Author Archives: Jacob Zenn

Russia’s Increasingly Visible Military Presence in Mali

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Map showing Russia and Mali.

Map showing Russia and Mali.

“‘You speak of mercenaries, it’s your business. For us, they are Russian instructors,’ said the Malian official.”  

Although Mali has longstanding military ties with France, Russia is filling the void left in the region following France’s withdrawal of forces from Mali.  According to a recent French-language article in tvmonde.com, Russian personnel have replaced French troops at a base in Timbuktu.  The article further suggests there may be up to 400 Russians in Mali operating as military instructors.

The article contends there is also growing confirmation of Russia’s Wagner Group in Mali, implying that the Russians are, in fact, mercenaries rather than regular armed forces.  According to the article, a Malian official in Timbuktu noted mercenaries were what outsiders might call the Russian troops, but from the Malian perspective all that matters is that the Russians are instructing Malian soldiers.  Meanwhile, according to a 12 January report in Russian-language Interfax military news.com, Russia denies any government role in Wagner Group activities in Mali and considers the company as having the right to independently pursue business interests in Mali.

The tvmonde.com article also notes that France and UN forces in Mali remain suspicious of the Russian presence and have reportedly conducted flights over the Timbuktu base hosting the Russians.  The article states that this angered Russia and caused Mali to request that France discontinue flights over the base.

Source:

“Mali: les Russes présentés comme des instructeurs de plus en plus nombreux (Mali: Russians presented more and more as instructors),” information.tv5monde.com 7 January 2021. https://information.tv5monde.com/afrique/mali-les-russes-presentes-comme-des-instructeurs-de-plus-en-plus-nombreux-439418#:~:text=Un%20des%20responsables%20maliens%20a,notre%20camp%20militaire%20de%20Sofara.&text=Mais%20un%20influent%20%C3%A9lu%20d,%C3%AAtre%20tu%C3%A9%20des%20mercenaires%20russes%22

Many Russian instructors have been deployed in Mali in recent weeks, especially on the Timbuktu base (north) recently left by French forces, said Malian military officials. One of these officials responded in the affirmative to the possibility that these instructors now number about 400 across the country.

The apparent strengthening of cooperation with Russia coincides with the reconfiguration of the French forces and the planned reduction of the Barkhane anti-jihadist force, which will drop from around 5,000 soldiers in the Sahel in the summer of 2021 to around 3,000 in the summer of 2022. Barkhane recently handed over three bases in the north to the Malians, the most recent in Timbuktu in mid-December. Russian instructors recently arrived in Timbuktu to accompany the delivery of Russian helicopters, a Malian official said. Another Malian official, also on condition of anonymity, confirmed the presence of “Russian military instructors in several parts of Mali. You speak of mercenaries, it’s your business. For us, they are Russian instructors,” said the chief official.

Source: “Москве неизвестно, сколько граждан РФ, сотрудников ЧВК “Вагнер”, находятся в Мали” (“Moscow does not know how many citizens of the Russian Federation and employees of Wagner PMC are in Mali),” Interfax militarynews.ru (Russian language news service), 12 January 2022. https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=564129&lang=RU

As a high-ranking diplomat stressed, “the officials of the Russian Federation have nothing to do with the activities of our private companies. This is capitalism. Everyone earns as they can,” he added. The interlocutor provided a negative answer to the question of whether, in principle, a register of Russian citizens in Mali is maintained.

Image Information:

Image: Map showing Russia and Mali
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mali_Russia_Locator.svg
Attribution: [CC x 2.0]

Southeast Asia Sees Decrease in Terrorism

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DSA 2016 - Close Quarters Battle.

DSA 2016 – Close Quarters Battle.

“The government-imposed lockdowns have forced people to spend more time online, raising the likelihood of vulnerable individuals being exposed to radical ideologies in the cyber domain.” 

On 10 January, Malaysian business news outlet malaymail.com covered a report from a Singaporean think tank, Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis, at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.  According to the article, the report indicated that terrorism was decreasing in Southeast Asia due to factors associated with COVID-19.

The article noted lockdowns forced militants, like all citizens in Southeast Asia, to reduce their activities, but it also noted that the lockdowns may have produced longer-term security risks.  During the lockdowns youths spent more unsupervised time online and could have been exposed to radical ideas as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) continued its online recruitment efforts.

In Peninsular Malaysia itself, the article noted that there were no terrorist arrests at all in 2021, which is consistent with the trend line of reduced terrorism in the region.  In Sabah of Malaysian Borneo there were 15 terrorist arrests in 2021, roughly one-fifth the number of arrests there in 2019.  As reported in Singapore’s Straits Times, the terrorist arrests in Sabah relate to Philippines-based Abu Sayyaf’s maritime activities, including piracy and kidnapping, that are carried out between the borders of the Philippines and Malaysia and also involve Indonesian militants.  The malaymail.com article attributed the reduction in terrorism in the Philippines to the army’s capturing of militant bases in southern Mindanao.

As for Indonesia, the malaymail.com article suggested Jamaah Ansharut Daulah’s stagnation since 2020 and Mujahidin Indonesia Timor’s decline was caused by increased cost of movement, a result COVID-19 travel restrictions.  The only country that saw similar numbers of violence in 2020 as 2021, according to the article, was Thailand, where an insurgency has festered for more than a decade in the country’s majority Muslim south.  In general, however, the article points to the combination of COVID-19 travel restrictions and successful counter-terrorism operations to arrest militants as key factors behind the downturn in militancy in Southeast Asia.

Source:

“Terrorist threats in South-east Asia decline in 2021, according to Singapore report,” malaymail.com (Malaysian business news outlet), 10 January 2021. https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2022/01/10/terrorist-threats-in-south-east-asia-decline-in-2021-according-to-singapore/2034142

Terrorist threats in South-east Asian countries declined in 2021, a Singapore think-tank said in its annual threat assessment. There were fewer terror-related incidents in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines as governments battled Covid-19. In Thailand in 2021, meanwhile, violent incidents connected to an insurgency in the far south were similar to those in the previous year, the researchers found.

The report specifically linked the Covid-19 pandemic to the drop in terror activities in Malaysia last year. Authorities made no terror-related arrests in Peninsular Malaysia last year, but made about 15 in Sabah between May and September. The government-imposed lockdowns have forced people to spend more time online, raising the likelihood of vulnerable individuals being exposed to radical ideologies in the cyber domain. Around the region, groups such as IS have increased their recruitment and radicalisation efforts through social media during the pandemic.

Elsewhere, the armed forces of the Philippines drew praise for retaking terror bases in the southern region of Mindanao.

Source: “Malaysia’s Sabah is South-east Asian terrorists’ preferred transit point: Experts,” straitstimes.com (Singapore based news outlet), 5 September 2021. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/malaysias-sabah-is-south-east-asian-terrorists-preferred-transit-point-experts

As security threats posed by extremists rise in South-east Asia, Malaysia’s Sabah state has emerged as a preferred route for Indonesian militants to enter the southern Philippines to carry out their terrorist activities, according to a regional intelligence source.

Sabah appeared to be a transit point for Indonesians who want to join terror groups or learn to make IEDs (improvised explosive devices) in the Philippines, according to the source.

Source: “Annual Threat Assessment,” rsis.edu.sg (Singapore based think tank), 1 January 2021. https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/CTTA-January-2022.pdf

Whilst this reflects a continuous declining trend of attacks and plots compared to the years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021 terrorist landscape was particularly marked by aggressive counterterrorism (CT) operations that hauled in more than three hundred terrorist suspects – the largest figure since 2018 – including key militant group leaders.

Image Information:

Image: DSA 2016 – Close Quarters Battle.
Source: Rizuan
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:DSA_2016_-_Close_Quarters_Battle.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

Sahel Drug Trade Mixes with Militancy

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2014 02 19 Handover of Uniform to Somali Custodial Corps 07.

2014 02 19 Handover of Uniform to Somali Custodial Corps 07.

“All in all, drug trafficking is intensifying and constitutes a funding opportunity for crime and a threat to the security of states.” 

On 11 January, the Burkina Faso-based Norbert Zongo Cell for Investigative Journalism in West Africa (CENOZO) wrote the attached, excerpted French-language article on criminal drug trafficking in the Sahel.  CENOZO was founded by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) to report on corruption, organized crime, bad governance, and violations of human rights. According to the article, a number of factors are contributing to drug financing of terrorism in the region, including the lack of state authority, weak judicial systems, the collapse of the traditional pastoral economy, and corruption.

In particular, the article points to northern Mali as a transit point for cocaine in West Africa, which disrupts the stability of state institutions and benefits from the complicity of political or military figures.  The article also notes that drugs often pass through the three coastal West African countries of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo and suggests that drug lords in Burkina Faso remain unknown and have evaded security forces crackdowns.  Although the article acknowledges UNODC has launched several programs to counter drug trafficking, including surveillance at airports, the indifference and corruption of government officials has limited the ability of such programs to curtail the drug trade in the Sahel.

One of the drugs that the article highlights with concern is tramadol, often used by laborers. However, the northern Nigeria-focused news outlet Daily Trust noted in a 5 June article that the Nigerian National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) has intercepted tramadol shipments from the coastal city of Lagos. These were destined for Boko Haram in the country’s northeast.  The drug is used to keep fighters awake and vigilant during long battles or when hiding in the bush to evade security forces.

Besides high-level officials and militant group involvement in the drug trade, the article argues the abuse of drugs by impoverished youth can also result in their being recruited by armed groups.  Consistent with previous reporting from as early as January 2014 by the Geneva-based Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, the excerpted article by globalinitiative.net states that the origin of some of the drugs in the Sahel is Latin America, including Colombia and Brazil, as well Bombay, India.  Therefore, the problem of drug trafficking and its inter-relation with terrorism and militancy in the Sahel remains complex, with distinct local and global factors contributing to its perpetuation.

Source:

“Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger: Sur les routes criminelles de la drogue au Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger: On the criminal drug routes in the Sahel),” cenozo.org (UN sponsored media consortium based in Burkino Faso), 11 January 2022.  https://cenozo.org/burkina-mali-niger-sur-les-routes-criminelles-de-la-drogue-au-sahel/

Several types of drugs transit through Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, with Europe as their destination. Facilitated by porous borders and insufficient means of control, this traffic fuels crime in the Sahel. Between January and October 2021, Burkina Faso customs seized at least 78.11 tons of drugs.

Tramadol is trafficked for non-medical use and is widely consumed by people performing physical work: gold miners, agricultural producers, workers on major construction sites. Its trafficking constitutes a great threat in West, Central and North Africa, underlines the UNODC.

The drugs usually come from Bombay in Asia and Colombia and Brazil in Latin America. UNODC describes the Sahelian region as a trade and migration route where “the lack of state authority, weak judicial systems, the collapse of the traditional pastoral economy, corruption and the presence of fire have created an ideal conducive environment for illicit trafficking, organized crime, terrorism, corruption and money laundering.” The UNODC cites Mali in its 2013 report as one of the main transit countries for cocaine in West Africa, combining several related activities that dangerously disrupt the stability of institutions.


Source: “Illicit Trafficking and Instability in Mali: Past, Present and Future,” globalinitiative.net (Geneva based civil society organization), January 2014.  https://globalinitiative.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Illicit-Trafficking-and-Instability-in-Mali-Past-present-and-future.pdf

Cocaine first entered these networks in 2002, after South American wholesalers began using West African ports as an intermediate step in reaching consumers in Europe. The consequent rise of organized criminal syndicates in coastal states such as Nigeria and Ghana gained the attention of international bodies and policymakers. Although some amount of cocaine arrives by boat or plane directly to Mauritania and Morocco, the main ports of entry for South American wholesalers to the region are still believed to be Guinea and Guinea-Bissau.


Source: “NDLEA Seizes 34,950 Tramadol, Diazepam Capsules Enroute To Boko Haram,” dailytrust.com (news outlet covering social and political affairs of northern Nigeria), 5 June 2021. https://dailytrust.com/ndlea-seizes-34950-tramadol-diazepam-capsules-in-lagos

Spokesman of the agency, Femi Babafemi said in Abuja that a 25-year-old, Mohammed Isah, was recruited to move the drugs from Lagos to Borno was arrested. The suspect claims he accepted the offer because of the monetary benefit due to pressure on his finances as his wife and three children displaced by Boko Haram activities.

Image Information:

Image: 2014 02 19 Handover of Uniform to Somali Custodial Corps 07.
Source: AMISOM Public Information https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2014_02_19_Handover_of_Uniform_to_Somali_Custodial_Corps_07_(12632984573).jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

Indonesia Casts Wide Net in Terrorism Arrests

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Densus 88 element raid.

Densus 88 element raid.

“Jamaah Islamiyah is estimated to have 6,000 to 7,000 members and sympathizers spread throughout Indonesia in its various branches and is thought to have infiltrated various government and civc institutions.” 

Indonesia’s special counterterrorism detachment, Densus 88, conducted a series of arrests in late November targeting members of Jamaah Islamiyah (JI).  According to the excerpted article from Indonesian site tribunnews.com, which focused on domestic affairs, the scope of the arrests was unprecedented.  The article notes the arrests extended not only to JI itself, but also to the Indonesian Ulema [Islamic Scholars] Council (MUI).

According to the article, JI has up to 7,000 members, some of whom have infiltrated government agencies and civic organizations.  The justification for arresting MUI members, therefore, is not that MUI itself supports JI, but that JI has infiltrated MUI.  The solution to JI’s infiltration of MUI, according to Indonesian officials cited, is for MUI to conduct more robust background checks of members it recruits. Although the recent arrests by Densus 88 of JI members has affected MUI, the latter’s scholars have shown approval for Densus 88.  The article reports that MUI announced that it supports the government’s efforts to root out terrorism and maintain the security and territorial integrity of Indonesia.  By working with the MUI, Indonesian authorities have been able to arrest JI and MUI members suspected of involvement in terrorism without alienating the MUI more broadly.  Indonesian-language kompas.com also reported on 13 December that Densus 88 finally arrested one of the JI-affiliated suspects in the March 2021 bombing of a church in Makassar.

Source:

“Forum Santri Dukung Densus 88 Polri Tangkap Terduga Pelaku Teroris (Santri Forum Supports Detachment 88 Police Arrest Suspected Terrorist), tribunnews.com (Indonesian public affairs focused media outlet), 25 November 2021. https://www.tribunnews.com/nasional/2021/11/25/forum-santri-dukung-densus-88-polri-tangkap-terduga-pelaku-teroris

Densus 88 Anti-terror Police have again arrested suspected terrorists who are affiliated with Jamaah Islamiyah, one of whom is an active member of the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI). Jamaah Islamiyah is estimated to have 6,000 to 7,000 members and sympathizers spread throughout Indonesia in its various branches and is thought to have infiltrated various government and civic institutions.

The head of FOKSI emphasized that Jamaah Islamiyah should not only be viewed from the angle of terror attacks because its movement has entered into a socio-religious institutions in the community. Regarding the arrest of MUI individuals who are suspected of being linked to terrorism, he argues that terrorist network cells have infiltrated various circles and groups. He hoped that MUI would not be permissive to its administrators who support ideas of radicalism and terrorism. FOKSI conveyed that it supports the government’s efforts in eradicating terrorism in order to maintain the integrity of the country because the Indonesian people must receive safety and freedom from radicalism and terrorism.

Source: Densus 88 Tangkap Buron Teroris, Diduga Terkait Bom Gereja Katedral Makassar (Detachment 88 Arrests Fugitive Terrorist, Allegedly Related to Makassar Cathedral Church Bombing), kompas.com (Indonesian language news outlet), 13 December 2021. https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2021/12/13/22194981/densus-88-tangkap-buron-teroris-diduga-terkait-bom-gereja-katedral-makassar

The Special Detachment (Densus) 88 Anti-terror Police arrested a suspected terrorist in South Sulawesi. The Head of Banops Densus 88 Anti-terror Police confirmed the information. He said the arrest was made last week. According to him, the perpetrator was included on the terrorist wanted list (DPO) and suspected of being linked to the bombing at the Makassar Cathedral Church in South Sulawesi on March 28, 2021.

Image Information:

Image: Densus 88 element raid.
Source: multimedianews.polri.go.id
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Densus_88_element_raid.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

East African Special Forces Commit to Cross-Border Counterterrorism Operations

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Rwandan Defense Force combat lifesaver training.

Rwandan Defense Force combat lifesaver training.

“In order to allow the state of siege to quickly restore peace in Ituri and North Kivu, the deputies supported during the debate the pooling of the Ugandan and DRC armed forces to hunt down the ADF and other negative forces.”

On 1 December, the Rwanda-based website Taarifa Rwanda reported on Uganda and Congo’s joint special forces operations against Allied Defense Forces (ADF) militants in Congo.  ADF is loyal to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).  The article noted that Uganda and Congo believe they are preempting the siege of towns in Ituri and North Kivu, Congo by the militants.  It was also noted that the Congolese National Assembly unanimously voted to support joint special forces operations and that there would be a long and protracted hunt by the two countries’ special forces in the jungle to root out the militants. 

In August, Rwanda itself deployed soldiers to Mozambique to combat ISIS-loyal militants in that country.  This was the first-ever foreign military excursion for Rwanda to coastal East Africa.  More than one month later, according to the excerpted 25 September article in Kenya-based The East African, Rwandan president Paul Kagame pledged to continue counterterrorism operations in Mozambique.  The article noted that Kagame traveled to the epicenter of the insurgency in Cabo Delgado province to address the joint forces of the Mozambique Armed Defence Force and Rwanda Defence Force, stating that Rwandan troops would not leave Mozambique until the security situation was stable.

According to the The East African, Rwanda’s contingent in Mozambique includes 1,000 soldiers, who Mozambican president Filipe Nyusi regards as heroes.  Both Nyusi and Kagame justified the Rwandan troop deployment as necessary to fight the ADF and other ISIS-loyal militants, who Kagame described as a regional threat.  Kagame, for example, noted that the militants included Kenyans, Tanzanians, Congolese, Somalis, and Rwandans.  The two articles demonstrate how East African states are increasingly viewing counterterrorism through a regional lens and how cross-border counterterrorism operations, such as Uganda in Congo or Rwanda in Mozambique, will likely become more common in the region.

Source:

“Uganda-DRC Special Forces Search Bombed ADF Areas,”  taarifa.rw (Rwandan based news website), 1 December 2021.  https://taarifa.rw/uganda-drc-special-forces-search-bombed-adf-areas/

Members of the Congolese national assembly unanimously voted to support joint Ugandan and DRC operations to be more effective in tracking down the ADF, because, according to them, “before the state of siege is equal to during the state of siege.” In order to quickly restore peace in Ituri and North Kivu, the deputies supported during the debate the pooling of the Ugandan and DRC armed forces to hunt down the ADF and other negative forces.

Source: “Kagame says troops will stay put in Cabo Delgado to ensure stability,  theeastafrican.co.ke (Kenya based publication covering regional developments), 25 September 2021.  https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/kagame-says-troops-will-stay-put-in-cabo-delgado-3562164

President Paul Kagame has praised the Rwandan troops deployed to fight insurgents in Cabo Delgado province of Mozambique for their good work fighting insurgents. While addressing the joint force of Mozambican Armed Defence and Rwanda Defence Force on Friday at Cabo Delgado, he also said the soldiers will stay put to stabilize and facilitate the return of displaced civilians to their homes. He was accompanied by his Mozambican counterpart Filipe Nyusi.

The Rwandan contingent is 1,000-soldier strong, made up of the army and the police who recently launched offensives against the insurgents in Cabo Delgado province. Botswana later sent a contingent of 296 and South Africa deployed 1,500 soldiers. President Kagame has defended the deployment, and said his country is footing the deployment bill for now, and the mission will stay on to train the Mozambican army, pointing out that the nature of the threat was regional given that the insurgents not only included Mozambicans, but also Tanzanians, Ugandans, Kenyans, Somalis, Yemenis, Congolese and Rwandan fighters.

Image Information:

Image: Rwandan Defense Force combat lifesaver training.
Source: US Army Africa from Vicenza, Italy
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rwandan_Defense_Force_combat_lifesaver_training,_March_2011_-_Flickr_-_US_Army_Africa.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

Ethiopia Acquiring Emirati and Chinese Drones

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Wing Loong Baiweiflight.

Wing Loong Baiweiflight.

“The Ethiopian government has increased a large-scale recruitment drive in the army in the hopes that a string of purchases of an arsenal of drones and other weapons will be productive.”

On 25 November, the largely neutral Arab-language news service khabar25.com featured an article focused on the role of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in supplying unmanned aerial systems (UAS) to Ethiopia.  According to the article, Ethiopia’s interest in UAS from the UAE accelerated after the war began in November 2020 and the Ethiopian army faced greater resistance from the Tigrayan rebels than expected.  The article suggests that supplying the Ethiopian army has become more difficult for the UAE since the Tigrayan rebels captured two bases in Aksum and Samara in the northern Tigray region, leaving the military base in Harar, south of Addis Ababa, as another option to supply the Ethiopian army.

However, the article emphasizes that several other countries are providing UAS to Ethiopia in addition to the UAE.  For example, the article reports that China’s Wing Loong UAS was seen at the Harar military base.  Additionally, the Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation on 8 October featured an Amharic-language interview of Ethiopian General Yilma Merdassa, who was seated near a model of the Wing Loong.  General Merdassa acknowledged that Ethiopia had received the UAS from China. The article also reports that Turkish drones are among the UAE’s purchases,UAS are a key part of the Ethiopian government’s last ditch efforts to ward off the Tigrayan rebels before they rebels approach the country’s capital, Addis Ababa.

Source:

“الجسر الجوي الإماراتي يقدم دعما عسكريا للحكومة الإثيوبية (The UAE air bridge provides military support to the Ethiopian government),” khabar25.com (Arabic-language news outlet focusing on current military and technology affairs from a neutral perspective), 25 November 2021. https://www.khabar25.com

Satellite images show that the UAE is providing significant support to the Ethiopian army in the fight against the Tigrayan forces.The UAE opened an air bridge to provide military support to the Ethiopian government in its war against forces in the northern Tigray region.Between September and November, there were more than 90 flights between the UAE and Ethiopia, many of which deliberately concealed where they took off and where they landed.

Flight maps and satellite images show aircraft recently arriving from the Sweihan base in Abu Dhabi, UAE, to the Harar Meda base, south of the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. The footage shows a Chinese-made Wing Loong drone, the first such aircraft ever to be documented at Ethiopian military bases.

The images also reveal that bases in Samara and Aksum were run over following clashes with Tigray forces, who said this week that they are about 200 kilometers from Addis Ababa. In recent weeks, the Ethiopian government has increased a large-scale recruitment drive in the army in the hopes that a string of purchases of an arsenal of drones and other weapons will be productive. The Ethiopian government signed a military cooperation agreement with Turkey in August, amid reports that it wanted to deploy drones to the war.

Source:  “የመሻገሪያ ዘመን -ሜ/ጀነራል ይልማ መርዳሳ የኢፌዲሪ አየር ኃይል ዋና አዛዥ(Maj. Gen. Yilma Merdasa, Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force ),” Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation (an Ethiopian government-owned public service broadcaster), 8 September 2021. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOc1kBbEkvo

Image Information:

Image: Wing Loong Baiweiflight.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wing_Loong.jpg
Attribution: CC x 3.0