Tag Archives: China

China and Russia Expand Agreement for Arctic Strategic Resource Development

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Russian nuclear-powered icebreaker, the Sabir, in Arctic waters. The Sabir is operated by Rosatom, which was appointed administrative control of the Northern Sea Route infrastructure in 2018.

“The Chinese company will be a main partner in the development of the major lithium field located in the far northern Russian region.”

Russia has signed an agreement with China to partner in the development of a major lithium field in Russia’s far north according to the excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer. It is likely that Russia would like to mine its lithium fields on its own, but the contract demonstrates Russia’s need for a partner. China has already partnered with Russia for Arctic development of oil, LNG, and other resources. The agreement gives China some latitude to exploit territory it would not otherwise have access. At the same time, Russia would be hard-pressed to develop the lithium field without outside capital investment that only China can provide at this time. The partnership agreement also comes at a time when China has shown it is eager to expand its presence in the Arctic and gain access to unexploited Arctic resources.[i]

Sources:

Atle Staalesen and Denis Zagore, “Chinese Developers come to mine lithium in Murmansk”, The Berents Observer,(independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 1 August 2024. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/2024/08/chinese-developers-come-lithium-mine-murmansk

The company MCC International Incorporation Ltd will join the development of the Kolmozerskoye lithium resources in the Kola Peninsula. The Chinese company will be a main partner in the development of the major lithium field located in the far northern Russian region. The company will take part in exploration of resources, development of technology, as well as production, the Russian license holder stated. The accompanying Nornickel Telegram photo is captioned “Hun Ventao, Vice President of Chinese company MCC International Incorporation Ltd signs deal with Igor Demidov, head of the Polar Lithium.”

The Russian edition of the Barents Observer reports that the Kolmozerskoye field is owned by Polar Lithium, a company controlled by Nornickel and Rosatom’s ore mining division. Nornickel’s Telegram channel stated that “The MCC International knows how to project mine processing plants, it possesses its own ore enrichment and lithium production technology.”

The Chinese company will reportedly also take part in the development of battery production.  “The experienced Chinese partner will help us more quickly create a high-tech battery industry in Russia,” according to Nornickel.

According to the developers, the new mine and processing plant are planned to be ready for production in year 2030. It is to be able to annually process up to 2 million tons of ore and produce 45,000 tons of lithium hydroxide and carbonate.

Nornickel is running the major nickel and copper mines and metallurgical plants in and around Monchegorsk, Kola Peninsula. The joint venture with Rosatom’s ore mining division was established in 2021.

Notes:

[i] See: Les Grau, “Chinese Icebreaker Sails to The Arctic,” OE Watch, 09-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/chinese-icebreaker-sails-to-the-arctic/

OE Insight Summary:

CHN and RUS will partner to mine lithium in the Arctic, giving CHN additional access to the Arctic, while providing RUS a much-needed partner.

Image Information:

Image: Russian nuclear-powered icebreaker, the Sabir, in Arctic waters. The Sabir is operated by Rosatom, which was appointed administrative control of the Northern Sea Route infrastructure in 2018.
Source: https://c4.wallpaperflare.com/wallpaper/645/918/543/the-ocean-sea-icebreaker-the-ship-wallpaper-preview.jpg
Attribution: Public Domain

China Introduces New Unmanned Systems in Combat Exercises

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China’s DJI Mavic Air 2 drone in flight.

“In many exercises during the second half of this year, there will be more intelligent AI armaments unveiled.”

China introduced and employed some of its unmanned systems during recent combat exercises, highlighting how it plans to dominate the future battlefield. In the exercise, “Peace Unity-2024,” Chinese participants worked closely with Tanzanian military personnel on new drone combat techniques.[i] According to the article excerpt, published by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology’s official newspaper Science and Technology Daily, the exercise involved combatting a group of (imaginary) armed terrorists infiltrating town blocks to carry out attacks and take hostages. Reconnaissance, armored personnel, special warfare, artillery, and other combat units from both China and Tanzania worked together, while relying on infantry fighting vehicles, assault vehicles, and unmanned reconnaissance aircraft to locate and eliminate the “terrorists.” The article explains that once the drones took off, the Chinese reconnaissance team was able to transmit intelligence to the joint command post for Tanzanian and Chinese commanders to analyze and determine the battlefield situation. A Tanzanian reconnaissance team guided Chinese special forces in from the sea undetected. Once on station, blockading the perimeter, they used a “multi-channel concentric attack” approach to attack the terrorists at multiple points, expelling and eliminating them.

In a previous exercise, “Golden Dragon-2024,” which took place with Cambodia in May, the PLA featured a combat robot dog. Equipped with an automatic rifle, these battery-operated robot dogs could one day replace soldiers. A video published by the Chinese majority state-owned television network Phoenix News Media, shows the combat robot dog entering a building with soldiers. As described in the video transcript, the robot dog can reportedly navigate obstacles and fire at targets. Another video[ii] claims that the combat robot dog can even plan routes, approach targets, and avoid obstacles, making it ideal for urban combat operations. The first video also showcased an unmanned combat vehicle. The combat vehicle is said to have the same type of rifle and machine gun weapon stations as the robot dog.[iii] It also reportedly can be equipped with grenade launchers, bomb disposal arms and other mission-related features. A heavy-lift drone can airdrop it to the enemy’s rear, where it can work in coordination with the combat robot dog. While the robot dog is responsible for clearing buildings and alleys, able to go up and down stairs, the combat vehicle would be responsible for outdoor operations.[iv] While these systems can now be used for remote surveillance and attack, in the future, China envisions using unmanned systems to develop and deploy logistics, transporting supplies, and other items. In short, as the CCTV video explains, we can expect to see unmanned weapons systems appear more and more in future Chinese combat exercise scenarios.

Sources:

Zhang Qiang et al., “‘平团结-2024’联合演习——东非演兵场打出联合反恐’组合拳’ (Peace Unity 2024 Joint Exercise: Joint Anti-Terrorism ‘Combination Punch’ Launched on the East African Military Training Ground),” Keji Ribao (Official newspaper of the PRC’s Ministry of Science and Technology), 20 August 2024. https://www.stdaily.com/web/gdxw/2024-08/20/content_216923.html

During the operation and training phase of reconnaissance equipment, the Chinese participants demonstrated different drone combat and reconnaissance operations… and worked closely with Tanzanian officers and soldiers on new drone combat operations…

During the “Peace and Unity-2024” joint exercise… Chinese participants displayed a lot of the new equipment.

As the drones took off, the Chinese reconnaissance team took the lead and sent intelligence back to the command post. In the joint command center, Chinese and Tanzanian commanders jointly analyzed and assessed the battlefield situation and ordered the joint combat group to advance quickly from the left and right sides, using “ground assault, elite troops, information blocking” and other means to attack the imaginary enemy. At the same time, Chinese special forces took the approach of infiltrating from the sea to engage the enemy covertly. Guided by the Tanzanian reconnaissance team, they effectively located and identified suspicious targets. After completing the joint reconnaissance and perimeter blockade, participating troops from both sides collaborated to adopt a “multi-channel concentric attack” approach, attacking the [imaginary] “terrorists” stationed at multiple points and the eliminating them.

“This joint exercise has a large amount of a wide variety of equipment, including some new domains of equipment such as unmanned and special warfare equipment, which is a distinct feature.”

“解放军8月持续实弹演习 凸显人工智能军事化 (The PLA’s continued live-fire exercises in August highlight the militarization of artificial intelligence),” Phoenix News Media (a majority state-owned television network that serves mainland China, Honk Kong, Macau, and other Chinese-language viewers), 17 August 2024. https://mil.ifeng.com/c/8c41qSICUbG 

The [“Peace and Unit-2024”] joint exercise between China and Tanzania focused on exploring Chinese and foreign joint performances…(they called it) A new model of joint training…

In many exercises during the second half of this year, there will more intelligent AI armaments unveiled. According to Hong Kong Sing Tao Daily, a variety of unmanned equipment developed by China has been put into actual combat exercise. For example, equipped with an automatic rifle, the assault robot dog is able to accurately snipe targets…

In the future, the PLA will use unmanned equipment in field search and rescue operations. According to Hong Kong South China Morning Post the PLA is exploring integrating unmanned equipment into combat operations. A greatly improved special operations team will have battlefield awareness and fire-strike capabilities.

In May of this year, China’s PLA unveiled the intelligent unmanned combat robot dog during the joint Cambodian “Golden Dragon-2024” Exercise, which attracted much attention… some analysts pointed out that a robot dog equipped with automatic rifle in military drills demonstrates that China is changing its traditional battlefield rules… The four-legged robot dog… conducted reconnaissance first and fired upon discovering the enemy. He is a new member of our offensive and defensive operations. In the future, (unmanned systems might) develop and deploy logistics to treat the wounded, transport supplies and other items, even be directly linked to satellites. Integrated AI armaments for remote surveillance and attack might appear in future PLA combat exercises.

Notes:

[i] Peace Unity-2024,” was a joint exercise with Mozambique and Tanzania that took place late-July through mid-August 2024.

[ii] Mikhaila Friela, “China’s Latest Weapon of War is a Gun-Toting Robot Dog,” Business Insider, 28 May 2024. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-weapon-war-machine-gun-toting-robot-dog-military-drills-2024-5

[iii] “前方高能！国产新型战斗无人车曝光 演示视频发布！搭载战斗机器狗同型步枪 可由无人机空投至“敌”后方！ (High Energy Ahead! New Domestic Unmanned Vehicle Exposed, Released Video Demonstration! Equipped With the Same Type of Rifle as the Combat Robot Dog, It Can Be Airdropped by a Drone to the Enemy Rear, Military Fans World),” CCTV Youtube channel (Chinese Government News Network), 12 July 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poHfVmg0QAg

[iv] See also CCTV Youtube video, 12 July 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poHfVmg0QAg

OE Watch Insight:

Autonomous systems, such as a unmanned combat vehicles and robotic dogs are becoming increasingly prominent in CHN’s combat training exercises.

Image Information:

Image: China’s DJI Mavic Air 2 drone in flight.
Source: Data derived from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:DJI_-_Drohne_Mavic_Air_2.JPG
Attribution: C. Stadler/Bwag, CC-BY-SA-4.0

China Conducts Joint South China Sea Combat Patrol Near Huangyan Island

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“If we do not strengthen our countermeasures against the Marcos government, the Philippines, relying on support of countries outside the region, will only become more arrogant in stirring up trouble.”

On 7 August, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command conducted a joint combat patrol in the South China Sea near Huangyan Island. The patrol coincided with a four-nation military exercise conducted by the United States, Canada, Australia, and the Philippines in the same region and aimed to “test the theater troops’ reconnaissance and early warning, rapid mobility, and joint strike capabilities.”[i]

The first excerpted article, published by the Global Times, a Chinese nationalistic tabloid, features Colonel Zhang Junshe, from the Naval Military Academic Research Institute, and Dr. Ding Duo, Deputy Director from China’s Institute of South China Sea Studies.[ii] In the article, Colonel Zhang emphasizes two points. Firstly, the joint combat patrol confidently showcases procedures to include quick threat detection, rapid deployment, control of both sea and air through joint strikes, seize the initiative, and launch further strike operations. Secondly, Colonel Zhang criticizes the coinciding four-nation military exercise as merely symbolic due to the limited number of participating ships.[iii] Colonel Zhang emphasizes that the Philippines involves non-regional countries in the South China Sea to embolden themselves to undertake more “provocative” actions. Dr. Ding Duo continues the rhetoric, accusing the United States of being the biggest external factor disrupting regional stability. He asserts that future multinational exercises will only serve to strengthen China’s determination and commitment to its interest in the region. The second excerpt, published by Direct News, a news agency controlled by the propaganda department of the Chinese Communist Party, features Shi Hong, a frequent special commentator. Shi Hong also places the blame for escalating tensions on the Philippines and the United States.[iv] He strongly advocates the PLA to intensify “countermeasures” against the Philippines as its military continues to participate in joint exercises. The Philippines has emerged as a primary contender against China in the South China Sea, with both sides engaging in multiple hostile confrontations.[v] While China has traditionally used its coast guard to assert its claims in the region, the recent PLA joint combat patrol signals a potentially more aggressive approach aimed at intimidating and demonstrating strength. The timing of this joint combat patrol is clearly intended to send a message of discontent. The trend of patrols may become more frequent, signaling China’s dissatisfaction with the Philippines’ growing collaboration with its allies and partners.[vi]

Sources:

“南部战区位黄岩岛附近海空域组织联合战巡，军事专家：消息中的“三种能力”内涵丰富 (The Southern Theater Command organized a joint combat patrol in the sea and air near Huangyan Island, military experts say the “three capabilities” in the report are rich in meaning),” Global Times (a Chinese tabloid known for reporting international issues from a nationalistic perspective), 7 August 2024. https://hqtime.huanqiu.com/article/4IvXI4qwGPn

The People’s Liberation Army Southern Theater Command announced on the 7th that they conducted a joint combat patrol near Huangyan Island in the South China Sea. This patrol aimed to test the theater troops’ reconnaissance and early warning, rapid mobility, and joint strike capabilities. Experts interviewed by the Global Times noted that these three capabilities demonstrate the PLA’s ability to implement targeted countermeasures against provocative actions.

Colonel Zhang Junshe, a researcher at the Naval Military Academic Research Institute, stated that the PLA’s three key capabilities—reconnaissance and early warning, rapid mobility, and joint strikes—are part of its combat procedures designed to defend national sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity. He explained that these procedures enable the PLA to quickly detect threats, maneuver rapidly, and conduct joint strikes against acts of aggression. This approach allows the PLA to maintain control of sea and air, seize the initiative, and launch further strike operations.

Coincidentally, the Philippines, the United States, Canada, and Australia began a two-day multilateral maritime exercise on the 7th, which was reported as the first joint exercise among these four countries. This marks the third exercise that the Philippines has conducted with non-regional countries within ten days; On July 31st, the Philippine and US navies held a joint maritime exercise in the South China Sea, and on August 2nd, the Philippines and Japan conducted a joint military exercise in the same region.

Dr. Ding Duo, Deputy Director of the Institute of Marine Law and Policy at the China Institute of South China Sea Studies, stated that the Philippines’ continual attempts to involve non-regional countries in joint exercises have only emboldened their confidence for provocative actions in the South China Sea. Dr. Ding Duo firmly believes that not only is the Philippines bringing danger upon itself, but it is also destabilizing ASEAN’s regional stability.

Dr. Ding Duo asserts that the United States is the biggest external factor disrupting regional stability. He criticizes the U.S. for promoting multilateral mechanisms and exhibiting a Cold War mentality against China. Dr. Ding Duo states, ‘The United States does not have many means to intervene in South China Sea affairs. It can only demonstrate deterrence through joint patrols and joint military exercises. However, history and reality have shown that this approach will not affect China; instead, it will only strengthen China’s determination to safeguard its sovereignty, security, and development interests in the South China Sea.”

Furthermore, public reports indicate that the exercises conducted by the Philippines with non-regional countries in the South China Sea are mostly symbolic. In the most recent exercises, very few ships and aircraft were involved. From the Philippines’ perspective, its ships and systems are far behind those of friendly and allied countries, making it unable to effectively carry out its own joint operations. The Philippines hopes that through these multinational exercises, the United States and its allies will support it and increase its confidence in continuing provocative actions. Colonel Zhang Junshe criticizes this approach, stating, ‘ …. the United States and Japan are capable of lending a helping hand to the Philippines, but neither of them is willing enough. They just want the Philippines to charge into battle, and they will not participate in it themselves.’

“解放军联合战巡南海 这一次在黄岩岛附近 (The PLA South China Sea joint patrol is near the Huangyan Island),” Direct News (news agency controlled by the propaganda department of the Chinese Communist Party), 7 August 2024. https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1806726604086346646&wfr=spider&for=pc

On August 7th, the Southern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army organized a joint combat patrol in the sea and airspace near Huangyan Island in the South China Sea to test the theater troops’ reconnaissance and early warning, rapid mobility, and joint strike capabilities. The Southern Theater Command stated that “all military activities that disrupt the South China Sea, create hotspots, and undermine regional peace and stability are under control.”

Shi Hong, a special commentator for Zhi News (Direct News), states that this joint combat patrol serves as a deterrent signal. He notes that the Philippines is frequently disrupting regional stability in the South China Sea and has actively involved non-regional countries to further destabilize the region. The four-nation exercise involving the Philippines, the United States, Canada, and Australia is the Philippines’ third naval exercise with non-regional countries in ten days.

“If we do not intensify our countermeasures against the Marcos government of the Philippines, the Philippines, relying on support from non-regional countries, will become more arrogant in destabilizing the region,” Shi Hong said. “Now the PLA Southern Theater Command is organizing its own joint patrols near Huangyan Island in the South China Sea, which serves as a strong warning to the Philippines and its allies. If they interfere in the South China Sea and challenge China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, the PLA is fully capable of defeating all provocations.”

Notes:

[i] To read the official statement on the joint combat patrol released by China’s Southern Theater Command, see their official Weibo post, Weibo, 7 August 2024. https://m.weibo.cn/u/7468777622?jumpfrom=weibocom

[ii] To watch the Global Times report on the joint combat patrol, see Global Times’ official Baidu post, Baidu, 8 August 2024. https://haokan.baidu.com/v?vid=10881733893047848551

[iii] The four-nation exercise involving the US, Australia, Canada, and the Philippines included only four ships, with Australia contributing a single Boeing Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft, Asian News Network (news coalition organization headquartered in Singapore), 8 August 2024. https://asianews.network/philippines-starts-4-nation-naval-drills-with-us-australia-canada/

[iv] To watch a clip of special commentator Shi Hong briefly outlining his points, see Direct News’ video post, Direct News, 08 August 2024. https://haokan.baidu.com/v?vid=2234121559770488262&collection_id=

[v] Nectar Gan and Kathleen Magramo “‘Only pirates do this’: Philippines accuses China of using bladed weapons in major South China Sea escalation,” CNN, 20 June 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/20/asia/philippines-footage-south-china-sea-clash-china-intl-hnk/index.html

[vi] Agence France-Presse, “China launches air, sea patrols near flashpoint reef as US holds joint drills,” VOA, 7 August 2024. https://www.voanews.com/a/china-launches-air-sea-patrols-near-flashpoint-scarborough-shoal/7733012.html

OE Watch Insight:

CHN conducted a joint combat patrol in the South China Sea to enhance reconnaissance, early warning, and joint strike capabilities. This heightens regional tensions and underscores CHN’s intent to assert its territorial claims, challenging freedom of navigation.

Image Information:

Image: This photo, taken on 12 May 2024, shows Chinese Coast Guard vessels training in the waters near Huangyan Island.
Source: httpswww.chinadaily.com.cna20240516WS66455301a31082fc043c7542_2.html
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

China’s Southern Theater Command Strained by Growing Operational Requirements

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Map of China’s five Theater Commands. The Southern Theater Command has responsibility for the borders all countries and coastline touched by its jurisdiction.

“With instability on the Myanmar border and rising tensions in the South China Sea, the PLA Southern Theatre Command is stretched to the limit.”

Multiple press reports emanating from Southeast Asia suggest China’s Southern Theater Command is being stretched to its operational limits.[i] According to the excerpted article from India media aggregator First Post, instability on the China-Myanmar border due to the on-going internal conflict in Myanmar between government and insurgent forces, and continued tension in the South China Sea, could push the command to the brink of its operational capabilities. The First Post article was published on the heels of China’s announcement that it would conduct three days of live fire drills and patrols on the border with Myanmar beginning on 27 August and ending 29 August. The military exercises took place across a small portion of China’s roughly 1,240-mile-long border with Myanmar and are the latest military operations by the PLA on the Myanmar border. According to the First Post article, the military exercises were conducted to “maintain the safety and stability of the border areas.”  According to the second excerpted article from Singapore-based Central News Asia (CNA), China justified the frontier training exercises and patrols in the wake of recent battles between Myanmar’s military and non-government forces spilling over onto Chinese territory and the conflict generally threatening Chinese infrastructure projects on its frontier.

To the east, the PLA Navy’s Southern Fleet and accompanying air assets, operating under the Southern Theater Command, is tasked with carrying out China’s many interests in the South China Sea as China battles a variety of counterclaims on the features of the area.[ii]

The third excerpted article from Xinhau and published on Chinese military-focused news aggregator Chinamilitary.com noted that in addition to border security and continued operations in the South China Sea, the Southern Theater Command is frequently tasked to help with natural disasters such as the participation of 700 PLA Army personal to assist in the response to flooding in central China’s Hunan Province in July. None of the excerpted articles suggest the operational tempo of the Southern Theater Command would threaten the viability of the command itself, nor that China would be unable to reinforce the command from the other four theater commands if necessary. Still, the articles highlight a myriad of flashpoints within the jurisdiction of the Southern Theater Command that show no sign of abating as natural disasters, the conflict in Myanmar, and challenges to Chinese claims in the South China Sea are sure to continue.

Sources:

“Myanmar crisis to South China Sea tensions: Is PLA’s Southern Theatre Command stretched?”, First Post (India-based news service covering the region), 26 August 2024. https://www.firstpost.com/world/myanmar-instability-to-south-china-sea-tensions-is-plas-southern-theatre-command-stretched-13808289.html – goog_rewarded

With instability on the Myanmar border and rising tensions in the South China Sea, the PLA Southern Theatre Command is stretched to the limit.

China’s People’s Liberation Army Southern Theatre Command is facing an unprecedented strain as it prepares for a three-day live-fire drill on the Chinese side of the China-Myanmar border. This drill, set to commence on Tuesday, is a critical test of the command’s capabilities as it grapples with the increasing instability in Myanmar, which poses a significant threat to China’s border security and strategic interests.

The Yunnan provincial government announced that the drill would take place in several key locations including Ruili city near the townships of Huyi and Wanting, Zhenkang county near Mengdui township and the autonomous county of Gengma Dai and Wa near Mengding town. These areas are close to the nearly 2,000-kilometre border that Yunnan shares with Myanmar making them particularly vulnerable to the spillover effects of the ongoing civil war in Myanmar.

The Southern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army is unique in that it must manage operations across multiple domains simultaneously. This includes land-based operations along the Myanmar border, maritime security in the South China Sea and air operations that support both naval and land operations.

The PLA Navy’s Southern Fleet, operating under the Southern Theatre Command, is tasked with a wide array of missions from routine patrols to potential conflict scenarios with foreign navies. The fleet must also be prepared to enforce China’s maritime claims often involving standoffs with vessels from other nations including the United States. The PLA Air Force units under the Southern Theatre Command are similarly stretched. They must conduct regular reconnaissance missions enforce airspace control over contested areas and provide rapid response capabilities in case of escalation…

This includes protecting Chinese investments in Myanmar, ensuring the security of critical infrastructure projects and supporting China’s strategic ambitions in the region.

China’s investments in Myanmar, particularly those related to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are of strategic importance. The Southern Theatre Command is tasked with ensuring the security of these projects, which include pipelines, roads and ports that are critical to China’s access to the Indian Ocean. Protecting these assets from potential threats, whether from internal conflict in Myanmar or external interference, adds another layer of responsibility to the command’s already heavy workload.

“China’s military to conduct armed patrols, live-fire exercises near Myanmar border,” Channel News Asia (Singapore-based media service), 26 August 2024. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/chinas-military-conduct-armed-patrols-live-fire-exercises-near-myanmar-border-4567376

China’s military said on Monday (26 Aug) it had organised army units and joint air-ground police patrols near its border with Myanmar to maintain security and stability as fighting between Myanmar’s ruling junta and rebel forces escalates.

The patrols will focus on areas around Ruili, Zhenkang and other frontline sections in China, the military said in a statement.

Major fighting has occurred in northern Kachin and Shan states in Myanmar, with artillery shells injuring people and damaging property on the Chinese side, and also threatening infrastructure projects in China.

The Southern Theatre of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army is organising army units to test troops’ ability to “quickly move, block and control, and strike together, and maintain security and stability in the border areas”, the military said.

A unit of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army is also scheduled to organise live-fire exercises on the Chinese side of the China-Myanmar border from Aug 27-29, according to a separate statement from China’s military.

Exercises will be held in areas located south of Ruili, and in other areas around Zhenkang county and Gengma Dai and Va autonomous county in west Yunnan province, the military said.

China said the conflict was having a negative effect on stability and social order on the China-Myanmar border.

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi also said recently that China would continue “its commitment to restore peace and stability in Myanmar”.

“Over 700 officers, soldiers of PLA Southern Theater Command head for flood-hit region,” 7 July. Chinamilitary.com (Chinese military-focused news aggregator) http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/ARMEDFORCES/SouthernTheaterCommand/News_209144/16322315.html

More than 700 officers and soldiers from the airforce of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command departed for Yueyang, central China’s Hunan Province, on Sunday to undertake flood relief and rescue operations.

Carrying 46 vehicles, they are scheduled to arrive at designated areas before midnight on Sunday, with the tasks of inspecting dikes, reinforcing embankments and assisting in the restoration of local production and daily life.Heavy and prolonged rainfall has resulted in flooding in various regions of China, notably causing a breach in the dike of Dongting Lake, the country’s second-largest freshwater lake, located in a county administered by the city of Yueyang.

Notes:

[i] China’s Theater Commands can be likened to the U.S. Combatant Commands but rather than a global focus, their areas of responsibility (AOR) are officially within China itself and the international borders respective to the individual command. China’s Southern Theater Command’s AOR borders Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam (Mainland Southeast Asia) and the South China Sea, and as such the Southern Theater Command has responsibility for this long frontier. It is also anticipated that the Southern Theater Command would support the Eastern Theater Command in any major amphibious operation against Taiwan.

[ii] The Southern Military Command’s air assets also engage in air interdiction missions. See: PLA Southern Theater Command drives away Philippine aircraft illegally intruding into China’s Huangyan Dao, China Military Online, 10 August 2024. http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/CHINA_209163/TopStories_209189/16330462.html

OE Watch Insight:

The high operational mission tempo on CHN’s Southern Theater Command has observers assessing that the command is being stretched to its operational limits.

Image Information:

Image: Map of China’s five Theater Commands. The Southern Theater Command has responsibility for the borders all countries and coastline touched by its jurisdiction.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theater_command_(China) – /media/File:Map_of_Theatres_of_PLA_en.svg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0

China’s South China Sea Strategy Complimented by Civilian Infrastructure

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Nautical chart of the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea, with Woody Island highlighted in yellow.

“China has opened a hardware store on a disputed South China Sea island, according to the local government, as Beijing ramps up efforts to expand civilian facilities and cement claims in the strategically important waterway.”

Building civilian infrastructure and populating the newly built islands of the South China Sea is part of a cycle of building, populating, and defending that population and infrastructure that China is growing throughout the disputed islands.  A recent article in Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) focused on a strategic but otherwise mundane-seeming event—the opening of Xinyi Hardware Store on Woody Island in the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea.[i] According to the SCMP article, the opening of the hardware store reflects the growing number of civilians and civilian enterprises China is moving to its newly created territories in the South China Sea. The article notes that the hardware store serves both Chinese military and civilians in Shansha City, which was established in 2012 to be the administrative center of Chinese efforts to control the islands and features of the South China Sea. Shansha City is also focal point of Chinese naval and coast guard assets in the region. Today Shansha City boasts a population of more than 2,300 civilians, an undisclosed number of military personnel, a civil-military airport, a 5,000-ton wharf, a post office, banks, schools, library, parks, hospitals, and power plant—all the trappings of a modern city.[ii]

The move has also encouraged other nations with claims in the South China Sea to follow suit. Vietnam is building up its presence in the Paracel Islands and has increased its efforts to solidify its position on Barque Canada Reef, a narrow, 18-mile atoll on the southern end of the Spratlys. Vietnam has doubled the size of the Barque Canada Reef to 492 acres since November 2023.[iii] Chinese and Vietnamese efforts to populate the islands within their control do not change the operational environment – they create the operational environment – and should be recognized as tactics used to gain legitimacy for claims to control parts of the South China Sea.

Sources:

“South China Sea: Beijing opens hardware store on disputed Woody Island,” South China Morning Post (Hong Kong-based English language media outlet), 3 August 2024. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3273082/south-china-sea-beijing-opens-hardware-store-disputed-woody-island

China has opened a hardware store on a disputed South China Sea island, according to the local government, as Beijing ramps up efforts to expand civilian facilities and cement claims in the strategically important waterway.

Covering an area of about 100 square metres (1,076 square feet), the Xinyi Hardware Store is located on Woody Island in the Paracel Islands, a contested archipelago known in Chinese as the Xisha Islands and in Vietnamese as the Hoang Sa Islands.

The store, situated next to the cargo terminal of the Sansha Yongxing Airport, opened for business on Thursday, according to the government of Sansha city, which oversees the Paracels as well as the Macclesfield Bank and the Spratly Islands – another disputed archipelago known as the Nansha Islands in Chinese.

Located about 300km (186 miles) from the southern Chinese island province of Hainan, Woody Island – known as Yongxing Island in China – is the largest outcrop among the 30 or so islands that make up the Paracels. The archipelago is controlled by Beijing but also claimed by Taipei and Hanoi.To assert its claims to the resource-rich waters, Beijing in 2012 announced the establishment of Sansha city on Woody Island to administer the disputed South China Sea islands and features.

Notes:

[i] Like most of the features of the South China Sea, the Paracel Islands are jointly claimed. The Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam and China each claims jurisdiction and hold on to shoals and islands under their respective control. All nations with a claim are building out infrastructure to cement control over territory held.

[ii] The opening of the hardware store on Shansha city is the most recent in a number of media publicized opennings. In April 2023 China opened the Kuanzhai Xiangzi hotpot restaurant in Shansha City on Woody Island. See: “South China Sea: Beijing opens hotpot restaurant on Woody Island in disputed Paracels chain,” South China Morning Post, 30 April 2023. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3218912/south-china-sea-beijing-opens-hotpot-restaurant-woody-island-disputed-paracels-chain?module=inline&pgtype=article

[iii] For a recent U.S. media perspective on Vietnam’s herculean effort to dredge the sea floor, fill in land, fortify barriers and erect new structures on Barque Canada Reef, see: “Vietnam accelerates island building to challenge China’s maritime claims,” The Washington Post, 9 August 2024. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2024/vietnam-south-china-sea-islands-growth/

OE Insight Summary:

CHN practices its own version of nation-building as it expands its territories by moving civilians and civilian infrastructure onto disputed islands in the South China Sea.

Image Information:

Image: Nautical chart of the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea, with Woody Island highlighted in yellow.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paracel_Islands – /media/File:Asia_-_South_China_Sea_-_Mui_Da_Nang_to_Shen-Ch’uan_Chiang_including_Hai-Nan_Tao_and_Paracel_Islands_(Paracel_Islands_cropped).jpg
Attribution: Public Domain, yellow highlight by author

Pakistan Under Pressure To Protect China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Projects

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China Pakistan Economic Corridor.

“Pakistan’s economy is in the throes of a deep crisis, and a massive military operation would entail its own costs.”

Summary: After several terrorist attacks against China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects in 2024, China is pressuring Pakistan to launch counterterrorism operations to protect Chinese interests. However, such operations would incur significant costs to Pakistan at a time when its economy is struggling.

Pakistan has been under pressure for years from its partners to do more to counter violent extremist groups operating within its territory. On 26 March 2024, a suicide bomber struck a bus in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan, killing five Chinese nationals and the vehicle’s driver. It marked the third attack on Chinese interests in Pakistan that month, though no group claimed responsibility for the bombing.[i] The Chinese nationals were engineers working on the Dasu Dam, a hydroelectric dam under construction by a joint Pakistan-China venture set to begin operation in 2025. The accompanying excerpted articles report on the fallout of the attack and how China could push Pakistan to do more to deal with violent extremist groups in its territory.

The first excerpted article from Pakistan’s English-language newspaper Dawn reports that Pakistani officials recently completed an investigation into the 26 March attack. However, it may not be enough to satisfy China that Pakistan can deal with the threat from extremist groups. The author points out that an operation against those responsible for the 26 March attack that killed the Chinese engineers is not feasible, as Pakistan believes the group responsible for the attack is based in Afghanistan and any operation would be costly and likely lead to broader conflict in the region.[ii]

The second excerpted article from Dawn reports on an official visit by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to China in early June. Sharif, accompanied by Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, met with President Xi Jinping, who stated China supports Pakistan but noted security issues. While the article does not mention China specifically requesting Pakistan carry out a counterterrorism operation in light of the recent attacks, it does mention that President Xi Jinping asked Sharif to step up efforts to ensure the security of Chinese projects in Pakistan. This is in addition to Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Sharif holding a meeting, and both pledging to protect the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor “from its detractors and adversaries.” For the time being, China is not openly pressuring Pakistan to launch an operation against extremist groups. However, the attacks earlier this year and the June meeting show that Pakistan remains under considerable pressure to deal with extremist groups for the sake of its relations with China and its economy.

Sources:

Muhammad Amir Rana, “Chinese advice,” Dawn (independent English-language newspaper in Pakistan), 2 June 2024. https://www.dawn.com/news/1837210

Pakistan’s law-enforcement agencies have completed the investigation of the Dasu terrorist attack carried out against Chinese nationals in March, in record time. This is, indeed, a remarkable achievement, but it does not seem to have impressed the Chinese authorities very much, as there have been reports that Beijing wants a large-scale anti-terrorism operation, like Zarb-i-Azb, against the militants.

On March 26, a convoy of Chinese nationals travelling from Islamabad to the Dasu Hydropower Project site in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Kohistan district was attacked by Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorists…A joint investigation team comprising police and intelligence agencies’ personnel was immediately formed to address Chinese concerns regarding the capability of Pakistani law enforcers to probe a high-profile terrorist attack.

The reports of China’s demand for a massive counterterrorism operation are reflective of Beijing’s concerns over the escalating threats to Chinese nationals working on CPEC-related and other projects in this country. Pakistan has a history of launching such counterterrorism operations at the request of China. The Lal Masjid operation in Islamabad in 2007 was launched after Chinese President Hu Jintao called Gen Musharraf…

International pressure, including from the Chinese, also worked in 2014 when the Pakistan military launched Operation Zarb-i-Azb in North Waziristan…China’s latest demand regarding a large-scale operation does not seem feasible, as the TTP and its affiliates are hiding in Afghanistan, and cross-border operations would trigger a major conflict in the region…

Pakistan’s economy is in the throes of a deep crisis, and a massive military operation would entail its own costs…

Syed Irfan Raza, “Beijing vows to uphold Pakistani sovereignty,” Dawn (independent English-language newspaper in Pakistan), 8 June 2024. https://www.dawn.com/news/1838561

Acknowledging the all-weather strategic partnership between Pakistan and China, President Xi Jinping on Friday renewed his resolve to safeguard Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity besides extending financial support through investment in different sectors.

“China will, as always, firmly support Pakistan and safeguard its national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” President Xi told Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif…

Besides federal ministers and senior officials, Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir is also a part of the delegation. This was the first meeting of PM Shehbaz with President Xi since assuming office…At the meeting, President Xi told the premier that the two neighbours should focus on “promoting the joint construction of CPEC”, and asked PM Shehbaz to step up efforts to ensure the security of Chinese projects in Pakistan.

…Earlier, PM Shehbaz met Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing, where they resolved to protect CPEC “from its detractors and adversaries”, the Foreign Office said.

Notes:

[i] Earlier in March, insurgents in the Balochistan, Province, Pakistan attacked a Pakistani naval facility that helps provide security for the Gwadar Port, an important component of Chinese economic activity in Pakistan, in addition to an attack on the Gwadar Port Authority Complex, see: Avinash Mohananey, “Attacks on Chinese infrastructure in Pakistan disrupt CPEC, raise security concerns,” Economic Times, 28 March 2024. https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/attacks-on-chinese-infrastructure-in-pakistan-disrupt-cpec-raise-security-concerns/articleshow/108829369.cms

[ii] One estimate from an analyst with Pakistan’s National Defense University put the cost of Operation Zarb-i-Azb alone at nearly $2 billion, with the government of Pakistan also spending an unknown amount on the creation of additional security forces in the wake of the operation to help protect projects in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), see: Bhaswar Kumar, “Pakistan Army can’t afford China’s expensive security demand. What is it?,” Business Standard, 3 June 2024.

https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/china-s-latest-demand-is-a-bitter-pill-to-swallow-for-pakistan-here-s-why-124060200665_1.html

OE Insight Summary:

After several terrorist attacks against CPEC projects in 2024, PAK is under pressure by CHN to launch a counterterrorism operation to protect CHN interests, while any operation will incur significant costs at a time when PKN economy is struggling

Image Information:

Image: China Pakistan Economic Corridor
Source:   
Attribution: CCA 4.0

Taiwan President’s Inaugural Speech Prompts Chinese Military Drills

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A schematic representation of Joint Sword-2024A exercises.

“Lai-style Taiwan independence” will only exacerbate the confrontation and instability across the Straits, inevitably leading to self-overestimation and self-destruction.

Summary: The inauguration of Taiwan’s new pro-independence president prompted Chinese outrage, leading Beijing to conduct large-scale military exercises which represented a “powerful punishment for the separatist forces seeking ‘independence.

During his inaugural speech on 20 May, Taiwan’s eighth president, Lai Ching-te, reaffirmed that Taiwan is a “sovereign, independent nation” and not subordinate to the People’s Republic of China, infuriating Beijing. The first article excerpt, published by Chinese Communist Party flagship newspaper Global Times, blasted Lai’s speech, calling it “a declaration of harm to Taiwan,” and “extremely dangerous.” It warned that China “will inevitably be unified… regardless of changes in the situation on the island or who holds power.”

Three days after Lai’s speech, China’s Eastern Theater Command[i] launched “Joint Sword-2024A,” a series of military exercises surrounding Taiwan and its outer island territories. The second article excerpt, from the Communist Youth League of China’s official newspaper Beijing Youth Daily, describes the exercise as a “powerful punishment for separatist forces seeking ‘independence,’” and a serious warning to external forces against “interfering and provoking” Taiwan. The article noted that “Joint Sword-2024A” focused on joint sea and air combat readiness patrols, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, and joint precision attacks on key targets surrounding Taiwan as well as around the four outlying islands. The goals of the exercise varied. Operations south of Taiwan were to strike a heavy blow to the Tainan region[ii] politically and economically: they aimed to attack Taiwan’s largest port and navy base, Kaohsiung Port, and designed to impact Taiwan’s foreign trade. Operations east of Taiwan were intended to block the country’s lifeline to energy imports, an escape route for “Taiwan independence” forces, and a support line for the United States and its allies attempting to provide assistance. At the same time, the Fujian Coast Guard conducted a comprehensive law enforcement exercise to test their joint patrol, rapid response, and emergency handling capabilities around Taiwan-controlled Wuqiu and Dongyin islands, each located within 10 nautical miles of mainland China. These islands are the main transportation routes to the Taiwan Strait and the “most advanced outposts of Taiwan Strait defense operations.” The goal of these exercises was to constrain Taiwan’s military operational capacity. While not the first time Taiwan’s actions have prompted China to launch aggressive military exercises,[iii] according to Beijing Youth Daily, this is the first time the Eastern Theater Command (publicly) mentioned the mission of “Jointly seizing comprehensive control of the battlefield.”

Sources:

“‘Lai-Style Taiwan Independence’ Agenda is a Dead-End: Global Times Editorial,” Global Times, 21 May 2024. https://tinyurl.com/259ntad3

On May 20, Lai Ching-te assumed the role of Taiwan region’s new leader and delivered his inaugural speech. Lai shamelessly stated in his speech that “the Republic of China Taiwan is a sovereign, independent nation” and “the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other,” spewing various “Taiwan independence” fallacies and hostile provocations against the Chinese mainland, once again exposing his stubborn nature as “a worker for Taiwan independence.” This speech can be described as a blatant “Taiwan independence manifesto” and “a declaration of harm to Taiwan.” It is extremely dangerous, and the Taiwan compatriots should be particularly vigilant and united in opposition.

“Lai-style Taiwan independence” will only exacerbate the confrontation and instability across the Straits, inevitably leading to self-overestimation and self-destruction.

“东部战区位台岛周边演习，三个罕见表述透露重要信号！(The Eastern Theater Command Conducts Exercises Around Taiwan; Three Rare Statements Revealed Important Signals),” Beijing Youth Daily (Official newspaper of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the Communist Youth League of China), 23 May 2024.
https://tinyurl.com/t8c4rsfa

On May 23, Li Xi, a Navy colonel and spokesperson for the Eastern Theater Command, disclosed:

From May 23 to 24, the Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army of China organized the theater army, navy, air force, rocket force and other forces to carry out the “Joint Sword-2024A” exercise around Taiwan Island, focusing on joint sea and air combat readiness patrols, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, and joint precision attacks on key targets. Ships and aircraft approached the periphery of Taiwan Island for combat patrols… This is also a powerful punishment for the separatist forces seeking “independence” and a serious warning to external forces for interference and provocation.

On May 23, the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army continued to carry out training in subjects such as sea assault, land strike, air defense and anti-submarine in the sea and air areas north and south of Taiwan Island, to test the theater troops’ actual combat capabilities in multi-domain coordination and joint strike.

On the same day, Gan Yu, spokesperson for the China Coast Guard, disclosed:… the Fujian Coast Guard organized a fleet of ships to conduct a comprehensive law enforcement exercise in the waters near Wuqiu Island and Dongyin Island to test its joint patrol, rapid response and emergency handling capabilities.

This exercise reflects the integrated design of Taiwan’s main island and outlying islands.

The outer islands cover Kinmen, Matsu Island, Wuqiu Island, and Dongyin Island…

In addition, Zhang Chi from the National Defense University also explained in an interview with CCTV that Wuqiu Island and Dongyin Island are outlying islands of Taiwan Province. Their geographical location is very important. They are the main transportation routes to the Taiwan Strait. The Taiwan military regards them as the most advanced outposts of the Taiwan Strait defense operations. ……In recent years, it has become normal practice for the Eastern Theater Command to organize military forces to conduct exercises around Taiwan Island. However, Zhengzhijun sorted out previous public reports and found that several new statements appeared in the Eastern Theater Command’s announcement. Regarding the key exercise subjects, the Eastern Theater Command’s report mentioned for the first time “Jointly seize comprehensive control of the battlefield”… In addition, CCTV News reports on the specific subjects of the first day of the exercise, which was rare as they mentioned “intelligence” many times…

Notes:

[i] China has five theater commands. The Eastern Theater Command is responsible for Taiwan and the East China Sea. For more information on the Eastern Theater Command, see “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, 2021,” Annual Report to Congress: Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2021, p. 98. https://tinyurl.com/jdredmwb

[ii] The article refers to Tainan as “The political base of Taiwan Independence.”

[iii] Previously China launched two separate rounds of exercises around Taiwan. First after former U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s August 2022 visit to Taiwan and again after former Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen visited former U.S. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy in April 2023.

OE Watch Insight:

The inauguration of TWN’s new pro-independence president prompted CHN outrage, leading Beijing to conduct large-scale military exercises which represented a “powerful punishment for the separatist forces seeking ‘independence.’”

Image Information:

Image: A schematic representation of Joint Sword-2024A exercises
Source: Data derived from https://tinyurl.com/yc55e7wd
Attribution: Cindy Hurst

China Creating Undersea Cable Network in Response to United States Isolation Efforts

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Close up section of historical map showing Islands under Taiwan’s control including the Matsu Islands (upper left), the location of a severed undersea cable in early 2023. Taiwan suspected China of cutting the cable as part of its hybrid war against Taiwan.

“The U.S.’s undersea network is its tool to keep its hegemony,” said Wu, the FiberHome executive.

Summary: China will create its own independent network of undersea cables to assert its independence as the United States seeks to isolate China from the current global network.

A battle has recently been playing out between China and the United States in a bid to secure information, particularly in regard to the role of undersea cable networks. According to the excerpted article from the Japan-based Nikkei Asia news agency, Beijing is working around U.S. efforts to isolate China from the global undersea cable network, which carries 95% of the world’s data.[i] According to the article, China is striking deals and building its own network of cables with regional neighbors, recognizing the U.S. is using its political power to pressure the mostly U.S.-based data companies that develop the undersea cable network, to exclude China from access to future undersea cables. A Chinese executive interviewed by Nikkei Asia asserted that “we don’t care about the U.S. blacklisting” and claimed that the United States’ undersea network is its “tool to keep its [U.S.] hegemony.” He concluded that the undersea cable race is really a diplomatic one, noting that China only needs other governments’ consent to link with China. As per the article, there are least three major China-led projects under construction in the Asia-Pacific region, linking China and Hong Kong to multiple Southeast Asian nations such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. Part of China’s ability to develop its own undersea cable network in the region is that they do not require any new or emerging technology. China currently has all the necessary fiber optic technology necessary to lay its own cables and maintain its own network. That ability is one reason the U.S. sees the global undersea cable network as vulnerable to both sabotage[ii] and eavesdropping by China. Last February, Taiwan suspected Chinese vessels of cutting two undersea cables linking Taiwan to its Matsu Islands.[iii] In response, in October, Taiwan announced it was working to back up its communications network to protect itself in the event of a cross-strait conflict.[iv] It is likely that as tensions continue in the region  two independent networks of undersea cables will emerge and require the necessary security attention by each side to ensure against compromise.

Sources:

Cheng Ting-Fang, Lauly Li, Tsubasa Suruga and Shunsuke Tabeta, “China’s undersea cable drive defies U.S. sanctions,” Nikkei Asia (Japanese global and regional business news source), 26 June 2024. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/China-s-undersea-cable-drive-defies-U.S.-sanctions?utm_campaign=IC_editor_in_chief_picks_free&utm_medium=email&utm_source=NA_newsletter&utm_content=article_link&del_type=2&pub_date=20240628153000&seq_num=9&si=91811959-21c4-44f4-9028-13136a8d0104

Stretching 1.4 million kilometers – long enough to wrap around the Earth more than thirty times – the world’s undersea cable network is the backbone of global communications. These cables lie hundreds or even thousands of meters below the waves, carry over 95% of the world’s data and cost billions of dollars each to install. Using companies like FiberHome, China is determined to break America’s grip on the industry.

The U.S. and a handful of its allies have dominated the undersea cable market for decades, and Washington is pushing hard for “clean” communications networks free of Chinese involvement, citing national security risks. But the quiet rise of companies like FiberHome underscores how hard it is for the U.S. to contain China’s progress in an industry that it has become proficient in.

Unlike cutting-edge semiconductors, where U.S. export controls on production tools have set China’s chip industry back by years, experts agree with Wu’s assessment: China has no need for foreign technology in fiber-optic cables. Instead, success in this industry has come to rely more on state-level diplomatic ties, with politics largely determining who has access to crucial markets and who does not.

“The U.S.’s undersea network is its tool to keep its hegemony,” said Wu, the FiberHome executive. “The subsea cable industry is like a membership club, we all need other governments’ consent to link with their countries. … This is a diplomatic race.”

Arguably the most important market is in China’s own backyard. The Asia-Pacific region is the global leader in subsea cable investment, recording more projected spending from 2024 to 2026 than anywhere else in the world, according to data from Washington-based research company TeleGeography. At least three major China-led projects are under construction in the Asia-Pacific region, linking China and Hong Kong with multiple Southeast Asian nations such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore.

Notes:

[i] For more information, see: Dodge Billingsley, “Limiting China to Undersea Data Cable Network Threatens To Be a Flashpoint,” OE Watch, 06-2024. (URL when available)

[ii] U.S. officials have warned about potential national-security risks from SBSS, a Chinese undersea cable maintenance company that helps repair broken internet lines, see: “U.S. Fears Undersea Cables Are Vulnerable to Espionage From Chinese Repair Ships,” Wall Street Journal, 19 May 2024. https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/china-internet-cables-repair-ships-93fd6320

[iii] The Matsu Islands, officially Lienchiang County, are an archipelago of 36 islands and islets in the East China Sea governed by the Republic of China (Taiwan), situated alongside the southeastern coast of mainland China. In early 2023, an undersea cable linking Taiwan to its Matsu Islands was cut effectively disrupting internet connectivity to the Matsu Islands’ 14,000 residents. A Chinese freighter and fishing vessel were suspected of cutting the cable but Taiwan made no formal protest. See: Joe Brock, “U.S. and China wage war beneath the waves – over internet cables,” Reuters, 24 March 2023. https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/us-china-tech-cables/

[iv] See, Lawrence Chung, “Taiwan ramps up backup satellite network plans in island defence strategy.” South China Morning Post, 7 October 2023. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3237034/taiwan-ramps-backup-satellite-network-plans-island-defence-strategy

OE Watch Insight:

CHN will create its own independent network of undersea cables to assert its independence as the USA seeks to isolate CHN from the current global network. 

Image Information:

Image: Close up section of historical map showing Islands under Taiwan’s control including the Matsu Islands (upper left), the location of a severed undersea cable in early 2023. Taiwan suspected China of cutting the cable as part of its hybrid war against Taiwan.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matsu_Islands – /media/File:Nationalist_China_-_administrative_divisons._LOC_2007633622.jpg
Attribution: Public Domain

China Assures and Warns Japan Regarding Taiwan

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Map illustrates the close proximity between Taiwan and the Japanese Sakishima Islands and Okinawa Islands.

“The Taiwan question is at the core of China’s core interests. It bears on the political foundation of China-Japan bilateral relations and is the red line that must not be crossed [by Japan].”

Summary: China issued both an assurance and a warning to Japan after Tokyo released a plan to evacuate its southern island chains should conflict erupt between China and Taiwan.

In June, the Chinese Ministry of National Defense (MoD) issued a statement that sought to temper Japanese concerns that any action by Beijing might take to reclaim Taiwan would affect Japanese territory. The statement issued on 27 June and reported across multiple media channels including the official newspaper of the People’s Republic of China’s Central Military Commission, Jiefangjun Bao, came in the aftermath of a report that Japan had issued a draft plan to evacuate residents of Okinawa prefecture and Sakishima islands to Kyushu and Yamaguchi prefectures should China invade Taiwan. The Chinese MoD spokesperson pointed out that “Taiwan is China’s Taiwan” and the Taiwan question had nothing to do with Japan, and thus, “China opposes the Japanese side’s playing up regional tensions under the excuse of the so-called ‘Taiwan contingency.’” The spokesman noted that Japan, which had inflicted countless atrocities against China in the past, “should have reflected on its history of aggression and be prudent about its words and deeds.” The statement also reiterated China’s view of the operational environment in the region, emphasizing that Taiwan is the core of Beijing’s core interests[i] and noting that 1.4 billion Chinese would take action should any person or entity seek to restrict Beijing from its efforts to bring Taiwan under Beijing rule. Collectively, these statements underscore the fact that while China does not seek conflict with Japan, it also insists that Japan not impede any would-be efforts to seize Taiwan. As one of the United States’ most important allies in the Asia-Pacific, the delicate brinkmanship between China and Japan serves as a useful barometer of regional sentiment.

Sources:

“Taiwan Question has nothing to do with Japan: Defense Spokesman,” Chinese Ministry of National Defense as reported by Jiefangjun Bao (official newspaper of the People’s Republic of China’s Central Military Commission), 27 June 2024. http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/VOICES/MinistryofNationalDefense_209794/16319219.html

“The Taiwan question is at the core of China’s core interests. It bears on the political foundation of China-Japan bilateral relations and is the red line that must not be crossed, ” said Senior Colonel Wu Qian, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defense, at a regular press conference on Thursday.

According to reports, the Japanese government has released a draft plan to evacuate residents of Okinawa prefecture and Sakishima islands to Kyushu and Yamaguchi prefectures. Some analysts believe that Japan’s evacuation plan aims to cope with the so-called “Taiwan contingency”. Not long ago, Chinese Ambassador to Japan said that if Japan ties itself onto the chariot of splitting China, its people will be led into a fire pit.

When being asked to make a comment, the spokesperson first pointed out that Taiwan is China’s Taiwan and the Taiwan question has nothing to do with Japan.

“China opposes the Japanese side’s playing up regional tensions under the excuse of the so-called ‘Taiwan contingency’,” stressed the spokesperson, adding that the biggest threat to cross-Strait peace is the separatist activities for “Taiwan independence” and the connivance and support for such moves from external forces.

“Japan, as a country that had colonized Taiwan for a long time and committed countless atrocities against Chinese people, in particular should have reflected on its history of aggression and be prudent about its words and deeds,” said the spokesperson.

The spokesperson urged the Japanese side to earnestly abide by the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan and the commitments it has made and stop using the Taiwan question to provoke confrontation.

“More than 1.4 billion Chinese people will take resolute and strong actions against any individual or force that attempts to interfere in China’s internal affairs or hinder China’s reunification,” stressed the spokesperson.

Notes:

[i] In June 2023 Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, reiterated the same phrase in person to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken while Blinken was on an official visit to the region, see: Dodge Billingsley, “Chinese Officials Justify Reaction To Western Presence In Taiwan Strait,” OE Watch, 07-2023. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2023/chinese-officials-justify-reaction-to-western-presence-in-taiwan-strait-2/

OE Watch Insight: 

CHN issued both an assurance and a warning to JPN after JPN released a plan to evacuate its southern island chains should conflict erupt between CNH and TWN.

Image Information:

Image: Map illustrates the close proximity between Taiwan and the Japanese Sakishima Islands and Okinawa Islands.
Source: T.Kambayashi, https://wikitravel.org/shared/File:Japan_Okinawa_map.png
Attribution: CC BY SA 3.0

China Concludes Its Largest Military Drills Near Taiwan

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China’s Eastern Theater Command released posters for ‘Joint Sword-2024A’, showcasing weapons aimed to ‘kill’ Taiwan independence.

“The distance is getting closer and closer, only one step away from the main island of Taiwan, or even a finger away.”

Summary: China concluded its Joint Sword-2024A military drills, the largest and closest-ever drills held near Taiwan. China states these drills test its ability to seize power in Taiwan, reinforcing concerns that future exercises may serve as a pretext for an actual invasion.

On 23-24 May, China conducted its latest large-scale military exercise, Joint Sword-2024A, around Taiwan, including the surrounding Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin islands. These drills were the largest and closest-ever held to Taiwan and signal an increasingly aggressive Chinese stance.

According to the first excerpted article published by the Central Military Commission via its website www.81.cn, the purpose of Joint Sword-2024A was to punish separatist activities of Taiwan’s independence forces and to issue a serious warning against interference from external forces.[i] Joint Sword-2024A was conducted by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command to enhance its combat capabilities through multi-domain coordination. The exercise involved ships and aircraft conducting joint training near Taiwan’s periphery, including the Taiwan Strait and its northern, southern, and eastern regions.[ii] Activities encompassed rapid deployment of destroyer and frigate formations, integration of intelligence data for sea and air scenarios, target acquisition, and joint strikes. South of Taiwan networks of destroyer, frigate, and anti-submarine formations were established, deploying assets for comprehensive submarine detection. The Air Force deployed fighter jets for combat patrols around Taiwan, engaging in joint intelligence sharing and coordination with surface fleets for target strikes. Meanwhile, the Army and Rocket Force assumed predesignated launch positions, initiating preparation for joint strikes in coordination with naval and air assets.[iii] In the second excerpt, published by the People’s Republic of China newspaper Da Wan News, Major General Meng Xiangqi, a PLA professor from the National Defense University, outlines several significances of the Joint Sword-2024A exercise.[iv] Firstly, conducting battle group exercises from multiple directions very close to Taiwan’s periphery is intended to tightly confine Taiwan’s military defense space. Major General Meng stated the exercise demonstrates that the closer Taiwan independence forces move towards external support, the tighter the squeeze around Taiwan will become. He strongly indicates that PLA forces will inch closer to Taiwan’s periphery with each successive exercise.[v] Secondly, Major General Meng emphasized the significance of the exercise’s focus on the southern and eastern parts of Taiwan. In particular, he highlighted the strategic importance of eastern Taiwan, which has traditionally been considered a refuge and a place to preserve combat power by Taiwan’s military. He dismisses this notion, emphasizing that Joint Sword-2024A demonstrates the PLA’s ability to create a powerful firepower network through the close cooperation of its four major services—land, sea, air, and rocket forces—capable of delivering strikes anywhere, anytime on targets, including eastern Taiwan. Major General Meng also pointed out that if external forces were to intervene, they would likely approach from the east. However, the PLA’s ability to control and block access from the east means that Taiwan independence forces would be unable to escape or receive foreign aid. Thirdly, Major General Meng emphasized the significance of implementing a comprehensive blockade around the island. Such a blockade would halt Taiwan’s energy imports, disrupt domestic exports, and sever aid from the U.S. and its allies, effectively crippling the island.[vi] Ultimately, Joint Sword-2024A demonstrates that military drills are becoming routine to signal displeasure and punish Taiwan. Additionally, it underscores China’s increasing capability to convert these exercises around Taiwan into actual military operations at any time.[vii]

Sources:

Guo Yanfei, “东部战区位台岛周边开展“联合利剑-2024A”演习 (Eastern Theater Command conducts the ‘Joint Sword-2024A’ exercise around Taiwan island), www.81.cn (China’s Central Military Commission (CMC), the highest national defense organization in the PRC), 24 May 2024. http://www.81.cn/yw_208727/16310888.html

From May 23 to 24, the Eastern Theater Command of the PLA organized the army, navy, air force, rocket force, and other units to conduct the ‘Joint Sword-2024A’ exercise around Taiwan. The exercise focused on joint sea and air combat readiness patrols, the joint seizure of battlefield comprehensive control, joint precision attacks on key targets, and other objectives. Li Xi, spokesperson for the Eastern Theater Command, stated that this exercise was a powerful punishment for Taiwan separatist forces seeking independence and a serious warning to external forces.

Starting at 0734, the exercise and training began in the Taiwan Strait, as well as in the northern, southern, and eastern parts of Taiwan, including areas around Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin island. After the mobilization order was given, multiple formations of destroyers and frigates moved at high speed to surround Taiwan. Upon reaching their designated areas, the ships deployed their main and secondary guns, missiles, and other weapon systems, ready to strike. The fleet integrated intelligence information from both the air and sea, captured and locked onto targets, and executed multi-type, multi-dimensional saturation simulated strikes. Additionally, ships and aircraft coordinated anti-submarine operations by using towed sonar and buoys and carried out simulated attacks against underwater targets.

The Eastern Theater Air Force also dispatched dozens of fighters to systematically conduct combat patrols around Taiwan and its outer islands. These fighter jets, relying on joint intelligence support and various tactical maneuvers, approached the periphery of Taiwan for combat patrols. The air force formed multi-type formations with live ammunition and flew to designated airspace to establish strike positions. They coordinated with destroyers, frigates, and missile boats to simulate strikes against high-value targets. Simultaneously, the army and rocket force moved into their designated areas, quickly occupying their launch positions to coordinate with sea and air assault forces for joint strikes.

With the support of the Eastern Theater Command’s joint combat system, the theater command’s troops conducted training in sea assault, land strike, air defense, and anti-submarine operations around Taiwan. This exercise further tested their actual combat capabilities in multi-domain coordination and joint strike operations.

“联合利剑—2024A”演习距台岛很近有何深意？专家解析：这次解放军以压倒性实力反切香肠 (What is the significance of ‘Joint Sword-2024A’ being so close to Taiwan? Experts analyze: this time the PLA is countering incremental steps of Taiwan independence with overwhelming strength),” Xinan Evening News (PRC newspaper created by the Propaganda Department of the Anhui Provincial Committee of the CCP), 25 May 2024. https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1799986237998926830&wfr=spider&for=pc

On May 23, the Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army conducted the ‘Joint Sword-2024A’ exercise around Taiwan, involving sea-air coordination, sea assault, land strikes, and other training activities. The exercise aimed to test multi-domain coordination and organize joint strikes, demonstrating the combat capabilities of the Eastern Theater Command troops. With strong determination, firm will, and robust capabilities, they are poised to resolutely crush the arrogance of Taiwan independence forces. There are three significant aspects of this exercise to note: 1) The proximity of the exercise close to Taiwan. 2) The joint efforts to seize battlefield control and execute precision attacks. 3) The deployment of troops to the eastern part of Taiwan and its strategic implications.

Regarding the proximity of the exercise to Taiwan, Major General Meng Xiangqing, a professor and special commentator at the National Defense University, highlights two key points. First, he notes that the approaching ships and aircraft are increasingly nearing Taiwan, being just a step away from the main island, or even as close as a finger’s reach. Second, he emphasizes that the exercise clearly showcases the PLA’s multi-domain control capabilities, with the depth of this ‘squeeze’ being greater and more unprecedented than before. It can be inferred that the closer Taiwan independence forces move towards external support, the tighter the chain around Taiwan will become.

Regarding joint efforts to seize battlefield control and execute precision attacks, Major General Meng Xiangqing highlighted the 3D animations released by the Eastern Theater Command which demonstrated the focus on striking critical Taiwan independence targets. This involves leveraging strategic advantages by targeting coastal areas and dominating sea, air, and information domains from multiple directions. Additionally, the deployment of naval and air assets across vast areas creates a robust firepower network capable of striking any location harboring Taiwan independence.  Regarding the strategic implication of troop deployments to the eastern part of Taiwan, Major General Meng Xiangqing emphasizes it as a significant shift in perspective. Historically, the Taiwan military underestimated the PLA’s capability to effectively project combat power to the eastern part of the island, considering it a haven to preserve their own combat strength. However, recent demonstrations by the PLA, including simulated multi-directional strikes, have highlighted their ability to swiftly deploy troops to the region and assert control over key routes. Should external forces attempt intervention, they would likely approach from the east. However, the Eastern Theater Command’s capacity to deploy joint formations of naval, air, and land forces indicates that Taiwan independence elements would find it difficult to escape, foreign aid would be effectively blocked, and there would be no vulnerable points in their defense.

Notes:

[i] To watch the PRC’s Ministry of Defense (MOD) official response for conducting Joint Sword-2024A, see the MOD’s video post, Ministry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of China, 24 May 2024. http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/xwfyr/fyrthhdjzw/16310980.html

[ii] For a comprehensive breakdown of PLA activities during Joint Sword-2024A, including composition of PLA forces on each day, see Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense daily report of PLA activities, Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C.  https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=即時軍事動態&title=國防消息&Page=2

[iii] Considering information released by the PLA and public sources, Joint Sword-2024A is recognized by observers as China’s largest and closest military exercise ever conducted near Taiwan. See: Josephine Ma, “Mainland China’s military wraps up Joint Sword-2024A drills near Taiwan,” South China Morning Post, 25 May 2024. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3264093/mainland-chinas-military-wraps-joint-sword-2024a-drills-near-taiwan

[iv] To view a broadcast featuring Major General Meng Xiangqing from the National Defense University and Senior Colonel Tong Zhen from the Academy of Military Sciences discussing the ‘Joint Sword-2024A’ exercise, see the exclusive Xinhuanet video post, Xinhuanet (the official state news agency of the PRC known for propaganda and disinformation), 24 May 2024. https://live.baidu.com/m/media/pclive/pchome/live.html?room_id=9254336688&source=h5pre

[v] A visual released by CNA that compares the 2022 PLA military drills around Taiwan to ‘Joint Sword-2024A’, Central News Agency (Taiwan state-owned news agency), 25 May 2024. https://imgcdn.cna.com.tw/www/WebPhotos/1024/20240524/2000x2000_wmkn_02594021293743_0.jpg

[vi] To watch a clip of Senior Colonel Zhang Chi, Deputy Director at the National Defense University, briefly describing the effects of sieging Taiwan, see China Net Culture video post, China Net Culture (a state-run web portal of the State Council Information Office, part of the CCP Central Propaganda Department), 24 May 2024. https://haokan.baidu.com/v?pd=wisenatural&vid=6554376293806421436

[vii] Nectar Gan, Eric Cheung, Brad Lendon, “China says military drills encircling Taiwan designed to test its ability to ‘seize power,’ CNN, 24 May 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/23/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-second-day-intl-hnk/index.html

OE Watch Insight:

CHN concluded its ‘Joint Sword-2024A’ military drills, the largest and closest ever held near TWN. CHN states these drills test its ability to seize power, reinforcing concerns that future exercises may serve as a pretext for an actual invasion.

Image Information:

Image: China’s Eastern Theater Command released posters for ‘Joint Sword-2024A’, showcasing weapons aimed to ‘kill’ Taiwan independence.
Source: http://www.81.cn/zq_208553/16310798.html
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.