, distinct from tactics used to aggressively handle domestic upheavals such as the Hong Kong protests and the COVID-19 pandemic. Central to these efforts is portraying China positively as a peaceful and prosperous nation.[i] Overall, the CCP’s approach to global influence carries significant implications for U.S. strategies aimed at countering China’s full-spectrum IO campaign.

Sources:

Guang Yang and Anzheng Li, “在日本种子岛感受火箭经济 (Experience the “Rocket Economy” in Tanegashima, Japan),” Xinhua (official Chinese Communist Party news outlet), 19 February 2024. http://www.news.cn/world/20240219/79f2ea64434e49b6bc512c4f7f80298a/c.html

Japan’s recent launch of the H3 rocket from the Tanegashima Space Center in Kagoshima Prefecture, has not only marked a significant milestone in space exploration but has also underscored the burgeoning “rocket economy” transforming the socioeconomic landscape of Tanegashima Island. This report delves into the multifaceted impacts of the rocket industry on Tanegashima, examining its influence on local infrastructure, tourism, economic diversification, and cultural identity…

Situated in the southern part of Kagoshima Prefecture, Tanegashima has experienced a gradual decline in population over recent decades. The emerging of the “rocket economy” has catalyzed economic and social benefits. Economically, investments in infrastructure, satellite research, manufacturing, and space education have bolstered local revenues and generated employment opportunities. For instance, data from the Japan Economic Research Institute reveals a significant increase in revenue and job creation attributed to direct orders from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and the influx of tourists and business visitors during rocket launch events. Moreover, the social benefits extend beyond economic gains, encompassing talent development, academic research, and regional image enhancement. Tanegashima’s identity as a “rocket launch island” has garnered widespread recognition, with space-themed attractions, such as the Emi Noe Observation Park, contributing to the island’s allure among tourists and enthusiasts. The influx of visitors from across Japan underscores the island’s newfound prominence as a premier destination for space enthusiasts. Furthermore, the development of rocket-themed merchandise and culinary offerings has not only diversified Tanegashima’s economy but has also enriched its cultural landscape. Souvenirs like rocket-shaped keychains and space-themed delicacies reflect the fusion of space exploration with local traditions, captivating visitors and fostering a sense of pride among residents.Japan’s H3 rocket launch not only symbolizes advancements in space technology but also serves as a catalyst for socioeconomic development on Tanegashima Island. The convergence of economic opportunities, cultural enrichment, and community engagement underscores the transformative impact of the “rocket economy” on the local landscape. By embracing its newfound identity as a nexus of space exploration, Tanegashima stands poised to chart a course toward a prosperous and vibrant future.

Notes:

[i] According to a Freedom House report, the CCP is likely to intensify censorship efforts and fortify against the infiltration of Western ideals while launching cognitive warfare to spread authoritarianism in developing countries. See: Sarah Cook, Angeli Datt, Ellie Young, and BC Han, “Beijing’s Global Media Influence: Authoritarian Expansion and the Power of Democratic Resilience,” Freedom House, September 2022. https://freedomhouse.org/report/beijing-global-media-influence/2022/authoritarian-expansion-power-democratic-resilience

Image: Models of rockets of JAXA, are shown at the Mitsubishi Minatomirai Industrial Museum. Following the launch of one such rocket, CHN has undertaken information operations to achieve its own goals.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Models_of_rockets_of_JAXA,_at_the_Mitsubishi_Minatomirai_Industrial_Museum.jpg
Attribution: Brakeet, CC0 1.0

The Philippines Plans Purchase of First Submarines To Counter China

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China’s maritime claim (red), compared to other countries. The Philippines has recently expressed interest in procuring submarines to protect itself against Chinese maritime aggression.

“China is willing to resolve differences with the Philippines through bilateral dialogue and consultation, but if the Philippines insists on going its own way, China will resolutely counterattack.”

The Philippines recently announced its plans to acquire submarines. According to Japan-based weekly news magazine, Nikkei Asia, the plan is the third part of a three-phase military modernization strategy and indicates the Philippines is “taking a more assertive approach to defending its interests beyond its borders.” The first and second phases were focused on bolstering the Philippines’ “land-centric” assets.[i] It is unknown where the Philippines will acquire its submarines but, according to the first article, “Spain, South Korea and Italy have shown an interest in supplying it with submarines.”

While the exact number of submarines the Philippines plans to purchase is unknown, the second excerpted article, published in the pro-independence, Taiwan newspaper, Liberty Times, suggests that one submarine is not enough. Ian Story, a senior researcher from ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore argues that the Philippines should purchase three so that one can be operational while another is in training and the last one undergoing maintenance. He also estimates that it could take more than 10 years to acquire and integrate submarines into Philippines’ military capabilities. While other experts agreed with three submarines being an ideal number to start, Joshua Bernard Espeña, vice president of the Philippine think tank International Development and Security Cooperation argued that two to three submarines would not be enough to deter China because China’s southern theater could deploy more than 30 diesel-electric submarines in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, in response to these plans, Chinese state-controlled Xinhuanet went on the offensive, saying that while buying a submarine was the Philippines’ own business, China will not tolerate anything that infringes on its sovereignty “and undermines regional peace and stability.” According to Chinese Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Colonel Wu Qian, the Philippines has already “betrayed its trust, colluded with major powers outside the region, and continued to engage in malicious activities in the South China Sea.” He went on to warn that China will counterattack if the Philippines “insists on going its own way.” However, he did not offer any specifics as to steps China might take.

Sources:

Ramon Royandoyan, “Philippines ‘Breaking From Its Shell’ With Submarine Purchase,” Nikkei Asia (major Japan-based English-language weekly news magazine), 2 February 2024. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/Philippines-breaking-from-its-shell-with-submarine-purchase

The Philippines’ plan to buy its first submarine marks a step toward the Southeast Asian nation taking a more assertive approach to defending its interests beyond its borders, analysts say.

On Thursday, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. approved the planned submarine purchase, which is included in the third phase of the military’s modernization strategy….The first and second phases of the military modernization plan focused on bolstering “land-centric” defense assets. Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr. said acquisitions under the third phase will focus on stepping up capabilities in domain awareness, intelligence and deterrence in maritime and aerial spaces.

The moves will prepare the Philippines “for future warfare of multi-domain attacks,” (Chester) Cabalza (founder of International Development and Security Cooperation, a think tank in Manila) added. In December, Manila installed Japan-made radar at an airbase some 300 kilometers from the Scarborough Shoal, the site of recent incidents involving China.

Friction between Beijing and Manila has escalated in recent months, as the Philippines Coast Guard accused a Chinese ship of using water cannons and deliberately ramming maritime vessels to disrupt the Philippines’ resupply missions to its outpost within the disputed waters.

The Philippine Navy on Thursday said France, Spain, South Korea and Italy have shown interest in supplying it with submarines.

Sun Yuqing, “菲律賓擬採購潛艦 專家：至少需要3艘才能嚇阻中國 (The Philippines Plans to Purchase Submarines. Experts: At Least Three Submarines Needed to Deter China,” Ziyou Shibao (also known as Liberty Times, a highly influential, pro-independence, Taiwan newspaper), 19 February 2024. https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/4583036

The report pointed out that in recent months, tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea have intensified, with military and police officers from both sides having numerous confrontations, and both sides later accusing the other of inciting conflicts. This prompted the Philippine government to decide to promote the modernization of the military. One of the measures is to purchase submarines.

Roy Trinidad, spokesman for the Philippine Navy’s West Philippine Sea Affairs, did not disclose how many submarines Manila plans to purchase, but he said “it will definitely be more than one.”

Ian Story, a senior researcher at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute) in Singapore Storey said that if one submarine is to be put into service at any time, Manila will need to purchase at least three. He explained that “3 is a magic number” that applies to all types of military equipment, one is operating, one is training, and one is being modified or maintained. For example, Vietnam has 6 submarines, which ensures that at least 2 are operational at any time.

However, since Manila has never operated a submarine, the process of acquiring and integrating the submarines will take at least 10 years, including the construction of infrastructure such as bases, docks, dry docks, and other support services. He added that if the Philippines orders two to three submarines, they will not be able to operate effectively until at least the mid-2030s.

However, Joshua Bernard Espeña, vice president of the Philippine think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, believes that 2 to 3 submarines are not enough to deter China, because China’s southern theater may deploy more than 30 diesel-electric submarines in the South China Sea. Power submarine.

“马科斯批准军队建设计划，包括购买菲律宾第一艘潜艇 (Marcos approves military construction plan, including purchase of Philippines’ first submarine),” Xinhuanet (Chinese state-controlled newspaper), 2 February 2024. http://www.news.cn/mil/2024-02/02/c_1212332825.htm

According to previous media reports, the Chief of Staff of the Philippine Armed Forces recently stated that the Philippines plans to develop islands and reefs in the South China Sea and purchase more ships and radars. Some analysts believe that the Philippines also intends to build outposts in the South China Sea.

In this regard, Colonel Wu Qian, spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, said on January 25 that whether or not to buy a ship is the Philippines’ own business, but China will never allow anything that infringes on China’s sovereignty and security and undermines regional peace and stability.Wu Qian said that China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands and their adjacent waters, which has sufficient historical and legal basis. China firmly opposes any form of construction activities carried out by the Philippines on the illegally occupied islands and reefs of China’s Nansha Islands. The current difficulties facing China-Philippines relations lie in the fact that the Philippines has betrayed its trust, colluded with major powers outside the region, and continued to engage in malicious activities in the South China Sea. Infringement and provocation harm China’s legitimate rights and interests. We ask the Philippines to respect history, recognize reality, and not go down the wrong path. Wu to resolve differences with the Philippines through bilateral dialogue and consultation, but if the Philippines insists on going its own way, China will resolutely counterattack.

Notes:

[i] The country’s plan to introduce submarines to its defense forces, comes in the wake of escalating tensions between Beijing and Manila with the Philippine Coast Guard accusing a Chinese ship of “using water cannons and deliberately ramming maritime vessels” on resupply missions to Philippine outposts within the disputed waters. Over the past months, China has been putting mounting pressure on the Philippines in the South China Sea. In one example of aggression in the South China Sea, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel used a water cannon to redirect an unarmed Philippines Navy supply ship near the Second Thomas Shoal. Despite an international court saying both the shoal and surrounding waters belong to the Philippines, China claims it all owns the area. For more information, see: Carla Freeman et al, “China, Philippines Tensions Risk Wider Conflict that Could Draw in the U.S., United States Institute of Peace, 10 August 2023. https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/08/china-philippines-tensions-risk-wider-conflict-could-draw-us. See also Dodge Billingsley, “China And Philippines Spar Over Grounded Ship In Spratly Islands,” OE Watch, 08-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/china-and-philippines-spar-over-grounded-ship-in-spratly-islands/

Image Information:

Image: China’s maritime claim (red), compared to other countries. The Philippines has recently expressed interest in procuring submarines to protect itself against Chinese maritime aggression.
Source: Goran Tek-en, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:South_China_Sea_vector.svg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0

Belarus Agrees To Host Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons

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Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko (Left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (Right) at a joint press conference.

“As a part of the response to possible threats to the military security of our country, we clearly defined and communicated the views of Belarus on the use of the tactical nuclear weapons deployed in our territory.”

Belarus has agreed to allow Russian tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) to be deployed in the country, a decision that has led it to revise its national military doctrine. According to the first excerpted article from Russian state-managed RIA News, presidents Lukashenko and Putin confirmed the successful deployment of Russian TNWs onto Belarusian soil in December 2023. Under the agreement, Russian TNWs in Belarus would remain under Russian control.[i] The placement of these weapons in Belarus would put them close enough to strike NATO members.

As a result of this move, in January 2024, Belarus revised its military doctrine, which is now known as the New Military Doctrine. Belarus’s newly revised military doctrine is unequivocal in declaring the West as an aggressor actively seeking to disrupt the integrity of Belarussian national security. Notably, the New Military Doctrine states that the Russian TNWs are an acceptable means of national defense, citing a willingness to work with Moscow to deploy these weapons against perceived threats from the West. Belarus’s New Military Doctrine underscores its willingness to use TNWs, citing reasons of national security and an explicit list of enemies, including the United States and NATO, with Poland and the Baltic states as its primary adversaries. The excerpted article from Belarus Today, a government publication closely linked to the Belarussian presidential administration, points out that the “Aggressive nature of the military policy of Western nations has ceased to be masked by formulations about the exclusively defensive orientation of their military doctrines. These national and coalition documents establish claims to global and regional dominance. They openly name states that are hostile to them, including Belarus.” For Russia, the move to station TNWs in Belarus has expanded its strategic footprint.[ii] Furthermore, as detailed in the third excerpted article, from the Belarusian state-run media organization BELTA –News of Belarus, Belarus has revised its doctrine to increase its defense by focusing on Belarussian military strategy in the likelihood of escalating conflicts with neighboring states such as Poland. Russia arming its ally with nuclear devices, Belarus revising its military doctrine to allow for deployment of Russian TNWs and explicitly naming enemies serves to further heighten regional tensions, especially between Poland and Belarus.[iii]

Sources:

RIA News, “Лукашенко назвал последствия появления ядерного оружия в Белоруссии (Lukashenko identifies the consequences of the appearance of nuclear weapons in Belarus),” RIA News (One of Russia’s largest state news agencies), 19 January 2024. https://ria.ru/20240119/belorussiya-1922400028.html

In March (of 2023) Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Moscow and Minsk had agreed to put tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. … In June the President of Russia communicated that in accordance with Belarussian-Russian plans the first nuclear charges had been delivered to Belarus. In December (of 2023), Lukashenko informed journalists that all Russian tactical nuclear weapons, agreed upon by the two countries, had been delivered to the (Belarussian) Republic, and were “in place, in good condition,” and that the military is training daily.

Nikolai Buzin, “На чем сделан акцент в проекте новой Военной доктрины Беларуси (What is the emphasis of the New Military Doctrine of Belarus),” Belarus Today (official government news channel), 24 January 2024. https://www.sb.by/articles/v-mire-uvazhayut-silnykh.html

“As a part of the assessment of trends in the development of the military-political situation (we have) clearly named the sources of military threat to Belarus. (These are) the United States, NATO, Poland and the Baltic nations. In particular, article 9 states that the “aggressive nature of the military policy of Western nations has ceased to be masked by formulations about the exclusively defensive orientation of their military doctrines. These national and coalition documents establish claims to global and regional dominance. They openly name states that are hostile to them…, which includes the Republic Belarus.”

“Какой будет новая Военная доктрина Беларуси. Хренин раскрыл подробности документа (What will be the new Military doctrine of Belarus. Khrenin revealed the details of the document),” BELTA – News of Belarus (official government news channel), 6 January 2024. https://www.belta.by/society/view/kakoj-budet-novaja-voennaja-doktrina-belarusi-hrenin-raskryl-podrobnosti-dokumenta-610049-2024/

Among important innovations, (Viktor Khrenin) describes, for instance, targeting, that is, a clear indication of the sources of military threats to Belarus. At the same time, unlike NATO countries, which in their war documents explicitly name (their) enemies, listing specific countries, Belarus states likely sources of threats. “We expressly name sources of threats and from the countries which they emanate.” – explained Viktor Khrenin. He also brought attention to the strengthened concepts of national security. “For existing challenges of military security there is a clearly formulated line of threats.” The head of the Ministry of Defense explained. “Based on this, we have formulated measures that the state will take in case of risks, challenges, and threats. We have clearly defined what government agencies should do and what functions they will perform. As a part of the response to possible threats to the military security of our country, we clearly defined and communicated the views of Belarus on the use of the tactical nuclear weapons deployed in our territory.”

Notes:

[i] TNWs are designed for the battlefield and can greatly range in impact. A tactical nuclear weapon is any nuclear weapon not classified as “strategic” by U.S.-Russian arms control agreements, such as SALT. For more information, see: “What are ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons?,” The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), https://www.icanw.org/what_are_tactical_nuclear_weapons; Most TNWs have a maximum range of 500km if land-based or 600km if airborne. For additional information, see: “Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNW),” Nuclear Threat Initiative, 30 April 2002. https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/tactical-nuclear-weapons/

[ii] Previous reporting notes that the withdrawal of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons would only be negotiable if the United States were to completely withdraw American nuclear arms from the European continent. See: RIA News (one of Russia’s largest state news agencies), 31 July 2023. https://ria.ru/20230731/tyao-1887278977.html

[iii] For the Polish perspective on Belarus’s tactical nuclear weapons, see: Andrezj Wilk and Piotr Zochowski, “Russian nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus: the consequences,” Center for Eastern Studies (Warsaw based think tank) 6 June 2023. https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2023-06-06/russian-nuclear-weapons-deployed-belarus-consequences

Image Information:

Image: Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko (Left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (Right) at a joint press conference.
Source: Kremlin.ru, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66648
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Russia Developing Sixth-Generation Combat Aircraft

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Rendition of BAE Systems Tempest 6th generation fighter.

“Currently, we are thinking about the concept of a sixth-generation aircraft, conducting search research, exchanging views with military specialists. Such an aircraft should appear sometime by 2050, but already now it is necessary to understand what the armed conflicts of the future will be like.” – Evgeny Fedosov, Scientific Director of the State Research Institute of Aviation Systems.”

Russia hopes to have a sixth-generation combat aircraft prototype by 2050, according to the excerpted analysis of a report written by Evgeny Fedosov of the Russian Academy of Sciences published by state news agency TASS.  Sixth-generation aircraft, still in their early phase of development, are expected to have advanced digital features like artificial intelligence (AI) integration and data fusion, as well as other enhanced command, control, and communication (C3) capabilities. The aircraft would be similar to fifth-generation combat aircraft—designed for greater air-to-air capability, battlefield survivability in anti-access/area denial environments, and ground support—but with greater focus on enhanced integration of AI systems and less focus on close-in dogfighting, which is a less common feature of current and future war scenarios.  This is not the first time that the Russians have announced plans to develop a sixth-generation combat aircraft. TASS first reported these developments in 2017[i] and the article touts Russia’s Su-57 [RG1] Felon as “almost” possessing capabilities or easy upgradable features to become a sixth-generation aircraft. These capabilities include supercruise (i.e. sustained supersonic flight without use of an afterburner) and advanced avionics (i.e. an aircraft’s communications, navigation, and flight control systems). 

The second excerpted article from the The EurAsian Times is a commentary on Fedosov’s report. It notes that AI technology will provide the aircraft with advanced digital and C3 capabilities, as well as data fusion and remote or autonomous piloting. Fedosov expects the pilot to be integrated into the airframe, with cockpits and helmet-mounted displays allowing for 360-degree vision similar to the F-35 [RG2] . Stealth, as before, will continue to play a huge role in sixth-generation aircraft capabilities. Several other nations have announced plans to develop sixth-generation combat aircraft to include Turkey[ii] as well as the UK, Italy, and Japan, which announced a joint plan to develop a similarly advanced fighter.[iii] The Russian military’s development of advanced combat aircraft has been notorious for delays, cost overruns, and faulty features evident in the deployment of its fifth-generation Su-57 aircraft. Discussing the aircraft, Fedosov acknowledged the complication of designing future combat aircraft as they become larger, heavier, and costlier to make. The TASS article suggests that the U.S. Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance plan to roll out a sixth-generation combat aircraft to replace its F-22 Raptor fighters by 2030 is unlikely to be eclipsed by the Russians anytime soon.[iv] The report further highlights divisions among the engineers, strategists, and aviators of Russia’s ministry of defense, over which capabilities to emphasize. The main divide is whether to focus on producing fighters designed for beyond visual range engagement or models (not unlike its previous Sukhoi or Mikoyan versions) capable of close-range dogfights, but there is also major disagreement over whether future models should be manned or unmanned.[v]

Sources:

“Боевой самолет шестого поколения может появиться в России к 2050 году (A Sixth-Generation Combat Aircraft may Appear in Russia by 2050),” TASS (Russian state news agency), 25 February 2024. https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/20081017

A sixth-generation combat aircraft may appear in Russia by 2050, now there is an exchange of views with the military regarding its concept. This is written in a column for TASS by the scientific director of the State Research Institute of Aviation Systems (GosNIIAS), Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Evgeny Fedosov.

“Currently, we are thinking about the concept of a sixth-generation aircraft, conducting search research, exchanging views with military specialists. Such an aircraft should appear sometime by 2050, but already now it is necessary to understand what the armed conflicts of the future will be like,” he writes.

Touching upon the design of future aircraft, Fedosov suggested that “to go further according to the logic of complication is a vicious practice.” He also pointed out that combat aircraft are becoming more complex from generation to generation and, as a result, becoming heavier. “And the larger and heavier the plane, the more expensive it is,” the academician concluded.

GosNIIAS is a leading center in the development of on-board aviation systems and equipment. The founder of modeling methods for designing automatic systems of any degree of complexity. The Institute participates in the creation of aircraft at all stages: from the development of the concept of aircraft creation to modernization during operation. 

Ashish Dangwal, “Russia’s 6th-Gen Fighter Jet to be Deployed by 2050; Will not Dump Pilots for Robots – GosNIIAS,” The EurAsian Times (a privately owned digital news site specializing in defense and global news) 26 February 2024. https://www.eurasiantimes.com/russias-6th-gen-fighter-jet-to-be-deployed-by-2050/

According to state media TASS, Russia is actively setting its sights on developing a sixth-generation fighter jet that could be deployed by 2050.

The development was disclosed by Evgeny Fedosov, Scientific Director of the State Research Institute of Aviation Systems (GosNIIAS) and a distinguished member of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Fedosov outlined the initiative in a column published by TASS, shedding light on the ongoing discussions and research surrounding the conceptualization of the sixth-generation aircraft.

According to Fedosov, the development process involves extensive consultation and collaboration with military specialists to anticipate the demands of future armed conflicts.

“Currently, we are thinking about the concept of a sixth-generation aircraft, conducting research and exchanging views with military specialists,” he said. Fedosov, however, highlighted a critical concern regarding the design complexity of next-generation combat aircraft, describing it as a potentially “vicious practice.”

He pointed out that with each successive iteration of military aviation, the size and weight tend to increase, inevitably impacting the cost of such equipment.

He also added that the sixth-generation combat aviation group will include both manned aircraft and unmanned vehicles.

“There is an opinion that the air group should be mixed and consist of drones and manned aircraft. Such a mixed park, in principle, can exist,” Fedosov remarked. He said that the size and speed of the drones would enable them to function as wingmen within a group.

Building upon the success of fifth-generation platforms, sixth-generation fighters would be designed to adapt to evolving trends in aerial warfare, where traditional dogfighting scenarios are giving way to long-range engagements utilizing beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile capabilities.

In recent years, numerous countries have declared their intention to embark on the development of indigenous sixth-generation aircraft programs, illustrating a global push toward advancing military aviation capabilities.

The United States Air Force is a key player in this arena, actively advancing its efforts to develop a next-generation fighter jet through the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) stealth fighter program.

Multinational initiatives have also emerged, reflecting a strategic approach to leveraging shared resources and expertise while mitigating development costs.

…

China is also believed to be in the process of developing its sixth-generation fighter jet, having previously demonstrated its capabilities with the construction of the fifth-generation J-20 fighter jet.On the other hand, Russia has encountered difficulties in deploying its stealth fighter jet, the Su-57, in large numbers. Moreover, discussions concerning the development of a sixth-generation fighter jet have previously faced obstacles.

Notes:

 [i] “Russia may upgrade advanced Su-57 aircraft to 6th-generation fighter jet,” TASS, 1 November 2017. https://tass.com/defense/973625

 [ii] Dilara Aslan Ozer, Türkiye starts works on AI-backed 6th-generation fighter jet,” Daily Sabah, 12 January 2024. https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/turkiye-starts-works-on-ai-backed-6th-generation-fighter-jet

[iii] Josh Luckenbaugh, “UK-Italy-Japan Cite Steady Progress Developing Next-Gen Jet Fighter,” National Defense, 30 October 2023. https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2023/10/30/uk-italy-japan-cite-steady-progress-developing-next-gen-jet-fighter

[iv] Ryan Finnerty, “US defense spending bill could expose new details of sixth generation fighter development,” FlightGlobal, 19 December 2023. https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing/us-defence-spending-bill-could-expose-new-details-of-sixth-generation-fighter-development/156256.article

[v] Boyko Nikolov, “Su-57 Felon is a step towards the 6th-gen, but Russians are at odds,” BulgarianMilitary.com, 24 November 2023. https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/11/24/su-57-felon-is-a-step-towards-the-6th-gen-but-russians-are-at-odds/

Image information:

Image: Rendition of BAE Systems Tempest 6th generation fighter
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BAE_Systems_Tempest#/media/File:Team_tempest.jpg
Attribution: Fair Use

Russian Engineer Troops Gain Assault Combat Mission

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Universal Armored Engineer Vehicle (UBIM)

“The engineer troops are being transformed from a support role into an independent strike force capable of participating in a modern war.”

In most militaries, engineer units are combat enablers (support units) for maneuver units (infantry, armor, etc). Due to Russia’s combat experience in Ukraine, this may be changing, as Russia is envisioning engineer units assuming a combat role, capable of accomplishing independent assault operations in addition to typical engineer missions. The accompanying excerpted article from the Russian newspaper Izvestia attributes this change to the fact that Russian troops have frequently had to assault heavily fortified areas.  The article also delves into how this reform will be implemented, to include organizational changes such as forming “assault detachments” in engineer units and engineer reconnaissance-assault brigades in combined arms armies, as well as the addition of new types of equipment such as the universal armored engineer vehicle. If this effort is perceived as a success, it is possible other militaries will consider emulating such reforms.

Source:

Alexey Mikhailov, Yulia Leonova, Andrey Fedorov, “В дело с техникой: инженерные войска переориентируют на штурмовые действия: Их оснащают боевыми машинами для разведки и разрушения долговременных укреплений (In business with technology: The engineer troops are reoriented to assault operations:), Izvestiya (major Russian daily newspaper), 23 January 2024. https://iz.ru/1638123/aleksei-mikhailov-iuliia-leonova-andrei-fedorov/v-delo-s-tekhnikoi-inzhenernye-voiska-pereorientiruiut-na-shturmovye-deistviia

The Russian Ministry of Defense has approved a program to increase the combat capabilities of engineer regiments and brigades – this year they will get new units equipped with specialized assault and reconnaissance equipment…We are talking about universal armored engineer vehicles (UBIM) [Универсальная бронированная инженерная машина (УБИМ)]

From the first months of the special military operation, Russian troops were faced with the need to regularly storm fortified areas of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.[i]  Particularly strong field fortifications were encountered in the Donbass that were erected over the course of eight years. This required Russian troops to adapt to new conditions and change tactics. Specialized assault detachments were formed with weapons and equipment to break through enemy defenses. Since last year, the military department decided to scale up this experience and create [engineer] reconnaissance-assault brigades in combined arms armies.In recent years, the Ministry of Defense has been carrying out a large-scale reform of the engineer troops. The engineer troops are being transformed from a support role into an independent strike force capable of participating in a modern war. The actions of the engineers are no longer limited to the construction of field fortifications, route clearance, and bridge building — now they also storm fortified areas, covertly place mines, and quickly conduct ​​explosive ordinance disposal.

Note:

[i] Moscow uses the term spetsial’naya voyennaya operatsiya (“special military operation”) or spetsoperatsiya (“special operation”) to describe its campaign in Ukraine.

Image Information:

Image: Universal Armored Engineer Vehicle (UBIM)
Source: https://www.vitalykuzmin.net/Military/ARMY-2021-Static-part-3/i-PfWbh5c/A 
Attribution: Vitaly Kuzmin, CC BY-SA 4.0