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• Key Takeaways:
• Although the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) has historically been deeply
  rooted in northeastern Nigeria, recent patterns demonstrate that it is expanding operations
  to the more economically prosperous and majority Christian south.
• The most plausible explanations for ISWAP’s move south are to “outbid” the rival Sunni
  Muslim Group for Preaching and Jihad (JASDJ); to follow Islamic State (IS) “core” directives
  to attract attention by attacking Christians and other high-profile targets; and to divert
  the Nigerian army’s attention from the north and relieve counterterrorism pressure near
  ISWAP’s main bases.
• Beyond these heightened risks, ISWAP’s southern expansion threatens U.S. interests in
  Nigeria, Nigeria’s national security, and West African security more broadly