Monthly Archives: January 2022

Iran Agrees to Gas Swap with Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan

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Workers construct a pipeline in Iran near Azerbaijan.

Workers construct a pipeline in Iran near Azerbaijan.

“Deficits and pressure drops caused early gas outages.”

Iran has long had strained relationships with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.  On 28 November 2021, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi signed a tripartite gas swap agreement with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev and Turkmenistan President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov.  The excerpted article from the Mehr News Agency, an outlet affiliated with the Islamic Ideology Dissemination Organization in turn supervised by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, details the background to the deal, the problems Iran has faced with its neighbors to the north, and the benefits Iran expects from the deal. 

Even though Turkmenistan is a Sunni country, Iran historically had regarded it as a useful trading partner to make up for gas shortfalls.  However, around 2007, Turkmenistan repeatedly moved to adjust the price of gas supplied to Iran, its long-term contract notwithstanding.  While this created some tension, Iranian officials nonetheless continued their bilateral trade until Turkmenistan cut it off due to Iran’s accrued debts.

Iranian relations with Azerbaijan are more complex.  Two-thirds of the world’s Azeris live in Iran while barely one-third live in Azerbaijan.  Azerbaijan is also largely Shi’ite, but this ethnic and sectarian overlap has only heightened suspicion.  Azerbaijan is a largely secular state and Iran is an Islamic Republic and a Shi’ite-led theocracy.  Tehran also resented Baku’s extensive relationship with Israel and suspected that Israeli agents used Azerbaijan as a launch point for operations against Iran’s nuclear program.  Tension flared in October 2021 when Iran held war games along its frontier with Azerbaijan, a move that Baku saw as an implicit threat.

Concerns aside, the recent agreement, which took effect on 22 December 2021, outlines a gas swap in which Iran would receive gas from Turkmenistan and supply an equivalent amount to the Azerbaijani enclave of Nakhchivan, a territory bordering Iran but separated from the rest of Azerbaijan by Armenia.  The Iranians expect 1.5 to 2 billion cubic meters of gas to be transported annually.  Aliyev signaled that the deal could enable a sharp turn in the trajectory of relations.  “From now on, Iranian-Azerbaijani relations will develop in all areas,” he said.  He also celebrated the fact that Azerbaijan was peeling Iran away from Armenia.

The Raisi government hopes that the gas swap will help alleviate energy problems in northern Iran in time for winter.  The excerpted article suggests that low pressure and inadequate gas contributed to energy shortages.  Unmentioned in the article is that, in 2008, gas shortages combined with impassable roads due to heavy snows led to unrest in several northern provinces that took the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to quell.

Source:

“Qarardad-e Swap-e Gazi Seh Janehbeh (Tripartite Gas Swap Contract),” Mehr News Agency (affiliated with the Islamic Ideology Dissemination Organization supervised by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei), 30 November 2021. https://www.mehrnews.com/news/5363718/

…Last night, news was published that contract for gas swap with a capacity of 1.5 to 2 billion cubic meters from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan through Iran had been concluded. This important agreement was announced at a time when gas imports from Turkmenistan had long been suspended because of financial disputes and with Azerbaijan because of political disputes. In this regard, last night, Minister of Oil, Javad Owji, said, “Since December 2016 , Iran’s gas relations with Turkmenistan had been cut off, but with the conclusion of this agreement, a step forward was taken in the energy relations between the two countries….”

The most important aspect of this agreement is the restoration of relations with Turkmenistan. Iran and Turkmenistan gas relationship that began in 1996 with the conclusion of a 25-year contract. Gas imports from Turkmenistan were strongly in Iran’s favor due to the low price of that country’s gas compared to other countries. Of course, beginning around 14 years ago, Turkmenistan suddenly began to demand price increases against the opposition of Iranian officials. However, relations between Iran and Turkmenistan continued to be good until 2013, but in 2016, Turkmenistan cut off gas exports to Iran due to accumulated debts….

The most important advantage of the swap can be considered the proof of security and the country’s ability to transfer energy between two different countries. This advantage becomes even more important in relation to the relations between Iran and Azerbaijan, which have been embroiled in political disputes in recent months. It should be emphasized that Iranian gas delivered to Azerbaijan is located in the small and strategic region of Nakhchivan….

The final advantage of this contract is to solve through the right of transfer the problem of gas deficits and pressure drops in the northern provinces of Iran. In recent years, such deficits and pressure drops caused early gas outages in industries and problems in domestic consumption. In this regard, the head of the National Iranian Gas Company stated, “In addition to economic importance, this contract will help the stability of the gas network in the north and northeast of Iran.”

Image Inforrmation:

Image: Workers construct a pipeline in Iran near Azerbaijan.
Source: Fars News Agency
https://cdn.yjc.news/files/fa/news/1400/9/10/15218933_862.jpg
Attribution:

Iran-Pakistan Bolstering Naval Cooperation

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“The combat group…promotes maritime, military, and defense ties.”

On 5 December 2021, three Pakistani ships made a port call in Bandar Abbas, Iran’s largest Persian Gulf port and the site of the headquarters of the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN), the regular military’s corollary to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Navy (IRGC-N).  The excerpted article from the Young Journalists Club, an affiliate of the state’s official Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting group, covers the three-day visit and the ceremony held upon the arrival of the three Pakistani cruisers, the second such port call in eight months.  That the IRIN rather than IRGC-N has taken the lead on the Pakistan visit does not diminish its importance.  Traditionally, the IRGC-N maintains priority of operations in the Persian Gulf where much of Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure lies.  The IRGC-N and IRIN operate alongside each other in the Strait of Hormuz, while the IRIN has taken the lead on operations in the Gulf of Oman and northern Indian Ocean.  As such, much of the interaction between the navies of the two countries would involve the IRIN.

The rhetoric surrounding the visit suggests solidarity between Pakistan and Iran with regard to the line that their navies have a greater right to operate in littoral international waters than outside powers and particularly the U.S. Navy.  As China has increased its military cooperation with Pakistan and announced a long-term economic program with Iran, it also suggests a growing anti-American alliance that plays into China’s geopolitical vision.

The visit is especially important now as it suggests a commitment to maintain strong Iran-Pakistan military ties despite a past diplomatic and military proxy war between Pakistan and Iran with regard to Afghanistan.  Unsaid in the article, however, is whether Iran is willing to sacrifice its traditionally good relationship with the Indian Navy in pursuit of stronger ties with Pakistan.  If so, this would suggest a greater regional alignment is underway that coincides with the establishment of the United States, India, Australia, Japan “Quad.”

Source:

“Navgoruh-e Razmi Niruye Daryayi Artesh-e Pakistan Varud Bandar Abbas Shod (Pakistani Naval Combat Fleet Arrived in Bandar Abbas),” 5 December 2021. https://www.yjc.news/fa/news/7988186

…This morning, commanders of the first region of the [regular] Iranian Navy and Pakistani Army and Defense Attache Brigadier-General Imran Kashif welcomed the Pakistani Navy’s combat group to Bandar Abbas, where they berthed at the docks of Islamic Republic of Iran Navy’s first naval zone. The group consists of three cruisers and is due to be in Bandar Abbas for three days…. The presence of Pakistan’s combat group in the Islamic Republic of Iran is aimed to enable bilateral meetings between naval commanders and also to promote maritime, military and defense ties between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan. Pakistan’s ambassador to Iran was also present at a welcoming ceremony for the Pakistani naval ships. Captain Qadir Vazefah, deputy commander of the first Naval Zone at Bandar Abbas, said such naval interactions definitely show that regional states are well-positioned to manage regional security, especially among friendly and brotherly Muslim countries. He continued, “There is no need for [military] units from outside the region in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, or the Gulf of Oman.” He added, “These port calls will further deepen these relationships.”

A Turkish Perspective on the Geopolitics of the Russia-Ukraine Crisis

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“The U.S. focus on prioritizing the Far East– particularly the defense pact between the U.S.-U.K.-Australia (AUKUS) coupled with the trauma created by the withdrawal from Afghanistan– have rattled the Euro-Atlantic security community.  The Russia-Ukraine crisis erupted right in the aftermath of these developments…”

“We are looking at a long-term challenge and diplomatically exhausting marathon in the region and beyond.” 

While critical reporting of the conflict in Ukraine is updated hourly, the accompanying passage from independent Turkish-language news and analysis site Perspektif takes a step back and puts the crisis into the greater context of global geopolitics and great power competition, including analysis of the possible long-term repercussions of the crisis.

The authors highlight the timing of the crisis, which is significant in two ways.  First, the crisis erupted in the immediate aftermath of several developments that they claim had already “rattled” the Euro-Atlantic security community.  In particular, the “defense pact between the U.S.-U.K.-Australia (AUKUS),” which they note reflects the “U.S.’s focus on prioritizing the Far East in recent years”; and “the trauma created by the withdrawal from Afghanistan.”  They suggest the crisis erupted at a time when Euro-Atlantic relations were not at their peak.  Timing is also important because the crisis is taking place when both the European Union (EU) and NATO are forming their future strategies.  As the authors point out, the EU is in the process of finalizing its five-year Strategic Compass document, while NATO is preparing to ratify its new Strategic Concept for the next 10 years at the 2022 Madrid Summit.  The authors note that the crisis will “leave deep marks” in these documents, which will inform these two organizations’ future strategies. 

The authors also point out that NATO will likely come to the aid of Ukraine, even militarily; while also warning that Ukraine contains certain unique “sensitivities” and should not be the stage for the next proxy war among great powers.  Here they are likely alluding to the fact that Russia views eastern Ukraine as an extension of itself, making this an  existential issue for Russia unlike the southern Caucasus or Syria.  Finally, they point out that European countries have so far shown solidarity against Russia; however, they have differing levels of threat perceptions from Russia.  In particular, “the Germany-France-Italy-Spain quad” does not perceive Russia as high a threat compared to East/Southeast Europe and the Baltic countries, which does not bode well for a long-term European unified front against Russia.

Source:

Mithat Çelikpala and Fatih Ceylan, “Dinyeper’de Kabaran Sular Ukrayna ve Rusya’yı Nereye Sürükler? (Where will the Rising Waters in the Dnieper [River] Lead Ukraine and Russia?),” Perspektif Online (independent Turkish-language news and analysis site), 10 December 2021. https://www.perspektif.online/dinyeperde-kabaran-sular-ukrayna-ve-rusyayi-nereye-surukler/

The Ukraine crisis, re-ignited as of November 2021, is taking place within the big picture in ways that can be summarized below:

1. In light of the U.S.’s recently adopted global strategy; the U.S. is in an open wrist fight with China in the Far East.  Throughout 2021, the U.S. did not refrain from maintaining a military presence in the Taiwan Strait and the South/East China Seas to deter China; even though Biden had expressed that they do not intend to start a “Cold War” with China.  The contention between the U.S.-China is among the top challenges on the international agenda.

2. The competition between these two countries is starting to expand into a greater geographic area, from the Middle East to the Mediterranean, from the Balkans to East/Southeast Europe, to include the greater Black Sea basin, within the framework of China’s BRI project.

3. Due to the Ukraine crisis, relations between the U.S./West/NATO and Russia have entered a period of spiraling tension.  The situation has triggered an increased U.S. military build-up in the region and created circumstances that directly impact Black Sea security.  Tension in the region will ebb and flow until a sustainable middle ground (modus vivendi) regarding Ukraine can be achieved within the strategic contention between great powers.

4. The U.S. focus on prioritizing the Far East– particularly the defense pact between the U.S.-U.K.-Australia (AUKUS) coupled with the trauma created by the withdrawal from Afghanistan– have rattled the Euro-Atlantic security community.  The Russia-Ukraine crisis erupted right in the aftermath of these developments and resulted in both sides pulling their swords while also trying to establish dialogue.

5. Ukraine is not a member of NATO; it is a partner.  Therefore, when Ukraine is attacked, NATO’s article 5 does not apply.  On the other hand, it can be predicted that, in such a scenario, NATO and its members will provide all kinds of support, including military support, to Ukraine.  However, it should be remembered that Ukraine has sensitivities that make it impossible for it to be the stage of a proxy war.

6. In the face of the Ukraine crisis, European countries have so far shown solidarity; but this does not mean that there is total agreement among them regarding the threat they perceive from Russia.  In this context, for example, the Germany-France-Italy-Spain quad’s threat perception from Russia is different than that of East/Southeast Europe-Baltic countries.  This is the main obstacle to [European countries] having a united stance.

7. The Ukraine crisis, which has been ignited in two separate time periods within the year, has erupted at a critical time.  The European Union is at the late stages of preparing its five-year Strategic Compass document.  NATO’s Strategic Concept for the next 10 years will be accepted at the 2022 Madrid Summit.  If the crisis with Russia deepens at a time when these two important documents are being prepared, there is no doubt that its repercussions will leave deep marks in their future strategies. 

8.  In reality, Russia has lost Western Ukraine, but directly/indirectly gained control of the Crimea peninsula and the Donbass region. It will continue its efforts to legitimize the control it has established in these regions.  It would be realistic to say the problems related to each of these areas are “frozen” and call them “hot disputes” which are difficult to solve; and to establish positions based on this view.  However, this does not mean the recognition of illegitimate/illegal Russian domination in these areas.  We are looking at a long-term challenge and diplomatically exhausting marathon in the region and beyond.  The shadow of the geopolitical/geostrategic competition that impacts the entire world and that has become inflamed this year is poised to create new challenges and disputes from Ukraine to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean via the Aegean.

Image Information:

Image: Portrait of Count Alexander Suvorov.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Suvorov#/media/File:Suvorov_Alex_V.jpg
Attribution: Public Domain

New Russian Film About Syrian Operations Promotes Kremlin Narrative

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“The motion picture ‘Sky’ can be considered one of the reference points for modern Russian cinema, allowing, figuratively speaking, to translate the arrows of Russian cinema, reorient, reformat it in the spirit of patriotism.”

The Russian military has entered its seventh year of combat operations in Syria.  The Kremlin-supported media has portrayed their country’s military involvement in an overall positive light.  According to their narrative, Russian forces have helped to decimate the terrorist threat in Syria, bringing large portions of the country back under Syrian government control.  Their participation, however, has not been cost-free.  While exact numbers are classified, more than 100 Russian security forces personnel have been killed in Syria since 2015, with an equal or greater number of injured. 

One of the most dramatic and painful losses occurred in November 2015, when a Russian Su-24M bomber was shot down by a Turkish fighter after an alleged border violation.  The Russian film industry, with financial help from the Ministry of Defense (MoD), recently released a movie “Небо” (Sky) to commemorate this event.  As the two accompanying excerpts describe, this film illustrates how the Russian media can transform a misfortune into a triumph and further strengthen the Kremlin’s narrative.

The first excerpt from the mostly independent Nezavisimoye Voennoye points out that “the film is based on real events that took place in Syria, when, during a combat mission on 24 November 2015, a Russian Su-24 was shot down by a Turkish fighter.”  It reminds readers that the aircraft’s “navigator (Murakhtin) was rescued, while the pilot, Peshkov was shot by terrorists in the air.”  The article quotes the commander of the Airborne Forces, who asserts that “the film ‘Sky’ can be considered one of the reference points for modern Russian cinema, allowing, figuratively speaking, to translate the arrows of Russian cinema, reorient, and reformat it toward the spirit of patriotism.”  The second excerpt from the popular Russian media site Vokrug TV provides some additional background.  Not surprisingly, “the main villain in the film is an invisible puppeteer from the United States who controls the actions of terrorists….”  This site also highly praises this new movie, asserting that “all this is filmed so spectacularly that even the last skeptic will stir up something like patriotism in his soul.”

Source:

Daria Lyubovik, “Небо летчик Олег Пешков: Вышел первый российский фильм о войне в Сирии (Sky of the pilot Oleg Peshkov: The first Russian film about the war in Syria was released),” Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obozreniye (mostly independent), 25 November 2021. https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2021-11-25/1_1167_sky.html

The film company “Triix Media” together with the Ministry of Defense and with the participation of the channel “Russia 1” presented a film about the feat of the Russian pilot Oleg Peshkov, who died during the anti-terrorist operation in Syria. This is the first art picture, by the decision of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, included in the list of mandatory viewing in the Armed Forces.

The film is based on real events that took place in Syria, when, during a combat mission on 24 November 2015, a Russian Su-24 was shot down by a Turkish fighter. The crew – Oleg Peshkov and Konstantin Murakhtin – managed to eject. Navigator Murakhtin was rescued, and Peshkov was shot by terrorists in the air. 

…After the premiere of the film “Sky”, “NVO” asked to share his impressions of the Hero of the Russian Federation, the commander of the Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Andrei Serdyukov.

– In the Soviet Union, films about the Great Patriotic War were an incentive to educate the younger generation. Does the Ministry of Defense plan to further promote the theme of glorification of people who are responsible for the security of the state?

– “I agree that in our youth there was a lot of glorification in cinema, serious films were shot, the heroes of which became an example for the younger generation. We were brought up on catch phrases from our favorite films. The motion picture ‘Sky’ can be considered one of the reference points for modern Russian cinema, allowing, figuratively speaking, to translate the arrows of Russian cinema, reorient, reformat it in the spirit of patriotism. I am sure that in the future, with the support of our leadership, many new patriotic films will be released.”

Source: Leonid Kiskarkin, “Небо: военная драма о современном Маресьеве (Sky: a military drama about modern Maresyev).” Vokrug TV (popular Russian media site), 17 November 2021. https://www.vokrug.tv/article/show/16370996521/

The film describes the feat of Russian pilots, whose plane was shot down by the Turks on the border with Syria. …On November 24, 2015, a Russian Su-24M bomber with tail number 83 took off from the Khmeimim military base to carry out a combat mission: launching a missile strike against terrorists. Near the Syrian-Turkish border in the Yayladagi region of Hatay province, a Turkish fighter jet shot down a plane of the Russian military space forces. The crew of two was ejected from the burning bomber. One of the pilots was shot in the air by opponents of the Assad regime, another was able to land safely in an area controlled by terrorists and was rescued during a special operation by the Russian military. This story formed the basis of the military drama “Sky,” filmed with the support of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation….

…The main villain in the film is an invisible puppeteer from the United States who controls the actions of terrorists…

…The film culminates in the same ill-fated flight during which our bomber fell victim to a dastardly Turkish Air Force strike…. All this is filmed so spectacularly that even the last skeptic will stir up something like patriotism in his soul.

Russian Theorists Contemplating Preemptive Wars

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Portrait of Count Alexander Suvorov.

Portrait of Count Alexander Suvorov.

“If earlier, belligerents tried to preempt the enemy both before and during military (combat) actions, now it is advisable to transfer the main efforts in this matter to the beginning (and even before the beginning) of the armed struggle.”

The confidence of the Kremlin leadership to employ, or threaten to employ, military force is increasing as Russia continues to modernize its armed forces.  This growing assurance may have reached the point where Russian military experts are now advocating preemptive military actions to defend the country’s interests.  The accompanying excerpt comes from an article in Voennaya Mysl’, the flagship journal of the Russian Ministry of Defense.  The authors argue that given the rapid nature of modern conflict and the increasing threats of potential adversaries, “it is now advisable to transfer the main military efforts to the beginning (and even before the beginning) of the armed struggle.”

The authors begin by describing how great Russian military leaders in the past understood the importance of striking the enemy first.  Citing General A. Suvorov, they assert that “money is costly, human life is even more valuable, but time is the most precious thing!”  Perhaps hinting at Russia’s demographic challenges, they point out that “the superiority gained from a surprise attack makes it possible to more than compensate for a smaller number of his troops.”  The authors go on to suggest that Russia’s growing arsenal of “high-precision long-range sea and air-based weapons” now gives the military the ability to conduct a preemptive strike against the enemies of Russia.

Framing time as a spatial concept, the authors liken this preemptive thinking as an element of a “further development of theory and practice of ‘deep operation.’” Quoting another Russian military theorist, they assert that “in a war, the victory is won by the side that strikes earlier… which is necessary in order to break the enemy’s moral and material resistance and force him to submit to our will.”  The authors conclude by stressing the importance of domestic propaganda when striking first, whereby the military’s “preemption of a potential enemy in action,” will gain the “support and develop the defense consciousness of the Russian people.”

Source:

Major General V.V. Kruglov, Colonel A.S. Shubin, “О возрастающем значении упреждения противника в действиях (On the growing importance of anticipating the enemy in actions),” Voennaya Mysl’ (flagship journal of the Russian Ministry of Defense), December 2021. https://vm.ric.mil.ru/Nomera  (pp. 27-34).

…All social and military processes are accelerated to such an extent that there is a significant increase in the likelihood of missing any fundamental changes in military affairs that could threaten the security of the state. …In this regard, military science is faced with the urgent task of studying the problem of rational use of the time factor in military affairs.

…Military history shows that one of the first generals who most deeply understood the importance of time in battle was A.V. Suvorov…. Suvorov expressed this circumstance in immortal words: “Money is expensive, human life is even more valuable, and time is the most precious thing!”

The superiority gained from the surprise of the attack made it possible to more than compensate for the small number of his troops.

…More than 100 years ago, the Russian military theorist émigré A. Zalf approached this problem in the following way: “In a war, the victory is won by the side that strikes earlier… in order to break the enemy’s moral and material resistance and force him to submit to our will.”

…The emergence of new means of warfare, in particular high-precision long-range sea and air-based weapons (cruise missile “Caliber”, hypersonic missile systems “Dagger”, “Zircon”, gives rise to such new forms of military action as a strategic strike and a missile air-naval strike.

… in fact, is a consequence of the further development of theory and practice “Deep operation”.

…The arsenal of the RF Armed Forces should contain types of weapons, forms and methods of action that are unexpected for the enemy, guaranteeing the destruction of the aggressor in any conditions of the situation. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that at present the use of the time factor has acquired a qualitatively new feature that generates the following pattern. If earlier, belligerents tried to preempt the enemy both before and during military (combat) actions, now it is advisable to transfer the main efforts in this matter to the beginning (and even before the beginning) of the armed struggle.

In conclusion, it is appropriate to recall the words of the patriot of Russia A. Shcherbatov, addressed to its citizens many years ago: “Under modern conditions of international struggle, victory remains with the fighting force behind which there is a nationwide determination to win at any cost and at whatever cost. victims. It is easy to create such a mood in the Russian people, since the state principle always prevailed over personal interest….”  In connection with the permanent aggravation of the military-political situation in the world, when an armed conflict or war may break out at any moment and one must be ready for them, military scientists and military command and control bodies at all levels should intensify efforts to find and implement the latest effective forms and methods of military (combat) actions, including those involving preemption of a potential enemy in action, and thereby support and develop the defense consciousness of the Russian people.

Image Information:

Image: Portrait of Count Alexander Suvorov.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Suvorov#/media/File:Suvorov_Alex_V.jpg
Attribution: Public Domain