Monthly Archives: January 2022

ISIS Ramps Up Attacks in Iraq’s “Disputed Territories”

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Disputed areas in Iraq.

Disputed areas in Iraq.

“… there is a 100% likelihood that ISIS will launch more attacks on the Peshmerga forces and the Iraqi army in the coming period…”

Recent ISIS attacks in northern Iraq’s “disputed territories” have raised concerns that the group is ramping up disruptive activities and seeking to re-emerge as a key player in the country.  The “disputed territories” lie at the edge of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and control over them is contested by the Erbil-based KRG and the Baghdad-based central government.  When it comes to these territories, the absence of effective security coordination between the two parties has created a security vacuum that ISIS fighters are exploiting, according to several media reports.

The attacks, which have mostly targeted Kurdish villages and Peshmerga checkpoints, have prompted high-level meetings and promises of better coordination between the KRG and the central government.  Kurdish leaders have criticized central government forces for failing to provide them with proper support and equipment, most notably surveillance drones, as noted in the accompanying excerpt from the Saudi news website Independent Arabia.  A second article from Independent Arabia details how the attacks have exposed fissures between the KRG’s two main political factions, one based in Erbil and the other in Sulaymaniyah.  Further entrenching the security vacuum, as explained in the accompanying excerpt from the pan-Arab daily al-Quds, is the likelihood of Shiite factions linked to Iran obstructing central government-KRG coordination, for reasons of their own.  Meanwhile, a Peshmerga official, cited in the excerpted article from the Kurdish media outlet Rudaw, claimed that ISIS is receiving unspecified “financial and logistical support from abroad” and that 200 militants had recently entered Iraq from Syria to carry out attacks on the group’s behalf.

These events are unfolding as Iraq’s political factions continue to squabble over the results of the recent, low-turnout parliamentary election and as the US-led anti-ISIS coalition completed its transition from a combat to an advisory role at the end of 2021.  The uptick in ISIS activities also coincides with the four-year anniversary of what may prove to be a premature declaration of victory over ISIS in Iraq, made by then-president Haidar al-Abadi in December 2017.

Source:

“داعش يصعد هجماته ضد الأكراد 

(ISIS Increases Attacks Against Kurds),” Independent Arabia (Saudi news website), 2 December 2021. https://tinyurl.com/mr4385mn

Peshmerga Minister Shorsh Ismail…criticized the performance of the federal army, saying that “its very slowness in taking measures gave ISIS an opportunity to reorganize itself. The army is unable to fill this vacuum, and the Peshmerga alone is unable to uproot ISIS, as it lacks aerial surveillance capabilities to monitor the group’s movements and the federal state will not provide us with the drones that we have been requesting for a long time, nor will the United States due to the federal government’s rejection.”

Source:

انقسام كردي حول أسباب خسائر البيشمركة أمام هجمات “داعش”

(Kurdish Divisions on Peshmerga Losses from ISIS Attacks),” Independent Arabia (Saudi news website), 7 December 2021. https://tinyurl.com/3awp35wd

Representatives and officials from the two parties that govern the semi-autonomous region, the “Democratic” party led by Massoud Barzani and the “Patriotic Union” led by the late President Jalal Talabani, disagreed on the nature of the problem in military coordination and different decisions, due to conflicting political orientations. The commander of the Patriotic Union Party organizations in the Qarachogh area of Makhmour district accused Barzani’s party of openly “cooperating with ISIS” by “publicly providing supplies to its gunmen,” as he put it, noting that “there are federal forces in Qarachogh Mountain and about a brigade of the Peshmerga led by Sirwan Barzani at the top of the mountain. This prevents any other force from coming to the area. ISIS fighters can be seen comfortably roaming around, and they go to the surrounding villages, despite the presence of 35 mounds held by the brigade there. When the attack occurred, they did not respond, or provide assistance, except for the regiment consisting of locals”… For years, Washington has been leading mediation efforts to unify the divided Peshmerga forces between the two parties, who had concluded an agreement in 2006 to unify the Erbil and Sulaymaniyah administrations, after they fought a civil war, and are still facing difficulties in implementing the terms of the agreement…

According to Kurdish leaders, ISIS militants have recently begun to change their fighting methods and expanded the scope and type of their attacks, moving beyond the stage of just planting explosive devices, killing individuals and displacing others, and now engaging in military operations aimed at asserting their presence, following the recent arrival of a group of fighters coming from Syria, calling themselves “Jund Allah,” which swore allegiance to ISIS.

Source:

“معلومات استخبارية: 200 مسلح لداعش تسللوا إلى الأراضي العراقية قادمين من سوريا

(Intelligence: 200 ISIS militants infiltrated Iraqi territory from Syria),” Rudaw (Kurdish media outlet), 30 November 2021. https://www.rudaw.net/arabic/kurdistan/301120211

The official of the Qarah Tapah – Hamrin II axis of the Peshmerga forces, Major General Mardan Jawshin, announced that they had received intelligence information that a force calling itself “Guardians of Religion,” consisting of 200 militants, “has pledged allegiance to ISIS and infiltrated into Iraqi territory coming from Syria”… regarding the recent increase in ISIS activities… he said that that ISIS is reorganizing its ranks and did not hide his belief that the organization “receives financial and logistical support from abroad,” referring to information that says that “the organization pays salaries to its militants and also pays salaries to the families of its dead…”  Major General Jawshin pointed to the security vacuum between the Iraqi army and the Kurdistan Peshmerga forces as “the reason for the increase in ISIS attacks”… He noted that the ISIS threat had reached a very high level, especially after the arrival of the aforementioned 200 militants from Syria, and said that there is a 100% likelihood that ISIS will launch more attacks on the Peshmerga forces and the Iraqi army in the coming period.

Source:

“تعاون بغداد وأربيل ضد «داعش» بين الضرورة وفقدان الثقة

(Baghdad-Erbil Cooperation Against ISIS Between Cooperation and Loss of Trust),” al-Quds (pan-Arab daily), 11 December 2021. https://tinyurl.com/2p8s5hay

On the fourth anniversary of Baghdad’s declaration of the elimination of ISIS in 2017, Iraqis are following with concern the resurgence of attacks in many Iraqi provinces, despite all the security campaigns to hunt down the group’s remnants… observers fear that the state Shiite forces, which thwarted the Baghdad and Erbil agreement on the normalization of the situation in Sinjar, west of Mosul, will obstruct the agreement to deploy the Peshmerga in the disputed areas. This is especially true given that [Prime Minister] al-Kazemi, who was committed to concluding those agreements with the regional government, may not retain his post in the next government.

Therefore, the mutual accusations of exploiting terrorist organizations such as the Turkish Workers’ Party and ISIS and supporting their presence on Iraqi soil to achieve local and regional political agendas are not limited to Kurdish parties on the one hand, and the Shiites and Turkmen on the other hand, but rather also extends to leaders of the al-Fateh Alliance, which includes pro-Iranian factions, and which considers that the recent attacks in Kirkuk were intentional and motivated by political agendas aimed at providing justifications for the presence of US forces in Iraq, which are scheduled to depart at the end of this year. They also accuse the Kurdish leadership of fabricating or exploiting ISIS attacks in order to seek to restore the region’s control over Kirkuk and the areas disputed between the Baghdad and Erbil governments, after the expulsion of the Peshmerga from those areas in 2017, following the referendum on secession from Iraq.

Image Information:

Image:  Disputed areas in Iraq.
Source: Rafy, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Disputed_areas_in_Iraq.svg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

PLA Practices UAV-Delivered Logistical Support for Airborne Operations

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PLAAF Airborne Z-8 Helicopter (says airborne in white over the wheels) PLAAF Changhe Z-8KA – Zhao.

PLAAF Airborne Z-8 Helicopter (says airborne in white over the wheels)  PLAAF Changhe Z-8KA – Zhao.

The brigade plans to further test combat support functions for the drones and improve logistical sustainment methods for airborne operations to improve combat effectiveness.

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continues to refine the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for tactical resupply through their integration into exercises. As noted in state media outlet Science and Technology Daily, a recent exercise held in the mountainous terrain of central Yunnan province describes a PLA Air Force (PLAAF) Airborne Corps brigade using UAVs to resupply units engaged in a firefight and help evacuate casualties.

The “key point seizure” exercise featured a drone swarm working in concert with the airborne assault team as it maneuvered, resupplying units just as they reached defensive positions determined by a company commander.  Other reporting on the exercise indicated that medium UAVs could deliver 50kg of ammunition.  Participants in the exercise noted that the addition of UAVs greatly simplified logistical resupply for the units.

Exercises in 2020 involving the PLA Joint Logistics Support Force tested delivering munitions to front-line units, and in a separate exercise, providing hot meals and water to border troops in politically sensitive or logistically difficult-to-access areas. (See “PLA Fields New Rapid-Assembly Camp System,” OE Watch, November 2020). The same month the PLAAF Airborne Corps conducted tactical replenishment exercises in Hubei province. (See “China: Improving Capability in Replenishment Operations Through Drones”).

Source:

Peng Yueyun and Qi Yongqiang, “无人机参与助攻空降作战有了新帮手(Drones participate in assists and airborne operations have new helpers),” Science and Technology Daily (State media outlet managed by the PRC Ministry of Science and Technology), 10 December 2021.

http://www.stdaily.com/kjrb/kjrbbm/2021-12/10/content_1237995.shtml

OR

https://web.archive.org/web/20211215134431/http://www.stdaily.com/kjrb/kjrbbm/2021-12/10/content_1237995.shtml

“Begin the attack on the closest position!” Following the command of Li Qilong [李齐龙], the commander of a company under an airborne brigade, members of the unit charged bravely towards the “enemy” position. The unit is engaged in a ‘key point seizure’ exercise in an unidentified location in central Yunnan.

After their initial charge, the enemy was able to suppress the attackers. The lead assault team leader called out “Running low on ammunition! Requesting resupply!”

Standing by the radio in the rear, commander Li marked Ren’s location on the drone control terminal, issuing orders for supplies and a flight path. One minute later, a medium UAV with nearly a hundred kilograms of heavy equipment quickly lifted off and flew toward the battle. Thanks to the timely resupply, the attacking unit could renew their assault.

In this exercise, the brigade embedded transport drones in its support operations, making full use of their advantages in terms of ability to cover long distances quickly, with great precision and in spite of rugged terrain—advantages that traditional resupply methods overland or via large, vulnerable transport lack.

On the front lines of the battle, the firing is intense, and the support team has continued to take casualties even as neither side has gained the advantage.  “Requesting casevac.” A signal from the assisting team came from the radio. In the rear, the rotors of a large UAV spin up under the operated by Chen Yao [陈遥], leader of the integrated support team. Hugging the ground, the drone dodges enemy fire while making its way toward the requested location of the ‘wounded,’ beaming back information to the support team.

“Found them,” Chen Yao said as he put the drone into a rapid descent. With the assistance of ground combatants, one of the simulated casualties was dispatched to the rear.

“Shift your position and prepare to defend!” After pushing the assault, company commander Li Qilong quickly pivoted to defense while coordinating resupply using the UAVs. A few minutes later, as coordinates for defensive positions were issued [to the attacking units], a “swarm” composed of eight quadrotor drones took off in succession, beginning “multi-target precision resupply operations.” Despite being spread out over more than ten kilometers, the “swarm” independently coordinated and accurately positioned themselves to quickly deliver emergency supplies from the rear to the new defensive positions.

Li described the transport drones as “Fast, stealthy and precise,” noting that “[due to their support] the length of the battle was reduced by nearly an hour and the number of casualties has been greatly reduced.”

The brigade plans to test combat support functions for the drones further and improve logistical sustainment methods for airborne operations to improve combat effectiveness.

Image Information:

Image: PLAAF Airborne Z-8 Helicopter (says airborne in white over the wheels) PLAAF Changhe Z-8KA – Zhao. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5c/PLAAF_Changhe_Z-8KA_-_Zhao.jpg
Source: Allen Zhao, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/
Attribution:

Indonesia Casts Wide Net in Terrorism Arrests

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Densus 88 element raid.

Densus 88 element raid.

“Jamaah Islamiyah is estimated to have 6,000 to 7,000 members and sympathizers spread throughout Indonesia in its various branches and is thought to have infiltrated various government and civc institutions.” 

Indonesia’s special counterterrorism detachment, Densus 88, conducted a series of arrests in late November targeting members of Jamaah Islamiyah (JI).  According to the excerpted article from Indonesian site tribunnews.com, which focused on domestic affairs, the scope of the arrests was unprecedented.  The article notes the arrests extended not only to JI itself, but also to the Indonesian Ulema [Islamic Scholars] Council (MUI).

According to the article, JI has up to 7,000 members, some of whom have infiltrated government agencies and civic organizations.  The justification for arresting MUI members, therefore, is not that MUI itself supports JI, but that JI has infiltrated MUI.  The solution to JI’s infiltration of MUI, according to Indonesian officials cited, is for MUI to conduct more robust background checks of members it recruits. Although the recent arrests by Densus 88 of JI members has affected MUI, the latter’s scholars have shown approval for Densus 88.  The article reports that MUI announced that it supports the government’s efforts to root out terrorism and maintain the security and territorial integrity of Indonesia.  By working with the MUI, Indonesian authorities have been able to arrest JI and MUI members suspected of involvement in terrorism without alienating the MUI more broadly.  Indonesian-language kompas.com also reported on 13 December that Densus 88 finally arrested one of the JI-affiliated suspects in the March 2021 bombing of a church in Makassar.

Source:

“Forum Santri Dukung Densus 88 Polri Tangkap Terduga Pelaku Teroris (Santri Forum Supports Detachment 88 Police Arrest Suspected Terrorist), tribunnews.com (Indonesian public affairs focused media outlet), 25 November 2021. https://www.tribunnews.com/nasional/2021/11/25/forum-santri-dukung-densus-88-polri-tangkap-terduga-pelaku-teroris

Densus 88 Anti-terror Police have again arrested suspected terrorists who are affiliated with Jamaah Islamiyah, one of whom is an active member of the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI). Jamaah Islamiyah is estimated to have 6,000 to 7,000 members and sympathizers spread throughout Indonesia in its various branches and is thought to have infiltrated various government and civic institutions.

The head of FOKSI emphasized that Jamaah Islamiyah should not only be viewed from the angle of terror attacks because its movement has entered into a socio-religious institutions in the community. Regarding the arrest of MUI individuals who are suspected of being linked to terrorism, he argues that terrorist network cells have infiltrated various circles and groups. He hoped that MUI would not be permissive to its administrators who support ideas of radicalism and terrorism. FOKSI conveyed that it supports the government’s efforts in eradicating terrorism in order to maintain the integrity of the country because the Indonesian people must receive safety and freedom from radicalism and terrorism.

Source: Densus 88 Tangkap Buron Teroris, Diduga Terkait Bom Gereja Katedral Makassar (Detachment 88 Arrests Fugitive Terrorist, Allegedly Related to Makassar Cathedral Church Bombing), kompas.com (Indonesian language news outlet), 13 December 2021. https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2021/12/13/22194981/densus-88-tangkap-buron-teroris-diduga-terkait-bom-gereja-katedral-makassar

The Special Detachment (Densus) 88 Anti-terror Police arrested a suspected terrorist in South Sulawesi. The Head of Banops Densus 88 Anti-terror Police confirmed the information. He said the arrest was made last week. According to him, the perpetrator was included on the terrorist wanted list (DPO) and suspected of being linked to the bombing at the Makassar Cathedral Church in South Sulawesi on March 28, 2021.

Image Information:

Image: Densus 88 element raid.
Source: multimedianews.polri.go.id
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Densus_88_element_raid.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

Chinese Military Uses AI To Develop World’s Smallest and Most Powerful Coilgun

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“Artificial intelligence can outperform humans in designing futuristic weapons…”

A group of Chinese researchers from the Naval University of Engineering in Wuhan, China, used artificial intelligence (AI) to develop the world’s smallest and most powerful coilgun.  The coilgun, which is about the size of a pistol with a 4.5-inch barrel, contains three battery-powered coils that generate an electromagnetic field.  As described in the following excerpts, published in Hong Kong-based English-language daily South China Morning Post, the kinetic energy of the bullet flying through the barrel has more than twice the energy needed to fire a fatal shot.  The researchers claim the weapon is ideal for counterterrorism and stability operations.  The advantage of the coilgun over a conventional gun is its “adjustable speed and very short response time.”

AI is playing a key role in developing China’s electromagnetic weapons.  The article describes the coilgun as more sophisticated than a typical firearm and too complex for traditional weapons software to handle.  AI, however, can continuously improve an imperfect design through self-learning.  According to the article, “it would have been impossible to achieve this level of performance without using AI in the design process.”  Chinese researchers have also been using AI to develop large-scale electromagnetic weapons, such as railguns, which have a range of “hundreds of kilometers.”  The Chinese navy now has a test facility in which AI is used to develop smart railgun munitions capable of enduring extremely high pressure and intense magnetic fields.

Source:

Stephen Chen, “Chinese Researchers Turn to Artificial Intelligence To Build Futuristic Weapons,” South China Morning Post (Hong Kong’s most prominent online English-language daily), 5 December 2021, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3158522/chinese-researchers-turn-artificial-intelligence-build.

Artificial intelligence can outperform humans in designing futuristic weapons, according to a team of Chinese naval researchers who say they have developed the world’s smallest yet most powerful coilgun.

The prototype weapon developed by professor Zhang Xiao and her team at the Naval University of Engineering in Wuhan has a 12cm (4.5-inch) barrel, about the size of a pistol, which contains three battery-powered coils that generate an electromagnetic field.

This electromagnetic field means that, unlike a conventional gun, the bullet does not touch the sides as it passes through the barrel.

Researchers found the bullet’s kinetic energy as it was could reach almost 150 joules, more than twice the energy needed to fire a fatal shot.

The bullet speed can vary depending on factors such as size and weight, and the scientists said one of the major advantages of using a coil gun was that, unlike a conventional gun, it could be adjusted to fire deadly shots or non-lethal ones.

In a paper published in the Transactions of the China Electrotechnical Society last month, Zhang said the gun had the advantage of “adjustable speed and a very short response time”, adding that it had great potential to be used for counterterrorism and maintaining stability.

The researchers say it would have been impossible to achieve this level of performance without using AI in the design process.

East African Special Forces Commit to Cross-Border Counterterrorism Operations

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Rwandan Defense Force combat lifesaver training.

Rwandan Defense Force combat lifesaver training.

“In order to allow the state of siege to quickly restore peace in Ituri and North Kivu, the deputies supported during the debate the pooling of the Ugandan and DRC armed forces to hunt down the ADF and other negative forces.”

On 1 December, the Rwanda-based website Taarifa Rwanda reported on Uganda and Congo’s joint special forces operations against Allied Defense Forces (ADF) militants in Congo.  ADF is loyal to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).  The article noted that Uganda and Congo believe they are preempting the siege of towns in Ituri and North Kivu, Congo by the militants.  It was also noted that the Congolese National Assembly unanimously voted to support joint special forces operations and that there would be a long and protracted hunt by the two countries’ special forces in the jungle to root out the militants. 

In August, Rwanda itself deployed soldiers to Mozambique to combat ISIS-loyal militants in that country.  This was the first-ever foreign military excursion for Rwanda to coastal East Africa.  More than one month later, according to the excerpted 25 September article in Kenya-based The East African, Rwandan president Paul Kagame pledged to continue counterterrorism operations in Mozambique.  The article noted that Kagame traveled to the epicenter of the insurgency in Cabo Delgado province to address the joint forces of the Mozambique Armed Defence Force and Rwanda Defence Force, stating that Rwandan troops would not leave Mozambique until the security situation was stable.

According to the The East African, Rwanda’s contingent in Mozambique includes 1,000 soldiers, who Mozambican president Filipe Nyusi regards as heroes.  Both Nyusi and Kagame justified the Rwandan troop deployment as necessary to fight the ADF and other ISIS-loyal militants, who Kagame described as a regional threat.  Kagame, for example, noted that the militants included Kenyans, Tanzanians, Congolese, Somalis, and Rwandans.  The two articles demonstrate how East African states are increasingly viewing counterterrorism through a regional lens and how cross-border counterterrorism operations, such as Uganda in Congo or Rwanda in Mozambique, will likely become more common in the region.

Source:

“Uganda-DRC Special Forces Search Bombed ADF Areas,”  taarifa.rw (Rwandan based news website), 1 December 2021.  https://taarifa.rw/uganda-drc-special-forces-search-bombed-adf-areas/

Members of the Congolese national assembly unanimously voted to support joint Ugandan and DRC operations to be more effective in tracking down the ADF, because, according to them, “before the state of siege is equal to during the state of siege.” In order to quickly restore peace in Ituri and North Kivu, the deputies supported during the debate the pooling of the Ugandan and DRC armed forces to hunt down the ADF and other negative forces.

Source: “Kagame says troops will stay put in Cabo Delgado to ensure stability,  theeastafrican.co.ke (Kenya based publication covering regional developments), 25 September 2021.  https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/kagame-says-troops-will-stay-put-in-cabo-delgado-3562164

President Paul Kagame has praised the Rwandan troops deployed to fight insurgents in Cabo Delgado province of Mozambique for their good work fighting insurgents. While addressing the joint force of Mozambican Armed Defence and Rwanda Defence Force on Friday at Cabo Delgado, he also said the soldiers will stay put to stabilize and facilitate the return of displaced civilians to their homes. He was accompanied by his Mozambican counterpart Filipe Nyusi.

The Rwandan contingent is 1,000-soldier strong, made up of the army and the police who recently launched offensives against the insurgents in Cabo Delgado province. Botswana later sent a contingent of 296 and South Africa deployed 1,500 soldiers. President Kagame has defended the deployment, and said his country is footing the deployment bill for now, and the mission will stay on to train the Mozambican army, pointing out that the nature of the threat was regional given that the insurgents not only included Mozambicans, but also Tanzanians, Ugandans, Kenyans, Somalis, Yemenis, Congolese and Rwandan fighters.

Image Information:

Image: Rwandan Defense Force combat lifesaver training.
Source: US Army Africa from Vicenza, Italy
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rwandan_Defense_Force_combat_lifesaver_training,_March_2011_-_Flickr_-_US_Army_Africa.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

Ethiopia Acquiring Emirati and Chinese Drones

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Wing Loong Baiweiflight.

Wing Loong Baiweiflight.

“The Ethiopian government has increased a large-scale recruitment drive in the army in the hopes that a string of purchases of an arsenal of drones and other weapons will be productive.”

On 25 November, the largely neutral Arab-language news service khabar25.com featured an article focused on the role of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in supplying unmanned aerial systems (UAS) to Ethiopia.  According to the article, Ethiopia’s interest in UAS from the UAE accelerated after the war began in November 2020 and the Ethiopian army faced greater resistance from the Tigrayan rebels than expected.  The article suggests that supplying the Ethiopian army has become more difficult for the UAE since the Tigrayan rebels captured two bases in Aksum and Samara in the northern Tigray region, leaving the military base in Harar, south of Addis Ababa, as another option to supply the Ethiopian army.

However, the article emphasizes that several other countries are providing UAS to Ethiopia in addition to the UAE.  For example, the article reports that China’s Wing Loong UAS was seen at the Harar military base.  Additionally, the Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation on 8 October featured an Amharic-language interview of Ethiopian General Yilma Merdassa, who was seated near a model of the Wing Loong.  General Merdassa acknowledged that Ethiopia had received the UAS from China. The article also reports that Turkish drones are among the UAE’s purchases,UAS are a key part of the Ethiopian government’s last ditch efforts to ward off the Tigrayan rebels before they rebels approach the country’s capital, Addis Ababa.

Source:

“الجسر الجوي الإماراتي يقدم دعما عسكريا للحكومة الإثيوبية (The UAE air bridge provides military support to the Ethiopian government),” khabar25.com (Arabic-language news outlet focusing on current military and technology affairs from a neutral perspective), 25 November 2021. https://www.khabar25.com

Satellite images show that the UAE is providing significant support to the Ethiopian army in the fight against the Tigrayan forces.The UAE opened an air bridge to provide military support to the Ethiopian government in its war against forces in the northern Tigray region.Between September and November, there were more than 90 flights between the UAE and Ethiopia, many of which deliberately concealed where they took off and where they landed.

Flight maps and satellite images show aircraft recently arriving from the Sweihan base in Abu Dhabi, UAE, to the Harar Meda base, south of the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. The footage shows a Chinese-made Wing Loong drone, the first such aircraft ever to be documented at Ethiopian military bases.

The images also reveal that bases in Samara and Aksum were run over following clashes with Tigray forces, who said this week that they are about 200 kilometers from Addis Ababa. In recent weeks, the Ethiopian government has increased a large-scale recruitment drive in the army in the hopes that a string of purchases of an arsenal of drones and other weapons will be productive. The Ethiopian government signed a military cooperation agreement with Turkey in August, amid reports that it wanted to deploy drones to the war.

Source:  “የመሻገሪያ ዘመን -ሜ/ጀነራል ይልማ መርዳሳ የኢፌዲሪ አየር ኃይል ዋና አዛዥ(Maj. Gen. Yilma Merdasa, Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force ),” Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation (an Ethiopian government-owned public service broadcaster), 8 September 2021. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOc1kBbEkvo

Image Information:

Image: Wing Loong Baiweiflight.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wing_Loong.jpg
Attribution: CC x 3.0

Mozambique: Foreign Mercenaries Not Enough To Beat Terrorism

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Unlike the Russian mercenaries, Rwandan soldiers, such as the ones depicted here during a training exercise, made significant progress against terrorists in Mozambique.

Unlike the Russian mercenaries, Rwandan soldiers, such as the ones depicted here during a training exercise, made significant progress against terrorists in Mozambique.

“The failed intervention in Mozambique by the Russian private military company, the Wagner Group, took place amid serious disagreements between the company and the Mozambican military.”

Mozambique’s northernmost province, Cabo Delgado, has been under attack by Islamist insurgents since 2017.  Initially the government declined offers of outside help by other nations, instead depending on its own military, which was poorly equipped and not well trained in counterterrorism or counterinsurgency tactics.  As the excerpted article from the South African think tank Institute for Security Studies notes, Mozambique turned to Russia for help after two years of disastrous results. In September 2019, Russian military contractor Wagner Group arrived in Cabo Delgado.

The terms of the agreement with Wagner Group were never made public.  However, the Russian mercenaries were only in Cabo Delgado for about two months.  Apparently they wanted to bomb various locations where terrorists were purportedly located.  This strategy was at odds with what their Mozambican counterparts had planned.  Also, during their short time in Mozambique, a number of the Russians were killed, reportedly including some who were beheaded during botched missions.  The abrupt departure of Wagner Group personnel has been attributed to their failures and possibly confusion sown by the discord between the Wagner Group and Mozambican military. Mozambique next turned to the South Africa-based Dyck Advisory Group (DAG).  In April 2020 DAG arrived in civilian helicopters converted into gunships.  While helpful, it was unable to stem extremist attacks.  One year later DAG was gone and replaced by trainers and advisers from a South Africa-Dubai consortium. However, as the article explains, it was not until Mozambique finally agreed to let foreign troops, beginning with a relatively large contingent from Rwanda, assist in the fight, that real progress was made against the insurgents, including dislodging them from their bases. While it is not clear why Wagner Group and DAG were not more effective, it appears that that unlike the mercenaries, trained militaries from other nations made swift and significant gains against the Islamists.

Source:

Borges Nhamirre, “Will foreign intervention end terrorism in Cabo Delgado?” Institute for Security Studies (a South African think tank) 5 November 2021. https://issafrica.org/research/policy-brief/will-foreign-intervention-end-terrorism-in-cabo-delgado

The failed intervention in Mozambique by the Russian private military company, the Wagner Group, took place amid serious disagreements between the company and the Mozambican military.

Faced with the inability of government forces to stop the insurgency, even with private military support, liberation struggle veterans in Maconde-dominant districts of Cabo Delgado formed local militias to fight the insurgents. The contribution of the militias has not yet been studied in depth, but it seems that they were useful in blocking the insurgents’ advance towards districts such as Mueda and Muidumbe.

Rwanda’s quick achievements were due to better combat experience, but also better equipment, which allowed them great superiority over the insurgents. While the insurgents’ bases had already been identified by the Mozambican military, they did not have the capability to dislodge the insurgents. The attempts that had been carried out in the past had resulted in failures and in some cases, tragedies.

Despite progress in combating violent extremism in Cabo Delgado, there is still a long way to go. After more than a decade of the radicalisation of local populations and a multi-year armed insurgency, three months of foreign intervention is just the start of the process towards building peace and stability in Cabo Delgado.

Image Information:

Image: Unlike the Russian mercenaries, Rwandan soldiers, such as the ones depicted here during a training exercise, made significant progress against terrorists in Mozambique.
Source: Sgt. Heather Doppke/SETAF/Flickr, https://www.flickr.com/photos/usarmyafrica/48640726723/
Attribution: CC BY 2.0

China Continues To Beef Up Border and Coastal Defense

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“…the international situation is complex and changeable. Border and coastal defenses face security threats and challenges from all quarters and in various forms.”

In October a group of Chinese experts met to discuss their views on China’s progress and efforts to build up the border and coastal defense infrastructure.  The following article, published in the official newspaper of the People’s Liberation Army Jiefangjun Bao, offers an interesting overview of their thoughts regarding future expectations.  China first launched its border and coastal defense infrastructure project in 1996.  According to the article, the country has since gone from “having nothing to having something.”  It went from “not being centralized and complete to being scalable and systematic.” 

There are reportedly 18,639 miles of border and coastal defense duty routes.  Blockades and video monitoring cover key areas.  China has stationed hundreds of thousands of militia forces along the border and coastal defense frontlines.  They have added transportation support facilities including duty roads, bridges, and docks, focused on connecting border villages to the larger border security infrastructure.   

Part of the infrastructure buildup of China’s border and coastal defense includes an increased capacity to conduct information-driven operations (informationization).  China has built several thousand monitoring and control stations and centers along key areas in border and coastal defense.  It has also laid nearly 6,213 miles of transmission lines.  A portion of the border and coastal areas now also includes video monitoring and a “control network for ‘vertical connection and horizontal cohesion.’”

In coming years, China will likely push to automate its border and coastal defense capability, through the “intelligentization” of its processes.  A senior engineer, cited in the article, explained that he hopes to shape a “smart chain” that will use new-generation information technologies, such as big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things, to discover, report, make decisions, handle, and evaluate border and coastal defense situations to enhance the three-dimensional smart management and control capabilities.

Source:

Pan Di, “筑起坚不可摧的钢铁防线 ——军地共话合力推进边海防基础设施建设 (Building an Indestructible Steel Defensive Line- Joint Military-Civil Promotion of Border, Coastal Defense Infrastructure Building),” Jiefangjun Bao (official newspaper of the People’s Liberation Army), 13 October 2021, http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2021-10/13/content_300707.htm

China is a major border and coastal defense country. Chairman Xi profoundly pointed out that order and coastal defense work is a major matter for national security and is related to the overall national security and developmental situation.

… since the launch of border and coastal defense infrastructure building in 1996 with unified planning on land and at sea, we have built a large number of duty transport, physical barrier, and informationized management and control facilities.

Liu Jun explained that China has now built more than 30,000 kilometers of border and coastal defense duty routes, with blockades and video monitoring essentially covering key management and control segments. It has taken the first steps in constructing a “three-in-one” management and control system including human, material, and technical defense. It has built a solid defensive line along its vast land and maritime borders.

In recent years, on border and coastal defense frontlines, hundreds of thousands of militia forces are stationed all year round, and their reconnaissance and monitoring, rapid response, and emergency handling capabilities have steadily improved. With the completion of a large number of transportation support facilities such as duty roads, bridges, and docks, many border villages have been connected to roads and offshore islands connected to navigation routes, thus further consolidating the foundation for the development of industries with special advantages such as border trade, cross-border tourism, and island development.

“The continuous advancement of border and coastal defense infrastructure building is the result of joint efforts by the Party, government, military, and police. According to an arrangement made by the Third National Border Defense Work Conference in 1994, a border and coastal defense infrastructure building system was launched in 1996 on the basis of organizing pilot projects.

…a “five-in-one” border management structure with the Party committee providing direction, the government running overall coordination, the military serving as a backbone, the police taking charge of administration, and the people as a foundation, making the iron wall of border and coastal defense even more impenetrable.

In recent years, China’s border and coastal defense infrastructure has intensified its informatization efforts, building several thousand monitoring and control stations and centers along important sections for border and coastal defense and laying nearly 10,000 kilometers of transmission lines. A portion of border and coastal areas have formed a video monitoring and control network for “vertical connection and horizontal cohesion.” Li Guangwei, senior engineer at the Air Force Research Academy, is full of hope for the prospects of smart border and coastal defense. He hopes to shape a “smart chain” in which the whole process of discovering, reporting, making decisions, handling, and evaluating border and coastal defense situations through the application of new-generation information technologies such as big data, cloud computing, the Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence, breaks through data barriers between the military and civilian sectors to enhance three-dimensional smart management and control capabilities for border and coastal defense.”

COVID-19 Diverting Resources from Terrorism Fight in the Sahel

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Diversion of funds to fight COVID-19 has left the Burkinabe military with fewer resources to combat terrorism.

Diversion of funds to fight COVID-19 has left the Burkinabe military with fewer resources to combat terrorism.

“The Sahel is reeling under escalating Islamist attacks. Is Africa’s fight against the coronavirus eating up resources urgently needed to combat insurgency?”

The COVID-19 pandemic may have weakened security in the Sahel, according to the excerpted article from German international media outlet Deutsche Welle.  With so many resources devoted by Sahelian nations to combating the pandemic, fewer resources have been available to combat terrorist groups.  Those resources are more than just financial; they include soldiers who regional governments have pressed into public health services.  It is uncertain if the terrorist groups are aware of, or have been able to take advantage of the current crisis but, according to the article, armed terrorist attacks have increased in Mali and Burkina Faso.

The situation has become so bad in Mali that there is concern the government might fall to Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda–linked militant group whose territory has been steadily expanding.  In Burkina Faso, Nadiagou became the first village in the country to fall to armed Islamists.  A man who escaped the attack said the two police officers guarding the village fled because they could not do anything, a sentiment echoed on a larger scale by a retired Senegalese general who explained that the limited capacities of national militaries in the region are allowing terrorist groups to claim additional territory.  Additional factors, such as the flow of weapons from Libya and interethnic tensions, also fuel the growth of terrorist groups.  African heads of state, at the recent Dakar Forum for Peace and Security, discussed the need for foreign aid to fight COVID in the Sahel and free funds to build up militaries to combat the growing presence of Islamist terrorist groups.  

Source:

Philipp Sandner, “Has the COVID pandemic amplified insecurity in the Sahel?” Deutsche Welle (German international media organization), 8 December 2021. https://www.dw.com/en/has-the-covid-pandemic-amplified-insecurity-in-the-sahel/a-60058754

The Sahel is reeling under escalating Islamist attacks. Is Africa’s fight against the coronavirus eating up resources urgently needed to combat insurgency?

African economies were massively hit by the pandemic, he told DW in Dakar where he was attending the forum, adding that “this economic impact also had consequences on the capacities of African countries to design counter-terrorism strategies.

African heads of state meeting earlier this week at the Dakar Forum for Peace and Security called for easier access to international funding and stronger strategic support to combat Islamist groups.

“They were two [police officers] against many. Even if they had tanks, they couldn’t have done anything,” he said describing how easy it was for the armed group to captured Nadiagou, the first village in Burkina Faso to fall into the hands of Islamists.

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Image: Diversion of funds to fight COVID-19 has left the Burkinabe military with fewer resources to combat terrorism.
Source: Staff Sgt. Candace Mundt/AFRICOM?Flickr, https://www.flickr.com/photos/usarmyafrica/26442708444/in/photolist-GhDMYh-GL3WpA-GhDMX5-GL3WoU-GnXmmQ-GnXmkh-GL3WpW-GL3WqC-GnXmn1-GnXmmu-GL3Wpq-23AcdJG-GhDMXA-8D3wYX-CP9EA4-GG6bze-8D3wVx-8D3wWx-CP9bDc-8D3wX4-26817Lk-CP9bCv-88YSaH-23jUwH1-CP9bCa-CP9bCF-88YRWR-7PymMU-8DEsaq-7PykYy-8uNPNs-hS2vPx-8uKMLK-7PygwA-7PunfD-7Puid2-7Pyg4f-8938Rj-7Pyhrd-hS2vGD-8937H1-hS2vLB-hS2vBi-8uNPLJ-88YTs6-hS2vGZ-89368d-8DEqJQ-8uKLGt-Svwee6
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Iran and Syria Seek To Jumpstart Economic Ties

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Syrian and Iranian officials meet in Tehran, December 2021.

Syrian and Iranian officials meet in Tehran, December 2021.

“By [our] resistance, the aggressor superpowers can be humiliated.”

The relationship between Iran and Syria runs deep. Syria was the only Arab state to support Iran during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.  There is also sectarian solidarity between Syria’s ruling Assad family and Shi’ite Iran.  Syria’s minority Alawi sect, to which the Assads belong, is an offshoot of Shi’ism. The excerpted article from Iran’s newspaper of record Ettelaat, suggests that Iranian officials, if not their Syrian counterparts as well, expect to enhance their relationship in coming years.  The article quotes Ali Akbar Velayati, Iran’s foreign minister between 1981 and 1997, who has since served as the principle foreign policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei with regard to his meeting with Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad.  Velayati is perhaps Iran’s second-most important foreign relations figure after Khamenei himself, likely wielding greater influence than current Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

Velayati highlighted joint Iran-Hezbollah-Russia assistance to Syria, and condemned the United States and other countries that have supported Syrian rebels.  The Velayati meeting was just one of many that Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad had in Tehran.  He also met with Iranian Transport and Urban Development Minister Rostam Qassemi.  Qassemi complained that the promise of fruitful bilateral economic cooperation was still unfulfilled and called on the Syrians to implement previous memorandums of understanding.  Both Velayati and Qassemi also said that both countries need to do more to expand private sector cooperation.  Mekdad, for his part, promised that Syria would welcome Iranian assistance in Syria’s reconstruction. Given the dominance of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated companies in Iran’s construction industries, any Iranian involvement in Syria’s reconstruction would likely further Tehran’s influence rather than reduce it.  This will complicate debates in the West with regard to reconstruction as many countries will be hesitant or unable to contribute to international efforts to help Syria recover if such funds go to sanctioned entities.

Source:

“Takid bar Tawse’ah ravabet-e rahbardi Iran va Suriyeh dar Didr Velayati ba Faisal Mekdad (Faisal Mekdad Meeting with Velayati Emphasized Development of Strategic Relations between Iran and Syria),” 8 December 2021. https://www.ettelaat.com/?p=595024

The Advisor to the Supreme Leader on International Affairs [Ali Akbar Velayati] met with Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad to discuss bilateral relations and international and regional issues. In addition to Ali Akbar Velayati, [Syrian] Deputy Foreign Minister Bashir Jaafari and others from his country attended the meeting which emphasized the strategic relation between the two countries. Velayati stressed the need for a special focus in order to promote and expand Iran-Syria ties, and said, “The path of resistance and confrontation with the enemies in Syria continues. The unity of the member states of the Resistance Front has led in recent years [to success] in this very sensitive region that has been coveted by the United States and Britain in the past, and shows it is possible to take effective, successful, and unprecedented measures against the continued domination of foreigners. He added, “The useful and fortuitous results of the formation of the resistance have given hope to the Islamic world that by resistance, the aggressor superpowers can be humiliated.

Velayati reminded, “What the Syrian president [Bashar al-Assad] has done with the support of Iran, Russia, Lebanese Hezbollah and most importantly the brave Syrian nation in recent years against the cowardly invasion of Syria by some 80 countries centered upon the United States, the Zionists and some reactionary countries in the region, is unique. Undoubtedly, the Resistance Front will achieve the final victory, God willing.

Image Information:

Image: Syrian and Iranian officials meet in Tehran, December 2021.
Source: Fars News Agency
https://media.farsnews.ir/Uploaded/Files/Images/1400/09/17/14000917000452_Test_PhotoN.jpg
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