Author Archives: Jason Warner

Russia Laying Groundwork Ahead of July 2023 Russia-Africa Summit 

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South African President Cyril Ramaphosa during a plenary session at the Russia-Africa Summit held in Sochi, Russia in October 2019.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa during a plenary session at the Russia-Africa Summit held in Sochi, Russia in October 2019.

“Increasingly isolated by the West because of its special operation in Ukraine, Russia is actively turning to Africa, which it seeks to seduce”

As Russia prepares to host the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg in the summer of 2023, commentators from across the African continent are offering insights as to how they perceive Russia trying to making inroads. In the first excerpted article from central African news aggregator L’Agence d’Information d’Afrique Centrale, writer Noël Ndong articulates the widely held perception that Russia seeks to expand its reach beyond its foothold of partners in Mali, the Central Africa Republic, and possibly Burkina Faso—most notably in other francophone African states. Ndong highlights former French stalwart ally Chad, as well as Morocco and Cameroon, noting Moscow’s rhetoric about aiding African states in their quests for energy independence.

The second excerpted article from Malian newspaper Le Journal de l’économie Malienne confirms the leader of Mali’s junta government, Assimi Goïta, recently received his invitation to the July 2023 meeting. The amity between two international pariahs should be unsurprising given that Goïta’s government relies on Russian Wagner mercenaries to stave off its spiraling jihadist insurgency, reportedly paying Wagner $10 million a month. A noted commentator on African geopolitical affairs, Gustavo de Carvalho, argues in the South Africa’s The Daily Maverick that in advance of the 2023 Russia-Africa Summit, the African Union needs to lead African efforts to have a unified front. While noting that in 2021, Russia was the largest arms supplier in Africa—supplying 44 percent of major arms to the continent—he also urges caution about what Moscow’s aggressive new posture means: “Given the continent’s relatively weak global position…Africa urgently needs a Russia strategy.”

Sources:

Noël Ndong, “Coopération: la Russie à l’assaut de l’Afrique (Cooperation: Russia on the assault in Africa),” L’Agence d’Information d’Afrique Centrale (Central Africa news aggregator), 18 October 2022. https://www.adiac-congo.com/content/cooperation-la-russie-lassaut-de-lafrique-142170

After Central African Republic, Mali, and Burkina Faso, Moscow is now on the hunt to conquer Morocco, Chad, and Cameroon…

With Morocco, Russia has approved a cooperation agreement in the field of the use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes…. The agreement stipulates that Moscow will assist Rabat in the creation and improvement of nuclear energy infrastructure, the design and construction of nuclear reactors, as well as water desalination plants and particle accelerators. The agreement also consists of the provision of services in Morocco in the field of the fuel cycle, spent and radioactive nuclear fuel and waste management.

Increasingly isolated by the West because of its special operation in Ukraine, Russia is actively turning to Africa, which it seeks to seduce. Ambassador Extraordinary Oleg Ozerov, Head of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum Secretariat at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said: “We see that African countries currently want to ensure an industrial transition of their economies. It will nevertheless be impossible to solve the problem of industrialization without having solved the problems of energy, without having granted access to electricity to the population and to the companies which must create industry and production.”

The second summit of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum is scheduled for the summer of 2023. It aims to give new impetus to Russian-African political, trade, economic, investment, scientific, technical and humanitarian cooperation.

Aboubacar Traoré, “Mali: Le colonel Assimi Goïta invité au Sommet Russie-Afrique (Mali: Colonel Assimi Goïta invited to the Russia-Africa Summit),” Le Journal de l’économie Malienne (online Malian news source), 14 November 2022.  https://www.lejecom.com/Mali-Le-colonel-Assimi-Goita-invite-au-Sommet-Russie-afrique_a6505.html

According to the diplomatic source, the Russian ambassador had come to officially deliver to Minister [of Foreign Affairs, Abdoulaye] Diop the letter by which the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, invites his Malian counterpart, Colonel Assimi Goïta, to participate in the Russia-Africa Summit scheduled for July 2023 in St. Petersburg.

­­Also, the Russian diplomat took this opportunity to inform the Malian authorities of the upcoming visit to Africa, including to Mali, of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Gustavo de Carvalho, “Africa needs to forge a unified approach to Russia before 2023 Russia-Africa Summit,” The Daily Maverick (centrist South African newspaper), 3 August 2022. https://saiia.org.za/research/africa-needs-to-forge-a-unified-approach-to-russia-before-2023-russia-africa-summit/

For five days in July 2022, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov traveled to four African nations to signal Russia’s push into the continent. The visit to Egypt, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda and Ethiopia symbolises the Russian offensive to gain and reinforce international support…

While the July 2022 engagements in Africa yielded few tangible outcomes, Lavrov reinforced the criticism of Western policies in Africa, with a complementing narrative of the independent stance Africa has taken….

Russia has been ramping up its military relationships with several African countries for at least a decade. Its approach is often influenced by close ties between Russia’s arms industry and its infamous private security contractor, the Wagner Group. According to Sipri, a Swedish think tank, Russia was the largest arms supplier to Africa in 2021, accounting for 44% of continental imports of major arms. In total, Russia has signed military agreements with more than 20 African countries…

Given the continent’s relatively week global position…Africa urgently needs a Russia strategy. To that end, the AU can — and should — engage with its members in a more structured manner and help them put together joint positions on critical issues related to Russia and other partners, like the US, China, Europe and others…

Image Information:

Image: South African President Cyril Ramaphosa during a plenary session at the Russia-Africa Summit held in Sochi, Russia in October 2019.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/governmentza/48951692933
Attribution: CC BY-ND 2.0

“The Islamic State’s “African Turn”: Why the African Continent Is Showing Outsized Importance for IS” (Jason Warner) (November 2022)

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(Click image to download brief.)

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • The Islamic State Central is increasingly publicizing the achievements of its affiliated African
    provinces, leading to what the FMSO’s Foreign Perspectives Brief authors call “The Islamic
    State’s African Turn.”
  • The authors detail six potential benefits that IS Central might gain with such an “African
    Turn,” as well as what downsides might also accompany such a turn.
  • Overall, the authors assess that the Islamic State’s African Turn is likely more tied to
    temporary successes of African provinces than it is an attempt to change the Middle Eastern
    character of the group.

Burkina Faso: A Bellwether on Russian and French Presence

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Memorial of the Martyrs in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

Memorial of the Martyrs in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

“Russia delivers the equipment to us and shows us how to use it and that’s it. What it is given in return, if it is indecent exploitation, there is no problem. France has exploited us for a long time without it bothering anyone.”

The September 2022 military takeover in Burkina Faso appears to be an indication of the continuing shifts in geopolitical affinities among Burkinabe away from France and towards Russia. In the accompanying article from the Burkina Faso-based daily L’Observateur Paalga, a journalist interviews Alouna Traoré, a survivor of the 1987 Burkina Faso coup d’état, a seminal event in Burkinabe history.[i] In the interview, Traoré articulates why he supports what is perceived to be Russian influence in the September 2022 military takeover which saw Interim President Paul-Henri Sandago Damiba ousted by Army Captain Ibrahim Traoré (no known relation) due to the former’s inability to control the spiraling jihadist insurgencies plaguing the country. In the aftermath, international media reported the presence of numerous Russian flags carried by civil society members supporting the change of power. While Russia’s role in Burkina Faso remains murky, next door in Mali, Russian Wagner mercenaries have been in the country assisting the ruling military junta there to try to stem the tide of its own fight against jihadists associated with Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Meanwhile, even despite years of Sahelian counterterrorism assistance via Operation Barkhane, a strong anti-French sentiment persists throughout the Sahel.[ii]

As the interview details, Traoré, a longtime supporter of Russia, views Russian support positively and pragmatically. Given the dire situation that the country faces, Traoré believes Russia to be the country’s only option, especially for weapons, as neither France nor the United States offers what he views to be acceptable assistance. Importantly, he also articulates that simply because he advocates for engaging with Russia, he views this not as Burkina Faso being co-opted, as many intellectuals in his country interpret, but rather, as a pragmatic and necessary move. As he notes: “We are drowning and clinging to everything. But just because we’re attached to [Russia] doesn’t mean you become our owner.”[iii]

Source:

“Lutte contre le terrorism: ‘Ceux qui ont des problèmes avec Wagner n’ont qu’à rester là’ (Alouna Traoré, le rescapé du 15 Octobre 87) (Fight against terrorism: ‘those with problems with Wagner can just stay there’(Alouna Traoré, survivor of 15 October 87),” L’Observateur Paalga (daily newspaper from Burkina Faso), 12 October 2022.https://rb.gy/o4uxn

You are known to be a defender of the Russian cause. Can you give us an explanation for this Russophilia?

When you say defender of the Russian cause, that’s a bit of an exaggeration. The people of Burkina Faso find themselves shipwrecked. And when you’re in that situation, you cling to anything to get yourself out of trouble. The main thing is not to die. However, we are on the way to extinction with regard to what is happening to us. I cannot slander those who attack us because they are sending us a message….

To come back to your question, I have the feeling that Burkinabe intellectuals are a bit dangerous. They act exactly like France and the United States. We perish, we die, we lose parts of the territory and we find that normal. France does not speak, it has the ammunition and the techniques, but it does nothing. France’s mentor, the United States, says nothing either…

We have to make allowances: Russia delivers the equipment to us and shows us how to use it and that’s it. What it is given in return, if it is indecent exploitation, there is no problem. France has exploited us for a long time without it bothering anyone. Russia gives us weapons that we did not have with France in a short time and that is a problem. It is an insult to our intelligence. The African intellectual makes me ashamed. People who don’t know what they want in a situation of extreme peril is dangerous.

Some believe that those who support Russia, in particular Wagner, are financed. Is this your case?

At my age, am I incapable of knowing what is good for me? Do I need someone to show me the path that suits me? How are they [the Russians] going to come and arm me and instrumentalize me? Russia manufactures weapons like the Kalashnikov which has shown its effectiveness around the world. We are asking for Kalashnikovs in quantity to arm our people…

We are drowning and clinging to everything. But just because we’re attached to [Russa] doesn’t mean you become our owner. One does not leave slavery to go to another slavery. We want the emancipation of the African man because Westerners have never considered us as humans. When are we going to understand it?

Do you think the Russians can make us happy?

I saw something with the Russians I want. Do we manufacture weapons in Burkina Faso? We go to countries that manufacture weapons. Russia is looking out for its interests, I agree. I agree that the Russians are after the money, but in return I have the weapons to defend myself… Burkina Faso is looking for weapons and Russia has them. And better quality. What Russia will take in return cannot finish our wealth. That’s what it’s all about.

Notes:

[i] In that episode, then Captain Blaise Compaoré orchestrated a coup d’état, killing Burkina Faso’s far-left President Thomas Sankara. Among other reasons, Compaoré had justified the act by noting that Sankara’s left-leaning rhetoric had created problems with former colonial France; resultantly, the coup is a symbol for varying perspectives on Burkina Faso’s alignment, or not, with France.

[ii] For more on the phenomenon of anti-French “fake news” in the Sahel, see: Matthew Kirwin, Lassane Ouedraogo, and Jason Warner, “Fake News in the Sahel: ‘Afrancaux News,’ French Counterterrorism, and the Logics of User-Generated Media.” African Studies Review. July 2022.

[iii] For more on African stances on the Russia-Ukraine war, see: Jason Warner, “African Stances on the Russia-Ukraine War Demonstrate Reliance on, Antipathy Toward West,” OE Watch Issue 9, 2022.

Image Information:

Image: Memorial of the Martyrs in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Memorial_of_the_Martyrs-Ouagadougou-4.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 2.0

Somali Government Bans Media Reporting on Al-Shabaab

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A copy of the Somali Government’s Press release on 8 October 2022, banning the dissemination of extremist ideology in formal or informal outlets.

A copy of the Somali Government’s Press release on 8 October 2022, banning the dissemination of extremist ideology in formal or informal outlets.

“I want to inform the Somali media and all Somali people in general that we’ll regard all al Shabaab-related propaganda coverage including their terrorist acts and their ideology as punishable crimes.”

As the accompanying excerpted article from the Somalia-focused East African news site Somali Guardian relays, Somalia’s Deputy Minister of Information, Abdirahman Yusuf Al Adala, recently decreed that Somali media were henceforth banned from “the dissemination of extremism ideology messages both from official media houses and on social media.” In practice, the announcement meant a de facto ban on reporting on the activities of Al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda’s East Africa branch and one of the deadliest terror groups in the world.[i] The announcement came as Somalia’s new president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who took office in May 2022, has promised to take a hardline stance against Al-Shabaab, which conducted a suicide bombing in late September in Mogadishu that killed seven people.[ii] For its part, the United States and the broader international community have been fighting Al-Shabaab for nearly a decade. In May 2022, the U.S. deployed 450 troops to Kenya to help battle the group. The move to restrict reporting on Al-Shabaab has largely been condemned. Most broadly, reactions seem to suggest that the decree’s bans remain ambiguous in practice: just where the line between simply reporting on the group’s activities and disseminating pro-al-Shabaab propaganda begins is unclear. While it was stated that reporting on Al-Shabaab was not allowed, separately, the same Deputy Minister relayed that the new law would not prohibit normal news coverage of Al-Shabaab’s activities. In its tone, however, the ban on reporting has sparked dissent by Somali and global media rights groups. As the second article, also from the Somali Guardian details, a local Somali journalist organization, Somali Journalists Syndicate, saw its Secretary General arrested approximately a week after the announcement of the decree following his criticism of the new law. The Ministry of Information denied that his arrest was connected to the criticism. Amnesty International has also condemned the new law. Given the prevalence of Al-Shabaab in the security and political fabric of Somalia, just how the new decree will play out remains to be seen.

Sources:

“Somalia bans media from reporting Al-Shabaab attacks,” Somali Guardian (East Africa-based news platform), 8 October 2022. https://somaliguardian.com/news/somalia-news/somalia-bans-media-from-reporting-al-shabaab-attacks/  

Somalia’s government on Saturday banned journalists from covering stories of Al-Shabaab attacks, weeks after the government launched an offensive against the militant group.

In a press conference, Somali deputy information minister Abdirahman Yusuf Al Adala said the government had banned local media from reporting Al-Shabaab attacks in accordance with national media regulations and those who breach the order will face justice.

He added that dozens of social media accounts linked with the group had been removed and a number of others would be next….

Somali media associations have not yet commented on the decision. The government had previously restricted reportage of conflict stories by local journalists, with dozens killed, others arrested and many more wounded in crackdown to stifle media.

“Arrest of media activist in Somalia sparks outcry,” Somali Guardian (East Africa-based news platform), 13 October 2022. https://somaliguardian.com/news/somalia-news/arrest-of-media-activist-in-somalia-sparks-outcry/

The arrest of media activist Abdalla Mumin in Somalia’s capital on Tuesday by security forces sparked an outcry from journalists and rights groups, days after authorities introduced a media gag order.

The activist was arrested in a raid by security forces on his office, just a day after he had criticized an order by the Ministry of Information that banned journalists from covering reports on the Al-Qaeda-linked militant group Al-Shabaab. He accused authorities of having an intention to muzzle media.

Amnesty International said it was concerned by the “arbitrary arrest and detention” of Abdalla. “Authorities in Somalia must immediately & unconditionally release him & must also respect, protect and promote freedom of expression,” It added.

Somali Ministry of Information, in a statement, distanced itself from Abdalla’s detention and alleged that he was arrested on challenges unrelated to his work by police. But journalists and media activists accused the ministry of playing a role in the detention.

Somali Journalists Syndicate (SJS), where Abdalla has been serving as secretary-general, said he was transferred on Tuesday to the Criminal Investigation Department (CID), days after being held incommunicado.

The media clampdown came months after the incumbent Somali president, who accused his predecessor of using unlawful force to silence journalists, promised to promote press freedom during his election campaign.

Notes:

[i] For a comprehensive list of the best resources available to study Al-Shabaab, see: Christopher Anzalone and Jason Warner, “Al-Shabaab,” Oxford Bibliographies, 23 June 2021. https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199743292/obo-9780199743292-0303.xml

[ii] For more on Al-Shabaab’s use of suicide bombing as a tactic in its arsenal of violence, see: Jason Warner and Ellen Chapin, Targeted Terror: The Suicide Bombers of Al-Shabaab, Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, February 2018. https://ctc.usma.edu/targeted-terror-suicide-bombers-al-shabaab/

Image Information:

Image: A copy of the Somali Government’s Press release on 8 October 2022, banning the dissemination of extremist ideology in formal or informal outlets.
Source: https://twitter.com/SONNALIVE/status/1578774905986093056/photo/1
Attribution: Public Domain

African Leaders and UN See Terrorism in the Sahel as Dire

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President of Ghana, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo.

President of Ghana, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo.

“All of us in the [West African] region are being forced to spend huge amounts of money on security.”

Terrorism in the Sahelian region of Africa—broadly, the area of desert south of the Sahara—is among the world’s most active locations of terrorist activity.  The UN recently released a sobering report detailing that in 2021, nearly half of the world’s victims of terrorism came from Sub-Saharan Africa, nearly 3,500 people. The Sahel accounted for a significant percentage of those.[i] Across coastal West Africa, countries historically spared from terrorist violence, like Ghana and Togo, are now preparing for an impending wave of terrorist threats from the Sahel.[ii]

Ghanaian President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo underscored the severity of the terrorist threat in the Sahel in his recent address to the UN General Assembly’s 77th Session in New York. As the accompanying transcript, taken from the Office of the Presidency of Ghana, recounts of his speech, he summarized: “[Terrorism in the Sahel] might look to many, today, as a local conflict which affects only the countries in that region. We, in Ghana, know differently, we have watched in horror as the unrest has moved from the Sahel, inexorably, to the West African coastal countries. All of Ghana’s neighbors have suffered terrorist attacks, and some have lost territorial space to the invading forces.” He then connected the prevalence of terrorist violence in the Sahel to the significant number of coups that have affected West African states over the past several years. At the core, he said, West African states have been forced to spend so much money on security that they can no longer adequately provide social services, thus leading to civil unrest.

Source:

“Address By President Akufo-Addo at the 77th Session Of The United Nations’ General Assembly,” The Presidency of the Republic of Ghana (Office of the President of Ghana), 21 September 2022. https://presidency.gov.gh/index.php/briefing-room/speeches/2285-address-by-president-akufo-addo-at-the-77th-session-of-the-united-nations-general-assembly

 …A case in point is the destabilising conflict in the Sahel. It might look to many, today, as a local conflict which affects only the countries in that region. We, in Ghana, know differently, we have watched in horror as the unrest has moved from the Sahel, inexorably, to the West African coastal countries. All of Ghana’s neighbours have suffered terrorist attacks, and some have lost territorial space to the invading forces.

Furthermore, the terrorist pressure has provided a pretext for the unhappy reappearance of military rule in three (3) of the fifteen (15) member ECOWAS Community, two (2) of whom have borne the brunt of the terrorist outrages in the Region – Mali and Burkina Faso. It is a development we are determined to reverse, so that the ECOWAS space remains a democratic one.

All of us in the Region are being forced to spend huge amounts of money on security. This is money we should be spending on educating and giving skills to our young people; on building much needed roads, bridges, hospitals and other such infrastructure, which we are spending to fight terrorists or to keep them out from destabilising our countries.This is a global problem, deserving the attention of the world community for a global solution.

Notes:

[i] For more on the UN report, see: “Nearly half of the world’s terror victims are African, with organized crime increasingly entrenched,” UN News, 6 October 2022. https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129312

[ii] For more on the preparations West African states are taking as they brace for a wave of terror from northern Sahelian neighbors, see: Jason Warner, “Coastal West African States Brace for Wave of Terrorism from the Sahel,” OE Watch, Issue 10, 2022.

Image Information:

Image: President of Ghana, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nana_Akufo_Addo,_Jan._2020.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 2.0

Mali Claims France Funded Terrorists; France Denies

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French soldiers talk to locals in southern Mali in 2016.

French soldiers talk to locals in southern Mali in 2016.

These flagrant violations of Mali’s airspace have served France to collect intelligence for the benefit of terrorist groups active in the Sahel, and to drop arms and ammunition to them.

Tensions between France and Mali continue to mount. As the articles below—one from Mali, one from France—delineate, the junta leaders of Mali recently sent a letter to the UN Security Council accusing France of illegally violating its airspace to aid terrorist groups in the country, which France’s years-long Barkhane counterterrorism mission has been in the country to fight.

The private Malian paper Le Journal du Mali reports that the ruling military junta in Mali, which came to power in May 2021, had sent the UN Security Council a letter claiming that it had proof of French violation of its airspace. It claimed that this occurred more than 50 times to collect intelligence and deliver arms to terrorists in the country.   Malian diplomats went on to request a special meeting of the UN Security Council but ultimately provided no proof. For its part, as detailed in the second article from the private, left-leaning French editorial site L’Opinion, the French embassy in Bamako denied the claim. As the writer of the article pondered: “Is this [letter to the UN] a way for Bamako to designate an external enemy to veil its internal shortcomings?”  Such accusations—unfounded as they appear to be—play out against the backdrop of France’s last nine years in the Sahel leading its Barkhane counterterrorism mission against groups associated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. While France officially ended its Barkhane mission in August 2022, the ruling Malian junta and large swathes of the Malian population have taken to blaming the French mission not only for failing to stem the tide of jihadist violence, but also for offering support to such groups. Until now, such accusations have percolated in bilateral circles, angering French diplomats and even President Macron. Their elevation to the UN Security Council places them at unprecedented new levels. 

Sources :

Source: “Sécurité : le Mali accuse la France d’aide aux terroristes (Security: Mali accuses France of aiding terrorists),” Le Journal du Mali (private Malian newspaper) 17 August 2022. https://www.journaldumali.com/2022/08/17/securite-mali-accuse-france-daide-aux-terroristes/. 

In a letter dated August 15 and addressed to the UN Security Council, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Mali accuses France of repetitive and frequent violations of Malian airspace by French forces. In the letter signed by Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdoulaye Diop, he asserted that the Malian government has several pieces of evidence that these flagrant violations of Malian airspace have been used by France to collect intelligence for the benefit of terrorist groups operating in the Sahel and to drop arms and ammunition to them. The government underscored that it is because of suspicion of destabilization maneuvers by France that Mali firmly opposed France’s request for air support for MINUSMA, so that “France does not use the UN mission as a pretext to carry out subversive operations aimed at further weakening Mali and the Sahel region.” In addition, Mali requests that France immediately cease its acts of aggression against Mali, in the event of persistence, Mali says it reserves the right to use self-defense.

Source: “Le Mali accuse la France d’armer les combattants islamistes (Mali accuses France of arming Islamist militants),” L’Opinion (private French news site), 18 August 2022. https://www.lopinion.fr/international/le-mali-accuse-la-france-darmer-les-combattants-islamistes. 

Is this a way for Bamako to designate an external enemy to veil its shortcomings internally? Mali said in a letter to the president of the United Nations Security Council dated Monday that France violated its airspace and delivered weapons to Islamist fighters in order to destabilize the country. Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop estimated that more than 50 violations of Malian airspace had been observed this year, saying most of them were due to the use by French forces of drones, military helicopters, or fighter planes.

The Malian government claims to be able to demonstrate where and when France would have delivered weapons to Islamist groups, it is added in the letter, without any proof being provided. Bamako requests the holding of an emergency meeting of the Security Council on the issue.“France has obviously never supported, directly or indirectly, these terrorist groups, which remain its designated enemies throughout the planet”, indicated the French embassy in Mali on Twitter, stressing that 53 French soldiers were dead in Mali in the last 9 years. These accusations come as France on Monday completed the withdrawal of French soldiers from Barkhane, a military operation aimed at fighting Islamist movements in the Sahel.

Image Information:

Image: French soldiers talk to locals in southern Mali in 2016. 
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Op%C3%A9ration_Barkhane.jpg
Attribution:  CC BY-SA 4.0

Coastal West African States Brace for Wave of Terrorism From the Sahel

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A Ghanaian soldier in 2013.

A Ghanaian soldier in 2013.

We need all of us to understand that the best way of making sure that our country continues to be at peace…will be undermined if we go to sleep on this terrorist matter. 

The wave of terrorism that has engulfed the Sahel over the past four years is now threatening to spread even further south than ever before, into the states of littoral West Africa. Both Ghana and Togo had previously been viewed to be insulated from the larger-scale jihadist violence caused by Salafi jihadist groups plaguing their neighbors to the north, namely al-Qaeda’s Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State’s Sahara province (ISGS). Now, both Ghana and Togo are preparing for what they perceive to be an impending challenge of violence in their northern borders as both groups seek greater influence even further south. Two articles from each country help to paint a picture of local perspectives.

As the first article published in pan-African news aggregator AllAfrica.com describes, Ghana is undertaking extensive efforts to fortify its northern regions, those in closest proximity to Burkina Faso, which is one of the continent’s states most prone to jihadist violence. Taken from a transcript released by the office of the President of Ghana, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, the article details that in response to the insecurity it views at its northern borders, Ghana has significantly increased recruitment into its armed services since 2020 and aims to recruit an additional 4,000 soldiers per year through 2024. Additionally, it opened at least 15 new forward operating bases in the north; has rolled out a new “See Something, Say Something” campaign; and has created new special operations, armor, signals, and mechanized artillery brigades. This is all in addition to ambitious new drives for weapons procurements for land, air, and sea. As President Akufo-Addo stated: “We need all of us to understand that the best way of making sure that our country continues to be at peace…will be undermined if we go to sleep on this terrorist matter.” The second article, from the state-owned Ghanaian newspaper Ghana Today, describes how Ghana recently asked a U.S. delegation for counterterrorism assistance to address challenges at its northern borders.  As the article notes, the request was underscored by Ghana’s claims that the jihadist insecurity in Burkina Faso (and Mali and Niger further north) is a result of the United States’ wars in the Middle East and South Asia, as well as its role in deposing Moammar Qaddafi in Libya in 2011. 

Ghana’s neighbor, Togo, is interpreting the impending threat of jihadist violence from the north similarly. As the third article from Togolese news source ALome.com notes, Togo’s diplomatic corps returned to Lomé recently to convene under a new theme related to strategies for regions dealing with terrorism. Emphasizing Togo’s new concern for the threats of jihadist violence coming from the north, the convention’s keynote speaker was Somalia’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, whom Togo had invited to share with it lessons learned from Somalia’s fight against al-Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, al-Shabaab. Finally, in the fourth article, also from ALome.com, two editorialists writing under pseudonyms underscored the broader relationship between so many West African countries’ recent victimization by al-Qaeda and Islamic State terror attacks and the question of national unity.  As they write, so widespread and destabilizing have threats of terrorism become in West Africa, touching more citizens than before, that states and their citizens could reasonably find a new sense of patriotism—a “rally around the flag” effect—in banding together to combat the threats of such groups. As they write, “In order to counter the common agreement of terrorist groups to create anarchy and carry out massacres…it is really a question of awakening the patriotic fiber where it is sleeping and restoring it where it is destroyed.”

Sources:

Source: Office of the Presidency of Ghana, “Ghana: ‘We’re Investing to Secure Our Borders Against Terrorist Threats’ – President Akufo-Addo,” AllAfrica.com (a centrist pan-African news aggregator), 22 August 2022. https://allafrica.com/stories/202208230416.html. 

The President of the Republic, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, has emphasized the government’s strong commitment to strengthening and fortifying the country’s northern borders and points of entry against the threats of terrorism and violent extremism.

According to the President, “We can’t be complacent and take that for granted. We need all of us to understand that the best way of making sure that our country continues to be at peace so that we can get on with resolving the challenges of development and elimination of poverty, which is our main concern, will be undermined if we go to sleep on this terrorist matter.”

The President noted that the “See Something, Say Something” campaign, being undertaken by National Security, has caught the imagination of people.

In terms of manpower expansion, the Armed Forces recruited and trained some three thousand (3,000) soldiers between 2017 and 2020. It has, since 2021, embarked on accelerated nationwide recruitment and training to churn out a minimum of four thousand (4,000) officers and soldiers annually until 2024, in order to beef up the strength of our Armed Forces to optimal levels.

The Akufo-Addo Government has created additional bases, specialized units, and brigades, with the acquisition of requisite equipment, to enhance operations, particularly along Ghana’s northern frontiers. This expansion has already seen the creation and establishment of the Army Special Operations Brigade, Armoured Brigade, Signal Brigade, and two (2) Mechanised Battalions, which are deployed in the Upper West and Upper East Regions.

The construction and equipping of fifteen (15) Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) across our northern frontiers for the Armed Forces for the Northern Border Project are also ongoing.

A number of combat vehicles, equipment, and weaponry, comprising about one hundred and sixty-three (163) Armoured Personnel Carriers and other combat vehicles, trucks and general vehicles, surveillance, and communication equipment, including optical and critical mass of night vision equipment, as well as weapons, ammunitions, and body armor, have been acquired to enhance intelligence acquisition, offer better protection, improve mobility and firepower for troops on internal security operations, including those deployed to the northern frontiers.

Source: Rex Mainoo Yeboah,“West Africa: Ghana Appeals to the U.S. to Help Fight Terrorism in West Africa,” Ghana Today (state-owned national newspaper), 29 August 2022. https://ghanatoday.gov.gh/news/ghana-appeals-to-us-to-help-fight-terrorism-in-west-africa/. 

President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo has appealed to the United States Government to help West African deal with the threat of terrorism and violent extremism.

Speaking with a U.S. bipartisan Congressional delegation that paid him a visit at the Jubilee House, President Akufo-Addo said the threats posed by the expanding Islamic network were detrimental to the socioeconomic development of the region.

He told the delegation that the growing threat of terrorism in the region was a result of the U.S. decade-long fight against terrorism in the Middle East and other parts of the world.

The President said the terrorism phenomenon further heightened in the region when the U.S. fought and drove hardened jihadist groups from the Middle East a decade ago, and the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime. Terrorism groups, which were originally confided in countries bordering the Sahel regions, took advantage of the collapse of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime and penetrated the West African region such as Mail to find refuge from the U.S. fight against them in the Middle East.

Source: Akoyi A. and K. T. (Pseudonyms), “Les priorités de la diplomatie togolaise pour les 12 mois à venir: Maintenir le cap ‘des initiatives de bons offices et de médiation’ (The priorities of Togolese diplomacy for the next 12 months: Maintain the course of ‘good offices and mediation initiatives’).” ALome.com (Togolese news site), 6 September 2022. http://news.alome.com/h/140788.html. 

Diplomats accredited to the Togolese Republic made their diplomatic return on Friday, September 2 to the capital Lomé for the year 2022-2023. For its second edition, this meeting between diplomats posted in Lomé took place around a topical theme linked to the challenges facing the continent: “Security challenges and strategies for stabilizing regions of the continent confronted with terrorism and to violent extremism.” 

The former Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Somalia, Abdissaïd Muse Ali, was rightly invited to share his country’s experiences in the fight against terrorism. With this in mind, he presented a presentation to enlighten his fellow diplomats on the Modus Operandi of pirates and extremists.

In recent years, radicalism is gaining more and more status. Following Mali, Burkina Faso, Benin, Togo, and other countries are expanding the list of countries targeted by armed groups. Hence the need to converge energies, harmonize stabilization strategies, to stick together between nations, forgetting political divisions.

Source: Kossi Kone, “Lutte contre le terrorisme, restaurer la fibre patriotique (Fight against terrorism, restore the patriotic fiber),” IciLome.com (Togolese news site),9 September 2022. https://icilome.com/2022/09/afrique-lutte-contre-le-terrorisme-restaurer-la-fibre-patriotique/. 

In Mali, as in Burkina Faso, Niger, Benin, and Togo, terrorist attacks affect populations and defense forces with loss of life and destruction of infrastructure. Earlier this week, dozens of civilians (traders and students) were killed by an artisanal mine laid by terrorists in northern Burkina Faso.

The governments of all these countries fight as best they can, militarily, against this barbarism. However, with the experiences of the Western powers in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is obvious that the military component is insufficient to carry out this fight effectively.

In order to counter the common agreement of terrorist groups to create anarchy and carry out massacres, it is essential that the social contract, which must be the figurehead of any nation, should be revisited and rebuilt. It is really a question of awakening the patriotic fiber where it is sleeping and restoring it where it is destroyed.To this end, this love of the fatherland cannot be decreed as some governments hope. It is the result of continuous construction, the foundations of which are laid by the social, economic, and security policies of the leaders.

Image Information:

Image: A Ghanaian soldier in 2013. 
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ghana_Armed_Forces_%E2%80%93_Military_Sergeant_Soldier.jpg 
Attribution: CC BY 2.0

African Stances on the Russia-Ukraine War Demonstrate Reliance on, Antipathy Toward West

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 “The West wants its African partners to share its condemnation of Russia. African states meanwhile cling to their monopoly on victimhood and historical resentment of Western domination in world affairs.”

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, official reactions from African nations have varied.  For instance, the March 2022 UN vote to condemn Russian aggression showed that 27 African states voted for the resolution, one state (Eritrea) voted against, 17 abstained, and nine more were absent for the vote.  As commentary from the respected Pan-African Institute for Security Studies lays out, the range of African reactions to the war is guided by logics not always appreciated from the outside.

First, and most important, the authors underscore that the continent’s 54 states are in no way a monolithic bloc and would not share a singular, unified viewpoint of the war given their varying goals, positions in international society, and international alliances.  Second, the authors note that African states are not affected by the war in the same ways.  While extreme food shortages were felt in certain states throughout the continent as a result of Russian blockades of grain and fertilizer, for many African countries, these issues “[don’t] compare with the Western aid that enables African countries to function.”  Third, the authors note that the war has been a litmus test bringing to light variations in African states’ interpretations of the international system.  Certain African states seek to maintain the Western “rules-based” order, and thus find more sympathy with Ukraine.  Conversely, other African states, with lingering antipathy to a global order in which they view themselves to be marginalized, are thus more sympathetic with revisionist, non-rule-abiding states like Russia. The authors sum up their assessments, saying: “Western surprise at most African countries’ limited emotion towards Russia’s invasion, and Africa’s neutral stance, point to a self-centeredness on both sides.  The West wants its African partners to share its condemnation of Russia.  African states meanwhile cling to their monopoly on victimhood and historical resentment of Western domination in world affairs.” 

Source:

Paul-Simon Handy and Félicité Djilo, “Unpacking Africa’s Divided Stance on the Ukraine War,” Institute for Security Studies (pan-African think tank), 12 August 2022. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/unpacking-africas-divided-stance-on-the-ukraine-war  

“African votes in the United Nations (UN) on the war revealed sharp divisions between countries… The high number of abstentions was widely interpreted as a sign of Russian influence or evidence of the growing anti-Westernism of African governments and citizens.  This view wrongly assumes that Africa is a political monolith.  It also suggests an underlying expectation by the West that states on the continent should align with them because of the West’s pre-eminence in development and humanitarian aid, and their shared historical past. 

Western surprise at most African countries’ limited emotion towards Russia’s invasion, and Africa’s neutral stance, point to a self-centredness on both sides.  The West wants its African partners to share its condemnation of Russia. African states meanwhile cling to their monopoly on victimhood and historical resentment of Western domination in world affairs. 

How do African states benefit from proclaiming non-alignment?  Although the conflict reveals the extent of the continent’s dependence on grain and fertiliser from Ukraine and Russia, it doesn’t compare with the Western aid that enables African countries to function.  The increasing price of hydrocarbons is affecting Africa’s most fragile states.  While European countries imposed sanctions against Russia despite the costs to their energy supplies, many African countries feel less able to adopt a principled and values-based foreign policy. 

The divide, however, runs deeper – extending to perceptions about the international order itself.  Western states defend a rules-based system in which they are pre-eminent.  African states have a more cynical view of a global order whose rules seem to be determined by the West.  This difference in outlook may explain Africa’s leniency towards Russia, even though the latter has violated a cardinal AU principle on territorial integrity. 

African states’ position is not without contradictions – which isn’t surprising given the many norms and values on a continent of 54 states.  They aspire to an international order based on rules, not force, while at the same time sympathizing with Russia and China, which challenge this order for different reasons.”  

Global Reactions Vary After Death of Al-Qaeda LeaderAl-Zawahiri

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The announcement on 1 August 2022 that the United States had killed the longtime leader of Al-Qaeda, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, as he stood on a balcony in Kabul, Afghanistan, was celebrated around the world.  While U.S.-based scholars and analysts have debated what the killing of Zawahiri means for Al-Qaeda, the international Salafi-jihadist movement, and the U.S. role in the world, so too have commentators from around the world offered their own, local perspectives on the implications of Zawahiri’s death.  These range from assessing the ongoing strength of Al-Qaeda to lamenting the empowerment of brutal indigenous leaders and governments.

Writers hailing from more powerful global states have shown broadly similar concerns as U.S. commentators.  In France, noted analyst Wassim Nasr stated in the private, left-leaning French outlet L’Opinion that from his perspective, even after Zawahiri’s death, “Al-Qaeda Central is now more powerful than during the Bin Laden era.”  Similarly, in Australia, commentary from the centrist Australian Institute of International Affairs argued that the death of Zawahiri in no way significantly weakened Al-Qaeda. The author likewise cautioned that as the world begins to give attention to right-wing extremism, the threats posed by Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State remain real and should not be ignored.  In contrast, in India, a writer in the Hindi-language daily Dainik Jagran argued that Zawahiri’s death was a “huge setback” for Al-Qaeda, especially in its attempts to grow its presence in the subcontinent.  However, he worried that disenchanted members of Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, might drift towards the Islamic State in Khorasan province.  

Other commentators writing from less powerful states around the world underscored the link between Zawahiri’s killing and their own local political and security situations.  For instance, in Nigeria, an article in the major newspaper Daily Trust quotes a former Nigerian Minister of Aviation as lamenting: “The Americans killed Osama Bin Laden, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi and now Ayman Al Zawahiri. Kudos!  In Nigeria we do not kill terrorists: we beg them, pay them, appease them, reward them, bow before them, and give them chieftaincy titles.”  In Rwanda’s private but state-supportive New Times, authors critiqued the current U.S. Secretary of State for hailing the death of Zawahiri while also recently criticizing Rwanda’s detention of U.S. citizen Paul Rusesabagina, who has been convicted by Rwandan courts as being a terrorist.  As they wrote: “If the US has the right to kill a foreign national using ‘transnational repression,’ then Rwanda… has the right to bring to justice to Rusesabagina, a Rwandan citizen.”  In sum, whether interpreted globally or more locally, the impact of Zawahiri’s death has elicited concerns regarding the continuation of Al-Qaeda and the empowerment of brutality by individual leaders and governments.

Sources:

Pascal Airault, “Al-Qaïda est plus forte qu’à l’epoque de Ben Laden (Al-Qaeda is stronger than in Bin Laden’s era),” L’Opinion (private French daily), 2 August 2022. https://www.lopinion.fr/international/al-qaida-est-plus-fort-qua-lepoque-de-ben-laden  

Al-Qaeda central is stronger than in the era of Bin Laden. It’s difficult to evaluate the number of its member even if certain experts talk of tens of thousands of them.  The organization is well-anchored in Afghanistan, with the ability to raise money, give directives, and assure international communications.  

Source: Michael Zekulin, “Al-Zawahiri’s Death and its Impact on the Future of Al-Qaeda,” Australian Institute of International Affairs (Australian think tank), 11 August 2022. https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/al-zawahiris-death-and-its-impact-on-the-future-of-al-qaeda/ 

News that a US drone strike killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri created a myriad of reactions… But what should we make of this event?  Is it as consequential as some believe?  One thing we know for certain is it would be a mistake to believe this is the death knell of al-Qaeda… 

Is this the end of al-Qaeda?   This is highly unlikely.  In addition to what the group has become, we must also remember that more than anything, these are belief communities which persist despite the loss of any one member, ever senior leadership.  The group survived Osama bin Laden’s death in 2011… Despite the current resurgence and focus on right-wing-inspired extremism and terrorism, the West should not neglect the threat posed by Islamist-inspired terrorism. 

Source: Aalok Sensharma, “How Ayman Al-Zawahiri’s Death with Will Impact Al-Qaeda in India Explained,” Jagran English (private Indian daily), 3 August 2022. https://english.jagran.com/india/how-ayman-al-zawahiri-s-death-will-impact-al-qaeda-in-india-explained-10046883  

Al-Zawahiri’s death is a huge setback for Qaeda, which has been trying to establish itself following the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). His death will also impact the group’s position in India, where it has been trying to spread its wings…. His killing will affect the morale of Qaeda supporters and cadres in India… An imminent concern for India is the fact that disenchanted Al-Qaeda cadres must shift their allegiance to the Islamic State and its regional affiliate Islamic State – Khorasan (ISKP).  

Source: Adedamola Quasiam, “Nigeria Rewards Terrorists Instead of Killing Them, Fani-Kayode Reacts to Death of Al-Qaeda Leader,” Daily Trust (private Nigerian daily), 2 August 2022. https://allafrica.com/stories/202208030105.html 

A former Minister of Aviation, Chief Femi Fani-Kayode, has reacted to the killing of Al-Qaeda leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, by a United States drone strike.  However, he alleged that terror kingpins in Nigeria are rewarded instead of being killed. 

“The Americans killed Osama Bin Ladin, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi & now Ayman Al Zawahiri. Kudos!  In Nigeria we do not kill terrorists: we beg them, pay them, appease them, reward them, bow before them, give them chieftaincy titles & let them break into prison to free their brothers,” he tweeted. 

Source: James Karuhanga, “Open Letter to Blinken: Scholars call for partnerships ‘free of condescending positions’,” New Times (private Rwandan English language daily), 9 August 2022. https://www.newtimes.co.rw/news/open-letter-blinken-scholars-call-partnership-free-condescending-positions  

When announcing his visit to Rwanda, the signatories remind Blinken that he referred to “the wrongful detention of the U.S. Lawful Permanent Resident Paul Rusesabagina.” 

Rusesabagina created the National Liberation Front (FLN), a criminal organization that served as an armed wing of his Rwandan Movement for Democratic Change (MRDC). On September 20, 2021, the High Court Chamber for International and Cross Border Crimes handed a 25-year sentence to Rusesabagina, for terrorism.  The FLN orchestrated murders in south-western Rwanda between 2018 and 2019.  

The authors of the open letter note that on August 2, Blinken celebrated the death of Al-Zawahiri with the following words: “We have delivered on our commitment to act against terrorist threats emanating from Afghanistan.  The world is safer following the death of al-Qa’ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.  The U.S. will continue to act against those who threaten our country, our people, or our allies.”  

If the US has the right to kill a foreign national using “transnational repression,” then Rwanda certainly has the right to bring to justice Rusesabagina, a Rwandan citizen, at the root of an armed group responsible for the deaths of Rwandan civilians in Rwanda, they pointed out.