Author Archives: Ray Finch

Russian Media Source Blames United States for Russian “Brain Drain”

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“Will the United States be able to weaken Russia by poaching its best specialists?”

An increasing number of Russians, often among the country’s best and brightest, have emigrated in recent years as the Kremlin’s domestic policies have become more repressive.  These self-exiled Russians believe they can better realize their potential in countries with a more transparent political system, better legal guarantees, and greater opportunities to exercise personal freedom.  This “brain drain” has become an even more acute problem for the Kremlin since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  According to the opposition media source Meduza, nearly 150,000 peoplehave emigrated from Russia since 24 February.  Rather than examining the domestic reasons for leaving Russia, some pro-Kremlin media blame the United States for this exodus.  Citing a recent Chinese article, the second excerpt from the semi-independentsite Nezavisimaya Gazeta claims that the United States has “created a brain drain trend using it as a tool to weaken Russia.”  According to the author, “Washington is trying to facilitate the transfer to the United States of the best Russian specialists with experience in semiconductors, space technology, cybersecurity, nuclear engineering, artificial intelligence, and other specialized scientific fields.”  Given this trend, the Kremlin may soon develop policies to restrict its most qualified citizens from leaving Russia.

Sources:

Kristina Safonova, “Сколько людей уехало из России из-за войны? (How many people left Russia because of the war?),” Meduza (opposition news source), 7 May 2022. https://meduza.io/feature/2022/05/07/skolko-lyudey-uehalo-iz-rossii-iz-za-voyny-oni-uzhe-nikogda-ne-vernutsya-mozhno-li-eto-schitat-ocherednoy-volnoy-emigratsii

Is it possible to estimate how many people left Russia after February 24?

Julia Florinskaya: I don’t have any estimates – neither accurate nor inaccurate. It’s more of an order of numbers. My order of numbers is about 150 thousand people.

Source: Tatyana Popova, “Организация «утечки мозгов» как новое глобальное оружие США (Organization of brain drain as a new global weapon of the United States),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (semi-independent), 5 May 2022. https://www.ng.ru/world/2022-05-05/100_usa050522.html

Will the United States be able to weaken Russia by poaching its best specialists?

The United States of America intends to prevent the development of high technologies in Russia and in parallel to improve its economy, using special tactics, say the authors of the Chinese daily newspaper Global Times. …Washington is trying to facilitate the transfer to the United States of the best Russian specialists with experience in semiconductors, space technology, cybersecurity, nuclear engineering, artificial intelligence, space technology and other specialized scientific fields…. …According to the newspaper, the statement that the United States “wants to see Russia weakened” reveals the true intentions of the United States…. The US creates a brain drain trend using it as a tool to weaken Russia. The consequences of the mass exodus of specialists (scientists and engineers) from the country are obvious – this process undermines the foundation of national economic and military development. …However, it is clear that the US is determined to weaken Russia.

Russian WWII Veteran Benefits Lag Behind Those in Central Asia

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“It is noteworthy that one-time payments to Russian veterans are many times less than similar assistance to their fellow soldiers living in the Asian republics of the former USSR….”

As the brief excerpted article in the semi-independent Nezavisimaya Gazeta indicates, Kremlin rhetoric regarding the debt owed to World War II (WWII) veterans far outweighs the reality of the low pay they receive.  Russia’s annual Victory Day commemoration on 9 May has become the apotheosis and driving force behind current Kremlin ideology.  The Soviet Union’s triumph over Nazi Germany in the what the Russian’s know as the “Great Patriotic War” now serves as the bellicose prism through which the Kremlin view themselves and the world.  Just as the Soviet Union saved the world from fascism in the early 1940s, so today, according to Kremlin propaganda, brave Russian soldiers are fighting Nazism in Ukraine.  Given the central importance of this holiday and the current conflict, one might assume that the Kremlin would understand the importance of demonstrating its gratitude to those few surviving Russian veterans.  However, the article showed an unflattering comparison between the annual benefits provided to surviving WWII veterans in Russia and four Central Asian countries: Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.  For instance, in 2022, “10 thousand rubles [$154] were transferred to the 20,320 [remaining WWII] veterans in the Russian Federation.”  Although the Central Asian economies are much smaller than Russia’s, they provided a significantly larger veteran benefit.  Uzbekistan provided $1,339; Kyrgyzstan paid $1,209; Kazakhstan paid $2,400; and Tajikistan provided $234 to its veterans.  Given the Kremlin’s increasingly heavy-handed regulation of Russia’s media environment, this issue bears further monitoring to see if it gains traction among the Russian public and may provide some opening to combat the Kremlin’s domestic misinformation campaign.

Source:

Mikhail Sergeev, “Участники ВОВ в России получат в 9 раз меньше, чем в Узбекистане и Киргизии (Participants of the Second World War in Russia will receive 9 times less than in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (semi-independent), 4 May 2022. https://www.ng.ru/economics/2022-05-04/100_e04052022_1.html

Comparison of veterans’ payments for Victory Day…On the anniversary of the Victory, participants in the Great Patriotic War living in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Lugansk People’s Republic and the liberated territories of Ukraine will receive a one-time payment of 10,000 Russian rubles by decree of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The same amount will be received by veterans living in the territory of the Russian Federation. Annual payments for Victory Day in the amount of 10 thousand rubles were transferred to 20,320 veterans in the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Labor reported…

It is noteworthy that one-time payments to Russian veterans are many times less than similar assistance to their fellow soldiers living in the Asian republics of the former USSR…. In Uzbekistan, for example, war veterans, concentration camp prisoners and Leningrad blockade survivors will each receive 15 million soums (equivalent to 1,339 US dollars or more than 93,000 Russian rubles)…. In Kyrgyzstan, the veterans’ payment for Victory Day will amount to 100,000 soms ($1,209 or almost 85,000 Russian rubles)…. 

In Kazakhstan, the size of veterans’ payments for Victory Day varies depending on the region of residence and the special status of the recipient. Thus, veterans of the Great Patriotic War living in Nur-Sultan and Almaty will receive 1 million tenge (156 thousand Russian rubles) each, and in Aktobe – 2 million tenge (312 thousand Russian rubles).So the difference in the amount of veterans’ payments even increased this year. Last year, NG wrote that “soldiers living in Kazakhstan will receive 17 times more than their Russian fellow soldiers.” And today you can name another difference – 31 times more than in the Russian Federation….

Russian Culture Ministry Proposes Possible Framework for New State Ideology

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“… In general, the document, with a certain interpretation, limits the rights and freedoms of a person prescribed in the Constitution, dictating both the way of thinking and the way of life.”

Even though the Russian constitution states that “no ideology may be established as state or obligatory,” the current Kremlin leadership continues to advance the parameters of a possible official state ideology.  The first excerpt from Russia’s official news agency, TASS, describes how the Ministry of Culture has submitted for public discussion the Fundamentals of State Policy for the Preservation and Strengthening of Traditional Russian Spiritual and Moral Values.  The article reports this proposed draft policy document “refers to a number of traditional values ​​(e.g., life, dignity, human rights and freedoms, patriotism, citizenship, service to the Fatherland…, high moral ideals, a strong family, creative work, the priority of the spiritual over the material…),” designed to strengthen Russia.  Besides listing these aspirational values, the document also identifies the dangers facing modern Russia, calling out “threats to traditional values [to include]… extremist and terrorist organizations, the actions of the United States and its allies, transnational corporations, and foreign non-profit organizations.”

The second excerpt from an editorial in the mostly independent Nezavisimaya Gazeta questions the value of such a document, suggesting that it “is reminiscent of the ideological practices of the times of the USSR.”  As this article points out, just as in Soviet times, the new document makes “it necessary for citizens to see an ideological enemy everywhere and oppose personal interests to state interests.”  The article concludes by asserting that this proposed policy “limits the rights and freedoms of a person prescribed in the Constitution, dictating both the way of thinking and the way of life.”  While this proposed document is designed to guide those involved with cultural pursuits, its impact may ultimately be felt throughout Russian society should the Kremlin approve it.

Source:

“Основы госполитики по сохранению традиционных ценностей обсудят с экспертами (Fundamentals of state policy for the preservation of traditional values ​​will be discussed with experts),” TASS (official news agency), 25 January 2022. https://tass.ru/kultura/13522119

The published version of the Fundamentals of State Policy for the Preservation and Strengthening of Traditional Russian Spiritual and Moral Values ​​is not final, the proposals will be discussed at the platforms of the upper and lower houses of parliament, in the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation and in other instances…. 

In the current version, the document, posted on the federal portal of draft regulatory legal acts, refers to the number of traditional values ​​“life, dignity, human rights and freedoms, patriotism, citizenship, service to the Fatherland and responsibility for its destiny, high moral ideals, a strong family, creative work, the priority of the spiritual over the material, humanism, mercy, justice, collectivism, mutual assistance and mutual respect, historical memory and the continuity of generations, the unity of the peoples of Russia.” Threats to traditional values, according to the authors of the project, “bears the activities of extremist and terrorist organizations, the actions of the United States and its allies, transnational corporations, foreign non-profit organizations….”

Source: “Минкультуры возвращает россиян во времена СССР (The Ministry of Culture returns Russians to Soviet times),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (mostly independent Russian media outlet), 27 January 2022. https://www.ng.ru/editorial/2022-01-27/2_8357_editorial.html

Is it necessary for citizens to see an ideological enemy everywhere and oppose personal interests to state interests?

A draft presidential decree “Fundamentals of State Policy for the Preservation and Strengthening of Traditional Russian Spiritual and Moral Values” developed by the Ministry of Culture has been submitted for public discussion. The document is intended to clarify the concept of traditional values ​​within the framework of the National Security Strategy approved by the President….

… The threat to these values, according to the authors of the document, is “the activities of extremist and terrorist organizations, the actions of the United States and its allies, transnational corporations, foreign non-profit organizations.” The document notes “the ideological and psychological impact on the citizens of Russia”, and this destructive ideology includes “the cult of selfishness, permissiveness, immorality, the denial of the ideals of patriotism, service to the Fatherland, procreation, creative labor, Russia’s positive contribution to world history and culture…”

… All this is reminiscent of the ideological practices of the times of the USSR. Then the citizens were also designated the image of the enemy and demanded that they meet “high criteria….”  The personal is opposed to the public: the primary are the needs of the state (serving the Fatherland), while the private (the cult of selfishness) are secondary.… In general, the document, with a certain interpretation, limits the rights and freedoms of a person prescribed in the Constitution, dictating both the way of thinking and the way of life.

Kremlin Using Education Policy To Foster Approval of Its “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine

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“The children of the soldiers who died in the special operation in Ukraine will be able to study free of charge at the Russian State Social University (RGSU).” 

Alongside its extensive media arsenal to maintain public support for the “special military operation” in Ukraine, the Kremlin has also mobilized its educational system.  As the first excerpt from the Moscow regional source M24 points out, children of Russian service personnel who have died fighting in this operation “will be able to study free of charge at the Russian State Social University (RGSU).”  The article posits that this education initiative might expand to include the “country’s leading universities, [which] will support our initiative and accept educational certificates from the RGSU as an exchange basis for free education.”  Meanwhile, the Ministry of Education (MoE) continues to develop mandatory courses for school-aged children to ensure that they understand the Kremlin’s narrative surrounding this operation.  In addition to grasping the Kremlin’s historical justification (see: “Teaching Russian School Children about Ukraine,” OE Watch, April 2022), the brief excerpt from the pro-business site Kommersant describes how the MoE has now developed school lessons covering both Western sanctions and import substitution.  The article stresses that “the teacher should show Russia’s ability to overcome the negative consequences of Western countries’ sanctions pressure on the economic sphere of our society.” According to the article, “teachers should tell children about the benefits of import substitution,” and how this program will strengthen the Russian economy.  The article concludes by citing economic experts asked to gauge the effectiveness of such lessons.  One skeptical expert commented, “in the summer, or certainly in the fall, the children will come home and see for themselves that the family has no money, that there is no way to buy any goods.”

Source:

“Дети погибших в спецоперации на Украине военных получат бесплатное образование в РГСУ (Children of soldiers who died in a special operation in Ukraine will receive free education at the RGSU),” M24.ru (Moscow based regional news outlet), 26 March 2022. https://www.m24.ru/news/obrazovanie/26032022/444852

The children of the soldiers who died in the special operation in Ukraine will be able to study free of charge at the Russian State Social University (RGSU). This was reported on the official website of the university….

…The university expressed the hope that other Russian universities would also support the initiative, since the children of the military who died during the special operation may have different educational plans, including specialties that the RGSU does not teach.

“In such cases, we expect that other Russian state educational institutions chosen by them, including the country’s leading universities, will support our initiative and accept educational certificates from the RGSU as an exchange basis for free education,” the Russian State Social University concluded.

Source: Anna Vasilyeva, Maria Starikova, Olga Nikitina; Vlad Nikiforov, Alexander Dremlyugin,“Школам завезли антисанкционки (Anti-sanctions brought to schools),” Kommersant (Russian pro-business news media), 5 April 2022. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5293728

As it became known to Kommersant, Russian schools received new recommendations on conducting special lessons against the backdrop of a “special military operation” in Ukraine. This time, teachers should organize classes for students in grades 5–9 and 10–11 on the topic “Anti-Russian sanctions and their impact on the domestic economy.” In the training manual, this “influence” is presented as rather positive – schoolchildren will be told about the growth in the share of Russian products in several areas, and then they will be asked to assess which countries will suffer large economic losses from sanctions…. 

…As stated in the training manual, the teacher should “show Russia’s ability to overcome the negative consequences of Western countries’ sanctions pressure on the economic sphere of our society, give an idea of ​​the main directions of the anti-sanctions policy in the Russian Federation.” Teachers should tell children about the benefits of import substitution….

“The lesson materials invite schoolchildren to familiarize themselves with the measures taken by the president and the government to counter sanctions from unfriendly countries,” the Ministry of Education told Kommersant….

…Kommersant asked economists to comment on the manual. Natalya Zubarevich, a specialist in the field of socio-economic development of the regions, refused to study it. “Why should I read these manuals? And so it is clear that we will lose the most advanced technological industries,” she told Kommersant. “In the summer, or certainly in the fall, the children will come home and see for themselves that the family has no money, that there is no way to buy any goods.”

More Wonder Weapons on Russia’s Drawing Board

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Peresvet Military Laser System.

Peresvet Military Laser System.

“The State Weapons Program (SWP) will focus on the creation of non-traditional types of weapons, including directed energy weapons, kinetic weapons, as well as artificial intelligence control systems and robotic systems.”

Despite military setbacks in Ukraine, Russia’s military industry (VPK) remains dedicated to developing military prowess, according to the excerpted article from the somewhat independent Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obezreniye.  Over the past decade, the Kremlin has focused on military modernization and improved combat capabilities, frequently demonstrating and asserting that the Russian armed forces are now a formidable power.  Perceived military superiority was likely a key factor underpinning the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine in late February 2022.  After the past couple months, however, maintaining this façade of military dominance has become more challenging.  

The article describes a recent meeting between President Putin and Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov, during which they discussed the upcoming State Weapons Program.  According to the article, Russia’s military industry remains on the cusp of “the creation of non-traditional types of weapons, including directed energy weapons, kinetic weapons, as well as artificial intelligence control systems and robotic systems.”  While the article omits the possible effects of Western economic sanctions on Russia’s military industry, it does provide examples of new weapons allowing Russia “to deliver massive strikes against enemy [Ukraine] infrastructure.”  The article also notes that “in December 2019, the world’s first really working combat laser system ‘Peresvet’ was put on combat duty,” but admits that there are questions surrounding its capabilities.  The article concludes by referring to developments in “robotics and artificial intelligence systems,” claiming that “large-scale work is underway in Russia to create ‘soulless’ combat units.”

Source:

“Разящая кинетика, направленное действие, искусственный интеллект (Breaking kinetics, directed action, artificial intelligence),” Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obezreniye (NVO-Independent Military Observer; somewhat independent), 7 April 2022. https://nvo.ng.ru/nvoweek/2022-04-07/2_1184_week.html

Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov promised the emergence of non-traditional weapons in Russia. The State Weapons Program (SWP) will focus on the creation of non-traditional types of weapons, including directed energy weapons, kinetic weapons, as well as artificial intelligence control systems and robotic systems. As reported on the Kremlin website, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov spoke about this at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. “The work on preparing the initial data for the next SAP has been completed, by mid-2023 it will be formed and submitted for approval.

…During the special operation in Ukraine, we are already talking about the effectiveness of using high-precision weapons. These are ship-based cruise missiles ‘Caliber,’ aviation Kh-555, Kh-101 and Dagger, which allow the country to deliver massive strikes against enemy infrastructure….

…However, Yuri Borisov speaks of a completely different level of weapons…. Another non-traditional direction could be laser weapons. In December 2019, the world’s first really working combat laser system ‘Peresvet’ was put on combat duty. There is still no exact understanding of whether it ‘burns or dazzles’ the optical instruments of air objects. But it is already obvious: the country is actively working on the development of this type of weapon….

Robotics and artificial intelligence systems are also a priority. If you look at the exposition of the exhibition-forum ‘Army’ in Kubinka near Moscow, it becomes obvious that large-scale work is underway in Russia to create ‘soulless’ combat units.

Image Information:

Image: Peresvet Military Laser System
Source: mil.ru
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0

Russian Orthodox Church Blesses “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine

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Interior of Main Military Cathedral in Russia.

Interior of Main Military Cathedral in Russia.

“The Patriarch said that these days the historical fate of the Russian people is being decided….”

In early April, Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) publicly expressed strong support for the Kremlin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.  During a service atthe main military temple in Kubinka, “the head of the Russian Orthodox Church called on the military to be faithful to the oath, to defend their fatherland at all costs,” according to the excerpt from the somewhat independent source Nezavisimaya Gazeta.  The Patriarch echoed the Kremlin’s narrative regarding which country is the chief enemy today, proclaiming that “most countries of the world are under the colossal influence of one force, which today, unfortunately, has become the opposing force of our people.”  He concluded his sermon by stressing that “we must be very strong.  When I say ‘we,’ I mean primarily the Armed Forces… All our people today should… understand that a special time has come, on which the historical fate of our people may depend.”

When the ROC consecrated the main military cathedral two years ago, many observers remarked that the church was instilling a religious component into the Kremlin’s patriotic ideology (see “Russian Religious Patriotism,” OE Watch, July 2020).  The Kremlin leadership, along with a pliant ROC, understand that Russian soldiers may be reluctant to defend a corrupt political system, but they might be willing to fight and die for their religion.

Source:

Andrei Melnikov, “Патриарх Кирилл возложил на армию ответственность за судьбу русского народа (Patriarch Kirill made the army responsible for the fate of the Russian people),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (somewhat independent Russian news source), 3 April 2022. https://www.ng.ru/faith/2022-04-03/2_8407_relig.html

Patriarch Kirill celebrated the Sunday liturgy and delivered a sermon in the main church of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The head of the Russian Orthodox Church called on the military to be faithful to the oath, to defend their fatherland at all costs. The Patriarch said that these days the historical fate of the Russian people is being decided….

…His sermon was sustained in the spirit of previous speeches on the situation in Ukraine. According to the patriarch, some powerful forces are playing off the fraternal peoples, and between Russia and the West there is, as he used to call it, a “metaphysical war.” Moreover, this time the mobilization call sounded even more clearly.

“Serving in the Armed Forces is a real feat,” said the head of the Russian Orthodox Church.  It requires readiness from everyone who has taken the oath to defend their homeland, not sparing their lives. Therefore, today our special prayer is for the Armed Forces, for our soldiers, with whom the hope for security, for freedom, for the true independence of our country is associated. “Most of the countries of the world are under the colossal influence of one force, which today, unfortunately, has become the opposing force of our people,” he explained. “Because there is great strength, and we must be very strong. When I say ‘we’, I mean the Armed Forces in the first place. But not only. All our people today should, as it were, wake up, start up, understand that a special time has come, on which the historical fate of our people may depend.”

Image Information:

Image: Interior of Main Military Cathedral in Russia.
Source: Sergey Sebelev via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Patriot_Military_Temple_Risen_Christ.jpg 
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl

Kremlin Pushing False Narrative About Ukraine to Russian School Children

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“I think the teachers are wrong. We are told that the people of Ukraine were brainwashed, but it seems to me that we were brainwashed here.”

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has cleansed the Russian information space has been cleansed of almost every source daring to contradict the government-approved narrative.  This unanimity of thinking has now spread to the Russian educational system.  The first excerpt from the official news agency, TASS, describes a recently mandated school lesson developed by Russia’s Ministry of Education “dedicated to the liberation mission in Ukraine [which] was watched by more than 5 million schoolchildren.”  Among other topics, the lesson “explained the danger NATO poses” to Russia, while stressing that “the Russian military does not strike at cities, but disables only the military infrastructure, so nothing threatens the civilian population.” 

The second excerpt comes from an article from Russian-run opposition news source Novaya Gazeta, which was forced to suspend operations in late March due to censorship pressure.  The article recounts what happened to a 6th grader, when during this history lesson, he “expressed his position on the ‘special operation’” in Ukraine.  The student objected to the teacher’s claims that “Ukraine started [the war], and it will end when Ukraine capitulates,” also “that Nazism is flourishing among Ukrainians.”  After this classroom incident, the teacher apparently reported the student’s disturbance to the authorities.  As the article points out, a few days later, police visited the apartment of the student’s family, turning off the electricity and leaving a summons for an interrogation.  The article concludes by quoting the 6th grade student, who said, “I think the teachers are wrong. We are told that the people of Ukraine were brainwashed, but it seems to me that we were brainwashed here.”

Source:

“Открытый урок ‘Защитники мира’ посмотрели более 5 млн школьников (More than 5 million schoolchildren watched the open lesson ‘Defenders of Peace’),” TASS (official Russian news agency), 3 March 2022. https://tass.ru/obschestvo/13956837

The All-Russian open lesson of the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation, dedicated to the liberation mission in Ukraine, was watched by more than 5 million schoolchildren, the press service of the Institute for the Study of Childhood, Family and Education of the Russian Academy of Education reports.

“More than 5 million schoolchildren watched the open lesson. During the lesson, the audience was told in detail the background to today’s events and explained what danger NATO poses to our country. The lesson also helped to figure out how to distinguish truth from lies in the flow of information,” the report says…. As noted in the text, a video was shown during the lesson, which told about the common history of Russia and Ukraine, traditions, common holidays and cultural heritage….

On February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a special military operation in Ukraine in response to the appeal of the leaders of the Donbass republics for help. He stressed that Moscow’s plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories, the goal is the demilitarization and denazification of the country. As stated in the Russian Defense Ministry, the Russian military does not strike at cities, but disable only the military infrastructure, so nothing threatens the civilian population.

Source: Irina Lukyanova, “Диссидент из 6-го ‘А’ (Dissident from the 6th A),” Novaya Gazeta (independent Russian opposition news source), 9 March 2022.

https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2022/03/07/dissident-iz-6-go-a

At a history lesson, a Moscow schoolboy expressed his position on the “special operation.” After that, the police came to his house and turned off the electricity.

Kirill… is 12 years old, he studies in the 6th grade of a Moscow school. His mother Natalia says that the boy has Ukrainian roots, he attended the Ukrainian Cultural Center. What is happening now between Russia and Ukraine hurts him.

On Friday, March 4, sixth graders had their usual history lesson. Cyril himself tells about what happened:

– The teacher said: “Actually, this is not discussed with the sixth graders, but if you want to understand what is happening, then ask questions.” And I started asking questions. I asked: “Why did Putin start a war?” To this the teacher replied that it was a “special operation.” She said: “I don’t know exactly where our troops are now, but if they had stopped halfway, the Ukrainian aggression would have continued.” A small part of the class was on my side, they also asked questions….

After that, I asked the question, why did someone start this at all and when will it all end? She said that Ukraine started it, and it will end when Ukraine capitulates. She also told us that Nazism is flourishing among Ukrainians…

This opposition of the sixth graders did not go unnoticed….

The next day, Sunday, Kirill was at home alone. Mom left for work. At this time, two policemen began to knock on the apartment, but Kirill did not open it. They knocked for about half an hour, then turned off the electricity in the apartment, left a summons “to be called for an interrogation” under the door and left. The summons contains an illegibly written date of the interrogation and a threat to “subject to arrest” in case of non-appearance….Kirill calmly explains his position: “I think the teachers are wrong. We are told that the people of Ukraine were brainwashed, but it seems to me that we were brainwashed here….”

Russian Public Approval of Military Likely To Decline over Use of Conscripts in Ukraine

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“…the official representative of the RF Ministry of Defense, Igor Konashenkov, admitted that conscripts participated in the special operation….”

Alongside Russia’s improvement in combat readiness over the past decade, we have seen a significant improvement in Russian public attitudes toward the military.  As reported earlier, (see: “Russian Patriotism and Values,” OE Watch, August 2020) polls suggest that Russians regard their military as one of the most trusted institutions, with the majority claiming that some form of military service should be mandatory for young Russian men.  However, as the accompanying excerpt from the moderate source Nezavisimaya Gazeta suggests, the ongoing conflict with Ukraine may change public attitudes toward the military.

The article reports that the official representative of Russia’s Ministry of Defense (MoD), Igor Konashenkov, admitted on 9 March that conscripts participated in the “special operation” in Ukraine.  As the article points out, this admission took on added poignancy since the day prior,  President Putin had congratulated women on International Women’s Day and asserted that only contract soldiers were participating in the operation.  As the article suggests, the Russian MoD only revealed this information after “the Ukrainian media distributed several videos showing young people who said they were captured Russian servicemen and not contract soldiers.”  The article stresses that Putin had earlier instructed the MoD “to categorically exclude the involvement of conscripts for any tasks on the territory of Ukraine.”  The article asserts that “the perpetrators of misinforming the president are planned to be identified and punished.”  If such deception continues, public attitudes toward the military will likely decline.

Source:

Vladimir Mukhin, “Минобороны России признало участие срочников в спецоперации (The Russian Defense Ministry acknowledged the participation of conscripts in the special operation),” Nezavisimaya Gazeta (moderate source), 9 March 2022. https://www.ng.ru/armies/2022-03-09/2_8386_president.html

…Meanwhile, the official representative of the RF Ministry of Defense, Igor Konashenkov, admitted that conscripts participated in the special operation. Earlier, the Ukrainian media distributed several videos showing young people who say they are captured Russian servicemen and not contract soldiers. Russian officials denied this information until March 9, and President Vladimir Putin, congratulating women on International Women’s Day [8 March], confidently said that only contract soldiers were participating in the operation. “I would like to emphasize that soldiers who are serving in military service do not and will not participate in hostilities. There will be no additional call-up of reservists from the reserve,” the head of the Russian Federation said.

The position has now been corrected. “Unfortunately, several facts of the presence of conscripts in parts of the Russian armed forces involved in a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine were discovered,” Konashenkov said. – Almost all such servicemen have already been withdrawn to the territory of Russia. At the same time, a sabotage group of the national battalion attacked one of the units performing the tasks of logistical support. A number of servicemen, including conscripts, were captured.” According to Konashenkov, measures are now being taken to prevent conscripts from being sent to combat areas and to release captured soldiers.Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov said that Putin was informed that his instruction “to categorically exclude the involvement of conscripts for any tasks on the territory of Ukraine” was carried out. Now the perpetrators of misinforming the president are planned to be identified and punished….

Kremlin Recasting Ukraine Invasion as “Third Patriotic War”

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“It is noteworthy that Russia is very well prepared for this war, including on the economic front…” 

Stiff Ukrainian resistance and strong support from the West, including economic sanctions, military supplies, and humanitarian aid, have hampered the Kremlin’s plans.  As the conflict drags on, the Kremlin’s strategic objectives in Ukraine could change, and along with them, the narrative surrounding the conflict.  The accompanying excerpt from an article in the popular pro-Kremlin source Vzglyad reflects the start of such a transformation.  It asserts that Russians now perceive the “special operation” in Ukraine as “a local episode of the war between Russia and the United States” or “as the third Patriotic war, but in a different format.”

As the second source from Youtube indicates the Vzglyad article is actually a synopsis of a video from a pro-Kremlin blogger that has gathered more than 3 million views since its release in early March.  The author, Yuri Podolyaka, claims that the so-called “special operation” in Ukraine has resulted in “an unprecedented patriotic upsurge” among Russians, and that “Russia is very well prepared for this war, including on the economic front.”  He goes on to assert that “the imposition of sanctions suggests that the West does not understand the Russian mentality and how Russian society lives.”  Russians are happy to see that the elite are being punished.  The author concludes by repeating Kremlin claims that Russia invaded Ukraine “to protect people from bullying and genocide by the Kiev regime,” and that “Russia prevented the appearance of nuclear weapons at the disposal of the Kiev regime.”  This global struggle, the author proclaims, will “result in a new world.  The old familiar world will no longer exist.” 

Source:

Rafael Fakhrutdinov, “Юрий Подоляка: Россия подготовилась к войне с США за передел мира (Yuri Podolyaka: Russia prepared for war with the United States for the redivision of the world),” Vzglyad (popular, pro-Kremlin source), 10 March 2022. https://vz.ru/news/2022/3/10/1147846.html

“Russians perceive the current Russian special operation in Ukraine as a local episode of the war between Russia and the United States, as the third Patriotic war, but in a different format,” said popular Ukrainian video blogger Yuriy Podolyaka, who is based in Sevastopol.  “Events in the information and psychological war are no less important than what is happening now on the fronts in Ukraine….  But what I really see in Russia is an unprecedented patriotic upsurge.” 

According to him, many Russians perceive the current special operation of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine as necessary – to liberate the Ukrainian state from the clique that unleashed the war in 2014. “Ukrainians preferred not to notice the massacre for eight years. And war tends to come to you if you don’t notice it. However, what is happening in Ukraine is only a local moment of the war between Russia and the United States for the redivision of the world. And the main events are yet to come. They will occur after the end of the operation in Ukraine,” the expert is sure.

According to him, the world is waiting for a powerful economic crisis. “It is noteworthy that Russia is very well prepared for this war, including on the economic front…. That is why Russians are not afraid of either the dollar exchange rate or other factors. Yes, the Russians will live financially worse, like the rest of the world. But this is not the effect that the West was counting on,” the analyst emphasized.

The blogger noted: The West expected that the Russians, accustomed to living well, with a deterioration in their financial situation, would begin to fight with the authorities. “The imposition of sanctions suggests that the West does not understand the Russian mentality and how Russian society lives…. 

“I want all Ukrainians and Russians to understand that the Ukrainian operation is just an episode in the struggle, the result of which will be a new world. The old familiar world will no longer exist…” Podolyaka predicted.

“…Recall that Vladimir Putin, in his address on the morning of February 24, directly outlined one of the main goals of the special operation – to protect people from bullying and genocide by the Kiev regime. In addition, Russia prevented the appearance of nuclear weapons at the disposal of the Kiev regime. The Supreme Commander directly indicated that Moscow would not allow such a development of events.”

Source: Yuri Podolyaka, “Война на Украине: а что в России – переворот, на который рассчитывают в Киеве, он будет или нет? (War in Ukraine: what about in Russia – a coup that Kyiv is counting on, will it happen or not?),” YouTube, 10 March 2022. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWpPW77tvHg

…The Third World War began in 2014, and since then, Russia has been preparing to fight—particularly on the economic front….

…The fight today in Ukraine is not about Ukraine, but rather it’s a fight with the US which will determine how the world is divided….

…Western experts made the fatal mistake of believing that economic sanctions, which will cause Russian people to live poorly, would somehow prompt a revolt against the authorities…. They simply don’t understand the Russian mentality…. They are happy to see the oligarchs punished, happy to see Western companies leave the country… Western economic pressure has forced the Kremlin leadership to make fundamental economic reforms which the people have been clamoring for…

…The only thing Russians worry about are large personnel losses in Ukraine….  

Latest Russian Population Figures Show Continued Declines

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“… I believe that their results are unreliable, not trustworthy. The current census is generally taken out of thin air…”

Recent data regarding Russian population trends are again a cause for concern.  The first excerpt from the independent, pro-business source RBC,analyzes recent population data from the Russian Statistic Agency Rosstat.  The article points out that the “natural” Russian population declined by 1.04 million people during 2021, resulting in a “permanent population” of 145.478 million people.  The article stresses that the decline continued “for the fourth year in a row” for a total decrease of 1.4 million people.  The article quotes a Russian medical official who claims that the “high level of population decline is associated with ‘super-mortality from COVID’—in the form of direct causes or concomitant diseases.”  This article concludes by citing expert officials who assert that “excess mortality… would have a long-term negative impact on the Russian economy.”

Russian population figures have often been a source of contention.  The Russian government conducted a nationwide census in late 2021, and while the official results will not be released until later in 2022, some Russian sources are already beginning to question the validity of the census numbers.  The second excerpt from the moderate and popular Svobodnaya Pressa claims that “the 2021 census is 100% fiction.”  After providing a brief history of how census data has been collected and manipulated in the past, the article quotes a Russian academic who says “the current census is generally taken out of thin air.”  The article includes anecdotal evidence that suggests many Russians did not participate in the recent census.  If there is truth to the quote that “demography is destiny,” then Russia faces an uncertain and potentially challenging future unless it can address its population decline.

Source:

Ivan Tkachev, “Естественная убыль населения в России за год превысила 1 млн человек (The natural population decline in Russia for the year exceeded 1 million people),” RBC (independent, pro-business source), 28 January 2022. https://www.rbc.ru/economics/28/01/2022/61f3bbaa9a794767f04fdaa7

The natural population decline in 2021 for the first time in the history of the modern Russian Federation reached 1.04 million people. The last time the indicator approached this level was in 2000. The main reason was the pandemic. As of January 1, 2022, the permanent population of Russia amounted to 145.478 million people, having decreased over the year by almost 693 thousand people (minus 0.5%)…. In general, the decline in the population of Russia is recorded for the fourth year in a row. During this period, the population of the country decreased by 1.4 million people, follows from the data of Rosstat….

A high level of population decline is associated with the “supermortality from COVID” – in the form of direct causes or concomitant diseases, Kalabikhina emphasizes…

… Both ACRA and the VEB Institute emphasized that excess mortality (demographic footprint) would have a long-term negative impact on the Russian economy.

Source: Ivan Rybin, “Русский миллиард: Перепись населения обернулась очередной фальшивкой (Russian billion: Population census turned into another fake),” Svobodnaya Pressa (moderate, popular source), 9 February 2022. https://svpressa.ru/society/article/324647/

… On February 9, 1897, 125 years ago, the first general population census was held in the Russian Empire. Prior to this, the state was limited to administrative and police accounting, that is, it deduced figures practically “from the lantern.” Today, in the 21st century, the authorities of the Russian Federation have returned to the vicious practice of autocracy, no one believes the data of 2021….

… However, what is happening today is even worse….  How many of us at the moment – in fact, it is not clear.  But obviously not 146 million people, the 2021 census is 100% fiction

“I also had complaints about previous censuses, I believe that their results are unreliable, not trustworthy.  The current census is generally taken out of thin air,” said Grigory Yudin, a sociologist and professor at the Moscow Higher School of Social and Economic Sciences.

“We don’t know how many people we have. Serious demographers say that there are actually 90 million of us.  I have two female students who were engaged in the population census in different parts of Moscow.  One counted 6.5 thousand people in her area, and the other – 8.5 thousand.  Where there are 6.5 thousand, they said to write down 10 thousand people, and where there are 8.5 thousand, they ordered to write down 12 thousand.  Thus, in these areas, a population of 30% was attributed.  It seems that this situation was also throughout Russia,” said the famous historian Andrei Fursov back in 2012.

“I conducted a roll call in my social circle, and it is large, and on my FB page, not a single person was revealed who would have seen a live census taker.  Those who answered that they participated in the census did it on their own through the State Services website, including me.  And this, of course, does not correlate in any way with the data announced by the organizers – more than 99% of the population took part in the census…” said political scientist Alexander Kynev.  The author of these lines also has a large social circle, and completely similar data.  No one came to anyone, to his friends, acquaintances, relatives, too….