Author Archives: Ryan Berg

Cartel Internecine Warfare Erupts in the State of Sinaloa

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Mugshot of Sinaloa Cartel leader, Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera, one of the most wanted men in the world, extradited to the United States in 2016.

“President Andrés Manuel López Obrador called on the criminal groups—Mayos and Chapitos—that are facing the attack to act “with a minimum of responsibility.”

The state of Sinaloa, along Mexico’s Pacific coast, is synonymous with cartels and home to one of the most notorious transnational criminal groups in the country.[i] Following the arrest of longtime cartel kingpin, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada García, at the U.S. southern border, violence has broken out between two opposing factions of the Sinaloa Cartel.[ii] Anticipating further violence between the two major factions, one controlled by the children of former Sinaloa Cartel leader Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera and the other by those loyal to El Chapo’s former business associate, El Mayo, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador pleaded with the cartel to “act with a minimum of responsibility,” according to the excerpted article from right-leaning Mexican daily El Universal. The newspaper reports that the Mexican government is downplaying the number of deaths in Sinaloa; however, the violence has escalated rapidly, triggering the cancellation of Mexico’s Independence Day celebrations in the state of Sinaloa.

Argentine news outlet Infobae reports that at least 18 people have reportedly died in a wave of violence that includes roadblocks, the destruction of public infrastructure, and the closure of businesses. The escalating turf war between the two factions of the Sinaloa Cartel has significant ramifications for the operational environment. First, incoming president Claudia Sheinbaum will likely start her term on 1 October with an escalating security crisis in the Sinaloa state. Second, whichever faction emerges victorious in this internecine battle will have more consolidated control over Mexico’s criminal landscape and lucrative routes to traffic, among other things, fentanyl to the United States.

Sources:

“AMLO llama a grupos criminales que se enfrentan en Sinaloa a actuar ‘con un mínimo de responsabilidad’ (AMLO calls on criminal groups fighting in Sinaloa to act ‘with a minimum of responsibility’),” El Universal (right-leaning Mexican daily), 13 September 2024. https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/amlo-llama-a-grupos-criminales-que-se-enfrentan-en-sinaloa-a-actuar-con-un-minimo-de-responsabilidad/

After four days of violence in Culiacán, Sinaloa, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador called on the criminal groups—Mayos and Chapitos—that are facing the attack to act ‘with a minimum of responsibility.’ He said, ‘With the presence of the Armed Forces to ensure that there is no confrontation, to protect the population, they must also act with a minimum of responsibility. It is their family, their fellow countrymen, their municipality, their state and their country.’ At a press conference, the President considered that the violence in Culiacán so far ‘is not a major issue.’…Out of prudence, the Independence Day celebrations in Culiacán were cancelled.

Source: “Al menos 18 muertes en una nueva ola de violencia en Sinaloa (México) (At least 18 dead in a new wave of violence in Sinaloa (Mexico)),” Infobae (Argentine outlet with excellent regional coverage), 15 September 2024. https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2024/09/15/al-menos-18-muertes-en-una-nueva-ola-de-violencia-en-sinaloa-mexico/   

During the second week of September, 18 homicides, 36 carjackings and 28 reports of deprivation of liberty have been recorded, in an escalation of violence carried out by criminal groups in the Mexican state of Sinaloa, according to authorities…Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya has acknowledged the seriousness of the situation and has attributed these clashes to disputes between factions of the Sinaloa Cartel, specifically between Los Chapitos and Los Mayos.

Notes:

[i] For an updated profile of the Sinaloa Cartel and its activities, see: Insight Crime, “Sinaloa Cartel,” last updated 15 March 2024. https://insightcrime.org/mexico-organized-crime-news/sinaloa-cartel-profile/

[ii] The story of El Mayo’s arrival at the U.S. southern border is long and still not fully known, but for a comprehensive background on what may have transpired, see: José de Córdoba, “Betrayal and Capture of Sinaloa Cartel Leaders Spark Fears of Turf War,” The Wall Street Journal, 12 August 2024. https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/betrayal-and-capture-of-sinaloa-cartel-leaders-spark-fears-of-turf-war-d1a805f8

Image Information:

Image: Mugshot of Sinaloa Cartel leader, Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera, one of the most wanted men in the world, extradited to the United States in 2016.
Source: https://picryl.com/media/booking-photo-of-joaquin-el-chapo-guzman-front-873b60

Electoral Fraud in Venezuela Assists Axis of Authoritarians

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Venezuela’s National Electoral Council, which announced fabricated numbers on election night.

‘The governments of China, Russia, and Iran, close to the regime of Nicolás Maduro and with major economic and military interests in Venezuela, congratulated the Venezuelan dictator for the electoral victory that he has claimed for himself amid accusations of fraud.”

Venezuela’s recent presidential election has been the subject of significant criticism from election observers and the international community.[i] In addition to the electoral irregularities and uneven playing field before election day, the Maduro regime delayed the announcement of election results due to an alleged cyber-attack from North Macedonia. When the regime’s National Electoral Council, an institution it firmly controls, eventually announced the results, voters immediately knew the numbers were fabricated.[ii] The first excerpted article from Excelsior, Mexico’s second-oldest daily newspaper, reports that much of Latin America sees the situation similarly, and many countries have decided to withhold their recognition of the election results until the National Electoral Council shows the vote tallies proving Maduro’s win. Thus far, the outlet reports, the regime has provided incredible excuses for why it cannot provide them—first, the purported cyber-attack, followed by the claim of a hack by Elon Musk.[iii] In response, the outlet says Maduro decided to break diplomatic relations with seven Latin American countries that criticized Venezuela’s electoral process and lack of transparency.

Contrary to much of Latin America’s criticism, Venezuela’s authoritarian allies were quick to recognize Maduro’s victory. The second excerpted article from Argentine media outlet Infobae, recounts how China, Russia, and Iran immediately recognized Maduro’s “victory” given the importance of their alliance. Russia, the outlet states, went beyond recognition and pledged further military support for Caracas. Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Honduras have also recognized Maduro’s claim of victory.

Maduro’s inability to produce vote tabulations proving his victory will further isolate him from the West and send him deeper into the arms of his fellow authoritarians. This is notable given the months preceding the election featured regional diplomatic engagement to keep the elections on track. Conversely, China, Russia, and Iran have an interest in keeping Maduro in power because his regime thumbs its nose at the United States and continues to provide them with a strong foothold in Latin America.

Sources:

“Venezuela rompe relaciones diplomáticas con 7 países latinoamericanos (Venezuela breaks diplomatic relations with 7 Latin American countries),” Excelsior (Mexico’s second-oldest daily newspaper), 29 July 2024. https://www.excelsior.com.mx/global/venezuela-maduro-rompe-relaciones-diplomaticas-siete-paises-latinoamericanos/1665230 

Venezuela decided…to withdraw all its diplomatic personnel from its missions in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Panama, the Dominican Republic and Uruguay, hours after these countries demanded ‘a complete review of the results’ of the elections with the presence of independent observers…The result sparked a wave of protests in Venezuelan territory and condemnation, as well as calls for transparency from the international community. In response to the request of Latin American countries, the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry said it decided to ‘withdraw all diplomatic personnel from the missions in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Panama, the Dominican Republic, and Uruguay, while demanding that those governments immediately withdraw their representatives from Venezuelan territory.’

“China, Rusia e Irán felicitaron a Nicolás Maduro tras el fraude electoral en Venezuela (China, Russia and Iran congratulate Nicolas Maduro after electoral fraud in Venezuela),” Infobae (an Argentine outlet with excellent regional coverage), 29 July 2024. https://www.infobae.com/venezuela/2024/07/29/china-rusia-e-iran-felicitaron-a-nicolas-maduro-tras-el-fraude-electoral-en-venezuela/ 

The governments of China, Russia, and Iran, close to the regime of Nicolás Maduro and with major economic and military interests in Venezuela, congratulated the Venezuelan dictator for the electoral victory that he has claimed for himself amid accusations of fraud…Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at his daily press conference that Moscow intends to continue deepening cooperation with Caracas in all areas, including ‘sensitive’ ones, such as military-technical cooperation. In Latin America, the governments of Cuba, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Bolivia, which are all sympathetic to the Chavista regime,also spoke in favor of Maduro.

Notes:

[i] For more information on the fraud and how it was committed, see: Ryan C. Berg and Christopher Hernandez-Roy, “Can Maduro Pull Off the Mother of All Electoral Frauds,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, 1 August 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-maduro-pull-mother-all-electoral-frauds

[ii] Writing in the Wall Street Journal, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado details how the opposition mobilized a volunteer network to collect electronic voting tabulations from voting machines, giving them proof of Maduro’s fraud. See: “I Can Prove Maduro Got Trounced,” Wall Street Journal, 1 August 2024. https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-can-prove-maduro-got-trounced-venezuela-election-stolen-772d66a0

[iii] After a highly public back-and-forth with Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter), Maduro blocked access to X in Venezuela for an initial period of 10 days. See: Vivian Sequera and Mayela Armas, “Venezuela’s Maduro blocks X access in country for 10 days,” Reuters, 9 August 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelas-maduro-signs-decree-blocking-x-access-10-days-2024-08-08/

OE Insight Summary:

Fraudulent elections in VEN have been denounced by much of Latin America; after the election, the Maduro regime is leaning further into alliances with authoritarian allies CHN, RUS, and IRN. 

Image Information:

Image: Venezuela’s National Electoral Council, which announced fabricated numbers on election night.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Consejo_Nacional_Electoral_Cne_Fachada_Posterior.JPG.      
Attribution: CC BY-SA 3.0.

Criminal Organizations Mar Mexican Elections

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Claudia Sheinbaum, former Mexico City mayor, won a resounding victory in the elections and will be the next president of Mexico.

“Without a doubt, this is a weakening of democracy because citizens are afraid to go out to vote, or they do not see the point in going out to vote, if it seems that crime is dominating, who defines who can be a candidate, who does campaign.”

Summary: Recently completed elections in Mexico, the largest in the country’s history, were also the most violent in its history. Election-related violence portends greater control of criminal organizations over politics.

Mexico’s 2 June elections were highly anticipated, and the results closely watched. It was the largest election in Mexico’s history, with more than 20,000 seats contested at local, state, and federal levels.[i] While coverage of the election tended to focus on breaking the glass ceiling—both major candidates were women, a first in a country known for “machismo”—the elections were also marred by intense violence, assassinations, and kidnappings.[ii]

The business-focused Mexican daily El Economista, reported that as the campaign closed, more than 30 candidates for public office, and approximately 50 people close to candidates or working for candidates, had been assassinated during the campaign season—the most violent campaign season on record. There were also countless attacks, threats, and intimidation against family members and friends of candidates, and hundreds more were murdered at campaign events, the outlet states. Further, the newspaper relays that most of the victims were candidates for local office, where organized crime groups seek to control public officials. 272 separate attacks were recorded during the campaign season, many of them in central and southern Mexican states afflicted by violence and contestation between criminal groups. Spanish international news agency EFE, says that election violence dampens democratic enthusiasm and participation. The outlet cites a datapoint of note: each assassination can reduce participation rates by up to 3 percent in a locality. EFE also reports that at least 168 polling stations around the country did not operate due to violence and security concerns.

Election-related violence also indicates the changing model of territorial control most criminal organizations seek to implement. Criminal organizations have taken to assassinating political opponents and candidates they deem as too independent.[iii] And, rather than corrupting sitting politicians, criminal groups seek to install their candidates in the most important local offices. Mexico’s election-related violence demonstrates the country’s slide into greater insecurity has grave consequences for the operational environment.

Sources:

“Los mexicanos salen a votar en las elecciones más grandes de la historia y también las más violentas (Mexicans go out to vote in the largest elections in history and also the most violent),” El Economista (a Mexican daily mostly focused on business and finance), 2 June 2024. https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Los-mexicanos-salen-a-votar-en-las-Elecciones-mas-grandes-de-la-historia-y-tambien-las-mas-violentas-20240602-0003.html

Since the political campaigns began, 30 candidates for public office and nearly 50 leaders or sympathizers related to the electoral process have been murdered…The elections, in which just over 20,000 public positions will be elected…are being held under the shadow of violence that has left a record of murdered candidates, fueling concerns about democracy in the country…The fatalities are mostly aspirants, pre-candidates, or candidates for municipal positions.

“Las elecciones más grandes de México también pasarán a la historia como las más violentas (Mexico’s biggest elections will also go down in history as the most violent),” EFE (a Spanish international news agency with regional coverage), 2 June 2024. https://efe.com/mundo/2024-06-02/las-elecciones-mas-grandes-de-mexico-tambien-pasaran-a-la-historia-como-las-mas-violentas/ The largest election in Mexico will also go down in history this Sunday as the most violent…Integralia, a political consultancy, reported 150.5% more attacks in this electoral process, which officially began in September, compared to the last midterm elections in 2021, which includes murders, armed attacks, threats, kidnappings and disappearances…When analyzing previous elections, Data Cívica found that for each attack on a candidate, participation in the locality in question drops 1.3%, and if the victim is a serving politician, such as the mayor, the drop is 3%…‘Without a doubt, this is a weakening of democracy because citizens are afraid to go out to vote, or they do not see the point in going out to vote, if it seems that crime is dominating, who defines who can be a candidate, who does campaign.’

Notes:

[i] For more information on the election at a granular level, see: “Mexico Elects: Ongoing Coverage of the 2024 Race,” Americas Society/Council of the Americas. https://www.as-coa.org/articles/mexico-elects-ongoing-coverage-2024-vote

[ii] For more information on the election results and the dominant performance of the ruling Morena Party, see: Ryan C. Berg and Rubi Bledsoe, “Claudia Sheinbaum: the Most Powerful Woman in the World?,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, 7 June 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/claudia-sheinbaum-most-powerful-woman-world

[iii] To listen to more analysis on the cartels’ changing operational methods and its relationship to election violence, see: Ryan C. Berg, “The Long Shadow of Violence in Mexico’s Elections,” 35West Podcast, Center for Strategic & International Studies, 13 June 2024. https://www.csis.org/podcasts/35-west/long-shadow-violence-mexicos-elections

OE Insight:

Recently completed elections in MEX, the largest in the country’s history, were also the most violent in its history. Election-related violence portends greater control of criminal organizations over politics. 

Image Information:

Image: Claudia Sheinbaum, former Mexico City mayor, won a resounding victory in the elections and will be the next president of Mexico.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/eneas/53678721694/.     
Attribution: CC BY 2.0

Russia Demonstrating Power Projection Capabilities With Havana Port Call

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An Admiral Gorshkov class frigate at sea was part of the five Russian warships that paid a port of call to Cuba in June 2024.

“Cuba is Russia’s most important partner in the Western Hemisphere from a purely geopolitical and geostrategic point of view.”

Summary: The Russian government has sent a flotilla of three warships and one nuclear-powered submarine to port in Havana, Cuba. Its stated intentions are both to punish Western countries for supporting Ukraine and to display its own power projection capabilities. 

Latin America holds an important place in Russia’s foreign and defense policy.[i] Most importantly, Latin America is a key battleground for pushing back against the United States’ operations in the European theater—specifically Ukraine.

According to the excerpted article in the Spanish daily El País, the recent port call of four Russian naval vessels in Havana, Cuba should be seen within this context. Prior to arriving in Cuba, the three surface warships and a nuclear-powered submarine participated in missile exercises in the Atlantic Ocean. While Russia’s Navy had been visiting the Caribbean more frequently in the past, COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine have curtailed the number of these visits. El País also reports that once the Russian warships leave Cuba they will conduct exercises in the Caribbean before continuing onwards to Venezuela. The Cuban government was quick to point out that none of the vessels are nuclear armed. However, as reported in the second excerpted article by the Argentine outlet Infobae, Russians assured the media that the submarine carried hypersonic missiles. Furthermore, Infobae concluded that the timing of the visits was not mere coincidence: the visit came approximately one week after Russian President Vladimir Putin mused about placing weapons in countries close to the United States in response to  Washington’s support of Ukraine.

This development is significant because it reaffirms Russia’s close ties with Cuba and Venezuela and indicates that Russia continues to view Latin America as a central region in near-peer competition. It is also notable that regional responses to the visit have been muted. Few Latin American governments have said anything publicly—possibly a harbinger of broader Russian influence in keeping Latin American countries non-aligned on geopolitical issues.[ii]

Sources:

“Llega al puerto de La Habana una flotilla de buques de guerra rusos con un submarino nuclear (A flotilla of Russian warships arrives at the port of Havana with a nuclear submarine),” El País (a Spanish daily with excellent regional coverage), 12 June 2024. https://elpais.com/america/2024-06-12/llega-al-puerto-de-la-habana-una-flotilla-de-buques-de-guerra-rusos-con-un-submarino-nuclear.html

Until June 17, the ships will remain in Cuban waters…Before arriving in Havana, the Russian ships carried out exercises and maneuvers in the Atlantic. These are not the first naval maneuvers involving Cuba and Russia. In July the Russian Navy training ship Perekop spent several days in Havana. The frigate Almirante Gorshkov was there in 2019…Cuba is Russia’s most important partner in the Western Hemisphere from a purely geopolitical and geostrategic point of view and the meaning of this naval presence is not essentially different from the past: Russia wants to demonstrate that its navy is capable of crossing the oceans and reaching the coasts of Florida.

“Cuba profundiza su relación con Rusia: tres buques de guerra y un submarino llegarán a La Habana para ejercicios militares (Cuba deepens its relationship with Russia: three warships and a submarine will arrive in Havana for military exercises),” Infobae (an Argentine outlet with excellent regional coverage), 6 June 2024. https://www.infobae.com/america/mundo/2024/06/06/cuba-profundiza-su-relacion-con-rusia-tres-buques-de-guerra-y-un-submarino-llegaran-a-la-habana-para-ejercicios-militares/  

Although the military maneuvers have been planned in advance, they follow the words of the President of Russia about possible retaliation due to Ukrainian attacks against Russian territory with Western weapons. The president mentioned the possibility of Moscow delivering military material to other countries to carry out ‘attacks against sensitive targets’ of Kyiv’s partners.

Notes:

[i] For more information on how Russia views Latin America, especially in the context of its war against Ukraine, see: Ryan C. Berg et al., “Two Years Later: LAC and Russia’s War in Ukraine,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 22 February 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/two-years-later-lac-and-russias-war-ukraine

[ii] To read more about Russia’s strategy and how Latin America has remained relatively silent on Russia’s recent activities, and especially its war in Ukraine, see: Ryan C. Berg et al., “A Hesitant Hemisphere: How Latin America has been Shaped by the War in Ukraine,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 22 February 27 2023. https://www.csis.org/analysis/hesitant-hemisphere-how-latin-america-has-been-shaped-war-ukraine

OE Insight Summary:

RUS government sends flotilla of three warships and one nuclear-powered submarine to port in Havana, CUB. Stated intentions are to punish Western countries for support of Ukraine and display power projection capabilities. 

Image:

Image: An Admiral Gorshkov [RG1] class frigate at sea was part of the five Russian warships that paid a port of call to Cuba in June 2024.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_frigate_Admiral_Gorshkov – /media/File:Admiral_Gorshkov_frigate_03.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

 [RG1]WEG Name: Admiral-Gorshkov Class (Project 22350 Class) Russian Frigate

WEG Link: https://odin.tradoc.army.mil/WEG/Asset/f47d39c5501f875d0c0e85489359679a

Cracks Appear in Maduro Regime

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Tareck El Aissami was once one of the most powerful men in Venezuela and a top Maduro confidant.

“Maduro became a victim in the face of a violent opposition that wanted to kill him. It turns out that some of his own people were behind the attack.”

Recently, the Maduro regime has shown signs of schisms within the ruling Chavista Party,[i] now known as the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). The arrest and prosecution of regime insider, former Oil Minister Tareck El Aissami, is a watershed moment for elites in Maduro’s inner circle. According to the first excerpted article from the centrist Colombian daily El Tiempo, Maduro accused El Aissami of being behind the assassination attempt, as well as corruption, pilfering roughly $21 billion from the state-owned oil company while serving as oil minister.[ii] According to the second excerpted article from the Spanish outlet El País, El Aissami, in addition to the assassination accusation, fell for endangering the PSUV’s electoral prospects with his large-scale theft of public resources. . The outlet notes how the arrests of El Aissami and his associates sent a chill through many circles of regime elites. They come in the context of Venezuela’s July presidential election, in which Maduro faces stiff competition from an organized opposition that continues to lead Maduro in the polls. The fact that dozens have been arrested alongside El Aissami indicates a growing crisis of trust within Chavismo’s elite ranks.[iii] Further, the money that El Aissami stole to grease his corruption networks has restricted the Maduro regime from greater social spending during the campaign, contributing to his flagging prospects of winning the election.

Sources:

Source: “Traicionado por su propio círculo? Así fue cómo un ministro cercano a Nicolás Maduro casi implosiona al chavismo (Betrayed by his own circle? This is how a minister close to Nicolás Maduro almost imploded Chavismo),” El Tiempo (a Colombian daily generally considered politically centrist), 30 April 2024. https://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/venezuela/los-conspiradores-estaban-con-maduro-como-un-ministro-casi-implosiona-al-chavismo-3338641

Less than a month ago, El Aissami was seen handcuffed, quite skinny, and with an emaciated appearance…even if it were true that El Aissami had been conspiring against Maduro, his imprisonment could be more related to the accusation than to the ‘loss’ of 21 billion dollars from PDVSA, a plot that leaves more than 60 detainees, all allies of the former minister…With the drone attack story, Maduro became a victim in the face of a violent opposition that wanted to kill him. It turns out that some of his own people were behind the attack.

Source:  “Venezuela detiene al exministro del Petróleo Tareck El Aissami, hasta hace poco un político íntimo de Maduro (Venezuela detains former Oil Minister Tareck El Aissami, until recently a close politician of Maduro),” El País (a Spanish outlet with excellent regional coverage), 9 April 2024. https://elpais.com/america/2024-04-09/venezuela-detiene-al-exministro-del-petroleo-tareck-el-aissami-hasta-hace-poco-un-politico-intimo-de-maduro.html

The tectonic plates of Chavismo have received a strong shock this Tuesday. The Venezuelan Prosecutor’s Office has announced the arrest of former minister Tareck El Aissami, a politician who until a year and a half ago belonged to Nicolás Maduro’s circle of trust…The definitive fall of El Aissami—a powerful and feared operator of Chavismo, around whom important layers of current national capital had been organized—seems to close the chapter of an expensive fraud on the nation, orchestrated under the shadow of international sanctions, in a time in which…the country’s oil production and the economy, were completely bankrupt, in the midst of a massive emigration of people. This may be the most radical and merciless purge carried out by Chavismo since it came to power…El Aissami is not taken to prison for ideological differences, but for having endangered the revolution and abusing its authority.

Notes:

[i] Chavismo is the movement of those who follow Huge Chavez, which today is encapsulated in the party formally called PSUV (United Socialist Party of Venezuela, in English). Chavistas are followers of Chavismo.

[ii] To understand more about the unfathomable scale of this theft from PDVSA, and the use of crypto currency and middlemen, see: Marianna Parraga, “Exclusive: Middlemen Have Left Venezuela’s PDVSA with $21.2 billion in Unpaid Bills,” Reuters, 21 March 2023. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/middlemen-have-left-venezuelas-pdvsa-with-212-billion-unpaid-bills-2023-03-21/

[iii] For more information on the opposition’s success in pressuring Maduro despite the long electoral odds, see: Ryan C. Berg, “This Could Be the Last Shot to Restore Democracy in Venezuela,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, 4 April 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/could-be-last-shot-restore-democracy-venezuela

Image Information:

Image: Tareck El Aissami was once one of the most powerful men in Venezuela and a top Maduro confidant.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/globovision/6336412991/
Attribution: CC BY-NC 2.0 DEED

Peru’s Stance On Megaport Is a Test of China’s Influence

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“Now the National Port Authority is trying to rescind the exclusivity, claiming it made a mistake…The Chinese company, however, remains firm and even hints that it could withdraw if it does not obtain exclusive access.”

China’s megaport in Chancay, Peru, just north of Lima, is set to be inaugurated by Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year during the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference. One of the largest deep-water ports of its kind, Chancay represents one of China’s most ambitious projects in South America. Built by state-owned enterprise Cosco Shipping, Chancay is meant to catalyze the China’s food security and dominance over critical minerals, while cutting shipping times to Asia by around one week. However, according to Argentine media outlet Infobae, Peruvian officials have announced an “administrative error” permitting Cosco Shipping to both build and operate the port exclusively.[i] According to the article, Peruvian regulators have rejected Cosco’s exclusivity, declaring it incompatible with having built the port under domestic law.[ii] As per the second excerpted article from Infobae, Cosco has said it will initiate legal action against Peruvian regulators, insisting on its economic model of exclusivity. The fallout from the Port of Chancay legal wrangling is notable, and likely to have a lasting impact. China sees the moment as precedent-setting for other countries with Chinese state-owned enterprises controlling key infrastructure projects, while Peru finds itself in a major bind after years of burgeoning Chinese influence over strategic sectors in the country. If Cosco manages to win exclusive control of Chancay, China will further solidify its control over strategic infrastructure in the Western Hemisphere; if Peru manages to safeguard its autonomy, it may furnish a blueprint for other regional powers willing to test the limits of China’s infrastructure ownership models.

Sources:

Source: “El ‘error administrativo’ que pone en jaque al Perú: dio el control total a China del Megapuerto de Chancay (The ‘administrative error’ that puts Peru in check: it gave China full control of the Chancay Megaport),” Infobae (an Argentine outlet with excellent regional coverage), 14 May 2024. https://www.infobae.com/peru/2024/05/14/el-error-administrativo-que-pone-en-jaque-al-peru-dio-el-control-total-a-china-del-megapuerto-de-chancay/  

With a projected investment of more than three billion, China is now bringing out its true intentions and at the same time taking advantage of an ‘administrative error’ on the part of Peruvian officials by granting operational exclusivity to Cosco, which has put the project in check…a situation that the National Port Authority of Peru is currently trying to solve…The Peruvian government assumed that the Chinese shipping giant would simply use the port of which it will be the majority owner and would not have exclusive rights over it. But during the negotiations, Cosco somehow obtained precisely these rights. Now the National Port Authority is trying to rescind the exclusivity, claiming it made a mistake…The Chinese company, however, remains firm and even hints that it could withdraw if it does not obtain exclusive access.

Source: “Megapuerto de Chancay: Cosco Shipping no da su brazo a torcer y anuncia sus acciones legales por conflicto con el Estado peruano (Chancay Megaport: Cosco Shipping does not give in and announces its legal actions due to conflict with the Peruvian State),” Infobae (an Argentine outlet with excellent regional coverage), 8 May 2024. https://www.infobae.com/peru/2024/05/07/megapuerto-de-chancay-consorcio-chino-no-dara-su-brazo-a-torcer-y-anuncia-sus-acciones-legales-por-conflicto-con-el-estado-peruano/  Through a statement, the Chinese consortium Cosco Shipping Ports Chancay Peru SA, in charge of the megaproject, recognized that the port infrastructure work in the country has been ‘seriously harmed’ by a change in the regulatory scheme…the company reported that they have found it necessary to initiate legal actions to defend its operating model and ensure its classification as private infrastructure, despite the public benefits it offers.

Notes:

[i] At an earlier period, U.S. officials warned Peru about China exerting control and exclusivity over Chancay. See: Michael Stott and Joe Daniels, “U.S. Raises Concern with Peru over Chinese Control of Infrastructure,” Financial Times, 3 October 2023. https://www.ft.com/content/2c77be69-60d7-4d5c-a0c6-c7978bde3888

[ii] According to noted analyst Elisabeth Braw, this situation is likely the result of Peru failing to read the fine print of the agreement. See: Elisabeth Braw, “Peru Learns to Read the Fine Print in China Deals,” Foreign Policy, 13 May 2024. https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/13/peru-learns-to-read-the-fine-print-in-china-deals/

Ecuador’s Raid on Mexican Embassy Fractures Regional Comity

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EcuadorianPresident Daniel Noboa has sought to project an image of being tough on crime and impunity. He has come under fire for authorizing the raid of Mexico’s embassy in the country.

“Glas was to receive safe passage from the Ecuadorian authorities allowing him to fly to Mexico City, but instead, Noboa ordered his immediate capture.”

Tensions between Ecuador and Mexico have been simmering since Mexican President Obrador questioned the legitimacy of Ecuadorian President Noboa’s election victory in October 2023. A short time later, in December 2023, Ecuador’s former Vice President, Jorge Glas, thrice convicted of corruption, exiled himself to Mexico’s embassy in Quito to avoid another prosecution.[i] According to the excerpted article in the Spanish daily El País, President Noboa gave the order to raid Mexico’s embassy and detain Glas. The trigger for the action appears to have been President Obrador’s decision to grant Glas political asylum, which the Noboa government argues would have served the cause of impunity. In response, as the article from El País reports, Mexico accused Ecuador of contravening the Vienna Convention and broke diplomatic relations. The regional outcry was swift, according to the second excerpted article from the Argentine daily Clarín. Nicaragua immediately broke relations with Ecuador, while other countries expressed grave concerns, rebuked Ecuador’s actions and threatened to rupture their own bilateral relations. At the center of the debate appears to be the interpretation of the inviolability of embassies in the Vienna Convention and the need to balance with the Caracas Convention, which states that political asylum cannot be abused by those already convicted in competent domestic courts. The nature of the Noboa government’s raid on Mexico’s embassy and the uproar of condemnation has impacted the entire region. Latin America has fractured along familiar political lines in response to the raid, with leftist governments generally taking Mexico’s side and moving to sever relations with Ecuador, and governments ruled by the right decrying Ecuador’s actions while emphasizing Mexico’s abuse of asylum procedure. Many countries have observed others’ responses as a litmus test for their own sets of bilateral relations.[ii] For Noboa’s part, domestic politics likely drove much of the decision-making, as a truncated presidential term and the country’s security crisis have led him to project an image of tough-on-crime. Glas’ connection to organized crime, and foreign criminal organizations driving some of Ecuador’s surge in violence, made the decision to seize him politically popular among Ecuadorians.

OE Insight Summary:

ECU government raid of MEX government embassy in Quito has sent regional relations spiraling and generated conversations about the appropriate use of granting political asylum.

Sources:

“México rompe relaciones con Ecuador tras el asalto policial a su Embajada en Quito (Mexico breaks relations with Ecuador after the police assault on its Embassy in Quito),” El País (Spanish daily with excellent regional coverage), 6 April 2024. https://elpais.com/mexico/2024-04-06/mexico-rompe-relaciones-con-ecuador-tras-el-asalto-policial-a-su-embajada-en-quito.html 

Mexico has broken relations with Ecuador. The measure was adopted after the Ecuadorian police attacked the Mexican Embassy in Quito with armored cars and masked agents…and forcibly took away former vice president Jorge Glas, who hours before had received political asylum from the Government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador…In the following hours, Glas was to receive safe passage from the Ecuadorian authorities allowing him to fly to Mexico City, but instead, Noboa ordered his immediate capture.

“La canciller de Ecuador afirma que México violó primero las normas diplomáticas: ‘Hubo incumplimientos y respuestas negativas’ (The Foreign Minister of Ecuador affirms that Mexico first violated diplomatic norms: ‘There were non-compliance and negative responses’),” Clarín (Argentine daily that covers most of Latin America), 8 April 2024. https://www.clarin.com/mundo/canciller-ecuador-afirma-mexico-violo-primero-normas-diplomaticas-incumplimientos-respuestas-negativas_0_ozE6HjUzaH.html  

For Mexico, Ecuador violated the Vienna Convention, which has some 115 countries, and which regulates relations between states through treaties. It is considered one of the main sources of international law and its compliance is mandatory for the states that have ratified it…In response, [Foreign Minister] Sommerfeld noted that Mexico did not respect Article 1 of the Montevideo Convention of 1933 or Article 3 of the Caracas Convention of 1954, regarding the fact that it is not lawful to grant asylum to people accused of common crimes, as was the situation of Glas in a case for alleged embezzlement of funds in the reconstruction of the province of Manabí after the 2016 earthquake.

Notes:

[i] President Noboa is grappling with a surge of gang-related violence, and Glas stands convicted of corruption, including links to transnational criminal organizations. For more information on the origins of Ecuador’s insecurity crisis, see: Ryan C. Berg, “President Lasso Calls for ‘Plan Ecuador’ Amid Growing Security Concerns,” OE Watch, December 2021. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/400849

[ii] For more information on how the international fallout could negatively impact the Noboa government, see: James Bosworth, “The Mexican Embassy Raid in Ecuador Will Backfire for Noboa,” World Politics Review, 8 April 2024. https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/ecuador-mexico-embassy-corruption/

Image Information:

Image: EcuadorianPresident Daniel Noboa has sought to project an image of being tough on crime and impunity. He has come under fire for authorizing the raid of Mexico’s embassy in the country.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/presidenciaecuador/53497882306 
Attribution: PDM 1.0 DEED.

Venezuela’s Maduro Targets Previous Allies Under Anti-Corruption Campaign

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El Aissami campaigns for governor of the state of Aragua. President Maduro recently had him arrested under the auspices of a national anti-corruption campaign.

“The Venezuelan Prosecutor’s Office has announced the arrest of former minister Tareck El Aissami, a politician who until a year and a half ago belonged to Nicolás Maduro’s circle of trust.”

The Maduro government in Venezuela has launched an anti-corruption probe into politically motivated transnational criminal elements within its regime.[i] According to the first excerpted article in the Spanish daily El País, top targets of the probe include Tareck El Aissami, a former vice president and oil minister, as well as his business partners Samark Lopez, former finance minister Simon Zerpa, and others yet to be identified. El Aissami and his associates stand accused of stealing billions via a cryptocurrency payment scheme at the state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA). Maduro blames El Aissami and his associates for Venezuela’s moribund economy.

Meanwhile, according to the second excerpted article from the Spanish-language outlet CNN en Español, Maduro organized the extraterritorial assassination of a dissident member of the Venezuelan armed forces, Ronald Ojeda, who was living in Chile. The CNN story quotes the prosecutor in the case, who rules out any other cause of death. Given that Maduro faces a difficult scenario this year, discarding erstwhile allies now considered disloyal, such as El Aissami, appears to be crucial for him to consolidate and maintain his regime’s hold on power in an election year. Formerly, El Aissami was considered one of Maduro’s top allies.[ii] However, as the extraterritorial assassination of Ronald Ojeda shows, the Maduro regime’s criminal links remain strong and capable of operating transnationally within Latin America in service of his regime’s consolidation.

OE Insight Summary:

VEN regime of Nicolas Maduro has undertaken a highly questionable anticorruption campaign that seeks to eliminate challengers to the regime and blame those arrested for its economic woes.

Sources:

“Venezuela detiene al exministro del Petróleo Tareck El Aissami, hasta hace poco un político íntimo de Maduro (Venezuela detains former Oil Minister Tareck El Aissami, until recently an intimate politician of Maduro),” El País (a Spanish daily with excellent regional coverage), 9 April 2024. https://elpais.com/america/2024-04-09/venezuela-detiene-al-exministro-del-petroleo-tareck-el-aissami-hasta-hace-poco-un-politico-intimo-de-maduro.html

The Venezuelan Prosecutor’s Office has announced the arrest of former minister Tareck El Aissami, a politician who until a year and a half ago belonged to Nicolás Maduro’s circle of trust. El Aissami was in legal limbo since a mega corruption scheme was uncovered that affected PDVSA, the state oil company that he managed as minister. There is talk of embezzlement in the realm of 21 billion dollars.

“Caso Ronald Ojeda: fiscal de Chile dice que el crimen se ‘organizó y se solicitó’ desde Venezuela (Ronald Ojeda case: Chilean prosecutor says the crime was ‘organized and requested’ from Venezuela),” CNN en Español (the Spanish-language version of the Atlanta-based outlet), 12 April 2024. https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2024/04/12/caso-ronald-ojeda-chile-venezuela-orix/

Héctor Barros, prosecutor in charge of the case investigating the murder of former Venezuelan military officer Ronald Ojeda in Chile, stated in an interview with Chilevisión broadcast…that, according to the investigations, the crime ‘was organized and requested from Venezuela.’ Asked by the Chilevisión journalist about the possibility that the motive for the crime was political, Barros said that he has ‘no precedents that point us in the other direction.’

Notes:

[i] For more information on the criminal nature of the Maduro regime, see: Moises Rendon and Mia Kazman, “Maduro’s Mafia State,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 31 October 2018. https://www.csis.org/analysis/maduros-mafia-state

[ii] The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project has an excellent profile of El Aissami and his importance to the Maduro regime: “Former Venezuelan Oil Minister and Vice President Arrested for Corruption,” OCCRP, 11 April 2024. https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/18646-former-venezuelan-oil-minister-and-vice-president-arrested-for-corruption

Image Information:

Image: El Aissami campaigns for governor of the state of Aragua. President Maduro recently had him arrested under the auspices of a national anti-corruption campaign.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/tareckpsuv/8139341461/
Attribution: CC BY-NC 2.0 DEED.

Mexico’s Cartel-Related Violence Spikes as Elections Approach

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Mexico has responded to security threats by deploying its army on the streets.

“No more than 12 hours passed between the shooting of the Morena precandidate Miguel Ángel Zavala Reyes, and the shooting of the PAN precandidate, Armando Pérez Luna.”

Mexico has long suffered high levels of violence related to its powerful drug cartels. Violence often spikes during election season, as cartels seek to elect politicians aligned with their agendas and eliminate those opposed. According to the Spanish daily El País, recent assassinations in Mexico have contributed to growing fears that the country’s upcoming elections could witness more violence than in many previous election cycles.[i] The paper reports on two mayoral candidates in the municipality of Maravatío recently assassinated within hours of one another. The article mentions that earlier in the campaign season, cartels abducted and killed a third mayoral candidate from Maravatío. This area of the country features three powerful cartels contesting territory: the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, the Michoacán Family, and the Knights Templar. According to the second excerpted article by Diario de México, which highlights the research of NGO group Data Cívica, 36 aspirants to public office or members of their families were assassinated in January and February alone.[ii] Mexico’s cartels continue to accrete power, and during election season, seek to play a primary role in the selection of candidates. While candidates for federal office receive security protection from the government, local candidates do not. In Mexico, it is often control of local candidates that proves most important for cartel operations.

Sources:

“El terror en Maravatío: asesinados dos precandidatos a la alcaldía en menos de 12 horas (Terror in Maravatío: two mayoral candidates murdered in less than 12 hours),” El País (Spanish daily with excellent regional coverage), 27 February 2024. https://elpais.com/mexico/elecciones-mexicanas/2024-02-27/el-terror-en-maravatio-asesinados-dos-precandidatos-a-la-alcaldia-en-menos-de-12-horas.html 

No more than 12 hours passed between the shooting of the Morena precandidate Miguel Ángel Zavala Reyes, and the shooting of the PAN precandidate, Armando Pérez Luna; two of the people who were seeking to become the next municipal president of Maravatío, a municipality of 80,000 inhabitants in the State of Michoacán…According to the group Data Cívica, ‘In Mexico, electoral violence has become a tool of organized crime to influence the public life of states and municipalities’…During the month of January, at least five candidates or aspirants for elected office were murdered in Mexico.

“Febrero fue letal para aspirantes a cargo de elección popular: ONG (February was lethal for candidates for popular election positions: NGO),” Diario de México (one of the country’s oldest dailies), 15 March 2024. https://www.diariodemexico.com/mi-nacion/febrero-fue-letal-para-aspirantes-cargo-de-eleccion-popular-ong   At least five candidates or aspirants for elected office were murdered in Mexico during February, bringing the total to 10 in the first two months of the year, the non-governmental organizations Data Cívica reported this Friday. The number of homicides related to political violence rises to 36 when public officials and relatives of politicians are also considered, which are detailed in the report ‘Voting between bullets’ in February.

Notes:

[i] For more information on the potential criminal realignment in Mexico’s elections, see: Parker Asmann, “Mexico’s 2024 Election Could Spark Violent Criminal Realignments,” InSight Crime, 15 January 2024, https://insightcrime.org/news/mexico-2024-election-violent-criminal-realignments/

[ii] To read more about the project to track election violence by Data Cívica, see: “Voting Between Bullets, Understanding Criminal-Electoral Violence in Mexico,” https://votar-entre-balas.datacivica.org/

Image Information:

Image: Mexico has responded to security threats by deploying its army on the streets.
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/isan/3740048960 
Attribution: CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 DEED.

Venezuela Seeks To Rectify Deteriorating Relations With Iran

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Venezuela’s former Foreign Minister, Jorge Arreaza, visits Iran.

“Venezuela is rushing to meet the terms of a three-year alliance that has involved hundreds of millions of dollars in oil trades and contracts.”

Once considered to be one of the Maduro regime’s staunchest allies, the Venezuela-Iran relationship has entered a rocky period.[i] Beyond military cooperation, Iran has long provided critical support to the Maduro regime in the areas of sanctions evasion and diluents for crude oil refining. According to the first excerpted article from the Venezuelan daily El Nacional, the bilateral relationship began to deteriorate when the West partially lifted oil sanctions on Venezuela following pledges for freer and fairer presidential elections this year. The article reports that the Maduro regime shifted production and export to Western markets, falling woefully behind in its scheduled oil deliveries to Iran. The article also details that part of an earlier three-year agreement aimed at sanctions evasion saw Iran offload much of Venezuela’s sanctioned crude.[ii] The second excerpted article, from the business-focused Venezuelan news outlet Banca y Negocios, cites people familiar with the deal that helped boost Venezuela’s crude exports and mitigate fuel shortages while under previous sanctions. Under the deal, Iran also committed to renovating several of Venezuela’s large oil refineries. The Maduro regime’s decision to abandon the terms of its agreement with Iran has irked Iranian officials, according to the reporting by Banca y Negocios. At the same time, it speculates that the Maduro regime is motivated to return to the Iran deal as it anticipates the return of Western sanctions, having failed to comply with its prior commitments toward freer and fairer presidential elections. Returning to this agreement with Iran will be critical for the Maduro regime to survive the possible reimposition of Western sanctions on its oil sector.

Sources:

“Venezuela se apresura a mejorar su relación con Irán mientras se avecinan sanciones de EEUU (Venezuela rushes to improve its relationship with Iran as US sanctions loom),” El Nacional (Venezuelan daily focused on the politics of the Maduro regime), 13 March 2024. https://www.elnacional.com/economia/venezuela-se-apresura-a-mejorar-su-relacion-con-iran-mientras-se-avecinan-sanciones-de-ee-uu/  

Iran and Venezuela are trying to rebuild an oil alliance that began to crumble last year after Venezuela fell behind in oil trades…A review of PDVSA data and shipping documents shows that Venezuela fell behind on payments to Iran, a shortfall that worsened when the United States began issuing licenses in late 2022. Those authorizations led the state firm to reallocate shipments…to save the partnership, Venezuela is rushing to meet the terms of a three-year alliance that has involved hundreds of millions of dollars in oil trades and contracts. Nicolás Maduro’s government is trying to settle outstanding debt by accelerating deliveries of heavy crude oil and fuel shipments to Iran.

“Venezuela busca mejorar su relación con Irán tras presentar retrasos en el intercambio petrolero (Venezuela seeks to improve its relationship with Iran after presenting delays in the oil exchange),” Banca y Negocios (a Venezuelan digital portal focused on financial and economic reporting), 12 March 2024. https://www.bancaynegocios.com/venezuela-busca-mejorar-su-relacion-con-iran-tras-presentar-retrasos-en-el-intercambio-petrolero/    Six people familiar with the matter stated that the agreement between both nations helped boost crude oil exports and alleviate the fuel problem that Venezuela suffered…the possible reimposition of sanctions by the United States would make the alliance between Venezuela and Iran essential to keeping the Venezuelan oil sector afloat…Venezuela is rushing to comply with the agreement and pay off the debt, amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars in oil exchanges and contracts, by accelerating the delivery of heavy hydrocarbons and fuel to the nation located in the Middle East.

Notes:

[i] For more historical background on the importance of the bilateral relationship, see: Moises Rendón and Claudia Fernandez, “The Fabulous Five: How Foreign Actors Prop Up the Maduro Regime in Venezuela,” CSIS Policy Brief, 19 October 2020, https://www.csis.org/analysis/fabulous-five-how-foreign-actors-prop-maduro-regime-venezuela

[ii] For more information on the deal signed between Iran and Venezuela, see: Deisy Buitrago and Vivian Sequera, “Iran, Venezuela Eye Trade Increase, Sign Petrochemical Deal,” Reuters, 12 June 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/iranian-president-caracas-kicking-off-regional-tour-2023-06-12/

Image Information:

Image: Venezuela’s former Foreign Minister, Jorge Arreaza, visits Iran.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Venezuela%E2%80%99s_Top_Diplomat_Visits_Iran-9.jpg  
Attribution: CC-BY-4.0.