
The China Coast Guard posted a heart-shaped patrol route around Taiwan on their official Weibo account during the exercise, accompanied by the message, “The coast guard’s patrol is in the shape of loving you.”
“Every time separatist forces provoke, the PLA will push forward. The closer the separatist forces align with external forces, the tighter our ‘chain’ around Taiwan will be.”
On 14 October, China conducted large-scale military drills, Joint Sword-2024B, around Taiwan and its surrounding islands. These drills expand upon the previous Joint Sword-2024A drills from late May 2024 and serve as a direct response to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s “Double Tenth” speech in Taipei.[i]
The Beijing Daily, the official newspaper of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, published the first excerpted article featuring Senior Colonel Zhang Chi, a professor from the National Defense University, and Senior Captain Zhang Junshe, a researcher from the Naval Military Academic Research Institute. According to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers, the Liaoning carrier group conducted joint exercises east of the Bashi Channel with the aim of enhancing joint combat capabilities between the army, navy, air force, and rocket force. A bomber formation accompanied the carrier group to enforce a maritime barrier, practicing the prevention of intervention and interference by external forces.[ii] Senior Colonel Zhang Junshe stated that in the event of mainland military strikes against Taiwan, the Liaoning carrier group would also be capable of targeting the island’s eastern cave bases, such as those in Hualien and Taitung, which are designed to preserve Taiwan’s military combat power. The exercise also highlighted organized blockade drills on key major ports, which account for the majority of Taiwan’s imports, potentially causing significant disruptions to Taiwan’s energy supply, economy, and society during wartime.[iii] Lastly, the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) emphasized the use of ships 1305, 1303, and 2102 for conducting law enforcement inspections around Taiwan to “control the island” and to practice preventing Taiwan independence elements from evading sanctions or escaping using civilian vessels. Notably, this marked the first time they patrolled around the entire island of Taiwan and the islands of Dongyin and Matsu, including the first use of the 2901 Zhoutou-class ship for this type of patrol, the largest armed coast guard cutter in the world. Senior Colonel Zhang Chi reaffirms China’s official statements made during Joint Sword-2024A, asserting that the PLA will deploy additional assets, improve joint operational capabilities, and progressively tighten Taiwan’s defense perimeter with each successive exercise.[iv]
The significance of the CCG patrols is further elaborated in the second excerpted article, published by Yuyuan Tantian, a news outlet under the direct control of the Central Propaganda Department of the CCP. First, the CCG deployed six fleets, twice as many as the previous exercise. Second, diagrams released by the CCG indicate that not only did patrol ships encircle Taiwan for the first time, but they also suggest that the CCG will adopt a flexible and unpredictable approach to future patrols to enhance operational effectiveness and maintain strategic ambiguity. Lastly, the CCG entered restricted waters around the Matsu Islands, setting a precedent for future law enforcement patrols.[v] Joint Sword-2024B ultimately establishes a precedent of the PLA edging closer to Taiwan’s periphery, employing salami-slicing tactics to normalize the increasing displays of military force. This gradual increase in military deployments and restricted geographic scope aims to shorten Taiwan’s response time while minimizing international pushback.[vi]
Sources:
Bai Bo, “辽宁舰航母编队位台岛以东演练,让“台独”势力无处可藏!(The Liaoning aircraft carrier group is conducting exercises east of Taiwan, “Taiwan independence” forces has nowhere to hide!),” Beijing Daily (the official newspaper of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the CCP), 14 October 2024. https://tinyurl.com/8jt4jbye
On 14 October 2024, the Eastern Theater Command released a statement announcing that the PLA organized its army, navy, air force, rocket force, and other units to execute the ‘Joint Sword-2024B’ exercise in the Taiwan Strait and in areas to the north, south, and east of Taiwan. Later that evening, the Command issued another statement concluding the exercise, which was deemed successful in testing the joint capabilities of theater forces. This exercise came just days after Lai Ching-te’s “Double Tenth” speech in Taipei on 10 October 2024, where he promoted separatist rhetoric and inflamed tensions between both sides of the Taiwan Strait. According to military expert Zhang Junshe, who spoke to the Beijing Daily, the PLA’s exercise directly targeted the “Taiwan Independence” remarks in Lai’s speech.
During the exercise, the Eastern Theater Command conducted drills on blockading key ports, seizing regional power, sea assaults, and land strikes around Taiwan. These drills tested multi-domain coordination and precision strike capabilities. Professor Zhang Chi of the National Defense University emphasized that each time separatist forces provoke, the PLA will respond by advancing. He added that the closer separatist forces align with external actors, the tighter the PLA will draw the “chain” encircling Taiwan.
The Liaoning aircraft carrier group was also deployed east of Taiwan to conduct joint exercises with the army, navy, air force, and rocket force, focusing on integrating the capabilities of all services. The carrier group was accompanied by bomber formations to establish a maritime barrier, simulating the blocking of external intervention and interference. Zhang Junshe further noted that Taiwan’s military has built large cave bases in Hualien and Taitung in eastern Taiwan to preserve combat power in the event of a mainland strike. However, the Liaoning carrier group will enable the PLA to target these cave bases.
Additionally, the Chinese Coast Guard carried out patrols around Taiwan, inspecting the waters surrounding the island. Notably, this marked the first time the Coast Guard’s 2901 Zhoutou-class ship was used in such patrols, as well as the first complete patrol of Taiwan’s entire island. The Coast Guard aims to prevent “Taiwan independence” elements from evading sanctions or escaping the island using civilian ships or other means during wartime.
Yuyuan Tantian, “环台岛巡航管控的三个突破 (The three breakthroughs in the patrol and control around Taiwan island),” China Media Group (a news media under the direct control of the Central Propaganda Department of the CCP), 14 October 2024. https://tinyurl.com/y3xyrmfp
On 14 October 2024, the Fujian Coast Guard organized a fleet of ships to conduct law enforcement inspections in the waters near Taiwan Island, Dongyin Island, and Matsu Island. According to exclusive information provided to this news source, this coast guard operation marked three significant breakthroughs.
Firstly, a total of six fleets were deployed, twice as many as in previous operations. Notably, this marked the first time the coast guard’s largest 10,000-ton vessel, No. 2901, was used for a mission targeting Taiwan. This ship is equipped with a 76mm caliber rapid-fire naval gun and can reach speeds of up to 25 knots. The 2901 ship has considerable advantages over other law enforcement vessels in the region.
Secondly, a diagram released by the coast guard illustrated the fleets sailing around the waters near Taiwan, expanding from the eastern region to encompass the entire island. However, the diagram did not provide a specific navigation route or detailed latitude and longitude for each point. Instead, arrows were used to broadly indicate the direction of the operation, implying that there would be no fixed route and that the fleets would operate in multiple areas.
Lastly, during this operation, the coast guard entered the waters near Matsu Island and penetrated restricted areas established by Taiwan authorities. This indicates that the coast guard has successfully completed law enforcement patrols around all of Taiwan’s outer islands and may implement regular patrols around Matsu Island in the future.
Notes:
[i] To watch the PRC’s Ministry of Defense (MOD) official response to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s “Double Tenth” speech and to the Eastern Theater Command exercise, see the MOD’s video post, Ministry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of China, 14 October 2024. https://tinyurl.com/yy3dervp
[ii] Li Chun, “What signal does the Liaoning aircraft carrier formation’s participation in ‘Joint Sword’ exercise send?” China News Network (China state news agency), 14 October 2024. https://tinyurl.com/rkfzbw4n
[iii] Zhao Xi, “东部战区演习演练封控台湾主要港口 (Eastern Theater Command exercises to seal off Taiwan’s main ports),” Beijing News (Newspaper for the Beijing Municipal Committee of the CCP), 14 October 2024. https://tinyurl.com/24r82nhw
[iv] To watch Senior Colonel Zhang Chi discuss and analyze ‘Joint Sword-2024B,’ see his CCTV7 interview, CCTV7 Military Report, 14 October 2024. https://tinyurl.com/nukx75wk
[v] Sean Lin, “4 Chinese coast guard ships expelled as PLA conducts drills near Taiwan,” Focus Taiwan (National news agency of the Republic of China), 14 October 2024. https://tinyurl.com/ypkcywaf
[vi] Helen Regan and Wayne Chang, “Taiwan condemns Chinese military drills around island as ‘unreasonable provocation’,” CNN, 14 October 2024. https://tinyurl.com/3a83zshc
OE Watch Insight:
CHN concluded its ‘Joint Sword-2024B’ military drills, expanding on ‘Joint Sword-2024A’ to strengthen blockade and isolation strategies against TWN and improve its ability to transition from exercises to invasion operations.
Image Information:
Image: The China Coast Guard posted a heart-shaped patrol route around Taiwan on their official Weibo account during the exercise, accompanied by the message, “The coast guard’s patrol is in the shape of loving you.”
Source: https://tinyurl.com/mwdk2ru7
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.