Category Archives: OE Watch

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula Names New Leader

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Sana’a, capitol of Yemen at Night.

“Despite its decline in the Arabian Peninsula, [AQAP] remains the most effective terrorist group in Yemen, with the intent to launch attacks in the region and beyond.”

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) named a successor after the recent loss of its leader. According to the first excerpted article from the Saudi state-owned international news outlet Al Arabiya, Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki, aka “Abu al-Laith,” a Yemeni national, has been named the new leader of AQAP. The organization’s official, Ibrahim al-Qusi, confirmed in a broadcast recording that the group’s former leader had been killed, declaring that “Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki is the new leader of the organization in the Arabian Peninsula.”[i] The new AQAP leader, Al-Awlaki, reportedly had direct ties to former al-Qaeda leader Usama bin Laden and was repatriated to Yemen by Bin Laden. Al-Awlaki is reported to also have originated from the same tribe as former al-Qaeda spiritual leader Anwar al-Awlaki, who was killed in 2011. There is a $6 million reward from the U.S. State Department for information about the new AQAP leader, who has “publicly called for attacks on the U.S. and its allies.” The U.S. has designated AQAP as a Foreign Terrorist Organization since 2010.[ii]

The second excerpted article from the Jeddah-based Saudi daily newspaper Okaz, provides some perspective on the current status of AQAP, as well as the potential effect of Al-Awlaki as the group’s new leader. The article notes that the al-Qaeda affiliate has struggled for a multitude of reasons, including the loss of several key leaders, financial challenges, and internal disputes that have led to structural issues. The article also states that Al-Awlaki could be a unifier for AQAP due to his extensive background in the terrorist network, experience in the al-Qaeda leadership council, and previous position as Emir in the Shabwa Province. While there has been a shift in the West to focus on great power competition with China and Russia, and persistent challenges from Iran, the ongoing threat from international terrorist organizations cannot be discounted, especially with new leaders who have openly called for attacks against the United States.[iii]

Sources:

“سعد العولقي.. من هو زعيم “القاعدة” الجديد في اليمن؟  (Saad Al-Awlaki… Who is the New Leader of Al Qaeda in Yemen),” Al Arabiya (Saudi state-owned news outlet), 11 March 2024. https://www.alarabiya.net/arab-and-world/yemen/2024/03/11/بعد-الاعلان-عن-مقتل-زعيم-تنظيم-القاعدة-من-هو-خليفته؟

Al-Qaeda in Yemen confirmed the killing of its leader, Khaled Batarfi, without going into details, announcing that his new successor is Saad Al-Awlaki. The SITE Center, which monitors terrorist media, stated that the organization’s legal official, Ibrahim al-Qusi, confirmed in a recording broadcast yesterday, Sunday, the killing of Batarfi, the organization’s leader since February 2020, declaring that “Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki is the new leader of the organization in the Arabian Peninsula.” , which the United States classifies as a terrorist…

Saad bin Atef Al-Awlaki, nicknamed “Abu Al-Laith,”… is of Yemeni nationality, and media reports indicate that he is one of those who was repatriated from Afghanistan to Yemen by the former leader of Al-Qaeda, who was killed by America in 2011, Osama bin Laden. Thus, Al-Awlaki becomes the fifth leader to publicly lead Al-Qaeda in Yemen, after working for years as the extremist organization’s second-in-command in the country.

Saad Al-Awlaki was born in the town of Al-Shu’bah in Wadi Yasbam in the Upper Egypt District in Shabwa Governorate (south). He comes from the large Al-Awalqi tribe, the same tribe from which the spiritual father of Al-Qaeda, Anwar Al-Awlaki, who was killed by an American drone in 2011, descends.

Mohamed Hefney, “خبير مصري لـ عكاظ: الخلافات تفكك تنظيم القاعدة الإرهابي في اليمن (An Egyptian expert to Okaz: Disagreements are Disintegrating the Al-Qaeda Terrorist Organization in Yemen),” Okaz (Saudi based newspaper), 13 March 2024. https://www.okaz.com.sa/news/politics/2157390

Fears are escalating within Al-Qaeda, after the killing of its fourth leader in Yemen, Khalid Batarfi, nicknamed “Abu al-Miqdad al-Kindi,” and the appointment of his successor, Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki, nicknamed “Abu al-Layth,” who the US administration classified in 2021 as a global terrorist, and offered a reward of $6. Millions of dollars in exchange for providing information about him.

Dr. Nabil Naeem, believes that Al-Awlaki is known for his extreme hostility toward America, and like all of his predecessors, he called for the necessity of launching attacks on the United States of America, which prompted the American administration to allocate a large financial reward to anyone who provides information about him. He stressed that Al-Qaeda in general, whether in Yemen or elsewhere, has become weak and fragile and is witnessing a major liquidation of its leaders, whether in Yemen or other countries in the region. It is not the organization that existed 20 years ago. The new leader of Al-Qaeda in Yemen faces grave challenges and priorities, including how to preserve his life and the lives of his followers from the expected physical liquidation. The Yemeni organization also faces challenges at the financial and structural levels, as the financial level is very weak. Structural level: There is a state of splits and divisions within the organization left behind by the former leader of the organization, which indicates that his death was under the direction of those close to him. Therefore, we do not rule out that the new leadership will seek to bring the terrorist organization together.Al-Awlaki is considered one of the founding leaders of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and he served as a member of the leadership council of Al-Qaeda. He was born in the 1980s. He joined the organization in 2010, and assumed the position of Emir of Shabwa Province until 2014, then he was appointed a member of the organization’s Shura Council, which is responsible for Managing operations, and he was called the second man in Al-Qaeda in Yemen.

Notes:

[i] Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was initially created in 2009 after the Saudi and Yemeni branches merged forces. The group is currently assessed to be one of the most lethal al-Qaeda affiliates. The Council on Foreign Relations published a backgrounder on AQAP, see: “Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP),” Council on Foreign Relations, 19 June 2015. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/al-qaeda-arabian-peninsula-aqap

[ii] For a complete list of designated terrorist organizations by the United States Government see: “Foreign Terrorist Organizations,” U.S. Department of State, Accessed 12 March 2024. https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/

[iii] The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community further notes that, “Al-Qaeda’s regional affiliates on the African continent and Yemen will sustain the global network as the group maintains its strategic intent to target the United States and U.S. citizens.” The entirety of the most recent unclassified annual threat assessment issued by the United States Intelligence Community can be located here: “Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community,” Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 5 February 2024. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf

Image Information:

Image: Sana’a, capitol of Yemen at Night.
Source: https://openverse.org/image/c4b13d0f-5ffa-44fc-9a82-518d08dbfbc0?q=yemen Attribution: CC BY-SA 2.0

Mexico’s Cartel-Related Violence Spikes as Elections Approach

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Mexico has responded to security threats by deploying its army on the streets.

“No more than 12 hours passed between the shooting of the Morena precandidate Miguel Ángel Zavala Reyes, and the shooting of the PAN precandidate, Armando Pérez Luna.”

Mexico has long suffered high levels of violence related to its powerful drug cartels. Violence often spikes during election season, as cartels seek to elect politicians aligned with their agendas and eliminate those opposed. According to the Spanish daily El País, recent assassinations in Mexico have contributed to growing fears that the country’s upcoming elections could witness more violence than in many previous election cycles.[i] The paper reports on two mayoral candidates in the municipality of Maravatío recently assassinated within hours of one another. The article mentions that earlier in the campaign season, cartels abducted and killed a third mayoral candidate from Maravatío. This area of the country features three powerful cartels contesting territory: the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, the Michoacán Family, and the Knights Templar. According to the second excerpted article by Diario de México, which highlights the research of NGO group Data Cívica, 36 aspirants to public office or members of their families were assassinated in January and February alone.[ii] Mexico’s cartels continue to accrete power, and during election season, seek to play a primary role in the selection of candidates. While candidates for federal office receive security protection from the government, local candidates do not. In Mexico, it is often control of local candidates that proves most important for cartel operations.

Sources:

“El terror en Maravatío: asesinados dos precandidatos a la alcaldía en menos de 12 horas (Terror in Maravatío: two mayoral candidates murdered in less than 12 hours),” El País (Spanish daily with excellent regional coverage), 27 February 2024. https://elpais.com/mexico/elecciones-mexicanas/2024-02-27/el-terror-en-maravatio-asesinados-dos-precandidatos-a-la-alcaldia-en-menos-de-12-horas.html 

No more than 12 hours passed between the shooting of the Morena precandidate Miguel Ángel Zavala Reyes, and the shooting of the PAN precandidate, Armando Pérez Luna; two of the people who were seeking to become the next municipal president of Maravatío, a municipality of 80,000 inhabitants in the State of Michoacán…According to the group Data Cívica, ‘In Mexico, electoral violence has become a tool of organized crime to influence the public life of states and municipalities’…During the month of January, at least five candidates or aspirants for elected office were murdered in Mexico.

“Febrero fue letal para aspirantes a cargo de elección popular: ONG (February was lethal for candidates for popular election positions: NGO),” Diario de México (one of the country’s oldest dailies), 15 March 2024. https://www.diariodemexico.com/mi-nacion/febrero-fue-letal-para-aspirantes-cargo-de-eleccion-popular-ong   At least five candidates or aspirants for elected office were murdered in Mexico during February, bringing the total to 10 in the first two months of the year, the non-governmental organizations Data Cívica reported this Friday. The number of homicides related to political violence rises to 36 when public officials and relatives of politicians are also considered, which are detailed in the report ‘Voting between bullets’ in February.

Notes:

[i] For more information on the potential criminal realignment in Mexico’s elections, see: Parker Asmann, “Mexico’s 2024 Election Could Spark Violent Criminal Realignments,” InSight Crime, 15 January 2024, https://insightcrime.org/news/mexico-2024-election-violent-criminal-realignments/

[ii] To read more about the project to track election violence by Data Cívica, see: “Voting Between Bullets, Understanding Criminal-Electoral Violence in Mexico,” https://votar-entre-balas.datacivica.org/

Image Information:

Image: Mexico has responded to security threats by deploying its army on the streets.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/isan/3740048960 
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 DEED.

Venezuela Seeks To Rectify Deteriorating Relations With Iran

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Venezuela’s former Foreign Minister, Jorge Arreaza, visits Iran.

“Venezuela is rushing to meet the terms of a three-year alliance that has involved hundreds of millions of dollars in oil trades and contracts.”

Once considered to be one of the Maduro regime’s staunchest allies, the Venezuela-Iran relationship has entered a rocky period.[i] Beyond military cooperation, Iran has long provided critical support to the Maduro regime in the areas of sanctions evasion and diluents for crude oil refining. According to the first excerpted article from the Venezuelan daily El Nacional, the bilateral relationship began to deteriorate when the West partially lifted oil sanctions on Venezuela following pledges for freer and fairer presidential elections this year. The article reports that the Maduro regime shifted production and export to Western markets, falling woefully behind in its scheduled oil deliveries to Iran. The article also details that part of an earlier three-year agreement aimed at sanctions evasion saw Iran offload much of Venezuela’s sanctioned crude.[ii] The second excerpted article, from the business-focused Venezuelan news outlet Banca y Negocios, cites people familiar with the deal that helped boost Venezuela’s crude exports and mitigate fuel shortages while under previous sanctions. Under the deal, Iran also committed to renovating several of Venezuela’s large oil refineries. The Maduro regime’s decision to abandon the terms of its agreement with Iran has irked Iranian officials, according to the reporting by Banca y Negocios. At the same time, it speculates that the Maduro regime is motivated to return to the Iran deal as it anticipates the return of Western sanctions, having failed to comply with its prior commitments toward freer and fairer presidential elections. Returning to this agreement with Iran will be critical for the Maduro regime to survive the possible reimposition of Western sanctions on its oil sector.

Sources:

“Venezuela se apresura a mejorar su relación con Irán mientras se avecinan sanciones de EEUU (Venezuela rushes to improve its relationship with Iran as US sanctions loom),” El Nacional (Venezuelan daily focused on the politics of the Maduro regime), 13 March 2024. https://www.elnacional.com/economia/venezuela-se-apresura-a-mejorar-su-relacion-con-iran-mientras-se-avecinan-sanciones-de-ee-uu/  

Iran and Venezuela are trying to rebuild an oil alliance that began to crumble last year after Venezuela fell behind in oil trades…A review of PDVSA data and shipping documents shows that Venezuela fell behind on payments to Iran, a shortfall that worsened when the United States began issuing licenses in late 2022. Those authorizations led the state firm to reallocate shipments…to save the partnership, Venezuela is rushing to meet the terms of a three-year alliance that has involved hundreds of millions of dollars in oil trades and contracts. Nicolás Maduro’s government is trying to settle outstanding debt by accelerating deliveries of heavy crude oil and fuel shipments to Iran.

“Venezuela busca mejorar su relación con Irán tras presentar retrasos en el intercambio petrolero (Venezuela seeks to improve its relationship with Iran after presenting delays in the oil exchange),” Banca y Negocios (a Venezuelan digital portal focused on financial and economic reporting), 12 March 2024. https://www.bancaynegocios.com/venezuela-busca-mejorar-su-relacion-con-iran-tras-presentar-retrasos-en-el-intercambio-petrolero/    Six people familiar with the matter stated that the agreement between both nations helped boost crude oil exports and alleviate the fuel problem that Venezuela suffered…the possible reimposition of sanctions by the United States would make the alliance between Venezuela and Iran essential to keeping the Venezuelan oil sector afloat…Venezuela is rushing to comply with the agreement and pay off the debt, amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars in oil exchanges and contracts, by accelerating the delivery of heavy hydrocarbons and fuel to the nation located in the Middle East.

Notes:

[i] For more historical background on the importance of the bilateral relationship, see: Moises Rendón and Claudia Fernandez, “The Fabulous Five: How Foreign Actors Prop Up the Maduro Regime in Venezuela,” CSIS Policy Brief, 19 October 2020, https://www.csis.org/analysis/fabulous-five-how-foreign-actors-prop-maduro-regime-venezuela

[ii] For more information on the deal signed between Iran and Venezuela, see: Deisy Buitrago and Vivian Sequera, “Iran, Venezuela Eye Trade Increase, Sign Petrochemical Deal,” Reuters, 12 June 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/iranian-president-caracas-kicking-off-regional-tour-2023-06-12/

Image Information:

Image: Venezuela’s former Foreign Minister, Jorge Arreaza, visits Iran.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Venezuela%E2%80%99s_Top_Diplomat_Visits_Iran-9.jpg  
Attribution: CC-BY-4.0.

Iran Vaunts Benefits of State-Owned Construction Company

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IRGC Commander-in-Chief Hossein Salami and Commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters Brigadier General Abdolreza Abed touring preparations for the Grand Mosalla Mosque of Tehran, IRNA (State Media) in March 2024.

“The enemy wanted to prove that ‘we can’t,’ and we had to prove that ‘we can,’ therefore, we were able to overcome the sanctions policy with the power of Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters.”

Iran claims it has been able to circumvent sanctions thanks to an infrastructure entity blacklisted by the United States: the Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Company (KAA). In an address published by state-aligned outlet Moniban News, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami cheered: “The enemy wanted to prove that ‘we can’t,’ and we had to prove that ‘we can,’ therefore, we were able to overcome the sanctions policy with the power of Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters.”

Established during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), KAA functions as the IRGC’s lead contractor for civilian construction projects as well as its nuclear and ballistic missile projects. This resulted in its blacklist designation by the U.S. Department of the Treasury in 2010, given that its subsidiaries are known to funnel money to the IRGC and are used to fund its activities at home and abroad.[i] In the first excerpted article Salami noted that the KAA has helped the country be more independent and is a “powerful response” to sanctions playing a role in at least thirty sectors, including road and urban development, energy, marine, and oil sectors, and hospital construction. The KAA is considered one of the three main pillars of the IRGC-run economy. (The others are the Basij Cooperative Foundation and IRGC Cooperative Foundation.) Beyond its ability to help Iran circumvent sanctions, KAA has played an important role related to educational and employment opportunities. As per the second excerpted article from the Iranian state-run Entekhab News, Salami also emphasized that KAA has provided opportunities for university students not just in the field of engineering but all higher degrees. Additionally, it has prevented brain drain, a historic problem for Iran that has only increased in recent years due to the dire state of the Iranian economy due to U.S. sanctions and systemic mismanagement and corruption. While Iranian officials tend to fluctuate on whether U.S. sanctions on the country have impacted the economy, the recent comments by the IRGC Commander about the KAA seem to confirm that the punitive measures are not putting the necessary strain on the clerical establishment to change its behavior in the region.

Sources:

“سردار سلامی: بدلیل قدرت قرارگاه سازندگی خاتم الانبیا (ص) از تحریم عبور کردیم (General Salami: Due to the strength of Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters, we overcame sanctions),” Moniban News (State-aligned news. outlet), 3 March 2024.

https://www.moniban.ir/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C-3/203934-%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%AF%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%84-%D9%82%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%AA-%D9%82%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B1%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%87-%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%AF%DA%AF%DB%8C-%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%A8%DB%8C%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%85-%D8%B9%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%B1-%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%AF%DB%8C%D9%85

Major General Salami added: One of the biggest things the construction headquarters did was refuting the enemy’s particular thinking in this regard. The enemy wanted to prove that ‘we can’t’, and we had to prove that ‘we can,’ therefore, we were able to overcome the sanctions policy with the power of Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters and jihadist bodies like the headquarters.

In explaining the hostile sanctions of Iran’s enemies, the IRGC commander stated: The sanctions policy was not a subjective and unrealistic policy, but rather an operational policy of the enemy, and it was completely objective, real, and tangible. But Islamic Iran, with the jihadist forces of Khatam al-Anbiya, was able to surpass and defeat the enemies of the Iranian nation.

In explaining the ethos of the Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters, he said: The ethos of the Khatam headquarters is not just providing technical work, but rather this headquarters is the heart of the revolution and its ethos is to preserve the political independence of the country, to restore the national self-confidence, and actually making the country not rely on the presence of foreigners, and follows this policy text in its basic actions, and for this reason, it undertakes great works and accepts risks…

Today, the Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters is playing a role in at least thirty various sectors: road and urban development, energy, marine, oil, hospital construction and unique buildings, and the subway.

The commander-in-chief of the IRGC states: The Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters has expanded in various specialized fields, which is a powerful response to the enemy’s sanctions.

“فرمانده کل سپاه: قرارگاه خاتم‌الانبیا جلوی فرار مغز‌ها را گرفت (IRGC Commander-in-chief: Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters prevented the minds from escaping),” Entekhab News (state-run media), 3 March 2023.

https://www.entekhab.ir/fa/news/768073/%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%DA%A9%D9%84-%D8%B3%D9%BE%D8%A7%D9%87-%D9%82%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B1%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%87-%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%85%E2%80%8C%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%A8%DB%8C%D8%A7-%D8%AC%D9%84%D9%88%DB%8C-%D9%81%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%85%D8%BA%D8%B2%E2%80%8C%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%DA%AF%D8%B1%D9%81%D8%AA

General Salami emphasized that the Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters has prevented elite minds from leaving the country. He said: The Khatam headquarters has provided a wide and modern field for technical and industrial elites of our country, and every engineer and doctor with any degree of education can fulfill their dreams during their time at university at the Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters.

Notes:

[i] The Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters was designated in 2010 by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. See: “Treasury Targets Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” U.S. Department of the Treasury, 10 February 2010. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/tg539

Image Information:

Image: IRGC Commander-in-Chief Hossein Salami and Commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters Brigadier General Abdolreza Abed touring preparations for the Grand Mosalla Mosque of Tehran, IRNA (State Media) in March 2024.
Source: https://www.irna.ir/news/85406994/%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B4%D9%85%D9%86-%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF-%D9%85%D9%84%D8%AA-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%B2%D9%87-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C-%D8%AE%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%87-%D9%86%D8%B4%DB%8C%D9%86
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

Iranian Navy Conducts Ballistic Missile Launches From Warship

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“The moment the Dezful ballistic missile is fired from the Shahid Mahdavi warship in the form of a launch container,” Telegram video screenshot, 13 February 2024

“Nowhere is safe for powers who seek to threaten our security.”

Iran has successfully test-fired two unidentified long-range ballistic missiles with a range of 1,700 kilometers (1,056 miles) from the Shahid Mahdavi, a converted cargo ship operating in the Gulf of Oman. According to the excerpted article published by the news outlet Mehr News Agency, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander-in-Chief Hossein Salami commented on the first-time launches with a warning: “Nowhere is safe for powers who seek to threaten our security.” The Shahid Mahdavi functions as a multipurpose aircraft carrier capable of carrying an array of military hardware, including air defense systems, drones, radars, and missiles.[i] The ballistic missiles reportedly hit targets in the Kavir Desert in central Iran.

Iran has the most extensive and diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East and North Africa. It is also the only country to possess a 2,000-kilometer range missile without a nuclear weapon capability.[ii] Iranian officials maintain that Tehran’s decision to acquire ballistic missiles was prompted by the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) in order to deter future missile attacks by enemy countries.[iii] Calling the launch a “success,” Salami was quoted in the first excerpted article as saying that “the range of influence of [Iran’s] sea power has increased to any desired point.”[iv] The second excerpted article from the Iranian media source Khabar Online reports that Salami highlighted that the IRGC is “determined to powerfully defend national security, national interests, and the achievements” of Iran. As tensions in the region remain elevated as part of the Gaza war, and as Iran-backed Houthi rebels continue to attack ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, this new development underscores what happens when Tehran is unchecked by the international community.

Sources:

“شلیک موشک بالستیک دوربرد از ناو جنگی سپاه (Launch of long-range ballistic missile from IRGC warship),” Mehr News Agency (semi-official news agency owned by Iranian government’s Islamic Development Organization), 12 February 2024.

https://www.mehrnews.com/news/6022735/%D8%B4%D9%84%DB%8C%DA%A9-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B4%DA%A9-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%AA%DB%8C%DA%A9-%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%88-%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF%DB%8C-%D8%B3%D9%BE%D8%A7%D9%87

Referring to the strength of the IRGC Navy, Major General Salami stated: Our offensive power and naval defense, with the arrival of a multitude of drones, cruise missiles, and even ballistic missiles with the ability to target combat vessels at sea, are very complex and show an interweaving of a combination of up-to-date, advanced, and modern capabilities.

He continued: “In the IRGC Navy, we had new achievements. The first issue was the joint work between the Air Force and IRGC Navy with the launch of a long-range ballistic missile from a warship that was successfully achieved, and with this new success, the range of influence of our sea power has increased to any desired point.”

The IRGC commander-in-chief, also referring to the other capabilities of the IRGC Navy, emphasized: “The oceanliner (warships) can appear anywhere in the oceans, and naturally, when they can launch missiles, nowhere is safe for powers who seek to threaten our security.”

“شلیک موشک بالستیک دوربرد سپاه پاسداران از روی یک ناو جنگی به روایت سردار سلامی (Firing a Revolutionary Guards long-range ballistic missile on a warship according to General Salami),” Khabar Online (Iranian news website affiliated with reformist political factions), 12 February 2024.

https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/1872279/%D8%B4%D9%84%DB%8C%DA%A9-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B4%DA%A9-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%AA%DB%8C%DA%A9-%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D8%B3%D9%BE%D8%A7%D9%87-%D9%BE%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%B1%D9%88%DB%8C-%DB%8C%DA%A9-%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%88-%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87

According to Khabar Online News Agency, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander-in-Chief General Hossein Salami said in a televised interview with the Revolutionary Guards program on Channel One: “In the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, we are always ready to give our lives for the great Iranian nation and are determined to powerfully defend national security, national interests, and the achievements of the Islamic revolution and must stand against all threats and dangers with all our strength and prevent the formation of new equilibriums in the field of the country’s national security.”

Notes:

[i] The test launch on the Shahid Mahdavi, which was released on video, was a joint project between the IRGC Navy (IRGCN) and Air Force. The type of ballistic missiles used in the exercise was not verified, as several state media outlets have named various missiles with an array of ranges.

[ii] Michael Elleman, “Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program,” Iran Primer, 13 January 2021. https://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/irans-ballistic-missile-program

[iii] Kamran Taremi, “Ballistic Missiles in Iran’s Military Thinking,” Wilson Center, 14 October 2023. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/ballistic-missiles-irans-military-thinking

[iv] United Nations Security Council Resolution, UNSCR 2231, which once constrained Iran’s ballistic missile-related tests and transfers, expired in October 2023. For additional information, see: “Arms embargo on Iran expires despite US opposition,” Al Jazeera, 18 October 2023. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/18/arms-embargo-on-iran-expires-despite-us-opposition

Image Information:

Image: “The moment the Dezful ballistic missile is fired from the Shahid Mahdavi warship in the form of a launch container,” Telegram video screenshot, 13 February 2024
Source: https://t.me/SEPAHCYBERY/83945
Attribution: IRGC Cyber Telegram Channel

Iranian Self-Sufficiency in Aircraft Spare Parts May Benefit Sanctioned States

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Inspecting Airbus jet engines, April 2022

“Some countries that were sanctioned… are coming to Iran and entrusting their planes to Iranian experts.”

Iran’s air transportation industry is under stress due to international sanctions.[i] In response to the sanctions, the Mehr News Agency reports that Iran’s Ministry of Defense has developed the industrial and technical capacity to develop spare aircraft parts and conduct maintenance on critical systems like aircraft engines.[ii] While this follows a known pattern of Iranian claims to immunize themselves from international sanctions, the current iteration differs because Iranian officials openly say they will use their new capacity to help other countries subject to international sanctions.

The willingness to help Russia or other countries evade sanctions, for example, by shipping drones to Russia, signals both a sense of impunity among Iranian officials but could also reflect growing substance to Iran’s alliances with other states that find themselves international pariahs. For Iran to help Russia service its leased Boeing or Airbus aircraft fleshes out bilateral relations beyond simply a one-way drone trade. Iran’s stated willingness to bypass sanctions to maintain or potentially upgrade Russian aircraft can have broad ramifications on the operational environment, not only in the Middle East but elsewhere around the world. First, Iranian efforts to help subjected states bypass sanctions blunt a major tool of international diplomacy meant to deter rogue or aggressive behavior. Second, supplying sanctioned states much-needed aviation hardware would be a boon to Iranian defense industries both financially and by allowing them greater opportunities to reverse engineer platforms such as the Sukhoi-35S [R1].[iii] Finally, money earned by Revolutionary Guard-run factories could also help support or subsidize Revolutionary Guard or proxy activities across the region.

Sources:

“خودکفایی ایران در ساخت قطعات هواپیماهای مسافربری”(Iran’s self-sufficiency in the manufacture of passenger plane parts),” Mehr News Agency (semi-official news agency owned by Iranian government’s Islamic Development Organization), 9 March 2024. https://www.mehrnews.com/news/6049371

In an interview with Mehr, Javad Mashayekh, with reference to Iran’s self-sufficiency in the field of manufacturing passenger aircraft parts that researchers and specialists in knowledge-based companies have achieved, stated, “In the field of commercial and passenger planes, Iran was once dependent on procurement of aircraft parts, even for maintenance but because of sanctions,
we were unable to procure parts from other international suppliers. The deputy of the scientific department of knowledge-based economy development added, “This is what happened after the imposition of sanctions: Some of Iran’s knowledge-based companies used their power to develop car parts, and repair and maintenance of aircraft engines locally.” Mashayekh also said that the most complex part of an aircraft is its engine and, he noted, maintenance requires a high degree of technical knowledge. We promise that in these fields, our country has achieved self-sufficiency so we do not need to send out planes to foreign countries for almost any kind of repair or to have maintenance done there.

He continued, “In fact, we are currently witnessing that some countries that were sanctioned for various reasons and are not able to supply parts and get maintenance services are coming to Iran and entrusting their planes to Iranian experts…. For example, Russia has suffered many sanctions in the aviation sector due to the Ukraine crisis, and for this reason, it has concluded good contracts for maintenance services with Iranian knowledge-based companies.”

Notes:

[i] In 2016 Iran sought to purchase nearly 200 passenger jets split between Boeing and Airbus. At the time, the Iranian government justified the deals as an air safety matter. However, ambitions for a new fleet faltered as seating capacity of the new jets outstripped Iranian passenger traffic projections. Critics claimed the proposed deals were meant to provide spare parts to keep Iran’s military aircraft aloft. While Boeing and Airbus planes do not contain parts suitable for jet fighters, passenger jets and military cargo planes can share many parts. Boeing ultimately cancelled its deal, while Airbus delivered only four planes.

[ii] For discussion of Iranian turbojet engine development, see: Michael Rubin, “Iran: New Heavy Engines on the Drawing Board,” OE Watch, November 2016. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-past-issues/195245/download

[iii] For discussion of the Iranian desire for Sukhoi-35s, see: Michael Rubin, “Iran Wants Sukhoi-35 Fighters From Russia,” OE Watch, 10-2022. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2022/iran-wants-sukhoi-35-fighters-from-russia/

Image information:

Image: Inspecting Airbus jet engines, April 2022
Source: https://media.mehrnews.com/d/2024/03/08/3/4894679.jpg?ts=1709893408775
Attribution: Mehr News Agency

Iran Navy Upgrades Bell-212 Helicopters

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Iran Helicopter Support and Renovation Company display of upgraded Bell-212, in Tehran in March 2024. Iran’s Navy has announced that it will equip its Bell-212 helicopters with both SONAR and knockoffs of Hellfire missiles.

“This new missile was nicknamed the Iranian Hellfire.”

Iran’s Navy has announced that it will equip its Bell-212 [R1] helicopters with both SONAR and air to ground missiles, copies of the U.S. made Hellfire missiles. While it appears to exaggerate its mastery of SONAR, its reverse engineering of the Hellfire appears real.

As the Iranian Navy expands its footprint, it relies increasingly on helicopters to project power.[i] The excerpted article from the news portal Khabar Online, describes a Defense Ministry exhibition of new products held at the Iran Helicopter Support and Renovation Company. Headlining the exhibit was an upgraded Bell-212 helicopter, modified to conduct anti-submarine operations and to carry Ghaem-114 missiles, an Iranian copy of the U.S.-made AGM-114 Hellfire air-to-ground missile.

SONAR is important to Iran. Even though the Persian Gulf is both narrow and shallow with an average depth of 100 feet and a maximum depth of just 295 feet, Iranian defense officials worry that enemy submarines can approach their shores and ships without detection. Should war erupt between Israel and Iran, for example, submarine-launched missiles would be a major component of any Israeli attack on Iran. Detecting submarines and developing anti-submarine warfare is increasingly important to the Iranian Navy as it operates farther from its shores. The distance between the Iranian naval base at Bandar Abbas and the Bab el-Mandeb, a strategic waterway between Yemen and Djibouti where Iran currently operates, for example, is nearly 1,700 nautical miles. This is outside the defensive layers of speedboats and shore-based missiles the Iranian Navy rely upon closer to its shores.  It is unclear, however, if the Iranian announcement of its helicopter-borne SONAR system is real. While Iranian press photos showing the helicopter at the Tehran exhibit are new, photographs accompanying Iranian media coverage depicting a Bell-212 deploying SONAR at sea are two years old and depict a U.S. Navy helicopter. As such, Iranian Navy helicopter-equipped SONAR is more likely in development.

The Ghaem-114 missile likely represents a truer capability, albeit one that is not new. In July 2021, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Forces unveiled a helicopter-launched Ghaem-114 Hellfire copy that it billed as an anti-tank missile with a range of six miles. In April 2023, the regular Iranian Army unveiled the “Shafagh” missile that it also likened to the U.S. manufactured Hellfire.[ii] The current announcement likely reflects the standardization of the Ghaem-114 across Iranian services. Iran also claims that its Ghaem-114 has both thermal and laser guidance with a 50-kilogram warhead. Iranian production of a Hellfire knock-off could have substantive tactical ramifications across the region. While Hamas and the Houthis do not have helicopters, the Iranian military could use lifting or non-enforcement of sanctions to provide these groups helicopters that could fire Ghaem-114s. The Houthis could equip drones with Ghaem-114s, while both Syria and Lebanese Hezbollah, both of which operate helicopters, could immediately introduce the Ghaem-114 to the Israeli frontier and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Sources:

“تجهیز این بالگرد ارتش به سونار و موشک قائم ۱۱۴ “(Equipping this [Bell-212] Helicopter with Sonar and Ghaem-114 missiles),” KhabarOnline.ir (general news website affiliated with reformist political factions), 4 March 2024. https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/1880466

Iran Helicopter Support and Renovation Company hosted an exhibition of Iran Ministry of Defense achievement. During this exhibition, the Ministry of Defense displayed some achievements in helicopters, including upgrading Iranian Navy [Bell-] 212 helicopters.

One of these achievements was upgrading the Iranian Navy’s [Bell-] 212 helicopters to equip them with sonar to detect submarines and deal with surface vessels…. Sonar technology enables the identification of ships and submarines through the emission of underwater soundwaves and determines their direction and distance. Submarines, surface ships, helicopters and maritime and anti-submarine patrol aircraft use sonar to discover their targets underwater.

Iran has SH-3 specialized anti-submarine helicopters in its air fleet that it purchased before the [1979 Islamic] Revolution and they can both detect all types of submarines and launch Mark 46 torpedoes. In addition, the [Bell-] 212 helicopters have been equipped with Ghaem-114 missiles to neutralize surface vessels and an electro-optical system to detect and targets vessels night and day….

In January 2020, during the delivery of overhauled helicopters to the armed forces, the Aerospace Force of the Army of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps displayed [Bell-] 214 helicopters with Ghaem-114 missiles, similar to Hellfires.  Although no detailed information about this missile was published, this new missile was nicknamed the Iranian Hellfire and many observers saw the development of this missile in the context of the design of new air-to-ground missiles….Equipping Navy helicopters with Ghaem-114 missiles increases the ability of this force to support amphibious operations seeking to capture the enemy coast and to counter small and fast enemy vessels or to deal with piracy in the Gulf of Aden.

Notes:

[i] Iran has no aircraft carriers, but it designs its frigates to accommodate helicopters as a means both to project power onto land from sea and to defend Iranian ships. For discussion of upgrading and rehabilitating Iranian helicopters, see: Michael Rubin, “Iran: Reconstruction and Overhaul of Helicopters,” OE Watch, 03 2021. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/382672

[ii] For discussion of Shafagh missile unveiling see: Michael Rubin, “Iran Installs New Precision Missiles On Army Helicopters,” OE Watch, 05 2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/iran-installs-new-precision-missiles-on-army-helicopters/

Image Information:

Image: Iran Helicopter Support and Renovation Company display of upgraded Bell-212, in Tehran in March 2024. Iran’s Navy has announced that it will equip its Bell-212 helicopters with both SONAR and knockoffs of Hellfire missiles.
Source: https://media.khabaronline.ir/d/2024/03/04/4/6000265.jpg?ts=1709559703000
Attribution: KhabarOnline.ir

Russia Celebrates 10th Anniversary of Crimean Annexation

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A view of the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge, linking Crimea to Russia.

“[The railway] will be another, alternative road instead of the Crimean Bridge,” said President Vladimir Putin.

On 18 March, Russians celebrated the tenth anniversary of their “reunification” with Crimea and the city of Sevastopol. One of the Kremlin’s major priorities for the peninsula was the construction of a $2.5 billion land bridge, known as the Kerch Bridge, to link the annexed region with the Russia-controlled provinces of eastern Ukraine. At 19 kilometers (11.8 miles), the bridge is Europe’s longest. The excerpted feature article in pro-Kremlin newspaper Kommersant, celebrated Russia’s modernization of the peninsula, including a gleaming new $350 million international airport at Simferopol shaped like a sea wave; the extension of a new water pipeline; a large mosque for Crimea’s Tatars; and refurbished statues to commemorate what Russians call the “Crimean Spring.” The article notes that the Kerch Bridge has come under attack by Ukraine at least twice during the special military operation. As an insurance policy—announced at a rally on Red Square to honor President Vladimir Putin’s March presidential victory and the 10th anniversary of the annexation of Crimea—Russia will restore a railway linking Rostov-on-Don with Donetsk and Mariupol, eventually reaching Sevastopol, according to the excerpted article in nationalist online newspaper Lenta.ru. The announced railway connection could suggest that the Russian authorities are concerned about the vulnerability of the Kerch Bridge to attack. Some Western analysts have called on Ukraine’s military to target it with advanced missiles[i] The railway extension project could simply be meant to symbolize the connection of mainland Russia with its annexed peninsula. Either way, the Ukrainian military will have an additional target as it seeks to take back Crimea and weaken Russia’s grip on the peninsula.

Sources:

“Крым десятилетней выдержки: Как обжился полуостров в составе России, (Crimea after 10 Years of Improvements: How the Peninsula has Taken Shape within Russia),” Kommersant.ru (center-right Kremlin newspaper), 17 March 2024. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6535646

After the “Crimean Spring” the peninsula was in a land blockade, so the construction of a transport corridor through the Kerch Strait was declared a priority. On March 19, 2014, President Vladimir Putin instructed to connect new entities with the “big land” by rail and roads. The construction of the bridge worth 228 billion rubles began in February 2016 and lasted a little more than two years. The 19 km long structure was the longest in Europe. After the start of the special operation, the crossing was twice attacked by Ukraine.

“Путин анонсировал появление альтернативы Крымскому мосту” (Putin announced the emergence of an alternative to the Crimean Bridge), Lenta.ru (right-wing nationalist online newspaper), 18 March 2024. https://lenta.ru/news/2024/03/18/putin-anonsiroval-poyavlenie-alternativy-krymskomu-mostu/

The restored railway from Rostov-on-Don to Donetsk, Mariupol and Berdyansk will be an alternative to the Crimean Bridge. Its appearance was announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin at a rally-concert in honor of the tenth anniversary of the reunification of Crimea with Russia, his words are quoted by the TASS agency.

The Head of State noted that the country will continue to restore the railway, which goes from the Rostov region through Donbass and Novorossiya. The President promised that the railway trains would soon go to Sevastopol. “And it will be another, alternative road instead of the Crimean Bridge,” he added. Putin also stressed that Russia and Crimea will go together and further hand in hand. He pointed out that this will be proved not in words, but in deeds, which will only make the country and the peninsula stronger.In November, Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin reported that the new railway from the Rostov region to Crimea, which will become an alternative to the route along the Crimean Bridge, is at the design stage.

Notes:

1 Ben Hodges, Led Klosky, Robert Person, Eric Williamson, “Putin’s Weak Link to Crimea: Kyiv Should Target the Kerch Bridge—but Needs Missiles to Take It Out,” Foreign Affairs, 5 December 2023. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/putins-weak-link-crimea

Image Information:

Image: A view of the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge, linking Crimea to Russia.
Source: Rosavtodor.ru https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Crimean_Bridge#/media/File:Крымский_мост_13_сентября_2019_года_(1).jpg
Attribution: CC By 4.0

Russia Invoking Heroic Military Heritage To Frame Current War

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The city cemetery of Kherson contains a military plot with 122 Soviet graves from the Second World War. The soldiers buried here, belonging to the 49th Guards Rifle Division and the 295th Infantry Division, fell while liberating the city in 1944.

“This is how our valiant warriors reminded the invaders that victory will be ours, just like 80 years ago.”

Russia continues to use memories of past battles and heroic sacrifice to fuel domestic support for its war in Ukraine. According to the excerpted article published by Russian news outlet RTVI, a detachment of Russian soldiers recently conducted a “daring raid” across the Dnieper River, attacking Ukrainian troops near Kherson before retreating across the Dnieper River. Although this story is barely newsworthy considering the larger and more significant battles for Mariupol, Bakhmut, and Avdeevka, it illustrates Moscow’s determination to attach Russia’s rich and heroic military history to the current conflict in Ukraine. Sources quoted in the article claim, “up to 30 [Ukrainian] personnel lost,” and that Russian troops returned “without irreparable losses.” However, the article compares the raid to the  strategic seizing of Kherson from the Germans in March 1944 by General Margelov and the 49th Guards Rifle Division. The 49th was awarded the title “Kherson” an honorific denoting the unit’s role in liberating the city from the Germans, while Margelov was awarded the title of Hero of the Soviet Union. Margolev was later instrumental in developing Soviet paratroop forces and became known as the father of Russian airborne forces.[i] The reference to Margelov in  the article was to connect Russian actions on today’s Ukrainian battlefields with past Russian battlefield heroics. This particular historical comparison augments the recent renaming of the Northern Military District to be the Leningrad Military District, and the renaming of Artic icebreakers to honor Lenin and Stalin.[ii] This is part of a broader Russian effort to use its military history, and Russia’s ongoing heroic fight for survival, to strengthen Putin’s position on Ukraine domestically.[iii] It is not for nothing that Russia refers to the Second World War as The Great Patriot War. Indeed, Russian invocation honoring the past appears to be an integral part of Moscow’s IO campaign surrounding its special military operation in Ukraine. Using Margolev as an example illustrates Russia’s position that this land has been fought for and liberated once before and belongs to Russia.

Sources:

“Сальдо рассказал о «дерзком рейде» на подконтрольный ВСУ правый берег Днепра (Saldo spoke about the “daring raid” on the right bank of the Dnieper controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces),” RTVI (Russian news service), 13 March 2024. https://rtvi.com/news/saldo-rasskazal-o-derzkom-rejde-na-podkontrolnyj-vsu-pravyj-beregdnepra/?utm_source=24smi&utm_medium=referral&utm_term=10949&utm_content=6021008&utm_campaign=14335&utm_referrer=24smi.info

On the night of March 13, an assault group of employees from the Dnepr group of troops conducted a “daring raid” on the right bank of the Dnieper River, said the governor of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo. According to him, the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered losses.

“Last night, a joint assault group of fighters from the Dnepr group of troops carried out a daring raid on the right bank of the river,” Saldo wrote in his Telegram channel.

According to the governor, marines, paratroopers and volunteers disembarked from watercraft at the base of the Antonovsky Bridge, “the enemy did not have time to react in time.” The military destroyed several positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, “including a UAV control center and an electronic warfare station, observation, communications and temporary concentration of manpower points,” Saldo wrote.

He added that the Russian military after this “managed to retreat to the left bank without irreparable losses,” and the Ukrainian side lost up to 30 military personnel.Saldo emphasized that “the landing force landed at the same place where in 1944 Margelov’s soldiers captured the first bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper, which became the key to breaking the fascist defense.” “This is how our valiant warriors reminded the invaders that victory will be ours, just like 80 years ago,” the governor is confident.

OE Insight Summary:

In effort to instill patriotism and increase domestic support for its operation in Ukraine, Russia compares the special military operation to past battlefield heroics, usually from World War II.

Notes:

[i] See: “Troops of Uncle Vasya. Why General Margelov is called the father of Airborne,” Rusreality, 27 Dec 2018. https://rusreality.com/2018/12/27/troops-of-uncle-vasya-why-general-margelov-called-the-father-of-airborne/ and also Vasily Margelov, Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Margelov

[ii] See Les Grau, “Russia Changes Arctic Icebreaker Names To Honor History,” OE Watch, 02-2024.  https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/russia-changes-arctic-icebreaker-names-to-honor-history/

[iii] Multiple western organizations track Russian use of its history to maintain domestic popular support. A RUSI publication noted that “Kremlin narratives about the Soviet Union’s role in the Second World War are uncritical, mythologised by the authorities. They have become an identifying feature of Russia’s foreign and domestic policy, based mostly around the Soviet Union’s heavy losses and military greatness.” See: Royal United Service Institute (RUSI), 27 July 2022. https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/how-russias-narratives-ukraine-reflect-its-existential-crisis

Image Information:

Image: The city cemetery of Kherson contains a military plot with 122 Soviet graves from the Second World War. The soldiers buried here, belonging to the 49th Guards Rifle Division and the 295th Infantry Division, fell while liberating the city in 1944.
Source: TracesofWar.com, https://www.tracesofwar.com/sights/9948/Soviet-War-Graves-Kherson-City-Cemetery.htm
Attribution: CC BY SA

Russia Bids Farewell to the Northern Military District

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“Given NATO’s desire to build up military potential near the Russian borders, as well as to expand the North Atlantic Alliance at the expense of Finland and Sweden, retaliatory measures are required to create an appropriate grouping of troops in Northwest Russia.”

The Russian Northern Military District is deactivated and the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts are back—albeit with changes to reflect Russia’s current security situation. According to the excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer, the restructuring of the Russian Northern Military District to the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts comes in response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.[i] With the move, the Northern Fleet, headquartered in Murmansk, is now “officially absorbed into a renewed Leningrad Military District.” St. Petersburg, Russia is again the command center of the extended Leningrad Military District.[ii] According to a defense expert quoted in the article, “as seen by Russia, it is necessary to improve the ability to fight full-scale land operations along the Finnish border and in the Baltic theatre of military operations.” The Northern Fleet will be subordinate to the Moscow Military District. These recent changes are more than just a re-ordering, as Russia continues its military reform and restructuring to give Russia an advantage in Ukraine and strengthen its position vis-a-vis a much longer frontier with NATO given the inclusion of Sweden and Finland.

Sources:

Thomas Nilsen “Putin signs northwestern regions into Leningrad military district,”The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 26 February 2024. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2024/02/putins-signs-northwestern-regions-leningrad-military-district

Vladimir Putin on Monday signed a decree reestablishing the Soviet-era Moscow and Leningrad military districts which means an end to the Northern Fleet as a military district.

With the move, the Northern Fleet is now officially absorbed into a renewed Leningrad Military District. The Northern Fleet Joint Strategic Command was given the status of a military district on 1 January 2021, a move seen to mirror the importance of Russia’s Arctic regions. In geographical size, the Northern Fleet was until today the third largest of Russia’s five military districts. At the same time, what was the Western Military District is now split into the new Moscow and Leningrad districts.

The Leningrad Military District includes the Republic of Karelia, the Komi Republic, and the oblasts of Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Vologda, Kaliningrad, Leningrad, Novgorod and Pskov, as well as the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the City of St. Petersburg.

Dictator Putin’s decree was signed the same day as the Hungarian Parliament voted to ratify Sweden as NATO’s 32nd member state.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu last December said “retaliatory measures are required” as both Finland and Sweden join NATO.

“Given NATO’s desire to build up military potential near the Russian borders, as well as to expand the North Atlantic Alliance at the expense of Finland and Sweden, retaliatory measures are required to create an appropriate grouping of troops in Northwest Russia,” Shoigu said.

Katarzyna Zysk, a professor with the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS), agrees that the ongoing restructuring is linked to the fact that Russia has got a much longer land-border with NATO.

“The dividing of the Western Military District into the Moscow Military District and Leningrad Military District, as well as possibly subordinate the Northern Fleet to the latter, is a response to NATO enlargement in Northern Europe and expected further changes in allied defense posture,” Zysk previously said to the Barents Observer. She explains that seen with Russian eyes, it is necessary to improve the ability to fight full-scale land operations along the Finnish border and in the Baltic theatre of military operations.In addition to the new Leningrad- and Moscow military districts, Putin’s decree also adds the illegally occupied Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson as part of the Southern Military District. The changes in Russia’s military districts take effect from March 1, Putin wrote in his decree.

Notes:

[i] For an additional European perspective on the restructuring of its military districts, see: “Russia Restructures Military Districts Amid Warnings of NATO War,” Euronews. 27 February 2024. https://www.euronews.com/2024/02/27/russia-restructures-military-districts-amid-warnings-of-nato-war

[ii] After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the city of Leningrad was renamed St. Petersburg, but the regional oblast designation remained Leningrad.