Author Archives: Ryan Berg

Colombia Signals Intent To Join China’s Belt and Road Initiative

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United Nations Secretary General António Guterres attends the annual Belt and Road Forum in China.

“Colombia intends to be part of the Belt and Road initiative…the mega infrastructure program with which China seeks to connect to the world and strengthen its geostrategic position…This is an unexpected diplomatic turn that has gone almost unnoticed.”

Despite headwinds in its domestic economy, China’s strategic advance in Latin America continues.[i] In 2023, Chinese foreign direct investment levels in the region remained high at more than $9 billion, which is equivalent to six percent of China’s total foreign direct investment.[ii] Now more than ten years old, China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive foreign infrastructure investment program, has proven popular throughout Latin America. In a major announcement, Spain’s top daily news outlet, El País, reports that Colombia recently signaled its intent to join BRI. The outlet reports that this was an unexpected development. While over 20 countries in the region have joined BRI, Colombia—and the region’s other largest countries, Brazil and Mexico—are currently holdouts. In a recent visit to Colombia, El País reports, President Petro praised China and raised the level of relations to “strategic partner.” Colombia’s accession to the BRI will not be immediate, according to Argentine outlet, Infobae. The country will form a working group to study how to accede to the BRI and maintain a “balanced” relationship with China.

Colombia’s accession to the BRI is an important development. Not only does it signal China’s advance with one of the United States’ oldest allies, but it also is indicative of the increasing phenomenon of hedging that medium-sized powers are undertaking in a world characterized by great power rivalry.[iii] China, Russia, Iran, and other revisionist powers have positioned themselves to be the beneficiaries of hedging strategies in Latin America.

Sources:

“Colombia anuncia que se sumará al gran plan estratégico de China, la Franja y la Ruta (Colombia announces that it will join China’s grand strategic plan, the Belt and Road),” El País (Spain’s top daily with some of Latin America’s best coverage), 3 October 2024. https://elpais.com/america-colombia/2024-10-04/colombia-anuncia-que-se-sumara-al-gran-plan-estrategico-de-china-la-nueva-ruta-de-la-seda.html

Colombia intends to be part of the Belt and Road initiative…the mega infrastructure program with which China seeks to connect to the world and strengthen its geostrategic position. This was announced by surprise by the Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jorge Rojas, an official very close to President Gustavo Petro, on the occasion of the celebration of the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China…Ambassador Zhu Jingyang immediately thanked the gesture, and assured that Beijing is willing to ‘accelerate the relevant negotiation, respecting and collaborating with the priorities and needs of Colombia.’ This is an unexpected diplomatic turn that has gone almost unnoticed.

“Colombia estrecha vínculos con China y busca sumarse a iniciativa comercial estratégica (Colombia strengthens ties with China and seeks to join strategic trade initiative),” Infobae (Argentine outlet with wide-ranging regional coverage), 13 October 2024. https://www.infobae.com/movant/2024/10/13/colombia-estrecha-vinculos-con-china-y-busca-sumarse-a-iniciativa-comercial-estrategica/    

Colombia has formed a working group with China to negotiate its incorporation into the Belt and Road Initiative, the ambitious infrastructure and trade project promoted by the Asian giant. The announcement was made during the visit of the Colombian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Luis Gilberto Murillo, to Beijing, who stressed that Colombia’s accession will take place ‘in a reasonable time.’…The Colombian minister stressed that his country is seeking balanced cooperation with China at a time when Bogotá is seeking to strengthen its independence in foreign policy and diversify its international relations…Murillo’s visit is part of a broader strategy that began with President Gustavo Petro’s trip to China in October 2023, when both countries agreed to elevate their relations to a strategic partnership, signing a series of agreements to deepen cooperation in key sectors such as the economy, science, and education…Although Colombia’s official accession to the BRI is still in process, Chinese investments already play a relevant role in the development of the country’s infrastructure.

Notes:

[i] The Council on Foreign Relations think tank maintains an updated document on major developments in the relationship between Latin America and China. See: “China’s Growing Influence in Latin America,” Council on Foreign Relations, last updated 10 January 2025. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-influence-latin-america-argentina-brazil-venezuela-security-energy-bri

[ii] For more information on China’s foreign direct investment activities, see the work of Enrique Dussel Peters: “Monitor of Chinese OFDI in Latin America and the Caribbean 2024,” 13 May 2024. https://docs.redalc-china.org/monitor/images/pdfs/menuprincipal/DusselPeters_MonitorOFDI_2024_Eng.pdf

[iii] Matias Spektor has an excellent article on the phenomenon of hedging among medium-sized powers. See: Matias Spektor, “In Defense of Fence Sitters,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2023. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/global-south-defense-fence-sitters

Image Information:

Image: United Nations Secretary General António Guterres attends the annual Belt and Road Forum in China.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/35138985312.    
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Venezuela’s Maduro Completes Election Theft and Installs Himself for Another Term

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In an earlier photo, Maduro swears in for his second six-year term in office, which began in 2019.

“Among the only leaders who accompanied Maduro on his day were Commander Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua and the heir to Castroism, Miguel Díaz-Canel of Cuba…Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the Duma, was the one Putin asked to travel to Caracas.”

In early January 2025, President Nicolás Maduro took the oath of office for another six-year term, setting him up to govern Venezuela for longer than his political mentor, Hugo Chávez. The inauguration, occurring in a tense climate of military deployments throughout major cities, was a product of what many experts consider the regime’s most brazen election theft. Unlike previous elections, Venezuela’s opposition possesses vote tallies from electronic voting machines proving Maduro lost by a ratio of more than 2:1.[i] Spain’s top daily, El País, reports that the inauguration was a poorly attended affair. Presidents Díaz-Canel from Cuba and Daniel Ortega from Nicaragua, leftist allies of Maduro, were the only heads of state from Latin America to attend. In a show of support, Russian President Vladimir Putin did send the head of the lower house, Vyacheslav Volodin.[ii]

Maduro’s inauguration for a third term is important for the region’s operational environment for several reasons.[iii] First, despite Maduro’s highly authoritarian regime, the brazen nature of the electoral theft, against transparent proof that he lost the election, indicates the regime may no longer care to have a semblance of democracy undergirding claims of legitimacy. Second, after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Russia’s authoritarian allies have been nervous about continued support from Moscow. The attendance of lower house speaker Vyacheslav Volodin was notable for Putin to demonstrate support for Maduro in the wake of letting Syria fall. Maintaining the Maduro regime in Venezuela is key for Putin in a region where Russia has few natural allies.

Sources:

“Solo los presidentes latinoamericanos de Cuba y de Nicaragua asisten a la toma de posesión de Maduro (Only the Latin American presidents of Cuba and Nicaragua attend Maduro’s inauguration), El País (Spain’s top daily with some of Latin America’s best coverage), 10 January 2025. https://elpais.com/america-colombia/2025-01-10/solo-los-presidentes-latinoamericanos-de-cuba-y-de-nicaragua-asisten-a-la-toma-de-posesion-de-maduro.html 

Venezuela under Nicolás Maduro is said to be increasingly isolated, but the country’s president did not seem worried about it on Friday during his inauguration in the National Assembly…The number of 125 was somewhat misleading, because not all those present at Maduro’s proclamation were diplomatic officials, and very few were heads of state or foreign ministers. Among the only leaders who accompanied Maduro on his day were Commander Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua and the heir to Castroism, Miguel Díaz-Canel of Cuba…Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the Duma, was the one Putin asked to travel to Caracas…Much of Latin America’s democratic left, however, was absent.

Notes:

[i] For more on the Maduro regime’s election theft, see: Ryan C. Berg and Christopher Hernandez-Roy, “Can Maduro Pull Off the Mother of All Electoral Frauds?,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 August 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-maduro-pull-mother-all-electoral-frauds

[ii] For more information on the opposition’s claims to victory and their plans to inaugurate Edmundo González, see: Stefano Pozzebon, “Fear on the streets of Caracas as Maduro’s inauguration looms,” CNN.com, 9 January 2025. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/09/americas/venezuela-protests-maduro-inauguration-intl-latam/index.html

[iii] For more information on regional insecurity generated by the Maduro regime, see: Ryan C. Berg, “Maduro’s Venezuela Continues Its Campaign of Regional Destabilization,” OE Watch, April 2021. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/383027

Image Information:

Image: In an earlier photo, Maduro swears in for his second six-year term in office, which began in 2019.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Maduro_with_supportes_at_Jan_2019_inauguration.jpg.   
Attribution: CC0 1.0 Universal

Maduro Shakes Up Top Security Posts in Venezuela Following Disputed Election

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Nicolas Maduro casts his vote in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election.

“These adjustments occur amid repeated attempts by the opposition to force the Armed Forces to ‘respect’ the results of the elections of July 28, after which the Chavista leader was proclaimed reelected amid allegations of fraud.”

In the aftermath of a deeply contested election, the Maduro regime in Venezuela has undertaken a major reorganization of security positions to consolidate control around the dictator.  

The Maduro regime in Venezuela confronted its toughest challenge yet in July 2024 as it faced a united opposition and a singular candidate in Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia. By most accounts, Maduro did not count the actual votes—which he likely lost by a ratio of more than 2:1—and declared himself the winner through his control of the country’s National Electoral Council.[i] Following the disputed election, the Maduro regime has engaged in a massive campaign of repression, imprisoning thousands.[ii] As reported in the excerpted article from major Spanish daily El País, Maduro has also fired several high-level regime insiders, part of his effort to solidify control. The article reports that Maduro has selected a new head of civilian and military intelligence and that he also fired several high-level generals considered close to the ruling elite.

The excerpted article from Colombian digital outlet NTN24 reports that Alexis Rodriguez Cabello, nephew of regime insider and recently promoted Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, has assumed the role of intelligence chief. The NTN24 article also reports that among other firings and personnel shuffling, the regime reconfirmed Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez to his current position. Lopez has been a loyal regime insider for more than a decade.

The shuffle within the upper ranks of the security forces is an important development for Venezuela’s operational environment. Following the election, which the opposition challenged by uploading to an online platform the polling place tally sheets showing Maduro’s electoral drubbing, Maduro is closing ranks around his regime. In these efforts, we are likely to see further purges and infighting as Maduro seeks to prevent Venezuela’s opposition from exacerbating fractures within the regime. It is highly noteworthy that Maduro has confirmed faith in the current defense minister.

Sources:

“Maduro cambia a sus altos cargos de inteligencia acusados de violaciones a los derechos humanos (Maduro replaces top intelligence officials accused of human rights violations),” El País (the Spanish newspaper of record with excellent regional coverage), 15 October 2024. https://elpais.com/america/2024-10-15/maduro-cambia-a-sus-altos-cargos-de-inteligencia-acusados-de-violaciones-a-los-derechos-humanos.html 

‘I ordered changes to be made to the Higher General Staff of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces,’ Maduro said in a message on Telegram that he accompanied with a video during a visit to the Military Academy where he reported on the appointments. ‘These changes serve to strengthen cohesion, organization, discipline, and Venezuela’s ability to defend itself.’…These adjustments occur amid repeated attempts by the opposition to force the Armed Forces to ‘respect’ the results of the elections of July 28, after which the Chavista leader was proclaimed reelected amid allegations of fraud… Maduro’s government lacks legitimacy after the presidential elections in July and its stability is fundamentally supported by its ironclad control of the military forces.

“Maduro hizo cambios en la Fuerza Armada, ratificó a Padrino y designó a nuevos jefes de la DGCIM y el Sebin (Maduro made changes in the Armed Forces, ratified Padrino and appointed new heads of the DGCIM and the Sebin),” NTN24 (a Colombian digital news outlet with excellent regional coverage), 14 October 2024. https://www.ntn24.com/noticias-politica/maduro-hizo-cambios-en-la-fuerza-armada-ratifico-a-padrino-y-designo-a-nuevos-jefes-de-la-dgcim-y-el-sebin-518953   

On Monday, October 14, Nicolás Maduro ordered changes in the Higher General Staff of the National Armed Forces, however he kept his Minister of Defense, Vladimir Padrino López. General Domingo Antonio Hernández Larez will also remain in his current position as head of the Strategic Operational Command. The brother of the head of CEOFANB, Johan Alexander Hernández Larez, is appointed General Command of the Army…At the head of the General Directorate of Military Counterintelligence (DGCIM) and the Presidential Honor Guard (GHP), Major General Javier Marcano Tábata has been appointed. Major General Alexis Rodríguez Cabello heads the Bolivarian National Intelligence Service (SEBIN).

Notes:

[i] For more information on the brazen election theft that occurred in Venezuela in July 2024, see: Ryan C. Berg and Christopher Hernandez-Roy, “Can Maduro Pull Off the Mother of All Electoral Frauds?,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 August 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-maduro-pull-mother-all-electoral-frauds

[ii] For more information on the post-electoral crackdown, see: Ryan C. Berg and Christopher Hernandez-Roy, “A Question of Staying Power: Is the Maduro Regime’s Repression Sustainable?,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 21 August 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/question-staying-power-maduro-regimes-repression-sustainable

Image Information:

Image: Nicolas Maduro casts his vote in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election.
Source: https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nicol%C3%A1s_Maduro_casting_his_vote_%282024%29.png?uselang=de%7Chttps://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nicol%C3%A1s_Maduro_casting_his_vote_%282024%29.png.   
Attribution: CC BY 3.0

Latin America’s Dictators Scramble To Join BRICS

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The principal members of the BRICS grouping pose for a photo at the 2018 BRICS Summit.

“Venezuela was left out of the final list of countries that aspired to be partners, at the request of Brazil…Venezuela has not commented on Brazil’s refusal to allow it to join the bloc.”

In recent years, the BRICS grouping—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has emerged as a major challenger to the Western-supported international order.[i] Led by major emerging market economies on five continents, BRICS has increased its influence over matters of global financial governance, reform of multilateral institutions, and support of a Global South agenda. The group has also pushed to expand its ranks and influence, with five countries from the Middle East and the Horn of Africa joining in 2023. At least three Latin American countries, Venezuela, Cuba, and Bolivia, sought entrance to the organization at the 2024 BRICS Summit, held in Kazan, Russia.[ii]

As CNN en Español notes, the regional outlet of the U.S. media company, the Maduro regime in Venezuela has pushed the hardest to gain entry. The outlet reports that Maduro traveled to Kazan, Russia, to press his country’s case and meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. As the Colombian digital news outlet NTN24 relays, this was Maduro’s first international trip after elections widely considered to be fraudulent and stolen in Venezuela.[iii] Maduro’s intention, the outlet states, is to establish diplomatic partnerships to reduce his international isolation and secure economic lifelines to avoid increasing sanctions. Both outlets report that Brazil vetoed Venezuela’s membership over concerns related to its election conduct in July 2024. For their parts, Bolivia and Cuba, two other autocratic regimes in Latin America, secured “partner status” on their way to membership in the BRICS.

This development signals that dictatorships in Latin America see the BRICS grouping as an economic and political lifeline amid difficult economic and diplomatic moments. Relatedly, the inclusion of a greater number of Latin American countries in BRICS will bring China and Russia further into the Western Hemisphere, where both have been increasing their influence of late.

Sources:

“Maduro se reúne con Putin durante cumbre de los BRICS en Rusia (Maduro meets Putin during BRICS summit in Russia), CNN en Español (the regional outlet of the US network), 23 October 2024. https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2024/10/23/reunion-maduro-putin-cumbre-brics-orix

Putin, who is chairing the meeting, said he supported Venezuela’s aspiration to join the group of emerging economies. The Russian president also highlighted that both nations have several projects to cooperate in economics, politics, science and culture, among other issues. The group, which began with Russia, Brazil, China, India and South Africa, recently included Iran, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Venezuela was left out of the final list of countries that aspired to be partners, at the request of Brazil…Venezuela has not commented on Brazil’s refusal to allow it to join the bloc.

“Maduro llega a Rusia para solicitar sumarse al BRICS en su primer viaje después de las elecciones (Maduro arrives in Russia to request to join BRICS on his first trip after the elections),” NTN24 (a Colombian digital news outlet with excellent regional coverage), 22 October 2024. https://www.ntn24.com/noticias-politica/maduro-llega-a-rusia-para-solicitar-sumarse-al-brics-en-su-primer-viaje-despues-de-las-elecciones-520339  

Maduro’s visit is for the BRICS meeting, in which around twenty countries, including Venezuela, are asking to join the bloc in order to boost their economies. Maduro is traveling on the same day that marks one year since the primary elections that sparked an unprecedented citizen movement to elect the opposition candidate to face Maduro in the presidential election…One of the countries that has demanded that Maduro show the minutes and respect the will of the people [after another fraudulent election] is the president of Brazil, Luis Inacio Lula Da Silva, who is part of the BRICS and said a day earlier that he would refuse to include Venezuela in the BRICS due to what happened in the elections.

Notes:

[i] For more information about the BRICS grouping and its recent efforts at expansion, see: Mariel Ferragamo, “What is the BRICS Group and Why is it Expanding?,” Council on Foreign Relations, 18 October 2024. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-brics-group-and-why-it-expanding

[ii] For more analysis on Latin America’s dictatorships seeking entrance into the BRICS, see: Ryan C. Berg, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Rubi Bledsoe, and Henry Ziemer, “Why Are Latin American Dictators Seeking Membership in BRICS+?,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, 28 October 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-are-latin-american-dictators-seeking-membership-brics

[iii] For more information on Venezuela’s July 2024 elections, see: Ryan C. Berg and Christopher Hernandez-Roy, “Can Maduro Pull Off the Mother of All Electoral Frauds?,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, 1 August 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-maduro-pull-mother-all-electoral-frauds

Image Information:

Image: The principal members of the BRICS grouping pose for a photo at the 2018 BRICS Summit.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Brics_Leaders_2016.jpg.  
Attribution: CC BY 2.0

Mexico’s Sheinbaum Launches Plan To Address Security Crisis

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Journalists protest rising violence in Mexico.

“During López Obrador’s six-year term, crime claimed a record number of more than 190,000 lives, but the new president has ruled out confronting violence with more violence.”

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power in October in the middle of a full-blown security crisis. In just a few weeks, the State of Sinaloa has witnessed hundreds of deaths at the hands of warring factions within the Sinaloa Cartel.[i] Several public officials were assassinated, in one case—the mayor of Chilpancingo, the capital of Guerrero State—within a week of assuming office. Therefore, Sheinbaum presented her new security plan for Mexico at a critical moment. The excerpted article from left-center Argentine daily Página 12 emphasizes the continuity of Sheinbaum’s plan with that of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s, security plan, dubbed “hugs, not bullets.” The article characterizes López Obrador as seeking to attack crime at its social roots. However, there will also be some innovations in Sheinbaum’s security plan. The Página 12 article reports that Sheinbaum will concentrate security efforts on the top ten most violent cities in Mexico. The second excerpted article from Mexican business-focused daily El Economista notes that almost half of all homicides occur in six districts in Mexico. In these districts, the fight for territorial control between the two largest cartels, Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation, is most intense.

The success or failure of Sheinbaum’s security plan will have significant implications for the operational environment. Given their importance in the illicit drug and human smuggling routes, Mexico’s criminal cartels operate transnationally and drive much of Latin America’s criminal dynamics. A successful security plan in Mexico may have salutary effects for other countries, such as Ecuador, which are suffering from the expansion efforts of Mexican criminal organizations throughout Latin America.[ii]

Sources:

“Sheinbaum presentó su nuevo plan de seguridad (Sheinbaum presented her new security plan),” Página 12 (an Argentine daily known for a leftist bent), 9 October 2024. https://www.pagina12.com.ar/773339-sheinbaum-presento-su-nuevo-plan-de-seguridad

The former mayor of the federal district, who took office on October 1, pledged to maintain the strategy of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who chose to employ a series of social policies to attack crime at its roots during his term…In her proposal, Sheinbaum projects what she calls a ‘100-day security strategy,’ according to which national security would focus on the 10 most dangerous cities and states in the country…During López Obrador’s six-year term, crime claimed a record number of more than 190,000 lives, but the new president has ruled out confronting violence with more violence…‘What are we going to use? Prevention, attention to the causes, intelligence and presence,’ she said.

“Sheinbaum presenta su plan de seguridad que busca abatir la espiral de violencia de otros sexenios (Sheinbaum presents her security plan that seeks to reduce the spiral of violence of other six-year terms),” El Economista (a Mexican daily focused on business and economy), 8 October 2024. https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/sheinbaum-presenta-plan-seguridad-busca-abatir-espiral-violencia-otros-sexenios-20241008-729110.html 

The president will launch her strategy after the mayor of Chilpancingo, the capital of the state of Guerrero, one of the six districts of the country that account for almost half of all homicides, was beheaded last Sunday, a few days after taking office. Violence in Mexico is concentrated in strategic points (drug routes, borders, ports of entry for Chinese fentanyl components, and avocado and lemon producing regions). In these areas, the two main cartels in the country, the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG), operate and fight each other…Sheinbaum has only been in office for a week and the violence is relentless: the decapitation of the mayor of Chilpancingo, the discovery of 12 bodies in the state of Guanajuato, and some 150 people killed in three weeks in the state of Sinaloa.

Notes:

[i] For more on the internecine fighting within the Sinaloa Cartel, see: Christine Murray, “US Arrests Spark Cartel ‘War’ in Northern Mexico: ‘Like a Narco Pandemic,’” Financial Times, 28 September 2024. https://www.ft.com/content/0f883ce4-c922-48a7-b9e8-7793fccbf0c9

[ii] For more information on the presence of Mexico’s criminal organizations in Ecuador, see: Ryan Berg, “Why Ecuador’s Security Crisis Demands Global Action,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 July 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-ecuadors-security-crisis-demands-global-action

Image Information:

Image: Journalists protest rising violence in Mexico.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/knightfoundation/5569178904. 
Attribution: CC BY-SA 2.0

China To Cement Strategic Relationship With Peru

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The site of the Chancay Port before China’s megaport project; Chancay is a small fishing hamlet north of Lima, Peru.

“We are convinced that the port will become a strong driver for Peru’s economic development and a model for economic and commercial cooperation.”

China has long held a special interest in Peru, both for its critical mineral endowments and its position in the Pacific. Peru was the first Latin American country to sign a free trade agreement with China and is one of the largest destinations for Chinese investment in Latin America.[i] To further cement its influence and commercial ties, China is constructing a megaport at Chancay, one of its largest and most comprehensive in the Americas, to increase its access to critical minerals and the bountiful harvest of soy, wheat, and other agricultural products from Latin America.[ii] State-owned Cosco Shipping will own and operate the port, giving China outsized control over port operations.[iii]

According to the first excerpted article from the digital outlet Energiminas, once operational, the Chancay port will shorten the main route to Asia by 10 days. The second article from the Peruvian outlet Gestión, notes that Xi Jinping will inaugurate the port later this year at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit and that the Chinese delegation promises to include 750 Chinese investors visiting alongside President Xi. The outlet conveys Peru’s hope that Chancay will catalyze further Chinese investments in sectors such as telecommunications and electric vehicles. Earlier in the summer, China hosted Peruvian President Dina Boluarte for a state visit, where, according to the Gestión Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged support for elevating relations with Peru to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

The strategic implications of the Chancay megaport’s inauguration as Peru hosts the APEC Summit this year are significant. Most importantly, these actions demonstrate China’s march to gain influence in Latin America, where it already maintains several dozen agreements to own, operate, or upgrade port facilities. More importantly, many of these ports are deep water and feature docks with wide berths sufficient for the People’s Liberation Army Navy to make port calls for refueling and logistics.

Sources:

“Cosco Shipping espera inaugurar megapuerto de Chancay en noviembre (Cosco Shipping expects to open Chancay megaport in November),” Energiminas (a digital platform focused on energy and mining), 27 June 2024. https://energiminas.com/2024/06/27/cosco-shipping-espera-inaugurar-megapuerto-de-chancay-en-noviembre/

The president emphasized that the Chancay megaport will be inaugurated in November, with the presence of the President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping. She (Xi) indicated that, to strengthen this work, the implementation of the Ancón industrial zone is planned near the port. ‘Hopefully, an electric vehicle assembly plant can be installed there, it is in the interest of both Peru and China to take care of the environment. In our country we also have copper and lithium,’ she (Xi) said…For his part, Wan Min, president of Cosco Shipping, said…‘We are convinced that the port will become a strong driver for Peru’s economic development and a model for economic and commercial cooperation. Once its construction is completed, Chancay will become the most modern and intelligent port in South America.’

“Perú buscará capitalizar la llegada de inversores chinos y coreanos en la APEC 2024 (Peru will seek to capitalize on the arrival of Chinese and Korean investors at APEC 2024),” Gestión (a Peruvian daily focused on business and economics), 15 August 2024. https://gestion.pe/economia/apec-2024-peru-busca-capitalizar-la-llegada-de-empresarios-chinos-y-coreanos-al-foro-de-cooperacion-economica-asia-pacifico-voices-of-the-future-noticia/

The upcoming APEC Economic Leaders week, which will take place in November in Peru, will not only bring together heads of state and senior officials from the 21 member economies of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum. The arrival of a significant delegation of businessmen is also anticipated, with the participation of up to 750 investors from China…It should be noted that Peru has, to date, trade agreements with 14 of the 21 economies that are members of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation.

Notes:

[i] For more information on investment flows from China to Latin America, see: Inter-American Dialogue, “China-Latin America Finance Databases,” accessed 13 October 2024. https://www.thedialogue.org/map_list/

[ii] For additional coverage of the various phases of Chancay’s development, see: Ryan Berg, “China Nears Completion of Large Port in Peru with Dual-use Capabilities,” OE Watch, 01-2024. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/2024/china-nears-completion-of-large-port-in-peru-with-dual-use-capabilities/

[iii] For more information on the state of Chancay and the concerns about this megaport project, see: Henry Ziemer, “The Geopolitics of Port Security in the Americas,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 23 September 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/geopolitics-port-security-americas

Image Information:

Image: The site of the Chancay Port before China’s megaport project; Chancay is a small fishing hamlet north of Lima, Peru.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/marirc19/8284806040.
Attribution: CC BY-NA-SA 2.0

Cartel Internecine Warfare Erupts in the State of Sinaloa

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Mugshot of Sinaloa Cartel leader, Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera, one of the most wanted men in the world, extradited to the United States in 2016.

“President Andrés Manuel López Obrador called on the criminal groups—Mayos and Chapitos—that are facing the attack to act “with a minimum of responsibility.”

The state of Sinaloa, along Mexico’s Pacific coast, is synonymous with cartels and home to one of the most notorious transnational criminal groups in the country.[i] Following the arrest of longtime cartel kingpin, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada García, at the U.S. southern border, violence has broken out between two opposing factions of the Sinaloa Cartel.[ii] Anticipating further violence between the two major factions, one controlled by the children of former Sinaloa Cartel leader Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera and the other by those loyal to El Chapo’s former business associate, El Mayo, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador pleaded with the cartel to “act with a minimum of responsibility,” according to the excerpted article from right-leaning Mexican daily El Universal. The newspaper reports that the Mexican government is downplaying the number of deaths in Sinaloa; however, the violence has escalated rapidly, triggering the cancellation of Mexico’s Independence Day celebrations in the state of Sinaloa.

Argentine news outlet Infobae reports that at least 18 people have reportedly died in a wave of violence that includes roadblocks, the destruction of public infrastructure, and the closure of businesses. The escalating turf war between the two factions of the Sinaloa Cartel has significant ramifications for the operational environment. First, incoming president Claudia Sheinbaum will likely start her term on 1 October with an escalating security crisis in the Sinaloa state. Second, whichever faction emerges victorious in this internecine battle will have more consolidated control over Mexico’s criminal landscape and lucrative routes to traffic, among other things, fentanyl to the United States.

Sources:

“AMLO llama a grupos criminales que se enfrentan en Sinaloa a actuar ‘con un mínimo de responsabilidad’ (AMLO calls on criminal groups fighting in Sinaloa to act ‘with a minimum of responsibility’),” El Universal (right-leaning Mexican daily), 13 September 2024. https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/amlo-llama-a-grupos-criminales-que-se-enfrentan-en-sinaloa-a-actuar-con-un-minimo-de-responsabilidad/

After four days of violence in Culiacán, Sinaloa, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador called on the criminal groups—Mayos and Chapitos—that are facing the attack to act ‘with a minimum of responsibility.’ He said, ‘With the presence of the Armed Forces to ensure that there is no confrontation, to protect the population, they must also act with a minimum of responsibility. It is their family, their fellow countrymen, their municipality, their state and their country.’ At a press conference, the President considered that the violence in Culiacán so far ‘is not a major issue.’…Out of prudence, the Independence Day celebrations in Culiacán were cancelled.

Source: “Al menos 18 muertes en una nueva ola de violencia en Sinaloa (México) (At least 18 dead in a new wave of violence in Sinaloa (Mexico)),” Infobae (Argentine outlet with excellent regional coverage), 15 September 2024. https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2024/09/15/al-menos-18-muertes-en-una-nueva-ola-de-violencia-en-sinaloa-mexico/   

During the second week of September, 18 homicides, 36 carjackings and 28 reports of deprivation of liberty have been recorded, in an escalation of violence carried out by criminal groups in the Mexican state of Sinaloa, according to authorities…Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya has acknowledged the seriousness of the situation and has attributed these clashes to disputes between factions of the Sinaloa Cartel, specifically between Los Chapitos and Los Mayos.

Notes:

[i] For an updated profile of the Sinaloa Cartel and its activities, see: Insight Crime, “Sinaloa Cartel,” last updated 15 March 2024. https://insightcrime.org/mexico-organized-crime-news/sinaloa-cartel-profile/

[ii] The story of El Mayo’s arrival at the U.S. southern border is long and still not fully known, but for a comprehensive background on what may have transpired, see: José de Córdoba, “Betrayal and Capture of Sinaloa Cartel Leaders Spark Fears of Turf War,” The Wall Street Journal, 12 August 2024. https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/betrayal-and-capture-of-sinaloa-cartel-leaders-spark-fears-of-turf-war-d1a805f8

Image Information:

Image: Mugshot of Sinaloa Cartel leader, Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera, one of the most wanted men in the world, extradited to the United States in 2016.
Source: https://picryl.com/media/booking-photo-of-joaquin-el-chapo-guzman-front-873b60

Electoral Fraud in Venezuela Assists Axis of Authoritarians

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Venezuela’s National Electoral Council, which announced fabricated numbers on election night.

‘The governments of China, Russia, and Iran, close to the regime of Nicolás Maduro and with major economic and military interests in Venezuela, congratulated the Venezuelan dictator for the electoral victory that he has claimed for himself amid accusations of fraud.”

Venezuela’s recent presidential election has been the subject of significant criticism from election observers and the international community.[i] In addition to the electoral irregularities and uneven playing field before election day, the Maduro regime delayed the announcement of election results due to an alleged cyber-attack from North Macedonia. When the regime’s National Electoral Council, an institution it firmly controls, eventually announced the results, voters immediately knew the numbers were fabricated.[ii] The first excerpted article from Excelsior, Mexico’s second-oldest daily newspaper, reports that much of Latin America sees the situation similarly, and many countries have decided to withhold their recognition of the election results until the National Electoral Council shows the vote tallies proving Maduro’s win. Thus far, the outlet reports, the regime has provided incredible excuses for why it cannot provide them—first, the purported cyber-attack, followed by the claim of a hack by Elon Musk.[iii] In response, the outlet says Maduro decided to break diplomatic relations with seven Latin American countries that criticized Venezuela’s electoral process and lack of transparency.

Contrary to much of Latin America’s criticism, Venezuela’s authoritarian allies were quick to recognize Maduro’s victory. The second excerpted article from Argentine media outlet Infobae, recounts how China, Russia, and Iran immediately recognized Maduro’s “victory” given the importance of their alliance. Russia, the outlet states, went beyond recognition and pledged further military support for Caracas. Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Honduras have also recognized Maduro’s claim of victory.

Maduro’s inability to produce vote tabulations proving his victory will further isolate him from the West and send him deeper into the arms of his fellow authoritarians. This is notable given the months preceding the election featured regional diplomatic engagement to keep the elections on track. Conversely, China, Russia, and Iran have an interest in keeping Maduro in power because his regime thumbs its nose at the United States and continues to provide them with a strong foothold in Latin America.

Sources:

“Venezuela rompe relaciones diplomáticas con 7 países latinoamericanos (Venezuela breaks diplomatic relations with 7 Latin American countries),” Excelsior (Mexico’s second-oldest daily newspaper), 29 July 2024. https://www.excelsior.com.mx/global/venezuela-maduro-rompe-relaciones-diplomaticas-siete-paises-latinoamericanos/1665230 

Venezuela decided…to withdraw all its diplomatic personnel from its missions in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Panama, the Dominican Republic and Uruguay, hours after these countries demanded ‘a complete review of the results’ of the elections with the presence of independent observers…The result sparked a wave of protests in Venezuelan territory and condemnation, as well as calls for transparency from the international community. In response to the request of Latin American countries, the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry said it decided to ‘withdraw all diplomatic personnel from the missions in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Panama, the Dominican Republic, and Uruguay, while demanding that those governments immediately withdraw their representatives from Venezuelan territory.’

“China, Rusia e Irán felicitaron a Nicolás Maduro tras el fraude electoral en Venezuela (China, Russia and Iran congratulate Nicolas Maduro after electoral fraud in Venezuela),” Infobae (an Argentine outlet with excellent regional coverage), 29 July 2024. https://www.infobae.com/venezuela/2024/07/29/china-rusia-e-iran-felicitaron-a-nicolas-maduro-tras-el-fraude-electoral-en-venezuela/ 

The governments of China, Russia, and Iran, close to the regime of Nicolás Maduro and with major economic and military interests in Venezuela, congratulated the Venezuelan dictator for the electoral victory that he has claimed for himself amid accusations of fraud…Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at his daily press conference that Moscow intends to continue deepening cooperation with Caracas in all areas, including ‘sensitive’ ones, such as military-technical cooperation. In Latin America, the governments of Cuba, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Bolivia, which are all sympathetic to the Chavista regime,also spoke in favor of Maduro.

Notes:

[i] For more information on the fraud and how it was committed, see: Ryan C. Berg and Christopher Hernandez-Roy, “Can Maduro Pull Off the Mother of All Electoral Frauds,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, 1 August 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-maduro-pull-mother-all-electoral-frauds

[ii] Writing in the Wall Street Journal, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado details how the opposition mobilized a volunteer network to collect electronic voting tabulations from voting machines, giving them proof of Maduro’s fraud. See: “I Can Prove Maduro Got Trounced,” Wall Street Journal, 1 August 2024. https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-can-prove-maduro-got-trounced-venezuela-election-stolen-772d66a0

[iii] After a highly public back-and-forth with Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter), Maduro blocked access to X in Venezuela for an initial period of 10 days. See: Vivian Sequera and Mayela Armas, “Venezuela’s Maduro blocks X access in country for 10 days,” Reuters, 9 August 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelas-maduro-signs-decree-blocking-x-access-10-days-2024-08-08/

Image Information:

Image: Venezuela’s National Electoral Council, which announced fabricated numbers on election night.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Consejo_Nacional_Electoral_Cne_Fachada_Posterior.JPG.      
Attribution: CC BY-SA 3.0.

Criminal Organizations Mar Mexican Elections

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Claudia Sheinbaum, former Mexico City mayor, won a resounding victory in the elections and will be the next president of Mexico.

“Without a doubt, this is a weakening of democracy because citizens are afraid to go out to vote, or they do not see the point in going out to vote, if it seems that crime is dominating, who defines who can be a candidate, who does campaign.”

Summary: Recently completed elections in Mexico, the largest in the country’s history, were also the most violent in its history. Election-related violence portends greater control of criminal organizations over politics.

Mexico’s 2 June elections were highly anticipated, and the results closely watched. It was the largest election in Mexico’s history, with more than 20,000 seats contested at local, state, and federal levels.[i] While coverage of the election tended to focus on breaking the glass ceiling—both major candidates were women, a first in a country known for “machismo”—the elections were also marred by intense violence, assassinations, and kidnappings.[ii]

The business-focused Mexican daily El Economista, reported that as the campaign closed, more than 30 candidates for public office, and approximately 50 people close to candidates or working for candidates, had been assassinated during the campaign season—the most violent campaign season on record. There were also countless attacks, threats, and intimidation against family members and friends of candidates, and hundreds more were murdered at campaign events, the outlet states. Further, the newspaper relays that most of the victims were candidates for local office, where organized crime groups seek to control public officials. 272 separate attacks were recorded during the campaign season, many of them in central and southern Mexican states afflicted by violence and contestation between criminal groups. Spanish international news agency EFE, says that election violence dampens democratic enthusiasm and participation. The outlet cites a datapoint of note: each assassination can reduce participation rates by up to 3 percent in a locality. EFE also reports that at least 168 polling stations around the country did not operate due to violence and security concerns.

Election-related violence also indicates the changing model of territorial control most criminal organizations seek to implement. Criminal organizations have taken to assassinating political opponents and candidates they deem as too independent.[iii] And, rather than corrupting sitting politicians, criminal groups seek to install their candidates in the most important local offices. Mexico’s election-related violence demonstrates the country’s slide into greater insecurity has grave consequences for the operational environment.

Sources:

“Los mexicanos salen a votar en las elecciones más grandes de la historia y también las más violentas (Mexicans go out to vote in the largest elections in history and also the most violent),” El Economista (a Mexican daily mostly focused on business and finance), 2 June 2024. https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Los-mexicanos-salen-a-votar-en-las-Elecciones-mas-grandes-de-la-historia-y-tambien-las-mas-violentas-20240602-0003.html

Since the political campaigns began, 30 candidates for public office and nearly 50 leaders or sympathizers related to the electoral process have been murdered…The elections, in which just over 20,000 public positions will be elected…are being held under the shadow of violence that has left a record of murdered candidates, fueling concerns about democracy in the country…The fatalities are mostly aspirants, pre-candidates, or candidates for municipal positions.

“Las elecciones más grandes de México también pasarán a la historia como las más violentas (Mexico’s biggest elections will also go down in history as the most violent),” EFE (a Spanish international news agency with regional coverage), 2 June 2024. https://efe.com/mundo/2024-06-02/las-elecciones-mas-grandes-de-mexico-tambien-pasaran-a-la-historia-como-las-mas-violentas/ The largest election in Mexico will also go down in history this Sunday as the most violent…Integralia, a political consultancy, reported 150.5% more attacks in this electoral process, which officially began in September, compared to the last midterm elections in 2021, which includes murders, armed attacks, threats, kidnappings and disappearances…When analyzing previous elections, Data Cívica found that for each attack on a candidate, participation in the locality in question drops 1.3%, and if the victim is a serving politician, such as the mayor, the drop is 3%…‘Without a doubt, this is a weakening of democracy because citizens are afraid to go out to vote, or they do not see the point in going out to vote, if it seems that crime is dominating, who defines who can be a candidate, who does campaign.’

Notes:

[i] For more information on the election at a granular level, see: “Mexico Elects: Ongoing Coverage of the 2024 Race,” Americas Society/Council of the Americas. https://www.as-coa.org/articles/mexico-elects-ongoing-coverage-2024-vote

[ii] For more information on the election results and the dominant performance of the ruling Morena Party, see: Ryan C. Berg and Rubi Bledsoe, “Claudia Sheinbaum: the Most Powerful Woman in the World?,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, 7 June 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/claudia-sheinbaum-most-powerful-woman-world

[iii] To listen to more analysis on the cartels’ changing operational methods and its relationship to election violence, see: Ryan C. Berg, “The Long Shadow of Violence in Mexico’s Elections,” 35West Podcast, Center for Strategic & International Studies, 13 June 2024. https://www.csis.org/podcasts/35-west/long-shadow-violence-mexicos-elections

Image Information:

Image: Claudia Sheinbaum, former Mexico City mayor, won a resounding victory in the elections and will be the next president of Mexico.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/eneas/53678721694/.     
Attribution: CC BY 2.0

Russia Demonstrating Power Projection Capabilities With Havana Port Call

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An Admiral Gorshkov class frigate at sea was part of the five Russian warships that paid a port of call to Cuba in June 2024.

“Cuba is Russia’s most important partner in the Western Hemisphere from a purely geopolitical and geostrategic point of view.”

Summary: The Russian government has sent a flotilla of three warships and one nuclear-powered submarine to port in Havana, Cuba. Its stated intentions are both to punish Western countries for supporting Ukraine and to display its own power projection capabilities. 

Latin America holds an important place in Russia’s foreign and defense policy.[i] Most importantly, Latin America is a key battleground for pushing back against the United States’ operations in the European theater—specifically Ukraine.

According to the excerpted article in the Spanish daily El País, the recent port call of four Russian naval vessels in Havana, Cuba should be seen within this context. Prior to arriving in Cuba, the three surface warships and a nuclear-powered submarine participated in missile exercises in the Atlantic Ocean. While Russia’s Navy had been visiting the Caribbean more frequently in the past, COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine have curtailed the number of these visits. El País also reports that once the Russian warships leave Cuba they will conduct exercises in the Caribbean before continuing onwards to Venezuela. The Cuban government was quick to point out that none of the vessels are nuclear armed. However, as reported in the second excerpted article by the Argentine outlet Infobae, Russians assured the media that the submarine carried hypersonic missiles. Furthermore, Infobae concluded that the timing of the visits was not mere coincidence: the visit came approximately one week after Russian President Vladimir Putin mused about placing weapons in countries close to the United States in response to  Washington’s support of Ukraine.

This development is significant because it reaffirms Russia’s close ties with Cuba and Venezuela and indicates that Russia continues to view Latin America as a central region in near-peer competition. It is also notable that regional responses to the visit have been muted. Few Latin American governments have said anything publicly—possibly a harbinger of broader Russian influence in keeping Latin American countries non-aligned on geopolitical issues.[ii]

Sources:

“Llega al puerto de La Habana una flotilla de buques de guerra rusos con un submarino nuclear (A flotilla of Russian warships arrives at the port of Havana with a nuclear submarine),” El País (a Spanish daily with excellent regional coverage), 12 June 2024. https://elpais.com/america/2024-06-12/llega-al-puerto-de-la-habana-una-flotilla-de-buques-de-guerra-rusos-con-un-submarino-nuclear.html

Until June 17, the ships will remain in Cuban waters…Before arriving in Havana, the Russian ships carried out exercises and maneuvers in the Atlantic. These are not the first naval maneuvers involving Cuba and Russia. In July the Russian Navy training ship Perekop spent several days in Havana. The frigate Almirante Gorshkov was there in 2019…Cuba is Russia’s most important partner in the Western Hemisphere from a purely geopolitical and geostrategic point of view and the meaning of this naval presence is not essentially different from the past: Russia wants to demonstrate that its navy is capable of crossing the oceans and reaching the coasts of Florida.

“Cuba profundiza su relación con Rusia: tres buques de guerra y un submarino llegarán a La Habana para ejercicios militares (Cuba deepens its relationship with Russia: three warships and a submarine will arrive in Havana for military exercises),” Infobae (an Argentine outlet with excellent regional coverage), 6 June 2024. https://www.infobae.com/america/mundo/2024/06/06/cuba-profundiza-su-relacion-con-rusia-tres-buques-de-guerra-y-un-submarino-llegaran-a-la-habana-para-ejercicios-militares/  

Although the military maneuvers have been planned in advance, they follow the words of the President of Russia about possible retaliation due to Ukrainian attacks against Russian territory with Western weapons. The president mentioned the possibility of Moscow delivering military material to other countries to carry out ‘attacks against sensitive targets’ of Kyiv’s partners.

Notes:

[i] For more information on how Russia views Latin America, especially in the context of its war against Ukraine, see: Ryan C. Berg et al., “Two Years Later: LAC and Russia’s War in Ukraine,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 22 February 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/two-years-later-lac-and-russias-war-ukraine

[ii] To read more about Russia’s strategy and how Latin America has remained relatively silent on Russia’s recent activities, and especially its war in Ukraine, see: Ryan C. Berg et al., “A Hesitant Hemisphere: How Latin America has been Shaped by the War in Ukraine,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 22 February 27 2023. https://www.csis.org/analysis/hesitant-hemisphere-how-latin-america-has-been-shaped-war-ukraine

Image:

Image: An Admiral Gorshkov class frigate at sea was part of the five Russian warships that paid a port of call to Cuba in June 2024.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_frigate_Admiral_Gorshkov – /media/File:Admiral_Gorshkov_frigate_03.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0