FMSO

Open source research on foreign perspectives of defense and security issues, emphasizing those topics that are understudied or unconsidered.

Russia To Provide Belarus a Potential Nuclear Delivery Capability

Posted on August 1, 2022 by Dr Charles Bartles

Russian Air Force Su-25 Ground Attack Aircraft.

Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) with 9M723K5 Short Range Ballistic Missiles and Transloader of the Iskander-M.

“Lukashenko has asked Putin to help convert Belarusian military aircraft to carry nuclear warheads.”

“The strengthening of the “missile fist” of the Union State can deter the deployment of critical, but vulnerable stationary objects of NATO military infrastructure near the borders of both Belarus and Russia.”

The accompanying excerpted article from pro-Kremlin daily Izvestiya describes Russian plans to provide Belarus with the Iskander missile system. Russia exports the Iskander-E limited capability export variant to Armenia and Algeria. However, according to Izvestiya, due to changing “geopolitical realities,” Russia will provide Belarus with the same version of the Iskander that the Russian Armed Forces field. In a related development, Russian government news service Interfax describes President Putin’s proposal to modernize Belarus’s aging fleet of Su-25 ground attack aircraft and President Lukashenko’s request to modify Belarussian aircraft so they may employ nuclear weapons. In February, Belarus removed verbiage from the constitution regarding its status as a “nuclear-free zone.” This prompted speculation that Russia may be planning to deploy nuclear weapons on Belarussian territory. There have been no announcements from Moscow or Minsk on what, if any, arrangements they have made for such a contingency, but the announcement about the Iskander, which is capable of nuclear delivery, and Lukashenko’s request for nuclear delivery capable aircraft is notable.

Source:

Anton Lavrov, “Идите под ‘зонтик’ (Go Under the ‘Umbrella’),” Izvestiya (large circulation pro-Kremlin daily newspaper), 28 June 2022. https://iz.ru/1356221/anton-lavrov/idite-pod-zontik

On June 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Iskander [missile systems] would be transferred to our closest. According to him, Belarus will receive a variant with both ballistic and cruise missiles.

This means that we are talking about transferring to a partner in the Union State not a limited and simplified export version of the Iskander, but a full-fledged formidable system that is not inferior in capabilities to those that are in service with our country and are now being successfully used in a special operation in Ukraine.

Due to international agreements, the export Iskander-E is limited to a range of 280 km. The deployment of such in Belarus would not bring a serious increase in NATO territory controlled by them compared to the Iskanders already in the Kaliningrad region…

Such a radical discrepancy in the capabilities of the export and “home” version has long encouraged the leadership of Belarus to strive to obtain the Russian version. But the issue of its acquisition, as well as price, for various reasons, remained the subject of bargaining between Minsk and Moscow for years. Dramatically changed geopolitical realities, it seems, will allow Alexander Lukashenko to get a variant in the “top configuration”. It is clear that in the event of a real conflict, it will be possible to use it jointly with the Russian Federation and according to a single plan.

The strengthening of the “missile fist” of the Union State can deter the deployment of critical, but vulnerable stationary objects of NATO military infrastructure near the borders of both Belarus and Russia. The Alliance will have to reckon with the prospect of receiving a highly accurate and irresistible retaliatory strike against them in the event of a military confrontation…

Iskander missiles have already been deployed in the Russian Kaliningrad region. But their additional deployment in Belarus will give a significant increase in the reach zone, it will shift another 300 km to the south.

…the Kaliningrad bridgehead has serious shortcomings. Its limited territory is completely visible from all sides by means of NATO reconnaissance, and the Iskander has limited maneuverability there. Issues of ammunition storage and protection are also not easy. Belarus is much better protected from outside surveillance. The complexes on its territory will have better survivability not only due to the air defense “umbrella”, but also due to their ability to maneuver around the country and even beyond its borders. It is much more difficult to hunt for ground launchers in the wide open area of Belarus than the small area of Kaliningrad. The experience of the special operation has shown that mobile long-range weapons systems are still a very difficult target to counter…

“Президент РФ предложил дооборудовать Су-25 для Белоруссии на российских заводах (President of the Russian Federation proposed to retrofit Belarussian Su-25s at Russian factories),” Interfax (Russian government news service), 25 June 2022. https://www.interfax.ru/russia/847889

President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin proposed to retrofit the Su-25 aircraft in service with the Belarusian army in Russia.

“The Belarusian army is armed with a fairly large group of Su-25 aircraft. They could be appropriately equipped and training of flight personnel could be started accordingly,” Putin said during Russian-Belarusian summit talks on Saturday. “This modernization should be carried out at aircraft factories in Russia. We will agree on how to do this,” he stressed.Meanwhile, Lukashenko has asked Putin to help convert Belarusian military aircraft to carry nuclear warheads. He acknowledged that he was “very concerned about the training flights of US and NATO aircraft, which are preparing to carry nuclear warheads and nuclear charges.”… “It’s very stressful for us,” he said.

Image Information:

Image: Russian Air Force Su-25 Ground Attack Aircraft
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/Military/MAKS-2007/i-kphcXRn/0/e220a607/X2/maks-2007-003-X2.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Image: Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) with 9M723K5 Short Range Ballistic Missiles and Transloader of the Iskander-M
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/Military/ARMY-2016-Demonstration/i-bSmJnCF/0/ac0d8313/X2/Army2016demo-076-X2.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

China’s Newest Aircraft Carrier Extends Capabilities With “Leapfrogged” Technology

Posted on August 1, 2022 by Cindy Hurst

A J-15 carrier-based fighter aircraft is taking off from Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning (Type 001).

“…a modern navy equipped with aircraft carriers gives China a power projection capability, which was previously unavailable to them.”

In June, China officially floated its third aircraft carrier, the Fujian (Type 003) carrier, which can launch a wider variety of aircraft due to its increased size and the implementation of an electromagnetic catapult launch system (EMALS). The two excerpted articles, published by Chinese internet technology company NetEase and Indian television broadcast network Noida News 18, provide an overview on the newly unveiled carrier and possible implications of using the groundbreaking EMALS. The articles also highlight the emphasis the Chinese place on advancing technological developments as quickly as possible.

China’s first two aircraft carriers, the Liaoning (Type 001) and Shandong (Type 002), feature a ski jump deck, which assist jets taking off from the short runway. The launched aircraft are restricted by size, weight, and payload. The Liaoning is capable of operating 40 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters, while the Shandong can accommodate up to 50 J-15 fighters, an early-warning radar, and anti-submarine aircraft and various helicopters. The Fujian is now China’s largest aircraft carrier at 80,000 tons and 318 meters. Its size, coupled with greater capacity and the more condensed EMALS, allows it to carry more types of carrier-based aircraft than its two predecessors do. These include the upgraded J-15, the new stealth J-35, and the recently unveiled (2020) Air Police 600—an early warning aircraft that can reportedly detect stealth aircraft from a long distance.

Regarding the launching system, it is noteworthy that the next-step technology would have been a steam-piston driven system, which increases the launch and payload capacity from that of the ski jump. As the NetEase authors point out, instead, China “leapfrogged” to EMALS, a technology developed by the United States. The Chinese government, however, claims to have developed and constructed EMALS using all domestic innovation and technology. Regardless, according to Noida News 18, China is already working on its next aircraft carrier (Type 004), which could be nuclear-powered, greatly extending the country’s long-range operational capabilities. In addition to similar observations regarding the Fujian’s technological advances, Indian observers from Noida News 18 commented that China’s aircraft carriers are not designed to be used in a conflict within the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, or Indian Ocean region. The article argues that China has learned from the United States over the past several decades and will most likely use carriers to coerce and punish smaller powers. Most importantly, the authors argue, they “will help China to overcome the limits of their own geography.”

Source:

Song Zhongping,“宋忠平：实现跨越式发展的中国新型航母003 (China’s New Aircraft Carrier 003 Achieves Leapfrog Development),” NetEase (a business and technology oriented Chinese website)20 June 2022. https://www.163.com/dy/article/HAACEBL40552AOD9.html

The Fujian is the first aircraft carrier to have an electromagnetic catapult launch systems (EMALS)… Like the Shandong, the third aircraft carrier is completely developed and manufactured domestically.

The official displacement of the Fujian exceeds 80,000 tons, which is larger than both the Liaoning and Shandong ships… The Fujian is also larger than America’s Kitty Hawk class, but smaller than the USS Ford, which has a full load displacement of 110,000 tons.

The Fujian has adopted so many innovative technologies, some of which are world-class. For example, it is the first time a Chinese aircraft carrier uses EMALS… The new carrier is able to house more types of carrier-based aircraft, such as the upgraded J-15 fighter and the new stealth J-35. It will also carry the Air Police 600, a new type of early warning aircraft.

China developed its aircraft carriers for offshore operations and long-sea escort.

It should take another two years for the ship to become fully operational.

Suyash Desai, “What Does China’s New Aircraft Carrier Say About Its Technology and Strategy,” Noida News18 Online (Indian and English language news service based in Noida India. International coverage provided by CNN while Indian and local news is a product of Indian Broadcast Network), 27 June 2022. https://www.news18.com/news/opinion/what-does-chinas-new-aircraft-carrier-say-about-its-technology-and-strategy-5447215.htmlfpo

China launched its third aircraft carrier this month. The type 003, now named Fujian, is China’s biggest, most modern and most powerful aircraft carrier. At 80,000 tons and 318 meters, the Fujian outstrips all but America’s supercarriers, the new USS Gerald R. Ford-class…

… Fujian is reported to have electromagnetic catapult launch systems (EMALS). Its main advantage is that it accelerates the aircraft more smoothly, putting less stress on their airframes… Fujian helps China catch up with the US… However, like US carries, the Fujian will not be nuclear-powered, meaning its speed, endurance, and long-ranged operational capabilities would still be limited…

…Some authoritative Chinese reports suggest that China has already started the work for building the next aircraft carrier, Type 004, which could possibly be a nuclear-powered carrier. However, there is no concrete evidence to support this claim. It reportedly plans to have six aircraft carriers by 2049 to be a world-class force and become a blue water navy to protect and pursue overseas interests.China’s aircraft carriers are not designed for a Taiwan reunification campaign or to have a direct role in a conflict with big powers like the US or India in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea or Indian Ocean Region. China is learning from the US’ use of carriers over the past several decades and is most likely to use them in coercing and punishing smaller powers in the near and far seas. Also, a modern navy equipped with aircraft carriers gives China a power projection capability, which was previously unavailable to them. But most importantly, the aircraft carriers will help China overcome the limits of their own geography.

Image Information:

Image: A J-15 carrier-based fighter aircraft is taking off from Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning (Type 001)
Source: Government of Japan, https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:A_PLAN_Shenyang_J-15_carrier-based_fighter_aircraft_is_taking_off_from_Chinese_aircraft_carrier_PLANS_Liaoning_%28CV-16%29_20220510.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Vietnam Trains Cambodian Navy Amid Chinese Competition

Posted on August 1, 2022 by Jacob Zenn

Vietnam People’s Navy honor guard at ASEAN defense ministers meeting 2010-10-12.

“The cooperation program in education and training between Cambodian military schools and the [Vietnamese] Naval Academy will continue to expand and develop to improve its effectiveness…”

Vietnam’s Naval Academy has trained Cambodian naval officers for years. Recently, the Vietnamese government-affiliated People’s Army Newspaper reported that the Cambodian navy sent senior officials to Vietnam to discuss how to improve the effectiveness of the program from which thousands of Cambodians have graduated. The article notes the Cambodian cadets receive instruction in history, tradition and naval tasks and functions, while fostering friendship and solidarity between the two neighboring countries’ navies. The continuation of the training program comes amid greater competition from China for influence on the Cambodian navy.

A separate article posted on the Chinese Ministry of Defense website noted that U.S. media outlets and government officials have claimed that China’s development of the Cambodian Ream Naval Base in Sihanoukville lacked transparency and was part of Chinese military strategy to create a global network of naval bases. The Chinese Ministry of Defense, however, claims its naval cooperation with Cambodia is a normal function of international relations and consistent with international law. The ministry also condemned any suggestion that Chinese naval activities in Cambodia pose a threat. Rather, the Chinese claim that Ream Naval Base will improve Cambodia’s ability to protect its maritime territorial integrity and combat piracy and other maritime crimes.

Vietnam is an historical ally of Cambodia and competitor of China with maritime territorial disputes with China over islands in the South China Sea. Therefore, Chinese presence at the Ream Naval Base, near Vietnam’s own naval base in Phú Quốc, draws Vietnam’s attention. Given Vietnamese perception of naval competition with China, continuing to train Cambodian naval cadets is important to Vietnam as it seeks to maintain military influence in Cambodia.

Source:

“Đoàn cán bộ cấp cao Hải quân Hoàng gia Campuchia trao đổi kinh nghiệm tại Học viện Hải quân (A senior official delegation from the Royal Cambodian Navy exchanged experiences at the Naval Academy),” People’s Army Newspaper (government-affiliated media source), 27 June 2022. https://www.qdnd.vn/quoc-phong-an-ninh/tin-tuc/doan-can-bo-cap-cao-hai-quan-hoang-gia-campuchia-trao-doi-kinh-nghiem-tai-hoc-vien-hai-quan-698277

On June 27, a high-ranking delegation of the Royal Cambodian Navy led by Vice Admiral Non Sophat visited and exchanged experiences at the Naval Academy. Dr. Nguyen Van Lam, Director of the Naval Academy, introduced briefly the history, traditions, functions, tasks, achievements and development trajectory of the Naval Academy. Simultaneously, he discussed with the delegation the situation and results of training Cambodian military cadets at the academy. Over the years, the Naval Academy has trained and cultivated thousands of Royal Cambodian Navy officers. Recently, despite the complicated situation of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Academy still organizes trainings for Cambodian students.

The cooperation program in education and training between Cambodian military schools and the Naval Academy will continue to expand and develop to improve its effectiveness further and contribute to fostering more friendship and solidarity between the armies, navies, and peoples of Vietnam and Cambodia to ensure peace, stability, and development of each country in the region and in the world.

Source: “国防部回应美炒作中柬合作：戴着有色眼镜看什么都“不透明 (The Ministry of Defense responded to the United States exaggeration about China-Cambodia cooperation: Like wearing colored glasses to makes everything “blurry”),” mod.gov.cn (Chinese Ministry of Defence website), 22 June 2022. http://www.mod.gov.cn/jzhzt/2022-06/30/content_4914396.htm

Some media continue to exaggerate the normal exchanges and cooperation between China and Cambodia, which is entirely devoid of ulterior motives. On June 8, the upgrading and reconstruction project of the Yunyang Naval Base assisted by China officially commenced. It conforms to the domestic laws of the two countries and relevant international laws and international practices and is not targeted at a third party. The construction of the Yunyang base is aimed at strengthening the Cambodian Navy’s ability to maintain maritime territorial integrity and combat maritime crimes.

Image Information:

Image: Vietnam People’s Navy honor guard at ASEAN defense ministers meeting 2010-10-12
Source: Master Sgt. Jerry Morrison, U.S. Air Force,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vietnam_People%27s_Navy_honor_guard_at_ASEAN_defense_ministers_meeting_2010-10-12_1.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

Benin Park Rangers Take on Counterterrorism Tasks

Posted on August 1, 2022 by Jacob Zenn

“In Benin, there is a lot of communication between us [park rangers] and the Beninese armed forces, but our roles are very distinct.”

The French-language Beninese investigative media website daabaaru.bj published an article discussing an attack that left two Beninese police officers and two militants dead along Benin’s northern border with Burkina Faso. A separate excerpted article in the Paris-based pan-African website jeuneafrique.com discussed the incident in the context of Pendjari Park rangers, who work in the area. Although no one has taken credit for the attack, it occurred in the area of operations of the al-Qaeda–affiliated Group for Support of Muslims and Islam (JNIM). According to the jeuneafrique.com article, the rangers acknowledge that they now coordinate with security forces to monitor jihadists’ infiltration into bases in the national park. Current protocol for the park rangers when confronting jihadists is to contact the Beninese military and withdraw to allow the soldiers to intervene. The article suggests that if the rangers are to be trained by a third party, the contractors should be former soldiers because they already have some relevant skills for both conservation and encountering terrorist groups. In addition, although the park rangers acknowledge that several of them have lost their lives to jihadists in the Sahel in recent years, they are determined to continue working. The rangers also note that they are not capable of developing a strategy to prevent terrorism, but it is necessary for the governments in the Sahel to formulate a more comprehensive strategy for how park rangers should deal with not only poachers, but now also jihadists.

Source:

“Quatre morts dans une Attaque terroriste (Four dead in a terrorist attack),” daabaaru.bj (French-language Beninese website), 26 June 2022. https://daabaaru.bj/atacora-quatre-morts-dans-une-attaque-terroriste/

The Commissariat of Dassari, commune of Matéri, department of Atacora was attacked by an armed group on the night of Saturday June 25 to Sunday June 26, 2022. The result was four dead, including two on the Beninese side and significant material damages.

Source: “African Parks: ‘Au Bénin, face aux jihadistes, nous ne définissons pas la stratégie militaire’ (African Parks: ‘In Benin, faced with the jihadists, we do not define the military strategy’),” jeuneafrique.com (Paris-based pan-African website), 25 June 2022. https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1355173/politique/african-parks-au-benin-face-aux-jihadistes-nous-ne-definissons-pas-la-strategie-militaire/

The rangers are armed according to the park where they work for the needs of the missions entrusted to them. Their training, on the other hand, is relatively standard: it includes modules on respect for human rights, on escalation during an engagement, on how to deal with different risks and on how to behave when arriving at a crime scene.We use external trainers, who work under the direction of our head instructor. The outside supporters are often former soldiers, some of whom also have real expertise in the field of conservation. Our role is not to carry out national security missions, but to preserve the integrity of the areas entrusted to us. Our rangers are trained to fight against poaching, but are effectively confronted with all kinds of threats, including jihadists. In Benin, there is a lot of communication between us and the Beninese armed forces, but our roles are very distinct. And when it is established that jihadists are involved, we withdraw immediately and let the military intervene.

Mexican Criminal Organizations Poised To Dominate South America’s Illicit Economies

Posted on August 1, 2022 by Ryan Berg

Mexican Police stand guard on the back of a truck in Mexico City.

“The Sinaloa Cartel’s tentacles stretch across almost the entire globe… It does not have a hierarchical structure, but rather is made up of cells independent of each other, which facilitates its deployment.”

Mexico’s drug cartels have been marching through South America and consolidating their gains across the hemisphere. As previously reported (see “Mexican Criminal Organizations Consolidate Their Positions in South America,” Issue 5, 2022 and “Mexican Cartels Buying Land on Colombia – Venezuela Border,” OE Watch, Issue 6, 2022), cartels have cut out middlemen in Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela. According to Spain’scenter-leftdaily El País, the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel are both now physically present in Chile. The article notes that Chilean authorities have uncovered plans for several large drug shipments linked to the two groups. The establishment of a physical presence in Chile has also been blamed for an uptick in homicides and violent crime, as Mexican cartels push out local criminal organizations. Chilean digital publication Pauta mentions a report from an investigatory unit in the public prosecutor’s office confirming the arrival of Mexican cartels in the country. The report notes the presence of Mexican cartels in relation to the increase in drug users, as well as increasing involvement in other illicit economies, such as illegal logging and mining. A strong physical presence in Chile for the Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation Cartels would represent a criminal environment in Latin America dominated by two Mexican groups, with an uninterrupted physical presence from the United States southern border to the southern tip of Patagonia.

Source:

“Los dos principales cárteles de la droga mexicanos aterrizan en Chile (The two main Mexican drug cartels land in Chile),” El País (Spain’s major daily generally considered center-left), 29 June 2022. https://elpais.com/mexico/2022-06-29/los-dos-principales-carteles-de-la-droga-mexicanos-aterrizan-en-chile.html

A plane from the Sinaloa Cartel tried to send 665 kilograms of cocaine from Chile to the port of Rotterdam, in the Netherlands. The CJNG established a laboratory in the Chilean city of Iquique. It was also discovered trying to introduce 3.5 tons of marijuana into the country through the port of San Antonio, according to the Chilean Prosecutor’s Office. The evidence and sightings of cartel operatives no longer leave room for doubt about their presence in the region. The Sinaloa Cartel’s tentacles stretch across almost the entire globe… It does not have a hierarchical structure, but rather is made up of cells independent of each other, which facilitates its deployment.

Source: “Tres carteles internacionales de droga ya llegaron a Chile (Three international drug cartels have already arrived in Chile),” Pauta (a Chilean digital publication), 8 September 2021. https://www.pauta.cl/nacional/narcotrafico-chile-carteles-de-droga-fiscalia-informe

This is part of the alerts that the 2021 Report of the Drug Trafficking Observatory discovered. “Our country faces for the first time the threat of the installation in Chile of international drug cartels, which we did not know about until now.”

Image Information:

Image: Mexican Police stand guard on the back of a truck in Mexico City.
Source: https://www.publicdomainpictures.net/en/view-image.php?image=88661&picture=mexican-police-force-on-truck
Attribution: CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0)

Iván Márquez Survives Attack but FARC Dissidents Remain on the Run

Posted on August 1, 2022 by Ryan Berg

Iván Márquez, one of the leaders of the FARC dissidents known as the Second Marquetalia.

“Márquez ‘is being protected by the Maduro regime.’ Colombia’s Minister of Defense indicated that Márquez was part of a confrontation and that in ‘that dispute, one of these vendettas occurred in which his integrity was affected.’”

Colombia’s leading weekly magazine Semana recently published rumors that Iván Márquez, the leader of peace negotiations with the Colombian government who later returned to arms, had been killed (see “Colombian Military Continues To Forcefully Dismantle FARC Dissident Structure,” OE Watch, Issue 4). This news story played for two weeks in the wake of the previous assassinations of at least four FARC commanders in the same border area. However, according to Spanish-language CNN Español, Colombia’s intelligence service says Márquez survived the attack and the outlet reports that Márquez is convalescing in a hospital in Caracas, protected by Venezuela’s Maduro regime. CNN Español also reports that FARC dissidents later released a video confirming the attack on Márquez and his subsequent survival. Although Márquez apparently survived, changing circumstances on the ground and a string of recent assassinations suggest that the various organizations of FARC dissidents continue to lose ground to Colombia’s National Liberation Army and rival criminal groups, including the Tren de Aragua and Mexican cartels.

Source:

“Urgente: Fuentes venezolanas le confirman a SEMANA que Iván Márquez sí está muerto (Urgent: Venezuelan sources confirm to SEMANA that Iván Márquez is indeed dead),” Semana (Colombia’s leading weekly magazine), 2 July 2022. https://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/urgente-fuentes-venezolanas-le-confirman-a-semana-que-ivan-marquez-si-esta-muerto/202250/

In Venezuela, in the middle of an attack, Iván Márquez, maximum leader of the FARC dissidents of the so-called Second Marquetalia, died. According to the information known about the event, he fell in the middle of an attack. It transpired that Márquez’s death occurred in the midst of a brutal war that is being waged in Venezuelan territory between criminal organizations to keep control of the illicit drug business, especially in the border area with Colombia.

Source: “‘Iván Márquez’ se encuentra en un hospital de Caracas y es ‘protegido por el régimen de Maduro,’ afirma el ministro de Defensa de Colombia (‘Iván Márquez’ is in a hospital in Caracas and is ‘protected by the Maduro regime,’ says the Colombian Defense Minister),” CNN Español (Spanish-language outlet of the popular American news site), 13 July 2022. https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2022/07/13/ivan-marquez-se-encuentra-en-un-hospital-de-caracas-y-es-protegido-por-el-regimen-de-maduro-afirma-el-ministro-de-defensa-de-colombia-orix/

Colombia’s Minister of Defense, Diego Molano, said on Wednesday that he has been informed by Colombia’s intelligence services that Luciano Marín Arango, “Iván Márquez,” one of the leaders of the dissidents of the FARC, is in a hospital in Venezuela. Speaking to several journalists in Bogotá, Molano said that Márquez “is being protected by the Maduro regime.” The official indicated that Márquez was part of a confrontation and that in “that dispute, one of these vendettas occurred in which his integrity was affected.” Days ago, the FARC dissidents… assured in a video that on June 30^th Márquez “was the victim of a criminal attack directed from the army barracks and the commandos of the police” and that “luckily he was unharmed.”

Image Information:

Image: Iván Márquez, one of the leaders of the FARC dissidents known as the Second Marquetalia.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ivan-Marquez-GoraHerria.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0

Yemen’s Houthi Movement Continues To Recruit and Indoctrinate Child Combatants

Posted on August 1, 2022 by Lucas Winter

Houthi logo on a house in Yafaa-Dhamar, Yemen (2013).

“…Observers attribute the Houthis’ frantic race to recruit children to a need to cover huge losses on the fighting fronts…”

Yemen’s Ansarallah, a.k.a. the Houthis, have been indoctrinating child combatants with a militant anti-Western ideology for years. According to the accompanying excerpt from the Emirati daily al-Ittihad, the Houthis have recruited more than 30,000 children to fight in Yemen’s ongoing conflict. Ansarallah began as summer camps where children and adolescents, who were known as “Believing Youth,” were steeped in Zaydi religious doctrine, a Shiite offshoot prevalent in Yemen. They also learned to oppose stridently external involvement in their society’s affairs, particularly from the United States. As the Houthis morphed into an armed rebel movement in the early 2000s, their summer camps evolved into a recruitment pool for committed foot soldiers.

Although Ansarallah is now the de facto government of former North Yemen, it remains faithful to its roots as a network of youth training and indoctrination centers. Since April, in the context of a nation-wide truce, the group vowed to stop sending children to the battlefield. However, according to an expert cited by the Saudi-funded daily Independent Arabia, the Houthis have ramped up their recruitment activities this summer to make up for losses sustained in a failed attempt to take the city of Marib over the past year. A variety of methods are used to get parents to send their children to the camps, including extensive nation-wide media campaigns, material incentives, and various forms of pressure and blackmail. Lagging recruitment this summer, as noted in the accompanying article from the Saudi daily al-Sharq al-Awsat, has led Ansarallah to force government employees to send their children to the summer camps or risk losing their jobs.

Sources:

”الحوثي” يواصل سياسة تجنيد الأطفال

(‘Houthis’ continue child recruitment policies),” al-Ittihad (Emirati daily), 2 June 2022. https://tinyurl.com/3bdtwwmy

Majed Al-Fadael, Undersecretary of the Yemeni Ministry of Human Rights and a member of the Supervisory Committee for the Exchange of Prisoners and Abductees, told Al-Ittihad that although there are no accurate statistics on the number of child soldiers, estimates indicate that more than 30,000 children have been dragged into the fighting fronts by the Houthi militia.

Source:

”المراكز الصيفية” طعم حوثي لتجنيد الأطفال

(‘Summer Camps’: Houthi bait for recruiting children),” Independent Arabia (Saudi-funded daily), 18 June 2022. https://tinyurl.com/yckr8vyp

Observers attribute the Houthis’ frantic race to recruit children to a need to cover huge losses on the fighting fronts, especially during a nearly two-year battle to control the strategic city of Marib.

Source:

”الحوثيون يلزمون موظفيهم إحضار أبنائهم إلى معسكرات التجنيد والتعبئة

(Houthis force employees to bring their children to the recruitment and mobilization camps),” al-Sharq al-Awsat (influential Saudi daily), 20 June 2022. https://tinyurl.com/yj83zj7j

Despite intimidation, incentives, and media campaigns in which mosques and dozens of radio and television stations participated, the Houthi militias failed to convince the majority of students’ parents in the occupied Yemeni capital to enroll their children in their sectarian “summer camps.” For this reason, they have resorted to forcing employees in government institutions and departments to bring their children to the camps.

Image Information:

Image: Houthi logo on a house in Yafaa-Dhamar, Yemen (2013)
Source: Abdullah Sarhan, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Huthi-Logo.JPG
Attribution: CC 4.0

Iran Believes Turkey’s Rapprochement With Israel and Saudi Arabia Is a Threat

Posted on August 1, 2022 by Ihsan Gunduz

The President of Israel, Isaac Herzog, and the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

“This dual-track rapprochement, along with the aforementioned factors specific to Iraq and Syria, has created the perception in Iran that a regional front might be in the making… with the primary aim of confronting Iran…”

Turkey’s activities and recent rapprochement with regional actors have created a perception in Iran that a regional front might be forming against Iranian interests. On 27 June, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visited Turkey amid concerns that Turkey is strengthening relations with Iran’s main regional rivals, Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Iranian Foreign Minister’s visit followed on the heels of visits by both Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid. The accompanying articles analyze the regional power competition through these visits. According to the excerpted article from security news focused al-Monitor, Turkey’s improved relations with Israel worry Iran because Turkey and Israel have recently had a convergence of interests in countering Iran’s influence in the Middle East, especially in Syria.

The second article from pro-government Turkish daily Sabah states that the visits of MBS and Yair Lapid demonstrate the concrete results of Turkey’s desire to normalize its relations with the regional players and strengthen its role in the regional power balance. The article notes that Turkey’s normalization of relations with regional players is not intended to threaten the interest of third parties, including Iran, even though it might influence the calculations of other players. The article further states that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are likely to repair their relationship quickly and strengthen their cooperation in trade, tourism, construction, energy, the defense industry, and new technologies. Iran’s influence in the region through its proxies and the progress of its nuclear program concern the regional players, especially Israel. Regional dynamics will likely have an impact on ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. Ultimately, normalizing Turkey’s relations with Saudi Arabia and Israel will play a significant role in the power balance in the region and help curb Iran’s growing regional influence while ongoing, indirect negotiations continue between the United States and Iran to restore the 2015 nuclear deal.

Source:

Amberin Zaman,“Iran’s foreign minister checks in with Ankara as Turkey courts Tehran’s foes,” al-Monitor (globally read security news site with regionally based reporting),27 June 2022. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/06/irans-foreign-minister-checks-ankara-turkey-courts-tehrans-foes

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian [visited] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara… part of an effort to manage growing tensions between the prickly regional rivals.

Upon his arrival, Amir-Abdollahian said he would be discussing “comprehensive long-term cooperation” between Iran and Turkey with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu and Erdogan.

In any case friction over Israel, which has deepened as Turkey mends fences with the Jewish state, has taken a back seat to Iran’s other big concerns, observers say. “Syria and Iraq are at the top of the list,” …“Iran is deeply worried about the prospect of a new Turkish military operation, especially if it’s going to involve Tel Rifaat,” Azizi told Al-Monitor. He was referring to the Syrian town south of Aleppo that is close to the Shiite-majority town of Nubl and Al-Zahra that could also act as a gateway allowing Turkey and its Sunni rebel allies to expand their influence around Aleppo…

“From Iran’s point of view, this could be a prelude to the further expansion of the influence of Turkey toward central Syria, enabling it to limit Iran’s influence and create a new headache for the Syrian regime,” Azizi added. Erdogan renewed vows to conduct another military operation against the Syrian Kurds today…

Iran’s other concern is Iraq, where Turkey is trying to limit Iran’s influence in the Iraqi political sphere by facilitating the formation of a unified front composed of the Kurdistan Regional Government and the country’s main Sunni faction.

At the same time, the escalation in Turkey’s military operations in Iraqi Kurdistan has raised concerns among Iran and its affiliated Shiite groups that Turkey may seek to establish a permanent sphere of influence in northern parts of Iraq. Those worries were sharpened by KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani’s comments earlier this year about selling Iraqi Kurdish gas to Europe via Turkey to offset supply deficits stemming from sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

But on a wider regional scale, “what worries Iran the most is that Turkey has been improving its relations with Iran’s rivals, particularly Israel and Saudi Arabia,” said Azizi, the Iranian analyst.

Source: Burhanettin Duran, “Bin Salman ve Lapid Ziyaretlerinin ardından… (In the aftermath of Bin Salman and Lapid’s visits…),” Sabah (pro-government Turkish daily),24 June 2022. https://www.sabah.com.tr/yazarlar/duran/2022/06/24/bin-selman-ve-lapid-ziyaretlerinin-ardindan

…official visits [by Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman and Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid] were significant because they demonstrated the concrete results of Turkey’s normalization policy and the country’s strengthening role in balancing the regional power equilibrium. It is especially important to note that the normalization process has been shaped by a mutual commitment, as opposed to a request by either party, so that the relevant expectations can be assessed on a rational basis. At the same time, the normalizing parties strive to ensure that their new relationship does not hurt the interests of third parties. Again, each normalization process has its own dynamics and influences the calculations of others.

Indeed, the joint statement points in that direction. Accordingly, the two nations aim to strengthen their cooperation regarding trade, tourism, construction and energy, as well as the defense industry and new technologies.

Having turned over a new leaf in its relationship with Riyadh, Ankara finds an opportunity to play a more active role in the region… Meanwhile, Iran’s proxies and the progress of that country’s nuclear program, which ostensibly can build nuclear weapons, remain a source of concern for the entire region. That situation, in turn, encourages all countries in the region, starting with Saudi Arabia, to become nuclear powers themselves.

Indeed, Tel Aviv is among those capitals in the Middle East, which are most unhappy with Iran’s growing regional influence…

Image Information:

Image: The President of Israel, Isaac Herzog, and the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Source: The Spokesperson Unit of the President of Israel, via Wikimedia,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Isaac_Herzog_state_visit_to_Turkey,March_2022%28GPOHA1_1042%29.jpg.jpeg
Attribution: CC-BY-SA-3.0 | Uploaded with pattypan

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards To Expand Drug Treatment Center

Posted on August 1, 2022 by Michael Rubin

Inauguration of the second phase of the Shahid Ziyadian Treatment Center, Tehran.

“Sometimes it takes up to a year and a half to find the families of these individuals.”

On 25 June Brigadier General Hasan Hassanzadeh, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) for the greater Tehran region, visited the IRGC’s soon-to-be expanded Shahid Ziadian Treatment Center. Hassanzadeh’s visit is significant for two reasons. First, as the officer in charge of Tehran’s security from enemies foreign and domestic, he is on the fast track for promotion to the top levels of Iran’s security apparatus. Second is his choice to focus attention on drug addiction and other threats facing not only broader Iranian society, but also the Iranian military.

The official media outlet of the Iranian Ministry of Defense, Holy Defense News Agency, describes the imminent expansion of the Shahid Ziadian facility from 1,500 beds to 2,600 beds. By comparison, the James J. Peters Veterans Administration Medical Center in New York, among the largest Veterans Administration hospitals in the United States, has 1,663 beds. While the excerpted article does not detail the ailments that the new facility treats, additional reporting suggests the primary goal of the facility is drug rehabilitation. Photos from Fars News Agency depict young, military-age men in close quarters. Hassanzadeh was also accompanied by Brigadier General Eskandar Momeni, Secretary-General of Iran’s Anti-Narcotics Headquarters. Post-revolutionary Iran has long had some of the toughest drug penalties in world. However, in November 2017 Iran significantly loosened penalties for many drug crimes, perhaps signaling a recognition of the science behind addiction as well as the scope of the problem. In 2009, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, the chief of Iran’s Law Enforcement Forces, said Iran produced 130,000 new addicts annually and acknowledged that more than one million Iranians were now addicted, mostly to opium and heroin. In 2020, Naser Aslani, deputy head of Iran’s Drug Control Headquarters, reported that his agency counted 2.8 million addicts and estimated an additional 1.4 million remained unidentified. The IRGC’s expanded facility in Tehran is a possible reflection of the scope of the problem and perhaps its growing impact on military readiness.

Source:

“Faz-e Jadid Markaz-e Daman-e Shahid Ziadian bezudi Ahdas Mishavad (New Phase of the Shahid Ziadian Treatment Center to be Constructed Soon),”, Holy Defense News Agency (official news agency of the Iranian Ministry of Defense), 25 June 2022. https://defapress.ir/fa/news/530666

General Hassan Hassanzadeh, commander of the Revolutionary Guards for Greater Tehran, said this morning [25 June 2022] at the National Conference for the Celebration of Rescue held at the Martyr Ziadian Treatment Center, “There are 1,500 clients in the Shahid Ziadian Treatment Center affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Greater Tehran. Within the next six months, we will build a new phase of this center for 1,100 people….”

The commander of the Greater Tehran Revolutionary Guards Corps continued, “One of our problems in this center is the time it takes to find the families of the clients, because sometimes it takes up to a year and a half to find the families of these individuals. Another activity of this center is to create vocational training workshops. For this reason, we are now looking to obtain orders for the sewing of military clothing by the clients of this center.”

Image Information:

Image: Inauguration of the second phase of the Shahid Ziyadian Treatment Center, Tehran
Source: Fars News Agency
https://www.farsnews.ir/photo/14001112000780

Iranian Trade With China Is Up, but So Is Political Risk

Posted on August 1, 2022 by Michael Rubin

The Iranian port of Chabahar has become a focal point of Sino-Iranian trade.

“China’s imports from Iran… grew by 26 percent.”

Between 2018 and the end of 2020, Iran’s foreign reserves shrunk from $122 billion to just $4 billion. However, its foreign reserves have since rebounded and are expected to be up to $43 billion by the end of 2022 thanks to record oil prices and a diplomatic environment more conducive to Iranian oil sales. According to Chinese customs authorities cited in the excerpted article from Iranian financial website Bourse24.ir, a healthy chunk of this increase in foreign reserves appears to be due to increasing trade with China. However, the dollar-enumerated trade can be deceptive. Iran often sells oil to China at a steep discount to avoid any questions about sanctions violations, especially as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps controls Iran’s energy sector and has a controlling interest in many Iranian shipping companies. China also historically dumps cheaper manufactured goods in other states to the detriment of those countries’ own manufacturing base. While Iran and China have signaled a mutual desire to increase trade and perhaps even military relations, any willingness by the Iranian government to allow greater Chinese exports into Iran would have high potential costs. Chinese competition with Iran’s manpower-centric sectors, such as textiles and construction, could create a nationalist backlash against both China and Chinese nationals who might be visiting or working in Iran. China and Iran might celebrate the current increase in trade, but further expansion carries risks.

Source:

“Tejarat-e Iran va Chin ba Rashad 18 dar sadi az 6 Milyard Dollar Gozasht (Trade between Iran and China Exceeds $6 billion with 18 Percent Growth),” Bourse24.ir (Iranian financial website), 25 June 2022. https://www.bourse24.ir/news/247196

…The latest statistics released by Chinese customs show that the country’s trade with Iran in the first five months of this year has grown 18 percent compared to the same period a year ago, reach $6.472 billion…. China’s imports from Iran in the first five months of 2022 grew by 26 percent compared to the same period a year ago, reaching $3.192 billion. China imported $2.535 million worth of good from Iran during the same period last year. China’s exports to Iran from January until April this year also grew 11 percent to $3.280 billion. China exported $2.946 billion worth of good to Iran between January and May last year.

Image Information:

Image: The Iranian port of Chabahar has become a focal point of Sino-Iranian trade
Source: Iran Kala Television
https://cdn.iktv.ir/images/thumbnail/20200510/11042013_xl.jpg