Tag Archives: Russia

Russian Orthodox Church Strengthening Support for Ukraine Invasion

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Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces.

Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces.

“…It is worth recalling that shortly before the start of the special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, Hilarion said: “I am personally afraid of war. And I think that we must do everything to ensure that there is no war, no big war, no small war, no world war, no local war.”

Given its close alignment with the Kremlin, it is not surprising that the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) has adopted a “you are either with us or against us” philosophy and has openly endorsed the so-called “special military operation” (SMO) in Ukraine.  (For additional background, see “Religious Blessing for the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine,” OE Watch, May 2022). The accompanying excerpt from the semi-independent Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta describes some recent changes in the ROC’s hierarchy and organization, which reflects its growing militancy.  The article begins by recounting the recent transfer of high-level ROC cleric Metropolitan Hilarion, who had spoken out against the conflict in Ukraine.  Drawing an analogy to the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917, Hilarion reminded his flock about “Rasputin [who] was an ardent opponent of Russia’s entry into the war.  He warned the tsar that if Russia entered the war, it would threaten the whole country with catastrophic consequences.” 

The article also provides an update regarding Orthodox believers in Ukraine who, up until last month, pledged allegiance to the Russian patriarch.  They now have announced their intention to split from the ROC, which has caused consternation in Moscow.  In the past, the clerics of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchy (UOC-MP) enjoyed some level of independence from the church leadership in Moscow, but they will now fall under the “direct canonical and administrative subordination to the Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia and the Holy Synod of the Russian Orthodox Church.”  The article also discusses the restoration “of protopresbyter of the military and naval clergy,” who will serve as the chief liaison between the ROC and the military.  In the past, “this chief military priest was equated with a general.” 

The growing proximity of the ROC and the military, according to the excerpt, “is not surprising.  After the start of the invasion of Ukraine, the patriarch visited the main military church in Kubinka several times and delivered sermons there on the importance of military service.”  These religious developments, whereby the ROC is losing influence in Ukraine, may provide additional incentives for the Kremlin to gain control over the entire country. 

Source:

Andrei Melnikov, “РПЦ переходит на военное положение (The Russian Orthodox Church moves into martial law),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (semi-independent Russian media outlet), 7 June 2022.  https://www.ng.ru/faith/2022-06-07/1_8455_general.html

…The synod of the Russian Orthodox Church at a meeting on Tuesday put an end to the ambiguous position of the church against the backdrop of a military special operation in Ukraine. No longer bound by obligations to its Ukrainian believers, the Moscow Patriarchate is bringing its own configuration into line with the limits of influence of the Russian state. The synodals made revolutionary decisions: they removed Metropolitan Hilarion (Alfeev), who was responsible for “pacifism” in the Russian Orthodox Church, from the post of chairman of the Department for External Church Relations (DECR), and at the same time strengthened the spiritual and patriotic component of church policy….

…It is worth recalling that shortly before the start of the special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, Hilarion said: “I am personally afraid of war. And I think that we must do everything to ensure that there is no war, no big war, no small war, no world war, no local war. There are a lot of forces that want to drag us into some kind of war, and they are not only outside our country, but also inside it. There are those who want to rattle weapons, who say: they say, we are invincible, invincible, we will repulse any enemy. In March, he suddenly began to justify Grigory Rasputin. “Rasputin was an ardent opponent of Russia’s entry into the war. And he warned the tsar that if Russia entered the war, it would threaten the whole country with catastrophic consequences….”

The rejection of soft church power was also reflected in other decisions of the Synod of June 7. The ROC responded in a peculiar way to the recent declaration of independence by the Ukrainian Orthodox Church – mainly with the votes of those participants in the Council of the UOC on May 27, who are located on the territory of the country controlled by the Kyiv authorities. For a long time, starting from the Russian spring of 2014, the Moscow Patriarchate maintained demonstrative independence from the political situation and left the three eparchies of Crimea under the jurisdiction of the UOC.

In response to the appeals of His Grace Metropolitan Platon of Theodosius and Kerch, Metropolitan Lazar of Simferopol and Crimea, Bishop Alexy of Dzhankoy and Razdolnensky, proceeding from the need to maintain an effective canonical and administrative connection with the central church authorities for the successful flow of church life in the dioceses served by the aforementioned bishops, taking into account the practical the impossibility of regular communication of these dioceses with the Kievan Metropolia, to accept the Dzhankoy, Simferopol and Feodosiya eparchies into direct canonical and administrative subordination to the Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia and the Holy Synod of the Russian Orthodox Church, – says in synodal journals…. 

…Finally, the Synod, in a sense, turned history back: it restored the position of protopresbyter of the military and naval clergy, which had been abolished in 1918….  The chief military priest was equated with a general. ….

The attention of the Synod to the military theme is not surprising. After the start of the special operation in Ukraine, the patriarch visited the main military church in Kubinka several times and delivered sermons there on the importance of military service. It was these sermons that became the basis for calls for sanctions against the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, because he allegedly “blessed” the special operation in Ukraine. 

Image Information:

Image: Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Cathedral_of_the_Russian_Armed_Forces
Attribution: CCA 4.0 Intl

Russia’s “Terminator” System in Ukraine To Inform Tactics

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Tank Support Combat Vehicle (BMPT).

Tank Support Combat Vehicle (BMPT).

Tank Support Combat Vehicle (BMPT).

Tank Support Combat Vehicle (BMPT).

“In terms of firepower, according to experts, one “Terminator”, armed with cannons, rockets and machine guns, surpasses two motorized rifle platoons.”

The accompanying excerpted article from Russian government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta  describes the capabilities of Russia’s Tank Support Combat Vehicle (BMPT[RG1] ) and how it has been employed during Russia’s 2022 invasion of the Ukraine.  Also known as the ‘Terminator’ for its intent to destroy infantryman wielding antitank weapons, the BMPT concept has been in development since Soviet times.  Despite Russia’s reportedly successful use of the system during the Syrian campaign and the fact that a few foreign militaries (Kazakhstan and Algeria) have adopted it, there is currently only one BMPT company in the Russian Ground Forces.  According to the article, there is a debate about possibly rebranding the system by changing the name from ‘Tank Support Combat Vehicle’ to ‘Fire Support Combat Vehicle’ because the system can also support mounted and dismounted infantry formations.  The perceived success or failure of the BMPT in the Donbas will likely cause Russia to more widely field the BMPT, or abandon the program entirely.  If successful, the heavy combat conditions that BMPT is encountering will allow Russian tacticians and planners to determine the best tactics and force structure for the BMPTs integration with the Russian Ground Forces.

Source:

Sergey Ptichkin, “ВС РФ впервые применили в ходе спецоперации БМПТ ‘Терминатор’ (The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation used the BMPT ‘Terminator’ for the first time during the special operation),” Rossiyskaya Gazeta (official Russian government newspaper), 18 May 2022. https://rg.ru/2022/05/18/vs-rf-vpervye-primenili-v-hode-specoperacii-bmpt-terminator.html

…BMPTs, together with tank platoons, are involved in the destruction of Ukrainian positions, armored vehicles, and crews of anti-tank missile systems. It is also said that the participation of the BMPT in the course of the special operation will make it possible to finally form the tactics for the use of these vehicles and determine their place in the armored groups…

In terms of firepower, according to experts, one “Terminator”, armed with cannons, rockets and machine guns, surpasses two motorized rifle platoons.  Based on the Afghan experience, the first BMPT was developed, which received the name “Terminator” at the beginning of the 21st century. It was actively promoted by the head of the Main Armored Directorate, Colonel General Sergei Maev. But even his authority was not enough for the accelerated delivery of a machine to the troops, which really has no analogues in the world.

Perhaps the situation will now change, and the BMPT will go into mass production. By the way, an idea to slightly change the name of the system was put forward, to designate the “Terminators” as fire support combat vehicles.  Because the “Terminator” is capable of supporting not only tanks, but also infantry, especially those fighting in cities.

Here are just the main features and benefits of this machine. Since the BMPT was created on the basis of the T-72[RG1] , it has a tank’s armored protection — it is difficult to knock it out. It has optical, television and thermal imaging sites for observation and aiming. It sees at night as well as during the day…The BMPT is armed with two quick-firing 30 mm 2A42 cannons and four Ataka missiles. The 45-degree elevation angle of the missile armament and cannons makes it possible to conduct effective combat operations in mountainous terrain and in urban areas…

Image Information:

Image: Tank Support Combat Vehicle (BMPT)
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/Military/Rehearsal-in-Alabino-17-April-2019/i-chgNPrQ/0/5070c462/X2/Rehearsal17April2019-0071-X2.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Image: Tank Support Combat Vehicle (BMPT)
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/Military/Rehearsal-in-Alabino-17-April-2019/i-MHbnq66/0/ce5af375/X2/Rehearsal17April2019-0072-X2.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Russia Tests Palantin Electronic Warfare System in Ukraine

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Palantin Electronic Warfare System.

Palantin Electronic Warfare System.

The accompanying excerpted article from Russia’s official government newspaper, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, describes some of the capabilities of the Palantin electronic warfare (EW) system and how it has been employed during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—the first reported use of the system in combat.  According to the article, its most important advantage “lies in the ability to combine the electronic warfare systems such as [of] the “Moskva”, “Zhitel,” and “Judoist” into a “single working network.”  The Russian military personnel featured in the article claim that the Palantin EW system “disables reconnaissance drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” and “jams cellular communication and Internet sources at Ukrainian command posts,” but other, more objective open sources have not confirmed how effective the system has proven on the Ukrainian battlefield.

The Russian Ground Forces have a three-tiered system for EW.  At the maneuver brigade and division level, each has an EW company that focuses on tactical tasks.  At the combined arms Army level, each has an EW battalion that focuses on operational-tactical tasks.  At the Military District level, each has an EW brigade that focuses on strategic-level tasks.  At the tactical level, the Borisoglebsk-2. EW system is the primary and latest EW system for maneuver brigade/division level EW companies, while the Palantin EW system is the primary and latest system for combined arms Army level EW battalions.

Source:

Yuri Gavrilov, “Видео: Как работает в боевой обстановке комплекс РЭБ “Палантин” (Video: How the Palantin electronic warfare system works in a combat situation),” Rossiyskaya Gazeta (official Russian government newspaper), 4 June 2022.  https://rb.gy/4fjl6

The Palantin electronic warfare system disables reconnaissance drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, jams cellular communication and Internet sources at Ukrainian command posts, without disturbing the civilian communications infrastructure…The electronic warfare system independently detects enemy drones, intercepts their control signal, and interferes with them. As a result, the UAV loses contact with the operator on the ground.

The commander of the jamming company, Sergei, says that the specialists of his unit have mastered modern radio-electronic equipment without any problems. “Palantin” is the newest system, it is extremely easy to operate and maintain. The electronic warfare system provides automatic detection and suppression of radio communication lines…

A few words about what the Palantin-K electronic warfare system consists of.  It is mounted on four-axle KamAZ vehicles, and is designed to suppress existing and future radio communication systems, as well as to conduct signals intelligence. The capabilities of the system make it possible to “dazzle” enemy electronic systems in the ultrashort-wave [very high frequency (VHF)] and short-wave [high frequency (HF)] bands.

In addition, the “Palantin” can interfere with navigation systems and disable an air defense radars or a command and control systems…this system can deprive the enemy of cellular and trunking communications. Its most important advantage lies in the ability to combine the electronic warfare systems such as the “Moskva”, “Zhitel” and “Judoist” into a single working network… Experts say that “Palantin” is 2-3 times superior to Russian EW systems of the previous generation and currently has no analogues in combat capabilities in any army of leading foreign states.

Image Information:

Image: Palantin Electronic Warfare System
Source: Russian Ministry of Defense, https://rb.gy/4fjl6
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Russian Media Source Blames United States for Russian “Brain Drain”

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“Will the United States be able to weaken Russia by poaching its best specialists?”

An increasing number of Russians, often among the country’s best and brightest, have emigrated in recent years as the Kremlin’s domestic policies have become more repressive.  These self-exiled Russians believe they can better realize their potential in countries with a more transparent political system, better legal guarantees, and greater opportunities to exercise personal freedom.  This “brain drain” has become an even more acute problem for the Kremlin since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  According to the opposition media source Meduza, nearly 150,000 peoplehave emigrated from Russia since 24 February.  Rather than examining the domestic reasons for leaving Russia, some pro-Kremlin media blame the United States for this exodus.  Citing a recent Chinese article, the second excerpt from the semi-independentsite Nezavisimaya Gazeta claims that the United States has “created a brain drain trend using it as a tool to weaken Russia.”  According to the author, “Washington is trying to facilitate the transfer to the United States of the best Russian specialists with experience in semiconductors, space technology, cybersecurity, nuclear engineering, artificial intelligence, and other specialized scientific fields.”  Given this trend, the Kremlin may soon develop policies to restrict its most qualified citizens from leaving Russia.

Sources:

Kristina Safonova, “Сколько людей уехало из России из-за войны? (How many people left Russia because of the war?),” Meduza (opposition news source), 7 May 2022. https://meduza.io/feature/2022/05/07/skolko-lyudey-uehalo-iz-rossii-iz-za-voyny-oni-uzhe-nikogda-ne-vernutsya-mozhno-li-eto-schitat-ocherednoy-volnoy-emigratsii

Is it possible to estimate how many people left Russia after February 24?

Julia Florinskaya: I don’t have any estimates – neither accurate nor inaccurate. It’s more of an order of numbers. My order of numbers is about 150 thousand people.

Source: Tatyana Popova, “Организация «утечки мозгов» как новое глобальное оружие США (Organization of brain drain as a new global weapon of the United States),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (semi-independent), 5 May 2022. https://www.ng.ru/world/2022-05-05/100_usa050522.html

Will the United States be able to weaken Russia by poaching its best specialists?

The United States of America intends to prevent the development of high technologies in Russia and in parallel to improve its economy, using special tactics, say the authors of the Chinese daily newspaper Global Times. …Washington is trying to facilitate the transfer to the United States of the best Russian specialists with experience in semiconductors, space technology, cybersecurity, nuclear engineering, artificial intelligence, space technology and other specialized scientific fields…. …According to the newspaper, the statement that the United States “wants to see Russia weakened” reveals the true intentions of the United States…. The US creates a brain drain trend using it as a tool to weaken Russia. The consequences of the mass exodus of specialists (scientists and engineers) from the country are obvious – this process undermines the foundation of national economic and military development. …However, it is clear that the US is determined to weaken Russia.

Russian WWII Veteran Benefits Lag Behind Those in Central Asia

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“It is noteworthy that one-time payments to Russian veterans are many times less than similar assistance to their fellow soldiers living in the Asian republics of the former USSR….”

As the brief excerpted article in the semi-independent Nezavisimaya Gazeta indicates, Kremlin rhetoric regarding the debt owed to World War II (WWII) veterans far outweighs the reality of the low pay they receive.  Russia’s annual Victory Day commemoration on 9 May has become the apotheosis and driving force behind current Kremlin ideology.  The Soviet Union’s triumph over Nazi Germany in the what the Russian’s know as the “Great Patriotic War” now serves as the bellicose prism through which the Kremlin view themselves and the world.  Just as the Soviet Union saved the world from fascism in the early 1940s, so today, according to Kremlin propaganda, brave Russian soldiers are fighting Nazism in Ukraine.  Given the central importance of this holiday and the current conflict, one might assume that the Kremlin would understand the importance of demonstrating its gratitude to those few surviving Russian veterans.  However, the article showed an unflattering comparison between the annual benefits provided to surviving WWII veterans in Russia and four Central Asian countries: Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.  For instance, in 2022, “10 thousand rubles [$154] were transferred to the 20,320 [remaining WWII] veterans in the Russian Federation.”  Although the Central Asian economies are much smaller than Russia’s, they provided a significantly larger veteran benefit.  Uzbekistan provided $1,339; Kyrgyzstan paid $1,209; Kazakhstan paid $2,400; and Tajikistan provided $234 to its veterans.  Given the Kremlin’s increasingly heavy-handed regulation of Russia’s media environment, this issue bears further monitoring to see if it gains traction among the Russian public and may provide some opening to combat the Kremlin’s domestic misinformation campaign.

Source:

Mikhail Sergeev, “Участники ВОВ в России получат в 9 раз меньше, чем в Узбекистане и Киргизии (Participants of the Second World War in Russia will receive 9 times less than in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (semi-independent), 4 May 2022. https://www.ng.ru/economics/2022-05-04/100_e04052022_1.html

Comparison of veterans’ payments for Victory Day…On the anniversary of the Victory, participants in the Great Patriotic War living in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Lugansk People’s Republic and the liberated territories of Ukraine will receive a one-time payment of 10,000 Russian rubles by decree of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The same amount will be received by veterans living in the territory of the Russian Federation. Annual payments for Victory Day in the amount of 10 thousand rubles were transferred to 20,320 veterans in the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Labor reported…

It is noteworthy that one-time payments to Russian veterans are many times less than similar assistance to their fellow soldiers living in the Asian republics of the former USSR…. In Uzbekistan, for example, war veterans, concentration camp prisoners and Leningrad blockade survivors will each receive 15 million soums (equivalent to 1,339 US dollars or more than 93,000 Russian rubles)…. In Kyrgyzstan, the veterans’ payment for Victory Day will amount to 100,000 soms ($1,209 or almost 85,000 Russian rubles)…. 

In Kazakhstan, the size of veterans’ payments for Victory Day varies depending on the region of residence and the special status of the recipient. Thus, veterans of the Great Patriotic War living in Nur-Sultan and Almaty will receive 1 million tenge (156 thousand Russian rubles) each, and in Aktobe – 2 million tenge (312 thousand Russian rubles).So the difference in the amount of veterans’ payments even increased this year. Last year, NG wrote that “soldiers living in Kazakhstan will receive 17 times more than their Russian fellow soldiers.” And today you can name another difference – 31 times more than in the Russian Federation….

Russia Tests R-441 Liven Satellite Communication in Ukraine

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R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle.

R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle.

R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle.

R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle.

“An analysis of the various nuances of the special military operation are yet to come, but experts are already noting that, along with other means, the Liven system has confirmed its relevance and effectiveness.”

“For the first time, the Russian military used the R-441 Liven satellite communication station in a combat situation. Its effectiveness was confirmed in the organization of communications among headquarters of the Russian military in Ukraine…“

The accompanying excerpted articles from Russian military-themed website Armeyskiy Standart  and weekly Russian newspaperwebsite Argumenty i Fakty describe the capabilities of the R-441 Liven satellite communication system.  Both articles clarify that the R-441 had its first use in combat conditions during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or as they call it the “special military operation.”  The R-441 is designed to provide SHF (S/C-band) satellite communications capabilities for the strategic- and operational-level headquarters of the Ground Forces and Aerospace Forces.  The first version of the R-441 was fielded in 1997 to replace the R-440 Kristall satellite communication system, which provided a similar capability.  Variants of the R-441 are located in the headquarters of Air and Air Defense Armies, Combined Arms Armies, and Military Districts.  The articles purport that the system has performed well, although they provide few details.

Sources:

Petr Nikolaev “Связующие нити «Ливня»: Система связи окружного и армейского звена управления получила станцию нового технического уровня (The Binding Threads of “Liven”: Military district and combined arms army command-level receive a communications system of a new technical level),” Armeyskiy Standart (Russian military themed website), 4 May 2022. https://armystandard.ru/news/20224271046-kIXen.html

…What are the main advantages of this station [Liven]? Firstly, versatility, it provides stable communications with any digital or analog radio relay stations and unified command and control vehicles. Liven’s navigation system automatically aims the satellite dish (diameter 1.8 meters)…

Secondly, it is more secure, and can operate in environments with electromagnetic interference…

…The R-441 crew (full manned-16 personnel, partially manned – 11 personnel) is able to deploy in 20-30 minutes in any climatic conditions. In addition, difficult terrain is not an obstacle for the system, which is especially important in the mountains…

A number of modifications of the R-441 “Liven-VM” complex have been created. Among them are R-441-LM (linear automobile station “Liven-LM”); R-441-OV (terminal automobile station “Liven-OV”); R-441-OZh (terminal railway station “Liven-OZh”); R-441-OK (terminal container station “Liven-OK”); and R-441-U (nodal automobile station “Liven -U”).

…It is powerful communication center that works autonomously in the field. Just like the stationary communication nodes at the strategic and operational levels, “Liven” provides mobile long-range multi-channel radio communications. The use of repeaters on artificial satellites makes it possible to cover vast distances without problems. For example, at a recent training session in the Amur Region, R-441 crews created a high-quality digital communication network spanning more than 400 kilometers.…An analysis of the various nuances of the special military operation are yet to come, but experts are already noting that, along with other means, the Liven system has confirmed its relevance and effectiveness. In general, the modern communications systems that have recently entered service significantly increase the throughput [bandwidth] and quality of communication channels, allowing commanders of various levels to successfully solve command and control tasks.

Source: Alexey Kozachenko, “Что за «военный роутер»: «Ливень» получил боевое применение на Украине? [What is a “military router”: Was “Liven” received for combat use in UkLivene?],” Argumenty i Fakty (Website of weekly Russian newspaper), 6 May 2022.

https://aif.ru/society/army/chto_za_voennyy_router_liven_poluchil_boevoe_primenenie_na_ukLivene

For the first time, the Russian military used the R-441 Liven satellite communication station in a combat situation. Its effectiveness was confirmed in the organization of communications among headquarters of the Russian military in Ukraine…

The main advantage of the R-441 is its versatility, it provides stable communications with any digital or analog radio relay stations and unified command and control vehicles. The system uses “Globus-1” and “Meridian” satellites, and is able to automatically direct the antenna to a specified satellite. The developers claim that Liven is ten times superior to similar radios in terms of closed signal security and the ability to work in contested electromagnetic interference environments.

In fact, these are powerful communication nodes, military routers of the strategic and operational level, which are capable of autonomous operation in any conditions, on any terrain and in any weather. The use of this system as repeaters of artificial satellites makes it possible to create communication links several hundred kilometers long.The primary mission of “Liven” is to provide the command of the military district with long-range multi-channel radio communications in the field, which allows commanders of various levels to successfully accomplish missions of command and control. The station allows you to maintain a stable telephone and telegraph communications with the ability to access civilian telephone numbers. The equipment of the complex creates protected secure signals, which no modern electronic warfare system is capable of silencing and jamming. One of the additional options of this machine is the ability to create a secure digital network of broadband wireless access.

Image Information:

Image: R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-8dhCKdD/0/X3/i-8dhCKdD-X3.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Image: R-441LM ‘Liven’ satellite communications vehicle
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-3zvPTCM/0/O/i-3zvPTCM.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Russia Shifting Wounded Servicemen to Recruitment Duties

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“… [T]he first rehabilitation and educational center has been created in the Russian Ministry of Defense, which will allow the wounded to continue their military service. The new center enables military personnel to prepare for a new type of service activity in military commissariats, military units, institutions and organizations…”

The accompanying excerpted article from Russia’s army newspaper Red Star discusses Russian plans to have severely wounded servicemen continue their military service in military commissariats.  In the Russian military system, military commissariats are primarily responsible for the biannual draft but also deal with voluntary enlisted accessions, reserve accessions, and certain aspects of national mobilization.  Therefore, military commissariat offices are located throughout the Russian Federation, much as U.S. military recruitment offices are scattered across the United States.  This move appears to reverse a reform made under previous Russian Defense Minister Anatoli Serdyukov, whereby billets in military commissariats that uniformed servicemen once manned became civil service positions.  Placing severely wounded soldiers in commissariats is noteworthy because it acknowledges the horrors of war, the numbers of wounded servicemen, and implies that the Russian government is not concerned about the public seeing these severely wounded servicemen.  To the contrary, some Russian commentators have proposed that these servicemen will raise the prestige of the work of the military commissariats.

Source:

Anton Alekseev, “Для раненых открываются новые перспективы (New opportunities for the wounded),” Red Star, (weekly newspaper of the Russian Army), 13 April 2022.  http://redstar.ru/dlya-ranenyh-otkryvayutsya-novye-perspektivy/

…The Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, General of the Army Sergei Shoigu, decided to ensure the possibility of further military service for military personnel who were injured during a special military operation. To this end, a rehabilitation and educational center has been created on the basis of a military hospital, where, along with medical rehabilitation and prosthetics, those who wish can learn new military specialties. At the opening ceremony of the center, State Secretary – Deputy Minister of Defense Nikolai Pankov spoke with parting words and presented state awards to wounded servicemen who distinguished themselves during the special operation.

Currently, servicemen who were injured while performing combat missions of a special military operation, which led to restrictions on further military service for health reasons, are being treated in military hospitals of the Russian Ministry of Defense. Now the first rehabilitation and educational center has been created in the Russian Ministry of Defense, which will allow the wounded to continue their military service. The new center enables military personnel to prepare for a new type of service activity in military commissariats, military units, institutions and organizations of the Russian Ministry of Defense even at the stage of medical rehabilitation…

“First of all, I would like to fulfill the instructions of the Minister of Defense and convey to you words of gratitude for courage, bravery and bravery in the performance of military duty during a special military operation, wish you a speedy recovery and return to duty,” the Deputy Minister addressed the servicemen. – Army General Sergei Shoigu decided to ensure the possibility of further military service for all servicemen who were injured during the special operation. For each of you, a military position is being introduced in military commissariats, military units, institutions and organizations of the Russian Ministry of Defense…

Thus, the servicemen, after complete recovery and completion of qualification courses, will be sent for further service in military positions.  After the end of the ceremony, the first groups of servicemen who expressed a desire to learn a new military specialty went to classes…The training programs include, firstly, the basic part, which provides for the study of federal legislation and regulatory legal documents in the field of state defense and mobilization work, as well as the activities of military commissariats. The content of another important segment of training – the variable part – is aimed at training in the performance of duties for the position to which the serviceman is directly assigned.  At the end of the training, students will have a final assessment, which will take place in the form of an interview. Upon completion of the training, those who successfully mastered the program will be issued the relevant documents – certificates…

Two Retired Chinese Officials Offer Conflicting Perspectives on Russia’s Prospects in Ukraine

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“The United States is the real planner, instigator, organizer, commander and financier of the war in Ukraine.”

Chinese experts have taken to a number of domestic platforms to offer a more nuanced view of Russia’s war in Ukraine.  While mainstream Chinese media has closely adhered to talking points established in the first weeks of the conflict, the accompanying excerpted articles by two retired Chinese officials suggest alternative narratives of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Retired officials often have the greatest capacity to speak truth to power in the Chinese system as they have no risk of damaging their careers or have sufficiently powerful friends to shield them from the worst consequences.  While some may hold with the standard party line, their perspectives may provide some insights into the real conversations happening behind closed doors and signal whether the Party is continuing a particular effort or open to change.  In this case, the authors, a career military officer and diplomat respectively, offer contradictory views on Russia’s success in the conflict and likely outcomes.

In the excerpted article posted on Red Culture Net, career military officer Peng Guangqian portrays the war as simply an extension of Russian-U.S. competition, with Ukraine simply an unfortunate proxy being used, as he says, as “cannon fodder.  He goes on to repeat the conspiracy theory that the United States was operating biowarfare labs in Ukraine and concludes by praising Russia’s efforts and predicting a Russian victory.  Peng’s military background, generation, and the fora used to publish this article suggest that he represents a more conservative thread in Chinese Communist Party thinking.  His almost blind acceptance of Russia’s position should not be taken as indicative of broader Chinese support for Russia.  His attitudes may be more due to his generation (for comparison Peng is 78, while President Xi Jinping is 68).  Anecdotal evidence suggests that the broader Chinese public is more jaded and acknowledges Russia’s high losses, even when they accept Chinese government media narratives. 

In the second excerpted article from Phoenix News, veteran diplomat Gao Yusheng examines the broader implications of the conflict.  Censors quickly deleted the post, but his opinions are likely representative of a much more realistic group of retired and senior leaders.  In a stark contrast with Peng’s commentary, Gao argues that Russia’s “coming defeat is increasingly clear.”  He acknowledges that Putin has been trying to re-establish the Soviet Union’s sphere of influence and “has never really recognized the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of other former Soviet states.”  He notes “Russia has frequently violated their territoriality and sovereignty” and concludes that “Russia’s political, economic, military and diplomatic power will be significantly weakened and isolated. Russia will be…punished.  Russia’s power will weaken even more.” China further formalized its increasing alignment with Russia shortly before the war broke out (see “China-Russia Pledges of Deeper Cooperation Show Tangible Results,” OE Watch, #3 2022).  The outbreak of war raised fierce internal debates about Russia’s chances for victory in Ukraine and the ultimate consequences of the war for China.  The continuing promotion of pro-Russia narratives, and suppression of even moderate views like Ambassador Gao’s, along with other diplomatic actions, point toward a decision to stand firmly, albeit rhetorically, with Russia.

Source:

Peng Guangqian, “谁是乌克兰战场的胜利者和失败者? (Who are the Winners and Losers on the Ukrainian Battlefield?)” Red Culture Net (PRC State-approved NGO), 16 May 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220518222056/https://www.hswh.org.cn/wzzx/xxhq/oz/2022-05-15/75413.html

The United States is the real planner, instigator, organizer, commander and financier of the war in Ukraine. Although the United States tried its best to urgently send people, money, and guns, it failed to turn the tide of the war. U.S. military weapons have become the spoils of the Russian army, and the military advisers sent by the United States became the prisoners of the Russian army. The severe economic crisis in the United States has made things worse, and the domestic contradictions and infighting of the ruling clique have become more acute.

What makes the United States especially desperate and fearful is that the Russian army successfully conquered the biological laboratory hidden in Ukraine with the purpose of exterminating human beings, and has a large amount of ironclad evidence that the United States has long denied the secret development of biological weapons.

…

Russia’s just actions against [NATO] expansion, encirclement, and hegemony have been supported by all peace-loving forces. To measure the outcome of a war, it is not just a simple comparison of offensive and defensive situations, casualties, and positional gains and losses, but more importantly, the political underpinnings and goals of combat operations. In this contest, Russia represented the interests of the majority of the people and did not hesitate to sacrifice its nation. It not only safeguarded Russia’s own national security and strategic frontiers, but also destroyed the nest of the U.S. biological laboratories in Ukraine, exposing the evil face of the U.S. against humanity. This is a victory for Russia and a great victory for the cause of contemporary world peace and human progress. No matter what tests will be faced in the future, Russia’s brilliant achievements will be glorified in the annals of history.

Source: “中国驻乌克兰前⼤使⾼⽟⽣：俄乌战争的⾛势和对国际秩序的影响 (Former PRC Ambassador to Ukraine Gao Yusheng: The Dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian War and the Implications for the International Order),” Phoenix News (PRC State affiliated media), 10 May 2022. https://archive.ph/20220510105105/https://news.ifeng.com/c/8Fu9YlXw7qR

The Russo-Ukrainian War is the most important international event of the post-Cold War period. It marks the end of the post-Cold War period and the beginning of a new international order. First, Russia has lost the initiative in the Russo-Ukrainian war and this failure is already apparent.

The main reasons why Russia is now heading towards defeat are:

First, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia has always been in a historical process of continuous decline. This decline is first and foremost a continuation of the decline of the Soviet Union before the disintegration, and is also related to the mistakes of the Russian ruling clique in domestic and foreign policies. Western sanctions have intensified this process. The proposition of a so-called revival or revitalization of Russia under Putin’s leadership is totally false, and the decline of Russia has manifested in its economy, military, science and technology, politics, society and other fields, with serious negative consequences for the Russian military and its combat power.

Second, the failure of the Russian blitzkrieg and the failure to achieve a quick victory signaled the beginning of the Russian defeat. The Russian military’s economic and financial strength, which are not commensurate with its status as a so-called military superpower, could not support a high-tech war costing hundreds of millions of dollars a day. The embarrassing defeat of the Russian army due to its poverty was evident everywhere on the battlefield. Every day that the war continues represents a heavy burden for Russia.

Third, Russian military and economic advantages over Ukraine have been offset by the resilience of Ukraine and the huge, sustained and effective aid provided to Ukraine. The generational differences between Russia and the U.S. and other NATO countries in terms of weapons and technology, military concepts, and modes of warfare make the advantages and disadvantages of both sides even more pronounced.

Fourth, modern wars are necessarily hybrid wars, which encompass military, economic, political, diplomatic, public opinion, propaganda, intelligence, and information fields. Russia is not only in a passive position on the battlefield, but has also lost in other areas. This means that it is only a matter of time before Russia is finally. It is only a matter of time before Russia is finally defeated.Fifth, Russia is no longer in a position to determine when and how the war will end. Russia has already failed to end the war as soon as possible to preserve its gains. In this sense, Russia has lost its strategic leading position and the initiative.

India Cancels Plans To Purchase Russian Equipment

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SU-30MKI India.

SU-30MKI India.

“The ongoing conflict in Russia and Ukraine has also resulted in delays in the supply of spares for the fighter aircraft fleet.”

The Make in India initiative initially encouraged the Indian Armed Forces to gradually purchase domestic weapons or equipment whenever possible, before establishing import ban lists in the past year (see: “India Orders More Domestically Produced Self-Propelled Artillery System,” OE Watch, #3 2022).  However, as the accompanying excerpted articles report, Russia’s war in Ukraine is forcing the Indian government to reexamine certain acquisitions and upgrades for the armed forces that could further boost the Make in India initiative.  The article from the independent English-language newspaper The Hindu reports Minster of Defense Rajnath Singh’s comments in early May 2022 after the government cancelled plans to acquire and upgrade two systems from Russia.  He mentions that the government is drawing lessons from the war in Ukraine to become more self-sufficient and acknowledges that there will be short-term economic issues while becoming less dependent on imports.  The article from the English-language independent news magazine India Today reports that India’s Air Force cancelled a purchase of 48 Mi-17 V5 helicopters from Russia in support of the Make in India initiative.  Government officials claimed that “the decision to withdraw the tender for the 48 helicopters was taken long before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and that the Indian Air Force is now going to support an Indian effort for a helicopter. The article from the English-language daily Live Mint reports on the Indian government’s decision to cancel a plan to upgrade a number of its Su-30 fighters just days after cancelling the purchase of Mi-17s.  The article notes that the government made the decision because of the war in Ukraine and the Make in India initiative.  It also notes that the Indian Air Force had planned to upgrade 85 Su-30s with better radar and electronic warfare capabilities.  The article mentions that there are delays for spare parts for the fighters and that, while India has stocked up on enough for now, “it is expected that the supply of these spares and other equipment may become an issue in near future.”  Overall, India did not say that it would stop looking to Russia to acquire or upgrade systems, but the war in Ukraine is causing India to reassess how much it will depend on the Russian defense industry.

Sources:

“Self-reliance vital to protect nation’s sovereignty: Rajnath Singh,” The Hindu (independent English-language newspaper), 5 May 2022. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/self-reliance-vital-to-protect-nations-sovereignty-rajnath-singh/article65385058.ece

…Self-reliance in defence is essential not only for building domestic capacity but also safeguarding the sovereignty of the country, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said on Thursday…

…Talking of ‘Aatmanirbharta’ in defence, Mr. Singh said our past experiences had taught us that India could not depend on imports for its security. “Recent conflicts, especially the situation in Ukraine, have told us that not just defence supplies, but commercial contracts are also prone to be affected when it comes to national interests,” he stated.

In such a situation, self-reliance was necessary not only for building domestic capacity, but also for maintaining our independence, Mr. Singh said…“We may not even find it economical in the beginning. But we are very clear about this, that in the middle and long-term, it will help in building the foundation of a robust industrial base not only in the defence sector, but in every sphere of the industry,” he asserted…

Source: Manjeet Negi, “To boost Make in India, IAF cancels plans to buy 48 Mi-17 choppers from Russia,” India Today (English-language independent news magazine), 16 April 2022. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/make-in-india-iaf-mi-17-choppers-russia-1938341-2022-04-16

Aiming to support the Make in India initiative in the Defence programme of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Indian Air Force has decided to cancel plans to buy 48 more Mi-17 V5 helicopters from Russia.

Top government sources told India Today that the decision to withdraw the tender for the 48 helicopters that was taken much before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out and has nothing to do with the global scenario.

“The tender for 48 Mi-17V5 helicopters has been withdrawn in view of the push for indigenisation. The IAF would now be supporting an indigenous programme for helicopters,” the sources said.

Source: “India shelves ₹35,000 cr plan to upgrade Su-30 fighter fleet amid Russia-Ukraine war,” Live Mint (online version of the financial English-language daily newspaper), 8 May 2022. https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-shelves-rs-35-000-cr-plan-to-upgrade-su-30-fighter-fleet-amid-russia-ukraine-war-11652006926134.html

Several factors have shelved the Indian Air Force’s plan to upgrade its Su-30 MKI fighter aircraft fleet. The factors include the war between Russia and Ukraine and current policy of Make-in-India of the Indian government.

 IAF had planned to equip the Su-30 aircraft with more powerful radars and the latest electronic warfare capabilities to make it more powerful as per the latest standards.

IAF was planning to upgrade 85 of their planes up to the latest standards in collaboration with the Russians and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited. The plan has been put on the backburner for now in view of the present situation…

The ongoing conflict in Russia and Ukraine has also resulted in delays in the supply of spares for the fighter aircraft fleet…

Sources said even though the spares situation is manageable at the moment and expected to remain so in the near future as India had stocked them up in a considerable amount post the Uri surgical strikes and the ongoing China conflict. However, it is expected that the supply of these spares and other equipment may become an issue in near future…

Image Information:

Image: SU-30MKI India.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SU-30MKI_India.jpg
Attribution: Public Domain

Iran Tries To Justify Abstention in UN Vote Condemning Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Iran’s UN Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi, 2 March 2022.

Iran’s UN Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi, 2 March 2022.

“The security concerns of the Russian Federation must be taken into account.”

The excerpted article from the official government media outlet Islamic Republic News Agency, explains Iran’s abstention from a United Nations resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The article cites Iran’s Ambassador to the UN Majid Takht Ravanchi, who offers a series of excuses without addressing the elephant in the room—Iran’s military, diplomatic, and financial ties to Russia.  First, he questions the UN General Assembly’s right to condemn Russia as opposed to the UN Security Council, although Iran frequently complains that the UN Security Council is archaic, benefits the United States, and is in need of “democratization” and reform.  Second, Ravanchi argues that it was hypocritical to condemn Russia for invading Ukraine but not Saudi Arabia for its actions in Yemen despite the fact that Saudi Arabia’s actions are at the invitation of the UN-recognized government in Yemen and are not part of a war of conquest.  Ravanchi’s complaints about lack of participation may also reflect frustration with a temporary ban that the UN imposed on some Iranian voting in January 2022, due to Tehran’s unpaid dues.

Ravanchi’s need to issue such a lengthy explanation is partly due to the deep unpopularity of the abstention vote inside Iran.  While the Iranian government sought to avoid antagonizing Russia, ordinary Iranians draw a parallel to their experience during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.  Iraq was the aggressor during that conflict, but most of the world nevertheless isolated Iran due to antagonism toward its revolution its and subsequent taking of hostages.  Iranians still lament what they see as a lack of justice at the time and draw parallels between their experience 40 years ago and events in Ukraine today.  They are, therefore, critical of their government’s refusal to side with Ukraine and condemn Russia.  Ravanchi probably understood he needed to explain his vote in order to quell public anger.

Source:

“Qat’anameh Mojomeh-e ‘Amumi Sazman’e Melli ‘Aliyeh Rusiyeh ba 141 ray-e Movafeq Tasvib Shod (The UN General Assembly resolution against Russia was adopted by 141 votes in favor),” Islamic Republic News Agency (official government news outlet), 2 March 2022. https://www.irna.ir/news/84668745

UN members voted in favor of the resolution, which was approved by about 80 countries, condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and calling for the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. The UN General Assembly resolution was adopted by 141 votes to 35, with five abstentions. Russia, Syria, Belarus, North Korea and Eritrea voted against the resolution. Also, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Burundi, the Central African Republic, China, Congo, Cuba, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, India, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Madagascar, Mali, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Senegal, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tajikistan, Uganda, Tanzania, Vietnam and Zimbabwe abstained….

Following the adoption of the UN General Assembly resolution on the Ukraine crisis, Iran’s representative to the UN said that the resolution submitted to the General Assembly lacks the element of neutrality and realistic mechanisms for resolving the issue through peaceful means…. He added, “The Islamic Republic is following the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine with deep concern.”

He stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran’s principled position is based on the need for a peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with international law and the need for full compliance by all parties with the supreme principles enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations and international law, including international humanitarian law. We emphasize that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries must be fully respected and the safety and security of all civilians must be guaranteed.

[Majid] Takht Ravanchi continued, “Finding a lasting and long-term solution to such crises requires addressing its roots. We note that the current complexity and fragile situation in Eastern Europe has been exacerbated by provocative actions by the United States and NATO. The security concerns of the Russian Federation must be taken into account.”

Takht Ravanchi said that the United Nations should always avoid double standards in dealing with issues related to international peace and security…. An example of this is the Security Council’s approach to the ongoing conflict in Yemen.

He continued, “We believe that the resolution presented to the General Assembly lacks the element of neutrality and realistic mechanisms for resolving the issue through peaceful means. In addition, not all members of the United Nations had the opportunity to participate in the drafting of this resolution.”

The Iranian ambassador to the United Nations continued: “It is necessary to emphasize that the General Assembly is not in a position to determine the existence of an aggressive act.” In addition to Article 39 of the Charter, UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 of 14 December 1974 delegated this to the Security Council.

The senior diplomat of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations stated, “Based on the above-mentioned reasons, the delegation of the Islamic Republic of Iran abstained from voting on the resolution contained in document.”

Image Information:

Image: Iran’s UN Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi, 2 March 2022
Source: Fars News Agency
https://media.farsnews.ir/Uploaded/Files/Images/1400/02/17/14000217000288_Test_PhotoN.jpg
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