“Ballistic missiles were launched both from a nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea and from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in Arkhangelsk region towards the Kura range on Kamchatka. Cruise missiles were launched toward targets in the Komi Republic from strategic bombers.”
In late October, Russia carried out a nuclear weapons exercise in the Arctic. According to the excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer, it is the second major nuclear-delivery test of Russia’s sea-land-air Triad in 2022. The previous exercise was conducted in February, prior to the current Russian incursion into Ukraine. President Putin oversaw the exercise, which included submarine, land, and bomber missile firings. The intended message is that Russia is a competent nuclear power in the Arctic. As the threat of the use of nuclear weapons circulates in the context of the Ukraine war, Russia’s nuclear delivery tests in the Arctic serve as a stark reminder to the world of its capabilities.
Ballistic missiles were launched both from a nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea and from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in Arkhangelsk region towards the Kura range on Kamchatka. Cruise missiles were launched toward targets in the Komi Republic from strategic bombers.
For the second time this year, President Vladimir Putin ordered a massive nuclear weapons exercise. Last time was a few days before the invasion of Ukraine in late February.
The October 26 strategic drill included all three legs of Russia’s nuclear triad; submarine, land-based missiles and long-range bomber planes.
“During the event, the level of preparedness of military command and control structures, and the skills of the leadership and operation staff in the troops were checked,” the Kremlin said in a statement.
The President’s office added that all tasks were fulfilled, all missiles reached their targets.
While Putin oversaw the exercise, his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov, gave the orders to the involved strategic nuclear forces.
“China’s second-strike capability is powerful enough to destroy the globe.”
The following article, published in South China Morning Post (SCMP), anticipates[RG1] that China is going to upgrade its air-, ground-, and sea-based nuclear delivery platforms to fulfill President Xi Jinping’s recent call for a “strong system of strategic deterrence.” SCMP, Hong Kong’s most prominent online English daily, based its information on interviews with various Chinese defense analysts. Zhou Chenming, a researcher with the Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank in Beijing, said that deterrence through conventional weapons during the Russia-Ukraine conflict revealed weakness on the battlefield, with both sides locked in endless fights and neither one able to use aircraft and tanks to overwhelm the other.[i] In contrast, according to Song Zhongping, a defense commentator and former instructor for the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Forces, “Russia’s powerful nuclear triad” had “deterred the U.S. and NATO from direct combat with the Russian military.” Therefore, analysts see further boosting China’s nuclear triad as a wise option.
To do so, Zhou Chenming argued that developing the Xian H-20 supersonic stealth bomber will help to further boost China’s nuclear triad. While Chinese authorities over the past years have remained tight-lipped about its capabilities and progress in development, Chinese experts expect it to have good stealth characteristics to provide defense penetration capabilities; a range of about 10,000 km, extendable through aerial refueling; both nuclear and conventional capability; and a fully advanced electronic warfare capability.[ii] According to the SCMP excerpt, the H-20 is expected to double China’s nuclear strike range. Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy, explained that China’s nuclear arsenal has always been smaller than that of the United States and Russia.[iii] Therefore, China “must modernize its capabilities” and increase its nuclear arsenal to become more effective. In contrast, according to Zhou Chenming, because of China’s “no first use” policy, the country does not need to expand its nuclear arsenal because China’s second-strike capability is “powerful enough to destroy the globe.”
Defence experts say China is expected to upgrade its air, ground and sea-based nuclear delivery systems – or nuclear triad – following President Xi Jinping’s call for a “strong system of strategic deterrence.”
Defence analysts said the Ukraine war and an increasingly uncertain global order had reminded Beijing that conventional weapons were not enough for real “strategic deterrence.”
“Deterrence with conventional weapons revealed their weakness on the battlefield of the Ukraine war, which has seen the Russian military and Ukraine’s NATO-aided forces locked in endless fights, as neither could use aircraft and tanks to overwhelm each other,” said Zhou Chenming, a researcher with the Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank in Beijing.
China’s strategic deterrence will be significantly upgraded once the H-20 is put into service…
Chinese military magazines and social media suggested the H-20’s maiden flight could happen this year, but Beijing has been reluctant to announce any progress on the bomber.
Zhou Chenming of the Yuan Wang think tank said that Beijing’s best option was to raise the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, rather than expand its nuclear arsenal and trigger an arms race.
“Since Beijing has promised to maintain its ‘no first use’ policy, China doesn’t need to expand its nuclear arsenal, as its nuclear technology is now on a par with the US and Russia, meaning China’s second-strike capability is also powerful enough to destroy the globe,” Zhou said.
Notes:
[i]The “Yuan Wang military science and technology think thank” can also be referred to as “Beijing Yuanwang Military Technology Think Tank” [北京远望军事科技智库] or simply “Yuan Wang Think Tank.” It appears to be an independent Chinese think tank that focuses oncutting-edgee technology and highlights aspects of defense.
[ii] See Zhang Lijun and Li Wei, “中国新一代远程轰炸机拥有五大突出特点 (The Five Outstanding Features of China’s New Generation of Long-range Bombers),” China Youth Daily (newspaper of the Communist Youth League of China), 16 February 2017. http://zqb.cyol.com/html/2017-02/16/nw.D110000zgqnb_20170216_1-12.htm
[iii] China is estimated to have 200 to 300 nuclear warheads.
“It is worth noting that this is not the first time the Chinese military has announced a successful land-based midcourse anti-missile test.”
In August, China fired ballistic missiles over Taiwan and into Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) during mass military exercises, demonstrating that the mobility and survivability of its conventional and nuclear forces are improving. In the past seven years, China’s strategic missile forces have been reorganized, expanded, and equipped with several new types of long-range precision cruise and road-mobile ballistic missiles (see “China’s New Road-Mobile ICBM DF-41 Official Unveiled,” OE Watch, November 2019). China continues to diversify its missile defense system platforms and the quality of training for its nuclear forces (see “China’s Rocket Forces Conduct Readiness Training,” OE Watch, April 2019). A parallel development involves the development of anti-ballistic missile systems. According to the excerpted article below, China successfully conducted another test of a ground-based mid-course ballistic missile defense system in June. China is also developing an airborne leg of its nuclear forces to complement its existing nuclear ballistic missile submarines, road-mobile, and rapidly expanding silo-based missile force. Along with its extensive use of decoys, hardened shelters, and other passive defenses, the addition of tested ballistic missile defense systems can only further improve the overall capability and survivability of China’s growing nuclear force.
Source:
“中国成功实施陆基中段反导拦截技术试验 (China Successfully Carries out Test of Ground-based Mid-course Intercepting Ballistic Missile Defense System),” The Observer Online (Independent PRC media), 20 June 2022. https://www.guancha.cn/military-affairs/2022_06_20_645392.shtml
According to the Chinese Ministry of Defense’s public Wechat account, on 19 June 2022, China successfully carried out a land-based mid-course anti-missile interception technology test within its territory. This test is defensive in nature and not directed against any country.
China is one of the few countries that has mastered land-based mid-course missile interception technology. Only China, the United States, and Japan have conducted similar tests. It is worth noting that this is not the first time the Chinese military has announced a successful land-based midcourse anti-missile test.
According to public information, the PRC Ministry of National Defense previously announced that it had “successfully carried out a test of ground-based anti-ballistic missile technology” or “achieved the expected purpose” five times…
In an interview with CCTV News, military expert Shao Yongling [邵永灵] previously commented on CCTV News that land-based mid-course anti-missile technology is a strategic investment in scientific and technical reserves [技术储备] (Note: this term refers to small-scale testing which lays the foundation for more significant capabilities in the future). She said that all countries currently emphasize both offense and defense. China has stated that it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict and has limited the scale of development of its nuclear forces. Therefore, it is necessary to develop appropriate defensive capabilities to ensure the survivability of its nuclear force.
“Extensive coverings have been erected on a mountainside in this arid region, and broken rocks piled up nearby are believed to be evidence of excavation of a new “sixth tunnel” for [nuclear] testing hidden beneath.”
Satellite images suggest that China is expanding its nuclear test facilities in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Popular Tokyo-based news website Nikkei Asia said the images appear to show newly installed power transmission cables and a facility that could be used to store high-explosives and extensive coverings. Also, broken rocks appear to be piled up along a nearby mountainside, evidence that China could have been excavating a new “sixth tunnel” for testing. Other evidence, according to the article, includes a notice in which the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC), a paramilitary organization under the China Communist Party, invited bids for “10 radiation dose alarms,” “12 protective suits,” and “one detector of wound, site taints.” These items could be part of “a project for emergency monitoring of nuclear and radiation accidents.” Also raising the author’s suspicion is that, while there are no nuclear power plants in Xinjiang, the XPCC had stated it will “make 2022 the starting year for strengthening the capacity to monitor radioactivity” (see “XPCC: The Militarization of Agriculture and Construction,” OE Watch, October 2015). According to the article, President Xi Jinping could be contemplating reunification with Taiwan by force if needed. However, as “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has provided a sobering warning about the risks of military adventures,” an added nuclear capability, perhaps small nuclear weapons, could be the force needed to deter Taiwan from seeking independence and the United States from interfering.
Source:
“Satellite Photos Show China’s New Nuclear Test Site in Xinjiang,” Nikkei Asia (Tokyo-based news website that focuses on the Asian continent), 1 August 2022. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-age-of-Great-China/Satellite-photos-show-China-s-new-nuclear-test-site-in-Xinjiang.
…Nikkei has viewed Satellite photographs with a number of experts that appear to confirm China is strengthening its nuclear testing capability.
Extensive coverings have been erected on a mountainside in this arid region, and broken rocks piled up nearby are believed to be evidence of excavation of new “sixth tunnel” for testing hidden beneath.
Power transmission cables and a facility that could be used for storing high explosives have recently been installed, while unpaved white roads lead from a command post in various directions.
China has 2.04 million military personnel. Although that is already the largest standing force in the world – and 1.5 times larger than that of the U.S. – it has been unable to recruit enough troops of late, according to one retired military officer. This is a combination of the old “one-China policy” and a preference among the younger generation for less physically demanding work in the private sector.
The Xi administration may be contemplating the reunification of China, and that would involve taking Taiwan by force. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has provided a sobering warning about the risks of military adventures, not least for the serious shortcomings in the quality of Russian military equipment. Russia supplies China with over 66% of its imported military hardware.
There is also telling evidence to be found in tenders invited from the region. In April, an official Chinese procurement website invited bids for “10 radiation dose alarms,” “12 protective suits,” and “one detector of wound site taints.” This was ostensibly part of “a project for emergency monitoring of nuclear and radiation accidents.” The invitations were issued by the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC), a paramilitary organization under the CCP.
Although there are no nuclear power plants in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, the XPCC said that it will “make 2022 the starting year for strengthening the capacity to monitor radioactivity.” Procurement of related equipment has increased in the region.
Russia has threatened the use of small nuclear weapons on airports and underpopulated areas in Ukraine. The U.S. has so far had no direct involvement in the war there, and some analysts have argued that the possible use of nuclear firepower has made it even more wary of any entanglement.
“The ‘Belgorod’ special purpose submarine, carrier of the so-called doomsday Poseidon drones, will be in experimental operation with the Northern Fleet before later to serve in the Pacific Fleet.”
According to the excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer, Russia recently announced that its newest nuclear-capable research submarine, the Belgorod, will begin “experimental operation” with the Northern Fleet in Arctic waters. Many of Russia’s research submarines begin their work with the Arctic portion of the Russian Navy’s specialized submarine and surface fleet designed for espionage, deep-sea rescue, and special operations. However, according to the article, the Belgorod’s real mission is to carry up to six Poseidon autonomous nuclear-powered underwater attack drones. The Belgorod is likely to join the Pacific Fleet as part of Russia’s nuclear triad when the Poseidon drone system is deployable.
An official press release posted by the Sevmash submarine yard on 8 July says the “Belgorod” (K-239) is a “research submarine”. In fact, the vessel is built to carry one of the craziest weapons of mass destruction mankind ever has seen: The Poseidon is an autonomous, nuclear-powered underwater drone that can deliver its nuclear payloads from deep under water after crossing distances like the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean.
Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Nikolai Evmenov, stated: “… this is a significant day for us” as … advanced achievements of science and the latest construction technologies were applied…. “The submarine “Belgorod” opens up new opportunities for Russia in conducting various studies, allows conducting diverse scientific expeditions and rescue operations in the most remote areas of the World Ocean.” … The statement also adds that the submarine can conduct search and rescue operations in deep waters as it carries autonomous unmanned underwater vehicles. There is no mention of the Poseidon drone weapon armament.
With the U.S. developing an anti-ballistic missile defense system, Russia started to develop a deep-diving response capability. The Poseidon is a 24-meter-long torpedo-shaped vehicle with an estimated range of 10,000 km and can travel at speeds of 100 knots down to a maximum depth of 1,000 meters. Powered by a small nuclear reactor, it could be armed with a megaton nuclear warhead.
The submarine likely carries six Poseidon drones. The submarine also serves as a mother vessel for a deep-diving midget nuclear-powered submarine, like the infamous Losharik, a mini-submarine that got the world’s attention in July 2019 when its batteries caught fire and all 14 officers on board died.
The “Belgorod” has an elongated hull of what was originally meant to be an Oscar-II class multi-purpose submarine, a sister vessel to the ill-fated “Kursk” submarine that sank in the Barents Sea during a naval exercise in August 2000. The hull of the submarine was laid down in 1992, but only twenty years later, in 2012, the Defense Ministry decided to use the hull to construct this giant special purpose vessel. With a hull elongated by 29 meters to 184-meters, the one-of-a-kind vessel is longer than the world’s largest submarine, the Soviet-built Typhoon-class.
The “Belgorod” launched in April 2019, the “Belgorod” started sea trials in the White Sea last summer. The Russian Navy has not announced where the “Belgorod” will be based for the period it will be in experimental operation with the Northern Fleet. It could be Severodvinsk where the Poseidon drone development will be conducted or at Olenya Bay on the Kola Peninsula where the other special-purpose submarines of GUGI, Russia’s Main Directorate for Deep Sea Research, are based. Indications are that the long-term assignment of the Belgorod will be with the Pacific Fleet.
Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) with 9M723K5 Short Range Ballistic Missiles and Transloader of the Iskander-M.
“Lukashenko has asked Putin to help convert Belarusian military aircraft to carry nuclear warheads.”
“The strengthening of the “missile fist” of the Union State can deter the deployment of critical, but vulnerable stationary objects of NATO military infrastructure near the borders of both Belarus and Russia.”
The accompanying excerpted article from pro-Kremlin daily Izvestiya describes Russian plans to provide Belarus with the Iskander missile system. Russia exports the Iskander-E limited capability export variant to Armenia and Algeria. However, according to Izvestiya, due to changing “geopolitical realities,” Russia will provide Belarus with the same version of the Iskander that the Russian Armed Forces field. In a related development, Russian government news service Interfax describes President Putin’s proposal to modernize Belarus’s aging fleet of Su-25 ground attack aircraft and President Lukashenko’s request to modify Belarussian aircraft so they may employ nuclear weapons. In February, Belarus removed verbiage from the constitution regarding its status as a “nuclear-free zone.” This prompted speculation that Russia may be planning to deploy nuclear weapons on Belarussian territory. There have been no announcements from Moscow or Minsk on what, if any, arrangements they have made for such a contingency, but the announcement about the Iskander, which is capable of nuclear delivery, and Lukashenko’s request for nuclear delivery capable aircraft is notable.
On June 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Iskander [missile systems] would be transferred to our closest. According to him, Belarus will receive a variant with both ballistic and cruise missiles.
This means that we are talking about transferring to a partner in the Union State not a limited and simplified export version of the Iskander, but a full-fledged formidable system that is not inferior in capabilities to those that are in service with our country and are now being successfully used in a special operation in Ukraine.
Due to international agreements, the export Iskander-E is limited to a range of 280 km. The deployment of such in Belarus would not bring a serious increase in NATO territory controlled by them compared to the Iskanders already in the Kaliningrad region…
Such a radical discrepancy in the capabilities of the export and “home” version has long encouraged the leadership of Belarus to strive to obtain the Russian version. But the issue of its acquisition, as well as price, for various reasons, remained the subject of bargaining between Minsk and Moscow for years. Dramatically changed geopolitical realities, it seems, will allow Alexander Lukashenko to get a variant in the “top configuration”. It is clear that in the event of a real conflict, it will be possible to use it jointly with the Russian Federation and according to a single plan.
The strengthening of the “missile fist” of the Union State can deter the deployment of critical, but vulnerable stationary objects of NATO military infrastructure near the borders of both Belarus and Russia. The Alliance will have to reckon with the prospect of receiving a highly accurate and irresistible retaliatory strike against them in the event of a military confrontation…
Iskander missiles have already been deployed in the Russian Kaliningrad region. But their additional deployment in Belarus will give a significant increase in the reach zone, it will shift another 300 km to the south.
…the Kaliningrad bridgehead has serious shortcomings. Its limited territory is completely visible from all sides by means of NATO reconnaissance, and the Iskander has limited maneuverability there. Issues of ammunition storage and protection are also not easy. Belarus is much better protected from outside surveillance. The complexes on its territory will have better survivability not only due to the air defense “umbrella”, but also due to their ability to maneuver around the country and even beyond its borders. It is much more difficult to hunt for ground launchers in the wide open area of Belarus than the small area of Kaliningrad. The experience of the special operation has shown that mobile long-range weapons systems are still a very difficult target to counter…
“Президент РФ предложил дооборудовать Су-25 для Белоруссии на российских заводах (President of the Russian Federation proposed to retrofit Belarussian Su-25s at Russian factories),” Interfax (Russian government news service), 25 June 2022. https://www.interfax.ru/russia/847889
President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin proposed to retrofit the Su-25 aircraft in service with the Belarusian army in Russia.
“The Belarusian army is armed with a fairly large group of Su-25 aircraft. They could be appropriately equipped and training of flight personnel could be started accordingly,” Putin said during Russian-Belarusian summit talks on Saturday. “This modernization should be carried out at aircraft factories in Russia. We will agree on how to do this,” he stressed.Meanwhile, Lukashenko has asked Putin to help convert Belarusian military aircraft to carry nuclear warheads. He acknowledged that he was “very concerned about the training flights of US and NATO aircraft, which are preparing to carry nuclear warheads and nuclear charges.”… “It’s very stressful for us,” he said.
