Tag Archives: Iran

Iran Wants Sukhoi-35 Fighters From Russia

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Russian Sukhoi-35 at the 2015 MAKS Airshow.

Russian Sukhoi-35 at the 2015 MAKS Airshow.

We hope to get these fourth-generation fighters in the future.

Recent reporting suggests that Iran is working to modernize its air force, which is widely considered the most deficient branch of its military. The deficiency in Iran’s air force rests largely on its outdated and increasingly obsolete jet fighters. Iran continues to fly F-14s sold to the Shah before the Iranian Revolution, and Iran is the only country that continues to fly the U.S.-made F-4 Phantom II, last produced more than 40 years ago. Iran also flies the Sukhoi SU-24, whose manufacture Russia ended 30 years ago; 40-year old MiG-29s; and a few Chengdu J-7s, a Chinese license-built version of the MiG-21. Iran claims its air force possesses more than 100 fighter jets, which is likely an exaggeration that does not take into account the end of production runs, natural attrition and aircraft losses, and cannibalization of some planes for spare parts.

In a bid to rectify these deficiencies, the excerpted article from the Borna News Agency, an outlet affiliated with Iran’s youth and sports ministry, suggests that the Iran is in the market to upgrade and overhaul its fleet. It quotes the commander of the Iran’s Army Air Force as saying that the Iranian military is considering the purchase of Russian Sukhoi-35s, an upgraded version of the Sukhoi-27 that it currently possesses. The article describes the Sukhoi-35 as “one of the most powerful 4th generation fighters in the world,” claiming it can engage up to eight air-to-air targets simultaneously. While in recent years Iran has concentrated its acquisitions and developments on drones and precision missiles, it now appears that a potential Iranian shopping spree—enabled by high oil prices and potential sanctions relief—will also aim to revitalize its air force. Such a purchase would also cement a long-term training relationship with Russia.

Source:

“Kharid-e Jangandeh Sukhoi-35 as Rusiya dar Dastor-e Kar-e Artesh-e Iran (The Purchase of Sukhoi-35 fighters from Russia is on the agenda of the Iranian army),” Borna (media outlet affiliated with the Islamic Republic’s youth and sports ministry), 4 September 2022. https://www.borna.news/بخش-سیاسی-3/1372678-خرید-جنگنده-سوخو-از-روسیه-در-دستور-کار-ارتش-ایران

Army Brigadier General Hamid Vahidi, commander of the Islamic Republic’s Army Air Force, told the security and defense Correspondent of the Borna News Agency about the purchase of fighter jets for the Army Air Force, saying that the purchase of Russian Sukhoi-35 fighters is on the agenda. He stated that the purchase of Sukhoi-30 is not in the plan but currently the purchase of Sukhoi-35 from Russia is under consideration and added: “This issue is on the agenda and we hope to get these fourth generation fighters in the future.” The commander of the Air Force also emphasized that the final decision on the purchase of Sukhoi-35 fighter jets from Russia rests with the Army Command and the Armed Forces General Staff.

Image Information:

Image: Russian Sukhoi-35 at the 2015 MAKS Airshow
Source: Dmitry Terekhov, https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9d/MAKS_Airshow_2015_%2820615630784%29.jpg?20150929070701
Attribution: CCA – SA 2.0

Iran Intercepts Crystal Meth Shipment From Afghanistan

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Customs officials discover 500 kilograms of crystal meth in a truck crossing from Afghanistan.

Customs officials discover 500 kilograms of crystal meth in a truck crossing from Afghanistan.

The discovery of a 500 kg shipment of crystal meth today marks the sixth large shipment discovered.

In the world of narcotics sales, Afghanistan has long been the world’s top producer of illegal opium. However, the excerpted article from general interest Iranian website Newsin.ir reports that a customs inspector at Mahiroud, an Iranian border post near the midpoint of Iran and Afghanistan’s 572-mile frontier, recently intercepted a truck carrying 500 kg of crystal meth coming from Afghanistan. Crystal meth is made from the ephedra plant, widely available in Afghanistan. That the seized haul was crystal meth suggests that the Taliban are expanding their embrace of the illicit economy beyond the sale of opium. Presumably, the Taliban seek to raise funds as they struggle with the responsibility of going from insurgents to national rulers, responsible for funding ordinary government operations. To that end, Afghanistan’s illegal narcotics have created numerous problems for Iran. Not only does Iran serve as a transport corridor for the illicit products from Afghanistan, but its citizens are also consumers. Moreover, while Iran fights its own domestic drug war at great cost in blood and treasure, many within the Iranian regime are also complicit in the trade and fan the flames of organized transnational organized crime.

Source:

 “Kashef-e Mohamuleh 500 Kilo-ye Shisha dar Morzha-ye Sharq-e Tawsat Gomrak (Discovery of 500 kilograms of Crystal Meth at Eastern Border Customs),” Newzin (general interest Iran news website), 4 September 2022. https://newsin.ir/fa/content/24366494

…Farideh Zubaydi, deputy legal and customs supervisor, said, “Since the beginning of this year [March 21, 2022], customs discovered five large shipments of narcotics, mainly shipments of meth with Afghan origins. Today’s discovery makes that six major discoveries. He added: “Shipments of 580 kg, 153 kg, 400 kg, 61 kg and 1118 kg of narcotics had been discovered by customs colleagues since the beginning of the year. The discovery of a 500 kg shipment of crystal meth today marks the sixth large shipment discovered by customs. With divine blessings, while taking advantage of minimum available facilities, our colleagues this morning at Mahiroud Customs post in South Khorasan province were able to discover 500 kilograms of crystal meth that was professionally embedded in the tanker floor of the truck from Afghanistan.

Iran’s Customs Deputy added: “Reports received from Mahiroud Customs in South Khorasan indicate that at 9:30 a.m., the trainer of the drug-sniffing dogs of this post was inspecting a white tanker truck driven by an Afghan national, and taking into account the risk indicators, managed to discover the professional placement of 500 one-kilogram packets of crystal meth.

Image Information:

Image: Customs officials discover 500 kilograms of crystal meth in a truck crossing from Afghanistan.
Source: Fars News Agency https://media.farsnews.ir/Uploaded/Files/Images/1401/06/14/14010614000228_Test_PhotoN.jpg
Attribution:

Venezuela Plays Host to China, Russia, and Iran in International Military Games

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Venezuelan tanks during a military parade.

Venezuelan tanks during a military parade.

 “This week, Venezuela will become the first country in the Americas to host military competitions organized by Russia, known as the Army Games.” 

For the first time, the Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela played host to Russia’s International Army Games.  The event, held in the city of Barquisimeto in Lara state, was a kind of “Olympics” of war games, according to an article in U.S. government-operated Spanish- language Voz de América.  While the Venezuelan armed forces have participated six times in Russia’s International Army Games, the list of participating countries coupled with the location in the Western Hemisphere presents a direct challenge to the United States, according to the article.  Furthermore, an article in left-leaning Argentine daily Clarín notes that the International Army Games began just one day after annual military exercises sponsored by the U.S. Southern Command.  The newspaper highlights Russia’s traditional role as a security provider to Venezuela, as well as its desire to show strength in the Western Hemisphere.  The International Army Games demonstrate Venezuela’s continuing desire to be considered a serious power and U.S. adversary in the Western Hemisphere.  They also demonstrate Russia’s enduring interest in projecting power in Latin America and the Caribbean and to blunt diplomatic isolation on the world stage.  Lastly, these military exercises are likely to further the interoperability of participating militaries with principal adversaries such as Russia, China, and Iran.  

Source:

“Olimpíadas de la Guerra’ en Venezuela pueden  generar ‘celo y vigilancia’ en la region (War Olympics’ in Venezuela can generate ‘zeal and vigilance’ in the region),” Voz de América (the Spanish-language version of the state-owned media outlet), 9 August 2022.  https://www.vozdeamerica.com/a/olimpiadas-guerra-venezuela-celo-vigilancia-region/6694410.html   

This week, Venezuela will become the first country in the Americas to host military competitions organized by Russia, known as the Army Games… The Russian Ministry of Defense… has organized these military sports annually since August 2015.  They usually last a couple of weeks and spokesmen close to the Kremlin refer them as the “Olympics of War”…The Army Games 2022 are being held in a context of worldwide condemnation of the Vladimir Putin government for its armed attack on Ukraine. 

Source: “Rusia, China e Irán lanzan sus ‘juegos de guerra’ para desafiar a Estados Unidos en Venezuela (Russia, China and Iran launch their ‘war games’ to challenge the United States in Venezuela),” Clarín (left leaning daily in Argentina), 10 August 2022. https://www.clarin.com/mundo/rusia-china-iran-lanzan-juegos-guerra-desafiar-unidos-venezuela_0_HyifirkIYK.html  

The war and hunger games come together in Venezuela.  Live and direct military competitions with Russia, China, and Iran will be held from August 13 to 27 to challenge the United States in the city of Barquisimeto, Lara state, in the northwest of the country, while the streets have been heating up with the protests of the teachers affected by “starvation wages”…Vladimir Putin, whose armed invasion of Ukraine is in its sixth month, aims to demonstrate Russia’s military strength in the Latin America and Caribbean area.  

Image Information:

Image caption:  Venezuelan tanks during a military parade 
Source:  https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:BTR-80A[RG1] _VEN.jpg 
Attribution: CCA-SA 2.0

Iran’s Flawed Statistics and Growing Drug Addiction

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Iranian police display Afghan opium seized inside Iran.

Iranian police display Afghan opium seized inside Iran.

“This means a human capital disaster in the country.” 

Iran has dealt with a long history of drug addiction.  For centuries, Iranians openly cultivated opium and used it both medicinally and recreationally.  In the first decade of the 20th century, Iran participated in a number of international opium conferences to try to reduce and regulate the opium trade.  Because addiction was so great, however, it sought to slowly devolve access rather than end it precipitously.  In the years immediately prior to the revolution, clerics pointed to the prevalence of opium addiction to societal corruption under the shah and promised a new, cleaner order. 

After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the clerical leadership took Draconian measures to end drug addiction.  Imprisonment and public execution of addicts and traffickers became commonplace.   It did not work.  Opium cultivation exploded in Afghanistan against the backdrop of the Soviet invasion, civil war, and state failure.  Iran became both a transit and consumer country as Afghan drug smugglers struck deals with corrupt Iranian clerics and security officials.  Ultimately, the Ministry of Health formed a counternarcotics headquarters and the high-level Expediency Council established the Independent Committee against Drugs and Narcotics to combat addiction.

In the excerpted interview from prominent reformist newspaper Aftab-e Yazd, Ali Hashemi, the former chairman of the Independent Committee, discusses the latest statistics on addiction and abuse.  His assessment is that the Islamic Republic’s ninth government, which correlates to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s second term, corrupted statistics.  In the article, Hashemi shows that, contrary to the Ahmadinejad-era claims, the rate of addiction has increased steadily.  Unstated but underlying his interview is technocratic disdain for the denial of reality inside the Islamic Republic under hardline administrations.  While he references the lack of current statistics, he omits mention that the current Iranian administration of Ebrahim Raisi is rooted, like Ahmadinejad’s, more in the camp of hardliners.  Regardless, Iranian government efforts to stamp out addiction have clearly failed.  Hashemi expresses special concern that the recent increase in drug addiction is among the young.  This has profound implications both for society and the military. It both suggests that many young Iranians have given up hope for their future, suggests problems with both crime and health loom, and can affect military readiness (see “Iran’s Revolutionary Guards To Expand Drug Treatment Center,” OE Watch, Issue 8, 2022).

Sources:

“Faz-e Jadid Markaz-e Daman-e Shahid Ziadian bezudi Ahdas Mishavad (The Old Wound of Addiction in Iran and the 800 Million Rial Cost Per Addict Each Year),” Aftab-e Yazd (prominent reformist newspaper published in Yasd), 31 July 2022. https://aftabyazdonline.ir/4913-زخم-کهنه-اعتیاد-در-ایران-و-خسارت–۸۰۰-میلیونی-هر-معتاد-به-کشور-در-سال.html 

[Former chairman of the Expediency Council’s Independent Committee against Drugs and Narcotics] Ali Hashemi, while examining the status of addiction in the country and Iran’s performance in the field of countering narcotics and reducing the rate of addiction, says, “In the strategic study of addiction status in the country… there are two basic indicators based on the prevalence rate of addiction and the incidence rate of addiction, according to which we can comment on the performance of the country, the current situation and future approaches in the field of addiction.”  

In this regard, he provides statistical indicators of the state of addiction in the country and adds, “In the year 1987-88, there were two million drug users in the country.  In 2004-2005, an addiction study was carried out in coordination with the cooperation of the Headquarters of the Fight against Narcotics and the Ministry of Health.  This study placed the number of users at 3.76 million. 

The Drug Control Headquarters of the ninth government [2012-2016] placed the prevalence of addiction in the country at 800,000 drug users, but because the statistics were not correct, they had to correct these statistics and, two years later, the Drug Control Headquarters announced there were 1.2 million consumers in the country.  This too was wrong and based on manipulated statistics but, in 2015, the then-Secretary General of the Headquarters was forced to announce the statistics so that the total number of consumers was 4.4 million. 

The former secretary general of the country’s drug control headquarters, citing the existing statistics on the incidence of addiction, continues, “Currently, the official statistics are that 4.4 million Iranians use drugs, among whom 2.8 million are addicts and the others occasional recreational users. Of course, we don’t have the statistics from 2015 to the present, however. Still, the statistics show that in just one decade, from 2005 to 2015, the number of drug used increased by 630,000 people. 

Hashemi notes, “Unfortunately, so far, scientific research has not been conducted in a comprehensive way at the national level but, what is known, is that according to official statistics, from 2005 to 2015, the number of consumers has increased from 3.76 million to 4.40 million people, which means that the number of new people came from the “young” stratum.  This means a human capital disaster in the country…. 

Hashemi continues, “If we want to consider only this one indicator [arrests], it shows the depth of its tragedy, i.e. in the last 43 years, of the approximately 19 million people arrested, 65 percent of them were directly and indirectly (including repeat offenders) related to drug offenses.” 

Image Information:

Image: Iranian police display Afghan opium seized inside Iran 
Source: Islamic Republic News Agency (Government)
https://img9.irna.ir/d/r2/2019/06/25/4/156425841.jpg
Attribution: Public Domain

Iran Unveils Stealth Speedboats 

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The IRGC displays speedboats it alleges have stealth capability.

The IRGC displays speedboats it alleges have stealth capability.

“Our Navy is a complete strategic force.” 

The excerpted article from Serat News, an outlet associated with the state-run, hardline Kayhan newspaper, reports on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Navy (IRGC-N)’s unveiling of new, supposed stealth speedboats at the Malik Ashtar festival held just outside Iran’s main Persian Gulf port Bandar Abbas. The IRGC often names exhibitions, exercises, units, and festivals after either religious figures or religious artifacts as part of an effort to imbue the Guards with a religious patina.

That the IRGC-N would mass produce speedboats is consistent with long-held tactics and strategy.  The chief lesson the IRGC learned in the wake of their clash with the U.S. Navy during Operation Praying Mantis in 1988 is that they could not confront the U.S. Navy directly given the superiority of American ships.  They then turned to small speedboats to harass slower, larger shipping.  Speedboats are cheaper and quicker to manufacture than large ships.  Should the IRGC-N load these speedboats with explosives and conduct suicide strikes against larger ships, they hope they can do enough damage both to cripple a ship and to cause enough casualties to get the American domestic audience to question the U.S. Navy’s presence in the region.  The drawback of the IRGC-N speedboats is their range.  They might be able to operate throughout the relatively narrow and shallow Persian Gulf, but they are of little value in the northern Indian Ocean or Arabian Sea.  This, alongside the IRGC’s financial interest in the security of Iran’s offshore gas and oil infrastructure, explains why the IRGC-N claims the entirety of the Persian Gulf as its area of operation while the regular Iranian Navy operates outside the Gulf.  In practice, this makes the Persian Gulf more harrowing for international shipping.  Commercial shipping, Arab militaries, and the U.S. Navy report more professional communications and de-confliction with the regular Iranian Navy than with the IRGC-N. 

Source:

“Qayeqha-ye Tondaru Sepah Radar Gariz Shod (IRGC Stealth Speedboats Evaded Radar),” Serat News (media outlet associated with the state-run hardline Kayhan newspaper), 25 July 2022. https://www.seratnews.com/fa/news/593277 

Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Navy [IRGC-N], said on the sidelines of the Malik Ashtar Festival that based on the orders of the Supreme Leader…we have been witnessing the festival for 12 years.  He stated that additions have been made to this [IRGC-N] force: Over the past three years, we have had eight additions.  Generally, these were of domestic equipment provided to our warriors and by God’s grace, we will witness such happy events again in the future. 

Tangsiri remarked that it was one of the honors of the Navy and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to be able to use domestic knowledge and products developed by Iranian scientists.  He continued: “We have everything from tanks to amphibious tanks to fixed-wing aircraft and drones….” Tangsiri stated, “We in the Navy are proud that our equipment is made by knowledge-based companies. Some of the drones and quadcoptors that we use are actually from our knowledge-based companies, and we have put the order of the Supreme Leader, who said to use our knowledge-based companies, intro practice. And we are proud that the Navy has done this for years.  

The commander of the IRGC-N also spoke about the new radar-evading speedboats: We have made the hulls of our boats radar evasive and we are trying to use domestically made hulls.  Emphasizing that the extent and quality of our presence in the region has caused the enemy to flee from the Persian Gulf, he said, “We have always told the countries of the region that we can establish security ourselves and, by the grace of God, with the departure of the Americans, more security has been established in this sensitive and strategic region.” 

Image Information:

Image: The IRGC displays speedboats it alleges have stealth capability  
Source: Tasnim News https://newsmedia.tasnimnews.com/Tasnim/Uploaded/Image/1400/09/20/14000920165842669242530410.jpeg 
Attribution: CC SA 4.0

Iran Reportedly Using New Carrier, Submarines To Expand Reach of Drones 

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Drones onboard Iran’s first “drone carrier” assigned to Iran’s southern fleet, July 2022.

Drones onboard Iran’s first “drone carrier” assigned to Iran’s southern fleet, July 2022.

“Combat UAVs were flown from the Iran-made Fateh submarine[RG1] .” 

Iran was among the first countries in the Middle East to recognize the military utility of drones.  Whereas Turkey developed its indigenous drones only a decade ago, Iran began building drones in 1985 to fly over and surveil Iraqi trenches during the Iran-Iraq War.  Over subsequent decades, the stable of Iranian drones proliferated with different models available to the regular Iranian military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and domestic law enforcement agencies.  While drones allowed Iran to project force within range of its land borders, unless the Iranian military was to outsource drone operation to its proxies—as it has in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen—it was unable to utilize them farther afield.  The problem with outsourcing drone operations, however, is that it gives control to militias that are not always in sync with Iranian aims and objectives. 

The excerpted article from the Iranian Students News Agency, a semi-official agency supposedly run by students, but which projects the government’s official line, discusses July exercises in the northern Indian Ocean in which the Iranian Navy unveiled a “drone carrier” capable of launching numerous drones with surveillance, general attack, and kamikaze capabilities.  It is unclear from the reporting if the drone carrier will be able to recover the drones it launches.  Such a capability enables the Iranian military to strike with drones over the open ocean where, previously, Iran’s capabilities were limited.  A greater concern for those seeking to counter Iranian aggression would be the article’s claim that Iran also launched drones from both its domestic-made submarine and its Russian-built Kilo-class import.  While the range and underwater endurance of Iranian submarines are limited compared to U.S. nuclear submarines or the German-built diesel submarines, which Israel uses, submarine-launched Iranian drones would enhance Iran’s special operations by enabling the Iranian military to evade radar when conducting offensive drone operations throughout the region.

Source:

“Ravanmaye az Avalin Navdasteh Pehpadbar Niruye Daryayi (Unveiling of the Navy’s First Drone Carrier),” Iranian Student News Agency (semi-official student led news agency projecting the government line), 15 July 2022. https://www.isna.ir/news/1401042416384 

The army’s first strategic navy drone fleet was unveiled with the presence of Army Commander-in-Chief Amir Maj. Gen. Mousavi in the Navy’s Southern Fleet.  According to the Iranian Student News Agency quoting the public affairs department of the Army, the regular Navy unveiled its first drone carrier fleet in the presence of both the commander-in-chief of the Army and the Navy.  It consisted both of surface and sub-surface units carrying all types of combat, surveillance, and suicide drones in the southern fleet of the regular Iranian Navy. 

In the unveiling ceremony for this flotilla, a variety of advanced and cutting-edge drones produced by the Army and the Ministry of Defense including the Pelican, Homa[RG1] , Arash, Chamrosh, Zhubin, Ababil-4, and Bavar-5 drones flew over the waters of the Indian Ocean. 

According to this report, in addition to the flight of vertical and sea-based UAVs from the deck of surface units, for the first time, combat UAVs were flown from the Iran-made Fateh submarine and Kilo-class Tareq[RG2]  submarine…. 

Major General Seyyed Abdul Rahim Mousavi, commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, expressed his satisfaction with the successful deployment of combat drones…  He added, “As seen, surveillance drones have actually increased the intelligence capability of our vessels by hundreds of kilometers beyond the country’s borders, and combat and kamikaze drones are considered the Islamic Republic of Iran’s long hand in international waters and the open sea.  Both deter threats and, if necessary and the enemy makes a mistake, they will ensure the enemy will face a regrettable response. 

Image Information:

Image: Drones onboard Iran’s first “drone carrier” assigned to Iran’s southern fleet, July 2022 
Source: Iranian Students News Agency (Government)
https://cdn.isna.ir/d/2022/07/15/3/62319318.jpg?ts=1657874350773
Attribution: Public Domain

Iran Believes Turkey’s Rapprochement With Israel and Saudi Arabia Is a Threat

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The President of Israel, Isaac Herzog, and the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

The President of Israel, Isaac Herzog, and the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

“This dual-track rapprochement, along with the aforementioned factors specific to Iraq and Syria, has created the perception in Iran that a regional front might be in the making… with the primary aim of confronting Iran…”

Turkey’s activities and recent rapprochement with regional actors have created a perception in Iran that a regional front might be forming against Iranian interests.  On 27 June, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visited Turkey amid concerns that Turkey is strengthening relations with Iran’s main regional rivals, Saudi Arabia and Israel.  The Iranian Foreign Minister’s visit followed on the heels of visits by both Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid.  The accompanying articles analyze the regional power competition through these visits.  According to the excerpted article from security news focused al-Monitor, Turkey’s improved relations with Israel worry Iran because Turkey and Israel have recently had a convergence of interests in countering Iran’s influence in the Middle East, especially in Syria.

The second article from pro-government Turkish daily Sabah states that the visits of MBS and Yair Lapid demonstrate the concrete results of Turkey’s desire to normalize its relations with the regional players and strengthen its role in the regional power balance.  The article notes that Turkey’s normalization of relations with regional players is not intended to threaten the interest of third parties, including Iran, even though it might influence the calculations of other players.  The article further states that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are likely to repair their relationship quickly and strengthen their cooperation in trade, tourism, construction, energy, the defense industry, and new technologies.  Iran’s influence in the region through its proxies and the progress of its nuclear program concern the regional players, especially Israel.  Regional dynamics will likely have an impact on ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.  Ultimately, normalizing Turkey’s relations with Saudi Arabia and Israel will play a significant role in the power balance in the region and help curb Iran’s growing regional influence while ongoing, indirect negotiations continue between the United States and Iran to restore the 2015 nuclear deal.

Source:

Amberin Zaman,“Iran’s foreign minister checks in with Ankara as Turkey courts Tehran’s foes,” al-Monitor (globally read security news site with regionally based reporting),27 June 2022. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/06/irans-foreign-minister-checks-ankara-turkey-courts-tehrans-foes

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian [visited] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara… part of an effort to manage growing tensions between the prickly regional rivals.

Upon his arrival, Amir-Abdollahian said he would be discussing “comprehensive long-term cooperation” between Iran and Turkey with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu and Erdogan.

In any case friction over Israel, which has deepened as Turkey mends fences with the Jewish state, has taken a back seat to Iran’s other big concerns, observers say.  “Syria and Iraq are at the top of the list,” …“Iran is deeply worried about the prospect of a new Turkish military operation, especially if it’s going to involve Tel Rifaat,” Azizi told Al-Monitor.  He was referring to the Syrian town south of Aleppo that is close to the Shiite-majority town of Nubl and Al-Zahra that could also act as a gateway allowing Turkey and its Sunni rebel allies to expand their influence around Aleppo…

“From Iran’s point of view, this could be a prelude to the further expansion of the influence of Turkey toward central Syria, enabling it to limit Iran’s influence and create a new headache for the Syrian regime,” Azizi added.  Erdogan renewed vows to conduct another military operation against the Syrian Kurds today…

Iran’s other concern is Iraq, where Turkey is trying to limit Iran’s influence in the Iraqi political sphere by facilitating the formation of a unified front composed of the Kurdistan Regional Government and the country’s main Sunni faction.

At the same time, the escalation in Turkey’s military operations in Iraqi Kurdistan has raised concerns among Iran and its affiliated Shiite groups that Turkey may seek to establish a permanent sphere of influence in northern parts of Iraq.  Those worries were sharpened by KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani’s comments earlier this year about selling Iraqi Kurdish gas to Europe via Turkey to offset supply deficits stemming from sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

But on a wider regional scale, “what worries Iran the most is that Turkey has been improving its relations with Iran’s rivals, particularly Israel and Saudi Arabia,” said Azizi, the Iranian analyst.

“This dual-track rapprochement, along with the aforementioned factors specific to Iraq and Syria, has created the perception in Iran that a regional front might be in the making with the participation of Turkey, Israel and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf with the primary aim of confronting Iran,” Azizi said.

Source: Burhanettin Duran, “Bin Salman ve Lapid Ziyaretlerinin ardından… (In the aftermath of Bin Salman and Lapid’s visits…),” Sabah (pro-government Turkish daily),24 June 2022. https://www.sabah.com.tr/yazarlar/duran/2022/06/24/bin-selman-ve-lapid-ziyaretlerinin-ardindan

…official visits [by Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman and Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid] were significant because they demonstrated the concrete results of Turkey’s normalization policy and the country’s strengthening role in balancing the regional power equilibrium.  It is especially important to note that the normalization process has been shaped by a mutual commitment, as opposed to a request by either party, so that the relevant expectations can be assessed on a rational basis.  At the same time, the normalizing parties strive to ensure that their new relationship does not hurt the interests of third parties.  Again, each normalization process has its own dynamics and influences the calculations of others.

Indeed, the joint statement points in that direction.  Accordingly, the two nations aim to strengthen their cooperation regarding trade, tourism, construction and energy, as well as the defense industry and new technologies.

Having turned over a new leaf in its relationship with Riyadh, Ankara finds an opportunity to play a more active role in the region…  Meanwhile, Iran’s proxies and the progress of that country’s nuclear program, which ostensibly can build nuclear weapons, remain a source of concern for the entire region.  That situation, in turn, encourages all countries in the region, starting with Saudi Arabia, to become nuclear powers themselves.

Indeed, Tel Aviv is among those capitals in the Middle East, which are most unhappy with Iran’s growing regional influence…

Image Information:

Image: The President of Israel, Isaac Herzog, and the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Source: The Spokesperson Unit of the President of Israel, via Wikimedia,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Isaac_Herzog_state_visit_to_Turkey,March_2022%28GPOHA1_1042%29.jpg.jpeg
Attribution: CC-BY-SA-3.0 | Uploaded with pattypan

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards To Expand Drug Treatment Center

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Inauguration of the second phase of the Shahid Ziyadian Treatment Center, Tehran.

Inauguration of the second phase of the Shahid Ziyadian Treatment Center, Tehran.

“Sometimes it takes up to a year and a half to find the families of these individuals.”

On 25 June Brigadier General Hasan Hassanzadeh, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) for the greater Tehran region, visited the IRGC’s soon-to-be expanded Shahid Ziadian Treatment Center.  Hassanzadeh’s visit is significant for two reasons.  First, as the officer in charge of Tehran’s security from enemies foreign and domestic, he is on the fast track for promotion to the top levels of Iran’s security apparatus. Second is his choice to focus attention on drug addiction and other threats facing not only broader Iranian society, but also the Iranian military.   

The official media outlet of the Iranian Ministry of Defense, Holy Defense News Agency, describes the imminent expansion of the Shahid Ziadian facility from 1,500 beds to 2,600 beds.  By comparison, the James J. Peters Veterans Administration Medical Center in New York, among the largest Veterans Administration hospitals in the United States, has 1,663 beds.  While the excerpted article does not detail the ailments that the new facility treats, additional reporting suggests the primary goal of the facility is drug rehabilitation.  Photos from Fars News Agency depict young, military-age men in close quarters.  Hassanzadeh was also accompanied by Brigadier General Eskandar Momeni, Secretary-General of Iran’s Anti-Narcotics Headquarters. Post-revolutionary Iran has long had some of the toughest drug penalties in world.  However, in November 2017 Iran significantly loosened penalties for many drug crimes, perhaps signaling a recognition of the science behind addiction as well as the scope of the problem.  In 2009, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, the chief of Iran’s Law Enforcement Forces, said Iran produced 130,000 new addicts annually and acknowledged that more than one million Iranians were now addicted, mostly to opium and heroin.  In 2020, Naser Aslani, deputy head of Iran’s Drug Control Headquarters, reported that his agency counted 2.8 million addicts and estimated an additional 1.4 million remained unidentified.  The IRGC’s expanded facility in Tehran is a possible reflection of the scope of the problem and perhaps its growing impact on military readiness.

Source:

“Faz-e Jadid Markaz-e Daman-e Shahid Ziadian bezudi Ahdas Mishavad (New Phase of the Shahid Ziadian Treatment Center to be Constructed Soon),”, Holy Defense News Agency (official news agency of the Iranian Ministry of Defense), 25 June 2022. https://defapress.ir/fa/news/530666

General Hassan Hassanzadeh, commander of the Revolutionary Guards for Greater Tehran, said this morning [25 June 2022] at the National Conference for the Celebration of Rescue held at the Martyr Ziadian Treatment Center, “There are 1,500 clients in the Shahid Ziadian Treatment Center affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Greater Tehran.  Within the next six months, we will build a new phase of this center for 1,100 people….”

The commander of the Greater Tehran Revolutionary Guards Corps continued, “One of our problems in this center is the time it takes to find the families of the clients, because sometimes it takes up to a year and a half to find the families of these individuals.  Another activity of this center is to create vocational training workshops. For this reason, we are now looking to obtain orders for the sewing of military clothing by the clients of this center.”

Image Information:

Image: Inauguration of the second phase of the Shahid Ziyadian Treatment Center, Tehran
Source: Fars News Agency
https://www.farsnews.ir/photo/14001112000780

Iranian Trade With China Is Up, but So Is Political Risk

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The Iranian port of Chabahar has become a focal point of Sino-Iranian trade.

The Iranian port of Chabahar has become a focal point of Sino-Iranian trade.

“China’s imports from Iran… grew by 26 percent.”

Between 2018 and the end of 2020, Iran’s foreign reserves shrunk from $122 billion to just $4 billion.  However, its foreign reserves have since rebounded and are expected to be up to $43 billion by the end of 2022 thanks to record oil prices and a diplomatic environment more conducive to Iranian oil sales.  According to Chinese customs authorities cited in the excerpted article from Iranian financial website Bourse24.ir, a healthy chunk of this increase in foreign reserves appears to be due to increasing trade with China.  However, the dollar-enumerated trade can be deceptive. Iran often sells oil to China at a steep discount to avoid any questions about sanctions violations, especially as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps controls Iran’s energy sector and has a controlling interest in many Iranian shipping companies.  China also historically dumps cheaper manufactured goods in other states to the detriment of those countries’ own manufacturing base.  While Iran and China have signaled a mutual desire to increase trade and perhaps even military relations, any willingness by the Iranian government to allow greater Chinese exports into Iran would have high potential costs.  Chinese competition with Iran’s manpower-centric sectors, such as textiles and construction, could create a nationalist backlash against both China and Chinese nationals who might be visiting or working in Iran.  China and Iran might celebrate the current increase in trade, but further expansion carries risks.

Source:

“Tejarat-e Iran va Chin ba Rashad 18 dar sadi az 6 Milyard Dollar Gozasht (Trade between Iran and China Exceeds $6 billion with 18 Percent Growth),” Bourse24.ir (Iranian financial website), 25 June 2022. https://www.bourse24.ir/news/247196

…The latest statistics released by Chinese customs show that the country’s trade with Iran in the first five months of this year has grown 18 percent compared to the same period a year ago, reach $6.472 billion…. China’s imports from Iran in the first five months of 2022 grew by 26 percent compared to the same period a year ago, reaching $3.192 billion. China imported $2.535 million worth of good from Iran during the same period last year. China’s exports to Iran from January until April this year also grew 11 percent to $3.280 billion. China exported $2.946 billion worth of good to Iran between January and May last year.

Image Information:

Image: The Iranian port of Chabahar has become a focal point of Sino-Iranian trade
Source: Iran Kala Television
https://cdn.iktv.ir/images/thumbnail/20200510/11042013_xl.jpg

Iranian F-14 Crash Highlights Iran’s Need for New Fighter Contract

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An Iranian F-14 Fighter Jet.

An Iranian F-14 Fighter Jet.

Recent news of an Iranian F-14 crash reinforces the notion that Iran’s diminishing stable of military aircraft and its inability to manufacture more will increase pressure on Tehran to make major, multibillion dollar purchases—most likely from Russia or China.  The excerpted article from a media outlet close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Tasnim News Agency claims the fighter crash was a result of engine failure and illustrates the fact that Iran’s remaining F-14 fleet is far beyond the end of its life cycle.  Iran is the only country that continues to fly the F-14 and it is unclear how many are still operable.  Iran only had 79 operational F-14s when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini overthrew the Shah in 1979.  Over the decades, the number of Iranian F-14s has dwindled because of accidents and the need to cannibalize some aircraft for spare parts to support others.

While Iran likes to trumpet its domestic military industries, no Iranian manufacturer can make an aircraft as sophisticated as western countries, Russia, or China.  Currently, the necessities of the war in Ukraine raise questions about the number of Russian aircraft that the Kremlin will transfer to any other state in the near future.  At the same time, however, increasing oil revenue and both waivers and non-enforcement of sanctions give Iran greater shopping cash.  China may want to help Iran rebuild its air force since a major sale could help Beijing cement a decades-long relationship with Tehran.  An alternate and not mutually exclusive approach would be to augment its anti-aircraft missile capabilities.  Either way, the loss of one of its last F-14s over Isfahan will likely increase pressure on Iran to reconsider its air defense while coming to terms with the need to purchase a modern fighter aircraft from abroad.

Source:

“Soqut-e Havapeyma-ye Jangandeh F_14 dar Isafahan (Crash of an F-14 Warplane in Isfahan),”, Tasnim News Agency (media outlet close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), 18 June 2022. https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1401/03/28/2730359

The head of the army’s public relations department for the Isfahan region said, “The F-14 fighter plane suffered a technical malfunction this morning and the pilot and co-pilot landed by parachute, and were taken to Al-Zahra Hospital for treatment.  In an interview with Tasnim reporter in Isfahan, Rasoul Motamedi, referring to the incident for the F-14 fighter plane this morning, said: “This warplane suffered a technical malfunction in the engine at 10:30 a.m.…  The pilot and co-pilot of the aircraft were injured during the parachute landing, and were immediately taken to Al-Zahra Hospital for treatment, but the F-14 plane was destroyed.”

Image Information:

Image: An Iranian F-14 Fighter Jet
Source: Tasnim News
https://newsmedia.tasnimnews.com/Tasnim/Uploaded/Image/1401/03/28/1401032812560629425541164.jpg