Category Archives: FMSO Publications

“Virtual War: The Qatar-UAE Battle of Narratives” by Lucas Winter (2020-05-28)

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Over the past decade, strategic competition between Qatar and the UAE has evolved into low-level information warfare. What began as disagreements on foreign policy in the wake of the Arab Spring has escalated into a conflict to shape and control information flows in cyberspace. Although not always visible, Qatari-Emirati competition has become a persistent feature of the regional Operational Environment (OE). Their competition in the cyber-information sphere is part of a broader competition for influence involving Turkey, Qatar and their allies, on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE and their allies, on the other.1 One of Qatar’s main contributions to the Turkish-led axis is the employment of Arabic-language media outlets to influence local and foreign perceptions of the OE. The adversarial Qatar-UAE relationship has more recently morphed into a nascent cyber conflict to control not only the narrative but also digital data and information. Hoping to become hubs of the new digital economy, both countries are investing in cybersecurity and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in ways that will enhance their capabilities to shaper perceptions of the OE.2 Their conflict will continue to be a dynamic factor shaping the regional OE, and its evolution highlights the changing character of information war.

Winning Irregular War – 2017 Edit (Geoff Demarest)

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Control over the granting of impunity is this book’s definition of winning. The geography of impunity is sanctuary. To control impunity and sanctuary, the book highlights attention to anonymity; inventorying as an indispensable knowledge activity; withdrawal and pursuit as key operational and strategic concepts; deception as a compulsory element of strategic thinking; geography as the academic discipline of choice; property analysis as tool for exposing the distribution of power; distance as a key variable in the measurement of relative power; civil engineering and construction as noble activities; personal dignity and honor as key quantities of a durable victory; adaptation of classic strategy as operational artistry; and formal property regimes as a basis of peaceful social compacts.

Kremlin Kontrol: Russia’s Political-Military Reality (Timothy L. Thomas)

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Authoritarian regimes are, by their very nature, insecure. They tend to view Western democracies as an existential threat to their way of rule and they fear the development of any type of opposition or protests in the streets. In Russia’s case, the latter fear of protests leading to a “color revolution” often appears as important as the ISIS threat to its southern border. Lacking political legitimacy, they rely on two factors to sustain their leadership, patriotism and control. This study discusses the latter issue from both a civilian and military point of view. Russian President Vladimir Putin, a former KGB operative, is all about control. In his excellent book The Invention of Russia, Arkady Ostrovsky recounted one conversation about Putin: “Anything you control is safe. Anything you don’t control by definition represents a threat—that is their mental framework, and a KGB officer is always a KGB officer.”

This work is divided into two parts. Part One looks at the system of control that Putin has either continued or developed anew in his twelve years as president. Part Two is focused on several military aspects of control. These include not only command and control issues but also the methodical manner in which Russian military analysts establish control parameters over their environment.

Russia Military Strategy: Impacting 21st Century Reform and Geopolitics (Timothy L. Thomas)

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This book is divided into three parts. Part one addresses President Vladimir Putin’s personality, Russian methods of developing strategy, and the Russian thought process for evaluating military affairs (forecasting, correlation of forces, forms, and methods of thought). Part two addresses the nature of future war, focusing on future war’s new weapons and organizations (to include aerospace, robotics, electronic warfare equipment, and unmanned aerial vehicles, among other pieces of equipment) and the DARPA-like organizations that have been created to increase Russia’s focus on science and technology developments. Part three address geopolitics, in particular the Russian militarization of the Arctic and the rationale behind their operations in Ukraine. All three parts help analysts in their attempts to uncover the vector (s) in which Russian military capabilities and actions are heading. The nation’s theorists have absorbed lessons learned from the contemporary conflicts of others and placed increased focus on the development of new technologies to protect their national interests and attain specific strategic goals.

Three Faces of the Cyber Dragon: Cyber Peace Activist, Spook, Attacker (Timothy L. Thomas)

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China’s cyber policy has become partly visible to foreign nations through observation, tracking, and inference. The policy appears to have three vectors. The first vector is in the public opinion or “soft power” arena, where China professes to be led by a policy of active defense and cooperation with other nations over cyber issues. The second and most prominent vector is China’s exhibited capability to conduct strong and stealthy intelligence and reconnaissance activities against nation’s worldwide, using the guise of anonymity to hide these efforts. The third vector is the offensive character of China’s cyber strategy. It contains the theoretical backing for preemptive cyber operations against other nations in times of crisis. These three aspects—peace activist, espionage activist, and attack planner—dominate China’s cyber policy. Some are always hidden from view while others are demonstrated daily. Three Faces of the Cyber Dragon is divided into sections that coincide with these vectors.

Recasting the Red Star: Russia Forges Tradition and Technology Through Toughness (Timothy L. Thomas)

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Recasting the Red Star describes Russia’s modernization effort in a comprehensive fashion. The Defense Ministry’s military reform effort and the operational environment implied in Russia’s national security strategy (2009) and military doctrine (2010) are described. The Soviet culture of military thought is examined to include a short history of Tsarist and Soviet military traditions. These chapters serve as a reference point for the traditions behind Russia’s modernization effort. Next the author examines technological developments, such as Russia’s concept of high-technology deception, information war, reconnaissance- and information-strike systems (a C4ISR equivalent), and resulting future war construct. Finally, the book closely examines the Russian-Georgian conflict of August 2008. These chapters question why Russia and Georgia went to war, how information warfare figured into the conflict, and, most important of all, “who set the bear trap.”

Passing It On: Fighting the Pushtun on Afghanistan’s Frontiers (General Sir Andrew Skeen. Les Grau and Robert Baer)

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This is a reproduction of a 1932 book published by General Skeen, who began fighting the Pushtun in 1897. His military career took him to fighting Boxers in China, the “Mad Mullah” in Somaliland and Germans on the Western Front of World War I. He always returned to British India where fighting the fractious Pushtun continued to be a problem. He was a brigade commander during the Third-Anglo-Afghan War, commanded the Kohat-Kurran field force and fought in the Waziristan campaign. He commanded the Northwest Frontier District and in 1924-1928, served as the Chief of Staff of the Indian Army. He knew the Pushtun and frontier fighting better than almost any other British officer. He wrote this book as a guide for company-grade officers fighting the Pushtun. Les Grau had read General Skeen’s book during the Soviet-Afghan War and, after the United States invaded Afghanistan, decided that this would be a welcome addition to the field libraries of allied commanders who were fighting the Taliban-who are ethnic Pashtun. Les and Bob Baer added copious footnotes to General Skeen’s work to explain the “Britishisms” and terms and concepts. They also wrote an introduction to explain the history, context, geography and application of Skeen’s classic work.

Property & Peace: Insurgency, Strategy, and the Statute of Frauds (Geoff Demarest)

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This book argues that the quality of foreign real property systems be made a priority issue in US diplomatic, military and intelligence thinking and strategy. The text does not argue that creating better land records will assure peaceful coexistence. Formal real property record systems correlate with peaceful societies, but the principle assertion here is in the negative. Even with formal records, functioning property courts, and a free and fluid market in land a place may still suffer violent dissention. However, a polity that does not formalize ownership rights and duties, especially rights and duties related to land, will not enjoy peace. Comprehensive, precise, transparent expression of real property is a necessary precondition of peace; places outside the lines of formal property necessarily slump toward possession by force. From this assertion others follow that bear on the way global security is pursued.

The Dragon’s Quantum Leap: Transforming from a Mechanized to an Informatized Force (Timothy L. Thomas)

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Chinese observations of warfare in the information age have resulted in a widespread transformation and metamorphosis of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from a mechanized to an informatized force. This transformation has affected nearly every aspect of China’s military from strategy to logistics to educational development.The Dragon’s Quantum Leap intends to peel back the transformation process and uncover the impact of new modes of thought on several key segments of military development (culture, stratagems, crisis management, deception, and reconnaissance among other elements) that digital-age thought is affecting. It expands the scope but not the basic theoretical theme of the author’s two previous works on Chinese information warfare concepts. They were Dragon Bytes, which covered Chinese IW activities from 1999-2003; and Decoding the Virtual Dragon, which covered Chinese IW activities from 2003-2006. The Dragon’s Quantum Leap updates these concepts and activities to mid-2009 and completes the author’s trilogy on the topic. As with the author’s previous works, this book primarily uses original Chinese source material.

Future War (Makhmut Gareev and Vladimir Slipchenko)

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In 2005, the Foreign Military Studies Office hosted a unique conference featuring two of Russia’s premier military thinkers, who provided their thoughts on the nature of future war. This publication is the bilateral, agreed-upon transcript of the lectures which answer the same question.  Major General Vladimir Slipchenko addresses the question “For what Kind of War Must Russia Be Prepared?” His observations capture technical and military-strategic context.  Army General Makhmut Gareev gives a historical and ideological perspective of “Russia in the Wars of the 20th Century.”  The introduction of these conference notes was authored by the Foreign Military Studies Office’s Director and moderator of the conference at that time, Dr. Jacob W. Kipp.  Slipchenko and Gareev’s comments here represent early insights and perspectives provided directly to their US military counterparts and remain foundational voices in Russian military science.