Category Archives: Global Operational Environment

Articles whose main focus is topics pertaining to Global Operational Environment.

Argentina Gets Closer to China-Led Economic and Multilateral Institutions

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Argentina and China sign agreements to construct critical infrastructure such as nuclear power plants.

Argentina and China sign agreements to construct critical infrastructure such as nuclear power plants.

“The ambassador in Beijing assured that they will help Argentina get closer to the objective of its ‘formal entry’ into the BRICS.”

The accompanying passages suggest that Argentina’s political leadership would like to move the country away from Western economic and multilateral institutions, which often demand strenuous and politically challenging macroeconomic reforms and structural adjustments.  Meanwhile, China has presented the most obvious alternative for Argentina given that the two countries have shared a robust economic relationship for many years.  The leading edge of that relationship was always development-oriented in nature.  Now, Argentina has displayed a willingness to embed itself in economic and multilateral institutions with a major Chinese presence.  Argentina will participate as a special guest at future BRICS Summit gatherings.  It will also apply to join the organization’s New Development Bank, according to Argentina’s left-leaning financial newspaper Ámbito Financiero.  The country has stated its desire to permanently join the BRICS grouping in the future, for which Beijing has expressed initial support.  Other events have also signaled a rapidly changing strategic environment in Argentina, such as the recent signing of the Memorandum of Understanding to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative, says leading Spanish-language wire service Agencia EFE.  Argentina’s successful application to the Asian Infrastructure Bank in March 2021; China’s financing of nuclear power plants in Argentina; and Argentina’s desire to purchase the JF-17 Chinese-built fighter jet are just a few other recent examples that show China’s burgeoninginfluence in the country. 

Sources:

“Argentina participará en la próxima cumbre del grupo de los BRICS (Argentina will participate in the next summit of the BRICS group),” Ámbito Financiero (Argentina’s left-leaning financial newspaper), 7 May 2022.   https://www.ambito.com/argentina/participara-la-proxima-cumbre-del-grupo-los-brics-n5434293

Xi Jinping’s invitation… is extremely important, especially because of Argentina’s interest in joining the forum that has brought together Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa… the ambassador in Beijing assured that they will help Argentina get closer to the objective of its ‘formal entry’ into the BRICS.

Source:  “Argentina formaliza la adhesión a la iniciativa china de las nuevas rutas de la seda (Argentina formalizes adherence to the Chinese Belt and Road Intiative),” Agencia EFE (the leading Spanish-language wire service), 11 May 2022.   https://www.infobae.com/america/mexico/2022/05/11/como-el-cartel-de-sinaloa-y-el-cjng-han-innovado-la-produccion-de-cocaina-en-colombia/ 

Argentina formalized… the Memorandum of Understanding that it signed with China in February, which seals the adhesion of the South American country to the Belt and Road Initiative…. The document foresees cooperation projects in connectivity infrastructure, such as routes, railways, bridges, civil aviation, ports, energy and telecommunications…. The agreement will have a term of three years and will be automatically renewed for equal periods of three years, unless one of the parties gives notice that it terminates it at least three months in advance.

Image Information:

Image caption:  Argentina and China sign agreements to construct critical infrastructure such as nuclear power plants.
Source:  https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Argentina_y_China_firman_contratos_para_construcci%C3%B3n_de_cuarta_y_quinta_central_nuclear_01.jpg
Attribution:  CC BY-SA 2.0

India Cancels Plans To Purchase Russian Equipment

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SU-30MKI India.

SU-30MKI India.

“The ongoing conflict in Russia and Ukraine has also resulted in delays in the supply of spares for the fighter aircraft fleet.”

The Make in India initiative initially encouraged the Indian Armed Forces to gradually purchase domestic weapons or equipment whenever possible, before establishing import ban lists in the past year (see: “India Orders More Domestically Produced Self-Propelled Artillery System,” OE Watch, #3 2022).  However, as the accompanying excerpted articles report, Russia’s war in Ukraine is forcing the Indian government to reexamine certain acquisitions and upgrades for the armed forces that could further boost the Make in India initiative.  The article from the independent English-language newspaper The Hindu reports Minster of Defense Rajnath Singh’s comments in early May 2022 after the government cancelled plans to acquire and upgrade two systems from Russia.  He mentions that the government is drawing lessons from the war in Ukraine to become more self-sufficient and acknowledges that there will be short-term economic issues while becoming less dependent on imports.  The article from the English-language independent news magazine India Today reports that India’s Air Force cancelled a purchase of 48 Mi-17 V5 helicopters from Russia in support of the Make in India initiative.  Government officials claimed that “the decision to withdraw the tender for the 48 helicopters was taken long before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and that the Indian Air Force is now going to support an Indian effort for a helicopter. The article from the English-language daily Live Mint reports on the Indian government’s decision to cancel a plan to upgrade a number of its Su-30 fighters just days after cancelling the purchase of Mi-17s.  The article notes that the government made the decision because of the war in Ukraine and the Make in India initiative.  It also notes that the Indian Air Force had planned to upgrade 85 Su-30s with better radar and electronic warfare capabilities.  The article mentions that there are delays for spare parts for the fighters and that, while India has stocked up on enough for now, “it is expected that the supply of these spares and other equipment may become an issue in near future.”  Overall, India did not say that it would stop looking to Russia to acquire or upgrade systems, but the war in Ukraine is causing India to reassess how much it will depend on the Russian defense industry.

Sources:

“Self-reliance vital to protect nation’s sovereignty: Rajnath Singh,” The Hindu (independent English-language newspaper), 5 May 2022. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/self-reliance-vital-to-protect-nations-sovereignty-rajnath-singh/article65385058.ece

…Self-reliance in defence is essential not only for building domestic capacity but also safeguarding the sovereignty of the country, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said on Thursday…

…Talking of ‘Aatmanirbharta’ in defence, Mr. Singh said our past experiences had taught us that India could not depend on imports for its security. “Recent conflicts, especially the situation in Ukraine, have told us that not just defence supplies, but commercial contracts are also prone to be affected when it comes to national interests,” he stated.

In such a situation, self-reliance was necessary not only for building domestic capacity, but also for maintaining our independence, Mr. Singh said…“We may not even find it economical in the beginning. But we are very clear about this, that in the middle and long-term, it will help in building the foundation of a robust industrial base not only in the defence sector, but in every sphere of the industry,” he asserted…

Source: Manjeet Negi, “To boost Make in India, IAF cancels plans to buy 48 Mi-17 choppers from Russia,” India Today (English-language independent news magazine), 16 April 2022. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/make-in-india-iaf-mi-17-choppers-russia-1938341-2022-04-16

Aiming to support the Make in India initiative in the Defence programme of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Indian Air Force has decided to cancel plans to buy 48 more Mi-17 V5 helicopters from Russia.

Top government sources told India Today that the decision to withdraw the tender for the 48 helicopters that was taken much before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out and has nothing to do with the global scenario.

“The tender for 48 Mi-17V5 helicopters has been withdrawn in view of the push for indigenisation. The IAF would now be supporting an indigenous programme for helicopters,” the sources said.

Source: “India shelves ₹35,000 cr plan to upgrade Su-30 fighter fleet amid Russia-Ukraine war,” Live Mint (online version of the financial English-language daily newspaper), 8 May 2022. https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-shelves-rs-35-000-cr-plan-to-upgrade-su-30-fighter-fleet-amid-russia-ukraine-war-11652006926134.html

Several factors have shelved the Indian Air Force’s plan to upgrade its Su-30 MKI fighter aircraft fleet. The factors include the war between Russia and Ukraine and current policy of Make-in-India of the Indian government.

 IAF had planned to equip the Su-30 aircraft with more powerful radars and the latest electronic warfare capabilities to make it more powerful as per the latest standards.

IAF was planning to upgrade 85 of their planes up to the latest standards in collaboration with the Russians and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited. The plan has been put on the backburner for now in view of the present situation…

The ongoing conflict in Russia and Ukraine has also resulted in delays in the supply of spares for the fighter aircraft fleet…

Sources said even though the spares situation is manageable at the moment and expected to remain so in the near future as India had stocked them up in a considerable amount post the Uri surgical strikes and the ongoing China conflict. However, it is expected that the supply of these spares and other equipment may become an issue in near future…

Image Information:

Image: SU-30MKI India.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SU-30MKI_India.jpg
Attribution: Public Domain

Kazakhstan Cancels Soviet-Era Parade To Focus on Combat Readiness

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Kazakhstan Republican Guard.

Kazakhstan Republican Guard.

“Units of the Air Assault Forces worked out tactical methods of combat operation in urban areas during the main stage of the complex, interdepartmental strategic command and staff exercise ‘Brave Resistance – 2022“

Like Russia, Kazakhstan commemorates the Soviet Union’s victory over Germany in World War II.  A few weeks before 9 May, the Kazakh government announced that it planned to cancel its Victory Day military parade for the third year in a row.  The government also cancelled the parade in 2020 and 2021 because of the global pandemic.  While some Russian media speculated that the Kazakh government’s decision was a sign that it wanted to move away from Russian influence because of the war in Ukraine, the accompanying excerpted articles provide insight into the real reasons behind the Kazakh government’s decision.

The article from the news website Tengri News reports that the government cancelled the parade “because of the budget as well as the need to resolve other issues,” which included “combat readiness” and “the execution of tasks to ensure security and defense of the state and military facilities.”  The article from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Defense website Sarbaz reports on how Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces carried out the “Brave Resistance – 2022” exercise in the city of Almaty as part of its combat readiness effort.  The article notes that the exercise involved a battalion tactical group with multiple support units as well as other agencies in an urban operation.  The article from the semi-independent newspaper Vremya and the second article from Tengri News report that the exercise took place in multiple regions and involved similar circumstances.  While the government of Kazakhstan has stated that it would not recognize the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, it has stayed neutral in the war in Ukraine.  As Kazakhstan faces a difficult economic outlook this year, it likely looked to cut costs where possible while not sacrificing the readiness of its armed forces.

Sources:

Meirim Smaiyl, “Почему не будет военного парада, ответили в Минобороны (The Ministry of Defense answered why there will not be a military parade),” Tengri News (news website in Kazakhstan), 13 April 2022. https://tengrinews.kz/kazakhstan_news/pochemu-ne-budet-voennogo-parada-otvetili-v-minoboronyi-466522/

…“There are no plans to hold a military parade in Kazakhstan in 2022 because of the budget as well as the need to resolve other issues. In particular, the priority to have the required level of combat readiness and mobility of the Armed Forces, and the execution of task to ensure security and defense of the state and military facilities,” said the ministry’s press service…

Last year, because of the epidemiological situation in the country, the military parade in honor of Defender of the Fatherland Day and Victory Day was also cancelled.

Source: “Активная фаза учения «Батыл Тойтарыс – 2022» прошла в Алматинской области (The active phase of the exercise “Brave Resistance – 2022” has started in the Almaty Oblast),” Sarbaz (news website of Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Defense),” 15 April 2022.

https://sarbaz.kz/army/aktivnaya-faza-ucheniya-batyl-toytarys-%E2%80%93-2022-proshla-v-almatinskoy-oblasti-221041839/

Units of the Air Assault Forces worked out tactical methods of combat operation in urban areas during the main stage of the complex, interdepartmental strategic command and staff exercise “Brave Resistance – 2022”…

According to the exercise plan, a battalion tactical group made up of an air assault battalion, reinforced by reconnaissance, artillery, engineering and sapper units, and UAV crews, in coordination with personnel from Special Operations Forces and the National Guard, carried out the task of freeing an area captured by a group of bandits…

Source: Langa Chereshkayte, “Сложные условия (Difficult conditions),” Vremya (semi-independent Russian-language newspaper in Kazakhstan), 18 April 2022. https://time.kz/articles/reporter/2022/04/18/slozhnye-usloviya

The exercise “Brave Resistance – 2022” with live firing took place at the Oymash training facility of the Aqtau garrison. According to the plan of the exercise, naval infantry was tasked with freeing a settlement from an armed group…

Additionally, during the tactical portion of the exercise, units of the border guards and the armed forces carried out combat training to strengthen the state border in order to prevent reserves from penetrating…

Source: “Военные учения прошли в Жамбылской области (A military exercise took place in the Zhambyl Oblast),” Tengri News (news website in Kazakhstan), 15 April 2022. https://tengrinews.kz/kazakhstan_news/voennyie-ucheniya-proshli-v-jambyilskoy-oblasti-466547/

…It is noted that during the exercise of soldiers in the Matybulak training facility in the Zhambyl region, the situation was simulated to take in account the experience of modern armed conflicts, in which illegally armed groups deployed in mountainous border areas…

…motorized rifle and tank units eliminated the enemy, while National Guard personnel cleared out the area…

Image Information:

Image: Kazakhstan Republican Guard.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kazakhstan_Republican_Guard.JPEG
Attribution: Public Domain

Turkish-Made Bayraktar TB2 Drones Play Important Role in Ukraine

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Bayraktar TB2.

Bayraktar TB2.

“The achievements of the TB2 drones are the first signs of the impact of unmanned systems in naval warfare… drone warfare will be an integral part of naval warfare in the near future.”

Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones are playing a force multiplier role for Ukraine in its war with Russia.  According to several Turkish defense experts, the way Ukrainian forces have used these drones in the current conflict are marking new chapters in the use of drones in naval warfare and possibly in anti-submarine warfare.  While it is too early to tell if TB2s are changing the trajectory of the conflict, they have given Ukrainian forces a significant advantage and have had at least a psychological effect on both sides so far.

Turkey’s TB2 drones came under the spotlight early in the conflict when the Ukrainian military released video footage of them destroying Russian tanks.  More recently, the TB2 emerged as a key tool in the sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva, although it is not exactly clear what role it played.  As the first accompanying passage from Nikkei Asia notes, one theory claims that Ukrained used TB2s to distract the Moskva when it launched anti-ship missiles.  Another theory claims Ukraine used TB2s to pinpoint the exact location of the cruiser in the Black Sea, enabling precision strikes against it.

In early May, the Ukrainian Air Force staged a raid on the Russian force occupying Ukraine’s strategic Snake Island.  TB2 drones played an important role by waging a defense-suppression campaign over the island, knocking out at least three air defense systems, two Russian patrol boats, and a landing craft along the shore.  As the second passage by Turkish naval expert Tayfun Özberk notes, the attack on Russian patrol boats and a landing craft marked the first successful neutralization of naval vessels by an uncrewed system.  Özberk claims this is the start of a new era in the use of drones in naval warfare.  During this same raid, the TB2 drones also destroyed a Russian Mi-8 helicopter.  As the final passage from an interview with Turkish defense expert Özgür Ekşi notes, this may also suggest a new chapter in military doctrine.  Ekşi claims that if the Mi-8 helicopter was hovering in the air when it was hit, this would indicate that the TB2 drone can also calculate the height/altitude of targets, adding a third dimension to its usage.  He also claimed this would be a game changer in anti-submarine warfare, since anti-submarine helicopters working to detect and track submarines would be at risk of an attack by a smart munition from a drone while hovering in air.

Sources:

Sinan Tavşan, “Turkish-made drones likely involved in Moskva sinking,” Nikkei Asia, 18 April 2022. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Turkish-made-drones-likely-involved-in-Moskva-sinking

“Reports that Turkish TB2 drones were involved in the attack either as a distraction for Moskva or as location spotter of Moskva are both quite possible,” said Can Kasapoglu, director of the security and defense studies program at the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), Turkish think tank.

Source: Tayfun Özberk, “Russian Serna-Class LCU Becomes the New Victim of TB2 Drone,” Naval News, 8 May 2022. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/05/russian-serna-class-lcu-becomes-the-new-victim-of-tb2-drone/

TB2s’ recent attack on the Raptor-class patrol boats on 02 May 2022 marked the first successful neutralization of naval vessels by an uncrewed system. The assault on the Serna class landing craft marks the second one. In both attacks, TB2s used MAM-L smart munitions manufactured by the Turkish Roketsan company.

…

The achievements of the TB2 drones are the first signs of the impact of unmanned systems in naval warfare.  Unmanned systems that provide not only ISR support but also strike operations will provide tactical flexibility to decision-makers on the naval battlefield.  Because such systems can conduct missions without risking human lives, and thanks to their capabilities that are growing daily, drones will become a suitable replacement for manned systems.  As a result, drone warfare will be an integral part of naval warfare in the near future.

Source:  Tolga Özbek chats with Özgür Ekşi, “TB2 Ukrayna’da gemi ve helikopter vurdu, sirada ne var? (TB2 struck ship and helicopter in Ukraine, what next?),” TolgaOzbek.com via YouTube, 9 May 2022. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qo-eKSL0A7A&list=WL&index=39&t=12s

On 8 May, images appeared on the internet of a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 Drone blowing up a Russian Mi-8 helicopter as troops landed on Snake Island… If this helicopter was in the hovering position, [this means that] a TB2 hit a flying platform, which is a success and a new page in military doctrine…  This means that these drones can also calculate the height of targets.  Until now, we talked about two dimensions, land and water.  But now, it can calculate height/altitude, which means it can also hit a flying target.  This is a new thing for air platforms.

Image Information:

Image: Bayraktar TB2.
Source: Bayhaluk via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bayraktar_TB2_Runway.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0

Turkey Tightens Grip on Black Sea amid War in Ukraine

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TCG Yavuz, the lead ship of Yavuz-class frigate of the Turkish Navy.

TCG Yavuz, the lead ship of Yavuz-class frigate of the Turkish Navy.

“We want the balance [in the Black Sea] not to be disturbed… If the balance is disturbed here, the probability of events getting out of control is very high.” -Hulusi Akar, Turkish Defense Minister

Turkey has seized on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to increase its control of the Black Sea by closing it to foreign warships, stepping up natural gas exploration efforts, and holding naval exercises.  The three accompanying articles from Turkish sources discuss Turkey’s actions regarding the Black Sea in these areas. 

First, Turkey has closed off the Black Sea to Ukrainian and Russian warships by invoking the Montreux Convention of 1936, which gives Turkey the right to prevent warships of warring sides (other than those returning to their bases) from using the Dardanelles and Bosporus Straits during war.  Accordingly, after Ukrainian forces in mid-April sunk the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, Russia was unable to sail its two other ships of the same class into the Black Sea to replace it.  As noted in the first excerpted article from pro-government Turkish publication Hürriyet, in addition to blocking Russia and Ukraine from bringing warships into the Black Sea, Turkey has also warned its NATO Allies not to enter the Black Sea during the war in Ukraine to prevent the conflict from expanding.  Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar noted that this would mitigate the possibility of any rivalry and maintain the peaceful status quo in the Black Sea. 

According to the excerpted article from Turkey’s Daily Sabah, as of April 2022, Turkey had dispatched its three drilling ships to the Sakarya gas field in the Black Sea to harness 540 billion cubic meters of natural gas it discovered in 2020.  Russia supplies about 45 percent of Turkey’s natural gas imports, so this effort would reduce Turkey’s reliance on Russian natural gas by about a quarter when it reaches peak production.  Turkey plans to start pumping gas from this field in 2023 and to increase production in the five years after that.  However, this will depend on Turkey first building an offshore pipeline network and processing facilities.  Turkish officials have regarded natural gas discovery in the Black Sea as an important step toward Turkey’s energy independence.

In April, Turkey also showcased its naval power during the “Blue Homeland” exercises  in the Mediterranean, Aegean, and Black Seas.  The article quotes President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s televised address the last day of exercises saying, “We will continue to work until we become the strongest army in the region with our ships, submarines and weapon systems.”

Sources:

Sedat Ergin, “Savunma Bakanı Akar’dan NATO’ya hassas Karadeniz mesajları: “Karadeniz’in dışında kalınırsa isabet olur” (Sensitive Black Sea messages from Defense Minister Akar to NATO: “It will be better to stay out of the Black Sea”),” Hürriyet (a pro-government Turkish daily),25 Nisan 2022. https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/yazarlar/sedat-ergin/savunma-bakani-akardan-natoya-hassas-karadeniz-mesajlari-karadenizin-disinda-kalinirsa-isabet-olur-42050416

[Defense Minister Hulusi Akar] reveals that Turkey made a series of suggestions to its NATO allies not to enter the Black Sea with warships during the war [in Ukraine]. The Minister does not hide the fact that Turkey’s expectation was conveyed to the NATO allies… and says:

…We want the balance [in the Black Sea] not to be disturbed… If the balance is disturbed here, the probability of events getting out of control is very high. Let’s not turn the Black Sea into a competitive environment.

Source: “Turkey to extend incentives for $10B Black Sea gas field development),” Daily Sabah (a pro-government Turkish daily), 20 April 2022. https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/turkey-to-extend-incentives-for-10b-black-sea-gas-field-development  

Turkey will be extending government support for the massive project to develop the natural gas field it discovered in the Black Sea…

Turkey is building an industrial complex that will process the gas the country discovered in the Sakarya gas field, located some 150 kilometers (93 miles) off the coast of Turkey in the Black Sea. The facility is expected to be operational in the first quarter of 2023.

The country’s first drilling vessel, Fatih, has discovered 540 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas in the Sakarya gas field since August 2020.

Turkey is fully dependent on gas imports, mainly from Russia, but the Sakarya field is expected to reduce those imports by about a quarter once it reaches peak production.

Ankara plans to begin pumping gas from the southwest Black Sea field in 2023 but must first build an offshore pipeline network and processing facilities.

…Expansion of the project over the next 10 years is expected to eventually lift annual production capacity to 14 bcm.

…The gas extracted from the gas field will be brought onshore through a pipeline that will be laid beneath the Black Sea.

…Scheduled to be constructed this year, the 170-kilometer pipeline will connect the wells in the region to the main grid.

The first phase of construction of the Western Black Sea Natural Gas Pipeline section will be carried out in two stages…

Source: “Mavi Vatan 2022 tatbikatı tamamlandı (Blue Homeland 2022 exercises completed),” NTV (a pro-government Turkish news channel),21 April 2022. https://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/mavi-vatan-2022-tatbikati-tamamlandi,9-YP3y3e4EWPSlU1jcnlng

…Participating in the Blue Homeland exercises through a live broadcast, President Erdoğan said: “We will continue to work until we become the strongest army in the region with our ships, submarines and weapon systems.”

Blue Homeland exercises… in coordination with the personnel in the Black Sea, Aegean and eastern Mediterranean, concluded successfully. Airplanes, ships and our personnel have shown that they are always ready for the exercise.

It is imperative for Turkey to have a strong naval force. We attach special importance to developing our naval forces in terms of equipment and personnel and to make the highest contribution to the defense of the homeland.

We will continue to work until we become the strongest army in the region with our ships, submarines and weapon systems.

Image Information:

Image: TCG Yavuz, the lead ship of Yavuz-class frigate of the Turkish Navy.
Source: Nevit Dilmen, Own Work, via Wikimedia,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Istanbul_1000146_Nevit.jpg
Attribution: CC-BY-SA-3.0 | GFDL | Self-published work

Kyrgyzstan Conducts Exercise with Its New Bayraktars

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Bayraktar TB2 S-IHA of the Turkish Army in Teknofest2021at Istanbul Atatürk Airport, Turkey.

Bayraktar TB2 S-IHA of the Turkish Army in Teknofest2021at Istanbul Atatürk Airport, Turkey.

“The Bayraktars entered service with the Border Guards in mid-December last year…”

Kyrgyzstan rarely acquires new weapons and equipment, so when the Kyrgyz government recently announced it had received a set of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), it marked an upgrade in the capabilities of Kyrgyz forces.  The accompanying excerpted articles report on a recent field exercise with the new drones as well as additional new equipment.

The article from the independent news website Kloop reports on an exercise involving Kyrgyzstan’s new Bayraktars.  The article notes that the scenario of the exercise involved eliminating a group of criminals with fire support from the UAVs.  Kyrgyz units in the Ministry of Defense, not the Border Guards, typically carry out this type of exercise.  The article mentions that it is unknown how many Bayraktars Kyrgyzstan purchased, but the UAVs and new vehicles are a notable upgrade specifically for the Border Guards.  There have been a number of clashes on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border over the past 10 years, including clashes in April-May 2021 that resulted in a few dozen people killed (border guards and civilians) and clashes on 12 April 2022.

The excerpted article from the Kyrgyz semi-independent newspaper Vecherniy Bishkek reports on the delivery of “50 new KAMAZ vehicles and 55 Tigr armored personnel carriers to the Border Guards Service of the National Security Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic” and notes that it is “the largest acquisition of equipment for Kyrgyzstan since its independence.”  The article also mentions that the Kyrgyz government purchased the new military equipment with state funds, which one political scientist believed was possible partly because of the government’s takeover of the Kumtor gold mine last year.  In May 2021, the Kyrgyz government took steps to take ownership of Kumtor a Canadian company that had operated and held majority ownership of the mine.  As of April 2022, Kyrgyz authorities now have ownership and control operation of the mine, which makes up a significant percentage of the country’s GDP.

Source:

Munduzbek Kalykov, “Одним видео: «Байрактар», бронетехника и президент в полевой кухне (One video: “Bayraktar”, armored personnel carriers and the president in a field kitchen),” Kloop (independent Russian-language news website in Kyrgyzstan), 31 March 2022. https://kloop.kg/blog/2022/03/31/odnim-video-bajraktar-bronetehnika-i-prezident-v-polevoj-kuhne/

The special tactical exercise “Kalkan-2022” has started at the “Edelweiss” training center in the city of Balykchy…

According to the exercise scenario, an “international criminal group” infiltrated Kyrgyzstan from a neighboring state, having already seized weapons, mortars, a tank and other equipment.

During the exercise, special units of the Border Guards blocked off and eliminated the mock enemy. Their captured armored vehicles were destroyed with the use of the Bayraktar…

The Bayraktars entered service with the Border Guards in mid-December last year. They were bought within the budget, but it is unknown how much was spent on them. Also, the number of drones was not specified.

Source: Bakyt Basarbek, “Благодаря правильной экономической политике мы закупили военную технику (We purchased military equipment thanks to the right economic policies),” Vecherniy Bishkek (semi-independent, Russian-language newspaper in Kyrgyzstan), 25 March 2022. https://www.vb.kg/doc/416032_blagodaria_pravilnoy_ekonomicheskoy_politike_my_zakypili_voennyu_tehniky.html

Today, on 25 March, in Bishkek, a ceremony was held to present 55 modern fire engines to the Ministry of Emergency Situations and 50 new KAMAZ vehicles and 55 Tigr armored personnel carriers to the Border Guards Service of the National Security Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic…this is the largest acquisition of equipment for Kyrgyzstan since its independence.

…the KAMAZ trucks and the armored personnel carriers were purchased with funds from the state budget…

“Now we can buy equipment ourselves. The privatization of Kumtor and general economic policy played a role in this,” said political scientist Mars Sariev…he recalled that Kyrgyzstan previously purchased the strike-capable unmanned aerial vehicle Bayraktar from Turkey…

Image Information:

Image: Bayraktar TB2 S-IHA of the Turkish Army in Teknofest2021at Istanbul Atatürk Airport, Turkey
Source: CeeGee via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bayraktar_TB2_S-IHA_TurkishArmy_Teknofest2021_(3).jpg
Attribution: CC by 4.0

Indonesia Upgrades Naval Submarine Fleet

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Submarine KRI Nagapasa, Indonesian Navy.

Submarine KRI Nagapasa, Indonesian Navy.

“Yudo explained that the plan to purchase Scorpene submarines had undergone a long evaluation in order to modernize the equipment of the Indonesian Navy’s weapons systems.”

Recently, Indonesia acquired two Scorpene submarines from France, modernizing its navy’s weapons systems.  The accompanying articles from local sources provide insight intotwo factors that prompted Indonesia to pursue new submarines.  First, China has repeatedly entered the waters of the North Natuna Sea, which Indonesia claims as its exclusive economic zone and China asserts is within its so-called nine-dash line.  The Natuna Sea is important for both countries’ economies due to its substantial oil and gas reserves.  Second, in April 2021, an Indonesian submarine sank off the coast of Bali, killing 53 crew members.  The 44-year old submarine’s sinking highlighted the age and vulnerability of Indonesia’s aging submarine fleet and the need for an upgrade.  The next step for Indonesia is to receive training on operating the Scorpene submarines and acquire the necessary spare parts and an air-independent propulsion system.

Source:

“Prabowo Bakal Beli 2 Kapal Selam Scorpene, KSAL: Kita Sudah Cek, Kita Setuju (Prabowo will Buy 2 Scorpene Submarines, KSAL: We Have Checked, We Agree),” kompas.com (historically pro-government and nationalist-leaning Indonesian-language news source), 5 March 2022.  https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2022/03/02/15351471/prabowo-bakal-beli-2-kapal-selam-scorpene-ksal-kita-sudah-cek-kita-setuju

The Chief of Naval Staff (KSAL) Admiral Yudo Margono agreed to the plan to purchase two Scorpene ships from France. According to Yudo, the Scorpene submarine is a submarine that meets the requirements to be able to operate within the confines of Indonesian waters…. In addition, Yudo explained that the plan to purchase Scorpene submarines had undergone a long evaluation in order to modernize the equipment of the Indonesian Navy’s weapons systems.”

Source: “Indonesia to ramp up submarine fleet in response to Chinese incursions,” aninews.com (news source covering Indian and Asian current affairs), 30 May 2021.  https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/indonesia-to-ramp-up-submarine-fleet-in-response-to-chinese-incursions20210530163032/

In response to repeated Chinese incursions into its waters, Indonesia aims to expand its submarine fleet by as much as triple its current line to 12 total vessels, according to multiple defense sources.

This comes after the Indonesian submarine that went missing off the coast of Bali with 53 crew members on board sunk last month, killing all crewman.

Image Information:

Image: Submarine KRI Nagapasa, Indonesian Navy.
Source: Indonesian Navy (TNI-AL)
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Submarine_KRI_Nagapasa,_Indonesian_Navy.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

Philippines Pursues Helicopter Deals with Russia, Turkey, and Poland

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Marawi crisis UH-1H helicopter.

Marawi crisis UH-1H helicopter.

“The Philippines will proceed with the acquisition of 17 helicopters from Russia despite the latter’s conflict with Ukraine…”

The accompanying article from the Philippines-based gmanetwork.com looks at the Philippine government’s decision to purchase 17 military transport helicopters from Russia.  The article notes that the deal was made before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and, for the Philippines, the invasion does not affect the status of the deal.  The article asserts that the fulfillment of the deal would ultimately depend on Russia, which has been subject to sanctions since its war in Ukraine began.  The president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, has only expressed concern about, but not condemned, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In addition, on 9 March, Turkey’s pro-government Daily Sabah reported that the Philippines received six attack helicopters from a Turkish company.  Like the Russian helicopters, the helicopters from Turkey are intended to enhance the Philippines’ surface strike system.  They are capable of being deployed in the South China Sea, where the Philippines has territorial disputes with China.

Besides Russia and Turkey, gmanetwork.com reported on 22 February that the Philippines acquired 16 Black Hawk helicopters from Poland and is under contract for the purchase of 32 more.  The Philippines Air Force (PAF) noted that the helicopters would be used in humanitarian emergencies, as occurred when Typhoon Odette caused the deaths of more than 400 civilians in Visayas and Mindanao in December 2021.  In addition, the PAF may use the helicopters for aerial surveillance, including of pirates and terrorist groups like Abu Sayyaf, which have been active in the south of the country, kidnapping both foreign tourists and Philippine citizens.

Source:

“Philippines keeps $12.7-billion chopper deal with Russia despite Ukraine conflict,” gmanetwork.com (largely centrist Philippine based media outlet), 10 March 2022. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/824565/philippines-keeps-12-7-billion-chopper-deal-with-russia-despite-ukraine-conflict/story/

The Philippines will proceed with the acquisition of 17 helicopters from Russia despite the latter’s conflict with Ukraine, the Department of National Defense (DND) said. In a statement, DND Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said the deal and initial payment for the project were made even before the start of the crisis in Ukraine.

Source: “Philippines receives 1st batch of Turkey-made attack helicopters,” dailysabah.com (Turkish pro-government news source), 9 March 2022. https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/philippines-receives-1st-batch-of-turkey-made-attack-helicopters

The Philippines has received the first batch of Turkey-made attack helicopters, the country’s air force announced. The country had ordered six helicopters designed and developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI). The Philippines – which is buying the six choppers worth approximately $280 million (TL 4.1 billion) – is the first country abroad to use the ATAK.

Mariano said the Turkish-made attack helicopters are expected to enhance the “surface strike system” of the Air Force.

Source: “Philippines, Poland firm sign deal for 32 Black Hawk helicopters,” gmanetwork.com (largely centrist Philippine based media outlet), 22 February 2022. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/822693/philippines-poland-firm-sign-deal-for-32-black-hawk-helicopters/story/

The PAF said the set of helicopters would boost the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ capability for various operations such as humanitarian assistance and disaster response missions. The defense chief added that the Black Hawk helicopters, as well as the country’s 15 Sikorsky 70i, were helpful during the onslaught of Typhoon Odette in parts of Visayas and Mindanao.

Image Information:

Image: Marawi crisis UH-1H helicopter.
Source: Philippines Information Agency
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Marawi_crisis_UH-1H_helicopter.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 2.0

India Begins Development of a Light Tank

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“India had considered acquiring the Russian light tank the Sprut SDM1 following the outbreak of the current Sino-Indian boundary in May 2020.”

On 3 March, the Indian government announced the development of a light tank that could better operate at high altitudes and mountainous terrain along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).  The project would also provide a boost to Indian firms as part of the Make in India initiative.  The accompanying excerpted article from the Indian independent think-tank Observer Research Foundation, provides some background to the decision to develop this indigenously and points out some issues that could come up in the process.

According to the article, the proposed tank will be developed under the “Make-I category of the 2020 Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP).”  This means the government will fund the development, instead of the defense industry.  The article also points out that China has already developed its Type 15 light tank and deployed it in the high-altitude regions along the LAC.  The author notes that India considered purchasing Russia’s Sprut light tank just after the border clashes with China in May 2020, but officials ultimately decided to develop an indigenous light tank.  He also notes that while building it at home would be beneficial for the domestic defense industry, there “could potentially be a minimum five-year lag before the country witnesses the emergence of the initial variant of a homemade light tank.” 

The author cites the pained development of the Arjun main battle tank, including delays and a lukewarm reception, as an example of the issues that could come up during the development of a new tank.  He also notes the Arjun’s limited deployment only in certain geographic areas as a “reminder of how not to proceed with the development of an indigenous light tank.”  He believes that if India repeats these mistakes with a light tank, it could eventually need to import one at a time when sanctions against Russia make it a risky source of supply.

Source:

Kartik Bommakanti, “Light tanks: A shot in the arm for the Indian Army,” Observer Research Foundation (an independent think tank in India), 21 March 2022.

https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/light-tanks-a-shot-in-the-arm-for-the-indian-army/

The Modi government on 3 March 2022 announced the development of light tanks for the Indian Army (IA). This decision was taken under the Make-I category of the 2020 Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP)…

…the Chinese have designed and developed a dedicated light tank called the Type-15 and deploy them due to their suitability for high altitude warfare against India. The Type-15 weighs 35 tonnes with a 105 mm gun making it significantly lighter than the IA’s T-90, T-72… It is one of the few light tanks built in the last three decades…

Against this backdrop, India had considered acquiring the Russian light tank the Sprut SDM1 following the outbreak of the current Sino-Indian boundary in May 2020. In April 2021, the Directorate General of Mechanised Forces issued a Request for Information (RFI) under the Ministry of Defence (MoD) for 350 light tanks in the weight class of 25 tonnes. Notwithstanding Russia’s offer, India has now turned to native development of a light tank rather than import them.

…Irrespective of the merits of native development of light tanks, India’s decision-makers have to recognise that there could potentially be a minimum five-year lag before the country witnesses the emergence of the initial variant of a homemade light tank.

…The light tank project cannot be hobbled by past native development of armoured platforms such as the nearly 70 tonne—Arjun MBT…it is an overweight tank and can only be deployed in “pockets” such as the desert areas along the India-Pakistan border…The delayed and lukewarm integration of both variants—Mk1 and Mk1A of the Arjun MBTs by the IA also serves as a reminder of how not to proceed with the development of an indigenous light tank, because it could compel the IA and the government importing light tanks at the cost of an indigenous capability. A heavily-sanctioned Russia in the coming months and years will be a highly risky source of supply…

Turkey Central To Reducing Europe’s Dependence on Russian Natural Gas

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Map of the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (the central part of the Southern Gas Corridor, which connects the giant Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan to Europe through the South Caucasus Pipeline and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline.

Map of the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (the central part of the Southern Gas Corridor, which connects the giant Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan to Europe through the South Caucasus Pipeline and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline.

The two excerpted articles suggest that Europe could reduce or eliminate its dependence on Russian natural gas by using possible alternatives from the Middle East via Turkey.  The first article from Turkey’s state-owned news agency, Anadolu Ajansı, looks at a potential Turkey-Israeli natural gas pipeline that would pump Eastern Mediterranean gas reserves to Europe.  Israeli President Isaac Herzog revived this idea during his visit to Ankara in early March 2022.  Accordingly, the article states that the issue was on both Turkey’s and Israel’s agenda.  Turkish President Erdoğan reportedly signaled that the sides would continue to work to determine concrete steps on proposed routes.

The excerpted article from security news site al-Monitor explores the option of Europe importing natural gas from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq via Turkey.  It warns that this will likely increase the rivalry between Turkey and Iran, as Iran would perceive it as a threat to its energy market.  On 13 March, Iranian missiles struck Erbil and one target was the villa of a Kurdish businessman involved in the Kurdish region’s energy sector.  The article notes that a key trigger for the strikes was a plan to pump Kurdish natural gas into Turkey and Europe with the help of Israel.  The article refers to several statements made by both Kurdish and Turkish officials indicating such plans.  For example, President of the Kurdistan Region Masrour Barzani said on 28 March that the region would “become a net exporter of gas to the rest of Iraq, Turkey, and Europe in the near future and help meet their energy security needs.”  President Erdoğan also stated that Turkey was gearing up for new energy projects.

Source:

Haydar Oruç, “Türkiye-İsrail normalleşmesinin enerji boyutu (Energy Dimension of Turkey-Israel Normalization),” Anadolu Ajansı (Turkey’s state-owned news agency), 11 March 2021.https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz/turkiye-israil-normallesmesinin-enerji-boyutu/2531776

Undoubtedly, the issue that comes to the fore at first glance is energy cooperation…

…after the Russian invasion of Ukraine the issues experienced in energy supply, Europe feels the need to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supply. And this reality puts Eastern Mediterranean gas one step ahead of other alternatives.

When the [EastMed Pipeline] project is implemented, first of all, Turkey’s energy supply will be diversified… Iran, which has supplied most of Turkey’s energy needs previously, being subjected to international sanctions complicates the sustainability of the gas its gas supplies… In addition, Iran’s desire to use gas as a political tool from time to time also harms relations.

Similarly, recent international sanctions on Russia makes its [energy] source unsustainable. Therefore, the emergence of Eastern Mediterranean gas as an alternative source is extremely important in terms of energy security. This will increase the importance and value of Turkey in the energy market.

…if Turkey and Israel reach an agreement for the delivery of Eastern Mediterranean gas to Europe via Turkey, energy supplies will be diversified, energy routes will be secured…

Source: “Erdoğan: Turkey-Israel Gas pipeline on the agenda,” Yetkin Report (blog of veteran Turkish Journalist Murat Yetkin),31 March 2022. https://yetkinreport.com/en/2022/03/31/erdogan-turkey-israel-gas-pipeline-on-the-agenda/ 

Is Turkey-Israel gas pipeline project on the agenda as an alternative to Russian streams? Erdoğan answered Turkish journalist’s questions on March 33… stating that a gas pipeline crossing through Turkey is on the agenda.

“We discussed many issues in detail with Mr. Herzog, especially the energy issue. In the past, there were some relations, contacts between Israel and Turkey regarding energy… Laying pipes under the sea from Israel to Greece, to Europe, is not a feasible thing to do. As a result of the cost calculations, it is seen that the most suitable way for this is [the passage] of this natural gas [pipeline] through Turkey. Of course, they are already making assessment on the issue…”

Erdoğan added that he proposed a bilateral meeting between Ministers of Foreign Affairs, and Energy and Natural Resources to discuss the energy issue in detail, and said that Israeli President’s response was positive on this proposal…

“…the cooperation between Israel and Turkey here will accelerate the process related to Eastern Mediterranean oil and natural gas. I am very hopeful about this,” [Erdoğan] said.

Source: Fehim Taştekin,“Ukraine war shakes up Turkey’s ties with both Russia and NATO,” al-Monitor (globally read security news site with regionally based reporting),08 April 2022. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/04/will-renewed-interest-iraqi-kurdish-gas-fuel-turkey-iran-rivalry

Potential projects to carry Iraqi Kurdistan natural gas to Europe via Turkey, in order to reduce dependency on Russia, might also increase rivalry between Turkey and Iran.

…a potential plan to carry Iraqi Kurdish gas through Turkey with the help of Israel was one reason for Iran’s missile attack on Erbil on March 13.  

…Under an energy cooperation deal between Ankara and Iraqi Kurdistan in 2013, Turkey has already finished the pipeline linking its border with northern Iraq to a conduit which carries Azeri gas to Europe.

…

Erbil has amped up its efforts to boost its energy ties with regional actors amid escalating tensions between Russia and the Western capitals over Ukraine. Iraqi Kurdistan President Nechirvan Barzani met with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Feb. 2. Ali Hama Salih, the head of the energy commission in Kurdistan’s parliament, said Feb. 9 that the gas link to Turkey would become operational in 2025. …Most recently, [KRG Prime Minister] Masrour Barzani announced Mar 28 that Iraqi Kurdistan would “become a net exporter of gas to the rest of Iraq, Turkey and Europe in the near future and help meet their energy security needs…”

While echoing previous assertions that Israel has no involvement in the plans, Barzani also admitted that Iraqi Kurdistan’s expanding energy ties were not in line with Iranian interests…

In a similar vein, Erdogan said Turkey was gearing up for new energy projects. On his way back from Brussels, where he met with various NATO leaders, he told reporters, “God willing, through our meetings new avenues will be opened for Turkey in the energy field.” That hints at possible markets for Iraqi Kurdish and Eastern Mediterranean gas following normalization of ties with Israel. 

…But Ankara still has to find a middle ground between Erbil and Baghdad to advance its gas and oil cooperation with Iraqi Kurdistan.

Image Information:

Image: Map of the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (the central part of the Southern Gas Corridor, which connects the giant Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan to Europe through the South Caucasus Pipeline and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline.
Source: Golden, Own Work, via Wikimedia,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Trans-Anatolian_gas_pipeline.png,
Attribution: CC-BY-SA-4.0 | Self-published work | Maps by Golden