Tag Archives: Ukraine

A Russian Strategic Assessment of Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine

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“The result of the defeat of Nazi Ukraine will be a sharp drop in American and, in general, Western influence in the world…”

The accompanying excerpted article from Russian military and defense industry focused weekly Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer explains that Russian political and military leadership sees Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine as not just a local conflict between two nations, but as a front in a much larger war between Russia and the West.  The author, Konstantin Sivkov, is a retired naval officer and General Staff Academy graduate that served in the Center for Military-Strategic Research of the General Staff.  He is an expert on Russian military modernization and future warfare, the processes of armed struggle, the nature of modern wars and armed conflicts, and the organizational development of the Armed Forces.  Sivkov elaborates on how the Kremlin may perceive the big picture consequences for either succeeding or failing to achieve the campaign’s objectives.  For Russia, the success of this campaign will result not only in the imposition of its will on Ukraine, but also of its narrative on the world.  In short, the Kremlin sees the current conflict furthering one of two competing and mutually exclusive narratives: that of Russia or the West.

Source:

Konstantin Sivkov, “Украина – только начало: Геополитическим последствием спецоперации станет изменение (Ukraine is just the beginning: The geopolitical consequences of the special operation will change the entire view of the world),” Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer (weekly newspaper focusing on military and defense industry), 28 March 2022. https://vpk-news.ru/articles/66370

The special operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine continues to develop. Serious shifts are taking place in the nature of the operational use of the Russian group of forces, indicating a qualitative change in the course of the armed struggle. Under these conditions, the question arises: what will happen next, will the West stop its pressure on Russia and start negotiations, as many Russians hope, or vice versa – will the pressure become even more fierce, will new armed conflicts arise?…

…Thus, we can safely say that Russia is currently at war with the united West. This is a war of a different nature than those that took place in the 20th century. It cannot be declared, because in essence it is a classic hybrid one, from the side of the West…The scale of this hybrid war with the West suggests that it has all the hallmarks of a world war: the presence of opposing coalitions led by global centers of power that have entered directly into a military confrontation, albeit it just in the economic and information spheres, the resoluteness of goals, the use of all possible means of confrontation, refusal to comply with peacetime legal norms with the transition to the principle of military expediency practically on a global scale, drawing most countries of the world into the conflict according to the principle “if not with us, then against us”. That is, we are talking about the beginning of the third world war, which is still taking place in a refined hybrid form – the Western coalition conducts armed confrontation using its proxies — the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in a limited TVD [theater of operations] within Ukrainian territory, while conducting full-scale global economic and information warfare against our country.

…regardless of the outcome of the special operation in Ukraine, the war of the Western coalition against Russia will continue to escalate — the Western and global elites cannot stop without defeating Russia, or suffering a final defeat in this war. After all, at stake is the shape of the future world, of which there are only two variants. One proclaimed Klaus Schwab — the mouthpiece of the globalists. It has no place for states and national elites — the world is controlled by transnational corporations, and is actually privatized by them. An alternative to it is the concept of a multipolar world proclaimed by our president last year at the Davos forum and subsequent key international summits, where states remain the subjects of world politics, and there is no place for the global power of transnational corporations and the corresponding elites.

These two options are mutually exclusive. The victory of one of them means the inevitable collapse, death, at least political and economic sense, and the disappearance of the bearers and beneficiaries of the alternative option into history. Therefore, the struggle has an extremely tough character, when all means are used that can be used without risking their own immediate death. For Western and global elites, the central task on this path is the defeat and subjugation of Russia…

The defeat of Nazi Ukraine will mean the collapse of the entire strategy built by the West and the globalists over the last 20 years. The consequences of this defeat could be catastrophic for the globalists and have a geopolitical scale. Signs of this are already manifesting themselves today in the emerging rapprochement between the UAE and Saudi Arabia with Russia, China’s tough position on the Ukrainian issue, Venezuela’s demand to recognize Maduro as the country’s legitimate president as a condition for starting negotiations with the United States on oil supplies, and a number of other similar manifestations that indicate a loss of authority of the US and the West in the general world order. The result of the defeat of Nazi Ukraine will be a sharp drop in American and, in general, Western influence in the world, which will have the most severe consequences for the economy. Under these conditions, revenge for the Ukrainian defeat may become the main leitmotif of US-European geopolitics.

In turn, the termination of the special operation with the preservation of the current regime, even with a host of various treaty guarantees, will mean a military defeat for Russia. And the consequences of this will be very severe, primarily in the domestic socio-political situation. Such a step will have a negative impact on the international position and status of our country.Therefore, further escalation of tension in the world, especially military, will increase, and we can expect the next stage of the initial period of the third world [war]…

Kremlin Pushing False Narrative About Ukraine to Russian School Children

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“I think the teachers are wrong. We are told that the people of Ukraine were brainwashed, but it seems to me that we were brainwashed here.”

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has cleansed the Russian information space has been cleansed of almost every source daring to contradict the government-approved narrative.  This unanimity of thinking has now spread to the Russian educational system.  The first excerpt from the official news agency, TASS, describes a recently mandated school lesson developed by Russia’s Ministry of Education “dedicated to the liberation mission in Ukraine [which] was watched by more than 5 million schoolchildren.”  Among other topics, the lesson “explained the danger NATO poses” to Russia, while stressing that “the Russian military does not strike at cities, but disables only the military infrastructure, so nothing threatens the civilian population.” 

The second excerpt comes from an article from Russian-run opposition news source Novaya Gazeta, which was forced to suspend operations in late March due to censorship pressure.  The article recounts what happened to a 6th grader, when during this history lesson, he “expressed his position on the ‘special operation’” in Ukraine.  The student objected to the teacher’s claims that “Ukraine started [the war], and it will end when Ukraine capitulates,” also “that Nazism is flourishing among Ukrainians.”  After this classroom incident, the teacher apparently reported the student’s disturbance to the authorities.  As the article points out, a few days later, police visited the apartment of the student’s family, turning off the electricity and leaving a summons for an interrogation.  The article concludes by quoting the 6th grade student, who said, “I think the teachers are wrong. We are told that the people of Ukraine were brainwashed, but it seems to me that we were brainwashed here.”

Source:

“Открытый урок ‘Защитники мира’ посмотрели более 5 млн школьников (More than 5 million schoolchildren watched the open lesson ‘Defenders of Peace’),” TASS (official Russian news agency), 3 March 2022. https://tass.ru/obschestvo/13956837

The All-Russian open lesson of the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation, dedicated to the liberation mission in Ukraine, was watched by more than 5 million schoolchildren, the press service of the Institute for the Study of Childhood, Family and Education of the Russian Academy of Education reports.

“More than 5 million schoolchildren watched the open lesson. During the lesson, the audience was told in detail the background to today’s events and explained what danger NATO poses to our country. The lesson also helped to figure out how to distinguish truth from lies in the flow of information,” the report says…. As noted in the text, a video was shown during the lesson, which told about the common history of Russia and Ukraine, traditions, common holidays and cultural heritage….

On February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a special military operation in Ukraine in response to the appeal of the leaders of the Donbass republics for help. He stressed that Moscow’s plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories, the goal is the demilitarization and denazification of the country. As stated in the Russian Defense Ministry, the Russian military does not strike at cities, but disable only the military infrastructure, so nothing threatens the civilian population.

Source: Irina Lukyanova, “Диссидент из 6-го ‘А’ (Dissident from the 6th A),” Novaya Gazeta (independent Russian opposition news source), 9 March 2022.

https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2022/03/07/dissident-iz-6-go-a

At a history lesson, a Moscow schoolboy expressed his position on the “special operation.” After that, the police came to his house and turned off the electricity.

Kirill… is 12 years old, he studies in the 6th grade of a Moscow school. His mother Natalia says that the boy has Ukrainian roots, he attended the Ukrainian Cultural Center. What is happening now between Russia and Ukraine hurts him.

On Friday, March 4, sixth graders had their usual history lesson. Cyril himself tells about what happened:

– The teacher said: “Actually, this is not discussed with the sixth graders, but if you want to understand what is happening, then ask questions.” And I started asking questions. I asked: “Why did Putin start a war?” To this the teacher replied that it was a “special operation.” She said: “I don’t know exactly where our troops are now, but if they had stopped halfway, the Ukrainian aggression would have continued.” A small part of the class was on my side, they also asked questions….

After that, I asked the question, why did someone start this at all and when will it all end? She said that Ukraine started it, and it will end when Ukraine capitulates. She also told us that Nazism is flourishing among Ukrainians…

This opposition of the sixth graders did not go unnoticed….

The next day, Sunday, Kirill was at home alone. Mom left for work. At this time, two policemen began to knock on the apartment, but Kirill did not open it. They knocked for about half an hour, then turned off the electricity in the apartment, left a summons “to be called for an interrogation” under the door and left. The summons contains an illegibly written date of the interrogation and a threat to “subject to arrest” in case of non-appearance….Kirill calmly explains his position: “I think the teachers are wrong. We are told that the people of Ukraine were brainwashed, but it seems to me that we were brainwashed here….”

Iran Repositions Its Proxies in Syria as Russia Turns Focus to Ukraine

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Syrian Democratic Force soldiers conduct a patrol during a joint operation with U.S. Army Soldiers in Syria on May 8, 2021.

Syrian Democratic Force soldiers conduct a patrol during a joint operation with U.S. Army Soldiers in Syria on May 8, 2021.

“…Iran will not miss this opportunity to consolidate and expand its influence in various sectors, taking advantage of the regime’s need for assistance and support…”

Local media reports indicate that Iran is “repositioning” in Syria, perhaps seeking to take advantage of the Russian military’s focus on Ukraine.  A late February report by Syria-focused Turkish think tank Jusoor Center for Studies speculates that Russia’s focus on Ukraine may detract from its involvement in Syria, “and Iran will not miss this opportunity to consolidate and expand its influence in various sectors.”   The report mentions several signs of Iran’s repositioning in Syria, including increased activities and weapons transfers by Iran-backed militias in regime-controlled areas of the Syrian desert and the Middle Euphrates River Valley, near the border with Iraq.  Tensions were rising between Russian and Iranian proxies in Deir Ezzor Province during the build up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the accompanying excerpt from the Syrian opposition media source Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.  Russian airstrikes on ISIS positions in the desert have declined substantially since the start of the war in Ukraine, even as the group has ramped up its attacks in the Syrian desert, according to a report from the pro-Syrian opposition Lebanese news website al-Modon.  The Quds Brigade, Russia’s key ally in anti-ISIS efforts in the Syrian desert, withdrew precipitously to Damascus.  Meanwhile, local media reports claim several Iraqi militias have returned to Iraq and Iranian proxies in the Fatemiyoun Brigade have redeployed in the area.  The logic behind these movements remains murky, but the accompanying excerpt from the Saudi daily al-Sharq al-Awsat speculates that they relate to strengthening supply lines and transit corridors between Iran’s proxies in Iraq and Syria.

Source:

“6 مؤشرات على إعادة تموضع إيران في سورية

(Six indicators that Iran is repositioning in Syria),” Jusoor Center for Studies (Turkey-based think tank focused on Syria), 4 March 2022. https://tinyurl.com/2p8tnvv4

Since the beginning of 2022, Iran has begun to undertake a series of political, military, economic and security activities in coordination with the Syrian regime, which indicates its repositioning in Syria…

… the continuation of conflict in Ukraine may lead to a decline in Russia’s interest in Syria.  Iran will not miss this opportunity to consolidate and expand its influence in various sectors, taking advantage of the regime’s need for assistance and support…

Source:

“تصاعد ملحوظ في الحرب الباردة بين الجانبين الروسي والإيراني في محاولة لكسب ود أهالي القرى السبع شرقي الفرات

(Notable Escalation in the Cold War between Russia and Iran in an attempt to gain allegiance from the ‘Seven Villages’ east of the Euphrates),” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (Syrian opposition media source), https://tinyurl.com/2p85pm2x, 16 February 2022.

Recently, the competition between Russia and Iran has escalated in the countryside of Deir Ezzor governorate, specifically in the so-called “seven villages” under the influence of the Iranians and the regime east of the Euphrates, and the corresponding areas on the western bank of the river…

Source:

“إيران تتمدد في سوريا..إثر تراجع النشاط الروسي

(Iran expands in Syria… following decline in Russian activities),” al-Modon (pro-Syrian Lebanese news website), 12 March 2022. https://tinyurl.com/2p8v8v9y


Russian military activities throughout the Syrian territory have declined as the Russian attack on Ukraine enters its third week. At the same time, Iranian militias are sending military reinforcements to the city of Palmyra and its surroundings.

…“the Russian aerial bombardment on the Syrian desert is half of what it was before the war on Ukraine”…


On Friday, the Palestinian “Quds Brigade” militia withdrew from the city of Palmyra, located in the eastern countryside of Homs. Militia members left the city heading towards the governorate of Damascus. The motives for this withdrawal remain unknown and it is unclear whether they will return later. According to the sources of the Syrian Observatory, the Quds Brigade’s withdrawal came without prior warning or coordination with the regime’s security services located in Palmyra and its surroundings.

Source:

“مئات من ميليشيات إيران يغادرون سوريا إلى العراق 

(Hundreds of Iranian miliitas leave Syria for Iraq),” al-Sharq al-Awsat (influential Saudi daily), 7 March 2022. https://tinyurl.com/mrdd5r2m

Syrian activists reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard began withdrawing a large number of militia members of the Fatemiyoun Brigade (Afghani) and Iraqi (Shiite) militias from military sites in the areas of Palmyra and Sukhna, east of Homs, into Iraqi territory, through unauthorized crossings. Other fighters from the (Afghan Fatemiyoun) Brigade were deployed to new camps east of Palmyra. The sites in Homs countryside and a number of military vehicles and equipment were handed over to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The development was described by activists in the region as “remarkable,” at a time when (ISIS) launched repeated attacks against regime forces and Iranian militias in the Homs desert and Deir Ezzor, incurring losses in life and equipment.

Image Information:

Image:  Syrian Democratic Force soldiers conduct a patrol during a joint operation with U.S. Army Soldiers in Syria on May 8, 2021. 
Source: Spc. Isaiah J Scott, https://www.dvidshub.net/image/6705061/sdf-conducts-patrol-syria
Attribution: Public Domain

Invasion of Ukraine Spotlights Russia’s Information, Intelligence Operations in Latin America

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A GLONASS or GPS personal device for satellite positioning.

A GLONASS or GPS personal device for satellite positioning.

“All installation work was carried out by Russian personnel and their access is restricted.  A concrete wall topped with barbed wire blocks the way… there is no known anti-drug operation in which it has participated.”

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine brought new focus on Latin America, where Russia maintains influence, especially through the authoritarian regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba.  Russia’s economic footprint may be relatively small compared to China’s, but it operates robust propaganda networks with wide dissemination in the region.  Russia has also demonstrated an ability to interfere in the region’s elections, including in Colombia’s upcoming presidential election.  The excerpted article from center-left Colombian daily El Espectador reports that social media experts have noted an uptick in Russian bots shaping the political narrative in Colombia and pushing domestic debate to the political fringes.  Meanwhile, in Daniel Ortega’s Nicaragua, scrutiny remains focused on Russia’s highly capable intelligence-gathering satellites.  The excerpted article from Argentine center-left news website Infobae reports that Russia installed these satellites under the guise of assisting Nicaragua in its counternarcotics operations.  However, the site reports that Russia’s Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) has not participated in any known counternarcotics operations in its over five years of existence.  Russia’s position in Nicaragua complements its four stations in Brazil, three in Antarctica, and one in South Africa.  The country’s position in Latin America, bolstered by digital information operations and military hardware in countries such as Nicaragua and Venezuela, is extremely important as it contemplates potential measures against the United States for its punishing sanctions campaign.

Source:

“Estación satelital o espionaje?: cómo es la más misteriosa base rusa en América Latina (Satellite station or espionage?: what is the most mysterious Russian base in Latin America),” Infobae (Argentine news outlet generally considered center-left politically), 17 March 2022.  https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2022/03/17/estacion-satelital-o-espionaje-como-es-la-mas-misteriosa-base-rusa-en-america-latina/

From 2013 to date, Russia has installed nine ground satellite stations outside its borders, known as GLONASS (Global Navigation Satellite System, for its acronym in Russian).  The last one was installed in Nicaragua five years ago, and it is receiving attention when the world takes stock of the resources that Russia has in the face of a possible global war…  All installation work was carried out by Russian personnel and their access is restricted.  A concrete wall topped with barbed wire blocks the way…there is no known anti-drug operation in which it has participated.

Source:  “La influencia rusa en América Latina, ¿un riesgo para Colombia? (Russian influence in Latin America—a risk for Colombia?),” El Espectador (Colombian daily generally considered center-left politically), 1 March 2022.  https://www.elespectador.com/mundo/america/la-influencia-rusa-en-america-latina-un-riesgo-para-colombia/

There is a lot of talk about disinformation that comes from abroad.  Yes, that is a real threat.  Not so much because of the penetration of vote counting systems in democratic countries, but because of the manipulation of the media, because of disinformation propaganda, because of the use of algorithms to send messages that confuse the voter and that create alarmist opinions.

Image Information:

Image caption:  A GLONASS or GPS personal device for satellite positioning.
Source:  https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:GLONASS_or_GPS_personal_device_NPI-2.jpg
Attribution:  Wikimedia

Azerbaijan and Russia Seek Improved Relations

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Vladimir Putin and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev made statements for the press following Russian-Azerbaijani talks.

Vladimir Putin and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev made statements for the press following Russian-Azerbaijani talks.

“The parties, taking into account the high level of military-technical cooperation, interact on issues of equipping with modern weapons and military equipment, as well as in other areas in this area of ​​mutual interest.”

Azerbaijan has had a strained relationship with Russia for a number of years, but as the accompanying excerpted article from Azerbaijani semi-independent news agency Trend reports, President Aliyev and President Putin signed an agreement on 22 February 2022 to improve relations.  Several points of the agreement are worth noting, particularly since Aliyev and Putin signed it two days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The article includes the text of the agreement, which has over 40 areas of cooperation.  The first and second points state that both sides will respect each other’s internal and foreign affairs, and refrain from interfering in them.  Point number nine states that both governments will continue to make efforts to implement the agreements they signed with Armenia as part of the ceasefire agreement that ended the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War.  Since then, Azerbaijan has provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine as the two sides have had a good bilateral relationship.  Still, Azerbaijan has so far held a neutral position on the war.

Points 12 through 16 pertain to increasing security cooperation in various capacities, particularly numbers 14 and 15, which deal with working together to develop new weapons and equipment.  While it is unknown how much this security cooperation will develop, Russia will likely continue to provide Armenia with new weapons and equipment.  This could be a continuation of previous policy where Russia provided both Armenia and Azerbaijan with equipment as part of an effort to maintain influence with each during their conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Lastly, point number 25 states that both sides “will refrain from carrying out any economic activity that causes direct or indirect damage to the interests of the other Party.”  The government of Azerbaijan has reportedly suspended flights of its national airline to Russia due to insurance issues, but it has so far not carried out any economic sanctions against Russia as part of its neutral position on the conflict.  Considering the history of Azerbaijan’s strained relations with Russia, it is difficult to determine how much this relationship will develop, but the agreement marks a step closer to better relations at a time when the Russian government faces sanctions and poor relations with a number of countries around the world.

Source:

“Обнародован текст Декларации о союзническом взаимодействии между Россией и Азербайджаном (The published text of the Declaration on Allied Cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan),” Trend (semi-independent news agency in Azerbaijan), 22 February 2022.

https://www.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/3559098.html

…As Trend reports on Tuesday with reference to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, the Declaration says: “President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, having comprehensively considered the state and prospects for the development of Russian-Azerbaijani relations…Noting the importance of building a multipolar world based on international law and the central role of the United Nations in maintaining international peace and security, declare the following:

1. The Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan build their relations on the basis of allied interaction, mutual respect for independence, state sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of the state borders of the two countries, as well as adherence to the principles of non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, peaceful settlement of disputes and non-use of force or threat of force.

2. The Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan pursue an independent foreign policy aimed at protecting their national interests.

…

9. The Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan will continue to contribute in every possible way to efforts to implement the provisions of the statements of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the President of the Russian Federation dated November 9/10, 2020, January 11, 2021 and November 26, 2021, which served as the basis for strengthening stability and security, unblocking all economic and transport ties in the region and for normalizing relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia.

…

12. The Parties shall develop bilateral military-political cooperation that meets national interests and is not directed against third countries.

13. The parties will deepen interaction between the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan, including holding joint operational and combat training activities, as well as developing other areas of bilateral military cooperation.

14. The parties, taking into account the high level of military-technical cooperation, interact on issues of having modern weapons and military equipment, as well as in other areas in this area of ​​mutual interest.

15. The Parties will intensify efforts to create service centers for maintenance, repair, modernization of weapons and military equipment, as well as to organize joint production of various types of military products.

16. In order to ensure security, maintain peace and stability, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan may consider the possibility of providing each other with military assistance on the basis of the UN Charter, separate international treaties and taking into account the existing international legal obligations of each of the Parties.

…

25. The Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan will refrain from carrying out any economic activity that causes direct or indirect damage to the interests of the other Party.

Image Information:

Image: Vladimir Putin and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev made statements for the press following Russian-Azerbaijani talks
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Putin-Aliyev_joint_statements_(2022-02-22)_02.jpg
Attribution: CC 4.0

Russian Railroad Troops’ Trains Will Be Robotized

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“In addition to the current armored trains in the railroad troops (there are two railroad battalions in the separate railroad brigade in the Southern Military District), we have restored the “Amur” armored trains for special missions in zones of military conflict and restored the “Baikal” military escort trains with their cranes and supply of construction material.”

Railroads are the major means of material transport in Russia.  The Russian Railroad Troops are an established branch of the Russian ground forces.  Before the Second Chechen War, the railroad troops built a rail line into Dagestan that proved valuable to the successful Russian effort against Chechnya.  Railroad Troops build rail lines, rail bridges, switching yards, and tunnels.  They also operate armored trains that mount artillery, air defense systems, and other armaments.  The pro-government newspaper Izvestia sent two of its premier military reporters to interview the Chief of the Railroad Troops.  In addition to providing background on the railroad troops and their mission, he discussed new technical plans and training developed to incorporate robotics into the railroad troops.  In particular, he notes that military scholars are conducting research and development in the uses of robotic systems to support railroad troops.  Although not stated explicitly, the accompanying excerpts of the interview imply that Russian trains manned by Railroad Troops may play a role in the Ukraine invasion delivering essential combat equipment to the area of conflict.

Source:

Roman Kretsul and Alexi Ramm, “Роботизированные Системы Скоро Наудт Применение в Железнодорожных Войскак (Robotic systems will soon be adapted by Railroad Troops), Izvestia (Pro-Kremlin daily newspaper), 11 February 2022. https://iz.ru/1289710/roman-kretcul-aleksei-ramm/robotizirovannye-sistemy-skoro-naidut-primenenie-v-zheleznodorozhnykh-voiskakh

The railroad troops are overshadowed by other structures in the Ministry of Defense.  However, the importance of their work is not underestimated.  For example, in 2015, railroad troops built a bypass line around Ukraine.  General-Lieutenant Oleg Kosenkov, Chief of the Railroad Troops Directorate in the Ministry of Defense sat for an Izvestia interview that covered their experience in the construction of the Baikal-Amur Magistral (BAM) railroad and discussed the new technical plans and training developed to incorporate robotics. 

The public knows little about the specific details of the railroad troops.  What are they for and what missions do they do?

Railroad troops are special troops designated for the restoration, blocking, mine removal, technical oversight and construction of railroad lines.  They improve their stability and capacity, construct feeder lines for railroad bridges and junctures, operate and install floating railroad bridges and support the Armed forces of our country.

In recent years, the Army has undergone serious reforms.  Did these have an impact on the railroad troops? 

Under the direction of the Minister of Defense, Army General Sergei Shoigu, we reorganized the structure of the railroad troops on a different vector-from a massive, one might say overdone structure to a smaller, more manageable and optimized structure.  We formed 13 support centers for mobilization deployment.  Their primary mission is to accumulate, maintain and upgrade weapons, military and specialized technology and material items; support mobilization support bases; and to provide administrative points for the receipt of mobilization resources which conduct priority measures.  During this period, we formed four bases for construction material. 

In 2015, we undertook more signification measures for organizing construction.  As a result, the separate railroad brigade (the primary railroad troop organization) gained the status of a formation consisting of separate military regiments.  The railroad troops then consisted of 10 formations with 58 ready separate military regiments.  At the end of 2015, the Ministry of Defense formed the scientific-technical committee for the railroad troops.  Later, the railroad troop’s scientific-technical testing center formed. 

In 2015, the railroad troops built the Zhyravka-Millerovo stretch in southwest Russia.  What experience did they receive from this construction?

The president gave the mission to the Ministry of Defense to build the railroad bypass around Ukraine.  They built a dual-track electrified railroad section for the South-East and Northern Caucasus railroad using troops from the Southern, Western and Central Military Districts.  The project involved some 1,700 personnel and 700 trucks, engineering and specialized equipment.  In a short period, the railroad troops carried out a major project to build a permanent new railroad line….

Last year the railroad troops worked on the reconstruction of the Baikal-Amur Magistral (BAM).  Did this present difficulties or was it routine and orderly?

In April 2021, the railroad troops began laying a section of double track from Ulak to the Fevralsk Station on the Far Eastern railroad and set about reconstructing their assigned section of the BAM.  It turns out this was one of the most difficult sections.  

At this time, five railroad troops’ formations with their component of specialized military units and subunits are working to complete this project.  They are quartered in small garrisons of contemporary modular housing in accordance with the established norms for food and housing.  During the course of four seasons, we studied the influence of climate during the construction process.  And you may believe that, having studied the experience of the earlier construction of the magistral, the forces have already finished a significant portion of the work.  You may say that slowly we are beginning to master the harsh taiga….

We always hear how the Navy, Aviation, and the Aerospace Forces receive the newest military technology.  Are the railroad troops also receiving new, breakthrough technology?

…Over the past several years, the railroad troops units have received technology for transporting swimming railroad bridges, for measuring ballast for railroad beds and independent movement.  In the future, they plan to have new track and railroad tie layers and also improvements in wheeled technology for rail.  Further, military scholars are conducting research and development in the uses of robotic systems to support railroad troops.  I believe that they will soon be ours for use.

Are there any plans for the railroad troops to build new sections of track, bridges and tunnels?

Yes, we are working with the Russian Federation Ministry of Transport and the government-owned Joint Stock Company “Russian Railroads”.  We are cooperating on using the railroad troops for new construction and reconstruction.  Currently we are working on a section of track as part of the third stage of developing a rail line from the BAM to the Eastern Military Training area.

Will your forces receive new specialized trains or locomotives?  Are you looking into developing a modern analog to the armored train or something similar?In addition to the current armored trains in the railroad troops (there are two railroad battalions in the separate railroad brigade in the Southern Military District), we have restored the “Amur” armored train for special missions in zones of military conflict and restored the “Baikal” military escort train.  Both can carry cranes and supplies of construction material.  There is no analog to these specialized mobile trains.  Running these trains on railroads provides technical reconnaissance, mine clearing and removal of damaged railroad debris, transportation for personnel and accompanying military echelons.  These trains are always in the “hot” (ready -not damped) mode ready to act under any circumstance.  Within an hour they must be ready to leave the station on the start of a long journey to a designated place.

Kremlin Recasting Ukraine Invasion as “Third Patriotic War”

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“It is noteworthy that Russia is very well prepared for this war, including on the economic front…” 

Stiff Ukrainian resistance and strong support from the West, including economic sanctions, military supplies, and humanitarian aid, have hampered the Kremlin’s plans.  As the conflict drags on, the Kremlin’s strategic objectives in Ukraine could change, and along with them, the narrative surrounding the conflict.  The accompanying excerpt from an article in the popular pro-Kremlin source Vzglyad reflects the start of such a transformation.  It asserts that Russians now perceive the “special operation” in Ukraine as “a local episode of the war between Russia and the United States” or “as the third Patriotic war, but in a different format.”

As the second source from Youtube indicates the Vzglyad article is actually a synopsis of a video from a pro-Kremlin blogger that has gathered more than 3 million views since its release in early March.  The author, Yuri Podolyaka, claims that the so-called “special operation” in Ukraine has resulted in “an unprecedented patriotic upsurge” among Russians, and that “Russia is very well prepared for this war, including on the economic front.”  He goes on to assert that “the imposition of sanctions suggests that the West does not understand the Russian mentality and how Russian society lives.”  Russians are happy to see that the elite are being punished.  The author concludes by repeating Kremlin claims that Russia invaded Ukraine “to protect people from bullying and genocide by the Kiev regime,” and that “Russia prevented the appearance of nuclear weapons at the disposal of the Kiev regime.”  This global struggle, the author proclaims, will “result in a new world.  The old familiar world will no longer exist.” 

Source:

Rafael Fakhrutdinov, “Юрий Подоляка: Россия подготовилась к войне с США за передел мира (Yuri Podolyaka: Russia prepared for war with the United States for the redivision of the world),” Vzglyad (popular, pro-Kremlin source), 10 March 2022. https://vz.ru/news/2022/3/10/1147846.html

“Russians perceive the current Russian special operation in Ukraine as a local episode of the war between Russia and the United States, as the third Patriotic war, but in a different format,” said popular Ukrainian video blogger Yuriy Podolyaka, who is based in Sevastopol.  “Events in the information and psychological war are no less important than what is happening now on the fronts in Ukraine….  But what I really see in Russia is an unprecedented patriotic upsurge.” 

According to him, many Russians perceive the current special operation of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine as necessary – to liberate the Ukrainian state from the clique that unleashed the war in 2014. “Ukrainians preferred not to notice the massacre for eight years. And war tends to come to you if you don’t notice it. However, what is happening in Ukraine is only a local moment of the war between Russia and the United States for the redivision of the world. And the main events are yet to come. They will occur after the end of the operation in Ukraine,” the expert is sure.

According to him, the world is waiting for a powerful economic crisis. “It is noteworthy that Russia is very well prepared for this war, including on the economic front…. That is why Russians are not afraid of either the dollar exchange rate or other factors. Yes, the Russians will live financially worse, like the rest of the world. But this is not the effect that the West was counting on,” the analyst emphasized.

The blogger noted: The West expected that the Russians, accustomed to living well, with a deterioration in their financial situation, would begin to fight with the authorities. “The imposition of sanctions suggests that the West does not understand the Russian mentality and how Russian society lives…. 

“I want all Ukrainians and Russians to understand that the Ukrainian operation is just an episode in the struggle, the result of which will be a new world. The old familiar world will no longer exist…” Podolyaka predicted.

“…Recall that Vladimir Putin, in his address on the morning of February 24, directly outlined one of the main goals of the special operation – to protect people from bullying and genocide by the Kiev regime. In addition, Russia prevented the appearance of nuclear weapons at the disposal of the Kiev regime. The Supreme Commander directly indicated that Moscow would not allow such a development of events.”

Source: Yuri Podolyaka, “Война на Украине: а что в России – переворот, на который рассчитывают в Киеве, он будет или нет? (War in Ukraine: what about in Russia – a coup that Kyiv is counting on, will it happen or not?),” YouTube, 10 March 2022. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWpPW77tvHg

…The Third World War began in 2014, and since then, Russia has been preparing to fight—particularly on the economic front….

…The fight today in Ukraine is not about Ukraine, but rather it’s a fight with the US which will determine how the world is divided….

…Western experts made the fatal mistake of believing that economic sanctions, which will cause Russian people to live poorly, would somehow prompt a revolt against the authorities…. They simply don’t understand the Russian mentality…. They are happy to see the oligarchs punished, happy to see Western companies leave the country… Western economic pressure has forced the Kremlin leadership to make fundamental economic reforms which the people have been clamoring for…

…The only thing Russians worry about are large personnel losses in Ukraine….  

Senegal and Algeria Opposed to Their Citizens Fighting in Ukraine

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Ukrainian aviation unit. DR Congo.

Ukrainian aviation unit. DR Congo.

“Like their Algerian counterparts, the Senegalese authorities requested the Ukrainian embassy to immediately withdraw the call to recruitment without delay.”

Ukrainian soldiers have taken part in peacekeeping operations in Africa in recent years, and now Ukraine is urging African nationals to travel to Ukraine to fight Russian.  The excerpted French-language article in tsa-algerie.dz, which covers affairs in Francophone countries from an Algerian perspective, discussed the Algerian and Senegalese governments’ negative reactions to the prospects of their citizens fighting in Ukraine.  According to the article, the Ukrainian Embassies in Algeria and Senegal issued statements on Facebook calling on these countries’ citizens to join the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces to resist Russian aggression.  In response, the Algerian government demanded that Ukraine remove the post on grounds that it violates the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.  Senegal relayed the same message to Ukraine, while acknowledging that 36 Senegalese citizens had registered to fight.  Senegal is wary of foreign fighters given the experience of its nationals as foreign fighters with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).  France24.com, for example, reported in the excerpted passage from 2016 that Senegalese had become influential in ISIS in both Libya and Syria.  Although the circumstances and threats are different with the situation in Ukraine, Senegal, like Algeria, remains steadfastly against allowing the participation of its nationals in foreign conflicts.

Source:

“Le grave dérapage de l’ambassade ukrainienne en Algérie (The serious mistake of the Ukrainian embassy in Algeria),” tsa-algerie.dz, 4 March 2022. https://www.tsa-algerie.dz/le-grave-derapage-de-lambassade-ukrainienne-en-algerie/

To all foreigners “who wish to join the resistance to the Russian occupiers and protect world security,” Ukrainian leaders offer you “to come to our country and join the ranks of the Territorial Defense Forces…,” the appeal read. The message was taken down after the Algerian foreign ministry ordered the Ukrainian embassy to delete it.

This message was also relayed by the Ukrainian Embassy in Senegal. The Ukrainian ambassador in Dakar confirmed the existence of the call while confirming the registration of 36 volunteer candidates. Like their Algerian counterparts, the Senegalese authorities requested the Ukrainian embassy to immediately withdraw the call to recruitment without delay.

Source: “Who are the Senegalese men joining the Islamic State group?,” france24.com, 1 February 2016. https://observers.france24.com/en/20160201-senegal-jihadist-islamic-state

Senegal is on edge after jihadist attacks have swept West Africa in the past few months, striking Mali in December 2015 and previously quiet Burkina Faso in January 2015. Senegal is worried that it might be the jihadists’ next target. In a sweep aimed at cracking down on insecurity, Senegal arrested 900 people in the cities of Dakar and Thies last month. Although most of these arrests were not on terror-related suspicions, the police said that the raids were carried out because of the terrorist threat.

Image Information:

Image: Ukrainian aviation unit. DR Congo.
Source: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukrainian_aviation_unit._DR_Congo_(26858301702).jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

African Leaders Take Cautious Approach to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

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Putin with Faustin Archange Touadera, President of the Central African Republic, whose nation has used Russia’s Wagner Group on several occasions, including to prevent an overthrow of the government.

Putin with Faustin Archange Touadera, President of the Central African Republic, whose nation has used Russia’s Wagner Group on several occasions, including to prevent an overthrow of the government.

“African countries are treading carefully in the Russia-Ukraine war to protect their national interests even as they defend the rights of Africans trapped in war zones.”

Many African leaders are choosing their words carefully when discussing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  As the accompanying excerpted article from the East African explains, these leaders’ cautious approach is based on the close relationships their countries have with Russia.  This is especially evident in the area of arms sales.  Many African nations purchase their military hardware from Russian arms dealers.  For example, Ethiopia’s entire fleet of jetfighters, 20 Sukhoi-27s and nine Mig-23s, are from Russia.  Russia supplies three quarters of Uganda’s combat helicopters.  Across Africa it is not just aircraft, but rather a wide range of military materiel, including small arms such as the ubiquitous AK-47.

As the article explains, Russia has also fostered military alliances with Mali, the Sudan, Mozambique and other countries facing insurgencies or political instability, which has tempered still more African leaders’ reactions to the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The Wagner Group, a Kremlin-linked paramilitary force, helped quash an attempt to overthrow the government in the Central African Republic.  The appreciation for these Russian interventions, combined with a sense among many Africans that their nations should remain neutral with regard to European problems, contributes to the lack of enthusiasm some African leaders have for denouncing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Reports of African students fleeing Ukraine only to be subjected to extreme racism in Europe may have exacerbated these concerns.

Some African leaders are not only refusing to condemn Russia but are actually praising it.  The most prominent example of such behavior comes from LTG Kainerugaba, Commander of Ugandan Land Forces, who is also President Musevini’s son.  While Uganda abstained from a UN vote condemning Russian aggression, citing the African country’s nonaligned status, Kainerugaba claimed Putin was right and that a majority of non-whites support Russia.  Even Senegal, which has a long history of receiving military assistance from the West, abstained from the UN vote to condemn Russian aggression.

Source: Aggrey Mutambo, “National interests prevail as African leaders tread carefully on Ukraine crisis,” The East African (African-based media company), 6 March 2022. https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/national-interests-african-leaders-careful-ukraine-crisis-3738398

African countries are treading carefully in the Russia-Ukraine war to protect their national interests even as they defend the rights of Africans trapped in war zones.

Senegalese President Macky Sall, chair of the African Union and the African Union Commission chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat said they were “particularly disturbed” by reports that some Africans had been turned away at European borders while trying to leave the war-wracked country.

Save for Kenya, Eastern African states have stayed away from vigorously commenting on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the racism in its wake has angered Africans.

The United Nations, which operates a huge fleet of Russian fixed-wing and helicopter transports, will not be spared the sanctions. Also, hard-hit will be a helicopter overhaul and maintenance repair facility that Uganda jointly owns with Russia’s Pro-heli International Services, that was launched by President Museveni in late January. The facility was among others targeting the UN missions in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan’s Darfur region, in which a substantial number of UN transport helicopters operate.

“Outside of the Central African Republic, which openly sympathises with Moscow, other countries have largely chosen a middle plan in this conflict, even as they share (Kenya’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Dr Martin) Kimani’s sentiments on the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. They are, however, united on the plight of Africans in Ukraine,” he said.

Image Information:

Image: Putin with Faustin Archange Touadera, President of the Central African Republic, whose nation has used Russia’s Wagner Group on several occasions, including to prevent an overthrow of the government.
Source: Mikhail Metzel/Kremlin Pool/Wikimedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vladimir_Putin_%26_Faustin_Touadera_-_2019.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Some Latin American Countries Responsive to Russian Entreaties To Remain Silent on Ukraine War

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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.

“Russia said in December that escalating tensions over Ukraine could lead to a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis, when the world teetered on the brink of nuclear war.”

Many countries in Latin America opted to say little about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine because of their reticence to ruffle their relationships with Russia.  This relative silence is the result of persistent Russian attempts to cultivate influence with anti-Western Latin American leaders in the United States’ backyard as a way to counterbalance Western actions in what the Kremlin considers its sphere of influence.  Center-left Argentine news outlet Infobae reports that Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov visited the region and met with Russia’s most important allies in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba.  Borisov promised closer relations and greater “strategic depth” to Russia’s security cooperation.  In turn, the regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba have parroted Russian talking points about NATO and sanctions.  Further, Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro and Argentina’s president Alberto Fernández both visited Putin in Moscow shortly before the war, according to Spain’s politically left-leaning main daily El País.  Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov recently stated that Russia had the ability to deploy forces and equipment to Latin America through its security and cooperation agreements.  Russia’s pattern of outreach to Latin America is not new since its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022: similar diplomatic and military visits presaged Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 (then President Dmitri Medvedev) and its invasion of Crimea in 2014 (Putin himself).

Source:

“Rusia continúa estrechando lazos con las dictaduras latinoamericanas (Russia continues to strengthen ties with Latin American dictatorships),” Infobae (Argentine news outlet generally seen as center-left politically), 19 February 2022.  https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2022/02/19/rusia-continua-estrechando-lazos-con-las-dictaduras-latinoamericanas-el-viceprimer-ministro-de-putin-visito-cuba/ 

Borisov arrived on the island after visiting Nicaragua and Venezuela, Russia’s key allies in Latin America, and said Russia would also deepen bilateral ties with the two countries…Russia said in December that escalating tensions over Ukraine could lead to a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis, when the world teetered on the brink of nuclear war…Cuban dictator Miguel Díaz-Canel discussed coordinating a ‘strategic partnership’ with Putin in January, as tensions began to rise in Ukraine.

Source: “Ucrania, una guerra incómoda para Brasil y Argentina (Ukraine, an uncomfortable war for Brazil and Argentina),” El País (Spain’s main daily generally considered politically-left), 1 March 2022.  https://elpais.com/internacional/2022-03-02/ucrania-una-guerra-incomoda-para-brasil-y-argentina.html 

Bolsonaro’s Brazil and Fernández’s Argentina have been trying to remain neutral since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.  Only eight days had passed after the Brazilian president was received in Moscow by Vladimir Putin and twenty since a similar visit by the Argentine.  Both Latin American presidents then highlighted the good relations they maintain with the Kremlin.  But the war has turned everything upside down.  The diplomatic tension leaves little room for the grays, and both Bolsonaro and Fernández, located at the ideological poles, face domestic problems due to their international positioning.

Image Information:

Image caption:  Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.
Source:  Kremlin.ru via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vladimir_Putin_%26_Nicol%C3%A1s_Maduro_in_Tehran,_24_November_2015.jpg
Attribution:  CC BY 4.0