Tag Archives: INDOPACOM

Russia and China Look To Corner Bolivia’s Lithium Industry

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“China controls 80 to 90 percent of global capacity.  This is an extremely dominant position for a country at a time when everyone is trying to expand.”

Bolivia has some of the largest deposits of lithium in the world, a mineral with civilian and military applications.  As reported by the UK-based news outlet BBC Spanish, Russia, which possesses deep experience in mining strategic minerals, is one of the major contenders to win a globally strategic contract to extract much of Bolivia’s lithium. China is another contender. According to U.S. Government international broadcaster Voz de America, China already controls 80 to 90 percent of global lithium mining capacity.  Voz de America reports that there is international concern that China will consolidate its position as the most important lithium mining power, given China’s past use of economic interdependence as a weapon.  Russian or Chinese dominance over the lithium industry risks producing another raw material dependence on authoritarian competitors.

Source:

“La carrera por los codiciados ‘minerales del future’ que pueden crear gigantescas fortunas e influir en la seguridad nacional de los países (The race for the coveted ‘minerals of the future’ that can create gigantic fortunes and influence the national security of countries),” BBC Spanish (Spanish-language version of the popular British news outlet), 21 April 2022.  https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-61144362

Russia, one of the major exporters of gas and oil, demonstrated that due to the dependence of many countries on its exports, especially European ones, fuels are a weapon of war amid the harsh economic pressures that the U.S. and its allies have pursued in order to get the Kremlin to end the invasion of Ukraine… However, in the race for the metals that will play a crucial role in future economic development, Russia has its advantages: it is the world’s second largest exporter of cobalt, the second of platinum, and the third of nickel.

Source:  “Fuerte competencia por el litio de Latinoamérica para reducir dependencia de China (Strong competition for lithium from Latin America to reduce dependence on China),” Voz de America (U.S.-based, state-owned international broadcaster), 24 June 2022. https://www.vozdeamerica.com/a/fuerte-competencia-por-el-litio-de-latinoamerica-para-reducir-dependencia-de-china/6628644.html 

The race for lithium has led manufacturers of electric vehicles to enter into contracts directly with mining companies to ensure the supply of lithium… China not only exploits lithium but also exercises a dominant position in the entire supply chain for the manufacture of electric car batteries.  Most of the battery manufacturing is in China.  China controls 80 to 90 percent of global capacity.  This is an extremely dominant position for a country at a time when everyone is trying to expand.

Profile of a Joint Staff Officer in the PLA’s Northern Theater Command

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PLA Theater Commands.

PLA Theater Commands.

“No war is conducted in full accordance with the operational plan, and no war is conducted in full non-compliance with the operational plan.’  In Zeng Xing’s view, every exercise is a rehearsal of actual combat, and the examination paper is in the future battlefield, and he is standing on the track preparing for the war and running towards the goal of winning the war.”

Since joint theater commands replaced the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Army-dominated military regions in 2015, the new structures have experienced problems with officers lacking joint experience.  To address this ongoing issue, the PLA emphasizes education and realism in training.  In an article from its official newspaper, the PLA Daily describes a “model” officer, shedding light on aspects of the theater commands and their associated staff officers.  The profiled officer is Zeng Xing, a division chief from the Joint Staff Department of the Northern Theater Command. Many PLA articles, such as this one, omit officer rank.  According to the article, Zeng has been in the Army for 19 years and an operational staff officer for 15 of those years. 

In 2019, President Xi Jinping recognized Zeng as a model officer.  The article indicates that Zeng, like many Theater Command officers holding joint positions, must learn joint operations skills on the job and through self-education, including talking to officers in other services and arms.  While on the staff of the Northern Command, Zeng studies informationized warfare theory, joint operations, joint command, and the pilot joint operations command system on his own.  He also studies foreign military operations and joint command regulations to improve his skills and knowledge.

The article particularly highlights a recent command post exercise, during which Zeng was responsible for assessing the battlefield situation and formulating the operational plan.  It noted that Zeng and his staff worked to collect, analyze, and process information, develop the operational plan, and decide on operational methods (operational art and tactics).  Following that Zeng and his staff used a simulation to preview the operational plan and combat actions to inform the commander’s decision-making in the wargame.  As the PLA views it, this model of staff officer education, including common, contemporary doctrine-based education, self-study, and exercise simulations, will bridge the joint experience gap in China’s theater commands.

Source:

“北部战区联合参谋部某处处长曾星：向着打胜仗目标全力奔跑 (Zeng Xing, Department Chief in the Joint Staff Department of the Northern Theater Command: Running towards the goal of winning the war),” PLA Daily (official newspaper of the People’s Liberation Army), 13 July, 2022. http://www.mod.gov.cn/power/2022-07/13/content_4915489.htm

The joint operations staff is a bridge connecting commanders and combat troops. In the face of complex battlefield situations, they must always keep a clear head and clear thinking. During a command post exercise, Zeng Xing was responsible for planning and formulating the operational plan. On the basis of fully understanding the determination and intention of the commander, he led his comrades in arms to work overtime, skillfully collect, analyze and process information, derive the battle plan and preview the battle methods through the simulation system, and provide reference for the commander’s decision-making.

Image Information:

Image: PLA Theater Commands
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Theatres_of_PLA_en.svg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0

China Advancing Cooperation With Pakistan’s Navy in the Indian Ocean

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“To counter India, it is important for Pakistan to improve its navy by acquiring advanced equipment from Beijing and enhancing its capabilities through these drills…”

The accompanying three excerpted articles highlight different perceptions of the growing China-Pakistan strategic partnership in the Indian Ocean.  In July, China and Pakistan held their second “Sea Guardians” joint naval exercise off the coast of Shanghai.  The exercise was meant in part to test Pakistan’s new Type 054A/P warship—the country’s most advanced Chinese-built frigate.  The Pakistani navy commissioned its first Type 054A/P, the PNS Tughril, in January and the second one, PNS Taimur, in June.  Pakistan has a contract to receive two more at an unspecified date.  According to popular Indian daily The Hindu, the “Sea Guardians” exercises are paving the way for closer security cooperation between China and Pakistan in the Indian Ocean.  Chinese and Pakistani experts point out the need to safeguard strategic sea lanes used to transport energy and goods.  They also comment on Pakistan’s need “to ensure seaward defense, maintain peace, stability and balance of power in the Indian Ocean region.”  The Hong Kong-based semi-independent South China Morning Post attributes China’s growing role in the Indian Ocean to growing U.S.-India joint maritime security cooperation.  China’s goal is to “counter U.S. efforts to advance its Indo-Pacific strategy, which emphasizes India’s continued rise and leadership in the region.”  Meanwhile, Paris-based, online media source Naval News sees the buildup of Pakistan’s naval capability more generally as an effort to counter India.  According to the article, the Pakistani navy is in the process of renewing its fleet.  In addition to the four Chinese frigates, they will be commissioning new corvettes from Turkey and a multi-purpose offshore patrol vessel from the Netherlands.  Pakistan is also modernizing its submarine fleet.  In 2016, Pakistan entered a $5 billion deal with China to acquire eight Chinese Yuan-class Type 041 diesel submarines by 2028.  According to the article, the goal is “to shift the force balance with its archrival India.”

Source:

Ananth Krishnan, “China, Pakistan Begin War Games Off Shanghai,” The Hindu (Indian daily newspaper), 10 July 2022. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-pakistan-begin-war-games-off-shanghai/article65624154.ece

China and Pakistan on Sunday began four-day naval exercises off the coast of Shanghai, involving Pakistan’s most advanced China-built frigate and paving the way for closer security cooperation between the two countries in the Indian Ocean.

Wei Dongxu, a Chinese military expert, told the paper the two countries “need to jointly demonstrate their capabilities in safeguarding strategic sea lanes that transport energy and goods.”

The first Type 054A, Tughril, was commissioned last year.  Pakistan’s envoy to China Moil Ul Haque then told Chinese media that the commissioning of the frigate “in the context of the overall security paradigm of the region” would “strengthen Pakistan Navy’s capabilities to respond to maritime challenges to ensure seaward defence, maintain peace, stability and balance of power in the Indian Ocean region.”

Source: Amber Wang, “China and Pakistan Launch Naval Drills Aimed at Countering US Indo-Pacific Strategy,” South China Morning Post (Hong Kong based semi-independent English language daily), 11 July 2022. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3184897/china-and-pakistan-launch-naval-drills-aimed-countering-us-indo

This is the second time China and Pakistan have held a “Sea Guardians” joint maritime exercise. The first was held in January 2020 in the northern Arabian Sea.

Lin Minwang, a professor of South Asian studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said the exercise would help China to expand its engagement in the Indian Ocean and counter US efforts to advance its Indo-Pacific strategy, which emphasizes India’s “continued rise” and leadership in the region.

“The strengthening of maritime security between India and the United States has led to China’s greater engagement in the Indian Ocean.”

The Indian Ocean is a vital trading hub, and 80 per cent of China’s oil imports come through the Malacca Strait, the ocean’s busiest “choke point”.

To counter India, it is important for Pakistan to improve its navy by acquiring advanced equipment from Beijing and enhancing its capabilities through these drills, according to Lin.

Source: Tayfun Ozberk,“Pakistan Navy Commissions 2nd Type 054 A/P Frigate ‘PNS Taimur,’” Naval News (Paris based naval focused news outlet), 24 June 2022. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/pakistan-navy-commissions-2nd-type-054-a-p-frigate-pns-taimur/

The Pakistan Navy is currently undertaking an important renewal of its fleet, with the procurement of several modern platforms: In addition to these frigates from China, Pakistan will also commission new corvettes from Turkey and OPV from the Netherlands.  It is also modernizing its submarine force.  In 2016, Pakistan agreed to pay China $5 billion for the acquisition of eight Chinese Yuan-class type-041 diesel submarines by 2028 in order to shift the force balance with its archrival India.

India Strengthens Security Cooperation With Vietnam

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Defense Minister Shri Rajnath Singh

“The Indian military has the advantage of operating similar platforms to Vietnam’s.”

India has taken several measures to counter China in the past several years, particularly after violent clashes on the Indian – Chinese border in 2017 and 2020.  In addition to strengthening the capabilities of its armed forces along the border, the accompanying excerpted article from the Indian independent think-tank Observer Research Foundation reveals how India is trying to improve security cooperation with Vietnam.  Following the 2020 border skirmishes, Indian officials believe future conflict with China will not likely be limited to one domain.  The article reports on Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh’s visit to Vietnam in early June, noting that he signed two security cooperation agreements.  One remains unpublished in the public domain, but the other agreement involved mutual logistics support and allows both to use the other’s military facilities for repairs and replenishment.  According to the article “this arrangement will mainly benefit the Indian Navy as it ramps up its profile in the Indo-Pacific.” Finally, the article addresses the impact of the war in Ukraine on Vietnam’s ability to procure weapons and equipment from Russia, noting that India has the potential to offer Vietnam various weapons and equipment.  India operates “similar platforms to Vietnam’s and…has leveraged this by assisting Hanoi in training and capacity building.”  Ultimately, India’s agreements with Vietnam mark another step to counter China and offer a potential market for the Indian defense industry.

Source:

Sameer Patil, “The importance of India’s defence partnership with Vietnam,” Observer Research Foundation (independent think tank in India), 28 June 2022.

https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-importance-of-indias-defence-partnership-with-vietnam/

Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh recently paid a three-day visit (8-10 June 2022) to Hanoi to strengthen defence and security ties with Vietnam…  India has also activated a satellite imaging and tracking station in Hanoi, enabling it to track Chinese naval activities in the region…

During Minister Singh’s recent visit, India and Vietnam signed two key agreements:

The first agreement, ‘Joint Vision Statement on India-Vietnam Defence Partnership towards 2030’, casts a long-term perspective on the mutual ties.  While contents of the agreement are not available in the public domain, according to officials, it aims to “enhance the scope and scale of existing defence cooperation.”

The second agreement, an MoU, focused on mutual logistics support to enable the two countries to use each other’s military bases to repair and replenish supplies.  According to the official statement, this agreement is “the first such major agreement which Vietnam has signed with any country.”  This arrangement will mainly benefit the Indian Navy as it ramps up its profile in the Indo-Pacific.

Besides, the two countries also agreed to expedite the extension of a US$500-million Line of Credit (LoC) to Hanoi… As part of the US$ 500 million LoC, India has offered Vietnam Brahmos cruise missiles, Akash missile air defence system, Varunastra anti-submarine torpedoes, and coastal radars…

Notwithstanding the pro-China orientation of the current political leadership, a key driver of Vietnam’s military build-up is the security rivalry with China.  Beijing’s stepped-up aggression to press its territorial claims in the South China Sea dispute has been a significant irritant for Hanoi…

Vietnam has traditionally relied on Russia for its weapons.  However, given its renewed proximity with the US and the US sanctions against the Russian defence industry, Hanoi has sought to diversify its recent arms purchases…

Since the South China Sea clashes, Vietnam has boosted its defence spending, averaging US $4.8 billion between 2014 and 2018.  But, compared to the threat posed by China and its military requirements, this spending is inadequate.  Therefore, Hanoi is looking for more affordable defence suppliers with this moderate defence spending.

India can potentially be one such source.  The Indian military has the advantage of operating similar platforms to Vietnam’s.  It has leveraged this by assisting Hanoi in training and capacity building in Kilo-class submarine operations and Sukhoi-30 fighter jet training.

The unrelenting Chinese hostility in the region will ensure that India and Vietnam will continue on the path of cooperation…  However, to optimise the gains of their collaboration and contribute to regional stability, New Delhi and Hanoi will have to show tangible progress…

Image Information:

Image: Defense Minister Shri Rajnath Singh
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Defence_Minister_Shri_Rajnath_Singh.jpg
Attribution: Government Open Data License – India (GODL)

China’s Newest Aircraft Carrier Extends Capabilities With “Leapfrogged” Technology

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A J-15 carrier-based fighter aircraft is taking off from Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning (Type 001).

A J-15 carrier-based fighter aircraft is taking off from Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning (Type 001).

“…a modern navy equipped with aircraft carriers gives China a power projection capability, which was previously unavailable to them.”

In June, China officially floated its third aircraft carrier, the Fujian (Type 003) carrier, which can launch a wider variety of aircraft due to its increased size and the implementation of an electromagnetic catapult launch system (EMALS).  The two excerpted articles, published by Chinese internet technology company NetEase and Indian television broadcast network Noida News 18, provide an overview on the newly unveiled carrier and possible implications of using the groundbreaking EMALS.  The articles also highlight the emphasis the Chinese place on advancing technological developments as quickly as possible.

China’s first two aircraft carriers, the Liaoning (Type 001) and Shandong (Type 002), feature a ski jump deck, which assist jets taking off from the short runway.  The launched aircraft are restricted by size, weight, and payload.  The Liaoning is capable of operating 40 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters, while the Shandong can accommodate up to 50 J-15 fighters, an early-warning radar, and anti-submarine aircraft and various helicopters.  The Fujian is now China’s largest aircraft carrier at 80,000 tons and 318 meters.  Its size, coupled with greater capacity and the more condensed EMALS, allows it to carry more types of carrier-based aircraft than its two predecessors do.  These include the upgraded J-15, the new stealth J-35, and the recently unveiled (2020) Air Police 600—an early warning aircraft that can reportedly detect stealth aircraft from a long distance. 

Regarding the launching system, it is noteworthy that the next-step technology would have been a steam-piston driven system, which increases the launch and payload capacity from that of the ski jump.  As the NetEase authors point out, instead, China “leapfrogged” to EMALS, a technology developed by the United States.  The Chinese government, however, claims to have developed and constructed EMALS using all domestic innovation and technology.  Regardless, according to Noida News 18, China is already working on its next aircraft carrier (Type 004), which could be nuclear-powered, greatly extending the country’s long-range operational capabilities. In addition to similar observations regarding the Fujian’s technological advances, Indian observers from Noida News 18 commented that China’s aircraft carriers are not designed to be used in a conflict within the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, or Indian Ocean region.  The article argues that China has learned from the United States over the past several decades and will most likely use carriers to coerce and punish smaller powers.  Most importantly, the authors argue, they “will help China to overcome the limits of their own geography.”

Source:

Song Zhongping,“宋忠平：实现跨越式发展的中国新型航母003 (China’s New Aircraft Carrier 003 Achieves Leapfrog Development),” NetEase (a business and technology oriented Chinese website)20 June 2022. https://www.163.com/dy/article/HAACEBL40552AOD9.html

The Fujian is the first aircraft carrier to have an electromagnetic catapult launch systems (EMALS)…  Like the Shandong, the third aircraft carrier is completely developed and manufactured domestically.

The official displacement of the Fujian exceeds 80,000 tons, which is larger than both the Liaoning and Shandong ships…  The Fujian is also larger than America’s Kitty Hawk class, but smaller than the USS Ford, which has a full load displacement of 110,000 tons.

The Fujian has adopted so many innovative technologies, some of which are world-class.  For example, it is the first time a Chinese aircraft carrier uses EMALS…  The new carrier is able to house more types of carrier-based aircraft, such as the upgraded J-15 fighter and the new stealth J-35.  It will also carry the Air Police 600, a new type of early warning aircraft.

China developed its aircraft carriers for offshore operations and long-sea escort.

It should take another two years for the ship to become fully operational.

Suyash Desai, “What Does China’s New Aircraft Carrier Say About Its Technology and Strategy,” Noida News18 Online (Indian and English language news service based in Noida India.  International coverage provided by CNN while Indian and local news is a product of Indian Broadcast Network), 27 June 2022. https://www.news18.com/news/opinion/what-does-chinas-new-aircraft-carrier-say-about-its-technology-and-strategy-5447215.htmlfpo

China launched its third aircraft carrier this month.  The type 003, now named Fujian, is China’s biggest, most modern and most powerful aircraft carrier.  At 80,000 tons and 318 meters, the Fujian outstrips all but America’s supercarriers, the new USS Gerald R. Ford-class…

… Fujian is reported to have electromagnetic catapult launch systems (EMALS).  Its main advantage is that it accelerates the aircraft more smoothly, putting less stress on their airframes…  Fujian helps China catch up with the US…  However, like US carries, the Fujian will not be nuclear-powered, meaning its speed, endurance, and long-ranged operational capabilities would still be limited…

…Some authoritative Chinese reports suggest that China has already started the work for building the next aircraft carrier, Type 004, which could possibly be a nuclear-powered carrier.  However, there is no concrete evidence to support this claim.  It reportedly plans to have six aircraft carriers by 2049 to be a world-class force and become a blue water navy to protect and pursue overseas interests.China’s aircraft carriers are not designed for a Taiwan reunification campaign or to have a direct role in a conflict with big powers like the US or India in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea or Indian Ocean Region.  China is learning from the US’ use of carriers over the past several decades and is most likely to use them in coercing and punishing smaller powers in the near and far seas.  Also, a modern navy equipped with aircraft carriers gives China a power projection capability, which was previously unavailable to them.  But most importantly, the aircraft carriers will help China overcome the limits of their own geography.

Image Information:

Image: A J-15 carrier-based fighter aircraft is taking off from Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning (Type 001)
Source: Government of Japan, https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:A_PLAN_Shenyang_J-15_carrier-based_fighter_aircraft_is_taking_off_from_Chinese_aircraft_carrier_PLANS_Liaoning_%28CV-16%29_20220510.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Vietnam Trains Cambodian Navy Amid Chinese Competition

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Vietnam People's Navy honor guard at ASEAN defense ministers meeting 2010-10-12.

Vietnam People’s Navy honor guard at ASEAN defense ministers meeting 2010-10-12.

“The cooperation program in education and training between Cambodian military schools and the [Vietnamese] Naval Academy will continue to expand and develop to improve its effectiveness…”

Vietnam’s Naval Academy has trained Cambodian naval officers for years.  Recently, the Vietnamese government-affiliated People’s Army Newspaper reported that the Cambodian navy sent senior officials to Vietnam to discuss how to improve the effectiveness of the program from which thousands of Cambodians have graduated.  The article notes the Cambodian cadets receive instruction in history, tradition and naval tasks and functions, while fostering friendship and solidarity between the two neighboring countries’ navies.  The continuation of the training program comes amid greater competition from China for influence on the Cambodian navy. 

A separate article posted on the Chinese Ministry of Defense website noted that U.S. media outlets and government officials have claimed that China’s development of the Cambodian Ream Naval Base in Sihanoukville lacked transparency and was part of Chinese military strategy to create a global network of naval bases.  The Chinese Ministry of Defense, however, claims its naval cooperation with Cambodia is a normal function of international relations and consistent with international law.  The ministry also condemned any suggestion that Chinese naval activities in Cambodia pose a threat.  Rather, the Chinese claim that Ream Naval Base will improve Cambodia’s ability to protect its maritime territorial integrity and combat piracy and other maritime crimes.

Vietnam is an historical ally of Cambodia and competitor of China with maritime territorial disputes with China over islands in the South China Sea.  Therefore, Chinese presence at the Ream Naval Base, near Vietnam’s own naval base in Phú Quốc, draws Vietnam’s attention.  Given Vietnamese perception of naval competition with China, continuing to train Cambodian naval cadets is important to Vietnam as it seeks to maintain military influence in Cambodia.

Source:

“Đoàn cán bộ cấp cao Hải quân Hoàng gia Campuchia trao đổi kinh nghiệm tại Học viện Hải quân (A senior official delegation from the Royal Cambodian Navy exchanged experiences at the Naval Academy),” People’s Army Newspaper (government-affiliated media source), 27 June 2022. https://www.qdnd.vn/quoc-phong-an-ninh/tin-tuc/doan-can-bo-cap-cao-hai-quan-hoang-gia-campuchia-trao-doi-kinh-nghiem-tai-hoc-vien-hai-quan-698277

On June 27, a high-ranking delegation of the Royal Cambodian Navy led by Vice Admiral Non Sophat visited and exchanged experiences at the Naval Academy. Dr. Nguyen Van Lam, Director of the Naval Academy, introduced briefly the history, traditions, functions, tasks, achievements and development trajectory of the Naval Academy.  Simultaneously, he discussed with the delegation the situation and results of training Cambodian military cadets at the academy.  Over the years, the Naval Academy has trained and cultivated thousands of Royal Cambodian Navy officers.  Recently, despite the complicated situation of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Academy still organizes trainings for Cambodian students.

The cooperation program in education and training between Cambodian military schools and the Naval Academy will continue to expand and develop to improve its effectiveness further and contribute to fostering more friendship and solidarity between the armies, navies, and peoples of Vietnam and Cambodia to ensure peace, stability, and development of each country in the region and in the world.

Source: “国防部回应美炒作中柬合作：戴着有色眼镜 看什么都“不透明 (The Ministry of Defense responded to the United States exaggeration about China-Cambodia cooperation: Like wearing colored glasses to makes everything “blurry”),” mod.gov.cn (Chinese Ministry of Defence website), 22 June 2022. http://www.mod.gov.cn/jzhzt/2022-06/30/content_4914396.htm

Some media continue to exaggerate the normal exchanges and cooperation between China and Cambodia, which is entirely devoid of ulterior motives.  On June 8, the upgrading and reconstruction project of the Yunyang Naval Base assisted by China officially commenced.  It conforms to the domestic laws of the two countries and relevant international laws and international practices and is not targeted at a third party.  The construction of the Yunyang base is aimed at strengthening the Cambodian Navy’s ability to maintain maritime territorial integrity and combat maritime crimes.

Image Information:

Image: Vietnam People’s Navy honor guard at ASEAN defense ministers meeting 2010-10-12
Source: Master Sgt. Jerry Morrison, U.S. Air Force,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vietnam_People%27s_Navy_honor_guard_at_ASEAN_defense_ministers_meeting_2010-10-12_1.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

How China Will “Win” the War in Ukraine

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President Vladimir Putin held talks in Beijing with President of China Xi Jinping, Feb 2022.

President Vladimir Putin held talks in Beijing with President of China Xi Jinping, Feb 2022.

“China is interested in the military weakening of both Russia and the West…”

In the accompanying article from the semi-independent Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obezreniye, respected military expert Alexander Khramchikhin provides a thought-provoking assessment of how China looks at its relationship with Russia within its wider foreign policy.  The author asserts that “in economic terms, China is using Russia’s problems to the maximum extent, trying to get it to lower prices for supplied energy resources.”  The Chinese leadership understands that it cannot fully side with Russia in its war on Ukraine because “it is more important for Beijing to maintain economic relations with the West than to provide assistance to Russia.”  The author downplays the military side of the China-Russia relationship, claiming that the “measures were more of a demonstrative propagandistic nature.”  He points out that while “Beijing’s political position is no longer neutral, but pro-Russian,” it is mostly “at the level of the rhetoric of officials and China’s votes in the UN.”  Despite Beijing’s vocal support, the author points out that “China supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine, sends humanitarian aid to this country and calls for a political resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict by respecting the interests of both sides.” The author claims that “China is interested in the military weakening of both Russia and the West.”  He points out that it is to China’s advantage if the conflict is prolonged, which will lead to “maximum exhaustion of both sides.”  Such an outcome will make it easier for Chinese leaders to cut favorable political and economic deals with an “exhausted Russia.”  Similarly, an “exhausted West will lose many levers of pressure on China, which, in particular, will allow Beijing to solve the issue of joining Taiwan much easier.”

Source:

Alexander Khramchikhin, “Кому быть младшим партнером (Who will be the junior partner),” Nezasimoye Voennoye Obezreniye (semi-independent Russian media source), 23 June 2022. https://nvo.ng.ru/gpolit/2022-06-23/10_1194_partner.html

What will the Chinese choice of Russia lead to?  …The thesis that China is a true friend of Russia, ready to lend a helping hand to it in any difficult situation, is taken for granted by many citizens of our country.  Although this thesis never had almost any practical confirmation, it does not have them even now.

…In economic terms, China is using Russia’s problems to the maximum extent, trying to get it to lower prices for supplied energy resources.  At the same time, many Chinese companies de facto complied with the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the West, since it was more important for them to preserve not the Russian, but the Western markets….   This means that it is more important for Beijing to maintain economic relations with the West than to provide assistance to Russia.

In the military sphere, several major bilateral and multilateral exercises were held with the participation of the Russian Armed Forces and the PLA, as well as several joint patrols of the Russian and Chinese Air Forces near Japan.  These measures were more of a demonstrative propagandistic nature….

…The current conflict in Ukraine has actually become a continuation of the events of 2014, taking into account the general change in the situation in the world.  Today, Beijing’s political position is no longer neutral, but pro-Russian – however, again, only at the level of the rhetoric of officials and China’s votes in the UN.  At the same time, however, China stands for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, sends humanitarian aid to this country and calls for a political resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict by respecting the interests of both sides….

In the economic sphere, China is acting in exactly the same way as in 2014 and in subsequent years: it seeks to make the most of Russia’s problems, seeking to reduce prices for Russian energy resources.  At the same time, Chinese companies de facto comply with almost all new anti-Russian sanctions, since Western markets are still more important for them.  Moreover, some Chinese companies are refusing to buy Russian oil and coal even at reduced prices….

Of course, Chinese military experts will carefully study the military operations of both sides – and again draw conclusions for themselves.  China is interested in the military weakening of both Russia and the West…

Accordingly, China is not interested in either a quick victory for Russia or its defeat.  From all points of view, it is beneficial for China to prolong the conflict to the maximum and to have a compromise outcome, caused by the maximum exhaustion of both sides.  An exhausted Russia will be much more accommodating towards China on all economic and political issues.  The exhausted West will lose many levers of pressure on China, which, in particular, will allow Beijing to solve the issue of joining Taiwan much easier and easier….

…The transformation of Russia into a junior partner (if not a direct vassal) of China is possible if the war in Ukraine drags on for a long time and turns out to be, if not a failure, then generally unsuccessful for Moscow.  Such a scenario also seems unlikely so far….  The evolution of Russian-Chinese relations into a direct and open military-political alliance is possible if Russia wins a victory in Ukraine (full or partial).  At the same time, the West will continue to increase pressure on both Moscow and Beijing…. 

In any case, the current situation once again confirms that Beijing always acts solely in its own interests.  Which is absolutely right – this is how a normal country should behave.  It’s just that Chinese interests do not always coincide with ours.

China will never be our friend.  And he will extend a helping hand to us only if he receives something very significant and valuable from our hand in return.

Image Information:

Image: President Vladimir Putin held talks in Beijing with President of China Xi Jinping, Feb 2022
Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67712
Attribution: CCA 4.0 Intl

China Arming Algeria To Fight Its “New Generation Wars”

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Wing Loong II.

Wing Loong II.

“… For some time now, the leaders of the Algerian army have been constantly talking about the need to prepare for new forms of war, especially regarding virtual and electronic warfare, and the benefits of cybersecurity…”

Chinese weapons and technology continue to play a prominent role in meeting some of Algeria’s contemporary military needs, most notably unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).  Algeria operates several advanced Chinese platforms, including Wing Loong II and CH-4 drones.  Earlier this year, several media outlets reported that Algeria had placed an order for six Chinese CH-5 combat drones.  According to the Algeria-focused, military affairs website Menadefense, in late 2021 Algeria placed an order for four Chinese WJ-700 “Falcon” UAVs.  The WJ-700 is arguably China’s most capable export platform: a high-altitude, high-speed drone similar in design and performance to the MQ-9 Reaper. 

Algeria has also invested in Chinese-manufactured counter-UAV systems.  Some of these were on display at the recent armed forces’ military parade in Algiers, held on 5 July to mark the 60th anniversary of the country’s independence from France.  The parade included a recently acquired, integrated Chinese electronic warfare (EW) system that social media observers specialized in Algerian military affairs called “a CEW-03A mobile EW system,” although it has also been referred to as a LDK-190 and CHL-906 system (see “Algeria Obtains Chinese Integrated EW Reconnaissance/Jamming System,” OE Watch, Issue 2, 2022).  The Independence Day parade also featured two self-propelled Chinese radar systems—the JY-11B array radar and a DWL-002 passive detection radar.  As noted in the accompanying excerpt from the Qatar-aligned daily al-Araby al-Jadeed, Algerian military leaders have repeatedly mentioned fighting “new generation wars” as a top priority, with EW highlighted as a principal area of focus. High-tech EW platforms were not the only type of Chinese weapons on display at Algeria’s Independence Day parade.  As noted by the military news website 21st Century Asian Arms Race, marching infantry soldiers were seen carrying old Type 56 Chinese assault rifles, which the Algerian military has been producing domestically for many years.  The juxtaposition of advanced UAVs and EW systems, on the one hand, and inexpensive, outdated assault rifles on the other, may hint at the Algerian military’s priorities.  The fact that they are all of Chinese origin serves as a reminder that the evolving Chinese-Algerian military relationship is rooted in historical ties that go back decades.  Chinese technology seems likely to play an increasingly important role in helping Algerian forces prepare for the type of wars its leaders foresee across the horizon.

Sources:

“l’Algérie commande quatre drones HAL de combat à la Chine (Algeria orders four HAL combat drones from China),” MenaDefense (non-governmental website focusing on Algerian military affairs), 24 January 2022. https://www.menadefense.net/algerie/lalgerie-commande-quatre-drones-hal-de-combat-a-la-chine/

It turns out that Algeria is the mysterious customer who bought the Chinese high-altitude/high-speed WJ-700 combat drone.  The signing of the contract was announced on December 21, 2021.

Source: @nuwangzi, Twitter, 5 July 2022. #Algeria #EW First clear image of the CEW-03A in Algeria – A Chinese Mobile 6×6 truck EW system. https://twitter.com/nuwangzi/status/1544388039035723776 

Source: @kmldial70, Twitter, 4 July 2022. jy-11b radar, dwl 002 passive detection radar system, #Algerian #AirDefense #Algeria #AlgerianArmy #MilitaryParade.

Source: @kad_ghani, Twitter, 4 July 2022. Chinese CETC Self-Propelled JY-11B 3D Electronically Scanned Array Radar Hunter-1 makes his first appearance with the Algerian Army. https://twitter.com/kad_ghani/status/1544042364532129792

Source:

 ”حديث متوالٍ عن الحروب الجديدة لدى الجيش الجزائري

(Continuous talk about the Algerian army’s new wars),” al-Araby al-Jadeed (Qatari-aligned daily), 2 July 2022. https://tinyurl.com/ypp543r2

For some time now, the leaders of the Algerian army have been constantly talking about the need to prepare for new forms of war, especially regarding virtual and electronic warfare, and the benefits of cybersecurity.

Source: “Cheap Chinese Assault Rifles Are Made In Algeria,” 21st Century Asian Arms Race (military news website), 7 July 2022.  https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.com/2022/07/07/cheap-chinese-assault-rifles-are-made-in-algeria/

… during a recent military parade to mark 60 years since independence it became apparent its soldiers are issued with the most basic, even completely outdated, assault rifle supplied by China. It turns out a state-owned factory called the Mechanical Construction Establishment of Khenchela has been mass-producing Type 56 and Type 56-1 assault rifles since the 1990s.

Image Information:

Image:  Wing Loong II
Source: Photo by Mztourist, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wing_Loong_II_side_view.jpg
Attribution: CC 4.0

Taiwan’s “All-Out Defense” in Context of Aggressive PLA Exercise

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“..the structure of the manual was inspired by the examples of similar manuals used by Sweden, Japan and other countries, and integrates information from various government ministries, county and city governments, and experts and scholars.”

— Liu Taiyi [劉泰益], Director of the Material Mobilization Department of the All-Out Defense Mobilization Agency

Over the past year, Taiwan took several measures based on its “All-out Defense” strategy to improve its military readiness, including by integrating reserve forces and bolstering its ability to mobilize society. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command’s recent joint combat exercises, aggressively conducted near Taiwan, highlighted the urgency.

In late July, shortly before the PLA exercises began, Taiwan concluded its largest annual military exercise, known as Han Kuang [漢光]. Taiwanese media coverage described it as focusing on a combination of preserving combat power in the face of a simulated missile attack, and then counter attacking. Taiwan also reportedly dispatched naval forces east of the island. According to the article, Taiwan also dispersed mobile missile units across the island. Later components of the exercise involved simulated amphibious landings to retake occupied offshore islands.

In addition to the standing force, Taiwan maintains a large reserve component which is vital to the survival of the island if war broke out and a population that supports it all. In December of last year, a new agency, the All-Out Defense Mobilization Agency [全民防衛動員署] was established. In its 2021 Report on National Defense, the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense (MND) described the agency as intended to “integrate reserve and regular forces, combine reserve force with mobilization resources, and promote interagency cooperation, improving the strength of our reserve force in terms of its organization, force scale, career management, training, and equipping.”  In March, the MND adopted a new 14-day call-up system for reservists to improve skill retention for the force, and in April it issued a handbook for citizens modeled on those used by Sweden, Japan, and others. The handbook provides explanations of how to respond in a number of scenarios including air raids, power outages, earthquakes, as well as invasion. From Taiwan’s perspective, maintaining a credible deterrent will necessarily require a regime of training and doctrine for the standing force to prepare for combat operations with a quickly mobilized reserve component and supportive citizenry: an “All-out Defense.”

Sources:

“漢光38號演習登場 海陸空戰力防護保存台東亮相” (Hanguang No. 38 exercise debuts, sea, land and air combat power protection and preservation Taitung debut), CNA (Taiwanese state media), 25 July 2022. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202207250071.aspx

[Taiwan’s] Armed Forces’ 38th Han Guang military exercise deputed today. The main focus of the first day of the exercise was “protecting and preserving combat power.”

According to the military, the Taitung region air force will practice combat power preservation, while a second region will carry out a counterattack operation.  The Taitung Army regional command (Taiping Camp area) will send armored vehicles to Chihpen Beach to counterattack [against a landing].

This morning, bases on Western Taiwan simulated a missile strike.  The Air Force IDF Chingguo (FC-K1) and F-16V fighter jets sortied six times respectively. The fighter planes were loaded with weapons and landed at the Taitung Zhihang Base and entered the hardened air shelters to preserve their combat power.

Source 2:

Yu Kaixiang, “全民國防手冊範本出爐 教你如何在戰場生存”(The National Defense Handbook is a template to teach you how to survive on the battlefield), CNA (Taiwan State News Agency), 12 April 2022. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202204120102.aspx

The Ministry of National Defense announced today the ” Model National Defense Manual “, which provides emergency response information when the people face military crises and possible disasters. Other information included in the manual is intended to help people prepare for public safety emergencies. 

The Ministry of National Defense started compiling the “National Defense Manual” last year in order to strengthen the overall resilience of the population during wartime, and this morning held an online press conference to announce publication of the manual.

Liu Taiyi pointed out that the purpose of compiling the manual is to provide the public with relevant emergency response information when faced with military crises and possible disasters, so as to facilitate safety preparations and self-help for survival. For reference of the people of the age group, and design wartime scenario Q&A to guide into the live scene, separate the responsibilities of the central and local governments and the village head, and combine the actual situation of the region to allow the public to inquire about evacuation, medical care and material information.

According to Liu Taiyi, Director of the Material Mobilization Department of the All-Out Defense Mobilization Agency, the structure of the manual was inspired by the examples of similar manuals used by Sweden, Japan and other countries, and integrates information from various government ministries, county and city governments, and experts and scholars.

Source 3:

“全民國防手冊,” National Defense Handbook, Taiwan Ministry of Defense, 12 April 2022. https://www.mnd.gov.tw/NewUpload/202204/%E5%85%A8%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%89%8B%E5%86%8A(%E7%AF%84%E6%9C%AC)_534797.pdf

PLA Using Cognitive Domain Operations To Achieve Political Aims

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“[Cognitive domain operations] can… achieve the political purpose of “subduing soldiers without war” or “fight less but win all.”

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) newspaper PLA Daily recently published an article from the Academy of Military Science analyzing the concept of cognitive domain operations (CDO) in hybrid warfare.  As the Academy of Military Science is responsible for PLA doctrine, the article may provide insight into China’s doctrine on CDO.  The author proposes a new perspective of CDO in the hybrid domain.  The editor’s note prefacing the article explains that CDO is an extension of information operations, similar to how hybrid warfare is an extension of physical domain operations or traditional warfare. 

According to the article, militaries conduct CDO on three levels.  The first is “cognitive deterrence,” which entails deterring the enemy by demonstrating absolute military strength, paralyzing an enemy’s financial systems, conducting economic blockades, and imposing sanctions to deliver a psychological shock to the enemy.  The second is “cognitive shaping operations,” which entail altering the enemy’s values, political attitudes, religious beliefs, and mental state to conform to one’s objectives or cause confusion.  Finally, “cognitive deception” entails using public opinion propaganda, network attacks, and transmission of false information to influence the enemy’s decision-making in a desired direction.

The author posits that CDO can ultimately determine victory or defeat by seizing the initiative.  The author believes that CDO employing multiple means and methods—military, non-military, and specialized—can achieve decisive goals.  The author views CDO as part of the non-military methods to achieve maximum goals with minimum resources and risk.  The key components of CDO are continuous operations during peacetime and war, influencing the opponent’s cognition and disrupting its decision-making process.  The author views CDO as a full-spectrum offense and defense employing political, economic, military, diplomatic, public opinion, and other means in multiple domains during both peacetime and wartime.  While broader in scope, aspects of the PLA’s concept of cognitive warfare resemble the more focused Russian concept of reflexive control developed during the Soviet era.  Reflexive control seeks to insert targeted messaging into an opponent’s collection, analysis, and decision-making process to shape the enemy’s cognition and cause them to act in a desired manner.

Source:

“混合战争视野下的认知域作战 (Cognitive Domain Operations from the Perspective of Hybrid Warfare),” PLA Daily (newspaper of the People’s Liberation Army), 6 June 2022. http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2022-06/07/content_317171.htm

Through the practice of several local wars in recent years, it has been found that hybrid warfare can be regarded as an extension of traditional physical domain operations to a certain extent, while cognitive domain operations can be regarded as a further extension of previous information domain operations. In other words, both hybrid warfare and cognitive domain operations were born out of yesterday’s traditional warfare, and the two are closely related and have different emphases. How to grasp the new characteristics and new laws of cognitive domain operations from the perspective of hybrid warfare is a new perspective for advancing the research on cognitive domain operations.

“On the surface, current cognitive domain operations mainly act on people’s perception, feeling, emotion, morale, thinking, judgment, spirit, belief, and other areas. However, at the practical level, cognitive domain operations are often a full-scale attack and defense in the multi-dimensional field by using political, economic, military, diplomatic, public opinion, and other comprehensive means. If the physical domain operation is the premise and foundation to eliminate the enemy’s effective forces, and the information domain operation is the means and support to win victory in war, then the cognitive domain operation is the key to ultimately determine the victory or defeat of the war, force the enemy to yield, and achieve the war’s objective.

…Cognitive domain operations in the perspective of hybrid war start from the conscious level as the principal part of war to act directly on people’s will, belief, thinking, and psychology, etc., and [aim to] achieve the intended goals such as psychological attack, value shaping, cognitive influence, and mental control by maintaining one’s own cognitive advantages and attacking the enemy’s cognitive disadvantages.  Specifically, it can destroy the fighting will of the enemy’s officers and soldiers through cognitive attacks on them; Through the cognitive control of the enemy’s leadership, the purpose of influencing the decision-making and judgment of the enemy’s leaders can be achieved. Through the cognitive shaping of the enemy people, we can achieve the purpose of interfering with the enemy people’s recognition of the value of the country and the government, and finally achieve the political purpose of “subduing soldiers without war” or “fight less but win all”.

Cognitive domain warfare methods and means are mixed and diverse

Cognitive domain operations from the perspective of hybrid warfare, the multi-dimensionality of the space domain and the diversity of participating forces have spawned innovative improvements and enriched development of cognitive domain combat tactics.

In recent local wars, some foreign military combat methods and means in the cognitive domain have also shown a new trend of mixing and diversifying.

One is cognitive deterrence. By demonstrating absolute military strength, paralyzing the financial system, carrying out economic blockades, and imposing trade sanctions, the enemy is given psychological and spiritual shock and deterrence, so as to achieve the combat purpose of making the enemy cowardly, yield and retreat. Another example is to broadcast to the enemy a video of its advanced weapons and equipment accurately destroying the enemy’s important targets, causing it to have a psychological shadow, so as to actively give up resistance, etc.

The second is cognitive shaping operations. Through the induction and agitation of the enemy’s values, political attitudes, religious beliefs, mental states and other ideological fields, gradually make them abandon or form a new specific concept, cause value confusion, shake their will to fight, and thus affect their war. Attitude, etc.

The third is cognitive deception. Through public opinion propaganda, network attacks, thinking induction and other means, false information is transmitted to the enemy, thereby affecting its decision-making and judgment. For example, virtual reality and intelligent audio-visual synthesis technology are used to simulate the commander’s order, making it difficult to distinguish the true and false of the enemy, thereby causing confusion in the enemy’s command, disorder in actions, and failure of combat operations.”