Monthly Archives: June 2022

The Philippines Gaining Upper Hand Against Abu Sayyaf

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2021-12-03 T4 Delivery 005.

2021-12-03 T4 Delivery 005.

“The terror groups may try to disrupt the peace and order during the election period but our preparedness will assure that they will not succeed…”

The Philippines government may be weakening Abu Sayyaf across the region.  According to Philippine daily sunstar.com, there was concern that Abu Sayyaf would seek to disrupt the elections after Philippine forces killed the group’s leader in Basilan only weeks earlier.  The military’s strategy to protect the elections from Abu Sayyaf involved closing off access points to the group’s main area of operations in Basilan and ordering troops to avoid political partisanship.  In addition, the army boosted its coordination with the Philippine National Police, the Commission on Elections, and other agencies to secure the elections.  Ultimately, the army deployed 69,000 soldiers to protect the elections, which were held successfully on 9 May.

A separate article in the Philippines’ largest English-language newspaper, Manila Bulletin, pointed to the surrender of an Abu Sayyaf bomb-maker as evidence that Abu Sayyaf’s ranks were being further depleted through the Philippines’ rehabilitation program for former Abu Sayyaf members.  The program, which allows local governments to work with surrendered repentant militants to reintegrate them into society, has seen some success since the Philippines stepped it up in recent years. Elsewhere, according to a recent Indonesian-language article in Hong Kong-based suara.com, a number of hostages escaped Abu Sayyaf in Indonesia in April.  Collectively, the articles imply that Abu Sayyaf’s military capabilities and negative impact appears to be waning in the face of determined government effort.

Source:

“Troops told to ready for poll worst-case scenario,” sunstar.com (Philippine daily), 20 April 2022. https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1926909/zamboanga/local-news/troops-told-to-ready-for-poll-worst-case-scenario

Lieutenant General Alfredo Rosario Jr., commander of the Western Mindanao Command (Westmincom), has ordered the troops in Basilan province to prepare for the worst-case scenario on election day. “The terror groups may try to disrupt the peace and order during the election period but our preparedness will assure that they will not succeed,” Rosario said. On March 25, Radzmil Jannatul alias Abu Khubayb, the leader of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in Basilan province, was killed in a clash with government troops in Sitio Center, Baiwas village, Sumisip, Basilan.

“Let us also sustain our good coordination with our partners from the Philippine National Police, the Commission on Elections, and other agencies to ensure an honest, orderly, and peaceful elections,” Rosario added. He reminded the JTF-Basilan troops to remain non-partisan at all times.

Source: “Sayyaf bomber surrenders in Zamboanga,” mb.com.ph (Philippines largest English language newspaper), 23 March 2022. https://mb.com.ph/2022/03/23/sayyaf-bomber-surrenders-in-zamboanga/

A suspected Abu Sayyaf member linked to several bombing and kidnapping incidents in Zamboanga and Basilan surrendered to authorities on Tuesday. Mursidin Husin, 39, a resident of Sitio Buahayan, Dita, Zamboanga City, surrendered to the police at PNP Camp General Eduardo Batalla, RT Lim Boulevard. Husin also turned over his .38 caliber revolver with ammunition. Husin, a follower of Jamiul Nasalun, an Abu Sayyaf sub-leader based in Zamboanga City, was allegedly involved in the 2013 bombing of a passenger bus in Zamboanga City and two other explosions in a Sangali cafeteria and in Basilan.

Source: “Kisah WNI 427 Hari jadi Tahanan Abu Sayyaf: Jarang Makan dan Takut Kena Bom (Story of Indonesian Citizen 427 Anniversary of Abu Sayyaf Prisoner: Rarely Eat and Fear of Bombs), suara.com (Hong Kong based Indonesian language bi-monthly newspaper), 5 April 2022. https://www.suara.com/news/2021/04/05/132923/kisah-wni-427-hari-jadi-tahanan-abu-sayyaf-jarang-makan-dan-takut-kena-bom

Arizal Caste Miran, one of the four victims of the Abu Sayyaf group hostage-takers in the Philippines, is now able to reunite with his family. Before returning to his family’s arms, Arizal and three other people were desperate to escape. They heard from a member of the Abu Sayyaf group that the hostages would be transferred to Tawi Island. While on their way in the morning, the ship they were traveling on capsized because from the waves. Instantly the four Indonesian citizens went to save themselves.

Image Information:

Image: 2021-12-03 T4 Delivery 005.
Source: Armed Forces of the Philippines
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2021-12-03_T4_Delivery_005.jpg
Attribution: CC x 2.0

Degrading Environmental Conditions in Iraq Providing Cover for Terrorism

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U.S. Soldiers walk from the dining facility during a sandstorm at Forward Operating Base Warhorse, Iraq, July 4 (2009).

U.S. Soldiers walk from the dining facility during a sandstorm at Forward Operating Base Warhorse, Iraq, July 4 (2009).

“…the number of dusty days increased from 243 days to 272 days per year over the past two decades, and is expected to reach 300 dusty days per year in 2050.”

Over a three-week span in April and May, the Iraqi news agency Shafaq News reported at least three separate attacks in which ISIS fighters took advantage of dust storms to attack Iraqi positions.  The attacks themselves are not novel, as ISIS and other rebel groups have used dust storms and sandstorms to conceal their movements during attacks in both Syria and Iraq for years.  Nor were the attacks particularly impactful, relegated to brief reports in local media.  The frequency and breadth of this year’s dust storms, however, have drawn substantial media attention.  As detailed in the accompanying excerpt from the influential Qatari outlet al-Jazeera, the number of annual “dusty days” is expected to reach 300 by the year 2050, up from 243 at the start of the millennium and 272 at present.  A major reason for this is Iraq’s accumulating environmental problems, which include ongoing drought, expanding desertification, extreme summer heat, and decreased water flows in the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers.  Iraq’s dysfunctional political parties are unlikely to muster sustainable responses to these challenges, allowing the spiraling cycle to continue.  Those frustrated at the negative social impacts caused by environmental degradation are likely to channel this against authorities, giving ISIS and other insurgent groups an opening to continue recruiting among the increasingly disaffected population.

Sources:

“بالتزامن مع عاصفة ترابية.. داعش يهاجم الجيش في الموصل والحشد يدخل الإنذار

(ISIS attacks the army in Mosul during dust storm, as PMF goes on alert),” Shafaq News (Iraqi news agency), 6 April 2022. https://tinyurl.com/yck9dbmy

On Wednesday, ISIS militants attacked Iraqi army units in the city of Mosul, the center of Nineveh Governorate. A statement of the 44th Brigade in the Popular Mobilization (Ansar al-Marja’iya) stated that… “a very dense dust storm hit the city of Mosul at the time of the attack by ISIS.”

Source:

“جرحى بهجوم لداعش في الانبار مستغلا عاصفة ترابية تضرب المحافظة

(Injuries in ISIS attack in Anbar taking advantage of dust storm in the province),” Shafaq News (Iraqi news agency), 19 April 2022. https://tinyurl.com/2p8wz9xa

Imad Al-Dulaimi, the mayor of Al-Rutba district, western Iraq, revealed on Tuesday that six soldiers and civilians were wounded by ISIS militants who took advantage of a dust storm that hit the area.

Source:

“مسؤول حكومي: هجوم “البو طراز” خارج حدود ديالى وداعش استغل العاصفة

(Government official: Albu Tiraz attack outside of Diyala’s borders, as ISIS takes advantage of storm),” Shafaq News (Iraqi news agency), 2 May 2022. https://tinyurl.com/yndch5bj

Eyewitnesses in the village of Albu Tiraz revealed that ISIS militants took advantage of the dust storm and lack of vision to carry out the attack, as visibility did not exceed 10 meters.

Source:

“العواصف الترابية تضرب مدن وقرى العراق طوال السنة.. تعرف على الأسباب

(Reasons why dust storms hit Iraqi cities and villages throughout the year),” al-Jazeera (influential Qatari news outlet), 19 April 2022. https://tinyurl.com/p793253f

…according to the statistics recorded by the General Meteorological Authority, the number of dusty days increased from 243 days to 272 days per year over the past two decades, and is expected to reach 300 dusty days per year in 2050. About 70% of agricultural land in Iraq is degraded or threatened with deterioration, as a result of climate change and the loss of vegetation cover, which is the main factor for soil stabilization…

Image Information:

Image:  U.S. Soldiers walk from the dining facility during a sandstorm at Forward Operating Base Warhorse, Iraq, July 4 (2009).
Source: https://www.dvidshub.net/image/186799/sandstorm
Attribution: Public Domain

China Expands Naval Expeditionary Capability With New Ship and Helicopter Variants

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Type 075 (Yushen) Amphibious Assault Ship.

Type 075 (Yushen) Amphibious Assault Ship.

“The [Guangxi’s] complement of amphibious vehicles, tanks and helicopters is more complete and efficient in ship-to-shore movement.”

Captain Xu Ce [许策] – Captain of the Guangxi

China’s state-run television CCTV7 recently showed the Guangxi, China’s second Type 075 (Yushen) Amphibious Assault Ship, or a landing helicopter dock (LHD) in U.S. parlance, participating in workup exercises.  The second of its class, the Guangxi incorporates refinements learned from the development of the Hainan, China’s first Type 075.  Per China’s ship naming conventions, the amphibious ship is named after a Chinese province.  As noted by Captain Xu in state-run media outlet The Paper, the ship’s crew was able to quickly bring new systems online and begin training.  The Type 075 class LHDs can carry 1,687 troops and 30 helicopters, as well as two Type 726 air-cushion landing craft (see: “China: Type 075 Amphibious Assault Ship Launched,” OE Watch, November 2019).  The Type 075 class LHDs also have a defensive suite that includes HHQ-10 missile launchers, similar to the U.S. SeaRAM system; two 30mm H/PJ-11 CIWS; as well as jammers, chaff, and decoy launchers.

China is building multiple additional Type 075s, with the goal of fielding an extensive expeditionary force capable of executing “three-dimensional operations” involving power projection through air, sea, and amphibious land from multiple directions.  The growing force will complement the Chinese Navy’s rapidly expanding Marine Corps, which has grown from two divisions less than a decade ago to six operational brigades according to public reporting. In a related development, according to Chinese blog and media outlet Sina, the Z-20, a medium multi-role helicopter derived from the S-70 Blackhawk has entered service with the Chinese Navy.  The helicopter, which has superior capabilities compared to China’s indigenous Z-8 and Z-9 helicopters, has already entered widespread use in China’s ground force, but the apparent induction of navalized variants for anti-submarine warfare and other roles is a significant development, particularly for China’s naval expeditionary force.

Sources:

Nan Boyi, [南博一], ‘两栖攻击舰 广西舰’ 首次公开亮相，进一步提升海军两栖战力 (Amphibious assault ship “Guangxi Ship” made its first public appearance, further enhancing the naval amphibious combat capability),” The Paper (state affiliated media outlet), 21 April 2022. hxxps://j.eastday.com/p/1650522083043935

Recently, the Guangxi, a newly commissioned amphibious assault ship began basic training exercises, focusing on the requirements of future amphibious operations and expeditionary operations, while continuing to test the crew on essential tasks such as navigation, damage control and other subjects.

From its appearance, it can be seen that the Guangxi (hull number 32) is the same class as the Hainan, China’s first Type 075 amphibious assault ship (LHD).

According to a previous report by Xinhua News Agency, the Hainan (hull number 31) was launched in Shanghai on September 25, 2019.

According to previous CCTV reports, China’s first indigenously developed [class of LHDs] can carry amphibious armored vehicles, multi-role helicopters, hovercraft and tanks, and is equipped with missiles, naval guns, electronic warfare and other weapon systems.

Source: “国防军事早报 (Morning Report on Defense),” CCTV 7 (state TV military channel), 22 April 2022.

On April 22, CCTV Channel 7’s “Military Report” program displayed a images of an anti-submarine variant of the Z-20 helicopter taking off and landing on a Type 055 destroyer….The Z-20 is a new generation of 10-ton tactical general-purpose transport helicopters independently developed by China. It made its public debut at the 70th National Day military parade in 2019.

Source: “直-20反潜直升机首次公开，将进一步提升海军反潜能力 (Z-20 ASW Aircraft Publicly Shown for the First Time, Advancing the PLA Navy’s Anti-Submarine Capability),”Sina (Chinese blog and news outlet), 23 April 2022. hxxps://news.sina.com.cn/c/2022-04-23/doc-imcwipii5939966.shtml

Image Information:

Image: Type 075 (Yushen) Amphibious Assault Ship
Source: Peter Wood
Attribution: Creator, Peter Wood, grants permission to use

Algeria Sees Threat from Morocco as Western Sahara Conflict Threatens To Reignite

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Morocco from space.

Morocco from space.

“…Algeria strongly condemns the targeted assassinations by the Kingdom of Morocco using advanced military weapons outside of its internationally recognized borders…”

The long-frozen dispute over the Western Sahara, in which Morocco claims sovereignty over the territory and Algeria supports the Polisario Front’s independence aspirations, continues to thaw amid sporadic military activity.  The latest incident occurred in early April, when a Moroccan UAV purportedly struck a convoy near the border between Mauritania and the Western Sahara. There are conflicting reports of what happened.  The Algerian government, through its foreign affairs ministry, called it “a targeted assassination” carried out by Morocco outside of its internationally recognized borders.  The Qatari-aligned daily al-Araby al-Jadid cites a source that claimed a Moroccan drone had fired eight missiles at two Algerian trucks that had delivered their commercial cargo in Mauritania and were returning to the Algerian city of Tindouf.  The Moroccan government did not comment on the matter, but according to the Facebook page of the quasi-official Moroccan military chat forum FAR Maroc, Moroccan authorities had conveyed to the UN that 10 trucks transporting weapons and ammunition were struck within territory that the Polisario Front controls.  It added that Polisario had prevented UN forces from accessing the site for 72 hours, during which the group altered the scene to make it appear as if the missiles struck a civilian convoy. The Algerian military’s main articulated concern vis-à-vis Morocco are not UAVs, but rather the broader threat of “new generation warfare.”  In a speech immediately following the incident described above, Saïd Chengriha, Chief of Staff of the Algerian military, emphasized the importance of maintaining national cohesion amid external attempts to sow discord through misinformation and influence campaigns.  Chengriha has stated on more than one occasion that the key battle for Algeria’s youth is a battle of conscience, “in which new and unconventional weapons are used, and which uses virtual space as its theater of operations, in an attempt to manipulate opinions, especially young people.” 

Sources:

Algerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Twitter account, @Algeria_MFA, 12 April 2022. https://twitter.com/Algeria_MFA/status/1513918713086492676

Algeria strongly condemns the targeted assassinations by the Kingdom of Morocco using advanced military weapons outside of its internationally recognized borders against innocent civilians from three countries of the region.

Source:

“قصف جديد لشاحنات جزائرية في الصحراء قرب الحدود الموريتانية

(New attack on Algerian trucks in the Sahara near the Mauritanian border),” al-Araby al-Jadid (Qatari-aligned daily), 10 April 2022. https://tinyurl.com/ydf7uemn

Local sources told al-Araby al-Jadid that Moroccan drones fired eight missiles at two Algerian trucks, which caused their destruction and the injury of more than two people. They added that the two trucks had unloaded their cargo in Mauritania and were on their way back to the city of Tindouf, in southern Algeria.

Source: FAR Maroc (quasi-official Moroccan military news forum), Facebook page (Arabic), 21 April 2022. https://www.facebook.com/1529080437316937/posts/3255921981299432

Regarding the Bir Lahlu operation on April 10, the [UN] mission confirmed that Morocco had informed that it targeted, in a specific operation, about 10 trucks and vehicles loaded with ammunition and weapons targeting the security of Morocco. However, the Polisario prevented members of the mission from inspecting the site for 72 hours, after which they found only two trucks and a vehicle. It also monitored the presence of another operation near the location of the two trucks, confirming that Polisario had manipulated the scene to prove its allegation that Morocco had targeted civilians.

Source: “Les nouveaux défis exigent la consolidation du front interne,” Algeria Press Service (Algerian oficial news agency), 8 May 2022. https://www.aps.dz/algerie/139409-les-nouveaux-defis-exigent-la-consolidation-du-front-interne-et-une-confiance-totale-dans-les-institutions-de-l-etat

According to El Djeich, “the various challenges which Algeria is currently facing, and which it will have to take up in the future, have led the High Command of the People’s National Army (ANP)… to carry out a vast program of modernization and capacity-renewal of the ANP battle corps and its implementation on the ground, in order to achieve a high level of competence at all levels and therefore operational availability”

… “The real battle that our young people must win today is essentially a battle of conscience, Lieutenant General Saïd Chengriha has said on numerous occasions,” per the Editorial. “It is a battle in which new and unconventional weapons are used, and which uses virtual space as its theater of operations, in an attempt to manipulate opinions, especially young people…”

Image Information:

Image:  Morocco from space
Source: NASA, https://www.dvidshub.net/image/751371/morocco-image-day]  
Attribution: Public Domain

Mexican Cartels Buying Land on Colombia-Venezuela Border

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A coca plantation of the kind found on the Colombia-Venezuela border.

“The first thing the cartels ask is if the farm has a landing strip because that gives the property a very high price.”

Mexican criminal organizations have ambitions to transform much of South America’s drug trade through a robust physical presence in Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador.  Previously, emissaries of Mexican criminal organizations had arrived at the Colombia-Venezuela border in an attempt to mediate disputes between local drug gangs (see “Colombian Military Continues to Forcefully Dismantle FARC Dissident Structures,” OE Watch, #4, 2022).  However, according to one of Argentina’s leading news sites, Infobae, the presence of Mexican cartels extends well beyond mediation.  Under the guise of oil exploration, Infobae reports how Mexican criminal organizations are driving a real estate frenzy on the Colombia-Venezuela border.  Farmland with a landing strip is especially valued, since it gives drug flights the ability to land and take off near production and storage facilities.  Large farms with landing strips are common because the roads are blocked during the rainy season and prevent farmers from getting their harvest to market.  Another Infobae report indicates that Mexican cartels in the borderland have started to transform Colombia’s drug production as well.  Specifically, Mexican cartels have introduced coca plants that yield greater harvests while requiring fewer hectares under cultivation.  Mexican cartels that used to work with local criminal organizations are becoming more globally minded in an effort to cut out middlemen and other major players.

Source:

“Alarma por el crecimiento de la compra y venta de ganado del narcotráfico y la guerrilla en Venezuela con participación de militares y políticos (Alarm over the growth of the purchase and sale of property from drug trafficking in Venezuela with the participation of the military and politicians),” Infobae (one of Argentina’s leading news sites), 28 April 2022.  https://www.infobae.com/america/venezuela/2022/04/28/alarma-por-el-crecimiento-de-la-compra-y-venta-de-ganado-del-narcotrafico-y-la-guerrilla-en-venezuela-con-participacion-de-militares-y-politicos/

There is a boom in the acquisition of properties by…Mexicans in the states of Apure, Guárico, Anzoátegui and Bolívar, with money of unknown origin…The first thing the cartels ask is if the farm has a landing strip because that gives the property a very high price.  The presence of Mexicans…has the excuse that they are interested in oil exploitation…For years, farmers have had airplanes mainly because in the rainy season, the roads are obstructed…Now, there are landing strips everywhere and aircraft landing and taking off at any time.

Source:  “Cómo el Cártel de Sinaloa y el CJNG han innovado la producción de cocaína en Colombia (How the Sinaloa Cartel and the CJNG have innovated cocaine production in Colombia),” Infobae (one of Argentina’s leading news sites), 11 May 2022.   https://www.infobae.com/america/mexico/2022/05/11/como-el-cartel-de-sinaloa-y-el-cjng-han-innovado-la-produccion-de-cocaina-en-colombia/ 

As if they were administrators of legal companies, the Mexican drug traffickers participate directly in the cultivation of the coca leaf with the introduction of adapted seeds…Lieutenants sent to the South American country not only supervise the planting, but also coordinate the shipment that guarantees the quality of the drug exported via Central America and its passage through Mexico to the streets of the United States, where the product increases its value exponentially…Despite the limited planting area, they have also implemented strategies to increase the crop yields of plantations.

Image Information:

Image caption:  A coca plantation of the kind found on the Colombia-Venezuela border.
Source:  https://www.flickr.com/photos/ciat/4387014624
Attribution:  CC BY-SA 2.0

National Armed Strike in Colombia Demonstrates Strength of Gulf Clan

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The Colombian Police capture high-level figures in the Gulf Clan.

The Colombian Police capture high-level figures in the Gulf Clan.

“The illegal armed group carried out an armed strike between May 5 and May 9, 2022.  It is estimated that 24 homicides occurred, in addition to the incineration of nearly 200 vehicles to block roads.”

In November 2021, Colombian security forces arrested Dairo Antonio Úsuga, otherwise known as “Otoniel,” the leader of the Gulf Clan and the most wanted drug trafficker in the country.  Colombian President Iván Duque declared at the time that this was “the most important blow of this century against drug trafficking in Colombia” (see: “Colombia Celebrates the Arrest of Major Drug Trafficker ‘Otoniel’,” OE Watch, December 2021).  However, in early May, the Gulf Clan shut down wide swathes of northern Colombia, declaring an “armed strike,” according to Colombia’s leading weekly magazine Semana.  The strike, which lasted four days, was a direct response to the Colombian government’s decision to extradite Otoniel.  The government was slow to react, but eventually sent several thousand troops and police to intervene and lift the strike.  According to Colombia’s left-leaning daily El Espectador, the strike resulted in 24 homicides and hundreds of burned cars used to block highways.  It also exacerbated Colombia’s supply chain challenges.  Finally, the strike demonstrated the enduring power of cartels in Colombia and had an immediate ripple effect on Colombia’s presidential election.  Leftist presidential candidate, Gustavo Petro, blamed the security policies of past presidents, while the leading right-wing candidate, Fico Gutierrez, affirmed his support for the policy of extradition and a close security partnership with the United States.  Petro won the election, ushering a new era of what will likely be more limited cooperation with a formerly reliable U.S. partner in the region.

Source:

“Clan del Golfo: qué hubo detrás del paro armado? (Clan del Golfo: what was behind the armed strike?),” El Espectador (one of Colombia’s left-leaning daily newspapers), 12 May 2022.  https://www.elespectador.com/judicial/clan-del-golfo-que-hubo-detras-del-paro-armado/ 

The illegal armed group carried out an armed strike between May 5 and May 9, 2022.  It is estimated that 24 homicides occurred, in addition to the incineration of nearly 200 vehicles to block roads.  El Espectador spoke with several leaders of the affected areas and the general picture they gave us was that, despite the military deployment, the absence of the state was felt for five days.  Business was closed, people could not leave their homes, children could not go to school, threats to leaders were constant and they could not travel on the country’s highways.

Source:  “Terror en Antioquia: Clan del Golfo ha quemado 10 vehículos en medio de su ‘paro armado’ (Terror in Antioquia: Clan del Golfo has burned 10 vehicles in the midst of its ‘armed strike’),” Semana (Colombia’s leading weekly magazine), 5 May 2022.  https://www.semana.com/nacion/medellin/articulo/terror-en-antioquia-clan-del-golfo-ha-quemado-10-vehiculos-en-medio-de-su-paro-armado/202221/ 

Cargo and food transport vehicles have been incinerated, but there are also buses for the mobilization of people and even taxis.  Around 3,000 cargo operations have been stopped…In a pamphlet released by Gulf Clan, they assure that the ‘armed strike’ will be carried out for five days, during which time social, economic, educational and cultural activities will be entirely suspended.

Image Information:

Image caption:  The Colombian Police capture high-level figures in the Gulf Clan.
Source :  https://www.flickr.com/photos/policiacolombia/8616989338/in/photostream/
Attribution:  CC BY-SA 2.0

Boko Haram Train Attack Raises Frustration with Nigeria’s Counterterrorism Strategy

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81 Division NA - Camp Zairo, 2017.

81 Division NA – Camp Zairo, 2017.

“We failed to learn from our Boko Haram experiences, thus validating the dictum that those who fail to learn from their experiences are doomed to repeat them.”

The Nigerian government has been unable to curb Boko Haram attacks.  The excerpted article from Nigeria based vanguardngr.com expresses frustration over the government’s incompetence following an attack on a train in Kaduna State in late April.  According to the article, this is only the latest of many failures in Nigeria’s counterterrorism strategy dating back to the notorious Chibok schoolgirls kidnapping of 2014.  The train attack is particularly notable because it occurred outside of Boko Haram’s main area of operations in northeastern Nigeria and came just two years after another Boko Haram faction loyal to al-Qaeda shot and almost downed a military helicopter in 2020.Vangaurdngr.com has previously been critical of the federal government led by northerner Muslim President Muhammadu Buhari, suggesting that the dire economic situation in Nigeria and lack of a government mandate over certain rural areas in Kaduna have facilitated Boko Haram’s spread in the country.  The article asserts the government is mismanaging the security situation in the country and failing to learn from previous mistakes in countering Boko Haram.  Unless the negative security trend lines are reversed, the article indicates the Buhari administration will have a legacy of empty promises.  Ultimately, the article demands the government prioritize defending communities against Boko Haram and warns that unless this is done, the group will continue to expand its operations and conduct devastating attacks like this one that erode the government’s legitimacy.

Source:

“Failure to learn from our Boko Haram experience,” vanguardngr.com (Nigerian media outlet), 19 April 2022. https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/04/failure-to-learn-from-our-boko-haram-experience/

The train attack was obviously staged to embarrass and blackmail the Federal Government. They downed a military jet and attacked the Kaduna Airport twice. The steady massacres and attacks of defenceless communities in Southern Kaduna as well as Plateau and Benue states by herdsmen terrorists have gone largely ignored by the Buhari government. The parlous economic situation and near anarchy due to the failure of the Federal Government to protect innocent and defenceless people have continued to put a question mark on the positive legacy this regime has recorded. We failed to learn from our Boko Haram experiences, thus validating the dictum that those who fail to learn from their experiences are doomed to repeat them. We hope the next regime will review the actions of major actors of this administration in mismanaging our security.

Image Information:

Image: 81 Division NA – Camp Zairo, 2017.
Source: Hussaina Muhammad (VOA)
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:81_Division_NA_-_Camp_Zairo,_2017.png
Attribution: CC x 2.0

Argentina Gets Closer to China-Led Economic and Multilateral Institutions

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Argentina and China sign agreements to construct critical infrastructure such as nuclear power plants.

Argentina and China sign agreements to construct critical infrastructure such as nuclear power plants.

“The ambassador in Beijing assured that they will help Argentina get closer to the objective of its ‘formal entry’ into the BRICS.”

The accompanying passages suggest that Argentina’s political leadership would like to move the country away from Western economic and multilateral institutions, which often demand strenuous and politically challenging macroeconomic reforms and structural adjustments.  Meanwhile, China has presented the most obvious alternative for Argentina given that the two countries have shared a robust economic relationship for many years.  The leading edge of that relationship was always development-oriented in nature.  Now, Argentina has displayed a willingness to embed itself in economic and multilateral institutions with a major Chinese presence.  Argentina will participate as a special guest at future BRICS Summit gatherings.  It will also apply to join the organization’s New Development Bank, according to Argentina’s left-leaning financial newspaper Ámbito Financiero.  The country has stated its desire to permanently join the BRICS grouping in the future, for which Beijing has expressed initial support.  Other events have also signaled a rapidly changing strategic environment in Argentina, such as the recent signing of the Memorandum of Understanding to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative, says leading Spanish-language wire service Agencia EFE.  Argentina’s successful application to the Asian Infrastructure Bank in March 2021; China’s financing of nuclear power plants in Argentina; and Argentina’s desire to purchase the JF-17 Chinese-built fighter jet are just a few other recent examples that show China’s burgeoninginfluence in the country. 

Sources:

“Argentina participará en la próxima cumbre del grupo de los BRICS (Argentina will participate in the next summit of the BRICS group),” Ámbito Financiero (Argentina’s left-leaning financial newspaper), 7 May 2022.   https://www.ambito.com/argentina/participara-la-proxima-cumbre-del-grupo-los-brics-n5434293

Xi Jinping’s invitation… is extremely important, especially because of Argentina’s interest in joining the forum that has brought together Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa… the ambassador in Beijing assured that they will help Argentina get closer to the objective of its ‘formal entry’ into the BRICS.

Source:  “Argentina formaliza la adhesión a la iniciativa china de las nuevas rutas de la seda (Argentina formalizes adherence to the Chinese Belt and Road Intiative),” Agencia EFE (the leading Spanish-language wire service), 11 May 2022.   https://www.infobae.com/america/mexico/2022/05/11/como-el-cartel-de-sinaloa-y-el-cjng-han-innovado-la-produccion-de-cocaina-en-colombia/ 

Argentina formalized… the Memorandum of Understanding that it signed with China in February, which seals the adhesion of the South American country to the Belt and Road Initiative…. The document foresees cooperation projects in connectivity infrastructure, such as routes, railways, bridges, civil aviation, ports, energy and telecommunications…. The agreement will have a term of three years and will be automatically renewed for equal periods of three years, unless one of the parties gives notice that it terminates it at least three months in advance.

Image Information:

Image caption:  Argentina and China sign agreements to construct critical infrastructure such as nuclear power plants.
Source:  https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Argentina_y_China_firman_contratos_para_construcci%C3%B3n_de_cuarta_y_quinta_central_nuclear_01.jpg
Attribution:  CC BY-SA 2.0

India Cancels Plans To Purchase Russian Equipment

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SU-30MKI India.

SU-30MKI India.

“The ongoing conflict in Russia and Ukraine has also resulted in delays in the supply of spares for the fighter aircraft fleet.”

The Make in India initiative initially encouraged the Indian Armed Forces to gradually purchase domestic weapons or equipment whenever possible, before establishing import ban lists in the past year (see: “India Orders More Domestically Produced Self-Propelled Artillery System,” OE Watch, #3 2022).  However, as the accompanying excerpted articles report, Russia’s war in Ukraine is forcing the Indian government to reexamine certain acquisitions and upgrades for the armed forces that could further boost the Make in India initiative.  The article from the independent English-language newspaper The Hindu reports Minster of Defense Rajnath Singh’s comments in early May 2022 after the government cancelled plans to acquire and upgrade two systems from Russia.  He mentions that the government is drawing lessons from the war in Ukraine to become more self-sufficient and acknowledges that there will be short-term economic issues while becoming less dependent on imports.  The article from the English-language independent news magazine India Today reports that India’s Air Force cancelled a purchase of 48 Mi-17 V5 helicopters from Russia in support of the Make in India initiative.  Government officials claimed that “the decision to withdraw the tender for the 48 helicopters was taken long before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and that the Indian Air Force is now going to support an Indian effort for a helicopter. The article from the English-language daily Live Mint reports on the Indian government’s decision to cancel a plan to upgrade a number of its Su-30 fighters just days after cancelling the purchase of Mi-17s.  The article notes that the government made the decision because of the war in Ukraine and the Make in India initiative.  It also notes that the Indian Air Force had planned to upgrade 85 Su-30s with better radar and electronic warfare capabilities.  The article mentions that there are delays for spare parts for the fighters and that, while India has stocked up on enough for now, “it is expected that the supply of these spares and other equipment may become an issue in near future.”  Overall, India did not say that it would stop looking to Russia to acquire or upgrade systems, but the war in Ukraine is causing India to reassess how much it will depend on the Russian defense industry.

Sources:

“Self-reliance vital to protect nation’s sovereignty: Rajnath Singh,” The Hindu (independent English-language newspaper), 5 May 2022. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/self-reliance-vital-to-protect-nations-sovereignty-rajnath-singh/article65385058.ece

…Self-reliance in defence is essential not only for building domestic capacity but also safeguarding the sovereignty of the country, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said on Thursday…

…Talking of ‘Aatmanirbharta’ in defence, Mr. Singh said our past experiences had taught us that India could not depend on imports for its security. “Recent conflicts, especially the situation in Ukraine, have told us that not just defence supplies, but commercial contracts are also prone to be affected when it comes to national interests,” he stated.

In such a situation, self-reliance was necessary not only for building domestic capacity, but also for maintaining our independence, Mr. Singh said…“We may not even find it economical in the beginning. But we are very clear about this, that in the middle and long-term, it will help in building the foundation of a robust industrial base not only in the defence sector, but in every sphere of the industry,” he asserted…

Source: Manjeet Negi, “To boost Make in India, IAF cancels plans to buy 48 Mi-17 choppers from Russia,” India Today (English-language independent news magazine), 16 April 2022. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/make-in-india-iaf-mi-17-choppers-russia-1938341-2022-04-16

Aiming to support the Make in India initiative in the Defence programme of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Indian Air Force has decided to cancel plans to buy 48 more Mi-17 V5 helicopters from Russia.

Top government sources told India Today that the decision to withdraw the tender for the 48 helicopters that was taken much before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out and has nothing to do with the global scenario.

“The tender for 48 Mi-17V5 helicopters has been withdrawn in view of the push for indigenisation. The IAF would now be supporting an indigenous programme for helicopters,” the sources said.

Source: “India shelves ₹35,000 cr plan to upgrade Su-30 fighter fleet amid Russia-Ukraine war,” Live Mint (online version of the financial English-language daily newspaper), 8 May 2022. https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-shelves-rs-35-000-cr-plan-to-upgrade-su-30-fighter-fleet-amid-russia-ukraine-war-11652006926134.html

Several factors have shelved the Indian Air Force’s plan to upgrade its Su-30 MKI fighter aircraft fleet. The factors include the war between Russia and Ukraine and current policy of Make-in-India of the Indian government.

 IAF had planned to equip the Su-30 aircraft with more powerful radars and the latest electronic warfare capabilities to make it more powerful as per the latest standards.

IAF was planning to upgrade 85 of their planes up to the latest standards in collaboration with the Russians and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited. The plan has been put on the backburner for now in view of the present situation…

The ongoing conflict in Russia and Ukraine has also resulted in delays in the supply of spares for the fighter aircraft fleet…

Sources said even though the spares situation is manageable at the moment and expected to remain so in the near future as India had stocked them up in a considerable amount post the Uri surgical strikes and the ongoing China conflict. However, it is expected that the supply of these spares and other equipment may become an issue in near future…

Image Information:

Image: SU-30MKI India.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SU-30MKI_India.jpg
Attribution: Public Domain

Kazakhstan Cancels Soviet-Era Parade To Focus on Combat Readiness

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Kazakhstan Republican Guard.

Kazakhstan Republican Guard.

“Units of the Air Assault Forces worked out tactical methods of combat operation in urban areas during the main stage of the complex, interdepartmental strategic command and staff exercise ‘Brave Resistance – 2022“

Like Russia, Kazakhstan commemorates the Soviet Union’s victory over Germany in World War II.  A few weeks before 9 May, the Kazakh government announced that it planned to cancel its Victory Day military parade for the third year in a row.  The government also cancelled the parade in 2020 and 2021 because of the global pandemic.  While some Russian media speculated that the Kazakh government’s decision was a sign that it wanted to move away from Russian influence because of the war in Ukraine, the accompanying excerpted articles provide insight into the real reasons behind the Kazakh government’s decision.

The article from the news website Tengri News reports that the government cancelled the parade “because of the budget as well as the need to resolve other issues,” which included “combat readiness” and “the execution of tasks to ensure security and defense of the state and military facilities.”  The article from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Defense website Sarbaz reports on how Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces carried out the “Brave Resistance – 2022” exercise in the city of Almaty as part of its combat readiness effort.  The article notes that the exercise involved a battalion tactical group with multiple support units as well as other agencies in an urban operation.  The article from the semi-independent newspaper Vremya and the second article from Tengri News report that the exercise took place in multiple regions and involved similar circumstances.  While the government of Kazakhstan has stated that it would not recognize the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, it has stayed neutral in the war in Ukraine.  As Kazakhstan faces a difficult economic outlook this year, it likely looked to cut costs where possible while not sacrificing the readiness of its armed forces.

Sources:

Meirim Smaiyl, “Почему не будет военного парада, ответили в Минобороны (The Ministry of Defense answered why there will not be a military parade),” Tengri News (news website in Kazakhstan), 13 April 2022. https://tengrinews.kz/kazakhstan_news/pochemu-ne-budet-voennogo-parada-otvetili-v-minoboronyi-466522/

…“There are no plans to hold a military parade in Kazakhstan in 2022 because of the budget as well as the need to resolve other issues. In particular, the priority to have the required level of combat readiness and mobility of the Armed Forces, and the execution of task to ensure security and defense of the state and military facilities,” said the ministry’s press service…

Last year, because of the epidemiological situation in the country, the military parade in honor of Defender of the Fatherland Day and Victory Day was also cancelled.

Source: “Активная фаза учения «Батыл Тойтарыс – 2022» прошла в Алматинской области (The active phase of the exercise “Brave Resistance – 2022” has started in the Almaty Oblast),” Sarbaz (news website of Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Defense),” 15 April 2022.

https://sarbaz.kz/army/aktivnaya-faza-ucheniya-batyl-toytarys-%E2%80%93-2022-proshla-v-almatinskoy-oblasti-221041839/

Units of the Air Assault Forces worked out tactical methods of combat operation in urban areas during the main stage of the complex, interdepartmental strategic command and staff exercise “Brave Resistance – 2022”…

According to the exercise plan, a battalion tactical group made up of an air assault battalion, reinforced by reconnaissance, artillery, engineering and sapper units, and UAV crews, in coordination with personnel from Special Operations Forces and the National Guard, carried out the task of freeing an area captured by a group of bandits…

Source: Langa Chereshkayte, “Сложные условия (Difficult conditions),” Vremya (semi-independent Russian-language newspaper in Kazakhstan), 18 April 2022. https://time.kz/articles/reporter/2022/04/18/slozhnye-usloviya

The exercise “Brave Resistance – 2022” with live firing took place at the Oymash training facility of the Aqtau garrison. According to the plan of the exercise, naval infantry was tasked with freeing a settlement from an armed group…

Additionally, during the tactical portion of the exercise, units of the border guards and the armed forces carried out combat training to strengthen the state border in order to prevent reserves from penetrating…

Source: “Военные учения прошли в Жамбылской области (A military exercise took place in the Zhambyl Oblast),” Tengri News (news website in Kazakhstan), 15 April 2022. https://tengrinews.kz/kazakhstan_news/voennyie-ucheniya-proshli-v-jambyilskoy-oblasti-466547/

…It is noted that during the exercise of soldiers in the Matybulak training facility in the Zhambyl region, the situation was simulated to take in account the experience of modern armed conflicts, in which illegally armed groups deployed in mountainous border areas…

…motorized rifle and tank units eliminated the enemy, while National Guard personnel cleared out the area…

Image Information:

Image: Kazakhstan Republican Guard.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kazakhstan_Republican_Guard.JPEG
Attribution: Public Domain