President Vladimir Putin held talks in Beijing with President of China Xi Jinping, Feb 2022.

“China is interested in the military weakening of both Russia and the West…”

In the accompanying article from the semi-independent Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obezreniye, respected military expert Alexander Khramchikhin provides a thought-provoking assessment of how China looks at its relationship with Russia within its wider foreign policy.  The author asserts that “in economic terms, China is using Russia’s problems to the maximum extent, trying to get it to lower prices for supplied energy resources.”  The Chinese leadership understands that it cannot fully side with Russia in its war on Ukraine because “it is more important for Beijing to maintain economic relations with the West than to provide assistance to Russia.”  The author downplays the military side of the China-Russia relationship, claiming that the “measures were more of a demonstrative propagandistic nature.”  He points out that while “Beijing’s political position is no longer neutral, but pro-Russian,” it is mostly “at the level of the rhetoric of officials and China’s votes in the UN.”  Despite Beijing’s vocal support, the author points out that “China supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine, sends humanitarian aid to this country and calls for a political resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict by respecting the interests of both sides.” The author claims that “China is interested in the military weakening of both Russia and the West.”  He points out that it is to China’s advantage if the conflict is prolonged, which will lead to “maximum exhaustion of both sides.”  Such an outcome will make it easier for Chinese leaders to cut favorable political and economic deals with an “exhausted Russia.”  Similarly, an “exhausted West will lose many levers of pressure on China, which, in particular, will allow Beijing to solve the issue of joining Taiwan much easier.”

Source:

Alexander Khramchikhin, “Кому быть младшим партнером (Who will be the junior partner),” Nezasimoye Voennoye Obezreniye (semi-independent Russian media source), 23 June 2022. https://nvo.ng.ru/gpolit/2022-06-23/10_1194_partner.html

What will the Chinese choice of Russia lead to?  …The thesis that China is a true friend of Russia, ready to lend a helping hand to it in any difficult situation, is taken for granted by many citizens of our country.  Although this thesis never had almost any practical confirmation, it does not have them even now.

…In economic terms, China is using Russia’s problems to the maximum extent, trying to get it to lower prices for supplied energy resources.  At the same time, many Chinese companies de facto complied with the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the West, since it was more important for them to preserve not the Russian, but the Western markets….   This means that it is more important for Beijing to maintain economic relations with the West than to provide assistance to Russia.

In the military sphere, several major bilateral and multilateral exercises were held with the participation of the Russian Armed Forces and the PLA, as well as several joint patrols of the Russian and Chinese Air Forces near Japan.  These measures were more of a demonstrative propagandistic nature….

…The current conflict in Ukraine has actually become a continuation of the events of 2014, taking into account the general change in the situation in the world.  Today, Beijing’s political position is no longer neutral, but pro-Russian – however, again, only at the level of the rhetoric of officials and China’s votes in the UN.  At the same time, however, China stands for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, sends humanitarian aid to this country and calls for a political resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict by respecting the interests of both sides….

In the economic sphere, China is acting in exactly the same way as in 2014 and in subsequent years: it seeks to make the most of Russia’s problems, seeking to reduce prices for Russian energy resources.  At the same time, Chinese companies de facto comply with almost all new anti-Russian sanctions, since Western markets are still more important for them.  Moreover, some Chinese companies are refusing to buy Russian oil and coal even at reduced prices….

Of course, Chinese military experts will carefully study the military operations of both sides – and again draw conclusions for themselves.  China is interested in the military weakening of both Russia and the West…

Accordingly, China is not interested in either a quick victory for Russia or its defeat.  From all points of view, it is beneficial for China to prolong the conflict to the maximum and to have a compromise outcome, caused by the maximum exhaustion of both sides.  An exhausted Russia will be much more accommodating towards China on all economic and political issues.  The exhausted West will lose many levers of pressure on China, which, in particular, will allow Beijing to solve the issue of joining Taiwan much easier and easier….

…The transformation of Russia into a junior partner (if not a direct vassal) of China is possible if the war in Ukraine drags on for a long time and turns out to be, if not a failure, then generally unsuccessful for Moscow.  Such a scenario also seems unlikely so far….  The evolution of Russian-Chinese relations into a direct and open military-political alliance is possible if Russia wins a victory in Ukraine (full or partial).  At the same time, the West will continue to increase pressure on both Moscow and Beijing…. 

In any case, the current situation once again confirms that Beijing always acts solely in its own interests.  Which is absolutely right – this is how a normal country should behave.  It’s just that Chinese interests do not always coincide with ours.

China will never be our friend.  And he will extend a helping hand to us only if he receives something very significant and valuable from our hand in return.

Image Information:

Image: President Vladimir Putin held talks in Beijing with President of China Xi Jinping, Feb 2022
Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67712
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