PLAAF Sukhoi Su-30s like this one participated in Joint-Sword-2024B in October 2024.

“As China’s military drills around Taiwan increase, it is becoming harder to discern when Beijing might be transitioning from a training exercise to war.”

China’s military exercises, which include many incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zones (ADIZ), have begun to blur the lines between military exercises and actual war, according to the first article excerpt, published in the online newspaper Taiwan News. In May 2024, after Taiwan’s newly elected president, Lai Ching-te delivered a pro-independence speech, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched Joint-Sword-2024A, a series of exercises surrounding Taiwan and its outer island territories. China referred to these exercises as a “powerful punishment for separatist forces seeking independence.”[i] Five months later, while Taiwan celebrated National Day of the Republic of China (Taiwan Independence Day),[ii] the PLA launched Joint-Sword-2024B, during which they sent planes across the median line in the Taiwan Strait. This was another stern warning against Taiwan’s independence. The second excerpt published on Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense website noted the exercises lasted multiple days, with the biggest incursion taking place on 14 October. On that day, as many as 153 PLA aircraft, 14 PLAN vessels, and 12 official ships operating around Taiwan were detected, with 111 of the aircraft crossing the median line and entering Taiwan’s western, southwestern, and eastern ADIZ.

According to the Taiwan News article, Defense Minister Wellington Koo believes China is testing its ability to attack in various ways, including through gray zone tactics and cognitive operations, joint sea and air training, and targeted military exercises. Its gray zone tactics and cognitive operations can be seen in the ongoing military exercises, which could instill a sense of complacency within Taiwan and among its allies as Chinese military exercises surrounding Taiwan become more normalized. However, one day, a training scenario could unexpectedly escalate into all-out war.[iii] Koo warns that as the scale of China’s exercises grows, it will be increasingly difficult to discern when the PLA is transitioning from “training to a large exercise, and from a large exercise to war.”

Sources:

Lily LaMattina, “Taiwan Says China’s Growing Military Activity Makes Exercise and War Harder to Differentiate,” Taiwan News (Taiwan-based English language news service), 19 September 2024. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5938651

As China’s military drills around Taiwan increase, it is becoming harder to discern when Beijing might be transitioning from a training exercise to war, said Defense Minister Wellington Koo (顧立雄).

Koo stressed, “We must consider how we differentiate between peacetime and wartime.” He said that as the scale of China’s exercises grows, it will be more difficult to discern when Chinese troops are transitioning from “training to a large exercise, and from a large exercise to war.”

Taiwan has counted 2,076 incursions this year by China’s People’s Liberation Army into its air defense identification zone (ADIZ). Beijing has also sent non-military government ships such as coastguard, marine research, and maritime safety vessels.

“Ministry of National Defense, ROC(Taiwan),” Ministry of National Defense website (official website of the Ministry of National Defense), accessed 17 October 2024. https://x.com/mondefense?lang=en

October 10: Taiwan celebrates its National Day of the Republic of China.

14 October (up until 0600): 153 PLA aircraft, 14 PLAN vessels, and 12 official ships operating around Taiwan detected. 111 of the aircraft crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s western, southwestern, and eastern ADIZ.

Notes:

[i] For more information, see Cindy Hurst, “Taiwan President’s Inaugural Speech Prompts Chinese Military Drills,” OE Watch, 07-2024. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/taiwan-presidents-inaugural-speech-prompts-chinese-military-drills/

[ii] National Day of the Republic of China commemorates the start of the Wuchang Uprising, overthrowing the Qing Dynasty in 1911. Shortly after, on 1 January 1920, they established the Republic of China. In 1949, pushed out of power by Mao Zedong’s Communists, the Republic of China relocated to Taiwan.

[iii] There are similarities between the recent Chinese exercises and events that led up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine when Russian forces began massing troops near the borders of Ukraine, calling it military exercises, right before the invasion. “Timeline: The Events Leading Up to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” Reuters, 1 March 2022. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/events-leading-up-russias-invasion-ukraine-2022-02-28/

Image Information:

Image: PLAAF Sukhoi Su-30s like this one participated in Joint-Sword-2024B in October 2024.
Source: Dmitriy Pichugin, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Air_Force#/media/File:PLAAF_Sukhoi_Su-30_at_Lipetsk-2_(modified).jpg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0

Chinese icebreaker Xue Long 2 docked at Victoria Harbour, Hong Kong, 2024.

“The research icebreaker that is owned and managed by the Chinese Polar Institute is on its annual Arctic expedition…. But the state-owned vessel is also on a political mission.  The visit to Murmansk is the first ever of its kind and comes as relations between Murmansk and Beijing get increasingly intimate.”

China keeps pushing itself into the Arctic, and Russia is partnering in the effort. The excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer notes that the Chinese icebreaker Xue Long 2 recently visited the Russian Arctic port of Murmansk for the first time. The article notes that the Xue Long 2 is on a scientific mission but also suggests that there is a political mission and that the port call reflects the deepening of relations between Moscow and Beijing. China is eager to expand its presence in the Arctic and have access to its resources.[i] The docking of the Xue Long 2 will likely not be the last Chinese vessel in Russia’s Arctic waters: “Beijing is increasingly interested in the Arctic and is building new vessels designed for shipping through the remote and icy waters.”[ii]Under diplomatic, military, and economic pressure, Russia has thus far been pleased to oblige, granting China more access than before to Russian Arctic waters and ports.

Sources:

Atle Staalesen, “Chinese icebreaker makes port call in Murmansk,” The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 29 August 2024. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/2024/08/chinese-icebreaker-makes-port-call-murmansk

The Russian Arctic region actively seeks to strengthen ties with Beijing. This week, a Chinese icebreaker for the first time paid a visit to Murmansk.  The Xue Long 2 set out from the Chinese port city of Qingdao on the 7^th of July and subsequently set course for the Bering Strait.  Following its passage into the Chukchi Sea, the 122-meter-long ship is believed to have sailed towards the North Pole.  One and a half months later it sailed into the Kola Bay and moored in a downtown port.  Locals in the Russian Arctic city could see the vessel being assisted by tugs into the harbor area on the 28^th of August.

The research icebreaker that is owned and managed by the Chinese Polar Institute is on its annual Arctic expedition. About 100 expedition members take part in research geology and geophysics of the Arctic seabed and conduct investigations of atmospheric, sea ice and marine environments.

But the state-owned vessel is also on a political mission.  The visit to Murmansk is the first ever of its kind and comes as relations between Murmansk and Beijing get increasingly intimate.  In May 2023, Murmansk Governor Andrei Chibis paid a visit to Shanghai as part of a major Russian delegation to the China-Russia Business Forum.  During the event, a special emphasis was made on the development of the Northern Sea Route and new joint industries, among them in production and processing of minerals.

In September 2023, Chibis welcomed a Chinese business delegation to Murmansk. “We are entering a new level of partnership with China,” the regional leader said during the visit.  The Chinese businessmen representing port and shipping companies stated that they were interested in the development of the Northern Sea Route.  In August 2024, the Chinese MCC International Incorporation Ltd will join the development of the Kolmozerskoye lithium resources in the Kola Peninsula.

Beijing is increasingly interested in the Arctic and is building new vessels designed for shipping through the remote and icy waters. In early July this year, Chinese authorities officially commissioned its new icebreaking research vessel, the Jidi (“Polar”). At the same time, China is expanding its research activities in the far northern region, including in the Norwegian Arctic Archipelago of Svalbard.

Notes:

[i] See: Les Grau, China and Russia in Joint Venture To Mine Lithium in Arctic, OE Watch, 08-2024. (URL not yet available)

[ii] See: Les Grau, “Chinese Icebreaker Sails To The Arctic,” OE Watch, 09-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/chinese-icebreaker-sails-to-the-arctic/

Image Information:

Image: Chinese icebreaker Xue Long 2 docked at Victoria Harbour, Hong Kong, 2024.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MV_Xue_Long_2 – /media/File:202404_Xuelong-2_in_Hong_Kong.jpg

A People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) 8 round HQ-10 short range surface to air missile system shown on a Type 056 corvette used by both PLAN and Chinese Coast Guard. Other sources note this image as the 8 round FL-3000N short range surface to air missile. However, the FL-3000N is basically the export version of the PLAN HQ-10, with relatively the same capabilities.

“The fact is that this frigate is more like a technology verification platform. Through it, the PLA can test new technologies and designs on a smaller scale and accumulate experience for future large stealth ships.”

An image of a new stealth corvette or possibly light frigate[i] moored to a pier appearing on Chinese social media and blogs has drawn significant attention and speculation. According to the excerpted article published in the popular pro-government Chinese website Sohu, some observers speculate that the new warship will be classified as a Type-057 frigate and replace the Type-056. Despite being smaller than the Type-056, the Type-057 frigate incorporates a unique stealth design, featuring an integrated mast design that can significantly reduce enemy radar detection. The hull’s surface is smooth and inclined, with no edges or corners, which gives it a smaller optical and infrared signature, making it difficult to detect.[ii]

Notably, the ship fields what looks to be the Hongqi-10 short-range air defense missile launcher. However, according to the second excerpted article published on the tightly regulated website hosted by China’s largest multinational technology conglomerate, Tencent, some sources believe the apparatus could be a ship-borne laser weapon system used to counter threats from drones, missiles, and small speedboats. Laser weapons can attack targets at the speed of light, as the first article points out, which significantly improves the response time. Additionally, a high-energy weapon system operates without emitting detectable electromagnetic signals during operation, which further reduces the likelihood of being detected by the adversary, increasing its survivability.[iii]

However, the Type-057 likely lacks combat effectiveness because of its smaller design, which allows limited space for weapons. Hence, as the excerpted article from Sohu speculates, the ship’s existence could serve as a platform to test some of China’s newer technologies on a smaller scale and to gain experience for future large stealth ships, but at a lower cost. There is no evidence that the PLAN will ultimately populate its fleet with this new stealth frigate. However, at the very least, its presence, according to the Tencent article, has “already given people a glimpse of future warfare.”

Sources:  

“我国再添重器，解放军057隐形护卫舰再次亮相！台媒眼馋：科幻产物 (my country adds another heavy weapon, the PLA 057 stealth frigate makes its debut again! Taiwanese media are jealous: a science fiction product),” sohu.com (popular pro-government Chinese-language website targeting a youth and gaming readership), 1 September 2024. https://roll.sohu.com/a/805465679_121966179

It is speculated that this new warship will be named 057 frigate and will shoulder the heavy responsibility of replacing 056 frigate…

The biggest feature of this frigate is It is its unique stealth design – the surface of the hull is inclined and smooth, with almost no edges or corners. This design can not only effectively reduce the exposure of optical and infrared signals, but also significantly reduce the chance of being detected by radar and sonar. When facing enemy reconnaissance, it can almost “come without a trace and go without a trace”.

From a distance, it seems to be equipped with Hongqi 10 short-range air defense missiles. But upon closer inspection, this is most likely an advanced ship-borne laser weapon. This configuration will greatly enhance its survivability and combat capabilities in complex battlefield environments.

The introduction of laser cannons is actually a revolutionary advancement. This weapon is launched at the speed of light and hits the target instantly, which is a perfect solution for the modern battlefield that requires rapid response…

So, what is the significance of the existence of the Type 057? The fact is that this frigate is more like a technology verification platform. Through it, the PLA can test new technologies and designs on a smaller scale and accumulate experience for future large stealth ships. This approach not only reduces the risk of testing new technologies on full-scale warships, but also saves costs.

Source: Meng Yan, “解放军新型护卫舰亮相，一大装置让台媒直呼科幻 (The PLA Unveiled Its New Frigate, Large Device Prompts Taiwanese Media to Call It Science Fiction),” Tencent (China’s largest multinational technology conglomerate, operating within a tightly regulated media and tech environment), 08 September 2024. https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240906A07E7Z00

At the same time, the frigate adopts an integrated mast design. This integrated structure can significantly reduce radar reflection signals and improve stealth performance.

The most important thing is that an “unprecedented” device appeared on this stealth frigate, which looks similar to the HQ-10 ship-to-air missile launcher. U.S. media speculated that this might be a ship-borne laser cannon weapon system. Generally speaking, light stealth frigates undertake regional defense and maritime patrol missions and may face threats from drones, missiles and small speedboats. If equipped with laser cannons, they can attack targets at the speed of light, further improving the response speed.

Some analysts said that the emergence of this new stealth frigate not only means technological progress, but also a concrete manifestation of the strategic transformation of the Chinese Navy. Now that the Chinese Navy is shifting from coastal defense to blue water escort, this type of ship with advanced stealth technology and equipped with more lethal weapons will become an important pillar of the PLA’s future operations.

But it is different as a test ship. By testing and verifying key technologies such as the ship design and stealth design of the new generation of ships on board, it can lay the foundation for the birth of more advanced ships in the future.

Notes:

[i] There have been differing opinions on what type of ship this is. Some observers are referring to it as a corvette class and others as a frigate. The difference between the two classifications is that

[ii] For more information and an image of the ship, please see “China’s New Stealth Warship Unveiled: Possible Laser Weapon Testing Sparks Speculation,” Army Recognition Group website, 6 September 2024. https://armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2024/chinas-new-stealth-warship-unveiled-possible-laser-weapon-testing-sparks-speculation

[iii] An earlier report published on bulgarianmilitary.com, talks about China putting high-energy weapons on it Type 057 warship. See Boyko Nikolov, “China is Putting High-Energy Weapons on Its Type 057 Warship,” bulgarianmilitary.com, 8 February 2024. https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/02/08/china-is-putting-high-energy-weapons-on-its-type-057-warship/

Image Information:

Image: A People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) 8 round HQ-10 short range surface to air missile system shown on a Type 056 corvette used by both PLAN and Chinese Coast Guard. Other sources note this image as the 8 round FL-3000N short range surface to air missile. However, the FL-3000N is basically the export version of the PLAN HQ-10, with relatively the same capabilities.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HQ-10 – /media/File:Type_056_corvette_FL-3000N_8-round_SAM_launcher.jpg

“The biggest threat to China from the US Navy is nuclear submarines. Therefore, the inclusion of the Type 075 amphibious assault ship into the Shandong carrier group is a rehearsal for such a scenario.”

On 9 September, Chinese TV reported that the PLA Navy’s Shandong carrier group recently conducted combat exercises in the South China Sea and the West Pacific. The report highlighted vessels frequently seen escorting the carrier, such as the Type-055 destroyer, the Type-052D destroyer, and the Type-901 combat support ship, but more notably, it featured the first-time inclusion of the Hainan Type-075 amphibious assault ship.[i]

The first excerpted article, published on ifeng, an internet distribution channel for majority state-owned news network Phoenix TV, highlights three distinctive combat capabilities the Type-075 amphibious assault ship adds to this carrier group. First, the Type 075 can be equipped with powerful carrier-based aviation assets for combat deployment across air, sea, and land. These aviation assets can also provide electronic warfare capabilities and other important support functions, expanding the carrier group’s power projection abilities, amphibious operations, and threat response.[ii] Second, the amphibious assault ship’s aviation assets can take on some responsibilities of Shandong’s air wing, allowing the air wing to focus on other crucial sea and air operations. In a contingency, the amphibious assault ship can replace Shandong as a command vessel, ensuring continuity of operations. Lastly, the amphibious assault ship can deploy multi-role helicopters such as the Z-8 and Z-9, which significantly enhance the carrier group’s anti-submarine warfare capabilities.  The article emphasizes that the greatest threat to the PLA Navy beyond the second island chain is not U.S. aircraft carriers but U.S. nuclear submarines.[iii] These helicopters improve the carrier group’s ability to search, track, and neutralize enemy submarine activities, thereby securing unrestricted maneuvering. The second excerpted article by Professor Jiang Fuwei of Dalian Maritime University, published on one of China’s largest internet platforms, NetEase, highlights the addition of the Type-075 to the Shandong carrier group as a significant milestone for the PLA Navy and positions China to better address two key hotspots: the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. In the event of conflict with the U.S. and Philippines in the South China Sea, the PLA would be able to execute more diversified military operations on Philippine territory, such as air assaults and amphibious lift. Similarly, in a potential conflict over Taiwan, the Shandong carrier group is now better equipped for amphibious beach landings, raids, and securing key areas of operation, particularly along Taiwan’s east coast, which could complicate and delay U.S. military intervention. The Type-075 Amphibious Assault Ship is a critical addition for the PLA Navy’s carrier group, improving its ability to conduct anti-submarine and amphibious operations while expanding its capacity to execute long range expeditionary missions far from China’s shores.[iv]

Sources:

Zheng Jiyong, “南海演习编入075，能在最坏情况替山东舰挂帅，中方已准备好摊牌 (The Type 075 Is Incorporated into the South China Sea Exercise, it can Replace the Shandong Aircraft Carrier in the Worst Case Scenario, China is Ready to Show Its Cards),” iFeng (an internet distribution channel for Phoenix TV, a majority state-owned news network), 12 September 2024. https://news.ifeng.com/c/8coKnWTiFwi

The Chinese military recently released a report showing the Shandong aircraft carrier group conducting live-fire exercises in the South China Sea. Notably, the Type 075 amphibious assault ship, Hainan, was integrated into this group for the first time. The Type 075 has a displacement of 40,000 tons and is the largest surface combat ship in the Chinese Navy, following its aircraft carriers. It features a full-length flight deck and hangar and can carry at least 30 helicopters for various combat roles. The addition of this ship to the carrier group is akin to adding another quasi-aircraft carrier, which is significant for China’s strategic positioning in the South China Sea.

Within the second island chain, the PLA’s current capabilities are sufficient to handle any adversary. However, beyond the second island chain, the greatest threat to the PLA Navy is not US aircraft carriers, but US nuclear submarines. These submarines are difficult to detect, and their advanced performance presents a significant challenge to the PLA in the South China Sea.

This is why the Type 075 amphibious assault ship has been integrated into the Shandong aircraft carrier group. The Type 075 is equipped with powerful aviation assets, including anti-submarine helicopters designed to locate US nuclear submarines. Additionally, its air assets can take over some of the Shandong air wing’s responsibilities, allowing the carrier to focus more on sea and air operations. Lastly, in a contingency scenario, the Type 075 can serve as a replacement for the Shandong as the command vessel.

The Philippines is persistently challenging China’s position in the South China Sea. To address the issue with the Philippines comprehensively, we must be prepared to confront the US, which supports them. The primary threat from the US Navy to China comes from nuclear submarines. Consequently, the integration of the Type 075 amphibious assault ship into the Shandong aircraft carrier group serves as a rehearsal for such a scenario.

The essence of the South China Sea dispute is not a conflict between China and the Philippines, but rather a power struggle between China and the US. China is committed to safeguarding its sovereignty in the South China Sea and ensuring that Chinese ships can navigate the area freely without obstruction. The US aims to use the Philippines to destabilize the South China Sea, thereby controlling vital shipping routes and leveraging advantageous positions to constrain China.

Source: Jiang Fuwei, “西方卫星突然发现，航母两攻都在向南海集结，解放军将有大动作 (Western Satellites Suddenly Detect Both Aircraft Carrier and Amphibious Assault Ship are Gathering in the South China Sea, is the PLA Preparing for a Major Operation?),” Netease, (one of China’s largest internet companies, subject to regulatory oversight and censorship by China’s cyberspace Administration), 12 September 2024. https://www.163.com/dy/article/JBT3EB7605532V6O.html

Last week, the PLA released footage showing the Shandong carrier and the Hainan Type 075 amphibious assault ship conducting joint combat training. For the Southern Theater Command, this joint operational capability marks a milestone for our naval forces in addressing potential situations in both the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

The greatest advantage of aircraft carriers is their high tactical flexibility, enabling a carrier strike group to launch attacks, exploit weaknesses in enemy defenses—particularly against adversaries with limited maritime situational awareness—and reposition as needed. However, aircraft carriers are not designed to sustain continuous, large-scale blockades over a single area. As a result, carrier-based operations often follow a hit-and-run strategy, striking and then withdrawing to regroup for subsequent attacks.

When facing a significantly weaker adversary like the Philippines, the Shandong carrier can capitalize on its superiority in intelligence and situational awareness to carry out precise ‘surgical strikes,’ maximizing the effectiveness of its air wing. However, against a more capable opponent like the Taiwanese military, the carrier’s air wing may cause substantial damage, but the extended intervals between attacks would allow the Taiwanese military time to regroup. As a result, amphibious operations and providing cover for landing forces exert a greater strategic impact than relying solely on airpower.

For instance, if a conflict between China and the US were to break out in the South China Sea, the PLA would need to find ways to neutralize US Typhoon missile systems in northern Philippines. The problem is that the area is densely covered in tropical rainforests, making it difficult for satellites and aerial reconnaissance to be effective, rendering carrier-based air strikes inefficient. Therefore, the most effective method would be to deploy and attack from the ground. Similarly, in a Taiwan Strait conflict, the Shandong carrier group, equipped with amphibious landing ships, could act as a surprise force, conducting small-scale landing operations to disrupt Taiwan’s defensive posture.

Once the PLA begins organizing landings in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan’s forces will inevitably concentrate on the island’s western coast, leaving the eastern coast largely undefended. At this point, the Shandong carrier group could conduct landings on Taiwan’s eastern coast, targeting and destroying facilities, thus undermining any hopes of delaying the conflict until US intervention.

With the addition of the Hainan Type 075 Amphibious Assault Ship, it will play a crucial role not only in landing operations but also in anti-submarine warfare. The Hainan can establish an anti-submarine network around the fleet, making it nearly impossible for even US submarines, despite their world-class technology, to evade detection. This capability will significantly reduce the likelihood of US submarines launching surprise attacks on the PLA fleet.

Given time, the Shandong carrier group will not only serve as a vanguard for China’s blue-water operations but will also function as an aerial guardian for frontline landing forces during amphibious operations.

Notes:

[i] To watch the CCTV-7 news report on the Shandong carrier group exercise, see CCTV-7 China Defense and Military channel, CCTV, 9 September 2024. https://tv.cctv.com/2024/09/09/VIDEPTsqIV4ywN1OtwIHnDRe240909.shtml

[ii] Matthew P. Funaiole and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., “China’s New Amphibious Assault Ship Sails into the South China Sea,” CSIS (Center for Strategic & International Studies), 24 November 2020. https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-amphibious-assault-ship-sails-south-china-sea

[iii] Alexander Palmer, Henry H. Carroll, and Nicholas Velazquez, “Unpacking China’s Naval Buildup,” CSIS, 5 June 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/unpacking-chinas-naval-buildup

[iv] Conor M. Kennedy and Daniel Caldwell, “China Maritime Report No. 23: The Type 075 LHD: Development, Missions, and Capabilities,” US Naval War College, China Maritime Studies Institute, 07 October 2022.https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-maritime-reports/23/

China’s DJI Mavic Air 2 drone in flight.

“In many exercises during the second half of this year, there will be more intelligent AI armaments unveiled.”

China introduced and employed some of its unmanned systems during recent combat exercises, highlighting how it plans to dominate the future battlefield. In the exercise, “Peace Unity-2024,” Chinese participants worked closely with Tanzanian military personnel on new drone combat techniques.[i] According to the article excerpt, published by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology’s official newspaper Science and Technology Daily, the exercise involved combatting a group of (imaginary) armed terrorists infiltrating town blocks to carry out attacks and take hostages. Reconnaissance, armored personnel, special warfare, artillery, and other combat units from both China and Tanzania worked together, while relying on infantry fighting vehicles, assault vehicles, and unmanned reconnaissance aircraft to locate and eliminate the “terrorists.” The article explains that once the drones took off, the Chinese reconnaissance team was able to transmit intelligence to the joint command post for Tanzanian and Chinese commanders to analyze and determine the battlefield situation. A Tanzanian reconnaissance team guided Chinese special forces in from the sea undetected. Once on station, blockading the perimeter, they used a “multi-channel concentric attack” approach to attack the terrorists at multiple points, expelling and eliminating them.

In a previous exercise, “Golden Dragon-2024,” which took place with Cambodia in May, the PLA featured a combat robot dog. Equipped with an automatic rifle, these battery-operated robot dogs could one day replace soldiers. A video published by the Chinese majority state-owned television network Phoenix News Media, shows the combat robot dog entering a building with soldiers. As described in the video transcript, the robot dog can reportedly navigate obstacles and fire at targets. Another video[ii] claims that the combat robot dog can even plan routes, approach targets, and avoid obstacles, making it ideal for urban combat operations. The first video also showcased an unmanned combat vehicle. The combat vehicle is said to have the same type of rifle and machine gun weapon stations as the robot dog.[iii] It also reportedly can be equipped with grenade launchers, bomb disposal arms and other mission-related features. A heavy-lift drone can airdrop it to the enemy’s rear, where it can work in coordination with the combat robot dog. While the robot dog is responsible for clearing buildings and alleys, able to go up and down stairs, the combat vehicle would be responsible for outdoor operations.[iv] While these systems can now be used for remote surveillance and attack, in the future, China envisions using unmanned systems to develop and deploy logistics, transporting supplies, and other items. In short, as the CCTV video explains, we can expect to see unmanned weapons systems appear more and more in future Chinese combat exercise scenarios.

Sources:

Zhang Qiang et al., “‘平团结-2024’联合演习——东非演兵场打出联合反恐’组合拳’ (Peace Unity 2024 Joint Exercise: Joint Anti-Terrorism ‘Combination Punch’ Launched on the East African Military Training Ground),” Keji Ribao (Official newspaper of the PRC’s Ministry of Science and Technology), 20 August 2024. https://www.stdaily.com/web/gdxw/2024-08/20/content_216923.html

During the operation and training phase of reconnaissance equipment, the Chinese participants demonstrated different drone combat and reconnaissance operations… and worked closely with Tanzanian officers and soldiers on new drone combat operations…

During the “Peace and Unity-2024” joint exercise… Chinese participants displayed a lot of the new equipment.

As the drones took off, the Chinese reconnaissance team took the lead and sent intelligence back to the command post. In the joint command center, Chinese and Tanzanian commanders jointly analyzed and assessed the battlefield situation and ordered the joint combat group to advance quickly from the left and right sides, using “ground assault, elite troops, information blocking” and other means to attack the imaginary enemy. At the same time, Chinese special forces took the approach of infiltrating from the sea to engage the enemy covertly. Guided by the Tanzanian reconnaissance team, they effectively located and identified suspicious targets. After completing the joint reconnaissance and perimeter blockade, participating troops from both sides collaborated to adopt a “multi-channel concentric attack” approach, attacking the [imaginary] “terrorists” stationed at multiple points and the eliminating them.

“This joint exercise has a large amount of a wide variety of equipment, including some new domains of equipment such as unmanned and special warfare equipment, which is a distinct feature.”

“解放军8月持续实弹演习 凸显人工智能军事化 (The PLA’s continued live-fire exercises in August highlight the militarization of artificial intelligence),” Phoenix News Media (a majority state-owned television network that serves mainland China, Honk Kong, Macau, and other Chinese-language viewers), 17 August 2024. https://mil.ifeng.com/c/8c41qSICUbG 

The [“Peace and Unit-2024”] joint exercise between China and Tanzania focused on exploring Chinese and foreign joint performances…(they called it) A new model of joint training…

In many exercises during the second half of this year, there will more intelligent AI armaments unveiled. According to Hong Kong Sing Tao Daily, a variety of unmanned equipment developed by China has been put into actual combat exercise. For example, equipped with an automatic rifle, the assault robot dog is able to accurately snipe targets…

In the future, the PLA will use unmanned equipment in field search and rescue operations. According to Hong Kong South China Morning Post the PLA is exploring integrating unmanned equipment into combat operations. A greatly improved special operations team will have battlefield awareness and fire-strike capabilities.

In May of this year, China’s PLA unveiled the intelligent unmanned combat robot dog during the joint Cambodian “Golden Dragon-2024” Exercise, which attracted much attention… some analysts pointed out that a robot dog equipped with automatic rifle in military drills demonstrates that China is changing its traditional battlefield rules… The four-legged robot dog… conducted reconnaissance first and fired upon discovering the enemy. He is a new member of our offensive and defensive operations. In the future, (unmanned systems might) develop and deploy logistics to treat the wounded, transport supplies and other items, even be directly linked to satellites. Integrated AI armaments for remote surveillance and attack might appear in future PLA combat exercises.

Notes:

[i] Peace Unity-2024,” was a joint exercise with Mozambique and Tanzania that took place late-July through mid-August 2024.

[ii] Mikhaila Friela, “China’s Latest Weapon of War is a Gun-Toting Robot Dog,” Business Insider, 28 May 2024. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-weapon-war-machine-gun-toting-robot-dog-military-drills-2024-5

[iii] “前方高能！国产新型战斗无人车曝光 演示视频发布！搭载战斗机器狗同型步枪 可由无人机空投至“敌”后方！ (High Energy Ahead! New Domestic Unmanned Vehicle Exposed, Released Video Demonstration! Equipped With the Same Type of Rifle as the Combat Robot Dog, It Can Be Airdropped by a Drone to the Enemy Rear, Military Fans World),” CCTV Youtube channel (Chinese Government News Network), 12 July 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poHfVmg0QAg

[iv] See also CCTV Youtube video, 12 July 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poHfVmg0QAg

Image Information:

Image: China’s DJI Mavic Air 2 drone in flight.
Source: Data derived from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:DJI_-_Drohne_Mavic_Air_2.JPG
Attribution: C. Stadler/Bwag, CC-BY-SA-4.0

“If we do not strengthen our countermeasures against the Marcos government, the Philippines, relying on support of countries outside the region, will only become more arrogant in stirring up trouble.”

On 7 August, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command conducted a joint combat patrol in the South China Sea near Huangyan Island. The patrol coincided with a four-nation military exercise conducted by the United States, Canada, Australia, and the Philippines in the same region and aimed to “test the theater troops’ reconnaissance and early warning, rapid mobility, and joint strike capabilities.”[i]

The first excerpted article, published by the Global Times, a Chinese nationalistic tabloid, features Colonel Zhang Junshe, from the Naval Military Academic Research Institute, and Dr. Ding Duo, Deputy Director from China’s Institute of South China Sea Studies.[ii] In the article, Colonel Zhang emphasizes two points. Firstly, the joint combat patrol confidently showcases procedures to include quick threat detection, rapid deployment, control of both sea and air through joint strikes, seize the initiative, and launch further strike operations. Secondly, Colonel Zhang criticizes the coinciding four-nation military exercise as merely symbolic due to the limited number of participating ships.[iii] Colonel Zhang emphasizes that the Philippines involves non-regional countries in the South China Sea to embolden themselves to undertake more “provocative” actions. Dr. Ding Duo continues the rhetoric, accusing the United States of being the biggest external factor disrupting regional stability. He asserts that future multinational exercises will only serve to strengthen China’s determination and commitment to its interest in the region. The second excerpt, published by Direct News, a news agency controlled by the propaganda department of the Chinese Communist Party, features Shi Hong, a frequent special commentator. Shi Hong also places the blame for escalating tensions on the Philippines and the United States.[iv] He strongly advocates the PLA to intensify “countermeasures” against the Philippines as its military continues to participate in joint exercises. The Philippines has emerged as a primary contender against China in the South China Sea, with both sides engaging in multiple hostile confrontations.[v] While China has traditionally used its coast guard to assert its claims in the region, the recent PLA joint combat patrol signals a potentially more aggressive approach aimed at intimidating and demonstrating strength. The timing of this joint combat patrol is clearly intended to send a message of discontent. The trend of patrols may become more frequent, signaling China’s dissatisfaction with the Philippines’ growing collaboration with its allies and partners.[vi]

Sources:

“南部战区位黄岩岛附近海空域组织联合战巡，军事专家：消息中的“三种能力”内涵丰富 (The Southern Theater Command organized a joint combat patrol in the sea and air near Huangyan Island, military experts say the “three capabilities” in the report are rich in meaning),” Global Times (a Chinese tabloid known for reporting international issues from a nationalistic perspective), 7 August 2024. https://hqtime.huanqiu.com/article/4IvXI4qwGPn

The People’s Liberation Army Southern Theater Command announced on the 7th that they conducted a joint combat patrol near Huangyan Island in the South China Sea. This patrol aimed to test the theater troops’ reconnaissance and early warning, rapid mobility, and joint strike capabilities. Experts interviewed by the Global Times noted that these three capabilities demonstrate the PLA’s ability to implement targeted countermeasures against provocative actions.

Colonel Zhang Junshe, a researcher at the Naval Military Academic Research Institute, stated that the PLA’s three key capabilities—reconnaissance and early warning, rapid mobility, and joint strikes—are part of its combat procedures designed to defend national sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity. He explained that these procedures enable the PLA to quickly detect threats, maneuver rapidly, and conduct joint strikes against acts of aggression. This approach allows the PLA to maintain control of sea and air, seize the initiative, and launch further strike operations.

Coincidentally, the Philippines, the United States, Canada, and Australia began a two-day multilateral maritime exercise on the 7th, which was reported as the first joint exercise among these four countries. This marks the third exercise that the Philippines has conducted with non-regional countries within ten days; On July 31st, the Philippine and US navies held a joint maritime exercise in the South China Sea, and on August 2nd, the Philippines and Japan conducted a joint military exercise in the same region.

Dr. Ding Duo, Deputy Director of the Institute of Marine Law and Policy at the China Institute of South China Sea Studies, stated that the Philippines’ continual attempts to involve non-regional countries in joint exercises have only emboldened their confidence for provocative actions in the South China Sea. Dr. Ding Duo firmly believes that not only is the Philippines bringing danger upon itself, but it is also destabilizing ASEAN’s regional stability.

Dr. Ding Duo asserts that the United States is the biggest external factor disrupting regional stability. He criticizes the U.S. for promoting multilateral mechanisms and exhibiting a Cold War mentality against China. Dr. Ding Duo states, ‘The United States does not have many means to intervene in South China Sea affairs. It can only demonstrate deterrence through joint patrols and joint military exercises. However, history and reality have shown that this approach will not affect China; instead, it will only strengthen China’s determination to safeguard its sovereignty, security, and development interests in the South China Sea.”

Furthermore, public reports indicate that the exercises conducted by the Philippines with non-regional countries in the South China Sea are mostly symbolic. In the most recent exercises, very few ships and aircraft were involved. From the Philippines’ perspective, its ships and systems are far behind those of friendly and allied countries, making it unable to effectively carry out its own joint operations. The Philippines hopes that through these multinational exercises, the United States and its allies will support it and increase its confidence in continuing provocative actions. Colonel Zhang Junshe criticizes this approach, stating, ‘ …. the United States and Japan are capable of lending a helping hand to the Philippines, but neither of them is willing enough. They just want the Philippines to charge into battle, and they will not participate in it themselves.’

“解放军联合战巡南海 这一次在黄岩岛附近 (The PLA South China Sea joint patrol is near the Huangyan Island),” Direct News (news agency controlled by the propaganda department of the Chinese Communist Party), 7 August 2024. https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1806726604086346646&wfr=spider&for=pc

On August 7th, the Southern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army organized a joint combat patrol in the sea and airspace near Huangyan Island in the South China Sea to test the theater troops’ reconnaissance and early warning, rapid mobility, and joint strike capabilities. The Southern Theater Command stated that “all military activities that disrupt the South China Sea, create hotspots, and undermine regional peace and stability are under control.”

Shi Hong, a special commentator for Zhi News (Direct News), states that this joint combat patrol serves as a deterrent signal. He notes that the Philippines is frequently disrupting regional stability in the South China Sea and has actively involved non-regional countries to further destabilize the region. The four-nation exercise involving the Philippines, the United States, Canada, and Australia is the Philippines’ third naval exercise with non-regional countries in ten days.

“If we do not intensify our countermeasures against the Marcos government of the Philippines, the Philippines, relying on support from non-regional countries, will become more arrogant in destabilizing the region,” Shi Hong said. “Now the PLA Southern Theater Command is organizing its own joint patrols near Huangyan Island in the South China Sea, which serves as a strong warning to the Philippines and its allies. If they interfere in the South China Sea and challenge China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, the PLA is fully capable of defeating all provocations.”

Notes:

[i] To read the official statement on the joint combat patrol released by China’s Southern Theater Command, see their official Weibo post, Weibo, 7 August 2024. https://m.weibo.cn/u/7468777622?jumpfrom=weibocom

[ii] To watch the Global Times report on the joint combat patrol, see Global Times’ official Baidu post, Baidu, 8 August 2024. https://haokan.baidu.com/v?vid=10881733893047848551

[iii] The four-nation exercise involving the US, Australia, Canada, and the Philippines included only four ships, with Australia contributing a single Boeing Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft, Asian News Network (news coalition organization headquartered in Singapore), 8 August 2024. https://asianews.network/philippines-starts-4-nation-naval-drills-with-us-australia-canada/

[iv] To watch a clip of special commentator Shi Hong briefly outlining his points, see Direct News’ video post, Direct News, 08 August 2024. https://haokan.baidu.com/v?vid=2234121559770488262&collection_id=

[v] Nectar Gan and Kathleen Magramo “‘Only pirates do this’: Philippines accuses China of using bladed weapons in major South China Sea escalation,” CNN, 20 June 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/20/asia/philippines-footage-south-china-sea-clash-china-intl-hnk/index.html

[vi] Agence France-Presse, “China launches air, sea patrols near flashpoint reef as US holds joint drills,” VOA, 7 August 2024. https://www.voanews.com/a/china-launches-air-sea-patrols-near-flashpoint-scarborough-shoal/7733012.html

Image Information:

Image: This photo, taken on 12 May 2024, shows Chinese Coast Guard vessels training in the waters near Huangyan Island.
Source: httpswww.chinadaily.com.cna20240516WS66455301a31082fc043c7542_2.html
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.