Author Archives: Cindy Hurst

China Probably Expanding Its Nuclear Testing Capability 

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“Extensive coverings have been erected on a mountainside in this arid region, and broken rocks piled up nearby are believed to be evidence of excavation of a new “sixth tunnel” for [nuclear] testing hidden beneath.” 

Satellite images suggest that China is expanding its nuclear test facilities in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.  Popular Tokyo-based news website Nikkei Asia said the images appear to show newly installed power transmission cables and a facility that could be used to store high-explosives and extensive coverings.  Also, broken rocks appear to be piled up along a nearby mountainside, evidence that China could have been excavating a new “sixth tunnel” for testing.  Other evidence, according to the article, includes a notice in which the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC), a paramilitary organization under the China Communist Party, invited bids for “10 radiation dose alarms,” “12 protective suits,” and “one detector of wound, site taints.”  These items could be part of “a project for emergency monitoring of nuclear and radiation accidents.”  Also raising the author’s suspicion is that, while there are no nuclear power plants in Xinjiang, the XPCC had stated it will “make 2022 the starting year for strengthening the capacity to monitor radioactivity” (see “XPCC: The Militarization of Agriculture and Construction,” OE Watch, October 2015).  According to the article, President Xi Jinping could be contemplating reunification with Taiwan by force if needed.  However, as “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has provided a sobering warning about the risks of military adventures,” an added nuclear capability, perhaps small nuclear weapons, could be the force needed to deter Taiwan from seeking independence and the United States from interfering.

Source:

“Satellite Photos Show China’s New Nuclear Test Site in Xinjiang,” Nikkei Asia (Tokyo-based news website that focuses on the Asian continent), 1 August 2022. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-age-of-Great-China/Satellite-photos-show-China-s-new-nuclear-test-site-in-Xinjiang. 

…Nikkei has viewed Satellite photographs with a number of experts that appear to confirm China is strengthening its nuclear testing capability. 

Extensive coverings have been erected on a mountainside in this arid region, and broken rocks piled up nearby are believed to be evidence of excavation of new “sixth tunnel” for testing hidden beneath. 

Power transmission cables and a facility that could be used for storing high explosives have recently been installed, while unpaved white roads lead from a command post in various directions. 

China has 2.04 million military personnel.  Although that is already the largest standing force in the world – and 1.5 times larger than that of the U.S. – it has been unable to recruit enough troops of late, according to one retired military officer.  This is a combination of the old “one-China policy” and a preference among the younger generation for less physically demanding work in the private sector.  

The Xi administration may be contemplating the reunification of China, and that would involve taking Taiwan by force.  But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has provided a sobering warning about the risks of military adventures, not least for the serious shortcomings in the quality of Russian military equipment.  Russia supplies China with over 66% of its imported military hardware. 

There is also telling evidence to be found in tenders invited from the region.  In April, an official Chinese procurement website invited bids for “10 radiation dose alarms,” “12 protective suits,” and “one detector of wound site taints.”  This was ostensibly part of “a project for emergency monitoring of nuclear and radiation accidents.”  The invitations were issued by the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC), a paramilitary organization under the CCP.  

Although there are no nuclear power plants in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, the XPCC said that it will “make 2022 the starting year for strengthening the capacity to monitor radioactivity.”  Procurement of related equipment has increased in the region. 

Russia has threatened the use of small nuclear weapons on airports and underpopulated areas in Ukraine.  The U.S. has so far had no direct involvement in the war there, and some analysts have argued that the possible use of nuclear firepower has made it even more wary of any entanglement. 

China Using Japanese Higher Education To Build Military Capability  

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“There are concerns that China has utilized Japan’s knowledge in the development of the latest technology, which is also known as a ‘game changer’ that could revolutionize the face of war.” 

The following article, originally published by influential Japanese weekly Tokya Shukan Shincho, argues that China is using Japanese cutting-edge technology to build its military capability.  The author, Hirai Koji, a member of the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies Policy Advisory Board, explains that 43 higher-level universities in Japan have accepted students from seven leading Chinese universities, known as the “Seven Sons of National Defense.”  These “Seven Sons” fall under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in China and are responsible for the research and development of weapons and equipment used by the People’s Liberation Army.  According to the article, completing their advanced education in Japan, “more than a few” of these students returned to China to develop key weapons.  For example, after attending one of Japan’s higher-level universities and returning to China, many researchers participated in hypersonic-related research at universities and research institutes.  The article goes on to note nine experts in related fields, such as jet engines, fluid dynamics, and heat resistant materials, who also had studied in Japan and returned to develop this new weapon.  The author argues that while Japan’s academia has not been cooperating in any way with Japan’s national security, “it has been eagerly cooperating with China’s military buildup.” 

Source:

Hirai Koji, “中国「大軍拡」は日本の技術の賜物 (China’s Military Expansion Due to Gift of Japanese Technology),” Tokyo Shukan Shincho (considered one of Japan’s most influential weekly magazines),21 July 2022. Posted on Yahoo Japan News at https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/a37c3552fced0105932811c60d9e39dea70aa3fd?page=1 

In China, there are universities called the “Seven Sons of National Defense,” which are responsible for the development of weapons and equipment used by the People’s Liberation Army [PLA] which are: 1) Beihang University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2) Harbin University of Technology, 3) Beijing University of Technology, 4) Harbin Engineering University, 5) Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 6) Nanjing University of Science and Technology, and 7) Northwestern Polytechnical University.  They fall directly under the jurisdiction of the State Administration for Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense. 

According to the “Survey on Inter-University Exchange Agreements With Overseas Universities and Overseas Centers of Excellence” revised in October 2021 by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, 43 public and private universities in Japan have established partnerships with the Seven Sons of National Defense.  Starting with the University of Tokyo, Kyoto University, Tokyo Institute of Technology, and others that represent Japanese higher education institutions, they have accepted students from the Seven Sons of National Defense affiliated with the PLA to engage in research on military and civilian technology. 

Of course, more than a few of the foreign students who came to Japan have gone on to work on weapons development and performance improvement research after returning home. 

On 20 February of this year [2022], Yomiuri Shimbun’s morning edition reported under the title “‘Economic Security: Invisible Threat’ (4) Japanese Technology for ‘Hypersonic Missile’” that Japanese technology may have been used in the development of a new weapon, a hypersonic missile developed by China. 

The following is a long quotation from the article.  “Hypersonic missiles fly at speeds of Mach 5 or faster and are considered difficult to intercept with the current missile defense system. There are concerns that China has utilized Japan’s knowledge in the development of the latest technology, which is also known as a ‘game changer’ that could revolutionize the face of war. 

The Public Security Intelligence Agency secretly submitted a report to the relevant cabinet ministers warning them of this situation.  This was in May 2021. 

The report pointed out that ‘after returning to China, many researchers engaged in hypersonic-related research at universities and research institutes and pointed to nine experts in the fields, such as jet engines, fluid dynamics, and heat resistant materials. 

According to an agency member, one of them became an assistant professor at Tohoku University in 1994 after working as a researcher at a research institute under the umbrella of a Chinese military corporation.  He received a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (GASR) and had access to a facility affiliated with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) in Miyagi Prefecture.  Around 2000, he returned to China and joined a research institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, where he was involved in the establishment of a hypersonic experimental facility in 2017, similar to that of JAXA.” 

If this is true, it means that Japan’s own advanced technology was transferred to China through a national university and used to develop a new weapon that is said to be virtually impossible to intercept.  

China Advancing Cooperation With Pakistan’s Navy in the Indian Ocean

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“To counter India, it is important for Pakistan to improve its navy by acquiring advanced equipment from Beijing and enhancing its capabilities through these drills…”

The accompanying three excerpted articles highlight different perceptions of the growing China-Pakistan strategic partnership in the Indian Ocean.  In July, China and Pakistan held their second “Sea Guardians” joint naval exercise off the coast of Shanghai.  The exercise was meant in part to test Pakistan’s new Type 054A/P warship—the country’s most advanced Chinese-built frigate.  The Pakistani navy commissioned its first Type 054A/P, the PNS Tughril, in January and the second one, PNS Taimur, in June.  Pakistan has a contract to receive two more at an unspecified date.  According to popular Indian daily The Hindu, the “Sea Guardians” exercises are paving the way for closer security cooperation between China and Pakistan in the Indian Ocean.  Chinese and Pakistani experts point out the need to safeguard strategic sea lanes used to transport energy and goods.  They also comment on Pakistan’s need “to ensure seaward defense, maintain peace, stability and balance of power in the Indian Ocean region.”  The Hong Kong-based semi-independent South China Morning Post attributes China’s growing role in the Indian Ocean to growing U.S.-India joint maritime security cooperation.  China’s goal is to “counter U.S. efforts to advance its Indo-Pacific strategy, which emphasizes India’s continued rise and leadership in the region.”  Meanwhile, Paris-based, online media source Naval News sees the buildup of Pakistan’s naval capability more generally as an effort to counter India.  According to the article, the Pakistani navy is in the process of renewing its fleet.  In addition to the four Chinese frigates, they will be commissioning new corvettes from Turkey and a multi-purpose offshore patrol vessel from the Netherlands.  Pakistan is also modernizing its submarine fleet.  In 2016, Pakistan entered a $5 billion deal with China to acquire eight Chinese Yuan-class Type 041 diesel submarines by 2028.  According to the article, the goal is “to shift the force balance with its archrival India.”

Source:

Ananth Krishnan, “China, Pakistan Begin War Games Off Shanghai,” The Hindu (Indian daily newspaper), 10 July 2022. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/china-pakistan-begin-war-games-off-shanghai/article65624154.ece

China and Pakistan on Sunday began four-day naval exercises off the coast of Shanghai, involving Pakistan’s most advanced China-built frigate and paving the way for closer security cooperation between the two countries in the Indian Ocean.

Wei Dongxu, a Chinese military expert, told the paper the two countries “need to jointly demonstrate their capabilities in safeguarding strategic sea lanes that transport energy and goods.”

The first Type 054A, Tughril, was commissioned last year.  Pakistan’s envoy to China Moil Ul Haque then told Chinese media that the commissioning of the frigate “in the context of the overall security paradigm of the region” would “strengthen Pakistan Navy’s capabilities to respond to maritime challenges to ensure seaward defence, maintain peace, stability and balance of power in the Indian Ocean region.”

Source: Amber Wang, “China and Pakistan Launch Naval Drills Aimed at Countering US Indo-Pacific Strategy,” South China Morning Post (Hong Kong based semi-independent English language daily), 11 July 2022. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3184897/china-and-pakistan-launch-naval-drills-aimed-countering-us-indo

This is the second time China and Pakistan have held a “Sea Guardians” joint maritime exercise. The first was held in January 2020 in the northern Arabian Sea.

Lin Minwang, a professor of South Asian studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said the exercise would help China to expand its engagement in the Indian Ocean and counter US efforts to advance its Indo-Pacific strategy, which emphasizes India’s “continued rise” and leadership in the region.

“The strengthening of maritime security between India and the United States has led to China’s greater engagement in the Indian Ocean.”

The Indian Ocean is a vital trading hub, and 80 per cent of China’s oil imports come through the Malacca Strait, the ocean’s busiest “choke point”.

To counter India, it is important for Pakistan to improve its navy by acquiring advanced equipment from Beijing and enhancing its capabilities through these drills, according to Lin.

Source: Tayfun Ozberk,“Pakistan Navy Commissions 2nd Type 054 A/P Frigate ‘PNS Taimur,’” Naval News (Paris based naval focused news outlet), 24 June 2022. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/pakistan-navy-commissions-2nd-type-054-a-p-frigate-pns-taimur/

The Pakistan Navy is currently undertaking an important renewal of its fleet, with the procurement of several modern platforms: In addition to these frigates from China, Pakistan will also commission new corvettes from Turkey and OPV from the Netherlands.  It is also modernizing its submarine force.  In 2016, Pakistan agreed to pay China $5 billion for the acquisition of eight Chinese Yuan-class type-041 diesel submarines by 2028 in order to shift the force balance with its archrival India.

China’s Newest Aircraft Carrier Extends Capabilities With “Leapfrogged” Technology

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A J-15 carrier-based fighter aircraft is taking off from Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning (Type 001).

A J-15 carrier-based fighter aircraft is taking off from Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning (Type 001).

“…a modern navy equipped with aircraft carriers gives China a power projection capability, which was previously unavailable to them.”

In June, China officially floated its third aircraft carrier, the Fujian (Type 003) carrier, which can launch a wider variety of aircraft due to its increased size and the implementation of an electromagnetic catapult launch system (EMALS).  The two excerpted articles, published by Chinese internet technology company NetEase and Indian television broadcast network Noida News 18, provide an overview on the newly unveiled carrier and possible implications of using the groundbreaking EMALS.  The articles also highlight the emphasis the Chinese place on advancing technological developments as quickly as possible.

China’s first two aircraft carriers, the Liaoning (Type 001) and Shandong (Type 002), feature a ski jump deck, which assist jets taking off from the short runway.  The launched aircraft are restricted by size, weight, and payload.  The Liaoning is capable of operating 40 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters, while the Shandong can accommodate up to 50 J-15 fighters, an early-warning radar, and anti-submarine aircraft and various helicopters.  The Fujian is now China’s largest aircraft carrier at 80,000 tons and 318 meters.  Its size, coupled with greater capacity and the more condensed EMALS, allows it to carry more types of carrier-based aircraft than its two predecessors do.  These include the upgraded J-15, the new stealth J-35, and the recently unveiled (2020) Air Police 600—an early warning aircraft that can reportedly detect stealth aircraft from a long distance. 

Regarding the launching system, it is noteworthy that the next-step technology would have been a steam-piston driven system, which increases the launch and payload capacity from that of the ski jump.  As the NetEase authors point out, instead, China “leapfrogged” to EMALS, a technology developed by the United States.  The Chinese government, however, claims to have developed and constructed EMALS using all domestic innovation and technology.  Regardless, according to Noida News 18, China is already working on its next aircraft carrier (Type 004), which could be nuclear-powered, greatly extending the country’s long-range operational capabilities. In addition to similar observations regarding the Fujian’s technological advances, Indian observers from Noida News 18 commented that China’s aircraft carriers are not designed to be used in a conflict within the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, or Indian Ocean region.  The article argues that China has learned from the United States over the past several decades and will most likely use carriers to coerce and punish smaller powers.  Most importantly, the authors argue, they “will help China to overcome the limits of their own geography.”

Source:

Song Zhongping,“宋忠平：实现跨越式发展的中国新型航母003 (China’s New Aircraft Carrier 003 Achieves Leapfrog Development),” NetEase (a business and technology oriented Chinese website)20 June 2022. https://www.163.com/dy/article/HAACEBL40552AOD9.html

The Fujian is the first aircraft carrier to have an electromagnetic catapult launch systems (EMALS)…  Like the Shandong, the third aircraft carrier is completely developed and manufactured domestically.

The official displacement of the Fujian exceeds 80,000 tons, which is larger than both the Liaoning and Shandong ships…  The Fujian is also larger than America’s Kitty Hawk class, but smaller than the USS Ford, which has a full load displacement of 110,000 tons.

The Fujian has adopted so many innovative technologies, some of which are world-class.  For example, it is the first time a Chinese aircraft carrier uses EMALS…  The new carrier is able to house more types of carrier-based aircraft, such as the upgraded J-15 fighter and the new stealth J-35.  It will also carry the Air Police 600, a new type of early warning aircraft.

China developed its aircraft carriers for offshore operations and long-sea escort.

It should take another two years for the ship to become fully operational.

Suyash Desai, “What Does China’s New Aircraft Carrier Say About Its Technology and Strategy,” Noida News18 Online (Indian and English language news service based in Noida India.  International coverage provided by CNN while Indian and local news is a product of Indian Broadcast Network), 27 June 2022. https://www.news18.com/news/opinion/what-does-chinas-new-aircraft-carrier-say-about-its-technology-and-strategy-5447215.htmlfpo

China launched its third aircraft carrier this month.  The type 003, now named Fujian, is China’s biggest, most modern and most powerful aircraft carrier.  At 80,000 tons and 318 meters, the Fujian outstrips all but America’s supercarriers, the new USS Gerald R. Ford-class…

… Fujian is reported to have electromagnetic catapult launch systems (EMALS).  Its main advantage is that it accelerates the aircraft more smoothly, putting less stress on their airframes…  Fujian helps China catch up with the US…  However, like US carries, the Fujian will not be nuclear-powered, meaning its speed, endurance, and long-ranged operational capabilities would still be limited…

…Some authoritative Chinese reports suggest that China has already started the work for building the next aircraft carrier, Type 004, which could possibly be a nuclear-powered carrier.  However, there is no concrete evidence to support this claim.  It reportedly plans to have six aircraft carriers by 2049 to be a world-class force and become a blue water navy to protect and pursue overseas interests.China’s aircraft carriers are not designed for a Taiwan reunification campaign or to have a direct role in a conflict with big powers like the US or India in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea or Indian Ocean Region.  China is learning from the US’ use of carriers over the past several decades and is most likely to use them in coercing and punishing smaller powers in the near and far seas.  Also, a modern navy equipped with aircraft carriers gives China a power projection capability, which was previously unavailable to them.  But most importantly, the aircraft carriers will help China overcome the limits of their own geography.

Image Information:

Image: A J-15 carrier-based fighter aircraft is taking off from Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning (Type 001)
Source: Government of Japan, https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:A_PLAN_Shenyang_J-15_carrier-based_fighter_aircraft_is_taking_off_from_Chinese_aircraft_carrier_PLANS_Liaoning_%28CV-16%29_20220510.jpg
Attribution: CC BY 4.0

China To Reform Military Postgraduate Education

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“China is reshaping its military postgraduate system to make its armed forces “smarter,” including cultivating more technological talents…”

China’s Central Military Commission recently issued a document revealing that it will reshape military postgraduate education to make its armed forces “smarter.”  The new curriculum will include joint combat command, new type combat forces, high-level scientific and technological innovation, and high-level strategic management.  The accompanying article excerpts from Chinese sources provide some insight into this development.  China’s largest and most influential media source, Xinhua, reports that the document proposes creating a team of trainers with combat experience and improving standards to evaluate the quality of postgraduate education.  The document also emphasizes the importance of military postgraduate education in cultivating high-level military personnel, innovating military theory and national defense science and technology, and increasing combat effectiveness.  

South China Morning Post, Hong Kong’s most prominent online English daily, notes that the PLA expects the total number of students to remain steady.  However, the number of students enrolled in traditional military courses will decline while the number of students enrolled in new types of combat capability will increase.  Military recruitment will target students and graduates of science, engineering, and other skills necessary to prepare for war.  The article notes that the new emphasis on fostering military personnel with advanced technology backgrounds is part of China’s ongoing reforms intended to turn the People’s Liberation Army into a modern military force by 2027.  The article cites an earlier Xinhua report that said the enrollment of military postgraduates this year is intended to “closely meet the needs for war preparation and the development of new-type combat force talent.”

Source:

“中央军委办公厅印发《关于加快军队研究生教育改革发展的意见》(Opinions on Accelerating the Reform and Development of Military Postgraduate Education),” Xinhua (China’s largest and most influential media source), 23 May 2022. https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2022/05-23/9761542.shtml

The (document) focuses on training talent in joint combat command, new-type combat forces, high-level scientific and technological innovation, and high-level strategic management. It proposes reforms, such as strengthening the creation of a team of tutors who are knowledgeable in actual combat, and improving the standards of evaluating the quality of postgraduate education.

The (document) emphasizes (the idea) that military postgraduate education plays an important role in cultivating high-level military personnel, innovating military theory and national defense science and technology, and serving the combat effectiveness of the troops.

Source: Amber Wang, “China Pushes for Smarter Armed Forces with Education Shake Up On Path to Modern Military,” South China Morning Post (Hong Kong Chinese daily, once considered independent but now suspect of promoting China soft power abroad), 28 May 2022. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3179428/china-pushes-smarter-armed-forces-education-shake-path-modern;

Enrollment numbers would remain stable but would include more students of new types of combat and plans to train personnel in military intelligence and aerospace.

China is reshaping its military postgraduate system to make its armed forces “smarter,” including cultivating more technological talents, a newly issued document shows.

The new talent development plan, which focuses on fostering military personnel with advanced technology backgrounds and combat skills, is part of the massive ongoing reforms intended to turn the People’s Liberation Army into a modern military force by 2027.

An earlier Xinhua report said the plan for enrolling military postgraduates this year would “closely meet the needs for war preparation and the development of new-type combat force talent.”

Besides the postgraduate sector reform, the overall military recruitment this year will give priority to university students and graduates majoring in science and engineering, and those with the skills needed for war preparedness, according to a teleconference on conscription in January.

Chinese Observations on the Role and Impact of Social Media in Cognitive Warfare

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“Cognitive warfare through social media can directly interfere with relevant government decisions and influence the direction of the war.”

Drawing lessons from the war in Ukraine, Chinese military strategists see social media as a highly effective tool in both warfare and politics.  The accompanying excerpted article published in the nationalistic-leaning Chinese daily Huanqui Shibao notes that cognitive warfare is playing a historic role in shaping the war, which is the first time combatants have incorporated it into a large-scale physical conflict.  The author notes that cognitive warfare tactics such as “deepfakes” and “accelerationism” over social media deliberately manipulated the world’s emotions and collective consciousness to sway public opinion and exacerbate polarization.  He notes that social media has elevated the role and effectiveness of cognitive warfare to new heights.  It has interfered with government decisions and influenced the direction of the war.

According to the author, cognitive warfare extends beyond propaganda and psychological warfare.  It can be carried out in conjunction with both the physical and information domains.  It can be used in wartime or peacetime and on a daily basis.  It can be waged through public diplomacy, academic exchanges, culture and art, or simply hidden in seemingly innocuous areas such as social media.  The author also describes how cognitive warfare has evolved through technological advances.  The digital technology available during the 1991 Gulf War allowed round-the-clock, real-time televised coverage of wartime events as they unfolded.  This play-by-play coverage had a psychological impact on the entire world, which helped to shape the narrative, but not the outcome, of the war.  Three decades later social media is seen as a weapon in the Ukraine conflict.

Source:

Sun Jiashan, “俄乌冲突中认知战对我们的启示 (What Cognitive Warfare in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Teaches Us),” Global Times (daily newspaper known for its nationalistic take on world affairs), 10 March 2022. https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/477wrRCvjHx. 

The role and effectiveness of cognitive warfare based on social media in the Russia-Ukraine war has reached new historical heights since the 1991 Gulf War.

More than 30 years have passed since the 1991 Gulf War, but we still have a clear visual image of it because, for the first time in history, television media had followed it every step. The information technology that allowed round the clock digital broadcasting of modern warfare by the American television media had a great psychological impact on the entire world.

The 1991 Gulf War, despite near-live digital broadcasting of the war, (however), only offered a narrative of the war and had no direct impact on the war itself. The biggest difference between the role and effectiveness of the 1991 Gulf War and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is that the advent of social media has affected the media and directly impacting the war. Whether it was the so-called “Ghost of Kyiv,” in which it was eventually revealed that footage had been taken from an air combat simulation game at the beginning of the conflict… or the spreading of rumors such as the Nuclear leak of the Zaporozhye nuclear plant… “deepfake,” “accelerationism,” and other cognitive warfare tactics, which can impact cognition through social media, are now being applied in large-scale situations over the course of the war.

…cognitive warfare can no longer be simply seen as propaganda warfare and psychological warfare (as it was previously)…. Cognitive warfare through social media can directly interfere with relevant government decisions and influence the direction of the war. This has been a historical wake-up call for us by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

China and Taiwan Explain Key Differences Between Cross-Strait Relations and Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

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“We have seen that some people emphasize the principle of sovereignty on the Ukraine issue, but continue to undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity on the Taiwan question. This is a naked double standard.”

-Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked widespread concern that China could similarly invade Taiwan, although not everyone agrees with this analogy.  The accompanying passages from Chinese and Taiwanese sources consider the key differences between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China-Taiwan relations.

Two days before Russian forces invaded Ukraine, China’s Central News Agency released an article in which a high-level Taiwan national security official describes Taiwan as strategically located within the first island chain in East Asia, providing an important line of defense to keep communist forces “from crossing the first island chain and threatening the U.S. mainland.”  The article also argues that unlike Ukraine, which shares a common border with Russia, the Taiwan Strait offers a natural barrier between China and Taiwan, making it harder for communist forces to attack across the sea.  Finally, the article argues that Taiwan is critical to the development of automobiles, smart phones, wind power, and military equipment, which makes it more important than Ukraine to the international supply chain.  The article also states that China sought to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), arguing that “triggering boycott or sanctions by the CPTPP member states, which are mostly in the Indo-Pacific region, will not be something that China wants to see.”  The CPTPP is a free trade agreement between Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, New Zealand, Singapore, and Vietnam.

Four days after the invasion began, Taiwan’s only English-language newspaper, Taipei Times, published an article describing further differences between the Ukraine and Taiwan issues.  First, Taiwan “has the advantage of being a mountainous smattering of islands that have been building up defenses for decades.”  Next, the article opines that sanctions against China would likely have “a far more acute sting” due to the country’s economy heavy integration with the rest of the world.  Finally, like the first article, the author talks about the importance of Taiwan to the global supply chain.  According to this article, “The world relies on Taiwan for semiconductors, meaning that a Chinese invasion would at best disrupt supply and at worst rewrite the technological and geopolitical world order.”  In comparing the two leaders, the article describes Russian President Vladimir Putin as a tyrant in charge, who fears his time is running out, and Chinese President Xi Jinping as more calculating and prudent and who believes he only has to wait.  Despite these arguments, the second article warns, “no one can predict the calculations happening in the halls of power, and as the Ukraine crisis has shown, anything is possible.”  The article ends on a note for the people of Taiwan to be prepared. 

Chinese sources, such as the third article, published by China’s official English-language news outlet, China Daily, explain that the situation in Ukraine involves a dispute between two sovereign countries, whereas the question of Taiwan is a domestic matter.  However, the article also warns that while Beijing will try to unify Taiwan with the mainland peacefully, the central government will never exclude taking military action as an option.

Source:

Wen Kui-hsiang, “國安高層：台海與俄烏情勢三大不同 嚴防中國認知戰 (High-Level National Security Official: Three Major Differences Between Taiwan Strait Situation and the Russia-Ukraine Situation; Guarding Against China’s Cognitive Warfare),” Taipei Chung-yang T’ung-hsun-she (The Republic of China’s central news agency), 22 February 2022. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202202220333.aspx

 First, in terms of geostrategy, Taiwan is in the first island chain in East Asia, which is extremely important for the United States to containing the expansion of China’s communist forces and for maintaining the military, commercial and shipping security of the Indo-Pacific region. It is an important defense line to prevent the communist forces from crossing the first island chain and threatening the U.S. mainland.

 Second, the geographical environment is very different, and the U.S. commitment to cross-Strait security is clear and firm. The senior national security officials said that unlike Ukraine, which is close to Russia, the natural barrier formed by the Taiwan Strait makes it far more difficult for the Communist forces to cross the sea and attack Taiwan than it is for Russia to invade Ukraine. Moreover, the United States is more interested in the Indo-Pacific region, having U.S. military deployed there, whereas the Russia-Ukraine conflict has a limited impact on U.S. military deployment.

 Third, the importance to the international supply chain is very different. Taiwan holds a key position in the international supply chain for post-pandemic recovery. According to a senior national security official, Taiwan’s economic strength and high-tech industries…are crucial to the development of global industries, such as automobiles, smartphones, wind power generation, and armaments. Even China cannot escape Taiwan’s industrial impact.

 …China is also seeking to join the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership). At this time, unilaterally triggering disputes, boycotts, or sanctions by the CPTPP member states, which are mostly located in the Indo-Pacific region, is not be something that China wants to see.

 Source: “Taiwan is Different from Ukraine,” Taipei Times (Taiwan’s only English-language newspaper and which aims to give Taiwan’s perspective to the international community), 28 February 2022. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2022/03/01/2003773950

 First and most evident, Ukraine shares a long land border with its bellicose neighbor, while Taiwan has the advantage of being a mountainous smattering of islands that have been building up defenses for decades. Ukraine was caught off-guard when Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and has been playing catch-up ever since. Most experts are confident that invading Taiwan would be immensely lengthy and costly for China, with no guarantee of success — especially with US involvement.

Sanctions against China would also likely have a far more acute sting, given its massive economy’s integration with the rest of the world. Beijing will certainly be watching closely to see how far countries are willing to go in sanctioning Russia, and adjust its risk calculation accordingly.

Perhaps most importantly, Taiwan is of critical economic interest to the countries poised to take action in its defense. The world relies on Taiwan for semiconductors, meaning that a Chinese invasion would at best disrupt supply and at worst rewrite the technological and geopolitical world order.

As unfathomable as it might seem to ignore these immense risks, Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown the world that when a tyrant is in charge, the war room is always open. Yet Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is not the same as Putin, and neither are their countries.

 Source: “Tsai Ing-wen’s Empathy For Ukraine Ridiculous,” China Daily (China’s official English-language news), 24 February 2022. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202202/24/WS62177fafa310cdd39bc88c12.html

What is happening between Ukraine and Russia is a dispute between two sovereign countries. The question of Taiwan is an internal affair of China…

The mainland will try whatever it can to seek the peaceful reunification of the island, which it believes is in the interest of the Chinese people across the Strait. But military action is always an option the central government will never exclude.

Chinese Brigade Makes Improvements to Command Information System

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“The battlefield situation changes constantly.  …The difference between victory or defeat can occur within a millisecond.”

A brigade in China’s 71st Group Army reportedly has upgraded and perfected its command information system, improving speed and accuracy in firepower response time.  The accompanying article, published in the official newspaper of the People’s Liberation Army, Jiefangjun Bao, explains that the command-and-control software originally issued to the brigade was limited and inadequate.  There were delays in coordination between detachments, which affected the firepower response time.  According to the article, to improve the overall function of the command information system, leaders within the brigade assembled a team of key personnel with technical specialties.  Experts from factories and scientific communities also participated.  The new upgraded command information system allows real-time data sharing and precise air defense and targeting.  If the report is accurate, the effort demonstrates the effectiveness of President Xi Jinping’s push to foster an environment of independent innovation at all levels.  There is no mention in the article about whether the PLA will distribute the improved system to other brigades.  However, according to a brigade commander mentioned in the article, they will continue to strengthen the development of information systems, explore and innovate combat methods and training methods, and further strengthen the troops’ expert capabilities in winning modern wars.

Source:

Liu Renhao and Gao Junfeng, “数据共享提升体系作战能力第七十一集团军某旅升级完善指挥信息系统 (Brigade in 71st Group Army Upgrades, Perfects Command Information System, Data Sharing Boots ‘Systems of Systems’ Operations Capability,” Jiefangjun Bao (PLA Daily, the official newspaper of the PLA), 14 February 2022. http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2022-02/14/content_309298.htm

…By upgrading and improving the command information system, this brigade shortened the firepower response time, effectively enhancing the unit’s combat power.

Previously, a command and control software was provided to the brigade. However, after several combat-realistic drills, troops found that, due to the limited capabilities of the command information system, delays appeared during information transmission, easily leading to situations where coordination between detachments was lacking and delays occurred with respect to firepower response.

“The battlefield situation changes constantly. In the blink of an eye, and the difference between victory or defeat can occur within a millisecond.”

“Real-time data sharing provides technical support for ‘system of systems’ operations and joint operations.” The brigade’s commander explained that in the next step, they will continue to strengthen the development of information systems, explore and innovate combat methods and training methods, and further temper the troops’ expert capabilities in winning modern wars.

Chinese AI Researchers Claim Success in Teaching Drones To Win Dogfights

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“A main focus of the Chinese military AI program is to develop new algorithms that can get high performance out of a slow computer.”

The accompanying excerpt from the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) references a report published in the Chinese peer-review journal, Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, that researchers have developed an artificial intelligence (AI) system capable of teaching Chinese combat drones how “to win dogfights thousands of times faster than comparable American technology.”  According to the researchers, the ability to learn at a higher speed could help drones to identify a human pilot’s “cheating maneuvers” and outperform them in complex, large-scale air combat.  They put the system to the test by simulating combat between a drone and a test fighter.  The researchers claim that after conducting 800,000 simulations, the drone was able to win most of its encounters.  They compared the results to a “similar dogfight competition conducted in the United States in 2020,” which they say took more than 4 billion rounds of training to achieve the same result.  The test took place in Jianyang, Sichuan Province, at the Aerodynamics Research and Development Center, the largest research and testing institute of aerodynamics in China. The SCMP article notes the growing role of drones in defense, explaining that most military drones are designed for surveillance, early warning, communications, or attack.  They normally cannot handle the sophisticated, fast-paced action needed in a dogfight, which requires more calculation and swifter movement since their computer chips are slower and possess more conservative technology.  The AI program’s focus is to develop new algorithms that increase performance rate.

Source:

Stephen Chen, “Chinese AI Team Claims Big Win in Battle to Teach Dogfights to Drones,” South China Morning Post (Hong Kong’s most prominent online English-language daily), 30 January 2022. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3165330/chinese-ai-team-claims-big-win-battle-teach-dogfights-drones.

Researchers in southwest China say they developed an artificial intelligence system that can teach Chinese combat drones to win dogfights thousands of times faster than comparable American technology.

The (US) Heron system defeated the pilots in all five dogfights, taking more than 4 billion rounds of “training” to achieve the result.

The researchers in Sichuan said their system took just 800,000 simulations to win most of its encounters.

Huang said that their new AI system was selective, choosing only the best data for the next round.

Most military drones have been designed for surveillance, early warning, communications or to attack ground targets. These systems cannot handle fast-paced, sophisticated actions such as dogfights because an enormous amount of calculation must be done quickly, according to some military researchers.A main focus of the Chinese military AI program is to develop new algorithms that can get high performance out of a slow computer.

China Issues Fifth Mobilization Order To Kick Off Annual Military Training

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“Chairman Xi Jinping issued a mobilization order to the entire armed forces to begin training in the new year, clearly requiring that “[troops] comprehensively advance the transformation and upgrade of military training, resulting in elite forces capable of fighting and winning.”

The accompanying article published by the Central Military Commission’s (CMC) official newspaper Jiefangjun Bao is a possible indication of a heightened level of urgency and war preparedness in China.  The article discusses a training competition that the 82nd Group Army held in early 2022, with higher requirements and more rigorous standards.  This marks the fifth year in a row that President Xi Jinping, Chairman of the CMC, has issued a mobilization order to kick off military training.  These exercises have become more refined and high tech, adding cutting-edge technologies such as big data, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and artificial intelligence on the frontline of training.  They have introduced advanced simulators, including bio-simulation and virtual reality technologies, which simulate various types of combat injuries, creating a more realistic combat scenario. 

According to Jiefangjun Bao, participants broke 16 training records during the competition.  The article attributes some of the records to new processes, technologies, and equipment, such as new command-and-control equipment that has been in service for just over a year.  A system of rewards and punishment, meant to increase the soldiers’ level of confidence and motivation, is also in place.  While the article focuses on the specific exercise of only one group army, it describes the training activities as “a microcosm of troops from the entire armed forces obeying Chairman Xi’s orders and focusing on military training.”

Source:

Geng Tao and Zhou Yuan, “第82集团军某旅群众性练兵比武拉开新年度训练序幕——奖牌之争折射训练之变 (Mass Training and Competition Held by 82nd Group Army Brigade Kicks off the New Year of Training),” Jiefangjun Bao (People’s Liberation Army Daily. The official newspaper of the Central Military Commission), 20 January 2022. https://www.81.cn/sydbt/2022-01/20/content_10124683.htm

At the beginning of the new year, Chairman Xi issued a mobilization order to the entire armed forces to begin training in the new year, clearly requiring that “[troops] comprehensively advance the transformation and upgrade of military training, resulting in elite forces capable of fighting and winning.” This was the fifth year in a row that Chairman Xi has issued a mobilization order to kick off training, sounding a contemporary bugle call for troop training and war preparedness, and undoubtedly advancing the military training of our armed forces toward a new stage of all-round transformation and overall improvement. The gratifying scene that took place on the competition ground of a certain brigade of the 82nd Group Army was a microcosm of troops from the entire armed forces obeying Chairman Xi’s orders and focusing on military training. At a new starting point in the new year, units throughout the armed forces must use higher requirements and more rigorous standards to continue to set in motion a wave of enthusiasm for combat-realistic military training, and greet the opening of the 19th Party Congress with high spirits and first-rate training results.

On the competition ground, while operating a new command and control equipment that had been in service for only a little over a year, Staff Sergeant Xie Kun was the first to complete the subject [of competition] and set a new record. Faced with multiple obstacles, heavy equipment transport vehicle driver Zhao Pengcheng drove the vehicle with speed and broke the training record that had been maintained at the brigade for many years…  At the beginning of the new year, a certain brigade of the 82nd Group Army held a mass training and skills competition, unfurling the curtain on the new year’s training. One after another, officers and soldiers broke 16 training records of the brigade.

… The combat-realistic level of the units’ training has been constantly rising. Many gratifying changes were taking place on the training ground.

… Last year, the brigade introduced bio-simulation and virtual reality technologies to simulate various types of combat injuries, making battlefield rescue training more closely adhere to actual combat.

… the brigade took the initiative to apply cutting-edge technologies such as big data, UAVs, and artificial intelligence on the frontlines of training. It upgraded and rebuilt eight new-type training fields, set up terminals for military vocational education and study, and established multiple types of high-tech training facilities that adhere closely to [the requirements of] actual combat. Multiple training courses on dangerous and difficult subjects can be carried out in all weather conditions and in high efficiency.

… This brigade focused on training and combat readiness to establish a reward and punishment mechanism. More than 90 percent of the meritorious service indicators were used for military training, allowing training elites to be commended and to receive rewards. This [mechanism] motivated officers and soldiers to actively exert efforts to fight and win on the battlefield. Since its establishment, the brigade has participated in various types of military skills competitions organized by the higher-ups and won 38 first place awards.