Tag Archives: CENTCOM

Iran Opens New Drone Plant in Tajikistan

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Tajik Minister of Defense Shir Ali Mirza with Mohammed Bagheri, chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces.

Tajik Minister of Defense Shir Ali Mirza with Mohammed Bagheri, chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces.

“God willing, in the future we will see more cooperation and interaction from all levels of military defense between Iran and Tajikistan.”

The excerpted article from one of Iran’s major economic newspapers, Eghtesad News, illustrates how Iran uses drones to secure diplomatic objectives.  The article discusses Iran’s Army Chief of Staff General Mohammed Bagheri’s recent visit to Tajikistan, where he attended the inauguration of the Ababil-2 [RG1] drone plant in Dushanbe.  In meetings with Tajik officials, Bagheri also discussed common defense of the border against the Taliban. Tehran appears not to have offered Tajikistan the rights to manufacture the Ababil-3 presumably to maintain its own qualitative military edge among regional states and because of Tajikistan’s continued warm relationship with the United States.  The Ababil-3 is larger, has a reported flight endurance of eight hours, and a maximum ceiling of 15,000 feet.

While some countries, such as Turkey, export drones to cement partnerships with countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Europe, Iranian strategy differs as Iran authorizes the manufacture of its drones abroad.  In addition to providing drones to allies, this strategy also gives Iran plausible deniability in the case of nonstate actors like Lebanon’s Hezbollah or Yemen’s Houthis using Iranian-made drones.  It also creates international clients for ongoing military equipment and hardware sales.

Iran may have turned to drone diplomacy with Tajikistan for several reasons.  Iran has long considered Tajikistan within its own cultural circle because of the common language—Tajik is a dialect of Persian (Farsi), the official language of Iran.  However, Iran-Tajikistan relations have not always been smooth.  Emomali Rahmon, who has dominated Tajikistan since 1994, resented Iran’s backing of the Islamic opposition during the civil war that dominated the first decade of Tajik independence.  For its part, Tajikistan has buried its frustration with Iran and other regional states to make common cause against the Taliban in recent years.

Source:

“Eftetah-e Karkhaneh Tavalid-e Pehpad-e Irani Ababil-2 dar Tajikistan (Inauguration of the Iranian Ababil-2 UAV plant in Tajikistan), Eghtesad News (major Iranian economic newspaper), 17 May 2022. https://www.eghtesadnews.com/بخش-اخبار-سیاسی-57/495755-افتتاح-کارخانه-تولید-پهپاد-ایرانی-ابابیل-در-تاجیکستان

Inauguration of Ababil-2 UAV Plant in Tajikistan
In order to strengthen and develop joint defense and military cooperation between the two countries and with the efforts of defense industry experts of the Ministry of Defense and the support of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Ababil-2 UAV plant was inaugurated in Dushanbe in the presence of General Bagheri and Minister of Defense Shir Ali Mirza and a high-ranking group of commanders in the Tajikistan capital of Dushanbe.

General Bagheri pointed out that the Islamic Republic of Iran, with the efforts of its committed specialists and scientists and using its internal capabilities, has been able to have a significant growth in all military and defense dimensions, especially drones. “Today we are in a position where we can export military equipment to allied and friendly countries in addition to meeting domestic needs in order to increase security and lasting peace,” he said. The Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces described the opening of the Ababil-2 plant in Tajikistan as a turning point in military cooperation between the two countries, adding: “God willing, in the future we will see more cooperation and interaction from all levels of military defense between Iran and Tajikistan.”

Image Information:

Image: Tajik Minister of Defense Shir Ali Mirza with Mohammed Bagheri, chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces
Source: EghtesadNews; https://shorturl.at/hoFNW
NO ATTRIBUTION

Iran Unveils New Drone-Fired Cruise Missile

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A Haider-1 missile mounted on an Iranian helicopter.

A Haider-1 missile mounted on an Iranian helicopter.

“They collectively warn the enemy against any unwise action.”

The Iranian military recently invited Iranian journalists into the 313 Strategic Unmanned Aerial Vehicle base buried under the Zagros Mountains, which run along the majority of the Iran-Iraq border and reach heights of up to 14,000 feet.  While Western reporting tends to focus on the underground nature of the base, the majority of the Iranian press, including the official Holy Defense News Agency from which the accompanying translation is excerpted, focuses on the Haider-1 missile and the Haider-2 drone.

The Haider-1 missile has a reported range of around 120 miles and can strike targets at speeds of up to 600 miles per hour.  According to Iranian press reports, the country’s Fotros[RG1]  and Kaman-22 drones can launch the missile.  While the missile’s range itself may not be impressive, the Fotros drone reportedly has an operational range of approximately 1,250 miles, a flight endurance of approximately 30 hours, and a ceiling of 25,000 feet.  This would place the entirety of the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman within its range.  The Iran Aviation Industries Organization designed and produced the Fotros drone as an air-to-surface missile platform.  The regular Army’s Air Force uses the Kaman-22, which is a multi-purpose platform with a 620-mile operating radius and a flight endurance of approximately 10 hours.  It can be fitted for offensive, surveillance, or electronic warfare missions.  Iran first unveiled the Haider-1 missile attached to some of its helicopters in 2019.  At the time Iranian military spokesman said it would be drone-launched as well, and so this current announcement seems to follow through on this claim.

The nature of the Haider-2 “cruise drone” is less clear, but it appears to be an upgraded kamikaze drone.  The line between cruise missiles and kamikaze drones is sometimes blurry.  Iran points and shoots cruise missiles to target shipping and stationary targets and seeks advantage from a cruise missile’s faster speed.  Kamikaze drones are also guided onto the target but are a multi-use platform as opposed to the single-use cruise missile.

Source:

“Vizhgiha-ye Moshak ‘Haider-1’ va Pehpad-e Kruz ‘Heider-2’ (Characteristics of Haider-1 Missile and Haider-2 Cruise Drone),” Holy Defense News Agency (Iran state run media outlet), 30 May 2022. https://defapress.ir/fa/news/525883

…Brigadier General Shahin Taghikhani, the army’s deputy minister for Public Relations, expressed his condolences over the death of a number of compatriots in the Abadan metropolitan area, and said, “The military has significantly upgraded its unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) capabilities in both quantity and quality, and has for a long time launched the production line of some UAVs.” He called the design, production and equipping of UAVs a move based on knowledge and technology and added, “We presented some of these achievements at the 313 Strategic Drone Base, and apart from reconnaissance, combat and destruction drones, we revealed various types of new Iranian ammunition.

…The Army spokesman said: “The Army Ground Force’s Haidar-1 missile is carried by large drones and can strike from a distance of 120 miles.” Taghikhani continued, “The Haider-2 Drone, designed by the Army Ground Forces, is a ‘cruise’ drone with a range of several hundred miles…Emphasizing that Iran has a collection of bombs, missiles, rockets and other equipment installed on UAVs, he said, “These achievements are the product of the creative minds of the youth in the army, the Ministry of Defense and the hi-tech companies, and they collectively warn the enemy against any unwise action against the Islamic Republic.

Emphasizing that Iran has a collection of bombs, missiles, rockets and other equipment installed on UAVs, he said, “These achievements are the product of the creative minds of the youth in the army, the Ministry of Defense and the hi-tech companies, and they collectively warn the enemy against any unwise action against the Islamic Republic.

Image Information:

Image: A Haider-1 missile mounted on an Iranian helicopter
Source: Mashreghnews.ir https://cdn.mashreghnews.ir/d/2019/04/28/4/2504823.jpg
NO ATTRIBUTION

Turkish-Made Bayraktar TB2 Drones Play Important Role in Ukraine

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Bayraktar TB2.

Bayraktar TB2.

“The achievements of the TB2 drones are the first signs of the impact of unmanned systems in naval warfare… drone warfare will be an integral part of naval warfare in the near future.”

Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones are playing a force multiplier role for Ukraine in its war with Russia.  According to several Turkish defense experts, the way Ukrainian forces have used these drones in the current conflict are marking new chapters in the use of drones in naval warfare and possibly in anti-submarine warfare.  While it is too early to tell if TB2s are changing the trajectory of the conflict, they have given Ukrainian forces a significant advantage and have had at least a psychological effect on both sides so far.

Turkey’s TB2 drones came under the spotlight early in the conflict when the Ukrainian military released video footage of them destroying Russian tanks.  More recently, the TB2 emerged as a key tool in the sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva, although it is not exactly clear what role it played.  As the first accompanying passage from Nikkei Asia notes, one theory claims that Ukrained used TB2s to distract the Moskva when it launched anti-ship missiles.  Another theory claims Ukraine used TB2s to pinpoint the exact location of the cruiser in the Black Sea, enabling precision strikes against it.

In early May, the Ukrainian Air Force staged a raid on the Russian force occupying Ukraine’s strategic Snake Island.  TB2 drones played an important role by waging a defense-suppression campaign over the island, knocking out at least three air defense systems, two Russian patrol boats, and a landing craft along the shore.  As the second passage by Turkish naval expert Tayfun Özberk notes, the attack on Russian patrol boats and a landing craft marked the first successful neutralization of naval vessels by an uncrewed system.  Özberk claims this is the start of a new era in the use of drones in naval warfare.  During this same raid, the TB2 drones also destroyed a Russian Mi-8 helicopter.  As the final passage from an interview with Turkish defense expert Özgür Ekşi notes, this may also suggest a new chapter in military doctrine.  Ekşi claims that if the Mi-8 helicopter was hovering in the air when it was hit, this would indicate that the TB2 drone can also calculate the height/altitude of targets, adding a third dimension to its usage.  He also claimed this would be a game changer in anti-submarine warfare, since anti-submarine helicopters working to detect and track submarines would be at risk of an attack by a smart munition from a drone while hovering in air.

Sources:

Sinan Tavşan, “Turkish-made drones likely involved in Moskva sinking,” Nikkei Asia, 18 April 2022. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Turkish-made-drones-likely-involved-in-Moskva-sinking

“Reports that Turkish TB2 drones were involved in the attack either as a distraction for Moskva or as location spotter of Moskva are both quite possible,” said Can Kasapoglu, director of the security and defense studies program at the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), Turkish think tank.

Source: Tayfun Özberk, “Russian Serna-Class LCU Becomes the New Victim of TB2 Drone,” Naval News, 8 May 2022. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/05/russian-serna-class-lcu-becomes-the-new-victim-of-tb2-drone/

TB2s’ recent attack on the Raptor-class patrol boats on 02 May 2022 marked the first successful neutralization of naval vessels by an uncrewed system. The assault on the Serna class landing craft marks the second one. In both attacks, TB2s used MAM-L smart munitions manufactured by the Turkish Roketsan company.

…

The achievements of the TB2 drones are the first signs of the impact of unmanned systems in naval warfare.  Unmanned systems that provide not only ISR support but also strike operations will provide tactical flexibility to decision-makers on the naval battlefield.  Because such systems can conduct missions without risking human lives, and thanks to their capabilities that are growing daily, drones will become a suitable replacement for manned systems.  As a result, drone warfare will be an integral part of naval warfare in the near future.

Source:  Tolga Özbek chats with Özgür Ekşi, “TB2 Ukrayna’da gemi ve helikopter vurdu, sirada ne var? (TB2 struck ship and helicopter in Ukraine, what next?),” TolgaOzbek.com via YouTube, 9 May 2022. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qo-eKSL0A7A&list=WL&index=39&t=12s

On 8 May, images appeared on the internet of a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 Drone blowing up a Russian Mi-8 helicopter as troops landed on Snake Island… If this helicopter was in the hovering position, [this means that] a TB2 hit a flying platform, which is a success and a new page in military doctrine…  This means that these drones can also calculate the height of targets.  Until now, we talked about two dimensions, land and water.  But now, it can calculate height/altitude, which means it can also hit a flying target.  This is a new thing for air platforms.

Image Information:

Image: Bayraktar TB2.
Source: Bayhaluk via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bayraktar_TB2_Runway.jpg
Attribution: CC BY-SA 4.0

Turkey Tightens Grip on Black Sea amid War in Ukraine

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TCG Yavuz, the lead ship of Yavuz-class frigate of the Turkish Navy.

TCG Yavuz, the lead ship of Yavuz-class frigate of the Turkish Navy.

“We want the balance [in the Black Sea] not to be disturbed… If the balance is disturbed here, the probability of events getting out of control is very high.” -Hulusi Akar, Turkish Defense Minister

Turkey has seized on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to increase its control of the Black Sea by closing it to foreign warships, stepping up natural gas exploration efforts, and holding naval exercises.  The three accompanying articles from Turkish sources discuss Turkey’s actions regarding the Black Sea in these areas. 

First, Turkey has closed off the Black Sea to Ukrainian and Russian warships by invoking the Montreux Convention of 1936, which gives Turkey the right to prevent warships of warring sides (other than those returning to their bases) from using the Dardanelles and Bosporus Straits during war.  Accordingly, after Ukrainian forces in mid-April sunk the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, Russia was unable to sail its two other ships of the same class into the Black Sea to replace it.  As noted in the first excerpted article from pro-government Turkish publication Hürriyet, in addition to blocking Russia and Ukraine from bringing warships into the Black Sea, Turkey has also warned its NATO Allies not to enter the Black Sea during the war in Ukraine to prevent the conflict from expanding.  Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar noted that this would mitigate the possibility of any rivalry and maintain the peaceful status quo in the Black Sea. 

According to the excerpted article from Turkey’s Daily Sabah, as of April 2022, Turkey had dispatched its three drilling ships to the Sakarya gas field in the Black Sea to harness 540 billion cubic meters of natural gas it discovered in 2020.  Russia supplies about 45 percent of Turkey’s natural gas imports, so this effort would reduce Turkey’s reliance on Russian natural gas by about a quarter when it reaches peak production.  Turkey plans to start pumping gas from this field in 2023 and to increase production in the five years after that.  However, this will depend on Turkey first building an offshore pipeline network and processing facilities.  Turkish officials have regarded natural gas discovery in the Black Sea as an important step toward Turkey’s energy independence.

In April, Turkey also showcased its naval power during the “Blue Homeland” exercises  in the Mediterranean, Aegean, and Black Seas.  The article quotes President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s televised address the last day of exercises saying, “We will continue to work until we become the strongest army in the region with our ships, submarines and weapon systems.”

Sources:

Sedat Ergin, “Savunma Bakanı Akar’dan NATO’ya hassas Karadeniz mesajları: “Karadeniz’in dışında kalınırsa isabet olur” (Sensitive Black Sea messages from Defense Minister Akar to NATO: “It will be better to stay out of the Black Sea”),” Hürriyet (a pro-government Turkish daily),25 Nisan 2022. https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/yazarlar/sedat-ergin/savunma-bakani-akardan-natoya-hassas-karadeniz-mesajlari-karadenizin-disinda-kalinirsa-isabet-olur-42050416

[Defense Minister Hulusi Akar] reveals that Turkey made a series of suggestions to its NATO allies not to enter the Black Sea with warships during the war [in Ukraine]. The Minister does not hide the fact that Turkey’s expectation was conveyed to the NATO allies… and says:

…We want the balance [in the Black Sea] not to be disturbed… If the balance is disturbed here, the probability of events getting out of control is very high. Let’s not turn the Black Sea into a competitive environment.

Source: “Turkey to extend incentives for $10B Black Sea gas field development),” Daily Sabah (a pro-government Turkish daily), 20 April 2022. https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/turkey-to-extend-incentives-for-10b-black-sea-gas-field-development  

Turkey will be extending government support for the massive project to develop the natural gas field it discovered in the Black Sea…

Turkey is building an industrial complex that will process the gas the country discovered in the Sakarya gas field, located some 150 kilometers (93 miles) off the coast of Turkey in the Black Sea. The facility is expected to be operational in the first quarter of 2023.

The country’s first drilling vessel, Fatih, has discovered 540 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas in the Sakarya gas field since August 2020.

Turkey is fully dependent on gas imports, mainly from Russia, but the Sakarya field is expected to reduce those imports by about a quarter once it reaches peak production.

Ankara plans to begin pumping gas from the southwest Black Sea field in 2023 but must first build an offshore pipeline network and processing facilities.

…Expansion of the project over the next 10 years is expected to eventually lift annual production capacity to 14 bcm.

…The gas extracted from the gas field will be brought onshore through a pipeline that will be laid beneath the Black Sea.

…Scheduled to be constructed this year, the 170-kilometer pipeline will connect the wells in the region to the main grid.

The first phase of construction of the Western Black Sea Natural Gas Pipeline section will be carried out in two stages…

Source: “Mavi Vatan 2022 tatbikatı tamamlandı (Blue Homeland 2022 exercises completed),” NTV (a pro-government Turkish news channel),21 April 2022. https://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/mavi-vatan-2022-tatbikati-tamamlandi,9-YP3y3e4EWPSlU1jcnlng

…Participating in the Blue Homeland exercises through a live broadcast, President Erdoğan said: “We will continue to work until we become the strongest army in the region with our ships, submarines and weapon systems.”

Blue Homeland exercises… in coordination with the personnel in the Black Sea, Aegean and eastern Mediterranean, concluded successfully. Airplanes, ships and our personnel have shown that they are always ready for the exercise.

It is imperative for Turkey to have a strong naval force. We attach special importance to developing our naval forces in terms of equipment and personnel and to make the highest contribution to the defense of the homeland.

We will continue to work until we become the strongest army in the region with our ships, submarines and weapon systems.

Image Information:

Image: TCG Yavuz, the lead ship of Yavuz-class frigate of the Turkish Navy.
Source: Nevit Dilmen, Own Work, via Wikimedia,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Istanbul_1000146_Nevit.jpg
Attribution: CC-BY-SA-3.0 | GFDL | Self-published work

Iranian Navy Joins Indian Naval Exercises

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Iran’s “Dana” Destroyer, which participated in the IONS 2022 Exercises off Goa, India.

Iran’s “Dana” Destroyer, which participated in the IONS 2022 Exercises off Goa, India.

“The presence of the Navy in open waters … shows the authority of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the maritime arena.”

The excerpted article from Iranian media source Fars News Agency reflects on the increasing operations of the Iranian Navy in the Indian Ocean basin.  The article describes a combined naval exercise called the IONS Maritime Exercise 2022 (IMEX 2022) near the southern Indian city of Goa.  The exercise was sponsored by the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS), which consists of 24 Indian Ocean littoral states, including Australia and France (due to its possession of the Indian Ocean island of Mayotte).  The participation of the Iranian destroyer Dena and maritime reconnaissance aircraft and helicopters in the exercise—even when coupled with India’s and Iran’s regular exchange of naval port calls—does not mean that India and Iran are developing a special relationship.  At a minimum, Iranian participation 1,400 miles away from Hormuz demonstrates the Iranian Navy’s growing confidence operating in blue water.  The exercises, which excluded China, also reflect a growing recognition in India that competition with China in the Indian Ocean mandates interoperability amongst Middle Eastern, South Asian, and East African states.  Notably, IONS member Pakistan, a traditional adversary of India as well as a client of China, did not participate in the Goa exercises.

Source:

“Agaz-e Razmayesh Marakab-e Darya-ye IONS 2022 ba Hazor Navshakan Tamam Irani (A Domestically-Manufactured Iranian Destroyer Joins the IONS 2022 Combined Naval Exercises),” Fars News Agency (media outlet close to Iran’s defense and security apparatus), 29 March 2022. https://www.farsnews.ir/news/14010109000323

After holding briefings, workshops and visiting the fleets of the two sides, this morning the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) Combined Naval Exercise (IMEX 22) began in Goa with the participation of Islamic Republic of Iran Navy, India, Bangladesh and the Indian Ocean countries and the participation of 14 IONS members. 

Captain Farhad Fattahi, commander of the Naval Expeditionary Fleet, said that the Islamic Republic of Iran currently chairs the IONS Maritime Security Committee, and said, “IMEX 2022 exercise will be held in two phases, coastal and naval. The coastal phase includes includes briefings, training workshops and visits to the fleets of the two sides. In the naval phase, specialized naval operations including formulation exercises, guard officer maneuvers, medical aid exchange operations, rescue operations, tests and assessments will be carried out…” 

Emphasizing that today the Navy has become a decisive force in various fields, he stated, “The presence of the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy in open waters and its participation in multilateral exercises with countries around the world, shows the authority of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the maritime arena and [our] effective interaction with other countries in securing maritime prosperity and world peace.

Image Information:

Image: Iran’s “Dana” Destroyer, which participated in the IONS 2022 Exercises off Goa, India
Source: Islamic Republic News Agency
https://img9.irna.ir/d/r2/2022/03/29/4/169562898.jpg?ts=1648547583599
Attribution:

Turkey Central To Reducing Europe’s Dependence on Russian Natural Gas

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Map of the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (the central part of the Southern Gas Corridor, which connects the giant Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan to Europe through the South Caucasus Pipeline and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline.

Map of the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (the central part of the Southern Gas Corridor, which connects the giant Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan to Europe through the South Caucasus Pipeline and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline.

The two excerpted articles suggest that Europe could reduce or eliminate its dependence on Russian natural gas by using possible alternatives from the Middle East via Turkey.  The first article from Turkey’s state-owned news agency, Anadolu Ajansı, looks at a potential Turkey-Israeli natural gas pipeline that would pump Eastern Mediterranean gas reserves to Europe.  Israeli President Isaac Herzog revived this idea during his visit to Ankara in early March 2022.  Accordingly, the article states that the issue was on both Turkey’s and Israel’s agenda.  Turkish President Erdoğan reportedly signaled that the sides would continue to work to determine concrete steps on proposed routes.

The excerpted article from security news site al-Monitor explores the option of Europe importing natural gas from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq via Turkey.  It warns that this will likely increase the rivalry between Turkey and Iran, as Iran would perceive it as a threat to its energy market.  On 13 March, Iranian missiles struck Erbil and one target was the villa of a Kurdish businessman involved in the Kurdish region’s energy sector.  The article notes that a key trigger for the strikes was a plan to pump Kurdish natural gas into Turkey and Europe with the help of Israel.  The article refers to several statements made by both Kurdish and Turkish officials indicating such plans.  For example, President of the Kurdistan Region Masrour Barzani said on 28 March that the region would “become a net exporter of gas to the rest of Iraq, Turkey, and Europe in the near future and help meet their energy security needs.”  President Erdoğan also stated that Turkey was gearing up for new energy projects.

Source:

Haydar Oruç, “Türkiye-İsrail normalleşmesinin enerji boyutu (Energy Dimension of Turkey-Israel Normalization),” Anadolu Ajansı (Turkey’s state-owned news agency), 11 March 2021.https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz/turkiye-israil-normallesmesinin-enerji-boyutu/2531776

Undoubtedly, the issue that comes to the fore at first glance is energy cooperation…

…after the Russian invasion of Ukraine the issues experienced in energy supply, Europe feels the need to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supply. And this reality puts Eastern Mediterranean gas one step ahead of other alternatives.

When the [EastMed Pipeline] project is implemented, first of all, Turkey’s energy supply will be diversified… Iran, which has supplied most of Turkey’s energy needs previously, being subjected to international sanctions complicates the sustainability of the gas its gas supplies… In addition, Iran’s desire to use gas as a political tool from time to time also harms relations.

Similarly, recent international sanctions on Russia makes its [energy] source unsustainable. Therefore, the emergence of Eastern Mediterranean gas as an alternative source is extremely important in terms of energy security. This will increase the importance and value of Turkey in the energy market.

…if Turkey and Israel reach an agreement for the delivery of Eastern Mediterranean gas to Europe via Turkey, energy supplies will be diversified, energy routes will be secured…

Source: “Erdoğan: Turkey-Israel Gas pipeline on the agenda,” Yetkin Report (blog of veteran Turkish Journalist Murat Yetkin),31 March 2022. https://yetkinreport.com/en/2022/03/31/erdogan-turkey-israel-gas-pipeline-on-the-agenda/ 

Is Turkey-Israel gas pipeline project on the agenda as an alternative to Russian streams? Erdoğan answered Turkish journalist’s questions on March 33… stating that a gas pipeline crossing through Turkey is on the agenda.

“We discussed many issues in detail with Mr. Herzog, especially the energy issue. In the past, there were some relations, contacts between Israel and Turkey regarding energy… Laying pipes under the sea from Israel to Greece, to Europe, is not a feasible thing to do. As a result of the cost calculations, it is seen that the most suitable way for this is [the passage] of this natural gas [pipeline] through Turkey. Of course, they are already making assessment on the issue…”

Erdoğan added that he proposed a bilateral meeting between Ministers of Foreign Affairs, and Energy and Natural Resources to discuss the energy issue in detail, and said that Israeli President’s response was positive on this proposal…

“…the cooperation between Israel and Turkey here will accelerate the process related to Eastern Mediterranean oil and natural gas. I am very hopeful about this,” [Erdoğan] said.

Source: Fehim Taştekin,“Ukraine war shakes up Turkey’s ties with both Russia and NATO,” al-Monitor (globally read security news site with regionally based reporting),08 April 2022. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/04/will-renewed-interest-iraqi-kurdish-gas-fuel-turkey-iran-rivalry

Potential projects to carry Iraqi Kurdistan natural gas to Europe via Turkey, in order to reduce dependency on Russia, might also increase rivalry between Turkey and Iran.

…a potential plan to carry Iraqi Kurdish gas through Turkey with the help of Israel was one reason for Iran’s missile attack on Erbil on March 13.  

…Under an energy cooperation deal between Ankara and Iraqi Kurdistan in 2013, Turkey has already finished the pipeline linking its border with northern Iraq to a conduit which carries Azeri gas to Europe.

…

Erbil has amped up its efforts to boost its energy ties with regional actors amid escalating tensions between Russia and the Western capitals over Ukraine. Iraqi Kurdistan President Nechirvan Barzani met with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Feb. 2. Ali Hama Salih, the head of the energy commission in Kurdistan’s parliament, said Feb. 9 that the gas link to Turkey would become operational in 2025. …Most recently, [KRG Prime Minister] Masrour Barzani announced Mar 28 that Iraqi Kurdistan would “become a net exporter of gas to the rest of Iraq, Turkey and Europe in the near future and help meet their energy security needs…”

While echoing previous assertions that Israel has no involvement in the plans, Barzani also admitted that Iraqi Kurdistan’s expanding energy ties were not in line with Iranian interests…

In a similar vein, Erdogan said Turkey was gearing up for new energy projects. On his way back from Brussels, where he met with various NATO leaders, he told reporters, “God willing, through our meetings new avenues will be opened for Turkey in the energy field.” That hints at possible markets for Iraqi Kurdish and Eastern Mediterranean gas following normalization of ties with Israel. 

…But Ankara still has to find a middle ground between Erbil and Baghdad to advance its gas and oil cooperation with Iraqi Kurdistan.

Image Information:

Image: Map of the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (the central part of the Southern Gas Corridor, which connects the giant Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan to Europe through the South Caucasus Pipeline and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline.
Source: Golden, Own Work, via Wikimedia,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Trans-Anatolian_gas_pipeline.png,
Attribution: CC-BY-SA-4.0 | Self-published work | Maps by Golden

Iran Tries To Justify Abstention in UN Vote Condemning Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Iran’s UN Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi, 2 March 2022.

Iran’s UN Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi, 2 March 2022.

“The security concerns of the Russian Federation must be taken into account.”

The excerpted article from the official government media outlet Islamic Republic News Agency, explains Iran’s abstention from a United Nations resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The article cites Iran’s Ambassador to the UN Majid Takht Ravanchi, who offers a series of excuses without addressing the elephant in the room—Iran’s military, diplomatic, and financial ties to Russia.  First, he questions the UN General Assembly’s right to condemn Russia as opposed to the UN Security Council, although Iran frequently complains that the UN Security Council is archaic, benefits the United States, and is in need of “democratization” and reform.  Second, Ravanchi argues that it was hypocritical to condemn Russia for invading Ukraine but not Saudi Arabia for its actions in Yemen despite the fact that Saudi Arabia’s actions are at the invitation of the UN-recognized government in Yemen and are not part of a war of conquest.  Ravanchi’s complaints about lack of participation may also reflect frustration with a temporary ban that the UN imposed on some Iranian voting in January 2022, due to Tehran’s unpaid dues.

Ravanchi’s need to issue such a lengthy explanation is partly due to the deep unpopularity of the abstention vote inside Iran.  While the Iranian government sought to avoid antagonizing Russia, ordinary Iranians draw a parallel to their experience during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.  Iraq was the aggressor during that conflict, but most of the world nevertheless isolated Iran due to antagonism toward its revolution its and subsequent taking of hostages.  Iranians still lament what they see as a lack of justice at the time and draw parallels between their experience 40 years ago and events in Ukraine today.  They are, therefore, critical of their government’s refusal to side with Ukraine and condemn Russia.  Ravanchi probably understood he needed to explain his vote in order to quell public anger.

Source:

“Qat’anameh Mojomeh-e ‘Amumi Sazman’e Melli ‘Aliyeh Rusiyeh ba 141 ray-e Movafeq Tasvib Shod (The UN General Assembly resolution against Russia was adopted by 141 votes in favor),” Islamic Republic News Agency (official government news outlet), 2 March 2022. https://www.irna.ir/news/84668745

UN members voted in favor of the resolution, which was approved by about 80 countries, condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and calling for the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. The UN General Assembly resolution was adopted by 141 votes to 35, with five abstentions. Russia, Syria, Belarus, North Korea and Eritrea voted against the resolution. Also, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Burundi, the Central African Republic, China, Congo, Cuba, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, India, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Madagascar, Mali, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Senegal, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tajikistan, Uganda, Tanzania, Vietnam and Zimbabwe abstained….

Following the adoption of the UN General Assembly resolution on the Ukraine crisis, Iran’s representative to the UN said that the resolution submitted to the General Assembly lacks the element of neutrality and realistic mechanisms for resolving the issue through peaceful means…. He added, “The Islamic Republic is following the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine with deep concern.”

He stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran’s principled position is based on the need for a peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with international law and the need for full compliance by all parties with the supreme principles enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations and international law, including international humanitarian law. We emphasize that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries must be fully respected and the safety and security of all civilians must be guaranteed.

[Majid] Takht Ravanchi continued, “Finding a lasting and long-term solution to such crises requires addressing its roots. We note that the current complexity and fragile situation in Eastern Europe has been exacerbated by provocative actions by the United States and NATO. The security concerns of the Russian Federation must be taken into account.”

Takht Ravanchi said that the United Nations should always avoid double standards in dealing with issues related to international peace and security…. An example of this is the Security Council’s approach to the ongoing conflict in Yemen.

He continued, “We believe that the resolution presented to the General Assembly lacks the element of neutrality and realistic mechanisms for resolving the issue through peaceful means. In addition, not all members of the United Nations had the opportunity to participate in the drafting of this resolution.”

The Iranian ambassador to the United Nations continued: “It is necessary to emphasize that the General Assembly is not in a position to determine the existence of an aggressive act.” In addition to Article 39 of the Charter, UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 of 14 December 1974 delegated this to the Security Council.

The senior diplomat of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations stated, “Based on the above-mentioned reasons, the delegation of the Islamic Republic of Iran abstained from voting on the resolution contained in document.”

Image Information:

Image: Iran’s UN Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi, 2 March 2022
Source: Fars News Agency
https://media.farsnews.ir/Uploaded/Files/Images/1400/02/17/14000217000288_Test_PhotoN.jpg
Attribution:

Iran’s New Damavand Destroyer Set To Join Navy

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Iran’s previous Damavand destroyer sank after striking a breakwater at Bandar Anzali, 10 January 2018.

Iran’s previous Damavand destroyer sank after striking a breakwater at Bandar Anzali, 10 January 2018.

“The process of building naval equipment will accelerate.”

On 10 January 2018, Iran’s Damavand destroyer collided with a breakwater while docking at the Caspian port of Bandar Anzali.  While Iranian authorities initially denied the incident, local bloggers soon posted videos of the ship listing and sinking, reportedly killing at least three sailors.  In the excerpted article from the Iranian Defense Ministry’s official news source, Holy Defense News Agency, Shahram Irani, head of the Iranian Navy, announces that the Navy would soon officially launch a new destroyer to replace the Damavand.  That it has taken four years to build the new ship gives a sense of the speed of Iranian shipbuilding.  Iranian Mowj (Wave) class destroyers are equipped with anti-submarine torpedoes, an assortment of surface-to-surface missiles, surface-to-air missiles, and various naval guns and cannons.  Because the Damavand—named for Iran’s tallest mountain—operates in the landlocked Caspian Sea, its replacement needed to be built at Bandar Anzali.  Its mission is to show the flag and guard Iran’s Caspian infrastructure against Caspian littoral states—Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, all which are relatively friendly with Iran.  This suggests that the political and economic need to keep shipyards busy trump military needs when the Iranian Navy decides where to spend its money.  Given the fact that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps controls such shipbuilding, the construction and launch of a new destroyer for the uncontested Caspian Sea demonstrates how difficult meaningful economic reform in Iran will be.

Source:

“Anjam-e Testha-ye Nahaye Navshakan ‘Damavand’ (Performing Final Tests on the Damavand Destroyer),” Holy Defense News Agency (Iran’s Defense Ministry news outlet), 3 April 2022. https://defapress.ir/fa/news/511977

Admiral Shahram Irani, commander of the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy, in an interview with the defense correspondent of the Holy Defense News Agency, said with regard to the latest situation of the Damavand destroyer, “The Damavand destroyer will join the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy soon and it will be a special occasion.” He stated that the Damavand destroyer is undergoing final tests, and added, “In 2022, the process of building naval equipment will accelerate, with regard to both surface and subsurface technology.”

According to the Holy Defense News Agency, the Damavand destroyer is completely indigenous and the second warship in the Mowj [Wave] class. It is more advanced than the Jamaran [the first of the Mowj class] that joined the Northern [Caspian] fleet on 9 March 2015.

Image Information:

Image: Iran’s previous Damavand destroyer sank after striking a breakwater at Bandar Anzali, 10 January 2018.
Source: Young Journalist Club(a subsidiary of the state-controlled Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting). https://cdn.yjc.news/files/fa/news/1398/7/19/10699419_907.jpg

Iran Digs into Central Syria, Filling Vacuum Left by Russia

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“…the spread of pro-Iranian militias and the Fourth Division coincided with the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the beginning of the withdrawal of Russian forces from some military sites in eastern Homs…”

Iran and its allies are fortifying their positions in the central Syrian desert.  The accompanying article from the influential Saudi daily al-Sharq al-Awsat delves into the recent repositioning of Iranian proxies and allies in central Syria.  The article cites an early 2022 deal between the Syrian military’s 4th Division and Iran, in which they agreed to establish nearly a dozen bases throughout central Syria.  These moves coincided with Russia turning its focus to Ukraine and Iran’s recent escalation with Israel, which likely added urgency to Iranian efforts to strengthen its military position in Syria.  To that end, Iran and its allies have focused on supplying and fortifying weapons depots across central Syria.  According to the report from al-Sharq al-Awsat, Iran has provided its Syrian proxies and allies with vehicles, communications devices, and anti-tank missiles.  Russia has also given Iran and its allies control of the massive weapons depot in Mheen, in the Homs desert.  Iran recently established a new militia in Syria, drawing from its various local proxy forces, in order to guard all these weapons depots.  Pro-Iranian forces in central Syria are likely to employ unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to secure their positions.  Local outlets have reported on recent drone transfers, and in late March, Iranian forces held a UAV training session for some of their Syrian proxies.  In early April, the Iranian Arabic-language news channel al-Alam aired footage showing Iran’s proxy forces in Iraq employing Iranian Shahed-129 drones against ISIS targets, suggesting Iranian proxies in Syria would be similarly capable.

Source:

“إيران توسع انتشار ميليشياتها وسلاحها في سوريا 

(Iran expands the reach of its militias and weapons in Syria),” al-Sharq al-Awsat (influential Saudi daily), 7 April 2022. https://tinyurl.com/yp83a5pu


In a new Iranian military tactic aimed at extending Iran’s influence over the largest area of ​​Syrian territory, the Revolutionary Guards have recently strengthened… their presence in about 120 sites and military headquarters in the eastern countryside of Homs, Hama desert, Raqqa desert, and Deir ez-Zor and Aleppo governorates.  They have reinforced these sites with about 4,500 members of the militias loyal to them, and a number of missile launchers, heavy weapons, drones and communications devices. They recently took control of the strategic Mheen warehouses east of Homs, after expanding their influence in the Nairab military airport in Aleppo governorate, at the expense of the Russian and regime forces. They have also established training camps for Syrian volunteers to join militias loyal to Iran.

In the desert of Homs and eastern Hama, sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that “an agreement was reached at the beginning of 2022. Military leaders in the Fourth Division, led by Maher al-Assad, brother of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, established about 11 headquarters, headed by officers and military experts from both sides, in the areas of Hasya, Palmyra, Mahin, Al-Qaryatayn, Al-Sukhnah, Al-Kum and Al-Taybeh, east of Homs, and the Salamiyah, Al-Saan, Athria and Sheikh Hilal areas, east of Hama.

… “the spread of pro-Iranian militias and the Fourth Division coincided with the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the beginning of the withdrawal of Russian forces from some military sites in eastern Homs. This includes their recent withdrawal from the Mheen warehouses, which were handed over to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Lebanese Hezbollah”…

On March 27, Iran moved 10 Iranian Muhajir drones from its warehouses in the city of Palmyra, east of Homs, to a camp for drones that was recently established in the al-Tabani area, southwest of Deir ez-Zor. There, they established a UAV training project, imposing a security cordon around the area.

… Syrian activists said that “the IRGC recently formed a new militia called Fajr al-Islam. It is led by Iranian officers and made up of elite elements from the Afghan Fatimiyoun Brigade, the Iraqi Harakat al-Nujaba, and Lebanese Hezbollah, in addition to groups of Alawites loyal to Iran and young Syrian Shiites.” Its mission is to guard Iranian military depots in Hama, Homs, Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor, Palmyra, and Sukhnah, east of Homs

Source:

“بالفيديو..مسيرة  شاهد ١٢٩ تستهدف اوكار الدواعش في العراق

(Video… Shahed-129 drone targets ISIS hideouts in Iraq),” al-Alama (Iranian Arabic-language news channel), 9 April 2022. https://tinyurl.com/376pba2u

Video footage emerged showing members of the Popular Mobilization Forces using the Iranian Shahed-129 drone to target the hideouts of ISIS terrorist gangs in Iraq.

Turkey Tries To Mitigate Economic Impact of Sanctions on Russia

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Erdoğan and Putin at the Kremlin, 23 September 2015.

Erdoğan and Putin at the Kremlin, 23 September 2015.

“Us three countries, Russia, China and Turkey can trade among ourselves with our national currencies; with the ruble, yuan, the Turkish lira and gold.”                                                                                                                                                -Turkish President Erdoğan

The sanctions on Russia will cost the Turkish economy at least $30-35 billion, according to Turkish economists quoted in the pro-government newspaper Yenicag.com.  There will be a significant hit to Turkey’s tourism industry, an increase in energy prices and agricultural products, as well as further decline in the Turkish lira.  In an effort to mitigate this impact, Turkey appears to be trying to position itself as a safe haven from Russian sanctions.

As the accompanying passage from pro-government newspaper Hürriyet reports, in early March, Turkish President Erdoğan suggested to Putin, “Us three countries, Russia, China and Turkey can trade among ourselves with our national currencies; with the ruble, yuan, the Turkish lira and gold.”  Pro-government outlets interpreted Erdoğan’s offer as a “historic hand [being extended] to Russia, whose ties with the international system are being cut and who is being isolated.”  Others criticized this as ridiculous, claiming that the world would not accept Turkey’s effort to turn the Russian sanctions into an advantage while it endures the costs.  Regardless of the reactions to the idea, business leaders said Turkey should actively work to develop a mechanism to facilitate trade with Russia in rubles, as the passage from pro-government Daily Sabah reports. 

Economically, Russia is an important trading partner to Turkey, with over 3000 Turkish companies operating in Russia and a trading volume of over $32.5 billion annually.  Russia provides 34% of Turkey’s natural gas, is building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, and sends the greatest number of tourists to Turkey.  Russia and its banks’ exclusion from the international payment system will create challenges in Russia making its payments to Turkish contractors in Russia and to Turkish travel agents that organize tours for Russian tourists to visit Turkey. 

Politically, Turkey is a neighboring country to both Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea and has good relations with both, including a developing partnership with Ukraine, whereby Turkey sells it armed drones.  As such, Turkey has been trying to play a balancing act between Ukraine and Russia regarding Russia’s invasion.  On the one hand, Turkey acted with its NATO allies and strongly condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine, openly calls Russia’s invasion a “war,” and voted to condemn Russia in the United Nations.  President Erdoğan said that Turkey would continue to sell armed drones to Ukraine.  On the other hand, Turkey abstained from a vote to suspend Russia’s membership rights within the European Council, and announced it was not planning to impose sanctions on Russia.

Source:

“Atilla Yeşilada Türk ekonomisine düşen bombayı duyurdu (Atilla Yeşilada explains the bomb that is about to explode on the Turkish economy),” Yenicag.com.tr (pro-government newspaper), 25 February 2022. https://www.yenicaggazetesi.com.tr/atilla-yesilada-rusyaukrayna-savasi-sonrasi-turk-ekonomisine-dusen-bombayi-acikladi-514360h.htm         

Turkish Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s Association Chief Economist Gizem Öztok Altınsaç says that the geopolitical tension can have an initial cost to Turkey of about $30-35 billion.

Source: Abdülkadir Selvi, “Erdoğan, Putin’e ne önerdi? (What did Erdoğan suggest to Putin?),” Hurriyet.com (pro-government newspaper), 8 March 2022. https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/yazarlar/abdulkadir-selvi/erdogan-putine-ne-onerdi-42017962

At the AK Party Central Executive Council, President Erdoğan made important statements about the meeting he had with Putin.  He said he suggested to Putin, that “Us three countries, Russia, China and Turkey can trade among ourselves with our national currencies; with the ruble, yuan, the Turkish lira and gold.” 

…With this suggestion, Erdoğan is extending a historic hand to Russia, whose ties with the international system are being cut and who is being isolated. At the same time, he is taking steps to turn the crisis into an opportunity for Turkey.  Would Russia, who is being isolated in the world, consider the Turkey and China option?  Why not? 

Source: “Uslu: İnsanlar ayçiçek yağı ile güçlü lider arasında tercih yapabilir (Uslu: People can decide between sunflower oil and a strong leader),” Karar.com.tr (independent Turkish newspaper), 8 March 2022. https://www.karar.com/karar-tv/bikarar-ver-bugun-karar-tvde-12-1655020

Political communications expert İbrahim Uslu [said about Erdoğan’s offer to Putin]: “This is unbelievable, even if you convince Putin, once the world feels that you are intensely piercing their sanctions, they will sanction us…  As the world imposes sanctions and endures significant economic costs, they will not look favorably upon Turkey’s attempt to turn this into an opportunity, attempt to feed the entire Russian market by itself and comfortably make money from this.  Such suggestions can seem appealing trade-wise, but they should be reconsidered in light of political international relations and the alliances that Turkey belongs to.” 

Source: “Turkish businesses expect progress on using rubles in trade with Russia,” Daily Sabah (pro-government newspaper), 11 March 2022. https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/turkish-businesses-expect-progress-on-using-rubles-in-trade-with-russia

Since the currency dispute with shipping companies is causing problems in the delivery of goods passing through customs, Turkey should actively work to develop a mechanism to facilitate trade with Russia in rubles, Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) head Şekib Avdagiç said Friday.

Avdagiç stated that the companies working with Russia see the withdrawal of Western countries from Moscow as a new opportunity and emphasized that it is important to enable the use of the national currency of Russia.

Image Information:

Image: Erdoğan and Putin at the Kremlin, 23 September 2015.
Source: Kremlin.ru, via Wikimedia Commons
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Erdo%C4%9Fan_and_Putin.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0