Syrian Regime Forces Increase UAV Use Along Jordanian Border

An Ababil-3 UAV at an Iranian arms expo on Kish Island in November 2016.


“Iran has transferred many dual-use drones, with surveillance and bombing capabilities, to Daraa Governorate.”


Reported unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) use by Syrian regime forces and their allies along the border with Jordan has noticeably increased. Jordanian authorities claimed that they had intercepted at least five small drones smuggling weapons and/or illicit substances from Syria between June and mid-August 2023.[i] Two reports from Syrian opposition sources provide context to the recent uptick in UAV use by Syrian regime forces and their allies. The first accompanying excerpt, published by the Horan Free Gathering, an opposition group in southern Syria, stated that UAVs have been used to smuggle drugs since at least 2018, when the conflict was frozen in southern Syria. Recent clampdowns along the land border have prompted smugglers to rely more heavily on UAVs. The article claims that Iran has transferred several combat UAVs to Syrian forces in Daraa, making them “the regime’s new weapon in the province.” The second accompanying report, from the Syrian opposition media channel Syria TV, provides details on two recent Syrian regime UAV strikes against rebel leaders in Daraa Province. Per the report, both attacks were conducted at night using Iranian Ababil drones, and neither attack appears to have succeeded against its primary target, only causing damage to buildings. The reports note that the Ababil UAVs fly quietly at low altitudes and rely on human-planted targeting devices. While Iranian-backed regime forces have employed UAVs throughout the conflict, the uptick in their use in southern Syria is notable and likely to cause concern in neighboring Jordan and Israel.


Sources:

“بين تهريب المخدرات والعمليات الأمنية.. الطائرات المسيرة وسيلة النظام الجديدة

(From Drug Smuggling to Security Operations… UAVs are the Regime’s New Method),” 19 July 2023, Horan Free Gathering (southern Syria opposition group), https://www.horanfree.com/archives/13821

The regime’s use of small drones to smuggle drugs is not new. Since the settlement process in southern Syria at the end of July 2018, it began to use to smuggle drugs to Jordan, mainly high-value cocaine and “crystal,” in addition to smuggling some light weapons and ammunition…

A source for the Free Horan Gathering confirmed that Iran has transferred many dual-use drones, with surveillance and bombing capabilities, to Daraa Governorate, and has trained officers and members of the Syrian regime forces on using them, making it the regime’s new weapon in the province.


“الطائرات المسيّرة في درعا.. تكتيك عسكري جديد يوسع نفوذ إيران في سوريا

(UAVs in Daraa… New Military Tactic Expands Iranian Influence in Daraa),” Syria TV (Syrian opposition media network), 4 August 2023. https://tinyurl.com/sxssrr6v

From the beginning of last July until the second of August, 6 sorties were recorded by Ababil drones, west of Daraa, all of them flying after dark, according to what an informed source told Syria TV. On August 1, a drone targeted the house of the young man, Amjad Al-Mizal, in the town of Al-Yadoudah, west of Daraa, without recording any casualties. Abu Malik al-Zoubi, 35 years old, from the city of Tafas, west of Daraa, who witnessed the bombing of a house in the city on the 24th of last July, told Syria TV that an Ababil-2 drone targeted the house of journalist Muhannad al-Zoubi after midnight with a shell containing high explosives, causing substantial damage to the house…He added that these planes do not make a sound while flying in the area, and sometimes they do not emit light, and they fly at low altitudes to accurately hit their target…
A leading source in the opposition factions told Syria TV that officers from the Fourth Division recently supervised training operations for regime members on the use of drones at the headquarters of the Fifth Division in the city of Izraa in rural Daraa. The training included dozens of members of the regime’s army and its security services and aimed to improve their drone-handling capabilities, according to the commander. He added that the training focused on Iranian-made Ababil 2 and Ababil 3 drones, including those made locally, in addition to Quadcopters used by local militias to smuggle expensive crystal meth and cocaine to the Kingdom of Jordan and Arab countries.


Notes:

[i] Jordanian authorities also reported other UAV interceptions earlier in 2023. In May, a Jordanian airstrike killed a prominent drug dealer in Syrian territory. For more on “Captagon,” the key illicit substance smuggled from Syria, see: Lucas Winter, “Pharmaceutical Drugs and the Syrian War,” OE Watch,December 2015. 


Image Information:

Image:  An Ababil-3 UAV at an Iranian arms expo on Kish Island in November 2016.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ababil_3_UAV.jpg  
Attribution: CC 4.0


Iran Seeks To Counter Misinformation Circulating on Social Media

Clip of a video circulating on Iranian social media in which Iranians misidentify German-born Greek-Iranian actor Vassilis Koukalani as a Revolutionary Guards officer.

Clip of a video circulating on Iranian social media in which Iranians misidentify German-born Greek-Iranian actor Vassilis Koukalani as a Revolutionary Guards officer.


“A clip entitled, ‘IRGC Commander having fun with women abroad’ was released.”


Iranians are avid consumers of social media.  However, the popular embrace of social media is a double-edged sword.  The excerpted article from government media outlet Fars News Agency highlights Iranian efforts to counter misinformation circulating on social media. 

Many Iranians, especially those who approach state-run television and news agencies with cynicism, get their news from social media. Telegram is popular.  While the Iranian government discourages use of Facebook and Twitter, even Iranian officials use such platforms.  During the 2018-19 unrest, security forces even circulated photos of protestors on Twitter to crowdsource their identification.  Specifically, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) denounce the legitimacy of two clips that Iranians said depicted the misbehavior and corruption of a senior IRGC officer, but actually show German-born, Greek-Iranian actor Vassilis Koukalani.

That Iranians so readily believed that Koukalani’s clips depicted IRGC corruption, however, reflects the cynicism with which ordinary Iranians view the institution and the hypocrisy that they expect from public figures.  While Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei seeks to imbue revolutionary values in the next generation, it appears that multi-million dollar corruption scandals and human trafficking rings involving clerics have eroded public trust more broadly. The Iranian public’s readiness to believe ‘fake news’ regarding their leaders could also become a security issue for the regime.  In 2001, an Iranian diaspora television channel broadcasting from California sparked nationwide riots when it claimed that Iranian authorities had ordered the national soccer team to throw an important World Cup qualifier to prevent men and women from celebrating together.  Ironically, the excerpted Fars News Agency article will only exacerbate the regime’s credibility problem as Iranians could interpret the failure to correct future questionable social media stories as tacit admission that other videos and clips are real.


Source:

“Dorough-e Digar Aliyeh Sepah (Another Lie against the Revolutionary Guards),” Fars News Agency (official media outlet close to Iran’s security forces), 7 May 2022. https://www.farsnews.ir/news/14010217000011

Another Lie against the Revolutionary Guards

Recently, a clip entitled “IRGC Commander having fun with women abroad” or “IRGC Commander and his daughter dancing and singing in the car” has been released. The clip identified the person in the clip as a Revolutionary Guards commander. 

But the fact is that the person in the clip is a German-born mixed heritage actor, and his photo in an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps uniform is related to his role in one of the Zionist, anti-Iranian films in which he has starred.


Image Information:

Image: Clip of a video circulating on Iranian social media in which Iranians misidentify German-born Greek-Iranian actor Vassilis Koukalani as a Revolutionary Guards officer.
Source: Fars News Agency
https://media.farsnews.ir/Uploaded/Files/Images/1401/02/17/14010217000003_Test_NewPhotoFree.jpg
Attribution: none

Iran Initiates and Defends New Bread Subsidies Amid Deteriorating Economy

The Iranian government is seeking to clarify rumors surrounding bread price increases.

The Iranian government is seeking to clarify rumors surrounding bread price increases.


“The needy and low-income groups of the society can get the full advantage of these subsidies.”


Official Iranian media is trying to justify new domestic subsidies put in place to counter Iran’s worsening economy.  Iran is very sensitive to bread prices and like many other countries in the Middle East, is highly dependent on wheat and grain imports.  Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Iranian officials had said that wheat imports were on the rise.  On 7 May, the head of Iran’s Flour Producers Association said that Iran needed to import 20 million tons of wheat and that its reliance on the foreign grain supply, especially Russia’s, had never been so great.  While the Iranian government blames the domestic grain production shortfall on drought, Iranians say a greater responsibility may be the result of corruption and watershed mismanagement as the economic wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps wins contracts to build unnecessary dams regardless of whether such diversions prevent water flow to agricultural land.

The excerpted article from Iranian new outlet Fars News Agency seeks to correct misinformation circulating online and explain new subsidy policies.  While Iranians worry that bread rations are on the horizon, the article suggests that new requirements equip the bakeries to accept bank debit cards.  These, in turn, will automatically apply government subsidy payments based on income level.  As suggested in the article, the government designed the scheme to counter illegal profiteering among bakeries. While Iranian subsidy schemes aim to ameliorate the risks of social unrest, their expense to government coffers often involves trade-offs.  Shifting funding to grain subsidies has led to a decrease of support for chicken feed that in turn has led to greater expense and scarcity of chicken and eggs.  The impact of this was apparent during Iranian Nowruz (New Year) festivities.  As households were unable to accommodate the hospitality toward guests traditional during the period, Iranians explained that many residents of Tehran and other major cities decided instead to travel to the countryside where they might be relieved of the expense of feeding guests.  Iranians recognize the erosion of Nowruz hospitality as an unwanted sacrifice that illustrates just how dire their economic situation has become.


Source:

“Az Shaye’ah ta Vaghe’yat Yaraneh-e Nan (Bread Subsidy Cards: From Rumor to Reality),” Fars News Agency (official media outlet closely associated with Iran’s military and security services), 7 May 2022. https://www.farsnews.ir/news/14010217000044

Bread Subsidy Cards: From Rumor to Reality

From rumor to reality: The 13th government [the Raisi administration] has undertaken what the Rouhani administration should have done years ago, and out on the agenda removal of 4,200 tomans [subsidy]. The government intends to implement key economy reforms for the sake of justice and to eliminate the profits of certain people. Government officials have said they are ready to sacrifice their own reputations for this. One of the important issues in this regard is price liberalization and the direct payment of bread subsidies to the people. In this regard, some people published a photoshopped and false images of a “bread subsidy card.” The Central Bank’s deputy for New Technologies said in this regard: “The infrastructure is designed so that people can claim their subsidy at the same time by using a card while buying basic goods. In this way, the purchase cost is deducted from both the individual subsidy and the bank account.” This will subsidize only the flour used by the people, not all the flour of the bakeries. There is no need for a new card as purchases are made with the current bankcard of individuals. The price and manner of buying bread does not change….

For other basic goods, a monthly amount is provided to compensate for the increase in prices. The higher income groups pay a part of the cost of providing these goods, but the needy and low-income groups of the society can get the full advantage of these subsidies….


Image Information:

Image: The Iranian government is seeking to clarify rumors surrounding bread price increases
Source: Jam-e Jam Online, https://jamejamonline.ir/files/fa/news/1401/2/16/599366_453.jpg
Attribution: none

Khamenei Speaks on Necessity of Palestinian “Resistance”

Poster from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s webpage celebrating Palestinian “resistance” against Israel.

Poster from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s webpage celebrating Palestinian “resistance” against Israel.


“The Resistance fights against international terrorism.”


During his annual Qods Day speech, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei doubled down on the necessity to support regional “resistance” against not only Israel but also the United States and its allies.  The Iranian government labels terrorist actions as “resistance” and in recent years, in addition to Palestinian “resistance,” other regional groups such as Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and the Yemeni Houthis have also taken center stage on Qods Day.  In his televised address, excerpted here from his official webpage, Khamenei.ir, Khamenei argues that most Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza, and Israel proper, i.e., “the 1948… lands,” support Palestinian attacks.  This directly contradicts core assumptions shaping Western policymaking, but suggests that Iran claims it has popular approval to support and sponsor attacks against Israel, such as the sharp increase in stabbing attacks in Israeli towns and cities in recent months within the 1949 armistice lines.  Khamenei also contextualized Iranian support for Palestinian “resistance” within the greater fight for control in Lebanon, the battle against the Islamic State in Syria, and the fight against Americans in Iraq.  Khamenei is claiming wide victory for Iranian policy, a fact that he will probably use to double down on further rejectionism of Israel and an active U.S. role in the Middle East in coming years.  Any hope that Western diplomacy might lead to a change in Iranian behavior seems doubtful so long as Khamenei remains at Iran’s helm.


Source:

“Sokhanrani Televisiyon beh Monisabat Roz-e Jihani Qods (Televised Speech on the Occasion of World Qods Day),” Khamenei.ir (Khamenei’s official website), 29 April 2022.

https://tinyurl.com/2p886dfu

Resistance has been the Most Blessed Phenomenon

Polls show that almost 70 percent of the Palestinians in the 1948 and 1967 lands and in the surrounding camps encourage the Palestinian leaders to carry out attacks on the Zionist regime. This is an important phenomenon because it signifies the complete preparedness of the Palestinians to confront the usurping regime and it provides the mujahid organizations with the freedom to take military action whenever they deem necessary.

The jihadi moves of the people of Palestine in the two northern and southern parts of the 1948 lands, and at the same time, the massive rallies in Jordan and Eastern Quds, the brave defense of the Al-Aqsa Mosque by Palestinian youth, and the military maneuvers in Gaza indicate that all of Palestine has turned into an arena of resistance. At present, the people of Palestine are unanimous about continuing this struggle on the path of God….

The formation of the Resistance in West Asia has been the most blessed phenomenon in this region in recent decades. It was the magnificence of the Resistance that was able to cleanse the occupied territories of Lebanon of the pollution of the Zionists, pull Iraq out from the clutches of the Americans, save Iraq from the maliciousness of the Islamic State, and assist Syrian defenders in the face of the U.S. schemes. The Resistance fights against international terrorism, helps the resistant people of Yemen in the war that has been imposed on them, wrestles with the Zionist usurpers in Palestine and will bring them to their knees with God’s grace….The Islamic Republic of Iran advocates and supports the camp of Resistance. It advocates and supports the Palestinian Resistance. We have always said this, we have always acted on this, and we have stood by it.


Image Information:

Image: Poster from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s webpage celebrating Palestinian “resistance” against Israel.
Source: Khamenei.ir
https://tinyurl.com/2p96j56z
Attribution: none

Degrading Environmental Conditions in Iraq Providing Cover for Terrorism

U.S. Soldiers walk from the dining facility during a sandstorm at Forward Operating Base Warhorse, Iraq, July 4 (2009).

U.S. Soldiers walk from the dining facility during a sandstorm at Forward Operating Base Warhorse, Iraq, July 4 (2009).


“…the number of dusty days increased from 243 days to 272 days per year over the past two decades, and is expected to reach 300 dusty days per year in 2050.”


Over a three-week span in April and May, the Iraqi news agency Shafaq News reported at least three separate attacks in which ISIS fighters took advantage of dust storms to attack Iraqi positions.  The attacks themselves are not novel, as ISIS and other rebel groups have used dust storms and sandstorms to conceal their movements during attacks in both Syria and Iraq for years.  Nor were the attacks particularly impactful, relegated to brief reports in local media.  The frequency and breadth of this year’s dust storms, however, have drawn substantial media attention.  As detailed in the accompanying excerpt from the influential Qatari outlet al-Jazeera, the number of annual “dusty days” is expected to reach 300 by the year 2050, up from 243 at the start of the millennium and 272 at present.  A major reason for this is Iraq’s accumulating environmental problems, which include ongoing drought, expanding desertification, extreme summer heat, and decreased water flows in the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers.  Iraq’s dysfunctional political parties are unlikely to muster sustainable responses to these challenges, allowing the spiraling cycle to continue.  Those frustrated at the negative social impacts caused by environmental degradation are likely to channel this against authorities, giving ISIS and other insurgent groups an opening to continue recruiting among the increasingly disaffected population.


Sources:

“بالتزامن مع عاصفة ترابية.. داعش يهاجم الجيش في الموصل والحشد يدخل الإنذار

(ISIS attacks the army in Mosul during dust storm, as PMF goes on alert),” Shafaq News (Iraqi news agency), 6 April 2022. https://tinyurl.com/yck9dbmy

On Wednesday, ISIS militants attacked Iraqi army units in the city of Mosul, the center of Nineveh Governorate. A statement of the 44th Brigade in the Popular Mobilization (Ansar al-Marja’iya) stated that… “a very dense dust storm hit the city of Mosul at the time of the attack by ISIS.”

Source:

“جرحى بهجوم لداعش في الانبار مستغلا عاصفة ترابية تضرب المحافظة

(Injuries in ISIS attack in Anbar taking advantage of dust storm in the province),” Shafaq News (Iraqi news agency), 19 April 2022. https://tinyurl.com/2p8wz9xa

Imad Al-Dulaimi, the mayor of Al-Rutba district, western Iraq, revealed on Tuesday that six soldiers and civilians were wounded by ISIS militants who took advantage of a dust storm that hit the area.

Source:

“مسؤول حكومي: هجوم “البو طراز” خارج حدود ديالى وداعش استغل العاصفة

(Government official: Albu Tiraz attack outside of Diyala’s borders, as ISIS takes advantage of storm),” Shafaq News (Iraqi news agency), 2 May 2022. https://tinyurl.com/yndch5bj

Eyewitnesses in the village of Albu Tiraz revealed that ISIS militants took advantage of the dust storm and lack of vision to carry out the attack, as visibility did not exceed 10 meters.

Source:

“العواصف الترابية تضرب مدن وقرى العراق طوال السنة.. تعرف على الأسباب

(Reasons why dust storms hit Iraqi cities and villages throughout the year),” al-Jazeera (influential Qatari news outlet), 19 April 2022. https://tinyurl.com/p793253f

…according to the statistics recorded by the General Meteorological Authority, the number of dusty days increased from 243 days to 272 days per year over the past two decades, and is expected to reach 300 dusty days per year in 2050. About 70% of agricultural land in Iraq is degraded or threatened with deterioration, as a result of climate change and the loss of vegetation cover, which is the main factor for soil stabilization…


Image Information:

Image:  U.S. Soldiers walk from the dining facility during a sandstorm at Forward Operating Base Warhorse, Iraq, July 4 (2009).
Source: https://www.dvidshub.net/image/186799/sandstorm
Attribution: Public Domain