Tag Archives: Ukraine

Russian Orthodox Church Strengthening Support for Ukraine Invasion

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Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces.

Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces.

“…It is worth recalling that shortly before the start of the special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, Hilarion said: “I am personally afraid of war. And I think that we must do everything to ensure that there is no war, no big war, no small war, no world war, no local war.”

Given its close alignment with the Kremlin, it is not surprising that the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) has adopted a “you are either with us or against us” philosophy and has openly endorsed the so-called “special military operation” (SMO) in Ukraine.  (For additional background, see “Religious Blessing for the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine,” OE Watch, May 2022). The accompanying excerpt from the semi-independent Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta describes some recent changes in the ROC’s hierarchy and organization, which reflects its growing militancy.  The article begins by recounting the recent transfer of high-level ROC cleric Metropolitan Hilarion, who had spoken out against the conflict in Ukraine.  Drawing an analogy to the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917, Hilarion reminded his flock about “Rasputin [who] was an ardent opponent of Russia’s entry into the war.  He warned the tsar that if Russia entered the war, it would threaten the whole country with catastrophic consequences.” 

The article also provides an update regarding Orthodox believers in Ukraine who, up until last month, pledged allegiance to the Russian patriarch.  They now have announced their intention to split from the ROC, which has caused consternation in Moscow.  In the past, the clerics of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchy (UOC-MP) enjoyed some level of independence from the church leadership in Moscow, but they will now fall under the “direct canonical and administrative subordination to the Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia and the Holy Synod of the Russian Orthodox Church.”  The article also discusses the restoration “of protopresbyter of the military and naval clergy,” who will serve as the chief liaison between the ROC and the military.  In the past, “this chief military priest was equated with a general.” 

The growing proximity of the ROC and the military, according to the excerpt, “is not surprising.  After the start of the invasion of Ukraine, the patriarch visited the main military church in Kubinka several times and delivered sermons there on the importance of military service.”  These religious developments, whereby the ROC is losing influence in Ukraine, may provide additional incentives for the Kremlin to gain control over the entire country. 

Source:

Andrei Melnikov, “РПЦ переходит на военное положение (The Russian Orthodox Church moves into martial law),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (semi-independent Russian media outlet), 7 June 2022.  https://www.ng.ru/faith/2022-06-07/1_8455_general.html

…The synod of the Russian Orthodox Church at a meeting on Tuesday put an end to the ambiguous position of the church against the backdrop of a military special operation in Ukraine. No longer bound by obligations to its Ukrainian believers, the Moscow Patriarchate is bringing its own configuration into line with the limits of influence of the Russian state. The synodals made revolutionary decisions: they removed Metropolitan Hilarion (Alfeev), who was responsible for “pacifism” in the Russian Orthodox Church, from the post of chairman of the Department for External Church Relations (DECR), and at the same time strengthened the spiritual and patriotic component of church policy….

…It is worth recalling that shortly before the start of the special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, Hilarion said: “I am personally afraid of war. And I think that we must do everything to ensure that there is no war, no big war, no small war, no world war, no local war. There are a lot of forces that want to drag us into some kind of war, and they are not only outside our country, but also inside it. There are those who want to rattle weapons, who say: they say, we are invincible, invincible, we will repulse any enemy. In March, he suddenly began to justify Grigory Rasputin. “Rasputin was an ardent opponent of Russia’s entry into the war. And he warned the tsar that if Russia entered the war, it would threaten the whole country with catastrophic consequences….”

The rejection of soft church power was also reflected in other decisions of the Synod of June 7. The ROC responded in a peculiar way to the recent declaration of independence by the Ukrainian Orthodox Church – mainly with the votes of those participants in the Council of the UOC on May 27, who are located on the territory of the country controlled by the Kyiv authorities. For a long time, starting from the Russian spring of 2014, the Moscow Patriarchate maintained demonstrative independence from the political situation and left the three eparchies of Crimea under the jurisdiction of the UOC.

In response to the appeals of His Grace Metropolitan Platon of Theodosius and Kerch, Metropolitan Lazar of Simferopol and Crimea, Bishop Alexy of Dzhankoy and Razdolnensky, proceeding from the need to maintain an effective canonical and administrative connection with the central church authorities for the successful flow of church life in the dioceses served by the aforementioned bishops, taking into account the practical the impossibility of regular communication of these dioceses with the Kievan Metropolia, to accept the Dzhankoy, Simferopol and Feodosiya eparchies into direct canonical and administrative subordination to the Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia and the Holy Synod of the Russian Orthodox Church, – says in synodal journals…. 

…Finally, the Synod, in a sense, turned history back: it restored the position of protopresbyter of the military and naval clergy, which had been abolished in 1918….  The chief military priest was equated with a general. ….

The attention of the Synod to the military theme is not surprising. After the start of the special operation in Ukraine, the patriarch visited the main military church in Kubinka several times and delivered sermons there on the importance of military service. It was these sermons that became the basis for calls for sanctions against the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, because he allegedly “blessed” the special operation in Ukraine. 

Image Information:

Image: Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Cathedral_of_the_Russian_Armed_Forces
Attribution: CCA 4.0 Intl

Russia’s “Terminator” System in Ukraine To Inform Tactics

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Tank Support Combat Vehicle (BMPT).

Tank Support Combat Vehicle (BMPT).

Tank Support Combat Vehicle (BMPT).

Tank Support Combat Vehicle (BMPT).

“In terms of firepower, according to experts, one “Terminator”, armed with cannons, rockets and machine guns, surpasses two motorized rifle platoons.”

The accompanying excerpted article from Russian government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta  describes the capabilities of Russia’s Tank Support Combat Vehicle (BMPT[RG1] ) and how it has been employed during Russia’s 2022 invasion of the Ukraine.  Also known as the ‘Terminator’ for its intent to destroy infantryman wielding antitank weapons, the BMPT concept has been in development since Soviet times.  Despite Russia’s reportedly successful use of the system during the Syrian campaign and the fact that a few foreign militaries (Kazakhstan and Algeria) have adopted it, there is currently only one BMPT company in the Russian Ground Forces.  According to the article, there is a debate about possibly rebranding the system by changing the name from ‘Tank Support Combat Vehicle’ to ‘Fire Support Combat Vehicle’ because the system can also support mounted and dismounted infantry formations.  The perceived success or failure of the BMPT in the Donbas will likely cause Russia to more widely field the BMPT, or abandon the program entirely.  If successful, the heavy combat conditions that BMPT is encountering will allow Russian tacticians and planners to determine the best tactics and force structure for the BMPTs integration with the Russian Ground Forces.

Source:

Sergey Ptichkin, “ВС РФ впервые применили в ходе спецоперации БМПТ ‘Терминатор’ (The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation used the BMPT ‘Terminator’ for the first time during the special operation),” Rossiyskaya Gazeta (official Russian government newspaper), 18 May 2022. https://rg.ru/2022/05/18/vs-rf-vpervye-primenili-v-hode-specoperacii-bmpt-terminator.html

…BMPTs, together with tank platoons, are involved in the destruction of Ukrainian positions, armored vehicles, and crews of anti-tank missile systems. It is also said that the participation of the BMPT in the course of the special operation will make it possible to finally form the tactics for the use of these vehicles and determine their place in the armored groups…

In terms of firepower, according to experts, one “Terminator”, armed with cannons, rockets and machine guns, surpasses two motorized rifle platoons.  Based on the Afghan experience, the first BMPT was developed, which received the name “Terminator” at the beginning of the 21st century. It was actively promoted by the head of the Main Armored Directorate, Colonel General Sergei Maev. But even his authority was not enough for the accelerated delivery of a machine to the troops, which really has no analogues in the world.

Perhaps the situation will now change, and the BMPT will go into mass production. By the way, an idea to slightly change the name of the system was put forward, to designate the “Terminators” as fire support combat vehicles.  Because the “Terminator” is capable of supporting not only tanks, but also infantry, especially those fighting in cities.

Here are just the main features and benefits of this machine. Since the BMPT was created on the basis of the T-72[RG1] , it has a tank’s armored protection — it is difficult to knock it out. It has optical, television and thermal imaging sites for observation and aiming. It sees at night as well as during the day…The BMPT is armed with two quick-firing 30 mm 2A42 cannons and four Ataka missiles. The 45-degree elevation angle of the missile armament and cannons makes it possible to conduct effective combat operations in mountainous terrain and in urban areas…

Image Information:

Image: Tank Support Combat Vehicle (BMPT)
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/Military/Rehearsal-in-Alabino-17-April-2019/i-chgNPrQ/0/5070c462/X2/Rehearsal17April2019-0071-X2.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Image: Tank Support Combat Vehicle (BMPT)
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/Military/Rehearsal-in-Alabino-17-April-2019/i-MHbnq66/0/ce5af375/X2/Rehearsal17April2019-0072-X2.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Russia Tests Palantin Electronic Warfare System in Ukraine

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Palantin Electronic Warfare System.

Palantin Electronic Warfare System.

The accompanying excerpted article from Russia’s official government newspaper, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, describes some of the capabilities of the Palantin electronic warfare (EW) system and how it has been employed during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—the first reported use of the system in combat.  According to the article, its most important advantage “lies in the ability to combine the electronic warfare systems such as [of] the “Moskva”, “Zhitel,” and “Judoist” into a “single working network.”  The Russian military personnel featured in the article claim that the Palantin EW system “disables reconnaissance drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” and “jams cellular communication and Internet sources at Ukrainian command posts,” but other, more objective open sources have not confirmed how effective the system has proven on the Ukrainian battlefield.

The Russian Ground Forces have a three-tiered system for EW.  At the maneuver brigade and division level, each has an EW company that focuses on tactical tasks.  At the combined arms Army level, each has an EW battalion that focuses on operational-tactical tasks.  At the Military District level, each has an EW brigade that focuses on strategic-level tasks.  At the tactical level, the Borisoglebsk-2. EW system is the primary and latest EW system for maneuver brigade/division level EW companies, while the Palantin EW system is the primary and latest system for combined arms Army level EW battalions.

Source:

Yuri Gavrilov, “Видео: Как работает в боевой обстановке комплекс РЭБ “Палантин” (Video: How the Palantin electronic warfare system works in a combat situation),” Rossiyskaya Gazeta (official Russian government newspaper), 4 June 2022.  https://rb.gy/4fjl6

The Palantin electronic warfare system disables reconnaissance drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, jams cellular communication and Internet sources at Ukrainian command posts, without disturbing the civilian communications infrastructure…The electronic warfare system independently detects enemy drones, intercepts their control signal, and interferes with them. As a result, the UAV loses contact with the operator on the ground.

The commander of the jamming company, Sergei, says that the specialists of his unit have mastered modern radio-electronic equipment without any problems. “Palantin” is the newest system, it is extremely easy to operate and maintain. The electronic warfare system provides automatic detection and suppression of radio communication lines…

A few words about what the Palantin-K electronic warfare system consists of.  It is mounted on four-axle KamAZ vehicles, and is designed to suppress existing and future radio communication systems, as well as to conduct signals intelligence. The capabilities of the system make it possible to “dazzle” enemy electronic systems in the ultrashort-wave [very high frequency (VHF)] and short-wave [high frequency (HF)] bands.

In addition, the “Palantin” can interfere with navigation systems and disable an air defense radars or a command and control systems…this system can deprive the enemy of cellular and trunking communications. Its most important advantage lies in the ability to combine the electronic warfare systems such as the “Moskva”, “Zhitel” and “Judoist” into a single working network… Experts say that “Palantin” is 2-3 times superior to Russian EW systems of the previous generation and currently has no analogues in combat capabilities in any army of leading foreign states.

Image Information:

Image: Palantin Electronic Warfare System
Source: Russian Ministry of Defense, https://rb.gy/4fjl6
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Russia Tests R-441 Liven Satellite Communication in Ukraine

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R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle.

R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle.

R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle.

R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle.

“An analysis of the various nuances of the special military operation are yet to come, but experts are already noting that, along with other means, the Liven system has confirmed its relevance and effectiveness.”

“For the first time, the Russian military used the R-441 Liven satellite communication station in a combat situation. Its effectiveness was confirmed in the organization of communications among headquarters of the Russian military in Ukraine…“

The accompanying excerpted articles from Russian military-themed website Armeyskiy Standart  and weekly Russian newspaperwebsite Argumenty i Fakty describe the capabilities of the R-441 Liven satellite communication system.  Both articles clarify that the R-441 had its first use in combat conditions during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or as they call it the “special military operation.”  The R-441 is designed to provide SHF (S/C-band) satellite communications capabilities for the strategic- and operational-level headquarters of the Ground Forces and Aerospace Forces.  The first version of the R-441 was fielded in 1997 to replace the R-440 Kristall satellite communication system, which provided a similar capability.  Variants of the R-441 are located in the headquarters of Air and Air Defense Armies, Combined Arms Armies, and Military Districts.  The articles purport that the system has performed well, although they provide few details.

Sources:

Petr Nikolaev “Связующие нити «Ливня»: Система связи окружного и армейского звена управления получила станцию нового технического уровня (The Binding Threads of “Liven”: Military district and combined arms army command-level receive a communications system of a new technical level),” Armeyskiy Standart (Russian military themed website), 4 May 2022. https://armystandard.ru/news/20224271046-kIXen.html

…What are the main advantages of this station [Liven]? Firstly, versatility, it provides stable communications with any digital or analog radio relay stations and unified command and control vehicles. Liven’s navigation system automatically aims the satellite dish (diameter 1.8 meters)…

Secondly, it is more secure, and can operate in environments with electromagnetic interference…

…The R-441 crew (full manned-16 personnel, partially manned – 11 personnel) is able to deploy in 20-30 minutes in any climatic conditions. In addition, difficult terrain is not an obstacle for the system, which is especially important in the mountains…

A number of modifications of the R-441 “Liven-VM” complex have been created. Among them are R-441-LM (linear automobile station “Liven-LM”); R-441-OV (terminal automobile station “Liven-OV”); R-441-OZh (terminal railway station “Liven-OZh”); R-441-OK (terminal container station “Liven-OK”); and R-441-U (nodal automobile station “Liven -U”).

…It is powerful communication center that works autonomously in the field. Just like the stationary communication nodes at the strategic and operational levels, “Liven” provides mobile long-range multi-channel radio communications. The use of repeaters on artificial satellites makes it possible to cover vast distances without problems. For example, at a recent training session in the Amur Region, R-441 crews created a high-quality digital communication network spanning more than 400 kilometers.…An analysis of the various nuances of the special military operation are yet to come, but experts are already noting that, along with other means, the Liven system has confirmed its relevance and effectiveness. In general, the modern communications systems that have recently entered service significantly increase the throughput [bandwidth] and quality of communication channels, allowing commanders of various levels to successfully solve command and control tasks.

Source: Alexey Kozachenko, “Что за «военный роутер»: «Ливень» получил боевое применение на Украине? [What is a “military router”: Was “Liven” received for combat use in UkLivene?],” Argumenty i Fakty (Website of weekly Russian newspaper), 6 May 2022.

https://aif.ru/society/army/chto_za_voennyy_router_liven_poluchil_boevoe_primenenie_na_ukLivene

For the first time, the Russian military used the R-441 Liven satellite communication station in a combat situation. Its effectiveness was confirmed in the organization of communications among headquarters of the Russian military in Ukraine…

The main advantage of the R-441 is its versatility, it provides stable communications with any digital or analog radio relay stations and unified command and control vehicles. The system uses “Globus-1” and “Meridian” satellites, and is able to automatically direct the antenna to a specified satellite. The developers claim that Liven is ten times superior to similar radios in terms of closed signal security and the ability to work in contested electromagnetic interference environments.

In fact, these are powerful communication nodes, military routers of the strategic and operational level, which are capable of autonomous operation in any conditions, on any terrain and in any weather. The use of this system as repeaters of artificial satellites makes it possible to create communication links several hundred kilometers long.The primary mission of “Liven” is to provide the command of the military district with long-range multi-channel radio communications in the field, which allows commanders of various levels to successfully accomplish missions of command and control. The station allows you to maintain a stable telephone and telegraph communications with the ability to access civilian telephone numbers. The equipment of the complex creates protected secure signals, which no modern electronic warfare system is capable of silencing and jamming. One of the additional options of this machine is the ability to create a secure digital network of broadband wireless access.

Image Information:

Image: R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-8dhCKdD/0/X3/i-8dhCKdD-X3.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Image: R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-3zvPTCM/0/O/i-3zvPTCM.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Chinese Military Scholars Call out Russia for Invading Ukraine

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“In the age of liberalization of global trade, countries don’t have to gain power through… grabbing land.  This can be done through technology and capital… but Russia is still obsessed with owning land.”

The accompanying article in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), a Hong Kong-based, ostensibly-independent newspaper, notes a growing list of Chinese intellectuals who have publicly questioned Russia’s justification for invading Ukraine.  This suggests that Chinese thinkers do not widely approve of China’s support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine despite the “no limits” relationship between the two countries that Chinese authorities stated prior to the Winter Olympics.

The focus of the SCMP article is an article by a recently retired Chinese military scholar published on Chinese social media site WeChat.  That article disappeared shortly after it was posted but, according to the accompanying SCMP publication, the author of the article, Gong Fangbin questioned Moscow’s assertion that Ukraine was on the brink of invading Russia, instead suggesting that the real reason Russia invaded Ukraine was that “Russian leaders have taken the wrong path for rejuvenation.”  The author suggested that Russia’s obsession with land as an indicator of strength was misguided and obsolete in the 21st century.  According to the SCMP article, another Chinese intellectual, Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, recently said that Russia would pay “a huge price” for its invasion of Ukraine.  Finally, Hu Wei, a political scientist affiliated with China’s State Council called on Beijing “to distance itself from Russia as soon as possible over its war on Ukraine.”  Finally, the intellectuals suggest multiple negative repercussions for China. The SCMP article also notes that although China has said it supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and denied suggestions that it might offer military assistance to Russia, it has not outright condemned Russia’s invasion, has not conducted a head of state visit with Ukrainian President Zelensky, and has criticized U.S.-led sanctions imposed on Russia.

Source:

Jun Mai, “Russia’s war on Ukraine based on flawed logic, Chinese military scholar wrote in article scrubbed from the web,” South China Morning Post (a Hong Kong-based, ostensibly-independent newspaper), 21 May 2022. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3178631/russias-war-ukraine-based-flawed-logic-chinese-military?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage

Russia’s security rationale for attacking Ukraine was flawed and the aftermath underlines the importance of diplomatic flexibility, a Chinese scholar formerly with Beijing’s top military academy has said.

“I still don’t see how any country would have dared to invade the world’s No 2 military power,” Gong Fangbin, a retired professor of the People’s Liberation Army National Defence University, wrote in a recent online article.

“Russia has shown the world time and again that no one dares touch an inch of its land,” he said, countering Moscow’s argument that it was cornered by the West and NATO into invading Ukraine.

“What’s the real reason [for Moscow] to attack Ukraine? I think it’s because the Russian leaders have taken the wrong path for rejuvenation.”

Gong argued that the rationale to attack Ukraine over so-called security concerns was flawed. And the dilemma faced by Russia as it took heavy losses on the ground was the result of having chosen a path “long forsaken by human civilisation”, he wrote in his article posted on WeChat last Tuesday.

The article, however, has since disappeared from the social media platform.

Gong confirmed to the Post that he wrote the article but declined a request for an interview.

Gong, a military veteran who fought in the China-Vietnam war of 1979, is among a small but growing number of Chinese intellectuals voicing scepticism about Moscow’s rationale for its military aggression against Kyiv, despite heavy censorship of the sharing of such views.

“In the age of liberalisation of global trade, countries don’t have to gain power through … grabbing land. This can be done through technology and capital,” Gong wrote. “But Russia is still obsessed with owning land.”

At a Beijing seminar in April, China’s ambassador to Ukraine between 2005 and 2007, Gao Yusheng, argued that Russia had shown signs of having lost the war and its global status was set to decline. A summary of his remarks, first published by news outlet ifeng.com in mid-May, was quickly censored.

But there are others making their opinions known. Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, said earlier this month that China had not benefited from the war and Russia was set to pay “a huge price”.

And in March, Hu Wei, a political scientist affiliated with the State Council – China’s cabinet – called on Beijing to distance itself from Russia as soon as possible over its war on Ukraine.

As the war enters its third month, Beijing still refuses to condemn Russia’s act of aggression, despite mounting pressure from the US and its allies. It has also sought to rally international support to criticise the sweeping sanctions imposed on Russia, citing disruption to the global economy.

Since Russia launched its military assault on February 24, China has repeatedly said it respects Ukraine’s sovereignty. However President Xi Jinping is among the very few world leaders yet to hold direct talks with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky.

Meanwhile, Chinese diplomats have sought to contain damage from the country’s close, “no limits” relationship with Moscow, as declared in a joint statement issued after Russian President Vladimir Putin met Xi in Beijing ahead of the Winter Olympics.

The diplomatic damage control has involved firmly denying suggestions that China might offer military assistance to Russia, and trying to isolate the Ukraine issue from Beijing’s relations with Europe.

Military scholar Gong had argued in another article earlier this month that the Ukraine war underlined how foreign policy flexibility might suffer if it was too closely tied to domestic politics.

This came after he had referenced the situation in yet another article in March, where he argued that countries only made decisions based on their own interests, and hence it was wrong to consider any country as a “strategic buffer”, as Russia says it had hoped Ukraine would be.

Failure to understand this, Gong argued, would lead one to also believe in the narrative that China’s economic development in the last 50 years owed much to Russia’s confrontation with the United States.“If a country is full of convictions related to strategic barriers and buffer zones, it will tie itself to the vehicles of others and thus lose autonomy, consistency and necessary flexibility,” he warned.

Two Retired Chinese Officials Offer Conflicting Perspectives on Russia’s Prospects in Ukraine

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“The United States is the real planner, instigator, organizer, commander and financier of the war in Ukraine.”

Chinese experts have taken to a number of domestic platforms to offer a more nuanced view of Russia’s war in Ukraine.  While mainstream Chinese media has closely adhered to talking points established in the first weeks of the conflict, the accompanying excerpted articles by two retired Chinese officials suggest alternative narratives of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Retired officials often have the greatest capacity to speak truth to power in the Chinese system as they have no risk of damaging their careers or have sufficiently powerful friends to shield them from the worst consequences.  While some may hold with the standard party line, their perspectives may provide some insights into the real conversations happening behind closed doors and signal whether the Party is continuing a particular effort or open to change.  In this case, the authors, a career military officer and diplomat respectively, offer contradictory views on Russia’s success in the conflict and likely outcomes.

In the excerpted article posted on Red Culture Net, career military officer Peng Guangqian portrays the war as simply an extension of Russian-U.S. competition, with Ukraine simply an unfortunate proxy being used, as he says, as “cannon fodder.  He goes on to repeat the conspiracy theory that the United States was operating biowarfare labs in Ukraine and concludes by praising Russia’s efforts and predicting a Russian victory.  Peng’s military background, generation, and the fora used to publish this article suggest that he represents a more conservative thread in Chinese Communist Party thinking.  His almost blind acceptance of Russia’s position should not be taken as indicative of broader Chinese support for Russia.  His attitudes may be more due to his generation (for comparison Peng is 78, while President Xi Jinping is 68).  Anecdotal evidence suggests that the broader Chinese public is more jaded and acknowledges Russia’s high losses, even when they accept Chinese government media narratives. 

In the second excerpted article from Phoenix News, veteran diplomat Gao Yusheng examines the broader implications of the conflict.  Censors quickly deleted the post, but his opinions are likely representative of a much more realistic group of retired and senior leaders.  In a stark contrast with Peng’s commentary, Gao argues that Russia’s “coming defeat is increasingly clear.”  He acknowledges that Putin has been trying to re-establish the Soviet Union’s sphere of influence and “has never really recognized the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of other former Soviet states.”  He notes “Russia has frequently violated their territoriality and sovereignty” and concludes that “Russia’s political, economic, military and diplomatic power will be significantly weakened and isolated. Russia will be…punished.  Russia’s power will weaken even more.” China further formalized its increasing alignment with Russia shortly before the war broke out (see “China-Russia Pledges of Deeper Cooperation Show Tangible Results,” OE Watch, #3 2022).  The outbreak of war raised fierce internal debates about Russia’s chances for victory in Ukraine and the ultimate consequences of the war for China.  The continuing promotion of pro-Russia narratives, and suppression of even moderate views like Ambassador Gao’s, along with other diplomatic actions, point toward a decision to stand firmly, albeit rhetorically, with Russia.

Source:

Peng Guangqian, “谁是乌克兰战场的胜利者和失败者? (Who are the Winners and Losers on the Ukrainian Battlefield?)” Red Culture Net (PRC State-approved NGO), 16 May 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220518222056/https://www.hswh.org.cn/wzzx/xxhq/oz/2022-05-15/75413.html

The United States is the real planner, instigator, organizer, commander and financier of the war in Ukraine. Although the United States tried its best to urgently send people, money, and guns, it failed to turn the tide of the war. U.S. military weapons have become the spoils of the Russian army, and the military advisers sent by the United States became the prisoners of the Russian army. The severe economic crisis in the United States has made things worse, and the domestic contradictions and infighting of the ruling clique have become more acute.

What makes the United States especially desperate and fearful is that the Russian army successfully conquered the biological laboratory hidden in Ukraine with the purpose of exterminating human beings, and has a large amount of ironclad evidence that the United States has long denied the secret development of biological weapons.

…

Russia’s just actions against [NATO] expansion, encirclement, and hegemony have been supported by all peace-loving forces. To measure the outcome of a war, it is not just a simple comparison of offensive and defensive situations, casualties, and positional gains and losses, but more importantly, the political underpinnings and goals of combat operations. In this contest, Russia represented the interests of the majority of the people and did not hesitate to sacrifice its nation. It not only safeguarded Russia’s own national security and strategic frontiers, but also destroyed the nest of the U.S. biological laboratories in Ukraine, exposing the evil face of the U.S. against humanity. This is a victory for Russia and a great victory for the cause of contemporary world peace and human progress. No matter what tests will be faced in the future, Russia’s brilliant achievements will be glorified in the annals of history.

Source: “中国驻乌克兰前⼤使⾼⽟⽣：俄乌战争的⾛势和对国际秩序的影响 (Former PRC Ambassador to Ukraine Gao Yusheng: The Dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian War and the Implications for the International Order),” Phoenix News (PRC State affiliated media), 10 May 2022. https://archive.ph/20220510105105/https://news.ifeng.com/c/8Fu9YlXw7qR

The Russo-Ukrainian War is the most important international event of the post-Cold War period. It marks the end of the post-Cold War period and the beginning of a new international order. First, Russia has lost the initiative in the Russo-Ukrainian war and this failure is already apparent.

The main reasons why Russia is now heading towards defeat are:

First, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia has always been in a historical process of continuous decline. This decline is first and foremost a continuation of the decline of the Soviet Union before the disintegration, and is also related to the mistakes of the Russian ruling clique in domestic and foreign policies. Western sanctions have intensified this process. The proposition of a so-called revival or revitalization of Russia under Putin’s leadership is totally false, and the decline of Russia has manifested in its economy, military, science and technology, politics, society and other fields, with serious negative consequences for the Russian military and its combat power.

Second, the failure of the Russian blitzkrieg and the failure to achieve a quick victory signaled the beginning of the Russian defeat. The Russian military’s economic and financial strength, which are not commensurate with its status as a so-called military superpower, could not support a high-tech war costing hundreds of millions of dollars a day. The embarrassing defeat of the Russian army due to its poverty was evident everywhere on the battlefield. Every day that the war continues represents a heavy burden for Russia.

Third, Russian military and economic advantages over Ukraine have been offset by the resilience of Ukraine and the huge, sustained and effective aid provided to Ukraine. The generational differences between Russia and the U.S. and other NATO countries in terms of weapons and technology, military concepts, and modes of warfare make the advantages and disadvantages of both sides even more pronounced.

Fourth, modern wars are necessarily hybrid wars, which encompass military, economic, political, diplomatic, public opinion, propaganda, intelligence, and information fields. Russia is not only in a passive position on the battlefield, but has also lost in other areas. This means that it is only a matter of time before Russia is finally. It is only a matter of time before Russia is finally defeated.Fifth, Russia is no longer in a position to determine when and how the war will end. Russia has already failed to end the war as soon as possible to preserve its gains. In this sense, Russia has lost its strategic leading position and the initiative.

Turkish-Made Bayraktar TB2 Drones Play Important Role in Ukraine

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Bayraktar TB2.

Bayraktar TB2.

“The achievements of the TB2 drones are the first signs of the impact of unmanned systems in naval warfare… drone warfare will be an integral part of naval warfare in the near future.”

Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones are playing a force multiplier role for Ukraine in its war with Russia.  According to several Turkish defense experts, the way Ukrainian forces have used these drones in the current conflict are marking new chapters in the use of drones in naval warfare and possibly in anti-submarine warfare.  While it is too early to tell if TB2s are changing the trajectory of the conflict, they have given Ukrainian forces a significant advantage and have had at least a psychological effect on both sides so far.

Turkey’s TB2 drones came under the spotlight early in the conflict when the Ukrainian military released video footage of them destroying Russian tanks.  More recently, the TB2 emerged as a key tool in the sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva, although it is not exactly clear what role it played.  As the first accompanying passage from Nikkei Asia notes, one theory claims that Ukrained used TB2s to distract the Moskva when it launched anti-ship missiles.  Another theory claims Ukraine used TB2s to pinpoint the exact location of the cruiser in the Black Sea, enabling precision strikes against it.

In early May, the Ukrainian Air Force staged a raid on the Russian force occupying Ukraine’s strategic Snake Island.  TB2 drones played an important role by waging a defense-suppression campaign over the island, knocking out at least three air defense systems, two Russian patrol boats, and a landing craft along the shore.  As the second passage by Turkish naval expert Tayfun Özberk notes, the attack on Russian patrol boats and a landing craft marked the first successful neutralization of naval vessels by an uncrewed system.  Özberk claims this is the start of a new era in the use of drones in naval warfare.  During this same raid, the TB2 drones also destroyed a Russian Mi-8 helicopter.  As the final passage from an interview with Turkish defense expert Özgür Ekşi notes, this may also suggest a new chapter in military doctrine.  Ekşi claims that if the Mi-8 helicopter was hovering in the air when it was hit, this would indicate that the TB2 drone can also calculate the height/altitude of targets, adding a third dimension to its usage.  He also claimed this would be a game changer in anti-submarine warfare, since anti-submarine helicopters working to detect and track submarines would be at risk of an attack by a smart munition from a drone while hovering in air.

Sources:

Sinan Tavşan, “Turkish-made drones likely involved in Moskva sinking,” Nikkei Asia, 18 April 2022. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Turkish-made-drones-likely-involved-in-Moskva-sinking

“Reports that Turkish TB2 drones were involved in the attack either as a distraction for Moskva or as location spotter of Moskva are both quite possible,” said Can Kasapoglu, director of the security and defense studies program at the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), Turkish think tank.

Source: Tayfun Özberk, “Russian Serna-Class LCU Becomes the New Victim of TB2 Drone,” Naval News, 8 May 2022. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/05/russian-serna-class-lcu-becomes-the-new-victim-of-tb2-drone/

TB2s’ recent attack on the Raptor-class patrol boats on 02 May 2022 marked the first successful neutralization of naval vessels by an uncrewed system. The assault on the Serna class landing craft marks the second one. In both attacks, TB2s used MAM-L smart munitions manufactured by the Turkish Roketsan company.

…

The achievements of the TB2 drones are the first signs of the impact of unmanned systems in naval warfare.  Unmanned systems that provide not only ISR support but also strike operations will provide tactical flexibility to decision-makers on the naval battlefield.  Because such systems can conduct missions without risking human lives, and thanks to their capabilities that are growing daily, drones will become a suitable replacement for manned systems.  As a result, drone warfare will be an integral part of naval warfare in the near future.

Source:  Tolga Özbek chats with Özgür Ekşi, “TB2 Ukrayna’da gemi ve helikopter vurdu, sirada ne var? (TB2 struck ship and helicopter in Ukraine, what next?),” TolgaOzbek.com via YouTube, 9 May 2022. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qo-eKSL0A7A&list=WL&index=39&t=12s

On 8 May, images appeared on the internet of a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 Drone blowing up a Russian Mi-8 helicopter as troops landed on Snake Island… If this helicopter was in the hovering position, [this means that] a TB2 hit a flying platform, which is a success and a new page in military doctrine…  This means that these drones can also calculate the height of targets.  Until now, we talked about two dimensions, land and water.  But now, it can calculate height/altitude, which means it can also hit a flying target.  This is a new thing for air platforms.

Image Information:

Image: Bayraktar TB2.
Source: Bayhaluk via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bayraktar_TB2_Runway.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0

Turkey Tightens Grip on Black Sea amid War in Ukraine

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TCG Yavuz, the lead ship of Yavuz-class frigate of the Turkish Navy.

TCG Yavuz, the lead ship of Yavuz-class frigate of the Turkish Navy.

“We want the balance [in the Black Sea] not to be disturbed… If the balance is disturbed here, the probability of events getting out of control is very high.” -Hulusi Akar, Turkish Defense Minister

Turkey has seized on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to increase its control of the Black Sea by closing it to foreign warships, stepping up natural gas exploration efforts, and holding naval exercises.  The three accompanying articles from Turkish sources discuss Turkey’s actions regarding the Black Sea in these areas. 

First, Turkey has closed off the Black Sea to Ukrainian and Russian warships by invoking the Montreux Convention of 1936, which gives Turkey the right to prevent warships of warring sides (other than those returning to their bases) from using the Dardanelles and Bosporus Straits during war.  Accordingly, after Ukrainian forces in mid-April sunk the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, Russia was unable to sail its two other ships of the same class into the Black Sea to replace it.  As noted in the first excerpted article from pro-government Turkish publication Hürriyet, in addition to blocking Russia and Ukraine from bringing warships into the Black Sea, Turkey has also warned its NATO Allies not to enter the Black Sea during the war in Ukraine to prevent the conflict from expanding.  Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar noted that this would mitigate the possibility of any rivalry and maintain the peaceful status quo in the Black Sea. 

According to the excerpted article from Turkey’s Daily Sabah, as of April 2022, Turkey had dispatched its three drilling ships to the Sakarya gas field in the Black Sea to harness 540 billion cubic meters of natural gas it discovered in 2020.  Russia supplies about 45 percent of Turkey’s natural gas imports, so this effort would reduce Turkey’s reliance on Russian natural gas by about a quarter when it reaches peak production.  Turkey plans to start pumping gas from this field in 2023 and to increase production in the five years after that.  However, this will depend on Turkey first building an offshore pipeline network and processing facilities.  Turkish officials have regarded natural gas discovery in the Black Sea as an important step toward Turkey’s energy independence.

In April, Turkey also showcased its naval power during the “Blue Homeland” exercises  in the Mediterranean, Aegean, and Black Seas.  The article quotes President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s televised address the last day of exercises saying, “We will continue to work until we become the strongest army in the region with our ships, submarines and weapon systems.”

Sources:

Sedat Ergin, “Savunma Bakanı Akar’dan NATO’ya hassas Karadeniz mesajları: “Karadeniz’in dışında kalınırsa isabet olur” (Sensitive Black Sea messages from Defense Minister Akar to NATO: “It will be better to stay out of the Black Sea”),” Hürriyet (a pro-government Turkish daily),25 Nisan 2022. https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/yazarlar/sedat-ergin/savunma-bakani-akardan-natoya-hassas-karadeniz-mesajlari-karadenizin-disinda-kalinirsa-isabet-olur-42050416

[Defense Minister Hulusi Akar] reveals that Turkey made a series of suggestions to its NATO allies not to enter the Black Sea with warships during the war [in Ukraine]. The Minister does not hide the fact that Turkey’s expectation was conveyed to the NATO allies… and says:

…We want the balance [in the Black Sea] not to be disturbed… If the balance is disturbed here, the probability of events getting out of control is very high. Let’s not turn the Black Sea into a competitive environment.

Source: “Turkey to extend incentives for $10B Black Sea gas field development),” Daily Sabah (a pro-government Turkish daily), 20 April 2022. https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/turkey-to-extend-incentives-for-10b-black-sea-gas-field-development  

Turkey will be extending government support for the massive project to develop the natural gas field it discovered in the Black Sea…

Turkey is building an industrial complex that will process the gas the country discovered in the Sakarya gas field, located some 150 kilometers (93 miles) off the coast of Turkey in the Black Sea. The facility is expected to be operational in the first quarter of 2023.

The country’s first drilling vessel, Fatih, has discovered 540 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas in the Sakarya gas field since August 2020.

Turkey is fully dependent on gas imports, mainly from Russia, but the Sakarya field is expected to reduce those imports by about a quarter once it reaches peak production.

Ankara plans to begin pumping gas from the southwest Black Sea field in 2023 but must first build an offshore pipeline network and processing facilities.

…Expansion of the project over the next 10 years is expected to eventually lift annual production capacity to 14 bcm.

…The gas extracted from the gas field will be brought onshore through a pipeline that will be laid beneath the Black Sea.

…Scheduled to be constructed this year, the 170-kilometer pipeline will connect the wells in the region to the main grid.

The first phase of construction of the Western Black Sea Natural Gas Pipeline section will be carried out in two stages…

Source: “Mavi Vatan 2022 tatbikatı tamamlandı (Blue Homeland 2022 exercises completed),” NTV (a pro-government Turkish news channel),21 April 2022. https://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/mavi-vatan-2022-tatbikati-tamamlandi,9-YP3y3e4EWPSlU1jcnlng

…Participating in the Blue Homeland exercises through a live broadcast, President Erdoğan said: “We will continue to work until we become the strongest army in the region with our ships, submarines and weapon systems.”

Blue Homeland exercises… in coordination with the personnel in the Black Sea, Aegean and eastern Mediterranean, concluded successfully. Airplanes, ships and our personnel have shown that they are always ready for the exercise.

It is imperative for Turkey to have a strong naval force. We attach special importance to developing our naval forces in terms of equipment and personnel and to make the highest contribution to the defense of the homeland.

We will continue to work until we become the strongest army in the region with our ships, submarines and weapon systems.

Image Information:

Image: TCG Yavuz, the lead ship of Yavuz-class frigate of the Turkish Navy.
Source: Nevit Dilmen, Own Work, via Wikimedia,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Istanbul_1000146_Nevit.jpg
Attribution: CC-BY-SA-3.0 | GFDL | Self-published work

Kremlin Using Education Policy To Foster Approval of Its “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine

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“The children of the soldiers who died in the special operation in Ukraine will be able to study free of charge at the Russian State Social University (RGSU).” 

Alongside its extensive media arsenal to maintain public support for the “special military operation” in Ukraine, the Kremlin has also mobilized its educational system.  As the first excerpt from the Moscow regional source M24 points out, children of Russian service personnel who have died fighting in this operation “will be able to study free of charge at the Russian State Social University (RGSU).”  The article posits that this education initiative might expand to include the “country’s leading universities, [which] will support our initiative and accept educational certificates from the RGSU as an exchange basis for free education.”  Meanwhile, the Ministry of Education (MoE) continues to develop mandatory courses for school-aged children to ensure that they understand the Kremlin’s narrative surrounding this operation.  In addition to grasping the Kremlin’s historical justification (see: “Teaching Russian School Children about Ukraine,” OE Watch, April 2022), the brief excerpt from the pro-business site Kommersant describes how the MoE has now developed school lessons covering both Western sanctions and import substitution.  The article stresses that “the teacher should show Russia’s ability to overcome the negative consequences of Western countries’ sanctions pressure on the economic sphere of our society.” According to the article, “teachers should tell children about the benefits of import substitution,” and how this program will strengthen the Russian economy.  The article concludes by citing economic experts asked to gauge the effectiveness of such lessons.  One skeptical expert commented, “in the summer, or certainly in the fall, the children will come home and see for themselves that the family has no money, that there is no way to buy any goods.”

Source:

“Дети погибших в спецоперации на Украине военных получат бесплатное образование в РГСУ (Children of soldiers who died in a special operation in Ukraine will receive free education at the RGSU),” M24.ru (Moscow based regional news outlet), 26 March 2022. https://www.m24.ru/news/obrazovanie/26032022/444852

The children of the soldiers who died in the special operation in Ukraine will be able to study free of charge at the Russian State Social University (RGSU). This was reported on the official website of the university….

…The university expressed the hope that other Russian universities would also support the initiative, since the children of the military who died during the special operation may have different educational plans, including specialties that the RGSU does not teach.

“In such cases, we expect that other Russian state educational institutions chosen by them, including the country’s leading universities, will support our initiative and accept educational certificates from the RGSU as an exchange basis for free education,” the Russian State Social University concluded.

Source: Anna Vasilyeva, Maria Starikova, Olga Nikitina; Vlad Nikiforov, Alexander Dremlyugin,“Школам завезли антисанкционки (Anti-sanctions brought to schools),” Kommersant (Russian pro-business news media), 5 April 2022. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5293728

As it became known to Kommersant, Russian schools received new recommendations on conducting special lessons against the backdrop of a “special military operation” in Ukraine. This time, teachers should organize classes for students in grades 5–9 and 10–11 on the topic “Anti-Russian sanctions and their impact on the domestic economy.” In the training manual, this “influence” is presented as rather positive – schoolchildren will be told about the growth in the share of Russian products in several areas, and then they will be asked to assess which countries will suffer large economic losses from sanctions…. 

…As stated in the training manual, the teacher should “show Russia’s ability to overcome the negative consequences of Western countries’ sanctions pressure on the economic sphere of our society, give an idea of ​​the main directions of the anti-sanctions policy in the Russian Federation.” Teachers should tell children about the benefits of import substitution….

“The lesson materials invite schoolchildren to familiarize themselves with the measures taken by the president and the government to counter sanctions from unfriendly countries,” the Ministry of Education told Kommersant….

…Kommersant asked economists to comment on the manual. Natalya Zubarevich, a specialist in the field of socio-economic development of the regions, refused to study it. “Why should I read these manuals? And so it is clear that we will lose the most advanced technological industries,” she told Kommersant. “In the summer, or certainly in the fall, the children will come home and see for themselves that the family has no money, that there is no way to buy any goods.”

More Wonder Weapons on Russia’s Drawing Board

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Peresvet Military Laser System.

Peresvet Military Laser System.

“The State Weapons Program (SWP) will focus on the creation of non-traditional types of weapons, including directed energy weapons, kinetic weapons, as well as artificial intelligence control systems and robotic systems.”

Despite military setbacks in Ukraine, Russia’s military industry (VPK) remains dedicated to developing military prowess, according to the excerpted article from the somewhat independent Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obezreniye.  Over the past decade, the Kremlin has focused on military modernization and improved combat capabilities, frequently demonstrating and asserting that the Russian armed forces are now a formidable power.  Perceived military superiority was likely a key factor underpinning the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine in late February 2022.  After the past couple months, however, maintaining this façade of military dominance has become more challenging.  

The article describes a recent meeting between President Putin and Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov, during which they discussed the upcoming State Weapons Program.  According to the article, Russia’s military industry remains on the cusp of “the creation of non-traditional types of weapons, including directed energy weapons, kinetic weapons, as well as artificial intelligence control systems and robotic systems.”  While the article omits the possible effects of Western economic sanctions on Russia’s military industry, it does provide examples of new weapons allowing Russia “to deliver massive strikes against enemy [Ukraine] infrastructure.”  The article also notes that “in December 2019, the world’s first really working combat laser system ‘Peresvet’ was put on combat duty,” but admits that there are questions surrounding its capabilities.  The article concludes by referring to developments in “robotics and artificial intelligence systems,” claiming that “large-scale work is underway in Russia to create ‘soulless’ combat units.”

Source:

“Разящая кинетика, направленное действие, искусственный интеллект (Breaking kinetics, directed action, artificial intelligence),” Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obezreniye (NVO-Independent Military Observer; somewhat independent), 7 April 2022. https://nvo.ng.ru/nvoweek/2022-04-07/2_1184_week.html

Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov promised the emergence of non-traditional weapons in Russia. The State Weapons Program (SWP) will focus on the creation of non-traditional types of weapons, including directed energy weapons, kinetic weapons, as well as artificial intelligence control systems and robotic systems. As reported on the Kremlin website, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov spoke about this at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. “The work on preparing the initial data for the next SAP has been completed, by mid-2023 it will be formed and submitted for approval.

…During the special operation in Ukraine, we are already talking about the effectiveness of using high-precision weapons. These are ship-based cruise missiles ‘Caliber,’ aviation Kh-555, Kh-101 and Dagger, which allow the country to deliver massive strikes against enemy infrastructure….

…However, Yuri Borisov speaks of a completely different level of weapons…. Another non-traditional direction could be laser weapons. In December 2019, the world’s first really working combat laser system ‘Peresvet’ was put on combat duty. There is still no exact understanding of whether it ‘burns or dazzles’ the optical instruments of air objects. But it is already obvious: the country is actively working on the development of this type of weapon….

Robotics and artificial intelligence systems are also a priority. If you look at the exposition of the exhibition-forum ‘Army’ in Kubinka near Moscow, it becomes obvious that large-scale work is underway in Russia to create ‘soulless’ combat units.

Image Information:

Image: Peresvet Military Laser System
Source: mil.ru
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0