Author Archives: Kevin Kusumoto

China Conducts First Live-Fire Exercise Integrating Aircraft Carriers and Amphibious Assault Ships

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“The biggest threat to China from the US Navy is nuclear submarines. Therefore, the inclusion of the Type 075 amphibious assault ship into the Shandong carrier group is a rehearsal for such a scenario.”

On 9 September, Chinese TV reported that the PLA Navy’s Shandong carrier group recently conducted combat exercises in the South China Sea and the West Pacific. The report highlighted vessels frequently seen escorting the carrier, such as the Type-055 destroyer, the Type-052D destroyer, and the Type-901 combat support ship, but more notably, it featured the first-time inclusion of the Hainan Type-075 amphibious assault ship.[i]

The first excerpted article, published on ifeng, an internet distribution channel for majority state-owned news network Phoenix TV, highlights three distinctive combat capabilities the Type-075 amphibious assault ship adds to this carrier group. First, the Type 075 can be equipped with powerful carrier-based aviation assets for combat deployment across air, sea, and land. These aviation assets can also provide electronic warfare capabilities and other important support functions, expanding the carrier group’s power projection abilities, amphibious operations, and threat response.[ii] Second, the amphibious assault ship’s aviation assets can take on some responsibilities of Shandong’s air wing, allowing the air wing to focus on other crucial sea and air operations. In a contingency, the amphibious assault ship can replace Shandong as a command vessel, ensuring continuity of operations. Lastly, the amphibious assault ship can deploy multi-role helicopters such as the Z-8 and Z-9, which significantly enhance the carrier group’s anti-submarine warfare capabilities.  The article emphasizes that the greatest threat to the PLA Navy beyond the second island chain is not U.S. aircraft carriers but U.S. nuclear submarines.[iii] These helicopters improve the carrier group’s ability to search, track, and neutralize enemy submarine activities, thereby securing unrestricted maneuvering. The second excerpted article by Professor Jiang Fuwei of Dalian Maritime University, published on one of China’s largest internet platforms, NetEase, highlights the addition of the Type-075 to the Shandong carrier group as a significant milestone for the PLA Navy and positions China to better address two key hotspots: the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. In the event of conflict with the U.S. and Philippines in the South China Sea, the PLA would be able to execute more diversified military operations on Philippine territory, such as air assaults and amphibious lift. Similarly, in a potential conflict over Taiwan, the Shandong carrier group is now better equipped for amphibious beach landings, raids, and securing key areas of operation, particularly along Taiwan’s east coast, which could complicate and delay U.S. military intervention. The Type-075 Amphibious Assault Ship is a critical addition for the PLA Navy’s carrier group, improving its ability to conduct anti-submarine and amphibious operations while expanding its capacity to execute long range expeditionary missions far from China’s shores.[iv]

Sources:

Zheng Jiyong, “南海演习编入075，能在最坏情况替山东舰挂帅，中方已准备好摊牌 (The Type 075 Is Incorporated into the South China Sea Exercise, it can Replace the Shandong Aircraft Carrier in the Worst Case Scenario, China is Ready to Show Its Cards),” iFeng (an internet distribution channel for Phoenix TV, a majority state-owned news network), 12 September 2024. https://news.ifeng.com/c/8coKnWTiFwi

The Chinese military recently released a report showing the Shandong aircraft carrier group conducting live-fire exercises in the South China Sea. Notably, the Type 075 amphibious assault ship, Hainan, was integrated into this group for the first time. The Type 075 has a displacement of 40,000 tons and is the largest surface combat ship in the Chinese Navy, following its aircraft carriers. It features a full-length flight deck and hangar and can carry at least 30 helicopters for various combat roles. The addition of this ship to the carrier group is akin to adding another quasi-aircraft carrier, which is significant for China’s strategic positioning in the South China Sea.

Within the second island chain, the PLA’s current capabilities are sufficient to handle any adversary. However, beyond the second island chain, the greatest threat to the PLA Navy is not US aircraft carriers, but US nuclear submarines. These submarines are difficult to detect, and their advanced performance presents a significant challenge to the PLA in the South China Sea.

This is why the Type 075 amphibious assault ship has been integrated into the Shandong aircraft carrier group. The Type 075 is equipped with powerful aviation assets, including anti-submarine helicopters designed to locate US nuclear submarines. Additionally, its air assets can take over some of the Shandong air wing’s responsibilities, allowing the carrier to focus more on sea and air operations. Lastly, in a contingency scenario, the Type 075 can serve as a replacement for the Shandong as the command vessel.

The Philippines is persistently challenging China’s position in the South China Sea. To address the issue with the Philippines comprehensively, we must be prepared to confront the US, which supports them. The primary threat from the US Navy to China comes from nuclear submarines. Consequently, the integration of the Type 075 amphibious assault ship into the Shandong aircraft carrier group serves as a rehearsal for such a scenario.

The essence of the South China Sea dispute is not a conflict between China and the Philippines, but rather a power struggle between China and the US. China is committed to safeguarding its sovereignty in the South China Sea and ensuring that Chinese ships can navigate the area freely without obstruction. The US aims to use the Philippines to destabilize the South China Sea, thereby controlling vital shipping routes and leveraging advantageous positions to constrain China.

Source: Jiang Fuwei, “西方卫星突然发现，航母两攻都在向南海集结，解放军将有大动作 (Western Satellites Suddenly Detect Both Aircraft Carrier and Amphibious Assault Ship are Gathering in the South China Sea, is the PLA Preparing for a Major Operation?),” Netease, (one of China’s largest internet companies, subject to regulatory oversight and censorship by China’s cyberspace Administration), 12 September 2024. https://www.163.com/dy/article/JBT3EB7605532V6O.html

Last week, the PLA released footage showing the Shandong carrier and the Hainan Type 075 amphibious assault ship conducting joint combat training. For the Southern Theater Command, this joint operational capability marks a milestone for our naval forces in addressing potential situations in both the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

The greatest advantage of aircraft carriers is their high tactical flexibility, enabling a carrier strike group to launch attacks, exploit weaknesses in enemy defenses—particularly against adversaries with limited maritime situational awareness—and reposition as needed. However, aircraft carriers are not designed to sustain continuous, large-scale blockades over a single area. As a result, carrier-based operations often follow a hit-and-run strategy, striking and then withdrawing to regroup for subsequent attacks.

When facing a significantly weaker adversary like the Philippines, the Shandong carrier can capitalize on its superiority in intelligence and situational awareness to carry out precise ‘surgical strikes,’ maximizing the effectiveness of its air wing. However, against a more capable opponent like the Taiwanese military, the carrier’s air wing may cause substantial damage, but the extended intervals between attacks would allow the Taiwanese military time to regroup. As a result, amphibious operations and providing cover for landing forces exert a greater strategic impact than relying solely on airpower.

For instance, if a conflict between China and the US were to break out in the South China Sea, the PLA would need to find ways to neutralize US Typhoon missile systems in northern Philippines. The problem is that the area is densely covered in tropical rainforests, making it difficult for satellites and aerial reconnaissance to be effective, rendering carrier-based air strikes inefficient. Therefore, the most effective method would be to deploy and attack from the ground. Similarly, in a Taiwan Strait conflict, the Shandong carrier group, equipped with amphibious landing ships, could act as a surprise force, conducting small-scale landing operations to disrupt Taiwan’s defensive posture.

Once the PLA begins organizing landings in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan’s forces will inevitably concentrate on the island’s western coast, leaving the eastern coast largely undefended. At this point, the Shandong carrier group could conduct landings on Taiwan’s eastern coast, targeting and destroying facilities, thus undermining any hopes of delaying the conflict until US intervention.

With the addition of the Hainan Type 075 Amphibious Assault Ship, it will play a crucial role not only in landing operations but also in anti-submarine warfare. The Hainan can establish an anti-submarine network around the fleet, making it nearly impossible for even US submarines, despite their world-class technology, to evade detection. This capability will significantly reduce the likelihood of US submarines launching surprise attacks on the PLA fleet.

Given time, the Shandong carrier group will not only serve as a vanguard for China’s blue-water operations but will also function as an aerial guardian for frontline landing forces during amphibious operations.

Notes:

[i] To watch the CCTV-7 news report on the Shandong carrier group exercise, see CCTV-7 China Defense and Military channel, CCTV, 9 September 2024. https://tv.cctv.com/2024/09/09/VIDEPTsqIV4ywN1OtwIHnDRe240909.shtml

[ii] Matthew P. Funaiole and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., “China’s New Amphibious Assault Ship Sails into the South China Sea,” CSIS (Center for Strategic & International Studies), 24 November 2020. https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-amphibious-assault-ship-sails-south-china-sea

[iii] Alexander Palmer, Henry H. Carroll, and Nicholas Velazquez, “Unpacking China’s Naval Buildup,” CSIS, 5 June 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/unpacking-chinas-naval-buildup

[iv] Conor M. Kennedy and Daniel Caldwell, “China Maritime Report No. 23: The Type 075 LHD: Development, Missions, and Capabilities,” US Naval War College, China Maritime Studies Institute, 07 October 2022.https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-maritime-reports/23/

China Conducts Joint South China Sea Combat Patrol Near Huangyan Island

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“If we do not strengthen our countermeasures against the Marcos government, the Philippines, relying on support of countries outside the region, will only become more arrogant in stirring up trouble.”

On 7 August, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command conducted a joint combat patrol in the South China Sea near Huangyan Island. The patrol coincided with a four-nation military exercise conducted by the United States, Canada, Australia, and the Philippines in the same region and aimed to “test the theater troops’ reconnaissance and early warning, rapid mobility, and joint strike capabilities.”[i]

The first excerpted article, published by the Global Times, a Chinese nationalistic tabloid, features Colonel Zhang Junshe, from the Naval Military Academic Research Institute, and Dr. Ding Duo, Deputy Director from China’s Institute of South China Sea Studies.[ii] In the article, Colonel Zhang emphasizes two points. Firstly, the joint combat patrol confidently showcases procedures to include quick threat detection, rapid deployment, control of both sea and air through joint strikes, seize the initiative, and launch further strike operations. Secondly, Colonel Zhang criticizes the coinciding four-nation military exercise as merely symbolic due to the limited number of participating ships.[iii] Colonel Zhang emphasizes that the Philippines involves non-regional countries in the South China Sea to embolden themselves to undertake more “provocative” actions. Dr. Ding Duo continues the rhetoric, accusing the United States of being the biggest external factor disrupting regional stability. He asserts that future multinational exercises will only serve to strengthen China’s determination and commitment to its interest in the region. The second excerpt, published by Direct News, a news agency controlled by the propaganda department of the Chinese Communist Party, features Shi Hong, a frequent special commentator. Shi Hong also places the blame for escalating tensions on the Philippines and the United States.[iv] He strongly advocates the PLA to intensify “countermeasures” against the Philippines as its military continues to participate in joint exercises. The Philippines has emerged as a primary contender against China in the South China Sea, with both sides engaging in multiple hostile confrontations.[v] While China has traditionally used its coast guard to assert its claims in the region, the recent PLA joint combat patrol signals a potentially more aggressive approach aimed at intimidating and demonstrating strength. The timing of this joint combat patrol is clearly intended to send a message of discontent. The trend of patrols may become more frequent, signaling China’s dissatisfaction with the Philippines’ growing collaboration with its allies and partners.[vi]

Sources:

“南部战区位黄岩岛附近海空域组织联合战巡，军事专家：消息中的“三种能力”内涵丰富 (The Southern Theater Command organized a joint combat patrol in the sea and air near Huangyan Island, military experts say the “three capabilities” in the report are rich in meaning),” Global Times (a Chinese tabloid known for reporting international issues from a nationalistic perspective), 7 August 2024. https://hqtime.huanqiu.com/article/4IvXI4qwGPn

The People’s Liberation Army Southern Theater Command announced on the 7th that they conducted a joint combat patrol near Huangyan Island in the South China Sea. This patrol aimed to test the theater troops’ reconnaissance and early warning, rapid mobility, and joint strike capabilities. Experts interviewed by the Global Times noted that these three capabilities demonstrate the PLA’s ability to implement targeted countermeasures against provocative actions.

Colonel Zhang Junshe, a researcher at the Naval Military Academic Research Institute, stated that the PLA’s three key capabilities—reconnaissance and early warning, rapid mobility, and joint strikes—are part of its combat procedures designed to defend national sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity. He explained that these procedures enable the PLA to quickly detect threats, maneuver rapidly, and conduct joint strikes against acts of aggression. This approach allows the PLA to maintain control of sea and air, seize the initiative, and launch further strike operations.

Coincidentally, the Philippines, the United States, Canada, and Australia began a two-day multilateral maritime exercise on the 7th, which was reported as the first joint exercise among these four countries. This marks the third exercise that the Philippines has conducted with non-regional countries within ten days; On July 31st, the Philippine and US navies held a joint maritime exercise in the South China Sea, and on August 2nd, the Philippines and Japan conducted a joint military exercise in the same region.

Dr. Ding Duo, Deputy Director of the Institute of Marine Law and Policy at the China Institute of South China Sea Studies, stated that the Philippines’ continual attempts to involve non-regional countries in joint exercises have only emboldened their confidence for provocative actions in the South China Sea. Dr. Ding Duo firmly believes that not only is the Philippines bringing danger upon itself, but it is also destabilizing ASEAN’s regional stability.

Dr. Ding Duo asserts that the United States is the biggest external factor disrupting regional stability. He criticizes the U.S. for promoting multilateral mechanisms and exhibiting a Cold War mentality against China. Dr. Ding Duo states, ‘The United States does not have many means to intervene in South China Sea affairs. It can only demonstrate deterrence through joint patrols and joint military exercises. However, history and reality have shown that this approach will not affect China; instead, it will only strengthen China’s determination to safeguard its sovereignty, security, and development interests in the South China Sea.”

Furthermore, public reports indicate that the exercises conducted by the Philippines with non-regional countries in the South China Sea are mostly symbolic. In the most recent exercises, very few ships and aircraft were involved. From the Philippines’ perspective, its ships and systems are far behind those of friendly and allied countries, making it unable to effectively carry out its own joint operations. The Philippines hopes that through these multinational exercises, the United States and its allies will support it and increase its confidence in continuing provocative actions. Colonel Zhang Junshe criticizes this approach, stating, ‘ …. the United States and Japan are capable of lending a helping hand to the Philippines, but neither of them is willing enough. They just want the Philippines to charge into battle, and they will not participate in it themselves.’

“解放军联合战巡南海 这一次在黄岩岛附近 (The PLA South China Sea joint patrol is near the Huangyan Island),” Direct News (news agency controlled by the propaganda department of the Chinese Communist Party), 7 August 2024. https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1806726604086346646&wfr=spider&for=pc

On August 7th, the Southern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army organized a joint combat patrol in the sea and airspace near Huangyan Island in the South China Sea to test the theater troops’ reconnaissance and early warning, rapid mobility, and joint strike capabilities. The Southern Theater Command stated that “all military activities that disrupt the South China Sea, create hotspots, and undermine regional peace and stability are under control.”

Shi Hong, a special commentator for Zhi News (Direct News), states that this joint combat patrol serves as a deterrent signal. He notes that the Philippines is frequently disrupting regional stability in the South China Sea and has actively involved non-regional countries to further destabilize the region. The four-nation exercise involving the Philippines, the United States, Canada, and Australia is the Philippines’ third naval exercise with non-regional countries in ten days.

“If we do not intensify our countermeasures against the Marcos government of the Philippines, the Philippines, relying on support from non-regional countries, will become more arrogant in destabilizing the region,” Shi Hong said. “Now the PLA Southern Theater Command is organizing its own joint patrols near Huangyan Island in the South China Sea, which serves as a strong warning to the Philippines and its allies. If they interfere in the South China Sea and challenge China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, the PLA is fully capable of defeating all provocations.”

Notes:

[i] To read the official statement on the joint combat patrol released by China’s Southern Theater Command, see their official Weibo post, Weibo, 7 August 2024. https://m.weibo.cn/u/7468777622?jumpfrom=weibocom

[ii] To watch the Global Times report on the joint combat patrol, see Global Times’ official Baidu post, Baidu, 8 August 2024. https://haokan.baidu.com/v?vid=10881733893047848551

[iii] The four-nation exercise involving the US, Australia, Canada, and the Philippines included only four ships, with Australia contributing a single Boeing Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft, Asian News Network (news coalition organization headquartered in Singapore), 8 August 2024. https://asianews.network/philippines-starts-4-nation-naval-drills-with-us-australia-canada/

[iv] To watch a clip of special commentator Shi Hong briefly outlining his points, see Direct News’ video post, Direct News, 08 August 2024. https://haokan.baidu.com/v?vid=2234121559770488262&collection_id=

[v] Nectar Gan and Kathleen Magramo “‘Only pirates do this’: Philippines accuses China of using bladed weapons in major South China Sea escalation,” CNN, 20 June 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/20/asia/philippines-footage-south-china-sea-clash-china-intl-hnk/index.html

[vi] Agence France-Presse, “China launches air, sea patrols near flashpoint reef as US holds joint drills,” VOA, 7 August 2024. https://www.voanews.com/a/china-launches-air-sea-patrols-near-flashpoint-scarborough-shoal/7733012.html

OE Watch Insight:

CHN conducted a joint combat patrol in the South China Sea to enhance reconnaissance, early warning, and joint strike capabilities. This heightens regional tensions and underscores CHN’s intent to assert its territorial claims, challenging freedom of navigation.

Image Information:

Image: This photo, taken on 12 May 2024, shows Chinese Coast Guard vessels training in the waters near Huangyan Island.
Source: httpswww.chinadaily.com.cna20240516WS66455301a31082fc043c7542_2.html
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

China Concludes Its Largest Military Drills Near Taiwan

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China’s Eastern Theater Command released posters for ‘Joint Sword-2024A’, showcasing weapons aimed to ‘kill’ Taiwan independence.

“The distance is getting closer and closer, only one step away from the main island of Taiwan, or even a finger away.”

Summary: China concluded its Joint Sword-2024A military drills, the largest and closest-ever drills held near Taiwan. China states these drills test its ability to seize power in Taiwan, reinforcing concerns that future exercises may serve as a pretext for an actual invasion.

On 23-24 May, China conducted its latest large-scale military exercise, Joint Sword-2024A, around Taiwan, including the surrounding Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin islands. These drills were the largest and closest-ever held to Taiwan and signal an increasingly aggressive Chinese stance.

According to the first excerpted article published by the Central Military Commission via its website www.81.cn, the purpose of Joint Sword-2024A was to punish separatist activities of Taiwan’s independence forces and to issue a serious warning against interference from external forces.[i] Joint Sword-2024A was conducted by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command to enhance its combat capabilities through multi-domain coordination. The exercise involved ships and aircraft conducting joint training near Taiwan’s periphery, including the Taiwan Strait and its northern, southern, and eastern regions.[ii] Activities encompassed rapid deployment of destroyer and frigate formations, integration of intelligence data for sea and air scenarios, target acquisition, and joint strikes. South of Taiwan networks of destroyer, frigate, and anti-submarine formations were established, deploying assets for comprehensive submarine detection. The Air Force deployed fighter jets for combat patrols around Taiwan, engaging in joint intelligence sharing and coordination with surface fleets for target strikes. Meanwhile, the Army and Rocket Force assumed predesignated launch positions, initiating preparation for joint strikes in coordination with naval and air assets.[iii] In the second excerpt, published by the People’s Republic of China newspaper Da Wan News, Major General Meng Xiangqi, a PLA professor from the National Defense University, outlines several significances of the Joint Sword-2024A exercise.[iv] Firstly, conducting battle group exercises from multiple directions very close to Taiwan’s periphery is intended to tightly confine Taiwan’s military defense space. Major General Meng stated the exercise demonstrates that the closer Taiwan independence forces move towards external support, the tighter the squeeze around Taiwan will become. He strongly indicates that PLA forces will inch closer to Taiwan’s periphery with each successive exercise.[v] Secondly, Major General Meng emphasized the significance of the exercise’s focus on the southern and eastern parts of Taiwan. In particular, he highlighted the strategic importance of eastern Taiwan, which has traditionally been considered a refuge and a place to preserve combat power by Taiwan’s military. He dismisses this notion, emphasizing that Joint Sword-2024A demonstrates the PLA’s ability to create a powerful firepower network through the close cooperation of its four major services—land, sea, air, and rocket forces—capable of delivering strikes anywhere, anytime on targets, including eastern Taiwan. Major General Meng also pointed out that if external forces were to intervene, they would likely approach from the east. However, the PLA’s ability to control and block access from the east means that Taiwan independence forces would be unable to escape or receive foreign aid. Thirdly, Major General Meng emphasized the significance of implementing a comprehensive blockade around the island. Such a blockade would halt Taiwan’s energy imports, disrupt domestic exports, and sever aid from the U.S. and its allies, effectively crippling the island.[vi] Ultimately, Joint Sword-2024A demonstrates that military drills are becoming routine to signal displeasure and punish Taiwan. Additionally, it underscores China’s increasing capability to convert these exercises around Taiwan into actual military operations at any time.[vii]

Sources:

Guo Yanfei, “东部战区位台岛周边开展“联合利剑-2024A”演习 (Eastern Theater Command conducts the ‘Joint Sword-2024A’ exercise around Taiwan island), www.81.cn (China’s Central Military Commission (CMC), the highest national defense organization in the PRC), 24 May 2024. http://www.81.cn/yw_208727/16310888.html

From May 23 to 24, the Eastern Theater Command of the PLA organized the army, navy, air force, rocket force, and other units to conduct the ‘Joint Sword-2024A’ exercise around Taiwan. The exercise focused on joint sea and air combat readiness patrols, the joint seizure of battlefield comprehensive control, joint precision attacks on key targets, and other objectives. Li Xi, spokesperson for the Eastern Theater Command, stated that this exercise was a powerful punishment for Taiwan separatist forces seeking independence and a serious warning to external forces.

Starting at 0734, the exercise and training began in the Taiwan Strait, as well as in the northern, southern, and eastern parts of Taiwan, including areas around Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin island. After the mobilization order was given, multiple formations of destroyers and frigates moved at high speed to surround Taiwan. Upon reaching their designated areas, the ships deployed their main and secondary guns, missiles, and other weapon systems, ready to strike. The fleet integrated intelligence information from both the air and sea, captured and locked onto targets, and executed multi-type, multi-dimensional saturation simulated strikes. Additionally, ships and aircraft coordinated anti-submarine operations by using towed sonar and buoys and carried out simulated attacks against underwater targets.

The Eastern Theater Air Force also dispatched dozens of fighters to systematically conduct combat patrols around Taiwan and its outer islands. These fighter jets, relying on joint intelligence support and various tactical maneuvers, approached the periphery of Taiwan for combat patrols. The air force formed multi-type formations with live ammunition and flew to designated airspace to establish strike positions. They coordinated with destroyers, frigates, and missile boats to simulate strikes against high-value targets. Simultaneously, the army and rocket force moved into their designated areas, quickly occupying their launch positions to coordinate with sea and air assault forces for joint strikes.

With the support of the Eastern Theater Command’s joint combat system, the theater command’s troops conducted training in sea assault, land strike, air defense, and anti-submarine operations around Taiwan. This exercise further tested their actual combat capabilities in multi-domain coordination and joint strike operations.

“联合利剑—2024A”演习距台岛很近有何深意？专家解析：这次解放军以压倒性实力反切香肠 (What is the significance of ‘Joint Sword-2024A’ being so close to Taiwan? Experts analyze: this time the PLA is countering incremental steps of Taiwan independence with overwhelming strength),” Xinan Evening News (PRC newspaper created by the Propaganda Department of the Anhui Provincial Committee of the CCP), 25 May 2024. https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1799986237998926830&wfr=spider&for=pc

On May 23, the Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army conducted the ‘Joint Sword-2024A’ exercise around Taiwan, involving sea-air coordination, sea assault, land strikes, and other training activities. The exercise aimed to test multi-domain coordination and organize joint strikes, demonstrating the combat capabilities of the Eastern Theater Command troops. With strong determination, firm will, and robust capabilities, they are poised to resolutely crush the arrogance of Taiwan independence forces. There are three significant aspects of this exercise to note: 1) The proximity of the exercise close to Taiwan. 2) The joint efforts to seize battlefield control and execute precision attacks. 3) The deployment of troops to the eastern part of Taiwan and its strategic implications.

Regarding the proximity of the exercise to Taiwan, Major General Meng Xiangqing, a professor and special commentator at the National Defense University, highlights two key points. First, he notes that the approaching ships and aircraft are increasingly nearing Taiwan, being just a step away from the main island, or even as close as a finger’s reach. Second, he emphasizes that the exercise clearly showcases the PLA’s multi-domain control capabilities, with the depth of this ‘squeeze’ being greater and more unprecedented than before. It can be inferred that the closer Taiwan independence forces move towards external support, the tighter the chain around Taiwan will become.

Regarding joint efforts to seize battlefield control and execute precision attacks, Major General Meng Xiangqing highlighted the 3D animations released by the Eastern Theater Command which demonstrated the focus on striking critical Taiwan independence targets. This involves leveraging strategic advantages by targeting coastal areas and dominating sea, air, and information domains from multiple directions. Additionally, the deployment of naval and air assets across vast areas creates a robust firepower network capable of striking any location harboring Taiwan independence.  Regarding the strategic implication of troop deployments to the eastern part of Taiwan, Major General Meng Xiangqing emphasizes it as a significant shift in perspective. Historically, the Taiwan military underestimated the PLA’s capability to effectively project combat power to the eastern part of the island, considering it a haven to preserve their own combat strength. However, recent demonstrations by the PLA, including simulated multi-directional strikes, have highlighted their ability to swiftly deploy troops to the region and assert control over key routes. Should external forces attempt intervention, they would likely approach from the east. However, the Eastern Theater Command’s capacity to deploy joint formations of naval, air, and land forces indicates that Taiwan independence elements would find it difficult to escape, foreign aid would be effectively blocked, and there would be no vulnerable points in their defense.

Notes:

[i] To watch the PRC’s Ministry of Defense (MOD) official response for conducting Joint Sword-2024A, see the MOD’s video post, Ministry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of China, 24 May 2024. http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/xwfyr/fyrthhdjzw/16310980.html

[ii] For a comprehensive breakdown of PLA activities during Joint Sword-2024A, including composition of PLA forces on each day, see Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense daily report of PLA activities, Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C.  https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=即時軍事動態&title=國防消息&Page=2

[iii] Considering information released by the PLA and public sources, Joint Sword-2024A is recognized by observers as China’s largest and closest military exercise ever conducted near Taiwan. See: Josephine Ma, “Mainland China’s military wraps up Joint Sword-2024A drills near Taiwan,” South China Morning Post, 25 May 2024. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3264093/mainland-chinas-military-wraps-joint-sword-2024a-drills-near-taiwan

[iv] To view a broadcast featuring Major General Meng Xiangqing from the National Defense University and Senior Colonel Tong Zhen from the Academy of Military Sciences discussing the ‘Joint Sword-2024A’ exercise, see the exclusive Xinhuanet video post, Xinhuanet (the official state news agency of the PRC known for propaganda and disinformation), 24 May 2024. https://live.baidu.com/m/media/pclive/pchome/live.html?room_id=9254336688&source=h5pre

[v] A visual released by CNA that compares the 2022 PLA military drills around Taiwan to ‘Joint Sword-2024A’, Central News Agency (Taiwan state-owned news agency), 25 May 2024. https://imgcdn.cna.com.tw/www/WebPhotos/1024/20240524/2000x2000_wmkn_02594021293743_0.jpg

[vi] To watch a clip of Senior Colonel Zhang Chi, Deputy Director at the National Defense University, briefly describing the effects of sieging Taiwan, see China Net Culture video post, China Net Culture (a state-run web portal of the State Council Information Office, part of the CCP Central Propaganda Department), 24 May 2024. https://haokan.baidu.com/v?pd=wisenatural&vid=6554376293806421436

[vii] Nectar Gan, Eric Cheung, Brad Lendon, “China says military drills encircling Taiwan designed to test its ability to ‘seize power,’ CNN, 24 May 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/23/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-second-day-intl-hnk/index.html

OE Watch Insight:

CHN concluded its ‘Joint Sword-2024A’ military drills, the largest and closest ever held near TWN. CHN states these drills test its ability to seize power, reinforcing concerns that future exercises may serve as a pretext for an actual invasion.

Image Information:

Image: China’s Eastern Theater Command released posters for ‘Joint Sword-2024A’, showcasing weapons aimed to ‘kill’ Taiwan independence.
Source: http://www.81.cn/zq_208553/16310798.html
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

China Unveils Its Most Advanced Aircraft Carrier

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China’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian, docks at the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai.

“The construction of the People’s Navy aircraft carriers has achieved a remarkable transformation from nothing to something.”

On 1 May 2024, China’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian, began its maiden sea trial[i] marking a pivotal stride in Chinese power projection. The Fujianis the largest and most advanced carrier in China’s fleet and will significantly enhance Beijing’s capacity to project power over greater distances and expand its ‘blue water’ capabilities.

According to the first excerpted article published by one of China’s largest internet companies NetEase, Fujian is China’s first domestically designed and built aircraft carrier featuring an electromagnetic catapult system. This key capability allows Fujian to launch heavier and larger aircraft than its predecessors, the Liaoning [RG1]  and the Shandong [RG2]. With increased payload capacity and extended range, Fujian enhances the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN)  ‘blue-water’ capabilities.[ii] Notably, Fujian surpasses its predecessors in tonnage and technological capabilities. Its construction also underscores China’s growing expertise in domestic carrier construction and development, marking a departure from reliance on Soviet designs. After completing sea trials and officially entering service, Fujian will significantly advance the PLAN capabilities, marking the beginning of the “three carrier era,” wherein one carrier can undergo maintenance, another can maintain training readiness, and the third can undertake carrier presence operations in strategically important maritime areas.

The second excerpt, published by the Chinese Communist Party newspaper China Daily, states that the sea trials of Fujian may be considerably longer than its two predecessors. This is due to Fujian’s technology upgrades, particularly the electromagnetic catapult, the evolution from a Soviet foundation, and its ability to accommodate additional equipment and aircraft. Further, an expert cited in the article details that Fujian’s sea trials will be divided into two primary components: equipment and personnel.[iii] He states that sea trials related to equipment are based on six characteristics, reliability, maintainability, testability, supportability, environmental adaptability, and safety. The sea trials related to personnel include habitability and people’s experience of the work environment. While the recent launch of Fujian marks significant progress for China, the United States still maintains a considerable lead in aircraft carrier application, experience, and technology.[iv] The US Navy’s operational experience with carriers, dating back to World War II, provides a depth of knowledge that China cannot match. Through decades of maritime experience, the US Navy has developed a mature and highly effective doctrine for carrier combat operations, integrating them into broader joint and combined arms strategies. In contrast, the PLAN lacks this historical, practical, and combat experience.[v] Despite this, through rigorous sea trials, Fujian will not only enhance China’s technological prowess but also gain invaluable operational experience, positioning itself for greater maritime prominence in the future.

Sources:

Fu Qianshao, “超燃！我国将进入“三航母时代”！(Super Hot! My Country Enters the “3 Aircraft Carrier Era), Netease (one of China’s largest internet companies, subject to regulatory oversight and censorship by China’s Cyberspace Administration), 02 May 2024. https://m.163.com/dy/article/J16ADKLT0514R9KQ.html

On June 17, 2022, China marked the launch and naming of its third aircraft carrier, christened ‘Fujian Ship of the People’s Liberation Army Navy.’ On May 1, 2024, the carrier embarked on its inaugural sea trial. With the addition of Fujian, China now boasts three aircraft carriers, each with unique performance and combat capabilities, joining the Liaoning and Shandong in its naval fleet.

The Liaoning, originally a Soviet carrier commissioned in 1985, serves as China’s inaugural aircraft carrier, boasting a 60,000-ton displacement. Despite its origins, extensive upgrades have rendered it a crucial asset for China’s maritime and aerial operations expansion. In contrast, the Shandong represents China’s first indigenous medium-sized aircraft carrier, featuring a design, development, and construction entirely undertaken within the country. Slightly larger than the Liaoning, the Shandong features an expanded flight deck and significant advancements in internal systems, elevators, and shipboard weaponry. The latest addition, Fujian, marks a significant technological leap for China’s naval capabilities. As the country’s first carrier equipped with an electromagnetic catapult system, Fujian boasts a load displacement exceeding 80,000 tons, surpassing its predecessors in both size and technological sophistication.

As with new surface vessels across naval fleets worldwide, Fujian will undergo rigorous sea trials before entering active service. These trials encompass two primary aspects: equipment and personnel evaluation. Equipment trials scrutinize the ship’s reliability, maintainability, testability, supportability, environmental resilience, and safety standards. Meanwhile, personnel trials assess aspects such as habitability and operational effectiveness.

With the successful completion of sea trials and Fujian’s official commissioning, it is poised to significantly advance the capabilities of the PLAN. This heralds the commencement of the ‘three carrier era,’ wherein one aircraft carrier can undergo maintenance, another can maintain training readiness, and the third can undertake crucial carrier presence operations in strategically important maritime areas.

With its adoption of cutting-edge electromagnetic catapult technology, Fujian will have a higher dispatch rate for carrier-based aircraft compared to its predecessors. Furthermore, its integration of domestically developed technologies underscores China’s commitment to indigenous innovation and self-reliance. Through rigorous sea trials, the PLAN will not only enhance its technological prowess but also gain invaluable operational experience, positioning itself for greater maritime prominence in the future.

Source: Gao Linlin, “你好，18舰！欢迎，福建舰！(Hello, Ship 18! Welcome, Fujian Ship!),” China Daily (a daily newspaper owned by the Publicity Department of the Chinese Communist Party), 02 May 2024. https://cn.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202405/02/WS6633074fa3109f7860ddc054.html

On 01 May 2024, China’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian, unmoored and set sail from the docks of Jiangnan Shipyard to conduct its inaugural sea trials. These sea trials aim to access the reliability and stability of Fujian’s power, electricity, and other essential systems. Fujian stands as a significant emblem of the navy’s evolution and the emergence of high-quality combat forces. The rapid expansion of China’s aircraft carrier force underscores a deliberate effort to enhance combat capabilities. Progressing from a single carrier to three, China has charted a distinct trajectory in the construction of its aircraft carrier force, reflecting a transformation tailored with Chinese characteristics.

Before new ships are commissioned, navies worldwide conduct sea trials to assess their performance across various metrics through actual navigation at sea. The sea trials of Fujian are divided into two primary components: equipment and personnel evaluation. Equipment trials scrutinize reliability, maintainability, testability, supportability, environmental adaptability, and safety. Concurrently, personnel trials focus on factors such as habitability and operational experience within the work environment.

Fujian marks a significant leap forward in technology and tonnage compared to its predecessors, garnering attention as the first Chinese aircraft carrier not based on a Soviet template. With its considerably larger tonnage, Fujian has increased capacity to accommodate additional equipment and aircraft. Furthermore, the incorporation of new technologies such as the electromagnetic catapult underscores its cutting-edge capabilities. Given these substantial upgrades and the absence of a Soviet foundation, the sea trials for Fujian may be longer compared to those of the two previous carriers.With the official commissioning of Fujian, the navy will transition into a ‘three carrier era,’ facilitating a rotation system where one carrier can undergo repairs, another can maintain training readiness, and the third can engage in combat training. This strategic deployment enables the PLAN to always ensure the presence of an aircraft carrier in strategically important sea areas. Furthermore, equipped with an electromagnetic catapult, Fujian is poised to play a pivotal role in executing key tasks within critical maritime domains.

Notes:

[i] To watch the full CCTV-7 video report of Fujian’s unmooring, see CCTV’s video post, CCTV, 02 May 2024.

https://tv.cctv.com/2024/05/02/VIDEtGTVEkVgMH4Cp34Hli4M240502.shtml?spm=C53074552346.P4BWJvVoMUky.S51904.6

[ii] Brandon Lendon, “China’s newest aircraft carrier heads to sea for first time,” CNN, 01 May 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/01/china/china-navy-newest-aircraft-carrier-fujian-sea-trial-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

[iii] CCTV-13 features a special military commentator, a former PLAN officer commissioned from Dalian Academy, to provide insights into Fujian’s sea trials, CCTV-13 News Channel, 09 May 2204. https://tv.cctv.com/2024/05/09/VIDEYJxMXBbSzJFnn5zSoBNr240509.shtml

[iv] Greg Torode, Eduardo Baptista, Tim Kelly, “China’s aircraft carriers play ‘theatrical’ role but pose little threat yet” Reuters. 05 May 2023. https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-aircraft-carriers-play-theatrical-role-pose-little-threat-yet-2023-05-05/

 [v] Benjamin Brimelow, “US vs. Chinese aircraft carriers: How the world’s top flattops stack up,” Business Insider,01 June 2024. https://www.businessinsider.com/us-vs-chinese-navy-aircraft-carriers-2024-5

Image Information:

Image: China’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian, docks at the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai.  
Source: https://english.news.cn/20240501/72b54c6bb8f34058a011c44971de3c0e/c.html
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

China Reveals Its Carrier-Based J-15D Electronic Warfare Fighter

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The J-15D, featured in a CCTV-7 Military News episode, displaying two electronic warfare pods on the wing tips and two larger electronic warfare pods on the inside of the wings.

“Chinese aircraft carrier formations have reached a new level of comprehensive combat capabilities, and has entered the era of offensive operations, breaking the monopoly advantage of the U.S. military. This is something we are very happy about.”

The introduction of the J-15D [R1] signals a pivotal moment for Chinese aircraft carrier formations, enabling them to execute strikes against adversaries with sophisticated air defense systems according to the first article published by government-censored Chinese internet and gaming provider NetEase. The Chinese J-15D electronic warfare aircraft made its first public appearance on CCTV in late March 2024.[i] Equipped with electronic countermeasures, reconnaissance capabilities, and the capacity to disrupt enemy radar and missile systems, the J-15D substantially enhances the combat power of Chinese aircraft carriers.[ii] The article highlights three key aspects of the J-15D. First, its strategic value in anti-ship warfare is underscored by its comprehensive suite of electronic warfare, anti-radiation warfare, and air combat capabilities. Second, the J-15D signifies China’s comparable strength to the U.S. in the field of electronic warfare. Third, its ability to provide situational awareness is crucial, particularly in scenarios involving the deployment of hypersonic missiles by Chinese aircraft carrier formations. The J-15D confers an asymmetric advantage with its capacity to target adversaries at long distances and provide targeting guidance for hypersonic missiles. Overall, the J-15D signifies a “a new level in terms of comprehensive combat capabilities” for the Chinese aircraft carrier fleet. The second excerpt, published on highly regulated Chinese internet platform Tencent, suggests that the introduction of the J-15D also marks a significant shift in the combat strategy of China’s aircraft carriers. The excerpt states that in the past, the People’s Liberation Army Navy followed the Soviet Navy’s model, relying on carrier-based fighter jets for air defense while utilizing escort ships for long-range anti-ship attacks. With advancements in the performance of the J-15D, Chinese aircraft carriers are now capable of conducting long-range anti-ship and ground operations coupled with defensive and offensive electronic warfare.[iii] The J-15D, with its offensive capabilities, can engage in long-range sea or ground attacks alongside other carrier-based fighters, leveraging electronic warfare systems to dominate the battle space.[iv] This poses an “unprecedented” threat to U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups.

OE Insight Summary:

CHN’s naval aviation strength has significantly increased with the introduction of the J-15D, a carrier-based EW fighter jet. This EW fighter enhances CHN’s ability to assert electronic dominance from its aircraft carriers, providing strategic versatility in maritime operations.

Sources:

Fu Qianshao, “ ‘央视曝光’电战鲨’，歼-15D推动航母编队进入攻势作战时代 (CCTV Reveals ‘Electric War Shark’, the J-15D Propels Aircraft Carrier Formations into an Era of Offensive Operations),” Netease (one of China’s largest internet companies, subject to regulatory oversight and censorship by the national internet regulator, China’s Cyberspace Administration), 02 April 2024. https://www.163.com/dy/article/IUPAKE5T0535T18G.html

CCTV’s ‘Military Report’ recently aired footage showcasing the J-15D fighter jet as it commenced a naval training program, signaling a significant advancement for China’s aircraft carrier capabilities. Notably, the J-15D fills a crucial gap that its predecessor, the J-16D, couldn’t address, as it lacked compatibility for deployment on aircraft carriers.

The introduction of the J-15D into Chinese naval aviation signifies a pivotal advancement, enabling Chinese aircraft carrier formations to conduct air strikes against adversaries equipped with sophisticated air defense systems. Reflecting on the Gulf War, the US Air Force frequently coordinated air strikes against ground targets with electronic warfare aircraft to neutralize ground defense systems. This underscores the critical role of electronic warfare aircraft in suppressing air defenses, a capability that the J-15D helps address.

Compared with the US EA-18G, is the J15-D superior or inferior? 1. The J-15D offers enhanced strategic value particularly in anti-ship warfare. The J-15 is equipped with electronic warfare capabilities, anti-ship warfare and anti-radiation warfare, and has a relatively complete air combat capability. Compared to the J15-D, the EA-18G has excellent electronic warfare capabilities, limited anti-radiation and air combat capabilities, and almost no anti-ship combat capabilities. 2. The J-15D holds the advantage of possessing more modern electronic warfare technology, benefitting from China’s robust capabilities in the electronic industry. In the competition between China and the US in electronic warfare, China stands equal to the United States in terms of industry strength. 3. The tactical awareness offered by the J15-D holds significant value in scenarios where Chinese aircraft carriers possess hypersonic missiles. The J15-D’s ability to lock onto opponents’ carrier formations at longer distances and provide target indications for hypersonic missiles presents an asymmetric advantage. While the U.S. EA-18G possesses similar capabilities, its missile speed and range are insufficient to pose a threat to Chinese carrier formations.

Overall, the J-15D entry into service signifies that Chinese aircraft carrier formations reached a new level in terms of comprehensive combat capabilities, and entered the era of offensive operations, breaking the monopoly advantage of the US military. This is something we are very happy about. 

Kongtian Daliang, “央视官宣，歼15D ’咆哮鲨’ 喷涂海军灰，中国航母任务出现转变 (CCTV Reveals, J-15D “Roaring Shark” Sprayed Navy Grey, Marks Changes for Chinese Aircraft Missions),” Tencent (China’s largest multinational technology conglomerate, operating within a tightly regulated environment), 26 March 2024. https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240326A0442K00

Recent footage from the CCTV Military Channel showcased the J-15D carrier-based electronic warfare aircraft. The aircraft, painted in navy gray, suggests that it is either nearing or has already entered service. The presence of the J-15D fighter indicates a shift in focus for Chinese aircraft carriers from air defense to offense.

The CCTV footage reveals that the J-15D electronic warfare aircraft is equipped with two electronic warfare pods mounted under its wings, like the PLAAF J-16D [R1] electronic warfare aircraft. The primary function of this electronic warfare equipment is to analyze enemy radar frequencies, identify, jam, position, and target enemy radars. A notable distinction between the J-15D and other J-15 fighters is the absence of the airspeed tube, indicating comprehensive upgrades to the aircraft’s electronic equipment such as radar and sensors, facilitating comprehensive control of electromagnetic signals in combat airspace.

The introduction of the J-15D signifies a significant transformation in China’s aircraft carrier combat missions. Previously, Chinese aircraft carriers faced a distinct disadvantage compared to American super aircraft carriers. Consequently, the Soviet Navy model was adopted, utilizing carrier jets for air defense cover while escort ships launch long-range anti-ship missiles to conduct attacks. With the increasing maturity of the J-15, it is now equipped with air-launched anti-ship missiles, bolstering Chinese aircraft carriers’ offensive air capabilities.

The primary objective of the J-15D is to employ high-power electronic warfare equipment to suppress and disrupt the opponent’s electronic systems, while employing various methods to degrade the opponent’s radar detection capabilities. Alongside other carrier-based fighters, the J-15D can execute long-range sea and ground attacks, utilizing its electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize the opponent’s air defense systems. For US aircraft carrier strike groups, the threat posed by the J-15D is unprecedented. As for Japan’s ‘Izumo’ class light aircraft carriers, they are equipped with the F-35B stealth fighters, which have a generational advantage over the J-15 series. However, the number of F-35B aircraft is limited and may have limited warning aircraft to provide airspace intelligence and early warning. This greatly reduces the situational awareness capability of the F-35B. In addition, the J-15D retains most of the J-15’s air combat capabilities, and electronic warfare aircraft can be regarded as the nemesis of stealth fighter jets. Therefore, Chinese aircraft carriers employing J-15D aircraft are enough to cause Japanese light aircraft carriers to suffer significant losses.

Notes:

[i] To watch the full CCTV-7 video of the J15-D, see CCTV’s C-Bit Series Baidu post, Baidu, 24 March 2024. https://haokan.baidu.com/v?pd=wisenatural&vid=17129917562037813254

[ii] Mu Feng Lun Dao, “电战版歼-15D来袭，央视正式官宣，中国航母舰载机最后拼图全凑齐 (Electronic Warfare Version of J15-D is Coming, CCTV Formally Announces, Completing the Final Piece for China’s Carrier-Borne Aircraft),” Netease, 26 March 2024. https://www.163.com/dy/article/IU70SP910552YXLH.html

[iii] A Taiwanese news channel invites a Chinese military expert to discuss the strengths and advantages of the J-15D fighter plane, CTI News Channel, 02 April. 2024. https://youtu.be/srdhxxwV-CQ?t=304

[iv] A Taiwanese news channel invites a Chinese military expert to discuss the combat application of the J15-D, CTI News Channel, 30 March 2024. https://youtu.be/s6o1H0ffZXU?t=101

Image Information:

Image: The J-15D, featured in a CCTV-7 Military News episode, displaying two electronic warfare pods on the wing tips and two larger electronic warfare pods on the inside of the wings.
Source: https://haokan.baidu.com/v?pd=wisenatural&vid=17129917562037813254
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

China Accuses United States of Being Largest Proliferator of Space Militarization

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Long March 5 Y7 Carrier Rocket Launch Preparation on 23 February 2024.

“The United States uses the so-called threats from other countries as an excuse to expand its military power. China is firmly opposed to this.”

China is downplaying U.S. concerns over Beijing’s intentions in the space domain, and instead, claiming that the U.S. is the state most responsible for the militarization of space. The first excerpted article from Chinese state-owned media outlet The Paper, reported that General Stephen Whiting, Commander of the United States Space Force, expressed strong concerns about China’s rapid development of space military capabilities, describing China as a “major threat” in the space domain and the pace of development as “alarming.”[i] The second excerpt from China’s Ministry of Defense offers China’s official response. Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, criticized the U.S. for using “so-called threats” from other countries as excuses to expand its own military power in space. Zhang also accused the U.S. as the biggest promoter of space militarization, while firmly asserting that China insists on the peaceful use of space, opposes a space arms race, and urges the U.S. to cease spreading false statements and to refrain from expanding its arms and war preparations in space. Chinese rhetoric of peaceful space development follows the release of the 2023 “Blue Book” by China’s Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation. The document declares China’s plans to conduct a record-breaking 100 launch missions in 2024, including 70 space mission launches, involving 290 spacecraft, and a series of major carrier rocket tests.[ii] China sent an experimental communication satellite into space on 23 February 2024. The launch marks the eleventh satellite launched by China under a classified military program, with no additional details publicly disclosed by state media, except that the satellite will primarily be used for “multi-band and high-speed communication technology experiments.”[iii] In the past six months, China has launched more than 15 Yaogan reconnaissance satellites, primarily to support the People’s Liberation Army’s Strategic Support Force.[iv] The Yaogan-41, launched on 20 December 2023, involved a military geostationary earth observation/signals intelligence satellite that provides unprecedented capabilities for tracking and identifying U.S. and allied movements in the Indo-Pacific region.[v]

Sources:

Yan Shanshan, “美高官：在这一领域，中国正以惊人速度发展 (US senior official: In this field, China is developing at astonishing speed),” The Paper (official Chinese site), 03 March 2024. https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_26540782

Stephen Whiting, commander of the US Space Command, testifies to the US SASC that China has “dramatically improved its ability to monitor, track and target US and allied forces on Earth and in orbit.” The top commander declared space as a “expanding security challenge”, with China and Russia identified as the main competitors. Space is now deemed the “core of security activities in all fields,” and China is committed to making progress in satellite meteorology, manned spaceflights, robotic space explorations, and the ability to track and target US and allied forces. Furthermore, General Whiting said that China “will reach world-class levels in all fields except a few areas of space technology by 2030.”

Ye Mengyuan, “美国是太空军事化战场化的最大推手” (The United States is the biggest promoter of militarization of space),” China Ministry of National Defense (Ministry of National Defense Website), 29 February 2024. http://www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/qwfb/16289660.htmlSenior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, deputy director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense and spokesperson of the Ministry of National Defense, responded to a reporter’s question regarding China’s comments on the United States strategic competition in space, long range missiles, and anti-satellite weapons. Senior Colonel Zhang rebuffed the United States as having defined space as “combat territory” and developing and deploying offensive space weapons, organizing military offensive and defensive exercises and technological experiments, and maliciously tracking and dangerously approaching other countries’ spacecraft which creates risk of collision. He states that the United States is the biggest promoter of the militarization of space and the biggest threat to space security. Furthermore, he claims that China always insisted on the peaceful use of space, opposes a space arms race, and is actively promoting the building of community for mankind. He urges the United States to stop spreading false statements, stop expanding its arms and war preparation in space, and prevent damaging global strategic security and stability.

Notes:

[i] In his testimony, General Whiting identified both China and Russia as significant space competitors. He urgently raises the need for the U.S. to expand its military power, as well as to sustain and improve its capabilities and strength in the space field to maintain its competitive advantage. Wu Zhichao, “国防部：美国是太空军事化战场化的最大推手 (Ministry of Defense: America is Space Militarization’s Biggest Driver),” The Paper, 29 February 2024. https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_26506145

[ii] Feng Hu, “2024年预计实施100次发射！中国航天科技活动蓝皮书发布 (An Estimated 100 Launches Will Be Carried Out in 2024! China’s Aerospace Science and Technology Activities Released Blue Book),” China Economic Daily, 26 February 2024. http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/202402/26/t20240226_38912226.shtml

[iii] Ryan Woo, “China Launches Classified Communication Satellite with Powerful Rocket,” Reuters, 23 February 2024. https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-classified-communication-satellite-with-powerful-rocket-2024-02-23/

[iv] To obtain a list of Chinese satellites and their purpose description, see NASA Space Science Data Coordinated Archive, NASA, 28 March 2024. https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/query

[v] Clayton Swope, “No Place to Hide: A Look into China’s Geosynchronous Surveillance Capabilities,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 19 January 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/no-place-hide-look-chinas-geosynchronous-surveillance-capabilities

Image Information:

Image: Long March 5 Y7 Carrier Rocket Launch Preparation on 23 February 2024.
Source:  
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.

New Details Emerge About China’s H-20 Stealth Bomber

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The cover of the June 2021 issue of the Chinese military magazine “Modern Weaponry” features an artist’s rendition of a next-generation bomber.

“Since 2016, details regarding the H-20 have been largely withheld from the public. However, a few small details have gradually emerged.”

Although China announced the development of its first dedicated strategic stealth bomber, the H-20, in 2016, many details surrounding the aircraft remain a mystery. However, according to the first excerpted article posted on the publicly owned Chinese Internet Platform Tencent, Deputy Commander of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, Lieutenant General Wang Wei, stated that the H-20 is “almost here.” This statement was provided at the conclusion of the second session of the 14th National People’s Congress in Beijing. Despite external skepticism of the H-20’s development and progress, Wei stated that the H-20 currently has not encountered any technological bottlenecks.[i] Wei also noted that after test flights, the H-20 can very quickly enter mass production. When asked how the new H-20 would compare to the United States capabilities (presumably, the B-21 bomber), Wei replied that it is not a matter of comparison between China and the United States. Rather it is a matter to “protect our own security.” [ii] The second excerpt published by the majority Chinese state-owned television network, Ifeng, suggests that the unveiling of the new H-20 will send two significant messages to the outside world. First, the H-20 will elevate China into the top ranks of the world’s air powers. Second, the H-20 will serve as an effective deterrent against external forces infringing upon China’s national sovereignty and airspace. The source also suggests that the H-20 will enable China to break through the first, and potentially the second, island chain that surrounds the country, thus expanding its strategic space.[iii] Furthermore, the source suggests that the H-20 will “shock” the forces of Taiwan and constrain their strategic intentions, with the author referring to Taiwan simply as ‘the island.’[iv]

Sources:

Yanbingchang, “时隔8年再获官方确认，空军副司令员“剧透”轰-20：快了，你们等着吧 (After an Official Confirmation Following an Eight Year Hiatus, the Air Force Deputy Commander ‘Spoiled’ the H-20: It’s Almost Here, Just Wait for It),” Tencent (a major Chinese platform company that connects users, businesses, and industries with technology and innovation), 11 March 2024. https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240311A04C1F00

After the conclusion of the second session of the 14th National People’s Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, a reporter from the Hong Kong Commercial Daily asked Lieutenant General Wang Wei, Deputy Commander of the Chinese Air Force, a series of questions regarding China’s new and upcoming strategic stealth bomber, the H-20. Lieutenant General Wang Wei stated that the H-20 will soon be announced to the public and emphasized that production of the plane would proceed ‘very fast’ following test flights.

The development of the H-20 was publicly revealed in 2016, and details of the aircraft have not been made public since then. There were suspicions that China may have encountered technical bottlenecks during its development. However, Lieutenant General Wang Wei categorically denied this in the interview, stating that there were no such bottlenecks.

Military experts estimate that the H-20 boasts a range of approximately 13,000 kilometers, a combat radius of around 5,000 kilometers, and a bomb load ranging from 30 to 40 tons. Such capabilities would render the H-20 five times more effective than China’s current most advanced bomber, the H-6K, and enable it to fly directly to the United States.

Since 2016, details regarding the H-20 have been largely withheld from the public. However, a few small details have gradually emerged. In a 2018 episode by the CCTV Documentary Channel, it was stated that significant progress had been made in the development of the H-20. Additionally, in 2021, a promotional video commemorating the tenth anniversary of the J-20 [R1] ‘s maiden flight, released by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, showcased an aircraft featuring a flying wing design. Similarly, an Air Force recruitment video from the same year revealed a winged aircraft being unveiled, as seen through the reflection of a pilot’s visor. Lastly, at the conclusion of a CCTV program on military technology, viewers were shown an image of an object draped with a curtain, its outline strongly resembling a flying wing layout without vertical tail fins, reminiscent of the design of the B-2 [R2] or B-21 bomber.

Nanyouhui, “轰20将亮相，向外传递两大信号 (The Unveiling of the H-20 will Send Two Messages to the Outside World),” ifeng.com (a majority state-owned television network), 12 March 2024. https://news.ifeng.com/c/8XtHAuKtOs5

The statements from Deputy Commander Wang Wei regarding the H-20 development send two signals to the outside world. Firstly, they suggest that China is on track to possess a stealth strategic bomber comparable to those of the US Air Force. American experts speculate that the H-20 developed by China may be akin to the B-2 stealth bomber, boasting a range of more than 8,500 kilometers and capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons. The emergence of the H-20 is poised to rival the American B-2 and position China among the world’s leading air force powers.

Secondly, the H-20 is expected to significantly enhance the deterrence capability of the Chinese Air Force. In light of efforts by the United States to contain China’s rise, including the construction of first and second island chains aimed at restricting China’s access to the Pacific, the H-20 represents a strategic asset. With its potential capability to penetrate these containment barriers, the H-20 will serve as a potent deterrent against foreign forces.The development of the H-20 is not intended to compete against the United States or pursue world hegemony. Rather, it represents a strategic breakthrough for China, expanding its strategic capabilities. Importantly, once the H-20 is operational, it will significantly impact forces positioned on ‘the island’—a reference to territories dependent on American military presence for defense against mainland China. China has consistently demonstrated restraint and tolerance, and the deployment of the H-20 will serve as a deterrent, influencing the intentions of these forces.

Notes:

[i] Daqiqi, “台媒, 轰-20迟迟没有露面, 是因为研发出了问题, 要走的路还很长! (According to Taiwan Media, H-20 Bomber Has Not Appeared for a Long Time Because It Encountered Development Problems, There Still is a Long Way To Go!),” NetEase (a leading Chinese internet and gaming provider centered around premium content), 08 December 2023.  https://www.163.com/dy/article/ILEICUTM05534DZW.html

[ii] To watch the full interview with Lieutenant General Wang Wei, see Hong Kong Commercial Daily’s Weibo video post on 11 March 2024, Weibo (biggest social media platform in China), 11 March 2023. https://weibo.com/hkcdCN?layerid=5010657889487439

[iii] Mark Carlin, “China’s New H-20 Stealth Bomber Is a Giant Question Mark”, National Interest, 15 November 2023.https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-new-h-20-stealth-bomber-giant-question-mark-207290

[iv]Peter Suciu, “China’s B-21 Raider: The Xi’an H-20 Stealth Bomber is Coming Soon”, National Interest, 12 March 2024. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-b-21-raider-xian-h-20-stealth-bomber-coming-soon-209973

Image Information:

Image: The cover of the June 2021 issue of the Chinese military magazine “Modern Weaponry” features an artist’s rendition of a next-generation bomber.
Source: https://www.zazhipu.com/magnews228725.html
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl.