FMSO

Open source research on foreign perspectives of defense and security issues, emphasizing those topics that are understudied or unconsidered.

Turkish Lessons Learned From the War in Ukraine

Posted on October 1, 2022 by Karen Kaya

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with Minister of National Defense Minister of Turkey Hulusi Akar, Kyiv, Ukraine.

An armed force with a high degree of maneuver capability and a high communication capability can conduct very effective maneuvers regardless of how much bigger its enemy force may be.

Various Turkish news programs consider Turkey’s observations from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The accompanying excerpts from one such televised debate summarize Turkey’s military, technical, and geopolitical takeaways from the war. The excerpts are from a program which aired on Nokta TV24, a Turkish independent news and analysis channel, featuring a discussion between former Turkish Ambassador Fatih Ceylan, the Turkish Permanent Representative to NATO from 2013 to 2018, and one of Turkey’s top defense and security experts, Arda Mevlütoğlu. The show was posted on YouTube.

To begin, Mevlütoğlu notes the most important lesson from a military and technological standpoint has been that an armed force (Ukraine) can conduct very effective maneuvers against a much larger enemy force (Russia). He points to the importance of Ukraine’s capable strike systems, maneuver forces, and particularly communication systems. Citing reports of Russia having to resort to commercial GPS systems because of its Glonass GPS system being jammed, he concludes that attention to electronic and cyberwarfare are also extremely important. Mevlütoğlu also points to the importance of the psychological dimensions of the war, noting that Ukraine’s successful and effective psychological campaign has enabled it to maintain the support of the European public, which has been critical for ensuring those countries’ continued support. As such, he claims that diplomatic, cultural, and psychological factors are just as important as military defense technologies, which can even be a tool of foreign policy. He points to the success of Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones in Ukraine, and how the successes of these drones have increased Turkey’s profile there [1]. Geopolitically, Mevlütoğlu assesses that Russia will end up deeply weakened in terms of potential and capability. He argues that such a Russia will have an asymmetric relationship with China, where China will have the upper hand in their trade relationship, especially in energy. In this sense, he sees China coming out as one of the beneficiaries of this war. On the other hand, he claims that the United States has consolidated its political-military influence in Eastern Europe, which he says will likely limit China’s influence in Europe and access to the Atlantic.

Sources:

“İnsansız Kara – Hava ve Deniz Aracı Üretiminde Neredeyiz? | S-400’lerin İkinci Partisi Gelir Mi? Fatih Ceylan Arda Mevlütoğlu ile (Where are we in the Production of Unmanned Land – Air and Sea Vehicles? | Would a Second Batch of S-400’s Come? Fatih Ceylan speaks with Arda Mevlütoğlu),” Nokta TV24 via YouTube (a Turkish independent news and analysis channel), 1 September 2022. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZT3eIYmT84Q&list=WL&index=63

Q: As you know, there’s been a huge inflection point in the global security environment in February 2022 with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine… We’ve left behind six months of this war. In these six months, what lessons should we learn as far as military operations and deterrence based on how the war is going? What strategies, visions, concepts, and doctrines do we need to develop for the future?

A: Six months of the Russia-Ukraine war has given us the opportunity to make some very important political, military, and strategic and observations. From the Turkish point of view, both from a military and technological standpoint, some of the most important ones are [as follows]: An armed force with a high degree of maneuver capability and a high communication capability can conduct very effective maneuvers regardless of how much bigger its enemy force may be. A well-educated, well-equipped force with units with good communication systems and highly [capable] strike systems can be very effective. Communication technology is the most important here… There is open-source information that says that the Starlink communication system provided by Elon Musk has been instrumental for Ukraine in the battlefield… We have reports that there have been important GPS jamming attempts in the region, especially against Russia’s Glonass system. And in fact, there are reports that Russia has had to resort to commercial GPS systems as a result. So we can conclude that there is huge competition in electronic and cyber war. We can’t see this directly, we can only observe the outcomes of this. The war has shown us that electronic and cyberwars, as well as strike and maneuver forces are extremely important.

There is also the psychological dimension. Morale and psychological support is very important. Ukraine has been conducting a very successful, very effective psychological war. It has not only consolidated its public support in the West, but increased it. It has obtained moral superiority and retained this. So, however right you may be in your war, if you can’t defend your thesis in the international arena or find international support, it is that difficult to continue your fight… Of course in this case there can be no explanation for attacking a sovereign country.

So [the war has shown us that] it’s not just military fighting [that matters]; the fight in the diplomatic, cultural, psychological dimensions are also very important. In fact, military defense is not just a military or industrial thing, its also an element of foreign policy. We don’t need to repeat the success that Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2s have had for Ukraine, they are even conducting crowdfunding activities to buy more.

Q: There’s a new reality now… When we look at the military strategies of the U.S., China and Russia and the related doctrines they are developing, we see a serious global strategic competition that is here to stay for many years. How will the balance of powers play out?

A: This is an open-ended process. In this competition between the U.S., China and Russia, my view is that, regardless of how this war ends, Russia will end up deeply weaked. It will continue to be a superpower and a big power, but it will be seriously damaged and tarnished in terms of potential and capability. Such a Russia will have an asymmetric relationship with China such that China will have an advantage, particularly in terms of energy imports and advanced technologies and systems. … So I think China may come out benefiting from this [war]. I don’t know if it will result in a conflict with Taiwan- I think it’s very difficult and I hope not. Taiwan’s TSMC company is very important for global microchip production, so a war in that region could lead to a serious global crisis… But it will be tense. In fact we see that the U.S. has focused its interest in that area. China’s relations with the U.S. and the West may be both competitive and cooperative at the same time… Finally, the U.S. has consolidated its military-political influence in Eastern Europe. So China’s influence in Europe and access to the Atlantic may become more limited.

Notes:

[1] See also Karen Kaya, “Turkish-Made Bayraktar TB2 Drones Play Important Role in Ukraine,” OE Watch, Issue 6, 2022.

Image Information:

Image: President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with Minister of National Defense Minister of Turkey Hulusi Akar, Kyiv, Ukraine.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Volodymyr_Zelensky_and_Hulusi_Akar.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Kazakhstan Suspends Defense Exports, Denying Russia Purchases

Posted on October 1, 2022 by Matthew Stein

President of Russia Vladimir Putin and President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, following Russia-Kazakhstan talks in Sochi, Russia.

The export of weapons, military equipment and military products will be suspended until the end of August 2023.

When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, international sanctions forced the Russian defense industry to consider purchasing military equipment from defense companies in Kazakhstan as a workaround to meet requirements for the Russian Armed Forces. In 2014, no significant Russian acquisitions from Kazakh companies ultimately took place. However, following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a new round of international sanctions against Moscow have reportedly caused Russia to look again at Kazakhstan’s defense industry. However, as the accompanying excerpted article from the independent news website Fergana Agency reports, the Kazakh government’s announcement on 27 August that it is suspending all defense exports for one year. The ban includes “the export of weapons, military equipment and military products,” and it appears to have the greatest impact on Russia. The move is viewed as a direct effort by Kazakhstan to avoid violating sanctions levied against Russia, which it has stated multiple times that it seeks not to violate. The article notes that Russia had been planning to make a $46 million defense purchase from a Kazakh company, including acquiring shells for howitzers, ammunition for mortars, rockets, and even armored personnel carriers. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development denied this. The article notes that the pro-Russian Rybar Telegram channel tried to refute the Kazakh government by publishing documents for the purchase, but they could not be verified. Regardless of whether the Kazakh government agreed to the purchase, the one-year suspension of defense exports ultimately deprives Russia of a supplier of weapons and equipment that closely matches its own armed forces.

Sources:

“Казахстан на год приостановит экспорт вооружений (Kazakhstan is suspending defense exports for one year),” Fergana Agency (independent news website focusing on Central Asia), 29 August 2022.

https://fergana.agency/news/127503/

Kazakhstan will suspend the export of military products for a year. The Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development of the country came up with such an initiative, and it was supported by the Commission on Defense Industry, the website of the Prime Minister reports…the export of weapons, military equipment and military products will be suspended until the end of August 2023.

In the middle of this month, Russian Telegram channels reported on an allegedly planned deal for the sale of Soviet and Russian-made ammunition by the Kazakh company Technoexport…They said that the contract in the amount of $46 million was concluded on July 16, 2022. The reports also provided a list of weapons – shells for howitzers, ammunition for mortars, rockets, armored personnel carriers and so on. The Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development of Kazakhstan denied this information a few days later.

In response, the Rybar Telegram channel published documents (without specifying their origin) that cast doubt on the refutation of the Kazakh authorities.

On August 19, a meeting was held in Sochi between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh leader Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. As the Kremlin reported, the agenda of the talks included the development of Russian-Kazakh relations, strategic partnership and cooperation.

Image Information:

Image: President of Russia Vladimir Putin and President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, following Russia-Kazakhstan talks in Sochi, Russia
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Putin-Tokayev_(2022-08-19).jpg
Attribution: CCA 4.0

Colombia’s New Government Quickly Reestablishes Relations With Maduro’s Venezuela

Posted on October 1, 2022 by Ryan Berg

The Colombia-Venezuela border, which has witnessed millions of migrants in recent years.

The first and most important step in this new phase of bilateral relations is to restore diplomacy between the two countries.

Mere weeks after taking office in August 2022, Colombia’s new president, Gustavo Petro, has reestablished relations with Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Venezuela. This is noteworthy as relations between the two countries ruptured in 2019, when Columbia’s then-president Iván Duque recognized Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s interim president, thus prompting Maduro to end formal diplomatic ties. Under president Duque, Colombia was a staunch opponent of Maduro, seeking to isolate him on the international stage, while itself seeking to play a lead role in Latin America.

Presidents Petro and Maduro celebrated the resumption of relations with the exchange of ambassadors, CNN en Español reports. The article notes that the exchange of ambassadors, the reopening of their shared border, the resumption of trade, and eventually, a meeting between Petro and Maduro, signals a changing strategic environment in Latin America toward Venezuela’s dictatorship. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also changed the region’s appetite for isolating Venezuela and demanding domestic changes. In an interview with Colombia’s leading weekly magazine Semana, Colombia’s new ambassador to Venezuela, Armando Benedetti, announced Colombia’s intention to buy Venezuelan oil and gas, previously sanctioned to press Maduro over links to organized crime and gross human rights abuses. Ambassador Benedetti also spoke of a proposal to establish special economic zones along the Colombia-Venezuela border, which immediately generated concern about the potential for drug trafficking organizations and Colombian guerrillas using these zones to launder money. Collectively these moves give the Maduro regime more space to maneuver.

Sources:

Source: “Colombia y Venezuela restablecen relaciones bilaterales con la llegada de embajadores a Bogotá y Caracas (Colombia and Venezuela reestablish bilateral relations with the arrival of ambassadors to Bogotá and Caracas),” CNN en Español (the Spanish-language version of the popular American outlet), 29 August 2022.

https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2022/08/29/armando-benedetti-embajador-de-colombia-en-venezuela-llega-a-caracas-orix/

Benedetti told journalists in Caracas that the first and most important step in this new phase of bilateral relations is to restore diplomacy between the two countries. That includes both the diplomatic issue and trade relations, one of the priorities of the two governments. “We are going to reestablish relations with Venezuela, we are going to reestablish trade from which more than 8 million Colombians live, we are going to look for an economic zone, tax exemptions and legislation that allows the Colombian government to invest in works that have an impact on the development of the region,” said Benedetti…Upon his arrival in Caracas, Benedetti told reporters that “there are several ideas” to restore trade relations…among them, creating a special economic zone on both sides. “And in my country legislation would have to be passed so that it can invest in hospitals, in bridges, in works, infrastructure, that really have an impact on development.”

Source: “‘Es necesario que Colombia le compre gas a Venezuela:’ Armando Benedetti (‘It is necessary for Colombia to buy gas from Venezuela:’ Armando Benedetti),” Semana (Colombia’s leading weekly magazine), 9 September 2022. https://www.semana.com/politica/articulo/es-necesario-que-colombia-le-compre-gas-a-venezuela-armando-benedetti/202247/

The purchase of gas from Colombia to Venezuela “is necessary because our country will run out of gas in the next seven years. They already have the gas pipeline that comes out of the Gulf of Maracaibo itself. They already have the exploitation, a gas pipeline, it would only be necessary to look for about 30, 40 kilometers so that they can begin to commercialize from Colombia.”

Image Information:

Image: The Colombia-Venezuela border, which has witnessed millions of migrants in recent years.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/cidh/49534798383
Attribution: CC BY 2.0

Russian Navy Weaponizes Shipping Containers

Posted on October 1, 2022 by Dr Charles Bartles

Shipping Containers.

For the defense of Russian combat and auxiliary ships, an electronic warfare (EW) system is being developed. The EW system will be placed in ordinary 40-foot shipping containers.

The accompanying excerpted article from pro-Kremlin daily newspaper Izvestiya describes Russian efforts to place electronic warfare systems in standard 40-foot shipping containers. The Russian Navy is also experimenting with other shipping container-based weapon systems involving air defense, anti-ship, and surface and underwater unmanned reconnaissance capabilities. These shipping container-based weapon systems are not only intended to augment the capabilities of the Russian Navy’s ships, but also auxiliary ships (tugboats, transports, fuelers, etc.) that support the Russian Navy, and commercial ships if necessary. Shipping container-based weapon systems are likely to become more important to the Russian Navy as it transitions from larger ships, such as cruisers and destroyers, which have many capabilities to smaller ships, such as frigates and corvettes, with fewer capabilities. These shipping container-based weapon systems will permit these small vessels to expediently and cheaply add capabilities as required.

Source:

Roman Kretsul, “Шумящий патруль: российские корабли защитят

системы радиоэлектронной борьбы (The ‘noisy’ patrol: Russian ships will be protected by electronic warfare systems),” Izvestiya (pro-Kremlin daily newspaper), 8 September 2022. https://iz.ru/1392104/roman-kretcul/shumiashchii-patrul-rossiiskie-korabli-zashchitiat-sistemy-radioelektronnoi-borby

For the defense of Russian combat and auxiliary ships, an electronic warfare (EW) system is being developed. The EW system will be placed in ordinary 40-foot shipping containers. Thanks to this, the system can be easily installed on the decks of ships and vessels. Such protective “boxes” should reliably protect ships and vessels from enemy missiles and drones by way of electromagnetic interference. According to experts, as a result, this decision will significantly strengthen the protection of the country’s coastal regions.

The Project 22160 ‘Vasily Bykov’ patrol ships will be the first to receive this electronic warfare systems. In the future, auxiliary vessels of the Russian fleet – tugboats, transports and others – could also acquire it…Initially, a weaker electronic warfare system was installed on Project 22160 ships, military historian Dmitry Boltenkov told Izvestia.“Apparently, they created a more powerful solution, of operational or strategic designation. Containers allow you to put the system on different ships,” the expert explained. “If necessary, it will be possible to build up the electronic warfare system of ship groups. They will be able to enter a given area and, in fact, completely “turn it off”. First, they will suppress drone control channels and communication systems. It will no longer be necessary to drive an electronic warfare vehicle onto a landing ship, instead they will simply put a container.

The Navy is also actively testing new container modules — with weapons and with various auxiliary equipment —including the Redut and Pantsir-M air defense systems, container modules with anti-submarine equipment, and container modules with cruise missiles. In particular, the Kalibr-NK cruise missiles. But the main possibility is that they can be adapted for the employment of underwater and surface unmanned vehicles of all types. This provides a reconnaissance capability over hundreds of kilometers…

Image Information:

Image: Shipping Containers
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Container_%E3%80%90_2205_%E3%80%91_SAKC_000411(0)—No,1_%E3%80%90_Container_pictures_taken_in_Japan_%E3%80%91.jpg
Attribution: Gazouya-japan

Mali Claims France Funded Terrorists; France Denies

Posted on October 1, 2022 by Jason Warner

French soldiers talk to locals in southern Mali in 2016.

These flagrant violations of Mali’s airspace have served France to collect intelligence for the benefit of terrorist groups active in the Sahel, and to drop arms and ammunition to them.

Tensions between France and Mali continue to mount. As the articles below—one from Mali, one from France—delineate, the junta leaders of Mali recently sent a letter to the UN Security Council accusing France of illegally violating its airspace to aid terrorist groups in the country, which France’s years-long Barkhane counterterrorism mission has been in the country to fight.

The private Malian paper Le Journal du Mali reports that the ruling military junta in Mali, which came to power in May 2021, had sent the UN Security Council a letter claiming that it had proof of French violation of its airspace. It claimed that this occurred more than 50 times to collect intelligence and deliver arms to terrorists in the country. Malian diplomats went on to request a special meeting of the UN Security Council but ultimately provided no proof. For its part, as detailed in the second article from the private, left-leaning French editorial site L’Opinion, the French embassy in Bamako denied the claim. As the writer of the article pondered: “Is this [letter to the UN] a way for Bamako to designate an external enemy to veil its internal shortcomings?” Such accusations—unfounded as they appear to be—play out against the backdrop of France’s last nine years in the Sahel leading its Barkhane counterterrorism mission against groups associated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. While France officially ended its Barkhane mission in August 2022, the ruling Malian junta and large swathes of the Malian population have taken to blaming the French mission not only for failing to stem the tide of jihadist violence, but also for offering support to such groups. Until now, such accusations have percolated in bilateral circles, angering French diplomats and even President Macron. Their elevation to the UN Security Council places them at unprecedented new levels.

Sources :

Source: “Sécurité : le Mali accuse la France d’aide aux terroristes (Security: Mali accuses France of aiding terrorists),” Le Journal du Mali (private Malian newspaper) 17 August 2022. https://www.journaldumali.com/2022/08/17/securite-mali-accuse-france-daide-aux-terroristes/.

In a letter dated August 15 and addressed to the UN Security Council, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Mali accuses France of repetitive and frequent violations of Malian airspace by French forces. In the letter signed by Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdoulaye Diop, he asserted that the Malian government has several pieces of evidence that these flagrant violations of Malian airspace have been used by France to collect intelligence for the benefit of terrorist groups operating in the Sahel and to drop arms and ammunition to them. The government underscored that it is because of suspicion of destabilization maneuvers by France that Mali firmly opposed France’s request for air support for MINUSMA, so that “France does not use the UN mission as a pretext to carry out subversive operations aimed at further weakening Mali and the Sahel region.” In addition, Mali requests that France immediately cease its acts of aggression against Mali, in the event of persistence, Mali says it reserves the right to use self-defense.

Source: “Le Mali accuse la France d’armer les combattants islamistes (Mali accuses France of arming Islamist militants),” L’Opinion (private French news site), 18 August 2022. https://www.lopinion.fr/international/le-mali-accuse-la-france-darmer-les-combattants-islamistes.

Is this a way for Bamako to designate an external enemy to veil its shortcomings internally? Mali said in a letter to the president of the United Nations Security Council dated Monday that France violated its airspace and delivered weapons to Islamist fighters in order to destabilize the country. Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop estimated that more than 50 violations of Malian airspace had been observed this year, saying most of them were due to the use by French forces of drones, military helicopters, or fighter planes.

The Malian government claims to be able to demonstrate where and when France would have delivered weapons to Islamist groups, it is added in the letter, without any proof being provided. Bamako requests the holding of an emergency meeting of the Security Council on the issue.“France has obviously never supported, directly or indirectly, these terrorist groups, which remain its designated enemies throughout the planet”, indicated the French embassy in Mali on Twitter, stressing that 53 French soldiers were dead in Mali in the last 9 years. These accusations come as France on Monday completed the withdrawal of French soldiers from Barkhane, a military operation aimed at fighting Islamist movements in the Sahel.

Image Information:

Image: French soldiers talk to locals in southern Mali in 2016.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Op%C3%A9ration_Barkhane.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0

Russia Conducts Arctic Naval Maneuver and Propaganda Tour Along Northern Sea Route

Posted on October 1, 2022 by Dr Lester Grau

Locals were welcomed onboard to see the exhibitions of weaponry and told stories about how soldiers with the Northern Fleet are heroically fighting for the fatherland in Ukraine.

In August, Russia’s navy kicked off an exercise and a propaganda tour in the Arctic. As the first accompanying excerpted article from the independent Norwegian news site The Barents Observer describes, the Russian Northern Fleet concentrated in the Barents-Arctic region where there are western approaches to the Arctic Sea Route. The exercise included warships and submarines, but also support from air force and coastal air defense units with the aim of deterring an enemy attack from the Barents Sea against strategically important islands. These massive Arctic islands include Franz Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, with their nuclear, second-strike capabilities.

The second excerpted article from the Barents Observer reports that the Ivan Gren, one of the Northern Fleet’s newest large amphibious landing ships, was dispatched on an extended propaganda voyage to promote support for the “special military operation” in Ukraine. Loaded with military displays and an orchestra and choral group, the ship made several port calls along the Northern Sea Route over the course of two months. At a time when the Russian armed forces are consumed with the war in Ukraine, it is noteworthy that their attention to the Arctic is not diminished.

Sources:

Source: Thomas Nielsen, “Northern Fleet kicks off large Barents-Arctic naval exercise,” The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia),18 August 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/08/northern-fleet-kicks-large-barents-arctic-naval-exercise

More than 10 warships and submarines are at sea, including “Pyotr Velikye”, the Northern Fleet’s large nuclear-powered battle cruiser….The naval vessels are supported by the air force and coastal air defense units. The exercise scenario, according to the Russian navy headquarters, is deterring an enemy attack on Russia from the Barents Sea, as well as repelling attacks on the country’s Arctic islands.

Last week, a group of warships set out for the annual Arctic voyage. Those ships, including the destroyer “Admiral Levchenko” and the amphibious assault vessel “Aleksandr Otrakovsky” are currently far north in the Barents Sea, close to the shores of Franz Josef Land. Russia has, over the last decade, rearmed its Arctic archipelagos with new runways for heavy military planes and fighter jets and established missile defense systems aimed at ensuring access and control over the Northern Sea Route. Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya are both strategically important for protection of the bastion defense of the Barents Sea region, including the nuclear arsenal and second-strike capabilities…

Source: Thomas Nilsen, “Loaded with military propaganda, warship setting sail on Arctic voyage”, The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia),23 August 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/08/blessings-anti-fascist-congress-large-landing-ship-embarks-arctic-military

In his opening speech at the so-called first International Anti-Fascist Congress in the Patriot Park in Moscow on 20 August, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that “Ivan Gren” would embark on the agitation-propaganda cruise entitled “The Power is in Truth.” Shoigu said the tour will be a first-of-its-kind.“Within its framework, the “Ivan Gren” large landing ship will make a voyage along the Northern Sea Route and enter remote cities and garrisons.” Sergei Shoigu continued by calling on the international community to unite efforts in the fight against Nazism.

Up North in Severomorsk, where the voyage started, Deputy Commander of the Northern Fleet, Rear Admiral Igor Kurochkin, stated:“The main thing that we want to say with this move is that we warmly and sincerely support our servicemen who courageously and heroically solve the tasks of the special military operation.”

On board the “Ivan Gren” in Severomorsk, were schoolchildren from the Murmansk Nakhimov Naval School and teenagers with Yunarmiya, the military-patriotic movement associated with, and financed by Russia’s Defense Ministry. First port call for the agitation-propaganda sailing was Kandalaksha on the southern shores of the Kola Peninsula. Locals were welcomed onboard to see the exhibitions of weaponry and told stories about how soldiers with the Northern Fleet are heroically fighting for the fatherland in Ukraine.

On display in the hangars and rooms that normally carry tanks and attack helicopters are models of nuclear submarines, aircraft, warships and other military gear. The Northern Fleet’s naval orchestra will perform patriotic compositions and the “Ivan Gren” even bring a song and dance ensemble from Severomorsk.

Second stop on the route was Arkhangelsk, from August 28 to September 1. Thereafter, the ship sails north across the Barents Sea to Belushaya Guba, the largest military settlement on Novaya Zemlya where Russia in the course of the last few years has modernized the airfield to accommodate fighter jets and anti-aircraft missile systems. The second stage of the voyage starts on September 19 and will take place in the western part of the Northern Sea Route with Dikson as first stop and Dudinka by the Yenisei River as next port call.

Coastal West African States Brace for Wave of Terrorism From the Sahel

Posted on October 1, 2022 by Jason Warner

A Ghanaian soldier in 2013.

We need all of us to understand that the best way of making sure that our country continues to be at peace…will be undermined if we go to sleep on this terrorist matter.

The wave of terrorism that has engulfed the Sahel over the past four years is now threatening to spread even further south than ever before, into the states of littoral West Africa. Both Ghana and Togo had previously been viewed to be insulated from the larger-scale jihadist violence caused by Salafi jihadist groups plaguing their neighbors to the north, namely al-Qaeda’s Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State’s Sahara province (ISGS). Now, both Ghana and Togo are preparing for what they perceive to be an impending challenge of violence in their northern borders as both groups seek greater influence even further south. Two articles from each country help to paint a picture of local perspectives.

As the first article published in pan-African news aggregator AllAfrica.com describes, Ghana is undertaking extensive efforts to fortify its northern regions, those in closest proximity to Burkina Faso, which is one of the continent’s states most prone to jihadist violence. Taken from a transcript released by the office of the President of Ghana, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, the article details that in response to the insecurity it views at its northern borders, Ghana has significantly increased recruitment into its armed services since 2020 and aims to recruit an additional 4,000 soldiers per year through 2024. Additionally, it opened at least 15 new forward operating bases in the north; has rolled out a new “See Something, Say Something” campaign; and has created new special operations, armor, signals, and mechanized artillery brigades. This is all in addition to ambitious new drives for weapons procurements for land, air, and sea. As President Akufo-Addo stated: “We need all of us to understand that the best way of making sure that our country continues to be at peace…will be undermined if we go to sleep on this terrorist matter.” The second article, from the state-owned Ghanaian newspaper Ghana Today, describes how Ghana recently asked a U.S. delegation for counterterrorism assistance to address challenges at its northern borders. As the article notes, the request was underscored by Ghana’s claims that the jihadist insecurity in Burkina Faso (and Mali and Niger further north) is a result of the United States’ wars in the Middle East and South Asia, as well as its role in deposing Moammar Qaddafi in Libya in 2011.

Ghana’s neighbor, Togo, is interpreting the impending threat of jihadist violence from the north similarly. As the third article from Togolese news source ALome.com notes, Togo’s diplomatic corps returned to Lomé recently to convene under a new theme related to strategies for regions dealing with terrorism. Emphasizing Togo’s new concern for the threats of jihadist violence coming from the north, the convention’s keynote speaker was Somalia’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, whom Togo had invited to share with it lessons learned from Somalia’s fight against al-Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, al-Shabaab. Finally, in the fourth article, also from ALome.com, two editorialists writing under pseudonyms underscored the broader relationship between so many West African countries’ recent victimization by al-Qaeda and Islamic State terror attacks and the question of national unity. As they write, so widespread and destabilizing have threats of terrorism become in West Africa, touching more citizens than before, that states and their citizens could reasonably find a new sense of patriotism—a “rally around the flag” effect—in banding together to combat the threats of such groups. As they write, “In order to counter the common agreement of terrorist groups to create anarchy and carry out massacres…it is really a question of awakening the patriotic fiber where it is sleeping and restoring it where it is destroyed.”

Sources:

Source: Office of the Presidency of Ghana, “Ghana: ‘We’re Investing to Secure Our Borders Against Terrorist Threats’ – President Akufo-Addo,” AllAfrica.com (a centrist pan-African news aggregator), 22 August 2022. https://allafrica.com/stories/202208230416.html.

The President of the Republic, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, has emphasized the government’s strong commitment to strengthening and fortifying the country’s northern borders and points of entry against the threats of terrorism and violent extremism.

According to the President, “We can’t be complacent and take that for granted. We need all of us to understand that the best way of making sure that our country continues to be at peace so that we can get on with resolving the challenges of development and elimination of poverty, which is our main concern, will be undermined if we go to sleep on this terrorist matter.”

The President noted that the “See Something, Say Something” campaign, being undertaken by National Security, has caught the imagination of people.

In terms of manpower expansion, the Armed Forces recruited and trained some three thousand (3,000) soldiers between 2017 and 2020. It has, since 2021, embarked on accelerated nationwide recruitment and training to churn out a minimum of four thousand (4,000) officers and soldiers annually until 2024, in order to beef up the strength of our Armed Forces to optimal levels.

The Akufo-Addo Government has created additional bases, specialized units, and brigades, with the acquisition of requisite equipment, to enhance operations, particularly along Ghana’s northern frontiers. This expansion has already seen the creation and establishment of the Army Special Operations Brigade, Armoured Brigade, Signal Brigade, and two (2) Mechanised Battalions, which are deployed in the Upper West and Upper East Regions.

The construction and equipping of fifteen (15) Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) across our northern frontiers for the Armed Forces for the Northern Border Project are also ongoing.

A number of combat vehicles, equipment, and weaponry, comprising about one hundred and sixty-three (163) Armoured Personnel Carriers and other combat vehicles, trucks and general vehicles, surveillance, and communication equipment, including optical and critical mass of night vision equipment, as well as weapons, ammunitions, and body armor, have been acquired to enhance intelligence acquisition, offer better protection, improve mobility and firepower for troops on internal security operations, including those deployed to the northern frontiers.

Source: Rex Mainoo Yeboah,“West Africa: Ghana Appeals to the U.S. to Help Fight Terrorism in West Africa,” Ghana Today (state-owned national newspaper), 29 August 2022. https://ghanatoday.gov.gh/news/ghana-appeals-to-us-to-help-fight-terrorism-in-west-africa/.

President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo has appealed to the United States Government to help West African deal with the threat of terrorism and violent extremism.

Speaking with a U.S. bipartisan Congressional delegation that paid him a visit at the Jubilee House, President Akufo-Addo said the threats posed by the expanding Islamic network were detrimental to the socioeconomic development of the region.

He told the delegation that the growing threat of terrorism in the region was a result of the U.S. decade-long fight against terrorism in the Middle East and other parts of the world.

The President said the terrorism phenomenon further heightened in the region when the U.S. fought and drove hardened jihadist groups from the Middle East a decade ago, and the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime. Terrorism groups, which were originally confided in countries bordering the Sahel regions, took advantage of the collapse of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime and penetrated the West African region such as Mail to find refuge from the U.S. fight against them in the Middle East.

Source: Akoyi A. and K. T. (Pseudonyms), “Les priorités de la diplomatie togolaise pour les 12 mois à venir: Maintenir le cap ‘des initiatives de bons offices et de médiation’ (The priorities of Togolese diplomacy for the next 12 months: Maintain the course of ‘good offices and mediation initiatives’).” ALome.com (Togolese news site), 6 September 2022. http://news.alome.com/h/140788.html.

Diplomats accredited to the Togolese Republic made their diplomatic return on Friday, September 2 to the capital Lomé for the year 2022-2023. For its second edition, this meeting between diplomats posted in Lomé took place around a topical theme linked to the challenges facing the continent: “Security challenges and strategies for stabilizing regions of the continent confronted with terrorism and to violent extremism.”

The former Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Somalia, Abdissaïd Muse Ali, was rightly invited to share his country’s experiences in the fight against terrorism. With this in mind, he presented a presentation to enlighten his fellow diplomats on the Modus Operandi of pirates and extremists.

In recent years, radicalism is gaining more and more status. Following Mali, Burkina Faso, Benin, Togo, and other countries are expanding the list of countries targeted by armed groups. Hence the need to converge energies, harmonize stabilization strategies, to stick together between nations, forgetting political divisions.

Source: Kossi Kone, “Lutte contre le terrorisme, restaurer la fibre patriotique (Fight against terrorism, restore the patriotic fiber),” IciLome.com (Togolese news site),9 September 2022. https://icilome.com/2022/09/afrique-lutte-contre-le-terrorisme-restaurer-la-fibre-patriotique/.

In Mali, as in Burkina Faso, Niger, Benin, and Togo, terrorist attacks affect populations and defense forces with loss of life and destruction of infrastructure. Earlier this week, dozens of civilians (traders and students) were killed by an artisanal mine laid by terrorists in northern Burkina Faso.

The governments of all these countries fight as best they can, militarily, against this barbarism. However, with the experiences of the Western powers in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is obvious that the military component is insufficient to carry out this fight effectively.

In order to counter the common agreement of terrorist groups to create anarchy and carry out massacres, it is essential that the social contract, which must be the figurehead of any nation, should be revisited and rebuilt. It is really a question of awakening the patriotic fiber where it is sleeping and restoring it where it is destroyed.To this end, this love of the fatherland cannot be decreed as some governments hope. It is the result of continuous construction, the foundations of which are laid by the social, economic, and security policies of the leaders.

Image Information:

Image: A Ghanaian soldier in 2013.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ghana_Armed_Forces_%E2%80%93_Military_Sergeant_Soldier.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 2.0

Russia Claims Victory in Vostok 2022 Exercise

Posted on October 1, 2022 by Ray Finch

President Putin and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov, Vostok 2022, 6 September 2022.

One of Russia’s large-scale, annual military exercises, Vostok-2022, took place from 1-7 September. As with such exercises, it was widely covered in the Russian media, and as the brief excerpt from the Ministry of Defense’s TV Zvezda news network indicates, Russian forces again proved victorious. The article also stresses that Russia has not been isolated by its aggression against Ukraine, pointing out that 10 countries participated: Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, China, India, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, and Tajikistan. The article says that President Putin arrived at the Sergeevsky training ground to watch the final part of the exercises from a specially equipped command post. He watched his soldiers taking lines, liberating settlements, and forcing enemy retreats.

Sources:

Maxim Petrenko, Sergey Lebedev, “Враг уничтожен: как прошли учения Восток-2022»на полигоне Сергеевский (The enemy is destroyed: how did the exercises Vostok-2022 at the Sergeevsky training ground),” TV Zvezda (Ministry of Defense news network), 6 September 2022. https://tvzvezda.ru/news/2022961429-48GVw.html

Vladimir Putin watched the maneuvers from a specially equipped command post. From there, he fully assessed the operational situation. Real-time data came even from the distant borders of the huge test site. All thanks to cameras installed in the fields with 32x magnification.

At the same time, the Chief of the General Staff had a connection with all the commanders-in-chief. The most up-to-date information was received from the training ground to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, the technical characteristics of the weapons used were shown on the screen.

According to the legend of the exercises, the mock enemy “Vostochnye” attacked the “Northern” and their allies, wedging 200 kilometers into the depth of defense. The enemy was stopped, suffered losses, but retained reserves. From this point, the action begins to unfold – a grouping of troops, supported by artillery and tactical landing forces, hitting the enemy, taking lines and liberating settlements. Massed strikes by rocket troops and artillery, breaking the enemy’s reserves as well, are forcing the enemy to retreat.

A special feature of Vostok this year is the creation ofa coalition grouping of the armed forces of ten countries – Russia, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Armenia, Belarus, India, Kyrgyzstan, China, Mongolia, Tajikistan. Operational groups of the defense departments of Kazakhstan, Laos, Nicaragua and Syria were also involved….…The participants of the maneuvers noted that all the goals of the exercises were fulfilled. The issues of ensuring military security in the Eastern Region have been worked out.

Image Information:

Image: President Putin and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov, Vostok 2022, 6 September 2022.
Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69288
Attribution: CCA CA 4.0 Intl

Colombia’s Gustavo Petro Promises New Approach to Security and Drugs

Posted on October 1, 2022 by Ryan Berg

Newly inaugurated president, Gustavo Petro.

Colombia’s new president, Gustavo Petro, elected in June 2022, has wasted no time outlining the country’s new position on the fight against illegal drugs. Petro has proposed a plan of “total peace,” an ambitious proposal to disarm around two dozen criminal organizations operating in the country. As part of this proposal, Spanish center-left online daily Público reports the Petro administration is willing to suspend the practice of extradition and forgo arrest warrants to encourage criminal groups to participate in a ceasefire. While nearly two dozen groups would be eligible to participate, the Petro administration has especially sought to entice the dissidents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN), two of the oldest and largest guerrilla groups in the country. Mexican daily El Financiero also reported that the Petro administration has floated a proposal to decriminalize cocaine. For now, Colombia’s new government says it will favor crop substitution policies, paying farmers to grow alternatives to the coca plant. Petro’s plan for “total peace,” combined with a new posture on narcotics policy, if implemented fully, may help to tamp down violence in Colombia at least temporarily. Similar plans have been tried in Central America and have led to short-term reductions in violence. However, the large size and value of many criminal economies easily attract illicit actors, often leading to the splintering of criminal organizations, as happened with the FARC during earlier negotiations; and creates vacuums normally filled by upstart groups. As such, while Petro’s plans may produce new outcomes, it seems more likely that most gains might be merely ephemeral.

Sources:

Source: “Los avances de Colombia para alcanzar la paz total prometida por Gustavo Petro (The advances of Colombia to achieve the total peace promised by Gustavo Petro),” Público (a Spanish online daily considered center-left), 17 September 2022.

https://www.publico.es/internacional/avances-colombia-alcanzar-paz-total-prometida-gustavo-petro.html

Total Peace is not simply the negotiated disarmament of 18,000 men…from the 22 armed groups that have declared that they want to join this policy…Total Peace is to generate an environment to end the war once and for all. It is meant to find solutions to the social conflict generated by inequality, exclusion and lack of opportunities and aim to build social, environmental and economic justice. including them in a draft National Development Plan, which must be presented to Congress by February 7, 2023, as the deadline…For now, Petro has enough votes to move Total Peace forward.

Source: “Este es el plan de Gustavo Petro, presidente de Colombia, para terminar con guerra vs. la cocaína (This is the plan of Gustavo Petro, president of Colombia, to end the war vs. cocaine),” El Financiero (Mexican daily with good regional reporting), 1 September 2022. https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/bloomberg/2022/09/01/este-es-el-plan-de-gustavo-petro-presiente-de-colombia-para-terminar-con-guerra-vs-la-cocaina/

Minutes after taking office last month, leftist President Gustavo Petro called for a new approach, saying in his inaugural address that the policies pursued by Bogotá and Washington have fueled violence without reducing consumption. Every week more details emerge about the change of course…In practice, if Colombia unilaterally decriminalized cocaine, it would violate international agreements and cause a break with the United States and other countries…This pariah status would likely harm the nation’s ability to trade and access the global financial system.

Image Information:

Image: Newly inaugurated president, Gustavo Petro.
Source: El Macarenazoo, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:01GustavoPetro.jpg
Attribution: CCA 3.0

Iran Intercepts Crystal Meth Shipment From Afghanistan

Posted on October 1, 2022 by Michael Rubin

Customs officials discover 500 kilograms of crystal meth in a truck crossing from Afghanistan.

The discovery of a 500 kg shipment of crystal meth today marks the sixth large shipment discovered.

In the world of narcotics sales, Afghanistan has long been the world’s top producer of illegal opium. However, the excerpted article from general interest Iranian website Newsin.ir reports that a customs inspector at Mahiroud, an Iranian border post near the midpoint of Iran and Afghanistan’s 572-mile frontier, recently intercepted a truck carrying 500 kg of crystal meth coming from Afghanistan. Crystal meth is made from the ephedra plant, widely available in Afghanistan. That the seized haul was crystal meth suggests that the Taliban are expanding their embrace of the illicit economy beyond the sale of opium. Presumably, the Taliban seek to raise funds as they struggle with the responsibility of going from insurgents to national rulers, responsible for funding ordinary government operations. To that end, Afghanistan’s illegal narcotics have created numerous problems for Iran. Not only does Iran serve as a transport corridor for the illicit products from Afghanistan, but its citizens are also consumers. Moreover, while Iran fights its own domestic drug war at great cost in blood and treasure, many within the Iranian regime are also complicit in the trade and fan the flames of organized transnational organized crime.

Source:

“Kashef-e Mohamuleh 500 Kilo-ye Shisha dar Morzha-ye Sharq-e Tawsat Gomrak (Discovery of 500 kilograms of Crystal Meth at Eastern Border Customs),” Newzin (general interest Iran news website), 4 September 2022. https://newsin.ir/fa/content/24366494

…Farideh Zubaydi, deputy legal and customs supervisor, said, “Since the beginning of this year [March 21, 2022], customs discovered five large shipments of narcotics, mainly shipments of meth with Afghan origins. Today’s discovery makes that six major discoveries. He added: “Shipments of 580 kg, 153 kg, 400 kg, 61 kg and 1118 kg of narcotics had been discovered by customs colleagues since the beginning of the year. The discovery of a 500 kg shipment of crystal meth today marks the sixth large shipment discovered by customs. With divine blessings, while taking advantage of minimum available facilities, our colleagues this morning at Mahiroud Customs post in South Khorasan province were able to discover 500 kilograms of crystal meth that was professionally embedded in the tanker floor of the truck from Afghanistan.

Iran’s Customs Deputy added: “Reports received from Mahiroud Customs in South Khorasan indicate that at 9:30 a.m., the trainer of the drug-sniffing dogs of this post was inspecting a white tanker truck driven by an Afghan national, and taking into account the risk indicators, managed to discover the professional placement of 500 one-kilogram packets of crystal meth.

Image Information:

Image: Customs officials discover 500 kilograms of crystal meth in a truck crossing from Afghanistan.
Source: Fars News Agency https://media.farsnews.ir/Uploaded/Files/Images/1401/06/14/14010614000228_Test_PhotoN.jpg
Attribution: