Tag Archives: China

Armenia Hints It May Withdraw From Russia-Backed Regional Security Bloc

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Monastery Valley in Armenia

“Armenia will refrain from joining the CSTO Collective Security Council resolution of November 23, 2023 on the CSTO budget for 2024 and from participating in financing the organization’s activity envisaged by this resolution. However, it will not object to adopting this resolution in a curtailed format.”

Armenia recently announced it will no longer pay its dues to the Collective Security Treaty Organizations (CSTO), a Moscow-led security organization comprised of countries from Central Asia and the South Caucasus. According to the first excerpted piece from the Russian state news agency, TASS, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told his countrymen that they can no longer rely on the CSTO and he had no answer to how Yerevan benefits from being a member. The move comes as relations between Yerevan and Moscow have cooled, particularly after a series of clashes over the disputed Nagorno Karabakh region, , last September with neighboring Azerbaijan resulted in the mass expulsion of the enclave’s Armenian population.

Pashinyan, who did not attend the CSTO’s last summit in Minsk in 2023, had hinted that Armenia plans to suspend its participation in the security bloc. Critics of the CSTO claim it is a tool for Moscow to wield military power over former Soviet-bloc countries. The last time CSTO forces were called in to preserve the peace came in January 2022, when roughly 2,500 CSTO peacekeepers – the bulk of them Russian – responded to anti-government rioting in Kazakhstan. But Pashinyan has criticized the alliance for not supporting Armenia during its various clashes with Azerbaijan,accusing Russian peacekeepers of abandoning their positions when Azerbaijani troops crossed into Nagorno-Karabakh.[i] According to the second excerpted article from Armenian TV and radio service Azatutyun, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that Armenia is free to withdraw from the organization.[ii]  If Armenia does leave the CSTO, the move could signal a major realignment of the regional balance of power in the Caucasus, as Russia, preoccupied by the war in Ukraine, looks to keep a military presence in the region. Armenia recently held joint drills with the United States, has sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and has expressed interest in one day joining the European Union. If the CSTO were to lose Armenia or other members, it could weaken Russia’s military leverage in the South Caucasus. Alternatively, it could make other regional security blocs like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which also comprises China, more relevant and powerful.

Sources:

Source:  “Armenia to refrain from financing CSTO activity in 2024,” (“Армения воздержится от финансирования деятельности ОДКБ в 2024 году,” TASS (Russian state news agency), 8 May 2024. https://tass.com/world/1785765

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said earlier that his country cannot rely on the CSTO and he cannot answer Armenian society’s question why the country should be its member. In recent time, Yerevan has skipped numerous meeting in a range of integration formats. Thus, Pashinyan did not attend the CSTO summit in Minsk in 2023 and announced that Armenia had suspended its participation in this organization.

CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov told TASS on April 22 that it was a matter of “an independent and sovereign country” to decide whether to take part in the upcoming CSTO summit or not. However, he said that he hoped that many might change for the better before the summit.

Source:  “Armenia Free To Leave Russian-Led Bloc, Says Moscow,” (Армения свободна выйти из возглавляемого Россией блока, заявила Москва), Azatutyun (Armenian TV and Radio service affiliated with U.S. funded RFE/RL) 3 May 2024. https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32932373.html#

“We still do not question the sovereign right of our Armenian partners to independently determine their foreign policy course, including in the context of the further work of the organization,” the ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova told a news briefing in Moscow.

“Let me remind you that Article 19 of the [CSTO} Charter establishes the possibility of leaving the alliance,” Zakharova said. “In that case, a member state … must send an official notification no later than six months before the withdrawal date.”

The Armenian government, she said, has taken no steps in that direction so far despite its “constantly circulated accusations against the organization.” This means that Armenia remains for now a full-fledged member of the Russian-led military alliance and must “must fulfill appropriate obligations,” added Zakharova. She did not specify those obligations.Over the past year or so, Yerevan has boycotted high-level meetings, military exercises and other activities of the CSTO in what Pashinian described in February as an effective suspension of Armenia’s CSTO membership. The premier repeatedly said afterwards that he could pull his country out of the alliance of six ex-Soviet states altogether.

Notes:

[i] “Armenian PM Attacks Russian-Led Alliance At Summit In Yerevan,” RFE/RL, 24 November 2022. https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-csto-pashinian-criticism/32145663.html

[ii] During a recent visit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Pashinyan struck an agreement for Russian border guards to withdraw from along the Armenia-Azerbaijani border. See: Gabriel Gavin, “Russia to withdraw troops from Armenia’s border,” Politico.eu, 9 May 2024. https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-to-withdraw-troops-from-armenias-border/

Image Information:

Image: Monastery Valley in Armenia
Source: Unsplash, https://unsplash.com/photos/aerial-photo-of-a-village-during-daytime-VQ07UveM3-U
Attribution: Free to use under the Unsplash License

Peru’s Stance On Megaport Is a Test of China’s Influence

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“Now the National Port Authority is trying to rescind the exclusivity, claiming it made a mistake…The Chinese company, however, remains firm and even hints that it could withdraw if it does not obtain exclusive access.”

China’s megaport in Chancay, Peru, just north of Lima, is set to be inaugurated by Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year during the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference. One of the largest deep-water ports of its kind, Chancay represents one of China’s most ambitious projects in South America. Built by state-owned enterprise Cosco Shipping, Chancay is meant to catalyze the China’s food security and dominance over critical minerals, while cutting shipping times to Asia by around one week. However, according to Argentine media outlet Infobae, Peruvian officials have announced an “administrative error” permitting Cosco Shipping to both build and operate the port exclusively.[i] According to the article, Peruvian regulators have rejected Cosco’s exclusivity, declaring it incompatible with having built the port under domestic law.[ii] As per the second excerpted article from Infobae, Cosco has said it will initiate legal action against Peruvian regulators, insisting on its economic model of exclusivity. The fallout from the Port of Chancay legal wrangling is notable, and likely to have a lasting impact. China sees the moment as precedent-setting for other countries with Chinese state-owned enterprises controlling key infrastructure projects, while Peru finds itself in a major bind after years of burgeoning Chinese influence over strategic sectors in the country. If Cosco manages to win exclusive control of Chancay, China will further solidify its control over strategic infrastructure in the Western Hemisphere; if Peru manages to safeguard its autonomy, it may furnish a blueprint for other regional powers willing to test the limits of China’s infrastructure ownership models.

Sources:

Source: “El ‘error administrativo’ que pone en jaque al Perú: dio el control total a China del Megapuerto de Chancay (The ‘administrative error’ that puts Peru in check: it gave China full control of the Chancay Megaport),” Infobae (an Argentine outlet with excellent regional coverage), 14 May 2024. https://www.infobae.com/peru/2024/05/14/el-error-administrativo-que-pone-en-jaque-al-peru-dio-el-control-total-a-china-del-megapuerto-de-chancay/  

With a projected investment of more than three billion, China is now bringing out its true intentions and at the same time taking advantage of an ‘administrative error’ on the part of Peruvian officials by granting operational exclusivity to Cosco, which has put the project in check…a situation that the National Port Authority of Peru is currently trying to solve…The Peruvian government assumed that the Chinese shipping giant would simply use the port of which it will be the majority owner and would not have exclusive rights over it. But during the negotiations, Cosco somehow obtained precisely these rights. Now the National Port Authority is trying to rescind the exclusivity, claiming it made a mistake…The Chinese company, however, remains firm and even hints that it could withdraw if it does not obtain exclusive access.

Source: “Megapuerto de Chancay: Cosco Shipping no da su brazo a torcer y anuncia sus acciones legales por conflicto con el Estado peruano (Chancay Megaport: Cosco Shipping does not give in and announces its legal actions due to conflict with the Peruvian State),” Infobae (an Argentine outlet with excellent regional coverage), 8 May 2024. https://www.infobae.com/peru/2024/05/07/megapuerto-de-chancay-consorcio-chino-no-dara-su-brazo-a-torcer-y-anuncia-sus-acciones-legales-por-conflicto-con-el-estado-peruano/  Through a statement, the Chinese consortium Cosco Shipping Ports Chancay Peru SA, in charge of the megaproject, recognized that the port infrastructure work in the country has been ‘seriously harmed’ by a change in the regulatory scheme…the company reported that they have found it necessary to initiate legal actions to defend its operating model and ensure its classification as private infrastructure, despite the public benefits it offers.

Notes:

[i] At an earlier period, U.S. officials warned Peru about China exerting control and exclusivity over Chancay. See: Michael Stott and Joe Daniels, “U.S. Raises Concern with Peru over Chinese Control of Infrastructure,” Financial Times, 3 October 2023. https://www.ft.com/content/2c77be69-60d7-4d5c-a0c6-c7978bde3888

[ii] According to noted analyst Elisabeth Braw, this situation is likely the result of Peru failing to read the fine print of the agreement. See: Elisabeth Braw, “Peru Learns to Read the Fine Print in China Deals,” Foreign Policy, 13 May 2024. https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/13/peru-learns-to-read-the-fine-print-in-china-deals/

Potential Flashpoint Stemming From Undersea Data Cable Network Access Restrictions

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Underwater fiber optic cable on the ocean floor

China has arisen as an economic superpower rivaling the U.S. and now consumes large amounts of data… [however] China’s presence in subsea cable networks is fading rapidly.”

The United States is working with global technology companies, and regional neighbors, to actively exclude China from future undersea cable networks that will connect the region to the rest of the world according to the excerpted article from Japan-based Nikkei news agency. Subsea cables form the backbone of the exchange of global information, carrying 99% of the world’s data traffic—including information considered important to national security. While the Nikkei article doesn’t delve into the geopolitical concerns between the United States and China, the move to restrict the flow of data available to China via these undersea cables, should be seen as a mechanism to isolate China. China, which was once expected to be the future hub for subsea networks that form vital arteries of international communication, is on schedule to receive only three cables laid after this year. All three to Hong Kong, which was relatively more independent when the contracts to lay those undersea cables were struck. By comparison, in the next few years an additional 11 cables are scheduled to be laid in the region: four cables to Japan and seven to Singapore. According to a researcher interviewed for the article, the moves to isolate China from the conduit that carries global information is manifestation of a “subsea cold war” going on between the United States and its partners and China.[i] The U.S. process to isolate China began in 2020 when the Trump administration, “adopted The Clean Network initiative[ii] to freeze Chinese businesses out of telecom infrastructure projects.” This initiative has continued under the Biden administration, citing the “need to ensure data security.”[iii] The article notes that with the decrease in this important data conduit, the share of data centers in China will stay stagnant or begin to recede as well, while increasing in other Asian countries such as Japan, Philippines, and Southeast Asia. This hi-tech form of economic blockade will be a risk to China as its technology prowess begins to lag behind its regional competitors. These second and third order of effects make the subsea cable issue another potential flashpoint between U.S. – China relations, which given the numerous flashpoints between the two super powers, could result in additional tension and possible military action.[iv]

Sources:

Kentaro Takeda, “More subsea cables bypass China as Sino-U.S. tensions grow,” Nikkei, 11 May 2024. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/More-subsea-cables-bypass-China-as-Sino-U.S.-tensions-grow?utm_campaign=IC_asia_daily_free&utm_medium=email&utm_source=NA_newsletter&utm_content=article_link&del_type=1&pub_date=20240513123000&seq_num=3&si=91811959-21c4-44f4-9028-13136a8d0104

Growing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China have begun to affect the flow of global data due to an expected sharp fall in new undersea cables linking China with the rest of the world…

China is expected to see only three cables laid after this year — fewer than half the number planned for Singapore. The lack of undersea projects is also expected to weigh on the construction of data centers in the country.

Subsea cables form the backbone of the internet, carrying 99% of the world’s data traffic. Roughly 140,000 kilometers of such cables will be completed this year, three times more than five years ago… The increase reflects growing demand for data traffic prompted by the spread of video streaming and cloud services.

On April 10, Google announced a $1 billion project to build two submarine cables to connect Japan, Guam and Hawaii…The leaders said in a joint statement that they welcomed the investment “to improve digital communications infrastructure between the United States, Japan and Pacific Island Nations.”

Behind this seemingly coordinated public-private initiative was “the subsea cold war” between the U.S. and China, said TeleGeography’s research director, Alan Mauldin.

China has arisen as an economic superpower rivaling the U.S. and now consumes large amounts of data. Fifteen 1,000-km-plus submarine cables, all put into use since 1994, link China and the rest of the world….

The tide began to change around 2020, when the U.S., led by then-President Donald Trump, adopted the Clean Network initiative to freeze Chinese businesses out of telecom infrastructure projects. The U.S. has since kept this tough stance against Beijing, citing the need to ensure data security…

China’s presence in subsea cable networks is fading rapidly. Three international cables to connect Hong Kong are due for completion in 2025, but no undersea projects are scheduled for the country thereafter. There are plans to lay four cables to Japan and seven to Singapore after 2024. In addition, nine cables will be laid to Guam, midway between the U.S. mainland and Southeast Asia.Subsea cables and call centers are two pillars of digital infrastructure that move large amounts of data. Their presence could determine the power and influence of host countries and the businesses operating within them.

Notes:

[i] See: “US-China tech war’s new battleground: undersea internet cables,” South China Morning Post,” 14 December 2019. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3042058/us-china-tech-wars-new-battleground-undersea-internet-cables

[ii] For more information on The Clean Network, see U.S. Department of State summary. https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-clean-network/

[iii] In 2021 Google and Facebook announced they had halted efforts to lay undersea cable connecting California and Hong Kong due to U.S.-China tension. See: “Google, Facebook unveil new Asia undersea data cable plan linking Singapore, Japan, others,” South China Morning Post, 16 August 2021. https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3145253/google-facebook-unveil-new-asia-undersea-data-cable-plan?campaign=3145253&module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article

[iv] The gradual restricting of subsea cables to China is occurring at the same time that the U.S. officials are warning that existing subsea cables could be sabotaged or tampered with by Chinese maintenance vessels contracted to maintain existing subsea cables. See: “U.S. Fears Undersea Cables Are Vulnerable to Espionage From Chinese Repair Ships,” The Wall Street Journal, 19 May 2024. https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/china-internet-cables-repair-ships-93fd6320

Image Information:
Image: Underwater fiber optic cable on the ocean floor
Source: https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/article/protecting-submarine-cables-enhanced-connectivity-subsea/155612/
Attribution: CC by 4.0

China Introduces People’s Liberation Army-Information Support Force

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“The Information Support Force is a newly created strategic force and a key support for coordinating the construction and application of network information systems. It plays an important role and has a major responsibility in promoting the high-quality development of the army and winning modern wars.”

On 19 April, the Chinese Communist Party joined the Central Military Commission to unveil the new People’s Liberation Army-Information Support Force (PLA-ISF), a strategic arm of the PLA responsible for overseeing the development and application of the network information system. The PLA-ISF appears to have replaced the PLA Strategic Support Force, which was responsible for strategic missions including space-based intelligence, reconnaissance, electronic countermeasures, signals intelligence, information warfare, and communications.[i] The role and responsibilities of the PLA-ISF are expected to be much broader and will integrate artificial intelligence into military operations.

While there are still few specifics available about the PLA-ISF, the first article, published in one of Asia’s largest English-language pan-Asia digital news platforms, Asia Times, opines that the aim of the PLA-ISF is to “better integrate emerging AI, Quantum, and other technologies into multi-domain operational concept against the United States and its allies.” The author argues that this new development underscores the importance to the PLA of shifting its warfare strategy from informationized to intelligentized.  The establishment of the PLA-ISF is being hailed as a significant move. According to the second excerpted article from the PLA’s official newspaper PLA Daily, the PLA-ISF is the key support for coordinating the construction and application of network information systems.  It will improve the army’s joint combat capability and multi-domain combat capability by having a network information system at its core. Finally, it will help to achieve China’s goal of becoming a world-class force by  the 100th anniversary of the founding the PLA in 2027. This sentiment is echoed in the third excerpted article published on the website of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense. In it, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, Director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense, gave a press conference in which he explained that establishing the PLA-ISF will accelerate the pace of China’s national defense and military modernization and give the country “the ability to fight and win in modern warfare.”

Sources:

Gabriel Honrada, “New PLA Unit Underscores Intelligentized Warfare Shift,” Asia Times, (one of the region’s largest English-language pan-Asia digital news platforms.), 22 April 2024. https://asiatimes.com/2024/04/new-pla-unit-underscores-intelligentized-warfare-shift/

PLA-ISF aims to better integrate emerging AI, quantum and other technologies into multi-domain operational concept against the US and its allies.

China has just unveiled its People’s Liberation Army-Information Support Force (PLA-ISF), a rebranding of its previous PLA-Strategic Support Force (PLA-SSF) to reflect new responsibilities and capabilities and guide the military’s technology-driven integrated combat concept, Chinese state media reports said.

In contrast to traditional PLA services such as the Ground Force, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force, the PLA’s strategic arms, such as the Aerospace Force, Cyberspace Force and Joint Logistics Support, focus on more specialized areas critical to modern warfare.

Source:  “解放军报评论员：努力建设一支强大的现代化信息支援部队 (PLA Daily Commentator: Strive to Build a Strong Modern Information Support Force),” Chinese Ministry of National Defense, reposted from PLA Daily (Official newspaper of the PLA), 20 April 2024. http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/jmsd/16302172.html

… As a newly created strategic branch of the military, the information support force is the key support for the coordinated construction and application of network information systems, and plays an important role in promoting the high-quality development of our army and winning the battle against the enemy. The information support force plays an important role and has great responsibilities in modern warfare. Reform will be successful and a strong army can be expected. The establishment of the information support force will definitely help improve our army’s joint combat capability and all-domain combat capability based on the network information system, and will definitely help achieve the goal of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the army as scheduled and accelerate the construction of the people’s army into a world-class army.

The reform and strengthening of the army is in full swing, and the clarion call is sounded to open a new chapter. At present, the entire army is going all out to fight a tough battle to achieve the goal of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the army. The responsibility is heavy and the mission is urgent.

Source: “信息支援部队是全新打造的战略性兵种 (The Information Support Force is a New Strategic Branch of the Military),” Chinese Ministry of National Defense website, 19 April 2024. http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/qwfb/16302053.html

Question: The conference inaugurates the Information Support Force. What kind of force is it?Wu Qian: The adjustment and establishment of information support forces is a major decision made by the CPC Central Committee and the Central Military Commission from the overall perspective of strengthening the military. It is a strategic move to build a new type of military structure and layout and improve the modern military force system with Chinese characteristics. It has great and far-reaching significance for accelerating the modernization of national defense and the military and effectively fulfilling the mission and tasks of the people’s army in the new era…

Notes:

[i] China’s Strategic Support Force was responsible for strategic missions including space-based intelligence, reconnaissance, electronic countermeasures, signals intelligence, information warfare, and communications. See Kevin McCauley, “People’s Liberation Army Changing Mission Of Civilian Personnel,” OE Watch, 06-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/peoples-liberation-army-changing-mission-of-civilian-personnel/; and Tim Thomas, “China’s New ‘4+2’ Service Branch Structure,” OE Watch, Volume 06, Issue 10, p27. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-past-issues/195241

China Unveils Its Most Advanced Aircraft Carrier

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China’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian, docks at the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai.

“The construction of the People’s Navy aircraft carriers has achieved a remarkable transformation from nothing to something.”

On 1 May 2024, China’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian, began its maiden sea trial[i] marking a pivotal stride in Chinese power projection. The Fujianis the largest and most advanced carrier in China’s fleet and will significantly enhance Beijing’s capacity to project power over greater distances and expand its ‘blue water’ capabilities.

According to the first excerpted article published by one of China’s largest internet companies NetEase, Fujian is China’s first domestically designed and built aircraft carrier featuring an electromagnetic catapult system. This key capability allows Fujian to launch heavier and larger aircraft than its predecessors, the Liaoning [RG1]  and the Shandong [RG2]. With increased payload capacity and extended range, Fujian enhances the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN)  ‘blue-water’ capabilities.[ii] Notably, Fujian surpasses its predecessors in tonnage and technological capabilities. Its construction also underscores China’s growing expertise in domestic carrier construction and development, marking a departure from reliance on Soviet designs. After completing sea trials and officially entering service, Fujian will significantly advance the PLAN capabilities, marking the beginning of the “three carrier era,” wherein one carrier can undergo maintenance, another can maintain training readiness, and the third can undertake carrier presence operations in strategically important maritime areas.

The second excerpt, published by the Chinese Communist Party newspaper China Daily, states that the sea trials of Fujian may be considerably longer than its two predecessors. This is due to Fujian’s technology upgrades, particularly the electromagnetic catapult, the evolution from a Soviet foundation, and its ability to accommodate additional equipment and aircraft. Further, an expert cited in the article details that Fujian’s sea trials will be divided into two primary components: equipment and personnel.[iii] He states that sea trials related to equipment are based on six characteristics, reliability, maintainability, testability, supportability, environmental adaptability, and safety. The sea trials related to personnel include habitability and people’s experience of the work environment. While the recent launch of Fujian marks significant progress for China, the United States still maintains a considerable lead in aircraft carrier application, experience, and technology.[iv] The US Navy’s operational experience with carriers, dating back to World War II, provides a depth of knowledge that China cannot match. Through decades of maritime experience, the US Navy has developed a mature and highly effective doctrine for carrier combat operations, integrating them into broader joint and combined arms strategies. In contrast, the PLAN lacks this historical, practical, and combat experience.[v] Despite this, through rigorous sea trials, Fujian will not only enhance China’s technological prowess but also gain invaluable operational experience, positioning itself for greater maritime prominence in the future.

Sources:

Fu Qianshao, “超燃！我国将进入“三航母时代”！(Super Hot! My Country Enters the “3 Aircraft Carrier Era), Netease (one of China’s largest internet companies, subject to regulatory oversight and censorship by China’s Cyberspace Administration), 02 May 2024. https://m.163.com/dy/article/J16ADKLT0514R9KQ.html

On June 17, 2022, China marked the launch and naming of its third aircraft carrier, christened ‘Fujian Ship of the People’s Liberation Army Navy.’ On May 1, 2024, the carrier embarked on its inaugural sea trial. With the addition of Fujian, China now boasts three aircraft carriers, each with unique performance and combat capabilities, joining the Liaoning and Shandong in its naval fleet.

The Liaoning, originally a Soviet carrier commissioned in 1985, serves as China’s inaugural aircraft carrier, boasting a 60,000-ton displacement. Despite its origins, extensive upgrades have rendered it a crucial asset for China’s maritime and aerial operations expansion. In contrast, the Shandong represents China’s first indigenous medium-sized aircraft carrier, featuring a design, development, and construction entirely undertaken within the country. Slightly larger than the Liaoning, the Shandong features an expanded flight deck and significant advancements in internal systems, elevators, and shipboard weaponry. The latest addition, Fujian, marks a significant technological leap for China’s naval capabilities. As the country’s first carrier equipped with an electromagnetic catapult system, Fujian boasts a load displacement exceeding 80,000 tons, surpassing its predecessors in both size and technological sophistication.

As with new surface vessels across naval fleets worldwide, Fujian will undergo rigorous sea trials before entering active service. These trials encompass two primary aspects: equipment and personnel evaluation. Equipment trials scrutinize the ship’s reliability, maintainability, testability, supportability, environmental resilience, and safety standards. Meanwhile, personnel trials assess aspects such as habitability and operational effectiveness.

With the successful completion of sea trials and Fujian’s official commissioning, it is poised to significantly advance the capabilities of the PLAN. This heralds the commencement of the ‘three carrier era,’ wherein one aircraft carrier can undergo maintenance, another can maintain training readiness, and the third can undertake crucial carrier presence operations in strategically important maritime areas.

With its adoption of cutting-edge electromagnetic catapult technology, Fujian will have a higher dispatch rate for carrier-based aircraft compared to its predecessors. Furthermore, its integration of domestically developed technologies underscores China’s commitment to indigenous innovation and self-reliance. Through rigorous sea trials, the PLAN will not only enhance its technological prowess but also gain invaluable operational experience, positioning itself for greater maritime prominence in the future.

Source: Gao Linlin, “你好，18舰！欢迎，福建舰！(Hello, Ship 18! Welcome, Fujian Ship!),” China Daily (a daily newspaper owned by the Publicity Department of the Chinese Communist Party), 02 May 2024. https://cn.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202405/02/WS6633074fa3109f7860ddc054.html

On 01 May 2024, China’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian, unmoored and set sail from the docks of Jiangnan Shipyard to conduct its inaugural sea trials. These sea trials aim to access the reliability and stability of Fujian’s power, electricity, and other essential systems. Fujian stands as a significant emblem of the navy’s evolution and the emergence of high-quality combat forces. The rapid expansion of China’s aircraft carrier force underscores a deliberate effort to enhance combat capabilities. Progressing from a single carrier to three, China has charted a distinct trajectory in the construction of its aircraft carrier force, reflecting a transformation tailored with Chinese characteristics.

Before new ships are commissioned, navies worldwide conduct sea trials to assess their performance across various metrics through actual navigation at sea. The sea trials of Fujian are divided into two primary components: equipment and personnel evaluation. Equipment trials scrutinize reliability, maintainability, testability, supportability, environmental adaptability, and safety. Concurrently, personnel trials focus on factors such as habitability and operational experience within the work environment.

Fujian marks a significant leap forward in technology and tonnage compared to its predecessors, garnering attention as the first Chinese aircraft carrier not based on a Soviet template. With its considerably larger tonnage, Fujian has increased capacity to accommodate additional equipment and aircraft. Furthermore, the incorporation of new technologies such as the electromagnetic catapult underscores its cutting-edge capabilities. Given these substantial upgrades and the absence of a Soviet foundation, the sea trials for Fujian may be longer compared to those of the two previous carriers.With the official commissioning of Fujian, the navy will transition into a ‘three carrier era,’ facilitating a rotation system where one carrier can undergo repairs, another can maintain training readiness, and the third can engage in combat training. This strategic deployment enables the PLAN to always ensure the presence of an aircraft carrier in strategically important sea areas. Furthermore, equipped with an electromagnetic catapult, Fujian is poised to play a pivotal role in executing key tasks within critical maritime domains.

Notes:

[i] To watch the full CCTV-7 video report of Fujian’s unmooring, see CCTV’s video post, CCTV, 02 May 2024.

https://tv.cctv.com/2024/05/02/VIDEtGTVEkVgMH4Cp34Hli4M240502.shtml?spm=C53074552346.P4BWJvVoMUky.S51904.6

[ii] Brandon Lendon, “China’s newest aircraft carrier heads to sea for first time,” CNN, 01 May 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/01/china/china-navy-newest-aircraft-carrier-fujian-sea-trial-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

[iii] CCTV-13 features a special military commentator, a former PLAN officer commissioned from Dalian Academy, to provide insights into Fujian’s sea trials, CCTV-13 News Channel, 09 May 2204. https://tv.cctv.com/2024/05/09/VIDEYJxMXBbSzJFnn5zSoBNr240509.shtml

[iv] Greg Torode, Eduardo Baptista, Tim Kelly, “China’s aircraft carriers play ‘theatrical’ role but pose little threat yet” Reuters. 05 May 2023. https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-aircraft-carriers-play-theatrical-role-pose-little-threat-yet-2023-05-05/

 [v] Benjamin Brimelow, “US vs. Chinese aircraft carriers: How the world’s top flattops stack up,” Business Insider,01 June 2024. https://www.businessinsider.com/us-vs-chinese-navy-aircraft-carriers-2024-5

Image Information:

Image: China’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian, docks at the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai.  
Source: https://english.news.cn/20240501/72b54c6bb8f34058a011c44971de3c0e/c.html
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

India Successfully Tests Agni-V Ballistic Missile Upgrade

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Agni-V ICBM Range Envelope centered at Integrated Test Range, Odissa. Declared range of 5500 km in pale indigo and estimated expanded range of 7000+ km in faded circumference.

“The opacity surrounding this MIRV missile is about the number of warheads it can carry, which in all likelihood would remain classified.”

India’s ability to carry out a strategic or tactical nuclear strike has been limited compared to that of its adversary, China. However, in recent years, India has made efforts to match Chinese capabilities. In early March 2024, India announced the successful test of a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) for its Agni-V [R1] ballistic missile, further strengthening India’s nuclear strike capabilities even as it maintains a “no first use” policy.[i] The accompanying excerpted article from the conservative-leaning English-language newspaper The Hindu, reports on the recent MIRV test for the Agni-V and considers what it means for India. The article suggests that with a MIRV capable 3100 mile range Agni-V missile, India has now achieved more balance in its nuclear deterrence capability with China. The article acknowledges that some of its specific capabilities remain unknown, critical being how many warheads it can carry (the authors speculate that it carries three) and whether it can carry decoys. Finally, the article mentions that India’s defense industry will test a long-range submarine-launched ballistic missile, likely the latest variant of the K-series, at some point in the future.[ii] Altogether, the successful MIRV test for the Agni-V, and future testing for its submarine-launched ballistic missile, indicate that India will continue to seek nuclear parity with China.

OE Insight Summary:

In March 2024 IND successfully tested a MIRV, with a reported three-warhead capacity, for its Agni-V ICBM as part of a long-term deterrence effort to match CHN strategic nuclear strike capabilities.

Sources:

Harsh V. Pant and Kartik Bommakanti, “The MIRV leap that fires up India’s nuclear deterrence,” The Hindu (privately owned, conservative-leaning English-language newspaper in India), 19 March 2024. https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-mirv-leap-that-fires-up-indias-nuclear-deterrence/article67965762.ece

The Agni-5 ballistic missile test dubbed the “Divyastra”, that was conducted by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), is strategically consequential. With a range of over 5,000 kilometres, the Agni-5 is the longest-range missile India has tested so far. But it is not simply its range but, equally, its potency which represents a watershed moment for India’s nuclear deterrent. The potency of India’s nuclear deterrent is enhanced because this variant is integrated with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs)…

Though MIRV technology is not new, it is to India…MIRV-tipped missiles are a necessity simply because they strike multiple targets simultaneously and help evade ballistic missiles defences. China is building ballistic missile defences such as the Hongqi (HQ-19) ground-based ballistic missile interceptors, which have been tested, but their capacity to intercept Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMS) such as the Agni-5 is still suspect…

Now that India has integrated the Agni-5 with multiple warheads, greater balance has been restored in the Sino-Indian nuclear deterrent relationship. To be sure, more testing of the MIRV-capable Agni-5 will be required…

The opacity surrounding this MIRV missile is about the number of warheads it can carry, which in all likelihood would remain classified. Going by speculation, it is improbable that it can carry more than three warheads. Further, the yield of the nuclear warheads is likely to be limited due to the small number of atomic tests India has conducted. In addition, it is unclear whether the Agni-5 can carry decoys and chaff, especially during the boost and intermediate phase of the missile’s flight. Agni-5 will in all probability be launched from a road mobile platform.This is a China-specific missile. There could be more to come from the DRDO and AEC with India adding more punch to its nuclear arsenal when it tests a long-range Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM), which India’s nuclear ballistic missile submarines can launch. The Agni-5 with MIRV capability bolsters India’s nuclear capabilities vis-à-vis China. It puts China on notice — that India is preparing itself to counter the advances Beijing has made with its missile and missile defence programmes…

Notes:

[i] India adopted its “no first use” policy shortly after its first successful nuclear test in the late 1990s. In August 2019, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh mentioned that India’s policy might change depending on the circumstances, but India continues to have a no first use policy when it comes to its nuclear arsenal.

[ii] In November 2018, Indian officials announced the country had joined the ranks of nuclear triad governments when the INS Arihant, a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, carried out its first deterrence deployment that month. While India reportedly only maintains the triad when one of its ballistic missile submarines are deployed, the 2018 deployment demonstrated India’s long-term goals of nuclear deterrence. For background, see: Matthew Stein, “Is India’s Nuclear Triad Complete?,” OE Watch, January 2019. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-singular-format/296884

Iranian Warships Conduct Joint Naval Drills With China and Russia

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“Shahid Sayyad Shirazi (FS313-03),” Khabar Online (Iranian news website affiliated with reformist political faction), 21 January 2024.

“The new ships added to the IRGC Navy are participating in this joint exercise for the first time and are conducting operations.”

In March, China, Iran, and Russia held joint naval drills in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, known as the 2024 Maritime Security Belt.[i] As part of the fourth group exercise since 2019, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Navy (IRGC-N) deployed two new warships, the Shahid Hassan Bagheri [R1] and Shahid (Ali) Sayyad Shirazi. As noted in the excerpted article from the Iran-based Mehr News Agency, both warships are heavily armed, guided-missile catamarans of the Shahid Soleimani class launched in 2022.[ii] Shahid Soleimani class warships are believed to be the most advanced IRGC-N ships to date and have an operational reach of 5,600 miles.[iii]

According to the second excerpted article from IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency, both ships are named after martyrs of the Iran-Iraq War. The article also provides tech-specs noting, that the warships are powered by four engines, are 67 meters long, travel 45 knots, and carry an array of defense and offensive missiles, and an armed combat helicopter. According to Tasmin, the warships are reportedly capable of traveling 5,500 nautical miles—a slight discrepancy to the 5,600-mile range reported for Shahid Soleimani class ships by Mehr News Agency. In January 2024, another Shahid Soleimani class warship was revealed: the Shahid Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis The ship is named after the commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella group of Shia militias, whose commander was assassinated along with Soleimani in Iraq. While the Shahid Soleimani class warships are no match for U.S. capabilities, they should not be underestimated. The new additions are part of Iran’s plans to expand its presence in the Persian Gulf and extend its reach from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.

OE Insight Summary:

IRN recently added three warships to its navy and deployed two of them during military drills with CHN and RUS in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

Sources:

“حضور ناوهای جدید سپاه در رزمایش مشترک با چین و روسیه دراقیانوس هند (The presence of new IRGC ships in the joint exercise with China and Russia in the Indian Ocean),” Mehr News Agency (semi-official news agency owned by Iranian government’s Islamic Development Organization), 13 March 2024. https://www.mehrnews.com/news/6054031/%D8%AD%D8%B6%D9%88%D8%B1-%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AC%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%B3%D9%BE%D8%A7%D9%87-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%B1%D8%B2%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B4-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%B1%DA%A9-%D8%A8%D8%A7%DA%86%DB%8C%D9%86-%D9%88-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%88%D8%B3

According to Mehr News, the 2024 (Maritime) Security Belt exercise was conducted with the participation of the countries China, Russia, and Iran with shooting at the designated surface targets.

In this exercise, the Shahid Mahmoudi, Shahid Haj Qasem Soleimani, Shahid Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis warships, Tondar-class Shahid Tavassoli frigate, as well as IRGC maritime helicopters and the heroic soldiers of the Islamic Republic are present.

The new ships added to the IRGC Navy are participating in this joint exercise for the first time and are conducting operations.

“الحاق ۲ ناو رزمی شهید صیاد شیرازی و شهید حسن باقری به نیروی دریایی سپاه (Addition of two warships Shahid (Ali) Sayyad Shirazi and Shahid Hassan Bagheri to the IRGC Navy),” Tasnim News Agency (IRGC-affiliated outlet), 21 January 2024. https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1402/11/30/3041554/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%82-2-%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%88-%D8%B1%D8%B2%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%B4%D9%87%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%B5%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%B4%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B2%DB%8C-%D9%88-%D8%B4%D9%87%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%AD%D8%B3%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B1%D9%88%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%D8%B3%D9%BE%D8%A7%D9%87

According to Tasnim News Agency’s defense correspondent, this morning in Bandar Abbas (a port city), the combat patrol vessels the Shahid (Ali) Sayyad Shirazi and Shahid Hassan Bagheri were joined by the IRGC Naval Combat Organization in the presence of chief of staff of the armed forces Major General Mohammad Bagheri.

These two stealth vessels are of the Shahid (Qasem) Soleimani class, and recently the Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis vessel of this class was unveiled and joined the IRGC-Navy. These ocean-going vessels are catamaran-type with a speed of 45 knots and many offensive and defensive missiles.

These vessels are equipped with a Navab vertical launch missile defense system and a Sayyad cruise missile with a range of 700 kilometers. They are capable of carrying three light missile launchers and an armed combat helicopter. These two IRGC naval vessels are 67 meters long, 20 meters wide, weigh 600 tons, and have four engines. Shahid Bagheri’s vessel was built at the IRGC-N’s specialized vessel center in Bushehr. The Shahid (Ali) Sayyad Shirazi vessel is equipped with Sayyad long-range defense missiles and Navab defense missiles. These vessels are capable of sailing 5,500 nautical miles.

Notes:

[i] According to Iranian Rear Adm. Amrollah Nozari, the exercises cover 6,500 square miles of sea “in an area of strategic importance to the whole world.” See: Brad Lendon, “China, Russia and Iran put on show of force with Mideast naval drills,” CNN, 14 March 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/13/middleeast/china-russia-iran-navy-drills-intl-hnk/index.html

[ii] The Shahid Soleimani class warships are named in honor of assassinated Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed via a U.S. drone strike in Iraq in 2020. For a review of the U.S. strike on Soleimani, See: Michael Crowley, Falih Hassan and Eric Schmitt, “U.S. Strike in Iraq Kills Qassim Suleimani, Commander of Iranian Forces,” The New York Times, 2 January 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/world/middleeast/qassem-soleimani-iraq-iran-attack.html

[iii] Eric Wertheim, “Iran’s first VLS missile catamaran,” U.S. Naval Institute, December 2023. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/december/irans-first-vls-missile-catamaran; Farzin Nadimi, “New Iranian Warship Signals Longer Maritime Reach, More Aggressive Strategy,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 16 September 2022. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/new-iranian-warship-signals-longer-maritime-reach-more-aggressive-strategy

Image Information:

Image: “Shahid Sayyad Shirazi (FS313-03),” Khabar Online (Iranian news website affiliated with reformist political faction), 21 January 2024.
Source: https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/1874777/%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%87-%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B3-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%B3%D9%BE%D8%A7%D9%87-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%87%DB%8C-%D8%B4%D8%AF%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%AC%D8%B2%D8%A6%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B9%DA%A9%D8%B3
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

China Uses Non-Lethal Tactics To Harass Philippines Personnel

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China claims a maximal amount of maritime territory in the South China Sea, which leads to disputes with all of its neighbors over reefs, shoals, islands, and other features.

“The People’s Liberation Army claims that compared with face-to-face conflict, this aerial sand-blowing tactic will not cause fatal harm to [Philippine] personnel and can prevent them from ‘causing chaos’.”

China often asserts its maritime territorial claims in the South China Sea by employing non-lethal tactics that are sufficient to prevent an adversary’s ships from approaching or landing on disputed features. Referred to as “salami slicing,” these tactics avoid provoking direct confrontation with naval adversaries, such as the Philippines, and their stronger allies, such as the United States, while allowing China to dictate when clashes occur and to incrementally control disputed shoals and reefs.[i] On 26 March, the Chinese-language website wenxucity.com published the excerpted article detailing specific tactics the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) employs against Philippine vessels and personnel near the Tiexian Reef in the South China Sea. The Philippines occupy the Tiexian Reef, which lies in shallow water preventing larger ships from approaching, by dispatching smaller vessels to it from nearby Thitu Islands. Only several dozen Philippine personnel can land on the reef at any one time. The CCG have utilized the non-lethal tactic of flying a helicopter at low altitude over the reef to blow enormous amounts of sand and rock into Philippine vessels and personnel. The article claims that the deafening noise from the helicopter’s three turboshaft engines can cause dizziness and affect the internal organs of Philippine soldiers or researchers. As a result, the Philippines has been unable to station forces on the reef to enforce Philippine sovereignty. The article concludes that these methods are sufficient to evict Philippine personnel from disputed areas without causing fatalities, reducing the risk of escalation or retaliation from the Philippines or its allies, while allowing China to still assert its territorial claims.

OE Insight Summary:

CHN deploys helicopters to blow sand and rock and make deafening noises to prevent PHL personnel from stationing on disputed the Tiexian Reef as part of a broader CHN strategy to enforces its maritime territorial claims in SCS.

Sources:

“菲律宾再登铁线礁 中国用直升机掀“飞沙走石”驱离 (The Philippines once again lands on Tiexian Reef, but China uses helicopters to send ‘flying sand and rocks’ to force them out),” wenxuecity.com (Chinese-language website tailored towards educated Chinese outside mainland China), 26 March 2024. https://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2024/03/26/125489186.html

After the Philippines landed on Tiexian Reef, a disputed reef in the South China Sea, for the second time, it was immediately forced away by the Chinese Navy’s Z-8J [R1] helicopter at a very low altitude. Under the effects of the powerful airflow from the helicopter, there was nowhere to hide on the coast as sand and rocks were blown everywhere. The Philippine “scientific research team” who landed on the reef was escaping…. When operating at full strength, the noise is unbearable. If one is too close to the helicopter, it can even disturb a human’s internal organs. 

The People’s Liberation Army claims that compared with face-to-face conflict, this aerial sand-blowing method will not cause fatal harm to personnel and may prevent them from “stirring chaos”, so it is more suitable for evicting Filipinos who land on the reef. The shallow water is not suitable for interception by large ships, and besides that Thitu Island has comprehensive facilities that can provide effective logistical support. For example, large aircraft can take off and land to pull people over, and then directly transfer to ships to ascend the reef.

Notes:

[i] “Salami slicing” refers to the taking of territory in a slow and gradual manner and is “a strategy that involves divide and conquer process of threats and alliances to overcome opposition and acquire new territories.” China has employed this strategy in the South China Sea and in the Himalayan region. Prabhash K Dutta, “What is China’s salami slicing tactic that Army chief Bipin Rawat talked about?,” India Today, 7 September 2017. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/doklam-china-salami-slicing-army-chief-general-bipin-rawat-1039864-2017-09-07

Image Information:

Image: China claims a maximal amount of maritime territory in the South China Sea, which leads to disputes with all of its neighbors over reefs, shoals, islands, and other features.
Source: Voice of America, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:South_China_Sea_claims_map.jpg
Attribution: CCA 2.0

China Employs AI Enabled Water Cannon To Enforce South China Sea Territorial Claims

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Chinese Coast Guard use water cannons to harass Philippine fishermen.

“The Philippines’ entire naval force owns only two frigates capable of launching missiles. Recognizing this imbalance, the Chinese government has ramped up investment in water cannon technology… Beijing increasingly sees the weapons as vital to bolstering its hold over the disputed waters while also lowering the odds of armed clashes.”

China has managed to avoid open conflict while continually advancing its claims in the South China Sea in part because China employs a variety of non-lethal weapons and tactics. In the following excerpted article published by Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post, the author notes that water cannons have been a critical non-lethal weapon regularly used by the People’s Liberation Army Navy and Chinese Coast Guard against the navies and personnel of other countries in the area, especially in its territorial disputes with the Philippines.[i] The article describes a recent case when a Chinese ship fired a traditional water cannon into a Philippine ship shattering the cockpit windscreen, injuring several personnel, and forcing the Philippine ship to cede. However, according to the article, current water cannon technology is less effective in rough seas. The article claims that a new artificial intelligence (AI) water cannon has been developed by a Chinese firm that could have an outsized influence on China’s ability to maintain its maritime territorial claims. The newly developed AI water cannon is “equipped with motion sensors that collect the swing state of the ship to alter the ballistic parameters allowing it to stay on target under a variety of conditions,” enabling China to continually target adversaries “with an error of only two meters in rough conditions.” The development of a more accurate AI driven water cannon should be considered part of China’s full spectrum warfare. Non-lethal in nature, it would allow China to take offensive action while minimizing the threat of a traditionally lethally armed confrontation. This places the onus on China’s competitors to come up with their own non-lethal weapons and counter-tactics, respond with violent action that could plunge the South China Sea into armed conflict, or ultimately cede the territory.

OE Watch Insight:

The development of an AI-driven water cannon seems to indicate CHN’s commitment to use non-lethal weapons to advance its territorial claims in the South China Sea while avoiding armed conflict.

Sources:

Stephen Chen, “’Subdue the enemy without fighting’: How China’s powerful water cannon will change the game in South China Sea,” SCMP. 13 April 2024. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3258772/subdue-enemy-without-fighting-how-chinas-powerful-water-cannon-will-change-game-south-china-sea?utm_medium=email&utm_source=cm&utm_campaign=enlz-today_international&utm_content=20240413&tpcc=enlz-today_international&UUID=200d3857-7b09-402a-bc24-cdd797d79a18&next_article_id=3258875&article_id_list=3258772,3258875,3258822,3258887,3258877,3258884,3258908,3258904&tc=4

The world’s first “smart” water cannon, controlled by artificial intelligence (AI), has been developed by researchers in central China – and it could take the non-lethal weapon to new heights..

The water cannon is also equipped with motion sensors that collect the swing state of the ship to alter the ballistic parameters.

Conditions at sea create complex environmental wind and fluid patterns and mechanical transmission errors, so it can be challenging to lock onto and hit a precise spot on a ship in the distance, such as a smokestack, with a water jet on a swaying coastguard vessel.

…

China has been vigorously developing its maritime forces in recent decades, including electromagnetic catapult aircraft carriers, hypersonic anti-ship missiles, ultra-high-power electronic warfare systems and other cutting-edge equipment.

They are formidable weapons, aimed squarely at the US military, but they are too much for territorial disputes against smaller Southeast Asian nations in the South China Sea.

The vast disparity in military strength renders China’s hi-tech arsenal impractical against these neighbours. For instance, the Philippines’ entire naval force owns only two frigates capable of launching missiles. Recognizing this imbalance, the Chinese government has ramped up investment in water cannon technology, developing a range of increasingly automated and powerful products.

The technology has also been aided from an unlikely quarter – China’s infrastructure projects. With large-scale land reclamation and other infrastructure projects under way, China has some of the world’s most powerful dredging vessels that suck seabed sediment to redistribute it to designated areas. The water pump technology involved in that process is perfectly suited to driving high-performance water cannons…

Zhang Yuqiang, a researcher with the People’s Armed Police Maritime Police Academy Command Department, said that shipboard non-lethal weapons including water cannons “will play an increasingly important role in future maritime conflicts”.

“In recent years, competition and struggles around marine interests and power have become increasingly fierce, and maritime disputes have become a common challenge faced by most maritime countries in the world,”

Because all sides are “fighting for every inch of land and refusing to cede an inch”, the team said, using traditional lethal weapons in small-scale skirmishes could cause them escalate into large-scale armed conflicts. It is a situation that neither China nor other countries around the South China Sea wish to see.Other major maritime countries are now stepping up research and deployment of other types of non-lethal weapons, including blinding lasers and microwaves that can cause skin-burning sensations, they said.

Notes:

[i] South Korea, Taiwan and Japan are also equipped with, and have used, water cannons in naval disputes with competitor nations over maritime territories or fisheries, while the Philippines is lacking in comparison.

Image Information:

Image: Chinese Coast Guard use water cannons to harass Philippine fishermen.
Source: https://www.jamesokeefe.org/2023/12/naval-politics-by-other-means/
Attribution: CCA 4.0 INT

China Reveals Its Carrier-Based J-15D Electronic Warfare Fighter

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The J-15D, featured in a CCTV-7 Military News episode, displaying two electronic warfare pods on the wing tips and two larger electronic warfare pods on the inside of the wings.

“Chinese aircraft carrier formations have reached a new level of comprehensive combat capabilities, and has entered the era of offensive operations, breaking the monopoly advantage of the U.S. military. This is something we are very happy about.”

The introduction of the J-15D [R1] signals a pivotal moment for Chinese aircraft carrier formations, enabling them to execute strikes against adversaries with sophisticated air defense systems according to the first article published by government-censored Chinese internet and gaming provider NetEase. The Chinese J-15D electronic warfare aircraft made its first public appearance on CCTV in late March 2024.[i] Equipped with electronic countermeasures, reconnaissance capabilities, and the capacity to disrupt enemy radar and missile systems, the J-15D substantially enhances the combat power of Chinese aircraft carriers.[ii] The article highlights three key aspects of the J-15D. First, its strategic value in anti-ship warfare is underscored by its comprehensive suite of electronic warfare, anti-radiation warfare, and air combat capabilities. Second, the J-15D signifies China’s comparable strength to the U.S. in the field of electronic warfare. Third, its ability to provide situational awareness is crucial, particularly in scenarios involving the deployment of hypersonic missiles by Chinese aircraft carrier formations. The J-15D confers an asymmetric advantage with its capacity to target adversaries at long distances and provide targeting guidance for hypersonic missiles. Overall, the J-15D signifies a “a new level in terms of comprehensive combat capabilities” for the Chinese aircraft carrier fleet. The second excerpt, published on highly regulated Chinese internet platform Tencent, suggests that the introduction of the J-15D also marks a significant shift in the combat strategy of China’s aircraft carriers. The excerpt states that in the past, the People’s Liberation Army Navy followed the Soviet Navy’s model, relying on carrier-based fighter jets for air defense while utilizing escort ships for long-range anti-ship attacks. With advancements in the performance of the J-15D, Chinese aircraft carriers are now capable of conducting long-range anti-ship and ground operations coupled with defensive and offensive electronic warfare.[iii] The J-15D, with its offensive capabilities, can engage in long-range sea or ground attacks alongside other carrier-based fighters, leveraging electronic warfare systems to dominate the battle space.[iv] This poses an “unprecedented” threat to U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups.

OE Insight Summary:

CHN’s naval aviation strength has significantly increased with the introduction of the J-15D, a carrier-based EW fighter jet. This EW fighter enhances CHN’s ability to assert electronic dominance from its aircraft carriers, providing strategic versatility in maritime operations.

Sources:

Fu Qianshao, “ ‘央视曝光’电战鲨’，歼-15D推动航母编队进入攻势作战时代 (CCTV Reveals ‘Electric War Shark’, the J-15D Propels Aircraft Carrier Formations into an Era of Offensive Operations),” Netease (one of China’s largest internet companies, subject to regulatory oversight and censorship by the national internet regulator, China’s Cyberspace Administration), 02 April 2024. https://www.163.com/dy/article/IUPAKE5T0535T18G.html

CCTV’s ‘Military Report’ recently aired footage showcasing the J-15D fighter jet as it commenced a naval training program, signaling a significant advancement for China’s aircraft carrier capabilities. Notably, the J-15D fills a crucial gap that its predecessor, the J-16D, couldn’t address, as it lacked compatibility for deployment on aircraft carriers.

The introduction of the J-15D into Chinese naval aviation signifies a pivotal advancement, enabling Chinese aircraft carrier formations to conduct air strikes against adversaries equipped with sophisticated air defense systems. Reflecting on the Gulf War, the US Air Force frequently coordinated air strikes against ground targets with electronic warfare aircraft to neutralize ground defense systems. This underscores the critical role of electronic warfare aircraft in suppressing air defenses, a capability that the J-15D helps address.

Compared with the US EA-18G, is the J15-D superior or inferior? 1. The J-15D offers enhanced strategic value particularly in anti-ship warfare. The J-15 is equipped with electronic warfare capabilities, anti-ship warfare and anti-radiation warfare, and has a relatively complete air combat capability. Compared to the J15-D, the EA-18G has excellent electronic warfare capabilities, limited anti-radiation and air combat capabilities, and almost no anti-ship combat capabilities. 2. The J-15D holds the advantage of possessing more modern electronic warfare technology, benefitting from China’s robust capabilities in the electronic industry. In the competition between China and the US in electronic warfare, China stands equal to the United States in terms of industry strength. 3. The tactical awareness offered by the J15-D holds significant value in scenarios where Chinese aircraft carriers possess hypersonic missiles. The J15-D’s ability to lock onto opponents’ carrier formations at longer distances and provide target indications for hypersonic missiles presents an asymmetric advantage. While the U.S. EA-18G possesses similar capabilities, its missile speed and range are insufficient to pose a threat to Chinese carrier formations.

Overall, the J-15D entry into service signifies that Chinese aircraft carrier formations reached a new level in terms of comprehensive combat capabilities, and entered the era of offensive operations, breaking the monopoly advantage of the US military. This is something we are very happy about. 

Kongtian Daliang, “央视官宣，歼15D ’咆哮鲨’ 喷涂海军灰，中国航母任务出现转变 (CCTV Reveals, J-15D “Roaring Shark” Sprayed Navy Grey, Marks Changes for Chinese Aircraft Missions),” Tencent (China’s largest multinational technology conglomerate, operating within a tightly regulated environment), 26 March 2024. https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240326A0442K00

Recent footage from the CCTV Military Channel showcased the J-15D carrier-based electronic warfare aircraft. The aircraft, painted in navy gray, suggests that it is either nearing or has already entered service. The presence of the J-15D fighter indicates a shift in focus for Chinese aircraft carriers from air defense to offense.

The CCTV footage reveals that the J-15D electronic warfare aircraft is equipped with two electronic warfare pods mounted under its wings, like the PLAAF J-16D [R1] electronic warfare aircraft. The primary function of this electronic warfare equipment is to analyze enemy radar frequencies, identify, jam, position, and target enemy radars. A notable distinction between the J-15D and other J-15 fighters is the absence of the airspeed tube, indicating comprehensive upgrades to the aircraft’s electronic equipment such as radar and sensors, facilitating comprehensive control of electromagnetic signals in combat airspace.

The introduction of the J-15D signifies a significant transformation in China’s aircraft carrier combat missions. Previously, Chinese aircraft carriers faced a distinct disadvantage compared to American super aircraft carriers. Consequently, the Soviet Navy model was adopted, utilizing carrier jets for air defense cover while escort ships launch long-range anti-ship missiles to conduct attacks. With the increasing maturity of the J-15, it is now equipped with air-launched anti-ship missiles, bolstering Chinese aircraft carriers’ offensive air capabilities.

The primary objective of the J-15D is to employ high-power electronic warfare equipment to suppress and disrupt the opponent’s electronic systems, while employing various methods to degrade the opponent’s radar detection capabilities. Alongside other carrier-based fighters, the J-15D can execute long-range sea and ground attacks, utilizing its electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize the opponent’s air defense systems. For US aircraft carrier strike groups, the threat posed by the J-15D is unprecedented. As for Japan’s ‘Izumo’ class light aircraft carriers, they are equipped with the F-35B stealth fighters, which have a generational advantage over the J-15 series. However, the number of F-35B aircraft is limited and may have limited warning aircraft to provide airspace intelligence and early warning. This greatly reduces the situational awareness capability of the F-35B. In addition, the J-15D retains most of the J-15’s air combat capabilities, and electronic warfare aircraft can be regarded as the nemesis of stealth fighter jets. Therefore, Chinese aircraft carriers employing J-15D aircraft are enough to cause Japanese light aircraft carriers to suffer significant losses.

Notes:

[i] To watch the full CCTV-7 video of the J15-D, see CCTV’s C-Bit Series Baidu post, Baidu, 24 March 2024. https://haokan.baidu.com/v?pd=wisenatural&vid=17129917562037813254

[ii] Mu Feng Lun Dao, “电战版歼-15D来袭，央视正式官宣，中国航母舰载机最后拼图全凑齐 (Electronic Warfare Version of J15-D is Coming, CCTV Formally Announces, Completing the Final Piece for China’s Carrier-Borne Aircraft),” Netease, 26 March 2024. https://www.163.com/dy/article/IU70SP910552YXLH.html

[iii] A Taiwanese news channel invites a Chinese military expert to discuss the strengths and advantages of the J-15D fighter plane, CTI News Channel, 02 April. 2024. https://youtu.be/srdhxxwV-CQ?t=304

[iv] A Taiwanese news channel invites a Chinese military expert to discuss the combat application of the J15-D, CTI News Channel, 30 March 2024. https://youtu.be/s6o1H0ffZXU?t=101

Image Information:

Image: The J-15D, featured in a CCTV-7 Military News episode, displaying two electronic warfare pods on the wing tips and two larger electronic warfare pods on the inside of the wings.
Source: https://haokan.baidu.com/v?pd=wisenatural&vid=17129917562037813254
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.