Author Archives: Dr Lester Grau

Russia Conducts Nuclear-Delivery Tests in the Arctic

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“Ballistic missiles were launched both from a nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea and from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in Arkhangelsk region towards the Kura range on Kamchatka.  Cruise missiles were launched toward targets in the Komi Republic from strategic bombers.”

In late October, Russia carried out a nuclear weapons exercise in the Arctic. According to the excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer, it is the second major nuclear-delivery test of Russia’s sea-land-air Triad in 2022. The previous exercise was conducted in February, prior to the current Russian incursion into Ukraine.  President Putin oversaw the exercise, which included submarine, land, and bomber missile firings. The intended message is that Russia is a competent nuclear power in the Arctic. As the threat of the use of nuclear weapons circulates in the context of the Ukraine war, Russia’s nuclear delivery tests in the Arctic serve as a stark reminder to the world of its capabilities.

Source:

Thomas Nielsen, “Russia tested all legs of nuclear triad over the Arctic,” The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 26 October 2022.  https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/10/russia-tested-all-legs-nuclear-triad-over-arctic

Ballistic missiles were launched both from a nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea and from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in Arkhangelsk region towards the Kura range on Kamchatka.  Cruise missiles were launched toward targets in the Komi Republic from strategic bombers.

For the second time this year, President Vladimir Putin ordered a massive nuclear weapons exercise.  Last time was a few days before the invasion of Ukraine in late February.

The October 26 strategic drill included all three legs of Russia’s nuclear triad; submarine, land-based missiles and long-range bomber planes.

“During the event, the level of preparedness of military command and control structures, and the skills of the leadership and operation staff in the troops were checked,” the Kremlin said in a statement.

The President’s office added that all tasks were fulfilled, all missiles reached their targets.

While Putin oversaw the exercise, his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov, gave the orders to the involved strategic nuclear forces.

Russia Conducts Submarine Sea Trials and Amphibious Landing Exercise in Arctic

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“Two of Russia’s newest nuclear-powered submarines have completed a 5,500 nm voyage under the Arctic ice cap.”

Historically, the Russian Far East has not been a high priority on the Kremlin’s military spending list, but that is changing. According to independent Norwegian news site The Barents Observer, Russia has added two new nuclear-powered submarines to its Pacific Fleet. The Pacific Fleet now has three of the latest long-range nuclear-powered strategic Borei-class submarines, while the Northern Fleet has two. The second excerpted article from The Barents Observer reports that the Northern Fleet’s annual summer/autumn exercise continues as scheduled with amphibious assault landings, but no riverine exercise up the Yenisei River to the riverport of Dudinka and then overland to Norilsk. Riverine exercises are complicated, and according to the excerpted article, elements of the Arctic brigades have fought in Ukraine and many of the current soldiers and sailors of the brigades are new. Amphibious assault landings are a good starting point before attempting a riverine exercise in the Arctic.

Sources:

Thomas Nielsen, “Nuclear subs made trans-Arctic under-ice transfer from Barents to Pacific,”The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 28 September 2022.  https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/09/nuclear-subs-made-trans-arctic-under-ice-transfer-barents-pacific

Two of Russia’s newest nuclear-powered submarines have completed a 5,500 nm voyage under the Arctic ice cap. Built at Sevmash shipyard in Severodvinsk and tested in the White- and Barents Seas, the two submarines “Novosibirsk” and “Knyaz Oleg” are now ready for combat patrols.

The inter-fleet transit from the Northern Fleet to the Pacific Fleet contributes a substantial strength to the submarine forces in the Russian Far East. “Knyaz Oleg” of the Borei-class carries 16 ballistic nuclear missiles, while the “Novosibirsk” is armed with some of the navy’s most modern long-range cruise missiles, torpedoes and mines.

Both submarines participated in the Umka-2022 naval exercise taking place in the Chucki Sea in September before sailing into Vilyuchinsk naval base near Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy according to the Defense Ministry.

There are now three Borei-class ballistic missile submarines in active service with the Pacific Fleet. The “Novosibirsk” is the first 4th generation Yasen-class multi-purpose sub to be deployed in the Pacific. 

Thomas Nilsen, “Russia shows off Arctic Military Power”, The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 22 September 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/09/russia-shows-arctic-military-drill-amid-ukraine-war

The official press statement says nothing about how the mock enemy managed to get to Cape Chelyuskin. The cape is the northernmost tip of the Taymyr Peninsula, also known to be the northernmost coastline of the Eurasian mainland.

Here, between icebergs and frozen tundra, the soldiers of Russia’s Northern Fleet countered an imagined illegal armed sabotage reconnaissance group. The drill this week included landing amphibious assault forces supported by choppers and artillery fire from the destroyer “Admiral Levchenko” – the lead warship on the Arctic voyage.

September expeditions with exercises along the Northern Sea Route have been an annual highlight for the Russian navy over the last decade. This year, the voyage is supervised by Vice Admiral Oleg Golubev, Deputy Commander of the Northern Fleet.

Armored personnel carriers were brought to shore by “Aleksandr Otrakovsky”, the landing ship that last year sailed side-by-side in the Black Sea with the cruiser “Moskva”. That warship sank after being hit in Putin’s war off the coast of Ukraine earlier this year.

Troops now training for Arctic warfare on the top of the world come from the same infantry brigades that have lost hundreds of soldiers on the battlefields in Ukraine since Putin ordered them to invade on February 24th.

Thousands of kilometers from the violent fighting in Ukraine, the soldiers practiced tactical actions to capture the beach and made a five-kilometer march on the permafrost of the peninsula.

The navy ships set out from the Kola Bay on August 10 and have conducted navy drills at Franz Josef Land, near the offshore oil rig Priazlomnaya in the eastern Barents Sea and in the Kara Sea on their way to Severnaya Zemlya and the Laptev Sea where a drill took place at the Kotelny Island last week. 

Russia Conducts Arctic Naval Maneuver and Propaganda Tour Along Northern Sea Route

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Locals were welcomed onboard to see the exhibitions of weaponry and told stories about how soldiers with the Northern Fleet are heroically fighting for the fatherland in Ukraine.

In August, Russia’s navy kicked off an exercise and a propaganda tour in the Arctic. As the first accompanying excerpted article from the independent Norwegian news site The Barents Observer describes, the Russian Northern Fleet concentrated in the Barents-Arctic region where there are western approaches to the Arctic Sea Route. The exercise included warships and submarines, but also support from air force and coastal air defense units with the aim of deterring an enemy attack from the Barents Sea against strategically important islands. These massive Arctic islands include Franz Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, with their nuclear, second-strike capabilities.

The second excerpted article from the Barents Observer reports that the Ivan Gren, one of the Northern Fleet’s newest large amphibious landing ships, was dispatched on an extended propaganda voyage to promote support for the “special military operation” in Ukraine. Loaded with military displays and an orchestra and choral group, the ship made several port calls along the Northern Sea Route over the course of two months. At a time when the Russian armed forces are consumed with the war in Ukraine, it is noteworthy that their attention to the Arctic is not diminished.

Sources:

Source: Thomas Nielsen, “Northern Fleet kicks off large Barents-Arctic naval exercise,” The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia),18 August 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/08/northern-fleet-kicks-large-barents-arctic-naval-exercise

More than 10 warships and submarines are at sea, including “Pyotr Velikye”, the Northern Fleet’s large nuclear-powered battle cruiser….The naval vessels are supported by the air force and coastal air defense units.  The exercise scenario, according to the Russian navy headquarters, is deterring an enemy attack on Russia from the Barents Sea, as well as repelling attacks on the country’s Arctic islands. 

Last week, a group of warships set out for the annual Arctic voyage. Those ships, including the destroyer “Admiral Levchenko” and the amphibious assault vessel “Aleksandr Otrakovsky” are currently far north in the Barents Sea, close to the shores of Franz Josef Land. Russia has, over the last decade, rearmed its Arctic archipelagos with new runways for heavy military planes and fighter jets and established missile defense systems aimed at ensuring access and control over the Northern Sea Route. Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya are both strategically important for protection of the bastion defense of the Barents Sea region, including the nuclear arsenal and second-strike capabilities…

            Source:  Thomas Nilsen, “Loaded with military propaganda, warship setting sail on Arctic voyage”, The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian news site in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia),23 August 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/08/blessings-anti-fascist-congress-large-landing-ship-embarks-arctic-military

In his opening speech at the so-called first International Anti-Fascist Congress in the Patriot Park in Moscow on 20 August, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that “Ivan Gren” would embark on the agitation-propaganda cruise entitled “The Power is in Truth.”  Shoigu said the tour will be a first-of-its-kind.“Within its framework, the “Ivan Gren” large landing ship will make a voyage along the Northern Sea Route and enter remote cities and garrisons.”  Sergei Shoigu continued by calling on the international community to unite efforts in the fight against Nazism.

Up North in Severomorsk, where the voyage started, Deputy Commander of the Northern Fleet, Rear Admiral Igor Kurochkin, stated:“The main thing that we want to say with this move is that we warmly and sincerely support our servicemen who courageously and heroically solve the tasks of the special military operation.”

On board the “Ivan Gren” in Severomorsk, were schoolchildren from the Murmansk Nakhimov Naval School and teenagers with Yunarmiya, the military-patriotic movement associated with, and financed by Russia’s Defense Ministry. First port call for the agitation-propaganda sailing was Kandalaksha on the southern shores of the Kola Peninsula.  Locals were welcomed onboard to see the exhibitions of weaponry and told stories about how soldiers with the Northern Fleet are heroically fighting for the fatherland in Ukraine.

On display in the hangars and rooms that normally carry tanks and attack helicopters are models of nuclear submarines, aircraft, warships and other military gear.  The Northern Fleet’s naval orchestra will perform patriotic compositions and the “Ivan Gren” even bring a song and dance ensemble from Severomorsk.

Second stop on the route was Arkhangelsk, from August 28 to September 1.  Thereafter, the ship sails north across the Barents Sea to Belushaya Guba, the largest military settlement on Novaya Zemlya where Russia in the course of the last few years has modernized the airfield to accommodate fighter jets and anti-aircraft missile systems.   The second stage of the voyage starts on September 19 and will take place in the western part of the Northern Sea Route with Dikson as first stop and Dudinka by the Yenisei River as next port call.

Russia Rebuilding Military Airfields in the Arctic 

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“As part of a major upgrade of Northern Fleet airstrips in the European Arctic, the Severomorsk-2 that was shut down in 1998 will now be reconstructed and reopened.” 

According to the independent Norwegian news service The Barents Observer, Russia is reconstructing airfields in the Arctic despite other defense spending needs, suggesting the Kremlin considers the Severomorsk airfields a high priority.Severomorsk-2 is adjacent to the main airfield, Severomorsk-1, and is close to the city of Murmansk.  This is an indication that it is not an emergency field but is within the existing air defense umbrella of the Northern Fleet.  Renovation work on Severomorsk-1 was completed in 2018, allowing it to accept all aircraft, including the heaviest transports.  Emperor Nicholas II International Airport supports commercial aviation in the Murmansk region.  

Source:

Thomas Nielsen, “Abandoned military airport on Kola will be reconstructed”, The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian internet news service in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 13 June 2022. 

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/06/abandoned-military-airport-kola-will-reconstructed

As part of a major upgrade of Northern Fleet airstrips in the European Arctic, the Severomorsk-2 airfield that was shut down in 1998 will now be reconstructed and reopened.  Comprehensive investments are needed.  After being abandoned 25 years ago, most of the airfield facilities and gear on taxiways were looted.  The 1,800-meter runway is still intact, but in bad shape with severe cracks even visible from satellite images like Google Earth. 

In recent years, the runway has been used for smaller UAVs operated by Russia’s Northern Fleet whose Headquarters is located in the city of Severomorsk, seven kilometers to the northeast of the former air base.  Severomorsk-2 is 11 kilometers northeast of Murmansk. 

Northern Fleet Commander, Admiral Aleksandr Moiseev, included Severomorsk-2 among Russian Arctic military airfields to be reconstructed or newly-built by 2030.  “The development and construction of airstrip network in the Arctic area continues. The development plan for the network until 2030 includes construction of two [airstrips] in Nagurskoye and Temp, as well as reconstruction of seven airstrips in Severomorsk-1, Severomorsk-2, Severomorsk-3, Rogachevo, Talagi and Kipleovo,” The former seaplane facility at Safonovo, south of Severomorsk in the Kola Bay, will also be re-established.  

No details were provided as to which aircraft would be based at the reconstructed Severomorsk-2.  Upgrade of the airstrip could be a preparation for more advanced UAVs that Russia has said will play an important role in future military plans.  Today, the Northern Fleet has two major air bases on the Kola Peninsula, Severomorsk-1 and Severomorsk-3. 

Located on the outskirts of Severomorsk city, Severomorsk-1 air base has a 3,500-meter-long runway and is home to maritime surveillance aircraft (Il-38), and anti-submarine helicopters (Ka-27). 

Severomorsk-3 is the air base for the Northern Fleet’s fighter jets and is located 28 kilometers east of Murmansk. There are two other military air bases on the Kola Peninsula as well, the Olenya near Olenogorsk which is home to long-range Tu-22 bombers and the Monchegorsk with fighter jets.

Russia’s Newest Nuclear Submarine Joins Northern Fleet

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“The ‘Belgorod’ special purpose submarine, carrier of the so-called doomsday Poseidon drones, will be in experimental operation with the Northern Fleet before later to serve in the Pacific Fleet.”

According to the excerpted article from Norway-based The Barents Observer, Russia recently announced that its newest nuclear-capable research submarine, the Belgorod, will begin “experimental operation” with the Northern Fleet in Arctic waters.  Many of Russia’s research submarines begin their work with the Arctic portion of the Russian Navy’s specialized submarine and surface fleet designed for espionage, deep-sea rescue, and special operations.  However, according to the article, the Belgorod’s real mission is to carry up to six Poseidon autonomous nuclear-powered underwater attack drones.  The Belgorod is likely to join the Pacific Fleet as part of Russia’s nuclear triad when the Poseidon drone system is deployable.

Source:

Thomas Nilsen, “World’s longest nuclear submarine handed over to the ‘Russian Navy’,” The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian internet news service in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia), 8 July 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/climate-crisis/2021/06/looming-arctic-collapse-more-40-north-russian-buildings-are-starting-crumble

An official press release posted by the Sevmash submarine yard on 8 July says the “Belgorod” (K-239) is a “research submarine”.  In fact, the vessel is built to carry one of the craziest weapons of mass destruction mankind ever has seen:  The Poseidon is an autonomous, nuclear-powered underwater drone that can deliver its nuclear payloads from deep under water after crossing distances like the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean.

Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Nikolai Evmenov, stated: “… this is a significant day for us” as … advanced achievements of science and the latest construction technologies were applied….  “The submarine “Belgorod” opens up new opportunities for Russia in conducting various studies, allows conducting diverse scientific expeditions and rescue operations in the most remote areas of the World Ocean.”  … The statement also adds that the submarine can conduct search and rescue operations in deep waters as it carries autonomous unmanned underwater vehicles. There is no mention of the Poseidon drone weapon armament.

With the U.S. developing an anti-ballistic missile defense system, Russia started to develop a deep-diving response capability.  The Poseidon is a 24-meter-long torpedo-shaped vehicle with an estimated range of 10,000 km and can travel at speeds of 100 knots down to a maximum depth of 1,000 meters.  Powered by a small nuclear reactor, it could be armed with a megaton nuclear warhead.

The submarine likely carries six Poseidon drones.  The submarine also serves as a mother vessel for a deep-diving midget nuclear-powered submarine, like the infamous Losharik, a mini-submarine that got the world’s attention in July 2019 when its batteries caught fire and all 14 officers on board died. 

The “Belgorod” has an elongated hull of what was originally meant to be an Oscar-II class multi-purpose submarine, a sister vessel to the ill-fated “Kursk” submarine that sank in the Barents Sea during a naval exercise in August 2000.   The hull of the submarine was laid down in 1992, but only twenty years later, in 2012, the Defense Ministry decided to use the hull to construct this giant special purpose vessel.  With a hull elongated by 29 meters to 184-meters, the one-of-a-kind vessel is longer than the world’s largest submarine, the Soviet-built Typhoon-class. 

The “Belgorod” launched in April 2019, the “Belgorod” started sea trials in the White Sea last summer.  The Russian Navy has not announced where the “Belgorod” will be based for the period it will be in experimental operation with the Northern Fleet.  It could be Severodvinsk where the Poseidon drone development will be conducted or at Olenya Bay on the Kola Peninsula where the other special-purpose submarines of GUGI, Russia’s Main Directorate for Deep Sea Research, are based.  Indications are that the long-term assignment of the Belgorod will be with the Pacific Fleet.

Russia Revising Marine Doctrine To Use Civilian Ships for Military Purposes

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“The country’s revised Marine Doctrine includes a high stress on use of civilian ships and infrastructure for military purposes.”

According to an article from Norway-based The Barents Observer, Russia is revising its marine doctrine to easily integrate civilian ships for military tasks when necessary.  Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov noted that the revisions are necessary in the current “geopolitical and military-strategical world situation.”  Borisov blames the “hybrid war of the Collective West” for unprecedented actions against Russia and considers the Russian navy and an update to the marine doctrine as essential for Russia’s survival.

According to the revisions, the navy will include civilian ships and crews and provide functionality of maritime infrastructure in times of war.  As the article points out, the use of civilian ships during war is not unusual or unique to Russia, although Russia has a long history of calling civilian ships into military service when necessary.  The current revisions will make it easier for Russia’s navy to appropriate Russia’s civilian nuclear powered icebreakers, likely giving the Russian navy an advantage in Arctic waters.

Source:

Atle Staalesen, “Russia outlines militarization of fishing fleet and icebreakers,” The Barents Observer (independent Norwegian internet news service in Russian and English currently blocked in Russia, 24 May 2022. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/05/russia-militarizes-its-fishing-fleet-and-icebreakers

The country’s revised Marine Doctrine includes a high stress on use of civilian ships and infrastructure for military purposes.  “The revisions of the Marine Doctrine take into account changes in the geopolitical and military-strategical world situation,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov underlined in a meeting in the government Marine Board late May.  The update of the strategic planning document comes in the wake of Russia’s war against Ukraine and its unprecedented isolation in international affairs.

According to Borisov, the Navy is now becoming even more important for Russia.  “Considering the total hybrid war of the Collective West against our country, the unprecedented sanctions and the special operation in Ukraine, the strengthening of national security is relevant as never before,” the Deputy Prime Minister stated as he opened the meeting.  The body includes top government officials from several ministries and federal agencies, as well as military representatives.

According to the high-ranking government official with special responsibilities for the military-industrial complex, the new and updated document “to the full extent meets current challenges and threats.  It is aimed not on confrontation, but on enhanced national security in the area of maritime operations [and] a significantly reduced dependency on external influence and markets in all fields of maritime activities.”  Among the revisions highlighted in the updated doctrine is a higher level of engagement of civilian ships in military activities.  According to the government, several “principally new aspects of the doctrine concerns mobilization preparations and preparedness.  This will allow for the inclusion in the Navy of civilian ships and crews and provide functionality of maritime infrastructure in times of war.”

It is hardly a new phenomenon that civilian ships have a role in national security preparedness, as well as military conflicts, and Russia has a long experience in applying non-military ships for military purposes.  But the new federal document clearly prepares the ground for a more systematic approach.  Potentially, Russia can choose to apply a large number of trawlers and fishing vessels for military purposes.  Many of them are active in international waters, including along the Norwegian coast.  Russia can also choose to militarize its powerful nuclear-powered icebreakers, the vessels that autonomously are capably of breaking through the thickest sea-ice of the Arctic.  Ultimately, it could also designate a stronger military role to its research vessels. That could include also the brand new “Severny Polyus[RG1] ,” the ship that is designed for autonomous drifting in Arctic sea-ice for up to two years.

Russia’s current Marine Doctrine was adopted in 2017 and covers the period until 2030. The document highlights the need for a technological modernization of Russian ships and development of transport corridors like the Northern Sea Route.  According to Yuri Borisov, the Russian Navy will in the course of 2022 get a total of 20 new military ships, as well as five motorboats and 21 support vessels.

Sanctions Threaten Russia’s Arctic Energy Projects

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“Moscow’s war against Ukraine is having a large toll on one of the most remote parts of the planet. The region that over the past years has been a top priority for the Russian government is now about to face a serious economic setback.  Several of the new oil and gas projects, mines and infrastructure initiatives that until recently have been under development might now come to a grinding halt.”

According to the accompanying article from Norwegian independent news outlet The Barents Observer, the West’s economic measures against Russia will slow or stop most major Russian Arctic development projects.  Russia’s past response to Western sanctions has been to become more self-reliant, which requires financial outlays and time.  According to the article, Russia will find it difficult to acquire the partnerships and financing necessary to become self-reliant and continue its current pace of Arctic development.  Thus, Russian ambitions in the Arctic are certain to suffer in addition to all the other consequences Russia will face because of Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

Source:

Atle Staalesen, “Big Collapse looms Over Russian Arctic Policy,” The Barents Observer (Norwegian independent news source), 30 March 2022.  https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2022/03/big-collapse-looms-over-russian-arctic-policy

Moscow’s war against Ukraine is having a large toll on one of the most remote parts of the planet.  The region that over the past years has been a top priority for the Russian government is now about to face a serious economic setback.  Several of the new oil and gas projects, mines and infrastructure initiatives that until recently have been under development might now come to a grinding halt.

Natural Gas Company Novatek confirmed that it will stop the development of its liquefied natural gas projects in the region.  It will only complete the first train of the Arctic LNG 2.  [An LNG train is a liquefied natural gas plants liquefaction and purification facility…].  According to original plans, the project’s first train is to come into production in 2023 and deliver 6.6 million tons of LNG to the market.  The project train number two and three that were to be ready in 2024 and 2025 respectively will be postponed.  The announcement comes after French project partner Total made clear that it is halting all new investmentsin Russia.  Other international oil and gas companies have made similar announcements.  Among them are Baker Hughes, Halliburton and Schlumberger.

Novatek is fully dependent on Western technology to follow up its major Arctic LNG projects. Both the Yamal LNG and the Arctic LNG were built with foreign equipment provided by companies such as Linde, Siemens and Baker Hughes.  Ship traffic data indicate that there is still a high level of activity around the Arctic LNG 2 project port of Utrenneye.  This week, two nuclear-powered icebreakers escorted cargo vessels to site….

The new western sanctions against Russia will affect also several other industrial projects.  State oil company Rosneft is in the process of developing what is due to become the biggest oil project ever in the Arctic, and is dependent on western technology to build both infrastructure and ice-class tankers.   Also the investment basis of the project is now also increasing unclear as project partner Trafigura Group says that it is “reviewing its shareholding in Vostok Oil LLC.”

The Vostok Oil includes the building of 13 gas and oil fields in the remote Taymyr tundra and the annual production of more than 100 million tons by 2030.

On the Russian Arctic agenda is also the building of several mines, among them the Syradasaysky coal project in Taymyr.  This project is dependent on western tech, at least for the building of ice-class bulk carriers that can export the coal.

Ship traffic data indicate that there is still a high level of activity around the project seaport of Yenisei, despite the difficult ice conditions in the area.

As industrial projects come to a halt, Russia will not be able to meet its ambitious plans for Arctic shipping.  The objective set by President Putin in 2018 is the annual shipments of at least 80 million tons of goods on the Northern Sea Route by 2024.

The country’s Minister of the Far East and Arctic Aleksei Chekunkov during a visit to Murmansk in early March told local media that the objectives remain unchanged.  But he appears to shut his eyes for the ongoing developments that is about to fully isolate Russia in international relations and trade.

It is now increasingly unclear also whether Russia will be able to meet its plan on nuclear icebreaker construction.  The country intends to build a fleet of up to six LK-60 icebreakers in the course of the decade, as well as the super-powerful Lider.  But the Baltic and Zvezda shipyards will hardly be able to complete construction without western technology.

The Russian government in 2018 presented a 5-year plan for Arctic developments that included investment up to 5.5 trillion rubles by year 2024 and 13.5 trillion rubles by 2050.  That document now appears like nothing but a piece of paper.

In addition to the standstill in its grand industrial projects, Russia is blocked in international bodies of regional cooperation.  Russia expected dividends from its two-year presidency in the Arctic Council and planned as many as a 88 various events.The Ukraine fighting affects the plans and projections and the subsequent halt in international Arctic cooperation.  On March 4, the Arctic Council announced that it had decided to “pause all official meetings of the Council and its subsidiary bodies until further notice.”  The Barents Council followed with the same decision.

Russian Railroad Troops’ Trains Will Be Robotized

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“In addition to the current armored trains in the railroad troops (there are two railroad battalions in the separate railroad brigade in the Southern Military District), we have restored the “Amur” armored trains for special missions in zones of military conflict and restored the “Baikal” military escort trains with their cranes and supply of construction material.”

Railroads are the major means of material transport in Russia.  The Russian Railroad Troops are an established branch of the Russian ground forces.  Before the Second Chechen War, the railroad troops built a rail line into Dagestan that proved valuable to the successful Russian effort against Chechnya.  Railroad Troops build rail lines, rail bridges, switching yards, and tunnels.  They also operate armored trains that mount artillery, air defense systems, and other armaments.  The pro-government newspaper Izvestia sent two of its premier military reporters to interview the Chief of the Railroad Troops.  In addition to providing background on the railroad troops and their mission, he discussed new technical plans and training developed to incorporate robotics into the railroad troops.  In particular, he notes that military scholars are conducting research and development in the uses of robotic systems to support railroad troops.  Although not stated explicitly, the accompanying excerpts of the interview imply that Russian trains manned by Railroad Troops may play a role in the Ukraine invasion delivering essential combat equipment to the area of conflict.

Source:

Roman Kretsul and Alexi Ramm, “Роботизированные Системы Скоро Наудт Применение в Железнодорожных Войскак (Robotic systems will soon be adapted by Railroad Troops), Izvestia (Pro-Kremlin daily newspaper), 11 February 2022. https://iz.ru/1289710/roman-kretcul-aleksei-ramm/robotizirovannye-sistemy-skoro-naidut-primenenie-v-zheleznodorozhnykh-voiskakh

The railroad troops are overshadowed by other structures in the Ministry of Defense.  However, the importance of their work is not underestimated.  For example, in 2015, railroad troops built a bypass line around Ukraine.  General-Lieutenant Oleg Kosenkov, Chief of the Railroad Troops Directorate in the Ministry of Defense sat for an Izvestia interview that covered their experience in the construction of the Baikal-Amur Magistral (BAM) railroad and discussed the new technical plans and training developed to incorporate robotics. 

The public knows little about the specific details of the railroad troops.  What are they for and what missions do they do?

Railroad troops are special troops designated for the restoration, blocking, mine removal, technical oversight and construction of railroad lines.  They improve their stability and capacity, construct feeder lines for railroad bridges and junctures, operate and install floating railroad bridges and support the Armed forces of our country.

In recent years, the Army has undergone serious reforms.  Did these have an impact on the railroad troops? 

Under the direction of the Minister of Defense, Army General Sergei Shoigu, we reorganized the structure of the railroad troops on a different vector-from a massive, one might say overdone structure to a smaller, more manageable and optimized structure.  We formed 13 support centers for mobilization deployment.  Their primary mission is to accumulate, maintain and upgrade weapons, military and specialized technology and material items; support mobilization support bases; and to provide administrative points for the receipt of mobilization resources which conduct priority measures.  During this period, we formed four bases for construction material. 

In 2015, we undertook more signification measures for organizing construction.  As a result, the separate railroad brigade (the primary railroad troop organization) gained the status of a formation consisting of separate military regiments.  The railroad troops then consisted of 10 formations with 58 ready separate military regiments.  At the end of 2015, the Ministry of Defense formed the scientific-technical committee for the railroad troops.  Later, the railroad troop’s scientific-technical testing center formed. 

In 2015, the railroad troops built the Zhyravka-Millerovo stretch in southwest Russia.  What experience did they receive from this construction?

The president gave the mission to the Ministry of Defense to build the railroad bypass around Ukraine.  They built a dual-track electrified railroad section for the South-East and Northern Caucasus railroad using troops from the Southern, Western and Central Military Districts.  The project involved some 1,700 personnel and 700 trucks, engineering and specialized equipment.  In a short period, the railroad troops carried out a major project to build a permanent new railroad line….

Last year the railroad troops worked on the reconstruction of the Baikal-Amur Magistral (BAM).  Did this present difficulties or was it routine and orderly?

In April 2021, the railroad troops began laying a section of double track from Ulak to the Fevralsk Station on the Far Eastern railroad and set about reconstructing their assigned section of the BAM.  It turns out this was one of the most difficult sections.  

At this time, five railroad troops’ formations with their component of specialized military units and subunits are working to complete this project.  They are quartered in small garrisons of contemporary modular housing in accordance with the established norms for food and housing.  During the course of four seasons, we studied the influence of climate during the construction process.  And you may believe that, having studied the experience of the earlier construction of the magistral, the forces have already finished a significant portion of the work.  You may say that slowly we are beginning to master the harsh taiga….

We always hear how the Navy, Aviation, and the Aerospace Forces receive the newest military technology.  Are the railroad troops also receiving new, breakthrough technology?

…Over the past several years, the railroad troops units have received technology for transporting swimming railroad bridges, for measuring ballast for railroad beds and independent movement.  In the future, they plan to have new track and railroad tie layers and also improvements in wheeled technology for rail.  Further, military scholars are conducting research and development in the uses of robotic systems to support railroad troops.  I believe that they will soon be ours for use.

Are there any plans for the railroad troops to build new sections of track, bridges and tunnels?

Yes, we are working with the Russian Federation Ministry of Transport and the government-owned Joint Stock Company “Russian Railroads”.  We are cooperating on using the railroad troops for new construction and reconstruction.  Currently we are working on a section of track as part of the third stage of developing a rail line from the BAM to the Eastern Military Training area.

Will your forces receive new specialized trains or locomotives?  Are you looking into developing a modern analog to the armored train or something similar?In addition to the current armored trains in the railroad troops (there are two railroad battalions in the separate railroad brigade in the Southern Military District), we have restored the “Amur” armored train for special missions in zones of military conflict and restored the “Baikal” military escort train.  Both can carry cranes and supplies of construction material.  There is no analog to these specialized mobile trains.  Running these trains on railroads provides technical reconnaissance, mine clearing and removal of damaged railroad debris, transportation for personnel and accompanying military echelons.  These trains are always in the “hot” (ready -not damped) mode ready to act under any circumstance.  Within an hour they must be ready to leave the station on the start of a long journey to a designated place.

Robot-Enhanced Vehicles Planned for Arctic Equipment Evacuation

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“Arctic Troops will be equipped with robot tow-trucks and repair vehicles that will be capable of working with any damaged equipment at a Temperature of -50 or below.”

Special terrain requires special equipment, and Russia’s new recovery vehicles will improve its combat capabilities in the Arctic.  According to the pro-government newspaper Izvestiya, the Russian military has mounted the REM-KL recovery vehicle super structure on the tracked articulated multipurpose DT-30PM vehicle.  The REM-KL can reportedly pull 13 tons and its 9.8-meter hydraulic crane can lift 950 1-ton loads with a reach of 8 meters and 3 tons with a reach of 3 meters.  Its hydraulic winch has a traction force of 10.5 tons and a pulling force up to 20 tons.  Further, the MTR-K reconnaissance vehicle’s recovery capabilities, traditionally fitted on a wheeled chassis, are being fitted to the GAZ-3344-20 articulated tracked transport vehicle and being designated as the MTR-G.  The MTR-G’s reported lifting capacity is some 3 tons.  The MTR-G does double duty as an NBC reconnaissance vehicle.  The two new Arctic vehicles will work as a team to recover and repair ground forces equipment.  The addition of an on-board unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) search capability should greatly aid Russia’s ability to find broken-down and disabled vehicles in rugged terrain.   Russia employs such purpose-built tracked articulated vehicles in a variety of ways: as mobile kitchens and bakeries, mortar and artillery platforms, communications vehicles, command posts, troop transports, and supply vehicles.  They readily cross snow, ice, and swamps and can swim bodies of water.

Source:

Aleksei Ramm and Bogdan Stepovoi, “Северный почин: арктические войска вооружат роботами-эвакуаторами (Equipping the Arctic forces with robot tow trucks and repair vehicles),” Izvestia (Moscow based pro-government newspaper), 3 December 2021.  https://iz.ru/1258603/aleksei-ramm-bogdan-stepovoi/severnyi-pochin-arkticheskie-voiska-vooruzhat-robotami-evakuatorami

Arctic Troops will be equipped with robot tow-trucks and repair vehicles that will be capable of working with damaged equipment at a Temperature of -50 or below.  Special Arctic recovery and repair subunits will be incorporated into the Russian Ground Forces soon.  Special tow trucks and mobile repair shops, mounted on articulated prime movers are part of the subunit’s TO&E equipment.  Their primary advantage is their capability to tow a heavy vehicle at minus 50 degrees or below… The vehicles are robotized and permit the crew to accomplish their work without leaving the heated cab. If necessary, their equipment will help find a vehicle on the battlefield and eliminate the malfunction on the spot.  The arctic “repairmen” will be involved with not only trucks and armored vehicles.  They will be able to work with such complex types of weapons as S-300 and S-400 air defense systems, “Bal” and “Bastion” missile systems, and with future robotized platforms…. 

The evacuation and repair subunits will deploy to main garrisons and repair the entire range of ground forces equipment.  The REM-GT heavy repair and recovery vehicles and the MTR-G technical reconnaissance vehicles will become the main “work horses” of the arctic repair detachments that are already at a high degree of readiness.  The vehicles will undergo state tests in arctic conditions in the near future.  After this, the arctic subunits’ organization and staff structure will be determined. 

The new heavy-duty REM-GT repair and recovery vehicle is based upon the DT-30PM articulated tracked transport vehicle.  It is designed for maintenance, field repair, and recovery of all types of equipment, which are deployed in the arctic zones.  The MTR-G technical reconnaissance vehicle is mounted on the GAZ-3344-20 articulated tracked transport vehicle.  It will transport the maintenance subunits’ specialists to reach marooned equipment, assess its state, and render needed assistance on the spot. 

The new repair vehicles function in the Arctic and the Far North, Siberia, and the Far East.  At low temperatures or in wind squalls, the crew use the robotized manipulators to take even the heaviest models of military equipment undertow, without leaving the heated cab.

According to Military Expert Aleksey Khlopotov, “In northern conditions, the combat capability of the entire arctic grouping depends on the functions of the rear services units.  The new repair and recovery vehicles will precisely help to support them. The North is permafrost, snow during the winter and swamps in the summer.  The tracked all-terrain vehicles with low ground pressure have been adapted for operating in those conditions.  They will go where wheeled vehicles get stuck.  This will help provide repair and recovery of equipment on inaccessible terrain. 

Khlopotov pointed out that the DT-30PM articulated tracked transport vehicles are already well known in the Ground Forces.  The “Tor-M2DT” and “Pantsir-SA” are air defense missile systems that are part of the arctic force’s inventory and are also mounted on these vehicles. 

Vehicles for the recovery and repair of equipment are being delivered to the Ground Forces now.  The Ministry of Defense previously reported that the wheeled version of the powerful REM-KS would arrive in the Western Military District inventory by the end of 2021. They will conduct the recovery and repair of the “Iskander” short-range ballistic missile systems in the field.  The REM-GT and MTR-G will operate in tandem in field conditions and combat. The equipment reconnaissance specialist must first arrive at the location of the combat in order to assess the amount of work and damage.  If necessary, its crew will be able to assist the soldiers and officers to extract the stalled vehicle or to conduct minor repairs on the spot. 

The vehicle is equipped with navigation and night vision instruments, a 360-degree video surveillance system, and an unmanned aerial vehicle.   This package permits the conduct of searches at a distance of 10 kilometers at any time of day and practically in any weather.  It will also be indispensable in peacetime dung the conduct of search and rescue operations in accessible areas of the North.  The MTR-G has equipment for radiation and chemical reconnaissance.  During large-scale operations, the crew needs to know that the terrain is not contaminated with toxic agents and that the atmosphere does not pose a danger for personnel in order to begin work or to call for backup. 

The articulated REM-GT is capable of operating autonomously.  The all-terrain vehicle is equipped practically with that same suite of hardware as the maintenance reconnaissance vehicle but does not have an unmanned aerial vehicle.  The vehicle has been adapted for functioning in a cold climate to the maximum extent possible.  In particular, it has robot manipulators that can take any damaged equipment in tow.  The video cameras provide 360-degree visibility and assist the crew in this extraction.

Depending on the type of equipment, which they will have to repair, the crew can rapidly select or change the machine tool sets, the necessary spare parts, and the necessary expendable supplies.  These are located in the rear vehicle articulated compartments.  This stockage will permit the crew, without outside help, to repair ground force vehicles and tanks or the combat modules of air defense systems.  The time required for the REM-GT to prepare for movement at a temperature of -50 degrees is 30 minutes.

Izvestiya previously reported that repair and recovery regiments formed in each military district.  During combat, each of them is capable of forming several quick response teams, which will function in an autonomous mode directly at the front line.

Respected Russian Academic Speculates on War in the Arctic

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“The Northern Fleet can only effectively counter American nuclear submarines in close proximity to its bases on the Kola Peninsula, and further to the East the adversary can operate more or less freely.”  

A recent article in the pro-Kremlin news outlet Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer sees the possibility of a military conflict breaking out in the Barents Sea region of the Arctic Ocean.  The author envisions a scenario emanating from a U.S. Navy freedom of navigation test of the Northern Sea Route (See: “Freedom of the Seas to Be Tested in Arctic?” OE Watch, April 2019). Well-known Russian political scientist Aleksandr Khramchikhin, Deputy Director of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis, is the article’s author.  He has long argued that China is Russia’s primary security threat and that the United States is looking to the Global Strike Command to defeat Russia’s nuclear capability with non-nuclear strikes.  Khramchikhin lacks a military background, but his reasoning and commentary are respected.  Khramchikhin’s description of the Arctic operational environment includes scenarios of engagements that are narrow in their potential locations and application of forces.  Paratroop drops, submarine missile launches, fighter aircraft engagements, and ground force incursions with limited objectives seem to capture the nature of conflict, according the author.  He admits that “imagining a battle in this region is very difficult indeed.”

Source:

Aleksandr Khramchikhin, “Очень холодное поле боя: Война за акватории высоких широт может начаться с провокации на Северном морском пути (A very cold battlefield: A war for the high-latitude waters could begin with a provocation on the Northern Sea Route),” Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer (pro-government weekly focused on Russian military and military-industrial complex), 22 November 2021.  https://vpk-news.ru/articles/64758

Competition for the Arctic, possibly spilling into war over the region, is a subject at least two decades old.  As the Arctic ice melts, interest is growing fast in a region where near-free navigation, unfettered access to offshore hydrocarbons, and military operations are becoming possible. 

Nobody is planning to share out the Arctic lands, since they were claimed long ago.  This is about sharing the waters, where the picture is not quite so clear and the number of potential competitors is limited.  The air forces of Finland…and Sweden…have some potential but these countries do not directly border onto the Arctic Ocean so there is nothing for them to fight over.  Iceland does not have an air force so it has nothing to fight with, even if it wanted to. 

Canada’s forces…are generally somewhat feebler than Finland’s and Sweden’s, and are either stationed in the south of the country (on a similar latitude to Moscow) or are busy in various American wars in the Middle and Near East.  Canadian forces in the Arctic are purely symbolic, without even a proper northern regiment in total and armed with only light weapons.

The Danish Air Force is weaker even than the Canadian and is practically all stationed in Denmark itself, that is, on the Jutland peninsula and adjacent islands.  In Greenland there is only the Sirius ski patrol — 30 men, that is, a single platoon, and also armed with only light weapons.  One or two patrol boats are also based there.

So any involvement by Denmark and Canada in a fight for the Arctic is purely theoretical (regarding the military component of the fight).  Deployment of Canadian and Danish forces to the Arctic is in practice unrealistic — they are too few and anyway do not train for war on ice.  The most that Ottawa and Copenhagen could do is send to the Arctic a few warships (one or two submarines, three or four frigates from Canada and two or three frigates from Denmark) and to airfields in the Arctic — up to 10 or so warplanes (Canadian F-18A/Bs, Danish F-16A/Bs).  You cannot do much fighting with those.

Fairly large groups of US air and ground forces are stationed in Alaska.  They could capture Chukotka, where there are no Russian forces, with ease.  And the USAF could safely block the deployment to there of Russian contingents from Kamchatka, not to mention from the Vladivostok region.  Strange as it may seem, it would be easier for Russia to send Airborne Troops units to Chukotka from the European part of the country.  The Americans could in theory even land forces in Yakutiya (in the Tiksi area, for example).  True, Russian paratroopers could just as successfully turn up on the islands of Canada’s Arctic archipelago, which also have nothing and nobody to defend themselves with.  However, the point is that all these reciprocal assault landings are completely senseless and would create more problems for the protagonists than for the other side.  This is simply because an American expeditionary force in Chukotka and Yakutiya and a Russian one in northern Canada would be at a hopeless dead end with no chance of developing an offensive to the south, and with desperate supply issues.

The only place where potential “fighters for the Arctic” might come into direct contact is northern Europe.  The greater part of Norway’s air force…is stationed in the north of the country and in close proximity to the group of forces of Russia’s Northern Joint Strategic Command on the Kola Peninsula.  The Russian presence is of course more powerful, especially in terms of the two countries’ ability to grow their forces.  Imagining a battle in this region is very difficult indeed.  Between 1941 and 1943 on the entire gigantic Soviet-German front, the Arctic was the sole sector in which the Germans captured nothing, other than a few hundred square kilometers of lifeless tundra.  Imagining that the Norwegians will be more effective and successful than the Germans is, to put it mildly, hard.  It is even harder to imagine how the Norwegians’ NATO allies would come to their aid in the ice and snow.  On the other hand, in the fall of 1944 the Soviet army liberated only the Norwegian border county of Finnmark, and went no further.  The Supreme Command could not see any point in fighting for frozen mountains crisscrossed by fjords.  Modern-day Russia needs them even less.

It is practically impossible to conceive of an armed conflict in the Arctic over a disputed oil or gas field.  Hydrocarbons extraction in the region is a highly complex and expensive business, so no oil or gas company will start work on a deposit unless the legal status and national affiliation are settled.

Much more realistic is an incursion into Russia’s Arctic waters by American nuclear submarines, which from there could in theory fire Tomahawk cruise missiles at numerous military and economic targets in the Urals, Siberia, and the Far East.  The Northern Fleet can only effectively counter American nuclear submarines in close proximity to its bases on the Kola Peninsula, and further to the East the adversary can operate more or less freely.  In that case, the hopes lie with air rather than submarine defenses, that is, with eliminating the Tomahawks rather than their carriers.  But this kind of scenario could materialize only if matters get to the stage of full-scale war between Russia and the United States.

However, a dispute over “freedom of navigation” in peacetime cannot be discounted.  Washington believes that both Russia’s Northern Sea Route and Canada’s Northwest Passage are international waters in which civilian and military ships of any country may sail freely without the need to notify anybody.  A direct conflict between the United States and Canada, close allies, over the Northwest Passage is unlikely, and anyway, it is not greatly needed as a transport route (easier to take the Panama Canal).  The Northern Sea Route, which greatly shortens the time from Europe to Asia and back, is much more in demand.

On more than one occasion, American warships have sailed across the South China Sea, which Beijing regards as its own.  Matters have not yet reached the stage of direct confrontation with ships of the PLA, but it cannot be ruled out.  Similarly, nothing is stopping the Americans from just turning up and sending one or a number of warships through the Northern Sea Route without officially notifying Russia first.  Will Moscow be as restrained as Beijing?  Or will it require the Americans to scrupulously comply with Russian law and in the event of a refusal do what is necessary to head them off, including forcibly?  In that case, how far might the dispute go?  It is possible that Washington will allow us to find out, and very soon:  It badly wants to prove to the whole world and to itself as well that America can still do anything, including what others cannot.