Monthly Archives: February 2022

Russia’s Increasingly Visible Military Presence in Mali

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Map showing Russia and Mali.

Map showing Russia and Mali.

“‘You speak of mercenaries, it’s your business. For us, they are Russian instructors,’ said the Malian official.”  

Although Mali has longstanding military ties with France, Russia is filling the void left in the region following France’s withdrawal of forces from Mali.  According to a recent French-language article in tvmonde.com, Russian personnel have replaced French troops at a base in Timbuktu.  The article further suggests there may be up to 400 Russians in Mali operating as military instructors.

The article contends there is also growing confirmation of Russia’s Wagner Group in Mali, implying that the Russians are, in fact, mercenaries rather than regular armed forces.  According to the article, a Malian official in Timbuktu noted mercenaries were what outsiders might call the Russian troops, but from the Malian perspective all that matters is that the Russians are instructing Malian soldiers.  Meanwhile, according to a 12 January report in Russian-language Interfax military news.com, Russia denies any government role in Wagner Group activities in Mali and considers the company as having the right to independently pursue business interests in Mali.

The tvmonde.com article also notes that France and UN forces in Mali remain suspicious of the Russian presence and have reportedly conducted flights over the Timbuktu base hosting the Russians.  The article states that this angered Russia and caused Mali to request that France discontinue flights over the base.

Source:

“Mali: les Russes présentés comme des instructeurs de plus en plus nombreux (Mali: Russians presented more and more as instructors),” information.tv5monde.com 7 January 2021. https://information.tv5monde.com/afrique/mali-les-russes-presentes-comme-des-instructeurs-de-plus-en-plus-nombreux-439418#:~:text=Un%20des%20responsables%20maliens%20a,notre%20camp%20militaire%20de%20Sofara.&text=Mais%20un%20influent%20%C3%A9lu%20d,%C3%AAtre%20tu%C3%A9%20des%20mercenaires%20russes%22

Many Russian instructors have been deployed in Mali in recent weeks, especially on the Timbuktu base (north) recently left by French forces, said Malian military officials. One of these officials responded in the affirmative to the possibility that these instructors now number about 400 across the country.

The apparent strengthening of cooperation with Russia coincides with the reconfiguration of the French forces and the planned reduction of the Barkhane anti-jihadist force, which will drop from around 5,000 soldiers in the Sahel in the summer of 2021 to around 3,000 in the summer of 2022. Barkhane recently handed over three bases in the north to the Malians, the most recent in Timbuktu in mid-December. Russian instructors recently arrived in Timbuktu to accompany the delivery of Russian helicopters, a Malian official said. Another Malian official, also on condition of anonymity, confirmed the presence of “Russian military instructors in several parts of Mali. You speak of mercenaries, it’s your business. For us, they are Russian instructors,” said the chief official.

Source: “Москве неизвестно, сколько граждан РФ, сотрудников ЧВК “Вагнер”, находятся в Мали” (“Moscow does not know how many citizens of the Russian Federation and employees of Wagner PMC are in Mali),” Interfax militarynews.ru (Russian language news service), 12 January 2022. https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=564129&lang=RU

As a high-ranking diplomat stressed, “the officials of the Russian Federation have nothing to do with the activities of our private companies. This is capitalism. Everyone earns as they can,” he added. The interlocutor provided a negative answer to the question of whether, in principle, a register of Russian citizens in Mali is maintained.

Image Information:

Image: Map showing Russia and Mali
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mali_Russia_Locator.svg
Attribution: [CC x 2.0]

Russia Highlighting Use of “Cube” and “Lancet” Loitering Munitions in Syria

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ZALA Lancet loitering munition.

ZALA Lancet loitering munition.

“…government tests of the KYB loitering munition have been completed, and the results of the tests are considered positive… it was recommended that the Russian army be armed with this new type of strike attack drone…”

As reported in the accompanying December 2021 article from Russia’s Arabic-language media outlet RT Arabic, the KYB-UAV “kamikaze drone” (also referred to as KUB-BLA or “Cube”) has passed government field tests and is now ready for procurement by Russian forces, which is expected to begin this year.  The KYB-UAV is made by ZALA AERO, a subsidiary of the Kalashnikov Concern, itself a subsidiary of Rostec.  The KYB-UAV was first made public at Abu Dhabi’s 2019 weapons expo (IDEX-2019).  In December 2020, Rostec’s CEO explained that the KYB, along with a more advanced ZALA AERO loitering munitions platform called the Lancet, distinguishable by its double x-shaped tail, had both been tested in Syria that year.  A documentary that aired last December on the state-owned Russian-language news channel Russia 24 includes an interview with a purported Russian Lancet operator who oversaw more than 40 strikes in Syria, including a pair of targeted assassinations in Hama Province in April 2020.  Recently, Russian state television networksfeatured several clips of Lancets being used in Syria to target rebel positions and infrastructure.  As the article from the Syrian opposition news network Shaam News Network notes, a recent clip shows a Lancet targeting a small oil refinery in rural Hama Province.    However, the accuracy of Syrian opposition media reports on these platforms is limited, given the difficulty in distinguishing them from other weapons, and because Iranian and Syrian government forces operate similar, though more rudimentary, kamikaze drones. 

Source:

“مصدر روسي يعلن إنجاز اختبارات الدرون الانتحاري كوب


(Russian Source Announces Success of ‘Cube’ Suicide Drone Tests),” RT Arabic (Russian Arabic-language news network), 16 December 2021. https://tinyurl.com/2p86e54n

A source close to the Russian Ministry of Defense said that government tests of the KYB loitering munition have been completed, and the results of the tests are considered positive. The source added: “As a result of these tests, it was recommended that the Russian army be armed with this new type of strike attack drone.” The source indicated that the delivery of these drones to the armed forces will most likely start in 2022.

Source:

“الدفاع الروسية تستعرض مسيرات لانسيت الانتحارية بمقاطع تظهر استخدامها بسوريا

(Russian Defense Ministry Displays Use of ‘Lancet’ Suicide UAV in Video Clip from Syria),” Shaam News Network (Syrian opposition news network), 26 December 2021. https://tinyurl.com/bddd8f9p

The Russian Ministry of Defense published a video clip showing the use of “Lancet” Russian suicide drones, which it said shows the destruction of a small oil refinery factory belonging to the rebel factions in the countryside of Hama. Sham News Network was unable to determine the target location. Video clips were also posted on the telegram channel of Russia-1 journalist Alexander Rogatkin. The full version will be shown on Saturday on the Russia 24 TV channel. The journalist explained on his channel: “A small oil refinery belonging to Syrian militants was destroyed in the Hama countryside with the help of two munitions by the special operations forces of the Russian Armed Forces. It is assumed that Lancet drones were used.”

Source:  “Война Дронов – 2021 (Drone Wars – 2021),” Russia 24 (State-owned Russian-language news channel), 25 December 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Me7shKOc0c

Image Information:

Image: ZALA Lancet loitering munition.
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin Military Blog, https://www.vitalykuzmin.net/Military/ARMY-2019-Exhibition-pavilions/i-HwGLLZC/A
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. https://www.vitalykuzmin.net/Copyright-policy

Somalia: Puntland Troops Fight Each Other, Not Terrorists

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While this al-Shabaab leader was killed, future progress against the terrorist organization in Puntland is threatened by military in-fighting.

Somalia’s forces in Puntland State have turned their guns against one another, leading to fears that al-Shabaab could take advantage to establish their base in the area.

Puntland’s armed forces are expected to fight al-Shabaab and Islamic State terrorists.  However, according to the excerpted accompanying article from a Kenyan media group’s publication, The East African, the military members from this autonomous, federal state of Somalia recently turned their weapons on each other in the port town of Bossaso.  Specifically, fighting occurred between forces loyal to Puntland’s government and an elite antiterrorism brigade known as the Puntland Security Force (PSF).  Heavy and light arms were used in the fighting, reportedly intense at times, resulting in both combatant and civilian casualties.

Purportedly, Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni’s attempt in November to sack Mohamud Osman Diyaano, the director of the PSF, was the cause of the hostilities.  The same decree that dismissed Diyaano also appointed Brigadier General Mohamed Amin Abdullahi as his replacement.  As the article notes, Diyaano rejected the move and, along with top PSF officers, declared the dismissal and replacement to be illegal.

There are concerns that the clash between the two components of the armed forces will weaken its capabilities and resolve to combat al-Shabaab and the Islamic State.  Unlike neighboring Somaliland, which has declared its independence from Somalia and wishes to be recognized as a sovereign nation, Puntland has decided to remain part of Somalia.  Puntland’s contribution to combating al-Shabaab and the Islamic State is valued and important, and any distraction from its military objective benefits these terrorist organizations.  Unfortunately, the terrorists threaten the stability not just of Puntland but of the entire geostrategic nation of Somalia, whose neighboring waters see tremendous amounts of tanker traffic helping to supply the world with oil.

Source:

Abdulkadir Khalif, “Puntland soldiers turn weapons on each other,” The East African (a Kenyan media group), 25 December 2021.  https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/puntland-soldiers-turn-weapons-on-each-other-3662910

Somalia’s forces in Puntland State have turned their guns against one another, leading to fears that al-Shabaab could take advantage to establish their base in the area.

In the past couple of weeks, an armed clash in the port city, some 1,500km northeast of Mogadishu, has seen the law enforcers mostly engage in vicious fights, rather than guarding civilians.

Neither the pro-government side nor the PSF officers have issued clear information on the status of the fighting and the casualty levels.

Bossaso, the commercial capital and the main port of Puntland, had become a ghost town as residents fled for cover on Tuesday. Businesses remained largely closed.

Image Information:

Image: While this al-Shabaab leader was killed, future progress against the terrorist organization in Puntland is threatened by military in-fighting.
Source: Wargeyska Saxafi, Wikimedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Godane.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0

Russian Orthodox Church Strengthening Its Position in Africa

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St Sergius Russian Orthodox Church in Noordwyk, Midrand, South Africa.

St Sergius Russian Orthodox Church in Noordwyk, Midrand, South Africa.

“…The expansion of the mission of the Russian Orthodox Church to Africa is an important ecclesiastical and political step…”

Even before open war broke out in late February, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine shook the international community of believers who share the Orthodox faith.  In 2019, the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople officially recognized and established the Orthodox Church of Ukraine.  The Kremlin and the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) interpreted this as weakening their influence in Ukraine, as well as furthering the divide between the Ecumenical Patriarchy in Constantinople and its counterpart in Russia.  Since then, the leadership of the ROC has been working to expand its influence in regions that have traditionally fallen under the mandate of those churches that support the Ecumenical Patriarch.  The accompanying excerpt from the pro-business Russian daily newspaper Kommersant describes how the ROC has recently made significant inroads among Orthodox believers in Africa at the expense of the Ecumenical Patriarchy.  The article does not make it clear whether or not the Kremlin is using the ROC as a soft-power tool in this case. 

The article begins by stating, “the Holy Synod accepted into the Russian Orthodox Church more than a hundred clerics of the Patriarchate of Alexandria from eight African countries.”  These clerics, according to the article, “came under the jurisdiction of the Moscow Patriarchate due to their categorical disagreement with the decision of the Patriarch of Alexandria to recognize the Orthodox Church of Ukraine.”  The article quotes a religious expert who asserts that “the expansion of the mission of the Russian Orthodox Church to Africa is an important ecclesiastical and political step.”  This expert concludes by stating that “Orthodoxy is developing quite dynamically in various states of the continent and attracts millions of people, [which will] strengthen the role of Moscow in the global Christian mission, despite all political crises.”

Source:

Pavel Korobov, “Русская православная церковь укрепила позиции в Африке (The Russian Orthodox Church has strengthened its position in Africa),” Kommersant (pro business Russian daily newspaper), 29 December 2021. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5154738

…On Wednesday, the Holy Synod accepted into the Russian Orthodox Church more than a hundred clerics of the Patriarchate of Alexandria from eight African countries. The clergy came under the jurisdiction of the Moscow Patriarchate due to their categorical disagreement with the decision of the Patriarch of Alexandria — he recognized the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, established by Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople. The expert is convinced that the decision of the Russian Orthodox Church will irritate the Patriarchs of Alexandria and Constantinople, but will lead to the strengthening of Moscow’s role in the global Christian mission….

…To date, at least a hundred parishes of the Patriarchate of Alexandria, headed by their pastors, have declared their desire to transfer to the bosom of the Russian Orthodox Church…. 

The head of the Center for the Study of Problems of Religion and Society at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Roman Lunkin, called the decision “echoes of the conflict” between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Patriarchate of Constantinople… “The expansion of the mission of the Russian Orthodox Church to Africa is an important ecclesiastical and political step,” says Mr. Lunkin. “The development of preaching among Africans has great prospects, Orthodoxy is developing quite dynamically in various states of the continent and attracts millions of people.” …In this regard, Mr. Lunkin speaks of “strengthening the role of Moscow in the global Christian mission, despite all political crises: Irritation of Constantinople and the Patriarchate of Alexandria is inevitable.”

Image Information:

Image: St Sergius Russian Orthodox Church in Noordwyk, Midrand, South Africa.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:St_Sergius_Russian_Orthodox_Church,_Noordwyk,_Midrand.jpg
Attribution: CCA SA 4.0 Intl

Russians View Military Increasingly Favorably as Extortion and Other Negative News Go Underreported

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“… Extortion from contract soldiers in distant garrisons is a fairly typical picture for Russia.”

Domestic attitudes toward the Russian military have improved significantly over the past decade.  As the first excerpt from the official Russian news agency TASS points out, during the December meeting of senior military leaders, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu “stressed that Russian citizens highly value the activities of the military department.  According to polls, more than 90% of Russians are confident that the military is capable of protecting them, and 88% are proud of the army and navy.” 

Some of this improvement may be because of policies implemented by the Kremlin, which restrict negative reporting about the Russian military, including recent news about extortion of Russian soldiers.  The second accompanying excerpt from the mostly independent Russian news outlet Nezavisimaya Gazeta describes an adverse incident “where contract servicemen (including officers) were imposed tribute by criminals… in the military garrison in Yurga (Kemerovo region).”  As the article points out, even though this example of military extortion was “actively discussed in social networks and on internet portals,” official media almost completely ignored it.  The article quotes military journalist Viktor Baranets, who asserts, “extortion from contract soldiers in distant garrisons is a fairly typical picture for Russia.  There have been several cases in my memory when local criminals actually impose tribute on military personnel.”  The article concludes by citing a recent senior military investigator who claims that in 2021, “the number of crimes against the order of military service has increased.” 

Not surprisingly, as the third excerpt indicates, shortly after this article was published, a senior official in the Department of Information and Mass Communications of the Ministry of Defense wrote a letter to Nezavisimaya Gazeta claiming that the story was false.  According to this official, “inspections carried out by the command and law enforcement agencies in the military units of the Yurga garrison did not reveal a single case of extortion of money from servicemen in 2021.”

Source:

Stanislav Krasilnikov, “Миротворцы и спасатели: главные достижения армии России за 2021 год (Peacekeepers and rescuers: the main achievements of the Russian military in 2021),” TASS (official Russian news agency), 29 December 2021. https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/13314335

Summing up the results of the activities of the Russian Armed Forces in 2021, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stressed that Russian citizens highly appreciate the activities of the military department. According to polls, more than 90% of Russians are confident that the army is capable of protecting them, and 88% are proud of the army and navy. 

Source: Vladimir Mukhin, “Беспредел в гарнизонах искоренить не удалось (The chaos in the garrisons could not be eradicated),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (mostly independent Russian news source), 26 December 2021. https://www.ng.ru/armies/2021-12-26/2_8336_army.html

At the events of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation dedicated to summing up the results of the activities of the army and navy, official reports available in the public domain this year did not provide data on the state of military discipline and law and order among personnel….  The media are discussing the scandal in the military garrison in Yurga (Kemerovo region), where the contract servicemen (including officers) were imposed tribute by representatives of the local criminals.

The situation in the military garrison in Yurga is actively discussed in social networks and on Internet portals…, about the alleged extortions from contract servicemen (including officers), organized by representatives of the local criminals. According to media reports, the military are threatened, they are blackmailed, while they are afraid to go to law enforcement agencies and “pay tribute without complaint.” …One of the gangster leaders, whose photo is quoted on the portal, allegedly “even has a whole list of almost a hundred military men who regularly pay tribute to him.” 

…This situation seems wild. Viktor Baranets, a member of the Public Council under the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, shares his concern… “Extortion from contract soldiers in distant garrisons is a fairly typical picture for Russia. There have been several cases in my memory when local criminals actually impose tribute on military personnel.” 

…In July 2021, summing up the work of military investigators in the first half of the year, the then acting head of the GVSU, Lieutenant General of Justice Sergei Fedotov, said that “in the field of military service, the number of crimes against the order of military service has increased….” 

Source: A. Volosatov, “Ответ Министерства обороны РФ на материал ‘Беспредел в гарнизонах искоренить не удалось’ (Response of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation to the material ‘Lawlessness in garrisons could not be eradicated,),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 28 December 2021. https://www.ng.ru/letter/2021-12-28/2_8338_answer.html

In the material of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, published on December 27… provided about the allegedly unsatisfactory state of law and order in the military garrisons associated with extortion of money from servicemen… This article is absolutely untrue. The inspections carried out by the command and law enforcement agencies in the military units of the Yurga garrison did not reveal a single case of extortion of money from servicemen in 2021….

Deputy Head of the Department of Information and Mass Communications of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation A. Volosatov

Guerrilla Groups Continue To Threaten Colombia Along Border with Venezuela

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Members of Colombia’s National Liberation Army, which operates along the border area between Colombia and Venezuela, pose with their weapons.

Members of Colombia’s National Liberation Army, which operates along the border area between Colombia and Venezuela, pose with their weapons.

“Very early in 2022, the horror of the war showed its face again in Arauca, where not only have the effects of peace with the FARC not been seen, but, on the contrary, violence has reached levels of the crudest stages of the armed conflict.”

The border region between Colombia and Venezuela is experiencing some of its worst violence in years.  Since 2 January 2022, several dozen have died in what could be a series of contract killings, according to center-left Colombian daily El Espectador.  The daily states that originally, Colombian prosecutors suspected the dead were members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a guerrilla group operating along the border, contesting territory with the National Liberation Army (ELN), another prominent guerrilla group.  According to an article in the politically centrist Colombian daily El Tiempo, Colombian President Iván Duque has increased the troop presence in the border region to combat drug trafficking and establish greater state presence in these remote stretches. 

Violence along the border between Colombia and Venezuela is certainly nothing new.  However, this flare-up is a reminder of the criminal sanctuary provided to Colombia’s FARC and ELN by the Maduro regime in Venezuela, and the instability fomented throughout Latin America by the actions of these groups.  Unlike previous flare-ups in Apure state in Venezuela, these incidents have not led to migratory flows but underscore that Colombia has yet to realize fully the fruits of its demobilization efforts with guerrilla groups.  Lastly, with Colombia’s presidential election slated for May 2022, guerrilla groups and demobilization efforts will be key issues in the campaign.

Source:

“No hubo Combate:” Fiscalía elevó a 27 los muertos en Arauca y dio nueva hipótesis (There was no combat:” Prosecutor’s Office raised the dead in Arauca to 27 and gave a new hypothesis),” El Espectador (Colombian daily generally considered to be center-left in its political orientation), 5 January 2022.  https://www.elespectador.com/judicial/no-hubo-combate-fiscalia-elevo-a-27-los-muertos-en-arauca-y-dio-nueva-hipotesis/   

Since January 2, 27 dead have been found in different rural areas of Arauca, the Prosecutor’s Office reported on Wednesday.  The attorney general, Francisco Barbosa, provided a new hypothesis based on what investigators have found in the field and in the autopsies of the deceased: apparently, there were no combats, but the people were murdered in the form of contract killers.

Source:  “Muerte en la frontera (Death on the Border),” El Tiempo (one of Colombia’s oldest dailies generally described as politically-centrist), 4 January 2022.  https://www.eltiempo.com/opinion/editorial/muerte-en-la-frontera-editorial-el-tiempo-643053 

Early in 2022, the horror of the war showed its face again in Arauca, where not only have the effects of peace with the FARC not been seen, but, on the contrary, violence has reached levels of the crudest stages of the armed conflict…All this within the framework of the complicity, when not open participation in the crime, of the authorities of the Nicolás Maduro regime…Understanding the challenge posed by the natural conditions of the border and the lack of collaboration from the authorities on the other side to curb crime, it is clear that more efficient efforts and strategies are still needed.

Image Information:

Image:  Members of Colombia’s National Liberation Army, which operates along the border area between Colombia and Venezuela, pose with their weapons.
Source:  https://www.flickr.com/photos/brasildefato/32317009638
Attribution:  Flickr

Iran Busts Weapons and Ammunition Smuggling Ring

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“Two heavy shipments of weapons…were discovered.”

Iran has long had difficulty controlling illicit weaponry within its borders.  At the conclusion of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War, there was little if any organized demobilization or disarmament: conscripts simply returned home, often with their weapons.  Over subsequent years, successive Iranian administrations offered amnesties to enable citizens to return weapons without penalty as gun ownership and possession is, in most cases, a crime.  The fact that they have had to do so repeatedly suggests the ineffectiveness of their efforts.

Beyond the war-related and unaccounted for arms making their way into the public domain, Iran has long faced weapons smuggling from neighboring states.  The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has found it difficult to operate in southeastern and northwestern Iran, two regions populated both by ethnic and sectarian minorities and with borders drawn through inhospitable terrain.  The conflicts and drug trade in both Afghanistan and Iraq have increased arms smuggling opportunities in these border areas.  The excerpted article from Iran news media outlet Fars New Agency suggests Iran faces a problem with loose weapons in Khuzestan, the oil-producing region of Iran at the top of the Persian Gulf and adjacent to southern Iraq.  It relates successful operations against two alleged arms smuggling operations in the refinery city of Ahvaz and Karun county in Khuzestan Province, where authorities seized 87 illegal weapons.

While the excerpted article alludes to smugglers’ efforts to create “instability” in Iran, the article does not address possible motives nor possible connections to active terror cells in the area (See: “Iranian Government Details Ahvaz Terrorist Incidents,” OE Watch, November 2018).  It is unclear if the weapons stay in Khuzestan or are smuggled deeper into Iran.  If the former, it could suggest a vulnerability that unknown cells are smuggling weapons into Iran’s chief oil-producing region that is responsible for the majority of Iran’s foreign currency earnings.  The weapons in the photograph accompanying the story appear to be short-barreled shotguns commonly designated as riot, as well as breaching or tactical shotguns not designed or intended for hunting or other more pedestrian uses.

Source:

“Anhedam Do Band-e Qacheq-e Salah va Mohemat dar Khuzestan (Destruction of Two Arms and Ammunition Smuggling Gangs in Khuzestan),” Fars News Agency (media outlet close to the Islamic Republic’s security forces), 3 January 2022. https://www.farsnews.ir/khuzestan/news/14001013000043

According to the Fars News Agency in Ahvaz, the Khuzestan police commander issued a statement announcing: Police intelligence and security officers in the province, by means of superior intelligence, learned that two smuggling gangs had entered the cities of Ahvaz and Karun with the aim of creating insecurity in the country, conducted an operation, identified and destroyed them. In these comprehensive operations, two heavy shipments of weapons, including 87 weapons of war and hunting, and a significant amount of ammunition were discovered.

Russian NBC Defense Troops Increase Thermobaric Munition Capabilities

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TOS-2 ‘Tosochka’ Flamethrower.

TOS-2 ‘Tosochka’ Flamethrower.

TOS-1A ‘Solntsepek’ Flamethrower.

TOS-1A ‘Solntsepek’ Flamethrower.

“The Defense Ministry has told Izvestiya that three new battalions will be formed in the Southern Military District, armed with the TOS-1A Solntsepek and TOS-2 Tosochka heavy flamethrowers.”

“Unmanned aerial vehicles will permit the rapid destruction of targets in urban area, and also targets that are hidden in terrain folds or are located in fortifications…They are needed in order to destroy important facilities in the enemy tactical rear – for example, munitions and fuel dumps, communications centers, and unarmored vehicles, in which command posts are based…”

The accompanying excerpted articles from Russian government news service TASS and pro-Kremlin daily newspaper Izvestiya discuss Russian efforts to increase thermobaric munition capabilities in the NBC Defense Troops.  Although thermobaric munitions, referred to as “flamethrowers” in the Russian military, exist elsewhere (artillery, aviation, etc.) in the Russian Armed Forces, thermobarics are considered primarily an NBC Defense Troops’ weapon.  The TASS article features an interview with Aleksandr Smirnov, the General Director of Splav, the firm that produces the soon to be fielded TOS-2 “Tosochka” wheeled heavy flamethrower.  In the current structure of the Russian Ground Forces, shoulder-fired flamethrower squads and platoons may be present in the NBC defense companies of Russian maneuver brigades.   Company-sized flamethrower units are only present in the flamethrower battalions, in the NBC defense regiments of the Combined Arms Armies, Tank Army, and Army Corps.  The typical Russian flamethrower battalion consists of two companies of shoulder-launched flamethrowers, and one company of vehicle-launched heavy flamethrowers.  The typical heavy flamethrower company has 35 personnel; three TOS-1A ‘Solntsepek’ heavy flamethrowers, each with 24 220mm thermobaric rockets mounted on a T-72 chassis; and six TZM-T transporter/loader vehicles, which are also mounted on a T-72 chassis.  Izvestiya notes that the Southern Military District will increase its number of heavy flamethrower systems to 42 by 2024, with the intent of eventually having a heavy flamethrower battalion in each regiment by 2027, resulting in a six-fold increase in firepower from current capabilities.  Another edition of Izvestiya states that Russia is considering developing a UAV capable of dropping a thermobaric munition for the NBC Defense Troops.  Although Russia has not shown much interest in mounting weapons on small UAVs, this may be beginning to change as the Russian Ground Forces experimented with such a system—the “Lastochka” Complex—during Zapad-2021.

Source:

Milena Sineva and Dmitriy Fedyushko, “”Тосочка”, “Земледелие” и новые РСЗО: Глава “Сплава” о перспективах ракетной артиллерии РФ (‘Tosochka’, ‘Zemledeliye’, and New Multiple Rocket Launchers: The Chief of Splav on the Prospects for Russia’s Rocket Artillery),” TASS (government news service of the Russian Federation), 18 November 2021. https://tass.ru/interviews/12958773

Multiple rocket launchers are an integral component of Russia’s rocket and artillery forces, who directly support the Ground Troops on the battlefield. Since the appearance of the legendary BM-13 Katyusha, multiple rocket launchers have become much more modern in terms of their accuracy and are gradually catching up with operational-tactical systems. Aleksandr Smirnov, general director of the A.N. Ganichev Splav Science and Production Association (part of the Technodinamika holding company in the Rostec state corporation) discussed the latest advances in Russian rocket artillery with TASS …

What is being done now regarding work on the TOS-2 “Tosochka” heavy flamethrower system?

Joint testing is now under way at enterprises of the Rostec state corporation, in particular Splav and “Special Design Bureau” of the military division at Motovilikha Plants. The plan is to complete it by the end of the year.  The forces are looking forward to these machines. We are already training crews to operate the new system, because its engineering is radically different from the TOS-1A. We hope that the TOS-2 will be much in demand in our armed forces. As far as I know, when the system was first displayed during the parade on Red Square it sparked interest among foreign customers.

Are new projectiles in development for the TOS-2?

Yes, a new rocket has been developed. State tests are being conducted and an initial batch of prototypes has been made for troops to try out. We are also planning to complete all the testing of another munition for the TOS-2 this year. Its distinguishing feature is its longer range, and it can be used by the TOS-1A.

How can the TOS-1A and TOS-2A coexist on the battlefield?

They can do so just fine. Depending on the tactical environment, commanders will be able to employ either a weapon that moves on wheels or one that is on tracks.

When can we expect to see the TOS-2 on the world market?

The promotional materials for the weapon were drawn up this year. Bearing in mind foreign customers’ interest in the TOS-1A, we can safely predict a similar export potential for the TOS-2 because a number of its specifications have been improved, such as longer range, a wheeled chassis, and better ergonomics.

Could the Tosochka be mounted on other chassis types?It is technically possible, but not worthwhile. The artillery part is attached to a specific type of chassis.

Source: Aleksey Ramm and Bogdan Stepovoy, “ТОС уполномочен, юг страны усиливают тяжелыми огнеметами: В ЮВО сформируют сразу три батальона с системами «Солнцепек» и «Тосочка» (The TOS Is Be Empowered, South of the Country to Be Reinforced with Heavy Flamethrowers: Southern Military District To Form Three Battalions at Once With Solntsepek and Tosochka Systems),” Izvestiya (large-circulation pro-Kremlin daily newspaper), 15 November 2021.

https://iz.ru/1253152/aleksei-ramm-bogdan-stepovoi/tos-upolnomochen-iug-strany-usilivaiut-tiazhelymi-ognemetami

The Defense Ministry has told Izvestiya that three new battalions will be formed in the Southern Military District, armed with the TOS-1A Solntsepek and TOS-2 Tosochka heavy flamethrowers. They will cover the south of the country — the Caucasus, Crimea, and the border with Ukraine. According to Izvestiya’s sources they could also be deployed to the strategic western sector, The mobility of the Tosochka, which is mounted on wheels, enables it to travel hundreds of kilometers on public roads.

In Russia’s army the TOS-1 is in service with individual units of the radiation, chemical, and biological defense troops. Sources say that delivery of the flamethrowers to the Southern Military District will be a phased process. During the first phase — up to 2024 — their numbers in existing units will be increased to 42 systems.

During the second phase the number of flamethrowers is expected to increase gradually as additional subunits are created in the radiation, chemical, and biological defense regiments of combined-arms armies. The plan is to create three new heavy flamethrower battalions by 2027, which will provide their groups of forces with a six-fold increase in firepower on what they have today…

Large-scale exercises with NATO ships and aircraft ended recently in the Black Sea region and there is unrest in Ukraine and on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. In such circumstances the southern strategic sector is begging to be beefed up, says military historian Aleksey Khlopotov.

“Heavy flamethrower systems proved their effectiveness during the fighting in Syria and Iraq,” he said to Izvestiya. “They’re indispensable when eliminating an enemy who is hunkered down in well-fortified positions or buildings or in mountains. The Solntsepek and Tosochka will complement each other. The tank armor of the former means it can be used in forward positions and deliver strikes from close range. The Tosochka, which has a wheeled chassis, will be good when conducting mobile operations.”The wheeled chassis gives a number of advantages, Aleksey Khlopotov said. In terms of speed when traveling and on the move the TOS-2 is comparable to ordinary cars, which makes it particularly effective in places with extensive road networks and also in steppe and desert terrain and areas of stony ground.  “The wheeled-chassis system is cheaper to produce and service and has a longer operating life — they’re cheaper to maintain,” Khlopotov concluded…

Source: Anton Lavrov and Bogdan Stepovoy, “Летящей наводкой: российская армия заказала беспилотные огнеметчики: Новая система позволит наносить по противнику удары термобарическими и зажигательными бомбами (Using the Flying Artillery Spotter: The Russian Army Has Ordered Unmanned Flamethrowers: New System Will Permit the Conduct of Strikes against the Enemy using Thermobaric and Incendiary Bombs),” Izvestiya, (large-circulation pro-Kremlin daily newspaper), 5 October 2021.

https://iz.ru/1230786/anton-lavrov-bogdan-stepovoi/letiashchei-navodkoi-rossiiskaia-armiia-zakazala-bespilotnye-ognemetchiki

Flamethrower Drones will appear in the Russian Army. The Ministry of Defense has approved the performance specifications for new weapon systems for the Radiological, Chemical, and Biological Defense Troops, sources in the Military Department told Izvestiya. In particular, unmanned aerial flamethrower systems ended up on the list of new weapons. They will be manufactured based upon small aircraft or quadcopters. The UAVs will be able to destroy the enemy using compact thermobaric or incendiary charges. The experts emphasize that those weapon systems will become especially dangerous in conditions of an urban engagement and also during the destruction of enemy reinforcements. They will help to save the lives of peaceful residents and soldiers in street engagements…

The NBC defense units have weapon systems to accomplish any missions. Among them – are handheld “Shmel” rocket-propelled flamethrowers and “Buratino”, “Solntsepek”, and “Tosochka” heavy flamethrower systems. But the NBC Defense Troops will get the full spectrum of weapons with the appearance of the flame-thrower unmanned aerial vehicles, Military Expert Viktor Murakhovskiy told Izvestiya.  “Unmanned aerial vehicles will permit the rapid destruction of targets in urban area, and also targets that are hidden in terrain folds or are located in fortifications…They are needed in order to destroy important facilities in the enemy tactical rear – for example, munitions and fuel dumps, communications centers, and unarmored vehicles, in which command posts are based…”

Precision strikes using incendiary and thermobaric munitions will permit the minimization of collateral damage during the course of combat operations, he pointed out.  “Those unmanned aerial vehicles will be invaluable in house-to-house fighting”, Viktor Murakhovskiy concluded. “They will permit us to avoid the destruction of structures, which are not related to the military infrastructure, and to also reduce losses among the peaceful population and servicemen. It is better to lose two drones or robots than one soldier.Small drones from the latest “Lastochka” Complex have already been tested in the role of strike UAVs at the “Zapad-2021” Strategic Exercises, which were conducted in September of this year. They dropped antipersonnel and hollow-charge bombs on the targets.  Small multicopters, which are capable of dropping small bombs with various warheads on targets, are being developed in Russia today. Those aircraft can hover over a target in order to achieve greater accuracy. The capability for a hollow-charge bomb to end up on a mockup of a tank was confirmed in tests. In the process, the flamethrower drones can be used to destroy and ignite larger facilities…

Image Information:

Image: TOS-2 ‘Tosochka’ Flamethrower.
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/Military/Dress-rehearsal-of-2020-Moscow-Victory-Day-Parade/i-mJSph2x/0/8f6db545/X4/DressRehearsal-20062020-086-X4.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. https://www.vitalykuzmin.net/Copyright-policy

Image: TOS-1A ‘Solntsepek’ Flamethrower.
Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://photos.smugmug.com/Military/Dress-rehearsal-of-2020-Moscow-Victory-Day-Parade/i-g6NjHj7/0/b0e26385/X4/DressRehearsal-20062020-083-X4.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. https://www.vitalykuzmin.net/Copyright-policy

Iran’s Purported Counter-Hijacking Record

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The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps counter-hijacking drills, January 2017.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps counter-hijacking drills, January 2017.

“This statistic indicates a 100 percent success rate of the IRGC operations.”

Since 1984, the U.S. State Department has classified Iran as a leading state sponsor of terrorism.  Iran not only funds proxy militias aimed at destabilizing regional states, but also sponsors many terror groups that engage in bombings, assassinations, and hijackings.  In the official Iranian regime narrative, none of this is terrorism, but rather legitimate “resistance,” which Iranian diplomats argue it is their right to support.  Here, the Iranian government simply takes advantage of the absence of any international consensus definition about what constitutes terrorism.

Post-revolutionary Iran has also experienced terrorism.  In the chaotic first years of the revolution, groups such as the Mujahedin al-Khalq conducted both assassinations and bombings targeting regime officials.  These often maimed and killed innocent civilians, however.  The excerpted article from the Iranian Defense Ministry’s press outlet, Holy Defense News Agency, provides a brief history of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-linked Aviation Protection Corps.  It reports that the Aviation Protection Corps has foiled 128 attempted hijackings over the past 34 years, more than 20 percent of which occurred in the air.  The article lacks clarity however as hijacking and terrorism was a far greater problem in Iran in the 1980s, but the statistics reported in the excerpt did not begin until 1988.  There has been very little mention of domestic hijacking attempts in Iran since then.  If there have been 128 hijacking episodes since 1988, it suggests there may be significant discord and continued attempts at domestic terrorism, even if these go unreported.   That the Aviation Protection Corps now operates on 19 airlines and in 67 airports suggests that the fear of hijacking remains a concern.

Source:

“Khansisazi 128 Mavarad Aghdam beh Havapeymarbayi Tawset Sepah (Neutralization of 128 Attempted Air Hijackings by the Revolutionary Guards),” Holy Defense News Agency (Iranian defense ministry’s press outlet), 29 December 2021. https://defapress.ir/fa/news/496930

Western countries have dubbed it the “Iron Guard”, but in Iran it is referred to as the Aviation Protection Corps. The Aviation Protection Corps is a unit that was formed in January 1988 by the order of Imam Khomeini to the then-commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Since the IRGC took over the responsibility [for aviation security], it has foiled 128 hijacking attempts. Of these, 100 episodes were cases in which the saboteurs were identified and arrested on the ground and 28 included interference and [attempted] air piracy while flying.  This statistic indicates a 100 percent success rate of the IRGC operations in dealing with hijacking. These efforts have come to fruition while the Flight Safety Unit has not given a single martyr in connection with the assigned mission, although it has suffered 77 martyrs from other reasons, such as during the Holy Defense, plane crashes and the defense of the Shrines…. Today, the Aviation Protection Corps has reached such a position due to its 33 years of experience in protecting flight safety that some countries want to have Iran’s experience in this field; the Aviation Protection Corps provides security and safety services to 19 domestic airlines at 67 airports in the country.

Image Information:

Image: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps counter-hijacking drills, January 2017.
Source: Hamshahri Online, https://media.hamshahrionline.ir/d/2021/12/30/4/4627094.jpg
Attribution:

Respected Russian Academic Speculates on War in the Arctic

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“The Northern Fleet can only effectively counter American nuclear submarines in close proximity to its bases on the Kola Peninsula, and further to the East the adversary can operate more or less freely.”  

A recent article in the pro-Kremlin news outlet Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer sees the possibility of a military conflict breaking out in the Barents Sea region of the Arctic Ocean.  The author envisions a scenario emanating from a U.S. Navy freedom of navigation test of the Northern Sea Route (See: “Freedom of the Seas to Be Tested in Arctic?” OE Watch, April 2019). Well-known Russian political scientist Aleksandr Khramchikhin, Deputy Director of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis, is the article’s author.  He has long argued that China is Russia’s primary security threat and that the United States is looking to the Global Strike Command to defeat Russia’s nuclear capability with non-nuclear strikes.  Khramchikhin lacks a military background, but his reasoning and commentary are respected.  Khramchikhin’s description of the Arctic operational environment includes scenarios of engagements that are narrow in their potential locations and application of forces.  Paratroop drops, submarine missile launches, fighter aircraft engagements, and ground force incursions with limited objectives seem to capture the nature of conflict, according the author.  He admits that “imagining a battle in this region is very difficult indeed.”

Source:

Aleksandr Khramchikhin, “Очень холодное поле боя: Война за акватории высоких широт может начаться с провокации на Северном морском пути (A very cold battlefield: A war for the high-latitude waters could begin with a provocation on the Northern Sea Route),” Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer (pro-government weekly focused on Russian military and military-industrial complex), 22 November 2021.  https://vpk-news.ru/articles/64758

Competition for the Arctic, possibly spilling into war over the region, is a subject at least two decades old.  As the Arctic ice melts, interest is growing fast in a region where near-free navigation, unfettered access to offshore hydrocarbons, and military operations are becoming possible. 

Nobody is planning to share out the Arctic lands, since they were claimed long ago.  This is about sharing the waters, where the picture is not quite so clear and the number of potential competitors is limited.  The air forces of Finland…and Sweden…have some potential but these countries do not directly border onto the Arctic Ocean so there is nothing for them to fight over.  Iceland does not have an air force so it has nothing to fight with, even if it wanted to. 

Canada’s forces…are generally somewhat feebler than Finland’s and Sweden’s, and are either stationed in the south of the country (on a similar latitude to Moscow) or are busy in various American wars in the Middle and Near East.  Canadian forces in the Arctic are purely symbolic, without even a proper northern regiment in total and armed with only light weapons.

The Danish Air Force is weaker even than the Canadian and is practically all stationed in Denmark itself, that is, on the Jutland peninsula and adjacent islands.  In Greenland there is only the Sirius ski patrol — 30 men, that is, a single platoon, and also armed with only light weapons.  One or two patrol boats are also based there.

So any involvement by Denmark and Canada in a fight for the Arctic is purely theoretical (regarding the military component of the fight).  Deployment of Canadian and Danish forces to the Arctic is in practice unrealistic — they are too few and anyway do not train for war on ice.  The most that Ottawa and Copenhagen could do is send to the Arctic a few warships (one or two submarines, three or four frigates from Canada and two or three frigates from Denmark) and to airfields in the Arctic — up to 10 or so warplanes (Canadian F-18A/Bs, Danish F-16A/Bs).  You cannot do much fighting with those.

Fairly large groups of US air and ground forces are stationed in Alaska.  They could capture Chukotka, where there are no Russian forces, with ease.  And the USAF could safely block the deployment to there of Russian contingents from Kamchatka, not to mention from the Vladivostok region.  Strange as it may seem, it would be easier for Russia to send Airborne Troops units to Chukotka from the European part of the country.  The Americans could in theory even land forces in Yakutiya (in the Tiksi area, for example).  True, Russian paratroopers could just as successfully turn up on the islands of Canada’s Arctic archipelago, which also have nothing and nobody to defend themselves with.  However, the point is that all these reciprocal assault landings are completely senseless and would create more problems for the protagonists than for the other side.  This is simply because an American expeditionary force in Chukotka and Yakutiya and a Russian one in northern Canada would be at a hopeless dead end with no chance of developing an offensive to the south, and with desperate supply issues.

The only place where potential “fighters for the Arctic” might come into direct contact is northern Europe.  The greater part of Norway’s air force…is stationed in the north of the country and in close proximity to the group of forces of Russia’s Northern Joint Strategic Command on the Kola Peninsula.  The Russian presence is of course more powerful, especially in terms of the two countries’ ability to grow their forces.  Imagining a battle in this region is very difficult indeed.  Between 1941 and 1943 on the entire gigantic Soviet-German front, the Arctic was the sole sector in which the Germans captured nothing, other than a few hundred square kilometers of lifeless tundra.  Imagining that the Norwegians will be more effective and successful than the Germans is, to put it mildly, hard.  It is even harder to imagine how the Norwegians’ NATO allies would come to their aid in the ice and snow.  On the other hand, in the fall of 1944 the Soviet army liberated only the Norwegian border county of Finnmark, and went no further.  The Supreme Command could not see any point in fighting for frozen mountains crisscrossed by fjords.  Modern-day Russia needs them even less.

It is practically impossible to conceive of an armed conflict in the Arctic over a disputed oil or gas field.  Hydrocarbons extraction in the region is a highly complex and expensive business, so no oil or gas company will start work on a deposit unless the legal status and national affiliation are settled.

Much more realistic is an incursion into Russia’s Arctic waters by American nuclear submarines, which from there could in theory fire Tomahawk cruise missiles at numerous military and economic targets in the Urals, Siberia, and the Far East.  The Northern Fleet can only effectively counter American nuclear submarines in close proximity to its bases on the Kola Peninsula, and further to the East the adversary can operate more or less freely.  In that case, the hopes lie with air rather than submarine defenses, that is, with eliminating the Tomahawks rather than their carriers.  But this kind of scenario could materialize only if matters get to the stage of full-scale war between Russia and the United States.

However, a dispute over “freedom of navigation” in peacetime cannot be discounted.  Washington believes that both Russia’s Northern Sea Route and Canada’s Northwest Passage are international waters in which civilian and military ships of any country may sail freely without the need to notify anybody.  A direct conflict between the United States and Canada, close allies, over the Northwest Passage is unlikely, and anyway, it is not greatly needed as a transport route (easier to take the Panama Canal).  The Northern Sea Route, which greatly shortens the time from Europe to Asia and back, is much more in demand.

On more than one occasion, American warships have sailed across the South China Sea, which Beijing regards as its own.  Matters have not yet reached the stage of direct confrontation with ships of the PLA, but it cannot be ruled out.  Similarly, nothing is stopping the Americans from just turning up and sending one or a number of warships through the Northern Sea Route without officially notifying Russia first.  Will Moscow be as restrained as Beijing?  Or will it require the Americans to scrupulously comply with Russian law and in the event of a refusal do what is necessary to head them off, including forcibly?  In that case, how far might the dispute go?  It is possible that Washington will allow us to find out, and very soon:  It badly wants to prove to the whole world and to itself as well that America can still do anything, including what others cannot.