Tag Archives: Latin America

El Salvador’s State of Emergency Marks One Year With No End in Sight

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 Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele delivers a speech on security policy.

 Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele delivers a speech on security policy.

“The state of exception suspends various constitutional guarantees. It allows arbitrary arrests without a warrant, interrupts freedom of association, the right to legal defense, and extends the term of administrative detention to 15 days (when it is normally 72 hours). Under this special regime, the government brought thousands of soldiers and police onto the streets to carry out mass captures. Bukele arrested more than 65,000 suspected gang members, according to official figures, although multiple organizations estimate that thousands could be innocent.”

As part of an effort to fight the notorious MS-13 and Barrio 18 gangs, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele declared a special state of emergency suspending habeas corpus and incarcerating fully 2 percent of the country’s adult population.[i] Recently, Bukele’s state of emergency turned one year old, reports France24, the public-private media partnership associated with the French state. The outlet details how popular the plan is among Salvadorans, reporting they appear willing to accept curtailment of rights in favor of greater security from the country’s gangs, suggesting El Salvador’s state of emergency is unlikely to end anytime soon.

Throughout his tenure, Bukele has shifted his strategy for fighting transnational organized crime, reports El Faro, the Salvadoran investigative outlet often at odds with the president. At the beginning of his presidency, El Faro broke the news that Bukele had negotiated a secret pact with the country’s gangs, seeking to lower the homicide rate and earn their political support in exchange for turning a blind eye to drug trafficking and other activities. After a spate of murders in March 2022, however, Bukele terminated the informal agreement and reversed course drastically. The media outlet reports a decline in homicides in many neighborhoods throughout the country. The perceived success fo Bukele’s crime-fighting strategy has inspired so-called “Plan Bukeles”—as multiple leaders repeat calls to imitate El Salvador’s internal security plan.[ii] Fighting transnational criminal organizations by deprioritizing human rights and allowing presidents to accrete greater power during states of emergency also risks democratic backsliding and consolidating authoritarian political projects.

Source: 

“Qué ha pasado en El Salvador tras un año bajo el régimen de excepción (What has happened in El Salvador after a year under the emergency regime?),” France24 (the public-private media partnership associated with the French state), 28 March 2023. https://www.france24.com/es/am%C3%A9rica-latina/20230327-qu%C3%A9-ha-pasado-en-el-salvador-tras-un-a%C3%B1o-bajo-el-r%C3%A9gimen-de-excepci%C3%B3n

After a year of emergency regime, El Salvador has not come out of its ‘war against gangs.’ The state of exception was originally approved at the end of March 2022 and was implemented by President Nayib Bukele to fight gang violence in the country…Since then, it has been renewed twelve times by the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador…a number that contrasts with what is permitted constitutionally…The Constitution of the Republic establishes very clearly that the emergency regime can only be extended once, that is, for 30 days.

“El año en el que la excepción se convirtió en la norma (The year the exception became the norm),” El Faro (the Salvadoran investigative outlet often at odds with the president), 23 December 2022. https://elfaro.net/es/202212/el_salvador/26652/lo-mejor-y-lo-mas-leido-en-este-ano-bajo-regimen.htm Bukele found his political crusade in the state of emergency in the face of the announcement that he would make six months later, his desire to run for re-election in 2024, violating several articles of the Constitution. Since then, brandishing his state of emergency, Bukele has presented himself as the strongman who will put an end to the criminal groups that have been bleeding and extorting Salvadorans for decades. Since March 2022, more than 60,000 Salvadorans have been detained, doubling the country’s prison population in nine months.

Notes:

[i] For more background on Bukele’s security plan and its impact on the country, and especially its democracy, see: “Democracy Dies Under Mano Dura: Anti-Crime Strategies in the Northern Triangle,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12 April 2023. https://www.csis.org/analysis/democracy-dies-under-mano-dura-anti-crime-strategies-northern-triangle

[ii] For more information on the popularity of “Plan Bukele” regionwide, see: “Nayib Bukele’s Growing List of Latin American Admirers,” Americas Quarterly, 16 February 2023. https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/nayib-bukeles-growing-list-of-latin-american-admirers/

Image Information:

Image: Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele delivers a speech on security policy.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Discurso_de_Nayib_Bukele.jpg  
Attribution: Wikimedia, CC-BY-SA 4.0

Western Efforts To Isolate Russia and Iran Falter in Latin America

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Naval vessels of the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy.

Naval vessels of the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy.

“In recent days, Russian media in Spanish, such as Sputnik and Russia Today, highlighted the rejection of the various Latin American governments to the requests of…Berlin. ‘The arms race in Ukraine does not have the support of South America,’ the outlets declared.”

Latin American countries have often spoken in terms of “neutrality” as they have tried to remain “non-aligned” regarding the Russia-Ukraine war.[i] While some countries in the region have condemned Russia’s invasion, none has joined the Western-led sanctions campaign. Nor has any of the six Latin American countries with old Soviet weaponry stepped forward to donate it to Ukraine. Underscoring these trends is the first article from the Spanish-language outlet BBC Mundo, covering German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s recent trip to Argentina, Brazil, and Chile. At each stop, Scholz implored his counterparts to consider donating their Soviet weapons systems to Ukraine.[ii] All three leaders firmly declined. For his part, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva even blamed both Russia and Ukraine for the current conflict. Colombian President Gustavo Petro said he would rather see Colombia’s equipment become “junk” than send it to Ukraine where it could prolong the war. Latin American countries have been similarly reluctant to turn away from Iran. According to the second accompanying article from Argentina’s leading daily newspaper, La Nación, two Iranian warships sanctioned by the United States recently docked in Rio de Janeiro. Taken together, these developments suggest neither Russia’s war in Ukraine nor Iran’s domestic crackdowns on protestors and its provision of kamikaze drones to Russia for use in Ukraine have managed to isolate these countries in Latin America.

Sources:

“Por qué los países latinoamericanos se han negado a enviar armas a Ucrania (Why Latin American countries have refused to send weapons to Ukraine),” BBC Mundo (the Spanish-language outlet of the popular British state-owned network), 3 February 2023. https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-64506590

During a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is visiting several Latin American countries this week, Fernández clarified that Argentina “is not thinking of sending weapons” to the conflict zone. A few days earlier, his peers in Colombia, Mexico, and Brazil had made similar claims…In recent days, Russian media in Spanish such as Sputnik and Russia Today, highlighted the rejection of the various Latin American governments to the requests of Berlin.

“Brasil permite que dos buques de guerra iraníes atraquen en Río pese a las presiones de EE.UU (Brazil allows two Iranian warships to dock in Rio despite US pressure),” La Nación (Argentina’s leading daily newspaper), 28 February 2023. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/el-mundo/brasil-permite-que-dos-buques-de-guerra-iranies-atraquen-en-rio-pese-a-las-presiones-de-eeuu-nid28022023/

Once Lula’s trip [to the White House] ended, the docking of the ships was authorized. Vice Admiral Carlos Eduardo Horta Arentz, deputy chief of the Brazilian Navy General Staff, gave his approval for the ships to dock in Rio between February 26 and March 4, according to an announcement published on February 23…The Brazilian Navy authorizes a foreign ship to dock in Brazil, but only with prior authorization from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which takes into account the request of the embassy in question and the logistics…Diplomacy with Iran was one of the highlights of Lula’s attempts to bolster Brazil’s international position during his previous presidential terms. In 2010, he traveled to Tehran to meet then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as he tried to broker a US-Iran nuclear deal.

Notes:

[i] For more background on Latin America’s response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, see: Ryan C. Berg et al., “A Hesitant Hemisphere: How Latin America Has Been Shaped by the War in Ukraine,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12 February 2023. https://www.csis.org/analysis/hesitant-hemisphere-how-latin-america-has-been-shaped-war-ukraine

[ii] For more information on the estimated six countries in the region that could donate Soviet-era weapons systems to Ukraine, see: Jeff Seldin, “U.S. Pushing Central, South American Countries to Give Ukraine Quick Military Boost,” Voice of America, 20 January 2023. https://www.voanews.com/a/us-pushing-central-south-american-countries-to-give-ukraine-quick-military-boost-/6927591.html

Image Information:

Image:  Naval vessels of the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy
Source:  https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ceremony_to_welcome_the_33rd_and_send-off_the_34th_naval_groups_of_the_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Navy_%2813%29.jpg 
Attribution: Wikimedia, CC-BY-4.0

Chinese Spy Balloon Over Latin America Elicits Minimal Response

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Chinese surveillance balloon hovers over the Americas.

Chinese surveillance balloon hovers over the Americas.

“The Colombian Air Force said that the balloon did not present a threat to national security and defense and that it launched investigations to establish the origin of the object… Costa Rica also did not report threats to its national security.”

In February 2023, a Chinese surveillance balloon that traversed North American airspace captured the attention of policymakers and civil society in the United States and Canada for more than a week. In contrast, a similar balloon floating simultaneously over Latin America hardly garnered attention.[i] According to Spanish-language CNN Español, around the same time, a Chinese balloon passed over Costa Rica and Venezuela, ultimately hovering over Colombia’s northern region for some time. Regional coverage of the balloon over Latin America generally refers to the “balloon” without mentioning its capacity to conduct surveillance operations. According to reports in one of Colombia’s most important news dailies, El Tiempo, the Colombian air force discussed options to defend its airspace. In the end, however, Latin American leaders opted to observe the balloon’s passage rather than take action.The muted response from regional leaders is telling of their desire to remain out of the fray in an international order that they recognize is increasingly contested by China’s rise. It also comes months before important planned visits to China by the presidents of Colombia and Costa Rica, both of which are seeking development assistance.

Sources: 

“Lo que sabemos sobre el globo chino que sobrevoló Colombia y Costa Rica (What we know about the Chinese balloon that flew over Colombia and Costa Rica),” CNN Español (Spanish-language version of the popular U.S. news outlet), 7 February 2023. https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2023/02/07/globo-chino-colombia-costa-rica-orix/

A spokeswoman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs admitted for the first time that a balloon seen over the skies of Latin America belongs to the country… Two Latin American countries reported that they saw a balloon transit in their skies. One of them was Colombia, whose Air Force reported that its National Air Defense System “detected an object above 55,000 feet, which entered Colombian airspace in the northern sector of the country.”…The Air Force said that the balloon did not present a threat to national security and defense and that it launched investigations to establish the origin of the object… Costa Rica also did not report threats to its national security.

“Globo espía chino: Colombia podría derribar objeto que entró al espacio aéreo? (Chinese spy balloon: Could Colombia shoot down an object that entered its airspace?),” El Tiempo (one of Colombia’s most important dailies), 7 February 2023. https://www.eltiempo.com/justicia/conflicto-y-narcotrafico/globo-espia-chino-colombia-podria-derribarlo-si-entro-al-espacio-aereo-739897  Colombia is another country where an object “similar to a balloon” passed into its airspace in recent days. According to the Colombian Air Force, it will react by constant monitoring of its airspace and looking to guard its national interest…While a range of potential responses was discussed, the balloon passed from the country’s airspace without representing “a threat to security and national defense” according to the Colombian Air Force.

Notes:

[i] For more information on the differences in regional coverage of the Chinese balloon over Latin America, see: Margaret Myers, “‘O Globo Chino’ Floats Over Latin America,” Wilson Center, February 10, 2023. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/globo-chino-floats-over-latin-america

Image Information:

Image: A Chinese surveillance balloon hovers over the Americas.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Balloon_over_MYR.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0

Colombia Deemphasizing Coca Eradication in Counterdrug Strategy

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An aerial eradication operation conducted by helicopter.

An aerial eradication operation conducted by helicopter.

“The government of Gustavo Petro is taking increasingly decisive steps to achieve the reversal in the drug policy that the president of Colombia proposed on the campaign trail.”

Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro campaigned on a platform of changing the country’s policies toward illicit drugs,[i] and he is making good on that promise. According to Spain’s largest daily, El País, which has excellent coverage of Latin America,the Petro government has announced plans to reduce counterdrug strategic efforts aimed at forced eradication of coca. Previously, these efforts constituted some of the country’s main strategies to curb coca, the raw ingredient in cocaine. Instead, Petro plans to pursue drug traffickers, especially those who do not participate in the ongoing peace negotiations. As an outcome, an end to forced eradication means a far less ambitious effort to reduce the number of hectares under coca cultivation. In the second article, U.S.-funded Spanish language news service Voz de América reports that Colombia now aims to reduce a mere 20,000 hectares under coca cultivation, compared to 50,000 hectares, which was its goal in 2022. Petro’s predecessor, President Ivan Duque, eradicated 130,000 hectares of coca cultivation in 2020. Of note, since assuming office, Petro has also reversed course on fighting guerrilla groups and sought a broad truce with criminal organizations in a plan he calls “Total Peace.”[ii] Bridging the two concerns, the new, less ambitious coca eradication efforts will probably drive instability in Colombia and encourage criminal groups to control more territory to plant coca. Indeed, one outcome of this new counterdrug plan is that it has the potential to undercut Petro’s attempt to bring about “Total Peace” in the country.

Sources: 

“El vuelco de Petro en la política de drogas empieza por reducir la erradicación forzada de coca (Petro’s turnaround in drug policy begins by reducing the forced eradication of coca),” El País (Spain’s largest daily with excellent coverage of Latin America), 12 January 2023. https://elpais.com/america-colombia/2023-01-12/el-vuelco-de-petro-en-la-politica-de-drogas-empieza-por-reducir-la-erradicacion-forzada-de-coca.html   

The government of Gustavo Petro is taking increasingly decisive steps to achieve the reversal in the drug policy that the president of Colombia proposed on the campaign trail. After having prepared the ground to bury once and for all the aerial spraying with glyphosate against coca crops, this week the National Police set its goal of eradicating illicit crops in 2023 at 20,000 hectares, a notable reduction of 60% with respect to the 50,000 that was proposed for 2022… At the end of 2021, the total area shot up from 143,000 to 204,000 hectares under cultivation, according to the latest annual report of the United Nations Integrated System for Monitoring Illicit Crops (Simci), the official measurement. Cocaine hydrochloride production potential reached 1,400 tons. Both are the highest figures since records were kept.

“Colombia anuncia reducción en su meta de erradicación de cultivos ilícitos (Colombia announces reduction in its goal of eradication of illicit crops),” Voz de América (the Spanish-language version of the state-owned network), 20 January 2023. https://www.vozdeamerica.com/a/colombia-anuncia-reduccion-meta-erradicacion-cultivos-ilicitos-/6927613.html Colombia reduced its goal of eradicating illicit crops to 20,000 hectares in 2023, a total of 30,000 fewer hectares compared to last year’s figure, which was set at 50,000… President Gustavo Petro has described the current anti-drug policy, which has been implemented since by previous governments, as a failure, and recently at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, once again assured that this is a failed policy – the main factor in the generation of violence in Colombia.

Notes:

[i] For more background on Petro’s campaign and his policy shift on illicit drugs, see: Ryan Berg, “Colombia’s Gustavo Petro Promises New Approach to Security and Drugs,” OE Watch, 10-2022. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/428038; Missy Ryan, “In Test of Ties with U.S., Colombian Leader Proposes Shift on Drugs,” Washington Post, 27 September 2022. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/09/27/united-states-colombia-drugs/

[ii] For more information on Petro’s views on guerrilla groups and Colombia’s security challenges more generally, see: Ryan Berg, “Colombia’s Congress Authorizes “Total Peace” Negotiation With Guerrilla and Criminal Groups,” OE Watch, 1-2023. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/434199; Ryan Berg, “Colombia’s Leftist President Seeks To Resume Negotiations With National Liberation Army,” OE Watch, 9-2022. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/425694; Christina Noriega, “Colombia’s Radical New Approach to Cocaine,” Foreign Policy, 30 October 2022. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/30/colombia-cocaine-coca-industry-policy-war-drugs-gustavo-petro/

Image Information:

Image:  An aerial eradication operation conducted by helicopter.
Source:  https://www.flickr.com/photos/umpquawild/28702214956
Attribution: CC BY-NC 2.0


Russian Interference in Colombian Election Roils the Region

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Colombia President Gustavo Petro’s campaign received strong support from Russian bots and disinformation campaigns.

Colombia President Gustavo Petro’s campaign received strong support from Russian bots and disinformation campaigns.

“Gustavo Petro’s presidential campaign received a strong boost from Russia with fake accounts, orchestrated hashtags and mentions that sought to position the then candidate of the Historical Pact.”

Russia’s digital influence operations are robust throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. In the past, Russian bots and other digital interference strategies have worked to amplify divisive messages and pour fuel on social movements and protests in the regions.[i] More recently, Russia has engaged in robust propaganda and disinformation campaigns regarding the war in Ukraine.[ii] Recently, Colombia’s largest weekly magazine, Semana, published a report on Twitter’s release of materials about the country’s 2022 presidential campaign. Those materials, the outlet reports, show a strong level of support for then-candidate Gustavo Petro and false news about Petro’s principal rivals for the presidency. Moreover, they also amplified anti-U.S. and anti-Western rhetoric. Further, many of the message regarding Petro revolved around security cooperation and the so-called war on drugs, amplifying his message of the previous administration’s failure.[iii] The second excerpted article from Medellin’s leading daily newspaper, El Colombiano, states that Russia’s support for Petro included bots and fake accounts, orchestrated hashtags, mentions, and use of its outlets like Russia Today to support the candidate’s election and sow propaganda. The disclosures generated wide reaction among Colombia’s political class and generated further division between parties. Russia’s strong influence on Latin America’s information environment highlights its capacity to place propaganda in Spanish and Portuguese and elevate the messaging of fringe candidates who threaten constitutional order and stability throughout the hemisphere. Colombia is certainly not an isolated case. Latin American governments are often poorly equipped to deal with these challenges and for their parts, social media entities are often slower to take down fake news in Spanish and Portuguese than they are in English.

Sources: 

“Twitter desclasifica archivos secretos y estalla polémica contra el Gobierno: hubo injerencia indebida desde Rusia a favor de campaña de Gustavo Petro (Twitter declassifies secret files and controversy erupts against the Government: there was undue interference from Russia in favor of Gustavo Petro’s campaign),” Semana (Colombia’s largest weekly magazine and major news source in the country), 3 January 2023. https://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/atencion-archivos-secretos-de-twitter-revelan-injerencia-indebida-desde-rusia-a-favor-de-la-campana-presidencial-de-gustavo-petro/202343/  

Gustavo Petro’s presidential campaign received a strong boost from Russia with fake accounts, orchestrated hashtags and mentions that sought to position the then candidate of the Historical Pact. This is evidenced by secret Twitter documents that were recently declassified by order of the CEO of the social network, Elon Musk… During the campaign, it was discovered that Sebastián Guanumen, one of the leaders of Petro’s digital strategy, gave the order to ‘run the ethical line’ to discredit then-candidate Petro’s main contenders. In this sense, digital narratives were created in which lies, insults and slander were then amplified.

“La campaña de Petro en Twitter tuvo ayuda rusa (Petro’s Twitter campaign had Russian help),” El Colombiano (the city of Medellín’s leading daily newspaper), 4 January 2023. https://www.elcolombiano.com/colombia/politica/rusia-habria-influido-en-las-elecciones-presidenciales-para-apoyar-a-petro-KJ19760596  

In one of the confidential texts, it was stated that in the midst of monitoring Twitter activity in South America, with special analysis in Venezuela, Cuba and Colombia, accounts were discovered that talked about the Petro campaign… In addition to the alleged support of Russian bots, the presidential campaign of the candidate of the Historical Pact was also involved in other controversies. The one that caused the most commotion was that of the ‘Petrovideos,’ in which conversations about communication strategies were recorded so that Petro would stand out by discrediting his competitors.

Notes:

[i] For more on Russia’s attempt to sow chaos and social division in Latin America, especially when protests break out, see: Lara Jakes, “As Protests in South America Surged, So Did Russian Trolls on Twitter, U.S. Finds,” New York Times, 29 January 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/19/us/politics/south-america-russian-twitter.html

[ii] For more details on Russia’s propaganda campaign and disinformation operations in Latin America regarding its war in Ukraine, see: Jessica Brandt and Valeria Wirtschafter “Working the Western Hemisphere: How Russia Spreads Propaganda about Ukraine in Latin America and the Impact of Platform Responses,” Brookings Institution, December 2022. https://www.brookings.edu/research/working-the-western-hemisphere/

[iii] For more information on President Petro’s drug policies and critique of the war on drugs, see coverage of his inaugural speech at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2022: “Irrational War on Drugs, Destruction of the Amazon, Expose Humanity’s Failures, Colombia’s Petro tells the U.N.,” United Nations, 20 September 2022. https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/09/1127151

Image Information:

Image: Colombia President Gustavo Petro’s campaign received strong support from Russian bots and disinformation campaigns.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/gustavopetrourrego/21474562099 
Attribution: CC BY-NC 2.0

China Deepening Cooperation in Latin America’s Sizeable Lithium Sector 

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Lithium mines in Jujuy Province, Argentina.

Lithium mines in Jujuy Province, Argentina.

“China’s consumption of lithium accounted for 65 percent in the global lithium market, driven partly by the fast-developing new-energy vehicle sector and the energy storage industry, along with the country’s carbon emissions reduction goals.”

The price of lithium, a key ingredient in battery technology, has skyrocketed amid the rush for critical minerals. Lithium can be found in abundance throughout South America’s so-called “Lithium Triangle,” which comprises Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile and contains approximately 55 percent of the world’s known lithium deposits.[i]  Mexico also has known lithium deposits. Collectively, Latin America’s lithium reserves has attracted global attention, especially from China. According to the first excerpted article from China’s state-run Global Times, Chile’s Consul General in Chengdu vowed to increase the country’s cooperation with China to stabilize the global supply and price of lithium. In Mexico’s case, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has sought to nationalize the metal known as “white gold.” According to the second excerpted article from privately held popular media outlet Radio Formúla, a new state company called Lithium for Mexico will control the metal in Mexico, demanding foreign partners to enter joint ventures and junior partnerships. The article reports that only one company has received a unique exception to this rule—China’s Ganfeng Lithium. Mexico’s government justifies this exception on the basis that Ganfeng had an existing agreement to control lithium at the Bacanora site before the mineral’s nationalization. These developments demonstrate China’s advances in Latin America with respect to its critical minerals strategy, as well as the success of its economic diplomacy in achieving carveouts for its companies.

Sources: 

“Chile vows to enhance cooperation with China in lithium sector,” Global Times (state-owned media outlet under the auspices of the People’s Daily), 9 November 2022. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1279134.shtml  

Chile’s consul general in Chengdu…Gustavo Díaz Hidalgo, on Wednesday vowed to further enhance cooperation with China in the lithium sector, in a bid to stabilize the global supply of the vital mineral for making batteries…Díaz predicted that the global demand for lithium each year would surpass 1 million tons by 2025, crossing 2.5 million tons by 2030.
 
The consul general said that China’s consumption of lithium accounted for 65 percent in the global lithium market, driven partly by the fast-developing new-energy vehicle sector and the energy storage industry, along with the country’s carbon emissions reduction goals.

“Litio para México: Empresa estatal lo explotará en exclusiva…salvo una excepción china (Lithium for Mexico: State company will exploit it exclusively…with one Chinese exception),” Radio Formúla (a popular outlet owned by the large media conglomerate Grupo Formúla), 24 August 2022. https://www.radioformula.com.mx/economia/2022/8/24/litio-para-mexico-empresa-estatal-lo-explotara-en-exclusiva-salvo-una-excepcion-china-728919.html

The Secretary of Energy, Rocío Nahle, explained that the current concession for exploration and exploitation of lithium at the hands of a private company will be maintained… Although concessions will no longer be granted to explore and exploit the mineral…the only one in force for exploitation before the reform to the Mining Law, in the hands of an Asian company, will remain in force.

Notes:

[i] For more information on U.S. opportunities in the Lithium Triangle and how the United States might effectively compete, see: Ryan C. Berg and T. Andrew Sady-Kennedy, “South America’s Lithium Triangle: Opportunities for the Biden administration,” 17 August 2021. https://www.csis.org/analysis/south-americas-lithium-triangle-opportunities-biden-administration

Image Information:

Image:  Lithium mines in Jujuy Province, Argentina.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/earthworks/47617675391
Attribution: CC BY-NC 2.0

Large Hack of Latin America’s Defense Departments Puts Security Services on Edge

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Mexican Secretary of Defense, Luis Crescencio Sandoval, speaks to reporters.

Mexican Secretary of Defense, Luis Crescencio Sandoval, speaks to reporters.

“The information produced…also shows the military’s knowledge of relations between authorities and criminal groups.”

A group of anonymous, self-described social justice advocates called the Guacamayas have carried out a large cyberattack and hack of Latin America’s Defense Ministries. The Guacamayas are a loose network of hackers that aim to expose corruption within the highest echelons of Latin American governments, abuses of Indigenous rights, and the internal governance structures of mining and oil companies. The Guacamayas have engaged in several high-profile hacks of the Colombian and Guatemalan governments before and are thus known to many throughout the region. The Guacamayas are a dispersed group without a known physical location.

The Guacamayas’ recent hack is suspected of exposing upwards of 10 terabytes of information, including information from security services in El Salvador, Chile, and Colombia. However, as BBC News Mundo reports, the portion of the data pertaining to Mexico’s security forces is expected to be the largest—around 6 terabytes of information. While Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador says the Army has nothing to hide, BBC News Mundo says that the leaks have already roiled Mexico’s Defense Department, exposing corruption and links to organized crime groups, as well as a concerning level of advancement of criminal cartels within the country. According to Mexican daily El Universal, the leaks have also revealed connections between criminal organizations and extra-hemispheric actors, such as Russia. In one instance, a Russian national linked to the country’s special forces, trained and provided weapons to a group of self-defense forces in the southern Mexican state of Guerrero. These leaks have the potential to further cause deep concern in Latin America’s defense ministries and security forces for months and years to come. They also demonstrate that despite countries’ best efforts to professionalize their bureaucracies and tackle corruption, many security services throughout the region remain mired in corruption and penetrated by the interests of transnational organized crime groups.

Sources: 

“Guacamaya Leaks: 5 revelaciones del hackeo masivo que sufrió el ejército de México (Guacamaya Leaks: 5 revelations of the massive hacking suffered by the Mexican army),” BBC News Mundo (Spanish-language version of the popular British outlet), 6 October 2022. https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-63167331 

The information produced… also shows the military’s knowledge of relations between authorities and criminal groups. For example, there are reports about possible links between 20 mayors of the state of Guerrero with drug gangs and leaders when the Ayotzinapa students disappeared… [the leaks] exposed that there are files on politicians across the entire political spectrum of the country, from legislators to governors, and their possible links with criminals… there are also reports about corruption and weaknesses in customs and how this facilitates the trafficking of drugs and products through the points of entry and exit of the country. Politicians have sought out the armed forces themselves to connect contractors and service companies in the many important infrastructure projects they control.

“Guacamaya Leaks revela conexión rusa con autodefensas de Guerrero…y de éstas con un cártel (Guacamaya Leaks reveal Russian connection with Guerrero self-defense groups…and of with a cartel),” El Universal (one of Mexico’s oldest and most read dailies), 4 October 2022. https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/guacamaya-leaks-revela-conexion-rusa-con-autodefensas-de-guerrero-y-de-estos-con-un-cartel 

This self-defense group emerged in 2017 and is located in one of the areas with the highest poppy production in the country… Bogdanov Rustam, a Russian national, is identified as an instructor… he is a former operator of the Russian Special Forces Unit and the Antiterrorism Unit… The document also specifies that the purpose of this course for the self-defense groups is to ‘train them to face their antagonists and control their areas of presence.’

Image Information:

Image: Mexican Secretary of Defense, Luis Crescencio Sandoval, speaks to reporters.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Luis_cresencio_sandoval_sedena_notimex.jpg_1934679704.jpg
Attribution: CCA – 4.0

Venezuela’s Mystery Plane Shows Iran’s Strategic Penetration of Latin America

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A Venezuelan plane from the state-owned airline Conviasa at Simón Bolivar Airport in Caracas.

A Venezuelan plane from the state-owned airline Conviasa at Simón Bolivar Airport in Caracas.

“Argentina’s Justice Ministry is trying to establish why Iranians came among the crew of the Venezuelan airline that was officially supposed to transport auto parts from Mexico to Argentina, and to see if there are elements that support the hypothesis that the Iranian pilot is indeed linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.”

On 8 June, a large Boeing 747 of suspicious origin was grounded in Buenos Aires, where Argentine authorities seized the crew’s passports.  The plane belongs to Venezuela’s state-owned Emtrasur Cargo airline, a subsidiary of Conviasa, which Iran’s sanctioned Mahan Air sold to Venezuela one year ago.  The mystery surrounding the cargo plane hints at Iran’s strategic penetration of Latin America through a mix of commercial and military activities.  According to one of Argentina’s leading media outlets Infobae, the aircraft stopped in Mexico to load auto parts, then made several trips throughout South America, including Venezuela, Paraguay, and eventually Argentina before authorities grounded it.  Cordoba’s leading newspaper, Diario Cordoba, posits that the passenger manifest, which was exceptionally large, holds clues as to the plane’s true purpose.  The paperwork shows that the pilot of the plane was a known member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Qud’s Force, Captain Gholamreza Ghasemi.  Further, speculation is rife that at least one passenger departed the plane before it arrived in Argentina, when the plane was forced to make an emergency landing in Cordoba after bad weather in Buenos Aires caused it to avert its landing there. If Iran is ferrying security operatives and sanctioned individuals from its elite security forces to Latin America by cargo and civilian airliners, posing as either passengers or crew members, this represents a grave security threat. In 1992 and 1994, Argentina suffered devastating terrorist attacks on a Jewish community center and the Israeli Embassy. In Argentina, it has been suspected for years that Iran and Hezbollah have a connection to these attacks.

Source:

“El avión con tripulantes iraníes encendió las alarmas de toda la región hace cuatro semanas (The plane with Iranian crew set off alarms throughout the region four weeks ago),” Diario Cordoba (Cordoba’s leading daily newspaper), 14 June 2022.  https://titulares.ar/el-avion-con-tripulantes-iranies-encendio-las-alarmas-de-toda-la-region-hace-cuatro-semanas/ 

The international alarms over the flights of a plane manned by Iranians and Venezuelans in the Southern Cone began to ignite four weeks ago throughout the region…[Argentina] received a notice that it is a company and therefore an aircraft that was sanctioned by the United States Department of the Treasury and that its crew members were members of the Al-Quds Force, the revolutionary force of Iran, whom the United States has been on a terrorism list.

Source:  “EMTRASUR: la empresa fantasma venezolana que vuela con un solo avión bajo la sombra iraní (EMTRASUR: the Venezuelan ghost company that flies with a single plane under the Iranian shadow),” Infobae (one of Argentina’s leading outlets, generally viewed as center-left politically), 19 June 2022.  https://www.infobae.com/politica/2022/06/19/emtrasur-la-empresa-fantasma-venezolana-que-vuela-con-un-solo-avion-bajo-la-sombra-irani/ 

Paraguayan Intelligence Minister Esteban Aquino assured this Friday that Gholamreza Ghasemi, the pilot of the plane held in Buenos Aires, has ties to the Quds Force.  Argentina’s Justice Ministry is trying to establish why Iranians came among the crew of the Venezuelan airline that was officially supposed to transport auto parts from Mexico to Argentina, and to see if there are elements that support the hypothesis that the Iranian pilot is indeed linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.

Image Information:

Image: A Venezuelan plane from the state-owned airline Conviasa at Simón Bolivar Airport in Caracas.
Source: Wilfredor via Wikimedia https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Conviasa_plane_in_Maiquetia_Airport.jpg
Attribution:  Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication

Invasion of Ukraine Spotlights Russia’s Information, Intelligence Operations in Latin America

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A GLONASS or GPS personal device for satellite positioning.

A GLONASS or GPS personal device for satellite positioning.

“All installation work was carried out by Russian personnel and their access is restricted.  A concrete wall topped with barbed wire blocks the way… there is no known anti-drug operation in which it has participated.”

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine brought new focus on Latin America, where Russia maintains influence, especially through the authoritarian regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba.  Russia’s economic footprint may be relatively small compared to China’s, but it operates robust propaganda networks with wide dissemination in the region.  Russia has also demonstrated an ability to interfere in the region’s elections, including in Colombia’s upcoming presidential election.  The excerpted article from center-left Colombian daily El Espectador reports that social media experts have noted an uptick in Russian bots shaping the political narrative in Colombia and pushing domestic debate to the political fringes.  Meanwhile, in Daniel Ortega’s Nicaragua, scrutiny remains focused on Russia’s highly capable intelligence-gathering satellites.  The excerpted article from Argentine center-left news website Infobae reports that Russia installed these satellites under the guise of assisting Nicaragua in its counternarcotics operations.  However, the site reports that Russia’s Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) has not participated in any known counternarcotics operations in its over five years of existence.  Russia’s position in Nicaragua complements its four stations in Brazil, three in Antarctica, and one in South Africa.  The country’s position in Latin America, bolstered by digital information operations and military hardware in countries such as Nicaragua and Venezuela, is extremely important as it contemplates potential measures against the United States for its punishing sanctions campaign.

Source:

“Estación satelital o espionaje?: cómo es la más misteriosa base rusa en América Latina (Satellite station or espionage?: what is the most mysterious Russian base in Latin America),” Infobae (Argentine news outlet generally considered center-left politically), 17 March 2022.  https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2022/03/17/estacion-satelital-o-espionaje-como-es-la-mas-misteriosa-base-rusa-en-america-latina/

From 2013 to date, Russia has installed nine ground satellite stations outside its borders, known as GLONASS (Global Navigation Satellite System, for its acronym in Russian).  The last one was installed in Nicaragua five years ago, and it is receiving attention when the world takes stock of the resources that Russia has in the face of a possible global war…  All installation work was carried out by Russian personnel and their access is restricted.  A concrete wall topped with barbed wire blocks the way…there is no known anti-drug operation in which it has participated.

Source:  “La influencia rusa en América Latina, ¿un riesgo para Colombia? (Russian influence in Latin America—a risk for Colombia?),” El Espectador (Colombian daily generally considered center-left politically), 1 March 2022.  https://www.elespectador.com/mundo/america/la-influencia-rusa-en-america-latina-un-riesgo-para-colombia/

There is a lot of talk about disinformation that comes from abroad.  Yes, that is a real threat.  Not so much because of the penetration of vote counting systems in democratic countries, but because of the manipulation of the media, because of disinformation propaganda, because of the use of algorithms to send messages that confuse the voter and that create alarmist opinions.

Image Information:

Image caption:  A GLONASS or GPS personal device for satellite positioning.
Source:  https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:GLONASS_or_GPS_personal_device_NPI-2.jpg
Attribution:  Wikimedia

Some Latin American Countries Responsive to Russian Entreaties To Remain Silent on Ukraine War

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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.

“Russia said in December that escalating tensions over Ukraine could lead to a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis, when the world teetered on the brink of nuclear war.”

Many countries in Latin America opted to say little about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine because of their reticence to ruffle their relationships with Russia.  This relative silence is the result of persistent Russian attempts to cultivate influence with anti-Western Latin American leaders in the United States’ backyard as a way to counterbalance Western actions in what the Kremlin considers its sphere of influence.  Center-left Argentine news outlet Infobae reports that Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov visited the region and met with Russia’s most important allies in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba.  Borisov promised closer relations and greater “strategic depth” to Russia’s security cooperation.  In turn, the regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba have parroted Russian talking points about NATO and sanctions.  Further, Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro and Argentina’s president Alberto Fernández both visited Putin in Moscow shortly before the war, according to Spain’s politically left-leaning main daily El País.  Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov recently stated that Russia had the ability to deploy forces and equipment to Latin America through its security and cooperation agreements.  Russia’s pattern of outreach to Latin America is not new since its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022: similar diplomatic and military visits presaged Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 (then President Dmitri Medvedev) and its invasion of Crimea in 2014 (Putin himself).

Source:

“Rusia continúa estrechando lazos con las dictaduras latinoamericanas (Russia continues to strengthen ties with Latin American dictatorships),” Infobae (Argentine news outlet generally seen as center-left politically), 19 February 2022.  https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2022/02/19/rusia-continua-estrechando-lazos-con-las-dictaduras-latinoamericanas-el-viceprimer-ministro-de-putin-visito-cuba/ 

Borisov arrived on the island after visiting Nicaragua and Venezuela, Russia’s key allies in Latin America, and said Russia would also deepen bilateral ties with the two countries…Russia said in December that escalating tensions over Ukraine could lead to a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis, when the world teetered on the brink of nuclear war…Cuban dictator Miguel Díaz-Canel discussed coordinating a ‘strategic partnership’ with Putin in January, as tensions began to rise in Ukraine.

Source: “Ucrania, una guerra incómoda para Brasil y Argentina (Ukraine, an uncomfortable war for Brazil and Argentina),” El País (Spain’s main daily generally considered politically-left), 1 March 2022.  https://elpais.com/internacional/2022-03-02/ucrania-una-guerra-incomoda-para-brasil-y-argentina.html 

Bolsonaro’s Brazil and Fernández’s Argentina have been trying to remain neutral since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.  Only eight days had passed after the Brazilian president was received in Moscow by Vladimir Putin and twenty since a similar visit by the Argentine.  Both Latin American presidents then highlighted the good relations they maintain with the Kremlin.  But the war has turned everything upside down.  The diplomatic tension leaves little room for the grays, and both Bolsonaro and Fernández, located at the ideological poles, face domestic problems due to their international positioning.

Image Information:

Image caption:  Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.
Source:  Kremlin.ru via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vladimir_Putin_%26_Nicol%C3%A1s_Maduro_in_Tehran,_24_November_2015.jpg
Attribution:  CC BY 4.0