Monthly Archives: May 2022

Iran Tries To Justify Abstention in UN Vote Condemning Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Iran’s UN Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi, 2 March 2022.

Iran’s UN Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi, 2 March 2022.

“The security concerns of the Russian Federation must be taken into account.”

The excerpted article from the official government media outlet Islamic Republic News Agency, explains Iran’s abstention from a United Nations resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The article cites Iran’s Ambassador to the UN Majid Takht Ravanchi, who offers a series of excuses without addressing the elephant in the room—Iran’s military, diplomatic, and financial ties to Russia.  First, he questions the UN General Assembly’s right to condemn Russia as opposed to the UN Security Council, although Iran frequently complains that the UN Security Council is archaic, benefits the United States, and is in need of “democratization” and reform.  Second, Ravanchi argues that it was hypocritical to condemn Russia for invading Ukraine but not Saudi Arabia for its actions in Yemen despite the fact that Saudi Arabia’s actions are at the invitation of the UN-recognized government in Yemen and are not part of a war of conquest.  Ravanchi’s complaints about lack of participation may also reflect frustration with a temporary ban that the UN imposed on some Iranian voting in January 2022, due to Tehran’s unpaid dues.

Ravanchi’s need to issue such a lengthy explanation is partly due to the deep unpopularity of the abstention vote inside Iran.  While the Iranian government sought to avoid antagonizing Russia, ordinary Iranians draw a parallel to their experience during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.  Iraq was the aggressor during that conflict, but most of the world nevertheless isolated Iran due to antagonism toward its revolution its and subsequent taking of hostages.  Iranians still lament what they see as a lack of justice at the time and draw parallels between their experience 40 years ago and events in Ukraine today.  They are, therefore, critical of their government’s refusal to side with Ukraine and condemn Russia.  Ravanchi probably understood he needed to explain his vote in order to quell public anger.

Source:

“Qat’anameh Mojomeh-e ‘Amumi Sazman’e Melli ‘Aliyeh Rusiyeh ba 141 ray-e Movafeq Tasvib Shod (The UN General Assembly resolution against Russia was adopted by 141 votes in favor),” Islamic Republic News Agency (official government news outlet), 2 March 2022. https://www.irna.ir/news/84668745

UN members voted in favor of the resolution, which was approved by about 80 countries, condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and calling for the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. The UN General Assembly resolution was adopted by 141 votes to 35, with five abstentions. Russia, Syria, Belarus, North Korea and Eritrea voted against the resolution. Also, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Burundi, the Central African Republic, China, Congo, Cuba, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, India, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Madagascar, Mali, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Senegal, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tajikistan, Uganda, Tanzania, Vietnam and Zimbabwe abstained….

Following the adoption of the UN General Assembly resolution on the Ukraine crisis, Iran’s representative to the UN said that the resolution submitted to the General Assembly lacks the element of neutrality and realistic mechanisms for resolving the issue through peaceful means…. He added, “The Islamic Republic is following the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine with deep concern.”

He stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran’s principled position is based on the need for a peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with international law and the need for full compliance by all parties with the supreme principles enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations and international law, including international humanitarian law. We emphasize that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries must be fully respected and the safety and security of all civilians must be guaranteed.

[Majid] Takht Ravanchi continued, “Finding a lasting and long-term solution to such crises requires addressing its roots. We note that the current complexity and fragile situation in Eastern Europe has been exacerbated by provocative actions by the United States and NATO. The security concerns of the Russian Federation must be taken into account.”

Takht Ravanchi said that the United Nations should always avoid double standards in dealing with issues related to international peace and security…. An example of this is the Security Council’s approach to the ongoing conflict in Yemen.

He continued, “We believe that the resolution presented to the General Assembly lacks the element of neutrality and realistic mechanisms for resolving the issue through peaceful means. In addition, not all members of the United Nations had the opportunity to participate in the drafting of this resolution.”

The Iranian ambassador to the United Nations continued: “It is necessary to emphasize that the General Assembly is not in a position to determine the existence of an aggressive act.” In addition to Article 39 of the Charter, UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 of 14 December 1974 delegated this to the Security Council.

The senior diplomat of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations stated, “Based on the above-mentioned reasons, the delegation of the Islamic Republic of Iran abstained from voting on the resolution contained in document.”

Image Information:

Image: Iran’s UN Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi, 2 March 2022
Source: Fars News Agency
https://media.farsnews.ir/Uploaded/Files/Images/1400/02/17/14000217000288_Test_PhotoN.jpg
Attribution:

Iran’s New Damavand Destroyer Set To Join Navy

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Iran’s previous Damavand destroyer sank after striking a breakwater at Bandar Anzali, 10 January 2018.

Iran’s previous Damavand destroyer sank after striking a breakwater at Bandar Anzali, 10 January 2018.

“The process of building naval equipment will accelerate.”

On 10 January 2018, Iran’s Damavand destroyer collided with a breakwater while docking at the Caspian port of Bandar Anzali.  While Iranian authorities initially denied the incident, local bloggers soon posted videos of the ship listing and sinking, reportedly killing at least three sailors.  In the excerpted article from the Iranian Defense Ministry’s official news source, Holy Defense News Agency, Shahram Irani, head of the Iranian Navy, announces that the Navy would soon officially launch a new destroyer to replace the Damavand.  That it has taken four years to build the new ship gives a sense of the speed of Iranian shipbuilding.  Iranian Mowj (Wave) class destroyers are equipped with anti-submarine torpedoes, an assortment of surface-to-surface missiles, surface-to-air missiles, and various naval guns and cannons.  Because the Damavand—named for Iran’s tallest mountain—operates in the landlocked Caspian Sea, its replacement needed to be built at Bandar Anzali.  Its mission is to show the flag and guard Iran’s Caspian infrastructure against Caspian littoral states—Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, all which are relatively friendly with Iran.  This suggests that the political and economic need to keep shipyards busy trump military needs when the Iranian Navy decides where to spend its money.  Given the fact that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps controls such shipbuilding, the construction and launch of a new destroyer for the uncontested Caspian Sea demonstrates how difficult meaningful economic reform in Iran will be.

Source:

“Anjam-e Testha-ye Nahaye Navshakan ‘Damavand’ (Performing Final Tests on the Damavand Destroyer),” Holy Defense News Agency (Iran’s Defense Ministry news outlet), 3 April 2022. https://defapress.ir/fa/news/511977

Admiral Shahram Irani, commander of the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy, in an interview with the defense correspondent of the Holy Defense News Agency, said with regard to the latest situation of the Damavand destroyer, “The Damavand destroyer will join the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy soon and it will be a special occasion.” He stated that the Damavand destroyer is undergoing final tests, and added, “In 2022, the process of building naval equipment will accelerate, with regard to both surface and subsurface technology.”

According to the Holy Defense News Agency, the Damavand destroyer is completely indigenous and the second warship in the Mowj [Wave] class. It is more advanced than the Jamaran [the first of the Mowj class] that joined the Northern [Caspian] fleet on 9 March 2015.

Image Information:

Image: Iran’s previous Damavand destroyer sank after striking a breakwater at Bandar Anzali, 10 January 2018.
Source: Young Journalist Club(a subsidiary of the state-controlled Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting). https://cdn.yjc.news/files/fa/news/1398/7/19/10699419_907.jpg

Algeria Caught Between Neutrality and Strategic Relations with Russia

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“… the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war are strongly present in these diplomatic moves, by virtue of Algeria’s strong strategic relationship with Russia and its stable relations with Western countries…”

Algeria has sought to remain neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but historical strategic relations with Russia and growing security concerns on its borders may draw it closer to Russia.  As noted in the excerpts from the Saudi-funded Independent Arabia and the influential Saudi daily al-Sharq al-Awsat, these relations were on display during a late March visit to Algiers by a high-level Russian military delegation, during which the two sides agreed to hold joint anti-terror military exercises in southern Algeria in November.  Algeria is a key buyer of advanced Russian weaponry and an attractive strategic partner for Russia in the current geopolitical climate due to its location on NATO’s underbelly and its abundant natural gas resources.  Russia can help Algeria with two of its vital concerns: securing its southern border, particularly with Mali, and militarily balancing Morocco.  Relations with Morocco have soured over the past year, and Morocco’s blossoming military partnership with Israel threatens to tilt the balance in its favor.  Although the Algerian military has recently turned to China for some advanced weaponry, Russia remains its main security partner and possibly the only country willing to help Algeria maintain a favorable military balance with Morocco.

On 4 April, the speaker of the People’s National Assembly, Algeria’s lower house of parliament, hosted the Russian ambassador and reaffirmed Algeria’s commitment to its deep strategic relationship with Russia, in comments that were reported by the country’s official news agency Algeria Press Service.  However, Algerian in-depth cooperation with Russia does not equate to enthusiastic support for Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.  Like other countries of the region, Algeria hopes to stay out of a Russia-NATO conflict.  Algeria has been explicit in endorsing a negotiated settlement to the conflict, and its foreign minister has been active in an “Arab Contact Group” that seeks to mediate between Russia and Ukraine.  Still, Algeria’s relations with Russia run deeper than those of many other Arab countries, particularly when it comes to defense cooperation.  Algeria joined Syria in the vote against expelling Russia from the UN Human Rights Commission, making them the only two Arab countries to do so.  Most other Arab countries either abstained or refused to vote.  Mali’s government, which is increasingly close to Russia and a strategically important partner of Algeria’s, also voted against the resolution. 

Source:

“روسيا تسبق بلينكن إلى ‘حلبة الجزائر’

(Russia beats Blinken to ‘the Algerian Arena’),” Independent Arabia (Saudi-funded news website), 27 March 2022. https://tinyurl.com/mr2czhan

The Algerian Ministry of Defense announced that the Chief of Staff of the Army, Said Chengriha and other high-ranking officers met with members of a Russian delegation at the conclusion of their visit to Algeria. The Russian delegation was led by the Director of the Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation of Russia, Dmitry Shuvaev, and also included the Russian ambassador to Algeria. The meeting came at the end of the Russian delegation’s visit, from March 23 to 25, to attend the regular meeting of the Algerian-Russian Intergovernmental Committee in charge of military and technical cooperation…

Said Hadef, a researcher in Maghreb affairs, told The Independent… “It is difficult to predict what Russia was expecting from its allies, but it seems that the visit of the director of the Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation came under the weight of one month of war for Russia, and the consequent sanctions and Moscow’s fear of losing its allies.” He noted that the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war are strongly present in these diplomatic moves, by virtue of Algeria’s strong strategic relationship with Russia and its stable relations with Western countries.  This is making it move cautiously, as it seeks to preserve its positions and its allies, and at the same time avoids “angering” the West, led by Washington.

Source:

“مناورات عسكرية جزائرية ـ روسية تحاكي محاربة الإرهاب 

(Algeria-Russia anti-terror military maneuvers),” al-Sharq al-Awsat (influential Saudi daily), 6 April 2022. https://tinyurl.com/3k8r9fuc

Yesterday, the Russian TASS news agency quoted the Russian Southern Military District as saying that joint anti-terror exercises of the Russian and Algerian ground forces will take place next November in Algeria. The upcoming maneuvers were discussed, according to the press office of the Southern Military District in the Russian city of Vladikavkaz, during the “first planning conference to prepare for joint Russian-Algerian ground forces anti-terror maneuvers.” The same source also announced that the military exercises will take place at a base located in the Adrar Governorate, in the far south of Algeria. According to the Russian Agency, during the conference, “the exercise’s scenario and the organization of logistics, including accommodation procedures, were coordinated.” It added that the maneuvers “will consist of tactical moves to search, detect and destroy illegal armed groups. On the Russian side, about 80 soldiers from the Southern Military District are scheduled to participate in the exercises.”

Source:

“رئيس المجلس الشعبي الوطني يستقبل السفير الروسي لدى الجزائر

(People’s National Assembly Speaker welcomes the Russian ambassador to Algeria),” Algeria Press Service (official Algerian news service), 4 April 2022. https://www.aps.dz/ar/algerie/124089-2022-04-04-14-29-34

On Monday, the Speaker of the People’s National Assembly, Mr. Ibrahim Bougali, received the Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Algeria, Mr. Igor Belyaev, in a meeting centered on the “outstanding bilateral relations” that unite the two countries, according to a statement from the parliament.… In addition, Mr. Bougali affirmed “Algeria’s commitment to its in-depth strategic partnership with Russia” and called for “exploiting all available possibilities to diversify the areas of cooperation.”

Iran Digs into Central Syria, Filling Vacuum Left by Russia

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“…the spread of pro-Iranian militias and the Fourth Division coincided with the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the beginning of the withdrawal of Russian forces from some military sites in eastern Homs…”

Iran and its allies are fortifying their positions in the central Syrian desert.  The accompanying article from the influential Saudi daily al-Sharq al-Awsat delves into the recent repositioning of Iranian proxies and allies in central Syria.  The article cites an early 2022 deal between the Syrian military’s 4th Division and Iran, in which they agreed to establish nearly a dozen bases throughout central Syria.  These moves coincided with Russia turning its focus to Ukraine and Iran’s recent escalation with Israel, which likely added urgency to Iranian efforts to strengthen its military position in Syria.  To that end, Iran and its allies have focused on supplying and fortifying weapons depots across central Syria.  According to the report from al-Sharq al-Awsat, Iran has provided its Syrian proxies and allies with vehicles, communications devices, and anti-tank missiles.  Russia has also given Iran and its allies control of the massive weapons depot in Mheen, in the Homs desert.  Iran recently established a new militia in Syria, drawing from its various local proxy forces, in order to guard all these weapons depots.  Pro-Iranian forces in central Syria are likely to employ unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to secure their positions.  Local outlets have reported on recent drone transfers, and in late March, Iranian forces held a UAV training session for some of their Syrian proxies.  In early April, the Iranian Arabic-language news channel al-Alam aired footage showing Iran’s proxy forces in Iraq employing Iranian Shahed-129 drones against ISIS targets, suggesting Iranian proxies in Syria would be similarly capable.

Source:

“إيران توسع انتشار ميليشياتها وسلاحها في سوريا 

(Iran expands the reach of its militias and weapons in Syria),” al-Sharq al-Awsat (influential Saudi daily), 7 April 2022. https://tinyurl.com/yp83a5pu


In a new Iranian military tactic aimed at extending Iran’s influence over the largest area of ​​Syrian territory, the Revolutionary Guards have recently strengthened… their presence in about 120 sites and military headquarters in the eastern countryside of Homs, Hama desert, Raqqa desert, and Deir ez-Zor and Aleppo governorates.  They have reinforced these sites with about 4,500 members of the militias loyal to them, and a number of missile launchers, heavy weapons, drones and communications devices. They recently took control of the strategic Mheen warehouses east of Homs, after expanding their influence in the Nairab military airport in Aleppo governorate, at the expense of the Russian and regime forces. They have also established training camps for Syrian volunteers to join militias loyal to Iran.

In the desert of Homs and eastern Hama, sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that “an agreement was reached at the beginning of 2022. Military leaders in the Fourth Division, led by Maher al-Assad, brother of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, established about 11 headquarters, headed by officers and military experts from both sides, in the areas of Hasya, Palmyra, Mahin, Al-Qaryatayn, Al-Sukhnah, Al-Kum and Al-Taybeh, east of Homs, and the Salamiyah, Al-Saan, Athria and Sheikh Hilal areas, east of Hama.

… “the spread of pro-Iranian militias and the Fourth Division coincided with the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the beginning of the withdrawal of Russian forces from some military sites in eastern Homs. This includes their recent withdrawal from the Mheen warehouses, which were handed over to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Lebanese Hezbollah”…

On March 27, Iran moved 10 Iranian Muhajir drones from its warehouses in the city of Palmyra, east of Homs, to a camp for drones that was recently established in the al-Tabani area, southwest of Deir ez-Zor. There, they established a UAV training project, imposing a security cordon around the area.

… Syrian activists said that “the IRGC recently formed a new militia called Fajr al-Islam. It is led by Iranian officers and made up of elite elements from the Afghan Fatimiyoun Brigade, the Iraqi Harakat al-Nujaba, and Lebanese Hezbollah, in addition to groups of Alawites loyal to Iran and young Syrian Shiites.” Its mission is to guard Iranian military depots in Hama, Homs, Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor, Palmyra, and Sukhnah, east of Homs

Source:

“بالفيديو..مسيرة  شاهد ١٢٩ تستهدف اوكار الدواعش في العراق

(Video… Shahed-129 drone targets ISIS hideouts in Iraq),” al-Alama (Iranian Arabic-language news channel), 9 April 2022. https://tinyurl.com/376pba2u

Video footage emerged showing members of the Popular Mobilization Forces using the Iranian Shahed-129 drone to target the hideouts of ISIS terrorist gangs in Iraq.

Sanctions Threaten Russia’s Arctic Energy Projects

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“Moscow’s war against Ukraine is having a large toll on one of the most remote parts of the planet. The region that over the past years has been a top priority for the Russian government is now about to face a serious economic setback.  Several of the new oil and gas projects, mines and infrastructure initiatives that until recently have been under development might now come to a grinding halt.”

According to the accompanying article from Norwegian independent news outlet The Barents Observer, the West’s economic measures against Russia will slow or stop most major Russian Arctic development projects.  Russia’s past response to Western sanctions has been to become more self-reliant, which requires financial outlays and time.  According to the article, Russia will find it difficult to acquire the partnerships and financing necessary to become self-reliant and continue its current pace of Arctic development.  Thus, Russian ambitions in the Arctic are certain to suffer in addition to all the other consequences Russia will face because of Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

Source:

Atle Staalesen, “Big Collapse looms Over Russian Arctic Policy,” The Barents Observer (Norwegian independent news source), 30 March 2022.  https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2022/03/big-collapse-looms-over-russian-arctic-policy

Moscow’s war against Ukraine is having a large toll on one of the most remote parts of the planet.  The region that over the past years has been a top priority for the Russian government is now about to face a serious economic setback.  Several of the new oil and gas projects, mines and infrastructure initiatives that until recently have been under development might now come to a grinding halt.

Natural Gas Company Novatek confirmed that it will stop the development of its liquefied natural gas projects in the region.  It will only complete the first train of the Arctic LNG 2.  [An LNG train is a liquefied natural gas plants liquefaction and purification facility…].  According to original plans, the project’s first train is to come into production in 2023 and deliver 6.6 million tons of LNG to the market.  The project train number two and three that were to be ready in 2024 and 2025 respectively will be postponed.  The announcement comes after French project partner Total made clear that it is halting all new investmentsin Russia.  Other international oil and gas companies have made similar announcements.  Among them are Baker Hughes, Halliburton and Schlumberger.

Novatek is fully dependent on Western technology to follow up its major Arctic LNG projects. Both the Yamal LNG and the Arctic LNG were built with foreign equipment provided by companies such as Linde, Siemens and Baker Hughes.  Ship traffic data indicate that there is still a high level of activity around the Arctic LNG 2 project port of Utrenneye.  This week, two nuclear-powered icebreakers escorted cargo vessels to site….

The new western sanctions against Russia will affect also several other industrial projects.  State oil company Rosneft is in the process of developing what is due to become the biggest oil project ever in the Arctic, and is dependent on western technology to build both infrastructure and ice-class tankers.   Also the investment basis of the project is now also increasing unclear as project partner Trafigura Group says that it is “reviewing its shareholding in Vostok Oil LLC.”

The Vostok Oil includes the building of 13 gas and oil fields in the remote Taymyr tundra and the annual production of more than 100 million tons by 2030.

On the Russian Arctic agenda is also the building of several mines, among them the Syradasaysky coal project in Taymyr.  This project is dependent on western tech, at least for the building of ice-class bulk carriers that can export the coal.

Ship traffic data indicate that there is still a high level of activity around the project seaport of Yenisei, despite the difficult ice conditions in the area.

As industrial projects come to a halt, Russia will not be able to meet its ambitious plans for Arctic shipping.  The objective set by President Putin in 2018 is the annual shipments of at least 80 million tons of goods on the Northern Sea Route by 2024.

The country’s Minister of the Far East and Arctic Aleksei Chekunkov during a visit to Murmansk in early March told local media that the objectives remain unchanged.  But he appears to shut his eyes for the ongoing developments that is about to fully isolate Russia in international relations and trade.

It is now increasingly unclear also whether Russia will be able to meet its plan on nuclear icebreaker construction.  The country intends to build a fleet of up to six LK-60 icebreakers in the course of the decade, as well as the super-powerful Lider.  But the Baltic and Zvezda shipyards will hardly be able to complete construction without western technology.

The Russian government in 2018 presented a 5-year plan for Arctic developments that included investment up to 5.5 trillion rubles by year 2024 and 13.5 trillion rubles by 2050.  That document now appears like nothing but a piece of paper.

In addition to the standstill in its grand industrial projects, Russia is blocked in international bodies of regional cooperation.  Russia expected dividends from its two-year presidency in the Arctic Council and planned as many as a 88 various events.The Ukraine fighting affects the plans and projections and the subsequent halt in international Arctic cooperation.  On March 4, the Arctic Council announced that it had decided to “pause all official meetings of the Council and its subsidiary bodies until further notice.”  The Barents Council followed with the same decision.

Sanctions Likely To Weaken Russian Arms Flow to Africa

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Ethiopian soldier holding an AK-47.

Ethiopian soldier holding an AK-47.

“The wide-ranging sanctions could have serious implications for Africa. Importantly, they could affect the continent’s ability to procure and maintain military hardware from Russia.”

Economic sanctions on Russia will likely jeopardize African countries’s ability to purchase new weapons and maintain existing stockpiles, according to the excerpted article from South African news source The Conversation Africa.  As the article points out, African countries import 49 percent of its military hardware from Russia, everything from battleships and fighter jets to handguns and rifles. 

The article notes five ways the sanctions on Russia are likely to impact African defense contractors and/or militaries.  First, Russia cannot deliver military hardware that is already on order.  Second, African militaries will struggle to maintain their vast inventories of Russian weapons because the supply of spare parts is now in jeopardy.  Third, various contractual obligations between Russian arms suppliers and African nations will not be met, possibly leaving some difficult issues for courts to decide.  Fourth, arms merchants from numerous countries will try to fill the void created by Russia’s absence.  However, since so much of Africa’s weaponry is Russian made, it will not be easy for many African countries to replace their Russian weapons with Western armaments.  Fifth and finally, the already present black market in arms transfers is likely to grow as Russia and possibly some African nations look to skirt the sanctions.

The absence of Russian weapons could also prove to be an incentive for African defense industries to increase the quantity of their output as well as try to manufacture larger and more complex weapons platforms.  As the article points out, Russia might even transfer some of its defense contracts to countries such as Nigeria and South Africa, which already have a enough industrial capacity to manufacture arms.

Source:

Moses B. Khanyile, “Sanctions against Russia will affect arms sales to Africa: the risks and opportunities,” The Conversation Africa (South African independent news source), 27 March 2022. https://theconversation.com/sanctions-against-russia-will-affect-arms-sales-to-africa-the-risks-and-opportunities-180038

 The wide-ranging sanctions could have serious implications for Africa. Importantly, they could affect the continent’s ability to procure and maintain military hardware from Russia.

The biggest buyers of armaments from Russia – and most long-standing importers – are Algeria, Angola, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco and Uganda.

In the past Russia has been astute in filling the void left by western countries. It did this in 2013 when the US cut off military aid and arms to Egypt after the military staged a coup. Suppliers such as Russia and France were happy to fill the gap.

The comprehensive sanctions imposed on Russia are likely to last beyond the current conflict. This implies that what may be regarded as ‘interim measures’ to fill a temporary void may end up being a long-lasting solution to Africa’s desire to produce its own military hardware for its own use, and also to reduce reliance on external suppliers.

African countries should therefore make a concerted effort to look towards defence companies on the continent for support. The African Union and South Africa, in particular, given its BRICS link, should play a central role in driving such a campaign.

Image Information:

Image: Ethiopian soldier holding an AK-47.
Source: U.S. government via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Afrimil-ethiopiansoldier.jpg
Attribution: Public Domain

Russian Culture Ministry Proposes Possible Framework for New State Ideology

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“… In general, the document, with a certain interpretation, limits the rights and freedoms of a person prescribed in the Constitution, dictating both the way of thinking and the way of life.”

Even though the Russian constitution states that “no ideology may be established as state or obligatory,” the current Kremlin leadership continues to advance the parameters of a possible official state ideology.  The first excerpt from Russia’s official news agency, TASS, describes how the Ministry of Culture has submitted for public discussion the Fundamentals of State Policy for the Preservation and Strengthening of Traditional Russian Spiritual and Moral Values.  The article reports this proposed draft policy document “refers to a number of traditional values ​​(e.g., life, dignity, human rights and freedoms, patriotism, citizenship, service to the Fatherland…, high moral ideals, a strong family, creative work, the priority of the spiritual over the material…),” designed to strengthen Russia.  Besides listing these aspirational values, the document also identifies the dangers facing modern Russia, calling out “threats to traditional values [to include]… extremist and terrorist organizations, the actions of the United States and its allies, transnational corporations, and foreign non-profit organizations.”

The second excerpt from an editorial in the mostly independent Nezavisimaya Gazeta questions the value of such a document, suggesting that it “is reminiscent of the ideological practices of the times of the USSR.”  As this article points out, just as in Soviet times, the new document makes “it necessary for citizens to see an ideological enemy everywhere and oppose personal interests to state interests.”  The article concludes by asserting that this proposed policy “limits the rights and freedoms of a person prescribed in the Constitution, dictating both the way of thinking and the way of life.”  While this proposed document is designed to guide those involved with cultural pursuits, its impact may ultimately be felt throughout Russian society should the Kremlin approve it.

Source:

“Основы госполитики по сохранению традиционных ценностей обсудят с экспертами (Fundamentals of state policy for the preservation of traditional values ​​will be discussed with experts),” TASS (official news agency), 25 January 2022. https://tass.ru/kultura/13522119

The published version of the Fundamentals of State Policy for the Preservation and Strengthening of Traditional Russian Spiritual and Moral Values ​​is not final, the proposals will be discussed at the platforms of the upper and lower houses of parliament, in the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation and in other instances…. 

In the current version, the document, posted on the federal portal of draft regulatory legal acts, refers to the number of traditional values ​​“life, dignity, human rights and freedoms, patriotism, citizenship, service to the Fatherland and responsibility for its destiny, high moral ideals, a strong family, creative work, the priority of the spiritual over the material, humanism, mercy, justice, collectivism, mutual assistance and mutual respect, historical memory and the continuity of generations, the unity of the peoples of Russia.” Threats to traditional values, according to the authors of the project, “bears the activities of extremist and terrorist organizations, the actions of the United States and its allies, transnational corporations, foreign non-profit organizations….”

Source: “Минкультуры возвращает россиян во времена СССР (The Ministry of Culture returns Russians to Soviet times),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (mostly independent Russian media outlet), 27 January 2022. https://www.ng.ru/editorial/2022-01-27/2_8357_editorial.html

Is it necessary for citizens to see an ideological enemy everywhere and oppose personal interests to state interests?

A draft presidential decree “Fundamentals of State Policy for the Preservation and Strengthening of Traditional Russian Spiritual and Moral Values” developed by the Ministry of Culture has been submitted for public discussion. The document is intended to clarify the concept of traditional values ​​within the framework of the National Security Strategy approved by the President….

… The threat to these values, according to the authors of the document, is “the activities of extremist and terrorist organizations, the actions of the United States and its allies, transnational corporations, foreign non-profit organizations.” The document notes “the ideological and psychological impact on the citizens of Russia”, and this destructive ideology includes “the cult of selfishness, permissiveness, immorality, the denial of the ideals of patriotism, service to the Fatherland, procreation, creative labor, Russia’s positive contribution to world history and culture…”

… All this is reminiscent of the ideological practices of the times of the USSR. Then the citizens were also designated the image of the enemy and demanded that they meet “high criteria….”  The personal is opposed to the public: the primary are the needs of the state (serving the Fatherland), while the private (the cult of selfishness) are secondary.… In general, the document, with a certain interpretation, limits the rights and freedoms of a person prescribed in the Constitution, dictating both the way of thinking and the way of life.

Kremlin Using Education Policy To Foster Approval of Its “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine

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“The children of the soldiers who died in the special operation in Ukraine will be able to study free of charge at the Russian State Social University (RGSU).” 

Alongside its extensive media arsenal to maintain public support for the “special military operation” in Ukraine, the Kremlin has also mobilized its educational system.  As the first excerpt from the Moscow regional source M24 points out, children of Russian service personnel who have died fighting in this operation “will be able to study free of charge at the Russian State Social University (RGSU).”  The article posits that this education initiative might expand to include the “country’s leading universities, [which] will support our initiative and accept educational certificates from the RGSU as an exchange basis for free education.”  Meanwhile, the Ministry of Education (MoE) continues to develop mandatory courses for school-aged children to ensure that they understand the Kremlin’s narrative surrounding this operation.  In addition to grasping the Kremlin’s historical justification (see: “Teaching Russian School Children about Ukraine,” OE Watch, April 2022), the brief excerpt from the pro-business site Kommersant describes how the MoE has now developed school lessons covering both Western sanctions and import substitution.  The article stresses that “the teacher should show Russia’s ability to overcome the negative consequences of Western countries’ sanctions pressure on the economic sphere of our society.” According to the article, “teachers should tell children about the benefits of import substitution,” and how this program will strengthen the Russian economy.  The article concludes by citing economic experts asked to gauge the effectiveness of such lessons.  One skeptical expert commented, “in the summer, or certainly in the fall, the children will come home and see for themselves that the family has no money, that there is no way to buy any goods.”

Source:

“Дети погибших в спецоперации на Украине военных получат бесплатное образование в РГСУ (Children of soldiers who died in a special operation in Ukraine will receive free education at the RGSU),” M24.ru (Moscow based regional news outlet), 26 March 2022. https://www.m24.ru/news/obrazovanie/26032022/444852

The children of the soldiers who died in the special operation in Ukraine will be able to study free of charge at the Russian State Social University (RGSU). This was reported on the official website of the university….

…The university expressed the hope that other Russian universities would also support the initiative, since the children of the military who died during the special operation may have different educational plans, including specialties that the RGSU does not teach.

“In such cases, we expect that other Russian state educational institutions chosen by them, including the country’s leading universities, will support our initiative and accept educational certificates from the RGSU as an exchange basis for free education,” the Russian State Social University concluded.

Source: Anna Vasilyeva, Maria Starikova, Olga Nikitina; Vlad Nikiforov, Alexander Dremlyugin,“Школам завезли антисанкционки (Anti-sanctions brought to schools),” Kommersant (Russian pro-business news media), 5 April 2022. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5293728

As it became known to Kommersant, Russian schools received new recommendations on conducting special lessons against the backdrop of a “special military operation” in Ukraine. This time, teachers should organize classes for students in grades 5–9 and 10–11 on the topic “Anti-Russian sanctions and their impact on the domestic economy.” In the training manual, this “influence” is presented as rather positive – schoolchildren will be told about the growth in the share of Russian products in several areas, and then they will be asked to assess which countries will suffer large economic losses from sanctions…. 

…As stated in the training manual, the teacher should “show Russia’s ability to overcome the negative consequences of Western countries’ sanctions pressure on the economic sphere of our society, give an idea of ​​the main directions of the anti-sanctions policy in the Russian Federation.” Teachers should tell children about the benefits of import substitution….

“The lesson materials invite schoolchildren to familiarize themselves with the measures taken by the president and the government to counter sanctions from unfriendly countries,” the Ministry of Education told Kommersant….

…Kommersant asked economists to comment on the manual. Natalya Zubarevich, a specialist in the field of socio-economic development of the regions, refused to study it. “Why should I read these manuals? And so it is clear that we will lose the most advanced technological industries,” she told Kommersant. “In the summer, or certainly in the fall, the children will come home and see for themselves that the family has no money, that there is no way to buy any goods.”

More Wonder Weapons on Russia’s Drawing Board

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Peresvet Military Laser System.

Peresvet Military Laser System.

“The State Weapons Program (SWP) will focus on the creation of non-traditional types of weapons, including directed energy weapons, kinetic weapons, as well as artificial intelligence control systems and robotic systems.”

Despite military setbacks in Ukraine, Russia’s military industry (VPK) remains dedicated to developing military prowess, according to the excerpted article from the somewhat independent Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obezreniye.  Over the past decade, the Kremlin has focused on military modernization and improved combat capabilities, frequently demonstrating and asserting that the Russian armed forces are now a formidable power.  Perceived military superiority was likely a key factor underpinning the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine in late February 2022.  After the past couple months, however, maintaining this façade of military dominance has become more challenging.  

The article describes a recent meeting between President Putin and Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov, during which they discussed the upcoming State Weapons Program.  According to the article, Russia’s military industry remains on the cusp of “the creation of non-traditional types of weapons, including directed energy weapons, kinetic weapons, as well as artificial intelligence control systems and robotic systems.”  While the article omits the possible effects of Western economic sanctions on Russia’s military industry, it does provide examples of new weapons allowing Russia “to deliver massive strikes against enemy [Ukraine] infrastructure.”  The article also notes that “in December 2019, the world’s first really working combat laser system ‘Peresvet’ was put on combat duty,” but admits that there are questions surrounding its capabilities.  The article concludes by referring to developments in “robotics and artificial intelligence systems,” claiming that “large-scale work is underway in Russia to create ‘soulless’ combat units.”

Source:

“Разящая кинетика, направленное действие, искусственный интеллект (Breaking kinetics, directed action, artificial intelligence),” Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obezreniye (NVO-Independent Military Observer; somewhat independent), 7 April 2022. https://nvo.ng.ru/nvoweek/2022-04-07/2_1184_week.html

Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov promised the emergence of non-traditional weapons in Russia. The State Weapons Program (SWP) will focus on the creation of non-traditional types of weapons, including directed energy weapons, kinetic weapons, as well as artificial intelligence control systems and robotic systems. As reported on the Kremlin website, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov spoke about this at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. “The work on preparing the initial data for the next SAP has been completed, by mid-2023 it will be formed and submitted for approval.

…During the special operation in Ukraine, we are already talking about the effectiveness of using high-precision weapons. These are ship-based cruise missiles ‘Caliber,’ aviation Kh-555, Kh-101 and Dagger, which allow the country to deliver massive strikes against enemy infrastructure….

…However, Yuri Borisov speaks of a completely different level of weapons…. Another non-traditional direction could be laser weapons. In December 2019, the world’s first really working combat laser system ‘Peresvet’ was put on combat duty. There is still no exact understanding of whether it ‘burns or dazzles’ the optical instruments of air objects. But it is already obvious: the country is actively working on the development of this type of weapon….

Robotics and artificial intelligence systems are also a priority. If you look at the exposition of the exhibition-forum ‘Army’ in Kubinka near Moscow, it becomes obvious that large-scale work is underway in Russia to create ‘soulless’ combat units.

Image Information:

Image: Peresvet Military Laser System
Source: mil.ru
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0

Russian Orthodox Church Blesses “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine

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Interior of Main Military Cathedral in Russia.

Interior of Main Military Cathedral in Russia.

“The Patriarch said that these days the historical fate of the Russian people is being decided….”

In early April, Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) publicly expressed strong support for the Kremlin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.  During a service atthe main military temple in Kubinka, “the head of the Russian Orthodox Church called on the military to be faithful to the oath, to defend their fatherland at all costs,” according to the excerpt from the somewhat independent source Nezavisimaya Gazeta.  The Patriarch echoed the Kremlin’s narrative regarding which country is the chief enemy today, proclaiming that “most countries of the world are under the colossal influence of one force, which today, unfortunately, has become the opposing force of our people.”  He concluded his sermon by stressing that “we must be very strong.  When I say ‘we,’ I mean primarily the Armed Forces… All our people today should… understand that a special time has come, on which the historical fate of our people may depend.”

When the ROC consecrated the main military cathedral two years ago, many observers remarked that the church was instilling a religious component into the Kremlin’s patriotic ideology (see “Russian Religious Patriotism,” OE Watch, July 2020).  The Kremlin leadership, along with a pliant ROC, understand that Russian soldiers may be reluctant to defend a corrupt political system, but they might be willing to fight and die for their religion.

Source:

Andrei Melnikov, “Патриарх Кирилл возложил на армию ответственность за судьбу русского народа (Patriarch Kirill made the army responsible for the fate of the Russian people),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (somewhat independent Russian news source), 3 April 2022. https://www.ng.ru/faith/2022-04-03/2_8407_relig.html

Patriarch Kirill celebrated the Sunday liturgy and delivered a sermon in the main church of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The head of the Russian Orthodox Church called on the military to be faithful to the oath, to defend their fatherland at all costs. The Patriarch said that these days the historical fate of the Russian people is being decided….

…His sermon was sustained in the spirit of previous speeches on the situation in Ukraine. According to the patriarch, some powerful forces are playing off the fraternal peoples, and between Russia and the West there is, as he used to call it, a “metaphysical war.” Moreover, this time the mobilization call sounded even more clearly.

“Serving in the Armed Forces is a real feat,” said the head of the Russian Orthodox Church.  It requires readiness from everyone who has taken the oath to defend their homeland, not sparing their lives. Therefore, today our special prayer is for the Armed Forces, for our soldiers, with whom the hope for security, for freedom, for the true independence of our country is associated. “Most of the countries of the world are under the colossal influence of one force, which today, unfortunately, has become the opposing force of our people,” he explained. “Because there is great strength, and we must be very strong. When I say ‘we’, I mean the Armed Forces in the first place. But not only. All our people today should, as it were, wake up, start up, understand that a special time has come, on which the historical fate of our people may depend.”

Image Information:

Image: Interior of Main Military Cathedral in Russia.
Source: Sergey Sebelev via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Patriot_Military_Temple_Risen_Christ.jpg 
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl