African Leaders Take Cautious Approach to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Putin with Faustin Archange Touadera, President of the Central African Republic, whose nation has used Russia’s Wagner Group on several occasions, including to prevent an overthrow of the government.

Putin with Faustin Archange Touadera, President of the Central African Republic, whose nation has used Russia’s Wagner Group on several occasions, including to prevent an overthrow of the government.


“African countries are treading carefully in the Russia-Ukraine war to protect their national interests even as they defend the rights of Africans trapped in war zones.”


Many African leaders are choosing their words carefully when discussing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  As the accompanying excerpted article from the East African explains, these leaders’ cautious approach is based on the close relationships their countries have with Russia.  This is especially evident in the area of arms sales.  Many African nations purchase their military hardware from Russian arms dealers.  For example, Ethiopia’s entire fleet of jetfighters, 20 Sukhoi-27s and nine Mig-23s, are from Russia.  Russia supplies three quarters of Uganda’s combat helicopters.  Across Africa it is not just aircraft, but rather a wide range of military materiel, including small arms such as the ubiquitous AK-47.

As the article explains, Russia has also fostered military alliances with Mali, the Sudan, Mozambique and other countries facing insurgencies or political instability, which has tempered still more African leaders’ reactions to the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The Wagner Group, a Kremlin-linked paramilitary force, helped quash an attempt to overthrow the government in the Central African Republic.  The appreciation for these Russian interventions, combined with a sense among many Africans that their nations should remain neutral with regard to European problems, contributes to the lack of enthusiasm some African leaders have for denouncing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Reports of African students fleeing Ukraine only to be subjected to extreme racism in Europe may have exacerbated these concerns.

Some African leaders are not only refusing to condemn Russia but are actually praising it.  The most prominent example of such behavior comes from LTG Kainerugaba, Commander of Ugandan Land Forces, who is also President Musevini’s son.  While Uganda abstained from a UN vote condemning Russian aggression, citing the African country’s nonaligned status, Kainerugaba claimed Putin was right and that a majority of non-whites support Russia.  Even Senegal, which has a long history of receiving military assistance from the West, abstained from the UN vote to condemn Russian aggression.


Source: Aggrey Mutambo, “National interests prevail as African leaders tread carefully on Ukraine crisis,” The East African (African-based media company), 6 March 2022. https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/national-interests-african-leaders-careful-ukraine-crisis-3738398

African countries are treading carefully in the Russia-Ukraine war to protect their national interests even as they defend the rights of Africans trapped in war zones.

Senegalese President Macky Sall, chair of the African Union and the African Union Commission chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat said they were “particularly disturbed” by reports that some Africans had been turned away at European borders while trying to leave the war-wracked country.

Save for Kenya, Eastern African states have stayed away from vigorously commenting on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the racism in its wake has angered Africans.

The United Nations, which operates a huge fleet of Russian fixed-wing and helicopter transports, will not be spared the sanctions. Also, hard-hit will be a helicopter overhaul and maintenance repair facility that Uganda jointly owns with Russia’s Pro-heli International Services, that was launched by President Museveni in late January. The facility was among others targeting the UN missions in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan’s Darfur region, in which a substantial number of UN transport helicopters operate.

“Outside of the Central African Republic, which openly sympathises with Moscow, other countries have largely chosen a middle plan in this conflict, even as they share (Kenya’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Dr Martin) Kimani’s sentiments on the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. They are, however, united on the plight of Africans in Ukraine,” he said.


Image Information:

Image: Putin with Faustin Archange Touadera, President of the Central African Republic, whose nation has used Russia’s Wagner Group on several occasions, including to prevent an overthrow of the government.
Source: Mikhail Metzel/Kremlin Pool/Wikimedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vladimir_Putin_%26_Faustin_Touadera_-_2019.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Some Latin American Countries Responsive to Russian Entreaties To Remain Silent on Ukraine War

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.


“Russia said in December that escalating tensions over Ukraine could lead to a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis, when the world teetered on the brink of nuclear war.”


Many countries in Latin America opted to say little about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine because of their reticence to ruffle their relationships with Russia.  This relative silence is the result of persistent Russian attempts to cultivate influence with anti-Western Latin American leaders in the United States’ backyard as a way to counterbalance Western actions in what the Kremlin considers its sphere of influence.  Center-left Argentine news outlet Infobae reports that Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov visited the region and met with Russia’s most important allies in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba.  Borisov promised closer relations and greater “strategic depth” to Russia’s security cooperation.  In turn, the regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba have parroted Russian talking points about NATO and sanctions.  Further, Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro and Argentina’s president Alberto Fernández both visited Putin in Moscow shortly before the war, according to Spain’s politically left-leaning main daily El País.  Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov recently stated that Russia had the ability to deploy forces and equipment to Latin America through its security and cooperation agreements.  Russia’s pattern of outreach to Latin America is not new since its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022: similar diplomatic and military visits presaged Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 (then President Dmitri Medvedev) and its invasion of Crimea in 2014 (Putin himself).


Source:

“Rusia continúa estrechando lazos con las dictaduras latinoamericanas (Russia continues to strengthen ties with Latin American dictatorships),” Infobae (Argentine news outlet generally seen as center-left politically), 19 February 2022.  https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2022/02/19/rusia-continua-estrechando-lazos-con-las-dictaduras-latinoamericanas-el-viceprimer-ministro-de-putin-visito-cuba/ 

Borisov arrived on the island after visiting Nicaragua and Venezuela, Russia’s key allies in Latin America, and said Russia would also deepen bilateral ties with the two countries…Russia said in December that escalating tensions over Ukraine could lead to a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis, when the world teetered on the brink of nuclear war…Cuban dictator Miguel Díaz-Canel discussed coordinating a ‘strategic partnership’ with Putin in January, as tensions began to rise in Ukraine.

Source: “Ucrania, una guerra incómoda para Brasil y Argentina (Ukraine, an uncomfortable war for Brazil and Argentina),” El País (Spain’s main daily generally considered politically-left), 1 March 2022.  https://elpais.com/internacional/2022-03-02/ucrania-una-guerra-incomoda-para-brasil-y-argentina.html 

Bolsonaro’s Brazil and Fernández’s Argentina have been trying to remain neutral since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.  Only eight days had passed after the Brazilian president was received in Moscow by Vladimir Putin and twenty since a similar visit by the Argentine.  Both Latin American presidents then highlighted the good relations they maintain with the Kremlin.  But the war has turned everything upside down.  The diplomatic tension leaves little room for the grays, and both Bolsonaro and Fernández, located at the ideological poles, face domestic problems due to their international positioning.


Image Information:

Image caption:  Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.
Source:  Kremlin.ru via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vladimir_Putin_%26_Nicol%C3%A1s_Maduro_in_Tehran,_24_November_2015.jpg
Attribution:  CC BY 4.0

CSTO Members Respond to Potential Involvement in Ukraine

Maulen Ashimbayev.

Maulen Ashimbayev.


“The key change is the concept of a “coordinating state”: it must take over leadership of a peacekeeping operation if one is carried out.”


In early January 2022, member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) demonstrated their willingness to carry out a joint peacekeeping operation when the organization deployed units from the Collective Operational Reaction Force to Kazakhstan.  On 3 March 2022, President Vladimir Putin submitted a protocol to Russia’s State Duma to amend the CSTO’s agreement of peacekeeping activities, causing speculation that the CSTO would deploy peacekeepers to Ukraine.  The accompanying excerpted articles provide more context to the possibility of a CSTO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, suggesting that CSTO is not likely get involved.

The accompanying excerpted article from semi-independent Russian daily Kommersant reports on Putin’s submission of the protocol to amend the CSTO’s peacekeeping activities.  The article mentions that the change involves having a “coordinating state” to take “leadership of a peacekeeping operation if one is carried out.”  CSTO officials stated that the “change is not connected to the events in neighboring Ukraine,” but is meant to integrate a CSTO peacekeeping force into the UN and deploy it outside the organization’s area of responsibility.  In the past, the Russian government has tried and failed to obtain an official mandate from the UN to have its peacekeeping forces in the post-Soviet space.  The article from Kazakhstan government-run news agency Kazinform reports on a statement from Maulen Ashimbayev, the Chair of the Senate of Kazakhstan, in response to the possibility of Kazakh peacekeepers deploying to Ukraine.  Ashimbayev states, “in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations and in accordance with other documents, Kazakhstan can send our peacekeepers outside the CSTO countries only in accordance with a UN mandate.”  This statement came out the day of Russia’s invasion and prior to any speculation that came with Putin’s proposed change to the amendment. 

The article from the Armenian state news agency Armen Press reports on a statement from Vahagn Aleksanyan, a member of Armenia’s National Assembly, in response to Armenia’s obligations to the CSTO.  He notes, “the CSTO mechanisms are triggered in the event of an attack on one of the CSTO member states.”  In addition, he does not believe the conflict will spread to Russia, which would initiate a response of the CSTO’s article on collective defense.  He does not bring up a peacekeeping operation, but his comments still represent how another CSTO member is responding to potentially getting involved in the war in Ukraine.  If the statements from Kazakh and Armenian officials are any indication, the CSTO is not likely get involved in Ukraine.


Source:

Vladimir Solovyev, “Украина ни при чем (Ukraine has nothing to do with it),” Kommersant (semi-independent Russian daily newspaper), 4 March 2022.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5240328

…Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted a protocol on amending the “Agreement on the CSTO peacekeeping activities” to the State Duma for ratification. The key change is the concept of a “coordinating state”: it must take over leadership of a peacekeeping operation if one is carried out…The CSTO said the adoption of the change is not connected to the events in neighboring Ukraine…

…Changes to the “Agreement on peacekeeping activities” were adopted on September 16, 2021 at the CSTO Collective Security Council session in Dushanbe. They are necessary in order for the organization to be able to integrate its peacekeeping potential into the UN peacekeeping mechanism, so that it would be possible to use CSTO peacekeeping outside the organization’s area of ​​responsibility…

Source: Serik Sabekov, “Маулен Ашимбаев ответил на вопрос о направлении миротворцев из Казахстана в зону конфликта между РФ и Украиной (Maulen Ashimbayev answered the question about the deployment of peacekeepers from Kazakhstan to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine),” Kazinform (government-run news agency in Kazakhstan), 24 February 2022.

https://www.inform.kz/ru/maulen-ashimbaev-otvetil-na-vopros-o-napravlenii-mirotvorcev-iz-kazahstana-v-zonu-konflikta-mezhdu-rf-i-ukrainoy_a3903655

The Chair of the Senate of the Republic of Kazakhstan Maulen Ashimbayev commented on the question of the possible deployment of Kazakh peacekeepers to take part in the conflict in Ukraine, Kazinform reports.

“In this situation, we must proceed from the following – Kazakhstan is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization – the CSTO. In this regard, the question arises, is it possible to send Kazakh peacekeepers to the conflict?… . In accordance with the Charter of the United Nations and in accordance with other documents, Kazakhstan can send our peacekeepers outside the CSTO countries only in accordance with a UN mandate,” Maulen Ashimbayev said…

The speaker noted that, in accordance with the CSTO charter, peacekeeping forces and troops of the organization’s countries can only be used on the territory of the participating countries…

Source: “Депутаты коснулись вопроса возможности применения механизма ОДКБ в Украине (Deputies raised the issue of the possibility of using the mechanism of the CSTO in Ukraine),” Armen Press (Armenian state news agency), 7 March 2022.

https://armenpress.am/rus/news/1077269.html

The CSTO mechanisms work only in case of an attack on one of the CSTO member states. Vahagn Aleksanyan, a member of the “Civil Contract” faction of the National Assembly, said this, what would Armenia’s position be if Russia, the CSTO partner, offered to implement the CSTO mechanisms…

“It should be noted that the CSTO mechanisms are triggered in the event of an attack on one of the CSTO member states, the transfer of hostilities to the territory of Russia, at least for the moment, I do not consider likely,” Aleksanyan said…


Image Information:

Image: Maulen Ashimbayev.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Maulen_Ashimbayev.jpg
Attribution: CC 1.0

Turkey Tries To Mitigate Economic Impact of Sanctions on Russia

Erdoğan and Putin at the Kremlin, 23 September 2015.

Erdoğan and Putin at the Kremlin, 23 September 2015.


“Us three countries, Russia, China and Turkey can trade among ourselves with our national currencies; with the ruble, yuan, the Turkish lira and gold.”                                                                                                                                                -Turkish President Erdoğan


The sanctions on Russia will cost the Turkish economy at least $30-35 billion, according to Turkish economists quoted in the pro-government newspaper Yenicag.com.  There will be a significant hit to Turkey’s tourism industry, an increase in energy prices and agricultural products, as well as further decline in the Turkish lira.  In an effort to mitigate this impact, Turkey appears to be trying to position itself as a safe haven from Russian sanctions.

As the accompanying passage from pro-government newspaper Hürriyet reports, in early March, Turkish President Erdoğan suggested to Putin, “Us three countries, Russia, China and Turkey can trade among ourselves with our national currencies; with the ruble, yuan, the Turkish lira and gold.”  Pro-government outlets interpreted Erdoğan’s offer as a “historic hand [being extended] to Russia, whose ties with the international system are being cut and who is being isolated.”  Others criticized this as ridiculous, claiming that the world would not accept Turkey’s effort to turn the Russian sanctions into an advantage while it endures the costs.  Regardless of the reactions to the idea, business leaders said Turkey should actively work to develop a mechanism to facilitate trade with Russia in rubles, as the passage from pro-government Daily Sabah reports. 

Economically, Russia is an important trading partner to Turkey, with over 3000 Turkish companies operating in Russia and a trading volume of over $32.5 billion annually.  Russia provides 34% of Turkey’s natural gas, is building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, and sends the greatest number of tourists to Turkey.  Russia and its banks’ exclusion from the international payment system will create challenges in Russia making its payments to Turkish contractors in Russia and to Turkish travel agents that organize tours for Russian tourists to visit Turkey. 

Politically, Turkey is a neighboring country to both Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea and has good relations with both, including a developing partnership with Ukraine, whereby Turkey sells it armed drones.  As such, Turkey has been trying to play a balancing act between Ukraine and Russia regarding Russia’s invasion.  On the one hand, Turkey acted with its NATO allies and strongly condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine, openly calls Russia’s invasion a “war,” and voted to condemn Russia in the United Nations.  President Erdoğan said that Turkey would continue to sell armed drones to Ukraine.  On the other hand, Turkey abstained from a vote to suspend Russia’s membership rights within the European Council, and announced it was not planning to impose sanctions on Russia.


Source:

“Atilla Yeşilada Türk ekonomisine düşen bombayı duyurdu (Atilla Yeşilada explains the bomb that is about to explode on the Turkish economy),” Yenicag.com.tr (pro-government newspaper), 25 February 2022. https://www.yenicaggazetesi.com.tr/atilla-yesilada-rusyaukrayna-savasi-sonrasi-turk-ekonomisine-dusen-bombayi-acikladi-514360h.htm         

Turkish Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s Association Chief Economist Gizem Öztok Altınsaç says that the geopolitical tension can have an initial cost to Turkey of about $30-35 billion.

Source: Abdülkadir Selvi, “Erdoğan, Putin’e ne önerdi? (What did Erdoğan suggest to Putin?),” Hurriyet.com (pro-government newspaper), 8 March 2022. https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/yazarlar/abdulkadir-selvi/erdogan-putine-ne-onerdi-42017962

At the AK Party Central Executive Council, President Erdoğan made important statements about the meeting he had with Putin.  He said he suggested to Putin, that “Us three countries, Russia, China and Turkey can trade among ourselves with our national currencies; with the ruble, yuan, the Turkish lira and gold.” 

…With this suggestion, Erdoğan is extending a historic hand to Russia, whose ties with the international system are being cut and who is being isolated. At the same time, he is taking steps to turn the crisis into an opportunity for Turkey.  Would Russia, who is being isolated in the world, consider the Turkey and China option?  Why not? 

Source: “Uslu: İnsanlar ayçiçek yağı ile güçlü lider arasında tercih yapabilir (Uslu: People can decide between sunflower oil and a strong leader),” Karar.com.tr (independent Turkish newspaper), 8 March 2022. https://www.karar.com/karar-tv/bikarar-ver-bugun-karar-tvde-12-1655020

Political communications expert İbrahim Uslu [said about Erdoğan’s offer to Putin]: “This is unbelievable, even if you convince Putin, once the world feels that you are intensely piercing their sanctions, they will sanction us…  As the world imposes sanctions and endures significant economic costs, they will not look favorably upon Turkey’s attempt to turn this into an opportunity, attempt to feed the entire Russian market by itself and comfortably make money from this.  Such suggestions can seem appealing trade-wise, but they should be reconsidered in light of political international relations and the alliances that Turkey belongs to.” 

Source: “Turkish businesses expect progress on using rubles in trade with Russia,” Daily Sabah (pro-government newspaper), 11 March 2022. https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/turkish-businesses-expect-progress-on-using-rubles-in-trade-with-russia

Since the currency dispute with shipping companies is causing problems in the delivery of goods passing through customs, Turkey should actively work to develop a mechanism to facilitate trade with Russia in rubles, Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) head Şekib Avdagiç said Friday.

Avdagiç stated that the companies working with Russia see the withdrawal of Western countries from Moscow as a new opportunity and emphasized that it is important to enable the use of the national currency of Russia.


Image Information:

Image: Erdoğan and Putin at the Kremlin, 23 September 2015.
Source: Kremlin.ru, via Wikimedia Commons
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Erdo%C4%9Fan_and_Putin.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0