Tag Archives: China

China Rehearsing Possible Taiwan Decapitation Operation

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Taipei Taiwan Presidential Office Building

“In the past, the PLA had created a Presidential Office Building replica in another location. However, he said this mockup covered much of the Bo’ai Special Zone and appears to be an aerial bombing and gunnery training range.”

China is expanding its capability to train for a decapitation operation against Taiwan. On 26 March, Joseph Wen, a Taiwanese defense analyst, posted satellite images of a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) training ground in southwest Inner Mongolia. The images appear to show a mockup of the Bo’ai Special Zone, a restricted area that houses key government buildings, including the Presidential Office Building in Taipei. The first excerpted article, taken from the popular Taiwan English news source Taiwan News, highlights some of the concerns and speculation resulting from the images. For example, it explains that while this is not the first time the PLA has created a replica of Taiwan’s Presidential Office Building, this mockup is different in that it “covered much of the Bo’ai Special Zone and appears to be an aerial bombing and gunnery training range,” which indicates where China is likely to be focused. Lu Te-yun, a satellite imagery expert, explains that “visually speaking, the degree of realism in comparison with the actual location is quite high.” However, some experts, such as a former Kuomintang legislator cited in the article, believe the PLA would be unable to swiftly launch a decapitation strike. Instead, he believes, the exercise is more likely part of psychological and cognitive warfare effort to pressure Taiwan into believing that it must negotiate.[i] As seen in the second excerpted article, taken from an editorial published in Taiwan’s English-language newspaper Taipei Times, the PLA has repeatedly held other military exercises at its Zhurihe Training Base,[ii] also located in Inner Mongolia, during which they used a scale replica of the Presidential Office Building to simulate a decapitation strike. Published one month after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the article explains that the media had been predicting a potential “decapitation strike” from Moscow. The author, Yao Chung-yuan, former deputy director of the Taiwan Ministry of National defense strategic planning department goes on to stress the importance of Taiwan preparing for such an event. Today, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict drags on with no victory in sight for Moscow, China could be placing more urgency into honing its own capabilities to prevent a protracted conflict should it one day invade Taiwan.

Sources:

Keoni Everington, “China Creates Taipei Mockup to Train for Invasion,” Taiwan News (popular online English-language news source in Taiwan), 28 March 2024. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5131830

Joseph Wen …posted satellite images of a mockup of the Bo’ai Special Zone (博愛特區), which is a restricted zone in Taipei’s Zhongzheng District where the Presidential Office Building and other key government buildings are situated. The training ground is located in the Alxa Left Banner administrative division of Alxa League in the southwest of China’s Inner Mongolia.

Wen said in the past, the PLA had created a Presidential Office Building replica in another location. However, he said this mockup covered much of the Bo’ai Special Zone and appears to be an aerial bombing and gunnery training range.

Lu Te-yun (盧德允), a satellite imagery expert who once served as an inspector for the Ministry of National Defense (MND) told UDN that the proportions of the training grounds need to be measured. However, Lu said that “visually speaking, the degree of realism in comparison with the actual location is quite high.”

On the TVBS program “Situation Room” on Wednesday, former Kuomintang (KMT) Legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁方) said that given Taiwan’s extensive air defenses, it is unlikely that the PLA could swiftly launch a decapitation strike on Taipei. Lin said, “This is psychological and cognitive warfare. China will not relax and will continue to put pressure on Taiwan, telling Taiwan that it can negotiate or fight, simultaneously employing a dual strategy of negotiation and confrontation.”

Yao Chung-yuan, “Prepare for ‘Decapitation’ Attempts,” Taipei Times (Taiwan’s English-language daily newspaper), 28 March 2022. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2022/03/28/2003775565

At the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the media predicted a potential “decapitation strike” from Moscow. An in-depth discussion of the issue seems necessary in Taiwan.

There are many ways of launching a decapitation strike, which seeks to assassinate a national leader. ….

Despite Russia’s failure to kill Zelenskiy, Ukraine must remain extremely vigilant.

“Decapitation” is a military term for the use of ballistic and precision-guided missiles to assassinate a national leader or destroy a presidential office, to demoralize and severely weaken an enemy.

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has repeatedly held military exercises at its Zhurihe Training Base in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, during which it used a scale replica of the Presidential Office Building in Taipei to simulate a decapitation strike…

The purpose of Russia’s supposed decapitation attempts was to hijack Zelenskiy, not assassinate him, but as tension mounts during a continued war, whether Russia attempts other decapitation methods is a possibility. In Taiwan’s 2020 Han Kuang exercises, the military simulated strikes against PLA and Chinese secret agents targeting the Presidential Office Building and other central government agencies in Taipei’s Boai Special Zone (博愛特區), while training for countermeasures against the CCP’s hijacking of the Taiwanese president. From the situation in the Russia-Ukraine war, the scenario set in the Han Kuang military drill is not impossible.

Notes:

[i] For more on this, see: Cindy Hurst, “Chinese Cognitive Operations Might Impact Taiwan’s Will to Resist,” OE Watch, 09-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/chinese-cognitive-operations-might-impact-taiwans-will-to-resist/

[ii] Zhurihe is the PLA’s largest military training base. For more information, see: Chen Zhuo, “8 Things to Know About China’s Biggest Army Training Base,” South China Morning Post and reposted to China Military, 13 May 2019. http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/CHINA_209163/Features_209191/9501757.html

Image Information:

Image: Taipei Taiwan Presidential Office Building
Source: CEphoto, Uwe Aranas, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Taipei_Taiwan_Presidential-Office-Building-01a.jpg
Attribution:

India’s Plan To Counter China and Sustain Maritime Sphere of Influence

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The Indian Navy has been deployed in in the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Gulf of Aden, but the former is increasingly seeing competition with China.

“Modi government’s strategy [is] to use [Indian] island territories to project power in the Indo-Pacific in support of maritime security of the region.”

As China seeks to gain more prominence in the Indian Ocean, India is pushing back with a number of its own efforts to sustain its sphere of influence. According to the excerpted article from the Indian nationalist publication Hindustan Times, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh recently announced the inauguration of naval bases, which will be on islands in the Indian territory of the Lakshadweep archipelago, near the states of the Maldives and Sri Lanka. The article describes the bases as a “game-changer” and notes how they are part of a broader strategy of the Modi administration to project power into the Indo-Pacific. Specifically, according to the article, India seeks to counter the Chinese Navy and make it “think twice” about hostile actions towards India.

India considers China’s “String of Pearls” strategy in the Indian Ocean as an attempt to encircle and contain India, including with Chinese naval bases in Cambodia, Sri Lanka, [i] and Pakistan and a port in Myanmar, which can be converted to a base in the future. China can use naval bases to monitor India’s Navy and naval training exercises and, in the event of war, strike Indian ships capable of firing nuclear weapons, which would limit India’s nuclear deterrent.[ii] China claims that India is exaggerating the threat from China and is interfering in the sovereignty of India’s neighbors in the Indian Ocean, such as Sri Lanka and the Maldives, by pressuring them to disallow even Chinese “scientific research vessels”[iii] to dock at their ports.[iv] However, India disregards China’s claims. Rather, to meet the threat India perceives from China, the least India can do is to increase own naval bases to match, if not necessarily even exceed, the Chinese port and base presence in the Indian Ocean. India considers the Indian Ocean its own sphere of influence and is, therefore, building up its naval infrastructure to meet its security needs.

Sources:

“India to build naval bases in Agatti and Minicoy Islands,” Hindustan Times (Delhi-based weekly covering issues in India and around the world from nationalist angles),14 January 2024. hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-to-build-naval-bases-in-agatti-and-minicoy-islands-101707884042309.html

After Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Lakshadweep, India has decided to firmly extend its naval footprint by establishing naval bases in Agatti and Minicoy Islands along with air bases in order to secure the vital sea lanes of communication.

This decision dovetails into Modi government’s strategy to use its islands territories to project power in the Indo-Pacific in support of maritime security of the region. The geographical location of Lakshadweep and Minicoy Islands and the Andamans and Nicobar Islands is such that India can safeguard the maritime trade routes while countering the challenge of rapidly expanding Chinese Navy and their supplicants in the Indian Ocean…. Such level of force projection has never been seen in the past and will make the adversary [China] and its supplicants think twice before playing mischief in the Indian Ocean region.

Notes:

[i] An overlooked reason why China has gained increasing influence in Sri Lanka is that India’s domestic Tamil population has exerted pressure on India’s government to pressure the Sri Lankan government on treating Tamil civilians better during the civil war and in Sri Lanka. Although India did not directly intervene, it “warned” Sri Lanka about its human rights conduct, while the U.S suspended aid to Sri Lanka for its human rights violations. China, in contrast, took advantage of the situation to offer crucial aid, armaments, and diplomatic support to the Sri Lankan government without any criticism of its human rights record. See A. Jathindra, “Revisiting Sri Lanka’s Foreign Policy Balance under the Shadow of the Space Dragon,” Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, July-August 2023. https://media.defense.gov/2023/Jul/28/2003270082/-1/-1/1/JATHINDRA_COMMENTARY.PDF

[ii] See, for example, Firstpost.com, “’String of Pearls’: How China-made Kyaukphyu Port in Myanmar threatens India’s nuclear attack submarine base,” 8 January 2024, https://www.firstpost.com/world/string-of-pearls-how-china-made-kyaukphyu-port-in-myanmar-threatens-indias-nuclear-attack-submarine-base-13588512.html.

[iii] The Washington D.C-based think tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), from 2020 to 2024, 64 Chinese “oceanographic missions” using “research vessels” were observed from satellite imagery, and 80% of them “demonstrated suspect behavior or possessed organizational links suggesting their involvement in advancing Beijing’s geopolitical agenda.” Indis would, therefore, rightly be suspicious of their activities in the Indian Ocean. See “China’s Research Vessels Carry Out Covert Missions for PLA,” The Maritime Executive, 14 January 2024. https://maritime-executive.com/article/study-china-s-research-vessels-carry-out-covert-missions-for-pla

[iv] See, for example, “印度海军潜艇到访斯里兰卡，印媒炒作“击败中国 (Indian navy submarine visits Sri Lanka, and Indian media exaggerates defeating China),” guancha.cn (privately owned Chinese-language website with nationalist tendencies), 5 February 2024. https://www.guancha.cn/internation/2024_02_05_724626.shtml

Image: The Indian Navy has been deployed in in the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Gulf of Aden, but the former is increasingly seeing competition with China
Source: Government of India https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Indian_Navy_QRT_deployed_in_North,_Central_Arabian_Sea_and_Gulf_of_Aden.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula Names New Leader

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Sana’a, capitol of Yemen at Night.

“Despite its decline in the Arabian Peninsula, [AQAP] remains the most effective terrorist group in Yemen, with the intent to launch attacks in the region and beyond.”

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) named a successor after the recent loss of its leader. According to the first excerpted article from the Saudi state-owned international news outlet Al Arabiya, Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki, aka “Abu al-Laith,” a Yemeni national, has been named the new leader of AQAP. The organization’s official, Ibrahim al-Qusi, confirmed in a broadcast recording that the group’s former leader had been killed, declaring that “Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki is the new leader of the organization in the Arabian Peninsula.”[i] The new AQAP leader, Al-Awlaki, reportedly had direct ties to former al-Qaeda leader Usama bin Laden and was repatriated to Yemen by Bin Laden. Al-Awlaki is reported to also have originated from the same tribe as former al-Qaeda spiritual leader Anwar al-Awlaki, who was killed in 2011. There is a $6 million reward from the U.S. State Department for information about the new AQAP leader, who has “publicly called for attacks on the U.S. and its allies.” The U.S. has designated AQAP as a Foreign Terrorist Organization since 2010.[ii]

The second excerpted article from the Jeddah-based Saudi daily newspaper Okaz, provides some perspective on the current status of AQAP, as well as the potential effect of Al-Awlaki as the group’s new leader. The article notes that the al-Qaeda affiliate has struggled for a multitude of reasons, including the loss of several key leaders, financial challenges, and internal disputes that have led to structural issues. The article also states that Al-Awlaki could be a unifier for AQAP due to his extensive background in the terrorist network, experience in the al-Qaeda leadership council, and previous position as Emir in the Shabwa Province. While there has been a shift in the West to focus on great power competition with China and Russia, and persistent challenges from Iran, the ongoing threat from international terrorist organizations cannot be discounted, especially with new leaders who have openly called for attacks against the United States.[iii]

Sources:

“سعد العولقي.. من هو زعيم “القاعدة” الجديد في اليمن؟  (Saad Al-Awlaki… Who is the New Leader of Al Qaeda in Yemen),” Al Arabiya (Saudi state-owned news outlet), 11 March 2024. https://www.alarabiya.net/arab-and-world/yemen/2024/03/11/بعد-الاعلان-عن-مقتل-زعيم-تنظيم-القاعدة-من-هو-خليفته؟

Al-Qaeda in Yemen confirmed the killing of its leader, Khaled Batarfi, without going into details, announcing that his new successor is Saad Al-Awlaki. The SITE Center, which monitors terrorist media, stated that the organization’s legal official, Ibrahim al-Qusi, confirmed in a recording broadcast yesterday, Sunday, the killing of Batarfi, the organization’s leader since February 2020, declaring that “Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki is the new leader of the organization in the Arabian Peninsula.” , which the United States classifies as a terrorist…

Saad bin Atef Al-Awlaki, nicknamed “Abu Al-Laith,”… is of Yemeni nationality, and media reports indicate that he is one of those who was repatriated from Afghanistan to Yemen by the former leader of Al-Qaeda, who was killed by America in 2011, Osama bin Laden. Thus, Al-Awlaki becomes the fifth leader to publicly lead Al-Qaeda in Yemen, after working for years as the extremist organization’s second-in-command in the country.

Saad Al-Awlaki was born in the town of Al-Shu’bah in Wadi Yasbam in the Upper Egypt District in Shabwa Governorate (south). He comes from the large Al-Awalqi tribe, the same tribe from which the spiritual father of Al-Qaeda, Anwar Al-Awlaki, who was killed by an American drone in 2011, descends.

Mohamed Hefney, “خبير مصري لـ عكاظ: الخلافات تفكك تنظيم القاعدة الإرهابي في اليمن (An Egyptian expert to Okaz: Disagreements are Disintegrating the Al-Qaeda Terrorist Organization in Yemen),” Okaz (Saudi based newspaper), 13 March 2024. https://www.okaz.com.sa/news/politics/2157390

Fears are escalating within Al-Qaeda, after the killing of its fourth leader in Yemen, Khalid Batarfi, nicknamed “Abu al-Miqdad al-Kindi,” and the appointment of his successor, Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki, nicknamed “Abu al-Layth,” who the US administration classified in 2021 as a global terrorist, and offered a reward of $6. Millions of dollars in exchange for providing information about him.

Dr. Nabil Naeem, believes that Al-Awlaki is known for his extreme hostility toward America, and like all of his predecessors, he called for the necessity of launching attacks on the United States of America, which prompted the American administration to allocate a large financial reward to anyone who provides information about him. He stressed that Al-Qaeda in general, whether in Yemen or elsewhere, has become weak and fragile and is witnessing a major liquidation of its leaders, whether in Yemen or other countries in the region. It is not the organization that existed 20 years ago. The new leader of Al-Qaeda in Yemen faces grave challenges and priorities, including how to preserve his life and the lives of his followers from the expected physical liquidation. The Yemeni organization also faces challenges at the financial and structural levels, as the financial level is very weak. Structural level: There is a state of splits and divisions within the organization left behind by the former leader of the organization, which indicates that his death was under the direction of those close to him. Therefore, we do not rule out that the new leadership will seek to bring the terrorist organization together.Al-Awlaki is considered one of the founding leaders of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and he served as a member of the leadership council of Al-Qaeda. He was born in the 1980s. He joined the organization in 2010, and assumed the position of Emir of Shabwa Province until 2014, then he was appointed a member of the organization’s Shura Council, which is responsible for Managing operations, and he was called the second man in Al-Qaeda in Yemen.

Notes:

[i] Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was initially created in 2009 after the Saudi and Yemeni branches merged forces. The group is currently assessed to be one of the most lethal al-Qaeda affiliates. The Council on Foreign Relations published a backgrounder on AQAP, see: “Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP),” Council on Foreign Relations, 19 June 2015. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/al-qaeda-arabian-peninsula-aqap

[ii] For a complete list of designated terrorist organizations by the United States Government see: “Foreign Terrorist Organizations,” U.S. Department of State, Accessed 12 March 2024. https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/

[iii] The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community further notes that, “Al-Qaeda’s regional affiliates on the African continent and Yemen will sustain the global network as the group maintains its strategic intent to target the United States and U.S. citizens.” The entirety of the most recent unclassified annual threat assessment issued by the United States Intelligence Community can be located here: “Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community,” Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 5 February 2024. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf

Image Information:

Image: Sana’a, capitol of Yemen at Night.
Source: https://openverse.org/image/c4b13d0f-5ffa-44fc-9a82-518d08dbfbc0?q=yemen Attribution: CC BY-SA 2.0

China’s Initiates Push To Establish a Military Base in Gabon

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The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation has become a core component of China’s promoting its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

“[Transitional President of Gabon] Nguema’s regime may not be transparent and may allow China to establish a permanent [naval] presence in Gabon.”

Gabon has become a key nation for China to expand its political, economic and, increasingly, military influence in Africa. Not only has China become Gabon’s primary trading partner, the two countries also upgraded their relations to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership when their foreign ministers met in Beijing last October.[i] Questions remain about whether China will develop naval bases or station troops in Gabon under Gabon’s new leadership, which came to power two months before the foreign ministers’ landmark meeting.

On 13 February, the Taiwanese newspaper Shijie Ribao, published the excerpted article on Bejing’s efforts to station troops in Gabon under the country’s former president, Ali Bongo. Had President Bongo not been overthrown by his own presidential guard in August 2023, China may have already been on the path to meeting that goal.[ii] Gabon could, therefore, have become the first country to provide China access to sought-after Atlantic Ocean naval bases.[iii]

The article also claims that although President Bongo’s successor, General Brice Oligui Nguema, states he will not allow any Chinese bases in Gabon, he may eventually prove unable or unwilling to resist Chinese pressure. Gabon is a uniquely oil-rich country, which, in addition to its strategic location, could make it more attractive for China to assert its influence beyond its geopolitical position. China has already built base and port infrastructure in East Africa, such as its naval base in Djibouti. However, stationing troops in West Africa has remained elusive. Should a Chinese naval base be built in Gabon, it would represent a victory for China’s global Belt and Road Initiative.[iv]

Sources:

“美中非洲角力 传北京拟于加蓬驻军未果 (U.S.-China rivalry over Africa: Beijing plans to station troops in Gabon but fails),” worldjournal.com (Largest Chinese-language newspaper in the U.S, which is moderately critical of the Chinese Communist Party), 13 February 2024. https://www.worldjournal.com/wj/story/121480/7767824?zh-cn

Bongo, the former president of Gabon, revealed he promised Beijing to station its troops [in Gabon], but Bongo was later overthrown by his own presidential guard.

According to the Chinese government, Chinese companies have constructed around 100 commercial ports in Africa since 2000, from Mauritania on the western end of Africa to Kenya on the Indian Ocean coast. But there is currently only one African port that has been built as a permanent base that can dock Chinese ships and troops. This was built by the People’s Liberation Army in Djibouti seven years ago. Aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines can dock at this Chinese base.Even though Nguema states that he understands the U.S.’s concerns, senior U.S. officials also expressed concerns that Nguema’s regime may not be transparent and may allow China to establish a permanent presence in Gabon.

Notes:

[i] Fmprc.gov.cn, “Wang Yi Meets with Gabonese Foreign Minister Hermann Immongault,” October 7, 2023, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202307/t20230725_11117519.html#:~:text=In%20April%20this%20year%2C%20President,the%20development%20of%20bilateral%20relations.

[ii] The overthrow of Ali Bongo on 30 August 2023 was related to the overthrow only five weeks earlier of Niger’s president Mohamed Bazoum by his own military entourage. Ali Bongo had been officially declared the winner of Gabon’s presidential election for his third term in office. However, a group of military officers, who were influenced by the events in Niger and were displeased with Ali Bongo’s attempt to continue his tenure as Gabon’s leader, announced his removal from office, arrested him, and suspended the constitution. Besides Niger, Guinea (September 2021), Mali (August 2020 and May 2021), Burkina Faso (January 2022) had also underwent coups before Gabon’s, which made attempting a coup in Gabon more palatable in the region, and especially among other post-coup countries. See “Question Time: Situation in west and central Africa in the light of the recent coups d’état,” European Parliament, Plenary—September 2023. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2023/751465/EPRS_ATA(2023)751465_EN.pdf

[iii] On Beijing’s plans to establish a naval base in Gabon, see North Africa Post, “Ousted Ali Bongo nodded to establishment of Chinese military base despite concerns of France, U.S.A.,” September 8, 2023, https://northafricapost.com/71098-ousted-ali-bongo-nodded-to-establishment-of-chinese-military-base-despite-concerns-of-france-u-s-a.html

[iv] For more information on the BRI’s previous expansion, see Les Grau, “China Belt and Road Initiative Test on Trans-Eurasian Rail,” OE Watch, September 2020. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/360893

Image Information:

Image: The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation has become a core component of China’s promoting its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Source: Stephen Walli https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Forum_on_China-Africa_Cooperation.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

China Accuses United States of Being Largest Proliferator of Space Militarization

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Long March 5 Y7 Carrier Rocket Launch Preparation on 23 February 2024.

“The United States uses the so-called threats from other countries as an excuse to expand its military power. China is firmly opposed to this.”

China is downplaying U.S. concerns over Beijing’s intentions in the space domain, and instead, claiming that the U.S. is the state most responsible for the militarization of space. The first excerpted article from Chinese state-owned media outlet The Paper, reported that General Stephen Whiting, Commander of the United States Space Force, expressed strong concerns about China’s rapid development of space military capabilities, describing China as a “major threat” in the space domain and the pace of development as “alarming.”[i] The second excerpt from China’s Ministry of Defense offers China’s official response. Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, criticized the U.S. for using “so-called threats” from other countries as excuses to expand its own military power in space. Zhang also accused the U.S. as the biggest promoter of space militarization, while firmly asserting that China insists on the peaceful use of space, opposes a space arms race, and urges the U.S. to cease spreading false statements and to refrain from expanding its arms and war preparations in space. Chinese rhetoric of peaceful space development follows the release of the 2023 “Blue Book” by China’s Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation. The document declares China’s plans to conduct a record-breaking 100 launch missions in 2024, including 70 space mission launches, involving 290 spacecraft, and a series of major carrier rocket tests.[ii] China sent an experimental communication satellite into space on 23 February 2024. The launch marks the eleventh satellite launched by China under a classified military program, with no additional details publicly disclosed by state media, except that the satellite will primarily be used for “multi-band and high-speed communication technology experiments.”[iii] In the past six months, China has launched more than 15 Yaogan reconnaissance satellites, primarily to support the People’s Liberation Army’s Strategic Support Force.[iv] The Yaogan-41, launched on 20 December 2023, involved a military geostationary earth observation/signals intelligence satellite that provides unprecedented capabilities for tracking and identifying U.S. and allied movements in the Indo-Pacific region.[v]

Sources:

Yan Shanshan, “美高官：在这一领域，中国正以惊人速度发展 (US senior official: In this field, China is developing at astonishing speed),” The Paper (official Chinese site), 03 March 2024. https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_26540782

Stephen Whiting, commander of the US Space Command, testifies to the US SASC that China has “dramatically improved its ability to monitor, track and target US and allied forces on Earth and in orbit.” The top commander declared space as a “expanding security challenge”, with China and Russia identified as the main competitors. Space is now deemed the “core of security activities in all fields,” and China is committed to making progress in satellite meteorology, manned spaceflights, robotic space explorations, and the ability to track and target US and allied forces. Furthermore, General Whiting said that China “will reach world-class levels in all fields except a few areas of space technology by 2030.”

Ye Mengyuan, “美国是太空军事化战场化的最大推手” (The United States is the biggest promoter of militarization of space),” China Ministry of National Defense (Ministry of National Defense Website), 29 February 2024. http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/qwfb/16289660.htmlSenior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, deputy director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense and spokesperson of the Ministry of National Defense, responded to a reporter’s question regarding China’s comments on the United States strategic competition in space, long range missiles, and anti-satellite weapons. Senior Colonel Zhang rebuffed the United States as having defined space as “combat territory” and developing and deploying offensive space weapons, organizing military offensive and defensive exercises and technological experiments, and maliciously tracking and dangerously approaching other countries’ spacecraft which creates risk of collision. He states that the United States is the biggest promoter of the militarization of space and the biggest threat to space security. Furthermore, he claims that China always insisted on the peaceful use of space, opposes a space arms race, and is actively promoting the building of community for mankind. He urges the United States to stop spreading false statements, stop expanding its arms and war preparation in space, and prevent damaging global strategic security and stability.

Notes:

[i] In his testimony, General Whiting identified both China and Russia as significant space competitors. He urgently raises the need for the U.S. to expand its military power, as well as to sustain and improve its capabilities and strength in the space field to maintain its competitive advantage. Wu Zhichao, “国防部：美国是太空军事化战场化的最大推手 (Ministry of Defense: America is Space Militarization’s Biggest Driver),” The Paper, 29 February 2024. https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_26506145

[ii] Feng Hu, “2024年预计实施100次发射！中国航天科技活动蓝皮书发布 (An Estimated 100 Launches Will Be Carried Out in 2024! China’s Aerospace Science and Technology Activities Released Blue Book),” China Economic Daily, 26 February 2024. http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/202402/26/t20240226_38912226.shtml

[iii] Ryan Woo, “China Launches Classified Communication Satellite with Powerful Rocket,” Reuters, 23 February 2024. https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-classified-communication-satellite-with-powerful-rocket-2024-02-23/

[iv] To obtain a list of Chinese satellites and their purpose description, see NASA Space Science Data Coordinated Archive, NASA, 28 March 2024. https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/query

[v] Clayton Swope, “No Place to Hide: A Look into China’s Geosynchronous Surveillance Capabilities,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 19 January 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/no-place-hide-look-chinas-geosynchronous-surveillance-capabilities

Image Information:

Image: Long March 5 Y7 Carrier Rocket Launch Preparation on 23 February 2024.
Source:  
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

New Details Emerge About China’s H-20 Stealth Bomber

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The cover of the June 2021 issue of the Chinese military magazine “Modern Weaponry” features an artist’s rendition of a next-generation bomber.

“Since 2016, details regarding the H-20 have been largely withheld from the public. However, a few small details have gradually emerged.”

Although China announced the development of its first dedicated strategic stealth bomber, the H-20, in 2016, many details surrounding the aircraft remain a mystery. However, according to the first excerpted article posted on the publicly owned Chinese Internet Platform Tencent, Deputy Commander of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, Lieutenant General Wang Wei, stated that the H-20 is “almost here.” This statement was provided at the conclusion of the second session of the 14th National People’s Congress in Beijing. Despite external skepticism of the H-20’s development and progress, Wei stated that the H-20 currently has not encountered any technological bottlenecks.[i] Wei also noted that after test flights, the H-20 can very quickly enter mass production. When asked how the new H-20 would compare to the United States capabilities (presumably, the B-21 bomber), Wei replied that it is not a matter of comparison between China and the United States. Rather it is a matter to “protect our own security.” [ii] The second excerpt published by the majority Chinese state-owned television network, Ifeng, suggests that the unveiling of the new H-20 will send two significant messages to the outside world. First, the H-20 will elevate China into the top ranks of the world’s air powers. Second, the H-20 will serve as an effective deterrent against external forces infringing upon China’s national sovereignty and airspace. The source also suggests that the H-20 will enable China to break through the first, and potentially the second, island chain that surrounds the country, thus expanding its strategic space.[iii] Furthermore, the source suggests that the H-20 will “shock” the forces of Taiwan and constrain their strategic intentions, with the author referring to Taiwan simply as ‘the island.’[iv]

Sources:

Yanbingchang, “时隔8年再获官方确认，空军副司令员“剧透”轰-20：快了，你们等着吧 (After an Official Confirmation Following an Eight Year Hiatus, the Air Force Deputy Commander ‘Spoiled’ the H-20: It’s Almost Here, Just Wait for It),” Tencent (a major Chinese platform company that connects users, businesses, and industries with technology and innovation), 11 March 2024. https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240311A04C1F00

After the conclusion of the second session of the 14th National People’s Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, a reporter from the Hong Kong Commercial Daily asked Lieutenant General Wang Wei, Deputy Commander of the Chinese Air Force, a series of questions regarding China’s new and upcoming strategic stealth bomber, the H-20. Lieutenant General Wang Wei stated that the H-20 will soon be announced to the public and emphasized that production of the plane would proceed ‘very fast’ following test flights.

The development of the H-20 was publicly revealed in 2016, and details of the aircraft have not been made public since then. There were suspicions that China may have encountered technical bottlenecks during its development. However, Lieutenant General Wang Wei categorically denied this in the interview, stating that there were no such bottlenecks.

Military experts estimate that the H-20 boasts a range of approximately 13,000 kilometers, a combat radius of around 5,000 kilometers, and a bomb load ranging from 30 to 40 tons. Such capabilities would render the H-20 five times more effective than China’s current most advanced bomber, the H-6K, and enable it to fly directly to the United States.

Since 2016, details regarding the H-20 have been largely withheld from the public. However, a few small details have gradually emerged. In a 2018 episode by the CCTV Documentary Channel, it was stated that significant progress had been made in the development of the H-20. Additionally, in 2021, a promotional video commemorating the tenth anniversary of the J-20 [R1] ‘s maiden flight, released by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, showcased an aircraft featuring a flying wing design. Similarly, an Air Force recruitment video from the same year revealed a winged aircraft being unveiled, as seen through the reflection of a pilot’s visor. Lastly, at the conclusion of a CCTV program on military technology, viewers were shown an image of an object draped with a curtain, its outline strongly resembling a flying wing layout without vertical tail fins, reminiscent of the design of the B-2 [R2] or B-21 bomber.

Nanyouhui, “轰20将亮相，向外传递两大信号 (The Unveiling of the H-20 will Send Two Messages to the Outside World),” ifeng.com (a majority state-owned television network), 12 March 2024. https://news.ifeng.com/c/8XtHAuKtOs5

The statements from Deputy Commander Wang Wei regarding the H-20 development send two signals to the outside world. Firstly, they suggest that China is on track to possess a stealth strategic bomber comparable to those of the US Air Force. American experts speculate that the H-20 developed by China may be akin to the B-2 stealth bomber, boasting a range of more than 8,500 kilometers and capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons. The emergence of the H-20 is poised to rival the American B-2 and position China among the world’s leading air force powers.

Secondly, the H-20 is expected to significantly enhance the deterrence capability of the Chinese Air Force. In light of efforts by the United States to contain China’s rise, including the construction of first and second island chains aimed at restricting China’s access to the Pacific, the H-20 represents a strategic asset. With its potential capability to penetrate these containment barriers, the H-20 will serve as a potent deterrent against foreign forces.The development of the H-20 is not intended to compete against the United States or pursue world hegemony. Rather, it represents a strategic breakthrough for China, expanding its strategic capabilities. Importantly, once the H-20 is operational, it will significantly impact forces positioned on ‘the island’—a reference to territories dependent on American military presence for defense against mainland China. China has consistently demonstrated restraint and tolerance, and the deployment of the H-20 will serve as a deterrent, influencing the intentions of these forces.

Notes:

[i] Daqiqi, “台媒, 轰-20迟迟没有露面, 是因为研发出了问题, 要走的路还很长! (According to Taiwan Media, H-20 Bomber Has Not Appeared for a Long Time Because It Encountered Development Problems, There Still is a Long Way To Go!),” NetEase (a leading Chinese internet and gaming provider centered around premium content), 08 December 2023.  https://www.163.com/dy/article/ILEICUTM05534DZW.html

[ii] To watch the full interview with Lieutenant General Wang Wei, see Hong Kong Commercial Daily’s Weibo video post on 11 March 2024, Weibo (biggest social media platform in China), 11 March 2023. https://weibo.com/hkcdCN?layerid=5010657889487439

[iii] Mark Carlin, “China’s New H-20 Stealth Bomber Is a Giant Question Mark”, National Interest, 15 November 2023.https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-new-h-20-stealth-bomber-giant-question-mark-207290

[iv]Peter Suciu, “China’s B-21 Raider: The Xi’an H-20 Stealth Bomber is Coming Soon”, National Interest, 12 March 2024. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-b-21-raider-xian-h-20-stealth-bomber-coming-soon-209973

Image Information:

Image: The cover of the June 2021 issue of the Chinese military magazine “Modern Weaponry” features an artist’s rendition of a next-generation bomber.
Source: https://www.zazhipu.com/magnews228725.html
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

China’s Strategic Bomber Puts United States and Allies Within Range

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Artist’s rendering of what China’s H-20 strategic bomber could look like.

“When commissioned, the H-20 will become a new quality combat force, serve as a powerful strategic deterrent and contribute to the safeguard of [Chinese] national sovereignty, security, and development interests, as well as peace and stability in the region and around the world.”

Eight years after its initial announcement, China’s new long-range bomber, the H-20, is about to be realized.[i] The H-20 is planned to replace China’s most advanced current bomber, the H-6K. According to the first excerpted article from the Chinese Communist Party affiliated Global Times, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) commander Wang Wei announced that the project was moving forward with no “bottlenecks” and all issues resolved. The H-20 will be a significant step up from the H-6K [R1] in both range and payload. When commissioned, the H-20 will use stealth technologies to avoid detection and will be able to launch a variety of weapons with both conventional and nuclear payloads. The second excerpted article from a Chinese news source. NetEase, describes the H-20’s utility and assesses the need for a stealth bomber. Notably, the article suggests that the H-20 will have a range up to 10,000 kilometers, giving it the ability to strike intercontinental military targets. An additional, though contradictory, statement from the PLAAF notes that the H-20 boasts a range of 8,500 kilometers with a payload of at least 10 metric tons.[ii] Should the H-20 live up to expectations, the H-20 will give China the ability to strike the United States, Australia, and other Pacific allies while remaining entirely undetected.

Sources:

Liu Xuanzun, “China’s in-development H-20 bomber worth the excitement: PLA Air Force deputy commander,” Global Times (English language newspaper affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party), 11 March 2024. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202403/1308604.shtml

China’s long awaited first strategic stealth bomber, the H-20, is worth the excitement, as it faces no technical difficulties in development and will be unveiled to the public soon, said the deputy commander of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force at the two sessions in Beijing.

The H-6 series, which is China’s current main combat bomber that has served for decades, is a medium-range subsonic platform without stealth capability, so despite many upgrades and modernization, the aircraft itself cannot penetrate modern air defense, and relies on launching standoff munitions to attack targets, said experts reached by the Global Times.

A next generation stealth bomber, capable of avoiding hostile detection, will enable the launch of more powerful or more cost-efficient munitions at closer range in larger numbers, experts said.

When commissioned, the H-20 will become a new quality combat force, serve as a powerful strategic deterrent and contribute to the safeguard of national sovereignty, security and development interests, as well as peace and stability in the region and around the world

Yangmen Bojin, “轰20航程或超预期！中国用一流反隐身能力铸剑，美应抓紧撤往东太 (The range of the H-20 may exceed expectations! China uses first-class anti-stealth capabilities to forge swords, the United States should hurry up and withdraw to the East Pacific),” NetEase (Chinese news site), 15 March 2024. https://m.163.com/dy/article_cambrian/ITAHENIN0553AA62.html

“The H-6 series bombers have serious shortcomings in terms of stealth, speed, and bomb load. In this context, it is very necessary to develop a new strategic bomber. H-20’ bomber’s range is expected to be at least 8,000 kilometers, with a maximum range of more than 10,000 kilometers.”

“The distance from our country to San Francisco is about 9,600 kilometers. If the ‘H-20’ bomber has a range of more than 10,000 kilometers, it can only reach Alaska and some islands in the Pacific, as well as the U.S. deployment bases in Australia.”“It should be pointed out that the reason why my country’s H-20 bomber has not reviled is likely due to it being continuously upgraded. For stealth bombers, the most fatal problem is that the stealth capabilities is seen by the other party. Once the stealth advantage is lost, the stealth bomber is not even comparable to a conventional bomber.

Notes:

[i]Zhao Lei, “PLA Air Force commander confirms new strategic bomber,” China Daily, 2 September 2016. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2016-09/02/content_26683883.htm

[ii]Liam Gibson, “US Air Force secretary says new planes must intimidate China,” Taiwan News, 5 December 2021. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4365995

Image Information:

Image: Artist’s rendering of what China’s H-20 strategic bomber could look like.
Source: https://desarrollodefensaytecnologiabelica.blogspot.com/2020/05/china-presentara-el-bombardero-sigiloso.html
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

 

China’s Utilization of Domestic Information Operations Tactics

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Models of rockets of JAXA, are shown at the Mitsubishi Minatomirai Industrial Museum. Following the launch of one such rocket, CHN has undertaken information operations to achieve its own goals.

“The development of rocket-themed merchandise and culinary offerings has not only diversified Tanegashima’s economy but has also enriched its cultural landscape… “Specialty foods, rocket-themed rice wine, and more have gained popularity among tourists.”

In an effort to advance its goals, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) uses comprehensive information operations (IO) to influence and shape the global information landscape. The first excerpted article from the official CCP news outlet Xinhua demonstrates a nuanced tactic of CCP’s domestic IO—”喧宾夺主” (“the tail is wagging the dog”). On 17 February 2024, Japan’s flagship H3 space rocket, jointly developed by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, successfully deployed two small observation satellites into orbit from the Tanegashima Space Center. While the global media predominantly highlighted JAXA’s breakthrough and Japan’s manufacturing competitiveness, Xinhua’s coverage of the event focused on local Japanese infrastructure and tourism, with the economic revitalization of the Japanese Tanegashima Island taking the center stage. By doing so, the CCP not only obscured the intensified competition in the space race, but also promoted a narrative of fostering a global community united by a shared pursuit of economic growth. The CCP consistently develops nuanced IO tactics targeting the Chinese people during domestic peacetime, distinct from tactics used to aggressively handle domestic upheavals such as the Hong Kong protests and the COVID-19 pandemic. Central to these efforts is portraying China positively as a peaceful and prosperous nation.[i] Overall, the CCP’s approach to global influence carries significant implications for U.S. strategies aimed at countering China’s full-spectrum IO campaign.

Sources:

Guang Yang and Anzheng Li, “在日本种子岛感受火箭经济 (Experience the “Rocket Economy” in Tanegashima, Japan),” Xinhua (official Chinese Communist Party news outlet), 19 February 2024. http://www.news.cn/world/20240219/79f2ea64434e49b6bc512c4f7f80298a/c.html

Japan’s recent launch of the H3 rocket from the Tanegashima Space Center in Kagoshima Prefecture, has not only marked a significant milestone in space exploration but has also underscored the burgeoning “rocket economy” transforming the socioeconomic landscape of Tanegashima Island. This report delves into the multifaceted impacts of the rocket industry on Tanegashima, examining its influence on local infrastructure, tourism, economic diversification, and cultural identity…

Situated in the southern part of Kagoshima Prefecture, Tanegashima has experienced a gradual decline in population over recent decades. The emerging of the “rocket economy” has catalyzed economic and social benefits. Economically, investments in infrastructure, satellite research, manufacturing, and space education have bolstered local revenues and generated employment opportunities. For instance, data from the Japan Economic Research Institute reveals a significant increase in revenue and job creation attributed to direct orders from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and the influx of tourists and business visitors during rocket launch events. Moreover, the social benefits extend beyond economic gains, encompassing talent development, academic research, and regional image enhancement. Tanegashima’s identity as a “rocket launch island” has garnered widespread recognition, with space-themed attractions, such as the Emi Noe Observation Park, contributing to the island’s allure among tourists and enthusiasts. The influx of visitors from across Japan underscores the island’s newfound prominence as a premier destination for space enthusiasts. Furthermore, the development of rocket-themed merchandise and culinary offerings has not only diversified Tanegashima’s economy but has also enriched its cultural landscape. Souvenirs like rocket-shaped keychains and space-themed delicacies reflect the fusion of space exploration with local traditions, captivating visitors and fostering a sense of pride among residents.Japan’s H3 rocket launch not only symbolizes advancements in space technology but also serves as a catalyst for socioeconomic development on Tanegashima Island. The convergence of economic opportunities, cultural enrichment, and community engagement underscores the transformative impact of the “rocket economy” on the local landscape. By embracing its newfound identity as a nexus of space exploration, Tanegashima stands poised to chart a course toward a prosperous and vibrant future.

Notes:

[i] According to a Freedom House report, the CCP is likely to intensify censorship efforts and fortify against the infiltration of Western ideals while launching cognitive warfare to spread authoritarianism in developing countries. See: Sarah Cook, Angeli Datt, Ellie Young, and BC Han, “Beijing’s Global Media Influence: Authoritarian Expansion and the Power of Democratic Resilience,” Freedom House, September 2022. https://freedomhouse.org/report/beijing-global-media-influence/2022/authoritarian-expansion-power-democratic-resilience

Image: Models of rockets of JAXA, are shown at the Mitsubishi Minatomirai Industrial Museum. Following the launch of one such rocket, CHN has undertaken information operations to achieve its own goals.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Models_of_rockets_of_JAXA,_at_the_Mitsubishi_Minatomirai_Industrial_Museum.jpg
Attribution: Brakeet, CC0 1.0

The Philippines Plans Purchase of First Submarines To Counter China

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China’s maritime claim (red), compared to other countries. The Philippines has recently expressed interest in procuring submarines to protect itself against Chinese maritime aggression.

“China is willing to resolve differences with the Philippines through bilateral dialogue and consultation, but if the Philippines insists on going its own way, China will resolutely counterattack.”

The Philippines recently announced its plans to acquire submarines. According to Japan-based weekly news magazine, Nikkei Asia, the plan is the third part of a three-phase military modernization strategy and indicates the Philippines is “taking a more assertive approach to defending its interests beyond its borders.” The first and second phases were focused on bolstering the Philippines’ “land-centric” assets.[i] It is unknown where the Philippines will acquire its submarines but, according to the first article, “Spain, South Korea and Italy have shown an interest in supplying it with submarines.”

While the exact number of submarines the Philippines plans to purchase is unknown, the second excerpted article, published in the pro-independence, Taiwan newspaper, Liberty Times, suggests that one submarine is not enough. Ian Story, a senior researcher from ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore argues that the Philippines should purchase three so that one can be operational while another is in training and the last one undergoing maintenance. He also estimates that it could take more than 10 years to acquire and integrate submarines into Philippines’ military capabilities. While other experts agreed with three submarines being an ideal number to start, Joshua Bernard Espeña, vice president of the Philippine think tank International Development and Security Cooperation argued that two to three submarines would not be enough to deter China because China’s southern theater could deploy more than 30 diesel-electric submarines in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, in response to these plans, Chinese state-controlled Xinhuanet went on the offensive, saying that while buying a submarine was the Philippines’ own business, China will not tolerate anything that infringes on its sovereignty “and undermines regional peace and stability.” According to Chinese Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Colonel Wu Qian, the Philippines has already “betrayed its trust, colluded with major powers outside the region, and continued to engage in malicious activities in the South China Sea.” He went on to warn that China will counterattack if the Philippines “insists on going its own way.” However, he did not offer any specifics as to steps China might take.

Sources:

Ramon Royandoyan, “Philippines ‘Breaking From Its Shell’ With Submarine Purchase,” Nikkei Asia (major Japan-based English-language weekly news magazine), 2 February 2024. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/Philippines-breaking-from-its-shell-with-submarine-purchase

The Philippines’ plan to buy its first submarine marks a step toward the Southeast Asian nation taking a more assertive approach to defending its interests beyond its borders, analysts say.

On Thursday, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. approved the planned submarine purchase, which is included in the third phase of the military’s modernization strategy….The first and second phases of the military modernization plan focused on bolstering “land-centric” defense assets. Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr. said acquisitions under the third phase will focus on stepping up capabilities in domain awareness, intelligence and deterrence in maritime and aerial spaces.

The moves will prepare the Philippines “for future warfare of multi-domain attacks,” (Chester) Cabalza (founder of International Development and Security Cooperation, a think tank in Manila) added. In December, Manila installed Japan-made radar at an airbase some 300 kilometers from the Scarborough Shoal, the site of recent incidents involving China.

Friction between Beijing and Manila has escalated in recent months, as the Philippines Coast Guard accused a Chinese ship of using water cannons and deliberately ramming maritime vessels to disrupt the Philippines’ resupply missions to its outpost within the disputed waters.

The Philippine Navy on Thursday said France, Spain, South Korea and Italy have shown interest in supplying it with submarines.

Sun Yuqing, “菲律賓擬採購潛艦 專家：至少需要3艘才能嚇阻中國 (The Philippines Plans to Purchase Submarines. Experts: At Least Three Submarines Needed to Deter China,” Ziyou Shibao (also known as Liberty Times, a highly influential, pro-independence, Taiwan newspaper), 19 February 2024. https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/4583036

The report pointed out that in recent months, tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea have intensified, with military and police officers from both sides having numerous confrontations, and both sides later accusing the other of inciting conflicts. This prompted the Philippine government to decide to promote the modernization of the military. One of the measures is to purchase submarines.

Roy Trinidad, spokesman for the Philippine Navy’s West Philippine Sea Affairs, did not disclose how many submarines Manila plans to purchase, but he said “it will definitely be more than one.”

Ian Story, a senior researcher at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute) in Singapore Storey said that if one submarine is to be put into service at any time, Manila will need to purchase at least three. He explained that “3 is a magic number” that applies to all types of military equipment, one is operating, one is training, and one is being modified or maintained. For example, Vietnam has 6 submarines, which ensures that at least 2 are operational at any time.

However, since Manila has never operated a submarine, the process of acquiring and integrating the submarines will take at least 10 years, including the construction of infrastructure such as bases, docks, dry docks, and other support services. He added that if the Philippines orders two to three submarines, they will not be able to operate effectively until at least the mid-2030s.

However, Joshua Bernard Espeña, vice president of the Philippine think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, believes that 2 to 3 submarines are not enough to deter China, because China’s southern theater may deploy more than 30 diesel-electric submarines in the South China Sea. Power submarine.

“马科斯批准军队建设计划，包括购买菲律宾第一艘潜艇 (Marcos approves military construction plan, including purchase of Philippines’ first submarine),” Xinhuanet (Chinese state-controlled newspaper), 2 February 2024. http://www.news.cn/mil/2024-02/02/c_1212332825.htm

According to previous media reports, the Chief of Staff of the Philippine Armed Forces recently stated that the Philippines plans to develop islands and reefs in the South China Sea and purchase more ships and radars. Some analysts believe that the Philippines also intends to build outposts in the South China Sea.

In this regard, Colonel Wu Qian, spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, said on January 25 that whether or not to buy a ship is the Philippines’ own business, but China will never allow anything that infringes on China’s sovereignty and security and undermines regional peace and stability.Wu Qian said that China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands and their adjacent waters, which has sufficient historical and legal basis. China firmly opposes any form of construction activities carried out by the Philippines on the illegally occupied islands and reefs of China’s Nansha Islands. The current difficulties facing China-Philippines relations lie in the fact that the Philippines has betrayed its trust, colluded with major powers outside the region, and continued to engage in malicious activities in the South China Sea. Infringement and provocation harm China’s legitimate rights and interests. We ask the Philippines to respect history, recognize reality, and not go down the wrong path. Wu to resolve differences with the Philippines through bilateral dialogue and consultation, but if the Philippines insists on going its own way, China will resolutely counterattack.

Notes:

[i] The country’s plan to introduce submarines to its defense forces, comes in the wake of escalating tensions between Beijing and Manila with the Philippine Coast Guard accusing a Chinese ship of “using water cannons and deliberately ramming maritime vessels” on resupply missions to Philippine outposts within the disputed waters. Over the past months, China has been putting mounting pressure on the Philippines in the South China Sea. In one example of aggression in the South China Sea, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel used a water cannon to redirect an unarmed Philippines Navy supply ship near the Second Thomas Shoal. Despite an international court saying both the shoal and surrounding waters belong to the Philippines, China claims it all owns the area. For more information, see: Carla Freeman et al, “China, Philippines Tensions Risk Wider Conflict that Could Draw in the U.S., United States Institute of Peace, 10 August 2023. https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/08/china-philippines-tensions-risk-wider-conflict-could-draw-us. See also Dodge Billingsley, “China And Philippines Spar Over Grounded Ship In Spratly Islands,” OE Watch, 08-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/china-and-philippines-spar-over-grounded-ship-in-spratly-islands/

Image Information:

Image: China’s maritime claim (red), compared to other countries. The Philippines has recently expressed interest in procuring submarines to protect itself against Chinese maritime aggression.
Source: Goran Tek-en, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:South_China_Sea_vector.svg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0

China Reinvigorates Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia

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Kyrgyz Highway A363 towards Chinese border-Xinjiang.

“China firmly supports Uzbekistan in safeguarding its national sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity, and firmly supports Uzbekistan in choosing its own development path.”

China seeks to strengthen its security cooperation with Central Asian countries to safeguard its core interests in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). According to the first excerpted article from the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, People’s Daily, Chinese President Xi Jinping met his Uzbek counterpart, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in Beijing and pledged an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” with Uzbekistan. This places Uzbekistan at the highest ranking of China’s foreign relations alongside Pakistan, Belarus, and Venezuela. These elevated diplomatic ties not only pave the way for the advancement of strategic BRI projects but also signal to the BRI stakeholders the urgency of security cooperation in the current turbulent international environment.

To this end, Mirziyoyev places significant emphasis on the One-China principle and strictly opposes external interference in China’s internal affairs, especially with regard to Beijing’s crackdown on Uyghurs in Xinjiang Province in the name of deradicalization. Xinjiang is home to the Muslim Uyghur minority and borders the former Soviet states of Central Asia, serving as the geopolitical linchpin in the success of the rejuvenation of the Silk Road. Mirziyoyev firmly supports China stabilizing Xinjiang by taking repressive­­ measures to eradicate extremism, terrorism, and separatism. This state visit indicates a growing China-Central Asia alliance in security cooperation and soft power development. The day before Mirziyoyev’s visit, China’s State Council Information Office released a whitepaper, cited in the second excerpted article. This white paper articulates the legal basis for countering “The Three Evils,”[i] operation and supervision mechanisms, and China’s vision of security cooperation on a regional and global scale.[ii] With the growing “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” in the region, Beijing is undertaking a more direct engagement in Central Asia’s security and defense capabilities. Overall, China’s multifaceted BRI strategies are likely to intensify the growing Great Power competition in the region.

Sources:

Yijun Yang, “习近平同乌兹别克斯坦总统米尔济约耶夫会谈 (Xi Jinping holds talks with President Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan),” People’s Daily (official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee), 25 January 2024. http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2024-01/25/nw.D110000renmrb_20240125_1-01.htm

On January 24, President Xi Jinping hosted President Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan at the Great Hall of the People. The two heads of state announced that China and Uzbekistan have decided to develop an all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership, symbolizing an era of a more meaningful and dynamic China-Uzbekistan relationship.

Facing the current complex international situation, the two sides pledged to build a solid foundation for mutual trust and continue with high-quality joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China firmly supports Uzbekistan in safeguarding its national sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity, and firmly supports Uzbekistan in choosing its own development path.

Mirziyoyev said that he looks forward to the opportunity to further consolidate and deepen mutual trust and expand all-round cooperation under the BRI, including agriculture, green energy, and tourism. Uzbekistan firmly abides by the One-China principle, resolutely opposes external forces interfering in China’s internal affairs, and is willing to firmly support China on issues involving Taiwan, Xinjiang, human rights, and other matters related to China’s core interests. Furthermore, Uzbekistan is ready to work with China to combat the “Three Evilsand safeguard their respective and regional security.

“中国的反恐怖主义法律制度体系与实践 (China’s Legal Framework and Measures for Counterterrorism),” The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China, 23 January 2024. http://english.scio.gov.cn/whitepapers/2024-01/23/content_116958678.htm

Terrorism poses a persistent and asymmetric threat to international peace and security. China has found a path of law-based counterterrorism that conforms to its realities by establishing a sound legal framework, promoting strict, impartial, procedure-based law enforcement, and ensuring impartial administration of justice and effective protection of human rights…

Relying on more than 40 years of experience, China has gradually developed a counterterrorism legal framework based on the Constitution. The Counterterrorism Law, in concert with the criminal laws and National Security Law, covers administrative regulations, judicial interpretations, local regulations, and departmental and local government rules…Upholding the vision of a global community of shared future, China is willing to work closely with other countries to push forward counterterrorism cause as part of global governance. On the basis of equality and respect, China will engage in extensive exchanges, cooperation, and mutual learning to facilitate the global effort to counter terrorism.

Notes:

[i] The “Three Evils” (三股恶势力) is a political slogan referencing extremism, terrorism, and separatism.

[ii] Released by China’s State Council Information Office, the white paper consists of chapters such as “An Improving Legal Framework for Counterterrorism,” “Clear Provisions for the Determination and Punishment of Terrorist Activities,” “Standardized Exercise of Power in Fighting Terrorism,” “Protection of Human Rights in Counterterrorism Practices,” and “Effective Protection of People’s Safety and National Security.”

Image Information:

Image: Kyrgyz Highway A363 towards Chinese border-Xinjiang.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kyrgyzstan_(6052094329).jpg
Attribution: CC BY 2.0