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“Russia’s Developing Tank-Support Combat Vehicle Concept” By Les Grau and Charles Bartles (October 2022)
Category Archives: FMSO Publications
“Russian Battalion Tactical Group Mission Training in the Arctic” By Les Grau and Charles Bartles (April 2023)
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Turkey as a Drone Superpower: A Case Study of a Mid-Size Power Driving the Operational Environment (Karen Kaya) (March 2023)
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Key Takeaways:
• Turkey has emerged as a drone superpower on the world stage. In just the past few years,
Turkey has become one of a select group of countries in the world that can produce, use
and export armed drones extensively, trailing only the United States, Israel, and China.
• Turkey’s innovative use of its cost-effective Bayraktar TB-2 drone involves using drone
squadrons effectively as a mobile air artillery, thereby achieving overmatch by emphasizing
quantity over quality. This strategy has impacted geopolitical outcomes in several regional
conflicts, and has provided a strategy for middle sized powers to emulate. Several such
powers—including Ukraine, Poland, Azerbaijan—are buying these cost-effective systems
from Turkey with a view to do so. Other midsize countries with limited defense budgets
are likely to replicate this approach, changing the nature of local conflicts and even the
calculations of larger observing nations.
• Drones and anti-aircraft technologies that merge ISR with strike capabilities will increasingly
impact the trajectories of conflicts. The entry barriers to these technologies are falling,
making it easier for geopolitical issues to turn to war.
The Evolutionary Russian View of Peacekeeping as Part of Modern Warfare (Matthew Stein) (March 2023)
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Russia views peacekeeping operations as a part of warfare, specifically that they can be
utilized to achieve strategic objectives beyond conflict resolution
• Russia’s past peacekeeping operations have shown how these involved ending the conflict
as quickly as possible and enforcing terms of any cease-fire agreement, including taking
action that favored one of the belligerents as long as Russia remains in the dominant position
• Russia’s Nagorno-Karabakh peacekeeping operation ended a conflict and helped the
Russian government maintain influence in the Commonwealth of Independent States with
a Russian military detachment in place for the foreseeable future, which can help explain
how conflicts involving Russia are likely to end.
Cultivating Joint Talent: PLA Education and Training Reforms (Kevin McCauley)(February 2023)
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Cultivating joint command talent and promoting realistic and complex joint training at
the campaign and tactical levels is critical to the successful implementation of integrated
joint operations, transformation efforts, and enhancing the People’s Liberation Army’s
[PLA] overall combat capabilities. The PLA is implementing a “Triad” military education
program to address problems with joint talent and training. - The implications for the PLA of successful implementation of joint talent cultivation and
improving joint training are significant for reaching its goal of an advanced military. While
the PLA’s transformation will likely be a lengthy process, the PLA can still present a lethal
opponent with its precision long-range strike and information warfare capabilities. - The PLA’s modernization effort faces the complex task of integrating mechanized warfare,
informationized warfare, and intelligent warfare systems and operational methods into the
force concurrently. Reported difficulties educating officers and staff for informationized
warfare raise questions about the PLA’s ability to integrate fully intelligent warfare
technologies and operational methods into the force.
People’s Liberation Army: Army Campaign Doctrine in Transition (Kevin McCauley) (January 2023)
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The PLA develops generic offensive, defensive, and special conditions campaign models
to support planning and training for operational scenarios it believes are relevant to
potential conflicts. These generic campaigns provide planning factors, force organization,
and operational methods for combat. - The choice of campaigns reveals that Taiwan and Indian conflict scenarios are the key
scenarios for which the PLA is planning and training. - Some of the campaigns do not appear to represent operational situations the PLA is likely
to face in the near to mid-term. - PLA doctrinal change is evolutionary, and in the past slow. The available PLA sources on
Army doctrine appear to show incremental change to date due to developing technologies
such as artificial intelligence or research on operational methods exhibited in recent foreign
conflicts such as the United States military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“The Islamic State’s “African Turn”: Why the African Continent Is Showing Outsized Importance for IS” (Jason Warner) (November 2022)
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The Islamic State Central is increasingly publicizing the achievements of its affiliated African
provinces, leading to what the FMSO’s Foreign Perspectives Brief authors call “The Islamic
State’s African Turn.” - The authors detail six potential benefits that IS Central might gain with such an “African
Turn,” as well as what downsides might also accompany such a turn. - Overall, the authors assess that the Islamic State’s African Turn is likely more tied to
temporary successes of African provinces than it is an attempt to change the Middle Eastern
character of the group.
“Turkey as a Drone Superpower: A Case Study of a Mid-Size Power Driving the Operational Environment” by Karen Kaya (2022-09-08)
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
Synopsis: Turkey has emerged as a drone superpower on the world stage. In just the past few
years, Turkey has become one of a select group of countries in the world that can produce, use and export armed drones extensively, trailing only the United States, Israel, and China. In addition, it has innovated new ways to use its cost-effective Bayraktar TB-2 to achieve overmatch by emphasizing quantity over quality across an array of battlefields. Turkey’s innovative use of drone squadrons as a surrogate for an air force in a conventional battle has provided a strategy for middle-sized powers to emulate, resulting in several such powers—including Ukraine, Poland, Azerbaijan—buying these cost-effective systems from Turkey with a view to do so. Other mid-size countries with limited defense budgets are likely to replicate this approach, changing the nature of local conflicts and even the calculations of larger observing nations. This paper examines Turkey’s innovative use of the Bayraktar TB-2 drone, as a case study of how a mid-size power can drive geopolitical outcomes around the globe through drones.
“The Evolutionary Russian View of Peacekeeping as Part of Modern Warfare” by Matthew Stein (July 2022)
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War stood out as a significant chapter in the history of the conflict in the region. Not only did Azerbaijan take control over a large amount of territory, the Russian government deployed peacekeepers as part of the cease-fire agreement between the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan. This marked the first time a peacekeeping force became involved in the conflict over the region and stood as another example of how Russia utilized a peacekeeping operation as a response to a conflict in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The CIS is made up of states of the former Soviet Union and is an area where the Russian government has special relationships and a sphere of influence. While the United States has arguably pulled back from peacekeeping operations in recent years and, as a result, the U.S. military has deemphasized them, Russia views peacekeeping operations as a key part of modern warfare. Like other military operations, Russians consider that peacekeeping operations can be utilized to achieve strategic objectives beyond conflict resolution. This article examines how Russia views peacekeeping operations as a part of warfare, including in its military doctrine and based on past conflicts in the CIS. It also examines how this applies to the most recent conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and in the peacekeeping operation as a response to civil unrest in Kazakhstan. Insights from this may also inform potential outcomes of the current war in Ukraine.
“Cultivating Joint Talent: PLA Education and Training Reforms” by Kevin McCauley (2021-10-12)
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
This paper examines the PLA’s reforms targeting the development of joint commanders and staff, and efforts to improve joint training. Qualified joint officers and a well-trained joint force are fundamental requirements to propel the PLA into the echelons of the world’s advanced militaries. The PLA’s military education reform effort is to improve the quality of personnel in general, but an important emphasis of the current military educational reforms is focused on joint commanders and staff. The PLA intends to instill a general level of joint knowledge throughout the entire military as it pushes joint operations capabilities down to the tactical level. While the detailed outline of these reforms is known, the full extent and quality of implemented reforms is difficult to gauge.