Author Archives: Ryan Berg

Colombian Military Continues To Forcefully Dismantle FARC Dissident Structures

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A protest against the FARC and its activities.

A protest against the FARC and its activities.

“According to the National Army, these offensive operations are carried out within the framework of security provided by the Armed Forces in the midst of the 2022 Democracy Plan, in which they seek to counteract ‘the terrorist actions of the criminal armed groups in this region of the country.”

In 2016, the Colombian government signed a groundbreaking peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).  The agreement was intended to put an end to over 50 years of conflict.  Colombia’s military, however, continues to fight dissident members of the FARC who rejected the agreement and did not lay down their arms.  Aided by the Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela, FARC remnants remain a deadly and powerful force in Colombia, especially in rural and border regions as they push to expand their control of lucrative drug trafficking routes.  According to the excerpted article from the politically centrist Columbian daily El Tiempo, in recent months, Colombia’s military has clashed with members of FARC dissident groups as it increases the pace of special military operations.  The outlet reports that in one such operation in Arauca, the military killed 23 dissidents, including a top leader.  The excerpted article from Colombia’s most famous weekly magazine, Semana, tells the story of similar captures of important FARC dissidents in Tumaco state.  FARC dissidents are not only reconstituting themselves with the safe haven provided by Venezuela, but also competing internally between various dissident factions for territorial control.  Currently, the FARC is under heavy scrutiny in Colombia as the country is in the midst of a heated presidential campaign where security is, as always, an important topic.

Source:

“Mueren 23 disidentes en operación de ejército, entre ellos ‘Arturo’ (23 dissidents die in army operation, among them ‘Arturo’),” El Tiempo (one of Colombia’s oldest dailies generally described as politically-centrist), 25 February 2022.  https://www.eltiempo.com/justicia/conflicto-y-narcotrafico/arauca-23-disidentes-murieron-tras-operacion-militar-653989  

The newspaper established that for 20 days intelligence from the National Police had been monitoring the structure of ‘Arturo,’ who crossed the border from Venezuela with at least 35 of his men…It was established that after the intelligence group located the camp, a bombing operation was planned by the Colombian Air Force, and the Army Special Forces immediately entered and fought with part of the guerrilla.  Then the Judicial Police entered and managed to recover 23 bodies, including Arturo’s.

Source:  “Capturan a seis presuntos disidentes de las Farc en Tumaco (Six presumed dissidents of the Farc are captured in Tumaco),” Semana (Colombia’s most famous weekly magazine), 12 March 2022.  https://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/capturan-a-seis-presuntos-disidentes-de-las-farc-en-tumaco/202208/    

According to the National Army, these offensive operations are carried out within the framework of security provided by the Armed Forces in the midst of the 2022 Democracy Plan, in which they seek to counteract ‘the terrorist actions of the criminal armed groups in this region of the country’…the Ombudsman’s Office warned at the end of February of a rearrangement of criminal dynamics…that seek to control this strategic corridor and the access roads to the city of Bogotá through the use of violence.

Image Information:

Image caption:  A protest against the FARC and its activities.
Source:  https://www.flickr.com/photos/kozumel/2245170100
Attribution:  CC BY-ND 2.0

Invasion of Ukraine Spotlights Russia’s Information, Intelligence Operations in Latin America

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A GLONASS or GPS personal device for satellite positioning.

A GLONASS or GPS personal device for satellite positioning.

“All installation work was carried out by Russian personnel and their access is restricted.  A concrete wall topped with barbed wire blocks the way… there is no known anti-drug operation in which it has participated.”

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine brought new focus on Latin America, where Russia maintains influence, especially through the authoritarian regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba.  Russia’s economic footprint may be relatively small compared to China’s, but it operates robust propaganda networks with wide dissemination in the region.  Russia has also demonstrated an ability to interfere in the region’s elections, including in Colombia’s upcoming presidential election.  The excerpted article from center-left Colombian daily El Espectador reports that social media experts have noted an uptick in Russian bots shaping the political narrative in Colombia and pushing domestic debate to the political fringes.  Meanwhile, in Daniel Ortega’s Nicaragua, scrutiny remains focused on Russia’s highly capable intelligence-gathering satellites.  The excerpted article from Argentine center-left news website Infobae reports that Russia installed these satellites under the guise of assisting Nicaragua in its counternarcotics operations.  However, the site reports that Russia’s Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) has not participated in any known counternarcotics operations in its over five years of existence.  Russia’s position in Nicaragua complements its four stations in Brazil, three in Antarctica, and one in South Africa.  The country’s position in Latin America, bolstered by digital information operations and military hardware in countries such as Nicaragua and Venezuela, is extremely important as it contemplates potential measures against the United States for its punishing sanctions campaign.

Source:

“Estación satelital o espionaje?: cómo es la más misteriosa base rusa en América Latina (Satellite station or espionage?: what is the most mysterious Russian base in Latin America),” Infobae (Argentine news outlet generally considered center-left politically), 17 March 2022.  https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2022/03/17/estacion-satelital-o-espionaje-como-es-la-mas-misteriosa-base-rusa-en-america-latina/

From 2013 to date, Russia has installed nine ground satellite stations outside its borders, known as GLONASS (Global Navigation Satellite System, for its acronym in Russian).  The last one was installed in Nicaragua five years ago, and it is receiving attention when the world takes stock of the resources that Russia has in the face of a possible global war…  All installation work was carried out by Russian personnel and their access is restricted.  A concrete wall topped with barbed wire blocks the way…there is no known anti-drug operation in which it has participated.

Source:  “La influencia rusa en América Latina, ¿un riesgo para Colombia? (Russian influence in Latin America—a risk for Colombia?),” El Espectador (Colombian daily generally considered center-left politically), 1 March 2022.  https://www.elespectador.com/mundo/america/la-influencia-rusa-en-america-latina-un-riesgo-para-colombia/

There is a lot of talk about disinformation that comes from abroad.  Yes, that is a real threat.  Not so much because of the penetration of vote counting systems in democratic countries, but because of the manipulation of the media, because of disinformation propaganda, because of the use of algorithms to send messages that confuse the voter and that create alarmist opinions.

Image Information:

Image caption:  A GLONASS or GPS personal device for satellite positioning.
Source:  https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:GLONASS_or_GPS_personal_device_NPI-2.jpg
Attribution:  Wikimedia

Some Latin American Countries Responsive to Russian Entreaties To Remain Silent on Ukraine War

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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.

“Russia said in December that escalating tensions over Ukraine could lead to a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis, when the world teetered on the brink of nuclear war.”

Many countries in Latin America opted to say little about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine because of their reticence to ruffle their relationships with Russia.  This relative silence is the result of persistent Russian attempts to cultivate influence with anti-Western Latin American leaders in the United States’ backyard as a way to counterbalance Western actions in what the Kremlin considers its sphere of influence.  Center-left Argentine news outlet Infobae reports that Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov visited the region and met with Russia’s most important allies in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba.  Borisov promised closer relations and greater “strategic depth” to Russia’s security cooperation.  In turn, the regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba have parroted Russian talking points about NATO and sanctions.  Further, Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro and Argentina’s president Alberto Fernández both visited Putin in Moscow shortly before the war, according to Spain’s politically left-leaning main daily El País.  Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov recently stated that Russia had the ability to deploy forces and equipment to Latin America through its security and cooperation agreements.  Russia’s pattern of outreach to Latin America is not new since its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022: similar diplomatic and military visits presaged Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 (then President Dmitri Medvedev) and its invasion of Crimea in 2014 (Putin himself).

Source:

“Rusia continúa estrechando lazos con las dictaduras latinoamericanas (Russia continues to strengthen ties with Latin American dictatorships),” Infobae (Argentine news outlet generally seen as center-left politically), 19 February 2022.  https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2022/02/19/rusia-continua-estrechando-lazos-con-las-dictaduras-latinoamericanas-el-viceprimer-ministro-de-putin-visito-cuba/ 

Borisov arrived on the island after visiting Nicaragua and Venezuela, Russia’s key allies in Latin America, and said Russia would also deepen bilateral ties with the two countries…Russia said in December that escalating tensions over Ukraine could lead to a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis, when the world teetered on the brink of nuclear war…Cuban dictator Miguel Díaz-Canel discussed coordinating a ‘strategic partnership’ with Putin in January, as tensions began to rise in Ukraine.

Source: “Ucrania, una guerra incómoda para Brasil y Argentina (Ukraine, an uncomfortable war for Brazil and Argentina),” El País (Spain’s main daily generally considered politically-left), 1 March 2022.  https://elpais.com/internacional/2022-03-02/ucrania-una-guerra-incomoda-para-brasil-y-argentina.html 

Bolsonaro’s Brazil and Fernández’s Argentina have been trying to remain neutral since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.  Only eight days had passed after the Brazilian president was received in Moscow by Vladimir Putin and twenty since a similar visit by the Argentine.  Both Latin American presidents then highlighted the good relations they maintain with the Kremlin.  But the war has turned everything upside down.  The diplomatic tension leaves little room for the grays, and both Bolsonaro and Fernández, located at the ideological poles, face domestic problems due to their international positioning.

Image Information:

Image caption:  Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.
Source:  Kremlin.ru via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vladimir_Putin_%26_Nicol%C3%A1s_Maduro_in_Tehran,_24_November_2015.jpg
Attribution:  CC BY 4.0

Peruvian President Castillo Oversees Dizzying Turnover in Government

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The swearing-in of Peruvian President Pedro Castillo.

The swearing-in of Peruvian President Pedro Castillo.

“Castillo also recalled the political instability that Peru has experienced in the last five years, where there have been up to four presidents and a dissolved Congress.”

Peru’s President, Pedro Castillo, has had trouble retaining ministers.  Castillo announced yet another new cabinet—the fourth in his six-month tenure, according to Spanish-language CNN en Español.  Such rapid cabinet turnover has contributed to a sense of chaos engulfing the country and mounting questions over the president’s ability to survive the rest of his term.  Castillo’s approval ratings have fallen steadily since his inauguration.  Shortly after swearing in the new cabinet, the Spanish-language version of the popular British outlet BBC en Español, began reporting on scandals in the personal lives of newly appointed ministers.  The outlet reports that the hoped for centrist cabinet did not materialize; rather, most of Castillo’s chosen ministers are loyalists and Marxists from his Free Peru Party.  In recent years, Peru’s political climate has been highly volatile.  Presidents have rarely finished their terms.  In 2020, the country had three presidents in just one week.  Peru’s constitution pits the Congress against the President, with the Congress capable of impeaching the president for the vague and ill-defined idea of “moral incapacity.”  Peru’s political instability has the potential to spill over into international supply chains: the country is the second largest producer of copper in the world, and the sector has seen recent strikes at mining sites connected to the political environment.

Source:

“Pedro Castillo anuncia que nombrará a nuevo gabinete, su cuarto en seis meses (Pedro Castillo announces that he will appoint a new cabinet, his fourth in six months),” CNN en Español (Spanish-language version of the popular U.S. outlet), 4 February 2022.  https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2022/02/04/pedro-castillo-el-presidente-de-peru-anuncia-que-nombrara-a-nuevo-gabinete-su-cuarto-en-seis-meses-orix/   

Castillo will appoint a new president of the Council of Ministers, who, in turn, will appoint new heads of ministries.  It will be the fourth cabinet in just six months of government…Castillo also recalled the political instability that Peru has experienced in the last five years, where there have been up to four presidents and a dissolved Congress, and said that citizens, especially the poorest “do not want to see more confrontations, nor obstructionist and anti-democratic behavior, nor vacancy announcements, announcements of the closing of Congress.”

Source:  “Pedro Castillo nombra su cuarto gabinete en 6 meses, ¿por qué no consigue estabilizar a Perú? (Pedro Castillo appoints his fourth cabinet in 6 months, why can’t he stabilize Peru?),” BBC en Español (Spanish-language version of the popular British outlet), 5 February 2022.  https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-60269518

The last government of Peru lasted just over 72 hours.  The ministerial cabinet that was sworn in by President Pedro Castillo on Tuesday, the fourth government in six months, is expected to last a little longer…The truth is that the short life of Castillo’s cabinets has exposed the instability that has characterized his presidency.  Since he came to power against all odds, Castillo has alternated executives of diverse orientation, which has led his critics to accuse him of leading the country in an erratic direction, and several of his ministers had to resign in the midst of the scandal and challenged in Congress.

Image Information:

Image caption:  The swearing-in of Peruvian President Pedro Castillo.
Source:  Flickr, https://www.flickr.com/photos/presidenciaperu/51340618647
Attribution: CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

Colombia’s Constitutional Court Halts Push for Aerial Spraying of Coca Crop

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Aerial spraying of glyphosate.

Aerial spraying of glyphosate.

“The environmental authority could not make a decision about the modification… without first carrying out the process of prior consultation with all the ethnic communities likely to be affected by the spraying activity.”

In January, Colombia’s constitutional court halted President Iván Duque’s plan to return to aerial spraying of glyphosate as a means of eradicating coca.  According to an article posted in one of Colombia’s oldest dailies El Tiempo, the court stopped the order because the Colombian state had not sufficiently guaranteed the communities impacted by the decision to return to aerial spraying the right to prior consultation.  Prior consultation is a process that will take many months to complete, effectively shelving the decision on aerial spraying.  Environmental authorities, in conjunction with the police, will have to complete this process in accordance with regulations set forth by the constitutional court, according to center-leftArgentine news outlet Infobae.  The outlet states that in 2020, Colombia had nearly 150,000 hectares of coca cultivation.  Despite intensifying a program of manual coca crop eradication after signing a peace deal with guerrillas in 2016, Colombian officials want to return to aerial eradication to deal with a resurgence in violence and drug trafficking.  The timeline for a final decision outlined by the court kicks the decision into the ongoing presidential election, forcing candidates to debate the issue.  It also comes at a time when Colombia’s instability is high and its violence surging due to the expansion of drug trafficking activity along the border regions with Venezuela.

Source:

“Glifosato: Corte tumba plan de manejo ambiental y ordena consulta previa (Glyphosate: Court buries environmental management plan and orders prior consultation),” El Tiempo (one of Colombia’s oldest dailies generally described as politically-centrist), 20 January 2022.  https://www.eltiempo.com/justicia/cortes/glifosato-corte-tumba-plan-de-manejo-ambiental-y-ordena-consulta-previa-645910  

The environmental authority could not make a decision about the modification… without first carrying out the process of prior consultation with all the ethnic communities likely to be affected by the spraying activity, taking into account that the court itself noticed partial overlaps between these groups and the areas of influence of the project… The Court determined that in the process, in effect, the right to participation of the peasant communities residing in the municipalities where the program will eventually be carried out was ignored.

Source:  “Corte frustra planes de Duque de reanudar fumigaciones antidrogas en Colombia (Court frustrates Duque’s plans to resume anti-drug spraying in Colombia),” Infobae (Argentine news outlet generally seen as center-left politically), 19 January 2022.  https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2022/01/19/corte-frustra-planes-de-duque-de-reanudar-fumigaciones-antidrogas-en-colombia/   

In 2020, Colombia had 143,000 hectares of coca, the plant that serves as the raw material for cocaine, according to the most recent UN report.  The government, which links drug trafficking with the resurgence of violence after the peace process with the Marxist guerrillas in 2016, intensified the program of manual eradication of drug crops.  However, the government insisted on the need to fumigate with glyphosate to significantly reduce the cultivation area.

Image Information:

Image caption:  Aerial spraying of glyphosate. 
Source: Carolyn Parsons via Wikimedia,  https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Palouse_Aerial_Spraying_02.jpg
Attribution:  CC BY-SA 4.0

Guerrilla Groups Continue To Threaten Colombia Along Border with Venezuela

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Members of Colombia’s National Liberation Army, which operates along the border area between Colombia and Venezuela, pose with their weapons.

Members of Colombia’s National Liberation Army, which operates along the border area between Colombia and Venezuela, pose with their weapons.

“Very early in 2022, the horror of the war showed its face again in Arauca, where not only have the effects of peace with the FARC not been seen, but, on the contrary, violence has reached levels of the crudest stages of the armed conflict.”

The border region between Colombia and Venezuela is experiencing some of its worst violence in years.  Since 2 January 2022, several dozen have died in what could be a series of contract killings, according to center-left Colombian daily El Espectador.  The daily states that originally, Colombian prosecutors suspected the dead were members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a guerrilla group operating along the border, contesting territory with the National Liberation Army (ELN), another prominent guerrilla group.  According to an article in the politically centrist Colombian daily El Tiempo, Colombian President Iván Duque has increased the troop presence in the border region to combat drug trafficking and establish greater state presence in these remote stretches. 

Violence along the border between Colombia and Venezuela is certainly nothing new.  However, this flare-up is a reminder of the criminal sanctuary provided to Colombia’s FARC and ELN by the Maduro regime in Venezuela, and the instability fomented throughout Latin America by the actions of these groups.  Unlike previous flare-ups in Apure state in Venezuela, these incidents have not led to migratory flows but underscore that Colombia has yet to realize fully the fruits of its demobilization efforts with guerrilla groups.  Lastly, with Colombia’s presidential election slated for May 2022, guerrilla groups and demobilization efforts will be key issues in the campaign.

Source:

“No hubo Combate:” Fiscalía elevó a 27 los muertos en Arauca y dio nueva hipótesis (There was no combat:” Prosecutor’s Office raised the dead in Arauca to 27 and gave a new hypothesis),” El Espectador (Colombian daily generally considered to be center-left in its political orientation), 5 January 2022.  https://www.elespectador.com/judicial/no-hubo-combate-fiscalia-elevo-a-27-los-muertos-en-arauca-y-dio-nueva-hipotesis/   

Since January 2, 27 dead have been found in different rural areas of Arauca, the Prosecutor’s Office reported on Wednesday.  The attorney general, Francisco Barbosa, provided a new hypothesis based on what investigators have found in the field and in the autopsies of the deceased: apparently, there were no combats, but the people were murdered in the form of contract killers.

Source:  “Muerte en la frontera (Death on the Border),” El Tiempo (one of Colombia’s oldest dailies generally described as politically-centrist), 4 January 2022.  https://www.eltiempo.com/opinion/editorial/muerte-en-la-frontera-editorial-el-tiempo-643053 

Early in 2022, the horror of the war showed its face again in Arauca, where not only have the effects of peace with the FARC not been seen, but, on the contrary, violence has reached levels of the crudest stages of the armed conflict…All this within the framework of the complicity, when not open participation in the crime, of the authorities of the Nicolás Maduro regime…Understanding the challenge posed by the natural conditions of the border and the lack of collaboration from the authorities on the other side to curb crime, it is clear that more efficient efforts and strategies are still needed.

Image Information:

Image:  Members of Colombia’s National Liberation Army, which operates along the border area between Colombia and Venezuela, pose with their weapons.
Source:  https://www.flickr.com/photos/brasildefato/32317009638
Attribution:  Flickr

China Strengthening Position in Central America with Recognition by Nicaragua

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Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen attends the inauguration of Daniel Ortega in 2017.

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen attends the inauguration of Daniel Ortega in 2017.

“The reestablishment of relations with the People’s Republic of China is the conjunction of several circumstances: a Chinese escalation in the diplomatic battle between Beijing and Taipei; the interest of the Asian giant to consolidate in Central America; and the ‘logical’ alliance of Daniel Ortega with a single-party regime.”

At the end of 2021, Nicaragua’s dictator Daniel Ortega announced that his country would recognize China after severing over 30 years of diplomatic relations with Taiwan (See “Nicaragua’s Ortega Consolidating Dictatorship with Russian and Chinese Backing,” OE Watch, 1 2022).  One of the country’s oldest dailies, Confidencial, states that the diplomatic switch should be viewed through the lens of China’s escalating attempts to curtail Taiwan’s diplomatic relations; increasing Chinese interest in Central America; and an ideological alliance with Ortega, who also runs a single-party regime.  The move gives China momentum in terms of developing deeper relations in the region.  Panama and El Salvador have ruptured relations with Taiwan, and the election of Xiomara Castro in Honduras could see a similar maneuver in the coming months.  If Castro follows through on her campaign pledge to drop Taiwan, Guatemala and Belize would remain the only two countries in Central America to recognize Taiwan, potentially tipping the geopolitical balance decisively in favor of China.

Nicaragua now counts China, Russia, and Iran among its closest allies.  Another Confidencial article speculates that Ortega seeks to buffer against international isolation by recognizing China, something his existing relationships with Russia, Iran, North Korea, and others cannot provide.  The outlet reports that Ortega will seek financing and export markets in China, especially in the face of international financial pressure and sanctions. 

Source:

“Ortega se adelanta a Ley Renacer y suspensión del CAFTA al alinearse con China (Ortega anticipates the Renacer Law and suspension of CAFTA by aligning himself with China),” Confidencial (one of the country’s oldest dailies still operating), 18 December 2021.  https://www.confidencial.com.ni/economia/ortega-se-adelanta-a-ley-renacer-y-suspension-del-cafta-al-alinearse-con-china/

In addition to challenging the United States, Ortega is also looking for options in the face of the… Renacer Law… excluding Nicaragua from the free trade agreement (CAFTA), and that Europe does the same with the Association Agreement, which would make Nicaraguan exports to both markets much more expensive.

Source:  “La “afinidad” de Ortega con China es que el gigante asiático tiene “un régimen de un solo partido” (Ortega’s “affinity” with China is that the Asian giant has “a one-party regime”),” Confidencial (one of the country’s oldest dailies still operating), 16 December 2022.  https://www.eltiempo.com/opinion/editorial/muerte-en-la-frontera-editorial-el-tiempo-643053 

The reestablishment of relations with the People’s Republic of China is the conjunction of several circumstances: a Chinese escalation in the diplomatic battle between Beijing and Taipei; the interest of the Asian giant to consolidate in Central America; and the ‘logical’ alliance of Daniel Ortega with a single-party regime.

Image Information:

Image:  Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen attends the inauguration of Daniel Ortega in 2017.
Source:  https://www.flickr.com/photos/presidentialoffice/31429913323
Attribution:  Flickr

FARC Dissident Groups’ High-Level Leaders Killed

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Colombian FARC dissident, Iván Márquez, is the most significant remaining leader of the Second Marquetalia.

Colombian FARC dissident, Iván Márquez, is the most significant remaining leader of the Second Marquetalia.

“Although so far no evidence is known in this regard, the deaths of both dissident leaders occurred very close to the border with Colombia…However, the authorities do not rule out any theory.”

Colombia’s continued struggle against dissidents of the now-disbanded Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) communist guerrilla group has achieved notable successes of late.  Darío Velásquez, alias “El Paisa,” and Henry Castellanos Garzón, alias “Romaña,” were killed in separate shootouts in Venezuela, according to Medellin-based daily newspaper El Colombiano.  Both were high-ranking commanders in the FARC guerrilla group, known as the Second Marquetalia, who continued their struggle against the Colombian state after the broader group signed the 2016 peace accords with the Colombian government.  The outlet reminds readers that the deaths come on the heels of the killing of Seuxis Pausias Hernández Solarte, alias “Jesús Santrich,” another prominent commander of the Second Marquetalia killed recently in Venezuela.  This leaves Iván Márquez alone in his struggle to maintain the relevance of the Second Marquetalia. Although conflict along the Colombia-Venezuela border is nothing new, the intensity and number of actors involved is increasing, according to Columbia’s politically centrist daily El Tiempo.  Numerous groups have flocked to the area for a lucrative slice of Venezuela’s illicit economies.  El Tiempo reports the presence of several Colombian guerrilla groups, drug trafficking groups, and Venezuelan security groups.  The vacuum left by the deaths of Paisa and Romaña is a significant blow to the Second Marquetalia and has created room for other groups to compete for territory.  Further, while the Colombian state claims victory, it is unclear whether Colombian state security forces had a hand in the deaths of Paisa and Romaña.  The possibility that the two were killed by rival groups and not by Colombia’s security forces speaks to the shifting realities of the border area as a corridor for illicit goods.

Source:

“Romaña, El Paisa y Santrich: en 6 meses cayeron tres narcos de exFarc en Venezuela (Romaña, El Paisa and Santrich: in 6 months three ex-FARC drug traffickers fell in Venezuela),” El Colombiano (the major daily of the city of Medellín), 8 December 2021.  https://www.elcolombiano.com/colombia/muerte-de-romana-revela-cruel-guerra-por-coca-en-venezuela-PE16129372

Both Romaña and El Paisa supported Márquez in the creation of the so-called Second Marquetalia—announced in August 2019—to return to arms under the excuse of non-compliance by the government with the agreement.  But with the death of these two former members of the former Secretariat, and the murder of alias Jesús Santrich in May 2021, Márquez is left alone.

Source:  “Las hipótesis sobre la autoría de los ataques a ‘Romaña’ y ‘el Paisa’ (The hypotheses about the origin of the attacks on ‘Romaña’ and ‘El Paisa’),” El Tiempo (one of Colombia’s oldest dailies generally described as politically-centrist), 9 December 2021.  https://www.eltiempo.com/justicia/conflicto-y-narcotrafico/romana-y-el-paisa-las-hipotesis-sobre-quienes-mataron-a-los-disidentes-637796   

The first hypothesis, of which the Colombian Public Force has spoken, is that they died at the hands of another dissident group…second, it has been said that they could have been assassinated by their own men…there is also another possible scenario: that the deaths were caused by Colombian forces…Although so far no evidence is known in this regard, the deaths of both dissident leaders occurred very close to the border with Colombia…However, the authorities do not rule out any theory.

Image Information:

Image:  Colombian FARC dissident, Iván Márquez, is the most significant remaining leader of the Second Marquetalia.
Source:  https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ivan-Marquez-GoraHerria.jpg
Attribution:  Wikimedia

Honduras Election Likely To Expand China’s Geopolitical Footprint

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President-elect Xiomara Castro of Honduras campaigned on opening diplomatic relations with China.

President-elect Xiomara Castro of Honduras campaigned on opening diplomatic relations with China.

“Could the new left-wing Honduran executive repeat patterns that led to situations similar to those before the 2009 coup?…Another question is whether the new Honduran government will bet on strengthening relations with left-wing Latin American governments…Castro also intends to establish relations with mainland China.”

The most recent elections in Honduras could have outsized implications for geopolitics and emerging great power rivalry.  In late November, Hondurans voted overwhelmingly in favor of Xiomara Castro, wife of deposed president Manuel Zelaya, in a vote that broke the Honduran Nationalist Party’s hold on power.  The generally center-left Argentinian daily Clarín reports that the election set a record for participation and votes cast.  The outlet also reports that the post-election violence and accusations of fraud expected by some analysts, based on previous elections, did not come to pass.  The Spanish-language outlet of the British news agency BBC Americas, highlights the similarities and differences between Castro’s left-wing Libre Party and left-wing parties in the past.  It also highlights Castro’s campaign pledge to open relations with China and break relations with Taiwan as a major point of potential friction with profound ramifications.  Xiomara’s promise to open relations with China and end relations with Taiwan would follow a wave of similar announcements in Central America.  After Panama broke relations with Taiwan in 2017, El Salvador and Nicaragua have since followed.  If Castro follows through on her pledge, Guatemala and Belize would remain the only two countries in Central America to recognize Taiwan, tipping the geopolitical balance decisively in favor of China.  Further, Xiomara has pledged independence from her husband and his former administration, whose time in office was marked by close relations with Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, as well as controversial steps to weaken institutions and rewrite the country’s constitution.  Should Xiomara seek to develop similar relationships and pursue similar policies, it will contribute to Latin America’s leftward political trajectory and could be deleterious to the region’s already feeble democracies.

Source:

“Xiomara Castro se encamina a ser la nueva presidenta de Honduras (Xiomara Castro is on the way to being the new president of Honduras),” Clarín (the largest daily in Argentina and generally described as center-left), 28 November 2021.  https://www.clarin.com/mundo/cerraron-urnas-honduras-final-incierto-ex-primera-dama-oficialismo_0_m6V1ox0TE.html 

Fears of fraud, something that the opposition already denounced in the previous elections of 2017…fuel tensions…Current President Hernández managed to get reelected amid accusations of fraud by the opposition and international observers.  That unleashed a wave of protests and state repression that left some thirty dead.

Source:  “Xiomara Castro: en qué se diferencia la izquierda que regresa al poder en Honduras de la que fue derrocada por un golpe en 2009? (Xiomara Castro: how is the left that returns to power in Honduras different from the one that was overthrown by a coup in 2009?),” BBC Americas (the Spanish-language outlet of the British news agency), 1 December 2021.  https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-59486468

Could the new left-wing Honduran executive repeat patterns that led to situations similar to those before the 2009 coup?…Another question is whether the new Honduran government will bet on strengthening relations with left-wing Latin American governments…Castro also intends to establish relations with mainland China.

Image Information:

Image caption:  President-elect Xiomara Castro of Honduras campaigned on opening diplomatic relations with China.
Source:  https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Xiomara_Castro_on_August_07,_2007_(cropped).jpg
Attribution:  Wikimedia

Nicaragua’s Ortega Consolidating Dictatorship with Russian and Chinese Backing

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Nicaraguan Foreign Minister, Denis Moncada, speaks to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrob.

Nicaraguan Foreign Minister, Denis Moncada, speaks to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrob.

“For years, the Russian government has been focused on occupying Nicaragua as a platform for cyber and electronic operations… This agreement is a delivery of the country’s security to the Russians.”

Nicaragua held presidential elections in early November under highly repressive conditions, with seven major opposition candidates imprisoned and hundreds of political prisoners.  Incumbent President Daniel Ortega ran practically unopposed.  Pre-election polls revealed that majorities of Nicaraguans would have voted for an opposition candidate over Ortega if given the chance.  Facing international isolation, a significant element of Ortega’s survival strategy leans on extra-hemispheric actors, including Russia, for support.  Spanish-language digital military journal Diálogo relays that Nicaragua’s National Assembly recently ratified an agreement to permit Russia a larger role in Nicaragua’s cyberspace.  Russia has promised to help Nicaragua monitor its cyber domain, which includes bringing forth evidence that would fall under the country’s repressive “cybercrimes” legislation, reports the outlet.  Most recently, according to popular U.S. Spanish-language outlet CNN Español, Nicaragua announced official relations with China, dropping diplomatic recognition of Taiwan. Facing criticism from much of the international community, the Ortega regime is eager to bolster its hold on power by deepening its partnership with Russia and China.  Further, given that the country’s opposition has used the internet to criticize and to organize itself politically (including in exile abroad), authoritarian great power rivals could ensure Ortega a much greater level of control over the domestic security apparatus.  As Ortega becomes increasingly isolated and desperate, Nicaragua will likely become an important platform for rivals to project power.

Source:

“Nicaragua rompe relaciones diplomáticas con Taiwán y solo reconoce a China

(Nicaragua breaks diplomatic relations with Taiwan and only recognizes China),” CNN Español (the Spanish-language outlet of the popular U.S. outlet), 9 December 2021.  https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2021/12/09/nicaragua-taiwan-china-orix/

The Nicaraguan government decided to break relations with Taiwan and will only recognize China, as announced by Foreign Minister Denis Moncada at a press conference this afternoon…Nicaragua’s announcement leaves just over a dozen countries around the world with official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, including Honduras and Guatemala.

Source:  “Rusia interviene en seguridad informática de Nicaragua (Russia intervenes in Nicaraguan IT security),” Diálogo (a Spanish-language digital military journal), 15 October 2021.  https://dialogo-americas.com/es/articles/rusia-interviene-en-seguridad-informatica-de-nicaragua/#.YWnYwxrMI2y  

For years, the Russian government has been focused on occupying Nicaragua as a platform for cyber and electronic operations…This agreement is a delivery of the country’s security to the Russians…and it will serve to launch, from a closer place in the hemisphere, cyber-attacks or interference in elections.

Image Information:

Image caption:  Nicaraguan Foreign Minister, Denis Moncada, speaks to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrob.
Source:  https://www.flickr.com/photos/mfarussia/49212557647/
Attribution:  Flickr