Tag Archives: Russia

Sanctions Threaten Russia’s Arctic Energy Projects

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“Moscow’s war against Ukraine is having a large toll on one of the most remote parts of the planet. The region that over the past years has been a top priority for the Russian government is now about to face a serious economic setback.  Several of the new oil and gas projects, mines and infrastructure initiatives that until recently have been under development might now come to a grinding halt.”

According to the accompanying article from Norwegian independent news outlet The Barents Observer, the West’s economic measures against Russia will slow or stop most major Russian Arctic development projects.  Russia’s past response to Western sanctions has been to become more self-reliant, which requires financial outlays and time.  According to the article, Russia will find it difficult to acquire the partnerships and financing necessary to become self-reliant and continue its current pace of Arctic development.  Thus, Russian ambitions in the Arctic are certain to suffer in addition to all the other consequences Russia will face because of Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

Source:

Atle Staalesen, “Big Collapse looms Over Russian Arctic Policy,” The Barents Observer (Norwegian independent news source), 30 March 2022.  https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2022/03/big-collapse-looms-over-russian-arctic-policy

Moscow’s war against Ukraine is having a large toll on one of the most remote parts of the planet.  The region that over the past years has been a top priority for the Russian government is now about to face a serious economic setback.  Several of the new oil and gas projects, mines and infrastructure initiatives that until recently have been under development might now come to a grinding halt.

Natural Gas Company Novatek confirmed that it will stop the development of its liquefied natural gas projects in the region.  It will only complete the first train of the Arctic LNG 2.  [An LNG train is a liquefied natural gas plants liquefaction and purification facility…].  According to original plans, the project’s first train is to come into production in 2023 and deliver 6.6 million tons of LNG to the market.  The project train number two and three that were to be ready in 2024 and 2025 respectively will be postponed.  The announcement comes after French project partner Total made clear that it is halting all new investmentsin Russia.  Other international oil and gas companies have made similar announcements.  Among them are Baker Hughes, Halliburton and Schlumberger.

Novatek is fully dependent on Western technology to follow up its major Arctic LNG projects. Both the Yamal LNG and the Arctic LNG were built with foreign equipment provided by companies such as Linde, Siemens and Baker Hughes.  Ship traffic data indicate that there is still a high level of activity around the Arctic LNG 2 project port of Utrenneye.  This week, two nuclear-powered icebreakers escorted cargo vessels to site….

The new western sanctions against Russia will affect also several other industrial projects.  State oil company Rosneft is in the process of developing what is due to become the biggest oil project ever in the Arctic, and is dependent on western technology to build both infrastructure and ice-class tankers.   Also the investment basis of the project is now also increasing unclear as project partner Trafigura Group says that it is “reviewing its shareholding in Vostok Oil LLC.”

The Vostok Oil includes the building of 13 gas and oil fields in the remote Taymyr tundra and the annual production of more than 100 million tons by 2030.

On the Russian Arctic agenda is also the building of several mines, among them the Syradasaysky coal project in Taymyr.  This project is dependent on western tech, at least for the building of ice-class bulk carriers that can export the coal.

Ship traffic data indicate that there is still a high level of activity around the project seaport of Yenisei, despite the difficult ice conditions in the area.

As industrial projects come to a halt, Russia will not be able to meet its ambitious plans for Arctic shipping.  The objective set by President Putin in 2018 is the annual shipments of at least 80 million tons of goods on the Northern Sea Route by 2024.

The country’s Minister of the Far East and Arctic Aleksei Chekunkov during a visit to Murmansk in early March told local media that the objectives remain unchanged.  But he appears to shut his eyes for the ongoing developments that is about to fully isolate Russia in international relations and trade.

It is now increasingly unclear also whether Russia will be able to meet its plan on nuclear icebreaker construction.  The country intends to build a fleet of up to six LK-60 icebreakers in the course of the decade, as well as the super-powerful Lider.  But the Baltic and Zvezda shipyards will hardly be able to complete construction without western technology.

The Russian government in 2018 presented a 5-year plan for Arctic developments that included investment up to 5.5 trillion rubles by year 2024 and 13.5 trillion rubles by 2050.  That document now appears like nothing but a piece of paper.

In addition to the standstill in its grand industrial projects, Russia is blocked in international bodies of regional cooperation.  Russia expected dividends from its two-year presidency in the Arctic Council and planned as many as a 88 various events.The Ukraine fighting affects the plans and projections and the subsequent halt in international Arctic cooperation.  On March 4, the Arctic Council announced that it had decided to “pause all official meetings of the Council and its subsidiary bodies until further notice.”  The Barents Council followed with the same decision.

Russian Culture Ministry Proposes Possible Framework for New State Ideology

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“… In general, the document, with a certain interpretation, limits the rights and freedoms of a person prescribed in the Constitution, dictating both the way of thinking and the way of life.”

Even though the Russian constitution states that “no ideology may be established as state or obligatory,” the current Kremlin leadership continues to advance the parameters of a possible official state ideology.  The first excerpt from Russia’s official news agency, TASS, describes how the Ministry of Culture has submitted for public discussion the Fundamentals of State Policy for the Preservation and Strengthening of Traditional Russian Spiritual and Moral Values.  The article reports this proposed draft policy document “refers to a number of traditional values ​​(e.g., life, dignity, human rights and freedoms, patriotism, citizenship, service to the Fatherland…, high moral ideals, a strong family, creative work, the priority of the spiritual over the material…),” designed to strengthen Russia.  Besides listing these aspirational values, the document also identifies the dangers facing modern Russia, calling out “threats to traditional values [to include]… extremist and terrorist organizations, the actions of the United States and its allies, transnational corporations, and foreign non-profit organizations.”

The second excerpt from an editorial in the mostly independent Nezavisimaya Gazeta questions the value of such a document, suggesting that it “is reminiscent of the ideological practices of the times of the USSR.”  As this article points out, just as in Soviet times, the new document makes “it necessary for citizens to see an ideological enemy everywhere and oppose personal interests to state interests.”  The article concludes by asserting that this proposed policy “limits the rights and freedoms of a person prescribed in the Constitution, dictating both the way of thinking and the way of life.”  While this proposed document is designed to guide those involved with cultural pursuits, its impact may ultimately be felt throughout Russian society should the Kremlin approve it.

Source:

“Основы госполитики по сохранению традиционных ценностей обсудят с экспертами (Fundamentals of state policy for the preservation of traditional values ​​will be discussed with experts),” TASS (official news agency), 25 January 2022. https://tass.ru/kultura/13522119

The published version of the Fundamentals of State Policy for the Preservation and Strengthening of Traditional Russian Spiritual and Moral Values ​​is not final, the proposals will be discussed at the platforms of the upper and lower houses of parliament, in the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation and in other instances…. 

In the current version, the document, posted on the federal portal of draft regulatory legal acts, refers to the number of traditional values ​​“life, dignity, human rights and freedoms, patriotism, citizenship, service to the Fatherland and responsibility for its destiny, high moral ideals, a strong family, creative work, the priority of the spiritual over the material, humanism, mercy, justice, collectivism, mutual assistance and mutual respect, historical memory and the continuity of generations, the unity of the peoples of Russia.” Threats to traditional values, according to the authors of the project, “bears the activities of extremist and terrorist organizations, the actions of the United States and its allies, transnational corporations, foreign non-profit organizations….”

Source: “Минкультуры возвращает россиян во времена СССР (The Ministry of Culture returns Russians to Soviet times),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (mostly independent Russian media outlet), 27 January 2022. https://www.ng.ru/editorial/2022-01-27/2_8357_editorial.html

Is it necessary for citizens to see an ideological enemy everywhere and oppose personal interests to state interests?

A draft presidential decree “Fundamentals of State Policy for the Preservation and Strengthening of Traditional Russian Spiritual and Moral Values” developed by the Ministry of Culture has been submitted for public discussion. The document is intended to clarify the concept of traditional values ​​within the framework of the National Security Strategy approved by the President….

… The threat to these values, according to the authors of the document, is “the activities of extremist and terrorist organizations, the actions of the United States and its allies, transnational corporations, foreign non-profit organizations.” The document notes “the ideological and psychological impact on the citizens of Russia”, and this destructive ideology includes “the cult of selfishness, permissiveness, immorality, the denial of the ideals of patriotism, service to the Fatherland, procreation, creative labor, Russia’s positive contribution to world history and culture…”

… All this is reminiscent of the ideological practices of the times of the USSR. Then the citizens were also designated the image of the enemy and demanded that they meet “high criteria….”  The personal is opposed to the public: the primary are the needs of the state (serving the Fatherland), while the private (the cult of selfishness) are secondary.… In general, the document, with a certain interpretation, limits the rights and freedoms of a person prescribed in the Constitution, dictating both the way of thinking and the way of life.

Sanctions Likely To Weaken Russian Arms Flow to Africa

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Ethiopian soldier holding an AK-47.

Ethiopian soldier holding an AK-47.

“The wide-ranging sanctions could have serious implications for Africa. Importantly, they could affect the continent’s ability to procure and maintain military hardware from Russia.”

Economic sanctions on Russia will likely jeopardize African countries’s ability to purchase new weapons and maintain existing stockpiles, according to the excerpted article from South African news source The Conversation Africa.  As the article points out, African countries import 49 percent of its military hardware from Russia, everything from battleships and fighter jets to handguns and rifles. 

The article notes five ways the sanctions on Russia are likely to impact African defense contractors and/or militaries.  First, Russia cannot deliver military hardware that is already on order.  Second, African militaries will struggle to maintain their vast inventories of Russian weapons because the supply of spare parts is now in jeopardy.  Third, various contractual obligations between Russian arms suppliers and African nations will not be met, possibly leaving some difficult issues for courts to decide.  Fourth, arms merchants from numerous countries will try to fill the void created by Russia’s absence.  However, since so much of Africa’s weaponry is Russian made, it will not be easy for many African countries to replace their Russian weapons with Western armaments.  Fifth and finally, the already present black market in arms transfers is likely to grow as Russia and possibly some African nations look to skirt the sanctions.

The absence of Russian weapons could also prove to be an incentive for African defense industries to increase the quantity of their output as well as try to manufacture larger and more complex weapons platforms.  As the article points out, Russia might even transfer some of its defense contracts to countries such as Nigeria and South Africa, which already have a enough industrial capacity to manufacture arms.

Source:

Moses B. Khanyile, “Sanctions against Russia will affect arms sales to Africa: the risks and opportunities,” The Conversation Africa (South African independent news source), 27 March 2022. https://theconversation.com/sanctions-against-russia-will-affect-arms-sales-to-africa-the-risks-and-opportunities-180038

 The wide-ranging sanctions could have serious implications for Africa. Importantly, they could affect the continent’s ability to procure and maintain military hardware from Russia.

The biggest buyers of armaments from Russia – and most long-standing importers – are Algeria, Angola, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco and Uganda.

In the past Russia has been astute in filling the void left by western countries. It did this in 2013 when the US cut off military aid and arms to Egypt after the military staged a coup. Suppliers such as Russia and France were happy to fill the gap.

The comprehensive sanctions imposed on Russia are likely to last beyond the current conflict. This implies that what may be regarded as ‘interim measures’ to fill a temporary void may end up being a long-lasting solution to Africa’s desire to produce its own military hardware for its own use, and also to reduce reliance on external suppliers.

African countries should therefore make a concerted effort to look towards defence companies on the continent for support. The African Union and South Africa, in particular, given its BRICS link, should play a central role in driving such a campaign.

Image Information:

Image: Ethiopian soldier holding an AK-47.
Source: U.S. government via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Afrimil-ethiopiansoldier.jpg
Attribution: Public Domain

More Wonder Weapons on Russia’s Drawing Board

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Peresvet Military Laser System.

Peresvet Military Laser System.

“The State Weapons Program (SWP) will focus on the creation of non-traditional types of weapons, including directed energy weapons, kinetic weapons, as well as artificial intelligence control systems and robotic systems.”

Despite military setbacks in Ukraine, Russia’s military industry (VPK) remains dedicated to developing military prowess, according to the excerpted article from the somewhat independent Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obezreniye.  Over the past decade, the Kremlin has focused on military modernization and improved combat capabilities, frequently demonstrating and asserting that the Russian armed forces are now a formidable power.  Perceived military superiority was likely a key factor underpinning the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine in late February 2022.  After the past couple months, however, maintaining this façade of military dominance has become more challenging.  

The article describes a recent meeting between President Putin and Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov, during which they discussed the upcoming State Weapons Program.  According to the article, Russia’s military industry remains on the cusp of “the creation of non-traditional types of weapons, including directed energy weapons, kinetic weapons, as well as artificial intelligence control systems and robotic systems.”  While the article omits the possible effects of Western economic sanctions on Russia’s military industry, it does provide examples of new weapons allowing Russia “to deliver massive strikes against enemy [Ukraine] infrastructure.”  The article also notes that “in December 2019, the world’s first really working combat laser system ‘Peresvet’ was put on combat duty,” but admits that there are questions surrounding its capabilities.  The article concludes by referring to developments in “robotics and artificial intelligence systems,” claiming that “large-scale work is underway in Russia to create ‘soulless’ combat units.”

Source:

“Разящая кинетика, направленное действие, искусственный интеллект (Breaking kinetics, directed action, artificial intelligence),” Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obezreniye (NVO-Independent Military Observer; somewhat independent), 7 April 2022. https://nvo.ng.ru/nvoweek/2022-04-07/2_1184_week.html

Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov promised the emergence of non-traditional weapons in Russia. The State Weapons Program (SWP) will focus on the creation of non-traditional types of weapons, including directed energy weapons, kinetic weapons, as well as artificial intelligence control systems and robotic systems. As reported on the Kremlin website, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov spoke about this at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. “The work on preparing the initial data for the next SAP has been completed, by mid-2023 it will be formed and submitted for approval.

…During the special operation in Ukraine, we are already talking about the effectiveness of using high-precision weapons. These are ship-based cruise missiles ‘Caliber,’ aviation Kh-555, Kh-101 and Dagger, which allow the country to deliver massive strikes against enemy infrastructure….

…However, Yuri Borisov speaks of a completely different level of weapons…. Another non-traditional direction could be laser weapons. In December 2019, the world’s first really working combat laser system ‘Peresvet’ was put on combat duty. There is still no exact understanding of whether it ‘burns or dazzles’ the optical instruments of air objects. But it is already obvious: the country is actively working on the development of this type of weapon….

Robotics and artificial intelligence systems are also a priority. If you look at the exposition of the exhibition-forum ‘Army’ in Kubinka near Moscow, it becomes obvious that large-scale work is underway in Russia to create ‘soulless’ combat units.

Image Information:

Image: Peresvet Military Laser System
Source: mil.ru
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0

Russian Orthodox Church Blesses “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine

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Interior of Main Military Cathedral in Russia.

Interior of Main Military Cathedral in Russia.

“The Patriarch said that these days the historical fate of the Russian people is being decided….”

In early April, Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) publicly expressed strong support for the Kremlin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.  During a service atthe main military temple in Kubinka, “the head of the Russian Orthodox Church called on the military to be faithful to the oath, to defend their fatherland at all costs,” according to the excerpt from the somewhat independent source Nezavisimaya Gazeta.  The Patriarch echoed the Kremlin’s narrative regarding which country is the chief enemy today, proclaiming that “most countries of the world are under the colossal influence of one force, which today, unfortunately, has become the opposing force of our people.”  He concluded his sermon by stressing that “we must be very strong.  When I say ‘we,’ I mean primarily the Armed Forces… All our people today should… understand that a special time has come, on which the historical fate of our people may depend.”

When the ROC consecrated the main military cathedral two years ago, many observers remarked that the church was instilling a religious component into the Kremlin’s patriotic ideology (see “Russian Religious Patriotism,” OE Watch, July 2020).  The Kremlin leadership, along with a pliant ROC, understand that Russian soldiers may be reluctant to defend a corrupt political system, but they might be willing to fight and die for their religion.

Source:

Andrei Melnikov, “Патриарх Кирилл возложил на армию ответственность за судьбу русского народа (Patriarch Kirill made the army responsible for the fate of the Russian people),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (somewhat independent Russian news source), 3 April 2022. https://www.ng.ru/faith/2022-04-03/2_8407_relig.html

Patriarch Kirill celebrated the Sunday liturgy and delivered a sermon in the main church of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The head of the Russian Orthodox Church called on the military to be faithful to the oath, to defend their fatherland at all costs. The Patriarch said that these days the historical fate of the Russian people is being decided….

…His sermon was sustained in the spirit of previous speeches on the situation in Ukraine. According to the patriarch, some powerful forces are playing off the fraternal peoples, and between Russia and the West there is, as he used to call it, a “metaphysical war.” Moreover, this time the mobilization call sounded even more clearly.

“Serving in the Armed Forces is a real feat,” said the head of the Russian Orthodox Church.  It requires readiness from everyone who has taken the oath to defend their homeland, not sparing their lives. Therefore, today our special prayer is for the Armed Forces, for our soldiers, with whom the hope for security, for freedom, for the true independence of our country is associated. “Most of the countries of the world are under the colossal influence of one force, which today, unfortunately, has become the opposing force of our people,” he explained. “Because there is great strength, and we must be very strong. When I say ‘we’, I mean the Armed Forces in the first place. But not only. All our people today should, as it were, wake up, start up, understand that a special time has come, on which the historical fate of our people may depend.”

Image Information:

Image: Interior of Main Military Cathedral in Russia.
Source: Sergey Sebelev via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Patriot_Military_Temple_Risen_Christ.jpg 
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl

A Russian Strategic Assessment of Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine

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“The result of the defeat of Nazi Ukraine will be a sharp drop in American and, in general, Western influence in the world…”

The accompanying excerpted article from Russian military and defense industry focused weekly Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer explains that Russian political and military leadership sees Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine as not just a local conflict between two nations, but as a front in a much larger war between Russia and the West.  The author, Konstantin Sivkov, is a retired naval officer and General Staff Academy graduate that served in the Center for Military-Strategic Research of the General Staff.  He is an expert on Russian military modernization and future warfare, the processes of armed struggle, the nature of modern wars and armed conflicts, and the organizational development of the Armed Forces.  Sivkov elaborates on how the Kremlin may perceive the big picture consequences for either succeeding or failing to achieve the campaign’s objectives.  For Russia, the success of this campaign will result not only in the imposition of its will on Ukraine, but also of its narrative on the world.  In short, the Kremlin sees the current conflict furthering one of two competing and mutually exclusive narratives: that of Russia or the West.

Source:

Konstantin Sivkov, “Украина – только начало: Геополитическим последствием спецоперации станет изменение (Ukraine is just the beginning: The geopolitical consequences of the special operation will change the entire view of the world),” Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer (weekly newspaper focusing on military and defense industry), 28 March 2022. https://vpk-news.ru/articles/66370

The special operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine continues to develop. Serious shifts are taking place in the nature of the operational use of the Russian group of forces, indicating a qualitative change in the course of the armed struggle. Under these conditions, the question arises: what will happen next, will the West stop its pressure on Russia and start negotiations, as many Russians hope, or vice versa – will the pressure become even more fierce, will new armed conflicts arise?…

…Thus, we can safely say that Russia is currently at war with the united West. This is a war of a different nature than those that took place in the 20th century. It cannot be declared, because in essence it is a classic hybrid one, from the side of the West…The scale of this hybrid war with the West suggests that it has all the hallmarks of a world war: the presence of opposing coalitions led by global centers of power that have entered directly into a military confrontation, albeit it just in the economic and information spheres, the resoluteness of goals, the use of all possible means of confrontation, refusal to comply with peacetime legal norms with the transition to the principle of military expediency practically on a global scale, drawing most countries of the world into the conflict according to the principle “if not with us, then against us”. That is, we are talking about the beginning of the third world war, which is still taking place in a refined hybrid form – the Western coalition conducts armed confrontation using its proxies — the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in a limited TVD [theater of operations] within Ukrainian territory, while conducting full-scale global economic and information warfare against our country.

…regardless of the outcome of the special operation in Ukraine, the war of the Western coalition against Russia will continue to escalate — the Western and global elites cannot stop without defeating Russia, or suffering a final defeat in this war. After all, at stake is the shape of the future world, of which there are only two variants. One proclaimed Klaus Schwab — the mouthpiece of the globalists. It has no place for states and national elites — the world is controlled by transnational corporations, and is actually privatized by them. An alternative to it is the concept of a multipolar world proclaimed by our president last year at the Davos forum and subsequent key international summits, where states remain the subjects of world politics, and there is no place for the global power of transnational corporations and the corresponding elites.

These two options are mutually exclusive. The victory of one of them means the inevitable collapse, death, at least political and economic sense, and the disappearance of the bearers and beneficiaries of the alternative option into history. Therefore, the struggle has an extremely tough character, when all means are used that can be used without risking their own immediate death. For Western and global elites, the central task on this path is the defeat and subjugation of Russia…

The defeat of Nazi Ukraine will mean the collapse of the entire strategy built by the West and the globalists over the last 20 years. The consequences of this defeat could be catastrophic for the globalists and have a geopolitical scale. Signs of this are already manifesting themselves today in the emerging rapprochement between the UAE and Saudi Arabia with Russia, China’s tough position on the Ukrainian issue, Venezuela’s demand to recognize Maduro as the country’s legitimate president as a condition for starting negotiations with the United States on oil supplies, and a number of other similar manifestations that indicate a loss of authority of the US and the West in the general world order. The result of the defeat of Nazi Ukraine will be a sharp drop in American and, in general, Western influence in the world, which will have the most severe consequences for the economy. Under these conditions, revenge for the Ukrainian defeat may become the main leitmotif of US-European geopolitics.

In turn, the termination of the special operation with the preservation of the current regime, even with a host of various treaty guarantees, will mean a military defeat for Russia. And the consequences of this will be very severe, primarily in the domestic socio-political situation. Such a step will have a negative impact on the international position and status of our country.Therefore, further escalation of tension in the world, especially military, will increase, and we can expect the next stage of the initial period of the third world [war]…

Russia’s BARS Reserve System Inducting Cossacks

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Cossacks in Conference.

Cossacks in Conference.

Reservists in training.

Reservists in training.

BARS servicemen in training.

BARS servicemen in training.

BARS training site.

BARS training site.

“[T]his year the mobilization reserve will include 1134 Cossacks: “A separate Cossack regiment will be formed with these reservists, and they will be commanded by Cossacks and wear Cossack uniforms.”

“In general, territorial defense companies staffed with reservists have been actively participating in the combat training activities of the district since 2016.  One of them successfully completed the tasks according to the plans of the Zapad-2021 strategic exercise, which took place in the Western Military District…”

The accompanying excerpted article from the Southern Military District Press Service describes Russian plans to man its new reserve system with Cossack militiamen.  The Cossacks are an ethnic group mostly found in Russia and Eastern Europe.  Historically, Cossack communities were allowed self-governance in exchange for military service.  Cossacks are no longer self-governing, but their tradition of military service continues in two forms.  First, a few Russian military units are designated as “Cossack” units.  These units are usually found in Cossack areas and only differ from regular units due to the honorific, such as the 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Cossack) of the 49th Combined Arms Army in the Southern Military District.  The second form of Cossack military service is that of the Cossack militia.  These militias are authorized by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation No. 154-FZ “On State Service of the Russian Cossacks” dated 5 December 2005.  In practice, these militias are not usually equipped with firearms and are often used for crowd control and event security.  One exception to this was in 2014, when Cossack units fought in the Donbass.  Interestingly, there has been little reporting of Cossack exploits during Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.  According to the Southern Military District Press Service article, Cossacks from the Terek Military Cossack Host will form a separate regiment of 1,134 personnel.  The inclusion of Cossacks into the reserve system could provide Russia with the capability to put many more boots on the ground in Ukraine, if needed.  (See: “Russia’s BARS Reserve System Takes Shape,” OE Watch #4, 2022; and “Developments in Russia’s BARS System,” OE Watch #1, 2022).

Sources:

“Терские Казаки Войдут в Барс (The Terek Cossacks Will Join BARS)”, Southern Military District Press Service (press service of the Southern Military District), 2 March 2022. https://tinyurl.com/bddy3tpa

The Cossacks of the Stavropol District Cossack Host of the Terek Military Cossack Host will join country’s reserve system (BARS) as part of a separate Cossack regiment. The Terek atamans discussed the formation of a mobilization human reserve…

The atamans of the Great Don Army, Kuban, Terek, and Black Sea Military Cossack Hosts confirmed their readiness to join BARS in mid-February by signing an agreement on attracting “members of the societies as candidates for the mobilization manpower reserve of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation” with the Ministry of Defense.

The document implies the provision of assistance to the military in recruiting the mobilization manpower reserve with Cossacks: “Atamans of the Cossack societies confirmed their readiness to ensure the selection of personnel to serve in the country’s reserve system (BARS)…at least 50 percent of the Cossacks will be registered with the military and meet the criteria for being in the mobilization human reserve”…According to the press service of the Committee of the Stavropol Territory for Nationalities and Cossacks, this year the mobilization reserve will include 1134 Cossacks: “A separate Cossack regiment will be formed with these reservists, and they will be commanded by Cossacks and wear Cossack uniforms.”

Source: V Sosnitsky, “БАРС Отбирает Надежных Бойцов (BARS Selects Reliable Fighters) Armeisky Sbornik (monthly journal of the Russian Ministry of Defense), April 2022. https://rucont.ru/efd/317658

…In general, territorial defense companies staffed with reservists have been actively participating in the combat training activities of the district since 2016.  One of them successfully completed the tasks according to the plans of the Zapad-2021 strategic exercise, which took place in the Western Military District…

As Colonel Igor Yegorov, military commissar of the Rostov Region, explained, the military enlistment office of the region stood at the origins of the creation of a mobilization manpower reserve in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Since 2015, he has been taking part in an experiment to introduce a new system of troop recruitment by citizens who signed a contract to stay in the mobilization manpower reserve. In connection with the decision by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to increase the size of the mobilization reserve, at present the assignment for the selection of reservists to the military commissariat of the region is almost 5,000…

According to the training curricula, the reservists will have monthly training sessions for 2-3 days and military training once a year, as a rule, for 20 days. At training sessions and military training, reserve fighters will learn how to shoot from all types of weapons and drive military equipment, and other practical actions in their combat specialties…As for the specific use of territorial troops, in the formation of which the Southern Military District has real experience, in the event of mobilization, their task, most likely, will be the protection and defense of especially important military facilities, defending rear areas, maintaining law and order in populated areas, and providing assistance to the local population during evacuation. If reservists accomplish these tasks, active-duty personnel and subunits need not be diverted for such duties.

Image Information:

Image: Cossacks in Conference
Source: Russian Ministry of Defense, https://tinyurl.com/46jrsn8j 
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Image: Reservists in training
Source: Russian Ministry of Defense, https://function.mil.ru/images/upload/2019/rezerv_550.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Image: BARS servicemen in training
Source: Russian Ministry of Defense, https://tinyurl.com/2mvuschv
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Image: BARS training site
Source: Russian Ministry of Defense, https://function.mil.ru/images/upload/2019/UVO1_29.08.21_550.JPG
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Kremlin Pushing False Narrative About Ukraine to Russian School Children

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“I think the teachers are wrong. We are told that the people of Ukraine were brainwashed, but it seems to me that we were brainwashed here.”

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has cleansed the Russian information space has been cleansed of almost every source daring to contradict the government-approved narrative.  This unanimity of thinking has now spread to the Russian educational system.  The first excerpt from the official news agency, TASS, describes a recently mandated school lesson developed by Russia’s Ministry of Education “dedicated to the liberation mission in Ukraine [which] was watched by more than 5 million schoolchildren.”  Among other topics, the lesson “explained the danger NATO poses” to Russia, while stressing that “the Russian military does not strike at cities, but disables only the military infrastructure, so nothing threatens the civilian population.” 

The second excerpt comes from an article from Russian-run opposition news source Novaya Gazeta, which was forced to suspend operations in late March due to censorship pressure.  The article recounts what happened to a 6th grader, when during this history lesson, he “expressed his position on the ‘special operation’” in Ukraine.  The student objected to the teacher’s claims that “Ukraine started [the war], and it will end when Ukraine capitulates,” also “that Nazism is flourishing among Ukrainians.”  After this classroom incident, the teacher apparently reported the student’s disturbance to the authorities.  As the article points out, a few days later, police visited the apartment of the student’s family, turning off the electricity and leaving a summons for an interrogation.  The article concludes by quoting the 6th grade student, who said, “I think the teachers are wrong. We are told that the people of Ukraine were brainwashed, but it seems to me that we were brainwashed here.”

Source:

“Открытый урок ‘Защитники мира’ посмотрели более 5 млн школьников (More than 5 million schoolchildren watched the open lesson ‘Defenders of Peace’),” TASS (official Russian news agency), 3 March 2022. https://tass.ru/obschestvo/13956837

The All-Russian open lesson of the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation, dedicated to the liberation mission in Ukraine, was watched by more than 5 million schoolchildren, the press service of the Institute for the Study of Childhood, Family and Education of the Russian Academy of Education reports.

“More than 5 million schoolchildren watched the open lesson. During the lesson, the audience was told in detail the background to today’s events and explained what danger NATO poses to our country. The lesson also helped to figure out how to distinguish truth from lies in the flow of information,” the report says…. As noted in the text, a video was shown during the lesson, which told about the common history of Russia and Ukraine, traditions, common holidays and cultural heritage….

On February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a special military operation in Ukraine in response to the appeal of the leaders of the Donbass republics for help. He stressed that Moscow’s plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories, the goal is the demilitarization and denazification of the country. As stated in the Russian Defense Ministry, the Russian military does not strike at cities, but disable only the military infrastructure, so nothing threatens the civilian population.

Source: Irina Lukyanova, “Диссидент из 6-го ‘А’ (Dissident from the 6th A),” Novaya Gazeta (independent Russian opposition news source), 9 March 2022.

https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2022/03/07/dissident-iz-6-go-a

At a history lesson, a Moscow schoolboy expressed his position on the “special operation.” After that, the police came to his house and turned off the electricity.

Kirill… is 12 years old, he studies in the 6th grade of a Moscow school. His mother Natalia says that the boy has Ukrainian roots, he attended the Ukrainian Cultural Center. What is happening now between Russia and Ukraine hurts him.

On Friday, March 4, sixth graders had their usual history lesson. Cyril himself tells about what happened:

– The teacher said: “Actually, this is not discussed with the sixth graders, but if you want to understand what is happening, then ask questions.” And I started asking questions. I asked: “Why did Putin start a war?” To this the teacher replied that it was a “special operation.” She said: “I don’t know exactly where our troops are now, but if they had stopped halfway, the Ukrainian aggression would have continued.” A small part of the class was on my side, they also asked questions….

After that, I asked the question, why did someone start this at all and when will it all end? She said that Ukraine started it, and it will end when Ukraine capitulates. She also told us that Nazism is flourishing among Ukrainians…

This opposition of the sixth graders did not go unnoticed….

The next day, Sunday, Kirill was at home alone. Mom left for work. At this time, two policemen began to knock on the apartment, but Kirill did not open it. They knocked for about half an hour, then turned off the electricity in the apartment, left a summons “to be called for an interrogation” under the door and left. The summons contains an illegibly written date of the interrogation and a threat to “subject to arrest” in case of non-appearance….Kirill calmly explains his position: “I think the teachers are wrong. We are told that the people of Ukraine were brainwashed, but it seems to me that we were brainwashed here….”

Russian Public Approval of Military Likely To Decline over Use of Conscripts in Ukraine

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“…the official representative of the RF Ministry of Defense, Igor Konashenkov, admitted that conscripts participated in the special operation….”

Alongside Russia’s improvement in combat readiness over the past decade, we have seen a significant improvement in Russian public attitudes toward the military.  As reported earlier, (see: “Russian Patriotism and Values,” OE Watch, August 2020) polls suggest that Russians regard their military as one of the most trusted institutions, with the majority claiming that some form of military service should be mandatory for young Russian men.  However, as the accompanying excerpt from the moderate source Nezavisimaya Gazeta suggests, the ongoing conflict with Ukraine may change public attitudes toward the military.

The article reports that the official representative of Russia’s Ministry of Defense (MoD), Igor Konashenkov, admitted on 9 March that conscripts participated in the “special operation” in Ukraine.  As the article points out, this admission took on added poignancy since the day prior,  President Putin had congratulated women on International Women’s Day and asserted that only contract soldiers were participating in the operation.  As the article suggests, the Russian MoD only revealed this information after “the Ukrainian media distributed several videos showing young people who said they were captured Russian servicemen and not contract soldiers.”  The article stresses that Putin had earlier instructed the MoD “to categorically exclude the involvement of conscripts for any tasks on the territory of Ukraine.”  The article asserts that “the perpetrators of misinforming the president are planned to be identified and punished.”  If such deception continues, public attitudes toward the military will likely decline.

Source:

Vladimir Mukhin, “Минобороны России признало участие срочников в спецоперации (The Russian Defense Ministry acknowledged the participation of conscripts in the special operation),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (moderate source), 9 March 2022. https://www.ng.ru/armies/2022-03-09/2_8386_president.html

…Meanwhile, the official representative of the RF Ministry of Defense, Igor Konashenkov, admitted that conscripts participated in the special operation. Earlier, the Ukrainian media distributed several videos showing young people who say they are captured Russian servicemen and not contract soldiers. Russian officials denied this information until March 9, and President Vladimir Putin, congratulating women on International Women’s Day [8 March], confidently said that only contract soldiers were participating in the operation. “I would like to emphasize that soldiers who are serving in military service do not and will not participate in hostilities. There will be no additional call-up of reservists from the reserve,” the head of the Russian Federation said.

The position has now been corrected. “Unfortunately, several facts of the presence of conscripts in parts of the Russian armed forces involved in a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine were discovered,” Konashenkov said. – Almost all such servicemen have already been withdrawn to the territory of Russia. At the same time, a sabotage group of the national battalion attacked one of the units performing the tasks of logistical support. A number of servicemen, including conscripts, were captured.” According to Konashenkov, measures are now being taken to prevent conscripts from being sent to combat areas and to release captured soldiers.Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov said that Putin was informed that his instruction “to categorically exclude the involvement of conscripts for any tasks on the territory of Ukraine” was carried out. Now the perpetrators of misinforming the president are planned to be identified and punished….

Iran Repositions Its Proxies in Syria as Russia Turns Focus to Ukraine

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Syrian Democratic Force soldiers conduct a patrol during a joint operation with U.S. Army Soldiers in Syria on May 8, 2021.

Syrian Democratic Force soldiers conduct a patrol during a joint operation with U.S. Army Soldiers in Syria on May 8, 2021.

“…Iran will not miss this opportunity to consolidate and expand its influence in various sectors, taking advantage of the regime’s need for assistance and support…”

Local media reports indicate that Iran is “repositioning” in Syria, perhaps seeking to take advantage of the Russian military’s focus on Ukraine.  A late February report by Syria-focused Turkish think tank Jusoor Center for Studies speculates that Russia’s focus on Ukraine may detract from its involvement in Syria, “and Iran will not miss this opportunity to consolidate and expand its influence in various sectors.”   The report mentions several signs of Iran’s repositioning in Syria, including increased activities and weapons transfers by Iran-backed militias in regime-controlled areas of the Syrian desert and the Middle Euphrates River Valley, near the border with Iraq.  Tensions were rising between Russian and Iranian proxies in Deir Ezzor Province during the build up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the accompanying excerpt from the Syrian opposition media source Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.  Russian airstrikes on ISIS positions in the desert have declined substantially since the start of the war in Ukraine, even as the group has ramped up its attacks in the Syrian desert, according to a report from the pro-Syrian opposition Lebanese news website al-Modon.  The Quds Brigade, Russia’s key ally in anti-ISIS efforts in the Syrian desert, withdrew precipitously to Damascus.  Meanwhile, local media reports claim several Iraqi militias have returned to Iraq and Iranian proxies in the Fatemiyoun Brigade have redeployed in the area.  The logic behind these movements remains murky, but the accompanying excerpt from the Saudi daily al-Sharq al-Awsat speculates that they relate to strengthening supply lines and transit corridors between Iran’s proxies in Iraq and Syria.

Source:

“6 مؤشرات على إعادة تموضع إيران في سورية

(Six indicators that Iran is repositioning in Syria),” Jusoor Center for Studies (Turkey-based think tank focused on Syria), 4 March 2022. https://tinyurl.com/2p8tnvv4

Since the beginning of 2022, Iran has begun to undertake a series of political, military, economic and security activities in coordination with the Syrian regime, which indicates its repositioning in Syria…

… the continuation of conflict in Ukraine may lead to a decline in Russia’s interest in Syria.  Iran will not miss this opportunity to consolidate and expand its influence in various sectors, taking advantage of the regime’s need for assistance and support…

Source:

“تصاعد ملحوظ في الحرب الباردة بين الجانبين الروسي والإيراني في محاولة لكسب ود أهالي القرى السبع شرقي الفرات

(Notable Escalation in the Cold War between Russia and Iran in an attempt to gain allegiance from the ‘Seven Villages’ east of the Euphrates),” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (Syrian opposition media source), https://tinyurl.com/2p85pm2x, 16 February 2022.

Recently, the competition between Russia and Iran has escalated in the countryside of Deir Ezzor governorate, specifically in the so-called “seven villages” under the influence of the Iranians and the regime east of the Euphrates, and the corresponding areas on the western bank of the river…

Source:

“إيران تتمدد في سوريا..إثر تراجع النشاط الروسي

(Iran expands in Syria… following decline in Russian activities),” al-Modon (pro-Syrian Lebanese news website), 12 March 2022. https://tinyurl.com/2p8v8v9y


Russian military activities throughout the Syrian territory have declined as the Russian attack on Ukraine enters its third week. At the same time, Iranian militias are sending military reinforcements to the city of Palmyra and its surroundings.

…“the Russian aerial bombardment on the Syrian desert is half of what it was before the war on Ukraine”…


On Friday, the Palestinian “Quds Brigade” militia withdrew from the city of Palmyra, located in the eastern countryside of Homs. Militia members left the city heading towards the governorate of Damascus. The motives for this withdrawal remain unknown and it is unclear whether they will return later. According to the sources of the Syrian Observatory, the Quds Brigade’s withdrawal came without prior warning or coordination with the regime’s security services located in Palmyra and its surroundings.

Source:

“مئات من ميليشيات إيران يغادرون سوريا إلى العراق 

(Hundreds of Iranian miliitas leave Syria for Iraq),” al-Sharq al-Awsat (influential Saudi daily), 7 March 2022. https://tinyurl.com/mrdd5r2m

Syrian activists reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard began withdrawing a large number of militia members of the Fatemiyoun Brigade (Afghani) and Iraqi (Shiite) militias from military sites in the areas of Palmyra and Sukhna, east of Homs, into Iraqi territory, through unauthorized crossings. Other fighters from the (Afghan Fatemiyoun) Brigade were deployed to new camps east of Palmyra. The sites in Homs countryside and a number of military vehicles and equipment were handed over to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The development was described by activists in the region as “remarkable,” at a time when (ISIS) launched repeated attacks against regime forces and Iranian militias in the Homs desert and Deir Ezzor, incurring losses in life and equipment.

Image Information:

Image:  Syrian Democratic Force soldiers conduct a patrol during a joint operation with U.S. Army Soldiers in Syria on May 8, 2021. 
Source: Spc. Isaiah J Scott, https://www.dvidshub.net/image/6705061/sdf-conducts-patrol-syria
Attribution: Public Domain