Monthly Archives: August 2023

Taliban Responds to UN Reports Claiming Taliban Rule Aids Terrorist Expansion

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The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) decries a UN report “biased and far from reality”

“A range of terrorist groups have greater freedom of manoeuvre under the Taliban de facto authorities. They are making good use of this, and the threat of terrorism is rising in both Afghanistan and the region.”

The United Nations Sanctions Monitoring Team for the Taliban released a report in June 2023 critically assessing the status of the Taliban’s rule of Afghanistan since the group took over the country in August 2021. For its part, the Taliban released an equally scathing rebuke of the UN’s report. The Monitoring Team report, which draws from reporting by UN member states, underscores the link between the Taliban’s rule and the greater latitude of movement that certain terror groups have in the region. Most notably, it articulates that “the link between the Taliban and both Al-Qaida and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) remains strong and symbiotic,” and that there “are indications that Al-Qaida is rebuilding operational capability [and] that the TTP is launching attacks into Pakistan with support from the Taliban.” The report does note that not all terrorist groups enjoy equal latitude: the Taliban has attacked members of the Islamic State in Khorasan (IS-K), though not to a degree that the operations of the latter have declined in a meaningful way. To the contrary, the report suggests that IS-K’s numbers have grown substantially, now estimated to be between 4,000 and 6,000 fighters, a number that members of the U.S. intelligence community have claimed is significantly higher than their estimates.[i] IS-K has taken advantage of the lack of Taliban control to consolidate its power in more remote locations. As the UN report notes, “Attacks against high-profile Taliban figures raised [IS-K] morale, prevented defections, and boosted recruitment, including from within the Taliban’s ranks.”

Representatives of the Taliban government responded, calling the UN’s report “biased and far from reality” and “full of prejudice.” The Taliban press release notes that contrary to what the UN report claims, the Taliban government does not allow its territory to be used to threaten neighboring countries, the region, or the world writ large. From the perspective of the Taliban, “the publication of such reports…does not help Afghanistan…rather, it increases worry among the people… [and casts] doubts on [sic] the impartiality and independence of the United Nations.” The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has widened the window of growth for Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State, and other terrorist groups. The same threat actors that have consumed it for nearly two decades—the Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State—still remain pernicious challenges even as the United States has shifted to focus most acutely on near-peer competition with China and Russia. [ii]

Sources:

“Letter dated 23 May 2023 from the Chair of the Security Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 1988 (2011) addressed to the President of the Security Council,” 1 June 2023, United Nations Security Council Taliban Sanctions Monitoring Team. https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/1988/monitoring-team/reports

The Taliban, in power as the de facto authorities in Afghanistan under Hibatullah Akhundzada, have reverted to the exclusionary, Pashtun-centred, autocratic policies of the Taliban administration of the late 1990s. 

The link between the Taliban and both Al-Qaida and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) remains strong and symbiotic. A range of terrorist groups have greater freedom of manoeuvre under the Taliban de facto authorities. They are making good use of this, and the threat of terrorism is rising in both Afghanistan and the region. While they have sought to reduce the profile of these groups and have conducted operations against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – Khorasan Province (ISIL-K), in general, the Taliban have not delivered on the counter-terrorism provisions under the Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan between the United States of America and the Taliban. 

There are indications that Al-Qaida is rebuilding operational capability, that TTP is launching attacks into Pakistan with support from the Taliban, that groups of foreign terrorist fighters are projecting threat across Afghanistan’s borders and that the operations of ISIL-K are becoming more sophisticated and lethal (if not more numerous). 

It is too early to judge the impact of the decree by the Taliban in April 2022 banning poppy cultivation. At this point, prices have increased, as has production of the more profitable methamphetamine. Key Taliban individuals remain closely involved in production and trafficking.  The Taliban de facto authorities have had some success in revenue generation and budgetary management, with the caveat that data on expenditures is scant and opaque.  The effectiveness of the sanctions regime appears mixed. There is little evidence that it substantially impacts Hibatullah’s decision-making, but lifting sanctions measures is a constant demand by the Taliban engaging Member States.  Widespread availability and proliferation of weapons and materiel already in Afghanistan undermines the arms embargo.  A number of travel ban exemptions have been sought since the end of the group exemption for the Taliban in August 2022, but information regarding unauthorized travel and late requests is concerning.

Notes:

[i] Jeff Seldin, “UN Report Warns Al-Qaida, Islamic State Growing in Afghanistan,” Voice of America, 15 June 2023. https://www-voanews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.voanews.com/amp/un-report-warns-al-qaida-islamic-state-growing-in-afghanistan/7138133.html

[ii] For more on the state of the global terrorist landscape, see: Jason Warner, “Global Terrorism Declined Slightly in 2022, With the Sahel as the New Epicenter,” OE Watch, 5-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/global-terrorism-declined-slightly-in-2022-with-the-sahel-as-the-new-epicenter/; Jason Warner, “African Leaders, UN See Terrorism in the Sahel as Dire,” OE Watch, 11-2022. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/429303; Jason Warner, “Global Reactions Vary After Death of Al-Qaeda Leader Al-Zawahiri,” OE Watch, 9-2022. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/425695

Image Information:

Image: The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) decries a UN report “biased and far from reality”
Source: https://www.alemarahenglish.af/the-statement-of-ieas-spokesperson-on-the-recent-report-of-the-united-nations-security-council/
Attribution: Public Domain

Iran’s Persistent and Growing Influence in Latin America

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Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi delivers a campaign speech.

“Our common position with these three countries is opposition to the hegemonic and unilateral system,” Raisi said.

Iran’s influence in the Western Hemisphere is often underestimated. Recent events have underscored that Iran is trying to grow its regional influence through a patient campaign that seeks to expand relations in authoritarian states in Latin America: namely, in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. Additionally, observers saw some unexpected activity when Iranian warships made a port call in Brazil in March 2023,[i] and Iran engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity to solidify its Western Hemisphere presence in June 2023. Iran first sent its Foreign Minister and now President, Ebrahim Raisi, whose entourage was comprised of a “large political, economic, and scientific delegation,” aimed at signing strategic agreements with Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba according to Infobae, an Argentine outlet covering South America. Raisi spoke of a desire for a more multipolar world and denounced sanctions regimes at all three stops. Iran signed 19 strategic agreements to cooperate in various domains, most notably the oil industry during the trip to Venezuela reported in another article in Infobae. This cooperation is important because of how both countries use their cooperative agreements to flout international sanctions on their governments. Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega supported the right of Iran to pursue more nuclear weapons, according to Infobae. Iran’s engagement in the Western Hemisphere is often overshadowed by the efforts of China and Russia. However, Iran has close relationships with the region’s three dictatorships and seeks to build beyond those relationships by diversifying its regional partners.[ii] Authoritarian regimes under pressure from the international community continue to view Iran’s friendship as a critical lifeline for survival.

Sources:

“El presidente de Irán llegó a Venezuela, primera parada de su gira por Latinoamérica con visitas a regímenes aliados (The president of Iran arrived in Venezuela, the first stop on his tour of Latin America with visits to allied regimes),” Infobae (Argentine outlet with excellent regional coverage), 12 June 2023. https://www.infobae.com/america/mundo/2023/06/12/el-presidente-de-iran-partio-hacia-venezuela-primera-parada-de-su-gira-por-latinoamerica-con-visitas-a-regimenes-aliados/

“Our common position with these three countries is opposition to the hegemonic and unilateral system,” Raisi said…The Iranian president defined relations with Caracas, Havana and Managua as ‘strategic’ and affirmed that this visit will mean ‘a turning point’ in the deepening of their ties…“We have important cooperation in the fields of defense, energy, oil, gas, refineries and the petrochemical sector,” Maduro said…On the trip to Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, the Nicaraguan president, defended Iran’s right to acquire nuclear weapons.

“El régimen de Irán pretende consolidar su influencia en la región: su presidente visitará Venezuela, Nicaragua y Cuba (The Iranian regime intends to consolidate its influence in the region: its president will visit Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba),” Infobae (an Argentine outlet with excellent regional coverage), 7 June 2023. https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2023/06/07/el-regimen-de-iran-pretende-consolidar-su-influencia-en-la-region-su-presidente-visitara-venezuela-nicaragua-y-cuba/

The trip will strengthen relations with the countries that Tehran considers ‘friends’ in economic, political and scientific matters…This is Raisi’s first trip to Latin America since he took office in August 2021…Last year Tehran and Havana agreed to strengthen their cooperation in technology and food security, during the visit to the Persian country of the Cuban deputy prime minister, Ricardo Cabrisas.

Notes;

[i] For more information and context on this incident, please see: David Biller, “Iranian Warships in Rio de Janeiro Stirring Concern Abroad,” Associated Press, 2 March  2023, https://apnews.com/article/iran-ships-brazil-us-navy-rio-de-janeiro-2b6d98aca758c040e5e75293a05d9db9.

[ii] Iran’s attempts to broaden its engagement in Latin America have not been uniformly successful. See, for instance, the debacle that ensued when a plane full of suspected IRGC members landed and was seized in Argentina. See: Ryan Berg, “Venezuela’s Mystery Plane Shows Iran’s Strategic Penetration of Latin America,” OE Watch, 07-2022, https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/420434.

Image Information:

Image: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi delivers a campaign speech.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ebrahim_Raisi_delivers_speech_at_a_rally.jpg
Attribution: Wikimedia, CC-BY 4.0

Iran’s Simorgh Transport Plane Makes Maiden Flight

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Iranian Defense Minister Mohammed Reza-Ashtiani meets with Abdul Karim Mahmoud Ibrahim

“The Simorgh demonstrates … the industrial maturity of the Ministry of Defense.”

The Iranian Aviation Industries Organization unveiled the prototype for its Simourgh [GRLCUT(1]  transport plane in May 2022. The plane is named after the Simorgh, a mythical and benevolent bird mentioned frequently in Persian mythology and featured in the Shahnameh Book of Kings, Iran’s national epic. It is a name that the Iranian military has applied previously to missiles or satellites.[i] The excerpted article from Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with theIslamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), suggests that the plane’s development is advancing as the Simorgh undertook a 20-minute test flight reaching an altitude of 8,000 feet at Shahin Shahr, about 15 miles north of Isfahan.

The Simorgh appears similar to the Ukrainian Antonov AN-140T, a decade-old platform designed to use rough or unprepared airstrips. The Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industries Corporation, based at Shahin Shahr, began importing Antonov AN-140 [RG2] knock-down kits beginning 15 years ago, aiming to assemble approximately a dozen per year. The current Simorgh makes minor adjustments to the body, tail, and wings of the AN-140T, includes a cargo ramp, and can reportedly carry 6 tons of cargo.

Minister of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Mohammad Reza Ashtiani’s claim that the Simorgh is indigenous is either an outright exaggeration or reflects successful reverse engineering and local production of AN-140 parts. A functioning local production line would enable Iran to sidestep problems with acquiring spare parts and could give Iran the opportunity to become a chief supplier of AN-140T parts to other customers of the Ukrainian Antonov plant in Kharkiv—another source of hard currency for Iran. The production of the Simorgh transport plane may augment Iran’s regional ambitions as its nearly 1,300-mile range will enable Iran to shuttle cargo and troops to regional allies Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. The Simorgh’s air ambulance capability also likely plugs a gap exposed by IRGC losses in the Syrian civil war.[ii]

Sources:

“Havapeyma-ye Trabari Simorgh ba Mavafeqit Peruz Kard” (The Simorgh Transport Plane Flew Successfully ),” Fars News Agency (news agency closely affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), 30 May 2023. https://www.farsnews.ir/news/14020309000919

The Simorgh transport plane, made by experts from the Aviation Industries Organization of the Ministry of Defense, successfully passed its flight test. This aircraft is a new design and is the initial aircraft of its generation. It is fully suited to the needs of the national and military apparatus. It also takes into account the weather conditions of the country, international standards and regulations. It was designed, produced and built by the efforts of our young experts working for the [Iran Aviation Industries Organization, owned by the] Ministry of Defense and knowledge-based companies. It was first unveiled in May 2022 in the presence of the Minister of Defense and the Vice President for Science and Technology.

Among the features of the Simorgh transport aircraft are its light weight, cargo space, flight radius, sustainability to climatic conditions, the ability of land and take-off on short runways, agility and speed, allow it not only to be a transport craft but also an air ambulance. The design and construction of this aircraft do several things. It saves significant foreign exchange [due to its local production], creates employment, demonstrates both the realization of the resistance economy and the technological and industrial maturity of the Ministry of Defense, and finally shows the integration of national capacities to produce a strategic and technological product. It accelerates the country’s air force and ushers the armed forces into the club of heavy and ultra-advanced aircraft manufacturers.

Notes:

[i] For cursory discussion of the Simorgh rocket, see: Michael Rubin, “Zuljanah: Iran’s New Solid-Fuel Rocket” OE Watch, March 2021. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-past-issues/368233/download. For discussion of the Simorgh satellite, see: Michael Rubin, “Iran’s Simorgh Satellite Ready for Launch,” OE Watch, August 2018. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-past-issues/241432/download

[ii] For example, see: Michael Rubin, “IRGC Conducting Training by Fire in Syria” OE Watch, April 2017. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-past-issues/195917/download

Image Information:

Image: Iranian Defense Minister Mohammed Reza-Ashtiani meets with Abdul Karim Mahmoud Ibrahim, Chief of General Staff of the Syrian Army, 10 May 2023
Source: https://media.farsnews.ir/Uploaded/Files/Images/1402/03/09/14020309001000_Test_PhotoN.jpg
Attribution: Fars News Agency

Iran Claims New Flight Simulator Will Enhance National Power

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Commander Mohammad Shirazi, chief of the military office for the leader of the Islamic Revolution

“If their personnel are trained on the flight simulator… Iran’s national power will increase greatly.”

The lifting of some international sanctions, the non-enforcement of others, and its blossoming relations with Russia have enabled Iran to upgrade its aging fleet[i] of fixed-wing combat aircraft.[ii]

One aspect of Iran’s effort to upgrade its air capabilities is in training. In the excerpted article from Mashregh News, an ostensibly private news agency close to Iran’s security and intelligence apparatus, Air Force chief Hamid Vahidi argues that a new domestically produced flight simulator will have an outsized impact on Iran’s capabilities and readiness, since earlier imported systems often did not always match Iran’s fleet or conditions. Vahidi also indicates that Iran could be a hub for combat pilot training across West Asia. This is an exaggeration, as few regional states, with the exception of Syria, fly the same aircraft that the Iranian Air Force does, and there is no apparent desire by most West Asian countries to train in Iran when they have access to training facilities and simulators in the United States and Europe. The introduction of the new system also demonstrates the interplay between Iranian universities and the military. In the West, most universities are clearly distinct from the military, except for service academies. In contrast, in Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps either runs entire universities or dominates certain academic departments whose research could enhance Iran’s military capabilities.[iii] It is reasonable to expect growing Iranian Air Force activity both in the Persian Gulf and along Iran’s eastern borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan as Iran augments its training and upgrades its fleet of aircraft.

Sources:

“Shabiyehsaz-e Moraghabat-e Pervaz Cheh Kar Baradi Darad? (What is the Purpose of the New Flight Simulator?),” Mashregh News (an ostensibly private news agency close to Iran’s security and intelligence apparatus), 13 June 2023. https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/1498976

…The flight control system made by the Army Air Force was unveiled this morning [13 June 2023] in the presence of General Mohammad Shirazi, chief of the military office for the Leader of the Islamic Revolution; Brigadier General Hamid Vahedi, chief of the Army’s Air Force; Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Marvinam, director of the Shahid Sattari University of Aeronautical Engineering, and a group of Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force specialists. This system replicated all the conditions of an air traffic control tower, such as weather, different times, and the real scenes of an airport. The Flight Simulator is used for training both undergraduate and graduate students as well as courses for flight attendant operations officers. The system is actually a set of five simulators that includes the flight control tower, airport approach radar and aircraft control radar.

Vahedi said, “This system was designed and built by our brave scientists and elite youth at Shahid Sattari Air University,” and added, “The indigenous flight simulator was built for the first time in the country, and we can use this system to train the students of the tower in all fields…

He continued, “The flight simulator is one of the systems we needed to train Air Force students, and was designed and built by using the experience of both the veterans and senior leaders of Shahid Sattati University….” Vahedi further stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran is the hub of flight simulators in the West Asia, and said the new simulators have upgrades those we already had to take into account the planes for which we did not have simulation….[Marvinam] said that if their personnel are trained on the flight simulator and perform all the necessary exercises, not only Shahid Sattari students but also the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force will augment their abilities and, more broadly, Iran’s national power will increase greatly.

Notes:

[i] For example, see: Michael Rubin, “Iran Wants Sukhoi-35 Fighters from Russia” OE Watch, October 2018. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-past-issues/427403/download

[ii] With regard to developing Russo-Iranian ties, see: Michael Rubin, “Iran-Russia Relations” OE Watch, July 2016. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-past-issues/195435

[iii] For example, see: Michael Rubin, “The University Jihad Stands Together with the Defense Jihad” OE Watch, November 2020. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-past-issues/356999/download

Image Information:

Image: Commander Mohammad Shirazi, chief of the military office for the leader of the Islamic Revolution, inspects the new flight monitoring simulator system, 13 June 2023.
Source: https://media.farsnews.ir/Uploaded/Files/Images/1402/03/23/14020323000580638222618232475677_14000_PhotoT.jpg
Attribution: Fars News Agency

Russia Possibly Courting Eritrea for Red Sea Naval Base

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Massawa harbour

“The [Russian and Eritrean] leaders plan to discuss the prospects for the development of Russian-Eritrean relations in various fields, as well as topics of regional and international concern.”

On 31 May, the Russian government-affiliated TASS news agency, published the excerpted article about Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s visit to Moscow to meet with Russian President Putin. According to the article, the leaders discussed Russia’s war in Ukraine and other issues, such as academic exchanges and trade. Russia is interested in Eritrea because of its location adjacent to the Red Sea and its demonstrations of loyalty to the Kremlin, according to a second article from the Ukrainian publication focus.ua. This article notes that Eritrea was the only African country to vote against a UN General Assembly decision for Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine in March 2022.[i] Russia had previously signed an agreement with Sudan to base four Russian ships and 300 soldiers in Port Sudan, seeking a foothold on the Red Sea, according to the focus.ua article. The article notes that Sudan has not ratified the agreement, and the country’s ongoing conflict and Western pressure may cause the country’s authorities to reverse the deal. Eritrea, which borders Sudan, would provide Russia with an alternate base location near the Red Sea should the Sudan agreement not materialize. The Red Sea has strategic importance for Russia. Not only does 10 percent of global maritime traffic pass through it, but Russia’s competitors and other major powers, such as the United States and China, have naval bases along the Red Sea in Djibouti, which borders Eritrea to the south.[ii] However, Russia’s naval presence near one of the world’s major trade arteries represents expansionist intentions from the Ukrainian perspective represented in the article.

“Путин начал переговоры с президентом Эритреи (Putin Begins Discussions with the President of Eritrea),” tass.ru (Russian government-affiliated publication), 31 May 2023. https://tass.ru/politika/17892945

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the head of Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki, who is in Russia on an official visit. The leaders plan to discuss the prospects for the development of Russian-Eritrean relations in various fields, as well as topics of regional and international concern. The current talks were the first meeting between the leaders of the two countries. 

According to data for 2022, the trade turnover between Russia and Eritrea amounted to $13.5 million, while exports from Russia to Eritrea accounted for $12.7 million. Since 2015, Eritreans have been provided with scholarships to study at Russian universities.

“Завоевание Африки. Зачем Кремлю военная база в Красном море (Why a Russian Base on the Red Sea?),” focus.ua (Russian and Ukrainian language Ukrainian magazine focusing on global economics), 16 February 2023. https://focus.ua/world/550262-zavoevanie-afriki-zachem-kremlyu-voennaya-baza-v-krasnom-more

Russia does not abandon attempts to expand control over African states.

Wherever there are “Wagners”, companies associated with Yevgeny Prigozhin gain access to the natural resources of these countries and a certain political influence on them (usually they are authoritarian regimes). There is information about the presence of this group of mercenaries in Mali, the Central African Republic, Mozambique, Angola, Zimbabwe, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Madagascar, Libya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and possibly Eritrea. 

Most likely, the military authorities of Sudan intend to receive weapons from the Russian Federation for their army, and also consider Russia’s military presence as one of the factors guaranteeing the preservation of the political processes in the country after the presidential and parliamentary elections. For Russia, hosting a base carries a wide range of political benefits. First of all, it is a presence in a region that is strategically important for the entire planet. The Red Sea has played an important role in world trade since the beginning of navigation. Now 10% of all maritime trade passes through it.We are mentioning that at a hypothetical military base (most likely it will be in Port Sudan) no more than four ships and 300 soldiers can be located at the same time. Time will tell how Sudan behaves in such circumstances. However, the growing influence of Russia in Africa, especially in the area of important trade routes, should be a wake-up call for the democratic part of the world.

Notes:

[i] In March 2023, five countries, including Belarus, North Korea, Syria, Eritrea, and Russia itself, voted against the UN General Assembly resolution that “demand[ed] that Russia “immediately, completely, and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders.” Sudan, in contrast, was one of 35 countries that abstained from the vote. See UNGA, “General Assembly resolution demands end to Russian offensive in Ukraine,” 2 March 2022. https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1113152

[ii] The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) opened a “logistical support facility” in Djibouti in 2017 with the potential to support China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and protect Chinese interests and nationals in Africa and the Middle East more broadly. Chinese ambitions in Djibouti were also reflected in China’s desire to compete with Russia, which itself had strengthened its base in Tartus, Syria during the Syrian civil war. Jean-Pierre Cabestan (2020), “China’s Military Base in Djibouti: A Microcosm of China’s Growing Competition with the United States and New Bipolarity,” Journal of Contemporary China, 29:125, 731-747.

Image Information:

Image: Massawa harbour
Source: Reinhard Dietrich, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Massawa_harbour.JPG
Attribution: CC x 2.0

Russia and China Expanding Coast Guard Cooperation in Arctic

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“Cooperation on Coast Guard tasks is both a concrete action and often seen as more harmless than military cooperation. The Coast Guard’s work is about protecting sovereign rights at sea, like fishing resources and access to oil and gas. Letting China in when it comes to fisheries inspections would be a big step in practical cooperation that has a security element to it.”

A new agreement with Russia’s Coast Guard will give China greater access to the Arctic, according to the following excerpted article in Norway-based The Barents Observer.This is something China has sought as a “near Arctic” nation. China has long claimed a special status in Arctic relations since its proclamation that the “Arctic belongs to the world and China has the largest portion of the earth’s population.” Cooperation between the Russian and Chinese Coast Guards can be an important step in China’s ability to gain more access to Arctic waters. The agreement on joint coastal operations could also give China a stronger voice in dictating Arctic policy. An analyst quoted in the article sees this as a significant policy shift for Russia, concluding that “Russia is generally skeptical about letting China get too close in the Arctic, but the Ukraine war might have changed those calculations.” The article suggests the presence of Chinese Coast Guard vessels patrolling Arctic waters, should it come to that, will make Norway’s cooperation with Russia’s Coast Guard even more difficult.

Sources:

Thomas Nilsen, “Russia’s Coast Guard cooperation with China is a big step, Arctic security expert says”, The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 28 April 2023. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2023/04/russias-arctic-coast-guard-cooperation-china-big-step-expert

On 24 April, a groundbreaking memorandum on extensive cooperation in Artic waters was signed with FSB Coast Guard. The Chinese Coast Guard was then invited to observe the long-planned “Arctic Patrol 2023” maritime security exercise. On 27 April, Governor Andrei Chibis met Chinese diplomats and discussed a roadmap for increased business, shipbuilding and Northern Sea Route developments. Amid the Ukraine war and halt in cooperation with the other seven Arctic nations, Russia turns east for new partners. Opening the door for China is a significant geopolitical change.

“Cooperation on Coast Guard tasks is both a concrete action and often seen as more harmless than military cooperation,” explained Andreas Østhagen, an expert on Arctic security with the Firdtjof Nansen Institute. “The Coast Guard’s work is about protecting sovereign rights at sea, like fishing resources and access to oil and gas. Letting China in when it comes to fisheries inspections would be a big step in practical cooperation that has a security element to it,” Osthagen stated. Government officials in Beijing have for years said China is a “near-Arctic state,” but so far, its presence up North has been limited to participating in conferences, annual research voyages, some few investments in Russia’s natural resource developments, and a few Asia-Europe shipments along the Northern Sea Route.

“China’s Polar Silk Road project seems to be more wait-and-see,” write researchers Frédéric Lasserre and Hervé Baudu in a report  published in April about the consequences of the war in Ukraine in the Arctic. The report, however, underlines that China is readily credited with great Arctic ambitions, but for now, mainly focused on securing hydrocarbon supplies from Siberia.  China has its own projects under construction. Barges for two additional floating nuclear power plants for the north coast of Siberia and a nuclear-powered icebreaker are currently under construction at a yard in China.

The Russia-China memorandum signed in Murmansk opens the opportunity for joint efforts to combat terrorism, illegal migration, fighting smuggling of drugs and weapons, as well as stopping illegal fishing. The deal was signed by top leaders with FSB Border Guards and the Chinese Coast Guard.

“This testifies that Russia actively wants to invite China into the kind of tasks we have thought Russia would safeguard,” Andreas Østhagen states, finding this a significant shift in policy. “We have thought that Russia is generally skeptical about letting China get too close in the Arctic, but the Ukraine war might have changed those calculations,” He notes that the future of China-Russian Arctic cooperation is difficult to predict, but he makes one comparison: “This reminds me a bit of when my mother-in-law wants to stay with us for a couple of weeks “until she finds something else.”

For Russia, the exercise showcasing FSB Border Guards’ maritime capabilities for the Chinese visitors wasn’t aimed at fishery inspections in the Barents Sea. This was hard-core security, as previously instilled by strongman Ramzan Kadyrov’s special Rosgvardia forces in the Arctic, including at the nuclear icebreaker base in Murmansk.

The exercise scenario was FSB fighting terrorists that had attacked Rosatomflot’s nuclear transport ship “Rosita” in Kola Bay. “All the inputs worked out during the practical maritime exercise confirmed the readiness of interdepartmental structures to solve problems in the waters of the Northern Sea Route,” said acting director of Atomflot Leonid Irlitsa.

Rosatomflot oversees Russia’s Northern Sea Route Directorate. The state-owned company is currently boosting the number of nuclear icebreakers and support infrastructure, key to President Putin’s great Arctic ambitions.  For neighboring Norway, FSB Coast Guards’ new cooperation with China could pose a challenge.“Although I think we are far away from seeing Chinese Coast Guard or naval vessels performing tasks in the Barents Sea, for Norway that would entail a new security challenge and make cooperation with the Russian Coast Guard (FSB) even more difficult,” says Andreas Østhagen. Norwegian-Russian Coast Guard cooperation in the Barents Sea is one of very few areas of contact that has not been officially called off by Oslo after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year.

Russia Positions Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Belarus

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President Putin and Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, Eurasian Economic Forum, 24 May 2023

“Belarus is now becoming Russia’s “nuclear queen” on the borders with NATO and Ukraine.”

The current Russian leadership appears to be taking concrete measures to reposition non-strategic nuclear weapons into Belarus to support its military operations in Ukraine, according to the pro-Kremlin site Century. A key element of the Kremlin’s propaganda over the past decade has been its focus on its huge nuclear weapon arsenal, which it interprets to symbolize Russia’s superpower status. Not surprisingly, the Kremlin’s nuclear rhetoric escalated after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Since then, senior Kremlin officials have repeatedly threatened to use these weapons to achieve their objectives in Ukraine.,

The transfer of Russian nuclear weapons into Belarus was not altogether unexpected. President Lukashenko of Belarus has increasingly become dependent upon Kremlin support over the past several years.[i] Belarus’s economic, defense, and foreign policies largely follow those of Russia. Lukashenko has permitted the Russian military to use Belarus as a staging area while  managing to prevent his soldiers from directly participating in the Ukrainian conflict.. To maintain the fiction of Belarus’ agency and independence, the article declares that “Lukashenko has long asked to place Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of his country.” While these nuclear weapons will remain under Russian control, President Putin addressed the training of Belarusian crews to deliver these bombs via Su-24 [RG1] aircraft or the Iskander-M [RG2] operational-tactical missile systems which belong to Belarus.[ii] According to the article, Putin argues that Russia is merely answering the United States in a “mirror way,” since “America stores 200 tactical nuclear weapons, mostly atomic bombs…in six European countries.” The article concludes with a quotation  from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who claims that “the horsemen of the apocalypse are already on their way,” and that if Ukraine tries to recapture Crimea, it “would be grounds for Russia to use any weapon.”

Sources:

Alexander Pronin, “Ядерный ферзь России; Растущая милитаризация Европы и наш комплексный ответ (Nuclear Queen of Russia; The Growing Militarization of Europe and Our Comprehensive Response),” Century (pro-Kremlin site), 10 May 2023. https://www.stoletie.ru/rossiya_i_mir/jadernyj_ferz_rossii_537.htm

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly raised the issue of deploying Russian tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) in the republic with the Russian leadership. The last time – in March of this year. His request is finally granted….

According to Putin, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has long asked to place Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of his country. He publicly announced this desire even before the start of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine, in 2021…

…The next public discussion of the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus took place in June 2022 during the talks between Lukashenka and Putin.

The Russian leader noted that at that moment in six European countries – NATO members – the Americans stored 200 tactical nuclear weapons, mostly atomic bombs….

“On July 1, we are completing the construction of a special storage facility for tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus,” Vladimir Putin said in March 2023 in Pavel Zarubin’s program.

…And he added that the training of Belarusian crews will begin on April 3. According to him, there are already carriers of (Russian) nuclear weapons in Belarus: these are the Su-24s, the Iskander-M operational-tactical missile systems, modified by agreement with Minsk, as well as our MiG-31s [RG1] ​​with Kinzhals, all this is covered modern air defense systems, including the transferred S-400 anti-aircraft missiles….

Thus, Belarus is now becoming Russia’s “nuclear queen” on the borders with NATO and Ukraine….

By the way, special ammunition will be stored and controlled by the Russian army…. The President of Russia made it clear that the decision of Moscow and Minsk is a response to the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, organized by the West.

“Each day of deliveries of foreign weapons to Ukraine ultimately brings this same nuclear apocalypse closer. This does not mean that it will definitely take place. But the horsemen of the apocalypse are already on their way and continue their movement, you can rest assured,” Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, commented on the decisions taken by NATO. In addition, Medvedev warned that Ukraine’s attempt to retake Crimea would be grounds to use any weapon, including those provided for by the “fundamentals of the doctrine of nuclear deterrence.” He believes that an attempt to “split off part of the state” is equal to “an encroachment on the existence of the state itself.”

Notes:

[i] On paper, at least, Russia and Belarus have formed a “Union State.” The strength of this union improved after President Lukashenko appealed for Kremlin assistance in the summer of 2020. Lukashenko had falsified presidential election results, and when large protests broke out, Russia provided economic and security assistance to quell the demonstrations. Since then, Lukashenko’s room to maneuver has been limited.

[ii] Russia has repeatedly promised to move an airbase into western Belarus for the past several years. There has been some speculation that Russia will use this base as the storage site for its non-strategic nuclear weapons. For background, see: Ray Finch, “Russia Deploying Anti-NATO Air Assets in Belarus Under Guise of Training,” OE Watch, July 2021. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/p/oe-watch-issues

Image Information:

Image: President Putin and Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, Eurasian Economic Forum, 24 May 2023
Source: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71198/photos/71199
Attribution: CCA 4.0 Intl

The Splitting of the Russian Western Military District

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Sukhoi Su-25 [RG1] of the Russian Air Force landing at Vladivostok

“A new air and air defense army will be deployed against NATO…”

Russia announced plans for a large expansion of the Russian Armed Forces at an extended session of the collegium of the Russian Ministry of Defense held in December 2022.1Part of this plan involved the creation of two military districts and a new air and air defense army. The accompanying excerpted article from the pro-Kremlin daily newspaper Izvestiya discusses how Russian plans to create these two military districts and suggests how the new air and air defense army will be created. The Western Military District, which was created during the ‘New Look’ reforms, will be split into two new military districts that restore the previously abolished Moscow and Leningrad military districts.[i] The 6th Air and Air Defense Army in St. Petersburg will likely remain at its present location, and the new air and air defense army will likely be assigned to the Moscow Military District. The preponderance of the new air and air defense army’s combat power will be drawn from units currently in the 6th Air and Air Defense Army.

Sources:

Roman Kretsul Alexey Ramm, “Полетный рубеж: новая армия ВВС и ПВО прикроет западные границы России Ее развернут в Московском или Ленинградском военном округе (Flight milestone: the new army of the Air Force and Air Defense will cover the western borders of Russia It will be deployed in the Moscow or Leningrad military district),” Izvestiya (Pro-Kremlin daily newspaper), 6 June 2023. https://iz.ru/1523908/roman-kretcul-aleksei-ramm/poletnyi-rubezh-novaia-armiia-vvs-i-pvo-prikroet-zapadnye-granitcy-rossii

A new air and air defense army will be deployed against NATO, sources in the Russian Defense Ministry told Izvestia. It will be formed in the Western strategic direction as part of the Moscow or Leningrad military district. It will consist of several fighter regiments, a bomber regiment, an army aviation brigade, as well as air defense units and radiotechnical troops. According to experts, the strengthening of the western borders by the Aerospace Forces is especially important against the backdrop of the entry into NATO of Finland and, in the near future, Sweden…

In early June, the head of the Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate (GOMU) of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Yevgeny Burdinsky, confirmed that two military districts would be created this year. He also announced plans to create two armies – combined arms and air and air defense. The direction where they will be formed, Burdinsky did not specify…

Currently, the Western Military District includes the 6th Air and Air Defense Army. It consists of one composite aviation division, several helicopter regiments, and an army aviation brigade. Also, this formation has two air defense divisions equipped with S-300 [RG1] and S-400 [RG2] anti-aircraft systems. The zone of responsibility of the 6th Army is one of the biggest. It covers the territory of Russia from Karelia to Voronezh…This is not the first time in recent memory that the Ministry of Defense has strengthened the aviation component in the western strategic direction. As Izvestia earlier reported, this year ground attack aviation units, equipped with the famous ‘Rooks’, of the Su-25 attack family, should appear here. Until recently, there was not a single strike aviation regiment in the Western Military District. The task of the “Rooks” will be the direct support of the Ground Forces on the battlefield. The attack aircraft will also coordinate with army aviation helicopters…

Notes:

[i] The ‘New Look’ reforms were a series of major Russian military reforms that occurred from 2009-2012.

Image Information:

Image: Sukhoi Su-25 [RG1] of the Russian Air Force landing at Vladivostok
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-25#/media/File:Sukhoi_Su-25_of_the_Russian_Air_Force_landing_at_Vladivostok_(8683076150).jpg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 2.0

People’s Liberation Army Continues To Integrate Intelligent Technology Into Training

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“This exercise applies the intelligent training and examination system throughout the entire process, which is a measure taken by the brigade to improve the quality and effectiveness of training and preparation by utilizing technological achievements.”

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is trying to improve training to overcome a lack of combat experience by incorporating advanced technologies to enhance combat drills. The recent article from the PLA Daily, excerpted below, details the incorporation of intelligent technologies into simulated confrontation training as well as the use of equipment simulators by a brigade from the 80th Group Army, Northern Theater Command. The intelligent training and examination system quantifies and evaluates the quality of training by the unit and standardizes assessments for a uniform comparison of training between units. The system conducts monitoring throughout the exercise and provides automatic scoring and a video recording to reduce data errors typical of manual recording. It also generates a training trend chart to identify shortcomings and weaknesses.

The PLA is reforming training to provide realistic training and enhance combat capabilities within the force.[i] The incorporation of intelligent technologies to standardize assessments and provide accurate historical databases to compare training for comparison of unit training and to provide uniform training and assessments of unit capabilities. The employment of weapons and equipment simulators provides efficient and economical training for personnel. The unit’s man-portable surface-to-air missile simulation training room used a smart sensor helmet to track, lock, and strike to target. The “intelligent examiner” records the firing and updates the training database. The system provides an evaluation of the training.

Sources:

“第八十集团军某旅 – “智能考官”助力精准施训 (A Brigade in the 80th Group Army – The “Intelligent Examiner” Facilitates Precision Training),” PLA Daily (Official PRC Military Newspaper), 8 May 2023. http://www.81.cn/szb_223187/szbxq/index.html?paperName=jfjb&paperDate=2023-05-08&paperNumber=01&articleid=905162

“The intelligent training and examination system is equivalent to an ‘intelligent examiner’, which can quantitatively evaluate the level of training. It is not only intelligent and efficient but also enhances the normalization and standardization of assessments. According to the commander of the brigade, this system can achieve full monitoring, automatic scoring, and video retention, reducing data errors caused by manual recording, and is conducive to improving the quality and efficiency of officers and soldiers’ training and examination.”

It is understood that at the beginning of this year, the brigade used an intelligent training and examination system to collect training data for officers and soldiers, and conducted a comprehensive analysis to establish training files for each officer and soldier. After each training session, the system can automatically generate training trend maps ….. The commander can identify weaknesses and provide data support for precise training by analyzing targeting gaps, fluctuations, and other factors.

The reporter walked into the portable ground-to-air missile simulation training room and saw a soldier wearing an intelligent sensing helmet, carrying a missile simulation launcher on his shoulder, tracking, locking, and striking the target. The ‘intelligent examiner’ records the shooting process in real-time and updates the training database. The scoring team restores the on-site situation based on 3D imaging technology, and presents the shooter’s performance evaluation analysis in a three-dimensional manner.It is understood that in the next step, they will further optimize the training and assessment plan, adjust the program parameters of the intelligent training and examination system, and accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements.

Notes:

[i] See Kevin McCauley “China’s PLA Explores ‘Battlefield Metaverse’ Training Base to Simulate Future Warfare,” OE Watch, 05-2022. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/416134

Image Information:

Image: PLA Group Armies
Source: Peter Wood
Attribution: Peter Wood

People’s Liberation Army Transitioning From “Informationized” to Intelligent Warfare Concepts

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Intelligent Warfare: Human-Machine Interface

“Compared with traditional informationized operational system of systems, intelligent operational system of systems exhibit new characteristics such as autonomy, multi-dimensional, resilience, and other features to counter vulnerabilities greatly improving their robustness.”

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) considers an evolution from the  current focus on “informationized” warfare concepts, such as the theory of system of systems operational capability, to intelligent warfare concepts, according to an article in the PLA Daily. PLA researchers have developed a system of systems operational capability theory that advocates an integrated C4ISR foundation for their move towards a joint operations capability.[i] The individual systems are basic warfighting functions—command, joint fires, logistics—integrated into a larger complex system. System of systems operations using advanced information technologies integrate weapons, equipment, and units to create a synergistic effect described by the PLA as 1 + 1 > 2. This capability enables the creation of modular, recombinant task forces at the strategic, campaign or operational, and tactical levels which the PLA calls “operational system of systems.” This theoretical development has brought about the concept of warfare that the PLA describes as “system of systems confrontation,” where the main characteristic of warfare is the confrontation and destruction of competing operational systems of systems. The author also proposes the development of intelligent operational system of systems.

The evolution of the PLA’s informationized warfare to concepts to one based on emerging intelligent technologies is described in the attached article in the PLA Daily. The author makes a transition to an intelligent operational system of systems to describe a task-organized force and warfare based on intelligent confrontation. This updates the current PLA view of system of systems confrontation based on information-based systems to a warfare system based on intelligent technologies. The author views the intelligent operational system of systems as a task force similar to the information-based operational system of systems composed of the required force modules—for example, command, maneuver, joint fires, and reconnaissance—but more resilient, autonomous, robust, and multidimensional.

However, the author highlights vulnerabilities that could be exploited. The intelligent operational system of systems will be heavily reliant on data to support an intelligent decision-making model. The author believes such a model has weak adaptability based on algorithm construction and parametric establishment. The intelligent decision-making model is only as good as its construction by humans, and unforeseen situations could cause errors leading to disaster on the battlefield. System security could also cause risks. Control of the intelligent operational system of systems will be difficult as its modular forces are dispersed across the physical domain, connected by the information domain, and compete in the cognitive domain. Data distortion and information damage can occur during combat as data, signals, commands, and information are transmitted across domains undergoing multiple interactions with humans and machines. Multiple and complex interactions in the command system across multiple domains can result in corruption of information. The author notes that the intelligent operational system of systems will be more autonomous, but many critical actions will still require humans to be in the loop. The contention that, as important as technology is, humans are decisive for victory in wars is a common theme in PLA articles on artificial intelligence. This belief questions the degree of human control the PLA is willing to cede to autonomous systems.

Sources:

“脆弱性：智能化作战体系“阿喀琉斯之踵 (Vu“nerability: t”e “Achilles Heel” of the Intelligent Operational System of Systems),” PLA Daily (Official PRC Military Newspaper), 6 May 2023. http://www.81.cn/szb_223187/szbxq/index.html?paperName=jfjb&paperDate=2023-05-16&paperNumber=07&articleid=905942

“The inexplicable nature of algorithms can lead to risks. As a special adversarial activity, the decision-making process of military intelligent sys“ems should have ”interpretability”, which means that people can understand the logical process and results of intelligent algorithm decision-making. However, the current artificial intelligence system algo“ithms exh”bit a “black box” feature, making it difficult for humans to understand and master its decision-making process. Minor changes and adjustments to simple parameters such as initial conditions and weights may result in complex results. This means that intelligent systems have structural vulnerabilities, unpredictable decision-making risks, and are highly likely to produce erroneous or even dangerous decisions. At the same time, this also leads to hidden backdoors or vulnerabilities in the data, algorithms, models, etc. of military intelligence systems, making it impossible to predict system security risk.It is difficult to completely trust the human-machine system. In the intelligent operational system of systems, command agencies at all levels collaborate with humans and machines, and the human brain and machine brain jointly constitute the command subject. During the combat process, in addition to human brain commands, all levels also need to implement the instructions issued by the computer brain. Due to the limitations of artificial intelligence“technolog”, the “black box” decision-making process, and human subjective consciousness, it is difficult for humans to unconditionally trust and accept machine decision results. This sense of distrust can be reduced through long-term human-machine collaborative training, but it cannot be absolutely eliminated. At a critical moment in the development of the battlefield situation, if there is a disagreement between the decision-making results of humans and machines, it will inevitably affect the speed and quality of decision-making.”

Notes:

[i] See Kevin McCauley, “PLA System of Systems Operations: Enabling Joint Operations,” Jamestown Foundation, 30 January 2017. https://jamestown.org/product/pla-system-systems-operations-enabling-joint-operations-kevin-mccauley/

Image Information:

Image: Intelligent Warfare: Human-Machine Interface
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Internet_of_Battlefield_Things.tif
Attribution: CCDC Army Research Laboratory (Public Domain)