(Click image to download magazine.)
28 A COLD, SOGGY, BOGGY SLOG: GROUND FORCES IN HIGHER LATITUDE
COMBAT
By Dr. Lester W. Grau
34 RUSSIAN BATTALION TACTICAL GROUP MISSION TRAINING IN THE
ARCTIC
By Dr. Lester W. Grau & Dr. Charles K. Bartles
40 POLAR NIGHTS, WHITE NIGHTS, AND NORMAL DAYS AND NIGHTS:
ARCTIC GROUND TARGET IDENTIFICATION AND ENGAGEMENT
By Dr. Lester W. Grau
“The most important issue on today’s agenda is the fulfillment of President Putin’s instructions to increase shipping volumes on the Northern Sea Route to 80 million tons by the year 2024.”
According to the excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer,despite fighting in Ukraine and sanctions by the West, Russia continues to strongly push the expansion of the Northern Sea Route’s capacity. Most notably, the accompanying article notes that Russia seeks to expand from a shipment of 34 million tons of goods in 2022 to a projected 80 million tons by 2024. It also notes that Russia has set a target of implementing the construction of 41 new cargo vessels by 2030. In the past, President Putin has set increased shipping goals for the Northern Sea Route and, officially, they have been met. Yet, given the significantly ambitious increase from 34 million metric tons to 80 million metric tons, we do not know what goods are being shipped and who the customers are. Today, much of the Northern Sea Route shipping goes east to the Russian Far East and China; it also remains the case that many non-European countries are ready to expand trade with Russia regardless of its invasion of Ukraine. In terms of what will get shipped, given Russia’s natural resources and the never-ending need for sources of energy, much of this cargo will be liquified natural gas (LNG), coal, oil, timber, and processed metals. Grain shipments by barge up the Lena River to the Arctic Ocean and on to China have already been accomplished at a cheaper rate than rail. Still, it may be the case that the new proposed capacities might exceed demand. Annual increases of two to four million metric tons are achievable, but an increase to of the likes projected here would be unprecedented. If accomplished, though, any increase in shipping capacity could help Russia offset export losses due to ongoing sanctions.
Source:
Atle Staalesen, “Moscow assures it will not lower ambitions in Arctic,” The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 13 February 2023. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2023/02/moscow-assures-it-will-not-lower-ambitions-arctic
“The most important issue on today’s agenda is the fulfillment of President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin’s instructions to increase shipping volumes on the Northern Sea Route to 80 million tons by the year 2024,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister YuriTruter said as he on the 11th of February opened a meeting in the State Commission on Arctic Development.
In the room were representatives of key federal ministries, regional governments, and state companies. Western sanctions have caused certain difficulties in reaching the president’s objectives, the high-ranking government official admitted. But investment projects in the Arctic are still proceeding according to plans, he assured the group.
In 2022, a total of 34 million tons of goods was shipped on the route. “It is a good result,” Trutnev underlined, and explained that the original plan for the year was only 32 million tons.
Despite the war against Ukraine and the severe economic hardships facing the country, the Northern Sea Route remains a top priority for the Russian government.
The cabinet headed by Premier Mikhail Mishustin continues to aim for an unprecedented boost in Arctic shipping, and the ambitions outlined in the federal” Plan on the development of the Northern Sea Route” as adopted in August 2022 remains intact.
The document says shipping on the route is to increase to 80 million tons in 2024 and later to 150 million tons in 2030 and 220 million tons in 2035.
In order to reach the target, a total of 41 new cargo vessels must be built by 2030, the leader of the Arctic Commission argued in last week’s meeting. Trutnev also underlined that the goods capacity of seaports along the Northern Sea Route will increase to 36 million tons in 2023 and to 83 million tons in 2024.
Behind the port development stands nuclear power company Rosatom, that in 2022 completed the construction of the Utrenneye terminal in the Gulf of Ob. In 2024, Rosneft’s Sever Bay terminal will stand ready on the coast of the Kara Sea, and the same year — the nearby new coal terminal of the Severnaya Zvezda.
But there are looming financial troubles in the horizon. “I do not exclude that we will have to find new solutions to financing the operations, so that there appears no deficit of funds in any phases of development,” Trutnev told his commission colleagues.And despite the dramatic increase in federal deficit, the government official underlined that the state is ready to offer support. “If one of the companies will not have financing, that does not mean that it will be abandoned, [but] we must help,” Trutnev said.
“The addition is to Canada’s 2019 partial submission that claimed approximately 1.2 million square kilometers of the Arctic Ocean seabed and subsoil. ‘This addendum to that partial submission regarding the outer limits of the continental shelf in respect of the Arctic Ocean covers an additional area of continental shelf extending beyond the limits provided for in that partial submission, encompassing the full length of the Central Arctic Plateau…”
Canada recently filed a claim to the Arctic Ocean seabed encompassing the full length of the Central Arctic Plateau, including the Lomonosov Ridge. This most recent claim follows a previous Canadian claim made in 2019 that included up to 1.2 million square kilometers of ocean seabed and part of the Lomonosov Ridge. According to independent Norwegian news site The Barents Observer, Canada’s claims to Arctic territory involving the Lomonosov Ridge run counter to Russia’s earlier claim over much of that area. Canada’s claim also comes at a time when Russia’s relations with the West are severely strained. Normally the Arctic Council, comprised of states with a presence in the Arctic, would meet to help solve competing claims. However, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Arctic Council first ceased operating but is now meeting without Russia and the Russian president of the Arctic Council. It is unlikely that the overlapping claims in the Arctic will be solved diplomatically in the near term since the Arctic Council is dysfunctional and tensions between Russia and West, in this case Canada, are worsening.
Source:
Eil’is Quinn, “Canada extends continental shelf claim, increasing overlaps with Russia in Arctic,” The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 23 December 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2022/12/canada-extends-continental-shelf-claim-increasing-overlaps-russia-arctic
The addition is to Canada’s 2019 partial submission that claimed approximately 1.2 million square kilometers of the Arctic Ocean seabed and subsoil. “This addendum to that partial submission regarding the outer limits of the continental shelf in respect of the Arctic Ocean covers an additional area of continental shelf extending beyond the limits provided for in that partial submission, encompassing the full length of the Central Arctic Plateau,” the government said in the Dec.19 document filed with the U.N.’s Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf.
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) gives coastal states a 200 nautical mile continental shelf claim that allows countries the right to exploit resources in the seabed and subsoil of their respective areas. The activities could be anything from deep seabed mining and fishing to oil and gas exploration.
Canada has been working on gathering data to support its claims in the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans since 2003. But UNCLOS allows continental shelves to be extended if a state has scientific data to prove that particular underwater geological or geographical features are actually extensions of their continental shelves.
The Lomonosov Ridge is a kind of underwater mountain chain that extends across the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and is something that Canada, Russia and Denmark all claim is an extension of their respective continental shelves.
Canada’s new filing comes at a time of high tension between Russia and the West. In March, the seven western states on the Arctic Council paused their participation in the body’s work in protest against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saying the war undermined many of the founding principals of the forum, which include sovereignty and territorial integrity based on international law. In June, Canada, Finland, Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the United States said they’d resume limited council work in areas that did not include Russia.
Global Affairs Canada was not able to immediately reply to a request for comment on Thursday concerning Canada’s new Arctic claims and its interactions with Russia during the process. But in the addendum document, Canada says it had regular consultations with Russia, as it did with Denmark and the United States, countries with which Ottawa also has overlapping claims.
“During the preparation of this submission, regular consultations between Canada and the Russian Federation revealed overlaps in their respective continental shelves in the Arctic Ocean,” the addendum said.
“Through an exchange of letters, Canada and the Russian Federation reached an understanding that: When one State makes a submission to the Commission that includes the Arctic Ocean, the other State will promptly transmit a diplomatic note to the Secretary-General of the United Nations.”
In 2021, Russia filed a claim with the U.N.’s Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf that goes up to Canada’s exclusive economic zone in the Arctic. It takes the commission several years to study the scientific merits of claims filed. Afterwards, countries use the commission’s recommendations to negotiate final boundaries between themselves. Canada ratified UNCLOS in 2013.
“Ballistic missiles were launched both from a nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea and from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in Arkhangelsk region towards the Kura range on Kamchatka. Cruise missiles were launched toward targets in the Komi Republic from strategic bombers.”
In late October, Russia carried out a nuclear weapons exercise in the Arctic. According to the excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer, it is the second major nuclear-delivery test of Russia’s sea-land-air Triad in 2022. The previous exercise was conducted in February, prior to the current Russian incursion into Ukraine. President Putin oversaw the exercise, which included submarine, land, and bomber missile firings. The intended message is that Russia is a competent nuclear power in the Arctic. As the threat of the use of nuclear weapons circulates in the context of the Ukraine war, Russia’s nuclear delivery tests in the Arctic serve as a stark reminder to the world of its capabilities.
Source:
Thomas Nielsen, “Russia tested all legs of nuclear triad over the Arctic,” The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 26 October 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/10/russia-tested-all-legs-nuclear-triad-over-arctic
Ballistic missiles were launched both from a nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea and from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in Arkhangelsk region towards the Kura range on Kamchatka. Cruise missiles were launched toward targets in the Komi Republic from strategic bombers.
For the second time this year, President Vladimir Putin ordered a massive nuclear weapons exercise. Last time was a few days before the invasion of Ukraine in late February.
The October 26 strategic drill included all three legs of Russia’s nuclear triad; submarine, land-based missiles and long-range bomber planes.
“During the event, the level of preparedness of military command and control structures, and the skills of the leadership and operation staff in the troops were checked,” the Kremlin said in a statement.
The President’s office added that all tasks were fulfilled, all missiles reached their targets.
While Putin oversaw the exercise, his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov, gave the orders to the involved strategic nuclear forces.
“Two of Russia’s newest nuclear-powered submarines have completed a 5,500 nm voyage under the Arctic ice cap.”
Historically, the Russian Far East has not been a high priority on the Kremlin’s military spending list, but that is changing. According to independent Norwegian news site The Barents Observer, Russia has added two new nuclear-powered submarines to its Pacific Fleet. The Pacific Fleet now has three of the latest long-range nuclear-powered strategic Borei-class submarines, while the Northern Fleet has two. The second excerpted article from The Barents Observer reports that the Northern Fleet’s annual summer/autumn exercise continues as scheduled with amphibious assault landings, but no riverine exercise up the Yenisei River to the riverport of Dudinka and then overland to Norilsk. Riverine exercises are complicated, and according to the excerpted article, elements of the Arctic brigades have fought in Ukraine and many of the current soldiers and sailors of the brigades are new. Amphibious assault landings are a good starting point before attempting a riverine exercise in the Arctic.
Sources:
Thomas Nielsen, “Nuclear subs made trans-Arctic under-ice transfer from Barents to Pacific,”The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 28 September 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/09/nuclear-subs-made-trans-arctic-under-ice-transfer-barents-pacific
Two of Russia’s newest nuclear-powered submarines have completed a 5,500 nm voyage under the Arctic ice cap. Built at Sevmash shipyard in Severodvinsk and tested in the White- and Barents Seas, the two submarines “Novosibirsk” and “Knyaz Oleg” are now ready for combat patrols.
The inter-fleet transit from the Northern Fleet to the Pacific Fleet contributes a substantial strength to the submarine forces in the Russian Far East. “Knyaz Oleg” of the Borei-class carries 16 ballistic nuclear missiles, while the “Novosibirsk” is armed with some of the navy’s most modern long-range cruise missiles, torpedoes and mines.
Both submarines participated in the Umka-2022 naval exercise taking place in the Chucki Sea in September before sailing into Vilyuchinsk naval base near Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy according to the Defense Ministry.
There are now three Borei-class ballistic missile submarines in active service with the Pacific Fleet. The “Novosibirsk” is the first 4th generation Yasen-class multi-purpose sub to be deployed in the Pacific.
Thomas Nilsen, “Russia shows off Arctic Military Power”, The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 22 September 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/09/russia-shows-arctic-military-drill-amid-ukraine-war
The official press statement says nothing about how the mock enemy managed to get to Cape Chelyuskin. The cape is the northernmost tip of the Taymyr Peninsula, also known to be the northernmost coastline of the Eurasian mainland.
Here, between icebergs and frozen tundra, the soldiers of Russia’s Northern Fleet countered an imagined illegal armed sabotage reconnaissance group. The drill this week included landing amphibious assault forces supported by choppers and artillery fire from the destroyer “Admiral Levchenko” – the lead warship on the Arctic voyage.
September expeditions with exercises along the Northern Sea Route have been an annual highlight for the Russian navy over the last decade. This year, the voyage is supervised by Vice Admiral Oleg Golubev, Deputy Commander of the Northern Fleet.
Armored personnel carriers were brought to shore by “Aleksandr Otrakovsky”, the landing ship that last year sailed side-by-side in the Black Sea with the cruiser “Moskva”. That warship sank after being hit in Putin’s war off the coast of Ukraine earlier this year.
Troops now training for Arctic warfare on the top of the world come from the same infantry brigades that have lost hundreds of soldiers on the battlefields in Ukraine since Putin ordered them to invade on February 24th.
Thousands of kilometers from the violent fighting in Ukraine, the soldiers practiced tactical actions to capture the beach and made a five-kilometer march on the permafrost of the peninsula.
The navy ships set out from the Kola Bay on August 10 and have conducted navy drills at Franz Josef Land, near the offshore oil rig Priazlomnaya in the eastern Barents Sea and in the Kara Sea on their way to Severnaya Zemlya and the Laptev Sea where a drill took place at the Kotelny Island last week.
Locals were welcomed onboard to see the exhibitions of weaponry and told stories about how soldiers with the Northern Fleet are heroically fighting for the fatherland in Ukraine.
In August, Russia’s navy kicked off an exercise and a propaganda tour in the Arctic. As the first accompanying excerpted article from the independent Norwegian news site The Barents Observer describes, the Russian Northern Fleet concentrated in the Barents-Arctic region where there are western approaches to the Arctic Sea Route. The exercise included warships and submarines, but also support from air force and coastal air defense units with the aim of deterring an enemy attack from the Barents Sea against strategically important islands. These massive Arctic islands include Franz Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, with their nuclear, second-strike capabilities.
The second excerpted article from the Barents Observer reports that the Ivan Gren, one of the Northern Fleet’s newest large amphibious landing ships, was dispatched on an extended propaganda voyage to promote support for the “special military operation” in Ukraine. Loaded with military displays and an orchestra and choral group, the ship made several port calls along the Northern Sea Route over the course of two months. At a time when the Russian armed forces are consumed with the war in Ukraine, it is noteworthy that their attention to the Arctic is not diminished.
Sources:
Source: Thomas Nielsen, “Northern Fleet kicks off large Barents-Arctic naval exercise,” The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia),18 August 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/08/northern-fleet-kicks-large-barents-arctic-naval-exercise
More than 10 warships and submarines are at sea, including “Pyotr Velikye”, the Northern Fleet’s large nuclear-powered battle cruiser….The naval vessels are supported by the air force and coastal air defense units. The exercise scenario, according to the Russian navy headquarters, is deterring an enemy attack on Russia from the Barents Sea, as well as repelling attacks on the country’s Arctic islands.
Last week, a group of warships set out for the annual Arctic voyage. Those ships, including the destroyer “Admiral Levchenko” and the amphibious assault vessel “Aleksandr Otrakovsky” are currently far north in the Barents Sea, close to the shores of Franz Josef Land. Russia has, over the last decade, rearmed its Arctic archipelagos with new runways for heavy military planes and fighter jets and established missile defense systems aimed at ensuring access and control over the Northern Sea Route. Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya are both strategically important for protection of the bastion defense of the Barents Sea region, including the nuclear arsenal and second-strike capabilities…
Source: Thomas Nilsen, “Loaded with military propaganda, warship setting sail on Arctic voyage”, The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia),23 August 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/08/blessings-anti-fascist-congress-large-landing-ship-embarks-arctic-military
In his opening speech at the so-called first International Anti-Fascist Congress in the Patriot Park in Moscow on 20 August, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that “Ivan Gren” would embark on the agitation-propaganda cruise entitled “The Power is in Truth.” Shoigu said the tour will be a first-of-its-kind.“Within its framework, the “Ivan Gren” large landing ship will make a voyage along the Northern Sea Route and enter remote cities and garrisons.” Sergei Shoigu continued by calling on the international community to unite efforts in the fight against Nazism.
Up North in Severomorsk, where the voyage started, Deputy Commander of the Northern Fleet, Rear Admiral Igor Kurochkin, stated:“The main thing that we want to say with this move is that we warmly and sincerely support our servicemen who courageously and heroically solve the tasks of the special military operation.”
On board the “Ivan Gren” in Severomorsk, were schoolchildren from the Murmansk Nakhimov Naval School and teenagers with Yunarmiya, the military-patriotic movement associated with, and financed by Russia’s Defense Ministry. First port call for the agitation-propaganda sailing was Kandalaksha on the southern shores of the Kola Peninsula. Locals were welcomed onboard to see the exhibitions of weaponry and told stories about how soldiers with the Northern Fleet are heroically fighting for the fatherland in Ukraine.
On display in the hangars and rooms that normally carry tanks and attack helicopters are models of nuclear submarines, aircraft, warships and other military gear. The Northern Fleet’s naval orchestra will perform patriotic compositions and the “Ivan Gren” even bring a song and dance ensemble from Severomorsk.
Second stop on the route was Arkhangelsk, from August 28 to September 1. Thereafter, the ship sails north across the Barents Sea to Belushaya Guba, the largest military settlement on Novaya Zemlya where Russia in the course of the last few years has modernized the airfield to accommodate fighter jets and anti-aircraft missile systems. The second stage of the voyage starts on September 19 and will take place in the western part of the Northern Sea Route with Dikson as first stop and Dudinka by the Yenisei River as next port call.
“As part of a major upgrade of Northern Fleet airstrips in the European Arctic, the Severomorsk-2 that was shut down in 1998 will now be reconstructed and reopened.”
According to the independent Norwegian news service The Barents Observer, Russia is reconstructing airfields in the Arctic despite other defense spending needs, suggesting the Kremlin considers the Severomorsk airfields a high priority.Severomorsk-2 is adjacent to the main airfield, Severomorsk-1, and is close to the city of Murmansk. This is an indication that it is not an emergency field but is within the existing air defense umbrella of the Northern Fleet. Renovation work on Severomorsk-1 was completed in 2018, allowing it to accept all aircraft, including the heaviest transports. Emperor Nicholas II International Airport supports commercial aviation in the Murmansk region.
Source:
Thomas Nielsen, “Abandoned military airport on Kola will be reconstructed”, The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian internet news service in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 13 June 2022.
As part of a major upgrade of Northern Fleet airstrips in the European Arctic, the Severomorsk-2 airfield that was shut down in 1998 will now be reconstructed and reopened. Comprehensive investments are needed. After being abandoned 25 years ago, most of the airfield facilities and gear on taxiways were looted. The 1,800-meter runway is still intact, but in bad shape with severe cracks even visible from satellite images like Google Earth.
In recent years, the runway has been used for smaller UAVs operated by Russia’s Northern Fleet whose Headquarters is located in the city of Severomorsk, seven kilometers to the northeast of the former air base. Severomorsk-2 is 11 kilometers northeast of Murmansk.
Northern Fleet Commander, Admiral Aleksandr Moiseev, included Severomorsk-2 among Russian Arctic military airfields to be reconstructed or newly-built by 2030. “The development and construction of airstrip network in the Arctic area continues. The development plan for the network until 2030 includes construction of two [airstrips] in Nagurskoye and Temp, as well as reconstruction of seven airstrips in Severomorsk-1, Severomorsk-2, Severomorsk-3, Rogachevo, Talagi and Kipleovo,” The former seaplane facility at Safonovo, south of Severomorsk in the Kola Bay, will also be re-established.
No details were provided as to which aircraft would be based at the reconstructed Severomorsk-2. Upgrade of the airstrip could be a preparation for more advanced UAVs that Russia has said will play an important role in future military plans. Today, the Northern Fleet has two major air bases on the Kola Peninsula, Severomorsk-1 and Severomorsk-3.
Located on the outskirts of Severomorsk city, Severomorsk-1 air base has a 3,500-meter-long runway and is home to maritime surveillance aircraft (Il-38), and anti-submarine helicopters (Ka-27).
Severomorsk-3 is the air base for the Northern Fleet’s fighter jets and is located 28 kilometers east of Murmansk. There are two other military air bases on the Kola Peninsula as well, the Olenya near Olenogorsk which is home to long-range Tu-22 bombers and the Monchegorsk with fighter jets.
“The ‘Belgorod’ special purpose submarine, carrier of the so-called doomsday Poseidon drones, will be in experimental operation with the Northern Fleet before later to serve in the Pacific Fleet.”
According to the excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer, Russia recently announced that its newest nuclear-capable research submarine, the Belgorod, will begin “experimental operation” with the Northern Fleet in Arctic waters. Many of Russia’s research submarines begin their work with the Arctic portion of the Russian Navy’s specialized submarine and surface fleet designed for espionage, deep-sea rescue, and special operations. However, according to the article, the Belgorod’s real mission is to carry up to six Poseidon autonomous nuclear-powered underwater attack drones. The Belgorod is likely to join the Pacific Fleet as part of Russia’s nuclear triad when the Poseidon drone system is deployable.
Source:
Thomas Nilsen, “World’s longest nuclear submarine handed over to the ‘Russian Navy’,” The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian internet news service in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 8 July 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/climate-crisis/2021/06/looming-arctic-collapse-more-40-north-russian-buildings-are-starting-crumble
An official press release posted by the Sevmash submarine yard on 8 July says the “Belgorod” (K-239) is a “research submarine”. In fact, the vessel is built to carry one of the craziest weapons of mass destruction mankind ever has seen: The Poseidon is an autonomous, nuclear-powered underwater drone that can deliver its nuclear payloads from deep under water after crossing distances like the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean.
Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Nikolai Evmenov, stated: “… this is a significant day for us” as … advanced achievements of science and the latest construction technologies were applied…. “The submarine “Belgorod” opens up new opportunities for Russia in conducting various studies, allows conducting diverse scientific expeditions and rescue operations in the most remote areas of the World Ocean.” … The statement also adds that the submarine can conduct search and rescue operations in deep waters as it carries autonomous unmanned underwater vehicles. There is no mention of the Poseidon drone weapon armament.
With the U.S. developing an anti-ballistic missile defense system, Russia started to develop a deep-diving response capability. The Poseidon is a 24-meter-long torpedo-shaped vehicle with an estimated range of 10,000 km and can travel at speeds of 100 knots down to a maximum depth of 1,000 meters. Powered by a small nuclear reactor, it could be armed with a megaton nuclear warhead.
The submarine likely carries six Poseidon drones. The submarine also serves as a mother vessel for a deep-diving midget nuclear-powered submarine, like the infamous Losharik, a mini-submarine that got the world’s attention in July 2019 when its batteries caught fire and all 14 officers on board died.
The “Belgorod” has an elongated hull of what was originally meant to be an Oscar-II class multi-purpose submarine, a sister vessel to the ill-fated “Kursk” submarine that sank in the Barents Sea during a naval exercise in August 2000. The hull of the submarine was laid down in 1992, but only twenty years later, in 2012, the Defense Ministry decided to use the hull to construct this giant special purpose vessel. With a hull elongated by 29 meters to 184-meters, the one-of-a-kind vessel is longer than the world’s largest submarine, the Soviet-built Typhoon-class.
The “Belgorod” launched in April 2019, the “Belgorod” started sea trials in the White Sea last summer. The Russian Navy has not announced where the “Belgorod” will be based for the period it will be in experimental operation with the Northern Fleet. It could be Severodvinsk where the Poseidon drone development will be conducted or at Olenya Bay on the Kola Peninsula where the other special-purpose submarines of GUGI, Russia’s Main Directorate for Deep Sea Research, are based. Indications are that the long-term assignment of the Belgorod will be with the Pacific Fleet.
“The country’s revised Marine Doctrine includes a high stress on use of civilian ships and infrastructure for military purposes.”
According to an article from Norway-based The Barents Observer, Russia is revising its marine doctrine to easily integrate civilian ships for military tasks when necessary. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov noted that the revisions are necessary in the current “geopolitical and military-strategical world situation.” Borisov blames the “hybrid war of the Collective West” for unprecedented actions against Russia and considers the Russian navy and an update to the marine doctrine as essential for Russia’s survival.
According to the revisions, the navy will include civilian ships and crews and provide functionality of maritime infrastructure in times of war. As the article points out, the use of civilian ships during war is not unusual or unique to Russia, although Russia has a long history of calling civilian ships into military service when necessary. The current revisions will make it easier for Russia’s navy to appropriate Russia’s civilian nuclear powered icebreakers, likely giving the Russian navy an advantage in Arctic waters.
Source:
Atle Staalesen, “Russia outlines militarization of fishing fleet and icebreakers,” The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian internet news service in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia, 24 May 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/05/russia-militarizes-its-fishing-fleet-and-icebreakers
The country’s revised Marine Doctrine includes a high stress on use of civilian ships and infrastructure for military purposes. “The revisions of the Marine Doctrine take into account changes in the geopolitical and military-strategical world situation,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov underlined in a meeting in the government Marine Board late May. The update of the strategic planning document comes in the wake of Russia’s war against Ukraine and its unprecedented isolation in international affairs.
According to Borisov, the Navy is now becoming even more important for Russia. “Considering the total hybrid war of the Collective West against our country, the unprecedented sanctions and the special operation in Ukraine, the strengthening of national security is relevant as never before,” the Deputy Prime Minister stated as he opened the meeting. The body includes top government officials from several ministries and federal agencies, as well as military representatives.
According to the high-ranking government official with special responsibilities for the military-industrial complex, the new and updated document “to the full extent meets current challenges and threats. It is aimed not on confrontation, but on enhanced national security in the area of maritime operations [and] a significantly reduced dependency on external influence and markets in all fields of maritime activities.” Among the revisions highlighted in the updated doctrine is a higher level of engagement of civilian ships in military activities. According to the government, several “principally new aspects of the doctrine concerns mobilization preparations and preparedness. This will allow for the inclusion in the Navy of civilian ships and crews and provide functionality of maritime infrastructure in times of war.”
It is hardly a new phenomenon that civilian ships have a role in national security preparedness, as well as military conflicts, and Russia has a long experience in applying non-military ships for military purposes. But the new federal document clearly prepares the ground for a more systematic approach. Potentially, Russia can choose to apply a large number of trawlers and fishing vessels for military purposes. Many of them are active in international waters, including along the Norwegian coast. Russia can also choose to militarize its powerful nuclear-powered icebreakers, the vessels that autonomously are capably of breaking through the thickest sea-ice of the Arctic. Ultimately, it could also designate a stronger military role to its research vessels. That could include also the brand new “Severny Polyus[RG1] ,” the ship that is designed for autonomous drifting in Arctic sea-ice for up to two years.
Russia’s current Marine Doctrine was adopted in 2017 and covers the period until 2030. The document highlights the need for a technological modernization of Russian ships and development of transport corridors like the Northern Sea Route. According to Yuri Borisov, the Russian Navy will in the course of 2022 get a total of 20 new military ships, as well as five motorboats and 21 support vessels.
“Moscow’s war against Ukraine is having a large toll on one of the most remote parts of the planet. The region that over the past years has been a top priority for the Russian government is now about to face a serious economic setback. Several of the new oil and gas projects, mines and infrastructure initiatives that until recently have been under development might now come to a grinding halt.”
According to the accompanying article from Norwegian independent news outlet The Barents Observer, the West’s economic measures against Russia will slow or stop most major Russian Arctic development projects. Russia’s past response to Western sanctions has been to become more self-reliant, which requires financial outlays and time. According to the article, Russia will find it difficult to acquire the partnerships and financing necessary to become self-reliant and continue its current pace of Arctic development. Thus, Russian ambitions in the Arctic are certain to suffer in addition to all the other consequences Russia will face because of Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.
Source:
Atle Staalesen, “Big Collapse looms Over Russian Arctic Policy,” The Barents Observer (Norwegian independent news source), 30 March 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2022/03/big-collapse-looms-over-russian-arctic-policy
Moscow’s war against Ukraine is having a large toll on one of the most remote parts of the planet. The region that over the past years has been a top priority for the Russian government is now about to face a serious economic setback. Several of the new oil and gas projects, mines and infrastructure initiatives that until recently have been under development might now come to a grinding halt.
Natural Gas Company Novatek confirmed that it will stop the development of its liquefied natural gas projects in the region. It will only complete the first train of the Arctic LNG 2. [An LNG train is a liquefied natural gas plants liquefaction and purification facility…]. According to original plans, the project’s first train is to come into production in 2023 and deliver 6.6 million tons of LNG to the market. The project train number two and three that were to be ready in 2024 and 2025 respectively will be postponed. The announcement comes after French project partner Total made clear that it is halting all new investmentsin Russia. Other international oil and gas companies have made similar announcements. Among them are Baker Hughes, Halliburton and Schlumberger.
Novatek is fully dependent on Western technology to follow up its major Arctic LNG projects. Both the Yamal LNG and the Arctic LNG were built with foreign equipment provided by companies such as Linde, Siemens and Baker Hughes. Ship traffic data indicate that there is still a high level of activity around the Arctic LNG 2 project port of Utrenneye. This week, two nuclear-powered icebreakers escorted cargo vessels to site….
The new western sanctions against Russia will affect also several other industrial projects. State oil company Rosneft is in the process of developing what is due to become the biggest oil project ever in the Arctic, and is dependent on western technology to build both infrastructure and ice-class tankers. Also the investment basis of the project is now also increasing unclear as project partner Trafigura Group says that it is “reviewing its shareholding in Vostok Oil LLC.”
The Vostok Oil includes the building of 13 gas and oil fields in the remote Taymyr tundra and the annual production of more than 100 million tons by 2030.
On the Russian Arctic agenda is also the building of several mines, among them the Syradasaysky coal project in Taymyr. This project is dependent on western tech, at least for the building of ice-class bulk carriers that can export the coal.
Ship traffic data indicate that there is still a high level of activity around the project seaport of Yenisei, despite the difficult ice conditions in the area.
As industrial projects come to a halt, Russia will not be able to meet its ambitious plans for Arctic shipping. The objective set by President Putin in 2018 is the annual shipments of at least 80 million tons of goods on the Northern Sea Route by 2024.
The country’s Minister of the Far East and Arctic Aleksei Chekunkov during a visit to Murmansk in early March told local media that the objectives remain unchanged. But he appears to shut his eyes for the ongoing developments that is about to fully isolate Russia in international relations and trade.
It is now increasingly unclear also whether Russia will be able to meet its plan on nuclear icebreaker construction. The country intends to build a fleet of up to six LK-60 icebreakers in the course of the decade, as well as the super-powerful Lider. But the Baltic and Zvezda shipyards will hardly be able to complete construction without western technology.
The Russian government in 2018 presented a 5-year plan for Arctic developments that included investment up to 5.5 trillion rubles by year 2024 and 13.5 trillion rubles by 2050. That document now appears like nothing but a piece of paper.
In addition to the standstill in its grand industrial projects, Russia is blocked in international bodies of regional cooperation. Russia expected dividends from its two-year presidency in the Arctic Council and planned as many as a 88 various events.The Ukraine fighting affects the plans and projections and the subsequent halt in international Arctic cooperation. On March 4, the Arctic Council announced that it had decided to “pause all official meetings of the Council and its subsidiary bodies until further notice.” The Barents Council followed with the same decision.