Monthly Archives: May 2022

A Russian Strategic Assessment of Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine

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“The result of the defeat of Nazi Ukraine will be a sharp drop in American and, in general, Western influence in the world…”

The accompanying excerpted article from Russian military and defense industry focused weekly Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer explains that Russian political and military leadership sees Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine as not just a local conflict between two nations, but as a front in a much larger war between Russia and the West.  The author, Konstantin Sivkov, is a retired naval officer and General Staff Academy graduate that served in the Center for Military-Strategic Research of the General Staff.  He is an expert on Russian military modernization and future warfare, the processes of armed struggle, the nature of modern wars and armed conflicts, and the organizational development of the Armed Forces.  Sivkov elaborates on how the Kremlin may perceive the big picture consequences for either succeeding or failing to achieve the campaign’s objectives.  For Russia, the success of this campaign will result not only in the imposition of its will on Ukraine, but also of its narrative on the world.  In short, the Kremlin sees the current conflict furthering one of two competing and mutually exclusive narratives: that of Russia or the West.

Source:

Konstantin Sivkov, “Украина – только начало: Геополитическим последствием спецоперации станет изменение (Ukraine is just the beginning: The geopolitical consequences of the special operation will change the entire view of the world),” Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer (weekly newspaper focusing on military and defense industry), 28 March 2022. https://vpk-news.ru/articles/66370

The special operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine continues to develop. Serious shifts are taking place in the nature of the operational use of the Russian group of forces, indicating a qualitative change in the course of the armed struggle. Under these conditions, the question arises: what will happen next, will the West stop its pressure on Russia and start negotiations, as many Russians hope, or vice versa – will the pressure become even more fierce, will new armed conflicts arise?…

…Thus, we can safely say that Russia is currently at war with the united West. This is a war of a different nature than those that took place in the 20th century. It cannot be declared, because in essence it is a classic hybrid one, from the side of the West…The scale of this hybrid war with the West suggests that it has all the hallmarks of a world war: the presence of opposing coalitions led by global centers of power that have entered directly into a military confrontation, albeit it just in the economic and information spheres, the resoluteness of goals, the use of all possible means of confrontation, refusal to comply with peacetime legal norms with the transition to the principle of military expediency practically on a global scale, drawing most countries of the world into the conflict according to the principle “if not with us, then against us”. That is, we are talking about the beginning of the third world war, which is still taking place in a refined hybrid form – the Western coalition conducts armed confrontation using its proxies — the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in a limited TVD [theater of operations] within Ukrainian territory, while conducting full-scale global economic and information warfare against our country.

…regardless of the outcome of the special operation in Ukraine, the war of the Western coalition against Russia will continue to escalate — the Western and global elites cannot stop without defeating Russia, or suffering a final defeat in this war. After all, at stake is the shape of the future world, of which there are only two variants. One proclaimed Klaus Schwab — the mouthpiece of the globalists. It has no place for states and national elites — the world is controlled by transnational corporations, and is actually privatized by them. An alternative to it is the concept of a multipolar world proclaimed by our president last year at the Davos forum and subsequent key international summits, where states remain the subjects of world politics, and there is no place for the global power of transnational corporations and the corresponding elites.

These two options are mutually exclusive. The victory of one of them means the inevitable collapse, death, at least political and economic sense, and the disappearance of the bearers and beneficiaries of the alternative option into history. Therefore, the struggle has an extremely tough character, when all means are used that can be used without risking their own immediate death. For Western and global elites, the central task on this path is the defeat and subjugation of Russia…

The defeat of Nazi Ukraine will mean the collapse of the entire strategy built by the West and the globalists over the last 20 years. The consequences of this defeat could be catastrophic for the globalists and have a geopolitical scale. Signs of this are already manifesting themselves today in the emerging rapprochement between the UAE and Saudi Arabia with Russia, China’s tough position on the Ukrainian issue, Venezuela’s demand to recognize Maduro as the country’s legitimate president as a condition for starting negotiations with the United States on oil supplies, and a number of other similar manifestations that indicate a loss of authority of the US and the West in the general world order. The result of the defeat of Nazi Ukraine will be a sharp drop in American and, in general, Western influence in the world, which will have the most severe consequences for the economy. Under these conditions, revenge for the Ukrainian defeat may become the main leitmotif of US-European geopolitics.

In turn, the termination of the special operation with the preservation of the current regime, even with a host of various treaty guarantees, will mean a military defeat for Russia. And the consequences of this will be very severe, primarily in the domestic socio-political situation. Such a step will have a negative impact on the international position and status of our country.Therefore, further escalation of tension in the world, especially military, will increase, and we can expect the next stage of the initial period of the third world [war]…

Russia’s BARS Reserve System Inducting Cossacks

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Cossacks in Conference.

Cossacks in Conference.

Reservists in training.

Reservists in training.

BARS servicemen in training.

BARS servicemen in training.

BARS training site.

BARS training site.

“[T]his year the mobilization reserve will include 1134 Cossacks: “A separate Cossack regiment will be formed with these reservists, and they will be commanded by Cossacks and wear Cossack uniforms.”

“In general, territorial defense companies staffed with reservists have been actively participating in the combat training activities of the district since 2016.  One of them successfully completed the tasks according to the plans of the Zapad-2021 strategic exercise, which took place in the Western Military District…”

The accompanying excerpted article from the Southern Military District Press Service describes Russian plans to man its new reserve system with Cossack militiamen.  The Cossacks are an ethnic group mostly found in Russia and Eastern Europe.  Historically, Cossack communities were allowed self-governance in exchange for military service.  Cossacks are no longer self-governing, but their tradition of military service continues in two forms.  First, a few Russian military units are designated as “Cossack” units.  These units are usually found in Cossack areas and only differ from regular units due to the honorific, such as the 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Cossack) of the 49th Combined Arms Army in the Southern Military District.  The second form of Cossack military service is that of the Cossack militia.  These militias are authorized by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation No. 154-FZ “On State Service of the Russian Cossacks” dated 5 December 2005.  In practice, these militias are not usually equipped with firearms and are often used for crowd control and event security.  One exception to this was in 2014, when Cossack units fought in the Donbass.  Interestingly, there has been little reporting of Cossack exploits during Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.  According to the Southern Military District Press Service article, Cossacks from the Terek Military Cossack Host will form a separate regiment of 1,134 personnel.  The inclusion of Cossacks into the reserve system could provide Russia with the capability to put many more boots on the ground in Ukraine, if needed.  (See: “Russia’s BARS Reserve System Takes Shape,” OE Watch #4, 2022; and “Developments in Russia’s BARS System,” OE Watch #1, 2022).

Sources:

“Терские Казаки Войдут в Барс (The Terek Cossacks Will Join BARS)”, Southern Military District Press Service (press service of the Southern Military District), 2 March 2022. https://tinyurl.com/bddy3tpa

The Cossacks of the Stavropol District Cossack Host of the Terek Military Cossack Host will join country’s reserve system (BARS) as part of a separate Cossack regiment. The Terek atamans discussed the formation of a mobilization human reserve…

The atamans of the Great Don Army, Kuban, Terek, and Black Sea Military Cossack Hosts confirmed their readiness to join BARS in mid-February by signing an agreement on attracting “members of the societies as candidates for the mobilization manpower reserve of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation” with the Ministry of Defense.

The document implies the provision of assistance to the military in recruiting the mobilization manpower reserve with Cossacks: “Atamans of the Cossack societies confirmed their readiness to ensure the selection of personnel to serve in the country’s reserve system (BARS)…at least 50 percent of the Cossacks will be registered with the military and meet the criteria for being in the mobilization human reserve”…According to the press service of the Committee of the Stavropol Territory for Nationalities and Cossacks, this year the mobilization reserve will include 1134 Cossacks: “A separate Cossack regiment will be formed with these reservists, and they will be commanded by Cossacks and wear Cossack uniforms.”

Source: V Sosnitsky, “БАРС Отбирает Надежных Бойцов (BARS Selects Reliable Fighters) Armeisky Sbornik (monthly journal of the Russian Ministry of Defense), April 2022. https://rucont.ru/efd/317658

…In general, territorial defense companies staffed with reservists have been actively participating in the combat training activities of the district since 2016.  One of them successfully completed the tasks according to the plans of the Zapad-2021 strategic exercise, which took place in the Western Military District…

As Colonel Igor Yegorov, military commissar of the Rostov Region, explained, the military enlistment office of the region stood at the origins of the creation of a mobilization manpower reserve in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Since 2015, he has been taking part in an experiment to introduce a new system of troop recruitment by citizens who signed a contract to stay in the mobilization manpower reserve. In connection with the decision by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to increase the size of the mobilization reserve, at present the assignment for the selection of reservists to the military commissariat of the region is almost 5,000…

According to the training curricula, the reservists will have monthly training sessions for 2-3 days and military training once a year, as a rule, for 20 days. At training sessions and military training, reserve fighters will learn how to shoot from all types of weapons and drive military equipment, and other practical actions in their combat specialties…As for the specific use of territorial troops, in the formation of which the Southern Military District has real experience, in the event of mobilization, their task, most likely, will be the protection and defense of especially important military facilities, defending rear areas, maintaining law and order in populated areas, and providing assistance to the local population during evacuation. If reservists accomplish these tasks, active-duty personnel and subunits need not be diverted for such duties.

Image Information:

Image: Cossacks in Conference
Source: Russian Ministry of Defense, https://tinyurl.com/46jrsn8j 
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Image: Reservists in training
Source: Russian Ministry of Defense, https://function.mil.ru/images/upload/2019/rezerv_550.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Image: BARS servicemen in training
Source: Russian Ministry of Defense, https://tinyurl.com/2mvuschv
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

Image: BARS training site
Source: Russian Ministry of Defense, https://function.mil.ru/images/upload/2019/UVO1_29.08.21_550.JPG
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

China’s PLA Explores “Battlefield Metaverse” Training Base To Simulate Future Warfare

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“In the face of the surging wave of new technological revolution, military construction can continue to develop and advance only by adhering to integrity and innovation. Keeping an eye on the frontiers of scientific and technological development, constantly absorbing the latest scientific and technological achievements, and applying them to the practice of military reform and preparation for military struggle in a timely manner are the only way and effective measures to win future wars.”

According to a recent article in the official People’s Liberation Army Daily newspaper, the PLA has been reforming its training methods to enhance combat capabilities and create realistic combat environments for troops, in part to overcome a lack of combat experience.  The PLA believes that a “battlefield metaverse” simulating future combat environments can be created where troops can experience a future multi-domain space approaching actual combat conditions.  Such a complex, dynamic, and harsh battlefield environment requires the use of advanced technologies such as virtual reality, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, brain-computer interface technologies, “super bionic” technology, and the Internet of Things.  

The PLA describes a metaverse as a highly technologically developed virtual world existing in parallel and reacting to the real world.  The battlefield metaverse can simulate the effects of new concept weapons such as meteorological weapons creating harsh environments or an unmanned “blue army” to prepare troops in a complex immersive environment.

Creating such a battlefield metaverse to simulate future warfare would not only increase unit combat capabilities.  It would also improve tactics and test emerging technologies required to prepare for and win future military struggles.  The PLA currently employs Battle Labs for testing tactics and new technologies, but short of actual combat, a truly immersive experience would better prepare troops to win future conflicts.

Source:

“Create a realistic and applicable ‘battlefield metaverse’ (打造逼真适用的“战场元宇宙),” PLA Daily (official People’s Liberation Army newspaper), 14 April 2022, http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2022-04/14/content_313630.htm

In recent years, with the development of information network technology, various new terms, new concepts and new things emerge one after another. After big data, cloud computing, Internet of things and blockchain, the “meta universe” has attracted more and more attention.In fact, “metaverse” is not a new term. It originated from a sci-fi concept in the novel “Avalanche” 30 years ago, and now refers to the Internet applications and social life forms that are formed by technologies such as extended reality, digital twins, blockchain, and artificial intelligence. Although it is not known how the “metaverse” will develop in the future, it at least provides us with an idea: with a series of advanced technologies such as the Internet of Things, blockchain, artificial intelligence, etc., it is possible to create a “battlefield element” that simulates future wars. “Universe” provides a super space-time environment that combines virtual reality and Internet of Things for training and preparing for war.

China’s PLA Increasing Use of Simulators and Simulations

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“In order to build a real training scene to the greatest extent, the brigade makes comprehensive use of photoelectric, information, audio, virtual reality and other technologies to simulate the actual feeling of equipment operation, set up a variety of combat environments and complex special situations, ensure that officers and soldiers of different specialties can be effectively tempered in a near real operating environment, and promote the rapid generation of combat effectiveness. At the same time, the simulation training platform can flexibly set the training difficulty, and automatically store the operation process, time, and other training data to further improve the training quality and efficiency. It is understood that relying on the simulation training platform, many new soldiers of the brigade have obtained work qualification certificates, and the talent training cycle has been significantly shortened.”

Several recent articles published in the People’s Liberation Army Daily highlight the increased use of training simulators and simulations to improve unit training, lower training costs, reduce wear on equipment during field training, and enhance unit combat capabilities.   A combined brigade of the 74th Group Army in the Southern Theater Command employs simulator platforms for driver and firepower training.  The armor simulator provides training for desert, jungle, snow, and other complex environments encountered in the Southern Theater.  The first article claims that using simulators accelerates the training cycle for crew members compared to field training, providing practical experience and training qualification certificates.  Simulator platforms include multi-function, networked training systems for armor, artillery and other combat disciplines.  The article also indicates that the increased use of simulators provides both quality training and an efficient means to rapidly generate combat power within units.

The second People’s Liberation Army Daily article illustrates how the Southern Theater Navy uses simulations to boost the combat capability of its destroyer detachments.  The destroyer formation found that use of training simulations was an efficient means to supplement actual combat training.  Units can execute various operational scenarios and missions including logistics functions.   The third??? excerpted article from People’s Liberation Army Daily examines standardization of military medical simulation platforms for medical support at the brigade and battalion level.  The combat medical system is a pilot project by the Logistic Support Department of the Central Military Commission.  The article states that the system consists of multiple pieces of equipment simulating various injuries, wound treatment, and wartime rescue.  The brigade-level system provides medical training for advanced first aid and some emergency treatment.  The battalion-level system provides medical training for basic treatment of battlefield casualties.

Sources:

“第74集团军某旅: 模拟训练平台加快人才成长(A brigade of the 74th Group Army: Simulation training platform accelerates talent growth),” People’s Liberation Army Daily (official news outlet of the PLA), 4 April 2022. http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2022-04/04/content_312941.htm

The leader of the brigade said that the traditional training model has a long training cycle and slow accumulation of practical experience. It takes a long time to train a qualified combatant. In order to effectively solve this problem, they actively innovated training methods, and introduced simulation training platforms in accordance with the idea of ​​”multi-functional training systems, networked training platforms, and practical training standards”, covering armor, artillery and other major combat disciplines, officers and soldiers. You can complete a variety of equipment operation training in the virtual environment, and quickly master the basic skills of professional operation.

Source: “南部战区海军某驱逐舰支队模拟训练助推实战能力提升(Simulation training of a Southern Theater Navy destroyer detachment enhances actual combat capability),” People’s Liberation Army Daily (official news outlet of the PLA), 11 April 2022. http://www.mod.gov.cn/power/2022-04/11/content_4908646.htm

“The combination of overseas training and indoor simulation training has effectively improved the technical and tactical level of officers and soldiers,” said the leader of the detachment. Not long ago, they conducted a maritime confrontation exercise. When encountering “enemy” ships, the officers and soldiers seized the opportunity to occupy a favorable position and carried out fire strikes, successfully reversing the passive situation.”

Source: “全军规范旅营卫勤战救模拟训练器材配备标准 (All army standardization of combat rescue simulation training equipment for brigade and battalion medical service),” People’s Liberation Army Daily (official news outlet of the PLA), 10 April 2022. http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2022-04/10/content_313260.htm

The battlefield medical aid simulation training equipment is mainly used to simulate common injuries in wartime and provide relatively realistic training conditions for military personnel, which is of significance for the generation of wartime rescue capabilities….

The standards include11 types of simulation training equipment for the battlefield medical aid in 6 categories, basically covering the primary first aid, advanced first aid, and some early treatment requirements as specified in the provisions on medical aid in wartime.

Among others, the military medical aid training platform at battalion level, equipped with two types of simulation training equipment for CPR and field first-aid, mainly functions to provide training for self-rescue and mutual medical aid skills for service members, including ventilation, hemostasis, bandaging, fixing, transferring, CPR, respiratory tract opening and respiratory maintenance.

The military medical aid training platform at brigade level mainly serves for advanced first aid and some emergency treatment simulation training targeting medical professionals. It is equipped with 6 types of simulation training equipment for CPR, advanced airway management, puncture training, and so on.

Chinese Observations on the Role and Impact of Social Media in Cognitive Warfare

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“Cognitive warfare through social media can directly interfere with relevant government decisions and influence the direction of the war.”

Drawing lessons from the war in Ukraine, Chinese military strategists see social media as a highly effective tool in both warfare and politics.  The accompanying excerpted article published in the nationalistic-leaning Chinese daily Huanqui Shibao notes that cognitive warfare is playing a historic role in shaping the war, which is the first time combatants have incorporated it into a large-scale physical conflict.  The author notes that cognitive warfare tactics such as “deepfakes” and “accelerationism” over social media deliberately manipulated the world’s emotions and collective consciousness to sway public opinion and exacerbate polarization.  He notes that social media has elevated the role and effectiveness of cognitive warfare to new heights.  It has interfered with government decisions and influenced the direction of the war.

According to the author, cognitive warfare extends beyond propaganda and psychological warfare.  It can be carried out in conjunction with both the physical and information domains.  It can be used in wartime or peacetime and on a daily basis.  It can be waged through public diplomacy, academic exchanges, culture and art, or simply hidden in seemingly innocuous areas such as social media.  The author also describes how cognitive warfare has evolved through technological advances.  The digital technology available during the 1991 Gulf War allowed round-the-clock, real-time televised coverage of wartime events as they unfolded.  This play-by-play coverage had a psychological impact on the entire world, which helped to shape the narrative, but not the outcome, of the war.  Three decades later social media is seen as a weapon in the Ukraine conflict.

Source:

Sun Jiashan, “俄乌冲突中认知战对我们的启示 (What Cognitive Warfare in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Teaches Us),” Global Times (daily newspaper known for its nationalistic take on world affairs), 10 March 2022. https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/477wrRCvjHx. 

The role and effectiveness of cognitive warfare based on social media in the Russia-Ukraine war has reached new historical heights since the 1991 Gulf War.

More than 30 years have passed since the 1991 Gulf War, but we still have a clear visual image of it because, for the first time in history, television media had followed it every step. The information technology that allowed round the clock digital broadcasting of modern warfare by the American television media had a great psychological impact on the entire world.

The 1991 Gulf War, despite near-live digital broadcasting of the war, (however), only offered a narrative of the war and had no direct impact on the war itself. The biggest difference between the role and effectiveness of the 1991 Gulf War and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is that the advent of social media has affected the media and directly impacting the war. Whether it was the so-called “Ghost of Kyiv,” in which it was eventually revealed that footage had been taken from an air combat simulation game at the beginning of the conflict… or the spreading of rumors such as the Nuclear leak of the Zaporozhye nuclear plant… “deepfake,” “accelerationism,” and other cognitive warfare tactics, which can impact cognition through social media, are now being applied in large-scale situations over the course of the war.

…cognitive warfare can no longer be simply seen as propaganda warfare and psychological warfare (as it was previously)…. Cognitive warfare through social media can directly interfere with relevant government decisions and influence the direction of the war. This has been a historical wake-up call for us by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.