Tag Archives: Weapons

Sanctions Likely To Weaken Russian Arms Flow to Africa

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Ethiopian soldier holding an AK-47.

Ethiopian soldier holding an AK-47.

“The wide-ranging sanctions could have serious implications for Africa. Importantly, they could affect the continent’s ability to procure and maintain military hardware from Russia.”

Economic sanctions on Russia will likely jeopardize African countries’s ability to purchase new weapons and maintain existing stockpiles, according to the excerpted article from South African news source The Conversation Africa.  As the article points out, African countries import 49 percent of its military hardware from Russia, everything from battleships and fighter jets to handguns and rifles. 

The article notes five ways the sanctions on Russia are likely to impact African defense contractors and/or militaries.  First, Russia cannot deliver military hardware that is already on order.  Second, African militaries will struggle to maintain their vast inventories of Russian weapons because the supply of spare parts is now in jeopardy.  Third, various contractual obligations between Russian arms suppliers and African nations will not be met, possibly leaving some difficult issues for courts to decide.  Fourth, arms merchants from numerous countries will try to fill the void created by Russia’s absence.  However, since so much of Africa’s weaponry is Russian made, it will not be easy for many African countries to replace their Russian weapons with Western armaments.  Fifth and finally, the already present black market in arms transfers is likely to grow as Russia and possibly some African nations look to skirt the sanctions.

The absence of Russian weapons could also prove to be an incentive for African defense industries to increase the quantity of their output as well as try to manufacture larger and more complex weapons platforms.  As the article points out, Russia might even transfer some of its defense contracts to countries such as Nigeria and South Africa, which already have a enough industrial capacity to manufacture arms.

Source:

Moses B. Khanyile, “Sanctions against Russia will affect arms sales to Africa: the risks and opportunities,” The Conversation Africa (South African independent news source), 27 March 2022. https://theconversation.com/sanctions-against-russia-will-affect-arms-sales-to-africa-the-risks-and-opportunities-180038

 The wide-ranging sanctions could have serious implications for Africa. Importantly, they could affect the continent’s ability to procure and maintain military hardware from Russia.

The biggest buyers of armaments from Russia – and most long-standing importers – are Algeria, Angola, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco and Uganda.

In the past Russia has been astute in filling the void left by western countries. It did this in 2013 when the US cut off military aid and arms to Egypt after the military staged a coup. Suppliers such as Russia and France were happy to fill the gap.

The comprehensive sanctions imposed on Russia are likely to last beyond the current conflict. This implies that what may be regarded as ‘interim measures’ to fill a temporary void may end up being a long-lasting solution to Africa’s desire to produce its own military hardware for its own use, and also to reduce reliance on external suppliers.

African countries should therefore make a concerted effort to look towards defence companies on the continent for support. The African Union and South Africa, in particular, given its BRICS link, should play a central role in driving such a campaign.

Image Information:

Image: Ethiopian soldier holding an AK-47.
Source: U.S. government via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Afrimil-ethiopiansoldier.jpg
Attribution: Public Domain

More Wonder Weapons on Russia’s Drawing Board

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Peresvet Military Laser System.

Peresvet Military Laser System.

“The State Weapons Program (SWP) will focus on the creation of non-traditional types of weapons, including directed energy weapons, kinetic weapons, as well as artificial intelligence control systems and robotic systems.”

Despite military setbacks in Ukraine, Russia’s military industry (VPK) remains dedicated to developing military prowess, according to the excerpted article from the somewhat independent Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obezreniye.  Over the past decade, the Kremlin has focused on military modernization and improved combat capabilities, frequently demonstrating and asserting that the Russian armed forces are now a formidable power.  Perceived military superiority was likely a key factor underpinning the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine in late February 2022.  After the past couple months, however, maintaining this façade of military dominance has become more challenging.  

The article describes a recent meeting between President Putin and Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov, during which they discussed the upcoming State Weapons Program.  According to the article, Russia’s military industry remains on the cusp of “the creation of non-traditional types of weapons, including directed energy weapons, kinetic weapons, as well as artificial intelligence control systems and robotic systems.”  While the article omits the possible effects of Western economic sanctions on Russia’s military industry, it does provide examples of new weapons allowing Russia “to deliver massive strikes against enemy [Ukraine] infrastructure.”  The article also notes that “in December 2019, the world’s first really working combat laser system ‘Peresvet’ was put on combat duty,” but admits that there are questions surrounding its capabilities.  The article concludes by referring to developments in “robotics and artificial intelligence systems,” claiming that “large-scale work is underway in Russia to create ‘soulless’ combat units.”

Source:

“Разящая кинетика, направленное действие, искусственный интеллект (Breaking kinetics, directed action, artificial intelligence),” Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obezreniye (NVO-Independent Military Observer; somewhat independent), 7 April 2022. https://nvo.ng.ru/nvoweek/2022-04-07/2_1184_week.html

Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov promised the emergence of non-traditional weapons in Russia. The State Weapons Program (SWP) will focus on the creation of non-traditional types of weapons, including directed energy weapons, kinetic weapons, as well as artificial intelligence control systems and robotic systems. As reported on the Kremlin website, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov spoke about this at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. “The work on preparing the initial data for the next SAP has been completed, by mid-2023 it will be formed and submitted for approval.

…During the special operation in Ukraine, we are already talking about the effectiveness of using high-precision weapons. These are ship-based cruise missiles ‘Caliber,’ aviation Kh-555, Kh-101 and Dagger, which allow the country to deliver massive strikes against enemy infrastructure….

…However, Yuri Borisov speaks of a completely different level of weapons…. Another non-traditional direction could be laser weapons. In December 2019, the world’s first really working combat laser system ‘Peresvet’ was put on combat duty. There is still no exact understanding of whether it ‘burns or dazzles’ the optical instruments of air objects. But it is already obvious: the country is actively working on the development of this type of weapon….

Robotics and artificial intelligence systems are also a priority. If you look at the exposition of the exhibition-forum ‘Army’ in Kubinka near Moscow, it becomes obvious that large-scale work is underway in Russia to create ‘soulless’ combat units.

Image Information:

Image: Peresvet Military Laser System
Source: mil.ru
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0

Iran Busts Weapons and Ammunition Smuggling Ring

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“Two heavy shipments of weapons…were discovered.”

Iran has long had difficulty controlling illicit weaponry within its borders.  At the conclusion of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War, there was little if any organized demobilization or disarmament: conscripts simply returned home, often with their weapons.  Over subsequent years, successive Iranian administrations offered amnesties to enable citizens to return weapons without penalty as gun ownership and possession is, in most cases, a crime.  The fact that they have had to do so repeatedly suggests the ineffectiveness of their efforts.

Beyond the war-related and unaccounted for arms making their way into the public domain, Iran has long faced weapons smuggling from neighboring states.  The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has found it difficult to operate in southeastern and northwestern Iran, two regions populated both by ethnic and sectarian minorities and with borders drawn through inhospitable terrain.  The conflicts and drug trade in both Afghanistan and Iraq have increased arms smuggling opportunities in these border areas.  The excerpted article from Iran news media outlet Fars New Agency suggests Iran faces a problem with loose weapons in Khuzestan, the oil-producing region of Iran at the top of the Persian Gulf and adjacent to southern Iraq.  It relates successful operations against two alleged arms smuggling operations in the refinery city of Ahvaz and Karun county in Khuzestan Province, where authorities seized 87 illegal weapons.

While the excerpted article alludes to smugglers’ efforts to create “instability” in Iran, the article does not address possible motives nor possible connections to active terror cells in the area (See: “Iranian Government Details Ahvaz Terrorist Incidents,” OE Watch, November 2018).  It is unclear if the weapons stay in Khuzestan or are smuggled deeper into Iran.  If the former, it could suggest a vulnerability that unknown cells are smuggling weapons into Iran’s chief oil-producing region that is responsible for the majority of Iran’s foreign currency earnings.  The weapons in the photograph accompanying the story appear to be short-barreled shotguns commonly designated as riot, as well as breaching or tactical shotguns not designed or intended for hunting or other more pedestrian uses.

Source:

“Anhedam Do Band-e Qacheq-e Salah va Mohemat dar Khuzestan (Destruction of Two Arms and Ammunition Smuggling Gangs in Khuzestan),” Fars News Agency (media outlet close to the Islamic Republic’s security forces), 3 January 2022. https://www.farsnews.ir/khuzestan/news/14001013000043

According to the Fars News Agency in Ahvaz, the Khuzestan police commander issued a statement announcing: Police intelligence and security officers in the province, by means of superior intelligence, learned that two smuggling gangs had entered the cities of Ahvaz and Karun with the aim of creating insecurity in the country, conducted an operation, identified and destroyed them. In these comprehensive operations, two heavy shipments of weapons, including 87 weapons of war and hunting, and a significant amount of ammunition were discovered.